9/23/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party by H. R. McMaster
2. The world is losing the money laundering fight
3. Who is a terrorist, actually? by Daniel L. Byman
4. Marine Corps’ Builds New Littoral Regiment, Eye On Fake Chinese Islands
5. The Military’s Latest Wearables Can Detect Illness Two Days Before You Get Sick
6. Why skepticism -- not China -- may be the greatest threat to US Pacific strategy
7. Biden Wants to Keep Special Ops in the Mideast. That Doesn’t Mean More ‘Forever Wars,’ His Adviser Says
8. Duterte Gets Tough on China, Leaning Back to Old Ally America
9. Rodrigo Duterte: The Weak Strongman of the Philippines
10. Facebook deletes several fake Chinese accounts targeting Trump and Biden, in first takedown of its kind
11. How Serious Are Threats to the U.S. Homeland?
12. Formal Ties With U.S.? Not For Now, Says Taiwan Foreign Minister
13. China is escalating its punishment diplomacy
14. US strategic clarity on Taiwan could deter China
15. A consensus-driven joint concept for all-domain warfare will fall short
16. The Transformation of Diplomacy- How to Save the State Department
17. China's New War Game Doesn't Prove It Could Successfully Invade Taiwan
18. We Need to Bridge the Gap Between the COIN Generation and the Next Generation
1. How to Counter the Chinese Communist Party by H. R. McMaster
National Review Online · by H. R. McMaster · September 22, 2020
Just received his book last evening from Amazon. Looking forward to reading it this weekend.
2. The world is losing the money laundering fight
The Sydney Morning Herald · by Elisa Martinuzzi · September 22, 2020
Does not sound good. We have to protect our financial systems.
3. Who is a terrorist, actually? by Daniel L. Byman
The Brookings Institution · by Daniel L. Byman · September 22, 2020
I hope this is read objectively but it likely will not be by the political tribes.
4. Marine Corps’ Builds New Littoral Regiment, Eye On Fake Chinese Islands
breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary
Fake Chinese islands!! A Marine will say my grandfather captured Iwo Jima and all I got was a fake Chinese island. (Apologies for the attempt at humor)
5. The Military’s Latest Wearables Can Detect Illness Two Days Before You Get Sick
defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker
A fascinating capability. I hope it works.
6. Why skepticism -- not China -- may be the greatest threat to US Pacific strategy
Washington Examiner · by Craig Singleton · September 23, 2020
Key point: "Contrary to headlines about the importance of new Department of Defense investment in the region, America’s success in the Western Pacific will ultimately rise and fall based on positive political outcomes as much as it will by military ones."
For our adversaries politics is war by other means. We must understand that is the essence of Great Power Competition even as we want to define Great Power Competition as state-on-state warfare.
7. Biden Wants to Keep Special Ops in the Mideast. That Doesn’t Mean More ‘Forever Wars,’ His Adviser Says
TIME · by Kimberly Dozier · September 23, 2020
A long read on SOF from Kim Dozier. Extensive quotes from Colin Kahl and LTG (RET) Mike Nagata. This is worth the read for Mike's quotes and observations on SOF in Syria alone.
8. Duterte Gets Tough on China, Leaning Back to Old Ally America
Bloomberg · by Philip Heijmans and Andreo Calonzo · September 23, 2020
9. Rodrigo Duterte: The Weak Strongman of the Philippines
thediplomat.com · by Mong Palatino · September 21, 2020
Key points: "Duterte has so far sought to overcome these various crises by launching ferocious attacks on activists, shutting down of critical media networks and passing a draconian anti-terror law. Duterte’s health is deteriorating but he seems hellbent in defending his presidency. But if Duterte’s health continues to decline, or he is otherwise perceived to be ailing, this could be a quandary for the ruling party as the nation moves toward the 2022 presidential elections."
10. Facebook deletes several fake Chinese accounts targeting Trump and Biden, in first takedown of its kind
The Washington Post · September 22, 2020
I think we need to purge our biases that say China, Russia, Iran and others want one candidate to win over the other. Their actions are not really focused on supporting candidates for the purposes of them winning. Their intention is solely to sow division in the US and undermine the legitimacy of the American democratic process. And of course they want to harm democracies beyond the US as well.
But this is an interesting connection to the Philippines.
11. How Serious Are Threats to the U.S. Homeland?
lawfareblog.com · by Daniel Byman and Seamus Hughes · September 18, 2020
Conclusion: "Action by counterterrorism professionals at the FBI and the National Counterterrorism Center is vital not only for keeping the country safe but also for allowing Americans to mobilize to discuss contentious issues and advocate for their preferred positions without the specter of violence hanging over them. Violence and the fear of it can contaminate politics, leading to the dismissal of different viewpoints as extremist and to calls for government crackdowns on legitimate dissent. At the same time, the more divided the country is, the easier it is for even small attacks to have a disproportionate effect on America and further weaken national cohesion."
12. Formal Ties With U.S.? Not For Now, Says Taiwan Foreign Minister
NPR · by John Ruwitch · September 22, 2020
Excellent statement form Minister Wu: "Taiwan is on the front line of the democracies fighting for freedom, democracy and democratic way of life. We have the responsibility to make sure that democracy is successful, and if we want to make sure that democracy in Taiwan is a success, I would certainly urge the international community to voice more support for Taiwan."
13. China is escalating its punishment diplomacy
Financial Times · by Jamil Anderlini · September 23, 2020
Key point: "Today, China claims to be the biggest trade partner to 130 countries and regions and the demonstration effect - “killing the chicken to scare the monkeys” as it is known in China - is often enough to cow others into compliance."
