News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Taiwan and the United States - much thunder, little rain

2. Coronavirus vaccine: Short cuts and allegations of dirty tricks in race to be first

3. China's Communist Party is a threat to the world, says former elite insider

4. Chinese Consulate in Houston Intervened in US Political Movement

5. 'Painted as spies': Chinese students, scientists say Trump administration has made life hostile amid battle against COVID-19

6. Pax Americana is Here to Stay

7. Chinese Purchases Of U.S. Soybeans Pick Up

8. The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict

9. The Pentagon is a shrine to antiquated technology where creative thinking goes to die

10. Indian 'Special Operations Forces': An instrument of foreign policy?

11. Why America's Navy SEALs Are More Important Than Ever

12. Inside the Boogaloo: America's Extremely Online Extremists

 

1. Taiwan and the United States - much thunder, little rain

eastasiaforum.org · by Douglas Paal · August 23, 2020

A sober conclusion from Dr. Paal: As with many of the threats, sanctions, trade tensions and tariffs between the United States and China so far, the Taiwan visit of Secretary Azar is more thunder than rain. But that could change dramatically and may well if the Trump team wants desperately enough to stir a strong Chinese reaction for domestic or other purposes.

 

2. Coronavirus vaccine: Short cuts and allegations of dirty tricks in race to be first

BBC · by Gordon Corera · August 23, 2020

Note Chinese and Russian actions.  Note the impact on the anti-vaxxer movement.

 

3. China's Communist Party is a threat to the world, says former elite insider

CNN · by CNN Staff

Not something you read every day. Cai Xia is quite outspoken:  They told me: 'you're first a

Communist Party member, and your identity as a citizen comes later.'" Cai recalled. "I thought to myself then, I would rather have my rights as a citizen than Party membership." I wonder about her safety.

 

4. Chinese Consulate in Houston Intervened in US Political Movement

chinascope.org

I have not seen any other reporting on this.  

 

5. 'Painted as spies': Chinese students, scientists say Trump administration has made life hostile amid battle against COVID-19

USA Today · by Deirdre Shesgreen

This is why we need better vetting and CI procedures so that innocent students are not incorrectly targeted.

 

6. Pax Americana is Here to Stay

Quillette · by Imran Said · August 18, 2020

Conclusion: "While the rise and fall of great powers is a historical given, the significant lead held by the US in economic clout and national wealth, technological innovation and global finance alongside China's internal challenges of low productivity, demographic decline, and chronic underconsumption, suggests to me that Pax Americana is here to stay for the foreseeable future."

 

7. Chinese Purchases Of U.S. Soybeans Pick Up

seekingalpha.com · by ING Economic and Financial Analysis · August 22, 2020

Good news for our farmers I hope.

 

8. The Bronze Soldier Crisis of 2007: Revisiting an Early Case of Hybrid Conflict

icds.ee · by Ivo Juurvee

The 55 page report can be downloaded here. 

 

9. The Pentagon is a shrine to antiquated technology where creative thinking goes to die

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

Ouch!

 

10. Indian 'Special Operations Forces': An instrument of foreign policy?

orfonline.org · by Siddhant Hira

Conclusion: "As is evident, the Special Operations Forces have been employed strategically by India in multiple theatres of action over the years. Their missions have always been given the green signal after factoring in the complex relationship between India's security and foreign policies - and never in isolation. In the current context of the Chinese incursions in Eastern Ladakh and the consequent turmoil arising along the LAC, it remains to be seen whether the Forces, despite their reported stationing near

 

11.  Why America's Navy SEALs Are More Important Than Ever

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · August 22, 2020

All SOF will play critical supporting roles in Great Power Competition in diverse geographic locations especially where proxy conflict is taking place.

 

12. Inside the Boogaloo: America's Extremely Online Extremists

The New York Times · by Leah Sottile · August 19, 2020

 

-------------------

 

"Propaganda seeks to destroy art in order to sanitize culture." 

- Mary Karr in The Art of Memoir

 

"So the realm of strategy is one of bargaining and persuasion as well as threats and pressure, psychological as well as physical effects, and words as well as deeds. This is why strategy is the central political art. It is about getting more out of a situation than the starting balance of power would suggest. It is the art of creating power." 

- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

"There is simple ignorance, which is the source of lighter offenses,
and double ignorance, which is accompanied by a conceit of wisdom; and he who is under the influence of the latter fancies that he knows all about matters of which he knows nothing."
- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. Does the U.S. Need to Fear That China Might Invade Taiwan?

