8/12/2020 News and Commentary- Korea
8/12/2020 News and Commentary- Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Andrew Narloch
1. Wartime OPCON transfer plan may face setback
2. Transfer of wartime operational control can wait
3. 18 percent of North Koreans now thought to own mobile phones
4. U.S. calls on S. Korea to stop its crackdown on NK human rights groups
5. Defectors say South Korea investigations threaten North Korean 'Underground Railroad'
6. OECD projects shallowest recession for Korea
7. Gov't plan to inspect defector groups provokes sharp backlash
8. The North Korean Economy: Interpreting North Korea's Puzzling Price Stability
9. German envoy says he's okay with Korea at G7
10. New daily virus cases bounce back to over 30 as church-linked infections rise
11. US military personnel must be tested for coronavirus before traveling here
12. Trump excessively touting success with NK for reelection
13. Inter-Korean barter pending approval; aid group helps displaced N. Koreans
14. Why Does South Korea Want Ballistic Missiles? Because It Can't Rely On America
15. North Korea Most Certainly Has a Coronavirus Problem
16. North Korea Steps Up Efforts To Reach Out To Foreign Audiences On Social Media
17. N.Korea Clamps down on 'Decadent' Pet Dogs
18. Who's Playing Whom? Trump's Unrequited Kim Jong-Un Obsession Is About One Thing
1. Wartime OPCON transfer plan may face setback
The Korea Times · August 11, 2020
I think Willliam Gallo's report (VOA) (mentioned in the article below) must have been broadcast only as I have not been able to find it online.
A researcher asked me to discuss the exercises and the OPCON transition and readiness versus FOC certification. Also the differences between combined command post training using computer simulation versus field training exercises with combat troops.
2. Transfer of wartime operational control can wait
A lot of issues covered in this short OpEd from the Donga Ilbo (note the mention of concern of potential withdrawal of US forces as well as controversy over the UN Command).
But the bottom line is both the ROK and US agreed on conditions based OPCON transition. I think military professionals will focus on objectively ensuring the conditions are met for the transition. President Moon and his supporters are time based and want the OPCON transition completed before he leaves office in 2022. Conditions based OPCON transition ensures the combined military force of the alliance can accomplish its priority missions of deterrence and defense ad the security of the ROK. Those who want a timeline based transition are willing to put the security of the ROK at risk.
3. 18 percent of North Koreans now thought to own mobile phones
This is very important for information and influence activities. While 6 million out of 25 million may not seem like a lot with the distribution of them throughout the north they provide an important conduit for transmitting information beyond those who have the cell phones.
4. U.S. calls on S. Korea to stop its crackdown on NK human rights groups
Yes. The South Korean government must stop this and instead protect and employ these escapees and others who focus on human rights.
President Moonis known to be a human rights lawyer. He should know better. Free people have a responsibility to try to help those who are oppressed. There are Korean groups in the South who are trying to do that. They should be praised and protected and honored.
5. Defectors say South Korea investigations threaten North Korean 'Underground Railroad'
Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin5 Min Read · August 11, 2020
The Korean underground railroad is very important to helping Koreans escape from the north.
6. OECD projects shallowest recession for Korea
7. Gov't plan to inspect defector groups provokes sharp backlash
Perhaps the backlash will influence the government but more important hopefully society's attitudes turn escapees will change for the better.
8. The North Korean Economy: Interpreting North Korea's Puzzling Price Stability
38 North-BENJAMIN KATZEFF SILBERSTEIN- AUGUST 11, 2020
9. German envoy says he's okay with Korea at G7
10. New daily virus cases bounce back to over 30 as church-linked infections rise
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · August 11, 2020
Community spread from large gatherings.
11. US military personnel must be tested for coronavirus before traveling here
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 11, 2020
12. Trump excessively touting success with NK for reelection
The Korea Times · August 11, 2020
I do not think this will change a single vote in November. However touting "success" really does piss off Kim Jong-un. Since he made his pledge not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs Trump has received all the po;itical benefit (in KJU's mind) whim he has received none. Kim must get sanctions relief in order to prove to the elite and the military that he can do what he says. He raised expectations in 2018 by saying he could be cessussful with this long con and would be able to "play Trump and Moon and get sanctions relief while still maintaining his nuclear weapons. He has failed and he is pissed. And Trump is rubbing his nose in it.
13. Inter-Korean barter pending approval; aid group helps displaced N. Koreans
koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · August 11, 2020
It will be interesting to read future UN Panel of Experts reports to see if this "process" has been abused. (and intra-Korea versus inter-Korean for those who want to think of one Korea and eventual unification, just saying).
14. Why Does South Korea Want Ballistic Missiles? Because It Can't Rely On America
Forbes · by Michael Peck · August 11, 2020
Ah...since 2003 there has been a huge effort for South Korea to develop independent warfighting capabilities. That was one of the original conditions for the OPCON transition. The Koreans have been working on their kill china concept and whether you agree with it or not, it is an independent war fighting capability and missile attack is a key part of attacking missile launch sites and missile infrastructure.
Note Chung Min Lee is quoted (I think extensively but in subsequent comments he seems to refer to Dr. Lee as "Chung").
15. North Korea Most Certainly Has a Coronavirus Problem
The National Interest · by Mark Episkopos · August 11, 2020
I think it most likely has a problem. If there is a widespread outbreak it could very well be more devastating than the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996. And this time it could lead to instability especially if there is a large outbreak within the military and security services.
16. North Korea Steps Up Efforts To Reach Out To Foreign Audiences On Social Media
NPR · by Anthony Kuhn · August 11, 2020
Yes, north Korea has entered the information age and seeks to exploit social media for propaganda purposes.
17. N.Korea Clamps down on 'Decadent' Pet Dogs
english.chosun.com-August 12, 2020
An indication of the food shortage but also a crackdown on foreign influence.
18. Who's Playing Whom? Trump's Unrequited Kim Jong-Un Obsession Is About One Thing
Esquire · by Jim Sciutto · August 11, 2020
Ah Mr. Sciutto you might want to have your research assistant double check. He just needed a couple of more clicks on his google search. When President Trump unilaterally said he wanted to cancel exercises on June 12, 2018 at his press conference in Singapore following his first meeting with Kim Jong-un he was referring to the then upcoming annual August exercise of Ulchi Freedom Guardian. But otherwise the history you are recounting and the point you are making are very important. It is painful to read a recounting of all the comments the President has made about our training and exercises.
But on the question of who is playing whom, we should remember that while we have not accomplished denuclearization (and we will not as long as the Kim family regime is in power) it is Kim who has failed in his long con. Yes you can criticize the President's unconventional, experimental, top down, pen pal diplomacy and his troubling views on alliance but the fact is he and President Moon have not lift sanctions and this is the biggest failure of Kim Jong-un's reign. he raised expectations among his elite and military (and among President Trump's political opposition) that he could get sanctions relief and keep his nuclear program. This failure is putting him under pressure inside Pyongyang. He has not been able to play Trump in this aspect. And of course by President Trump's definition he has achieved success. He got Kim to pledge not to test nuclear weapons and ICBMs and so far he has kept that pledge (though it is likely the military is prepared to test at any time). Kim's failure is also that Trump has achieved political benefit for halting testing but Kim has received no benefit whatsoever. As long as sanctions remain in place Kim continues to be a failure. So yes, criticize the President, but give him credit for causing Kim to fail.
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- Ronald Reagan
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- Sanford Bishop