Small Wars Journal

Journal

Journal Articles are typically longer works with more more analysis than the news and short commentary in the SWJ Blog.

We accept contributed content from serious voices across the small wars community, then publish it here as quickly as we can, per our Editorial Policy, to help fuel timely, thoughtful, and unvarnished discussion of the diverse and complex issues inherent in small wars.

by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker, by José de Arimatéia da Cruz | Tue, 08/04/2020 - 9:16pm | 0 comments
A facção (drug trafficking faction) in Rio de Janeiro led by Álvaro Malaquias Santa Rosa, known as Peixão (Big Fish), is exploiting the COVID-19 pandemic to consolidate control over a group of favelas (slums) in the Northern Zone of Rio de Janeiro. The result is a complex of five favelas: Cidade Alta, Vigário Geral, Parada de Lucas, Cinco Bocas, and Pica-Pau known as the "Complexo de Israel" (Israel Complex or Network of Israel). The favelas comprising the “Complexo de Israel” have a combined population of about 134,000 inhabitants. Peixão’s gang employs a mix of religious imagery and targeted confessional violence to exert territorial control and dominate the illicit market.
by Tim Nichols | Sun, 08/02/2020 - 5:53pm | 0 comments
This paper discusses how our special operations professionals should transition from two decades of counter-terrorist operations to emerging great-power threats. Nichols argues that there are some significant areas of mis-alignment in terms of training and resources, and that senior leaders should address this.
by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker, by Juan Ricardo Gómez Hecht | Fri, 07/31/2020 - 6:40pm | 0 comments
On Monday, 20 July 2020, suspected members of Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) attacked a military police guards at a prison—la Peniteciaría Nacional de Támara—north of Tegucigalpa, according to the Instituto Nacional Penitenciaro (INP – National Penitentiary Institute). The attack, by prison inmates, involved firearms (assault rifles and pistols, as well as grenades). One sergeant received firearms injuries.
by Elina Driscoll | Sun, 07/26/2020 - 12:37pm | 0 comments
This paper explores the 1994-1996 Chechen War, which was the first large-scale military conflict involving post-Soviet Russia and played a crucial role in reshaping Russia's military and political strategy. The war, also known as the First Chechen War, resulted in the unexpected victory of Chechen insurgents, who managed to defeat the better equipped Russians due to their skillful use of guerrilla tactics, clever use of geography and urban warfare, and deep understanding of Russia's political and military vulnerabilities.
by Daniel Harris | Sat, 07/25/2020 - 10:06am | 0 comments
Although since 2009 the Pakistani military has partially shifted from its conventional force posture to a modern COIN approach in its conflict with the TTP insurgency, coercive tactics are still employed today. As a result of their initial tactics and current human rights abuses, the military succeeded in routing TTP strongholds but failed to address the insurgency’s root-grievances, alienating the population and ensuring post-conflict regional insecurity.
by Allyson Christy | Mon, 07/20/2020 - 9:07am | 2 comments
This paper analyses the timeframe of American manufacturing decline matched to China's rapid power gains against US economic and national interests and security vulnerabilities.
by Randy Noorman | Fri, 07/17/2020 - 10:29am | 0 comments
The battle of Debaltseve is the largest battle of encirclement in contemporary European military history. This article focuses on the composition of the Russian backed separatist forces, the units and equipment deployed, and subsequent proof of Russia’s military involvement in the conflict.
by Magdalena Defort | Tue, 07/14/2020 - 4:17pm | 0 comments
This assessment seeks to answer questions about how social programs run by Venezuela’s Chavista regime became a perfect mechanism for building a widespread international corruption network to benefit the president and his cronies. It examines the pivotal role played by foreign powers—i.e., Iran, and Turkey—in these clandestine illegal operations.
by John P. Sullivan, by José de Arimatéia da Cruz, by Robert Bunker | Sat, 07/11/2020 - 4:33pm | 2 comments
On 3 June 2020, Brazilian police in Greater São Paulo launched Operação Soldi Sporchi (Operation Dirty Money), serving search and arrest warrants against members of the First Capitol Command (Primeiro Comando da Capital – PCC). The PCC was alleged to have used medical and dental clinics to launder money earned from the gang’s drug trafficking activities and treat injured gang members to avoid detection by the police. The investigation also exposed corrupt connections to public officials and transnational links to the ‘Ndrangheta.
