Small Wars Journal

09/05/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Sat, 09/05/2020 - 2:16pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. ROK/US combined training protects integrity of the OPCON transition process

2. U.S. non-profit organization, training experts on North Korean Human Rights

3. Simon Wiesenthal Center Urges YouTube to Delete Korean Language Holocaust Denial Screed

4. China complicit in bypassing UN sanctions to launder North Korean money, report suggests

5. Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia

6. Sinpo South Shipyard: Preparations for a Pukguksong-3 SLBM Test?

7. North Korean dissident calls out China for enabling brutal regime

8. Why U.S.-North Korea Diplomacy is Dead for This Year

9. Does Kim Jong Un want Trump or Biden?

10. The Dangerous North Korea (book reviews)

11. Seoul wants to defend North Korea human rights, reports say

12. Killing of NK leader's brother and others require U.S. review on chemical weapons: CRS 

13. Concerns over Chuseok holiday amid rising COVID-19 curve

14. New virus cases stay below 200 for 3rd day in S. Korea in 'positive' sign

15. Typhoon Haishen may skirt eastern coast of S. Korea, bring heavy rains

16. Abuse of power has become the norm in Moon's South Korea

17. North Korea officials to be punished after typhoon causes 'dozens of casualties'

 

 

1. ROK/US combined training protects integrity of the OPCON transition process

militarytimes.com · by David Maxwell · September 5, 2020

My latest OpEd.

2. U.S. non-profit organization, training experts on North Korean Human Rights

VOA Korea · by Jang Yanghee · August 29, 2020

Important effort by HRNK.  Our Director, Greg Scarlatoiu, is a great American doing great work for an important mission. (truth in advertising I am a member of the Board of Directors of HRNK). (And again, this is reporting that is probably unique to the Korean service of Voice of America).  The article is translated from Korean by Emily Spaugh, HRNK Research Intern, as it was only broadcast in Korean to the Korean peninsula.

3. Simon Wiesenthal Center Urges YouTube to Delete Korean Language Holocaust Denial Screed

wiesenthal.com · September 3, 2020

I hope YouTube takes action. It is interesting that North Korea would use this kind of propaganda.  Who is the target audience for this kind of propaganda and what effect are they trying to achieve?  I am sure it is somehow connected to trying to somehow shift the focus from the regime's horrendous human rights abuses and crimes against humanity and perhaps trying to lay the groundwork to say that all the accusations against North Korea are lies). 

The video (in Korean) is still online with 138,000 views since August 28 and 1296 comments and many of the comments are supportive (but in Koreas)

4. China complicit in bypassing UN sanctions to launder North Korean money, report suggests

The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith

This should be absolutely no surprise. There are three reasons for this. First is the three "No's" - China wants no war, no regime instability and collapse, and no nukes. It is batting .600.  But China wants to maintain the status quo on the peninsula and does not want North Korea to either initiate war or become unstable and that is more important than North Korea having nukes. Second, China is not interested in solving the ROK/US security problem vis a vis north Korea.  Third, there is probably money to be made for China.

5. Abe Ruined the Most Important Democratic Relationship in Asia

Foreign Policy · by S. Nathan Park · September 4, 2020

Strong critique here. I still say the only way to address this critical relationship is for the Korean and Japanese leaders to exercise decisive leadership and agree to make national security and national prosperity the priority while they agree to manage the historical issues. It will require leadership to quell the domestic political pressures in their own countries.

6. Sinpo South Shipyard: Preparations for a Pukguksong-3 SLBM Test?

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · September 4, 2020

Will this be an October surprise?  Is this the new strategic weapon?  Will this be an early or late Christman gift (per the regime's threat from last year).

7. North Korean dissident calls out China for enabling brutal regime

New York Post · by Ebony Bowden · September 4, 2020

Mrs. Park is on a roll calling out both North Korea and China. The rest of the world needs to do so.

8. Why U.S.-North Korea Diplomacy is Dead for This Year

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · September 4, 2020

There is no silver bullet. There is no quick fix. The onus is on Kim Jong-un. He has chosen not to negotiate. If we think that giving him concessions will change is behavior, we have not been paying attention. We only will justify his blackmail diplomacy by doing so.

I will tell you this simpleton (me) does not think Kim Jong-un is unpredictable and incapable of reason. He is very capable of reason in the context of his nature, culture, history, and strategy as handed down from his father and grandfather.  But he is the head of a mafia-like crime family cult who seeks to dominate the Korean peninsula and is executing his long con to get relief from sanctions while keeping his nuclear weapons and missiles. So Mr. DePetris, by all means call me a simpleton.

9. Does Kim Jong Un want Trump or Biden?

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · September 4, 2020

Does it matter?  While he may make tactical adjustments depending on who is president his strategy and objectives will not change.

This is an interesting assessment. I am skeptical.

10. The Dangerous North Korea (book reviews)

The New York Times · by Gordon G. Chang · September 4, 2020

Gordon Chang provides thought provoking reviews of three recent books on North Korea.  I have read Pak's (which I think is excellent) but not Hanley's or Panda's.  Since Panda's book addresses Kim's command and control of his nuclear weapons I will have to read it.  And Hanley's provides another interesting look at the Korean War.

11. Seoul wants to defend North Korea human rights, reports say

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

This is very good to hear. I hope the Ministry of Unification does get aggressive.  It is a moral imperative and national security issue. Kim Jong-un cannot be allowed to deny (and abuse) the human rights of the Korean people living in the north in order to remain in power.

12. Killing of NK leader's brother and others require U.S. review on chemical weapons: CRS 

en.yna.co.kr · by Byun Duk-kun · September 5, 2020

North Korea and Russia conduct assassination by chemical weapons. They must be held accountable.

The CRS 3 page report can be downloaded here.

13. Concerns over Chuseok holiday amid rising COVID-19 curve

donga.com · September 5, 2020

I am sure Korea is worried. It will be interesting to see how much travel actually and how many family gatherings take place and how much the virus may be spread.

14. New virus cases stay below 200 for 3rd day in S. Korea in 'positive' sign

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · September 5, 2020

15. Typhoon Haishen may skirt eastern coast of S. Korea, bring heavy rains

en.yna.co.kr · by 남광식 · September 5, 2020

If those heavy rains hit North Korea it will just compound the growing humanitarian disaster.

16. Abuse of power has become the norm in Moon's South Korea

Al Jazeera English · by Hyung-A Kim

Not a good look for President Moon.