2. Exclusive: No. 2 U.S. diplomat to visit Russia, Lithuania to discuss Belarus

3. Mali coup leader was trained by U.S. military, officers say

4. Hackers Leak Alleged Internal Files of Chinese Social Media Monitoring Firms

5. The Chinese and U.S. Internets are drifting apart. Why that’s bad for the whole world

6. Silicon Valley and Wall Street Elites Pour Money Into Psychedelic Research

7. Former Green Beret accused of spying on the US for Russia

8. The Intelligence Community’s Role in Countering Malign Foreign Influence on Social Media

9. Here’s What Might Not Survive COVID Budget Cuts

10. (U)Report Of The Select Committee On Intelligence United States Senate On Russian Active Measures Campaigns And Interference In The 2016 U.S. Election

11. Pentagon finds National Guard use of surveillance planes during US protests was legal but changes are needed

12. With a mix of covert disinformation and blatant propaganda, foreign adversaries bear down on final phase of presidential campaign

13. The Biden Doctrine Exists Already. Here's an Inside Preview.

14. The Republican Embrace of QAnon Goes Far Beyond Trump

15. Trump's planned troop pullout from Germany has many military holes

16. Scoop: Open Technology Fund sues administration for $20M in missing funds

17. Some VOA Journalists Forced to Leave US Soon as Visas Expire

18. Engel Statement on VOA Journalists Facing Expiring Visas

19. The Critical 6 Months for US-Japan Defense Cooperation We Never Saw Coming

20. 'Missile barges' could be America's secret weapon in the Pacific

21. The true story behind that one scene from 'Black Hawk Down' that explains why soldiers go to war

 

1. Does the U.S. Need to Fear That China Might Invade Taiwan?

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · August 20, 2020

Taiwan has to be on the most difficult strategic and military challenges.

 

2. Exclusive: No. 2 U.S. diplomat to visit Russia, Lithuania to discuss Belarus

ca.reuters.com · by Jonathan Landay and Arshad Mohammed

This will likely be a tough trip.

Perhaps the DEPSECSTATE could reinforce the Resistance Operating Concept in preparation for continued Russian meddling.

https://nsiteam.com/social/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/U-SMA-Brief-SOCEUR-Resistance-Operating-Concept.pdf

https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/prism/prism_8-4/prism_8-4_17-28_Fiala-Pettersson.pdf

https://jsou.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=54216464

https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:1392106/FULLTEXT01.pdf

 

3. Mali coup leader was trained by U.S. military, officers say

The Washington Post

Hindsight is 20/20.  Yes, unfortunately these things happen.  There will be the inevitable criticisms of US SOF training people like Col. Assimi Goita.  But I wish we could get credit for how many times this has not happened because of such training.  And yes, of course that is not provable.  

 

4. Hackers Leak Alleged Internal Files of Chinese Social Media Monitoring Firms

Vice · by Joseph Cox

I hope this can be exploited.

 

5. The Chinese and U.S. Internets are drifting apart. Why that’s bad for the whole world

Fortune · by Kislaya Prasad · August 21, 2020

 

6. Silicon Valley and Wall Street Elites Pour Money Into Psychedelic Research

WSJ · by Shalini Ramachandran· August 20, 2020

All you need is some acid to cure your PTSD. There is a magic pill for everything. 

I am reminded of Jefferson Airplane's White Rabbit:

One pill makes you larger, and one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you, don't do anything at all
Go ask Alice, when she's ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits, and you know you're going to fall
Tell 'em a hookah-smoking caterpillar has given you the call
He called Alice, when she was just small
When the men on the chessboard get up and tell you where to go
And you've just had some kind of mushroom, and your mind is moving low
Go ask Alice, I think she'll know
When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the White Knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen's off with her head
Remember what the Dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head

 

7. Former Green Beret accused of spying on the US for Russia

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

I guess we need some CI improvements.  This is am amazing story.  We had so many breakdowns in the Army and Special Forces.

Here is a link to the District's press release: 

Here is the link to the 17 page indictment. I rarely read legal documents like this but this one is worth the read to really see how we failed. 

 

8. The Intelligence Community’s Role in Countering Malign Foreign Influence on Social Media

lawfareblog.com · by Gavin Wilde  August 21, 2020

This is the essence of the challenge: "From the Church and Pike Committees to the Patriot Act, to WikiLeaks to the Snowden affair, perhaps no issue has drawn more public scrutiny of the otherwise-secretive intelligence community than its role with respect to U.S. persons - nor has any issue elicited more transparency reforms. The correct balance between privacy and security was fodder for debate long before the formal establishment of U.S. intelligence-gathering agencies well over a half-century ago."

 

9. Here’s What Might Not Survive COVID Budget Cuts

defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber

Yes, we are going to face severe budget challenges. We are not going to be able to just continue printing money indefinitely.  We are going to need a lot of fiscal discipline and we will have to make tough decisions on priorities in the years ahead.

