News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1. 'The biggest monster' is spreading. And it’s not the Coronavirus.

2. Poland agrees to pay almost all costs of US troop presence

3. How can we know if professional military education works?

4. NWC Wargaming: Go big or Go home

5. Trump's revenge - pulling troops from Germany - will be costly

6. Beware the guns of August - in Asia

7. Who is running our universities? Administrators!  

8. COVID-19 and authoritarian regimes: China vs. Russia

9. America in the World

10. There may never be a 'silver bullet' for COVID-19, WHO warns

11. The sad story of superpower America's foreign policy failures

12. A defense contractor died after a bar fight with Marines, and some see a crime

13. Like NATO, but for economic warfare

14. The militia movement's warning of excessive federal power has come true. Where are the militias?

15. Graphic: the American political spectrum, 2020

16. How the pandemic defeated America

17. 'Be a bro': How a commander's sexism derailed this pilot training class - and brought down AETC leaders

18. "A guide to the American way of irregular war: an analytical memoir by Charles T Cleveland"

1. 'The biggest monster' is spreading. And it’s not the Coronavirus.

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · August 3, 2020

We have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time and deal with the pandemic, the economy, national security, and all the other public health threats such as those outlined below.

2. Poland agrees to pay almost all costs of US troop presence

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Smart political move on Poland's part. But they are not hosting 28,500 (Korea) or 34,000 (Germany) or 50,000 (Japan). When Poland builds the largest US military base outside of the US and pays 93% of the costs I will then be impressed.

3. How can we know if professional military education works?

warontherocks.com · by Megan J. Hennessey · August 3, 2020

How are we doing tactically, operationally, and strategically?

4. NWC Wargaming: Go big or Go home

paxsims.wordpress.com · by Rex Brynen · July 31, 2020

A passionate conclusion: "The Naval War College knows how to go big on wargaming, having done so in the past to global effect. It is time to do so again."

5. Trump's revenge - pulling troops from Germany - will be costly

The Hill · by Dov S. Zakheim, opinion contributor · July 31, 2020

A former DOD Comptroller is probably qualified to speak on costs. I think some would make the counterargument you can pay now to save later. But we know how the save later promise has worked out in the past.

6. Beware the guns of August - in Asia

Foreign Affairs · by Kevin Rudd · August 3, 2020

From Kevin "Barbara Tuchman" Rudd. "Intelligence men learn from their mistakes, and wise men learn from the mistakes from others." One of my favorite quotes.

7. Who is running our universities? Administrators!  

Forbes · by Richard Vedder · August 3, 2020

:-)

8. COVID-19 and authoritarian regimes: China vs. Russia

fpri.org · by Yaroslav Shevchenko · July 30, 2020

An interesting read from an author who is studying in China.

9. America in the World

National Review Online · by Jay Nordlinger · August 3, 2020

Check out the conclusion with the John Bolton quote!

10. There may never be a 'silver bullet' for COVID-19, WHO warns

af.reuters.com · by Michael Shields, Emma Farge

So we have to live with this new normal.

11. The sad story of superpower America's foreign policy failures

The National Interest · by Nikolas K. Gvosdev · July 24, 2020

Is the US swimming faster than the sharks? (see conclusion)

12. A defense contractor died after a bar fight with Marines, and some see a crime

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe · August 3, 2020

Another sad story (on multiple levels) in the SOF community.

13. Like NATO, but for economic warfare

defenseone.com · by Anthony Vinci

An interesting concept. 

I proposed a similar concept for the US in Asia.