17. North Korea officials to be punished after typhoon causes 'dozens of casualties'

The Guardian · by Agence France-Presse · September 5, 2020

The nature of the Kim family regime exposed.

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 "First, have a definite, clear practical ideal; a goal, an objective. Second, have the necessary means to achieve your ends. Third, adjust all your means to that end." 

- Aristotle

 

   "I have been impressed with the urgency of doing. Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Being willing is not enough; we must do." 

- Leonardo da Vinci

 

 "There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." 

- Roger Staubach

 

09/04/2020 News and Commentary- National Security

Fri, 09/04/2020 - 12:41pm

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Andrew Narloch

 

1. Allies and Former U.S. Officials Fear Trump Could Seek NATO Exit in a Second Term

2. Covid-19 has shown the world is not prepared for potential bioweapons 

3. Prospects unclear for U.S. push for NATO-like anti-China mechanism in Indo-Pacific region

4. Terror and Technology From Dynamite to Drones

5. The Marines Are Pumping Millions into a High-Tech Wargaming Center. Here's Why

6. Wargaming Cyber Security

7. The Cold War lives on in Asia 

8. The Making of a Real American Diplomat

9. NTSB: ‘Unexplained’ Course Change Was ‘A Critical Error’ in Fatal USS Fitzgerald Collision

10. FDD | U.S. Needs a New ICC Strategy

11. FDD | Protection from China’s Comprehensive National Power Requires Comprehensive National Defense

12. US Special Operations Command gets first brand-new Chinook variant

13. The Pentagon has ordered Stars and Stripes to shut down for no good reason

14. China’s Population To Drop By Half, Immigration Helps U.S. Labor Force

15. Troops: White nationalism a national security threat equal to ISIS, al-Qaida

16. Over 90 percent of protests this summer were peaceful, report shows

17. Statement from the OPCW Director-General on Allegations of Chemical Weapons Use Against Alexei Navalny

18. Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club

 

1. Allies and Former U.S. Officials Fear Trump Could Seek NATO Exit in a Second Term

The New York Times · by Michael Crowley · September 3, 2020

This cannot  be so.   I am sure cooler heads will prevail and prevent any rash decision that could have far reaching negative national security effects for the US.

 

2. Covid-19 has shown the world is not prepared for potential bioweapons 

capx.co · September 2, 2020

This has been a dress rehearsal.  Have we learned from it?  How are our actions being assessed by our adversaries?  Do they assess vulnerabilities they can exploit some day with a bioweapon?

 

3. Prospects unclear for U.S. push for NATO-like anti-China mechanism in Indo-Pacific region

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 4, 2020

Some Koreans are concerned about being caught in the middle between China and the US. Other Koreans know the ROK has already made the "choice" between China and the US in October 1953 when the Mutual Defense Treaty was signed.

 

4. Terror and Technology From Dynamite to Drones

warontherocks.com · by T. X. Hammes · September 4, 2020

Two great Americans: T.X. Hammes and Audrey Kurth Cronin.  Another book for my reading pile.

 

5. The Marines Are Pumping Millions into a High-Tech Wargaming Center. Here's Why

military.com · by Gina Harkins · September 3, 2020

 

6. Wargaming Cyber Security

warontherocks.com · by Benjamin Schechter · September 4, 2020

A lot on war games these days.  Some people have an aversion to the use of the term war games.

 

7. The Cold War lives on in Asia 

DW · by Deutsche Welle

Major differences between Europe and Asia.  It does not bode well for a security architecture in Asia.

 

8. The Making of a Real American Diplomat

Afsa.org -BY JULIE CHUNG

A great story about another great American.  This is why immigration is so important to our country and what makes our country great.

 

9. NTSB: ‘Unexplained’ Course Change Was ‘A Critical Error’ in Fatal USS Fitzgerald Collision

news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · September 3, 2020

I will leave it to all my SWO friends to assess.

 

10. FDD | U.S. Needs a New ICC Strategy

fdd.org · by Orde Kittrie Senior Fellow · September 3, 2020

Key point:  "The United States can more effectively attempt to block the ICC’s illegitimate investigations by building on bipartisan support at home and leveraging common ground with allies. The United States should emphasize that potential ICC steps forthcoming in 2020 that are hostile to American interests could cause damage to the court’s relationship with the United States that would outlast the current administration."

 

11. FDD | Protection from China’s Comprehensive National Power Requires Comprehensive National Defense

fdd.org · by Cleo Paskal Non-Resident Senior Fellow · September 2, 2020

 

12. US Special Operations Command gets first brand-new Chinook variant

Defense News · by Jen Judson · September 2, 2020

 

13. The Pentagon has ordered Stars and Stripes to shut down for no good reason

USA Today · by Kathy Kiely, Opinion contributor

What will the north Koreans say?  We used to provide them copies of the Stars and Stripes every day at the JSA. I wonder if we still do.  I recall a north Korean spy who was captured in Pyeongtaek back in about 1996.  He was posing as a professor from the Philippines.  He was caught faxing material about the stationing of the 6th Cavalry Brigade (attack helos) at Camp Humphreys. The information he was caught faxing were clippings from the Stars and Stripes articles which were provided to the north Koreans at JSA.

 

14. China’s Population To Drop By Half, Immigration Helps U.S. Labor Force

Forbes · by Stuart Anderson · September 3, 2020

Immigration has always been one of America's great advantages.  We will not sustain an effective working-age population without it.

 

15. Troops: White nationalism a national security threat equal to ISIS, al-Qaida

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · September 3, 2020

The military is a microcosm of society.  And the headline should have included and greater than north Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq.  But I am sure we will hear the intellectually bankrupt "fake news" to describe this.

 

16. Over 90 percent of protests this summer were peaceful, report shows

The Hill · by Zack Budryk · September 3, 2020

Again I am hearing the intellectual bankrupt concept of fake news in the background.

 

17. Statement from the OPCW Director-General on Allegations of Chemical Weapons Use Against Alexei Navalny

Opcw.org

 

18. Germany Joins the ‘Indo-Pacific’ Club

thediplomat.com · by Sebastian Strangio · September 3, 2020

Interesting development and I hope some good news (especially as noted in the subtitle).

 

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"Mistakes are the portals of discovery."

- James Joyce

"Be curious, not judgmental."

