Access SOF News HERE.

Special Operations News Update – Monday, May 10, 2021

May 10, 2021 SOF News Update 0

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. Topics include Navy SEAL training, jetpacks for SOF, the talkative Eddie Gallagher, SOF small arms, ASD SO/LIC and civilian oversight of SOF, 4th Canadian Ranger Group, smokejumpers and the CIA, ANASF, books, podcasts, videos, and more.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Restoring Taiwan’s Appropriate Place at the World Health Assembly - United States Department of State

2. Opinion | The U.S. Still Has Leverage In Afghanistan. Here’s How to Keep It

3. Biden’s foreign policy of ‘competitive coexistence’

4. Xi versus Biden: how China is beating the US

5. Will deterrence work, when our foes wage war disguised as peace? by Sean McFate

6. [OPINION] Fighting the virus of lies

7. Beijing’s Woke Propaganda War in America

8. US Navy Says Seizes Huge Weapons Cache In Arabian Sea

9. Ransomware attack leads to shutdown of major U.S. pipeline system

10. New U.S. Indo-Pacific chief to visit Japan in second half of May

11. Washington is playing a losing game with China by Chas Freeman

12. Genuine multilateralism, int'l cooperation championed worldwide

13. The US Needs to Impose Costs on China for Its Economic Warfare

14. Deterrent against China: Palau invites U.S. military to build on remote islands

15. 'Conspiracy is hard': Inside the Trump administration's secret plan to kill Qassem Soleimani

16. Leaked documents reveal China’s sinister virus plan

17. 4 Years After an Execution, a Different Man’s DNA Is Found on the Murder Weapon

18. US State Department: We Will Not Normalize Ties With Assad

19. Afghan Pullout Leaves U.S. Looking for Other Places to Station Its Troops

20. Major China Bill Puts Military in a Crunch

 

1. Restoring Taiwan’s Appropriate Place at the World Health Assembly - United States Department of State

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

Looks like we are going to do something with the WHA (and thus the WHO.)

We should remember the history of the WHO. China was a founding member of the WHO. But we know the People's Republic of China did not come into existence until 1948.

When diplomats met to form the United Nations in 1945, one of the things they discussed was setting up a global health organization.

WHO’s Constitution came into force on 7 April 1948 – a date we now celebrate every year as World Health Day.

 

2. Opinion | The U.S. Still Has Leverage In Afghanistan. Here’s How to Keep It

Politico · by Anne Pforzheimer · May 8, 2021

Conclusion: "Pulling out troops without conditions or remaining “at war” indefinitely are not the only two options; they never were. In our 2009 cable, we pointed out that anti-corruption and long-term development efforts were better investments than more troops. Rather than compound our past errors, the United States must now commit to the goal of stability by preserving our remaining leverage—and using it well."

 

3.Biden’s foreign policy of ‘competitive coexistence’

ekathimerini.com · by Ian Bremmer · May 8, 2021

Ian Bremmer wins the prize for new foreign policy doctrine name: "competitive coexistence."

 

4. Xi versus Biden: how China is beating the US

SCMP · by Suzanne Ho

Excerpts: “A strong leader who has both a deep understanding of strategy and a desire to meet the needs of the people comes only once in many generations. Meritocracy allowed Xi to climb up the over the course of decades, by honing his capability and generating support.

Despite the Western media image of Xi, he is one leader who has a clear-eyed view of the path forward for China and the support of his people in securing the future.

On the other hand, America’s political duopoly, at least in the last decade, has resulted in greater polarisation, with its citizens paying the price.

 

5. Will deterrence work, when our foes wage war disguised as peace?

The Hill · by Sean McFate · May 8, 2021

Politics is war by other means.

Mao: Politics is war without bloodshed and war is politics with bloodshed.

But Sean has coined a brilliant new phrase: "War is becoming a strategic scam." Perhaps this will take a rightful place next to Ike"s: "Military Industrial Complex."

Excerpts: “These “non-war” wars do not bend to the strategic logic of Clausewitz or Thomas Schelling, who prized brute force as the ultimate form of diplomacy (read: “deterrence and war”). Our national security establishment is steeped in these two thinkers. Yet warfare has changed, becoming more Sun Tzu, who valued deception above firepower. You win modern wars not through blitzkrieg, but by manufacturing the fog of war and exploiting it for victory, as our adversaries do. This is strategic deception. Trying to deter it is like trying to win at three-card monte.

War is becoming a strategic scam, and not a contest of brute strength alone. David beats Goliath through trickery, something the U.S. suffered in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Yet we have not learned. Deterrence is the reasoning of Goliath, but we are surrounded by Davids. To beat them, we must improve our strategic IQ and think beyond a big “shooting war” that may never occur. Rather, we should ask what is “war” today? It’s not our great-grandfather’s war. If war is getting sneakier, we must get sneaky with it. We must learn to scam the scammers — after all, Americans are clever people.

 

6. [OPINION] Fighting the virus of lies

rappler.com

From a great person, Maria Ressa, whom I am proud to know for the past 2 decades. Wise words.

Excerpts: “The virus of lies is highly contagious. They infect real people, who become impervious to facts. It changes the way they look at the world. They become angrier, more isolated. They distrust everything.

In this environment, the dictator wins, crumbling our democracies from within.

...

So here’s the thing: our problems can’t be solved from the Philippines alone. Again, something I’ve said repeatedly: what’s local is global; and what’s global is local.

...

Inevitably, there is this one moment when power and money chooses – status quo or change: in the Philippines in 1986, it was an elite family’s banner at a protest rally that helped open the floodgates that ousted a dictator. In Indonesia in 1998, months of student protests led nowhere until the business community and the military stepped in, ending nearly 32 years of Suharto.

Those with power and money must choose.

Ask yourselves these questions: Who are you? What do you stand for? What kind of world do you want in the next decade?

 

7. Beijing’s Woke Propaganda War in America

hoover.org · by Miles Maochun Yu

Excerpts: “On July 13, 1990, the Vice-Consul of Culture, Propaganda, and Exchange in the PRC’s San Francisco Consulate General, who defected to the U.S. in the aftermath of the Tiananmen Massacre, told a Berkeley, California audience about how easy it was for the CCP propagandists like himself to capture American intellectual and social elites to function as the CCP’s proxies in the U.S.:

“The tactic Chinese propagandists use is not really very complicated. It is simple. It is always to work on your ego, on your business interests, on your curiosity, and especially with the Chinese students (in the U.S.), on your patriotism.”

The former CCP propagandist further tellingly disclosed that:

“In the early 1970s when Nixon visited China, his visit was followed by a swarm of China experts from Hong Kong and the West. Surprisingly, these people were the easiest targets of all because they were self-important. They thought they knew everything about China.”

Indeed, since Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, the American elite’s ego, business interests, and curiosity about Chinese culture have supplied fertile ground and ample opportunities for the CCP to create a permanent class of the CCP propaganda proxies in the United States.

But elite capture goes further. Former senior government officials, including cabinet-level figures, routinely defend the CCP’s murderous acts, including the Tiananmen Massacre and other egregious human rights violations. Some of these former officials have even become registered agents for the Beijing regime and its CCP-controlled business interests in the U.S. Many of our leading universities and their talented professors often are coopted by the CCP to voice Beijing’s views in the U.S., masqueraded as research and objective surveys.

 

8. US Navy Says Seizes Huge Weapons Cache In Arabian Sea

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

I wonder who is responsible for these weapons? Inquiring minds want to know.

Excerpt: “The statement did not indicate where the vessel may have come from, but said the US Navy's regular patrols in the region "disrupt the transport of illicit cargo that often funds terrorism and unlawful activity".

 

9. Ransomware attack leads to shutdown of major U.S. pipeline system

Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima, Yeganeh Torbati, and Will Englund

I wonder if these Eastern European criminals have read "Unrestricted Warfare?"

 

10. New U.S. Indo-Pacific chief to visit Japan in second half of May

japantimes.co.jp · May 9, 2021

Excerpts: “China could invade Taiwan "in the next six years," Davidson told the Senate Committee on Armed Services.

Aquilino told senators at a confirmation hearing in the same month, "My opinion is this problem is much closer to us than most think," but he declined to weigh in on Davidson's assessment of the six-year timeframe.

The Japanese government is studying possible responses by the SDF in the event of a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan within the strict confines of its national security laws and the war-renouncing Constitution.

 

11. Washington is playing a losing game with China by Chas Freeman

eastasiaforum.org · by Chas Freeman · May 9, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States should work with China to ease the inevitable transition from dollar hegemony to a multilateral monetary order in ways that preserve American influence; leverage not boycott China’s Belt and Road Initiative to benefit from its opportunities and connectivities; promote cross-Strait negotiations and mutual accommodation rather than China–Taiwan confrontation; and expand consular relations, restore exchanges, and promote Chinese studies to enhance understanding of China.

Doubling down on military competition gives China a reason to up the ante and call the bluff, leading to a mutually impoverishing arms race.

Stoking China’s neighbours’ dependency on the United States rather than helping countries be more self-reliant implicates them in US conflicts of interest with China without addressing their own. They need US diplomatic support more than military backing to work out a stable modus vivendi with China.

US China policy should be part of a new, broader Asia strategy — not the determinant of relations with other Asian nations or the driver of policies in the region. To hold its own with China, the United States must renew its competitive capacity and build a demonstrably better governed, better educated, more egalitarian, more open, more innovative, healthier, and freer society.

 

12. Genuine multilateralism, int'l cooperation championed worldwide

xinhuanet.com

From a Chinese propaganda outlet.

I am always curious about the country with the 2d largest economy in the world can still described and categorized as a developing country.

Excerpts: “As the largest developing country in the world, China has increased its contributions to achieving the highest reduction in CO2 emissions in the world and will achieve carbon neutrality from carbon peaking in the shortest time in the world's history, said Ayadi.

China has already pledged to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, which is a much shorter time span than those proposed by many developed countries.

"This demonstrates China's commitment to making more contributions to tackling global climate change and building up its image as a responsible major country," she said.

 

13. The US Needs to Impose Costs on China for Its Economic Warfare

defenseone.com · by Jared Thompson and Anne Fixler

Yes. 

The US Needs to Impose Costs on China for Its Economic Warfare

 

14. Deterrent against China: Palau invites U.S. military to build on remote islands

washingtontimes.com 

Excerpts: “China is disadvantaged by America’s 70-year head start in the Pacific since the end of World War II and by Palau’s staunch support for the U.S., Taiwan and democratic Western allies,” a Bangkok-based geopolitical analyst with experience in the Pacific region said in an interview. “On the other hand, the U.S. spent the last two decades forfeiting much of the ‘First Island Chain’ to China.”

