News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. How American Politics Got Troops Stuck—and Killed—in Afghanistan

2. Antony Blinken warns China: 'It would be a very serious mistake' to attack Taiwan

3. US Presses Taliban to Ease Violence, Resume Peace Talks

4. Xi claims ultimate authority, adopts Mao's title 'helmsman'

5. Cyber Command shifts counterterrorism task force to focus on higher-priority threats

6. Why Afghanistan is critical to the struggle against China, Russia and Iran

7. Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity

8. Leaving Afghanistan Will Make America Less Safe

9. Failing to Train: Conventional Forces in Irregular Warfare

10. #Reviewing Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World

11. Opinion | Biden’s Taiwan Policy Is Truly, Deeply Reckless

12. Any reduction in Energy Department's cybersecurity resources a mistake

13. Eddie Gallagher now says SEALs intended to kill unarmed fighter and ‘nobody had a problem with it’

14. Opinion: China's New Silk Road is full of potholes

15. China does not want war, at least not yet. It’s playing the long game

16. As U.S. warns of invasion, Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat

 

1. How American Politics Got Troops Stuck—and Killed—in Afghanistan

Politico · by Erik Edstrom · May 4, 2021

What a powerful and sobering essay. There is so much to unpack in this.  Make sure you read to the end to find out about what happened to the soldier, A.J. Nelson.

 

2. Antony Blinken warns China: 'It would be a very serious mistake' to attack Taiwan

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · May 4, 2021

Excerpt: “The bottom line is we have managed Taiwan, I think, quite well and quite effectively,” Blinken said. "What is very troubling and very concerning is that Beijing seems to be taking a different approach, acting aggressively.”

 

3. US Presses Taliban to Ease Violence, Resume Peace Talks

voanews.com ·  Ayaz Gul · May 4, 2021

What leverage or incentive is there if the US is committed to leaving by September 11th? Are we going to initiate military operations on a scale sufficient to cause the Taliban to halt the violence?

Questions I wonder about: What changes to conditions might cause the US to reverse or at least postpone the decision to withdraw? Since the withdrawal process has begun at what point will we no longer have the military capabilities to conduct operations beyond defending the withdrawal? What is the point of no return for the withdrawal -e.g., at what point will we no longer have the military capabilities to support Afghan forces and thus can only be fully committed to the withdrawal? What is the point of no return? And at that point what do we expect the Taliban, AQ, or ISIS to do?

 

4. Xi claims ultimate authority, adopts Mao's title 'helmsman'

washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz

Excerpt:  “The most famous sobriquet of Mao, founder of the Chinese Communist Party and hero of the Chinese Revolution, was “Great Helmsman.” Mr. Xi’s use of the term highlights what analysts say is his plan to consolidate his rule under an extreme Chinese version of communism.”

 

5. Cyber Command shifts counterterrorism task force to focus on higher-priority threats

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · May 4, 2021

CT is no longer fashionable. But terrorism is not going away. The question is can we walk and chew gum at the same time? Can we compete in great power competition and still commit sufficient resources and capabilities to counter violent extremist organizations? Cyber will always provide critical capabilities to the CT fight.

 

6. Why Afghanistan is critical to the struggle against China, Russia and Iran

militarytimes.com · by Rep. Michael Waltz · May 3, 2021

Excerpts: “Bagram Airfield remains our sole strategic key terrain in the backyards of three of our four global competitors — China, Russia, and Iran — and we have no other options in the region.

The governments in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan have shown little willingness to host American bases and the Gulf states are problematic as our aircraft have to fly over Iran or Pakistan.

We will be effectively blind in our abilities to fight back, should terrorists based in Afghanistan successfully launch another attack on our homeland.

Like the Obama administration, President Biden is dealing with the world as it wishes it to be rather than accepting the tough reality of what it is.

The United States cannot give up this key terrain that we have spent so much blood and treasure to fight for and may cost us far more lives if we have to fight without it in the future.

 

7. Afghanistan’s Moment of Risk and Opportunity

Foreign Affairs · by Ashraf Ghani · May 4, 2021

The president of a country should know what's best for his country and we should pay attention.

Conclusion: "As we move into uncharted waters for Afghanistan, I am focused on achieving the best possible outcome of this long period of conflict: a sovereign, Islamic, democratic, united, neutral, and connected Afghanistan. I am willing to compromise and sacrifice to achieve that. The withdrawal of U.S. troops is an opportunity to get us closer to that end state, but only if all Afghans and their international partners commit to a clear path forward and stay the course."

 

8. Leaving Afghanistan Will Make America Less Safe

warontherocks.com · by Bruce Hoffman · May 5, 2021

Conclusion: "There are no perfect options. But instead of turning its back on Afghanistan, the United States should shift its rhetoric in the “Global War on Terror” away from “winning” and “losing” and toward “managing” and “accepting.” This would facilitate an ongoing but limited troop presence with a clear homeland security, not nation-building, brief. Keeping a small number of elite troops in Afghanistan, while unlikely to elicit roars of approval at campaign rallies in the 2024 presidential race, would likely keep both the Taliban and al-Qaeda at bay in the country while protecting a forward operating base on China’s and Russia’s doorstep. Withdrawal, by contrast, will be universally seen as defeat. As with bin Laden 25 years ago, it will give a rhetorical victory to terrorists the world over. And it will boost the morale of state adversaries that benefit from the perception of U.S. weakness."

 

9. Failing to Train: Conventional Forces in Irregular Warfare

mwi.usma.edu · by James W. Derleth · May 5, 2021

A lack of irregular warfare education and training for the military writ large. Congress has a partial "fix" for this in the NDAA Section 1299L. Of course we really need a "center" that goes beyond DOD - we need an interagency center at the national level. Irregular warfare is the DOD contribution to the national level political warfare effort.  

 

10. #Reviewing Power on the Precipice: The Six Choices America Faces in a Turbulent World

thestrategybridge.org · by Frank Hoffman · May 4, 2021

An excellent review essay from Frank Hoffman. He identifies some key questions missing from book:

“Imbrie’s questions are not a complete set. In particular, he overlooks the role of American values at home and in the world it can and must engage with. Should America be merely an exemplar or exporting enforcer of its basic ideals? Walter McDougall's Promised Land, Crusader State exemplifies this choice, and argues for setting an example here at home.[10] The question Imbrie and readers should add is “How active should the U. S. be in shaping a liberal order beyond its own shores, to extend a liberal hegemony?”[11] Should the U. S. actively oppose illiberal societies or merely set an example, a shining beacon and a City on a Hill? Should U.S. leaders tend to their own unruly garden at home, or trim back what Robert Kagan called the unruly jungle?[12] Should it retrench and wait for the swarm of foreign rivals to gather, or sit complacently at home?”

 

11. Opinion | Biden’s Taiwan Policy Is Truly, Deeply Reckless

The New York Times · by Peter Beinart · May 5, 2021

As the headline says Mr. Beinart offers a scathing critique of the administration and Taiwan.

Excerpts: “It’s reckless because deterrence requires power and will, and when it comes to Taiwan, the United States is deficient in both. According to Fareed Zakaria, “The Pentagon has reportedly enacted 18 war games against China over Taiwan, and China has prevailed in every one.”

...

There’s another reason deterrence alone won’t work: China cares more. In 2017, mainland Chinese said that Taiwan topped their list of “concerns about the U.S.-China relationship.” Among Americans, by contrast, Taiwan didn’t make the top seven.

...

What’s crucial is that the Taiwanese people preserve their individual freedom and the planet does not endure a third world war. The best way for the United States to pursue those goals is by maintaining America’s military support for Taiwan while also maintaining the “one China” framework that for more than four decades has helped keep the peace in one of the most dangerous places on earth.

 

Hawks will call this appeasement. So be it. Ask them how many American lives they’re willing to risk so the United States can have official diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

 

12. Any reduction in Energy Department's cybersecurity resources a mistake

The Hill · by  Mark Montgomery · May 4, 2021

Excerpt: “As the senators wrote, “[t]he reliability and resilience of the electric grid is critical to the economic and national security of the United States.”

Unless DOE continues to prioritize cybersecurity risks to our electric grid, the plans it had drawn out so far will be of little to no use. An assistant secretary level leader, with a properly resourced office has been, and will continue to be, key to this success. Hopefully, to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of a reduction in seniority of the CESER billet are greatly exaggerated. But if not, any such reduction would be a critical error at a critical time.

 

13. Eddie Gallagher now says SEALs intended to kill unarmed fighter and ‘nobody had a problem with it’

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · May 4, 2021

I have no words for this man and his actions.

 

14.  Opinion: China's New Silk Road is full of potholes

DW · by Deutsche Welle  

An interesting German perspective.

 

15. China does not want war, at least not yet. It’s playing the long game

theconversation.com · by John Blaxland

We all must play the long game. The question is can we?

 

16. As U.S. warns of invasion, Taiwan fears quieter Chinese threat

NBC News · by Louise Watt · May 5, 2021

Subversion. A key line of effort in unconventional warfare.

 

----------------

 

“We are called the nation of inventors. And we are. We could still claim that title and wear its loftiest honors if we had stopped with the first thing we ever invented, which was human liberty.”

- Mark Twain

 

“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”

- President John F. Kennedy

 

"The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults."

- Alexis de Tocqueville

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Chinese ambassador tells U.S., North Korea not to make tensions with each other worse

2. Commander General LaCamera nominated for next USFK commander

3. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis receives Paik Sun-yup award

4. N. Korea continues to build up chemical, biological weapons: US official

5. N. Korea may give up nukes, but will test U.S. commitment to diplomacy: U.S. experts

6. The rollout of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review leaves unanswered questions

7. They Were Promised a Socialist Paradise, and Ended Up in ‘Hell’

8. (2nd LD) Top diplomats of S. Korea, Japan agree on 'future-oriented' ties, differ on historical issues

9. Inside the real North Korea: Wife of British diplomat reveals human side of life under Kim Jong-un

10.  North Korea may mount military provocations over South Korea-US summit: Korea Herald

11. Japan, S.Korea meet with Blinken despite rifts

12. Biden’s tentative steps towards North Korea’s Kim greeted with scepticism

13. South Korea’s diplomatic balancing act with Russia

14. Trump may have cleared Biden's path to check NKorea

15. North Korea faces economic ruin amid food and medicine shortages

 

1. Chinese ambassador tells U.S., North Korea not to make tensions with each other worse

Newsweek · by Lauren Giella · May 4, 2021

The US and north Korea get a dressing down from the Chinese ambassador. Of course the Chinese prescription for reducing tensions is for the US to lift sanctions.

 

2.  Commander General LaCamera nominated for next USFK commander

koreanjoongangdaily · by Michael Lee

I still have not seen an official announcement from the US side but our Korean counterparts keep a close watch on issues like this.