- Walt Whitman

"A great leader treats people with respect even when they present different opinions. Without a variety of views and opinions, we would have no innovation or creativity in our nation. Being a bully and being strong are not the same thing. Being strong is standing up for your convictions. Being a bully is trying to intimidate those who are perceived to be weaker or a threat.” 

- Rick Snyder



 

9/4/2020 News and Commentary-Korea

Fri, 09/04/2020 - 11:53am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Andrew Narloch

 

1. Prospects unclear for U.S. push for NATO-like anti-China mechanism in Indo-Pacific region

2. N.K. unlikely to seek engagement with Seoul until next year's campaign season: ex-USFK commander

3.  U.N. special rapporteur calls for N. Korea's release of political prisoners

4. U.S. flies spy aircraft over S. Korea ahead of N. Korea's founding anniversary

5. S. Korea must consider both security, economy: Amb. Lee

6. Moon's adviser calls for 'six-party security summit' to discuss N.K. nuclear issue

7. Top nuclear envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on N.K. nuclear issue

8. North Korea Uses a Former COVID-19 Scapegoat in Propaganda For Kim Jong Un

9. S. Korea mulls redeeming money given to WFP for stalled N.K. rice provision project

10. S. Korea to extend tougher anti-virus curbs in greater Seoul for another week

11. Australia chooses Korean gun for W1T deal

12. NK stole up to $2b by hacking financial networks: report

13.  FDD | Justice Department Provides Roadmap to Escalate Pressure on North Korean Cybercrime

14. Live from Pyongyang: North Korea state media tests new formats on air and online

15. N.K. premier urges fast recovery from flooding, better preparation against another storm

16. North Korean defector describes hellish life inside rogue regime

17. Behold South Korea's Very Expensive Stealth Fighter

18. S. Korea to set up 20 tln-won fund for New Deal projects


 

1. Prospects unclear for U.S. push for NATO-like anti-China mechanism in Indo-Pacific region

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 4, 2020

Some Koreans are concerned about being caught in the middle between China and the US. Other Koreans know the ROK has already made the "choice" between China and the US in October 1953 when the Mutual Defense Treaty was signed.

2. N.K. unlikely to seek engagement with Seoul until next year's campaign season: ex-USFK commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · September 3, 2020

I am hoping I am misinterpreting the General's words but it seems like he may favor some lifting of sanctions.

3.  U.N. special rapporteur calls for N. Korea's release of political prisoners

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 4, 2020

Yes we should all be pressuring north Korea to release ALL it's political prisoners but I would not invoke a  Venezuela example as rationale for doing so.

 

4. U.S. flies spy aircraft over S. Korea ahead of N. Korea's founding anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · September 4, 2020

A prudent move.  We should note the October 10 anniversary founding of the Party is more important than the founding of the nation. We should ponder the meaning of that.  The major celebration will take place on October 10th and around that time is when we might see some major activity to include a missile test.  But again it is a good idea to be vigilant around this lesser anniversary.  We also need to see if the nKPA has resumed training and to what extent or if it is committed to disaster relief and still preparing for the October 10th parade!

 

5. S. Korea must consider both security, economy: Amb. Lee

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 4, 2020

The ambassador is trying to walk the tightrope. However, this will turn off Americans while it makes the CCP happy.  But if the PRC continues on its current path South Korea is going to have to choose not between the PRC and US but between value systems and ideology - an authoritarian government and surveillance state system, rule by law, state controlled economy and the denial of human rights versus a individual freedom and liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law and human rights. Great Power Competition is at its root an ideological war.

South Korea deathly fears the economic warfare the PRC will conduct if it joins the Quad Plus and supports the US strategy of a Free and OPen Indo-Pacific.  The economic warfare the PRC conducted following the THAAD deployment can be considered a gentle warning for what might come.  From a US perspective we should consider how we would help our ally defend against such economic warfare if we want the South to align with us in an Arsenal or Alliance of Democracies (which is what I would like to call the Quad Plus).  Our failure to help our ally defend itself from economic warfare will drive it toward the PRC.

 

6. Moon's adviser calls for 'six-party security summit' to discuss N.K. nuclear issue

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 4, 2020

How did that work out last time? (okay, Moon Chung-in does admit failure)  This time we would see the PRC and Russia firmly aligned with north Korea and Japan and the US on the other side and South Korea trying to split the difference and somehow mediate.  The problem is the PRC and Russia may welcome this as another line of effort to split the ROK/US alliance (which of course benefits north Korea as well). 

 

7. Top nuclear envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on N.K. nuclear issue

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 4, 2020

Always a positive sign when we have Korea and Japan talking and place national security and national prosperity above historical issues.

 

8. North Korea Uses a Former COVID-19 Scapegoat in Propaganda For Kim Jong Un

rfa.org

I think the Propaganda and Agitation department continues to shape the information environment for the eventual revelation there is a coronavirus outbreak in the north and to place the blame on the South.  This will be used to support coercion and extortion of the South for aid on the regime's terms.

 

9. S. Korea mulls redeeming money given to WFP for stalled N.K. rice provision project

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 3, 2020

An interesting development.

We should not be misled by this statement: "The plan, however, has since been stalled as the North rejected the assistance offer in protest over joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States."  Even if we cancelled the training and did not conduct any other training the regime would still make an excuse not to engage.  When some people read statements such as this one they react with the misguided and ill-informed belief we should stop all training to allow diplomacy to work. 

 

10. S. Korea to extend tougher anti-virus curbs in greater Seoul for another week

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · September 4, 2020

South Korea must remain aggressive in its fight to contain the coronavirus. 

 

11. Australia chooses Korean gun for W1T deal

Koreajoongangdaily.joins.com- BY SHIM KYU-SEOK

Interesting development and of course a big win for the Korean defense industry.

 

12. NK stole up to $2b by hacking financial networks: report

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · September 4, 2020

Here is the Korea Herald depending on Voice of America reports which effectively explained US analysis, positions, and activities.  Note the Korean press does not always give credit to the Korean services of VOA and Radio Free Asia for the information it uses.  Some may think this could be considered circular reporting but the reporting is based on the foundation of good journalism at VOA/RFA.

 

13.  FDD | Justice Department Provides Roadmap to Escalate Pressure on North Korean Cybercrime

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha Research Analyst · September 2, 2020

From my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

14. Live from Pyongyang: North Korea state media tests new formats on air and online

ca.reuters.com · by Josh Smith

We often chuckle at north Korean propaganda and some of the over the reporting and rhetoric (and presentation by news reader [or screamer] Ri Chun-hee).