 

10. (U) Report Of The Select Committee On Intelligence United States Senate On Russian Active Measures Campaigns And Interference In The 2016 U.S. Election

Just in case, anyone needs access to the Senate report.  Here is the link to the 966 page report. I have not read it but perhaps some will find it useful research and reference.

VOLUME 5: COUNTERINTELLIGENCE THREATS AND VULNERABILITIES 

 

11. Pentagon finds National Guard use of surveillance planes during US protests was legal but changes are needed

CNN · by Barbara Starr

 

12. With a mix of covert disinformation and blatant propaganda, foreign adversaries bear down on final phase of presidential campaign

The Washington Post· by Shane Harris and Ellen Nakashima· August 21, 2020

This is happening.  We cannot bury our heads in the sand.  "At least three countries - Russia, China and Iran - have taken aim at the campaigns themselves and tried to stir the passions of voters, with a mix of covert “information laundering” and some ham-handed propaganda."  I also notice that NK News is reporting that north Korea is also trying to interfere with the US elections.

I wonder since these countries supposedly want different candidates to win will their efforts cancel each other out??? (that is a sarcastic comment).

 

13. The Biden Doctrine Exists Already. Here's an Inside Preview.

Foreign Policy · by James Traub · August 20, 2020

Foreign Policy magazine has chosen its candidate.

Excerpt:

Colin Kahl, Biden’s national security advisor from 2014 to the end of the administration and now a professor at Stanford University, said, “The three things that are most obvious are one, the world has become so interconnected that the biggest existential challenges we face are the transnational threats” - an awareness acutely amplified by the coronavirus pandemic; “two, democracy is on its back foot around the world; and three, the changing distribution of global power - great-power competition is back.”

 

14. The Republican Embrace of QAnon Goes Far Beyond Trump

The New York Times · by Matthew Rosenberg and Maggie Haberman· August 20, 2020

I wish we could develop some collective ability for critical thinking.  It is simply amazing how anyone could believe this stuff.  But it is worthy of study to see how easily some people can be manipulated.  It will be interesting to discover who is behind this pulling the strings.

Excerpts:

“QAnon is nuts -and real leaders call conspiracy theories conspiracy theories,” said Senator Ben Sasse, Republican of Nebraska, after the president appeared to endorse QAnon this week.“

If Democrats take the Senate,” he added, “This will be a big part of why they won.”Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the No. 3 House Republican, joined the fray on Thursday, calling QAnon “dangerous lunacy that should have no place in American politics.”

 

15. Trump's planned troop pullout from Germany has many military holes

CNN · by by Brad Lendon

These moves cannot be made overnight.  I feel bad for the logisticians and facilities engineers who will have to make these moves happen. They have Alexander looking over their shoulders:

"My logisticians are a humorless lot... they know that if my campaign fails, they are the first ones I will slay."

Alexander the Great

 

16. Scoop: Open Technology Fund sues administration for $20M in missing funds

Axios · by Sara Fischer

Not at all helpful to our information and influence activities efforts around the world in denied areas.

 

17. Some VOA Journalists Forced to Leave US Soon as Visas Expire

The New York Times · by The Associated Press · August 21, 2020

Yes, I understand that if people are in violation of visa status the proper action must be taken.

However, we should recognize how important these people are to the national security mission of the US.  They are contributing so much more than so many of us.  Also, many of these journalists could be at great risk if they return to their homes due to the nature of the news they have been reporting.

 

18. Engel Statement on VOA Journalists Facing Expiring Visas

foreignaffairs.house.gov · August 21, 2020

I hope Congress takes quick action to resolve these issues.

 

19. The Critical 6 Months for US-Japan Defense Cooperation We Never Saw Coming

thediplomat.com · by James L. Schoff · August 21, 2020

 

20. 'Missile barges' could be America's secret weapon in the Pacific

sandboxx.us · by Alex Hollings · August 18, 2020

Not so secret anymore. And if it looks like commercial shipping, it might make all commercial shipping vulnerable to attack.

 

21. The true story behind that one scene from 'Black Hawk Down' that explains why soldiers go to war

taskandpurpose.com · by James Clark

A great scene and a great story of the real story which does not take anything away from the great scene.  And most importantly, it does express the sentiment all military personnel feel and come to believe (or should).

 

-----------------

 

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it."

- Mark Twain

 

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."

- Alan Bullock, British historian

 

“Perhaps the most important lesson from Game Theory is that in business, war, or any competitive enterprise, one must anticipate his opponent's strategy before developing one's own strategy.”

