News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Opinion | How this Biden nominee can pull off a deal with North Korea where others failed

2. The Most Urgent North Korean Nuclear Threat Isn’t What You Think

3. South Korea’s No Good Very Bad Year

4. DNI: Cyber Is The Common Weapon Among Top Adversaries

5. Ruling or fleeing North Korea's hell

6. International human rights groups urge Biden to highlight rights issue in North Korea policy

7. S. Korean, Japanese activists, religious leaders urge US to change its N. Korea strategy

8. Kim Jong-un branded 'modern day Hitler' by furious North Korean defector

9. Kerry says U.S. intervening in Japan's water dumping is not 'appropriate'

10. U.S. lawmakers ask Korea to reconsider the anti-leaflet law

11. Court orders Tokyo to pay 'comfort women' legal fees

12. How to Stop North Korea From Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Superpower

13. North Korea's New Arduous March: What Biden Should Do (And Not Do)

 

1. Opinion | How this Biden nominee can pull off a deal with North Korea where others failed

NBC News · by Christine Ahn · April 17, 2021

I certainly hope the DEPSECSTATE does not adopt the Christine Ahn appeasement strategy.

I wonder why Ms. Ahn uses so many north Korean talking points.  Perhaps it is her connection to the north Korean United Front Department: 

But it is a real reach to assess the Perry Policy review proposals that would have led to a breakthrough even if Gore had won the 2000 election. The Perry Policy was a good test of the regime and the regime failed the test and from that point on we should have realized the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

I certainly want peace, reconciliation and unification on the Korean peninsula.  However, we will never get there by appeasing the regime and allow Kim to successfully execute his long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy which is what Ms Ahn's advice will lead to if followed.

 

2. The Most Urgent North Korean Nuclear Threat Isn’t What You Think

carnegieendowment.org · by Toby Dalton

Spoiler alert: Proliferation.

We need to either aggressively implement the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) or develop a new program that will shut down proliferation. This must be conducted regardless of the status of negotiations with north Korea.  This is one of the most dangerous violations of the UN Security Council Resolutions and it must be enforced.  And to bet the horse more dead this is just another indication of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kimfamily regime and it is difficult to accept that the regime will conduct any negotiation in good faith as it continues its proliferation activities.

 

3. South Korea’s No Good Very Bad Year

inkstickmedia.com · by Mason Richey · April 16, 2021

A tough critique on South Korea and the pandemic.

And a sober conclusion: “Fortuna’s wheel will turn again, but South Korea has seen better days. Of course, the Lord helps those who help themselves, and the question is: “What can South Korea do to help its cause?”

The ship has sailed on fast-track vaccine procurement, so South Koreans will need patience until herd immunity. But the wait will be easier if the Moon administration shows humility in the face of popular anger and focuses on its original campaign pledge: Fighting corruption, helping the middle class and small business, and chastening the oligopolistic conglomerates dominating the local economy. On the foreign policy front, improving relations with the United States, an important ally, while focusing less on quixotic breakthroughs with North Korea would be a start. Placing more emphasis on effective participation in multilateral regional and global engagement could restore some lustre to South Korea’s fading star.

 

4.  DNI: Cyber Is The Common Weapon Among Top Adversaries

airforcemag.com · by John A. Tirpak · April 17, 2021

Including Kim Jong-un's "all purpose sword."

Excerpts: “North Korea continues to see nuclear weapons as its guarantor of survival against foreign intervention and attack, and the intel community believes that Kim Jong Un thinks he will “over time … gain international acceptance and respect as a nuclear power.” He is apparently not swayed by pressures to change course in this regard. Kim is also building his conventional forces and cyber capabilities as further deterrents and coercive capabilities.

Haines said North Korea’s conventional military power will pose “an increasing threat to the United States, South Korea, and Japan.” Pyongyang paraded its growing missile capability in January 2021 and October 2020.

Although North Korea ended its self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing in late 2019, it hasn’t conducted any new tests of such systems since.

“Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on [his own] terms,” the DNI said.

In cyber, North Korea “probably possesses the expertise” to cause “temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure … and business networks” in the U.S. and may be able to disrupt software supply chains. It has conducted cyber theft operations “against financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide,” and likely has gotten away with stealing “hundreds of millions of dollars,” which it‘s likely using to fund missile development, the DNI said.

 

5. Ruling or fleeing North Korea's hell

The Korea Times · April 18, 2021

I pay attention to Lee Seo-hyun (and her brother and father).  I recommend watching their YouTube channel for important and unique insights into north Korea.

Such as this insight: “Pyonghattans are the wealthiest people in North Korea, but they may also be the most watched people in the world. No matter where Pyonghattans are, at their organizations, at work, at home, they are being watched, and they know it. Every word and move is watched, even if they cry hard enough for the dictators. A higher position means higher levels of surveillance. It's very normal for Pyonghattan residents to have their phones and their homes tapped. I remember my mom and I whispering into each other's ears at home about Kim Jong-il having many wives. It's been six years since my family left North Korea, but my mom still sometimes whispers directly into my ears. And I remind her every time: "Mom! We're not in North Korea anymore!"

North Korea brainwashes us with propaganda and lies, tries to scare us about the outside unknown world, and makes it so difficult to escape. It puts one final barrier in our brains: guilt.

Once we learn how cruel the regime is, we realize what can happen to those left behind if we leave. It is another moral dilemma that the cruel regime forces on us with its "guilt by association" strategy of punishing entire families for the actions of one person.

 

6. International human rights groups urge Biden to highlight rights issue in North Korea policy

The Korea Times · April 18, 2021

We must have a human rights upfront approach.  I think those who advocate for focusing on denuclearization and setting aside human rights out of fear that it will prevent reaching denuclearization are mistaken.  We must not neglect the human rights of 25 million Koreans in the north. It is a moral imperative and a national security issue.

 

7. S. Korean, Japanese activists, religious leaders urge US to change its N. Korea strategy

Hani · by  Cho Yeon-hyun · April 16, 2021

You certainly can't argue with peace as an objective. But we must approach peace on the Korean peninsula with a realistic assessment of the nature, objectives, and straggly of Kim Jong-un and the Kim family regime.

These proposals for declaring the end of the war or establishing some kind of peace regime without radical changes to the military posture in the north are actually putting the region on a path to conflict.  As painful as it sounds, the status quo based on deterrence and defense is much more likely to prevent conflict than a premature end of war declaration.  Kim only will accept an end of war declaration if he thinks it can set the conditions for his successful strategy.  However, he is more interested in sanctions relief through coercion and blackmail diplomacy.  He certainly does not want an end of war declaration just for the sake of an elusive "peace". He does not seek peace.  He seeks domination.

Excerpts: ““Any political compromise that sets aside the issue of historical awareness will destabilize Korea-Japan relations and fail to bring about lasting peace in the region,” said the letter, which was reportedly sent to Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and the leaders of more than a hundred nonprofits and religious groups, representing Catholics, Protestants, Jews, and Muslims.

“We hope the Biden administration will consolidate its efforts to improve the relationship between the two Koreas, between Korea and Japan, and between Korean and the US by advancing the peace process on the Korean Peninsula. We also hope that Korea will not be included in the QUAD alliance that will strengthen the new Cold War system in Northeast Asia and strengthen the division system on the Korean Peninsula,” the KJ Platform said in its letter.

“We reiterate that an agreement to end the Korean War cannot be a diplomatic card calling for the denuclearization of the DPRK [North Korea]. This is ending the disastrous history of war and the history of division on the Korean Peninsula.”

 

8. Kim Jong-un branded 'modern day Hitler' by furious North Korean defector

dailystar.co.uk · by Michael Moran · April 17, 2021

This is a much different YouTuber who has become a successful capitalist with her sensational videos on YouTube.

 

9. Kerry says U.S. intervening in Japan's water dumping is not 'appropriate'

koreajoongangdaily.join.com · Sarah Kim

 

10. U.S. lawmakers ask Korea to reconsider the anti-leaflet law

koreajoongangdaily.join.com · Sarah Kim

Excerpts: “Rep. Christopher Smith, a Republican of New Jersey and a co-chair of the commission, in his opening remarks labeled the South's anti-leaflet law the "anti-Bible and BTS balloon bill," noting that the balloons carry religious information and items related to Korean pop culture such as K-pop band BTS across the border.

 He said that he believes that the new law, currently under review by the Korean Constitutional Court, "unduly infringes upon freedom of expression under both the Korean constitution and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights."

 Smith added that the supermajority of President Moon Jae-in's Democratic Party (DP) in the National Assembly has "led to a gross overstepping of authority" and criticized the "harassment" of defector groups that send balloons to the North.  

 He continued, "But perhaps even more significant than the bending of the knee toward North Korea are efforts to equidistance Korea from the United States and toward China," as Washington has pressured Beijing over rights issues and its growing assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region.  

Smith added, "Korea must resume its commitment to civil and political rights in particular, and human rights in general."  

 

11. Court orders Tokyo to pay 'comfort women' legal fees

koreajoongangdaily.join.com · by Michael Lee

More ROK-Japan friction.

 

12. How to Stop North Korea From Becoming a Nuclear Weapons Superpower

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · April 18, 2021

When did we last intervene in north Korea? Oh yes, in 1950-53 when north Korea attacked the South.

I do not think Mr. Bandow has any appreciation for our alliance structure and that we have built it to support our interests and not solely for the defense of allies.

But we should test the statement in the conclusion: Are we more secure in the US that at virtually any point in history?

Excerpts: “Equally important, the United States must consider the price it is willing to pay to defend its allies. Especially in a world in which most of America’s friends are well able to protect themselves and are not critical to America’s survival. The only existential military threat facing the United States today is nuclear war. Thus, there is nothing more important for Washington than precluding, deterring, thwarting, or otherwise defeating such an attack. Which requires avoiding involvement in any war which the DPRK perceives as posing an existential threat, meaning any conflict with America.

Despite a world filled with conflict and upheaval, the United States is more secure today than at virtually any other point in American history. The primary dangers come from getting entangled in other nations’ conflicts, such as on the Korean Peninsula. The results were awful in 1950. If the DPRK creates a nuclear arsenal numbering in the hundreds, then the consequences could be cataclysmic for the United States, unless Washington abandons its interventionist addiction.”

 

13. North Korea's New Arduous March: What Biden Should Do (And Not Do)

The National Interest · by Ted Galen Carpenter · April 18, 2021

This is appeasement and will only cause Kim to double down on his long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy.  His proposal does not recognize the nature of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts: “Indeed, the Biden foreign policy team should adopt the opposite approach. Kim’s language conveys a tacit admission that North Korea’s chronic policy of self-isolation has not served the country, or the regime, particularly well. Minimizing interaction with the outside world did not even shield North Korea from the ravages of the coronavirus pandemic.

That realization may well make Kim more receptive to productive negotiations on an array of issues. The Biden administration should seize that opportunity by making timely concessions and seeking to achieve some attainable goals. The demand for complete denuclearization, though, is not on the list of such goals; it remains, as it always has, a poison pill that terminates any prospects for constructive diplomacy.

A key timely concession would be the easing of economic sanctions. In addition to being one creative component of a wiser foreign policy, such a move would constitute basic humanitarianism—especially if North Korea is facing a crisis comparable to the horrible famine of the 1990s. That concession also would facilitate negotiations on other important issues.

 

-----------

 

"The mind is everything. What you think you become." 

- Buddha

 

"It is common sense to take a method and try it. If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something."
- Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

   "The most difficult thing is the decision to act, the rest is merely tenacity." 