Close here but as usual the press misses an opportunity to more accurately explain the command relationships.

A bilateral agreement signed between South Korea and the United States in 1978 also gives the USFK commander operational control of allied forces on the peninsula in wartime — a combined force that includes South Korea’s approximately 600,000 active duty troops as well as the 28,500-strong USFK.

What the reporter should have added is that the ROK/US Combined Forces Command is a bilateral command , NOT a US command, that serves the security interests of both the ROK and US and answers equally to the national command and military authorities of both countries through the Military Committee. By agreement and tradition, the commander of the ROK/US CFC has always been a US general officer but that will change when the OPCON transition process is complete.

The ROK press also makes a big deal out of USFK and often incorrectly describes USFK as controlling ROK forces in the Combined Forces COmmand (the Joongang Ilbo did not do that here).  But it is interesting the ROK focuses on the command that is the least important when it comes to deterrence and defense.  USFK is a subunified command under the combatant command of USINDOPACOM. It is not a warfighting command and is a forces provider to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command which has warfighting responsibility for both the ROK and US.  It answers to the Military Committee which consists of representatives of both country's national command and military authorities.  And then there is the UN Command which is an international command that will provide coalition forces to the ROK/US CFC in wartime and will retain responsibility for managing the Armistice to prevent a resumption of hostilities.  The UNC answers to the US CJCS because the UN Security Council Resolutions that established the command in 1950 designated the US as the executive agent for the command.

 

3. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Mattis receives Paik Sun-yup award

koreanjoongangdaily · by Park Hyun-Young and Sarah Kim

A great honor for General Mattis.

 

4. N. Korea continues to build up chemical, biological weapons: US official

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · May 5, 2021

No surprise but it is important that US officials state this.

Excerpts: “Jennifer Walsh, principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security, also said North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may actually use such weapons in case of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.

 

"North Korea's continued pursuit of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons jeopardizes international stability and weakens the global nonproliferation regime. These capabilities pose a threat to US forces, allies," said Walsh in a statement submitted to the House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations.

"Given the risk that Kim Jong Un could seek to employ WMD in the course of or to stave off a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, the Joint Force must be ready for any number of WMD-related contingencies that require operating in a CBRN contaminated environment," she added.

 

5. N. Korea may give up nukes, but will test U.S. commitment to diplomacy: U.S. experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 5, 2021

The $64,000 question is what are the real security guarantees that would allow Kim to give up his weapons?  What are their terms?

Excerpt: "I do believe North Korea is committed to complete, verifiable denuclearization, assuming they get the security assurances they want and certainly they need because they're concerned about regime change, and they realize nuclear weapons, indeed, are a deterrent," Joseph DeTrani said in a webinar hosted by the Washington Times Foundation."

My fear is the regime will use "security guarantees" to end the ROK/US alliance and get US forces off the peninsula so that it can achieve its objectives to dominate the peninsula and ensure regime survival.  The regime is conducting political warfare, executing a long con, and using blackmail diplomacy tactics to achieve its strategic aims.  

Sasha Mansourov thinks we are going to see a provocation: “Alexandre Mansourov, professor of security studies at Georgetown University, argued Pyongyang will likely stick to its traditional way of dealing with a new U.S. administration -- first by provoking to see how serious the new U.S. government is.

"North Koreans are likely to test how seriously the United States is really committed to diplomacy because they've seen this game many times before. They played this game with us many times before," he said in the virtual seminar.

"And so in my opinion they may actually launch ... maybe a satellite, will conduct a submarine based ICBM test sometime around May 21 Biden-Moon Summit, just to see whether the Biden administration will abandon diplomacy," he added, referring to Biden's upcoming summit in Washington with his South Korean counterpart, Moon Jae-in.

 

6. The rollout of the Biden administration’s North Korea policy review leaves unanswered questions

The Brookings Institution · by Robert Einhorn · May 4, 2021

We still do not have the details of the new policy (and I hope we do not see the classified policy and strategy because we need to be executing a superior form of political warfare to effectively deal with north Korea and this must be classified).

 

But  Robert Einhorn identifies some key points: “The Biden administration seems prepared to associate itself with some elements of its predecessors’ North Korea policies, including the joint statement adopted by President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at their Singapore summit meeting in June 2018. The Washington Post quoted a second U.S. official as saying the administration would build on the Singapore agreement and other previous agreements.

...

Other than maintaining that it will avoid the mistakes of its predecessors, issuing some expected reaffirmations (the goal of denuclearization), and providing some interesting tidbits (support for the Singapore framework), the Biden administration has so far relied mainly on generalities in publicly outlining the results of its review of North Korea policy, using language like “calibrated, practical, measured approach” and similar formulations intended to be reassuring and unassailable.

...

So, much is still publicly unknown about the Biden administration’s North Korea policy. Indeed, much is still probably undecided within the administration. The following critical questions remain unaddressed so far by the public rollout of the Biden policy.”

 

7. They Were Promised a Socialist Paradise, and Ended Up in ‘Hell’

The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · May 5, 2021

The cruelest bait and switch.

Excerpts: “Mr. Lee was born in Japan in 1952. The family ran a charcoal-grill restaurant in Shimonoseki, the port closest to Korea — a reminder that they would return home.

As the Korean War came to an end, the Japanese government was eager to get rid of the throngs of Koreans living in slums. For its part, hoping to use them to help rebuild its war-torn economy, North Korea launched a propaganda blitz, touting itself as a “paradise” with jobs for everyone, free education and medical services.

Mr. Lee's primary school in Japan, he said, screened propaganda newsreels from North Korea showing bumper crops and workers building “a house every 10 minutes.” Marches were organized calling for repatriation. A pro-North Korea group in Japan even encouraged students to be recruited as “birthday gifts” for Kim Il-sung, the country’s founder, according to a recent report from the Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights.

Japan approved of the migration despite the fact that most Koreans in the country were from the South, which was mired in political unrest. While Japanese authorities said ethnic Koreans chose to relocate to North Korea, human rights groups have accused the country of aiding and abetting the deception by ignoring the circumstances the migrants would face in the communist country.

“By leaving for North Korea, ethnic Koreans were forced to sign an exit-only document that prohibited them from returning to Japan,” the Citizens’ Alliance report said. The authors likened the migration to a “slave trade” and “forced displacement.”

 

8. (2nd LD) Top diplomats of S. Korea, Japan agree on 'future-oriented' ties, differ on historical issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · May 5, 2021

Please focus on national security and national prosperity as the priority while managing the difficult historical issues.

 

9. Inside the real North Korea: Wife of British diplomat reveals human side of life under Kim Jong-un

The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith

Will this be a "coffee table book" that I will purchase?  The hard cover is $25.95 at Amazon and is due out in June.

The anecdote features in her new book, North Korea – Like Nowhere Else, a rare photo exploration of the reclusive state, which is due to be released on Thursday.

 

10. North Korea may mount military provocations over South Korea-US summit: Korea Herald

The Strait Times

Of course they could.  But will they?  For what effects and objectives?

 

11. Japan, S.Korea meet with Blinken despite rifts

news.yahoo.com

Excerpts: “The Biden administration conducted a North Korea policy review "in a deliberate way because we wanted to make sure that we were very actively consulting with all of the concerned countries, starting with our close allies South Korea and Japan, given their own very strong equities in this issue," Blinken said Monday.

The two Asian nations are both treaty-bound allies of the United States but have long had friction due to the legacy of Japan's harsh colonial rule over the Korean peninsula.

South Korea last month voiced "deep disappointment" after Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga sent an offering to the Yasukuni shrine, which venerates war dead including convicted war criminals, although leaders in Tokyo have in recent years refrained from the more explosive step of visiting.

Relations deteriorated sharply in 2019, with South Korea pulling back at the last minute from terminating an agreement on sharing intelligence with Japan on North Korea.

 

12. Biden’s tentative steps towards North Korea’s Kim greeted with scepticism

Financial Times · by Edward White · May 5, 2021

Excerpts: “Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst who briefed presidents George W Bush and Barack Obama on North Korea, believed Biden’s policy was being designed as a “holding action, not a breakthrough”.

“The administration is not hyping its proposal. It realises that it’s unlikely to ‘solve’ the North Korean problem; it likely seeks to keep North Korea quiet so it can concentrate on more pressing priorities elsewhere that are solvable,” she said.

...

Soo Kim, a former CIA North Korea analyst now at the think-tank Rand Corporation, expected the Kim regime to resume military provocations. “There is little holding Pyongyang back from brinkmanship,” she said.

...

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a North Korea expert at King’s College London, noted several “positive signals”, including Kim’s adherence to a de facto moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile tests since his summit with Trump in Singapore in 2018.Preparatory work was also under way for potential “track two” talks: back-channel discussions involving North Korean diplomats and foreign non-government experts, people familiar with the discussions said.

“They have certainly left the door open,” said Glyn Ford, a former member of the European parliament with close connections to high-ranking North Korean officials. “Quite how far open the door is, I’m unclear.”

 

13. South Korea’s diplomatic balancing act with Russia

eastasiaforum.org · by Anthony Rinna · May 5, 2021

Russia can be a spoiler in Northeast Asia.

Excerpts: “Given that Russia has a strong interest in pursuing collaborative economic projects involving both North and South Korea, particularly under South Korea’s New Northern Policy, the biggest challenge Seoul faces regarding Russia–US tensions will be responding to Russian diplomatic overtures that involve projects and initiatives that run counter to the current sanctions regime.

Senior Russian officials, for their part, express doubt that the United States would be favourable toward South Korea engaging in trilateral cooperation with North Korea and Russia. As South Korea gears up for presidential elections in 2022, it remains to be seen whether Moon Jae-in’s successor will maintain the New Northern Policy, launch a new analogous project, or abandon prospects of such trilateral cooperation altogether.

If Seoul maintains that Russia can play a helpful role in the Korean peace process through economic collaboration, then Russia’s opposition to sanctions — and the United States’ insistence on maintaining them — will elevate tensions within South Korea’s own foreign policy decision-making. This may not be nearly as pressing an issue as Seoul’s increasingly untenable ‘strategic ambiguity’ between China and the United States, but it is an issue that South Korea will likely be forced to contend with.

 

14. Trump may have cleared Biden's path to check NKorea

washingtontimes.com · by Ben Wolfgang

But we are likely to see neither a return to "strategic patience" nor the employment of "unconventional, experimental, top down, pen pal diplomacy."  The question is how will the difference be split?

 

15. North Korea faces economic ruin amid food and medicine shortages

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · May 5, 2021

It could be  worse than the 1990'a Arduous March.  But while there are external conditions, e.g., COVID, natural disasters, and sanctions, it is really the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un that are the problem and what will bring ruin to the north.

 

----------------

 

“We are called the nation of inventors. And we are. We could still claim that title and wear its loftiest honors if we had stopped with the first thing we ever invented, which was human liberty.”