by Alexander Elfes | Fri, 07/10/2020 - 3:43pm | 0 comments
Lieutenant Alexander Elfes, Platoon Commander, 1st Military Police Battalion, Australian Army provides an overview of the May 2020 Warrant Officer Class 1 Ken Bullman OAM lecture series (KBLS) on 'Mexico's criminal Insurgencies" by Dr John P. Sullivan.
by Thomas Dyrenforth | Fri, 07/10/2020 - 8:20am | 0 comments
By increasing IMET opportunities for sub-Saharan African partners, the U.S. can counter Chinese influence by building interoperability with African militaries, strengthening strategic relationships, developing English language capacities, and promoting American values—all directly supporting U.S. security interests in Africa. This increased engagement is especially timely during a period of global power competition as other countries will gladly fill this void.
by Angelo Thomas | Sun, 07/05/2020 - 8:51pm | 0 comments
A Year Inside MS-13 is the product of Juan Jose Martínez’s one year stay in 2011 with the Guanacos Criminales Salvatrucha (GCS)—an MS-13 clica (clique)—in the suburbs of San Salvador. Translated from Spanish, the book provides an inside perspective on MS-13 which unfolds through the telling of highly detailed vignettes.
by John P. Sullivan | Fri, 07/03/2020 - 12:06am | 0 comments
Review of P.W. Singer and August Cole's "Burn-In: A Novel of the Real Robotic Revolution."
by Alma Keshavarz, by Robert Bunker | Wed, 07/01/2020 - 9:47pm | 0 comments
On 27 May 2020, Acting DEA Administrator Timothy J. Shea and United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York Geoffrey S. Berman charged Adel El Zabayar—a former Venezuelan National Assembly member—in a Manhattan federal court with narcoterrorism, a cocaine importation conspiracy, a series of weapons related charges, and money laundering. The charges were based on a DEA agent’s testimony and his broader investigation into El Zabayara’s links to Venezuelan Cártel de los Soles, Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), Hezbollah (Hizballah), and Hamas.
by Shawn Creamer | Wed, 07/01/2020 - 7:57pm | 0 comments
The United States needs a different North Korea approach that addresses American national security interests but limits the danger of strategic weapons use and does not default to hostilities, forceful subjugation, or occupation by the United States. This paper proposes an alternative path for America’s leadership to consider. 
by Robert C. Jones | Tue, 06/30/2020 - 4:54pm | 2 comments
This paper explores how ideas influence strategic thinking, using the example of how defining concepts such as "insurgency", "warfare", and "complexity" set a tone and framework for counterinsurgency strategy.
by Lemar Alexander Farhad | Thu, 06/25/2020 - 10:00am | 5 comments
Drawing from his career experiences of reforming military and security forces of partner and allied nations, LTC Lemar Farhad suggests a new way of thinking about policing in America; a novel paradigm for recruitment, training, evaluation, and monitoring of police officers.
by Sam Mullins | Thu, 06/25/2020 - 9:29am | 0 comments
Violent extremists and terrorists have undoubtedly seized upon the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to peddle their propaganda and try and exploit the situation to their advantage. But are we perhaps over-estimating the threat? This paper argues that while there is indeed much to be concerned about, there is also reason to believe that terrorists’ gains may be far more modest than many people seem to think, particularly in the short-term.
by Robert Bunker | Sat, 06/20/2020 - 9:19pm | 0 comments
This SWJ El Centro Review Essay looks at a recent book on Mara Salvatrucha, "Operation Devil Horns: The Take Down of MS-13 in San Francisco" in the context of MS-13 gang culture and organizational characteristics.
by Rose Croshier | Fri, 06/19/2020 - 12:17pm | 4 comments
This paper lays out why now is the perfect time for Combatant Commands, in particular U.S. Africa Command, to turn inward, and take advantage of this ‘tactical pause’ under COVID-19 to lead substantive reform of security cooperation at the operational level.