That “first chain” in the Pacific includes Taiwan, Okinawa, the Philippines and other islands closest to China on the front line of the struggle for influence in the highly trafficked and highly contested South China and East China Seas, where Beijing and Washington compete to dominate with their strategy and policies.

Palau is in the “Second Island Chain,” closer to Hawaii and the U.S. mainland. It links southern Japan, Guam and islands farther south across the Western Pacific Ocean. Although Palau’s primary interest is its economic survival, analysts say, the stakes are far greater and far 

 

15.  'Conspiracy is hard': Inside the Trump administration's secret plan to kill Qassem Soleimani

news.yahoo.com · by Jack Murphy and Zach Dorfman · May 8, 2021

I continue to be amazed by the amount of information that is allowed to see the light of day (or ink on pages). But I guess I should not be so naive to think that we could keep some secrets.

 

16. Leaked documents reveal China’s sinister virus plan

news.com.au · by Ria Matthews · May 8, 2021

Of course every biological research laboratory has and probably continues to have such discussions, mostly probably to talk about defense against the threats. But the question is do these discussions and "thinking" actually lead to weapons development. I am in no way excusing or defending Chinese actions or trying to establish a moral relativity relationship. But discussions are one thing, operationalization is another. I tend to be very suspicious of CHina and its capabilities and intentions but we need to continue to investigate.

“I think this is significant because it clearly shows that Chinese scientists were thinking about military application for different strains of the coronavirus and thinking about how it could be deployed,” said Mr Jennings.

 

17. 4 Years After an Execution, a Different Man’s DNA Is Found on the Murder Weapon

The New York Times · by Heather Murphy · May 7, 2021

This is one of the many reasons why I am opposed to the death penalty.  Despite modern science and technology we still make mistakes.

 

18. US State Department: We Will Not Normalize Ties With Assad

english.aawsat.com · by Washington- Muath al-Amri

 

19. Afghan Pullout Leaves U.S. Looking for Other Places to Station Its Troops

WSJ · by Vivian Salama and Gordon Lubold

It seems a little late. You would think we should have this sorted out and have put agreements in place before we withdraw our troops.

 

20. Major China Bill Puts Military in a Crunch

freebeacon.com · by Jack Beyrer · May 8, 2021

Excerpts: “China has increased its military forces in recent months. Beijing commissioned three advanced warships in April, with several more under construction. On Wednesday, multiple reports indicated China is planning to build an airstrip in Kiribati, one of the closest island chains to Hawaii, as well as several other U.S. and allied military installations.

The bill also signals a potential emphasis for the administration: restraining nuclear weapons. Calling for an arms control discussion with China, the bill states the United States and China are not in an arms race even as Beijing stocks up on advanced weaponry. Rep. Don Bacon (R., Neb.) praised much of the bill but said the United States cannot afford to cut defense, especially in the nuclear realm.

"As long as China remains a threat to the U.S. and our allies, we cannot afford to make any cuts to defense, especially to our nuclear triad," Bacon said. "Within our overarching strategic deterrence framework, both extended nuclear and conventional deterrence must be brought to bear if we are to present a credible challenge to the PRC’s hegemonic ambitions."

The bill, which has been praised by the White House, will likely receive a vote from the Senate in May.

------------

 

"Certain things catch your eye, but pursue only those that capture the heart." 

- Ancient Indian Proverb

 

"Virtue always lasts longer than other qualities, and it always starts from the beginning."

- Immanuel Kant

 

"Let us therefore set out whole-heatedly, leaving aside our many distractions and exert ourselves in the single purpose, before we realize too late the swift and unstoppable flight of time and we are left behind. As each day arises, welcome it as the very best day of  all, and make it your own possession. We must seize what fees."

- Seneca

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. He Balloon-Dropped 500,000 Anti-Kim Flyers on North Korea—Then Cops Knocked on His Door

2. Southern county got a U.S. missile shield -- and little else

3. How North Korean APT Kimsuky Is Evolving Its Tactics

4. South Korean opposition politician meets with U.S. North Korea rights activist

5. Virus fight, North Korea policy to challenge Moon's final year in office

6. South Korea is betting it can stay out of the US and China's intensifying rivalry

7. Israel, South Korea to sign free trade agreement

8. Resolving US-North Korea tension requires a formal end to Korean War

9. Reports: Kim Jong-Un executes a conductor in front of orchestra

10. What I have learned about suffering after escaping North Korea

11. New N. Korea policy does not affect U.S. defense posture in S. Korea: Pentagon

12. Is North Korea’s ‘Monster Missile’ Designed to Release Multiple Nukes?

 

1. He Balloon-Dropped 500,000 Anti-Kim Flyers on North Korea—Then Cops Knocked on His Door

The Daily Beast · by Donald Kirk · May 8, 2021

Will this be an issue at the Moon-Biden summit?

Biden and his team have not commented on whether the topic of the anti-leaflet law will come up at the summit, but Park hoped Biden would ask about the legality of the legislation that he said represses free speech as guaranteed in the South’s constitution.

“I want President Biden to ask all those questions,” he said. “Why does Moon violate the Korean constitution, freedom of speech, freedom of information. That’s what President Biden should confront President Moon with.”

Park spoke out in terms that clearly identify with Korean right-wing forces, gathering strength while Moon’s own popularity sinks in response to corruption scandals and economic issues.

“Moon is working for Kim Jong Un,” he said, echoing widespread comments by Moon’s conservative critics.

 

2. Southern county got a U.S. missile shield -- and little else

koreanjoongangdaily · by Kim Jung-Seok and Sarah Kim

Now this is really rich. Why do they think they should get these projects as the professional agitators continue to radicalize the local citizens to protest and interrupt logistical support operations for the THAAD battery?

Perhaps the government should tell the local population that there can be no contributions until the THAAD battery can function without hindrance from local protests.

 

3. How North Korean APT Kimsuky Is Evolving Its Tactics

darkreading.com · by Kelly Sheridan

CloudDragon and KimDragon.

 

4. South Korean opposition politician meets with U.S. North Korea rights activist

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · May 7, 2021

I wonder if the anti-leaflet law will be an election issue. But I hope not because it needs to be rescinded long before the 2022 president elections.

Excerpts: “The former prime minister also said Scholte inquired about President Moon Jae-in, a former human rights lawyer.

Scholte reportedly said Moon should cultivate the "right awareness" about the plight of North Koreans living under oppression, according to Hwang.

Last year, Scholte delivered a letter to the South Korean Embassy in Washington, addressed to Moon, after Seoul warned it could revoke operation permits for North Korean activists in the South engaged in leafleting.

Scholte said defectors were being harassed and investigated without sufficient cause.

Hwang's visit comes ahead of a presidential election in the South next year and after his colleagues in the conservative People Power Party won mayoral elections in landslide victories.

Hwang, who has not confirmed a presidential run, left Korea Wednesday for the United States, Korea Economic Daily reported.

 

5. Virus fight, North Korea policy to challenge Moon's final year in office

The Korea Times · May 9, 2021

As he tries to cement his legacy. I am afraid his legacy will not be the one he desires.

I am not sure if the Biden policy review is in synch with the South Korean government (maybe it is with the professionals in the South Korean government but it is not in synch with the politicos in the Moon administration.)

Excerpts: “Some of the expected topics for the speech and the following question and answer session include achieving herd immunity against COVID-19 by November as the government promised; boosting the virus-hit economy through its Korea New Deal project for job creation; stabilizing the real estate market through an administration-led boost in the housing supply; and how to capitalize on the upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit slated for May 21 to restart the President's Korean Peninsula peace process.

...

As to Moon's peace process, experts said there is little room for South Korean diplomacy, as the policies of North Korea and the United States will matter more.

Hong Min, a senior researcher at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification, said it does appear that the policy review on the North by President Joe Biden's administration is in sync with the South Korean government. He noted that Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong said Seoul welcomed Washington's review, in a meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, May 3, during the G7 Foreign and Development Ministers Meeting in London.

 

But Hong said what is more important than the South Korean government's position is how the North responds to the review. He said prospects for North Korea-U.S. talks look dim as both Pyongyang and Washington have said they would respond in accordance with each other's moves, with neither making any preemptive concessions.

"Looking at a few words from Washington on its North Korea policy, there are no terms, words, or content that Pyongyang would be satisfied with. Washington has only said that it would take gradual and diplomatic steps, which is far from what Pyongyang has requested, namely the withdrawal of what it claims to be hostile policies against the reclusive regime," Hong said.

"Pyongyang has already revealed its principle of strong-against-strong and benevolence-for-benevolence. When both Pyongyang and Washington keep the position that they will wait for each other's preemptive concession, then there is the possibility for tensions to keep increasing with both opting for stronger words and actions against each other."

Hong said the government's task would be mediating between the U.S. and North Korea, while leading the U.S. to take preemptive reconciliation measures.

 

6. South Korea is betting it can stay out of the US and China's intensifying rivalry

Business Insider  · by Karl Friedhoff

Ah... a shrimp among whales (and a slightly different version used below).

But I disagree with the first line of the excerpt here but this is an interesting discussion of South Korean naval capabilities and ambitions.

Ultimately, there may not be a pressing need for South Korea to closely align with either great power, as it is not standing idly by in terms of its own defense. Under the supposedly dovish Moon administration, the country saw its two biggest year-on-year defense spending increases in its history, with an 8.2% increase in 2019 and 7.4% in 2020.

Its arms race with North Korea may attract the most attention, but it is also pursuing a blue-water navy — and that has little to do with North Korea. It has floated the idea of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. And it is ready to develop a light aircraft carrier that could eventually carry up to 20 F-35B fighter jets.

Roh Moo-hyun, the last progressive president before Moon Jae-in, presided over construction of a deep-water naval port on Jeju island, South Korea's southernmost point. The advance of the South Korean navy is in part a natural outgrowth of South Korea's growing security interests around the world. But Seoul also has one eye on China and its territorial ambitions.

South Korea is in an unenviable position, and it will face growing scrutiny as it seeks to balance its economic and security interests. But the growth of its own national power has opened up previously closed spaces as it seeks to swim — not idly float — among the whales. Its ability to strike that balance will depend on not getting its tail caught.

 

7. Israel, South Korea to sign free trade agreement

Jerusalem Post

Two of our most important allies.

