Small Wars Journal

05/07/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Fri, 05/07/2021 - 9:52am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea unlikely to carry out provocations ahead of S. Korea-U.S. summit: minister

2. FM Chung says it's 'desirable' for U.S. to appoint special representative for N. Korea

3. N.K. tightens antivirus efforts in border area within range of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

4. PM nominee calls anti-N.K. leafleting threat to public safety

5. N. Korea briefly placed under state of alert following kidnapping of security agency official's son

6. G7 ministers endorse Biden’s North Korea policy

7. S. Korea raids activist's office over anti-North leaflets

8. FDD | Taliban takes control of two districts in Afghan north

9. Just another Korea-US summit

10. Biden Must Push President Moon to Get Real on ROK-China Relations

11. North Korea’s Kim Regime: A Contemporary Apartheid

12. Defector denounces raid for dispatching balloons to North

13. Opinions clashing in South Korea on how to handle 'pro-North' publications

14. It is time for Washington to show its leadership

 

1. N. Korea unlikely to carry out provocations ahead of S. Korea-U.S. summit: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 7, 2021

Wishful thinking or accurate assessment?

I worry these kinds of estimates make people complacent and frankly I do not hold the Ministry of Unification in high regard in offering "intelligence estimates" though the Minister does caveat his assessment saying we cannot rule out all possibilities and he is really parroting the assessments of "many experts." But we should ask if the ROK military is on alert? Where are the Aegis equipped ROK ships? The last few missile tests conducted by north Korean found those whips in port and unable to surveil those tests.

Again, to beat a dead horse, I am reminded of Sun Tzu: "Do not assume your enemy will not attack. Make yourself invincible."

 

2. FM Chung says it's 'desirable' for U.S. to appoint special representative for N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 7, 2021

I am hearing rumors (and Josh Rogin wrote this early this week) that the administration may not appoint a special representative. I think that would be a mistake.

I think as part of a strategic messaging campaign for the new policy the administration should announce its senior Korea team for implementation of the policy: A new special representative. a special envoy for north Korean human rights, a new US ambassador to South Korea, and the new commander for US forces in Korea (the nomination of General LaCamera was submitted to the Senate on April 27 but so far no confirmation hearing has been scheduled (or at least made public). 

In speaking with some Korea experts there is a belief there may only be a short window for diplomacy and the US needs to be ready to seize any opportunity. We need to have our senior Korea team in place and prepared to exploit any opportunities.

 

3. N.K. tightens antivirus efforts in border area within range of anti-Pyongyang leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 7, 2021

Another indicator that the regime views information as an existential threat to the survival of the regime. And it is interesting to note how the regime is exploiting the threat of COVID to be able to institute draconian population and resources control measures to try to prevent the military and the local population from access to information in the frontline areas.

 

4. PM nominee calls anti-N.K. leafleting threat to public safety

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · May 7, 2021

This is really the height of hypocrisy. How many citizens in the South have been harmed by a north Korean response to information and influence activities? How many incidents have occurred not related to information activities which resulted in casualties among Korean civilians? And rather than restrict the human rights of those in the South (to include escapees who are Korean citizens) why doesn't the government improve defenses to protect Korean citizens? Those who consent to government usually demand security while protecting their rights and individual liberties. It is up to the government to balance security and protection of individual liberties but the ROKG is taking what appears to be the easy way out and just restricting the rights in a misguided and futile effort to improve security. And that is the irony of the ROK actions. The north will not cease its provocations and the potential for civilian casualties will always remain.

 

5. N. Korea briefly placed under state of alert following kidnapping of security agency official's son

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 7, 2021

A feud? Revenge? Criminal activity? Desperation for money? indicator of resistance? An interesting combination of apparent reasons.  

 

6. G7 ministers endorse Biden’s North Korea policy

donga.com · May 7, 2021

CVIA? Did someone receive an award for a new acronym? Seriously, note the statement about compliance with all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions. This is apparently a key element in the new Biden administration Korea policy. Also, countering the north's sanctions evasion tactics requires an aggressive international effort.

The statement adopted the expression‎ CVIA (complete, verifiable, irreversible abandonment) in regard with North Korea’s nuclear program. Previously, they used CVID for “Denuclearization” or “Dismantlement”, providing room for speculation that the ministers shunned from the expression‎ of “CVID” as the North detests it. The G7 ministers also voiced the need for keeping sanctions against Pyongyang in unison. “It is critical that sanctions which target the DPRK's unlawful weapons development remain in place while its programs exist," they said, stressing the need to fully implement the UN Security Council resolutions on the communist regime. They further vowed to counter the North’s “sanctions-evasion tactics, particularly its illicit maritime activities including ship-to-ship transfers.”

 

7. S. Korea raids activist's office over anti-North leaflets

The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim · May 6, 2021

Again, the ROKG needs to rescind the law and cease these actions that violate the human rights of Korean citizens.

 

8. FDD | Taliban takes control of two districts in Afghan north

fdd.org · by Bill Roggio · May 6, 2021

Excerpt:While many press outfits are describing the spike in Taliban attacks as an offensive, the reality is that the group’s current operations are a continuation of its violence against the Afghan government and people. A Taliban offensive will likely look much different, and include thousands of fighters massing to seize provincial capitals, perhaps several at once. The Taliban previous took control of Kunduz City (twice, Farah City, and Ghazni City) and held them for short periods of time even while U.S. forces were in country and supporting the Afghan military.

