News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Moon out of step with Biden ahead of Korea-US summit

2. US seizes Cameroon-flagged tanker for North Korea sanctions evasion

3. 'Salami tactics' vs. roadmap (north Korea)

4. Police clash with protesters over deliveries to Thaad base

5. North Korea’s Oil Procurement Networks

6. South Korea to push forward US-North Korea talks

7.  More verifiable data needed to consider publishing report on N.K. human rights situations: official

8. Anti-China sentiment growing in Korea

9. Korea Must Not Kowtow to Chinese Bullying

10. N. Korea conducts successful tests of reconnaissance and offensive-use "mini unmanned drones"

11. Moon Must Stop Blaming Others for His Vaccine Failure

12. Amid growing signs of Sino-N. Korean trade restarting, Sinuiju customs office partially reopened

13. Defense ministry seeks to secure new firing ranges for USFK

14. Russian help sought in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea

15. Kim Jong Un 'has official executed for importing Chinese medical kit'

16. JCS chairman heads to Hawaii for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

17. North Koreans blame China for their viral woes

18. US Defense Department to cautiously approach N. Korea policy

19. North Korea Bans Criticism of China and Prejudice Towards Ethnic Chinese Residents

20. North Korea Says it Won’t Make Chinese Wigs and False Eyelashes Once Trade Resumes

21. Limits of Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Lessons from the THAAD Dispute for South Korea's Foreign Policy

 

1. Moon out of step with Biden ahead of Korea-US summit

The Korea Times · April 28, 2021

 

I hope this reporting is inaccurate and I am sure it is.  Otherwise if accurate this is not a good sign:

"Currently, there seems to be no active communication channels between the allies unlike previously when Lee Do-hoon, the former special representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs, and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun actively exchanged opinions on bilateral issues."

2. US seizes Cameroon-flagged tanker for North Korea sanctions evasion

lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com · by Michelle Wiese Bockmann

I have not seen other reporting on this.  I looked through the Justice Department  web site and could not find any reference to it.

But here is the bruised lede: “Taiwan is the centre in a black market for fuel sold illicitly to North Korea according to a joint report by US international defence and security think tank Royal United Services Institute, and C4ADS into North Korean subterfuge shipping.

Nine of the 50 foreign-flagged tankers observed visiting North Korea via satellite imagery in 2020 accounted for a third of all petroleum delivered to the republic, according to the report.

 

3. 'Salami tactics' vs. roadmap (north Korea)

The Korea Times · by Ahn Ho-young · April 27, 2021

Key point from Ambassador Ahn: “To meet that goal, we have to augment the combined allied capability for the four Ds: deter, defeat, defend and dissuade. At the same time, any action which may be interpreted as undermining the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence should be avoided. The "way station" ideas may be interpreted as decoupling the security interests of the U.S. from that of Korea and Japan, and thus undermine the credibility of extended deterrence.”

I think it would be very much worth re-reading Steve Biegun's speech at Stanford in 2019. My guess is that there will be parallels if not specific ideas incorporated into the new Biden Administration policy.

Here is the link to the 17 page transcript of his speech and the Q&A: 

4. Police clash with protesters over deliveries to Thaad base

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja and Kim Jung-Seok

These US soldiers are living in terrible conditions because of the professional agitators who have radicalized the local citizens. These American soldiers are defending all of Korea from north Korean missile attack.  

The Korean government has to solve this and ensure routine logistics support can be provided to these soldiers.

Excerpts: “Over the past years, the protesters and police have been repeating their confrontations whenever U.S. and Korean militaries tried to make shipments into the base. In addition to the Feb. 25 scuffle, violent clashes also took place on Jan. 22 and Nov. 27, 2020.

While food and other lightweight goods are transported through helicopters, construction materials are moved by trucks. There is only one road to the base.

“Because of the delivery hardships, Korean and U.S. soldiers on the Thaad base are living inside shipping container homes, not barracks,” said a Defense Ministry source. Currently, about 400 Korean and American soldiers are stationed at the base.

 

5. North Korea’s Oil Procurement Networks

thediplomat.com · by Mercy A. Kuo · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “North Korea is completely dependent on foreign sources of fuel for its economy, military, and weapons program. The U.N. Security Council first imposed caps on North Korea’s fuel imports in 2017, but it has breached them every year since.

North Korea’s illicit oil supply chain relies on both foreign and North Korean tankers participating in a “shuttle system” in which fuel from onshore facilities is transferred over successive STS [ship-to-ship] transfers before being delivered directly to North Korea. Effectively, we’re seeing what anti-money laundering specialists call “layering” in financial transactions, where each successive step in the supply chain makes it harder for investigators to connect North Korea to the point of original sale on shore. Our analysis suggests that transnational smuggling syndicates orchestrate these complex deliveries, not only for North Korea but also for others in a vibrant regional black market for oil.

...

One of the leading institutions in this effort whose mission may benefit from greater information sharing and integration with publicly available information is the Enforcement Coordination Cell (ECC). The ECC is the multinational coalition led by the U.S. and its partner countries in the Five Eyes alliance (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the U.K.) as well as France, Japan, and South Korea that monitors DPRK maritime sanctions evasion, including tracking the tankers supplying illicit fuel to Pyongyang. The ECC generates a wealth of intelligence on fuel smuggling activities in the region, which should be regularly declassified to better inform non-member states (including China and Taiwan), the U.N., and stakeholders in the finance, shipping, and oil industries about the environment in which DPRK oil procurement networks operate. Given the complex and transnational nature of the problem, the flexibility offered by publicly available information can provide a powerful supplementary capability to governments to engage a broader range of stakeholders.

 

6. South Korea to push forward US-North Korea talks

The Korea Times · April 28, 2021

Again, I do not think the US needs a push.  I think the new Biden Administration Korea policy will call for talks.  The problem is Kim Jong-un who has refused to allow substantive working level talks for nearly three years.

However, I do not think President Biden (or any president) should meet with Kim until there is a substantive agreement worked out at the work level.  On the other hand I doubt very much Kim would agree to a summit without a concrete promise that the US will lift sanctions in return for the north's promise to talk. We must not lift sanctions unless and until Kim Jong-un takes verifiably steps toward denuclearization.

 

7. More verifiable data needed to consider publishing report on N.K. human rights situations: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 28, 2021

The recent US State Department report has a significant amount of data (). The Committee for Human RIghts in North Korea has a large amount of useful information and the State Department incorporates the committee's information into it report.

The problem is the ROKG is laboring under the misguided assumption that if it does not address north Korean human rights that it will be able to focus on the security situation and north-South engagement and it will cause Kim to somehow agree to negotiate in good faith.

 

8. Anti-China sentiment growing in Korea

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · April 28, 2021

China's actions reveal its true nature and the Korean people are seeing China for the bully and threat it really is.

 

9. Korea Must Not Kowtow to Chinese Bullying

english.chosun.com

China's true nature.

 

10. N. Korea conducts successful tests of reconnaissance and offensive-use "mini unmanned drones"

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 28, 2021

There should be no doubt of Kim's intention to improve his warfighting capabilities across the spectrum.  It is not just nuclear weapons and missiles.

 

11. Moon Must Stop Blaming Others for His Vaccine Failure

english.chosun.com

I think the press will be unrelenting in its vaccine criticism.

 

12. Amid growing signs of Sino-N. Korean trade restarting, Sinuiju customs office partially reopened

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · April 28, 2021

Excerpts: “The goods, however, have already been paid for by North Korean entities, which means that they are not considered “aid” from China.

Most of the goods are food items such as condiments, sugar, soybean oil, and flour – all products that witnessed price spikes in North Korea following the closure of the Sino-North Korean border in January 2020. Their import into North Korea will likely impact market prices for these items.

These goods will likely be sent to Pyongyang, Pyongsong, and other areas in the interior of the country after being transported through Sinuiju.

As such, it is likely that other types of Chinese food products being sold in North Korea will continue to trade at higher-than-normal prices for the time being.

Daily NK’s source also reported that the New Yalu River Bridge, which connects Dandong and Sinuiju, will open after June. “The road on the North Korean side is still unpaved,” he said, adding, “It appears [the authorities] will continue construction on the road.”

 

13. Defense ministry seeks to secure new firing ranges for USFK

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 28, 2021

This is critically important.  The north-South Comprehensive Military Agreement and civilian encroachment on training areas has reduced the ability of US forces to conduct adequate training to maintain certification and qualifications.  

A long term solution sounds good but what are we going to do to meet the current readiness requirements?

Excerpts: “In a report presented to the National Assembly, the ministry said that it will push to secure large-scale training sites as replacements of the existing ranges as part of its longer-term plan to resolve ongoing conflicts between the USFK and residents.