 

8. Resolving US-North Korea tension requires a formal end to Korean War

The Hill · by Colleen Moore · May 8, 2021

Kim Jong-un will only agree to an end of war declaration if it leads to the end of the alliance and withdrawal of US troops so that it can execute its critical line of effort in its long term strategy to dominate the peninsula - his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

He really does not care about ending the war unless he can exploit it for his political warfare strategy. 

The author is from Women Across DMZ which has proved to be a strong mouthpiece for north Korean regime issues and for placing all blame on the US rather than acknowledging the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

I fear the influence of this organization on some members of congress. Such influence and co-opting of some very progressive members of congress risks breaking the bipartisan support for Korea issues that has long existed. 

 

9. Reports: Kim Jong-Un executes a conductor in front of orchestra

slippedisc.com · by John Borstlap · May 9, 2021

This is based on a report from north Korea escapee and YouTube millionaire Yeonmi Park. It does link to a Donga Ilbo report in Korean. While I would not be surprised if KJU  did this, it could also be a rumor followed by circular reporting.

 

10. What I have learned about suffering after escaping North Korea

The Korea Times · by Eom Yeong-nam · May 9, 2021

And most all us take our freedom for granted.

Excerpts: “What freedom means to me is suffering, but freedom also presents the opportunity to overcome suffering.

People can try to reduce the education gap between North and South Korea by learning English or studying in graduate school. It is still possible to achieve when there is freedom.

That suffering happened to me because I'm from North Korea.

However, I have overcome those challenges and I am enjoying freedom because I have a special strength that I gained when I was in North Korea.

 

11. New N. Korea policy does not affect U.S. defense posture in S. Korea: Pentagon

kdva.vet · by Byun Duk-kun · May 4, 2021

I missed this report last week. Some of my Korean friends worry about the Pentagon's force posture review and about US troop withdrawals from other areas (e.g., Afghanistan) and how it might affect force posture in Korea. But to my Korean friends I would not worry about the review or other withdrawals from other countries. What could drive changes to US force posture in Korea could be the logistic support for THAAD and the ability for US forces to conduct training, particularly live fire training, to maintain qualifications and certifications. if US forces do not have sufficient access to adequate training areas to remain qualified then those forces could be subject to withdrawal. As Confucius said, "To lead an untrained people to war is to throw them away."

 

12. Is North Korea’s ‘Monster Missile’ Designed to Release Multiple Nukes?

The National Interest · by Sebastien Roblin · May 8, 2021

I think the simplest answer is the regime wants to develop this capability to enhance both deterrence and its blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.

However, there may be another reason for showing us this capability. The Hwasong 15 may be sufficient or deterrence. But showing us a possible new missile system increases the level of threat and tension. But what if this is only a mockup of a capability to generate fear on our part and make us negotiate to halt or roll back what we perceive as the regime's most advanced capabilities? What if the north simply wants to use this for negotiation and is actually setting the conditions to negotiate away this this capability in return for substantive concessions from the US. The regime neds of giving up a capability it does not really posses. The regime has long been masterful at getting something for nothing. All warfare is based on deception. 

 

--------------

 

"Certain things catch your eye, but pursue only those that capture the heart." 

- Ancient Indian Proverb

 

"Virtue always lasts longer than other qualities, and it always starts from the beginning."

- Immanuel Kant

 

"Let us therefore set out whole-heatedly, leaving aside our many distractions and exert ourselves in the single purpose, before we realize too late the swift and unstoppable flight of time and we are left behind. As each day arises, welcome it as the very best day of all, and make it your own possession. We must seize what fees."

- Seneca

An interview with General (Retired) Robert Neller, the 37th Commandant of the Marine Corps and the deputy commanding general I Marine Expeditionary Force (Forward) in Anbar Province in 2005–2007, and Dr. Carter Malkasian, former advisor to US military leadership in Iraq, State Department political officer in Afghanistan, and senior advisor to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph Dunford

https://mwi.usma.edu/the-harsh-lessons-of-anbar-insurgency-the-awakening-and-the-rise-of-isis/

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. DOD Directive 5111.10 Assistant Secretary Of Defense For Special Operations And Low-Intensity Conflict Charter

2. Time for Cognitive Warfare Against China?

3. Strategic Predictability: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific

4. FDD | How China Responded to President Biden’s Address to Congress

5. Don’t Let China Hijack the UN Security Council

6. Russian Spy Team Left Traces That Bolstered C.I.A.’s Bounty Judgment

7. Why a Filipino Official Just Flipped Out at Chinese Aggression

8. Top general: US considering training Afghan forces in other countries

9. DoD Investigating Former Army Officer Who Used Arlington Cemetery Footage in Campaign Ad

10. Diving Off the Platform-Centric Mind-set

11. Have the DoD’s special hiring practices hurt more than helped?

12. FDD | Time for Biden to Oppose Gulf Monarchies’ Outreach to Assad

13. Shadow Warriors Pursuing Next-Gen Surveillance Tech

14. Pentagon Struggles to Wean Afghan Military Off American Air Support

15. China’s State-Backed Messengers See Opportunity in India’s Coronavirus Woes

16. How China turned a prize-winning iPhone hack against the Uyghurs

17. The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?

18. Were those Navy SEALs spotted just off Capistrano Beach near Dana Point Harbor?

19. Nation challenges west's human rights claims on Xinjiang

20. Can Biden imbue foreign policy realism with moral values?

 

1. DOD Directive 5111.10 Assistant Secretary Of Defense For Special Operations And Low-Intensity Conflict Charter

The 28 page document can be downloaded at this link.

A lot to parse here. My sense is ASD SO/LIC has a lot of responsibilities that go well beyond the SOF ADCON chain of command responsibilities and civilian oversight of SOF. A question is whether the ASD SO/LIC is sufficiently resource with personnel to execute all these responsibilities.

I am heartened to see this responsibility under the IW section:

 

(b) Lead DoD efforts to establish and sustain processes and authorities to assess and

analyze the viability of unconventional warfare as a strategic policy option, and incorporate

relevant concepts into strategic planning documents.

 

​On the other hand direct action stands alone:

 

f. Direct Action.

Coordinates with the USD(P) to oversee planning and resourcing of capabilities for SO

forces to conduct direct action, and monitors SO actions during planning and execution.

 

​The entire Irregular Warfare section is worth highlighting (but I am at a loss to understand why Direct Action stands alone as an apparent co-equal to IW. I am happy to read the references to FID and UW as strategic policy options. This is the verbiage in my syllabus for my course on UW and SOF for Policy makers and Strategists: "We need Strategists and Policy M​akers who have a deep (or at least sufficient) understanding of and value the strategic options offered by ​UW and Counter-UW​."​

 

h. IW.

(1) In their role as a PSA to the Secretary of Defense, assists the USD(P) to:

 

(a) Develop and oversee policies for IW as it pertains to DoD IW-related activities

either independently or in support of other U.S. Government departments and agencies, foreign

security partners, or other select organizations, in accordance with DoDD 3000.07.

 

(b) Lead DoD efforts to establish and sustain processes and authorities to assess and

analyze the viability of unconventional warfare as a strategic policy option, and incorporate

relevant concepts into strategic planning documents.

 

(c) Develop policy in coordination with other U.S. Government departments and

agencies, and provide advice to senior DoD officials regarding the use of U.S. Government

resources in stabilization, in accordance with DoDD 3000.05.

 

(d) Develop policy and provide advice and guidance to senior DoD officials

regarding the use of U.S. Government resources to conduct foreign internal defense as a strategic

policy option, and incorporate relevant concepts into strategic planning documents to defend

against and impose costs on malign internal security threats.

 

(e) Develop, coordinate, and oversee implementation of counterterrorism policy

consistent with national strategies and DoD policy and objectives.

 

(2) In their role as a PSA to the Secretary of Defense, assists the USD(P) and, in

coordination with the USD(I&S):

 

(a) Develops policy and provides advice to senior DoD officials regarding the use of

U.S. Government resources in counterinsurgency.

 

(b) Develops policy in coordination with other U.S. Government departments and

agencies, and provides advice to senior DoD officials regarding the use of U.S. Government

resources in counterterrorism consistent with national strategies, DoD policy, and objectives.

 

(3) In coordination with the CJCS, the Secretaries of the Military Departments, the OSD

PSAs (as applicable), and the CCDRs, determines the optimal organizational structure and

decision processes for the DoD to ensure the uninterrupted oversight, management, direction,

and accountability over the development and maintenance of required forces and capabilities to

conduct or support IW missions.

 

The other important aspect of this paragraph is the recognition that IW (and FID, UW, Stabilization, CT, and COIN are inherently interagency and require resources well beyond DOD.. My question is in what documents among other government agencies does it state that such agencies have a responsibility for contributing to IW strategy and execution. I wish the drafters had included this description of the "concept of irregular warfare operations'' (from the 2018 NDAA): '' Irregular warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”​ Inclusion of this would have furthered the understanding of the whole of government nature of IW. But unless this is recognized and prioritized by other agencies of the US government this concept will be stuck in ASD SO/LIC.​

I have highlighted just a few points. As I said there is a lot to parse (e.g., note the guidance and authorities for legislative affairs)

 

2. Time for Cognitive Warfare Against China?

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · May 6, 2021

Or PSYOP.

Have the USS Mustin's actions created desired effects in China? If so, then let's do more.

Excerpts: “Or as the Bard might put it, the American crew showed slight regard for China’s navy.

Apparently, Washington didn’t get the memo that cognitive warfare is something China does. Beijing makes a practice of using naval and military implements to overawe outmatched neighbors such as the Philippines and Vietnam. It wages what Chinese officialdom calls “three warfares” against opponents on a 24/7/365 basis, executing legal, media, and yes, psychological operations to shape opinion in the Chinese Communist Party’s favor. The narrative: China is big, bad, and unbeatable.

A ship on a routine errand accompanied by a simple photograph helps give the lie to China’s narrative—and deface the image of itself Beijing has so artfully painted in recent years. Trolling is an underappreciated part of great-power strategic competition at sea. The U.S. Navy needs to do it more. Seize the initiative.

Well played.

 

3. Strategic Predictability: Landpower in the Indo-Pacific

warontherocks.com · by Lt. Gen. Charles Flynn · May 6, 2021

Perhaps this forms the foundation of the new USARPAC Commander's strategic guidance to the force.

Conclusion: “As the president has noted, the United States will “take on directly the challenges posed [to] our prosperity, security, and democratic values by our most serious competitor, China.” The Department of Defense needs to marshal all elements of American military power — air, cyber, land, sea, and space — in response. Given the stakes involved and Beijing’s continued ability to translate economic growth into military might, the United States cannot afford to discount landpower in its regional strategy.

