09/10/2020 News and Commentary -Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Andrew Narloch.
1. Resumption of N. Korean weapons testing only matter of time: U.S. expert
2. NK may be preparing to launch submarine missile: CSIS
3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: New Vehicles Emerge, Still Suggestive of SLBM Test Preparations
4. NSC officials discuss ways to advance Korea peace process before inter-Korean summit deal anniversary
5. Korean, U.S. Security Chiefs Discuss Peace Process, COVID-19
6. Suh Hoon, O’Brien move to resume nuclear talks
7. Ministry resumes probe into defector groups after virus-caused suspension
8. Kim Jong-un delegating control to cabinet, diplomatic source says
9. Kim Jong-un lobbied hard for 3rd summit in letters to Trump: book
10. ‘Japan should apologize to S. Korea for nose tomb,’ says former ambassador
11. North Korean Soldier Deserts Unit During Military Parade Practice
12. North Korea horror: Soldiers collapse in agony and others flee as major event looms
13. Is North Korea Changing Its Approach to Journalism?
14. Seoul Cracks Down on Dissent Against North Korea
15. A North Korea Strategy for the Next Administration
16. Students, senior citizens mobilized to mine for calcium carbonate in Chagang Province
1. Resumption of N. Korean weapons testing only matter of time: U.S. expert
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 10, 2020
2. NK may be preparing to launch submarine missile: CSIS
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · September 10, 2020
3. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: New Vehicles Emerge, Still Suggestive of SLBM Test Preparations
CSIS- by Joseph Bermudez-September 9, 2020,
Here are the images and Joe Bermudez' assessment
4. NSC officials discuss ways to advance Korea peace process before inter-Korean summit deal anniversary
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 10, 2020
Not much time for this. September 19 is just around the corner.
I think September 19 was an "inflection point" but not in a positive way. Yes there was an agreement (declaration) that included the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA). However, what was significant was Kim Jong-un's major strategic error of allowing President Moon to speak to the Korean people in the north. Although his speech was criticized by conservatives in the South for not talking tough the mistake was President Moon undermined north Korean propaganda. The Korean people saw an articulate leader who did not appear to be a puppet of the US. September 19 became a turning point because ever since then the north has been unwilling to engage with the South in any constructive manner and its propaganda has been more than insulting of the South. Yes, there were some small steps forward on the CMA but those are relatively insignificant and certainly have not advanced the course of peace as the South had hoped.
So I do not hold out much hope for any advances by September 19th.
5. Korean, U.S. Security Chiefs Discuss Peace Process, COVID-19
english.chosun.com-September 10, 2020 08:28
6. Suh Hoon, O’Brien move to resume nuclear talks
donga.com-September. 10, 2020 07:43
And seemed to have discussed Quad Plus.
7. Ministry resumes probe into defector groups after virus-caused suspension
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 10, 2020
This must stop. The South must rethink its approach to escapees. These actions are not good and they not only damage the reputation of the ROK, they will cause long term negative effects not only with escapees but with the unification process as a whole. These actions give the appearance of appeasing north Korea. IThe regime is deathly afraid of the effect information has on the Korean people living in the north.
8. Kim Jong-un delegating control to cabinet, diplomatic source says
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com-BY YOU SANG-CHUL, SHIM KYU-SEOK
I do not agree with this assessment. The regime requires one man (or women) rule. I am skeptical of these assessments except to note that Kim is under pressure from the elite and the military for his failures - in particular the failure to effectively play Trump and Moon to get sanctions relief while maintaining his nuclear and missile programs. But I do not think he is "delegating" control to them to appease them.
9. Kim Jong-un lobbied hard for 3rd summit in letters to Trump: book
Interesting. I did not know that. I guess that is why we saw the June 30 meeting at Panmunjom. I ordered Woodward's book solely to read the letters from Kim Jong-un that are supposedly published in it.
10. ‘Japan should apologize to S. Korea for nose tomb,’ says former ambassador
donga.com-September. 10, 2020
This is why historical issues between Japan and Korea are so hard to overcome.
11. North Korean Soldier Deserts Unit During Military Parade Practice
So much to unpack here. Loyalty checks, a huge celebration planned for October 10th (though reports that it may be "halved" due to the requirements for typhoon response), brutal training in preparation for the celebration.
12. North Korea horror: Soldiers collapse in agony and others flee as major event looms
Express · by Ciaran McGrath · September 10, 2020
Here is how the UK Express interprets the Radio Free Asia report on the OCtober 10th parade preparations.
13. Is North Korea Changing Its Approach to Journalism?
thediplomat.com · by Tae-jun Kang · September 8, 2020
It is moving into the modern era and it has to compete with all the information getting into the Korean people in the north. And with 6.5 million smart phones in north Korea social media is becoming increasingly important even though it is still firewalled off from the outside world.
14. Seoul Cracks Down on Dissent Against North Korea
WSJ · by Joshua Stanton and Sung-Yoon Lee
By two people who are the most articulate and outspoken on this issue (along with Dr. Tara O). I hope South Korea reads this and gets its wakeup call. This cannot stand. The irony is these actions and laws will not appease the north. It will only cause the regime to make more demands and continue to conduct its subversion strategy to undermine the legitimacy of the South Korean government. It has to be assessing its strategy as successful.
15. A North Korea Strategy for the Next Administration
Foreign Policy · by Andrea R. Mihailescu · September 9, 2020
I suppose you could make a case for every one of the actions outlined in this article. But they all depend on one thing: Kim Jong-un's decision making. What will it take to change Kim Jong-un's calculus? I would argue that there is nothing in this article that will cause him to change his strategy and his objectives. His objectives are incompatible with the objectives of South Korea and the ROKUS Alliance. We must develop our strategies and policies with a thorough understanding of his and not wishful thinking that he is somehow going to act as a responsible member of the international community.
16. Students, senior citizens mobilized to mine for calcium carbonate in Chagang Province
dailynk.com · September 10, 2020
This is the nature of the Kim family regime. But students and the elderly to work.
I am reminded of hwang Jong Yop's words (the late highest ranking north Korean defector and the "father" of "uche ideology.):
"The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the 'Dear Leader Absolutism' dictatorship. There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one's mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People."
Hwang Jang Yop, 2 DEC 99
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"To handle yourself, use your head; to handle others, use your heart."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"Radical groups with distant goals could find comfort in an isolated purity, while those who tasted success saw the value of accommodating the views of others."
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History
"A general dissolution of principles and manners will more surely overthrow the liberties of America than the whole force of the common enemy. While the people are virtuous they cannot be subdued; but when once they lose their virtue then will be ready to surrender their liberties to the first external or internal invader."
- Samuel Adams