But the regime and its propaganda and Agitation Department is moving into the 21st Century and it has realized it can exploit new tools and ways of getting its internal and external propaganda out.

 

15. N.K. premier urges fast recovery from flooding, better preparation against another storm

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 3, 2020

More "urging" or stronger "urging" to accomplish things faster is not an effective course of action for dealing with natural and humanitarian disasters.  But I guess when that is all you have you have to use it.  I am reminded of the SERE school chants we had to use when performing our prison work of raking the gravel and other mindless tasks (based on old communist prison camp life): "work harder, work faster, work more quicklier."

 

16. North Korean defector describes hellish life inside rogue regime

New York Post · by Ebony Bowden · September 3, 2020

We all think about the tragedy of having been born and living in north Korea.  I would say Yeonmi Park lives the Stoic philosophy. 

 

17. Behold South Korea's Very Expensive Stealth Fighter

Forbes · by David Axe · September 3, 2020

 

18. S. Korea to set up 20 tln-won fund for New Deal projects

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · September 3, 2020

 

--------

"Mistakes are the portals of discovery."

- James Joyce

"Be curious, not judgmental."

- Walt Whitman

"A great leader treats people with respect even when they present different opinions. Without a variety of views and opinions, we would have no innovation or creativity in our nation. Being a bully and being strong are not the same thing. Being strong is standing up for your convictions. Being a bully is trying to intimidate those who are perceived to be weaker or a threat." 

- Rick Snyder


 

09/02/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Wed, 09/02/2020 - 8:55am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

2.  China moves toward new 'intelligentized' approach to warfare, says Pentagon

3.  Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report

4. US-China conflict to unite Taiwan

5.  US seeks formal alliance similar to NATO with India, Japan and Australia, State Department official says

6. Voice of America Journalists: New CEO Endangers Reporters, Harms U.S. Aims

7. The United States, Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity

8. Russian Darkweb shares personal data of nearly every voter in Michigan, plus a million more voters in four other states - Meduza

9. Facebook takes down a Russian operation that recruited U.S. journalists amid rising concerns regarding election misinformation

10. Fear of a Black General?

11. Where are the Black officers? US Army shows diversity in its ranks but few promotions to the top

12. Indian special forces soldier killed in skirmish with Chinese troops

13. Are Special Forces still special?

14. British Special Forces and RAF heroes leading obliteration of ISIS bases in Iraqi caves

15. If Trump refuses to accept defeat in November, the republic will survive intact, as it has 5 out of 6 times in the past

16. Fort Hood commander loses post after incidents at Army base

17. Keep Military Heath Care Integration on Track

18. Taiwan to change passport, fed up with confusion with China

19. Here's What All Those Black Helicopters Were Doing Zipping Around Los Angeles Last Night

20. Entire world starting to unite against China's unfair practices, says Mike Pompeo

21. China seeks to set up military logistic facilities in a dozen countries: Pentagon

 

1. DOD Releases 2020 Report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China

defense.gov

The 200 page report can be downloaded here.  https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF

I am still waiting for the north Korea report. I was on the red team review committee in 2018 and it still has not been published (it was a very good report at the time) but the political leadership in DOD has continued to hold up its release.

 

2. China moves toward new 'intelligentized' approach to warfare, says Pentagon

Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · September 1, 2020

 

3. Chad Sbragia, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China Press Briefing on the 2020 China Military Power Report

defense.gov

 

4. US-China conflict to unite Taiwan

By James Lee - Sat, Aug 29, 2020 page 8

https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2020/08/29/2003742455

 

5. US seeks formal alliance similar to Nato with India, Japan and Australia, State Department official says

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3099642/us-seeks-formal-alliance-similar-nato-india-japan-and-australia-state - by Robert Delaney – 1 September 2020

A journalist queried me on this today.  Here is my response:

I explained the background on the Quad and that the concept has long been discussed well before this current era of Great Power Competition.  It is based on like-minded countries who share interests and values.  I also explained the history of past US attempts to establish NATO like alliances: e.g., NEATO, SEATO, CENTO and that we have to be careful because one size fits all and I reminded him that Steve Biegun's remarks were cautious on this point.  I also explained that this does take on new import in terms of China in that this Great Power Competition is an ideological "war" and nations and people have to decide what ideology is best for them - the authoritarian system and surveillance state with the state control of the economy or the free and open democracies with free market economy, rule of law, and human rights.  The Quad consists of like-minded countries and as an example for other countries who wish to remain democratic. I also touched on some of the political complexities to include Japan's pacifist constitution and India's great pride in remaining non-aligned.

 

6. Voice of America Journalists: New CEO Endangers Reporters, Harms U.S. Aims

NPR · by David Folkenflik · August 31, 2020

The letter can be view at this link: https://www.npr.org/2020/08/31/907764105/voice-of-america-journalists-new-ceo-endangers-reporters-harms-u-s-aims

Here is the twitter response from USAGM.  The question is will USAGM and VOA address the issues in the letter or are they only going to address a "process foul"?

 

7. The United States, Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity

state.gov · by David R. Stilwell, Assistant SecretaryBureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs

Prepared remarks of David R. Stilwell, Assistant Secretary Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs

 

8. Russian Darkweb shares personal data of nearly every voter in Michigan, plus a million more voters in four other states - Meduza

meduza.io

 

9. Facebook takes down a Russian operation that recruited U.S. journalists amid rising concerns regarding election misinformation

The Washington Post – by Elizabeth Dwoskin and Craig Timberg - September 1, 2020

What efforts have not been discovered? And I think it will get worse in the next 2 months unless we are all vigilant.

 

10. Fear of a Black General?

defenseone.com · by James Joyner

 

11. Where are the Black officers? US Army shows diversity in its ranks but few promotions to the top

USA Today · by Tom Vanden Brook

 

12.  Indian special forces soldier killed in skirmish with Chinese troops

The Guardian · by AFP in New Delhi · September 1, 2020

 

13. Are Special Forces still special?

thearticle.com · August 31, 2020

This is a UK view of the SAS.