- Amelia Earhart

 

 

 

 

A United States Institute of Peace commentary on the ongoing status of Sinjar after being a battlefront in the fight against ISIS

Part 1: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/04/struggle-sinjar-iraqis-views-security-disputed-district

Part 2: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/04/struggle-sinjar-iraqis-views-governance-disputed-district

"Iraq’s Sinjar district and its communities have struggled to recover from the recent conflict against the Islamic State group (ISIS). This is due in large part to the fact that the district is one of 14 territories under dispute between Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). As a result, Sinjar has become an arena for competition between the federal government, KRG and other actors in the post-ISIS period. This reality has led to frustration, anger and disillusionment among the communities in Sinjar, the majority of whom are Yazidi (Ezidi).

Along with the Government of Iraq (GoI) and the KRG, actors aligned with the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), among others, are also part of this competition for control of Sinjar. There is a multitude of security actors aligned with these sides along with two competing administrative units attempting to govern the district, one aligned to the PMF and the other to the KRG. In October 2020, the GoI and KRG reached an agreement to help address the security and administrative challenges facing the district.

Recent findings from USIP’s Conflict and Stabilization Monitoring Framework (CSMF) highlight that the Sinjar agreement, if implemented, may indeed help address some community concerns around security and governance."

A review of "Lawrence of Arabia on War: The Campaign in the Desert, 1916–18" by Robert Johnson

 

Link: https://mwi.usma.edu/seven-pillars-revisited-the-myths-and-misreadings-of-t-e-lawrence/

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Russia Bounty Story Was Always Murky

2. A Platoon Leader’s Takeaways from the Anti-Extremism Stand-Down

3. Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Suga of Japan at Press Conference

4. Ukraine’s Unconventional Warfare Plan to Resist a Russian Invasion

5. How Delta, Rangers, and the Green Berets' unique training would pay off in an Arctic war with Russia

6. The simple reasons online disinformation may never be fixed

7. America’s Come-From-Behind Pandemic Victory

8. 'A long way to go:' Why TikTok still has a QAnon and COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theory problem

9. Unconventional Supply Network Operations: A New Frontier in Global Competition

10. Huawei was able to eavesdrop on Dutch mobile network KPN: Report

11. How State’s Disinformation-Fighting Arm Uses Artificial Intelligence

12. What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World

13. Norway to allow U.S. military to build on its soil in new accord

14. The U.S. Marines Just Gave Us a Preview of How They Would Fight China

15.  Eight cadets at West Point expelled for cheating, over 50 set back a year

16. US should accept that its FONOPs have political implications

17. Biden Delegation Pledges US Support for Taiwan Self-Defense

18. Hard strategic realities keep US and Japan apart

19. The Contradiction That Doomed America’s Mission in Afghanistan

20. Trump-era Efforts to Boost Military Readiness Produced Mixed Results, GAO Finds

21. Trumpism lives on in new thinktank – but critics say it’s ‘just a grift’

22. The Claremont Institute’s Counterrevolution to Save America

23. Opinion | How Kash Patel rose from obscure Hill staffer to key operative in Trump’s battle with the intelligence community

 

1. The Russia Bounty Story Was Always Murky

vitalinterests.thedispatch.com · by Thomas Joscelyn

Excerpts: “From the beginning, the U.S. intelligence community wasn’t really sure whether the Russians actually paid for any anti-American operations. In other words, they didn’t know whether the alleged bounty offers had any real effect.

...

The reality is that the U.S. intelligence community is inundated with “low to moderate confidence”-type reporting all the time. Why did the alleged Russian bounties deserve front-page attention? It’s natural to suspect that anything Russia-related stood out to officials during the Trump years, when the president was widely accused of being a Russian asset and a Kremlin hook could instantly hype any story.

...

Again, the U.S. government should be forward leaning when it comes to protecting American troops, especially as they are withdrawn from Afghanistan. But that doesn’t mean this story deserved all the attention it received.”

​The more I think about this entire incident the ​more I think this was a successful information and influence operation to exploit the existing divide in our country as well as the gullibility of the biased press on one side of the political divide. And the biased press on the other side will make the same hay over these recent intelligence assessments.

 

2. A Platoon Leader’s Takeaways from the Anti-Extremism Stand-Down

fromthegreennotebook.com · by Connor Collins · April 16, 2021

This platoon leader answered the proverbial LT questions: "What do you do now, Lieutenant?" Agree or disagree with this him, he did something.

Conclusion: “Therefore I offer three simple suggestions for junior leaders to act on personally and with their units. Each one flows from my three main points. First, peruse the Constitution once a year and talk honestly with colleagues about its (in)significance to you. Second, talk politics and be prepared to listen to different opinions. And third–perhaps the hardest of the three–examine yourself as a citizen of the internet. If small unit leaders can do these things personally, and perhaps even encourage their subordinates to do the same, our military will be better prepared for the wide range of challenges it will face in the coming decades.”

 

3. Remarks by President Biden and Prime Minister Suga of Japan at Press Conference

Office of the President of the United States  • APRIL 16, 2021 

Key excerpts: Prime Minister Suga:

“On North Korea, we confirmed our commitment to the CVID of all weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles of all ranges, and agreed to demand North Korea to fulfill its obligations under Security Council resolutions.

On the issue of abduction, we reaffirmed that it is a grave human rights issue, and that our two countries will work together to seek immediate resolution by North Korea. Encountering North Korea, and for the peace and prosperity of the Indo-Pacific, both of us recognize that trilateral cooperation, including the ROK, has never been as important as today, and agreed to promote such collaboration.”

President Biden: “We committed to working together to take on the challenges from China and on issues like the East China Sea, the South China Sea, as well as North Korea, to ensure a future of a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Again note the reference to UN Security Council resolutions as well as trilateral ROK-Japan-US cooperation on north Korea. Prime Minister Suga is "on message."

 

4. Ukraine’s Unconventional Warfare Plan to Resist a Russian Invasion

coffeeordie.com · by Nolan Peterson · April 13, 2021

The employment of resistance. Possibly to achieve unconventional deterrence (Robert Jones, Deterring “Competition Short of War”: Are Gray Zones the Ardennes of our Modern Maginot Line of Traditional Deterrence? https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/deterring-competition-short-war-are-gray-zones-ardennes-our-modern-maginot-line ) 

Here are some references that apply for those who want to look at the concept of resistance against revisionist powers. These provide the intellectual foundation for studying and understanding resistance.

JSOU: Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) by Otto C. Fiala Foreword by Major General Kirk Smith Brigadier General Anders Löfberg: https://jsou.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=54216464

SOCEUR: Resistance Operating Concept: https://nsiteam.com/social/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/U-SMA-Brief-SOCEUR-Resistance-Operating-Concept.pdf

USASOC ARIS Project:

Resistance Manual: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/resistance-manual.pdf

Science of Resistance: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/science-resistance.pdf

Understanding States of Resistance: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/understanding-states-resistance.pdf

Tactical Pocket Reference - Resistance: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/tactical-states-reference.pdf

Resistance and the Cyber Domain: https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/resistance-cyber.pdf

 

5. How Delta, Rangers, and the Green Berets' unique training would pay off in an Arctic war with Russia

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

6. The simple reasons online disinformation may never be fixed

sciencefocus.com · by Nina Jankowicz

Depressing but probably accurate.

Excerpts: “I used to use the term ‘media literacy’, but now I talk about ‘information literacy’. Being information literate is broader than understanding how social media platforms work and how they target you. It’s about the whole ecosystem that a consumer of information online needs to understand to have the full context, like why am I being targeted with this?

In terms of how we fight this, there’s no easy solution. Fact checking people individually doesn’t work. People tend to stand their ground when they see something that tells them that they’re wrong.

I’ve found that getting into a conversation has some success. Ask them, “Why do you believe this article? What appeals to you about it?” Understand where they’re coming from and then hopefully equip them without saying, “you’re wrong.” Instead, we can say, “I know you care about child trafficking. Here is a better source than that.” And then, over time and with better evidence, they come to change their minds.

The emotional approach takes so much more time and energy, but it’s what you need to do to counteract disinformation online.”

 

7. America’s Come-From-Behind Pandemic Victory

Foreign Policy · by Hal Brands · April 16, 2021

Very interesting assessment from our Grand Strategy expert, Hal Brands: “How much of this is a direct result of COVID-19? Probably quite a lot. National security hawks had been trying to convince Americans for years that China was a dangerous rival, but it was only during COVID-19 that the proportion of Americans who see Beijing as the country’s greatest enemy more than doubled, from 22 percent to 45 percent. In 9 of 12 countries surveyed, negative views of Xi increased by double digits between 2019 and 2020. Granted, international audiences also think the United States did a horrible job handling the pandemic. But the United States has an opportunity under new leadership to rebuild its credibility. Xi is not going anywhere, and the worst characteristics of China’s COVID-19 response—particularly the secrecy and vicious dishonesty that have been there from the start—are intrinsic to the Leninist, one-party system he runs.

In retrospect, COVID-19 may loom largest as the moment when Beijing, in more openly revealing its ambitions and tactics, also unintentionally helped to derail them. This argument may sound ridiculous after a year when the United States lost so many of its own citizens. And the United States hinges on its ability to make the most of the opportunities before it—after a period when the country’s reputation for pursuing the bold, positive policies that are needed today has itself taken a beating.

But COVID-19 would hardly be the only example of an international crisis that ultimately produced geopolitical outcomes at variance with first, or even second, impressions. The pandemic is not done tormenting the United States just yet. It is, however, moving into a new phase that is less likely to reveal a struggling superpower and more an impressively resilient one.”

 

8. 'A long way to go:' Why TikTok still has a QAnon and COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy theory problem

USA Today · by Jessica Guynn

These ideas are not limited to TikTok. I see them all the time on social media (and among "closed" Facebook groups!). And there are non-QAnon adherents who believe and further disseminate these ideas.

The latest QAnon and COVID-19 vaccine conspiracy videos on TikTok advanced debunked theories that members of the U.S. government are trying to “overthrow our constitutional government,” and that Bill Gates and Dr. Anthony Fauci caused COVID-19 to profit from it.

 

9. Unconventional Supply Network Operations: A New Frontier in Global Competition

realcleardefense.com · by Daniel Egel and Ken Gleiman

From two of my favorite unconventional strategic thinkers.

Conclusion: “Building cross-functional, multi-domain strategies, tactics, and organizational models designed to dynamically map, monitor, and then either manipulate or attack these complex, adaptive supply networks could be one of the next great challenges of international security. The United States lacks appropriate operational frameworks, strategies and tactics, as well as the accompanying advanced tools to, at speed and scale, gain the necessary forensic understanding for these operations.

 

10. Huawei was able to eavesdrop on Dutch mobile network KPN: Report

nltimes.nl

Sure, Huawei is not a security threat.

 

11. How State’s Disinformation-Fighting Arm Uses Artificial Intelligence

nextgov.com 

Technology is great and fighting disinformation is important but what about offensively getting our superior message out? Our values? Our desired American narrative? When are we going to be proactive instead of reacting and trying to counter the narratives of the revision and rogue power and violent extremist organizations?

But as Clint Eastwood said, "A man's gotta know his limitations." This is the most frank and honest and accurate assessment I have read by a US government official. Kudos to Mr. Kimmage.

“If I could really use one word to characterize the whole philosophical approach of the Global Engagement Center, its partnerships,” he added. “We realize that the U.S. government is, in most cases, not the most effective communicator with most audiences, and the U.S. government is not always going to be the most innovative, because there are all kinds of constraints in a big bureaucracy. So, what we try to do is identify and support partners who are at the cutting-edge of innovation, who are thinking creatively about what's going to happen next.”