by Peter Kent Forster, by Gregory J. Kruczek, by Ava Sullivan | Tue, 06/16/2020 - 10:14am | 0 comments
This paper examines the emerging realignment within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), its control over the PMF, and the greater implications for US policy towards Iraq and Iran.
by Marta Kepe | Mon, 06/15/2020 - 11:57am | 1 comment
Marta Kepe examines what the advent of autonomous technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) may mean for military effectiveness and the ability to project power.
by Crispin Burke | Wed, 06/10/2020 - 1:53pm | 0 comments
Crispin Burke lays out a comprehensive overview of various Private Military Contractors (PMCs) operating in Libya in light of recent news of Russian jets supporting Wagner Group mercenaries in the country.
by Anna Sergi, by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker | Thu, 06/04/2020 - 10:34pm | 0 comments
The COVID-19 pandemic has created opportunities and challenges for transnational organized crime groups, and mafias worldwide. This strategic note assesses the situation among the Italian mafias, including the Sicilian mafia, camorra, and ‘ndragheta.
by Alexandra Phelan, by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker | Tue, 06/02/2020 - 11:50pm | 0 comments
The COVID-19 pandemic has created opportunities and challenges for Criminal Armed Groups (CAGs)—criminal cartels, gangs, maras, and mafias—worldwide. This strategic note assesses the situation among Colombia’s revolutionaries (the FARC –Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, ELN – Ejército de Liberación Nacional, and dissident factions, and BACRIM – bandas criminales.
by Octavian Manea | Tue, 05/26/2020 - 4:07pm | 0 comments
SWJ interview with Dr. David Kilcullen, author of the newly published Dragons and the Snakes - How the Rest learned to fight the West, Oxford University Press, March 2020. He is a professor of practice in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University and a professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of New South Wales.
by Nathan P. Jones | Sat, 05/23/2020 - 6:52pm | 0 comments
SWJ–El Centro Fellow Nathan P. Jones reviews the new Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Mexico and Central America Dataset.
by Robert Bunker, by Angelo Thomas | Sat, 05/23/2020 - 2:50pm | 0 comments
This research note seeks to provide some initial and exploratory insights—primarily but not exclusively via imagery interpretation—into 18th Street dark spiritual activities. 18th Street (Barrio 18) linkages to dark spirituality will be addressed from within the context of both United States (CONUS) and outside of the country (OCONUS) perspectives, with the latter focusing on the gang’s presence in the Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA).
by David Kuhn, by Robert Bunker, by John P. Sullivan | Thu, 05/21/2020 - 6:09pm | 0 comments
Search and seizure operations were conducted by Mexican federal agencies in San Andrés Cholula, Puebla state on 25-26 April 2020 due to an anonymous tip. These operations resulted in the seizure of a ‘terrorist arsenal’ (arsenal terrorista) of weapons and equipment including the components required to make weaponized drones. This arsenal is thought to be linked to ongoing organized crime bombings in Guanajuato state—with possible Cártel de Santa Rosa de Lima (CSRL) ties—and represents one more data point concerning the growing weaponized drone capabilities of the Mexican cartels and criminal gangs.
by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker | Mon, 05/18/2020 - 3:37pm | 0 comments
Gangs in the Cape Town region have enacted a truce in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. South Africa is in the midst of a lockdown to contain the coronavirus outbreak that is also leading to food shortages. The truce involves gangs throughout the Cape Flats, including Manenberg. The participating gangs are joining together to distribute food, soap, and essential goods in an effort to provide relief to the communities in which they exist.[
by Scott Crino, by Andy Dreby | Sun, 05/10/2020 - 4:39pm | 0 comments
Libya experienced a steep increase in fighting last month. The April fighting produced significant lessons learned, especially with respect to drones and counter drone technology. These included the employment of unmanned “kamikaze” loitering munitions by the GNA and HAF, the appearance of handheld counter drone systems, and advanced commercial-off-the-shelf flight components being used to support reconnaissance and surveillance.
by Robert Bunker, by Pamela Ligouri Bunker | Sun, 05/10/2020 - 3:26pm | 0 comments
This research note provides an update concerning new radical Islamist English-language online magazines appearing since the ebook publication of The Islamic State English-Language Online Magazine Rumiyah (Rome).