The United States could just buy more technological platforms and say that this is our competitive advantage. But, if America did that, a quick look at military history would prove it wrong. From Great Britain in the American Revolution to France in World War II to America’s own experience in Vietnam, what a country fights with is nowhere near as important as how it fights. The United States can and should develop new platforms with better technology and enhanced intelligence capabilities, but it should also be clear-eyed about where and how it intends to employ those platforms to create enduring effects. U.S. air-, cyber-, sea-, and spacepower are essential to securing American interests in the Indo-Pacific, but we are unaware of any historical example where a war ended at sea or in the air — or in space or cyberspace space for that matter. Does the United States compete in those domains? Absolutely. However, war is won, and peace is preserved, on land. Army landpower needs to be in position to help decide the outcome.

 

4. FDD | How China Responded to President Biden’s Address to Congress

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · May 6, 2021

Excerpts: “The omission of any reference to Taiwan is even more noteworthy when one considers what President Biden said he told Xi. “I told him what I’ve said to many world leaders: that America will not back away from our commitments—our commitment to human rights and fundamental freedoms and to our alliances,” Biden claimed. The president continued:

And I pointed out to him: No responsible American president could remain silent when basic human rights are being so blatantly violated. An American president has to represent the essence of what our country stands for. America is an idea—the most unique idea in history: We are created, all of us, equal. It’s who we are, and we cannot walk away from that principle and, in fact, say we’re dealing with the American idea.

That idea is being challenged at home by actors across the political spectrum. And the CCP is all too happy to challenge it abroad.

 

5. Don’t Let China Hijack the UN Security Council

The National Interest · by Morgan Lorraine Vina · May 7, 2021

My assessment of China: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

Excerpts: “The Biden administration should not take lightly China’s use of the Security Council as a propaganda platform. As China takes the gavel, the United States should denounce any attempt by Beijing to use the body as a platform to manipulate the agenda to shield dictators and undermine democracy. The United States should also look to its other P-5 members, specifically the United Kingdom and France, as well as like-minded, elected Council members, such as Norway and Estonia, to call out China’s grandstanding.

The security council is a soft target for Beijing. As a deliberative body, it can be easily hijacked by its members and used as a political platform. The United States and other P-5 members should protect the integrity of the council and expose China’s deceptions.

 

6. Russian Spy Team Left Traces That Bolstered C.I.A.’s Bounty Judgment

The New York Times · by Michael Schwirtz · May 7, 2021

Excerpts: “Michael J. Morell, a former acting director of the C.I.A., said another factor had fostered confusion. When analysts assess something with low confidence, he said, that does not mean they think the conclusion is wrong. Rather, they are expressing greater concerns about the sourcing limitations, while still judging that the assessment is the best explanation of the available facts.

“A judgment at any confidence level is a judgment that the analysts believe to be true,” he said. “Even when you have a judgment that is low confidence, the analysts believe that judgment is correct. So in this case, the analysts believe that the Russians were offering bounties.”

 

7. Why a Filipino Official Just Flipped Out at Chinese Aggression

The National Interest · by Tory Rich · May 7, 2021

It was a helluva tweet. But it turns out his error was in usurping Duterte's prerogative for the use of profanity.

 

8. Top general: US considering training Afghan forces in other countries

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · May 6, 2021

Excerpts: “The Afghan Air Force is also heavily reliant on U.S. contractors for maintenance. All U.S. contractors also are slated to leave the country in conjunction with the troop withdrawal, but Milley said talks are ongoing about whether any can be transferred to the control of the Afghan military to stay.

“That's one of the key questions and I will tell you that the final crossing of Ts and dotting the Is of that plan is not yet settled,” Milley said. “But maintaining logistic support to the Afghan Air Force is a key task that we have to sort out doing it over the horizon, but also in country. It could be done by contractors.

"A lot of that's going to be dependent on the security conditions on the ground," he continued. "But the intent is to keep the Afghan Air Force in the air and to provide them with continued maintenance support.”

 

9. DoD Investigating Former Army Officer Who Used Arlington Cemetery Footage in Campaign Ad

military.com · by Steve Beynon · May 6, 2021

What is it with these former officers and military personnel? Do they not recall the briefings they received?

But this NCO undermines the legitimacy of the former officer and gives his opponent a simple message to discredit him:

Another NCO who served with Earls said he is confused why the ad leans so heavily on his military service, or why it is relevant to his district, given he has never deployed overseas and got out of the service relatively quickly. Evidence is mixed on any advantages former service members might have in election.

 

10. Diving Off the Platform-Centric Mind-set

usni.org · May 1, 2021

Algorithmic warfare. Did Al Gore invent that too? (My apologies, my daughter will counsel me for an attempted "dad joke.")

Conclusion: Carl von Clausewitz characterized war as a Zweikampf, or two-sided duel, between hostile, sentient wills facing off amid disorder, uncertainty, and nonlinearity.28 The most recent 30-year shipbuilding plan maps vessel procurement out to 2051, but by that point, varying forms of machine-based sentience will drive the blinding pace of combat, and the force with the most hardened, resilient, cooperative, and adaptable algorithms will possess the decisive advantage. The total number and types of ships in the Navy’s fleet will matter much less than whether those ships can rapidly update their software and supporting data. It is time for the Navy to look up from counting ships and instead focus on driving down the days, hours, and even minutes required to send its latest software to sailors at the tactical edge.

 

11. Have the DoD’s special hiring practices hurt more than helped?

federaltimes.com · by Jessie Bur · May 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Sometimes this results in each military department creating separate developmental paths and certification requirements for similar sets of skills, a practice that creates significant barriers for promotion for internal candidates or lateral entry for external candidates. Moreover, management practices and culture more often than not erect barriers to hiring more than the lack of authorities. A prime example is the department’s reported failure by the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence to recognize experience as a substitute for educational credentials when determining appropriate compensation for persons with cyber skills.”

This isn’t the first time that “flexibility” has been labeled the enemy of improved hiring, with HR professionals from several agencies testifying in a 2019 hearing that the myriad special authorities with different titles for certain job types have made the job of hiring managers that much more cumbersome. And that burden gets translated into longer hiring times.

AFGE called on the DoD to cut back on hiring caps, siloing of positions, extended probationary periods and unnecessary degree requirements, while expanding on existing incentive programs like the three-year Cyber Scholarship program to attract and keep talent.

 

12. FDD | Time for Biden to Oppose Gulf Monarchies’ Outreach to Assad

fdd.org · by David Adesnik · May 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Furthermore, there will be a need for constant vigilance. David Schenker, the State Department’s top official for Middle Eastern affairs under President Donald Trump, has urged the new administration to fill the open position of special envoy for Syria with an individual of sufficient stature to maintain and deepen the allied front against Assad.

Finally, if Riyadh wants to repair the extensive damage that human rights violations have done to its reputation on the Hill, it should not embrace the bloodiest regime in the region.

 

13. Shadow Warriors Pursuing Next-Gen Surveillance Tech

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Jon Harper · May 7, 2021

Excerpts: “Desired program “deliverables” include: image matching at long range (100 to 1,000 meters); matching at severe pitch views (20 to 50 degrees); atmospheric turbulence mitigation; multi-image templates from video; body and face localization in moving video; cross-view whole body matching both indoors and outdoors; robustness against incomplete or occluded views; and multi-modal fusion, according to Ericson’s slides.

Solutions must be agnostic to sensor platforms and optics; adapt to edge processing and real-time streaming; accurate across diverse demographics and body shapes; invariant to pose, illumination, expression and clothing changes; and adapt or transfer solutions to be used in different platform-specific environments.

“The [technology] evaluation is going to be conducted on the aggregated evaluation sets that have images of subjects across a wide range of sensors and platforms,” Ericson said. “That’s how we’re going to fundamentally evaluate the statistical performance of these algorithms.

And so they need to be agnostic or at least robust to the kinds of sensor platforms and optics” that will be used during testing.

The four-year program is expected to kick off in the third or fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021. IARPA hopes to transfer the technology to other government agencies after the project is completed. Its customers include the CIA and other intelligence agencies, the U.S. military and the Department of Homeland Security.

Historically, about 70 percent of IARPA’s completed research successfully transitions to government partners, according to the agency.

 

14. Pentagon Struggles to Wean Afghan Military Off American Air Support

The New York Times · by Eric Schmitt · May 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Rules of engagement of American air power are extremely restrictive, according to a U.S. official, meaning that in some cases approval to strike could take longer than some jets can stay airborne. Many targets need to be preplanned and watched for hours, if not days, by drones and other surveillance aircraft, meaning immediate support for Afghan forces under siege is increasingly difficult.

U.S. officials have noted the gains made by the Afghan air force in recent years. Their fleet of small helicopters and armed propeller planes — that look more at home in a World War II movie — have become increasingly capable, though civilian casualties caused by their attacks have spiked.

But with about 17,000 military contractors also leaving with U.S. and NATO troops, the Afghan government is panicking on how to continue to maintain their aircraft. Almost the entire air force, minus some aging Soviet-era helicopters, is nearly completely dependent on contractor support for maintenance. The contractors even control the supply of fuel, one Afghan pilot said, because it has been siphoned and sold off by Afghan troops in the past.

Addressing the contractor issue, General Milley said that much would be determined by the security conditions on the ground. “The intent,” he said, “is to provide them with continued support.”

 

15. China’s State-Backed Messengers See Opportunity in India’s Coronavirus Woes

securingdemocracy.gmfus.org · by Bryce Barros · May 4, 2021

Excerpts: “When Chinese and Indian soldiers clashed at the border between both countries in June 2020, Chinese diplomats and state-backed media reacted belligerently. The Indian government has since moved to severely curtail the operation of Chinese tech giants in India and has deepened its engagement with other democracies. As India fights to get its most recent coronavirus outbreak in check, Chinese government officials and state-backed media have deployed a more conciliatory tone. However, the expressions of friendship relayed by Chinese government officials and state-backed media barely conceal Beijing’s ambition to pull India away from a group of countries that threatens to effectively challenge the Chinese Communist Party’s hegemonic ambition in Asia.

But, as Dr. Garima Mohan, a fellow in GMF’s Asia program, told us, the propaganda push has not shifted the geopolitical soil. Though China’s offers of assistance and conciliatory tone were welcomed in India, she noted that “media outlets in India started reporting about China blocking flights and shipments to India.” In addition, “the perception in the strategic community that China used the COVID crisis last year to escalate military tensions on the border with India will cloud all offers of help from China.” China’s offers of assistance and messaging have not changed the structural tensions in Sino-Indian relations. These tensions were exacerbated by the “breadth and scope” of U.S. assistance and “messages of solidarity across the Biden administration,” which, Mohan said ultimately checked China’s narrative.