- Mark Twain

 

“Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.”

- President John F. Kennedy

 

"The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults."

- Alexis de Tocqueville

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Day 1 of the End of the U.S. War in Afghanistan

2. Who should lead the Pentagon’s information operations efforts?

3. Pentagon whistleblower warns UFO intelligence could rival 9/11

4. U.S. 'far left' susceptible to Chinese government's COVID disinformation: Report

5. Biden team may partner with private firms to monitor extremist chatter online

6. In a Reversal, Nigeria Wants U.S. Africa Command Headquarters in Africa

7. Abandoning Taiwan Makes Zero Moral or Strategic Sense

8. The Fallacy of Presence

9. Austin's task force is toughest move yet on China as Biden Pentagon mulls options

10. Bin Laden Raid Pilot Says Unique Marine Air-To-Air Course Likely Saved Him From Pakistani F-16s

11. ‘It’s an act of war’: Trump’s acting Pentagon chief urges Biden to tackle directed-energy attacks

12. Special Forces human performance facility construction underway at Fort Bragg

13. Why the United States Needs an Independent Cyber Force

14. Back to the Future: Getting Special Forces Ready for Great-Power Competition

15. Manhunting the Manhunters: Digital Signature Management in the Age of Great Power Competition

16. A Cold War, fought with information and espionage

17. Opinion | Here’s What Biden Must Do Before We Leave Afghanistan By Michael McCaul and Ryan C. Crocker

18. Joint exercise of US forces in Alaska mimics ‘what future conflict could feel like’

19. Japan offers official development assistance to Philippine military

20. Locsin says sorry to Chinese envoy over expletives; Palace says to leave swearing to Duterte

21. FDD | Is Beijing Planning a Rob, Replicate, Replace Olympics?

22. China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte’s Best Efforts

23. Why America’s Trillion-Dollar War on Terrorism Couldn’t Defeat Boko Haram

 

1. Day 1 of the End of the U.S. War in Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · May 3, 2021

TM Gibbons-Neff will probably end up taking us through the entire withdrawal process and chronicling the entire event. His writing will serve as the initial history of the withdrawal process. And I expect after US forces withdraw he will remain to document what comes next until it is no longer safe for him to remain in Afghanistan. I imagine it is challenging for him as a former Marine who served and fought in Afghanistan.

I expect this kind of reporting will be award winning:  “When asked about Maiwand, a district only about 50 miles away where Afghan forces were trying to fend off a Taliban offensive and Major Zahid was desperately trying to send air support, a U.S. soldier responded, “Who’s Maiwand?”

In the evening, the base loudspeaker chimed as one of the transport planes departed. “Attention,” someone out of view said. “There will be outgoing for the next 15 minutes.” The dull thud of mortar fire began. At what was unclear.

The end of the war looked nothing like the beginning of it. What started as an operation to topple the Taliban and kill the terrorists responsible for the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, had swelled over 20 years into a multitrillion-dollar military-industrial undertaking, infused with so much money that for years it seemed impossible to ever conclude or dismantle.

Until now.

The Taliban’s often-repeated adage loomed over the day: “You have the watches, we have the time.”

In one of the many trash bags littering the base, there was a discarded wall clock, its second hand still ticking.”

 

2. Who should lead the Pentagon’s information operations efforts?

Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · May 3, 2021

It should not be OSD(P) or ASD SO/LIC leading DOD information operations. Both should exercise their roles of appropriate civilian oversight. We need a dedicated professionally staffed agency or organization (not a staff function) to actually lead DOD information warfare activities.

But this excerpt really makes me want to cry.

“If cyber as a domain is in its adolescence, then information is surely in its infancy,” he said.

 

How could information and influence be in its infancy? What an indictment of the nearly century of various attempts at information and influence operations and the dreaded words that are not used in the article at all -psychological warfare and psychological operations -  since they have been replaced by military information support operations.

 

3. Pentagon whistleblower warns UFO intelligence could rival 9/11

Daily Mail · by Bevan Hurley · May 3, 2021

Wow. It is not a conspiracy theory if it really happened as they say.

 

4. U.S. 'far left' susceptible to Chinese government's COVID disinformation: Report

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

I assume this is the RAND report referenced in the article: Superspreaders of Malign and Subversive Information on COVID-19 Russian and Chinese Efforts Targeting the United States 

Excerpts: “The RAND report, meanwhile, analyzed nuanced differences in Russian and Chinese disinformation campaigns, as well as audience susceptibility to both.

“China-linked messaging was more uniform across different outlets; this suggests that operators did not attempt to target specific polarized audiences or to purposefully appeal to a wide variety of audiences in the United States,” the report said. “However, during the time frame that we analyzed (January 2020 to July 2020), messages critical of the U.S. response to the pandemic might have resonated with critics of the Trump administration, those on the left of the U.S. political spectrum, and those concerned with the federal pandemic response.”

“It is also possible that some of the messages about the origins of the virus could be attractive to conspiracy theory enthusiasts with different political views and affiliations,” the report added. “Overall, China-linked messaging could be of interest to U.S. audiences on the farther left of the political spectrum — Trump administration critics, conspiracy enthusiasts, and capitalism skeptics among them.”

 

5. Biden team may partner with private firms to monitor extremist chatter online

CNN · by Zachary Cohen and Katie Bo Williams

This could very well be the biggest mistake this administration makes. This could play right into the narrative of the extremist organizations and could lead to further recruitment and radicalization.

 

6. In a Reversal, Nigeria Wants U.S. Africa Command Headquarters in Africa

cfr.org · by John Campbell

This is quite a statement, proposal, or request.

 

7. Abandoning Taiwan Makes Zero Moral or Strategic Sense

Foreign Policy · by Blake Herzinger · May 3, 2021

A critique of Charles Glaser's recent essay on abandoning Taiwan. 

Excerpts: “Apart from the logical flaws in his argument, Glaser seems untroubled by condemning 23 million free people to living beneath Beijing’s boot—to say nothing of the death and destruction that would be rained on Taiwan in an invasion. Somewhere along the line, some within the realist school appear to have lost their way. Too often, realism seems to just mean risk aversion and ends in calls for appeasement.

It is entirely appropriate for the U.S. government as well as the U.S. body politic to discuss and debate the future of the United States’ relationship with Taiwan, but it demands more than flimsy and error-ridden arguments when millions of lives lie in the balance. The risk of war is a terrible one, and Glaser is right to hope to avoid it, but retrenchment in the face of Chinese revisionism is not a convincing solution to the problem.

The same policies playing out in Xinjiang and Hong Kong—brutal repression, crushing dissent, reeducation camps—would be on full display in Taiwan, but the fact the United States’ long-term partners would be violently subjugated to a totalitarian government seems to be wholly outside the frame of Glaser’s concern. Realism is not an excuse for callousness. Imperfect as it may be, the United States presents itself as a state that stands for certain values, and leaving a democratic government and a free nation to be ground to dust while it looks on is not among them.

 

8. The Fallacy of Presence

usni.org · May 1, 2021

Presence, patience, and persistence. Presence for purpose. But I think the Chief is exactly right - presence without the proper authorities for action is rarely a deterrence. And this applies to more than fishing!

Illegal, unreported, unregulated (IUU) fishing enforcement.

Gulf of Maine (GOM) Gray Zone.

Conclusion: “Unfortunately, for IUU fishing, the current legal framework is unsupportive of substantive enforcement action. In Advantage at Sea, the leaders of the Sea Services state, “the boldness of our actions must match the magnitude of our moment. The security of our nation depends on our ability to maintain advantage at sea.”17 Such an advantage will not be achieved or maintained by presence alone. Without substantive action, Canadians will continue to fish the GOM Gray Zone. China will continue to use its fishing fleets to gradually assert control over contested areas, all the while threatening the sustainability of fish stocks in the EEZs of developing nations throughout the world. Global competition for fish will increase and devolve into violence as fisheries collapse and the protein they provide becomes increasingly scare. The “firm and persuasive operations to confront malign behavior” cannot be mere presence and must instead translate into legislation that enacts criminal laws with extraterritorial applications and strategies and policies that enable and even encourage U.S. forces to seize, burn, and sink wherever warranted.

 

9. Austin's task force is toughest move yet on China as Biden Pentagon mulls options

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · May 3, 2021

Excerpts: “The China Task Force is the most clear manifestation of how seriously he's taking China as a pacing challenge,” Kirby said, noting its conclusions are due by mid-June. “They're continuing to do their work.”

In a departure from his usual reticence to delve into spending priorities, the spokesman also indicated the coming defense budget would put money behind the effort.

“We're getting ready to unveil the president's budget for DOD, that will come in in due time,” Kirby said. “I think you'll see this larger concern about great power competition and our focus on that part of the world reflected in budget priorities.”

Kirby also sought to underscore that Austin’s first foreign trip was to visit Indo-Pacific allies and partners, including South Korea, Japan, and India.

“To listen to them about what they're seeing in the region and the threats from their eyes,” he said. “ And to listen to them about their concerns about China's increasingly aggressive and coercive behavior.”

 

10. Bin Laden Raid Pilot Says Unique Marine Air-To-Air Course Likely Saved Him From Pakistani F-16s

thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway and Jamie Hunter · May 3, 2021

Another fascinating story which really is another indication of why we need joint forces and joint training.

 

11. ‘It’s an act of war’: Trump’s acting Pentagon chief urges Biden to tackle directed-energy attacks

Politico · May 3, 2021

I hope we can get this sorted out soon before any more Americans are attacked and hurt.

Excerpts: “A House Intelligence Committee spokesperson said on Friday that the panel has been “working quietly and persistently behind closed doors on this critical issue since the first reports,” vowing to “follow the evidence wherever it may lead and ensure anyone responsible is held to account.”

Doctors and scientists say the Havana attacks, which started in 2016, may have been caused by microwave weapons, which use a form of electromagnetic radiation to damage targets. While U.S. officials have not publicly blamed Russia for the events, Moscow is known to have worked on microwave weapons technology.

Simone Ledeen, a former Pentagon official overseeing Middle East policy under Trump who worked on directed-energy attacks in a previous position at DoD, also called on the new administration to continue looking into the incidents.

“This was one of the missions that absolutely needed to continue,” Ledeen said. “I hope the new team picks this up — it is actually very important as Americans are clearly being targeted.”

 

12. Special Forces human performance facility construction underway at Fort Bragg

americanmilitarynews.com · by Rachael Riley · May 4, 2021

 

13. Why the United States Needs an Independent Cyber Force

warontherocks.com · by David Barno · May 4, 2021

Conclusion: “We have called for an independent U.S. Cyber Force before, but the ever-increasing reliance on the cyber domain and the stunning nature of recent cyber attacks now make this even more urgent. The cyber domain is unprecedented in the history of warfare, since it does not require physical weaponry or geographic proximity to effectively attack and disrupt today’s U.S. military (and American society more broadly). The existing services are far too invested in preparing for warfare in their respective domains to think creatively and independently about ways to address this entirely new type of threat. Creating a new U.S. Cyber Force would help ensure that the vital oxygen upon which the U.S. military depends is always available in every future military operation.”