by Robert Bunker, by John P. Sullivan | Fri, 05/08/2020 - 6:37pm | 0 comments
Various organized crime entities throughout Latin America, Europe, and Africa—including gangs, cartels, and mafias—are increasingly responding to the global COVID-19 pandemic in a number of ways. These include accounting for a shift in their illicit revenue streams and exploring new economic opportunities that are emerging. In the area of humanitarian response, a large number of the Mexican cartels are now actively engaging in these activities for their public relations and propaganda value in supporting their ‘protector of the community narratives’ targeted at the local citizenry under their control. These cartel activities are not without precedent and have taken place in Mexico in the past—though not as widespread and pronounced as they are now—and further reinforce ongoing criminal insurgency analysis related to this phenomena linked to Eric Hobsbawm’s ‘social banditry’ construct. 
by John P. Sullivan, by Robert Bunker, by Juan Ricardo Gómez Hecht | Tue, 05/05/2020 - 5:10pm | 0 comments
Salvadoran maras (gangs) have adapted to the COVID-19 outbreak by enforcing social control in the form of domestic quarantine (cuarentena domiciliar), curfews, and social distancing. The major maras, i.e. MS-13, and the Sureños and Revolucionarios factions of Barrio 18 (Eighteenth Street), have communicated this ‘public health’ dictate throughout the territories they control. In addition to enforcing domestic ‘quarantine,’ the Barrio 18 factions have suspended collecting ‘street taxes’ (extortion payments) while MS-13 continues to collect ‘renta’ (rent).
by Scott C. Buchanan | Mon, 04/20/2020 - 9:35am | 2 comments
Barring an unforeseen event or shift in policy, it seems likely that by May 2021, the United States will remove its military forces from Afghanistan. Despite claims of progress, the United States and its allies have undeniably made many mistakes over the past two decades. Some commentators have argued that Afghanistan has been an “undeniable failure.” While many commentators and policymakers have focused on getting out of Afghanistan, the past shows the potentially devastating consequences such actions could bring. Instead, the United States and its NATO allies should consider leaving a small presence of advisors to support institutional development at the ministries and institutions.
by Rex Bray III, by Jacques Singer-Emery | Sun, 04/19/2020 - 10:01am | 3 comments
Over the past several years, far-right extremists have leveraged online platforms ranging from social media to Stormfront to congregate with one another, convert new members, and concoct violent plans. They have been so effective that the FBI recently elevated “to top level priority racially motivated violent extremism so it is on the same footing in terms of our national threat banding as ISIS and homegrown violent extremism.”
by Douglas A. Livermore | Sat, 04/18/2020 - 8:39pm | 0 comments
The ability to leverage financial capabilities to bankroll both technological innovation and large-scale production of war materiel has increasingly driven the evolution of modern warfare. There is every indication that these interdependent elements will continue to have an even greater impact on the international security environment in the 21st century and beyond.
by Adam D.M. Svendsen, by Salem B.S. Dandan | Sat, 04/18/2020 - 10:14am | 1 comment
Today is an appropriate time for encouraging and indeed advocating some further innovative change both to and for contemporary intelligence. This article aims to accomplish that objective by featuring and further advancing an understanding of the recently introduced and developing concept of ‘Intelligence Engineering’, abbreviated henceforth as ‘IE’, and also known as the ‘Bridgehead Methodology’.
by Allyson Christy | Fri, 04/17/2020 - 10:08am | 0 comments
Worries over continued internal rifts and greater instabilities and provoking regional fallout remain consistent. Conflicts have widened over the divisional quagmire, with France, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel similarly delineating concerns over risks and their offshore energy interests.
by Belquis Ahmadi, by Palwasha L. Kakar | Fri, 04/17/2020 - 9:01am | 0 comments
The COVID-19 crisis comes at a critical juncture for Afghanistan. The disputed 2019 presidential election has led to a stalemate between incumbent President Ghani and the chief executive of the last government, Abdullah Abdullah, both of whom claim the right to govern. At a time when the Afghan government should be focused on the best chance to bring peace in years, it’s distracted by a political crisis.