 

14.  British Special Forces and RAF heroes leading obliteration of ISIS bases in Iraqi caves

Express · by Marco Giannangeli · August 30, 2020

 

15. If Trump refuses to accept defeat in November, the republic will survive intact, as it has 5 out of 6 times in the past

theconversation.com · by Alexander Cohen

I do not offer this as any kind of partisan statement (I belong to neither party).  Given all the breathless discussion of whether the candidates will accept the outcome of the election this provides a calm dispassionate analysis. It is an excellent history lesson as well as a study of our political process.

 

16. Fort Hood commander loses post after incidents at Army base

NBC News · September 1, 2020

 

17. Keep Military Heath Care Integration on Track

realcleardefense.com · by Thomas Spoehr

 

18. Taiwan to change passport, fed up with confusion with China

Reuters · by Ann Wang and Ben Blanchard · September 2, 2020

Surely this will surely stir the ire of the PRC.

 

19. Here's What All Those Black Helicopters Were Doing Zipping Around Los Angeles Last Night

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · September 2, 2020

 

20. Entire world starting to unite against China's unfair practices, says Mike Pompeo

theprint.in · September 2, 2020

 

21. China seeks to set up military logistic facilities in a dozen countries: Pentagon

thehindubusinessline.com

 

 

"The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

- John F. Kennedy

 

"Don't forget what I discovered that over ninety percent of all national deficits from 1921 to 1939 were caused by payments for past, present, and future wars."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."

- Voltaire

09/02/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Wed, 09/02/2020 - 8:37am

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. U.S. report accuses China of failure to implement sanctions on N. Korea

2. Rehearsals Underway at the Mirim Parade Training Ground

3. North Korea braces for another powerful typhoon

4. U.S. extends travel ban on N. Korea for third time, citing 'serious risk'

5. North Korea Ballistic Missile Procurement Advisory

6. Kim Jong Un may be furious about rumors of sister Kim Yo Jong's rise in power

7. North Korea's Stolen Bitcoin Loot Move Is 'Just Tip of the Iceberg'

8. N. Korea uses foreign software to produce online publications

9. University student arrested for spreading "false information"

10. Unification minister calls for Japan's support in improving inter-Korean relations

11. North Korea Army Quarantines Entire Company on Coronavirus Fears

12.  Korea on Periphery as U.S. Pushes for Indo-Pacific Security Pact

13. US hints at easing 'heavy concentration' of troops in Northeast Asia

14. North Korea Isn't Making New Plutonium for Weapons, Report Says

15. How Can Korea Pay for This Spendthrift Budget?

16. South and North Korea brace for two typhoons within a week

17. Seoul police reportedly investigating South Korea's largest crypto exchange Bithumb

18. South Korea's Main Opposition Party Changes Name... Again

19. N. Korean military agencies trip over each other to extract bribes

20. Two more N. Koreans crossed border into Samjiyon on Aug. 20

21. S. Korea-U.S. working group useful, function can be adjusted: Cheong Wa Dae officia

22. Beijing rejects U.S. report on Chinese warheads

 

1. For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It's the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un per Se, That Is the Threat

realcleardefense.com · by Scott W. Harold and Soo Kim

Interesting title.  The authors make an excellent point.  This is a very succinct but thorough assessment of the regime and its threats and ways ahead.  And we are grateful they acknowledged and linked to our maximum pressure 2.0 report.

As I have often written: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

1. U.S. report accuses China of failure to implement sanctions on N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 2, 2020

This should be no surprise.

The report suggested China's loose implementation of the sanctions regime may be partly attributed to its dual-track approach toward North Korea that seeks to prevent military conflict on the Korean Peninsula and also a collapse of the North's communist regime.

 

2. Rehearsals Underway at the Mirim Parade Training Ground

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · September 1, 2020

I am sure the north Korean soldiers hate parade rehearsals just as much as soldiers around the world.  But I bet no other soldiers practice as long and hard as north Korea ones.  it is amazing the amount of resources, time, and manpower committed to this.  Just think how all these resources could be more effectively employed for the good of the Korean people in the north.

We should be prepared for a possible provocation surrounding this event if the regime is unable to execute it or execute to sufficient standard.

 

3. North Korea braces for another powerful typhoon

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 2, 2020

The korean people in the north do not need this.

 

4. U.S. extends travel ban on N. Korea for third time, citing 'serious risk'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 2, 2020

We do not need any more Otto Warmbiers.

 

5. North Korea Ballistic Missile Procurement Advisory

The very detailed 19 page advisory can be downloaded here: https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/126/20200901_nk_ballistic_missile_advisory.pdf

I think this is an important action.  This is a very comprehensive advisory.  This contributes to a maximum pressure campaign.  It provides critical advice for businesses to "know their customer."  I think this advisory may also serve as a warning to businesses that they will not be able to plead ignorance.  Now they have a responsibility to ensure proper vetting of customers to protect themselves from potentially violating UN and U.S. sanctions.  Such violations will likely result in severe punishment. They have been warned.
The purpose of this advisory seems to be threefold: 1) Try to prevent support for the regime's ballistic missile program.  2) Continue to assert maximum pressure on north Korea directly by upsetting its supply chain. 3) Lay the groundwork for potential punishment of violators  by exposing north Korean tactics, techniques and procedures.
I think it is also interesting to note the other actions that have been recently taken in regards to north Korean cyber activities and procurement of funds through cyber theft.  It appears the US is taking direct action against the regime and its ballistic missile program and against its illicit cyber activities.  This should be a message the US has not stopped implementing maximum pressure (even though there is still much more we can and must do).

My FDD colleague Andrea Stricker added this important point:

It is key that the government is highlighting for industry how North Korea seeks items for its missile program which fall below export control thresholds. Exporters need continuously updated government guidance about the latest illicit procurement schemes and specific items targeted by Pyongyang so they can better implement "catch-all" controls.
 

6. Kim Jong Un may be furious about rumors of sister Kim Yo Jong's rise in power

New York Post · by Yaron Steinbuch · August 31, 2020

You do not want to be called the number 2 in north Korea. However, I do take this with a grain of salt.  From what I have heard from escapees it seems that Kim Yo-jong is the only person Kim Jong-un likely trusts.

 

7. North Korea's Stolen Bitcoin Loot Move Is 'Just Tip of the Iceberg'

cryptonews.com · by Tim Alper

I do not think it has to be either/or.  We need to improve defenses but we also need to be aggressive in tracking down the funds.  And I would add we also need to conduct offensive operations against north Korean hackers and north Korea organizations. 