So much of the activity GEC tracks is on digital platforms via technical tools. The center established a technology engagement team that works with the officials in the tech sector to identify innovative tools that could be put to use to combat the threats. They maintain a testbed and have biweekly demonstrations.

“We've reviewed over 200 tools,” Kimmage said. “We've done more in-depth testing on 25 tools and some of those are now being put to work by some of our partners.”

GEC also maintains an online platform and community of interest—disinfocloud.com—to connect with relevant stakeholders.

“We’re very eager to engage,” Kimmage said.

 

12. What America’s Vaccination Campaign Proves to the World

The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · April 10, 2021

Excerpts: “But an opportunity for the U.S. might lie precisely here, in the authoritarian drive to politicize the vaccines. The best answer to Russian and Chinese strongmen who offer thousands of vaccines to countries that say nice things about them is to flood the market with millions of American doses, helping everyone regardless of what they say about the U.S. or anyone else. After Trump, the American political system won’t win much admiration again anytime soon. But if American democracy is no longer a trusted product, American efficiency could be once again. Within a matter of weeks, a majority of American adults will have had their first dose of a vaccine. What if the U.S. then begins to pivot from mass-vaccinating its own citizens to mass-vaccinating the rest of the world? Americans can’t do social trust, but we can do vaccines, plus the military logistics needed to distribute them: planes, trucks, cold-storage chains. The best cure for propaganda and disinformation is real-life experience: If people see that the vaccines work, they will eventually get one. We can end the global pandemic, improve the economy for everybody, protect ourselves and everyone else, and create the relationships that can help us deal with crises to come.

The U.S. might even have an opportunity to turn a mass-delivery effort into something more permanent. If the World Health Organization has become too bureaucratic and too reliant on China to enjoy the complete confidence of the rest of the world, then let’s use this moment to build COVAX into something new, something more trustworthy: an institution that provides smarter delivery systems, more efficient biomedical cooperation, and links among production centers in Europe, India, Africa, and elsewhere in the world. Vaccine nationalism is small-minded, self-centered, and ultimately self-defeating, because COVID-19 will not cease to be a problem until no one has it. This is the moment to think big, the moment for generosity and big ideas. As our massive logistical investment in refrigerated transport begins to pay off, the question for Americans is not just how we can enter the game, but how we can change it.”

 

13. Norway to allow U.S. military to build on its soil in new accord

Reuters

Another issue for all the anti-US overseas base haters to protest over.

 

14. The U.S. Marines Just Gave Us a Preview of How They Would Fight China

19fortyfive.com · by Caleb Larson · April 16, 2021

 

15.  Eight cadets at West Point expelled for cheating, over 50 set back a year

USA Today · by Tom Vanden Brook

Oh no. Not again. But I suppose the military remains a microcosm of our society.

 

16. US should accept that its FONOPs have political implications

asiatimes.com · by More by Mark Valencia · April 17, 2021

Perhaps this is part of an IO campaign to show the US is not solely focused on "containing" China and is asserting FON rights regardless of the country. Of course I would hope this kind of action would be coordinated behind closed doors with India if that were the case

 

17.  Biden Delegation Pledges US Support for Taiwan Self-Defense

thediplomat.com · by Nick Aspinwall · April 17, 2021

Emphasis on "self?"

 

18.  Hard strategic realities keep US and Japan apart

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · April 16, 2021

Again to paraphrase Clint: "A country's got to know its limitations or the limitations of its allies."

 

19. The Contradiction That Doomed America’s Mission in Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Max Fisher · April 17, 2021

 

20. Trump-era Efforts to Boost Military Readiness Produced Mixed Results, GAO Finds

defenseone.com · by Elizabeth Howe

The question is do we need a new way to measure readiness? Or even to define what is readiness? And readiness for what?

 

21. Trumpism lives on in new thinktank – but critics say it’s ‘just a grift’

The Guardian · by David Smith · April 17, 2021

AFPI.

 

22. The Claremont Institute’s Counterrevolution to Save America

realclearwire.com · by Mike Sabo

Conclusion: By reasserting Americans’ control over their political institutions, Claremont seeks to help recover republican government.

 

23. Opinion | How Kash Patel rose from obscure Hill staffer to key operative in Trump’s battle with the intelligence community

The Washington Post · April 16, 2021

With all due respect to the many great young political appointees and civil servants serving in our government the Africa resource mission by the SEALs indicates how youth and inexperience can hinder real world operations and lead to tragedy.

Excerpt: “Anger toward Patel within the national security bureaucracy mounted after an Oct. 31, 2020, hostage rescue mission in Nigeria. The incident, never previously reported in detail, was described by four high-level sources.

It was a rescue mission that was nearly aborted partly because of inadequate coordination by Patel. SEAL Team Six had been assigned to rescue 27-year-old Philip Walton, a missionary’s son who had been kidnapped by gunmen in Niger, near the border with Nigeria. Patel, as a senior counterterrorism adviser, had assured colleagues that the mission had a green light, according to several sources. The SEALs were ready to parachute into the rescue site from high altitude (one source estimated 30,000 feet) when there was a last-minute hitch.

But as the SEALs were about to jump, military commanders and State Department officials realized that one necessary item hadn’t been completed: The Nigerian government hadn’t been informed prior to the operation inside their country, as required.

A frantic last-minute effort to obtain the necessary permission ensued. The SEAL team’s aircraft held over the target, flying in a racetrack pattern, for about 45 minutes while the State Department tried to locate a Nigerian national security official who could receive the official notice. Finally, just 15 minutes before the operational window closed, the Nigerians were given word, the SEALs parachuted down, and the hostage was rescued.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, were angry that, in their view, Patel had prematurely said the operation was fully cleared, according to knowledgeable officials. One senior Pentagon official said he was “incensed” at Patel. A second senior Pentagon described Patel’s actions as potentially “dangerous” for the SEALs.

 

Young political appointees and civil servants would do well to remember General Schoomaker's adage: "Don't ever confuse enthusiasm with capability." This is also worth a read: 

 

--------------

 

“One can define their way to failure, but one must understand their way to success.”  

-Robert Jones

 

"I do not agree with a word you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

- Voltaire

 

“Having a strategy suggests an ability to look up from the short term and the trivial to view the long term and the essential, to address causes rather than symptoms, to see woods rather than trees.”
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Case for Maximizing Engagement With North Korea

2.  U.S.- Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. – JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”

3. SOCKOR Dedicates Headquarters Campus After Medal of Honor Recipient

4. Suga says he is prepared to meet N. Korean leader Kim to address abduction issue

5. U.S., Japan committed to complete denuclearization of N. Korea: leaders

6. FM Chung, U.S envoy hold dinner talks on climate change cooperation

7. U.S. congressmen call for amendment of anti-leaflet law

8. North Korea Gives Extra Food to Veterans for Former Leader’s Birthday

9. What can Joe Biden do about North Korea that Trump didn't do?

10. Russian envoy says 'no famine' in North Korea, describes 'extra-harsh' COVID-19 restrictions

11. Is North Korea Returning to Diplomacy?

12. Kim Jong Un attends concert with North Korea's first lady

13. North Koreans don masks to celebrate birth of country's founder

14. 7 Years After Sewol Ferry Disaster, Bereaved Families Still Urge Government to Reveal the Truth

15. How South Korean Soldiers and YouTube Catapulted a K-Pop Girl Group to Fame

 

1. The Case for Maximizing Engagement With North Korea

38north.org · by Frank Aum · April 16, 2021

I am for engagement.  But first Kim has to want to engage.  Second, we have to have the right balance between engagement and protecting South Korea, seeking stability, stopping proliferation, halting global illicit activities, and putting pressure on the regime to halt its human rights abuses.  Third, engagement must be focused on a long term goal such as resolving the "Korea question."  Lastly, we must understand that engagement without pressure (and without accountability for malign actions) will be assessed as appeasement and success for Kim's long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy.

I am for engagement as long as we engage Kim Jong-un with the full understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

I think the Biden administration is going to support engagement with its new Korea policy; however, it seems apparent that it is going to base the policy on the requirement for full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions. 

Conclusion: “To be sure, North Korea also has a say in whether engagement is possible. Its government faces significant constraints and sometimes can take months to respond to proposals. Also, Pyongyang—even more than Washington—can act cautiously out of fear. It often retreats into its shell during periods of crisis, like the current COVID pandemic, restricts the movement of foreigners and citizens to maintain strict control, and can sometimes create an inhospitable environment through its harsh treatment of foreigners suspected of threatening behavior. But just as often, North Korea is eager to engage, invite foreign delegations, seek meetings to discuss the potential for peacebuilding, and explore academic and scientific exchanges. The United States needs to be ready when North Korea reemerges from its COVID lockdown. Better yet, it should encourage the North’s reemergence by signaling a robust commitment to peace and engagement and reinvigorating offers for COVID assistance. As North Korea has noted, in a message of both warning and invitation, it will respond to the US based on “power for power and goodwill for goodwill.”

The future of US-DPRK relations is still to be determined. If the United States continues a policy of isolation and pressure, North Korea will likely remain a hostile and inscrutable security threat, a chronic hotspot draining attention and resources from other priorities, and, in the worst case, one miscalculation away from precipitating a nuclear catastrophe. By shifting to a comprehensive engagement policy, however, Washington could work together with Pyongyang to develop more nuanced understandings of each other, enhance mutual trust and reduce threat perceptions, manage and decrease nuclear and conventional risks, and cultivate the North’s ability to participate as a more responsible member of the international community.”

 

2. U.S.- Japan Joint Leaders’ Statement: “U.S. – JAPAN GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW ERA”

APRIL 16, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

Key excerpt: “The United States and Japan reaffirmed their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea, urging North Korea to abide by its obligations under UN Security Council resolutions, and called for full implementation by the international community. We intend to strengthen deterrence to maintain peace and stability in the region and will work together and with others to address the dangers associated with North Korea’s nuclear and missile program, including the risk of proliferation. President Biden reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to the immediate resolution of the abductions issue.

The common refrain in all recent allied (and Quad) statements has been about implementing or abiding by all relevant UN Security Council resolutions which of course calls for the denuclearization of north Korea, et el (while mentioning the desire for the denuclearization of the of the Korean peninsula).

 

3. SOCKOR Dedicates Headquarters Campus After Medal of Honor Recipient

dvidshub.net

I am glad they are able to honor COL Howard this way.  I remember meeting COL Howard for the first time when he was the SOCKOR Commander in 1989. We were out training with the 5th ROK SF Bde conducting live fire training. And when he came to observe the training the range caught on fire and he was able to watch an ODA and about 100 Korean SF try to put it out over the next hour.

You should be able to access other photos of the ceremony and the HQ here.  

And for a truly incredible and inspiring story please read this about COL Howard: "How Colonel Robert Howard Got to his Medal of Honor Ceremony." 

 

4. Suga says he is prepared to meet N. Korean leader Kim to address abduction issue

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 17, 2021

But the regime would really have to come clean after all its lies to Japan about this issue.  Will it ever do so?

Interestingly, Japan is the only major country Kim has not met with in the region.

 

5. U.S., Japan committed to complete denuclearization of N. Korea: leaders

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 17, 2021

Through implementation of all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions.

 

6. FM Chung, U.S envoy hold dinner talks on climate change cooperation

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 17, 2021
 

7. U.S. congressmen call for amendment of anti-leaflet law

donga.com · April 17, 2021

And going beyond the amendment, the ROK/US Alliance should initiate a comprehensive, sophisticated, and holistic information and influence campaign focusing on the resolution of the Korea question, influencing the 2d tier leadership, and preparing all Koreans for unification.  But I know that is a naive wish. But one can dream.