14. US strategic clarity on Taiwan could deter China
asiatimes.com · by Urban C. Lehner · September 23, 2020
15. A consensus-driven joint concept for all-domain warfare will fall short
Defense News · by Mark Gunzinger · September 18, 2020
I take his point but if we do not have consensus how do we expect to employ the concept? And if we cannot get consensus perhaps there is something wrong with the concept.
16. The Transformation of Diplomacy- How to Save the State Department
Foreign Affairs · by William J. Burns and Linda Thomas-Greenfield · September 23, 2020
Commitment to public service. (and respect for those who commit to public service)
Conclusion: "Through it all, however, we still remember vividly the sense of possibility and shared commitment to public service that drew the two of us and 30 other proud Americans to our Foreign Service entering class all those years ago. Today, there is a new generation of diplomats capable of taking up that challenge—if only they are given a State Department and a mission worthy of their ambitions and of the country they will represent."
17. China's New War Game Doesn't Prove It Could Successfully Invade Taiwan
The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · September 22, 2020
Beijing left out certain important possibilities and there are many unknown unknowns.
18. We Need to Bridge the Gap Between the COIN Generation and the Next Generation
fromthegreennotebook.com · by Scott Kelly · September 21, 2020
-------------------
"A room without books is like a body without a soul."
- Cicero
"There is no friend as loyal as a book."
- Ernest Hemingway
"I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing."
- Socrates
9/23/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech at 75th Session of United Nations General Assembly
2. Trump leaves out N. Korea for first time in U.N. speech
3. Republic of Korea stresses support for developing nations during COVID-19
4. Korean War 'Must End, Completely and for Good,' Moon Tells UN
5. Possible missile carrier spotted at N.Korea parade practice, U.S. think-tank says
6. Fisheries official goes missing in waters near sea border with N. Korea
7. North Korea: Not Another Summit Until Progress at Working-Level Talks
8. What tighter Party membership requirements may say about North Korean society
9. N. Korea plans outdoor fireworks show to celebrate Party Foundation Day
10. Moon says military plays 'safety pin' role in tumultuous peace process
11. Kim Jong-un Insists N.Korea Needs Nuclear Deterrent
12. North Korea prepares for military parade despite pandemic fears
13. UN Experts See North Korean Nuclear Gains | Arms Control Association
14. Moon's offer of declaring end to Korean War aimed at jump-starting peace process, Cheong Wa Dae says
15. Pyongyang General Hospital project hits a snag: defective insulators
16.Kim Jong-un FURY: North Korean faces death by firing squad for petty crime
17. Moon's UN speech falls flat
18. Defense minister to take Air Force tanker plane to U.S. for Opcon talks
1. Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech at 75th Session of United Nations General Assembly
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 23, 2020
A lot of Korean media reporting (and some UN reporting) on President Moon's speech.
President Moon delivered two speeches at the UN this week, one representing MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey, and Australia), and one to the UN General Assembly. Both speeches show that President Moon acted as an international statesman. He offered sound analysis of key international issues and made superb recommendations to the international community.
However, his remarks on north Korea will likely fall on deaf ears. While South Korea represents a responsible member of the international community, north Korea does not act in any way like a responsible member.
Kim Jong-un does not share Moon Jae-in's vision for peace on the peninsula. The only peace that will satisfy him is one in which the north dominates the entire peninsula and the South ceases to exist. Kim interprets Moon's call for peace as a subversive effort to undermine the regime. In fact, Kim is mirror-imaging because his real strategy remains based on subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and, when necessary and possible, the use of force to dominate the peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.
The ROK, the US, and the international community must re-examine their assumptions about north Korea and develop new policies and strategies that recognize that as long as Kim Jong-un is in power the north will never act as a responsible member of the international community.
2. Trump leaves out N. Korea for first time in U.N. speech
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · September 23, 2020
I wonder if Kim Jong-un will feel slighted? He will make up for it with his parade on October 10. That will show the world!
On a more serious note, I think both the PRC and the US left out north Korea because they do not want to publicly engage on the issue for their own strategic reasons. The PRC knows the regime is facing significant internal challenges and wants to ensure stability so it does not want to cause the north to react. The US also does not want to cause a reaction in the north so POTUS can tout his foreign policy "success" with no nuclear testing and no ICBM test launches. He does not want an October Surprise that would jeopardize what he describes as a success.
3. Republic of Korea stresses support for developing nations during COVID-19
news.un.org · September 22, 2020
Report from the UN news on President Moon's speech.
4. Korean War 'Must End, Completely and for Good,' Moon Tells UN
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee · September 22, 2020
President Moon is doubling down on a peace process. What is Kim Jong-un going to have to do to make us understand that our assumption that he wants peace and peaceful co-existence is false?
That said it would be interesting if the south could generate a peace process and bring Kim to the table. The emphasis would be on the word "process" which would take a long time. It took more than two years just to negotiate an Armistice. But if Kim was willing to come to the table it would be. to support his strategy of subversion and he would conduct his political warfare with Juche characteristics to support his long con and achieve his objectives to dominate the peninsula.
5. Possible missile carrier spotted at N.Korea parade practice, U.S. think-tank says
Reuters · by Josh Smith · September 23, 2020
A TEL possibly spotted while President Moon is calling for peace and an end of the war.
6. Fisheries official goes missing in waters near sea border with N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 23, 2020
The north conducting another kidnapping operation? But finding only his shoes aboard is not a good sign.