- Geoffrey Goff

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. [Editorial] Consultative mechanism (ROK/US)

2. Despite delegated power, Kim Yo Jong fails to make appearance

3. Highlights of North Korea's Latest Party Meetings: Setting a New Agenda

4. Sanctions on North Korea: An interview with Joshua Stanton

5. N. Korean newspaper urges conservation of electricity amid chronic power shortage

6. S. Korea approves aid group's plan to send protective clothing to N. Korea

7. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean cooperation against disasters

8. Delegation of power by Kim Jong-un a show of confidence: experts

9. Annual reserve forces' training called off due to COVID-19 (South Korea)

10. South Korea's plans to reform National Intelligence Service highlight ideological divisions

11. Unprecedented Glimpse of Crisis in North Korea

12. S. Korea braces for nationwide epidemic, expands stricter social distancing rules

13. Top S. Korean, Chinese officials have 'good' and 'enough' discussions, no announcement on Xi's visit

14. Xi to visit S. Korea after coronavirus situation is 'stabilized,' top officials agree

15. Former aide to ex-president claims NK leader in coma

 

1. [Editorial] Consultative mechanism (ROK/US)

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 20, 2020

Two points:  The editorial board gets it right.  The ROK/US strategy working group does not hinder intra-Korea relations.  It is the north that hinders relations.

Second, the recent US Army manual on north Korean tactics is turning out to be quite influential. The Korean press is now regularly citing it for the 60 north Korean nuclear warheads and that the north has the 3d largest chemical weapons stockpile.

Excerpts:

“It is a misperception that the working group has acted as a roadblock to closer inter-Korean cooperation. The truth is that Pyongyang's insistence on sanctions relief and other concessions without dismantling its nuclear arsenal has blocked progress on inter-Korean reconciliation.”

“North Korea is now believed to have as many as 60 nuclear bombs and the world's third-largest stockpile of chemical agents -- an estimated 5,000 tons, according to a report released last month by the US Army. Pyongyang is unlikely to abandon these weapons, which it believes are essential to the survival of the isolated regime.”

“The North has ignored all proposals made so far by the Moon administration, which it sees as far from satisfactory.”

 

2. Despite delegated power, Kim Yo Jong fails to make appearance

donga.com · August 22, 2020

The guessing game continues.

 

3. Highlights of North Korea's Latest Party Meetings: Setting a New Agenda

38north.org

Economy and uncertainty.

 

4. Sanctions on North Korea: An interview with Joshua Stanton

dailynk.com · Joshua Stanton ·August 21, 2020

Very comprehensive interview.  Josh covers a lot of ground.  Of course, he is critical of our sanctions enforcement.  He says our weak enforcement is the cause of failure and that we need sanctions to bring the regime to the table the way sanctions brought Iran to the table.  Although it may seem like splitting hairs but while I believe external pressure (sanctions and much more, to include influence operations) is critically important, they are not sufficient to bring Kim to the negotiating table.  What really must force a change to the regime's calculus is internal pressure from the regime elite and military.  Again, we can say that our insufficient enforcement is a failure, we should also realize that our steadfast resolve not to lift sanctions has caused Kim Jong-un to be the real failure in the eyes of the elite and the military.  This is key to the way forward.  Our resolve to commit to current sanctions will continue to generate the necessary internal pressure but also is the best chance of undermining the regime's blackmail diplomacy. Once we make a concession, Kim will double down on blackmail diplomacy - coercion and extortion.

Also, note Josh's comments about humanitarian assistance.  And most important note his analysis of the Ministry of Unification plans for barter.  He suspects (with good cause) that the Koryo Kaesong Ginseng Trading Company for Officer 39.

 

5. N. Korean newspaper urges conservation of electricity amid chronic power shortage

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 21, 2020

We really do have to be observing for indications and warnings of instability as well as potential miscalculation by the regime in the face of multiple crises.

 

6. S. Korea approves aid group's plan to send protective clothing to N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 21, 2020

The key point: "It is unclear whether the North will accept aid from such civilian organizations amid chilly inter-Korean relations."

 

7. Unification minister renews calls for inter-Korean cooperation against disasters

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · August 21, 2020

The MOU should focus on this (well actually my recommendation would be the MOU actually focused on planning and preparing for unification that results in a  United Republic of Korea (UROK))

 

8. Delegation of power by Kim Jong-un a show of confidence: experts

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · August 21, 2020

First, I think the NIS assessment must be taken with a grain of salt.  Second, if the assessment is accurate that Kim Yo-jong is being given some of the reins of power I am not sure it indicates strength and confidence.  I think this "new arrangement" is not normal for the regime and therefore it is more likely an indication of extreme internal stress and problems (perhaps KIm Jong-un's poor health). And if this new arrangement is a reality it could very well increase the possibility of miscalculation. The regime is not designed to operate in any way other than one man (or perhaps woman) rule.  Again, this could lead to dangerous decision making.