Those new sites would have "a buffer zone" to help minimize noise and safety concerns, it added.

 

14. Russian help sought in delivering COVID-19 vaccines to North Korea

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · April 28, 2021

 

15.  Kim Jong Un 'has official executed for importing Chinese medical kit'

Daily Mail · by Michael Havis · April 28, 2021

I guess this is one way to hold acquisition officials accountable. I wonder if acquisition reform is as hard in north Korea as it is in the US?

The true nature of the Kim family regime.  But what is interesting is that Chinese equipment is not good enough for Kim Jong-un.  It has to be European.

Also remember the hospital was supposed to be completed by last October.

 

16.  JCS chairman heads to Hawaii for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · April 28, 2021

Another positive development in the trilateral relationship.  If it was left up to the ROK, Japan, and US militaries there would be a very strong and effective trilateral military alliance.  But you cannot separate the politics, particularly the domestic politics, from the situation.

 

17. North Koreans blame China for their viral woes

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · April 27, 2021

For all those who really believe the PRC-DPRK alliance is closer than lips and teeth.

 

18.  US Defense Department to cautiously approach N. Korea policy

donga.com · April 27, 2021

DOD cannot get out ahead of the Administration.

 

19.  North Korea Bans Criticism of China and Prejudice Towards Ethnic Chinese Residents

rfa.org · Jeong Yon Park

Again there is no love between the Korean people and the Chinese.

 

20. North Korea Says it Won’t Make Chinese Wigs and False Eyelashes Once Trade Resumes

rfa.org  · Jieun Kim

 

21. Limits of Public Diplomacy and Soft Power: Lessons from the THAAD Dispute for South Korea's Foreign Policy

keia.org · Maximilian Ernst · April 26, 2021

The 13 page essay can be downloaded here

 

----------

 

“Since 1945 there has been no Third World War. The development of nuclear weapons may prevent such a catastrophe. In the two World Wars words were one of a variety of weapons in the armory of the belligerent powers. In future, because of the advent of nuclear weapons, words may be the only arms which the super-powers can employ without risking annihilation.”

-  Charles Roetter, The Art of Psychological Warfare, 1914-1945

 

“Discussion of psychological warfare remains controversial because reexamination of its record leads in short order to a heretical conclusion: The role of the United States in world affairs during our lifetimes has often been rapacious, destructive, tolerant of genocide, and willing to sacrifice countless people in the pursuit of a chimera of security that has grown ever more remote. Rethinking psychological warfare's role in communication studies, in turn, requires reconsideration of where contemporary Western ideology comes from, whose interests it serves, and the role that social scientists play in its propagation. Such discussions have always upset those who are content with the present order of things. For the rest of us, though, they permit a glimmer of hope.”

- Christopher Simpson, Science of Coercion: Communication Research and Psychological Warfare, 1945-1960

 

“The biggest wars are the wars of thought."

The Oldest Soldier

- Fritz Leiber, Night Monsters

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

 

1. Agenda at the coming ROK-US summit

donga.com · April 27, 2021

Interesting list of issues desired by the Korean public.

 

2. Sanctions and food shortages raise fears of North Korean famine

The Telegraph · by Russell Lynch,

I will continue to beat this horse. It is not sanctions that are causing the suffering. It is the deliberate policy decisions made by Kim Jong-un.

 

3. Biden Is Reviewing US Policy in North Korea. The Brutal Sanctions Must End.

truthout.org · by Simone Chun · April 26, 2021

No. It is the brutal dictatorship that must end. The sanctions are not brutal. Kim Jong-un could solve these problems if he chose to prioritize the welfare of the Korean people in the north over the nuclear and missile program, the military, and the regime elite.

 

4. U.S. must be ready to make concessions to N. Korea to advance denuclearization: lawmaker

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

With all due respect to Rep Kim: Concessions relief = appeasement. Concessions relief means success for Kim Jong-un's blackmail diplomacy, long con, and political warfare strategy. It means Kim Jong-un will simply double down on his strategy and tactics because he will assess they work.

 

5. Moon needs to show Biden what is possible to denuclearize N. Korea: Andy Kim

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 27, 2021

Rep. Kim seems to be making the same strategic assumptions that the Moon administration is making, namely, that Kim Jong-un shares President Moon's vision of a peace agenda. This fails to understand the true nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime which includes as the priority, the domination for the Korean peninsula under northern control to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime. 

 

6. Unification minister urges N. Korea to implement peace agreements on summit anniversary

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 27, 2021

This is simply another testament to the fact the Kim family regime has never executed any agreements in good faith.

 

7. Moon says time approaching for resuming dialogue with North Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 27, 2021

Why does President Moon put the onus on us? We have been willing to talk for the past three years and I am positive the new Biden Administration Korea policy will call for dialogue. It is Kim Jong-un who refuses to negotiate and instead continue his blackmail diplomacy to increase tensions, make threats, and conduct provocations to try to gain political and economic concessions.

 

8. South Korea's 'anti-leaflet law' a sign of alarming 'democratic decay,' Chris Smith warns

christianpost.com · by Emily Wood · April 26, 2021

Excerpt: "Co-chair of the Human Rights Commission, Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J., noted that South Korea's commitment to human rights "stands in stark contrast to the Kim family’s brutal dictatorship to the North in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Nevertheless, surveying the state of political and civil rights in the Republic of Korea, I must say that I am alarmed by … ‘South Korea’s democratic decay.’"

 

9. My close encounters with North Korea: Drifting perilously close to shore and Kim's 'night on the town'

9news.com.au · by Michael Smith

Some interesting anecdotes.

 

10. Falling in Love Again: U.S.-North Korean Relations and the Biden Administration

The National Interest · by William L. d’Ambruoso · April 26, 2021

Does international relations theory explain north Korea and the Kim family regime and can it guide us to securing our interests on the Korean peninsula?

Can trust be established among the players in Northeast Asia?

Conclusion: “Multiple foreign policy schools point in the same direction: We can live with a nuclear North Korea, possibly with higher levels of cooperation than before. It’s far too early to judge the Biden team’s approach, but to date, the administration is not showing very much creativity. Biden himself has refused to meet with Kim and has stipulated that any talks must be about denuclearization. Biden may be interested in a breakthrough, but it is difficult to see how this approach will produce one. Settling for a rerun of something akin to Obama’s strategic patience policy will put relations somewhere between the long U.S.-Cuba-style impasse and war. U.S. policymakers should strive for better.

If North Korea tests one of its missiles capable of reaching the U.S. homeland soon, critics will reiterate their fears that North Korea will be able to strike out in anger because now the United States will not be willing to risk San Francisco to protect Seoul. But the United States has faced this problem already, and on worse terms. From North Korea’s perspective, it makes no sense to attack more powerful neighbors in the faint hope that an even mightier foe will stand aside. As with the Soviet Union before it, North Korea will continue to have a strong interest in keeping the peace.

Near the end of the Cold War, Jervis wrote of U.S. nuclear policy, “Whether we like it or not, the common defense now extends to adversaries as well as to allies.” Nuclear weapons can sometimes be the tie that binds, and the United States must now be invested in the sanity, restraint, and fundamental comfort of Kim’s regime. In the long run, overlapping interests between North Korea and its current adversaries may grow, and denuclearization may follow or coincide. In the meantime, however, the United States should begin building trust on the thin slice of mutual concern in avoiding catastrophe. It’s a start.

 

11. Getting North Korea Back to the Table

democracyjournal.org ·Duyeon Kim · April 26, 2021

Some very useful recommendations from Duyeon Kim. Many are very sound and logical. The fourth one; however, should cause us to ask whether it is realistic given the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. But I do hope many of these are incorporated into the Biden Administration's Korea policy.

 

Recommendations:

Appoint an experienced envoy with clout who is empowered, has the President and secretary of state’s ear, and is in charge of negotiations and briefings. 

 

Recognize that everything is a negotiation that will take months and years

 

Be more deliberate, less reactive, and regularly test assumptions and cognitive biases. Be open to bold creative methods, surprises, and tactical adjustments. 

 

Seek to negotiate a comprehensive denuclearization-peace roadmap, or an initial deal first that explicitly agrees on end goals, based on an action-for-action incentive system.

 

Engage in proportionate bargains and avoid giving up too much too soon.

 

Regularly consult with allies and partners, and factor in implications for the region.

 

Establish a gray-zone strategy and impose penalties on all bad behavior. 

 

Prepare for crisis scenarios and black swans.

 

12. South Korean POW Who Was Held in North

East Asia Research

A short summary with some key points that are very interesting. It is sad to think that there may still be prisoners in the north suffering since the Korean War.

 

13. North Korea’s Economy Seen Barely Growing as Pandemic Pain Lasts

Bloomberg · by Sam Kim · April 26, 2021

Kim's policy decisions stymie growth.