 

14. Back to the Future: Getting Special Forces Ready for Great-Power Competition

warontherocks.com · by Barnett S. Koven · May 4, 2021

Pretty comprehensive proposals and recommendations for Special Forces focusing heavily on language.

 

15.  Manhunting the Manhunters: Digital Signature Management in the Age of Great Power Competition

mwi.usma.edu · by Chris Cruden · May 3, 2021

It is a brave new world. Yes SOF must recognize the threats within the digital environment.

Excerpts: “Persistent digital situational awareness is a double-edged sword. Collection and analysis of such data creates a digital unblinking eye that can provide key, targetable insights into adversary operations, personnel, and force movements. But when our adversaries turn their own unblinking eyes in the direction of US SOF’s past, current, and future activities, these SOF organizations lose operational and technological advantages.

US SOF must recognize the realities of the digital threat environment, how current SOF operational profiles fit within it, and what continuing the status quo will mean for future operations against near-peer adversaries. Above all, SOF must understand that failure to take corrective, protective, and proactive actions to manage their digital signatures will result in operational compromise, mission failure, and strategic loss in this new era of great power competition.

 

16. A Cold War, fought with information and espionage

carryingthegun.com · by DG · May 4, 2021

This is a very accurate assessment I think: "As we move further and further into this new thing – great power competition – I’m struck by how much more difficult this is going to be than anything we’ve done before."

 

17. Opinion | Here’s What Biden Must Do Before We Leave Afghanistan By Michael McCaul and Ryan C. Crocker

The New York Times · by Michael McCaul and Ryan C. Crocker · May 4, 2021

Excerpts: “These are vital issues Mr. Biden and his team must address — before we pull out on Sept. 11.

Yet so far they have offered no clarity on what counterterrorism agreements, if any, have been reached with other countries. They have provided only minimal assurances for how they will secure the safety of our embassy and personnel. They appear to have no plans for protecting Afghan women. And they have announced no strategy to address the visa backlog that could endanger thousands of our Afghan partners’ lives.

When America pulls out of a conflict zone at the wrong time, it creates a vacuum in which the terrorist threat grows again. That, in turn, eventually requires a re-entry of forces to keep Americans safe. So begins yet another forever war.

The ill-advised decision to pull out of Afghanistan may do just that. But by ensuring proper guardrails are in place, we have a chance to limit the fallout.”

 

18. Joint exercise of US forces in Alaska mimics ‘what future conflict could feel like’

Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olson · May 4, 2021

 

19. Japan offers official development assistance to Philippine military

news.abs-cbn.com · by Kyodo News

A first time security assistance effort by Japan. This could be significant though there are no weapons involved in this, only "lifesaving" equipment. Small steps.

But this is significant: "After the delivery is completed, Ground Self-Defense Force personnel will be sent to train units of the Philippine forces in their use, the ministry said."

 

20. Locsin says sorry to Chinese envoy over expletives; Palace says to leave swearing to Duterte

globalnation.inquirer.net · by Daphne Galvez · May 4, 2021

Wow. I wonder if there is a president decision directive outlining this "policy."

Excerpt: (We reiterate the President’s message that curse words have no place in diplomacy… President Duterte told members of his Cabinet that he is the only one who can use curse words. His Cabinet members should not imitate him.)

 

21. FDD | Is Beijing Planning a Rob, Replicate, Replace Olympics?

fdd.org · by Cleo Paskal · May 2, 2021

Conclusion: "If someone truly cares about all the effort, time and sacrifice athletes from all over the world devoted to making it to the Olympics, they would find a venue for them to compete where the hosts aren’t just waiting for a chance to rob, replicate and replace them—and ultimately use all that hard work to dominate them, and their nations."

 

22. China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte’s Best Efforts

Foreign Policy · by Derek Grossman · May 3, 2021

Conclusion: "To be sure, Duterte’s own instincts, high approval ratings, and lame-duck status probably mean he won’t plan a wholesale embrace of the United States. On the contrary, he is very unlikely to stop criticizing the United States because he remains, at his core, anti-U.S. That said, China has left Duterte little choice but to keep inching closer to Washington. To that end, it is likely the United States and the Philippines will reach an agreement on the new VFA soon. Atmospherics aside, Duterte is becoming less of a headache for Washington and more of one for Beijing—and that is a good thing for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific."

 

---------------

 

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore, Dream, Discover." 

- Mark Twain

 

"Mastering others is strength. Mastering yourself makes you fearless." 

- Lao Tzu

 

 “You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You are able to say to yourself, 'I have lived through this horror. I can take the next thing that comes along.' You must do the thing you think you cannot do.” 

- Eleanor Roosevelt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung - United States Department of State

2.  Blinken urges N. Korea to engage, saying U.S. seeks practical progress

3. Biden Administration Gives Indication of North Korea Policy, but Questions Remain

4. Kim launches preemptive strike on Biden-Moon meet

5. Biden Wants a Pragmatic Approach Towards North Korea. Why Not Leave Korea Altogether?

6. Blinken urges North Korea to embrace diplomacy after consulting allies

7. N.K. paper says coronavirus vaccines 'far from a panacea' amid delay in securing supplies

8. North Korea: Keeping Its Powder Dry

9. Pyongyang’s Seoul-bashing over publication of Kim Il Sung memoir

10. Blinken tries to engage Pyongyang from London

11. US falls short of persuading North Korea to dialogue: experts

12. Analysis: Diplomatic dance or standoff? N.Korea and U.S. tread cautious line

13. N.Korea 'Likely to Test Nuclear Weapon or ICBM This Year'

14. Head of Mangyongdae Revolutionary School demoted for failing to prevent suspected COVID-19 outbreak

15. The Latest: NKorea warns people to brace for virus struggle

16. US Calls on North Korea to 'Engage Diplomatically’

17. South Korea’s ruling party elects hardliner on Japan issues

 

1. Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung - United States Department of State

state.gov · by Office of the Spokesperson  · May 3, 2021

 

2. Blinken urges N. Korea to engage, saying U.S. seeks practical progress

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · May 4, 2021

My assessment: Secretary Blinken explains the US seeks dialogue through practical and principled diplomacy and is providing Kim Jong-un the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community and negotiate in good faith to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. 

We only have an announcement that the policy review is complete and some supporting talking points from the White House spokesperson and POTUS' statement during the Congressional address. There are other indications of the new US policy in the March Quad Statement, the 2+2 statements from Tokyo and Seoul, and the joint statement from the three national security advisors of the ROK, Japan, and the US. However, no significant details of the policy have been released. My assessment of the anticipated policy is here:

My sense is the Biden administration is basing their new policy on a deep (and realistic) understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. However, it will still be a compromise policy taking into account many of the diverse views of both US internal differences and those of our allies (a tough thing to do). The greatest friction will be within the ROK US alliance and the conflict between Moon's peace agenda, desire to offer concessions (and demand sanctions relief for the north) to support north-South engagement, and the north's appeasement of the regime (e.g., the anti-leaflet law in direct response to Kim Yo-jong's threats). The US and the ROK have different views of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the regime. Kim Jong-un will seek to exploit these differences with his "divide to conquer line of effort - e.g., divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.

But.....I hope there will be a publicly discussed overt policy (that is based on principled (and practical) diplomacy (which means a phased approach and "action for action"), a human rights upfront approach, deterrence and defense and full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions) and that it supports a classified superior political warfare strategy to counter the regime's political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.

I expect the heart of the policy to be based on full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions. This is because they are fairly comprehensive and because of the Biden administration's foreign policy aim to properly use international institutions. Most importantly, the UN Security Council Resolutions are what the world demands and not just the US.

Regarding north Korean remarks on POTUS remarks in address to congress, announcement of completion of the policy review, and US statement on north Korean human rights abuses: The US should not be pressured by north Korea statements and over the top rhetoric. This is business as usual for the north. It is clear that all the regime knows is blackmail diplomacy - the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. The US (and the ROK) should be exposing the strategy and tactics of the north and not make decisions based on north Korean rhetoric (though it must take the rhetoric seriously and must thoroughly analyze it for the messages the regime is trying to send).

Kim Jong-un is clearly trying to make the new Biden Korean policy dead on arrival, or he is trying to establish the conditions to demand sanctions relief in return for a promise of talks. The US seeks talks but will not be coerced or extorted by the north. However, POTUS does not have the authority to unilaterally lift sanctions - it will require agreement at the UN Security Congress to lift UN sanctions and the US Congress to lift congressional imposed sanctions. Most important POTUS must not lift sanctions otherwise Kim Jong-un will assess that his political warfare strategy, his long con, and his blackmail diplomacy tactics are successful and rather than negotiating in good faith he will double down and seek more concessions.

 

3. Biden Administration Gives Indication of North Korea Policy, but Questions Remain

dailysignal.com · by Bruce Klingner · May 3, 2021

Good analysis from Bruce. There is still more that we need to know to understand the full scope of the policy.

 

4. Kim launches preemptive strike on Biden-Moon meet

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · May 3, 2021

Again, Kim is using his blackmail diplomacy tactics to set the conditions to extract concessions from the US and international community in return for a promise of conducting diplomacy in the future.

 

5. Biden Wants a Pragmatic Approach Towards North Korea. Why Not Leave Korea Altogether?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · May 3, 2021

The fastest way to bring war to the Korean peninsula is to follow Mr. Bandow's advice.

 

6. Blinken urges North Korea to embrace diplomacy after consulting allies

24matins.uk · May 3, 2021

As I said: Secretary Blinken explains the US seeks dialogue through practical and principled diplomacy and is providing Kim Jong-un the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community and negotiate in good faith to ensure peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. The onus is on Kim Jong-un to come to the table.

Blinken urges North Korea to embrace diplomacy after consulting allies

 

7.  N.K. paper says coronavirus vaccines 'far from a panacea' amid delay in securing supplies

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 4, 2021

The Propaganda and Agitation Department covering the failures by the Kim family regime.

And I am sure when they do procure vaccines they will spin it that Kim Jong-un is responsible for their discovery and development and that he has (again) saved the Korean people in the north.

 

8. North Korea: Keeping Its Powder Dry

38north.org · by 38 North · May 3, 2021

Attempting to set conditions for future demands and actions in my opinion.

 

What is missing from the analysis below is no mention of the regime's reactions to the US statements on north Korean human rights. The regime has reacted strongly to the statement because it undermines regime legitimacy and is a threat to the regime. We need to examine the full scope of north Korean statements to better understand the nature of the regime.