 

8. North Korea Gives Extra Food to Veterans for Former Leader’s Birthday

rfa.org  · by Hyemin Son

Does the regime really think these actions make it look good?  Or that the people don't realize what an empty gesture this really is?

Excerpts: “The central government ordered local authorities to provide bonus food to veterans who were injured in the line of duty, or who fought in the 1950-53 Korean War, during which about 406,000 North Korean military personnel and 600,000 North Korean civilians were killed.

In the impoverished country where life expectancy for men is about 68 years, few veterans of that conflict are still alive, meaning most receiving this year’s food bonus are so-called “honored veterans”—former soldiers of any age who became disabled in the line of duty.

As North Korea reveres Korean War veterans, the authorities ordered that they be given slightly more food than the injured veterans, a point of contention for the latter group.

 

9. What can Joe Biden do about North Korea that Trump didn't do?

NBC News · by Ken Dilanian and Carol E. Lee · April 17, 2021

My recommendation: Play the long game and conduct a superior form of political warfare focusing on solving the Korea question, implementing all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions, using a human rights upfront approach with a sophisticated information and influence campaign resting on a foundation of the strongest possible alliance deterrence and defense capability.

 

10.  Russian envoy says 'no famine' in North Korea, describes 'extra-harsh' COVID-19 restrictions

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

While there may not be a famine (at least not yet on sale of the Arduous March of 1994-96), the "extra-harsh" COVID 19 restrictions and their effects are what very well may cause internal instability.

 

11. Is North Korea Returning to Diplomacy?

thediplomat.com · by IsozakiI Atsuhito · April 16, 2021

We should remember that the concept of north Korean diplomacy (with Juche characteristics) is one of the long con, political warfare, subversion, coercion/extortion or blackmail diplomacy to establish the condition to achieve unification under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.  So if it is "returning to diplomacy" we need to keep in mind what that means.

 

12. Kim Jong Un attends concert with North Korea's first lady

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim

But no military parade.

 

13.  North Koreans don masks to celebrate birth of country's founder

Daily Mail · by Lydia Catling · April 16, 2021

Lots of photos at the link.

 

14.  7 Years After Sewol Ferry Disaster, Bereaved Families Still Urge Government to Reveal the Truth

thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · April 16, 2021

This is a wound that will not heal either in the Korean psyche or Korean politics.

 

15.  How South Korean Soldiers and YouTube Catapulted a K-Pop Girl Group to Fame

thediplomat.com · by Jenna Gibson · April 15, 2021

Soft power.

 

---------------

 

“One can define their way to failure, but one must understand their way to success.”  

-Robert Jones

 

"I do not agree with a word you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."

- Voltaire

 

“Having a strategy suggests an ability to look up from the short term and the trivial to view the long term and the essential, to address causes rather than symptoms, to see woods rather than trees.”
- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

Access the tracker HERE:

Trend Overview

Edited by Jonathan Schanzer

Welcome to FDD’s Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Every two weeks, we will ask our experts and scholars to provide real-time assessments of the administration’s foreign policy. The analyses below go beyond “quick take” tweets. Our contributors are instead tasked with providing a succinct rationale for the current trendlines – very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative. Links are embedded for readers who seek to read more. These trendlines can change quickly, so please check back twice per month to see how FDD’s experts and scholars view President Joe Biden’s foreign policy, and why.

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Man arrested for creating fake army unit

2. FDD | Covid-19's origins remain unknown. Holding China and the WHO accountable is necessary.

3. The FBI Takes a Drastic Step to Fight China’s Hacking Spree4/15/2021 Korean News and Commentary

4. Key Findings of the Inspector General’s Report on the Capitol Riot

5. Quad is not 'Asian NATO', India never had 'NATO mentality', Jaishankar says

6. Biden’s Foreign Policy Starts at Home

7. Exit Strategy

8. Seven Pillars Revisited: The Myths and Misreadings of T.E. Lawrence

9. The Next National Security Strategy and National Resilience Through Education

10. The Secret Spies Keeping Baghdad Safe

11. Digital Identity Is a National Security Issue

12. Afghans Wonder ‘What About Me?’ as American Troops Prepare to Withdraw

13. How Biden’s team overrode the brass on Afghanistan

14. U.S. Wins Allies’ Blessing on Afghanistan Withdrawal

15. Biden’s gamble: Will pulling troops out of Afghanistan revive extremist threat?

16. CIA’s Big Afghanistan Problem

17. Understanding the Iran Threat Network

18. Joe Biden gives up on the war in Afghanistan, leaving a weak ally

19. Biden and Suga should take a hard stand on human rights

20. Will Japan Confront China? A Visit to Washington May Offer a Clue.

21. Biden Finally Got to Say No to the Generals

22. Army Band HIJACKS Ballad of the Green Berets! | SOFREP

 

1. Man arrested for creating fake army unit

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · April 14, 2011

Chinese "unconventional warfare" for profit???

Excerpt: “Deng charged more than 100 fellow Chinese nationals a fee of between $300 and $450 to join the fake Army unit, according to the Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office.

He called his bogus squad the U.S. Army/Military Special Forces Reserve unit, or MSFR for short, and he gave himself the lofty title of supreme commander, prosecutors said.

 

2. FDD | Covid-19's origins remain unknown. Holding China and the WHO accountable is necessary.

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton and Mark Dubowitz · April 14, 2021

Conclusion: "For years, American political leaders have confused checkbook diplomacy with real leadership in multilateral bodies. After the devastation wrought by Covid-19 and the inability of the international community to objectively investigate the pandemic, continuing these failed policies at the WHO would be nothing short of diplomatic malpractice."

 

3. The FBI Takes a Drastic Step to Fight China’s Hacking Spree

Wired · by Brian Barrett · April 14, 2021

Excerpts: ““If the Microsoft Exchange servers they interacted with were fully patched and they actually deleted any and all web shells on the backdoor servers, it should be quite effective,” says Steven Adair, founder of security firm Volexity, which first identified the Hafnium attack. “Assuming these Microsoft Exchange servers were just backdoor with web shells, they were essentially sitting ducks. These actions potentially save these organizations from future harm.”

There are two important caveats here. First, removing a web shell doesn’t get rid of any malware that may already have snuck through, or return any data that has been stolen. Second, if the underlying vulnerabilities remain on a system, someone could always just plant another web shell.

In those limitations, Tait sees an encouraging degree of restraint on the part of the FBI. “What they’re doing is actually unusually narrow,” he says. The FBI could have asked to scan for ransomware or illicit materials that might be present on the server, or to proactively patch servers that were still vulnerable. “Then I think you would have more serious privacy concerns, like is the FBI piggybacking on this to look for other crimes?” 

Instead, the agency got in, defused the bombs, and got back out.

Five years ago, an operation like this would have been highly unlikely, if not impossible. In December 2016, however, the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure was updated to make search and seizure orders more applicable to cybercrime. Rather than having to get a warrant in every individual court district where suspected illegal activity occurred, law enforcement could instead get sign-off for broader efforts from a single judge, as long as officials could demonstrate that the activity took place in five or more districts.

“The big mismatch has always been between the way that legal rules are tied to physical geography and that cyberoperations extend beyond it,” says Doss. A target’s vulnerabilities are more important to a hacker than what state they’re in, especially for large-scale hacks, like Hafnium’s Exchange server assault or SolarWinds or the creation of a botnet. 

 

4.  Key Findings of the Inspector General’s Report on the Capitol Riot

The New York Times · by Nicholas Fandos · April 13, 2021

This will be an interesting hearing. I am surprised the NY Times did not provide any of the findings on how the military performed.

 

5. Quad is not 'Asian NATO', India never had 'NATO mentality', Jaishankar says

theprint.in · April 14, 2021

A view from India.

We have tried NEATO, SEATO, CENTO and they did not work. I do not think there can be a NATO-like security arrangement. The conditions in Asia are much different than in Korea.

 

6. Biden’s Foreign Policy Starts at Home

defenseone.com · by Peter Nicholas

Some fascinating insights in this article. I agree the line between domestic and foreign policy is increasingly blurred and that foreign policy must be explained in terms of how it affects the American people.

 

7. Exit Strategy

defenseone.com · by Eliot A. Cohen

Conclusion: "This is, then, a humbling moment for the United States. It is a moment of relief for the parents of servicemen and servicewomen who would otherwise deploy to a war in which their politicians do not believe. It should be a moment of reflection for the leaders of institutions that performed less well than they ought to have. It is a moment for diplomats to rebalance and reconfigure elements of American foreign policy. And it is most definitely a moment of moral responsibility. If Americans take that responsibility seriously, welcoming to freedom and citizenship those who put their faith in American words, American commitments, and American ideals, then something redeeming will be saved from the wreck of a decent cause."

 

8. Seven Pillars Revisited: The Myths and Misreadings of T.E. Lawrence

mwi.usma.edu · by Sam Wilkins · April 15, 2021

To be effective in conventional, irregular, (or even nuclear) war, you must be a student of war and study the full spectrum of conflict. One trick ponies cannot endure with only one trick. We should all strive to achieve the coup d'oeil (military genius or the inward looking eye) Clausewitz advocated we develop and that Lawrence obviously possessed after his intense study of war combined with his experience on the ground. 

 

And in these times of uncertainty we should be investing in more education rather than cutting educational programs such as the Army's University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies. As General Schoomaker used to say, "Train for certainty. Educate for uncertainty."

Conclusion: “Johnson effectively captures how Lawrence’s successes were not due to some innate genius or mastery of set principles of irregular warfare, but rather the product of an intense study of war. As a student at Oxford, Lawrence poured over volumes of military history in an attempt to understand the challenges faced by great commanders. While he did not recognize it at the time, Lawrence was following the advice of Prussian thinker Carl von Clausewitz, who urged commanders to undertake such a “critical analysis proper,” as opposed to “the plain narrative of the historical event.” Nor did his self-development stop during the desert campaign; Lawrence proved willing to learn from his own mistakes and those of his partners.

Today, Lawrence’s example should inspire serious reflection on “how small wars fit into big ones.” In an era of increasing geopolitical rivalry, irregular warfare will remain a vital supporting pillar to conventional operations against peer competitors. If they wish to avoid the mistakes of the past, irregular warfare practitioners should pay close attention to Johnson’s book—both as a superb analysis of the desert campaign and as an antidote to misapplications of Lawrence’s ideas on war. As Lawrence himself wrote, “If we must fight, we have no excuse for not fighting well.”

 

9. The Next National Security Strategy and National Resilience Through Education

thestrategybridge.org · by Ryan Kort · April 15, 2021

Key point in the conclusion. Unfortunately there are an awful lot of educated people who believe in the conspiracy theories that contribute to the divide in our country.