 

14. Nonconformist Youn Yuh-jung: S. Korea's First Oscar-winning Actress

Barron's · by Claire LEE

Quite an impressive lady with an unique story of someone who beat the odds.

 

------------------

 

 

"And that's probably one of my biggest gripes with the Internet, that it settles for mediocrity and disinformation, which puts all information on the same level. Everything has the same value, whether it's Albert Einstein speaking, or yoohoo27@msn.com."

- Harlan Ellison

 

"Among all the world’s races…Americans are the most prone to misinformation...so much of what they believe is wrong."

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Ease of Tracking Mobile Phones of U.S. Soldiers in Hot Spots

2. The Spy in Your Pocket

3. We’ve Been Here Before: Learning From the Military’s History with White Nationalism

4. China’s Irregular Approach to War: The Myth of a Purely Conventional Future Fight

5. Intelligence and the Tyranny of Process

6. Spy chiefs look to declassify intel after rare plea from 4-star commanders

7. U.S. intelligence community to create center to address foreign malign influence

8. China and US to Send in New Ambassadors

9. China Raises Scrutiny on Companies With New Anti-Spying Rules

10. Pentagon Tracking 14 Cases of Heart Inflammation in Troops After COVID-19 Shots

11. No, SOCCENT Twitter wasn’t hacked as the command initially said

12. A Risky Bet? The U.S. Army of the Future Will Be Electric

13. Poll: Majority of Americans more concerned about voter access than ineligible voters

14. After Failures to Curb Sexual Assault, a Move Toward a Major Shift in Military Law

15. U.S. to share up to 60 million vaccine doses amid pressure to aid desperate countries

16. Addressing threats to U.S. national security

17. U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

18. American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

19. Opinion | Why The New York Times Is Retiring the Term ‘Op-Ed’

20. US could seek ‘expeditionary’ base deal with India

21. Are U.S. Bases in Asia Vulnerable to Chinese Missiles? Very.

22. OPINION: Suga-Biden summit: Rekindling confidence in the U.S.-Japan alliance

23. What are the Top 10 Sources of Threats to America?

24.  How to Think About Counterinsurgency After Afghanistan

25. US Army to Replace Criminal Investigations Chief In Wake of Guillen’s Death

26. How the Army uses the West Virginia wilderness to find out who has what it takes to join Delta Force

 

1. The Ease of Tracking Mobile Phones of U.S. Soldiers in Hot Spots

WSJ · by Byron Tau

COMSEC. Communications security.  Digital exhaust. The end of cell phone use for the troops?  All smart devices?  Anything that connects to the network?

 

2. The Spy in Your Pocket

cdrsalamander.substack.com · by CDR Salamander

 

3. We’ve Been Here Before: Learning From the Military’s History with White Nationalism

warontherocks.com · by Simone Askew, Jack Lowe, Nette Monaus, and Kirsten L. Cooper · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: "Finally, the most important lesson is that policy updates alone are ineffective without continued commitment from military and civilian leadership. It takes more than words. New, centralized bureaucratic structures, robust strategies, and better processes are needed to create a standardized mechanism for reporting and recording incidents of extremism within the military. The absence of this type of data collection has left military leaders without the information they need to even understand this problem. Our academic research team is working to remedy one aspect of this information deficiency by developing a historical database of incidents with confirmed ties to the military and white nationalism in the hopes of mapping past patterns of behavior and response. Our database is limited only to publicly reported incidents and currently has over 130 identified entries and over 300 cases found in de-identified reports, forming the largest single compilation of such incidents. Yet, based on recent reporting that the FBI opened 143 investigations into extremist activity among current and former military members in 2020 alone, our database and the public record capture only a small sliver of the true extent of the problem. Austin’s Feb. 5 memo called for a “concerted” and “sustainable” effort to “eliminate the corrosive effects … [of] extremist ideology.” The military can learn from its own history to make this call a reality."

 

4. China’s Irregular Approach to War: The Myth of a Purely Conventional Future Fight

mwi.usma.edu · by David Knoll · April 27, 2021

Yep what they said.  There seem to be many in the US military industrial complex who long for a 'simple" conventional force on force fight.  Probably a bad assumption.

As I have written:

America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them – namely the revisionist, rogue, and revolutionary powers and violent extremist organizations.

-With no apologies to Leon Trotsky

 

We will need to get the assumptions about warfighting right in the next NDS.

Conclusion: "Department of Defense leaders would do well to consider these threats as they refine US approaches to competition and warfighting. Irregular warfare should not be treated as a separate domain, specific to counterinsurgency and counterterrorism, segmented off and studied by a niche community of specialists. Instead, the full spectrum of irregular warfare capabilities should be part of adversary threat estimates and incorporated into large-scale conventional wargames. As the military services exercise their distributed concepts, they should anticipate that adversary forces will combine advanced ISR, long-range precision munitions, and irregular warfare activities to target US forces, allies, and partners operating within these constructs. Acknowledging the full scope of conflict will better prepare the US military for the modern irregular warfare concept that Chinese forces have already begun employing in great power competition."

 

5. Intelligence and the Tyranny of Process

mwi.usma.edu · by Addison McLamb · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: “In Greek mythology, Poseidon’s son Procrustes was oddly cruel: he invited guests to spend the night in a bed, then stretched their bodies (if too short) or cut off their legs (if too tall) to fit more perfectly. It is an infamously brutish illustration of the asinine tendency to force all things—irrespective of variety—to conform to one standard. In intelligence, solving different problems requires different methodologies, and trying to benchmark tactical problem solving to one deductive process hardens the analytical ceiling of MI soldiers. We have a deep bench of talented analysts—officer and enlisted alike—who are ready and willing to think hard in tackling the next wave of national security issues. The process to help them win might not be another process at all.

 

6. Spy chiefs look to declassify intel after rare plea from 4-star commanders

POLITICO  · April 26, 2021

I think the 4 stars have it right.

 

7. U.S. intelligence community to create center to address foreign malign influence

CBS News · by Olivia Gazis

A follow-on to the 4 star letter.  I think this could be a good development and a path forward for dealing with the malign influence.  As Sun Tu says: "Thus what is of supreme importance is. to attack the enemy's strategy."  In my mind the first step in attacking the enemy's strategy is to identify and expose it.  And in the information domain exposing the enemy's strategy who would come under its malign influence is an important line of defense.  The general public is the target of the much of the malign influence; therefore, they need to be provided the tools for self defense.  

 

9. China Raises Scrutiny on Companies With New Anti-Spying Rules

Bloomberg · by Bloomberg News · April 27, 2021

Mirror imaging?

Excerpts: “The regulation didn’t specify which industries or companies will be on the list, but it said the list will be drawn up based on the level of confidentiality that the industry involves, the degree of foreign involvement, and whether there have been previous incidents that endangered national security, according to Global Times.

To carry out anti-espionage missions and eliminate the hidden dangers of foreign espionage, the regulation also gives national security organs access to buildings, internal materials, electronic kits, facilities, or computers and information systems of the companies involved, the report said.

China’s state security authorities will make further efforts to “organize and mobilize all social forces to jointly prevent and curb espionage activities and other acts hurting national security to strengthen national security shield,” Xinhua said.

 

10. Pentagon Tracking 14 Cases of Heart Inflammation in Troops After COVID-19 Shots

military.com · by Patricia Kime · April 26, 2021

Uh oh. We just received our second Pfizer vaccination yesterday.  I wonder if these 14 had already been exposed to COVID before they received the vaccinations?

Excerpts: “The rare disorder, usually caused by a virus, has been linked to COVID-19. But following a number of reports from Israel of patients developing the inflammation in conjunction with receiving vaccines, the Israeli Health Ministry is exploring a possible link, Israel's Channel 12 reported Friday, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Myocarditis is an inflammation of the heart muscle, the myocardium, that can reduce the heart's ability to function or cause abnormal heart rhythms. The first report of myocarditis in a patient who received a COVID-19 vaccine was published in Israel on Feb. 1.

 

11. No, SOCCENT Twitter wasn’t hacked as the command initially said

militarytimes.com · by Howard Altman · April 26, 2021

The first report is always wrong.

 

12. A Risky Bet? The U.S. Army of the Future Will Be Electric

19fortyfive.com · by ByCaleb Larson · April 26, 2021

Conclusion: "Though the Army’s electric vehicle initiative is perhaps not quite as far along as they’d like, the Cohort Program could quickly change where the Army program currently is — either way, the Army of the future will be electric."

 

13. Poll: Majority of Americans more concerned about voter access than ineligible voters

NBC News · by Carrie Dann · April 27, 2021

Because most American support democracy.