 

9. Pyongyang’s Seoul-bashing over publication of Kim Il Sung memoir

donga.com  · May 4, 2021

Another of north Korea's propaganda lines of effort.

But what is interesting is how the Propaganda and Agitation Department turns democratic principles against the South to further the north's agenda.

 

10. Blinken tries to engage Pyongyang from London

Koreanjoongangdaily · by Sarah Kim · May 4, 2021

The question is will Kim Jong-un act and negotiate like a responsible member of the international community or will he continue to execute this long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy tactics? 

 

11.  US falls short of persuading North Korea to dialogue: experts

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · May 4, 2021

Wow. It seems like some pundits are in full support of Kim Jong-un's objective to make the new Biden Korea policy dead on arrival.

But we have really only heard the policy review is complete and we have heard some talking points. Do we really expect that to "persuade" north Korea? How about allowing some diplomacy to be attempted before we jump to conclusions.

 

12. Analysis: Diplomatic dance or standoff? N.Korea and U.S. tread cautious line

Reuters

The diplomatic dance has only just begun.

 

13. N.Korea 'Likely to Test Nuclear Weapon or ICBM This Year'

english.chosun.com

At least I think that is what Kim wants us to believe. Fits right into his blackmail diplomacy tactics.

 

14. Head of Mangyongdae Revolutionary School demoted for failing to prevent suspected COVID-19 outbreak

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · May 4, 2021

So was there really an outbreak? Is this an admission? If not how can you be responsible for preventing a "suspected outbreak?" 

This really seems like it counters the continue regime reports of no COVID cases within north Korea:

Excerpts: “Mangyongdae Revolutionary School started preparations for its students to attend the Oct. 10, 2020 military parade in May of last year. In September, there was a surge in suspected cases of COVID-19 among some of the students, twelve of whom died. The twelve students reportedly had preexisting conditions and died after exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms such as high fevers, coughs, shortness of breath, diarrhea, and hemoptysis.

The school’s hospital attempted to escape blame for the deaths by claiming the students had become ill because the long hours they spent practicing for the upcoming military parade kept them from sleeping properly. The school claims that the students died from sepsis and alveolar shock, but those within the military believe they died from COVID-19.

News of the deaths was belatedly reported during the KPA Party Committee’s plenary meeting, where it was decided that Oh should be demoted for failing to prevent a major incident where the “children of fallen warriors were killed en masse.”

 

15.  The Latest: NKorea warns people to brace for virus struggle

Star Tribune · May 3, 2021

Perhaps the pandemic is hitting or about to breakout in the north. If an outbreak occurs it could be catastrophic. Are we ready for the possible contingencies?

 

16. US Calls on North Korea to 'Engage Diplomatically’

voanews.com · by Nike Ching · May 3, 2021

We need to emphasize the new policy is an offer to the north to negotiate as a responsible member of the international community. It is up to Kim Jong-un. But we are likely to see him continue his long con. political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy.

 

17. South Korea’s ruling party elects hardliner on Japan issues

asahi.com · by Takuya Suzuki · May 3, 2021

 

-------------

 

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do, so throw off the bowlines, sail away from safe harbor, catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore, Dream, Discover." 

- Mark Twain

 

"Mastering others is strength. Mastering yourself makes you fearless." 

- Lao Tzu

 

 “You gain strength, courage and confidence by every experience in which you really stop to look fear in the face. You are able to say to yourself, 'I have lived through this horror. I can take the next thing that comes along.' You must do the thing you think you cannot do.” 

- Eleanor Roosevelt

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

2. A wider war coming to Myanmar

3. Afghanistan Withdrawal Won't Be Like 'Fall of Saigon,' Deputy SecDef Says

4. China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’

5. US-led ‘psychological wars’ against Russia, China lead to all lose situation

6. Philippines foreign minister issues expletive-laced tweet over China sea dispute

7. China: Totalitarianism’s Long Shadow

8. Could China send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan?

9. China is Trying to Break up the Five Eyes Intelligence Network

10. Organizing for Large-Scale Maritime Combat Operations

11. Increase in rare-earth mining in Myanmar may be funding junta

12. Australia Is Reviewing China’s Ownership of a Darwin Port

13. S. Korea, China, Japan express concern over uneven economic revival in Asia

14. How a More Resilient America Beat a Midcentury Pandemic

15. From the Past, a Chilling Warning About the Extremists of the Present

16. No ‘Boogeyman’: Why the Bin Laden Raid Might be the Last Unifying Moment for US Foreign Policy

17. The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict

18. Opinion | Is America a Racist Country?

 

1. Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

The New York Times · by Apoorva Mandavilli · May 3, 2021

I guess if we do not reach herd immunity Darwin rules will prevail. There will be a culling of the human herd.

 

2. A wider war coming to Myanmar

asiatimes.com · by Bertil Lintner · May 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Even without a unified ethnic resistance, there is still a chance that the Tatmadaw’s old guard could move to break the stalemate by pressuring or even trying to overthrow Min Aung Hlaing and his top deputies before the situation deteriorates further.

The SLORC and SPDC were likewise brutal outfits and no friends of democracy, but former junta chief and commander-in-chief Senior General Than Shwe did initiate liberal reforms that led to a more open society and vastly improved relations with the West and wider world before stepping aside in 2010.

Than Shwe is now in his late 80s and political analysts in Myanmar believe that the current chaos is hardly the kind of legacy he would want to leave behind. Whether the aging general has the wherewithal, influence or inclination to try to rein in Min Aung Hlaing is unknown, but the anarchy unleashed by his coup is clearly not in the military establishment’s short or long-term interests.

 

3.  Afghanistan Withdrawal Won't Be Like 'Fall of Saigon,' Deputy SecDef Says

military.com · by Stephen Losey · April 30, 2021

 

4. China already ‘engaging in irregular war’ with US in the ‘grey zone’

news.com.au · by Jamie Seidel · May 2, 2021

We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches. 

Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to Political Warfare. Political warfare is how we should describe the competition space between peace and war and is the defining element in Great Power Competition. While state on state warfare is the most dangerous threat or course of action of GCP and why we must absolutely invest in deterrence and defense, Political War is the most likely threat or course of action.  

It is time for us to shift from the Clausewitzian “War is politics or policy by other means” and embrace our adversaries’ views: “Politics is war by other means” or as Mao said, “Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed.”

 

5. US-led ‘psychological wars’ against Russia, China lead to all lose situation

theedgemarkets.com · May 3, 2021

China doth protest too much. And it is guilty of mirror imaging or projecting. It is China who has the "three warfares:" psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media or public opinion warfare.

 

6. Philippines foreign minister issues expletive-laced tweet over China sea dispute

Reuters

This should spark the twitter war - perhaps it gives new meaning to better to jaw-jaw than war-war. I have never seen such a "diplomatic statement."  Perhaps twitter does bring out the worst in us.

The tweet: "China, my friend, how politely can I put it? Let me see… O…GET THE FUCK OUT," Locsin said in a tweet on his personal account."What are you doing to our friendship? You. Not us. We're trying. You. You're like an ugly oaf forcing your attentions on a handsome guy who wants to be a friend; not to father a Chinese province…", Locsin said.

 

7. China: Totalitarianism’s Long Shadow

journalofdemocracy.org · by Minxin Pei

Excerpts: “Given the self-destructive dynamics of neo-Stalinism and the strategic odds stacked against the Party, the future could see Xi’s nightmare realized as economic, political, and external conditions akin to those that plagued the late-stage Soviet regime begin to beset CCP rule.

By that time, China’s socioeconomic conditions will be even more favorable for a democratic breakthrough than they are today. Even if we [End Page 18] assume annual growth averaging 3 percent between now and 2035 (a very modest figure by PRC standards), that will yield a per capita GDP exceeding $25,000 a year in Purchasing Power Parity terms. Meanwhile, another hundred-million people will have graduated from college, raising the share of the populace with a postsecondary degree to just over a fifth.

Will this bring a decisive political mobilization against one-party rule by 2035? No one can say, but with a per capita income which will be equal to that of Chile today and about three-hundred million college-educated citizens, Chinese society will by then be abler than ever to press for democratic change. If the fate of post-totalitarian communist dictatorships in the old Soviet bloc is any guide, a bet worth making is that China’s long journey from Maoism to neo-Stalinism via a three-decade trip through post-totalitarianism will be seen as a historical detour that delayed but could not prevent a rendezvous with democratic change. When that meeting happens, Lipset’s modernization thesis shall have its last laugh—and China may finally march out of the long, dark shadow of its totalitarian past.

 

8. Could China send peacekeeping troops to Afghanistan?

thinkchina.sg · by Ma Haiyun · May 3, 2021

The very first point - will there be a UN peacekeeping mission in Afghanistan? I have not heard any discussion of such a mission.

Conclusion: "The prospect of Chinese peacekeeping troops in Afghanistan may later emerge when the Kabul regime, as China’s traditional security partner, either becomes transformed as part of the interim government or even replaced by the Taliban. A UN solution of peacekeeping is certainly helpful to promoting peace in future Afghanistan, but China’s participation owing to geostrategic interests may complicate this mission."

 

9. China is Trying to Break up the Five Eyes Intelligence Network

gatestoneinstitute.org · by Con Coughlin · May 3, 2021

Excerpts: “China is making a deliberate attempt to create divisions within the elite "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing alliance by forging closer relations with the left-wing government of New Zealand premier Jacinda Ardern.

The Five Eyes alliance, comprising the US, Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand, dates back to the Second World War, when a number of key allies decided to share intelligence in their bid to defeat Nazi Germany and Japan.

Today, maintaining intelligence-sharing cooperation between the five Anglophone nations is deemed essential to combating the threat posed by autocratic states, such as Russia and Communist China.

 

10. Organizing for Large-Scale Maritime Combat Operations

divergentoptions.org · by Michael D. Purzycki · May 3, 2021

I don't think large-scale maritime combat operations will be restricted to the maritime domain.

 

11. Increase in rare-earth mining in Myanmar may be funding junta

The Telegraph · by Maighna Nanu

Excerpts: “Limiting military access to foreign currency is the “primary financial pressure point that could elicit a change” in the junta’s behaviour, concluded this week’s IEM report.

Sanctioning the regime’s foreign assets generated from natural gas, mining, forestry, shipping and airlines would cut off roughly $2 billion per year in financing for the military, it said.

The US and the UK have both imposed visa bans and asset freezes on individual generals and moved to sanction the military-controlled conglomerates, Myanma Economic Holdings Ltd (MEHL) and Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC).

The two firms operate in lucrative sectors such as mining, tobacco and gemstones.