“To compete effectively, the U.S. must have a well-educated populace. In addition to science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, the United States must also emphasize civics and history courses, with a solid grounding in historical and empirical facts about the history of our national institutions and constitutional form of governance. While several competing projects involve historical interpretation of pre and post-revolutionary U.S. governmental policy—such as the 1619 Project and the 1776 Project—the overarching goal of any civics education program must be to provide an inclusive, truthful accounting of the history and functions of the U.S. government. Such education must focus on making better informed and involved citizens who can participate constructively towards the common future we all share. Media literacy should begin at an early age.[23] The U.S. government can also reinforce this early education through public education campaigns and expanded national service opportunities.[24] Additionally, a decline in participation in civic organizations is precisely why a civics education renaissance in primary through university levels that focuses on presenting a broad survey of contemporary civic issues to expose students to divergent viewpoints can enhance their knowledge of actual public policy, tolerance of others, and engender a sense of legitimacy of democratic outcomes.[25]

As previous National Security Strategies articulated the case for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics to enable American prosperity, so too must the next National Security Strategy articulate the case for civics and media literacy education, accompanied by a renewal of civic engagement to live up to American values and expand our influence abroad. Former National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster succinctly captured the importance of education in his book Battlegrounds: “Educated citizens are best equipped to foil efforts to divide communities and pit them against each other.”[26] The ability to function as an engaged, media literate citizen within civic society is not just essential for the continued strength of our democracy; it is an essential foundation of competition and directly counters an asymmetric method for adversaries to gain advantage over the United States to further their own ends.

 

10. The Secret Spies Keeping Baghdad Safe

guernicamag.com · by Lindsey Hilsum · April 14, 2021

Interview with the author, Margaret Coker, of the book, The Spymaster of Baghdad.

 

11. Digital Identity Is a National Security Issue

warontherocks.com · by Patrick Hearn · April 15, 2021

Perhaps gives new meaning to "finding yourself." And you certainly have to "know yourself" to be successful in war at least half the time. (Apologies for the attempts at humor).

Excerpt: "Secure digital identity is as important to all Americans now as providing secure credentials to U.S. government employees was back in 2008. By elevating digital identity to a national security and counter-intelligence priority, the Biden administration can set in motion several initiatives to keep the country and its secrets safe. The United States should prioritize centralizing digital identity efforts at the White House, creating best practices across agencies, and arming Americans with accountable tools to protect themselves. By doing so, the White House can help build a strong digital infrastructure that is essential to the country’s digital safety, privacy, economy, and democracy."

 

12. Afghans Wonder ‘What About Me?’ as American Troops Prepare to Withdraw

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 14, 2021

I expect Thomas Gibbons-Neff (TM) will be one of the few journalists in Afghanistan who will be writing about the plight of the people (as much as his NY Times editors will allow him to do so.

 

13. How Biden’s team overrode the brass on Afghanistan

Politico · by Lara Seligman, Andrew Desiderio, Natasha Bertrand, and Naha Toosi · April 14, 2021

It was not a "Pentagon decision" to "override." It is a decision that can only be made by the president whether we like the decision or not. He may have "overrode" their recommendations or the options they provided, but they did not have the authority to make a decision that could be overrode. 

 

14. U.S. Wins Allies’ Blessing on Afghanistan Withdrawal

WSJ · by William Mauldin

Excerpts: “NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the withdrawal decision wasn’t easy and entailed risks.

“The alternative is to stay, but then we need to be prepared for a long-term, open-ended military presence and mostly will have to increase the number of NATO troops in Afghanistan to withstand increased Taliban pressure,” Mr. Stoltenberg said.

Mr. Austin declined to comment on the views of military commanders and officers in the U.S. about the decision. “I won’t speak for them,” Mr. Austin said, adding it “was an inclusive process, and their voices were heard, and their concerns taken into consideration as the president made his decision.”

 

15. Biden’s gamble: Will pulling troops out of Afghanistan revive extremist threat?

militarytimes.com · by Robert Burns · April 14, 2021

Are there options if the gamble does not work? I hope DOD, the IC, and State are coordinating and collaborating on those options.

 

16.  CIA’s Big Afghanistan Problem

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

Excerpts: “The prospect of such a scenario conjures up nightmarish memories of the apocalyptic debacles in Saigon and Mogadishu.

Imagine some 30,000 Afghans—in particular the women we have empowered— storming the airports to escape or, barring that, trying to make it overland to neighboring countries under Taliban attack, an intelligence officer told me when the prospect of an emergency exit was just a scary thought: There are no rivers to sail “boat people” into a nearby sea, like when Saigon collapsed in 1975—nor helicopters to wing desperate U.S. diplomats, CIA people and their Afghan friends from the American embassy to the safety of aircraft carriers offshore. The 38-mile drive from Kabul to Bagram air base has long been such a Taliban shooting gallery that U.S. personnel opt for helicopters. If it wants, the Islamist guerrillas can presumably pour mortar and rocket fire down on the airfield and transport planes.

Once a nightmare, a humanitarian disaster in Afghanistan is now an all too real possibility. It’s not clear whether U.S. leaders have truly grasped that. They’ve been kidding themselves about victory in Afghanistan for two decades now.

“The Americans have the watches,” the Taliban is fond of saying, “but we have the time.”

And now that time has come.

 

17. Understanding the Iran Threat Network

rand.org · by Ariane M. Tabatabai, Jeffrey Martini, Becca Wasser

The full 27 page report can be downloaded at the link.

 

18. Joe Biden gives up on the war in Afghanistan, leaving a weak ally

The Economist  · April 13, 2021

Conclusion: “On September 20th 2001, as American forces geared up to invade Afghanistan, President George W. Bush told a joint session of Congress that “this war will not be like the war against Iraq a decade ago, with a decisive liberation of territory and a swift conclusion.” He was right about that.

 

19. Biden and Suga should take a hard stand on human rights

asiatimes.com · by Ted Gover · April 15, 2021

And President Moon should be part of the effort as well for all the areas discussed in the article and north Korea.

 

20. Will Japan Confront China? A Visit to Washington May Offer a Clue.

The New York Times · by Motoko Rich · April 14, 2021

It is going to have to be prepared to do so eventually.

Excerpts: “Mr. Biden may also try to pull Japan along on climate change. Both Washington and Tokyo are working toward drastic reductions in carbon emissions, and Mr. Biden is hosting a climate summit next week. One goal is to persuade Japan to stop its financial support of coal projects abroad, which it has already started to reduce.

Mr. Suga may hope that a fruitful trip to Washington will bolster his standing at home, where he is politically vulnerable. The Japanese public is unhappy with his administration’s management of the pandemic and a slow vaccine rollout (although Mr. Suga has been cleared to travel after being vaccinated himself), and a majority oppose the decision to host the Olympic Games this summer.

The trip’s success may depend in part on whether Mr. Suga develops a rapport with Mr. Biden. Seasoned watchers of Japan will be closely tracking Mr. Suga, who is not known for his charisma, especially after his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, spent considerable time and effort wooing Mr. Biden’s predecessor.

“We have two older and very traditional politicians in a lot of ways,” said Kristin Vekasi, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maine. “I will be curious to see what they do.”

 

21. Biden Finally Got to Say No to the Generals

The New Yorker · by Susan B. Glasser · April 14, 2021

We seem to be trying to make this into some kind of civil-military divide but this seems to be the president making a decisive decision that only he can make whether we like the decision or not.

Excerpts: “The world of 2021 is just not the world of 2001. The list of more pressing concerns—recited by Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, and elaborated on in the report—began with an aggressive China and extended to Russia, Iran, North Korea, cyberattacks, climate change, global pandemics, financial crises, rising authoritarianism, international terrorist groups, and, in a striking acknowledgement for this annual national-security ritual, domestic violent extremists, such as the pro-Trump mob that stormed the U.S. Capitol, on January 6th. No wonder that Mark Warner, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, called Haines’s testimony “a list of about as many awful things as I have heard in ten minutes as I may have heard in recent times.”

 

Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan must be understood in that context. After a pandemic that has killed close to six hundred thousand Americans, new thinking about what constitutes a threat to the United States is desperately required. More Americans were dying every day during the pandemic’s height than in the entire two decades of the U.S. involvement in the Afghan war. And it was Americans seeking to stop the peaceful transfer of power who attacked the seat of American government, in January. National security is no longer a matter purely of foreign policy. Biden admitted he was making a choice, and maybe it will even prove to be the wrong one. But it’s a choice, he said, to “fight the battles for the next twenty years—not the last twenty.”

 

22. Army Band HIJACKS Ballad of the Green Berets! | SOFREP

sofrep.com · April 13, 2021

Not a critical national security issue of course.  

I have been told that it was Dolly Parton who wrote the extra verse. Compare the lyrics here: 

Other than the controversial verse I think the Army Band should be commended for a beautiful rendition of the song of the Special Forces Regiment.

 

--------------

 

Science must become Art....Of the two fields into which we have divided the conduct of war, tactics and strategy, the theory of the latter contains unquestionably, as before observed, the greatest difficulties, because the first is almost limited to a circumscribed field of objects, but the latter in the direction of objects leading directly to peace, opens to itself an unlimited field of possibilities. 

...

War is part of the intercourse of the human race. We say therefore, war belongs not to the province of arts and sciences, but to the province of social life.

- Clausewitz

 

“The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.”

...

Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight; (2) he will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces; (3) he will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks; (4) he will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared; (5) he will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.” 

- Sun Tzu

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea may resume nuclear, ICBM testing: intelligence chief

2. N. Korea marks late founder's birthday with celebrations, no signs of provocations yet

3. “Worst-Ever Situation” or Not (north Korea)

4. Sinpho South Shipyard: Submersible Missile Test Barge Returns to Secure Basin

5. After an Electoral Loss, Will South Korea’s President Change His Policies?

6. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Continued Activity

7. As North Korea and China plan to resume trade, reported land mines on border illustrate Pyongyang’s paranoia over Covid-19

8. North spends quiet, festivity-filled day remembering its founder

9. State Security University students in Sino-N. Korean border region withdrawn

10. Pro-unification group denounces planned U.S. hearing on leaflet ban as 'interference in inter-Korean affairs'

11. Military to set up AI security system near border following N.K. man's crossing

12. North Korea: What we know about its missile and nuclear programme

13. Russian ambassador says no famine in North Korea, trade may resume soon

14. North Korean educational authorities rank average test scores of students nationwide

15. China, North Korea border could be site of new projects, report says

16. Left-wing education destroying the world’s liberal democratic system

17. Asean and Korea amid mounting US-China rivalry

 

1. N. Korea may resume nuclear, ICBM testing: intelligence chief

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 15, 2021

The questions for me are always what effects does Kim seek to achieve if he conducts a nuclear or ICBM test? How does the action support his strategy.

The DNI gives us some broad answers:  "For its part, North Korea may take aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape its security environment and will seek to drive wedges between the United States and its allies," she said at the Senate hearing.

...

"Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on Pyongyang's terms," the report said.

She is describing Kim's strategy of political warfare, his long con and blackmail diplomacy - the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.​ These statements and the detailed information that back them up in the intelligence estimates should be driving our policy and strategy. We have to address the Korean security situation with a deep understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and deal with it as it really is and not as we would wish it to be.

Kim seems to be trying to shape the conditions so that the new Biden administration strategy is either dead on arrival or if the US wants to make the new ​strategy work it will have to provide sanctions relief in return for a promise to negotiate.

​There is one other concept that has been on my mind of late. KIm Jong-un may also act as a "spoiler" in great power competition. ​north Korea is not and will not be a great power but it is possible that Kim may believe that he can enhance his strategy by being a spoiler in the relationship between the US and China.

For all the pundits out there who are recommending policy and strategy I think it would be useful to understand that our policy makers at the NSC, State, DOD, Justice, Treasury, etc are going to be (or should be but I am confident they are) basing the policy and strategy on these intelligence estimate. Going forward I would recommend the pundits and think tankers reference the ODNI's threat assessment when making their new proposals. If their recommendations do not take into account the intelligence estimates then their policy and strategy recommendations should be dead on arrival.