 

14. After Failures to Curb Sexual Assault, a Move Toward a Major Shift in Military Law

The New York Times · by Jennifer Steinhauer · April 27, 2021

I am pretty sure we are going to see a major change to the UCMJ process in this area.

 

15.  U.S. to share up to 60 million vaccine doses amid pressure to aid desperate countries

The Washington Post  · by Tyler Pager, Annie Linskey and Emily Rauhala  · April 26, 2021

 

16. Addressing threats to U.S. national security

washingtontimes.com · by Joseph DeTrani

Excerpts: “One of the many strengths of our system is the transparency the public expects from our government to provide routine and timely updates on the status of the threats and how they are being managed. Also expected is a responsible media disseminating this information to the public.

...

These are just some of the national security issues affecting the U.S. Each impacts the well-being of all Americans. And that means the public has a need-to-know what the government is doing to address, mitigate and prevent these country-specific and transnational issues from affecting the security of the U.S.

The annual threat assessment from the intelligence community is an excellent annual summary of the international threats to the U.S. How the government is managing these threats should be the substance of a daily dialogue with the American people.

 

17. U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

WSJ · by Sabrina Siddiqui and Jessica Donati

Excerpts: “India’s epidemic also brought renewed focus on the disparity in vaccine access between developing countries and wealthier nations.

The new wave of infections in India, which began in March, came after a loosening of restrictions and brought fresh criticism toward Mr. Modi and his government for participating in large political rallies and encouraging mass religious gatherings even as cases were on the rise.

Mr. Modi’s government has also come under scrutiny for ordering Twitter Inc., Facebook Inc. and Instagram to block about 100 social-media posts criticizing its handling of the surge, prompting public anger and allegations of censorship.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that efforts by the Indian government to block social-media criticism “certainly wouldn’t be aligned with our view of freedom of speech around the world.”

U.S. to Share AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Doses With World

Biden administration to help India fight surge in coronavirus, readying oxygen shipments

 

18.  American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

WSJ · by Michael M. Phillips and Nancy A. Youssef

Excerpts: “Many Afghanistan vets are glad to see U.S. troops return home and the flow of casualties come to a stop. At the same time, they wonder if the blood and treasure were well spent in a war that, if not a loss, certainly wasn’t a victory.

Mr. Nicholas has confronted for years the ambivalence of such unsatisfying conclusions and allies left behind to face the consequences. “The same thing that happened in Vietnam is happening here,” said Mr. Nicholas, now 68 and living in Green, Ohio.

“They’ll say we accomplished great things,” he said. “I say we accomplished nothing.”

American Vets See Echoes of Vietnam in Afghanistan Withdrawal Plan

U.S. troops who fought in conflicts decades apart see their country leaving behind wars unfinished and allies to face the consequences.”

 

19.  Opinion | Why The New York Times Is Retiring the Term ‘Op-Ed’

The New York Times · by Kathleen Kingsbury · April 26, 2021

Excerpts: “That important mission remains the same. But it’s time to change the name. The reason is simple: In the digital world, in which millions of Times subscribers absorb the paper’s journalism online, there is no geographical “Op-Ed,” just as there is no geographical “Ed” for Op-Ed to be opposite to. It is a relic of an older age and an older print newspaper design.

So now, at age 50, the designation will be retired. Editorials will still be called editorials, but the articles written by outside writers will be known going forward as “Guest Essays,’’ a title that will appear prominently above the headline.

Op-Ed has had a great run. It became a standard for the rest of our industry, and enormously popular among readers and contributors alike. It’s hard now to recall that the original editors were actually nervous at its inception and worried whether anyone would be moved to contribute. But as an essay marking the page’s 20th birthday observed, “It was as if the Gray Lady had hit the dance floor.” Contributions poured in, and by its 40th, nearly 15,000 Op-Ed pages had been printed.

 

20. US could seek ‘expeditionary’ base deal with India

asiatimes.com · by MK Bhadrakumar · April 27, 2021

Excerpts: “Thus India would probably be the only remaining regional state in Washington’s consideration zone as a potential collaborator. No doubt, the US is in a desperate hurry as the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has commenced. The big question is whether the US is relenting on the vaccine front with a view to cutting a deal with India on Afghanistan.

The thought of it, of course, is very frightening. But if past experience is any guide, Washington has shown savviness to exploit India’s travails. A big step recently toward institutionalizing the Quad was possible only because of India’s border tensions with China.

However, Afghanistan is a “graveyard of empires.” The calculus of fratricidal wars keeps changing and India is best advised to steer clear of the Afghan civil war. Predicating any policy on the United States’ consistency is risky too.

Therefore, India should never contemplate a Faustian deal allowing Pentagon basing arrangements on its soil for the upcoming Afghan operations as quid pro quo for raw materials for the Covid-19 vaccine.

This should be delimited as a purely commercial transaction between the Indian vaccine manufacturing company and the US supplier of raw materials.

 

21. Are U.S. Bases in Asia Vulnerable to Chinese Missiles? Very.

The National Interest · by James Holmes · April 27, 2021

Conclusion: "So America needs to rediscover the habit of strategic humility after being top dog for a generation. Here’s what Indo-Pacific allies need to do: help us help you. Even if island-chain defense works out, U.S. reinforcements must gain access to the Western Pacific to prevail in wartime. PLA commanders have predicated their access-denial strategy on disheartening their U.S. counterparts or convincing the U.S. administration the military effort cannot succeed at a cost the country is prepared to pay. Allies and partners should devise strategies and operations that hold down the price of access for U.S. forces—and thus make it thinkable if not easy for an American president to order them into combat."

 

22. OPINION: Suga-Biden summit: Rekindling confidence in the U.S.-Japan alliance

KYODO NEWS · by Sayuri Rome and Scott W. Harold · April 26, 2021

Excerpts: “The April 16 summit signaled a substantial deepening in the U.S.-Japan alliance, highlighting important new areas of cooperation and a concrete agenda for U.S.-Japan relations. But major domestic and foreign policy issues remain that could distract from, or provide further impetus for, allied cooperation. Prior to the summit, both China and South Korea reacted strongly to Japan's announcement that it plans to release treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster into the Pacific Ocean. Japanese fishermen from the region also criticized the decision, arguing it would undermine market confidence in their products. Separately, at the post-summit press conference, Suga chose not to respond to a question about whether or not public health considerations would permit the country to follow through with hosting the Olympics this summer. A majority of the Japanese public remain opposed to holding the event. Despite the procurement of promises of additional supplies of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, several major Japanese cities have again been put under a state of emergency.

The U.S. issued a statement supporting Japan's approach to the disposal through dilution of the stored Fukushima wastewater, and Biden offered his personal support for Japan's "efforts to hold a safe and secure" Olympics this summer. Suga, whose domestic approval ratings remain low, has thus been able to draw substantial gains from the alliance, while Biden used it to answer the question of whether he might pursue a more China-centric foreign policy that prioritizes Beijing over Tokyo. Little wonder then that the latest polls show the Japanese public is overwhelmingly in favor of moves such as the two sides took this past week to continue strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance.

 

23. What are the Top 10 Sources of Threats to America?

The National Interest · by Jeff Allen · April 26, 2021

Transparency and informing the public are important for our national security.

 

24. How to Think About Counterinsurgency After Afghanistan

defenseone.com · by Steven Metz

The pendulum will swing. (again)

Conclusion: “How then should the United States think about counterinsurgency? In a word, realistically. First, Americans should admit that today’s terrorists do not need physical sanctuary, so trying to control every isolated patch of territory on earth is not worth the cost even if it could be done. Second, as heartbreaking as it would be to see evil movements like the Taliban, the Islamic State, or al Qaeda in control of all or part of a nation, the United States must base counterinsurgency support on the viability of the partner government, not the pathology of the insurgents. If a government is truly dedicated to altering the system that gave rise to insurgency and shares basic American values, it might deserve help. Otherwise, the United States should resist supporting a deeply flawed partner simply because its opponent is worse. This may ultimately be the most important strategic lesson of Afghanistan.

 

25. US Army to Replace Criminal Investigations Chief In Wake of Guillen’s Death

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp

 

26. How the Army uses the West Virginia wilderness to find out who has what it takes to join Delta Force

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

----------------

 

"And that's probably one of my biggest gripes with the Internet, that it settles for mediocrity and disinformation, which puts all information on the same level. Everything has the same value, whether it's Albert Einstein speaking, or yoohoo27@msn.com."

- Harlan Ellison

 

"Among all the world’s races…Americans are the most prone to misinformation...so much of what they believe is wrong."