While new ideas tend to focus on how to organize the military, the other instruments of power should also be considered. Perhaps it is time to think about creating a diplomatic organization in the region to coordinate all diplomatic activities and all information and influence activities to support US strategic objectives. A US Northeast Asia ambassador with the requisite supporting staff organization would provide the diplomatic and information effort necessary to synchronize the elements of national power. A third organization to support the economic instrument of power could be a Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center. These three organizations would not only bring the strength of the US instruments of power to the region in a new and dynamic way; they would also send a powerful message of commitment, especially if they were located in the right places. The Northeast Asia Command could be located in Korea, the Northeast Asia ambassador in Japan, and the Northeast Asia Economic Engagement Center in Taiwan. Of course, this would create political challenges. However, such a proposal could also enhance the strength and power of the US alliance structure in the region and provide allies with effective tools to compete with the revisionist powers and defend against the rogue powers as outlined in the National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy. These are merely proposals and may not be at all feasible. However, it is time to creatively reexamine employment of the instruments of power to see if the United States can be more effective in achieving its strategic objectives and maintaining and strengthening its alliances in Northeast Asia. (Page 71, https://s3.amazonaws.com/media.hudson.org/Cronin_Pathways%20to%20Peace%20-%20Achieving%20the%20Stable%20Transformation%20of%20the%20Korean%20Peninsula.pdf)

14. The militia movement's warning of excessive federal power has come true. Where are the militias?

The National Interest · by Amy Cooter · August 3, 2020

An interesting question. It is fortunate we did not have a Ruby Ridge or Waco at the Portland Federal Courthouse.

15. Graphic: the American political spectrum, 2020

lullabypit.com · by winterSmith · July 30, 2020

Again this is not meant as a partisan message but is intended merely to show one analysis of the political spectrum.  I think this is a very interesting perspective.  

You can view the larger graph at the web page.

16. How the pandemic defeated America

The Atlantic · by Ed Yong

A long read. I do not think the pandemic defeated America. If we are defeated it will be because we defeated ourselves.

17. 'Be a bro': How a commander's sexism derailed this pilot training class - and brought down AETC leaders

airforcetimes.com · by Stephen Losey · August 3, 2020

All the services can learn from this.

18. "A guide to the American way of irregular war: an analytical memoir by Charles T Cleveland"

linkedin.com · by Adam Cobb

An interesting analysis of LTG Cleveland's new RAND report and my recent OpEd. I guess I need to do a follow-up with a little more detail because I obviously did not make myself perfectly clear to this author as his analysis is not quite in line with my thinking.

-----------

"The very massiveness of our intervention actually reduced our leverage. So long as we were willing to use U.S. resources and manpower as a substitute for Vietnamese, their incentive for doing more was compromised."

 - Robert Komer, Bureaucracy At War.

"Nearly all soldiers-and this applies even to professional soldiers in peacetime-have a sane attitude towards war. They realise that it is disgusting, and that it may often be necessary."

-George Orwell, August 1944

"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything."

- George Bernard Shaw

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Ahyoung Shin

1.U.S. names new envoy for defense cost-sharing talks

2. Most S. Koreans support alliance with U.S. despite tensions: poll

3. Troop withdrawal likely to undermine South Korean public support for alliance with United States

4. N. Korea releases border dam water without prior notice: sources

5.  Bolton worries about Trump pulling troops from Korea

6. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles, says U.N. report

7. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles - UN

8. Despite maximum pressure sanctions, North Korea's economy grew in 2019

9. How Kim Jong Un won the war over North Korea's nukes

10. Nippon Steel to appeal South Korea asset seizure ruling as case threatens bilateral ties

11. China, S. Korea step up economic ties

12. Samsung to close its last computer plant in China as shipments drop  

13. South Korea and Japan flap could hit Trump's plans on China

14. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid U.N. report on miniaturized nuclear devices

15. N.Koreans gripped by fears of famine

16. Aid groups forced to borrow money from North Korea

17. Explosions in Hyesan kill nine, injure at least 30

18. Hundreds of Koreans flee as floods trigger landslides, sweep away cars (South Korea)

19. Why a nuclear-free North Korea is a dream that needs to die 

20. The survivor: last Korean war criminal in Japan wants recognition

1.U.S. names new envoy for defense cost-sharing talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 4, 2020

I can hear some private conversations in the background.  Since the new envoy is a fluent Japanese speaker the US is shifting focus to burden sharing negotiations with Japan.

2. Most S. Koreans support alliance with U.S. despite tensions: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · August 4, 2020

Yes, the alliance remains fairly resilient. But there can be no complacency. Yes, the Korean people are worried about a US troops withdrawal.

I also wonder how the anti-Alliance factions in South Korea use this information to try to target certain audiences to weaken support for the alliance.