 

2. N. Korea marks late founder's birthday with celebrations, no signs of provocations yet

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 15, 2021

Again, we really have to assess what effects Kim thinks he will achieve if he conducts a provocation.

 

3. “Worst-Ever Situation” or Not (north Korea)

38 North

Key point to help us understand north Korean propaganda:

“The term “Arduous March” is associated with an extremely trying situation and hunger. It originated in the approximately 100-day march by Kim Il Sung and his anti-Japan guerrilla unit in the late 1930s. The most recent Arduous March refers to the mid to late 1990s, when millions of North Koreans died from widespread hunger. The “spirit of the Arduous March” was announced in the 1996 New Year’s joint editorial by the party, army and Youth League dailies, North Korea’s most important policy document of the year.[5] North Korean state media articles regularly mention “Arduous March,” typically to recall the spirit with which the people tided over difficulties in the 1990s. On the other hand, this terminology has been attributed much less frequently to the leader. According to the ROK Ministry of Unification, Kim Jong Un has previously mentioned “Arduous March” in only three public speeches, all in historical contexts, unlike at the latest cell secretaries’ meeting.[6]”

In regards to this statement I think there is great potential for the conditions to eventually be worse than the famine of the 1990s with no hope of relief because there is no South Korean Sunshine policy to bail out the regime because of the contemporary sanctions regime that was not in place in the 1990s. The second reason is that the markets that developed and provided resilience up until this point in time have become severely restricted with the regime's implementation of its COVID mitigation measures which have been used as "cover" to crack down on economic and political activity that is a threat to the regime.

Excerpt: ”There is no evidence to suggest that North Korea’s economic situation is nearly as dire as the Arduous March of the 1990s. Unlike in 1996, Kim’s brief announcement of “Arduous March” at the party cell secretaries’ meeting was not presented as a policy guideline for the year. Choson Sinbo, a website operated by the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), claimed that the term “Arduous March” was not synonymous with economic difficulties but rather reflected a “life-and-death” resolve to carry out the decisions reached at the January Party Congress.[7] The article also pointed out that Kim’s use of the term was confined to the Workers’ Party this time, not the entire population as was the case in the past. Choson Sinbo appears to have editorial ties to Pyongyang and regularly publishes commentary on issues that North Korea itself seems reluctant to discuss.”

 

4. Sinpho South Shipyard: Submersible Missile Test Barge Returns to Secure Basin

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · April 14, 2021

Kim knows we are watching. We have to assume he is showing us what he wants us to see.

 

5. After an Electoral Loss, Will South Korea’s President Change His Policies?

carnegieendowment.org · by Chung Min Lee

From our good friend, Chung Min Lee.

Excerpts: “The PPP’s victory in the by-election provides a new political calculus and opens the possibility of the opposition sustaining its momentum through next year’s critical presidential election. Yet the path to victory is not assured. It will depend on whether the party can bring in outside big names and construct a united front, as they did in the by-elections. Former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol, who resigned in March after the Moon administration’s relentless efforts to diminish his office’s powers, is seen as a serious presidential contender. If the conservative party attracts Yoon and other outside candidates such as Ahn Cheol-soo (a software entrepreneur turned politician who bolstered the PPP’s victory in Seoul by joining hands with mayoral candidate Oh), then it will be able to field a unified candidate in the 2022 presidential contest.

But the burden is much heavier on the ruling party. The DP’s biggest obstacle is whether its powerful old guard will allow a new generation of party leaders to enact wrenching internal reforms, boost a new presidential candidate, and extricate the party from Moon’s influence. But so far, party stalwarts have refused to back down from the very policies that crushed the party in Seoul and Busan.

If the past four years is any guide, Moon and the wall of ideologues surrounding him, will stay the course and press on. In the last year of the Moon administration, it seems that policies rejected by millions of Korean voters and unstinting political hubris will continue to be core guiding principles.”

 

6. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: Continued Activity

CSIS · by  Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha · April 14, 2021

 

10. Pro-unification group denounces planned U.S. hearing on leaflet ban as 'interference in inter-Korean affairs'

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 15, 2021

We should keep in mind every time we talk about the north's nuclear weapons we reinforce regime legitimacy. On the other hand the focus on human rights is an existential threat to the regime.

 

11. Military to set up AI security system near border following N.K. man's crossing

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · April 15, 2021

AI cannot replace the enduring requirement for boots on the ground patrolling to actually interdict infiltration operations. Perhaps AI can assist but there is no substitute for boots on the ground.

 

12. North Korea: What we know about its missile and nuclear programme

news.yahoo.com · April 13, 2021

I believe I sent the original BBC report but this is useful information we should keep in mind.

 

13. Russian ambassador says no famine in North Korea, trade may resume soon

Reuters · by Josh Smith · April 15, 2021

A lot to parse in this report.

And there is this: “Matsegora said positive changes in relations between North Korea and the United States were unlikely due to the hard line taken by the new administration of President Joe Biden.

“Judging by how aggressively the Joe Biden administration is behaving on the Russian, Chinese and other fields, there are very few hopes for a positive scenario in Korean affairs,” he said.

 

14. North Korean educational authorities rank average test scores of students nationwide

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · April 15, 2021

Korea students in the north face two long term challenges that affect their intellectual capacity and ability to deal with the modern world, to include in unified Korea. First, the widespread malnutrition has not only the physical effects such as we see in stunted growth but also long term cognitive effects. Second, the curriculum in north Korea is dominated by ideological training and even STEM subjects are taught in the context of all that the Dear, Great, and Supreme leaders have done for the world in various areas. Students in north Korea will be ill-prepared to function in a modern society that does not follow the teachings of Jucje and the Kim family regime. This will be especially problematic during the unification process.

 

15.  China, North Korea border could be site of new projects, report says

upi.com  · by Elizabeth Shim · April 14, 2021

Probably only if Kim thinks he can maintain economic and political control in the region.

 

16. Left-wing education destroying the world’s liberal democratic system

onekoreanetwork.com  · Jebong Lee · April 14, 2021

A courageous view from South Korea.

 

17. Asean and Korea amid mounting US-China rivalry

straitstimes.com · by Lee Hyuk · April 14, 2021

Excerpts: “The US-China confrontation is an even more difficult challenge for Korea. The new Cold War between the US and China is unfolding on every front, and the dynamics of their competition over security, economy, political systems and values all carry deep implications for Korea.

Korea today is often touted as a democratic and economic miracle, and such achievements have been possible, to a substantial degree, because of its alliance with the US.

The US counts on Korea to remain its steadfast ally committed to defending shared values and strategic interests.”

 

-----------

 

Science must become Art....Of the two fields into which we have divided the conduct of war, tactics and strategy, the theory of the latter contains unquestionably, as before observed, the greatest difficulties, because the first is almost limited to a circumscribed field of objects, but the latter in the direction of objects leading directly to peace, opens to itself an unlimited field of possibilities. 

...

War is part of the intercourse of the human race. We say therefore, war belongs not to the province of arts and sciences, but to the province of social life.

- Clausewitz

 

“The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.”

...

Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory: (1) He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight; (2) he will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces; (3) he will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks; (4) he will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared; (5) he will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.” 

- Sun Tzu

 

 

 

 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1.  ODNI Releases 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

2. Unconventional Warfare and Foreign Internal Defense in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia

3.  Will Afghanistan Become a Terrorism Safe Haven Once Again?

4. Afghanistan’s Situation Didn’t Change. American Politics Did

5. That Suburban Home Buyer Could Be a Foreign Government

6. China Poses Biggest Threat to U.S., Intelligence Report Says

7. Israelis May Ban High Tech Cars From Bases: ‘Perfect Espionage Vector’

8. National Defense Strategy 'unrealistic,' says House Armed Services chairman

9. Misinformation in the Military Community and the Next National Security Strategy

10. American Vulnerabilities in an Age of Great Power Competition: The Case for Understanding Domestic Extremism through an Irregular Warfare Lens

11. Getting Serious About Women, Peace & Security

12. Opinion | Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

13. Biden’s Afghan Exit

14. Japan Is Now Our Most Important Ally. Here’s Why.

15. Big changes coming to Army Stryker brigades

16. Personnel spending cuts won’t help military readiness, key lawmaker warn

17. Number of US Troops Linked to Domestic Terror Plots Small but Growing

18. Would Russia Invade Ukraine and China Invade Taiwan Simultaneously?

19. Troops are Leaving Afghanistan. Can the U.S. Still Advise Afghan Security Forces?

20. China’s Dystopian “New IP” Plan Shows Need for Renewed US Commitment to Internet Governance

21. FDD | Diplomatic Malpractice: Reforming the WHO After China’s COVID Cover-up

22. FDD | Biden Administration Nominates Key Cyber Personnel

23. ‘Last Out: Elegy of a Green Beret’ adapted to film

24. Secret and Careful: How America Spied On Imperial Japan in China

25. The Special Forces op that supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq

26. Intelligence officials reassert their role post-Trump

 

1. ODNI Releases 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community

odni.gov · by ODNI Office of Strategic Communications

The 27 page unclassified report here:

Excerpts: “Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang have demonstrated the capability and intent to advance their interests at the expense of the United States and its allies, despite the pandemic. China increasingly is a near-peer competitor, challenging the United States in multiple arenas—especially economically, militarily, and technologically—and is pushing to change global norms. Russia is pushing back against Washington where it can globally, employing techniques up to and including the use of force. Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and North Korea will be a disruptive player on the regional and world stages. Major adversaries and competitors are enhancing and exercising their military, cyber, and other capabilities, raising the risks to US and allied forces, weakening our conventional deterrence, and worsening the longstanding threat from weapons of mass destruction. 

 

NORTH KOREAN PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may take a number of aggressive and potentially destabilizing actions to reshape the regional security environment and drive wedges between the United States and its allies—up to and including the resumption of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) testing. 

· We assess that Kim views nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent against foreign intervention and believes that over time he will gain international acceptance and respect as a nuclear power. He probably does not view the current level of pressure on his regime as enough to require a fundamental change in its approach. 

· Kim also aims to achieve his goals of gaining prestige, security, and acceptance as a nuclear power through conventional military modernization efforts, nuclear weapon and missile development, foreign engagement, sanctions-evasion, and cyber capabilities. 

 

Military Capabilities 

North Korea will pose an increasing threat to the United States, South Korea, and Japan as it continues to improve its conventional military capabilities, providing Kim with diverse tools to advance his political objectives or inflict heavy losses if North Korea were attacked. 

· Pyongyang portrayed a growing and more diverse strategic and tactical ballistic missile force during its January 2021 and October 2020 military parades. 

 

WMD 

North Korea will be a WMD threat for the foreseeable future, because Kim remains strongly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons, the country is actively engaged in ballistic missile research and development, and Pyongyang’s CBW efforts persist. 

· Despite announcing an end to North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing in December 2019, Kim thus far has not conducted long-range missile testing and has left the door open to future denuclearization talks with the United States. Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on Pyongyang’s terms. 

 

Cyber 

North Korea’s cyber program poses a growing espionage, theft, and attack threat. 

· Pyongyang probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States, judging from its operations during the past decade, and it may be able to conduct operations that compromise software supply chains. 

North Korea has conducted cyber theft against financial institutions and cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, potentially stealing hundreds of millions of dollars, probably to fund government priorities, such as its nuclear and missile programs. 

 

2.  Unconventional Warfare and Foreign Internal Defense in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia

DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms

Some doctrinal background on UW and FID.

The two key Title 10 special operations missions are unconventional warfare and foreign internal defense. Below are four key definitions from the JP 1-02.