John Kenneth Galbraith

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

 

An interview with Dr. Frances Brown, currently with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Pat Antonietti, the director for stabilization and peacekeeping operations policy in the Office of the Secretary Defense-Policy.

https://mwi.usma.edu/from-sar-to-gfa-the-abcs-of-conflict-prevention-and-stabilization/

This episode examines how the SAR and the GFA have fundamentally reshaped the way the US government conceives and responds to conflict around the world based on lessons learned from places like Afghanistan and Iraq. One of the SAR’s most important contributions when it was released in 2018 was the establishment of a common interagency-wide definition of stabilization. To wit, “a political endeavor to create the conditions where locally legitimate authorities and systems can peaceably manage conflict.” Meanwhile the GFA codified many of the principles articulated in the SAR into law and appropriated specific money to pilot evidence-based approaches to conflict prevention and stabilization. But as our guests argue, the impact of these initiatives is not only felt in terms of how we approach conflict, but also supports other policy priorities like great power competition with China.

Dr. Frances Brown is a senior fellow and codirector of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program. She previously served as director for democracy and fragile states on the White House National Security Council staff and managed stabilization and political transition programs in Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Africa for the US Agency for International Development’s Office of Transition Initiatives.

Pat Antonietti is the director for stabilization and peacekeeping operations policy in the Office of the Secretary Defense-Policy. Previously in OSD-Policy, Antonietti served as director for domestic counterterrorism, director for Middle East policy, and country director for Iraq. He is a retired Army officer, having served in multiple field artillery units in Germany, Kosovo, and Iraq, as well as serving as one of the first political-military planners for Afghanistan on the Joint Chiefs of Staff J5 after 9/11.

A discussion between the Commander of 1st Special Forces Group and the 1st Special Forces Command Chief of Staff on the role of Army SOF in INDOPACOM

COL Ed Croot, the 1st Special Forces Command (Airborne) Chief of Staff sits down with the 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne) Commander, COL Ryan Ehrler.  They discuss the importance of relationships spanning across the Indo-Pacific and why 1st SFG is "First in Asia".

Col. Ryan Ehrler is the commander of 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne), which is regionally-aligned with the INDOPACOM area of responsibility. A graduate of both the U.S. Naval War College and U.S. Army War College, Col. Ehrler previously served as 1st SFG(A)’s deputy commander and has numerous deployments across the Middle East, to include Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria, as well as North and West Africa.

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/03RAukqtc0BxeMQ5VKMpLR

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1st-special-forces-group-preferred-partners-in-indopacom/id1534621849?i=1000512619622 

(Also available on other podcast services, just search for "The Indigenous Approach")

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Supporting our Indian Partners

2. China launches app for citizens to report 'mistaken opinions'

3. Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

4. The Latest: Biden says US set on helping India with pandemic

5. Air Force Academy grads revolt against superintendent's 'both sides' position on violent extremism

6. Top US general in Afghanistan says military begins closing down operations

7. Xi Jinping: Master Of Strategy Or Deluded Autocrat? – Analysis

8. Diplomatic Posturing And The Power Game In Southeast Asia

9. Bring Back Education for Seapower

10. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 26, 2021 | SOF News

11. Options for a Dedicated Stability Operations Force Supporting Large Scale Combat Operations

12. Enough about ‘not picking sides.’ The only right position is against white supremacy and extremism

13. Was the Postwar U.S. International Order Truly Liberal?

14. War in All but Name

15. Special Operations Command blames hacker for tweet about Islamic State, Afghanistan

16. U.S. military’s appetite for information fueling demand for space technology

17. Interests, Not Values, Should Guide America’s China Strategy

18. China’s surprising drone sales in the Middle East

19. FDD | Why the Russia-China Alignment Is So Worrisome

 

1. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Supporting our Indian Partners

defense.gov · April 25, 2021

 

2. China launches app for citizens to report 'mistaken opinions'

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · April 19, 2021

 

3.  Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “China stakes a territorial claim over essentially the entire body of water. Relying on voyages of the admiral Zheng He from the 1600s, China in the 1940s delineated what it calls the “Nine-Dash Line,” a maritime boundary within which it maintains the fiction of sovereignty. This is disputed by virtually every other nation in the region (many of whom have overlapping and competing claims with not only China, but each other as well). An international court largely dismissed the overarching Chinese claim in 2016.

As China plays the long game to consolidate control, it is building artificial islands. These are mostly in areas with promising oil and gas fields in the sea’s southern reaches and around the Spratly Islands, which are themselves disputed between several of the nations. There are seven completed islands, all militarized and some with airfields, but nobody thinks Beijing will stop there.

...

How great are the chances of such a multi-ocean military conflict between the two superpowers and their allies? Far, far lower than the likelihood of a flare-up in the Taiwan Strait or East China Sea. But much as Europe stumbled into World War I because of extensive networks of alliances, it is entirely possible a war in the western Pacific could bring conflict to Indian waters.

It would have been hard for young Ensign Stavridis to imagine any of this while sailing across the Pacific in the 1970s — but alliances have significantly shifted, even if geography has not.

 

4. The Latest: Biden says US set on helping India with pandemic

mercurynews.com · by Associated Press · April 25, 2021

And other COVID information around the world.

 

5. Air Force Academy grads revolt against superintendent's 'both sides' position on violent extremism

Raw Story · by Bob Brigham · April 24, 2021

 

6. Top US general in Afghanistan says military begins closing down operations

militarytimes.com · by Kathy Gannon · April 25, 2021

 

7. Xi Jinping: Master Of Strategy Or Deluded Autocrat? – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by IWPR · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “China’s most dominant ruler since Mao Zedong doesn’t set much store on being loved by foreigners. He looks happy to settle for fear or respect, and in many parts of the world, from Africa, Southeast Asia and parts of Latin America and the Balkans, he’s already succeeded.

But for all his gains, including closer partnerships with Iran and Russia, Xi’s aggressive posture often appears reckless, alerting leaders from Washington and Brussels to Hanoi and Delhi to a new and pressing danger.

Certainly, China’s pugnacious territorial claims in the East and South China Seas have breathed fresh life into the Quad, the security forum in the Indian and Pacific oceans that brings together the United States, Japan, India and Australia.

But analysts caution that Western politicians are in danger of a profound misunderstanding if they try to assess Beijing’s national security strategy on the same terms as those in democratic countries.

 

8. Diplomatic Posturing And The Power Game In Southeast Asia

eurasiareview.com · by Eurasia Review · April 25, 2021

A new fleet? 365 day presence?

Conclusion: "The US needs to designate a dedicated naval fleet for the South China Sea, so it has a constant presence 365 days a year. This would limit the influence of China in the region, restore the symmetry of trade relations to some extent and stop the undue exploitation of smaller states by the People’s Republic of China. Naval cooperation and joint exercises in the South China Sea challenge China in particular when French and Canadian navies are involved. Quad and Quad-plus like cooperation is the way forward, however, this could lead to catastrophe if maritime management systems and communications channels are not established. China has to adjust to the presence of an extra-regional power in the South China Sea, and the US and allies have to work to keep China’s assertive behaviour at bay while avoiding accidental conflict."

 

9. Bring Back Education for Seapower

usni.org · by Mark R. Folse · April 20, 2021

All services need to increase investment in education.

There is some truth to this statement. When I was the chief of SF officer assignments more officers wanted to go to Newport than any other school and more senior leaders weighed in to recommend officers go to Newport due to the respect for its excellent education program.

Excerpt: "The Navy sends junior officers into higher echelon programs, and staff corps officers (dentists and chaplains) to the war colleges instead of surface warfare officers and aviators. It has been said as a joke that “the Naval War College is the school to which every branch but the Navy sends its best and brightest.”

 

10. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 26, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 26, 2021

 

11. Options for a Dedicated Stability Operations Force Supporting Large Scale Combat Operations

divergentoptions.org · by Kevin Maguire · April 26, 2021

Stability operations are inherent long term. Would such a force be committed for the duration? (Plus six months such as enlistments in WWII - the duration plus 6 months). Or to sustain the force over time would it take "three to make one?" Would we need a force that is three times the projected size in order to sustain long duration operations? Wouldn't that be a huge drain on service end strength?

 

12. Enough about ‘not picking sides.’ The only right position is against white supremacy and extremism

airforcetimes.com · by Esteban Castellanos · April 24, 2021

 

13. Was the Postwar U.S. International Order Truly Liberal?

theimaginativeconservative.org · by Andrew Latham · April 25, 2021

The post WWII liberal order: more imperial than liberal?

A review of two books.

 

14.  War in All but Name

thestrategybridge.org · by Derek S. Bernsen · April 26, 2021

Key point that we must understand and embrace: "Information warfare provides the perfect mechanism to erode U.S. power without resorting to direct conflict."