 

9. Just another Korea-US summit

The Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · May 6, 2021

Donald Kirk possesses one of the most important characteristics of a professional journalist: He is the consummate skeptic! And he is the pithiest writer I know.

Excerpts: “You can't blame Moon for imagining it might still be possible to bring Kim to his senses and persuade him he's got far more to gain by forgetting about nukes and opening his country up to capitalism as China did under Deng Xiaoping. Moon's popularity ratings have dropped so low, he needs Biden to smooth the way to rapprochement by easing up on U.S. demands for denuclearization.

Ho hum. We've been there before. None of this is going to work. Rhetoric will intensify. And China will come to the North's rescue, shipping oil and food and other vital products to North Korea despite sanctions and COVID-19.

You have to wonder, though, how long can this standoff last before one leader or another says "I'm not going to take it anymore," loses patience and fires the first shots.

Fear not, that won't happen any time soon. The North is too weak, too emaciated by COVID, hunger and a lack of medicine, to fight anyone, but then nobody anticipated the Korean War, right? Good thing Biden and Moon will be talking. As long as Biden doesn't fall for a "peace agreement" or "peace treaty," meaning the U.S. would have to pull out its 28,500 troops, this summit should be fine.

 

10. Biden Must Push President Moon to Get Real on ROK-China Relations

The National Interest · by Matthew Ha · by Mathew Ha · May 7, 2021

Another excellent essay from my colleague, Mathew Ha.

 

11. North Korea’s Kim Regime: A Contemporary Apartheid

nkhiddengulag.org · by Damian Reddy

I hate to keep beating a dead horse but we need to beat the drum about the evil nature of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts: “However, the story for North Korea is quite different despite the similarities between South Africa’s apartheid regime and North Korea’s Kim regime remaining strikingly uncanny. Both systems demonstrate unjust control over its people, with a strict class system to ensure that there is a form of segregated development. One major difference is the basis for segregation: South Africa’s apartheid was based on racial discrimination, whereas North Korea’s discriminatory system is largely based on political ideology. Robert Collins, in his report on the parallels between the apartheid and songbun systems, informs of the discrimination that is practiced under songbun and argues that it includes characteristics of racism emanating from ideology.[10] In North Korea, ideology propagates that the Korean race is superior. An example of such racism is directed at the Chinese and Japanese. For example, if there is Chinese blood in one’s lineage, then one’s family can never be categorized as loyal in the songbun system.[11] Even greater discrimination is experienced if one is found with Japanese blood in one’s family.[12] This is a simple, but important example of how ideology in North Korea warrants the practice of discrimination. A similar narrative was told in South Africa under the apartheid regime—where the system created racial “superiority” and “inferiority.” The North Korean government may argue that it is not racially discriminatory, but if one were to remove race from South Africa’s apartheid and ideology from North Korea’s songbun, both systems would be identical. It is, therefore, recognized that North Korea’s Kim regime is practicing a contemporary form of apartheid, which is, in itself, a crime against humanity and one which is abolishable by international law.

 

12. Defector denounces raid for dispatching balloons to North

koreanjoongangdaily.joins .com  · by Kim Ji-Hye and Michael Lee

Key excerpts: ““The international community and all of humanity denounces the ban on sending leaflets into North Korea,” Park declared. "Even if we receive a three-year, 30-year prison term or capital punishment by hanging, we will continue sending information and the truth to our 20 million starving compatriots in the North."

In response to criticism that the law curbed freedom of expression, then-Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha defended the amendment in a December interview with CNN, arguing that leaflets sent over the DMZ “endanger the safety of people living in border regions.”

“Freedom of expression, I think, is absolutely vital to human rights, but it's not absolute. It can be limited,” she said.

PPP National Assembly Rep. Thae Yong-ho, who was deputy chief of mission at the North Korean embassy in London before defecting to the South, said the revision to the law “aimed at joining hands with Kim Jong-un and leaving North Koreans enslaved” in a speech attempting to delay the amendment’s passage in December.

The DP railroaded the amendment through the National Assembly six months after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s sister Kim Yo-jong denounced North Korean defectors involved in sending propaganda balloons as “mongrel dogs,” and demanded the South halt the activities.

 

13. Opinions clashing in South Korea on how to handle 'pro-North' publications

The Korea Times · May 6, 2021

A complex issue. I have long opposed the part of the National Security Law about people having access to north Korean writings. I believe allowing citizens to read north Korean works will expose the lunacy of the Kim family regime. But the law exists and if you believe in the rule of law you have to follow it until it is rescinded. But I do not think people in the South who read Kim's memoirs are going to be "radicalized" and start believing in Juche.

That said, one thing not discussed is whether the publisher of Kim Il Sung-'s works have to pay royalties to the regime. Would Im Jong Seok collect royalties as he collects fees from broadcasters who use news reports from north Korea? 

 

14. It is time for Washington to show its leadership

donga.com

In vaccine distribution. A view from Korea.

 

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"First tell yourself what kind of person you want to be, then do what you have to do. For in nearly every pursuit we see this to be the case. Those in athletic pursuit first choose the sport they want and then do the work."

-Epictetus

 

“An ounce of action is worth a ton of theory.” 

- Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

“Dare to know! Have the courage to use your own intelligence.” 

- Immanuel Kant

Categories: News