 

8. N. Korea uses foreign software to produce online publications

dailynk.com · September 1, 2020

 

9. University student arrested for spreading "false information"

dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - September 1, 2020

He served at the JSA for 8 years.  Be careful of drinking too much.

 

10. Unification minister calls for Japan's support in improving inter-Korean relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · September 1, 2020

Given all the current friction between Korea and Japan I am not sure whether this call from the Unification minister be heard in Japan.

 

11. North Korea Army Quarantines Entire Company on Coronavirus Fears

rfa.org

This could be very serious.  If there is any kind of widespread outbreak with the military it could have destabilizing effects on the regime.

 

12. Korea on Periphery as U.S. Pushes for Indo-Pacific Security Pact

english.chosun.com - September 02, 2020 10:44

Of course, Korea interprets this as a slight. The Quad as a concept has been around for some time.  But Korea should ask themselves given the relationship with Japan could it become part of it?  And if it wants to become part of the Quad plus it will have to accept the concept of strategic flexibility of US forces.  Perhaps a step toward the right direction might be improving the relationship with Japan and the trilateral relationship with Japan and the US.  Unfortunately, Korea's actions surrounding the GSOMIA do not engender confidence that the relationship can be improved.

 

13. US hints at easing 'heavy concentration' of troops in Northeast Asia

The Korea Times · September 2, 2020

This being interpreted as laying the ground world for withdrawal of some or all US forces from Korea and perhaps from Japan in support of SMA negotiations perhaps with both Korea and Japan.  But strategic flexibility is key to the future for US forces and for the alliances.

 

14. North Korea Isn't Making New Plutonium for Weapons, Report Says

Bloomberg · by Jonathan Tirone · September 2, 2020

 

15. How Can Korea Pay for This Spendthrift Budget?

english.chosun.com

 

16. South and North Korea brace for two typhoons within a week

CNN · by Julia Hollingsworth, Yoonjung Seo and Sophie Jeong, CNN

 

17. Seoul police reportedly investigating South Korea's largest crypto exchange Bithumb

cointelegraph.com · by Helen Partz

 

18. South Korea's Main Opposition Party Changes Name... Again

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

Names:

New Frontier

Liberty Korea 

United Future Party

And now: People Power Party

 

19. N. Korean military agencies trip over each other to extract bribes

dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - September 2, 2020

Another indicator of potential instability.  If this is widespread it could lead to a breakdown in the multiple chains of control of the military.

 

20. Two more N. Koreans crossed border into Samjiyon on Aug. 20

dailynk.com – by Ha Yoon Ah - September 2, 2020

Another potential indicator of coronavirus getting into the north.

 

21. S. Korea-U.S. working group useful, function can be adjusted: Cheong Wa Dae official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 2, 2020

Kind of a tepid description.  I think it is more than useful.  But certain members of the Moon administration still want to use it as an excuse for failed intra-Korean engagement. I do not know why they refuse to admit the reason for failure lies with the Kim family regime. 

 

22. Beijing rejects U.S. report on Chinese warheads

Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · September 2, 2020

They doth protest too much.

 

 

"The cost of freedom is always high, but Americans have always paid it. And one path we shall never choose, and that is the path of surrender, or submission."

- John F. Kennedy

 

"Don't forget what I discovered that over ninety percent of all national deficits from 1921 to 1939 were caused by payments for past, present, and future wars."

- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

"It is forbidden to kill; therefore all murderers are punished unless they kill in large numbers and to the sound of trumpets."

- Voltaire

9/1/2020 News & Commentary - Korea

Tue, 09/01/2020 - 11:44am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions

2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?

3. South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans

4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal

5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects

6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year

7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations

8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'

9. Moon needs help!

10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history

11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia

12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas

13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal

14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector

15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance

16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy

17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden

18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-Ju

 

1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions

US Department of Justice · by US DOJ · August 31, 2020

Good. Justice is on a roll. We need to keep this up. We cannot allow the North Koreans or anyone to subvert the financial system.

 

2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?

National Interest · by Jennifer Lind · August 31, 2020

Some good analysis in this essay however, I have to raise a big red flag about the statement below and the argument for forgoing support to the ROK. First, the comparison of NATO and the Cold War to the Korean peninsula today is not useful. Do we really think that, if we were not part of NATO and committed to the defense of Europe, we would have avoided a nuclear war with the USSR by sitting home while it attacked Europe? The same thing today with North Korea. Even if we packed up our marbles and went home, do we think that we would still not be vulnerable to a North Korean attack?  Would leaving the peninsula include US forces leaving Japan as well? This argument is idiotic and dangerous.

It is in this statement that I think the professors are really wrong. I think they would benefit from talking to South Korean officials.

The American people may thus decide that the partnership with Seoul is so valuable that it justifies accepting real risks of nuclear war. But the current in-between position - that Seoul is not with the United States in its critical regional mission vis-à-vis China, but that it expects the United States to risk its survival on South Korea’s behalf - would be (and should be) a tough sell to the American people.

First, this mischaracterizes the nature of the alliance. We are not in Korea just to defend South Korea.  We are there for our own interests in the region, the number one reason being to deter war.  Arguments such as this one will lead to war; whether we have troops on the peninsula and we contribute to the defense of the ROK or not, the US will suffer strategic effects. We also should consider how abandoning our ally (and not for good strategic reasons) will impact our other allied strategies.

Furthermore, South Korea's South strategy is designed to be complementary to the US Free and Open INDOPACIFIC strategy.  But we also need to respect the position South Korea is in, geographically as well its economic position vis a vis China. There is no doubt the ROK is committed to the alliance – despite what some professors, politicos, and pundits might think. But, it must walk a geostrategic tightrope and we must not treat South Korea as a puppet that simply does US bidding – which is, in effect, what these professors are arguing. It saddens and frustrates me to read such arguments.

 

3.  South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · August 31, 2020

Ahem. I think we agreed to OPCON transition as far back as 2003 when Rumsfeld first informed President-elect Roh's emissaries when they visited DC after the election. The concept has evolved since then, and I think 2015 is when we finally agreed to the current plan.

The policy has been discussed jointly with the United States since 2015, when the two countries agreed to a preliminary plan on the transfer.

 

4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal

Yonhap News Agency · by YNA · September 1, 2020

 

5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020

I wonder what will happen to these funds as North Korea is unlikely to accept these proposed "projects."  It seems like this money could be better spent on domestic issues such as COVID recovery.

