News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions
2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?
3. South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans
4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal
5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects
6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year
7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations
8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'
9. Moon needs help!
10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history
11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia
12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas
13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal
14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector
15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance
16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy
17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden
18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-Ju
1. Company pleads guilty to money laundering violation as part of scheme to circumvent North Korean sanctions
US Department of Justice · by US DOJ · August 31, 2020
Good. Justice is on a roll. We need to keep this up. We cannot allow the North Koreans or anyone to subvert the financial system.
2. Joe Biden would strengthen the U.S.-South Korea alliance, but is that best for America?
National Interest · by Jennifer Lind · August 31, 2020
Some good analysis in this essay however, I have to raise a big red flag about the statement below and the argument for forgoing support to the ROK. First, the comparison of NATO and the Cold War to the Korean peninsula today is not useful. Do we really think that, if we were not part of NATO and committed to the defense of Europe, we would have avoided a nuclear war with the USSR by sitting home while it attacked Europe? The same thing today with North Korea. Even if we packed up our marbles and went home, do we think that we would still not be vulnerable to a North Korean attack? Would leaving the peninsula include US forces leaving Japan as well? This argument is idiotic and dangerous.
It is in this statement that I think the professors are really wrong. I think they would benefit from talking to South Korean officials.
The American people may thus decide that the partnership with Seoul is so valuable that it justifies accepting real risks of nuclear war. But the current in-between position - that Seoul is not with the United States in its critical regional mission vis-à-vis China, but that it expects the United States to risk its survival on South Korea’s behalf - would be (and should be) a tough sell to the American people.
First, this mischaracterizes the nature of the alliance. We are not in Korea just to defend South Korea. We are there for our own interests in the region, the number one reason being to deter war. Arguments such as this one will lead to war; whether we have troops on the peninsula and we contribute to the defense of the ROK or not, the US will suffer strategic effects. We also should consider how abandoning our ally (and not for good strategic reasons) will impact our other allied strategies.
Furthermore, South Korea's South strategy is designed to be complementary to the US Free and Open INDOPACIFIC strategy. But we also need to respect the position South Korea is in, geographically as well its economic position vis a vis China. There is no doubt the ROK is committed to the alliance – despite what some professors, politicos, and pundits might think. But, it must walk a geostrategic tightrope and we must not treat South Korea as a puppet that simply does US bidding – which is, in effect, what these professors are arguing. It saddens and frustrates me to read such arguments.
3. South Korea appoints new military chiefs amid OPCON plans
UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · August 31, 2020
Ahem. I think we agreed to OPCON transition as far back as 2003 when Rumsfeld first informed President-elect Roh's emissaries when they visited DC after the election. The concept has evolved since then, and I think 2015 is when we finally agreed to the current plan.
The policy has been discussed jointly with the United States since 2015, when the two countries agreed to a preliminary plan on the transfer.
4. Key points in S. Korea's 2021 budget proposal
Yonhap News Agency · by YNA · September 1, 2020
5. Unification ministry requests 3.1 pct increase in 2021 budget for inter-Korean projects
Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020
I wonder what will happen to these funds as North Korea is unlikely to accept these proposed "projects." It seems like this money could be better spent on domestic issues such as COVID recovery.
6. S. Korea seeks to increase defense budget 5.5 pct next year
Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020
What is always interesting to consider is that it is liberal administrations who spend more on defense than conservative administrations.
7. S. Korea should lead post-Abe S. Korea-Japan relations
Dong-A Ilbo · by klimt@donga.com · September 1, 2020
A few of my thoughts on the way ahead for Korea-Japan relations.
The only way for things to change is if there is a direct, personal commitment by each leader to work together to prioritize mutual national security first over the historical issues. One President or Prime Minister cannot change things. It has to be both of them exercising decisive leadership to do what is best for their countries and not what is politically expedient for their personal politics or their political base.
After ensuring GSOMIA remains in place and mutual coordination on national security issues, I hope they can resolve the economic and trade issues while managing the historical issues. I do not think the latter can ever be fully resolved, but through decisive leadership they can be managed.
They should meet as soon as possible, perhaps at a mutually acceptable location (Guam? Hawaii? if I were advising our President, I would host a meeting for them both so I could facilitate. But I am afraid that, with the election, this will not be possible). But the key is that both leaders need to meet and make a private agreement that they are going to manage the situation and prioritize their national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues.