The definitions are short and simple. The UW definition was shortened by a USSOCOM working group in 2009 because the CDR, USSOCOM at the time wanted an easy to articulate and easily understood definition of UW to improve understanding and acceptance outside of SOF. However, this sacrificed more detailed understanding and a certain level of intellectual rigor.  In reality if a practitioner wants to know more about the concepts he/she has to go to the relevant doctrinal manual but of course few outside the SOF community do so (and probably many within the SOF community do not do so either). However, up until 1997 DOD used to produce something called the Joint Encyclopedia which I believe served as the bridge between the DOD Dictionary and detailed doctrinal publications. 

Below I have provided the terms from the current JP 1-02 followed by the entries in the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia. UW and FID are two of the most misunderstood and undervalued special operations missions and the reason for that is few outside of the SF and SOF community read the doctrine. However, if we would resurrect the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia we might be able to provide useful information to help understand the UW and FID missions (and all the other concepts well beyond SOF in the 737 page encyclopedia).  These entries provide another level of description and understanding of the concepts in the DOD Dictionary. 

I think you can see that UW in particular is a very comprehensive and robust mission and not just about overthrowing a government with guerrilla forces which is the subconscious definition for most people.

I offer these Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia entries as a "public service" for those who want to have a better understanding of the UW and FID missions but cannot do the deep dive necessary in the doctrine.  I would argue that these are critical concepts for irregular warfare, support to political warfare and campaigns as part of Great Power Competition and operations in the "gray zone."

From the January 2021 Joint Pub 2-01 DOD Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms

special forces — United States Army forces organized, trained, and equipped to conduct special operations with an emphasis on unconventional warfare capabilities. Also called SF. (JP 3-05)

subversion — Actions designed to undermine the military, economic, psychological, or political strength or morale of a governing authority. See also unconventional warfare. (JP 3-24)

unconventional warfare — Activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary, and guerrilla force in a denied area. Also called UW. (JP 3-05)

foreign internal defense — Participation by civilian agencies and military forces of a government or international organizations in any of the programs and activities undertaken by a host nation government to free and protect its society from subversion, lawlessness, insurgency, terrorism, and other threats to its security. Also called FID. (JP 3-22)

This is an excerpt from the Joint Doctrine Encyclopedia which is still posted on the DTIC web site. The latest version is from 1997.

 

3. Will Afghanistan Become a Terrorism Safe Haven Once Again?

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt · April 13, 2021

And what if it does sooner rather than later? What is our response?

 

4. Afghanistan’s Situation Didn’t Change. American Politics Did

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

A very interesting question in the subtitle. Can we fight terrorism in a new way?

 

5. That Suburban Home Buyer Could Be a Foreign Government

WSJ · by Konrad Putzier

I have been observing a lot of homes in suburban Alexandria being sold very quickly at very high prices. Now I wonder if foreign governments are buying these.

Excerpts: “Today, more U.S. real-estate companies and Wall Street firms are buying in bulk or building single-family rental homes specifically for rentals, allowing foreign investors to back them with large sums of money.

Home builder Lennar Corp. , for example, recently launched a venture to buy single-family rental homes across the country. The company said it already has commitments from investors for $1.25 billion and will use that to buy $4 billion worth of homes. A number of these investors are based or affiliated with companies abroad, say people familiar with the matter. That includes Allianz Real Estate, a subsidiary of the German insurance giant, which said it committed $300 million.

In the U.S., Allianz had focused mostly on office skyscrapers in big cities, which tend to be easier to buy and sell. It then branched out to warehouses and apartments. The firm started discussions with Lennar about the venture in early 2020.

Unlike a decade ago, when investors bought foreclosed homes and those already occupied, the focus is now on newly built properties. “The lack of institutional ownership just shows you how difficult it is to get into the market,” said Christoph Donner, who heads Allianz Real Estate’s North America business.

 

6. China Poses Biggest Threat to U.S., Intelligence Report Says

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Typically, the director of national intelligence delivers the threat assessment to Congress and releases a written report alongside it. But no declassified assessment was issued last year, as the Trump administration’s intelligence agencies sought to avoid angering the White House.

In 2019, Dan Coats, then the director of national intelligence, delivered an analysis of threats from Iran, North Korea and the Islamic State that was at odds with President Donald J. Trump’s views. The testimony prompted Mr. Trump to lash out on Twitter, admonishing his intelligence chiefs to “go back to school.”

Avril D. Haines, the director of national intelligence; William J. Burns, the C.I.A. director; and other top intelligence officials will testify about the report on Wednesday and Thursday.

“The American people should know as much as possible about the threats facing our nation and what their intelligence agencies are doing to protect them,” said Ms. Haines, whose office released the report.

 

7. Israelis May Ban High Tech Cars From Bases: ‘Perfect Espionage Vector’

breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi and Brad D. Williams · April 13, 2021

Wow. This is an interesting OPSEC problem.

Excerpts: “Some countries, including China, have already banned Tesla cars from entering military bases. This has prompted Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk to publicly defend the company.

The company’s Beijing office issued a statement regarding its onboard cameras on Chinese microblogging site Weibo. Last month, speaking virtually at the China Development Forum, Musk said, “If a commercial company did engage in spying, the negative effects to that company would be extremely bad.” He added the company would be “shut down everywhere.”

But Tesla, the company, as a threat actor is only part of the concern for military services. Another, perhaps far more serious threat, would be other governments hacking the cars as a means of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance on bases — or for more reckless or dangerous purposes. In particular, Iran has not shied away from conducting destructive and reckless cyberattacks against its regional adversaries in the past. Following an Israeli cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility on Sunday, tensions are high between Israel and Iran.

If the IDF does ban cars, the leased cars and those owned by the IDF and equipped with cameras and GPS may be parked outside the bases that will operate shuttle services from the main gate. The IDF and other sensitive facilities stopped the use of video equipment made in China several years ago after some experts said that some of these systems had a “backdoor” that could enable someone to see what the video equipment sees.

Other security experts told Breaking Defense that the danger of hacking military systems calls for “hardening” certain subsystems that may be affected remotely by hostile parties.

The IDF is operating a massive cyber defense operation, but experts who spoke with Breaking Defense said that while main systems are protected, the danger can be posed by “basic threats” like connected cars.

 

8. National Defense Strategy 'unrealistic,' says House Armed Services chairman

Stars and Stripes · by Sarah Cammarata · April 13, 2021

The key question and the essence of strategy: What is truly necessary and possible?

Excerpts: “Smith argued the document’s long list of aims – winning an “all-out” war with China, countering Russian aggression, bolstering the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and deterring North Korea – is not only extremely costly, but requires more military personnel to achieve than the U.S. has now.

“We don’t have the people to meet that many different needs, to fight that many battles at the same time… we’re sort of perpetually chasing our tail,” he said.

Smith said, for example, combatant commanders frequently complain that requests they make for forces, whether that includes aircraft carriers, troops, drones or planes, go unfilled.

“We need to get back to a core principle of what is truly necessary and what is possible,” the congressman said.

 

9. Misinformation in the Military Community and the Next National Security Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · by Matthew G. Butler · April 14, 2021

This is analysis I did not expect. Some food for thought.

Conclusion: “In conclusion, the next National Security Strategy must address misinformation within the military community. If the next National Security Strategy forces that introspection, military leaders can work toward possible solutions throughout the community. Secretary Austin committed “to rid our ranks of racists and extremists” during his Senate confirmation hearing.[26] Furthermore, Austin emphasized the criticality of fighting internal threats within the military to ensure the Department of Defense could fight external adversaries.[27] Misinformation creates fog and friction in the battlespace of the mind. The National Security Strategy sets the tone throughout the national security enterprise and, specifically, provides senior leadership guidance to thwart misinformation among service members, veterans, and military family members. Lastly, misinformation must be addressed throughout the continuum of military affiliation, crossing multiple departments from Defense to Veterans Affairs and into broader society. Twenty percent of the arrested and charged January Insurrectionists were veterans spurred by misinformation to join hundreds of individual threats (in the form of fellow Americans) to national security.[28] The next National Security Strategy can serve as a response to a genuine need in the military community as well as defense against potential domestic insurgents.”

 

10. American Vulnerabilities in an Age of Great Power Competition: The Case for Understanding Domestic Extremism through an Irregular Warfare Lens

mwi.usma.edu · by Wes J. Bryant · April 14, 2021

Conclusion: “In examining how we can better protect our nation, its interests, and the American people, the United States must make a deliberate shift inward to assess domestic vulnerabilities from the perspective of those who can, and will, exploit them. Perhaps it is even more fitting, in this context, to borrow wisdom from the rich cultural and military history of one of those very adversaries, for as Sun Tzu reminds us: “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”

 

11. Getting Serious About Women, Peace & Security

thestrategybridge.org · Joan Johnson-Freese and Nalani Tyrrell · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “During the May 2019 House Intelligence hearing, more transparent strategies in granting security clearances, clear feedback from promotion boards, and more blind hiring practices were raised by intelligence community representatives for implementation within the intelligence community. Those procedures, and committed leadership at every level, will further promote inclusive diversity in the intelligence community. The military should make similarly appropriate efforts as well, as cogently pointed out by a female member of the Air Force cyber warriors team, else risk an even bigger shortage of cyber specialists than already expected.

Leadership at all security related organizations must—perhaps for the first time—read and commit to implementation of the Women, Peace and Security framework for entrenched policies and practices to change. They must understand and assure their subordinates do as well, that implementation of the Women, Peace and Security framework is not a “nice thing to do” but a 21st century security imperative. Including it in the National Security Strategy is a good way to assure that happens.”

 

12. Opinion | Biden takes the easy way out of Afghanistan. The likely result is disaster.

The Washington Post · by the Editorial Board · April 13, 2021

The Washington Post Editorial Board is critical of President Biden's decision.

 

13. Biden’s Afghan Exit

WSJ · by the Editorial Board  ·April 13, 2021

The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board is also critical of President Biden's decision.

 

14. Japan Is Now Our Most Important Ally. Here’s Why.

hudson.org · by Kenneth R. Weinstein

This may not be helpful with our broader alliance structure. Our Korean allies may have an emotional response to this. We have avoided the "rating" by calling our alliances the cornerstone (Japan) and linchpin (Korea).

 

15.  Big changes coming to Army Stryker brigades

armytimes.com · by Todd South · April 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Speaking at the annual Maneuver Capabilities Development and Integration Directorate out of the Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia, on April 7, Mason laid out both the changes to the formation and gear that SBCT soldiers will see in the near and long-term future.

For soldiers, some of the bigger changes will come in the setup of the formation.

The Army plans to add an electronic warfare platoon, a cyberspace electromagnetic activities cell, drones, additive manufacturing and drone maintenance platoons, an additional platoon to each cavalry squadron, two more artillery guns per battery, a third engineer company, robotic combat vehicle operators and an attached Mobile Short-Range Air Defense from the division level.”

 

16. Personnel spending cuts won’t help military readiness, key lawmaker warn

militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · April 13, 2021

Pennywise and pound foolish. Servicemembers will pay the bill.

 

17. Number of US Troops Linked to Domestic Terror Plots Small but Growing

voanews.com · by Jeff Seldin

Based on Seth Jones' recent CSIS report.

 

18. Would Russia Invade Ukraine and China Invade Taiwan Simultaneously?

19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · April 11, 2021

Daniel Davis provides us with one very worst case planning scenario.

 

19. Troops are Leaving Afghanistan. Can the U.S. Still Advise Afghan Security Forces?

realcleardefense.com · by Alexander Powell

Sure. We will call them advisors and not combat troops and put a force cap on the mission and then forget about it. 