 

9. Annual reserve forces' training called off due to COVID-19 (South Korea)

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 21, 2020

For the way ahead and due to the changing demographics with the reduction of military manpower, the ROK needs to invest in a strong reserve component.

 

10. South Korea's plans to reform National Intelligence Service highlight ideological divisions

SCMP · by John Power · August 22, 2020

A storied organization with an "interesting" history going back to the KCIA.

Critics want the NIS to move forward in the national interest.  I would bet if you asked both the leadership and members of the NIS they would always say their work is conducted in the national interest.

 

11. Unprecedented Glimpse of Crisis in North Korea

hrw.org · by John Sifton · August 21, 2020

Multiple crises.  As I have said and will continue to write, this is a time for possible miscalculation by the regime.  And we also have to be watchful for the indications and warnings of instability.  But the problem is in the title - sometimes we can only see 'glimpses" of what is happening inside north Korea.  These crises could create a perfect storm.

My new favorite line (after you cannot eat Juche) is from the article below; "You can't eat a parade."  But the regime sure loves its parades.

 

12. S. Korea braces for nationwide epidemic, expands stricter social distancing rules

en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · August 22, 2020

This is certainly worrisome.

 

13. Top S. Korean, Chinese officials have 'good' and 'enough' discussions, no announcement on Xi's visit

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 22, 2020

So the discussions were just good enough?

 

14. Xi to visit S. Korea after coronavirus situation is 'stabilized,' top officials agree

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · August 22, 2020

That could be a long time in the future.

 

15. Former aide to ex-president claims NK leader in coma

koreaherald.com · by Choi He-Suk · August 21, 2020

Here we go again. There is no substance to this "report."

 

----------

 

"Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it." 

- Mark Twain
 

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."
- Alan Bullock, British historian

 

"Perhaps the most important lesson from Game Theory is that in business, war, or any competitive enterprise, one must anticipate his opponent's strategy before developing one's own strategy."

- Geoffrey Goff

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. A Russian military framework for understanding influence in the competition period

2. "Deepfakes: and the law of armed conflict: are they legal?

3. It is time to make rotating faculty positions at the US Military Academy open to all ranks

4. Why Russian military exoskeletons are not science fiction

5. The U.S. Army wants to transform soldiers into walking radar detectors

6. Former Navy SEAL says he did not throw a bomb at protesters, but Portland police say he has 'not been cleared'

7. How a fake CIA spy fooled everyone and swindled millions

8. US military personnel, veterans lost nearly $400 million to scammers since 2015, study shows

9. Local officials in China hid Coronavirus dangers from Beijing, U.S. agencies find

10. Inside story of US black ops in post-war Japan

11. Are America's East Asia allies willing and able to host U.S. intermediate-range missiles?

12. Why US Indo-Pacific strategy will fail

13. US formally ends three accords with Hong Kong

14. Taiwan plans to ban major Chinese video streaming services

15. Beyond TikTok: Preparing for future digital threats

16. Reported loss of two U.S. MQ-9 reapers in Syria raises troubling questions

 

1. A Russian military framework for understanding influence in the competition period

armyupress.army.mil

From the Army's Foreign Military Studies Office which is probably one of the organizations that punches way above its intellectual weight. Few may have heard of it, but they have done a lot of great research over the years with a very small cadre of experts. What FMSO produces is worth reading.

2. "Deepfakes: and the law of armed conflict: are they legal?

lieber.westpoint.edu · by Eric Jensen · August 19, 2020

Certainly some food for thought. To be honest I had not given this very much thought before reading this article. I will be interested to read the opinions of some of our law of war experts.

3. It is time to make rotating faculty positions at the US Military Academy open to all ranks

armytimes.com · by Tara Heidger · August 17, 2020

Very interesting idea. I have known many NCOs with both the education and aptitude to teach. But what strikes me about this OpEd is the author's honesty. Read the final statement in her bio. Make her the test case.

4. Why Russian military exoskeletons are not science fiction

Forbes · by David Hambling · August 19, 2020

So the Iron Man will be Russian.

5. The U.S. Army wants to transform soldiers into walking radar detectors

Forbes · by Michael Peck · August 19, 2020

The buried lede: "However, the problem is that American infantry are already groaning under the weight of weapons, body armor and equipment. Adding radar detection gear will add more strain to sore backs and knees." As the infantryman's adage goes, "A hundred pounds of lightweight s**t is still a hundred pounds."