3. Troop withdrawal likely to undermine South Korean public support for alliance with United States

thechicagocouncil.org · August 3, 2020

The 7 page report with graphs and data can be downloaded here.

4. N. Korea releases border dam water without prior notice: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · August 3, 2020

I can only imagine what the Imjin River looks like now (there are some places we could walk across at low tide (it has tidal effects on the western of part of the river from the Han RIver Estuary)). I recall one year when we conducted a river crossing of the Imjin and it flooded over and we were caught between the river and the DMZ. We were able to maneuver along the south edge of the DMZ to get back to our camp  Greaves - which was north of the Imjin as well) but it was quite tricky as we had to pass through ROK defensive sectors and we did not have prior permission. Fortunately good liaison helped us to overcome the inevitable friction.

5.  Bolton worries about Trump pulling troops from Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I kind of wish Ambassador Bolton would not make these comments. Some will be opposed to anything he says and will want to do the opposite.

But regarding withdrawal the question is can the SECDEF certify that such a withdrawal will not harm US or alliance security interests? This is required by Congress which has language in the last 3 NDAAs that not funds will be appropriated and authorized to reduce the number of troops below the 28,500 threshold without SECDEF certification that there is no harm to US and allied national security (and consultation with our allies, Korea and Japan).

6. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles, says U.N. report

Reuters · by Michelle Nichols · August 3, 2020

This still seems to be alluding to a new report and not the one from March. It says it was submitted on Monday. But it is a significant development if the regime has miniaturized nuclear devices that can be mounted on a missile.

7. North Korea has 'probably' developed nuclear devices to fit ballistic missiles – UN

The Guardian · August 4, 2020

This is obviously one of the most important capabilities the North must develop. If this is confirmed, we are probably at the most dangerous point in history on the Korean peninsula - though "several countries believing" is hardly intelligence confirmation. But I would not underestimate the North and its scientists.

I do expect the regime and its Propaganda and Agitation Department are trying to figure out how to exploit this in its blackmail diplomacy. That of course could backfire if it starts claiming it has this capability. And of course we are faced with the proverbial question, "What do you do not Lieutenant?" My initial counsel: do not overreact, play our long game to beat his long con, execute a superior form of political warfare built on a foundation of deterrence, and seek the (correct) answer to the "Korea question."

8. Despite maximum pressure sanctions, North Korea's economy grew in 2019

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · August 3, 2020

Another argument to give up and accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. I am tired of these pieces but they have traction among some political factions so we must read them.

9. How Kim Jong Un won the war over North Korea's nukes

thedailybeast · by David Axe · August 4, 2020

Here is the problem I have with co-existence (that is all I will focus on in this article/book review). Those who advocate for it assume the regime would be happy with co-existence. I do not believe it would ever be satisfied with co-existence. For the regime it is a zero sum game - the North's existence and the South's non-existence. That said I believe we can cope, contain, and manage the situation while seeking the long term acceptable, durable political arrangement that solves the Korea question thus bringing an end to the nuclear threats against the South and the world and the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the North.

10. Nippon Steel to appeal South Korea asset seizure ruling as case threatens bilateral ties

Reuters · by Yuka Obayashi, Hyonhee Shin · August 4, 2020

For the South Korean legal experts:  Could an appeals ruling overturn the original court decision? And for the Korea-Japan experts, if the decision was overturned would that reduce the friction between Japan and Korea? Would a ruling that simply prevents asset seizure be "good enough" to reduce tension?  E.g., the original decision stands but it cannot be enforced?

12. Samsung to close its last computer plant in China as shipments drop

Forbes · by Donald Kirk · August 3, 2020

In a nutshell: "improve the efficiency of its supply chain amid rising geopolitical tensions."

13. South Korea and Japan Flap Could Hit Trump's Plans on China

Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · August 3, 2020

But I do not see the “flap” being sufficiently solved any time soon.

14. Military closely monitoring N. Korea amid U.N. report on miniaturized nuclear devices

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · August 4, 2020

This headline makes it seem like the military was not closely monitoring the north until this new UN report came out. I think it would be a mistake to assume the military and intelligence services (of the South and US) were not monitoring for this key development. As noted even the South Korean 2018 white paper described the possible developments.