Time is short and they are unlikely to have any kind of significant breakthrough before the end of both of their terms (unless there is a snap election in Japan, the new Prime Minister will complete Abe's remaining term), though they could clean up the trade and economic issues and stabilize the GSMOIA issue. However, they can lay the groundwork for their successors. They can set an example on leadership and how to deal with each other with mutual respect.
8. Kang reaffirms Seoul's commitment to peninsula peace, calls NK denuclearization 'integral'
Korea Herald · by Yonhap · August 31, 2020
I hate to say it, but there will be no conclusive peace and no complete denuclearization as long as the Kim family regime exists. The ROK, with the support of the US, needs to have a long-term strategy to resolve the "Korea question." Within that strategy, you can work to negotiate denuclearization and there can be North-South engagement, but it must be in the context of the long-term objective of solving the Korea question.
9. Moon needs help!
Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Michael Green · September 1, 2020
Some good advice from Mike Green. President Moon should learn from his mentor.
10. Classical geopolitics for the 21st century: geopolitics, geography and strategic history
Real Clear Defense · by Francis P. Sempa · August 31, 2020
11. Pentagon official calls for distributing 'heavily concentrated' U.S. troop presence from Northeast Asia
Yonhap News Agency · by Oh Seok-min · September 1, 2020
So, where else will we station troops? But "strategic flexibility" with troops on the Korean peninsula is an important way ahead. It is unlikely we are going to be able to station troops in significant numbers (sufficient to serve US interests) in other locations throughout Asia.
12. Top N.K. officials, including nuclear missile development chief, visits typhoon-hit areas
Yonhap News Agency · by Koh Byung-joon · September 1, 2020
Top officials have multiple responsibilities. Ri Pyong-chol is vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers Party. I do not think his only responsibility is overseeing the regime's nuclear program. The headline makes it seem (at least to me) that one of the actual senior scientists of leaders of the nuclear missile program was sent from his research facility to the typhoon hit areas. Ri is a party official who visited the area and, yes, he is also a party official with responsibility for oversight of the nuclear missile programs. But the headline would not have been as attention grabbing as "Party Official Visits Typhoon Hit Area."
13. Donations to UN relief fund for North falling well short of goal
Korea Joong Ang Daily · by Shim Kyu-Seok & Jeong Yong-Soo · September 1, 2020
There has long been donor fatigue with North Korea. This fact is especially true because the regime does not allow the necessary transparency to ensure aid is delivered to those actually in need. In addition, it is probably hard to raise funds for a pandemic when the North says there are no cases in the country.
14. South Korea charges intelligence officers with raping North Korean defector
Reuters · by Josh Smith, Hyonhee Shin, & Simon Cameron-Moore · September 1, 2020
This is just sickening. These escapees need to be protected even from those who should be protecting them. If found guilty, these two should be sent to a gulag in the North for life (yes, that is sarcasm, but there is no punishment strong enough in the South to undo this damage to the victim as well as to the trust of the entire escapee population - and future escapees).
15. America should double down, and not retreat, from its South Korean alliance
National Interest · by Welton Chang · August 31, 2020
Rather than double down I think we need to evolve and mature the alliance (but I think we mean the same thing). The alliance is in the US’s interest. And because it is based on shrewd interests, shared values, and shared strategy, we should sustain it and improve it. It requires sustained "tending" and not taking it for granted or neglecting it.
16. Joe Biden plans to freshen up Barack Obama's North Korea policy
National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · August 31, 2020
I think he will need to do more than freshen up old policy. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, we need to move our policy and strategy forward, making it broader and more aggressive and focusing on solving the Korea question.
17. Robert Gallucci: thinking through a new North Korea strategy for Joe Biden
National Interest · by Robert L. Gallucci · August 27, 2020
18. Does Kim Jong Un have a wife? What to know about Ri Sol-ju
New York Post · by Tamar Lapin · August 31, 2020
"History is the witness that testifies to the passing of time; it illuminates reality, vitalizes memory, provides guidance in daily life and brings us tidings of antiquity."
- Cicero
"History, although sometimes made up of the few acts of the great, is more often shaped by the many acts of the small."
- Mark Yost
"Most of us spend too much time on the last 24 hours, and too little on the last 6,000 years."
- Will Durant