 

6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year

Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020

What is always interesting to consider is that it is liberal administrations who spend more on defense than conservative administrations.

 

7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations

Dong-A Ilbo · by klimt@donga.com · September 1, 2020

A few of my thoughts on the way ahead for Korea-Japan relations.

The only way for things to change is if there is a direct, personal commitment by each leader to work together to prioritize mutual national security first over the historical issues. One President or Prime Minister cannot change things. It has to be both of them exercising decisive leadership to do what is best for their countries and not what is politically expedient for their personal politics or their political base.

After ensuring GSOMIA remains in place and mutual coordination on national security issues, I hope they can resolve the economic and trade issues while managing the historical issues. I do not think the latter can ever be fully resolved, but through decisive leadership they can be managed.

They should meet as soon as possible, perhaps at a mutually acceptable location (Guam? Hawaii? if I were advising our President, I would host a meeting for them both so I could facilitate. But I am afraid that, with the election, this will not be possible). But the key is that both leaders need to meet and make a private agreement that they are going to manage the situation and prioritize their national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues.

Time is short and they are unlikely to have any kind of significant breakthrough before the end of both of their terms (unless there is a snap election in Japan, the new Prime Minister will complete Abe's remaining term), though they could clean up the trade and economic issues and stabilize the GSMOIA issue. However, they can lay the groundwork for their successors. They can set an example on leadership and how to deal with each other with mutual respect.

 

8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'

Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 31, 2020

I hate to say it, but there will be no conclusive peace and no complete denuclearization as long as the Kim family regime exists. The ROK, with the support of the US, needs to have a long-term strategy to resolve the "Korea question." Within that strategy, you can work to negotiate denuclearization and there can be North-South engagement, but it must be in the context of the long-term objective of solving the Korea question.

 

9. Moon needs help!

Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Michael Green · September 1, 2020

Some good advice from Mike Green. President Moon should learn from his mentor.

 

10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history

Real Clear Defense · by Francis P. Sempa · August 31, 2020

 

11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia

Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020

So, where else will we station troops? But "strategic flexibility" with troops on the Korean peninsula is an important way ahead. It is unlikely we are going to be able to station troops in significant numbers (sufficient to serve US interests) in other locations throughout Asia.

 

12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas

Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020

Top officials have multiple responsibilities. Ri Pyong-chol is vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers Party. I do not think his only responsibility is overseeing the regime's nuclear program. The headline makes it seem (at least to me) that one of the actual senior scientists of leaders of the nuclear missile program was sent from his research facility to the typhoon hit areas. Ri is a party official who visited the area and, yes, he is also a party official with responsibility for oversight of the nuclear missile programs. But the headline would not have been as attention grabbing as "Party Official Visits Typhoon Hit Area."

 

13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal

Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Shim Kyu-Seok & Jeong Yong-Soo · September 1, 2020

There has long been donor fatigue with North Korea. This fact is especially true because the regime does not allow the necessary transparency to ensure aid is delivered to those actually in need. In addition, it is probably hard to raise funds for a pandemic when the North says there are no cases in the country.

 

14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector

Reuters · by Josh Smith, Hyonhee Shin, & Simon Cameron-Moore · September 1, 2020

This is just sickening. These escapees need to be protected even from those who should be protecting them. If found guilty, these two should be sent to a gulag in the North for life (yes, that is sarcasm, but there is no punishment strong enough in the South to undo this damage to the victim as well as to the trust of the entire escapee population - and future escapees).

 

15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance

National Interest · by Welton Chang · August 31, 2020

Rather than double down I think we need to evolve and mature the alliance (but I think we mean the same thing). The alliance is in the US’s interest. And because it is based on shrewd interests, shared values, and shared strategy, we should sustain it and improve it. It requires sustained "tending" and not taking it for granted or neglecting it.

 

16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy

National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · August 31, 2020

I think he will need to do more than freshen up old policy. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, we need to move our policy and strategy forward, making it broader and more aggressive and focusing on solving the Korea question.

 

17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden

National Interest · by Robert L. Gallucci · August 27, 2020

 

18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-ju

New York Post · by Tamar Lapin · August 31, 2020

 

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History, although sometimes made up of the few acts of the great, is more often shaped by the many acts of the small."

- Mark Yost

"Most of us spend too much time on the last 24 hours, and too little on the last 6,000 years."

- Will Durant

9/1/2020 News & Commentary - National Security

Tue, 09/01/2020 - 10:31am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. The few, the proud, the white: the Marine Corps balks at promoting generals of color

2. I was a U.S. diplomat. Customs and Border Protection only cared that I was black.

3. Soldier's 'vile' TikTok video about the Holocaust under investigation, Army says

4. America's little-known power play against China in Africa

5. The US and China are headed for competition but not a Cold War

6. These are all the major flashpoints between China and the U.S.

7. U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan strait for second time in August

8. New and old aircraft programs could get the ax as top U.S. Air Force general calls for a "ruthless prioritization" of its capabilities

9. The strategic implications of Chinese UAVs: insights from the Libyan conflict

10. US declassifies Taiwan security assurances

11. Close the Pentagon - it's too big of a target

12. A supercomputer analyzed Covid-19 - and an interesting new theory has emerged

13. Beijing's strategic ends: harmony through hierarchy and the end of choice

14. In China, the 'great firewall' is changing a generation

15. A call to action - enhancing our capabilities to counter cyber disinformation

16. The week QAnon became everyone's problem

17. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs

18. Secrets and lies: information warfare during the Cold War and today

19. China's war games raise fears for Taiwan's security

20. Bad cyber actors don't fear the law. We can change that.

 

1. The few, the proud, the white: the Marine Corps balks at promoting generals of color

New York Times · by Helene Cooper · August 31, 2020

What incredible timing with the promotion board coming up. It will forever taint the Colonel. If he is selected people will say the board was" forced" by this article. And, of course, if he is not selected (which in normal circumstances is likely for most all officers if you are on your fourth look), it will confirm the allegations against the Corps (though the data seems pretty cut and dried on the lack of Black general officers). I wondered who orchestrated this? It appears to be fellow Marines who served with him, under his command. I look at this possibly as an excellent PSYOP effort by those who are extremely loyal to the Colonel. I hope he is selected and I hope his selection is not tainted by this effort, but I fear it will be. If his Marines are willing to orchestrate this PSYOP effort out of loyalty to him, it sends a powerful message alone: the Colonel should continue to lead Marines. I am sure Helen Cooper (who won an award for her reporting on race relations in the military) probably connected with some of the Colonel's Marines and learned of this story. We should note the Colonel declined to be interviewed (we must give him the benefit of the doubt that he has nothing to do with this other than declining an interview). But, Ms Cooper most likely has learned a lot about the military and the promotion system and she (and her editors) probably understand the importance of timing for this article.