 

12. Australia Is Reviewing China’s Ownership of a Darwin Port

Bloomberg · by Jason Scott · May 3, 2021

Excerpts: “China slammed Australia’s decision last month to use new laws to cancel Belt-and-Road agreements with the Victorian state government. There has been increasing speculation Morrison may use the laws, passed in December, to scrap long-term leases held by Chinese companies at the ports in Darwin and Newcastle.

“In relation to the Port of Darwin, if there is any advice that I receive from the Department of Defence or intelligence agencies that suggest there are national security risks there, then you would expect the government to take action on that,” Morrison said in a radio interview Friday.

 

13. S. Korea, China, Japan express concern over uneven economic revival in Asia

m.koreaherald.com · by Park Han-na · May 3, 2021

Excerpts: “At the meeting of the ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, which was held later in the day, the leaders called for the early implementation of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world’s largest free trade deal, signed by 15 countries including Australia and New Zealand in November 2020.

They said the deal will help strengthen economic linkages and enhance trade- and investment-related activities.

During the trilateral meeting, the finance minister told his counterparts that the country will continue with expansionary fiscal policy until the economy gets back on track and will push for the Korean green new deal in pursuit of sustainable growth through the development of the renewable energy sector.

Close cooperation among the three nations will create the strong synergy needed to tackle pending issues they have in common, such as climate change and the restoration of multilateralism, as well as low birth rates and aging populations, he added.

 

14. How a More Resilient America Beat a Midcentury Pandemic

WSJ · by Niall Ferguson

Some fascinating history.

 

15.  From the Past, a Chilling Warning About the Extremists of the Present

The New York Times · by Neil MacFarquhar · May 2, 2021

More interesting and important history.

 

16.  No ‘Boogeyman’: Why the Bin Laden Raid Might be the Last Unifying Moment for US Foreign Policy

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

Excerpts: “The raid that killed bin Laden was not the uniting moment. It was the culmination of a groundswell of rallying around the flag that began with the 9/11 attacks themselves,” said Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University and former National Security Council staffer in the George W. Bush and Clinton administrations. “...To have the impact of the bin Laden raid, it would likely need to be preceded by a galvanizing moment that dramatized the threat. Such a moment is not to be wished for, since it would be a great national tragedy.”

Feaver speculated a “dramatic gesture” to end the Iranian or North Korean nuclear weapons program forever could elicit a celebration across America akin to that felt after the bin Laden raid, but acknowledged such an operation would also likely have a high death toll.

Still, others wondered if America could unite over something positive.

“What about people celebrating the moment in time when the world is rid of Covid?” Ben-Yehuda said. “Or of celebrating a billion Covid shots sent from the U.S. to the developing world. This country is capable of greatness.”

 

17.  The Operational Environment (2021-2030): Great Power Competition, Crisis, and Conflict

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · by user · May 3, 2021

The 28 page document can be downloaded here. 

 

18. Opinion | Is America a Racist Country?

The New York Times · by Charles M. Blow · May 2, 2021

A very controversial opinion piece about one of the most controversial and divisive subjects of our time.

 

--------------

 

"If you hear a voice within you say 'you cannot paint,' then by all means paint and that voice will be silenced." 

- Vincent Van Gogh

 

“If you hate a person, then you’re defeated by them.“ 

- Confucius

 

“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new.” 

- Socrates

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Estimating North Korea’s Nuclear Stockpiles: An Interview With Siegfried Hecker

2. N. Korea should not miss opportunity

3.  Military closely monitoring N.K. activities, no unusual signs yet: JCS

4. Police chief orders thorough probe into anti-N.K. leafleting by defector group

5. Unification minister vows continued efforts for 'meaningful' change in inter-Korean ties

6. N. Korea said to quit World Cup qualifiers to be hosted by S. Korea in June

7. Japan, South Korea nowhere near rapprochement

8. Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung Eui-Yong Before Their Meeting

9. Opinion | This ex-Marine tried to help a North Korean diplomat defect. Now he faces decades in prison.

10. N.K. paper calls for tightened efforts against 'devil's virus'

11. North Korea accuses Joe Biden of pursuing 'hostile policy' over its nuclear programme

12. S. Korea launches new frigate with improved anti-submarine capabilities

13. South Korea eyes production hub for COVID-19 vaccines

14. Biden takes a firm stance on N. Korean nuclear issue

15. Biden's N.Korea Policy Sends a Worrying Signal

16. Picasso's 'Massacre in Korea' displayed here for first time

17. Moon's Approval Rating Nosedives Below 30%

 

1. Estimating North Korea’s Nuclear Stockpiles: An Interview With Siegfried Hecker

38north.org · April 30, 2021

The key point: “How many bombs can North Korea make with those inventories of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and can they make hydrogen bombs?

SH: The plutonium bomb that destroyed Nagasaki in August 1945 used around six kilograms. The Hiroshima bomb used HEU, but it was of a primitive design. How much plutonium or HEU the North Koreans need for a bomb depends on how good their scientists are and what kind of bomb they want to build. A reasonable estimate is five kilograms for plutonium bombs and 25 kilograms for HEU bombs. Using the plutonium and HEU inventories I mentioned leads me to believe the most likely number of bombs is 45. The recent estimates in a RAND/Asan Institute report of 67 to 116 today and 151 to 242 by 2027 are much too high. They estimate that North Korea has the capacity to add 12 to 18 bombs per year; ours is closer to six.

As for hydrogen bombs, these need fusion fuels, namely the heavy hydrogen isotopes deuterium and tritium. Deuterium is easy to produce. Tritium has to be produced in reactors. Looking at the North’s reactor operations over the years, I believe they have produced small amounts of tritium, perhaps enough for a few hydrogen bombs. The real question, of course, is, do they know how to design and build a hydrogen bomb? We are not certain, but the sixth nuclear test was large enough to have been a hydrogen bomb. It likely used a plutonium fission device to drive the fusion reaction. Since the production of plutonium and tritium requires reactors, it is very important to stop reactor operations in Yongbyon permanently.

 

2. N. Korea should not miss opportunity

donga.com · May 3, 2021

This is the key point - the regime wants sanctions lifted before even talking. But the last sentence of this excerpt is the Donga Ilbo's warning to the north.

North Korea should show a change of attitude as the U.S. mentioned upholding the Singapore Agreement and the possibility of easing sanctions. While North Korea argues for ‘first easing sanctions, then talking,’ it is well acknowledged that such an option is not realistic. North Korea also demanded at the Hanoi Summit the easing of key sanctions with the condition of dismantling nuclear facilities in Nyongbyon. North Korea should understand that the Biden administration’s stance of ‘careful, calibrated diplomatic approach’ can change any time with the North’s provocations.

 

3. Military closely monitoring N.K. activities, no unusual signs yet: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · May 3, 2021

Is the operative word "Yet?"

 

4. Police chief orders thorough probe into anti-N.K. leafleting by defector group

en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · May 3, 2021

Stop the appeasement of Kim Yo-jong and the Korean family regime.

 

5. Unification minister vows continued efforts for 'meaningful' change in inter-Korean ties

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · May 3, 2021

Minister Lee just keeps doubling down on his failed ideas and demonstrating a pack of understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

6. N. Korea said to quit World Cup qualifiers to be hosted by S. Korea in June

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · May 3, 2021

I will be hard to reprise the 2018 Olympic engagement. Of maybe the regime just begs the international community for nK participation.

Excerpt: An official from the KFA said the AFC is expected to ask North Korea to reconsider its decision not to travel to South Korea, because there is still some time left before the centralized matches kick off here.

 

7. Japan, South Korea nowhere near rapprochement

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · May 3, 2021

The only way we are going to see an improvement in Japan-ROK relations is if both Moon and Suga decide to exercise decisive leadership and in the face of domestic criticism prioritize national security and national prosperity while managing the historical issues.

 

8. Secretary Antony J. Blinken And Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Chung Eui-Yong Before Their Meeting

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken

Hopefully there will be some substantive remarks following their meeting.

 

9. Opinion | This ex-Marine tried to help a North Korean diplomat defect. Now he faces decades in prison.

The Washington Post · by Max Boot and Sue Mi Terry · May 2, 2021

We should not be extraditing Mr. Ahn.

 

10. N.K. paper calls for tightened efforts against 'devil's virus'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · May 3, 2021

The regime must sustain the threat of COVID to justify imposition of its draconian population and resources control measures in order to further oppress the people to protect the Kim family regime from internal threat.

 

11. North Korea accuses Joe Biden of pursuing 'hostile policy' over its nuclear programme

BBC

It is the Kim family regime that has been pursuing a "hostile policy" toward South Korea and the international community for some 7 decades. It seeks domination of the Korean peninsula and there is no more hostile policy than that.

Kim Jong-un is mirror imaging and projecting.

 

12. S. Korea launches new frigate with improved anti-submarine capabilities

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · May 3, 2021

This is more important for the defense of Korea than the development of a nuclear powered submarine.

 

13. South Korea eyes production hub for COVID-19 vaccines

m.koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · May 3, 2021

Reporting on vaccines in Korea is all over the map.

 

14. Biden takes a firm stance on N. Korean nuclear issue

donga.com · May 3, 2021

This is the unstated difference and friction in the ROK/US alliance about the new US policy for north Korea. We have two different views of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Will we be able to close that gap with the upcoming alliance meetings and president summit on May 21st? Or will we allow the regime to pursue one of its most important lines of effort in its long con and political warfare strategy: divide to conquer - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.

Excerpt: However, the North warned, “They will face a serious situation.” It is a response toward Biden’s first congressional speech that mentioned “diplomacy” and “strong sanctions” as the principle of North Korea policy on Wednesday (local time) and America’s continuous presentation of North Korean human rights issue. The South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae did not make an official announcement regarding this. “The South Korean government is anticipating positive responses of the North for efforts made by the U.S. and South Korea,” said the Foreign Ministry in Seoul.

 

15. Biden's N.Korea Policy Sends a Worrying Signal

english.chosun.com

We should keep in mind that none of us have seen the actual policy (and most of us may never and should not see the full details - many of which should be classified). So everyone is making judgments based on a few statements. And many of the judgments are made to further agendas and preconceived notions.

But "diplomacy and ster deterrence" is in effect the same approach that has gotten the U.S. government nowhere for the last 30 years. The fact that the Biden administration was unable to come up with anything different after a 100-day policy review shows just how complicated the North Korean nuclear question is. As expected, North Korea responded with one of its usual tirades, accusing the U.S. of making a "big blunder" and warning of a "very grave situation." The North is threatening to test launch long and short-range nuclear missiles unless the U.S. eases sanctions or decreases its troop presence in South Korea. Already, the U.S. and South Korea have halted annual joint military exercises to appease North Korea, but to no avail. If the North does not get what it wants, it always resorts to provocation, so close cooperation between the U.S. and its allies is needed more than ever.