As India deepens its relationships and partnerships with regional and extra-regional democratic countries like Japan, Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, China will continue to search for narratives and messages that weaken those bonds and ties. The coronavirus pandemic continues to provide instances where China can use carrots like assistance with case numbers to sticks like saber-rattling on the Sino-Indian border. In turn, this provides ample opportunities for Chinese government officials and state-backed media to opportunistically try their messaging on the world’s largest democracy: India.

 

16. How China turned a prize-winning iPhone hack against the Uyghurs

Technology Review · by Patrick Howell O'Neill

Excerpts: “Tianfu’s links to Uyghur surveillance and genocide show that getting early access to bugs can be a powerful weapon. In fact, the “reckless” hacking spree that Chinese groups launched against Microsoft Exchange in early 2021 bears some striking similarities.

In that case, a Taiwanese researcher uncovered the security flaws and passed them to Microsoft, which then privately shared them with security partners. But before a fix could be released, Chinese hacking groups started exploiting the flaw all around the world. Microsoft, which was forced to rush out a fix two weeks earlier than planned, is investigating the potential that the bug was leaked.

These bugs are incredibly valuable, not just in financial terms, but in their capacity to create an open window for espionage and oppression.

Google researcher Ian Beer said as much in the original report detailing the exploit chain. “I shan’t get into a discussion of whether these exploits cost $1 million, $2 million, or $20 million,” he wrote. “I will instead suggest that all of those price tags seem low for the capability to target and monitor the private activities of entire populations in real time.”

 

17. The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan?

thebulletin.org · by Matt Field · May 5, 2021

Well beyond my level of knowledge on this but I did learn something. A long read.

Excerpts: “In what follows I will sort through the available scientific facts, which hold many clues as to what happened, and provide readers with the evidence to make their own judgments. I will then try to assess the complex issue of blame, which starts with, but extends far beyond, the government of China.

By the end of this article, you may have learned a lot about the molecular biology of viruses. I will try to keep this process as painless as possible. But the science cannot be avoided because for now, and probably for a long time hence, it offers the only sure thread through the maze.

​...

The virologists’ omertà is one reason. Science reporters, unlike political reporters, have little innate skepticism of their sources’ motives; most see their role largely as purveying the wisdom of scientists to the unwashed masses. So when their sources won’t help, these journalists are at a loss.

Another reason, perhaps, is the migration of much of the media toward the left of the political spectrum. Because President Trump said the virus had escaped from a Wuhan lab, editors gave the idea little credence. They joined the virologists in regarding lab escape as a dismissible conspiracy theory. During the Trump administration, they had no trouble in rejecting the position of the intelligence services that lab escape could not be ruled out. But when Avril Haines, President Biden’s director of national intelligence, said the same thing, she too was largely ignored. This is not to argue that editors should have endorsed the lab escape scenario, merely that they should have explored the possibility fully and fairly.

People round the world who have been pretty much confined to their homes for the last year might like a better answer than their media are giving them. Perhaps one will emerge in time. After all, the more months pass without the natural emergence theory gaining a shred of supporting evidence, the less plausible it may seem. Perhaps the international community of virologists will come to be seen as a false and self-interested guide. The common sense perception that a pandemic breaking out in Wuhan might have something to do with a Wuhan lab cooking up novel viruses of maximal danger in unsafe conditions could eventually displace the ideological insistence that whatever Trump said can’t be true.​

 

18. Were those Navy SEALs spotted just off Capistrano Beach near Dana Point Harbor?

Stars and Stripes · by Erika I. Ritchie · May 6, 2021

 

19. Nation challenges west's human rights claims on Xinjiang

chinadaily.com.cn · by 张洁

Push back from a propaganda mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party.

Interesting excerpt: “In 2019, a letter hailing China's "remarkable achievements in the field of human rights" and calling for work to be carried out "in an objective and impartial manner" based on "true and genuinely credible information" was signed by ambassadors from 37 countries to the UN in Geneva.

The envoys came from Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar as well as Russia, Pakistan, Egypt, Cuba, Algeria, Tajikistan and the Philippines.

The letter was sent to the president of the UN Human Rights Council and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

In the letter, the ambassadors said they "appreciate China's commitment to openness and transparency". They added,"China has undertaken a series of counterterrorism and deradicalization measures in Xinjiang, including setting up vocational education and training centers."

 

20. Can Biden imbue foreign policy realism with moral values?

The Christian Science Monitor · by The Christian Science Monitor · May 6, 2021

It takes good statecraft to protect both interests and values.

 

----------------

 

"First tell yourself what kind of person you want to be, then do what you have to do. For in nearly every pursuit we see this to be the case. Those in athletic pursuit first choose the sport they want and then do the work."

-Epictetus

 

“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.” 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

“Dare to know! Have the courage to use your own intelligence.” 

- Immanuel Kant

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea unlikely to carry out provocations ahead of S. Korea-U.S. summit: minister

2. FM Chung says it's 'desirable' for U.S. to appoint special representative for N. Korea

3. N.K. tightens antivirus efforts in border area within range of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

4. PM nominee calls anti-N.K. leafleting threat to public safety

5. N. Korea briefly placed under state of alert following kidnapping of security agency official's son

6. G7 ministers endorse Biden’s North Korea policy

7. S. Korea raids activist's office over anti-North leaflets

8. FDD | Taliban takes control of two districts in Afghan north

9. Just another Korea-US summit

10. Biden Must Push President Moon to Get Real on ROK-China Relations

11. North Korea’s Kim Regime: A Contemporary Apartheid

12. Defector denounces raid for dispatching balloons to North

13. Opinions clashing in South Korea on how to handle 'pro-North' publications

14. It is time for Washington to show its leadership

 

1. N. Korea unlikely to carry out provocations ahead of S. Korea-U.S. summit: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 7, 2021

Wishful thinking or accurate assessment?

I worry these kinds of estimates make people complacent and frankly I do not hold the Ministry of Unification in high regard in offering "intelligence estimates" though the Minister does caveat his assessment saying we cannot rule out all possibilities and he is really parroting the assessments of "many experts." But we should ask if the ROK military is on alert? Where are the Aegis equipped ROK ships? The last few missile tests conducted by north Korean found those whips in port and unable to surveil those tests.

Again, to beat a dead horse, I am reminded of Sun Tzu: "Do not assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

 

2. FM Chung says it's 'desirable' for U.S. to appoint special representative for N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 7, 2021

I am hearing rumors (and Josh Rogin wrote this early this week) that the administration may not appoint a special representative. I think that would be a mistake.

I think as part of a strategic messaging campaign for the new policy the administration should announce its senior Korea team for implementation of the policy: A new special representative. a special envoy for north Korean human rights, a new US ambassador to South Korea, and the new commander for US forces in Korea (the nomination of General LaCamera was submitted to the Senate on April 27 but so far no confirmation hearing has been scheduled (or at least made public). 

In speaking with some Korea experts there is a belief there may only be a short window for diplomacy and the US needs to be ready to seize any opportunity. We need to have our senior Korea team in place and prepared to exploit any opportunities.

 

3. N.K. tightens antivirus efforts in border area within range of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 7, 2021

Another indicator that the regime views information as an existential threat to the survival of the regime. And it is interesting to note how the regime is exploiting the threat of COVID to be able to institute draconian population and resources control measures to try to prevent the military and the local population from access to information in the frontline areas.

 

4. PM nominee calls anti-N.K. leafleting threat to public safety

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · May 7, 2021

This is really the height of hypocrisy. How many citizens in the South have been harmed by a north Korean response to information and influence activities? How many incidents have occurred not related to information activities which resulted in casualties among Korean civilians? And rather than restrict the human rights of those in the South (to include escapees who are Korean citizens) why doesn't the government improve defenses to protect Korean citizens? Those who consent to government usually demand security while protecting their rights and individual liberties. It is up to the government to balance security and protection of individual liberties but the ROKG is taking what appears to be the easy way out and just restricting the rights in a misguided and futile effort to improve security. And that is the irony of the ROK actions. The north will not cease its provocations and the potential for civilian casualties will always remain.

 

5. N. Korea briefly placed under state of alert following kidnapping of security agency official's son

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 7, 2021

A feud? Revenge? Criminal activity? Desperation for money? indicator of resistance? An interesting combination of apparent reasons.  

 

6. G7 ministers endorse Biden’s North Korea policy

donga.com · May 7, 2021

CVIA? Did someone receive an award for a new acronym? Seriously, note the statement about compliance with all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions. This is apparently a key element in the new Biden administration Korea policy. Also, countering the north's sanctions evasion tactics requires an aggressive international effort.

The statement adopted the expression‎ CVIA (complete, verifiable, irreversible abandonment) in regard with North Korea’s nuclear program. Previously, they used CVID for “Denuclearization” or “Dismantlement”, providing room for speculation that the ministers shunned from the expression‎ of “CVID” as the North detests it. The G7 ministers also voiced the need for keeping sanctions against Pyongyang in unison. “It is critical that sanctions which target the DPRK's unlawful weapons development remain in place while its programs exist," they said, stressing the need to fully implement the UN Security Council resolutions on the communist regime. They further vowed to counter the North’s “sanctions-evasion tactics, particularly its illicit maritime activities including ship-to-ship transfers.”

 

7. S. Korea raids activist's office over anti-North leaflets

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim · May 6, 2021

Again, the ROKG needs to rescind the law and cease these actions that violate the human rights of Korean citizens.

 

8. FDD | Taliban takes control of two districts in Afghan north

fdd.org · by Bill Roggio · May 6, 2021

Excerpt: “While many press outfits are describing the spike in Taliban attacks as an offensive, the reality is that the group’s current operations are a continuation of its violence against the Afghan government and people. A Taliban offensive will likely look much different, and include thousands of fighters massing to seize provincial capitals, perhaps several at once. The Taliban previous took control of Kunduz City (twice, Farah City, and Ghazni City) and held them for short periods of time even while U.S. forces were in country and supporting the Afghan military.

 

9. Just another Korea-US summit

The Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · May 6, 2021

Donald Kirk possesses one of the most important characteristics of a professional journalist: He is the consummate skeptic! And he is the pithiest writer I know.