 

2. I was a U.S. diplomat. Customs and Border Protection only cared that I was black.

Politico · by Tianna Spears · August 30, 2020

A long read. A sad read. It is really unbelievable something like this could happen to an American, let alone a serving diplomat. I am sure people will read the CPB comments and reinforce their statements that the CPB officers were just doing their jobs. It certainly does not appear so from this story. Something does not smell right.

 

3. Soldier's 'vile' TikTok video about the Holocaust under investigation, Army says

Washington Post · by Alex Horton · August 30, 2020

Another black eye for the Army and the military. So, the question is how did this 2LT earn a commission to become an officer and a gentleman?

 

4. America's little-known power play against China in Africa

National Interest · by Seenaa Jimjimo · August 31, 2020

The subtitle says it all. We do not need to compete dollar for dollar. We need to unfailingly apply our values and principles. Foreign policy and strategy based on these is how we compete and win. 

 

5. The US and China are headed for competition but not a Cold War

Business Insider · by Rodger Baker · August 31, 2020

The emerging geographical perspective is still "slightly out of focus."

 

6. These are all the major flashpoints between China and the U.S.

Washington Post · by Bloomberg News · September 1, 2020

Here is the proverbial laundry list of issues.

 

7. U.S. destroyer transits Taiwan strait for second time in August

USNI News · by Mallory Shelbourne · August 31, 2020

 

8. New and old aircraft programs could get the ax as top U.S. Air Force general calls for a "ruthless prioritization" of its capabilities

Defense News · by Valerie Insinna · August 31, 2020

We need a greater sense of urgency.

 

9. The strategic implications of Chinese UAVs: insights from the Libyan conflict

Jamestown Foundation · by Ryan Oliver · August 31, 2020

 

10. US declassifies Taiwan security assurances

Financial Times · by Kathrin Hille, Demetri Sevastopulo, & Katrina Manson · August 31, 2020

I will leave this to the China experts, but this seems to be a significant development.

More information to be found in the documents themselves, via the American Institute in Taiwan.

 

11. Close the Pentagon - it's too big of a target

Defense News · by James Hasik · August 31, 2020

When I saw I thought it was the Opinion, the Duffleblog, or the Sacramento Bee.  It is not.

An interesting argument. But to take this argument to the local conclusion, anywhere we concentrate military capabilities (to include C2 functions) will be a target.

 

12. A supercomputer analyzed Covid-19 - and an interesting new theory has emerged

Elemental · by Thomas Smith · September 1, 2020

I have no medical or scientific expertise. But this is a fascinating read. If this hypothesis is proven, it seems like there are ways ahead to treat this.

 

13. Beijing's strategic ends: harmony through hierarchy and the end of choice

Strategy Bridge · by George Bartle · September 1, 2020

This should stimulate some discussion or at least provoke some thought.

 

14. In China, the 'great firewall' is changing a generation

Politico · by Yaqui Wang · September 1, 2020

 

15. A call to action - enhancing our capabilities to counter cyber disinformation

Real Clear Defense · by David R. Shedd & Barbara N. Stevens · August 28, 2020

 

16. The week QAnon became everyone's problem

Defense One · by Nicholas Grossman · August 31, 2020

Again, I find it incredible that anyone can believe this QAnon idiocy.

 

17. The coming revolution in intelligence affairs

Foreign Affairs · by Anthony Vinci · August 31, 2020

I recall that the Church Commission and DCI Stansfield Turner caused the shift of the focus of intelligence to a dependency on technological capabilities and away from human intelligence. I agree that AI and autonomous systems will have great application to intelligence collection and analysis, but there will always be the human element at the center – whether it is case officers in the field or the analysts interpreting the results of technical products and integrating it with human intelligence. We need to take advantage of every technological capability and innovation, but we cannot forget that "humans are more important than hardware" (a SOF truth which applies to much more than SOF).

 

18. Secrets and lies: information warfare during the Cold War and today

National Interest · by Milton Bearden · August 31, 2020

This is a war we have to fight. It is an integral part of Great Power Competition as well as the fight against revisionist, rogue powers and that against violent extremist organizations.

To borrow from Trotsky, "you may not be interested in (information) war, but it is interested in you."

And I must emphasize our collective responsibility as citizens to participate in this fight, as our National Security Strategy says:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

 

19. China's war games raise fears for Taiwan's security

Economist · by The Economist · August 30, 2020

I hope one phrase in the subtitle is right and one is wrong. In fact, for the second to be true, the first has to be wrong.

 

20. Bad cyber actors don't fear the law. We can change that.

Defense One · by Frank J. Cilluffo & Val Cofield · August 31, 2020

The authors say we need improved law enforcement as part of layered cyber deterrence.

 

"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."

- Cicero

"History, although sometimes made up of the few acts of the great, is more often shaped by the many acts of the small."

- Mark Yost

"Most of us spend too much time on the last 24 hours, and too little on the last 6,000 years."

- Will Durant

A Policy Response to Islamic State Extremist Fighter Battlefield Migration

Mon, 08/31/2020 - 8:38pm

A Policy Response to Islamic State Extremist Fighter Battlefield Migration

Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) or Foreign Extremist Fighters (FEFs) are a significant policy concern as foreign extremists return to their home states from jihadi battlefields abroad. This recently released Strategic Studies Institute monograph, A Policy Response to Islamic State Extremist Fighter Battlefield Migration by SWJ-El Centro Senior Fellow Robert J. Bunker and SWJ-El Centro Associate Alma Keshavarz analyzes and provides policy response options for US national security and Army planners concerning the potential for post-territorial caliphate battlefield migration by the sizable contingent of battle-hardened Islamic State foreign fighters situated within various remaining enclaves that remain in Syria and Iraq.

IS FEFs

Source: Robert J. Bunker and Alma Kesharvarz, A Policy Response to Islamic State Extremist Fighter Battlefield Migration. Carlisle Barracks: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. August 2020.