7. North Korea: Not Another Summit Until Progress at Working-Level Talks
heritage.org · by Bruce Klingner
Excellent run down from Bruce Klingner. A wise conclusion: The United States should remain open to a negotiated diplomatic resolution to the long-standing North Korean nuclear problem. But Washington should avoid being over-eager to grab at a tempting diplomatic agreement that does not reduce North Korea's military threat but could lead to reduced U.S. pressure or military deterrence in South Korea. As the United States continues pressing for a well-crafted comprehensive agreement, it should maintain current force levels in South Korea and Japan.
But the $64,000 questions is will Kim ever allow substantive working level talks?
8. What tighter Party membership requirements may say about North Korean society
nkeconwatch.com · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · September 22, 2020
Key point: "The Party is still, perhaps now more because of the money-making opportunities it gives in the (semi-)private sector, an extremely important institution for social and political advancement, marketization or none."
9. N. Korea plans outdoor fireworks show to celebrate Party Foundation Day
dailynk.com · September 22, 2020
Recall Kim Yo Jong asking for a DVD of the US Independence Day celebration. I am sure she is trying to outdo the US show.
10. Moon says military plays 'safety pin' role in tumultuous peace process
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 23, 2020
I hope this is some kind of mistranslation. I think the analogy of the military as a safety pin will create all kinds of satirical memes. I am sure the military uniform will have a new badge added to it - the order of the safety pin.
But seriously, I think his intent is correct. The military provides the foundation for a peace process and provides the bulwark to deter war. It is the strength of the military that can support peace.
11. Kim Jong-un Insists N.Korea Needs Nuclear Deterrent
english.chosun.com · September 23, 2020
Kim Jong-un provides his almost completely honest assessment. He left out that his nuclear program supports blackmail diplomacy as well as provides a critical warfighting capability should Kim judge he can either win a war or he is forced to go to war by internal conditions that threaten the existence of the regime.
Key quote: "Continued strengthening of self-defense capabilities based on nuclear weapons guarantees our autonomy and right to live as well as the prosperity of our nation," he was quoted as saying."
12. North Korea prepares for military parade despite pandemic fears
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith
Because everyone loves a parade and it is the antidote for 3 natural disasters, a failed economy, and a pandemic. This is an example of Kim Jong-un's benevolence and how much he cares for the Korean people who are suffering in the north.
13. UN Experts See North Korean Nuclear Gains | Arms Control Association
armscontrol.org · by Julia Masterson · September 2020
No surprise here. But north Korea is not an arms control problem. For those who advocate establishing an arms control negotiations regime you will be giving Kim exactly what he wants which is to be recognized as a nuclear power and keep his nuclear program. And to agree to enter into the process he will demand the lifting of sanctions. Victory for the long con.
14. Moon's offer of declaring end to Korean War aimed at jump-starting peace process, Cheong Wa Dae says
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · September 23, 2020
How does a declaration of the end of the war work? Do both north and South Korea agree to it? DO they sign an agreement? Does the UN Command and the Chinese People's Volunteers also agree to it? What happens to UN Security Council Resolutions 82-85 which are still in effect? We should not forget that the UNSCrs designated the north as the aggressor who attacked the South and called on member states to come to the defense of South Korea's freedom.
15. Pyongyang General Hospital project hits a snag: defective insulators
dailynk.com · by Jim Yoo Jin · September 22, 2020
This is a problem for the regime as it wants this hospital open by October.
This will be another Kim Jong-un failure though we will probably see him blame others and punish them. But this is an interesting situation and shows the desperation of the regime: " North Korean authorities seemed to view the incident as serious enough to warrant punishment of the factory's management. The source explained, however, that the authorities were so concerned about finishing the hospital's construction on time that they left the factory management in place for the time being so that the facility's insulator production remained undisrupted."
16. Kim Jong-un FURY: North Korean faces death by firing squad for petty crime
Express · by Rebecca Perring · September 21, 2020
It may seem like a petty crime to us but information is a deadly threat to the legitimacy and survival of the Kim family regime.
17. Moon's UN speech falls flat
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja
Joongang Ilbo's criticism of the President's speech.
18. Defense minister to take Air Force tanker plane to U.S. for Opcon talks
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Kim Sang-Jin
--------------------
A room without books is like a body without a soul."
- Cicero
"There is no friend as loyal as a book."
- Ernest Hemingway
"I know that I am intelligent, because I know that I know nothing."
- Socrates
9/22/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Treasury sanctions key actors in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs
2. The US Navy has drifted badly off course
3. On a California tour, Pentagon chief scrutinizes a Navy in flux and a warship gutted by fire
4. After a grueling deployment, the carrier Eisenhower gets set for a dubious ‘double pump’
5. Our greatest national security threat is our national security establishment
6. Analysis: how Trump’s TikTok deal helps China
7. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an advocate for military women, will be buried at Arlington
8. Esper and Milley appear to adopt different strategies to deal with Trump as election approaches
9. Philippine Air Force receives first four of six Super Tucano aircraft
10. Secret CIA assessment: Putin ‘probably directing’ influence operation to denigrate Biden
11. Trump's former national security adviser warns of another 9/11-style attack in the future
12. Vatican, China prepare to renew historic deal to US anger
13. The U.S. Army should plan to send four divisions to Taiwan: Expert
14. Droned out of action: the distortion of US counter-terrorism in Somalia
15. DOD personnel proving productive, resilient during pandemic
16. In America's absence, China is taking Latin America by storm
17. Taiwan led the world in closing down for Covid-19, now it wants to do the same with opening back up
18. Commentary: most Americans want more global engagement
19. Latest tell-all, by former National Security Adviser McMaster, is not all about Trump
20. A scene breakdown of a Marine Corps ad created by an Oscar-winning duo
21. Military-style Marshall Plan needed to combat climate change, says Prince Charles
22. Edward Snowden agrees to give up more than $5 million from book and speeches
1. Treasury sanctions key actors in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs
US Department of the Treasury · September 21, 2020
I received the following comments from Dr. Bruce Becthol, who arguably knows more about North Korean support to Iran's missile program than anyone. I hope we do see another show drop with North Korean entities sanctioned for their activities with Iran.