Excerpts: “You can't blame Moon for imagining it might still be possible to bring Kim to his senses and persuade him he's got far more to gain by forgetting about nukes and opening his country up to capitalism as China did under Deng Xiaoping. Moon's popularity ratings have dropped so low, he needs Biden to smooth the way to rapprochement by easing up on U.S. demands for denuclearization.

Ho hum. We've been there before. None of this is going to work. Rhetoric will intensify. And China will come to the North's rescue, shipping oil and food and other vital products to North Korea despite sanctions and COVID-19.

You have to wonder, though, how long can this standoff last before one leader or another says "I'm not going to take it anymore," loses patience and fires the first shots.

Fear not, that won't happen any time soon. The North is too weak, too emaciated by COVID, hunger and a lack of medicine, to fight anyone, but then nobody anticipated the Korean War, right? Good thing Biden and Moon will be talking. As long as Biden doesn't fall for a "peace agreement" or "peace treaty," meaning the U.S. would have to pull out its 28,500 troops, this summit should be fine.

 

10. Biden Must Push President Moon to Get Real on ROK-China Relations

The National Interest · by Matthew Ha · by Mathew Ha · May 7, 2021

Another excellent essay from my colleague, Mathew Ha.

 

11. North Korea’s Kim Regime: A Contemporary Apartheid

nkhiddengulag.org · by Damian Reddy

I hate to keep beating a dead horse but we need to beat the drum about the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts: “However, the story for North Korea is quite different despite the similarities between South Africa’s apartheid regime and North Korea’s Kim regime remaining strikingly uncanny. Both systems demonstrate unjust control over its people, with a strict class system to ensure that there is a form of segregated development. One major difference is the basis for segregation: South Africa’s apartheid was based on racial discrimination, whereas North Korea’s discriminatory system is largely based on political ideology. Robert Collins, in his report on the parallels between the apartheid and songbun systems, informs of the discrimination that is practiced under songbun and argues that it includes characteristics of racism emanating from ideology.[10] In North Korea, ideology propagates that the Korean race is superior. An example of such racism is directed at the Chinese and Japanese. For example, if there is Chinese blood in one’s lineage, then one’s family can never be categorized as loyal in the songbun system.[11] Even greater discrimination is experienced if one is found with Japanese blood in one’s family.[12] This is a simple, but important example of how ideology in North Korea warrants the practice of discrimination. A similar narrative was told in South Africa under the apartheid regime—where the system created racial “superiority” and “inferiority.” The North Korean government may argue that it is not racially discriminatory, but if one were to remove race from South Africa’s apartheid and ideology from North Korea’s songbun, both systems would be identical. It is, therefore, recognized that North Korea’s Kim regime is practicing a contemporary form of apartheid, which is, in itself, a crime against humanity and one which is abolishable by international law.

 

12. Defector denounces raid for dispatching balloons to North

koreanjoongangdaily.joins .com  · by Kim Ji-Hye and Michael Lee

Key excerpts: ““The international community and all of humanity denounces the ban on sending leaflets into North Korea,” Park declared. "Even if we receive a three-year, 30-year prison term or capital punishment by hanging, we will continue sending information and the truth to our 20 million starving compatriots in the North."

In response to criticism that the law curbed freedom of expression, then-Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha defended the amendment in a December interview with CNN, arguing that leaflets sent over the DMZ “endanger the safety of people living in border regions.”

“Freedom of expression, I think, is absolutely vital to human rights, but it's not absolute. It can be limited,” she said.

PPP National Assembly Rep. Thae Yong-ho, who was deputy chief of mission at the North Korean embassy in London before defecting to the South, said the revision to the law “aimed at joining hands with Kim Jong-un and leaving North Koreans enslaved” in a speech attempting to delay the amendment’s passage in December.

The DP railroaded the amendment through the National Assembly six months after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong denounced North Korean defectors involved in sending propaganda balloons as “mongrel dogs,” and demanded the South halt the activities.

 

13. Opinions clashing in South Korea on how to handle 'pro-North' publications

The Korea Times · May 6, 2021

A complex issue. I have long opposed the part of the National Security Law about people having access to north Korean writings. I believe allowing citizens to read north Korean works will expose the lunacy of the Kim family regime. But the law exists and if you believe in the rule of law you have to follow it until it is rescinded. But I do not think people in the South who read Kim's memoirs are going to be "radicalized" and start believing in Juche.

That said, one thing not discussed is whether the publisher of Kim Il Sung-'s works have to pay royalties to the regime. Would Im Jong Seok collect royalties as he collects fees from broadcasters who use news reports from north Korea? 

 

14. It is time for Washington to show its leadership

donga.com

In vaccine distribution. A view from Korea.

 

----------------

 

"First tell yourself what kind of person you want to be, then do what you have to do. For in nearly every pursuit we see this to be the case. Those in athletic pursuit first choose the sport they want and then do the work."

-Epictetus

 

“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.” 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

“Dare to know! Have the courage to use your own intelligence.” 

- Immanuel Kant

Access the ASD SO/LIC Charter HERE.

DOD DIRECTIVE 5111.10 ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR SPECIAL OPERATIONS AND LOW-INTENSITY CONFLICT CHARTER

Purpose: Consistent with the authorities detailed in Sections 138 and 167 of Title 10, United States Code (U.S.C.), this issuance:

• Establishes the responsibilities and functions, relationships, and authorities of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC)).

• Designates the ASD(SO/LIC), as a Principal Staff Assistant (PSA) reporting directly to the Secretary of Defense, to assist the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, and to execute the responsibilities, functions, and authorities assigned in this issuance, and in accordance with applicable law, policy, DoD regulations, the November 18, 2020, and May 5, 2021, Secretary of Defense Memoranda, and the December 3, 2020, and December 30, 2020, Deputy Secretary of Defense Memoranda.

• The ASD(SO/LIC) reports directly to the Secretary of Defense in exercising authority, direction, and control of all special operations-peculiar administrative matters relating to the organization, training, and equipping of special operations forces. The ASD(SO/LIC) is also a member of the senior leader fora as designated in the November 18, 2020, Secretary of Defense Memorandum.

• The ASD(SO/LIC) is in the administrative chain of command and exercises authority, direction, and control of the Commander, U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), for special operations peculiar administration including the readiness and organization of special operations forces, resources and equipment, and civilian personnel (per section 167(f) of Title 10, U.S.C.).

• For all other policy matters, ASD(SO/LIC) will be subject to the authority, direction, and control of the Under Secretary of Defense (Policy).

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. DOD Optimizes Organizational Role of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict

2. Opinion | The Afghanistan War Will End as It Began: In Blood

3. Globalization’s Coming Golden Age

4. House Appropriators Fear Army Cuts, Continuing Resolution

5. Joint Chiefs chairman urges greater racial diversity in the military

6. Perspective | Authoritarian countries will try to use coronavirus vaccines as an internal cudgel

7. Opinion | The Pentagon must prepare for a much bigger theater of war

8. The Pentagon wants to take a harder line on domestic extremism. How far can it go?

9. Austin rolls back Trump-era policy on special ops

10. China Is a Paper Dragon

11. Bill To Combat Sexual Assault In Military Finally Has Votes To Pass, Senators Say

12. ‘That’s Why I Wear the Uniform:’ Milley Calls Racial, Religious Equality His ‘North Star’

13. "You Don't Belong Here" (Vietnam War - Women Reporting from the Frontlines)

14. Opinion | Russia’s plot to control the Internet is no longer a secret

15. How Tough Conditions and Contested Communication Are Forcing the US Military To Reinvent AI

16. ODNI quiet on '36-star' info war memo

17. IntelBrief: United to Fight Terrorism? Reviewing the UN’s Global Counterterrorism Strategy

18. Crash In Iraq Helps Unmask Secretive Ultra-Quiet Special Operations Drone Program

 

1. DOD Optimizes Organizational Role of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict

defense.gov

The SECDEF Memo can be accessed here: 

I am not sure the headline is accurate.  Is this really optimizing the organizational role of ASD SO/LIC?  (Note now called the SOLIC organization).

ASD SO/LIC reverts to control by USD(P).  However for the SOF enterprise and for the ADCON chain of command for SOF the ASD SO/LIC will directly report to the SECDEF.  (POTUS, SECDEF,ASD SO/LIC, CDR USSOCOM).

And this is a key point that is positive: "ASD SO/LIC will continue to have full access to the same fora that the Service Secretaries have."  This appears to be a recognition that SOF needs to be treated as a service level entity and an attempt to meet congressional intent.

But how is ASD SO/LIC organizationally optimized?  It is still too small and stretched too thin among a variety of responsibilities, many of which are not SOF related such as Counternarcotics and Global Threats (CNGT), Stability and Humanitarian Affairs (SHA), and the Office of Detainee Policy (ODP).  Over the years ASD SO/LIC has become the dumping ground for everything the rest of the Pentagon did not want to do - recall when Mike Lumpkin was ASD SO/LIC and they gave him responsibility for developing the Ebola response?  ASD SO/LIC was like the old cereal commercial - "Give it to Mikey - he will eat anything."

Perhaps we should look at reorganizing ASD SO/LIC, which was intended for SOF oversight, and providing the staff to fully perform its civilian oversight and ADCON responsibilities (and meet congressional intent).  

It seems that Pentagon Spokesman John Kirby has provided some additional important information that gets at my concern.  The new charter will be important.

Excerpt from the press conference: ”Also today, Secretary Austin, I think you may have seen, Secretary Austin directed that the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict. The Assistant Secretary for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict retained – the office retains its direct reporting chain to the Secretary for its administrative chain of command role over U.S. Special Operations Command.

The Assistant Secretary remains a principle staff assistant and will continue to have full access to the same floor that service secretaries have. The Secretary also directed that the SOLIC organization, as we call it, now we joined the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy organization. This will ensure that special operation's policy is fully integrated into all the other aspects of the department policy making process.

We'll soon be publishing a revised charter which will further codify SOLIC's – the ASD for SOLIC's role and responsibilities. These efforts are significant steps forward toward strengthen civilian oversight of U.S. Special Operations Command and the provision of integrated policy advise for the Secretary and for the department.”

 

2. Opinion | The Afghanistan War Will End as It Began: In Blood

The New York Times · by Elliot Ackerman · May 5, 2021

Note this excerpt: "Unlike the withdrawal from Iraq, in which U.S. troops could drive through the desert into Kuwait as they did in 2011, and unlike the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, in which they could drive across a then-shared border, U.S. troops are currently marooned in Afghanistan, reliant on three principal U.S.-controlled airstrips (Bagram, Jalalabad, Kandahar), making their journey home all the more perilous."