6. Former Navy SEAL says he did not throw a bomb at protesters, but Portland police say he has 'not been cleared'

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol

7. How a fake CIA spy fooled everyone and swindled millions

thedailybeast.com · by Justin Rohrlich 

A long read but what an unbelievable story.

8. US military personnel, veterans lost nearly $400 million to scammers since 2015, study shows

foxbusiness.com · by Hollie McKay

What an incredible amount of money.

9. Local officials in China hid Coronavirus dangers from Beijing, U.S. agencies find

nytimes.com · by Edward Wong, Julian E. Barnes, Zolan Kanno-Youngs 

We heard in January from Chinese friends the outbreak was known as early as October and Beijing knew about it then. But I suppose since it was a new virus everyone was probably in the dark about the dangers.

10. Inside story of US black ops in post-war Japan

asiatimes.com · by Robert Whiting · August 18, 2020

More interesting history.

11. Are America's East Asia allies willing and able to host U.S. intermediate-range missiles?

eastwestcenter.org · by Eric Gomez · August 19, 2020

Very interesting recommendations: "The United States should push on this open door. Emulating allies' plans for land-based missile forces should make U.S. deployments of similar capabilities more palatable to friendly administrations. Moreover, a narrowly defined role and target set for U.S. missile capabilities improves conventional deterrence while avoiding the nuclear escalation risks inherent with missiles that target facilities deeper in China's interior. If allies are still hesitant to let the United States deploy missiles on their territory, then joint development-like the U.S.-Japan effort on the SM-3 IIA missile defense interceptor-could be a viable alternative. Restraint should guide U.S. missile strategy in the post-INF world. East Asian allies have not rolled out the welcome mat for new deployments. Washington should be mindful of this and focus its efforts on emulating allied land-based missile strategy that has thus far emphasized creating friendly A2/AD zones.

12. Why US Indo-Pacific strategy will fail

asiatimes.com · by Ken Moak · August 20, 2020

Did we really produce a strategy that is not in our own interests? Is this a true statement? "There was never any problem of "freedom of navigation" in the South China Sea until the US declared its "pivot to Asia" policy in 2012."

13. US formally ends three accords with Hong Kong

channelnewsasia.com

Things will never be the same again.

14. Taiwan plans to ban major Chinese video streaming services

The Verge · by Sam Byford · August 20, 2020

Those pesky loopholes.

15. Beyond TikTok: Preparing for future digital threats

warontherocks.com · by Kara Frederick - Chris Estep - Megan Lamberth · August 20, 2020

The new battlefield.

16. Reported loss of two U.S. MQ-9 reapers in Syria raises troubling questions

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · August 20, 2020

I am surprised that this does not happen more often.

 

-----------

"In each succeeding war there is a tendency to proclaim as something new the principles under which it is conducted. Not only those who have never studied or experienced the realities of war, but also professional soldiers frequently fall into the error. But the principles of warfare as I learned them at West Point remain unchanged." 

- John J. Pershing, 'My Experiences in the World War'

 

"Patience strengthens the spirit, sweetens the temper, stifles anger, extinguishes envy, subdues pride, bridles the tongue." 

- George Horne

 

"The primary purpose of the Rolex is not as a timepiece but rather as a life insurance policy. When the situation goes pear-shaped and you've somehow made it to the airport, the Rolex buys you a seat on the last flight out of Heart of Darkness International Airport. As your aircraft circles the city, you look down at the rising columns of black smoke and imagine the scene downtown in the city square where they're chopping the few remaining Westerners up into monkey meat, you look at your wrist where your treasured timepiece used to be and you think 2 things: A) 'Well I guess the Rolex finally paid for itself,' and B) 'I can always buy another watch . . .'" 

-  Unknown

 

 

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

 

1. Rodong Sinmun praises WPK for bringing about great turn in destiny of country and people

2. Political decision to be recorded as another special event in militant course of glorious WPK on convening 8^thCongress of WPK 6^th Plenary Meeting of 7^th Central Committee of WPK held

3. 6 Russian military aircraft briefly violate S. Korea's air defense zone

4. UNICEF: North Korea closed shipping route with China

5. Seoul revs up efforts to improve inter-Korean ties

6. Toward responsible liberalism (South Korea)

7. 'Time to send aged NK spies, POWs back to North'