But seriously, this is a discussion of a concept of a "remote advisory cell."

Conclusion: “In conclusion, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State remain present in Afghanistan, and the U.S. retains an enduring interest in keeping counterterrorism pressure on those groups. As long as the Taliban waver on their counterterrorism commitments, the Afghan Air Force and SOF are the United States’ chief and best options for conducting counterterrorism operations absent a U.S. troop presence on the ground. A remote advisory cell is a feasible option for maintaining security cooperation relationships with critical Afghan partner units, though it should adhere to the common features identified above to be as effective as possible. The Taliban, meanwhile, are unlikely to readily accept the establishment of a remote advisory cell, limiting the idea’s utility to specific circumstances. Even so, a remote advisory cell may have domestic political benefits given the increased force protection and likely reduced costs it would afford over the current U.S. footprint in Afghanistan.”

 

20. China’s Dystopian “New IP” Plan Shows Need for Renewed US Commitment to Internet Governance

Just Security · by Mark Montgomery and Theo Lebryk · April 13, 2021

Conclusion: “The United States cannot afford a similar failure to compete, as was the case in international fora associated with 5G development and international cybercrime. Chinese dominance in standardization will cost American firms market share and can open the door for more Chinese backdoors around the globe. Huawei dominance on New IP and 6G would not only create a less free, less interoperable internet, it would pave the way for authoritarian governments to gain expanded say over future changes to the internet for years to come.

The Chinese New IP proposal can be successfully contested, but only if the United States rallies its private-industry partners and like-minded international democratic governments to the cause. They must all work together to collectively rein in the threat of authoritarian governments using multilateral institutions such as the ITU to export their vision of the internet worldwide before it is too late.”

 

21. FDD | Diplomatic Malpractice: Reforming the WHO After China’s COVID Cover-up

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · April 13, 2021

Excerpt: “The anniversary of the first COVID-19 lockdowns came and went, and yet the world remains no closer to understanding the virus’ true origins. Nor is the WHO positioned to respond more effectively to the next global pandemic, which may be only years, not decades, away. Chinese authorities have actively obstructed the investigation into COVID-19’s origins and deserve ample condemnation for putting global health at risk. Yet the WHO also bears substantial responsibility for the current impasse. It has resisted multiple efforts to implement reforms after previous failures to deal effectively with outbreaks of infectious diseases, including SARS and Ebola. Nor does the WHO’s current leadership appear capable of standing up to member states such as China that undermine its work. Finally, the United States bears some responsibility for the WHO’s flawed performance, since Washington has donated billions of taxpayer dollars to the organization without demanding any accountability in return. After the devastation wrought by COVID-19, continued engagement without a serious campaign for WHO reform would be nothing short of diplomatic malpractice.”

 

22. FDD | Biden Administration Nominates Key Cyber Personnel

fdd.org · by  Mark Montgomery · April 13, 2021

 

23. ‘Last Out: Elegy of a Green Beret’ adapted to film

armytimes.com · by Harm Venhuizen · April 14, 2021

 

24.  Secret and Careful: How America Spied On Imperial Japan in China

The National Interest · by Warfare History Network · April 13, 2021

Some often overlooked history of the OSS in WWII.

 

25. The Special Forces op that supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq

wearethemighty.com · by Miguel Ortiz · March 19, 2021

An often overlooked mission.

 

26. Intelligence officials reassert their role post-Trump

CNN · by Katie Bo Williams, Kylie Atwood and Zachary Cohen

 

----------

 

"I have noticed that nothing I never said ever did me any harm." 

- Calvin Coolidge

 

"I will not disgrace the soldier's arms, nor abandon the comrade who stands at my side, but whether alone or with many,

I will fight to defend things sacred and profane.

I will hand down my country not lessened, but larger and better than I have received it."

-  Athenian Oath

 

 "I cannot give birth to wisdom myself and the accusation that many make against me, that while I question other, I myself bring nothing wise to light due to my lack of wisdom, is accurate. The reason for this is as follows: God forces me to serve as a midwife and prevents me from giving brith."

- Socrates

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea may be considering resumption of nuclear testing this year: U.S. report

2. N.Korea Backtracks on Ban of Open-Air Markets

3. North Korea Could Have 250 Nuclear Weapons by 2027, Report States

4. Sanctions on North Korea effective despite illicit activity, analyst says

5. KLO members to finally receive compensation, but not much (South Korea)

6. [Interview] Attorney for N. Korean human rights says US only listens to politically charged defectors

7. South warned to not ‘downplay’ U.S. Congress's anti-leaflet hearing

8. North Korea best handled with allies

9. Korea's diplomatic capacity lacking

10. U.S. Spy Chiefs Warn of Threats From China to Climate Cha

11. Sanatorium director in N. Pyongan Province arrested for selling bottled water at inflated prices

12. N. Korean Workers' Party releases new information about recently-established Ministry of Justice

13. Pro-Pyongyang media denies economic hardship after 'Arduous March' speech

14. Korean American Nominated for U.S. State Dept. Job

15. Number of incoming N. Korean defectors dropped by 77 pct on-year in Q1: official

16. S. Korea again marks world's lowest birthrate: UN report

 

1. N. Korea may be considering resumption of nuclear testing this year: U.S. report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 14, 2021

From the Threat Assessment: Despite announcing an end to North Korea’s self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons and ICBM testing in December 2019, Kim thus far has not conducted long-range missile testing and has left the door open to future denuclearization talks with the United States. Kim may be considering whether to resume long-range missile or nuclear testing this year to try to force the United States to deal with him on Pyongyang’s terms. 

 

2.  N.Korea Backtracks on Ban of Open-Air Markets

english.chosun.com · April 12, 2021

Perhaps Kim is realizing that if he does not allow these markets to function it is going to create blowback that he may not be able to control.

Does this provide an indication of possible resistance potential in the future?

 

3. North Korea Could Have 250 Nuclear Weapons by 2027, Report States

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 13, 2021

From the joint RAND/Asan report here. 

 

4. Sanctions on North Korea effective despite illicit activity, analyst says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 13, 2021

There is one way that sanctions are working that I think is too often overlooked.  Kim raised expectations in. 2018 with his military and elite that he could "play" trump and Moon and get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. He has failed to do this and some escapees (defectors) tell me this is the biggest failure by any of the three Kims.  This is generating tremendous internal pressure on Kim.  This is the kind of pressure that could cause Kim to change his strategy.  Yes we would like better enforcement of sanctions and we should call out Chinese and Russian complicity in sanctions evasion activities.  But even though we could improve enforcement, the key point for the Biden administration is to not make sanctions relief part of the new strategy.

On the other hand we should not be duped by the argument that sanctions are hurting the Korean people in the north. The reason they are suffering is solely due to the policy decisions of Kim Jong-un. He has chosen to prioritize his nuclear and missile programs, conventional military modernization, and support for the regime legitimacy over the welfare of the Korean people in the north. Kim Has the power and the resources (especially through his illicit activities) to ease the suffering of the Korean people but he chooses not to help them while demanding the utmost loyalty from them

 

5. KLO members to finally receive compensation, but not much (South Korea)

koreanjoongangdaily.joings.com · April 13, 2021

These partisan and Korean patriots were caught in the ultimate catch-22.  They were fighting for the freedom of their country but not in the Korean military.  They fought under the UN Command which of course doesn't provide benefits and compensation as a nation state does to its military members.  This is part of the moral hazard we can create in unconventional warfare when working through, with, and by indigenous forces. 

I recall meeting partisan commander Park many times over the years at the annual celebration at their memorial Kangwha Island in the Han River Estuary.  We could see his house on the north Korean side. He was a high school teacher in what was then South Korea.  When the north invaded he took his class south and eventually linked up with the UN forces and joined the partisans.  they were trained in parachute operations by US forces and then conducted 61 parachute infiltrations into north Korea to gather intelligence - exfiltration was on foot conducting a passage through the front lines.

Here is a link to SOF in the Korea War from the USASOC Historian's Office. There are a number of articles on the 8240th and the Korean partisans and the wide range of operations they conducted.

 

6. [Interview] Attorney for N. Korean human rights says US only listens to politically charged defectors

Hani · by Kwon Hyuk-chul · April 09, 2021

This human rights lawyer is a late addition to the witness list for the Korean human rights hearing by the Lantos commission in Congress tomorrow (information at this link).  I wonder about the backstory about she ended up on the witness list.

Her views are insulting not only to the US but to the Koreans from the north who have escaped. 

 

7. South warned to not ‘downplay’ U.S. Congress's anti-leaflet hearing

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Yoo Jee-Hye and Sarah Kim

This is going to create more friction in the alliance but it must be done. This law is harmful to so many on so many levels - and it impacts the alliance since it actually provides support to Kim Jong-un .

 

8. North Korea best handled with allies

The Korea Times · by Arthur I Cyr · April 13, 2021

Concur.

But I wonder why Mr. Cyr does not give credit to Kim Young Sam (who was one of the "three Kims") being elected in 1993 as the transition point for South Korean democracy or why he chose to mention the Nobel Peace Prize when we all know the facts surrounding it.

“Democratic change culminated with election in 1998 of President Kim Dae-jung, heroic opponent of dictatorship. In 2000, he received the Nobel Peace Prize. During the earlier dictatorship, Kim survived imprisonment and at least one attempt to kill him. Occasional political turmoil since 1998 confirms South Korea's democracy.

As in the past, U.S. leaders should work with allies, underscore military commitment, and pursue negotiation. The Biden administrations deployment of traditional diplomacy is encouraging.”

 

9. Korea's diplomatic capacity lacking

The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · April 14, 2021

The nuclear waste water issue with Japan is a complicated one.

Excerpts: “Despite its strong protest, Korea has a few options such as reinforcing radiation testing on imported food products and inspections of supply chain origins for food imports.

"I am furious about what the government has done so far about the issue that is directly linked to the people's safety," Rep. Joo Ho-young, the acting leader of the main opposition People Power Party, said Wednesday.

Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, said, "The government needs to join forces with countries that will be immediately affected by the radioactive water such as China, Taiwan and Russia to reflect their position on Japan's decision."

 

10. U.S. Spy Chiefs Warn of Threats From China to Climate Change

Bloomberg · by Tony Capaccio, Chris Strohm and Peter Martin · April 13, 2021

 

11. Sanatorium director in N. Pyongan Province arrested for selling bottled water at inflated prices

dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · April 14, 2021

No surprise about north Korean corruption.  Everyone is trying to survive.

 

12. N. Korean Workers' Party releases new information about recently-established Ministry of Justice

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · April 14, 2021

Note the central importance of the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD).

 

13. Pro-Pyongyang media denies economic hardship after 'Arduous March' speech

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · April 14, 2021

It is hard to walk this back.

 

14. Korean American Nominated for U.S. State Dept. Job

english.chosun.com

 

15.  Number of incoming N. Korean defectors dropped by 77 pct on-year in Q1: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 14, 2021

Escapees.  Please call them escapees.

We are seeing the results of the Kim family regime's draconian population and resources control measures.

 

16. S. Korea again marks world's lowest birthrate: UN report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 14, 2021

This Is going to be a long term national security issue making unification that much more important to Korea.

 

------------

 

"I have noticed that nothing I never said ever did me any harm." 

- Calvin Coolidge

 

"I will not disgrace the soldier's arms, nor abandon the comrade who stands at my side, but whether alone or with many,

I will fight to defend things sacred and profane.

I will hand down my country not lessened, but larger and better than I have received it."

-  Athenian Oath