 

3. Globalization’s Coming Golden Age

Foreign Affairs · by Harold James · May 5, 2021

A sober critique and warning: “Governments and businesses also need to continuously innovate. As it did in the 1840s, isolationism today would mean cutting off opportunities to learn from different experiments. No single country, or its particular culture of science and innovation, was responsible for the development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine—one of the miracles of 2020. Success was the product of intense international collaboration. This story of innovation also applies to government competence. No state can succeed alone. Even if one particular decision is by chance spectacularly successful—say, Germany’s impressive testing record or the United Kingdom’s fast vaccine rollout—it is usually difficult to repeat that success in other policy areas. Policymakers may stride confidently past their first victory, only to slip on a banana peel.

The United States, in particular, may find this a hard pill to swallow. Americans have long been attached to the idea of their country’s superiority, akin to the belief held by the British in the mid-nineteenth century. COVID-19, like the 1840s famines and the 1970s oil shocks, presents both a crisis and a learning opportunity. The United States has coasted on the idea that the world needs the English language and the U.S. dollar. Neither of those assumptions can hold forever. Just as automatic translation technology is increasing linguistic accessibility, a different currency could become a new international standard. The dollar is not an adequate insurance policy or a viable basis for Washington to reject the need for change.

The challenge of the new upswing in the cycle of globalization will be to find ways to learn and adapt—increasing the effectiveness of government and business—without compromising fundamental values. As in the 1840s and the 1970s, financial and monetary innovation, or the tonic of inflation, will drive transformational change. Memories of crisis will push countries and governments to adapt in 2021 and beyond, just as they have before.

 

4. House Appropriators Fear Army Cuts, Continuing Resolution

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. and Paul McLeary · May 5, 2021

Excerpts: “The Senate Armed Services Committee has already said it’s not taking up the budget until July, and the House Armed Services Committee is uncertain when they will begin their markup. So the prospect of a Continuing Resolution is very real.

“When a budget request has been submitted on time, the delay in enacting the appropriations has only been about one month,” said Todd Harrison, director of Defense Budget Analysis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on a recent call with reporters. In years when the budget request was submitted more than a week late, however, “we’ve seen the average CR go closer to almost four months on average.”

Overall, Harrison said, “the later this budget request is submitted, the harder it’s going to be for them to get this through anywhere close to the start of the fiscal year.”

House Appropriators Fear Army Cuts, Continuing Resolution

“It looks like the Army’s going to take the lion’s share of the cuts,” possibly losing a tank brigade, warned Texas Republican John Carter.

 

5. Joint Chiefs chairman urges greater racial diversity in the military

militarytimes.com · by Robert Burns, Lolita Baldor · May 5, 2021

Not to take away from the important message of General Milley in this article, but note the 6 "traditional" combat jobs. (SF not "traditional" or not a path for promotion to senior ranks.  In terms of "traditional" Aviation was established as a branch in 1983 and SF in 1987 but I guess those four years are the difference in "traditional." 

Excerpts: “Army officers in combat jobs — infantry, armor, field artillery, air defense, aviation and engineer — are more likely to gain the experience that can get them promoted to more senior ranks. Evans said the Army is sending more diverse young officers from those particular fields to historically Black and Hispanic colleges to interact with cadets.

“It might inform their choices about selecting one of the, what we call the traditional six combat arms branches, as a career path,” he said.

 

6. Perspective | Authoritarian countries will try to use coronavirus vaccines as an internal cudgel

The Washington Post · by David Adesnik · May 5, 2021

Excerpts: “For the moment and probably for the rest of the year, the demand for vaccines in low-income nations will far outstrip the inventory available to Covax. Triage is unavoidable. One way to help address the problems of unfair distribution within countries would be to change the allocation process so that the readiness of recipient nations to distribute vaccines in a just and equitable manner should influence the allocation process, which currently employs an algorithm that prioritizes equality among countries, not equity within them.

This shift would actually be consistent with the principles Covax has adopted: The initiative commissioned a panel of experts to develop a values framework for allocating vaccines, as well as a road map for equitable delivery of limited supplies. There is also detailed guidance for the development of national vaccination plans. The values framework warns there should be “no tolerance for personal, financial, or political conflicts of interest or corruption.” Yet without independent monitoring, such aspirations are sterile.

The WHO and Covax leadership should broaden their view of vaccine equity to encompass responsibility for what happens after a partner state receives its doses. In all likelihood, this change will require the Biden administration and the other main Covax donors, especially Germany, the European Commission and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, to make clear their support depends on efforts to forestall abuse. It is not just a matter of principle, but one of self-interest. As Tedros observed, one cannot put out only part of a fire.

 

7. Opinion | The Pentagon must prepare for a much bigger theater of war

The Washington Post · by Lloyd J. Austin III · May 5, 2021

Excerpts: “Any adversary thinking about pressing for advantage in one domain must know that we can respond not just in that arena but in many others as well. The power to deter rests on our ability to respond to aggression in the time and manner of our choosing.

This won’t be easy. The nature of warfare is changing; it spans an unprecedented theater that stretches from the heavens to cyberspace and far into the oceans’ depths. That demands new thinking and new action inside the Defense Department. We must redouble our efforts to work together — with allies and partners, across commands, across services and across our fiefdoms and stovepipes.

It is always easier to stamp out a small ember than to put out a raging fire. We must think harder and more creatively about preventing the future fight. And if we can’t prevent it, we need to be ready to win it, and to win it decisively.”

I am reminded of the parable of the physician in Thomas Cleary's translation of Sun Tzu's The Art of War. 

 

8. The Pentagon wants to take a harder line on domestic extremism. How far can it go?

The Washington Post · by Missy Ryan · May 5, 2021

The Pentagon needs to be very careful on how it goes down this path.  It must get this right or risk confirming extremist narratives and radicalizing those who feel targeted without cause.

 

9. Austin rolls back Trump-era policy on special ops

Politico

I do not think it was a total roll-back. In the SECDEF's defense it seems like he is trying to meet congressional intent - though I think at the very minimum level.

 

10. China Is a Paper Dragon

The Atlantic · by David Frum · May 3, 2021

Remember that Sun Tzu said: "Do not assume your enemy will not attack.  Make yourself invincible."

But this is an interesting read.

 

11. Bill To Combat Sexual Assault In Military Finally Has Votes To Pass, Senators Say

NPR · by Claudia Grisales · May 6, 2021

This could be the most significant change in military order and discipline in recent history.

Excerpts: “Advocate groups have repeatedly said that there has been no improvement despite decades of promises from leadership and commanders, saying the commander-controlled system has failed to deliver accountability.

The military has reported climbing figures in reports of sexual assaults. In 2019, the Pentagon reported that about 20,500 service members had experienced some form of such an assault. That was 37% higher than two years earlier.

This, as the rate of prosecution and conviction for related cases has been cut in half to about 7% since Gillibrand first introduced her legislation, she says. Gillibrand also said that the current structure, while allowing such crimes to be pervasive, also hurts military readiness.

The issue drew renewed attention in 2019, when former Arizona GOP Sen. Martha McSally said during a related hearing she was raped by a superior officer. However, the retired Air Force colonel, who lost her Senate seat to Democrat Mark Kelly this past year, was opposed to Gillibrand's proposal. Kelly has since signed on as a co-sponsor of the bill.

"A lot of people have begun to change their minds," Gillibrand said.

 

12. ‘That’s Why I Wear the Uniform:’ Milley Calls Racial, Religious Equality His ‘North Star’

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp 

Powerful words from the Chairman.  Will they resonate with the force?

 

13. "You Don't Belong Here" (Vietnam War - Women Reporting from the Frontlines)

WNYC· May 4, 2021
This is a story very much worth listening to.  I think I will add Elizabeth Becker's book to my "too read pile."

 

14. Opinion | Russia’s plot to control the Internet is no longer a secret

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · May 4, 2021

We must protect the internet from despots like Putin (and Xi, etc).  We should not forget who created it: “Internet technical governance today is managed by ICANN, which stands for Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers. This gathering of engineers and other experts was founded in 1998 to supervise domain names for the Defense Department’s ARPANET system, and it operated under a contract with the Commerce Department until 2016, when it went fully private.

The American roots of the Internet seem to both upset Putin and fuel conspiratorial talk. The Russian leader said during a 2014 interview translated by RT that the Internet “first appeared as a special CIA project . . . and the special services are still at the center of things.” Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president, complained in a February interview: “The Internet emerged at a certain time, and undoubtedly the key rights to control are in the United States.”

Russia is ready to rumble over the rules that will shape the future of Internet communications. Fortunately, the Biden administration seems determined to fight back hard to maintain fair and open rules.”

 

15. How Tough Conditions and Contested Communication Are Forcing the US Military To Reinvent AI

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Fascinating read:

“Tim Chung, a program manager at DARPA working to create highly autonomous subterranean robotics through the so-called SubT challenge, described the difficulty of finding “actionable situational intelligence,” and making sure both the human and the robot know the definition of what that is, since it’s hard to predict what the robot might encounter in, say, a network of underground tunnels or a collapsed building.

“It’s not just good enough to know [that] there’s a left turn, a drop, a corridor. What you really want are refined coordinates to where that survivor is located,” Chung said “‘Actionable’ is something that must be defined both by the robot as well as also the human supervisor in the loop, and so these robots must balance how much perception they carry with how reliant they are on communications.” Chung spoke as part of a recorded Defense One session on the future of battlefield AI that will air on Thursday.)

But it’s not just bandwidth that’s constrained in these environments. Human attention is also a scarce commodity. That’s why SOCOM is working with operators to better understand when they have more thought to give to incoming machine communication, Sanders said.

“If I am training a partner nation, the amount of information I can hold without becoming overwhelmed might be different than deployed in a covert location for three days and I know that there are bad guys right around the corner that are going to shoot me. That tradeoff of cognitive human machine burden is very fungible. It changes depending on the situation and the person,” she said. “We are gathering real life information from our warfighters and developing great advocacy with them…It’s an ongoing experimentation.”