8. N.K. to unveil new 5-year economic development plan at rare party congress next year

9. Top Chinese official won't meet Moon during Korea Visit

10. North Korean malicious cyber activity | CISA

11. FOLLOW-UP: North Korea's nuclear, chemical arsenals are growing: U.S. Army

12. North Korea's leader had big economic plans. He admits they’ve failed.

13. Kim Jong-un delegated partial authority to sister: spy agency*** (Note important comments)

14. Scott Snyder on Trump, South Korea, and 'America-First' Alliance Policy

15. George Clooney-backed investigative org exposes North Korean banking scandal in DR Congo

16. Anti-Japan nationalism taking hold in Korea

17. The 8th WPK congress announcement: strengthened economic control to come?

18. Kim Jong-un's dire warning on economy hints at growing crisis

19. N. Hamgyong Province faces potential shortage of vegetables following rains

 

1. Rodong Sinmun praises WPK for bringing about great turn in destiny of country and people

kcnawatch.org

This is the KCNA report of the Rodong Sinmun article on the WPK meeting. No one does better "flowery worded" propaganda than the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department: "The article says that the exploits of our Party, which has turned the country into an independent powerful country and invincible socialist nation in the global spotlights, made the people masters of their destiny and gave them the dignity and honor of pacemakers carving out the future of mankind, will shine for all ages along with the steady prosperity of Kim Il Sung's nation and Kim Jong Il's Korea."

2. Political decision to be recorded as another special event in militant course of glorious WPK on convening 8^th Congress of WPK 6^th Plenary Meeting of 7^th Central Committee of WPK held

kcnawatch.org · August 20, 2020

The Propaganda and Agitation Department needs better headline editors.

Looks like the crucial issue is the economy and the decision to convene the 8th Party Congress and present a new 5 year economic plan. I think we were all expecting something nuclear or ICBM related - (though we should keep in mind all warfare, including especially political warfare, is based on deception so we should not be lulled into a false sense of complacency).

But here is the summary of the meeting (let me know if you can make sense of it): "He said that the Political Bureau of the Party Central Committee suggested convening the 8th Congress of the WPK to analyze and review in a comprehensive, three-dimensional and anatomical way the deviations and shortcomings in the work for the implementation of the decisions made at the 7th Congress of the Party and to discuss and decide on the strategic tasks for the Party and the government in the new phase of struggle in the crucial period of our revolution."  ... "He said that the 8th Congress would review this year's work and the work of the Central Committee of the Party in the period under review and set forth a new 5-year plan for national economic development including next year's orientation of work.

3. 6 Russian military aircraft briefly violate S. Korea's air defense zone

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · August 20, 2020

Well that was very nice of the Russians. I would like to know what kind of ROK-Japan coordination took place as the article notes after 20 minutes in the ROK ADIZ (around DokDo) they transited to the Japanese ADIZ.

4. UNICEF: North Korea closed shipping route with China

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · August 19, 2020

The policy decisions of Kim Jong-un are responsible for the difficulties in providing humanitarian assistance to the Korean people living in the North. "U.S. experts on North Korea told Radio Free Asia the measures pose even greater challenges for international organizations sending aid supplies to the isolated country. Closures only exacerbate the public health and food security crisis in North Korea, they said."

5. Seoul revs up efforts to improve inter-Korean ties

The Korea Times · August 19, 2020

The doubling down by the Moon administration begins. I really wonder what are Minister Lee's new ideas. How is he going to build an environment conducive to bilateral ties with the North when the North does not want to do so? I fear since sanctions relief is not on the table it will have to be something under the table. But I wonder how long it will be before Kim Jong-un slams the door in the South's face, figuratively. And most importantly, if North Korea continues to act the way it has, will the Moon administration reassess its assumptions and adjust its strategy? The main (erroneous) assumption being that the North wants peace and is willing to negotiate to bring it about.

6. Toward responsible liberalism (South Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Byung-yeong

A very interesting OpEd. Don't let the use of the word liberalism distract you. This is really about how the government should view and act toward North Korea. Key excerpt: "Only a true liberal ponders deeply about North Korea's denuclearization. Only a responsible liberal clarifies that without denuclearization, peace and prosperity can never be achieved. President Moon checks neither of these boxes. In his Aug. 15 Independence Day address, Moon made no mention of denuclearization and blathered on about peace, prosperity and cooperation with North Korea."

7. 'Time to send aged NK spies, POWs back to North'

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · August 19, 2020

I do think this should be done. It is the right thing to do from a humanitarian perspective. Seoul should take the moral high ground here. It will not get anything in return from the North and it should not hold out for some of kind of deal. Just do the right thing because it is the right thing to do (Kant).

8. N.K. to unveil new 5-year economic development plan at rare party congress next year

en.yna.co.kr · by Koh Byung-joon · August 20, 2020

A question for all the economic-historians if there is such a discipline: When has a communist 5-year economic plan ever been successful and accomplished its objectives?