by Joseph J. Collins | Thu, 04/16/2020 - 6:23pm | 0 comments
In the last 20 years, we have twice suffered strategic surprise attacks. In each case, we were unprepared for what was an entirely foreseeable attack on the homeland. In each case, the national security bureaucracy --- Defense, State, Intelligence, and various homeland security entities --- paid inadequate attention to preparing for an event that its own Cassandras had declared as probable.
by Scott Crino, by Andy Dreby | Thu, 04/16/2020 - 11:59am | 0 comments
Since the Idlib operation, a number of articles have appeared with glowing reviews on the sophistication of Turkey’s homegrown drone force and its tactical effectiveness in Syria. While decidedly impactful, a review of the operation suggests there are some shortcomings as well. These include questions about the Turkish drones’ operational reach, lethality and survivability. Any analysis of the implications of Turkey’s demonstrated UAS strength, particularly their potential role in other conflict zones, should consider these potential vulnerabilities as well.
by Danielle Robertson | Wed, 04/15/2020 - 10:35am | 0 comments
As health organizations and national governments seek to stem the spread of COVID-19, it is critical that they understand the gender dynamics in their societies. Efforts to combat the pandemic will only go so far if women and girls are left behind in the process. For example, how can a woman experiencing domestic violence quarantine at home safely?
by Allyson Christy | Wed, 04/15/2020 - 12:45am | 0 comments
Rationalizing the 2011 uprising and elimination of the Gaddafi regime was unlikely linked to foreseeable gaps that could quickly fill with anything other than resolution, calm, or peace. Corruption has not only hindered political and economic stability, but has augmented lawlessness, insecurity, and a non-nation status that is rife for increasing humanitarian disaster.
by Eric Collin | Tue, 04/14/2020 - 11:01am | 1 comment
Like the mystery of the pyramids or the recent findings in Holy Scripture, the Center of Gravity concept has all the ingredients to generate passionate debates. The 19th century master of military theory, Carl von Clausewitz, first introduced the concept in his unfinished manuscript published after his death. It remained largely unknown, like old papyrus, until it was poorly translated to English and resurrected in Western military theory in the 1980’s as THE key for victory! Since then it has taken on the status of military theory’s ‘Holy Grail’ and fueled countless quests for truth and understanding.
by Irina Tsukerman | Mon, 04/13/2020 - 12:26am | 0 comments
Whether during the Cold War or today, "free", open, liberal democratic societies are at an inherent disadvantage when it comes to the playing field and information flow. First, having access to information alone is not sufficient for the critical assessment of that information. Indeed, indoctrination through repetitive exposure to a particular point of view can be as harmful in that sense as complete lack of access. Nor does greater access to information by itself lead to greater security. Failure to identify and prioritize important and correct information can lead to devastating intelligence and policy failures.
by Oge Onubogu | Mon, 04/13/2020 - 12:12am | 0 comments
Nigerian leaders struggling to reduce violence in the country’s myriad conflicts should take some lessons—from their own response to the coronavirus. While Nigeria’s COVID-19 ordeal is still unfolding, its eventual casualties unknown, the Nigeria Center for Disease Control and several governors have modeled the ways to reduce catastrophic outbreaks.
by Joseph Yun, by Frank Aum, by Paul Kyumin Lee | Sun, 04/12/2020 - 6:02pm | 0 comments
North Korea’s poor health infrastructure and proximity to coronavirus hotspots make it especially vulnerable to the deadly pandemic. Increasing the risks, humanitarian workers and medical supplies in the North Korea are limited by travel restrictions and sanctions even as the U.N. sanctions committee provided some exemptions to help deal with the virus. An outbreak of the disease in North Korea could have crippling political and socioeconomic consequences, even threatening its internal stability.
by Nils Gilman | Sun, 04/12/2020 - 11:10am | 0 comments
Stuart Schrader, "Badges without Borders: How Global Counterinsurgency Transformed American Policing". Berkeley: University of California Press, 2019 [ ISBN: 9780520295629, paper, 416 pages].
by Keith Mines, by Steve Hege | Sat, 04/11/2020 - 11:04am | 0 comments
Helping Venezuela resolve its political crisis will be vital to containing the potentially catastrophic COVID-19 pandemic there. A truce in the country’s power struggle is urgent, and last week’s U.S. proposal for a transitional government offers useful ideas, even for a naturally skeptical governing regime.