15. N.Koreans gripped by fears of famine

english.chosun.com · August 4, 2020

Kim Jong-un's policy choices. Every time we read an article like this we need to be asking how Kim Jong-un could solve this problem for the Koran people in the North? The hardships the Korean people suffer are a direct result of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions. And UN and US sanctions are a result of those same policy decisions. It is not the sanctions that cause the suffering. It is Kim Jong-un's decision making. Yes, natural disasters have a huge effect as does the coronavirus. The international community has long stood ready to provide humanitarian assistance but again it is decision making by Kim Jong-un that hinders such assistance.

16. Aid groups forced to borrow money from North Korea

Financial Times · by Edward White · August 3, 2020

Again it is Kim Jong-un's policy decision that causes this unusual phenomenon. When banks talk about reputational issues that is another indication that they are acting this way and making such an assessment because of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions.  I apologize for continuing to beat the dead horse but I cannot be an apologist for Kim Jong-un's actions)

17. Explosions in Hyesan kill nine, injure at least 30

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · August 4, 2020

No fire trucks to assist. Investigation quickly concluded resulting in no compensation for losses because the incident was due to "carelessness." And most important of all, authorities are concerned with the safe evacuation of Kim Il-sung's and Kim Jong-il's portraits from people's homes - another opportunity to demonstrate personal loyalty to the regime.

We should note that Hyesan is on the border with China where a lot of smuggling takes place. We have also seen nascent signs of resistance there in the past such as reports of graffiti on regime statues among other low level of resistance.

18. Hundreds of Koreans flee as floods trigger landslides, sweep away cars (South Korea)

Reuters · August 4, 2020

If it is bad in the South it will be worse in the North if they get the same kind of monsoon rains.

19. Why a nuclear-free North Korea is a dream that needs to die

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · August 3, 2020

Is sound policy sacrificing the national security of the US and South Korea?

20. The survivor: last Korean war criminal in Japan wants recognition

Reuters · by Ju-min Park · August 4, 2020

A tragic story on a number of levels but also some fascinating history we do not really think about or study (though we all know the Bridge on the River Kwai).

-----------

"The very massiveness of our intervention actually reduced our leverage. So long as we were willing to use U.S. resources and manpower as a substitute for Vietnamese, their incentive for doing more was compromised."

 - Robert Komer, Bureaucracy At War.

"Nearly all soldiers-and this applies even to professional soldiers in peacetime-have a sane attitude towards war. They realise that it is disgusting, and that it may often be necessary."

-George Orwell, August 1944

"Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything."

- George Bernard Shaw

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.         

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there's more to the story

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won't require confirmation

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

8. 30 years after our 'endless wars' in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

9. Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

10. WHO calls COVID-19 'once-in-a-century health crisis'

11. 'Clean Up This Mess': The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi's Hard Line

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in 'military lab' after fleeing to US

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

15. Debate begins for who's first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

16. Washington isn't listening to the Air Force and Space Force

17. Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

18. Army's Top General Says He's Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

19. Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military's self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

1. Hong Kong issues arrest warrant for U.S. citizen under new national security law

CNBC · by Eric Baculinao and Adela Suliman · August 2, 2020

I am surprised it took this long.  I fear for all US citizens in Hong Kong.

2. Where the System May Break (Election Wargame)

defenseone.com · by David Frum · July 31, 2020

Every government official, federal, state, and local should be committed to ensure the integrity of our election system.  This should not be a partisan issue (but I know that is a naive thought).

3. How ISIS Made Money on Facebook

defenseone.com · by Jenna Scatena

Follow the money.  I just did not think you would have to follow-it on Facebook.

4. 75 years after atomic bombs fell on Japan, these authors say there's more to the story

dailynews.com · by Stuart Miller · August 2, 2020

Interesting review essay of some new books.  Some interesting histories.

5. The Worm is in the Fruit: A Rising Strategic Foe Inside NATO

rusi.org · July 31, 2020

Spoiler alert: Turkey.

6. Retired general appointed to Trump administration in position that won't require confirmation

The Washington Post

I guess President Trump really wants BG Tata in the Pentagon.