Conclusion: “Finally, the Department of Defense needs to continue to grow its cyber force. U.S. Cyber Command has come a long way in demonstrating its value, conducting operations, and even helping the information security community through malware disclosures.[41] This momentum needs to be seized upon. As U.S. Cyber Command continues to hone its craft, it needs to start integrating with the more traditional parts of the military. Special Operations Forces are the obvious first candidate for integrating with cyber operations. Special Operations personnel are already asked to do more than the average unit and often are the first to experiment with new technology. The innovative and can-do mindset present in these units combined with the many unique skills and cross-training these units receive creates the perfect environment for the military to experiment with cyber and kinetic operations integration. Add in Special Operations’ history of psychological operations and influence campaigns which are already considered Information Warfare, and cyber becomes the logical next step for bringing the force into the future. Eventually the U.S. will need to realize the goal of integrating cyberspace operations with every operational branch of the military from infantry and armor, to ships, aircraft, and spacecraft. Furthermore, retired Admiral James Stavridis articulates the argument for a separate cyber branch of the military.[42]

While the U.S. is already at war, if it can incorporate and prioritize these four actions in the new National Security Strategy it will be significantly better positioned to compete, defend, and fight with information warfare. Adversaries will avoid a direct conflict and instead seek to leverage information warfare to undermine the U.S. and gain a dominant global position. A strategy enabling the U.S. to fight back must incorporate the rebuilding of the United States Information Agency, lessons from Estonia, incentivize the overhaul of our legacy systems, and fully integrate cyberspace operations throughout the military.

 

15. Special Operations Command blames hacker for tweet about Islamic State, Afghanistan

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · April 25, 2021

 

16. U.S. military’s appetite for information fueling demand for space technology

spacenews.com · by Sandra Erwin · April 25, 2021

 

17. Interests, Not Values, Should Guide America’s China Strategy

The National Interest · by Elbridge Colby · April 25, 2021

It cannot be either/or. It must be both/and in my opinion.

Values based approach excerpt: “The problem is that this approach will almost certainly disappoint and, if resolutely pursued, risks weakening U.S. links with many of the very countries that will be most key to confronting China—many of which are not democracies or are considered only “partly free” by institutions such as Freedom House. The basic flaw in this now ascendant U.S. approach is twofold. First, it mislocates the decisive arena of competition with China. The results of the competition with China will not primarily be determined by global political institutions and perceptions of our respective political systems but rather chiefly by the balance of hard economic and military power, especially in Asia. Second, it misidentifies the main reason countries will or will not collaborate with Washington vis-à-vis China. Exaggerating the role of “values” and ideology in international politics, it inherently downplays the salience of security and economic interests. This leads to an over-expectation of what democracies, especially in Europe, will do, while discounting the central importance of what other states, especially in Asia, need to do.

​Conclusion: “AMERICA NEEDS its allies to do more. That much is clear. The question now is how. The idea of a league of democracies is a stirring answer, but is very likely to be more inspirational than consequential. Washington must instead found its efforts with allies and partners on sturdier, if perhaps lower, ground—that of common interest. With this approach, America can collaborate with a wide variety of different types of states in differing arrangements, bound together by shared fears and organizing based on aligned interests. America can and should still stand for freedom, decent treatment, and republican government, but within the constraints and logic of this overarching interest-based approach—not as a primary driver of U.S. strategy. This approach may move hearts less, but it is more likely to move mind and muscle—and ultimately to better protect Americans’ own freedom and prosperity as well as the autonomy of other countries to chart their own futures free of another’s domination.

​

18. China’s surprising drone sales in the Middle East

Defense News · by Bradley Bowman, Jared Thompson, and Ryan Brobst · April 23, 2021

 

19.  FDD | Why the Russia-China Alignment Is So Worrisome

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · April 23, 2021

 

----------------

 

"That priceless galaxy of misinformation called the mind."

- Djuna Barnes

 

"The lowest form of popular culture—lack of information, misinformation, disinformation, and a contempt for the truth or the reality of most people's lives—has overrun real journalism. Today, ordinary Americans are being stuffed with garbage."

-Carl Bernstein

 

"Beware a majority when mentally poisoned with misinformation, for collective ignorance does not become wisdom."

-William J.H. Boetchker

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US adjusts internal disagreements on North Korea policy

2. Korea's dilemma deepens over joining US-led Quad network

3. Pyongyang- Beijing border looks set to reopen

4. Pope expresses willingness to visit N. Korea

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus efforts amid increasing activities in spring season

6.  Sordid End to Trump and Moon's Publicity Stunts

7. North Korea is currently recruiting laborers to send to construction sites abroad

8. Samsung, Hyundai prepare massive US investments ahead of Moon-Biden summit

9. No breakthrough for inter-Korean ties on 3rd anniversary of Panmunjeom declaration

10. 'Vaccine swap' tops poll about Moon-Biden meeting

11. Moon decries int'l hoarding of vaccines

12. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation in forestry sector

13. Korea, China not in talks over Quad alliance: Defense Ministry

14. N. Korea technically equipped to hold video summit with S. Korea: official

15. Illegal fishing from Chinese boats rises threefold this month (Korea)

 

1. US adjusts internal disagreements on North Korea policy

The Korea Times · April 26, 2021

Moderates versus hardliners?

Excerpts: “The U.S. president was expected to complete the review as early as this month, given that the White House released its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance for this year in March. But Jalina Porter, the U.S. State Department's principal deputy spokeswoman, said Friday (local time), that there was no specific timeline for the review.

...

"While hard-liners say that Washington should raise pressure on North Korea by increasing sanctions, those who favor moderate strategies say that they should negotiate with Pyongyang first while freezing sanctions at the current level," Cha said.

...

"From the perspective of the South Korean government, the most controversial problem is the U.S. pressure and siege strategy against China, with Washington unfolding a very big umbrella of partnering with countries in the region," Hong said.

"For the South Korean government, the situation would be difficult if Washington deals with democracy and human rights issues in China and North Korea at the same time, as this would strengthen ties between the socialist countries."

Hong said if North Korea resumes military provocations in such a situation, there will be little room left for South Korea's diplomacy.

"Seoul should make diplomatic efforts to deliver a message that Washington should deal with the issues of China and North Korea separately," he said.

Meanwhile, a summit between President Moon Jae-in and Biden is slated for late next month.

 

2. Korea's dilemma deepens over joining US-led Quad network

The Korea Times  · Jung Da-min · April 25, 2021

Pressuring Seoul to join the Quad will be counterproductive. Seoul must join the Quad because it has determined it is in its best interest to do so.

Excerpt: “Despite the presidential office's denial, diplomatic observers say that Seoul has been under growing pressure from the U.S. to join the Quad. But they also say that the South Korean government should take a flexible stance on the matter, because joining the Quad network could become a thorny diplomatic issue between Seoul and Beijing. The Korean government has been reluctant to join the Quad due to China being Seoul's largest-trading partner.

 

3. Pyongyang- Beijing border looks set to reopen

donga.com· April 26, 2021

Will this be enough to relieve suffering substantially?

 

4. Pope expresses willingness to visit N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 26, 2021

There is no doubt we need a miracle on the Korean peninsula.

I do worry such a visit would be exploited by the north to counter the allegations of human rights abuses in the north.

 

5. N. Korea tightens antivirus efforts amid increasing activities in spring season

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 26, 2021

Still reporting no COVID cases.

 

6.  Sordid End to Trump and Moon's Publicity Stunts

english.chosun.com

Perhaps clickbait headline but it is a scathing critique: “But they were busy chasing photo ops rather than focusing on the North's denuclearization. Cheong Wa Dae knowingly exaggerated Kim's willingness to scrap his nuclear weapons and used that distorted information to lure Trump into yet another summit in Hanoi, and at the same time it lied to Kim that the U.S. would make massive concessions on international sanctions. When the two leaders realized that they had both been sold a dud, the summit collapsed and all communication was severed.

But along the way, the vital U.S.-South Korean joint military exercises became a sacrificial lamb, and they did not resume even after North Korea made it clear it had absolutely no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons and wanted nothing more to do with Trump or Moon.

The new U.S. President Joe Biden has already said that Trump's meetings with Kim were just for TV, and the White House said Biden has no plans to meet Kim. That prompted Moon to accuse Biden of making a mistake and urge him to "build on" what Trump "has left." The Moon administration still for some reason thinks that another photo op with North Korea can miraculously be brought about and will magically save its sinking ship. This just shows how removed from reality it has become.”

 

7. North Korea is currently recruiting laborers to send to construction sites abroad

dailynk.com · April 26, 2021

I believe this would be a violation of the UN Security Council Resolution prohibiting overseas slave labor. We should proactively and preemptively engage target countries for these workers and remind them of their responsibility under the UNSCR and request they not provide visas for these workers. Of course Qatar would probably be the only one. I doubt we will have much success with China, Russia, and Iran but they should be called out for violating UNSCRs.