2. The US Navy has drifted badly off course
Defense One · by John R. Kroger · September 21, 2020
This is quite a critique. I will be interested in hearing the assessment of naval professionals. I will forward CDR Salamander's blog post with his views.
Even as a former Army guy, I recognize how critically important our Navy is to our national security - across the spectrum of competition and conflict. This is a troubling essay.
3. On a California tour, Pentagon chief scrutinizes a Navy in flux and a warship gutted by fire
Washington Post · by Dan Lemothe · September 21, 2020
I do dislike this false comparison: the US military must reorient itself from 20 years of COIN to high intensity warfare. If you do not think irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and political warfare will continue and will not be the dominant forms of competition and conflict during the future of Great Power Competition, you are not paying attention to policies, strategies, actions, and activities of the revisionist and rogue powers. Minimizing the effort against the fifth major threat (that of violent extremist organizations) does not mean that the other four adversaries are not conducting proxy warfare, economic warfare, political warfare, and irregular warfare. What do we think the Little Green Men are doing for the Russians? What about the Russian PMCs? What about China’s Three Warfares and Unrestricted Warfare? What is the IRCG doing in Syria and Lebanon and Yemen among other places? And North Korea is conducting subversion and it is own form of political warfare as a matter of routine and has been doing so for decades. Sorry to hijack this important article for my rant, but we have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time.
4. After a grueling deployment, the carrier Eisenhower gets set for a dubious ‘double pump’
Defense News · by David Larter · September 20, 2020
I do not think we as non-naval personnel can understand and appreciate the impact of this "double pump" and its impact on sailors and ships.
5. Our greatest national security threat is our national security establishment
CDR Salamander · September 21, 2020
This is CDR Salamander's critique of the Eisenhower "double pump," but with a broader focus as the title states.
6. Analysis: How Trump’s TikTok Deal Helps China
Defense One · by Patrick Tucker · September 21, 2020
7. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an advocate for military women, will be buried at Arlington
Stars & Stripes · by Steve Beynon · September 21, 2020
8. Esper and Milley appear to adopt different strategies to deal with Trump as election approaches
CNN · by Barbara Starr · September 21, 2020
Civil military relations in this administration will be studied for years to come.
9. Philippine Air Force receives first four of six Super Tucano aircraft
Janes · by Marhalim bin Abas · September 21, 2020
10. Secret CIA assessment: Putin ‘probably directing’ influence operation to denigrate Biden
Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · September 22, 2020
I do not think Russian really cares who wins. I think it is more interested in sowing devision and in undermining confidence in our democracy. The argument that Russia really wants Trump to win over Biden is a distraction and is part of what prevents us from mounting an effective defense. It is a brilliant strategy by the Russians when you think about it. The same with China and Iran. We are making ourselves a perfect target for interference in order to undermine the legitimacy of our political process.
11. Trump's former national security adviser warns of another 9/11-style attack in the future
Washington Examiner · by Mica Soellner · September 21, 2020
12. Vatican, China prepare to renew historic deal to US anger
Barron's · by Catherine Marciano · September 21, 2020
I guess Ambassador Gingrich was unable to prevent this.
13. The U.S. Army Should Plan To Send Four Divisions To Taiwan: Expert
Forbes · by David Axe · September 22, 2020
Note the photo. I wonder why they chose to use a photo of a US Special Forces detachment in 1972 in Taiwan.
Here is the Military Review essay this article is based on. No disrespect but I am trying the discern the author's expert credentials. I am having a hard time envisioning four division's worth of equipment afloat and getting it deployed to Taiwan before the PLA commences operations. Or are we going to fight over the single beach landing site to get four decisions ashore so we can repel a PLA invasion?
14. Droned out of action: the distortion of US counterterrorism in Somalia
Zignal Labs · by Bilva Chandra · September 21, 2020
This is very important analysis from Zignal labs.
15. DOD personnel proving productive, resilient during pandemic
US Department of Defense · by David Vergun · September 21, 2020
Not to beat a dead horse, but the military has to learn to fight through this pandemic and it should learn lessons that can apply to a biological attack.
16. In America's absence, China is taking Latin America by storm
National Interest · by John Turner · September 21, 2020
Nature (and China) abhors a vacuum.
17. Taiwan led the world in closing down for Covid-19, now it wants to do the same with opening back up
CNN · by Paula Hancocks · September 22, 2020
Both Taiwan and South Korea learned and applied lessons from the past. We should learn from them.
18. Commentary: Most Americans want more global engagement
Chicago Tribune · by Ivo Daalder & Dina Smeltz · September 21, 2020
Retrenchment is not the answer. Most Americans understand that. And engaging globally does not mean not putting US interests first. Our interests must always come first. But we cannot protect and advance US interests through retrenchment. We must be engaged in the world.