7. Sending Special Operations Forces into the Great-Power Competition

Small Wars Journal· by Tim Nichols

I am reminded of some of the thinking that took place in the 1980's when SOF in particular SF were trying to ensure relevance.  The author seems to assume the only employment of military forces will be in conventional conflict and he of course wants to have SOF shift focus to support that.  

But great power competition is so much more and there is going to be a lot of conflict and competition below the threshold of conventional combat operations. 

The author does not mention any of the SOF "trinities" and the comparative advantage of SOF.  Irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantages of SOF in influence, governance and support to indigenous forces and populations to support the national security and defense strategies.

8. 30 years after our 'endless wars' in the Middle East began, still no end in sight

The Brookings Institution · by Bruce Riedel · July 27, 2020

What is the long arc of history bending toward?  More endless war?

9.  Security for Whom? The Case for a Decolonial IR

georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org · by Emma Jouenne · August 1, 2020

Lots of schools of thought in security. Everyone in the security field should be a "gatecrasher."

10. WHO calls COVID-19 'once-in-a-century health crisis'

donga.com ·August 3, 2020

11. 'Clean Up This Mess': The Chinese Thinkers Behind Xi's Hard Line

The New York Times · by Chris Buckley · August 2, 2020

This conclusion quote seems to explain it all:  "Sorry, the goal now is not Westernization; it's the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."

12. Army Guard begins to reorganize force into eight divisions to prepare for possible fights with Russia and China

Stars and Stripes

Are we itching to violate the Princess Bride's admonition and have a land war in Asia?

13. Watch: Chinese scientist claims Covid-19 started in 'military lab' after fleeing to US

nzherald.co.nz

Video at the link. 

14. US Strategic Command now analyzes daily deterrence risks for all combatant commands

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · July 31, 2020

Probably one of the hardest things to do is measure deterrence and risk because it is really based on human psychology and decision making.  We can have the best algorithms and AI but it is difficult to predict what kind of decision, Xi or Putin or the regimes in Iran and north Korea are going to do and to know what really deters them and what is their threshold for pain.  But the analysis must be done (or attempted) even if it is not an exact science.

15. Debate begins for who's first in line for COVID-19 vaccine

AP · by Lauran Neergaard · August 2, 2020

Debate may not be a strong enough word.  When the plans for vaccination are released and the priorities established it will probably generate controversy on a level we have not seen lately

16. Washington isn't listening to the Air Force and Space Force

Defense News · by Col. Keith Zuegel (ret.) · July 31, 2020

I just hope it will listen to the real Space Force and Air Force and not the ones on the Netflix show "Space Force."  That show is the most irreverent satire I have seen in a long time.

17.  Chinese Propaganda Campaign Blames Pandemic on U.S. Army Facility Closed in 1969

freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · August 2, 2020

Yes, but...  Fort Detrick was never closed.  The best propaganda always has elements of truth. Few are going to parse it and note that it was only the offensive bio-weapons lab that was declared closed in 1969.  But the basic idea of the article is on the right track - China will admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations. 

18. Army's Top General Says He's Reassured Allies That US Troops Will Stay Out of Policing

military.com · by Richard Sisk · August 1, 2020

It is interesting that our allies are concerned about this.  But here is the buried lede: "In the Indo-Pacific region, the Army's top priority is developing long-range, precision-fire artillery and missiles to counter China, and securing basing rights from allies for the weapons systems, McConville said."

19.  Managing Chaos: Biosecurity in a Post-COVID-19 America

thestrategybridge.org · by Bilva Chandra and Andrew Gonzalez · August 3, 2020

We need to be conducting the AAR for COVID-19 with the idea that this is a rehearsal for a bio-weapons attack on many levels - look at the strategic effects - crippling our economy - to the tactical and operational issues for our military - can we learn to "fight through" actual attacks in the future?  Our adversaries are looking at this and trying to determine the efficacy of employing biological weapons (probably not a man made COVID attack but biological weapons on some scale if they believe they can achieve. an advantage in support of strategic objectives.

20. Operation Burnham: the New Zealand military's self-inflicted wounds will not heal by themselves

theconversation.com · by Alexander Gillespie

We can all learn from this.

------------------------

"Does what happened keep you from acting with justice, generosity, self-control, sanity, prudence, honesty, humility, or straightforwardness?" 