 

8. Samsung, Hyundai prepare massive US investments ahead of Moon-Biden summit

The Korea Times · April 26, 2021

 

9. No breakthrough for inter-Korean ties on 3rd anniversary of Panmunjeom declaration

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · April 26, 2021

One truism about Korea - there will be no "breakthrough" (as long as Kim Jong-un is in power).

 

10. 'Vaccine swap' tops poll about Moon-Biden meeting

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Park Eun-Jee · April 26, 2021

I doubt this will be an agenda item. It would be a waste for President Moon to make this a top agenda item.

 

11. Moon decries int'l hoarding of vaccines

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Sarah Kim and Park Hyung-Ju · April 26, 2021

Not helpful.  

Excerpts: “Addressing the issue of tight coronavirus vaccine supplies, Moon continued, “We must face the reality of such cold international politics.”

 The remarks appeared to be an explanation for Korea's delays in getting vaccine supplies.

While Moon did not specifically mention Washington by name, the United States is responsible for restrictions on vaccine exports as it hastens its own inoculation program. 

 In contrast, Moon praised Beijing for its donations of Covid-19 vaccines in a video message for China's Boao Forum for Asia on April 20.”

 

12. Unification minister calls for inter-Korean cooperation in forestry sector

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 26, 2021

The Minister is reaching for any initiative. He is desperate for any kind of engagement.

 

13. Korea, China not in talks over Quad alliance: Defense Ministry

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · April 26, 2021

Nor should they be. The PRC should not get a vote in ROK foriegn policy, national security, and defense policy

 

14. N. Korea technically equipped to hold video summit with S. Korea: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 26, 2021

Capability yes. Intent to engage? Probably not.

 

15. Illegal fishing from Chinese boats rises threefold this month (Korea)

Koreanjoongangdaily.com · by Park Hyun-Ju and Michael Lee · April 26, 2021

More examples of Chinese malign activities.

 

----------------

 

"That priceless galaxy of misinformation called the mind."

- Djuna Barnes

 

"The lowest form of popular culture—lack of information, misinformation, disinformation, and a contempt for the truth or the reality of most people's lives—has overrun real journalism. Today, ordinary Americans are being stuffed with garbage."

-Carl Bernstein

 

"Beware a majority when mentally poisoned with misinformation, for collective ignorance does not become wisdom."

-William J.H. Boetchker

Access SOF News HERE. 

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. Topics include jetpacks for SOF, EOD tech training, UK SOF, Russia’s Unit 29155 (GRU), Operation Foxley, IW, advising foreign air forces, border crisis, MDO, GPC, the Arctic region, and upcoming SOF events.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life

2. The big Pentagon internet mystery now partially solved

3. Opinion | We Got Afghanistan Wrong, but There’s Still Time to Learn Something

4. Malcolm Gladwell on the Hard Decisions of War (Book review by Tom Ricks)

5. Is Indonesia ready to tackle the growing challenge of female militants?

6. Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses

7. Opinion: CIA Agents in Thailand, Please Raise Your Hand

8. MI6 begins 'green spying' on big polluting countries

9. Chris Maier Nominated for ASD SO/LIC | SOF News

10. Why is Germany sending a frigate through the South China Sea? 

11. Trump Blazed a Trail That Clears the Way for Biden

12. Kennan’s Containment Strategy: A Consensus on What Not to Do by Robert D. Kaplan

13. Some Right-Wing Troops Find Themselves Targeted by Their Own War Machine

14. Target Taiwan: Why China Is Desperate for Control of Taipei

15. As a military spouse, I suffered real and often debilitating secondary traumatic stress

16. Opinion | The Two Crises of Conservatism

17. America Never Wanted the Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses

18. Billion-Dollar Army Housing Project Begins Next Week at Five Bases

19. Tribes Want Medals Awarded for Wounded Knee Massacre Rescinded

20. A hybrid future may seem like the best of both worlds for work and life

21. The girl in the Kent State photo and the lifelong burden of being a national symbol

 

1. Minutes before Trump left office, millions of the Pentagon’s dormant IP addresses sprang to life

The Washington Post · April 24, 2021

Seems interesting but I am not smart enough to understand the implications and the pros and cons of this, or whether there is something nefarious here or if this is important for national security and defense.

Is this just a clickbait headline?

Excerpts: “Russell Goemaere, a spokesman for the Defense Department, confirmed in a statement to The Washington Post that the Pentagon still owns all the IP address space and hadn’t sold any of it to a private party.

Dormant IP addresses can be hijacked and used for nefarious purposes, from disseminating spam to hacking into a computer system and downloading data, and the pilot program could allow the Defense Department to uncover if those activities are taking place using its addresses.

A person familiar with the pilot effort, who agreed to speak on the condition of anonymity because the program isn’t public, said it is important for the Defense Department to have “visibility and transparency” into its various cyber resources, including IP addresses, and manage the addresses properly so they will be available if and when the Pentagon wants to use them.

 

2. The big Pentagon internet mystery now partially solved

AP · by Frank Bajak

And I thought Al Gore created the Internet.

Excerpt: "Despite an internet address crunch, the Pentagon — which created the internet — has shown no interest in selling any of its address space, and a Defense Department spokesman, Russell Goemaere, told the AP on Saturday that none of the newly announced space has been sold.

 

3. Opinion | We Got Afghanistan Wrong, but There’s Still Time to Learn Something

Politico · by Jason Dempsey · April 25, 2021

We should have ended the mission with the punitive expedition and then turned it over to the new Afghan political leaders. And the pottery barn rule was misapplied.

Second, since we stayed on for the subsequent missing we should have followed this "principle:" "Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it. Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if it is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities." 

Excerpts: “It will be painful to watch the devolution of the Afghan military, but the idea that this military is not already fractured is an illusion.

The loyalties of Afghan military officers have never neatly mapped onto the chain of command structure that we copy-and-pasted from our own military doctrine, but lie with either the politicians who got them their jobs or the tribes and ethnic groups that have sustained them through nearly forty years of fighting. As Ryan Evans and others have been suggesting since at least 2012, the fragmentation of the ANSF has never been a question of if, but when and, more important for our interests — how. So instead of ignoring these organic power structures in the hope that they will naturally go away, we must use the limited time we have left to back away and give them space to surface, identify those most aligned with our interests and provide them the support that fits their needs, not our ideals.

The American military feels naked without our watches, but with the Taliban we have seen what a force can do without them. As we withdraw we should trust and support our Afghan counterparts to do the same.

 

4. Malcolm Gladwell on the Hard Decisions of War (Book review by Tom Ricks)

 

The New York Times · by Thomas E. Ricks · April 25, 2021

Excerpts: “A novelty of this book is that Gladwell says it began as an audiobook and then became a written one, reversing the usual process. It is indeed a conversational work, almost garrulous at times, as when he reports that one psychologist “has a heartbreaking riff about what one member of a couple will often say when the other one dies — that some part of him or her has died along with the partner.” However, this chatty style also glides over some important historical questions.

Gladwell is a wonderful storyteller. When he is introducing characters and showing them in conflict, “The Bomber Mafia” is gripping. I enjoyed this short book thoroughly, and would have been happy if it had been twice as long. But when Gladwell leaps to provide superlative assessments, or draws broad lessons of history from isolated incidents, he makes me wary. Those large conclusions seemed unsubstantiated to me. Was Henry Stimson, Franklin Roosevelt’s secretary of war, truly “responsible, more than anyone, for the extraordinary war machine that the United States built in the early years of the Second World War”? It certainly is arguable that others, like Gen. George C. Marshall, were just as important, but Gladwell simply tosses out the claim about Stimson and hurries on. Another example: Gladwell calls the firebombing of Tokyo on March 9 and 10, 1945, “the longest night of the war.” This unfortunate phrase, this unproven superlative, is repeated in the book’s unwieldy subtitle. I immediately thought, Oh yeah? What about the sailor whose ship is torpedoed and who hangs from debris in the water with no chance of rescue? Or the soldier in a minefield whose buddy is bleeding to death? What of the infinitely long nights of millions of concentration camp prisoners?

 

5. Is Indonesia ready to tackle the growing challenge of female militants?

aseantoday.com · April 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Some analysts say that the fact that women’s perspectives are missing from Indonesia’s counterterrorism approach indicates a major policy failure. “At the BNPT, for example, there are no women at the [decision-making] level, so it is difficult to have a woman’s perspectives,” Dwi Rubiyanti Kholifa, director of the Asian Muslim Action Network (AMAN), told BenarNews.

Officials working at the BNPT “don’t have a gender perspective in their analysis,” she added.