19. Latest tell-all, by former National Security Adviser McMaster, is not all about Trump
NPR · by Ron Elving · September 21, 2020
20. A scene breakdown of a Marine Corps ad created by an Oscar-winning duo
PetaPixel · by Doug Jackson · September 21, 2020
This is a brilliant ad by the Marine Corps.
21. Military-style Marshall Plan needed to combat climate change, says Prince Charles
Reuters · by Matthew Green · September 21, 2020
The Marshall Plan must be one of the most mis-applied analogies.
22. Edward Snowden agrees to give up more than $5 million from book and speeches
CNN · by Katelyn Polantz · September 21, 2020
Snowden is just weird (in addition to being a traitor). I cannot figure him out. I would like to know the 56 speeches he made and who paid him an average of $18,000 per speech. It is good work if you can get it, I suppose!
"The ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones that do."
- Anonymous
"Where men are the most sure and arrogant, they are commonly the most mistaken.”
-David Hume
"Too much has been said of the heroes of history - the strong men, the strenuous men, the troublesome men; too little of the amiable, the kindly, and the tolerant.”
-Stephen Leacock
9/22/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. U.S. says it will stop Iran-North Korea missile exchanges
2. Ditching Private Seo
3. Does South Korea have an OPCON problem?
4. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea for joining U.S.-led exercises
5. North Korean phone money: airtime transfers as a precursor to mobile payment system
6. U.S. and North Korea came much closer to war than previously thought, book claims
7. The triple whammy
8. Trump calls for IAEA efforts to fully denuclearize N. Korea
9. New virus cases smallest in over 1-month, virus fight at critical juncture ahead of Chuseok
10. Rival parties agree to pass 4th COVID-19 response extra budget through National Assembly
11. USFK to release asymptomatic COVID-19 patients after 20-day isolation
12. Korean War-era bomb exposed by typhoons kills four in North Korea
13. Suga belatedly replies to Moon's congratulations
14. DPRK nuclear activities still ‘cause for serious concern’, says UN atomic energy chief
15. World on alert: Kim Jong-un considers terrifying surprise on huge North Korea anniversary
16. Korea’s divided families: time and the vanishing hopes of the first generation
17. In U.N. speech, Moon says multilateral cooperation is key to overcoming coronavirus
18. Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech at an annual United Nations meeting
1. U.S. says it will stop Iran-North Korea missile exchanges
Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Shim Kyu-Seok · September 22, 2020
Mr. Abrams gets it.
2. Ditching Private Seo
Korea Times · by Choi Sung-jin · September 22, 2020
There is a lot to unpack in this short essay: the public controversy with the Moon administration's Justice Minister and the treatment of her son while he was doing his national service as a KATUS (Korean Augmentee to the US Army). But also, Korean history, concepts of equality, the "US style wealth gap," the Korean middle class and violation of "nationals sentiment laws." This is a fascinating essay.
3. Does South Korea have an OPCON problem?
National Interest · by Mark Episkopos · September 21, 2020
Sigh...Perhaps so, but not in the way the author describes. It is the same problem the author has - a lack of understanding of what OPCON transition is all about. There is so much wrong with this article. The ROK is not "getting back" OPCON from the US. After there is a ROK/US CFC change of command sometime in the near future, the command will still answer co-equally to both nations through the Military Committee. The 1994 return of "peacetime OPCON" was actually putting the ROK and US governments on equal footing. Since 1994 both countries have had to decide whether to provide forces to the ROK/US CFC. It is not automatic and both countries must make a deliberate decision to provide those forces to the warfighting command for deterrence and defense. This put the ROK and US on an equal footing. Now, at some time in 2022 or beyond (based on the conditions), the ROK/US CFC will be commanded by a ROK general officer and he will continue to answer to both countries through the Military Committee.
And for a historical perspective, although it is convenient to say that President Rhee provided the ROK military under the control of the UNC and MacArthur, the fact is he never gave up command of the ROK military as evidenced by his order to the ROK military to cross the 38th parallel after the Incheon landing in contravention to US orders to MacArthur. The same at Kwangu in 1980. The ROK government gave orders to its military. No nation ever gives up command of its military.
OPCON transition is not about disentangling the US from Korea. It is the natural evolution of the alliance as it matures. And given the unique security situation on the Korean peninsula (that, after war or a collapse of the resulting durable, acceptable political arrangement, can only be a United Republic of Korea) it is imperative that operations in North Korea be led by a Korean general officer.
4. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea for joining U.S.-led exercises
Yonhap News Agency · scaaet@yna.co.kr · September 22, 2020
Good. North Korea respects strength and is afraid of ROK/US and allied/coalition naval capabilities. It is afraid of the ROK Navy and the ROK/US combined naval force.
5. North Korean phone money: airtime transfers as a precursor to mobile payment system
United States Institute for Peace · Yonho Kim · September 2020
The 20-page report from the US Institute of Peace can be downloaded at the link. It is important for understanding cell phone usage and economic factors inside North Korea.
6. U.S. and North Korea came much closer to war than previously thought, book claims
Japan Times · by Jesse Johnson · September 21, 2020
I have to take exception to Van Jackson's comments here. Yes, Kim is smart. Was Kim being baited by the US into a tactical response? (bulls**t).
Here is why Kim is smart. We are not going to "tip" him into a pre-emptive attack. He is not going to conduct a pre-emptive strike into the strength of the ROK/US alliance. He will exploit weakness, but he will not mess around with a strong ROK/US alliance. I know this is counterintuitive to many of the pundits, but the stronger we are and the stronger we act, the less likely Kim is to conduct any kind of kinetic attack. As long as we demonstrate credible strategic reassurance and strategic resolve, we can deter Kim.