9. Top Chinese official won't meet Moon during Korea Visit

english.chosun.com

Perhaps a small thing but I think it is important for Moon not to meet with him.

10. North Korean malicious cyber activity | CISA

us-cert.cisa.gov

US government warnings.

Please see these two links:

https://us-cert.cisa.gov/northkorea

https://us-cert.cisa.gov/ncas/analysis-reports/ar20-232a

11. FOLLOW-UP: North Korea's nuclear, chemical arsenals are growing: U.S. Army

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I am resending the article below with new comments from Robert Collins. I think the doctrine writers got a little over their heads on the strategic analysis. I think the tactical and operational aspects of the manual are good, but I think they missed the mark on the strategic level. Regardless this is an excellent tutorial on Songun from Robert Collins.

Original Message and my original comments:

It is funny the Joongang Ilbo used the graphic below. A Korea hand emailed me last night and pointed out this graphic is wrong. Perhaps he will provide me with a critique I can share. I have already referenced the obvious on Songun - it is military first politics. It is not a policy - it is much more than. It is about political control. Let me share a short excerpt from one of my mentors, Robert Collins, and his report on the Organization and Guidance Department he wrote for the Committee for Human rights in North Korea.

North Korea's ORGANIZATION AND GUIDANCE DEPARTMENT - The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial

12. North Korea's leader had big economic plans. He admits they’ve failed.

nytimes.com · by Choe Sang-hun 

Again, when has a communist 5 year economic plan ever been successful?

13. Kim Jong-un delegated partial authority to sister: spy agency*** (Note important comments)

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · August 20, 2020

I am sure there will be more analysis on this. However, my good friend and mentor, Robert Collins had this to say about Kim Yo-jong. This single paragraph is a critical assessment that we must pay attention to.

14. Scott Snyder on Trump, South Korea, and 'America-First' Alliance Policy

thediplomat.com · by Shannon Tiezzi · August 19, 2020

Important insights from Scott. And for all those who think a Biden Administration will transform Korea policy for the better there is this warning: "The election of Joe Biden would ease some America-first influences in U.S. government policy and bring a renewed focus to cooperative settlement of burden sharing and alliance management issues. But it is possible to imagine greater tensions between the United States and North Korea under a Biden administration, making the task of coordinating policies with Moon and future South Korean administrations both more important and potentially more difficult."

15. George Clooney-backed investigative org exposes North Korean banking scandal in DR Congo

deadline.com · by Tom Grater · August 19, 2020

I did not see this one coming (North Korean activities, sure but George Clooney's organization calling them out?).

The 22 page report can be downloaded here. 

16. Anti-Japan nationalism taking hold in Korea

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · August 20, 2020

Not a good sign. Note the argument for changing the national anthem. Truly sad but of course South Korea is not the only country where people argue about changing the national anthem because of past history.

17. The 8th WPK congress announcement: strengthened economic control to come?

nkeconwatch.com · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein 

18. Kim Jong-un's dire warning on economy hints at growing crisis

theedgemarkets.com · August 20, 2020

The difference between the Arduous March or great famine of 1994-1996 when the economy and public distribution system collapsed and as many as three million Koreans may have died from the severe conditions and now. The regime was "saved" by a large infusion of cash during the Sunshine Policy period. Due to the current sanctions regime that is less likely to happen today. The article below reminds us we need to pay close attention to the indications and warnings of instability. I am hoping that the indications and warnings laid out by Robert Collins' in his seven phases of regime instability and collapse are still being used by the command in Korea.

19. N. Hamgyong Province faces potential shortage of vegetables following rains

dailynk.com · by Kang Mi Jin · August 20, 2020

The “normal” level of suffering is getting worse.

 

-----------

"In each succeeding war there is a tendency to proclaim as something new the principles under which it is conducted. Not only those who have never studied or experienced the realities of war, but also professional soldiers frequently fall into the error. But the principles of warfare as I learned them at West Point remain unchanged." 

- John J. Pershing, 'My Experiences in the World War'

 

"Patience strengthens the spirit, sweetens the temper, stifles anger, extinguishes envy, subdues pride, bridles the tongue." 

- George Horne

 

"The primary purpose of the Rolex is not as a timepiece but rather as a life insurance policy. When the situation goes pear-shaped and you've somehow made it to the airport, the Rolex buys you a seat on the last flight out of Heart of Darkness International Airport. As your aircraft circles the city, you look down at the rising columns of black smoke and imagine the scene downtown in the city square where they're chopping the few remaining Westerners up into monkey meat, you look at your wrist where your treasured timepiece used to be and you think 2 things: A) 'Well I guess the Rolex finally paid for itself,' and B) 'I can always buy another watch . . .'" 

-  Unknown