Male experts working at the BNPT don’t seem to understand that “some women carry out a terrorist attack for penance, some for recognition, some for a sense of empowerment, while some were driven by gender injustice and inequality,” Dwi said.

“Women are increasingly important [for militant groups] because of the absence of men who have been arrested or have died,” Wawan Hari Purwanto, a deputy at Indonesia’s State Intelligence Agency (BIN) said.

 

6. Wuhan lab helped Chinese army in secret project to find animal viruses

Daily Mail · by Ian Birrell · April 24, 2021

Smoking gun or sensational reporting?

 

7. Opinion: CIA Agents in Thailand, Please Raise Your Hand

khaosodenglish.com · April 24, 2021

I wish we were good enough and smart enough to have an intelligence asset (if not an intelligence officer spotting , assessing, and recruiting intelligence assets) in a country for 35 years.

 

8. MI6 begins 'green spying' on big polluting countries

The Telegraph · by Jack Hardy

Excerpts: “He indicated that British spies will make China the focus of much of their climate-related espionage by pointing out that Beijing is “certainly the largest emitter” of carbon.

“Our job is to shine a light in places where people might not want it shone and so clearly we are going to support what is the foremost international foreign policy agenda item for this country and for the planet, which is around the climate emergency, and of course we have a role in that space,” he told Times Radio.

“Where people sign up to commitments on climate change, it is perhaps our job to make sure that what they are really doing reflects what they have signed up to.”

 

9. Chris Maier Nominated for ASD SO/LIC | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 24, 2021

I do not know him. He seems to have a strong CT background. Will he embrace the two SOF trinities?

SOF Trinities: 

1. Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, Support to Political Warfare

2. Comparative advantage of SOF: Influence, Governance, Support to Indigenous Forces and Populations 

(while maintaining exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions)

 

10. Why is Germany sending a frigate through the South China Sea? 

SCMP  · by Arnaud Boehmann · April 20, 2021

Really? "But Berlin is not trying to intimidate Beijing. Its real message is for Germany’s regional allies – Japan, Australia and the US "

 

11. Trump Blazed a Trail That Clears the Way for Biden

Bloomberg · by Noah Smith · April 20, 2021

Excerpts: “Trump’s break with orthodoxy wasn’t complete, of course. In many ways he governed as a typical Republican, cutting taxes and regulation and increasing work requirements for welfare programs. But on trade and industrial policy, he blazed a trail by neutering his own party’s opposition to change. On these topics, a fair number of conservative think tanks and politicians are joining the bandwagon.

Perhaps that’s how big policy changes ultimately happen. Carter won’t go down in history as the great champion of deregulation, nor Hoover of big government. And if Biden ultimately succeeds in reorienting American economic policy away from free trade in a systematic and effective manner, he’ll likely be the one who gets associated with that shift by future generations. But it was Trump’s stumbling, erratic approach that paved the way.

 

12. Kennan’s Containment Strategy: A Consensus on What Not to Do

The National Interest · by Robert D. Kaplan · April 24, 2021

A very long read.  

A depressing conclusion for all of us who hope for a US grand strategy. But we must grasp this: "an implicit understanding of what the American people can tolerate and what they can afford.""

Conclusion: "GIVEN ALL of this, the possibilities of creating unity around a grand strategy tied to American national interests are rather small. Kennan’s clubby world is gone forever. However, there does exist a substantial community of defense and security experts oriented around the Pentagon, that still use “we” instead of “they” when referring to Americans. This defense community is sufficiently homogeneous in its goals and values, despite the many differences of opinion within it, because there is an overriding assumption in this community that U.S. interests should be primary and that America faces a variety of new and old threats that must be countered. In Kennan’s day, the primary threat was the Soviet Union and world communism. In this new era, the primary threat is China and its particular brand of authoritarianism, mixed as it is with high-technology surveillance and economic and military aggression. China has gone from a post-Mao enlightened authoritarianism which the American business, policy, and media establishments tolerated and were somewhat comfortable with, to becoming a sharp-edged dictatorship under one man, Xi Jinping, armed with a cult of personality. The dream of gradually luring China into a post-Cold War, made-in-America system of globalization is over. This new China represents a stark and unambiguous threat. Like Kennan’s Long Telegram and X article, a successful grand strategy towards China should describe the root of the problem, the sources of Chinese regime behavior, and lay out a plan emphasizing what not to do. Concentrating on what not to do will eliminate extreme viewpoints, and identify practical constraints on our China policy: constraints originating, as with Kennan’s containment theory, with an implicit understanding of what the American people can tolerate and what they can afford."

 

13.  Some Right-Wing Troops Find Themselves Targeted by Their Own War Machine

The Intercept · by Mike Giglio · April 25, 2021

We have to get this counter-extremism in the military right otherwise we risk playing right into the extremists' narratives and radicalizing even greater numbers than the very small number that already exists and harming, perhaps irrepairably, the good order and discipline of the military.

 

14.  Target Taiwan: Why China Is Desperate for Control of Taipei

The National Interest · by Patrick Mendis and Joey Wang · April 24, 2021

Conclusion: “Indeed, the defense of Taiwan is more than symbolic for the United States and its overall commitment to Asia. Retreating from this commitment will not only mean irreversible damage to U.S. credibility, but it will also validate Beijing’s belief of an America in decline, and that the United States is on its own way to a “century of humiliation.”

 

15.  As a military spouse, I suffered real and often debilitating secondary traumatic stress

Stars and Stripes

Consider this.

 

16. Opinion | The Two Crises of Conservatism

The New York Times · by Ross Douthat · April 24, 2021

Excerpts: “But that might not be enough. In the end, conservatives need to believe the things they love can flourish within the liberal order, and it isn’t irrational to turn reactionary if things you thought you were conserving fall away.

So the question for the right isn’t one of commitment, but capacity. Can conservative energies be turned away from fratricide and lib-baiting and used to rebuild the structures and institutions and habits whose decline has pushed the right toward crisis? And will liberal institutions, in their increasingly ideological form, allow or encourage that to happen, or stand permanently in its way?

In prior columns I’ve stressed how the weakness of conservatism makes it hard to imagine a successful right-wing insurrection or coup against the liberal order.

But weakness has rippling consequences too, and a conservatism defined by despair and disillusionment could remain central to liberalism’s crises for many years to come.

 

17.  America Never Wanted the Tired, Poor, Huddled Masses

The Atlantic · by Caitlin Dickerson · April 5, 2021

A short history of US immigration that most do not want to think about.

Excerpts: “In describing its own immigration plan as a racial-equity initiative, the Biden administration is nodding at a more complex view of our history. But opposition to the proposal, predictably, has echoed the past. Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas called it “a disaster” that “does nothing to secure our borders, yet grants mass amnesty, welfare benefits … to over 11 million people.” On Fox News, Laura Ingraham said that Democrats pushing for the plan were “enticing illegals to bust through our borders, exploit our resources, and commit crimes.”

Once you begin to notice examples of how the past is still present, they become difficult to ignore. Trump enacted the most stringent border closure of his administration by citing the threat of disease, even though COVID‑19 outbreaks were far worse inside the United States than just outside its borders (in fact, Americans were actively deporting the virus abroad). His persistent blaming of the Chinese for outbreaks in the U.S. helped incite violence against Asian Americans that continues today, mirroring similar attacks from centuries past.

In moving toward the more inclusive system that some elected officials now say they want, the country would be not returning to traditional American values, but establishing new ones.

 

18. Billion-Dollar Army Housing Project Begins Next Week at Five Bases

military.com · by Rose L. Thayer · April 24, 2021

 

19. Tribes Want Medals Awarded for Wounded Knee Massacre Rescinded

The New York Times · by Mark Walker · April 23, 2021

 

20. A hybrid future may seem like the best of both worlds for work and life

Axios · by Bryan Walsh

Consider the future of work post pandemic.

 

21. The girl in the Kent State photo and the lifelong burden of being a national symbol

The Washington Post · by Patricia McCormick · April 19, 2021

A story behind the story that I did not know. I was around the same age as she was and I had no idea of her age from the photo. I wonder why the author did not mention Neil Young's song "Ohio" (with the line "four dead in Ohio"). I remember being taught the song by the college camp counselors at wrestling camp a year or two later. I wonder how she feels every time she hears that song today.

 

----------------

 

"The speed of communications is wondrous to behold. It is also true that speed can multiply the distribution of information that we know to be untrue."

- Edward R. Murrow

 

"As long as anger, paranoia and misinformation drive our political debate, there are unhinged souls among us who will feel justified in turning to violent remedies for imagined threats."

- David Horsey

 

"While information is the oxygen of the modern age, disinformation is the carbon monoxide that can poison generations."

- Newton Lee