7. The triple whammy
Chosun Ilbo · by Victor Cha · September 22, 2020
Dr. Cha asks the key question…and offers a key conclusion.
8. Trump calls for IAEA efforts to fully denuclearize N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · by Byun Duk-kun · September 22, 2020
9. New virus cases smallest in over 1-month, virus fight at critical juncture ahead of Chuseok
Yonhap News Agency · by colin@yna.co.kr · September 22, 2020
This will be the big test for South Korea.
10. Rival parties agree to pass 4th COVID-19 response extra budget through National Assembly
Yonhap News Agency · by pbr@yna.co.kr · September 22, 2020
11. USFK to release asymptomatic COVID-19 patients after 20-day isolation
Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 22, 2020
12. Korean War-era bomb exposed by typhoons kills four in North Korea
Radio Free Asia · by Sewon Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · September 22, 2020
This is one reason why North Korea remains deathly afraid of US airpower. The effects of US airpower are incorporated into almost all propaganda against the US.
13. Suga belatedly replies to Moon's congratulations
Chosun Ilbo · by Lee Ha-won & Rok Suk-jo · September 22, 2020
A new Korea-Japan relationship is not off to a good start.
14. DPRK nuclear activities still ‘cause for serious concern’, says UN atomic energy chief
UN News · September 21, 2020
news.un.org · September 21, 2020
15. World on alert: Kim Jong-un considers terrifying surprise on huge North Korea anniversary
Express · by Ciaran McGrath · September 22, 2020
The UK Express has one of the best clickbait headline generators.
16. Korea’s divided families: time and the vanishing gopes of the first generation
38 North · by James A. Foley · September 21, 2020
One of the many terrible human rights abuses by the Kim family regime. There is no excuse not to allow these families to reunite. This is just another one of so many indications of the truly evil nature of the Kim family regime.
17. In U.N. speech, Moon says multilateral cooperation is key to overcoming coronavirus
Yonhap News Agency · by Lee Chi-dong · September 21, 2020
18. Full text of President Moon Jae-in's speech at an annual United Nations meeting
Yonhap News Agency · September 21, 2020
I was surprised there was no mention of a peace initiative and engagement with North Korea. But this seems to be an appropriate speech for multilateral UN issues, and he was speaking for MIKTA (an acronym we do not often hear (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey, and Australia).
"The ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones that do."
- Anonymous
"Where men are the most sure and arrogant, they are commonly the most mistaken.”
-David Hume
"Too much has been said of the heroes of history - the strong men, the strenuous men, the troublesome men; too little of the amiable, the kindly, and the tolerant.”
-Stephen Leacock
09/21/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. FinCEN Files: All you need to know about the documents leak
2. Explainer: Why is Taiwan-China tension rising and what are the risks?
3. H.R. McMaster on America's enemies and what he saw in the White House
4. Taiwan military says it has right to counter attack amid China threats
5. China air force video appears to show simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam
6. Cyber Competition and Nonstate Actors in a Data-Rich World
7. Japan's new prime minister Suga, Trump hold first talks by phone
8. U.N. General Assembly to Convene Remotely, With World Watching Trump, Rouhani
9. Analysis: A 'Tired' Taliban talking point | FDD's Long War Journal
10. Thornberry on overseas priorities, funding and advice to his successor
11. Teddy Roosevelt captain says he knowingly risked career with virus warning
12. FBI sounds alarm on rampant personal-data theft by China-backed hackers
13. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and an Alabama Air Force officer changed America for women in 1973
14. U.S. Below War Threshold Options Against China
15. How Can America Live With The Rise Of China?
16. Iran regime 'so hated, another revolt' may come after wrestler execution
17. Assange was offered presidential pardon to help 'resolve' Russia role in DNC hack, court told
18. What the Old Establishment Can Teach the New Tech Elite
19. What Trump Is Missing About American History
20. The Benefits of Brevity
21. This Green Beret had his leg shot off on a 'cursed' mission, but that didn't stop him from becoming an elite sniper
22. The Unbalanced Spear (SOF and broader civilian oversight critique)
1. FinCEN Files: All you need to know about the documents leak
BBC · September 20, 2020
Excerpts:
“The FinCEN files are more than 2,500 documents, most of which were files that banks sent to the US authorities between 2000 and 2017. They raise concerns about what their clients might be doing.
These documents are some of the international banking system's most closely guarded secrets.
Banks use them to report suspicious behaviour but they are not proof of wrongdoing or crime.
They were leaked to Buzzfeed News and shared with a group that brings together investigative journalists from around the world, which distributed them to 108 news organisations in 88 countries, including the BBC's Panorama programme.”
2. Explainer: Why is Taiwan-China tension rising and what are the risks?
Reuters · by Ben Blanchard · September 21, 2020
3. H.R. McMaster on America's enemies and what he saw in the White House
I recommend you spend the 13 minutes it takes to watch this segment. Or you can read the transcript below. There is a lot to parse, consider, and discuss. I am very much looking forward to reading this book this week.
4. Taiwan military says it has right to counter attack amid China threats
Reuters · by Yimou Lee · September 21, 2020
The right of self defense cannot be denied. But can Taiwan defend itself? Probably not without allied help.
5. China air force video appears to show simulated attack on U.S. base on Guam
Reuters · by Yew Lun Tian · September 21, 2020
China's three warfares: psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media warfare.