 

16. ODNI quiet on '36-star' info war memo

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

 

17. IntelBrief: United to Fight Terrorism? Reviewing the UN’s Global Counterterrorism Strategy

thedrive.com · by Joseph Trevithick · May 4, 2021

Conclusion: "Finally, this is an unusual year with multiple UN negotiations converging due to the pandemic. Such timing allows states a rare opportunity to reassess the UN’s institutional and operational response to international terrorism, nearly twenty years following the attacks of September 11, 2001, ten years after the death of Osama bin Laden, and the same year as the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. During the review of the GCTS in the General Assembly, states will also have to determine whether the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism receives increased UN budgetary assistance, or remains dependent upon voluntary extra-budgetary donations. States are likely to be increasingly conservative about expanding the UN’s budget in the current climate. However, the status quo process means that the program of work is not necessarily determined by counterterrorism assessments and needs, but rather by donor preferences and politics. Following this, the Security Council will have to determine the mandates of two important expert bodies – the al-Qaeda/ISIS Sanctions Monitoring Team and the Counter-Terrorism Executive Directorate (CTED). These are also critical opportunities to think about the political, operational, and substantive directions for these bodies, and consider a closer integration of efforts with the UN Office of Drugs and Crime, and its Terrorism Prevention Branch, in Vienna. However, given the evolution of terrorist threats, overstretched budgets and resources in states’ capitals, and the return of great power competition, states will need to determine if the UN is fit for purpose for the terrorism landscape; this will necessarily include ensuring that is resourced to facilitate its effectiveness and responsiveness in this current operating environment."

 

--------------

 

"The meaning of politics is freedom.” Hannah Arendt

 

"There is no political freedom for citizens who think and do not judge!

I vote for civil rights today for freedom."

- Jihyun Park-박지현, Escapee from north Korea, Conservative Political Candidate in the UK

 

"Then what a beautiful human being? Isn't it the presence of human excellence? Young friend, if you wish to be beautiful,then work diligently at human excellence. And what is that? Observe those whom you praise without prejudice. The just or the unjust? The just. The even-tempered or the undisciplined? the even-tempered. The self-controlled or the uncontrolled? The self-controlled. in making yourself that kind of person, you will become beautiful – but to the extent you ignore these qualities, you'll be ugly, even if you use every trick in the book to appear beautiful."

- Epictetus

 

 

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden’s North Korea plans come into view

2. Can South Korea Continue to Balance Relations with the United States and China?

3. Japan and South Korea air their differences as US seeks unity at G-7 meeting

4. Opinion | Biden’s North Korea strategy: Hurry up and wait

5. G7 foreign ministers urge N. Korea to return to dialogue

6. North Korea getting ready for COVID-19 vaccines after reporting 'zero' cases

7. Police conduct raid over anti-N.K. leafleting

8. U.S. policy appears aimed at addressing N.K. nuke issue through dialogue: Seoul official

9. Unification ministry views U.S. attempt to reach out to N.K. positively: official

10. South Korea Discovers It Can Out-Bully North Korea

11. N.K. paper warns of virus infections via 'strange objects' in air

12. Three teenagers in N. Pyongan Province sent to reeducation camp for listening to S. Korean music

13. U.S. again reaches out to N. Korea but to no avail: WP column

14. N.K. leader, his wife attend art performance by army families

15. 'I escaped the horrors of North Korea – now I want to solve Bury's fly-tipping crisis'

16. Just How New Is Joe Biden's 'New' North Korea Policy?

 

1. Biden’s North Korea plans come into view

lowyinstitute.org · by Soo Kim

"Short on details" and "the guessing game continues." . I am sure there will be a thorough public articulation of the broad contours of the policy. But I hope there is a detailed classified version that we do not see.

Excerpts: “All of this is indeed speculation, although we may not be in the dark for much longer. US President Joe Biden is slated to meet with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on 21 May for their first in-person summit since the inauguration. The two sides are expected to discuss a range of policy issues, including curbing the Kim regime’s nuclear ambitions and addressing its poor track record on human rights. The Biden administration may unveil its North Korea policy in full after the US–South Korea summit.

In the meantime, the guessing games will continue.”

 

2. Can South Korea Continue to Balance Relations with the United States and China?

KEIA · by Terrence Matsuo · May 5, 2021

A key challenge for the ROK and the US.

 

3. Japan and South Korea air their differences as US seeks unity at G-7 meeting

Strait Times

Excerpts: “In his one-on-one meeting with Motegi, Chung expressed opposition to Japan's decision to release contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant without sufficient prior consultation with neighbouring countries, the South Korean government said. Motegi said he would continue to provide information and expressed concern about South Korean statements on the matter.

Motegi urged South Korea to find an early solution to the problem of compensation for Koreans forced to work for Japanese companies during colonial occupation, as well as women trafficked to Japanese military brothels before and during the war.”

 

4. Opinion | Biden’s North Korea strategy: Hurry up and wait

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · May 5, 2021

I think Mr. Rogin would be better served if he waited until the policy is presented before deciding the new policy is "strategic place."

I certainly hope this assessment is not correct:

“It’s clear that the Biden administration has several foreign policy priorities, and that spending time, resources and political capital on the North Korea issue isn’t one of them. Trump failed on North Korea, but at least he tried. The Biden team is going to have to try harder, and they would be better off doing that sooner rather than later.”

 

5. G7 foreign ministers urge N. Korea to return to dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 6, 2021

Everyone wants north Korea to return to dialogue. I do not think there is any country that opposes a return to dialogue - except perhaps north Korea. It is Kim that has refused to negotiate in good faith as a responsible member of the international community.

 

6. North Korea getting ready for COVID-19 vaccines after reporting 'zero' cases

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · May 5, 2021

It would be something if north Korea could get vaccinated before there is ever a COVID breakout (note sarcasm).

 

7. Police conduct raid over anti-N.K. leafleting

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · May 6, 2021

Despicable. And a huge self-inflicted wound for the ROKG and ruling party.

 

8. U.S. policy appears aimed at addressing N.K. nuke issue through dialogue: Seoul official

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 6, 2021

Who does not want dialogue? Only KJU.

 

9. Unification ministry views U.S. attempt to reach out to N.K. positively: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 6, 2021

We can expect the ROKG to put a positive spin on the Biden Korea policy and to try to shape it to align with the Moon administration's peace agenda.

 

10. South Korea Discovers It Can Out-Bully North Korea

Forbes · by David Axe · May 5, 2021

Definitely a curious headline. Interesting analysis.

Excerpts: “If North Korea dares to repeat its 2010 provocations—sinking ships and shelling islands—South Korea could shoot back in a precise way. And the regime of North Korean strongman Kim Jong Un knows it.

“Since 2011, North Korea has mostly refrained from provocations as overt as the 2014 direct naval bombardment of the Northwest Islands and certainly the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan,” RAND explained. “During the high notes of tensions during the mid-2010s, Pyongyang largely resorted to public statements and bombastic rhetoric against Seoul and Washington.”

But that doesn’t mean North Korea wants peace. Rather, it aims to provoke without risking a damaging response. “The North Korean military has ... expanded its cyber capabilities since 2010, providing Pyongyang a means of provocation and retaliation that exposed a yawning gap in Seoul’s deterrence policy,” according to RAND.”

 

11.  N.K. paper warns of virus infections via 'strange objects' in air

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 6, 2021

Mark my words - when there is finally a reported outbreak in the north if contact tracing process will reveal COVID was transported by the balloons from escapees in the South. The Propaganda and Agitation department is laying the groundwork to blame COVID on South Korea and specific escapees in the South.

 

12. Three teenagers in N. Pyongan Province sent to reeducation camp for listening to S. Korean music

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 5, 2021

As an escapee told us during North Korean Freedom Week, the Korean people know the risks yet it will not deter them from trying to obtain any information from the outside world.

 

13. U.S. again reaches out to N. Korea but to no avail: WP column

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 6, 2021

It will be a mistake not to appoint a north Korean special representative. 

But this kind of information from Rogin and the Korean press is really misinformation:

“The Joe Biden administration has said it had sought to engage with North Korea since mid-February, but that the reclusive nation did not respond to its overtures.

"The Biden team quietly reached out to Pyongyang in February but got no response. Nor has the Kim regime responded to a second attempt by Team Biden to convey the results of this now-completed review," he wrote, citing two unidentified "senior administration officials."

I believe the "reaching out" to the north in February was simply a diplomatic courtesy to inform the north that the Biden administration was reviewing its policy. Yes there was no response from the north but it was not as if the US was groveling to the regime for engagement. It was simply taking routine diplomatic actions.

 

14. N.K. leader, his wife attend art performance by army families

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 6, 2021

For Kim ideological purity is a top priority.

Excerpts: “Kim lauded the KPA after watching the show, saying it "always sets an example in implementing the party's policy on mass-based culture and art."

He also urged the North to learn from the "ardent patriotism, strong capacity for living and high ideological and spiritual world" of the army families.”

 

15. 'I escaped the horrors of North Korea – now I want to solve Bury's fly-tipping crisis'

uk.news.yahoo.com

Jihyun Park is an extraordinary woman. Her story needs to be told inside north Korea. The Koreans in the north need to know about her example - how an escapee can rise to political leadership in a western country. Her story will provide hope and inspiration.

 

16. Just How New Is Joe Biden's 'New' North Korea Policy?

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · May 5, 2021

Again, we still need to see the details.

 

-------------

 

"The meaning of politics is freedom.” Hannah Arendt

 

"There is no political freedom for citizens who think and do not judge!

I vote for civil rights today for freedom."

- Jihyun Park-박지현, Escapee from north Korea, Conservative Political Candidate in the UK

 

"Then what a beautiful human being? Isn't it the presence of human excellence? Young friend, if you wish to be beautiful,then work diligently at human excellence. And what is that? Observe those whom you praise without prejudice. The just or the unjust? The just. The even-tempered or the undisciplined? the even-tempered. The self-controlled or the uncontrolled? The self-controlled. in making yourself that kind of person, you will become beautiful – but to the extent you ignore these qualities, you'll be ugly, even if you use every trick in the book to appear beautiful."

- Epictetus

The SECDEF Memo can be access HERE: 

DOD Optimizes Organizational Role of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict

defense.gov

Immediate Release

May 5, 2021

Today Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III signed a memorandum directing a further optimization of the organization of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (ASD(SO/LIC) as called for by the 2017 NDAA.

The SO/LIC organization now rejoins the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy organization, but retains its direct reporting chain to the Secretary for its administrative chain of command role over U.S. Special Operations Command. ASD(SO/LIC) remains a Principal Staff Assistant and will continue to have full access to the same fora that the Service Secretaries have. The Deputy Secretary of Defense will ensure SO/LIC maintains dedicated resources and grows to a level commensurate with its increased responsibilities.

This change ensures that Special Operations policy is fully integrated into all aspects of the Department’s policies.

The memo on the Organizational Role of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict can be found here.

Defense Secretary Austin

Subscribe to Defense.gov Products

Choose which Defense.gov products you want delivered to your inbox.

Subscribe