​Conclusion: “Kim believes hanging on to his nuclear weapons is his only hope of remaining in power. That attitude has not changed since the days of former his father Kim Jong-il. Hopes of denuclearization are fading rapidly. Moon will sit face to face with Biden on May 21. He needs to let the U.S. leader know that his goal is the complete scrapping of North Korea's nuclear weapons, not another publicity stunt.

​

16. Picasso's 'Massacre in Korea' displayed here for first time

The Korea Times · May 3, 2021

I am an in no way art aficionado. I was familiar with Picasso’s other two works but not this one from the Korean War.

Please go to the link if you cannot see the painting in this message. 

 

17. Moon's Approval Rating Nosedives Below 30%

Historic lows.

english.chosun.com

 

-------------

 

"If you hear a voice within you say 'you cannot paint,' then by all means paint and that voice will be silenced." 

- Vincent Van Gogh

 

“If you hate a person, then you’re defeated by them.“ 

- Confucius

 

“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy not on fighting the old, but on building the new.” 

- Socrates

Access SOF News Update HERE.

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. Navy SEAL focus on GPC, ‘Tab Culture’, MoH for Ranger, AFSOC, international SOF, female WWII spies, proxy warfare, Russia’s GRU, troubles in Sahel, books, podcasts, and videos about SOF.

Editorial Note: Due to travel requirements and other priorities SOF News will not publish any articles for the next week. We will return on Monday, May 10, 2021.

Access the Journal of Advanced Military Studies, Vol 12, No 1. 2021. HERE

Table of Contents:

POLITICAL WARFARE AND PROPAGANDA

Political Warfare and Propaganda: An Introduction 13

James J. F. Forest, PhD

Fake News for the Resistance: 34

The OSS and the Nexus of Psychological Warfare

and Resistance Operations in World War II

Daniel de Wit

All Women Belong in the Kitchen, and Other Dangerous Tropes: 57

Online Misogyny as a National Security Threat

Kyleanne Hunter, PhD, and Emma Jouenne

Consistency of Civil-Military Relations 86

in the Israel Defense Forces:

The Defensive Mode in Cyber

Glen Segell, PhD

Russian Cyber Information Warfare: 112

International Distribution and Domestic Control

Lev Topor, PhD, and Alexander Tabachnik, PhD

Propagandized Adversary Populations in a War of Ideas 128

Donald M. Bishop

Social Antiaccess/Area-Denial (Social A2/AD) 149

Colonel Phil Zeman, USMC

Representation of Armed Forces through Cinematic 165

and Animated Pieces: Case Studies

Michael Cserkits, PhD

Streaming the Battlefield: 181

A Theory of the Internet’s Effect on Negotiation Onset

First Lieutenant Anthony Patrick, USMC

 

REVIEW ESSAYS

The Crucible of War: 197

What Do We Know about Military Adaptation?

Martijn van der Vorm

National Security Is Still an Ambiguous Concept 210

José de Arimatéia da Cruz, PhD/MPH

 

BOOK REVIEWS

Beyond Blue Skies: 217

The Rocket Plane Programs that Led to the Space Age

by Chris Petty

Reviewed by John M. Curatola, PhD

Forging the World: 219

Strategic Narratives and International Relations

edited by Alister Miskimmon, Ben O’Loughlin, and Laura Roselle

Reviewed by Raphaël Zaffran, PhD

It’s My Country Too: 222

Women’s Military Stories from the American Revolution

to Afghanistan

edited by Jerri Bell and Tracy Crow

Reviewed by Sara Ferragamo

Iwo Jima and the Bonin Islands in U.S.-Japan Relations: 234

American Strategy, Japanese Territory, and the Islanders In-Between

by Robert D. Eldridge

 

Reviewed by Samantha Boelter, MAH

Polymaths of Islam: 236

Power and Networks of Knowledge in Central Asia

by James Pickett

Reviewed by Victoria Clement, PhD

Rhetoric and Demagoguery 238

by Patricia Roberts-Miller

Reviewed by Ann Luppi von Mehren

The Secret History of RDX: 241

The Super-Explosive that Helped Win World War II

by Colin F. Baxter

Reviewed by Frank Blazich, PhD

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Exclusive: Coalition calls on Biden to form disinformation task force

2. Putin Just Doesn’t Care - Murder, mayhem—so what? He's trying to make a point. 

3. China Expands Disinformation Campaign to Undermine International Xinjiang Outcry

4. When It Comes to Political Warfare, China is at the Head of the Class

5. Russia’s Sputnik V Skews Stats to Falsely Trash Pfizer Vaccine

6. 'Ghostwriter' disinformation campaign rages on as Biden prepares for NATO trip

7. Chinese workers allege forced labor, abuses in Xi’s ‘Belt and Road’ program

8. Facebook says it removed the internet's 12 most prominent anti-vaxxers. 10 are still on the social network.

9. Biden leaves China a Xinjiang terrorism problem with US exit from Afghanistan

10. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker - Late April Trends (link to complete roll-up)

11. Opinion: Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative

12. Biden’s first 100 days on the global stage were the easy part

13. Pentagon chief calls for ‘new vision’ for American defense

14. State Briefing on SECSTATE Trip to the G7

15. Biden’s Foreign Policy Takes a Back Seat to Domestic Priorities

16. Senate Intel leaders say mysterious directed energy attacks appear to be increasing

17. How a brutal assault led a woman to one of the CIA's most valuable Russian spies

18. Davidson, handing INDOPACOM’s reins to Aquilino, takes one last jab at China

19. Secretary of Defense Remarks for the U.S. INDOPACOM Change of Command

20. FBI and CIA are urged to boost intel gathering on foreign White supremacist groups

21. He mentored decades of Army Rangers. At 94, he’ll receive the Medal of Honor.

22.  As counterterror missions fade, special operations finds time to fix its own problems

23. Nathan Chapman: Remembering the first US soldier killed in Afghan war as troops pull out after 2 decades

24. From "Stability Operations" to "Stabilization Activities:" Why and How the Department of Defense changed its Doctrine and Policies

25. Candid reflections on Afghanistan from those whose lives were changed forever by the war

26.  ‘Congratulations, You Killed Osama bin Laden’

27. Teamwork Led Us to Bin Laden and Can Keep America Safe

28. Donald Kirk: How anti-Asianism explodes in wake of the 'China virus'

29. "Oh So Social" Conversation: Osama bin Laden Raid - 10 Years Later (OSS Society)

 

1. Exclusive: Coalition calls on Biden to form disinformation task force

Reprise the Active Measures Working Group from the Raegan-Bush years? Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference

By Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Strategic Perspectives 11  

Matt Armstrong can weigh in on the merits of doing so.  

Quote from Matt's 2017 testimony: "We have remarkably little relevant experience in combating the political warfare being waged against us today. We may imagine that the United States Information Agency and the Active Measures Working Group are guideposts, but USIA was never intended nor fit for that purpose and the Active Measures Working Group was a very small and very reactionary operation. Neither is a useful model of proactive and unified defense, let alone offense."

Axios · by Ina Fried

 

2. Putin Just Doesn’t Care - Murder, mayhem—so what? He's trying to make a point. 

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

 

3. China Expands Disinformation Campaign to Undermine International Xinjiang Outcry

rfa.org

Note this is from Radio Free Asia and this is broadcast into China.

 

4. When It Comes to Political Warfare, China is at the Head of the Class

oodaloop.com · by Emilio Iasiello · April 23, 2021

Excerpts: “This raises into question President Biden’s strategy to use coalitions to reign in and contain adversaries. While many may join in curtailing countries like Iran and North Korea, China’s burgeoning status as a global leader and its strong economy may present benefits that far outweigh any preferred courses of action against it. China’s influence operations and disinformation/misinformation campaigns are exactly the types of activities Beijing will use to cast doubt and sow division in order to weaken the resolve of some of the more malleable alliance members. This may result in the White House settling for a mild Plan C when it comes to addressing China instead of going with a strong Plan A.

China’s political warfare embodies the types of activities Beijing implement against such an alliance. They will be used to cast doubt and sow division to weaken the resolve of some of the more malleable members. What’s more, political warfare (in tandem with its broader “Three Warfares” strategy) exemplifies the tenets expressed in Chinese writings of “winning a war without fighting.” When it comes to shaping perceptions, China has excelled in the information space. If the United States does not put up is own counter to these activities, it may find itself incorrectly thinking its strength remains behind a Maginot Line that’s crumbling from its base.

 

5. Russia’s Sputnik V Skews Stats to Falsely Trash Pfizer Vaccine

polygraph.info · by William Echols · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. officials have previously accused Russian intelligence of running disinformation campaigns to undermine faith in the Pfizer vaccine.

Polygraph.info previously noted that the state-owned Russian Gazette published an article in February claiming 64 people in Sweden had died from side effects of the Pfizer vaccine, despite the fact that Sweden’s medical watchdog found that none of the deaths were vaccine-related.

A study by The Alliance for Securing Democracy, which is affiliated with the German Marshall Fund of the United States, found that “Pfizer received by far the most unfavorable coverage of any vaccine, particularly from Kremlin-funded outlets and Iranian state media and government accounts.”

 

6. 'Ghostwriter' disinformation campaign rages on as Biden prepares for NATO trip

cyberscoop.com · by Sean Lyngaas · April 28, 2021

A 33 page PDF of a report on "Ghostwriter" is at this link.

Excerpts: “The Ghostwriter activity is the kind of foreign disinformation that Joe Biden will be up against as he prepares to make his first overseas trip as U.S. president in June. Biden will attend a NATO summit in Brussels where is expected to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to the transnational bloc.

NATO has long been a fixation for Ghostwriter operatives. They forged a letter last year from the NATO secretary general to Lithuania’s defense ministry purporting to announce the withdrawal of NATO troops from that country. But the attackers have also veered into pure domestic politics by hacking Polish politicians’ Twitter, Facebook and Instagram accounts to smear them or to attack social activists in Poland, according to FireEye.

 

7. Chinese workers allege forced labor, abuses in Xi’s ‘Belt and Road’ program

The Washington Post · by Lily Kuo and Alicia Chen · April 30, 2021

I hope the Global Engagement Center is including this in its themes and message planning. Of course we want these messages to come from other sources than simply the USG so hopefully articles like these will have legs.

 

8. Facebook says it removed the internet's 12 most prominent anti-vaxxers. 10 are still on the social network.

Mashable · by Matt Binder

Excerpts: “The Center for Countering Digital Hate and Anti-Vax Watch are urging the big social media platforms to take action and enforce their own policies.

“Big Tech promised to protect public health by taking enforcement action against known, repeat-offender vaccine disinformation superspreaders. Yet, so far, they have failed to finish the job,” said CCDH CEO Imran Ahmed in a statement. “The CEOs of Facebook, Twitter and Instagram know exactly who is violating their terms of service. Their lies cost lives, and social media companies’ refusal to remove them has dire consequences. Big Tech must stop profiting from the spread of this disinformation.”