6. Cyber Competition and Nonstate Actors in a Data-Rich World
warontherocks.com · by Nina Kollars · September 21, 2020
Author's key point: Cyberspace is not owned, operated, or ruled by states
Conclusion:
Privileging states is an exercise in both analysis and tool creation. Political science, in particular International Relations theories (big I, big R), tend to privilege the state as its primary unit not only because they are frequently the primary agents of interaction but also because there is applicable policy value in thinking about how states can conduct themselves among one another. Yet cyberspace, no matter how many times we scream “whole of government,” is not owned, operated, or ruled by states. States are not sovereign on the internet, at least when it comes to intelligence competitions. Privileging states in thinking about cyber is folly. It distracts us from resolving hard policy issues by reducing social media’s dysfunctional influence to Russian meddling or major systemic vulnerabilities in data management to Chinese intellectual property theft. It leads to incomplete and hypermilitarized policy solutions that are costly, potentially escalatory, and fundamentally unhelpful to pressing back against the swollen gnat swarm of data-driven devices. Our windshields are peppered with the evidence. Now, somebody turn on the wipers, and let’s get to work.
7. Japan's new prime minister Suga, Trump hold first talks by phone
Reuters · by Chris Gallagher and Kiyoshi Takenaka · September 20, 2020
A read out from the Japanese side.
8. U.N. General Assembly to Convene Remotely, With World Watching Trump, Rouhani
WSJ · by Michael R. Gordon, Laurence Norman and Courtney McBride
9. Analysis: A 'Tired' Taliban talking point | FDD's Long War Journal
longwarjournal.org · by Bill Roggio · September 20, 2020
Quite a critique: "Trump is not alone in repeating the fable that the Taliban is tired. As history has shown, the only tired thing is the narrative, as the Taliban has shown itself to be resilient in the face of long odds, and has shrugged off the multitude of assessments that it is exhausted."
10. Thornberry on overseas priorities, funding and advice to his successor
Defense News · by Joe Gould · September 17, 2020
Chairman Thornberry will be missed.
11. Teddy Roosevelt captain says he knowingly risked career with virus warning
navytimes.com · by The Associated Press · September 20, 2020
Again, I think this will be studied in leadership classes in PME institutions for some years to come.
12. FBI sounds alarm on rampant personal-data theft by China-backed hackers
washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz
He who controls the data.... wins?
Be the firstest with the mostest?
13. Ruth Bader Ginsburg and an Alabama Air Force officer changed America for women in 1973
Alabama.com · by Anna Claire Vollers | avollers@al.com · September 20, 2020
It is hard to imagine we could have been this discriminatory. I know I am applying current norms to 47 years ago but who could have made an argument that this officer was not entitled to equal housing allowance and medical benefits because she was a woman and her husband was a student and not the "breadwinner."
14. U.S. Below War Threshold Options Against China
divergentoptions.org · by James P. Micciche · September 21, 2020
15. How Can America Live With The Rise Of China?
The National Interest · by Bonnie Kristian · September 20, 2020
Better questions and better assumptions.
Here is an interesting conclusion: "But the prudence and commitment to productive negotiation and de-escalation Tsai encouraged would behoove us as well. The Chinese military is not yet a peer competitor, yet it is the second-strongest national force in the world. Needless provocation is more dangerous by the day. We have a big stick—but so does Beijing. We must learn to walk softly."
16. Iran regime 'so hated, another revolt' may come after wrestler execution
Jerusalem Post· by Benjamin Weinthal · September 20, 2020
What a terribly tragic situation in another truly evil regime.
17. Assange was offered presidential pardon to help 'resolve' Russia role in DNC hack, court told
More fodder.
18. What the Old Establishment Can Teach the New Tech Elite
WSJ · by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
Spoiler alert. One word: Service.
A powerful conclusion: "Unless the ethic of public service is once again reignited, the American world order will ossify, just as other empires did before it. That is the message today’s Eloi should take from English churchyards."
19. What Trump Is Missing About American History
Politico· by Leslie M. Harris and Karin Wulf · September 19, 2020
I am troubled by the proposal for a federal government mandate for patriotic education.
These two professors provide some important analysis and insights and one of the best essays I have read on this subject.
20. The Benefits of Brevity
groundedcuriosity.com · by Emma Watson · September 19, 2020
I will be brief: Worth a read!
21. This Green Beret had his leg shot off on a 'cursed' mission, but that didn't stop him from becoming an elite sniper
Business Insider · by Ryan Pickrell
22. The Unbalanced Spear (SOF and broader civilian oversight critique)
lawfareblog.com · by Shannon Culbertson and Alice Hunt Friend · September 20, 2020
SOF role demoted? I have a different read of the NSS and the NDS than these two authors. SOF plays an important role in Great Power Competitions.
The authors take me to task for my recent proposal. But there are kudos for Mike Vickers. The problem is he cannot be cloned. (as far as I know).
The authors use SOF to lament the larger problem with civilian oversight of the military in general.
But I agree with part of this assessment: "But structural changes to civilian oversight of special operations will not solve the problem. The issue is not one of quantity but of quality, and not of structure but of stature. Special operations isn’t adrift because of bureaucracy. It is adrift because civilian leadership at the Pentagon has less political influence—inside the Pentagon, with the White House and with Congress—than the military organizations it is intended to oversee." I do think structural changes are needed.
Conclusion: The hobbling of civilian oversight of special operations forces is likely a pronounced example of weakened civilian oversight of the military in general. There is much in recent history and the organizational culture of the special operations community that has accelerated this trend and made it visible to observers. But if the Pentagon cannot be relevant to special operations forces, then the problems with civilian power over military strategy will not end with SOCOM.