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

"Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others." 

-  J .F.C. Fuller

"The problem with smart people is that they are used to seeking and finding the right answer; unfortunately, in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn't one. In fact, even after the fact, there is no way to determine that one's strategy choice was "right," because there is no way to judge the relative quality of any path against all the paths not actually chosen. There are no double-blind experiments in strategy."

- Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review, June 12, 2014

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

16. Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

17. Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

18. Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

1. Issue of USFK that comes after defense cost negotiations

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Of course the Koreans are paying close attention to what is happening with troop adjustments in Europe. They are parsing every word for clues about what will happen with US forces in Korea.  They are paying attention to Nate Freier's Army War College report on the Army in INDOPACOM.

2. U.S. Arms Control Special Envoy tweets photos of nuclear assets

donga.com · August 3, 2020

Kim and Xi: this photo is for you.

3. The cycle of retaliation should be broken (Japan - Korea)

donga.com · August 3, 2020

The cycle of retaliation should be broken

4. Commentary: South Korea will outperform many developed economies in this coronavirus downturn

channelnewsasia.com · by Troy Stangarone

I was not expecting to read this.  Good analysis from Troy Stangerone.

5. UN report: N.Korea continues nuclear development

www3.nhk.or.jp

I am not sure which report the NHK is talking about.  Is this the last UN Panel of Experts report or is there a new one that has not been released?

6. Crisis in 2021? (Korean Peninsula)

m.koreatimes.co.kr · John Burton· August 3, 2020

North Korea Organization and Guidance Department: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial · Robert Collins· 2019

My crystal ball is kind of hazy.  Certainly there could be a crisis.  Your guess is as good as mine.

It is Military First Politics versus policy.  Also, the Byungjin policy ended in 2018. 

Just as an aside, I call your attention to Robert Collins' important analysis here.  This is just an excerpt. There is a lot of detail in Bob's report.

7. N.Korea Keeps Earning Illegal Cash for Nuke Development

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

I still have not found the most recent UN Panel of Experts report.

8. N.Korea Tightens Lockdown

english.chosun.com· August 3, 2020

All the indicators seem to be there.  But still no definitive reports on what is happening and of course other than the defector report there has been no admission of an outbreak by the regime.  north Korea i see neither doing an excellent job of suppressing information or its draconian population and resources control measures are really preventing or mitigating an outbreak. Or a combination of both!

9. Heavy rain pummels central S. Korea; casualties reported in landslides

en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · August 3, 2020

I wonder how bad it is in the north.  With the hillsides stripped of vegetation the potential for landslides is even greater in the north and they do not need to receive as much rain as is falling in the South.

10. Seven more US troops test positive for coronavirus upon arrival in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · Kim Gamel· August 3, 2020

11. New virus cases drop to 23, local infections at 3-month low

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · August 3, 2020

South Korea is managing.

12. Donald Trump the deal maker may look to North Korea for US election 'October surprise'

SCMP · Eduardo Baptista· August 3, 2020

I doubt President Trump is going to use north Korea for an October Surprise.  To get a deal with north Korea there would have to be immediate sanctions relief and that would set the clock back two decades as Kim's blackmail diplomacy would be completely justified as he would have achieved a key objective in his long con.

But I do hope journalists will keep calling attention to an October Surprise because if/when something happens it will not be a surprise so perhaps that in itself will be a deterrent - if you cannot achieve objectives because they are dependent on surprise then why take the action at all?

13. Analysis | Why Japan's Feud With South Korea Isn't Going Away

The Washington Post · by Isabel Reynolds

This is definitely not good for our linchpin and cornerstone alliances in Northeast Asia.

14. Japan Warns Korea over Asset Seizure

Things may go from bad to worse.

english.chosun.com  · August 3, 2020

15. There Shall Be No God But Kim Jong Un

The National Interest · by James W. Carr · August 2, 2020

The authors are commissioners on the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom. I am happy to see these recommendations such as making human rights an agenda item in negotiations having DRL prioritize north Korean information projects, and to fill the position of the special Envoy for Human Rights in North Korea.