Mashable has reached out to Facebook regarding the actions the company took as mentioned at today's hearing and will update this post when we hear back.

 

9. Biden leaves China a Xinjiang terrorism problem with US exit from Afghanistan

SCMP · by Maria Siow · May 01, 2021

An interesting perspective I had not considered.

 

10. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker - Late April Trends (link to complete roll-up)

FDD · by Jonathan Schanzer · April 30, 2021

 

11. Opinion: Regime change in China is not only possible, it is imperative

The Globe and Mail · by Roger Garside · April 30, 2021

Wow. Now here is a provocative new book with a very provocative thesis.

Maybe there is a role for Gene Sharp's From Dictatorship to Democracy . I wonder if Sharp is cited in his book.

A coup is one way in which change can come. Another possibility is that Mr. Xi’s opponents will prevent his reappointment as general secretary of the Communist Party at its next national congress in November, 2022, and will use that occasion to launch China onto the path of change. That congress is a crucial point on China’s timeline to the future, because the reappointment of Mr. Xi would raise the prospect of him remaining leader for life and make his removal thereafter much more difficult.

The potential benefits of an orderly transition from dictatorship to democracy in China test the limits of the imagination. They include peace based on trust; a great extension of the domain of democracy and the rule of law; and a liberation of the creative genius of the Chinese people in the arts and sciences to match that which has already occurred in the field of economic activity. To achieve this outcome will require a degree of skill and courage on the part of all those engaged in shaping our future seldom seen in history. But my faith in humanity is strong enough to allow me to believe it is within our grasp.

 

12. Biden’s first 100 days on the global stage were the easy part

NBC News · by Alexander Smith · May 1, 2021

Yes it is a complex world out there.

Excerpts: “But explaining how you're going to solve the world's intractable puzzles is a lot easier than actually solving them.

If these obstacles were daunting when Biden was Obama's vice president, they have gained a new complexity now.

America finds its global dominance challenged, and there is now far more domestic scrutiny on foreign commitments than the relative leeway in the years after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Babones believes.

"It's just a more complex world," von Hippel at RUSI said. "The U.S. is not as strong as it was four years ago, and it needs to compromise more and be a different type of superpower."

 

13. Pentagon chief calls for ‘new vision’ for American defense

Star-Advertiser · by Cindy Ellen Russell · May 1, 2021

Excerpts: “U.S. military isn’t meant to stand apart, but to buttress U.S. diplomacy and advance a foreign policy that employs all of our instruments of national power,” Austin said.

He chose to spell out his ideas at Pearl Harbor, at the center of U.S. military power in the Indo- Pacific region, reflecting U.S. concerns that China’s rapid modernization and growing assertiveness make it a powerful adversary. Notably, Austin in his speech did not explicitly mention China or North Korea.

In his first four-plus months as defense secretary, Austin has focused less on big policy pronouncements and more on immediate issues like the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and internal issues like extremism in the military, as well as launching broad reviews of defense strategy.

...

Austin said U.S. defense will continue to rest on maintaining deterrence, which he described as “fixing a basic truth within the minds of our potential foes: The costs and risks of aggression are out of line with any conceivable benefit.”

To keep that deterrent effect, the U.S. military must use existing capabilities, develop new ones and use all of them in new and networked ways — “hand in hand with our allies and partners.” This should be accomplished in alignment with U.S. diplomatic goals and efforts, he added, in order to prevent conflict from breaking out in the first place.

“It’s always easier to stamp out a small ember than to put out a raging fire,” he said.

 

14. State Briefing on SECSTATE Trip to the G7

state.gov

Excerpts: “On the agenda for this year’s G7, it will be filled with weighty issues, including COVID-19, economic recovery and growth, the climate crisis, human rights, food security, gender equality, and more. The list of challenges is long, but our partnerships are deep and strong to tackle these challenges.

Our approach to responding is just as important, in fact, as the challenges themselves. We’ll discuss geopolitical challenges from the perspective of collaborative and multilateral strength. We will affirm the values our nations share, such as media freedoms and how to protect them. We will discuss a sustainable recovery from the pandemic and how to develop greater resilience going forward.

The pandemic and the climate crisis are the latest reminders that we are bound together in a global community. Our history of shared values with our G7 partners will be a firm base as we work to meet these global challenges.

Briefing With Acting Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip T. Reeker and International Organization Affairs Senior Bureau Official Erica Barks-Ruggles on the Secretary’s Upcoming Travel to the United Kingdom for G7 Meetings and Ukraine - United States Department of State.”

 

15. Biden’s Foreign Policy Takes a Back Seat to Domestic Priorities

WSJ · by Warren P. Strobel and Vivian Salama

We cannot conduct effective foreign policy if our domestic house is not in order. On the other hand we have to walk and chew gum at the same time.

 

16.  Senate Intel leaders say mysterious directed energy attacks appear to be increasing

CNN · by Jeremy Herb

Strange, troubling, and begs the question, if real, what are we going to do about this?

Excerpts: “The Pentagon and CIA have separately set up task forces to address the issue, and the State Department named a senior official to lead the department's response. CIA Director William Burns said during his confirmation hearing that he would review the evidence on the alleged attacks on CIA personnel overseas.

...

"We have been working quietly and persistently behind closed doors on this critical issue since the first reports, and pressed Director Burns on it during the recent Worldwide Threats hearing, in both open and closed session," the spokesperson said. "The Committee will continue to hold events and briefings on this subject and we will follow the evidence wherever it may lead and ensure anyone responsible is held to account."

 

17. How a brutal assault led a woman to one of the CIA's most valuable Russian spies

news.yahoo.com · by  Jenna McLaughlin and Sean D. Naylor

Truth is stranger than fiction. A long, fascinating read.

Excerpt: “Unperturbed, Sales began her own investigation. Over the next several years, she pieced together documents Mikhaylov had left behind, conducted her own interviews and scoured the internet for information. Sales eventually came to believe the CIA had helped her former tenant move to the United States, and is protecting him as part of a legal maneuver roughly similar to the Justice Department’s witness protection program. The reason, she argues, is that he’s the son of one of the agency’s most valuable assets of the past two decades.

 

18. Davidson, handing INDOPACOM’s reins to Aquilino, takes one last jab at China

Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olson · May 01, 2021

Excerpt: “Make no mistake, the Communist Party of China seeks to supplant the idea of a free and open international order with a new order, one with Chinese characteristics, one where Chinese national power is more important than international law,” he said during an afternoon ceremony that included remarks by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 

19. Secretary of Defense Remarks for the U.S. INDOPACOM Change of Command

defense.gov

 

21. He mentored decades of Army Rangers. At 94, he’ll receive the Medal of Honor.

The Washington Post · by Dan Lamothe · April 30, 2021

Another great American who is going to finally get what he deserves.

 

22. As counterterror missions fade, special operations finds time to fix its own problems

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 30, 2021

 

23. Nathan Chapman: Remembering the first US soldier killed in Afghan war as troops pull out after 2 decades

meaww.com · by Shubham Ghosh · April 29, 2021

It was an honor to serve with Nate in 1-1 SFG in Okinawa. He was our communications sergeant in C-1-1 just before he PCS'd back to Fort Lewis and was selected for this mission (after he of course volunteered for it).

But we should all be troubled by this concluding section: “Chapman’s family kept on suffering

In July 2012, the CBS News carried a report that spoke in detail about the difficulties that Chapman’s widow Renae went through after his death. Besides the tragedy of losing a loved one who she said “was funny”, Renae has also found it challenging to get the benefits from the veterans affairs department that were promised to Chapman’s family. Ranae, who faced medical hardships after her husband’s passing away, was quoted as saying by CBS News: “They clerical error you to death. They paperwork you to death.”

She said she hadn’t got the payments she owed for dental work because the VA department “insisted” that Nathan died a year earlier than he did and that meant some of her benefits were well past their expiry date. She also said she did not get medical benefits because the department thought she had conditions that were outside the purview of primary health insurance, something she denied. Ranae, who attended former president George W Bush’s State of the Union speech as a guest of former first lady Laura Bush in 2002, has also been made to prove to the department that she has not married again. Ranae told the network that she feels for those thousands of soldiers who return home from the battlefield with a bruised body and psyche and feared that they are not going to get the help they need.

 

24. From "Stability Operations" to "Stabilization Activities:" Why and How the Department of Defense changed its Doctrine and Policies

linkedin.com · by Robert Burrell · April 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Whether or not these changes were needed following the Long War remains in question. Historically, the U.S. military has a mixed record on stabilization, with some very positive results. The two prevalent case studies remain the great successes in Japan and Germany following World War II. There also remains many issues unresolved about exactly how the State Department will implement its new responsibilities, particularly on a massive scale like that conducted in Iraq or Afghanistan. Another key question regards how the State Department will operate in non-permissive environments to achieve stabilization.

In conclusion, the Department of Defense, State Department, and USAID – all joined at the hip – have set out on a new direction in regard to stabilization, a collaboration which was long overdue and appears very promising. At the same time, the history behind how and why these changes took place are also important to understanding where the U.S. Government is headed.

 

25. Candid reflections on Afghanistan from those whose lives were changed forever by the war

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · April 29, 2021

 

26. ‘Congratulations, You Killed Osama bin Laden’

Politico · by Garrett M. Graff · April 30, 2021

Another long very interesting read.

 

27. Teamwork Led Us to Bin Laden and Can Keep America Safe

defenseone.com · by Leon E. Panetta and Jenny Bash

 

28.  Donald Kirk: How anti-Asianism explodes in wake of the 'China virus'

wacotrib.com · by Donald Kirk

 

29."Oh So Social" Conversation: Osama bin Laden Raid - 10 Years Later (OSS Society)

Register at this link. 

 

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“To fight the good fight is one of the bravest and noblest of life’s experiences. Not the bloodshed and the battle of man with man, but the grappling with mental and spiritual adversaries that determines the inner caliber of the contestant. It is the quality of the struggle put forth by a man that proclaims to the world what manner of man he is far more than may be by the termination of the battle.

 

It matters not nearly so much to a man that he succeeds in winning some long-sought prize as it does that he has worked for it honestly and unfalteringly with all the force and energy there is in him. It is in the effort that the soul grows and asserts itself to the fullest extent of its possibilities, and he that has worked will, persevering in the face of all opposition and apparent failure, fairly and squarely endeavoring to perform his part to the utmost extent of his capabilities, may well look back upon his labor regardless of any seeming defeat in its result and say, ‘I have fought a good fight.’

 

As you throw the weight of your influence on the side of the good, the true and the beautiful, your life will achieve an endless splendor. It will continue in the lives of others, higher, finer, nobler than you can even contemplate.”

- Hugh B. Brown