-----------------
"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
- Confucius
"Power is like being a lady... if you have to tell people you are, you aren't."
- Margaret Thatcher
"Let us remember: One book, one pen, one child, and one teacher can change the world."
- Malala Yousafzai
09/21/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Secret documents show North Korea laundering money through U.S. banks
2. USFK chief: 'Difficult to transfer OPCON to S. Korea next year'
3. Iran, N. Korea resumes long-range missile cooperation: report
4. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea over nuclear deterrence discussion with U.S.
5. IHO's expected new numerical system likely to help resolve East Sea naming dispute
6. N.K. paper urges efforts to maximize rice production despite typhoon damage
7. Kim Son Il appointed as deputy director of Reconnaissance General Bureau
8. North Korean smuggler shot dead while crossing border
9. N. Korea to curb illegal slaughtering, ownership of working cows
10. A Donald Trump Second Term: A Dangerous Time for U.S.-North Korea Relations?
11. North Korea takes its propaganda to YouTube
12. ROTC general tapped as Army chief of staff for 1st time (South Korea)
13. NK silent as Moon speaks of peace deal
14. Inter-Korean reconciliation should not mean turning a blind eye to rights violations
1. Secret documents show North Korea laundering money through U.S. banks
NBC News · by Dan De Luce
The subtitle says it all. This should be a surprise to no one.
2. USFK chief: 'Difficult to transfer OPCON to S. Korea next year'
donga.com· September 21, 2020
I am sure this will cause quite a stir in South Korea within the Moon administration. But the General is reminding everyone that a conditions based transition is critical to the security of the ROK. If the Moon administration remains focused on a time based transition, it will put the security of the ROK at risk.
This should be a wakeup call for the Moon administration who should be putting all effort into ensuring the conditions are met. Of course, there is one condition it has little control over and that is a reduction in the security threat (this explains why the Administration wants to tout the success of the Comprehensive Military Agreement, but the fact is the north Korean threat has increased since the agreement 2 years ago)
And in fact, the Moon administration is not taking over wartime operational control from the US. The ROK/US Combined Forces Command will be led by ROK general officer when the transition occurs and the ROK/US CFC will continue to answer to both countries equally through the Military Committee as it does now.
3. Iran, N. Korea resumes long-range missile cooperation: report
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · September 21, 2020
Resumes?
This is no surprise to anyone who has read Dr. Bruce Bechtol's books, specifically, North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability,
4. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea over nuclear deterrence discussion with U.S.
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 21, 2020
Be afraid. Be very afraid. The north is getting the message on nuclear deterrence. This is a good thing.
5. IHO's expected new numerical system likely to help resolve East Sea naming dispute
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · September 21, 2020
Another source of friction in Japanese relations and for Korea's place in the world. I am skeptical that this will be considered a resolution of this dispute but I hope it does.
6. N.K. paper urges efforts to maximize rice production despite typhoon damage
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · September 21, 2020
I am not sure that the damage to the rice fields can be overcome. They certainly cannot plant and harvest any new rice this late in the season. I fear the Korean people are going to suffer horrendously because of Kim Jong-un's policy decisions that have only made the effects of the natural disasters worse.
7. Kim Son Il appointed as deputy director of Reconnaissance General Bureau
dailynk.com by Jeong Tae Joo · September 21, 2020
Kim Jong-un cleaning house? But this is what it is all about: strengthening party control over all aspects of north Korea. Quote: "According to the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Kim's appointment is aimed at strengthening the Workers' Party's chain of command over the RGB. His report suggests that North Korea wants to continue setting up cyberwarfare-related "bases" in China and other countries while ensuring that the agency's efforts to expand its cyberwarfare capabilities come under the "direct guidance" of the party."
8. North Korean smuggler shot dead while crossing border
dailynk.com· by Ha Yoon Ah · September 21, 2020
We have read the orders. Now we see implementation (or execution so to speak).. The regime has put up so it does not have to shut up.
9. N. Korea to curb illegal slaughtering, ownership of working cows
dailynk.com· by Ha Yoon Ah · September 21, 2020
Desperation on the part of the people and on the part of the party to maintain control.
10. A Donald Trump Second Term: A Dangerous Time for U.S.-North Korea Relations?
The National Interest · by Spencer D. Bakich · September 20, 2020
An ominous conclusion. I hate to depend on Kim for security and stability. Quote: "War was "much closer than anyone would know," Trump admitted. Yet, little has changed in the ensuing three years to alleviate concerns about Trump's approach to crisis bargaining. Regional stability depends, then, on whether Kim is satisfied with what he has, an admittedly slender reed on which to rest one's hopes."
11. North Korea takes its propaganda to YouTube
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith
And relatively large numbers of people are watching.
12. ROTC general tapped as Army chief of staff for 1st time (South Korea)
The Korea Times · September 21, 2020
Yes, historic.
13. NK silent as Moon speaks of peace deal
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · September 20, 2020
Perhaps it has no interest in peace on the South's terms. We should never forget the regime's objective is to dominate the Korean peninsula under its domination to ensure regime survival. But we can expect to exploit Moon's peace vision to support its long con and its political warfare with Juche characteristics.
14. Inter-Korean reconciliation should not mean turning a blind eye to rights violations
straitstimes.com · September 21, 2020
Human rights is a national security issue.
----------
"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
- Confucius
"Power is like being a lady... if you have to tell people you are, you aren't."
- Margaret Thatcher
"Let us remember: One book, one pen, one child, and one teacher can change the world."
- Malala Yousafzai