Religious beliefs are very important for the situation in north Korea.  First, they undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime Second, they give the Koran people hope.  Third, religion will be very important during the unification process when the regime is no longer in power and the Juche ideology has been found to be a lie.  Korans in the north will be hungry for faith in some belief and there will be nothing that will provide this better than religion, any religion.

16.  Forced Abortions, Collective Punishment: Here's What Happens to Women Who Try to Escape North Korea

Vice · by Junhyup Kwon

I hate to keep forwarding these tragic and horrific stories. But we cannot let the evil nature of the Kim family regime go unnoticed and unchecked.  And let us think for at least a moment about the suffering that is taking place every day in north Korea and to those who are trying to escape the hell that is north Korea.

17.  Unification ministry denies probe into civic groups targets N.K. defectors

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · August 3, 2020

The MOU doth protest too much.

18.  Kaesong's civil defense forces in a state of "emergency mobilization"

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong ·August 3, 2020

This is what mobilization is all about in north Korea -the civilian population forced to provide rations for the "militia." I guess these militiamen are not minutemen.

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"Does what happened keep you from acting with justice, generosity, self-control, sanity, prudence, honesty, humility, or straightforwardness?" 

- Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

"Until you learn to teach yourself you will never be taught by others." 

-  J .F.C. Fuller

"The problem with smart people is that they are used to seeking and finding the right answer; unfortunately, in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn't one. In fact, even after the fact, there is no way to determine that one's strategy choice was "right," because there is no way to judge the relative quality of any path against all the paths not actually chosen. There are no double-blind experiments in strategy."

- Roger L. Martin, Harvard Business Review, June 12, 2014

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse: populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism

2. DHS official whose office compiled ‘intelligence reports’ on journalists and protesters has been removed from his job

3. Pakistani separatist groups unite to target China's Belt and Road

4. The captive mind and America’s resegregation

5. USDA identifies several seeds from mysterious China packets

6. Comparing protest movements

7. Are US cities seeing a surge in violent crime as Trump claims?

8. Let's keep the NDAA focused on defense

9. Duterte says Beijing is 'in possession' of South China Sea

10. Army examining where to base new weapons in Indo Pacific

11. Boeing wins $265 million to build more special ops Chinook helios

12. AFRICOM begins search for new headquarters home

13. Duterte to skip AFP change of command ceremony

14. Black Lives Matter: "We will burn down this system" - Part II

15. Political junkies are killing our democracy

16. Research on voting by mail says it’s safe - from fraud and disease

1. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse: populism, nativism, isolationism, and protectionism

George W. Bush Presidential Center · July 21, 2020

A 25-minute video of Dr. Rice can be found here.

2. DHS official whose office compiled ‘intelligence reports’ on journalists and protesters has been removed from his job

Washington Post · by Shane Harris & Miroff · August 1, 2020

There is no excuse for this. A career official should know better. I have previously forwarded the Church Committee report as a reminder. Although there was no DHS back then, there is no excuse for DHS conducting this kind of intelligence collection on Americans and the press.

3. Pakistani separatist groups unite to target China's Belt and Road

Nikkei Asian Review · by Adnan Aamir · August 1, 2020

An interesting development. It will be interesting to see how China handles this.

4. The captive mind and America’s resegregation

Wall Street Journal · by Andrew A. Michta · July 31, 2020

Is this the only choice? Or can we choose to live up to the ideals of our founding documents, the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution?

I think one major problem is that one partisan tribal faction is grouping all protesters and all people who have grievances or who support solving those grievances into the neo-Marxist narrative group. Those partisans describe the actions of the neo-Marxists as an insurgency. That may be correct, but one of the basic tenets of counter-insurgency is to separate the population from the insurgents. One of the ways of doing that would be to address the legitimate grievances, which it seems the majority of the American population seems to believe exists. But instead, there are those who will use the broad brush to paint all protesters as radicals, rather than recognizing that it is not only the right of the people to assemble to protest their grievances, but that it is an American tradition that should be respected and cherished.  Unfortunately, those in power simply view it as a monolithic threat and act accordingly (and incorrectly), which only fans the flames.

5. USDA identifies several seeds from mysterious China packets

Axios · by Ursula Perano · August 1, 2020

Don't brush this off as a "brushing scam."

6. Comparing protest movements

Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · July 30, 2020

When I was in Korea from 86-88 I remember the smell of tear gas as being quite common.

But I wonder about Don's description of violence in the US.

7. Are US cities seeing a surge in violent crime as Trump claims?

BBC · by Jake Horton · August 2, 2020

Some interesting data to consider.

8. Let's keep the NDAA focused on defense

Real Clear Defense · by Dakota Wood · August 1, 2020

It would be nice, but I think Congress finds the "flexibility" of the NDAA useful to further its agenda.

9. Duterte says Beijing is 'in possession' of South China Sea

Nikkei Asian Review · by Cliff Venzon · July 27, 2020

This seems to me to be logic similar to those who say we need to accept North Korea as a nuclear state.

I do like the chart below that says we have 20 aircraft carriers. Must be including amphibs and counting “flat decks.”

10. Army Examining Where to Base New Weapons in Indo Pacific

National Defense · by Mandy Mayfield · July 31, 2020

Which friends, partners, and allies will allow us to base long range precision missiles? I wonder if any will if we make them pay us to host them. I am pretty sure if we negotiate to base them somewhere, the host nation will probably demand the concession that they will provide no funds to support them since they are the ones assuming risk and since we are basing them there because it serves US interests (as do all our forces in theater).

11. Boeing wins $265 million to build more special ops Chinook helos

Defense News · by Jen Judson · July 31, 2020

The MH-47: one of the best helicopters ever built.

12. AFRICOM begins search for new headquarters home

Stars & Stripes · by John Vandiver · July 31, 2020

13. Duterte to skip AFP change of command ceremony

ABS-CBN News · August 2, 2020

Not really surprised and, as the article notes, not really necessary that he be present for the change of command. Surely it is an indication of how he views the military.

14. Black Lives Matter: "We will burn down this system" - Part II

Gatestone Institute · by Soeren Kern · August 2, 2020

As I have written, there are people who view BLM and antifa as insurgent organizations. Certainly, the author of this piece does. There are four key tasks in conducting counterinsurgency:

1. Deny insurgent sanctuary
2. Deny Insurgent mobility
3. Deny insurgent access to resources
4. Separate the population from insurgents

If we believe that BLM is an insurgency, we should consider the correct application of counterinsurgency principles, the most important being separating the people from the insurgents (and, specifically, the radical leadership). Instead, this author and others (despite weak denials) are lumping all protesters together and want to counter them by such cries as "rule of law" (when they really mean rule by law to maintain their own power). The most important action our government could take right now is to acknowledge the grievances, commit to solving them, and, thus, in taking steps to undermine the radical ideology outlined below, separate the population from the radical leadership. Unfortunately, our current actions are driving some of the population toward the radical ideology.

That said, protesters who are protesting legitimate grievances (of which there are a number of them) also have a responsibility to disavow the ideas below if they are Americans who value individual liberty, freedom, liberal democracy, free market economy, rule of law, and human rights. They have a responsibility to separate themselves from the subversive ideology below, and they should be advised to do so. To have any effect, the advice should be respectfully provided while acknowledging that their grievances are respected and understood.

The bottom line is that, based on reports of polls, it seems the vast majority of Americans support solving the grievances of the BLM movement. The vast majority of those Americans do not support the radical ideology below and, if we make it seem as if they do, if we do not respect their right to protest, and – most importantly – if we do not address those legitimate grievances because of our fear of the radical ideology below, then we are in for real difficult times ahead.

15. Political junkies are killing our democracy

The Bulwark · by Claire Potter · August 2, 2020

Reflect before react. Good advice.

16. Research on voting by mail says it’s safe - from fraud and disease

The Conversation · by Edie Goldenberg · July 16, 2020

"Guerrilla Strategy is the only strategy possible for an oppressed people."

-Kao Kang (quoted in Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare)

"Guerrilla war is a kind of war waged by the few but dependent on the support of the many."

-B.H. Liddel Hart

"If historical experience teaches us anything about revolutionary guerrilla war, it is that military measures alone will not suffice."

-Brig Gen S.B. Griffith in the Introduction to Mao's On Guerrilla Warfare, 1961