An different methodology for countering adversary influence operations

https://mwi.usma.edu/psyop-cyber-and-infowar-combating-the-new-age-ied/

An analysis and recommendation for expanding U.S. irregular warfare approaches beyond enemy-centric methodologies

Article: https://mwi.usma.edu/pulling-levers-not-triggers-beyond-direct-and-indirect-approaches-to-irregular-warfare/

Special News Item & Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

Blue Roof Politics · by TK · April 7, 2021

For those who follow South Korea domestic politics here is a useful initial analysis of the elections today.

From this analysis we can see domestic issues as the driving force behind the conservative "sweep." 

Significant excerpt: “Exit polls show that young men are rapidly turning conservative.  This election is the first real-world manifestation of the trend that has been appearing in the opinion polls for the past few years: young men of South Korea - particularly those in the 20s, and to a lesser degree in their 30s - are making a sharp conservative turn. According to the exit polls, 72.5% of male voters who are in their 20s and younger voted for the conservative candidate - higher even than the male voters who are in their 60s and older. In contrast, 44% of the female voters who are in their 20s and younger voted for the liberal candidate, one of only two demographics that favored Park Yeong-seon over O Se-hun. No other age group shows this level of gender gap, indicating a particularly toxic brand of sexism among South Korea's young men.”

The question for us is how will this affect the Moon administration between now and the 2022 Presidential election? (and will a conservative candidate win that election breaking the cycle of 2 liberal presidents followed by 2 conservative presidents followed by 2 liberal presidents?) And more specifically how will this affect the Moon administration's north Korea policy (the peace agenda) and the ROK/US alliance?  This will require further analysis and I hope to hear from my Korean friends about this.

Graphics at the link.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: North Korea Moves Submersible Missile Test Stand Barge

2. Sinpho South Shipyard: Repositioning of the Submersible Test Barge

3. N. Korea moves submersible missile test stand barge: U.S. think tank

4. More movement in North further raises suspicions of SLBM test

5. N.K. urges 'cell secretaries' to root out anti-socialist practices

6. Kim Jong-un calls on party’s grassroots members to cut antisocialist practices

7. Kim Jong-un says North Korea facing its 'worst-ever situation'

8. Defense minister, EU military chief vow to boost security ties

9. New "hypersonic missile technology" college created at North Korea's national defense university

10. US alliance bedrock of South Korea's foreign policy

11. South Koreans vote for key city offices as political winds shift

12. South Korean Conservatives Are on the Rise a Year Before Presidential Election

13. Biased National Election Commission decisions raise questions in the run-up to Seoul and Busan by-elections

14. South Koreans see politics as a choice between two bad options

15. Iran considering release of seized Korean oil tanker

16. Cheonan warship families urge Moon to announce that N. Korea was behind it

17. High-wire act for Seoul in balancing ties with US and China

18. Toward stronger US security ties with Seoul, Tokyo

 

1. Sinpo South Shipyard Update: North Korea Moves Submersible Missile Test Stand Barge

CSIS · by Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Jennifer Jun · April 6, 2021

This report is generating some speculation and reporting but note Joe Bermmudez' assessment is that it does not mean an SLBM test is imminent. 

 

2. Sinpho South Shipyard: Repositioning of the Submersible Test Barge

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · April 6, 2021

Excerpt: "The purpose for repositioning the test barge to the construction hall at this time is unclear. It may be to make room in the secure boat basin for the new submarine. Alternatively, since it is berthed behind the floating drydock, the North Koreans may be preparing to float it into the drydock or onto the marine railway to undergo maintenance or to move it inside the construction hall for modifications. The barge was designed for testing of the Pukguksong-1. As two new, untested Pukguksong missiles were displayed in recent military parades, the barge may need modifications to accommodate newer generation missiles."

 

3. N. Korea moves submersible missile test stand barge: U.S. think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 7, 2021

 

4. More movement in North further raises suspicions of SLBM test

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee

Isn't the blackmail diplomacy (the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions) so obvious?

Excerpt: “The U.S. president’s comments are a provocation and encroachment on our country’s right to self-defense,” said Ri Pyong-chol, the vice chairman of the North’s Central Military Commission, in a statement issued March 27. “If the United States continues with its thoughtless remarks without thinking of the consequences, it may be faced with something not good.” 

 

5. N.K. urges 'cell secretaries' to root out anti-socialist practices

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 7, 2021

These statements provide important insight into the nature of the Kim family regime.

The regime has few "policy tools" other than doubling down on regime ideology as the response to every problem. Perhaps more importantly, this report indicates how much Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people living in the north. The development of political resistance among the population is an existential threat to the regime. It is a greater threat than COVID, sanctions, natural disasters, and the ROK/US alliance.

 

6. Kim Jong-un calls on party’s grassroots members to cut antisocialist practices

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim

For north Korea, ideology is everything.

 

7. Kim Jong-un says North Korea facing its 'worst-ever situation'

The Korea Times · April 7, 2021

Is this the true test of Kim Jong-un's leadership? Is this the inflection point in the 70 + year history of the Kim family regime? Are we ready for the possible contingencies that might come next?

Excerpts: ”North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has acknowledged his country was facing the ''worst-ever situation'' as he addressed thousands of grassroots members of his ruling party during a major political conference in Pyongyang.

Experts say Kim is facing perhaps his toughest moment as he approaches a decade in rule, with North Korea's coronavirus lockdown unleashing further shock on an economy devastated by decades of mismanagement and crippling U.S.-led sanctions over his nuclear weapons program.

We should not forget that the reason for the suffering of the Korean people in the north is the sole responsibility of Kim Jong-un and his deliberate policy decisions.

 

8. Defense minister, EU military chief vow to boost security ties

The Korea Times · April 7, 2021

This could signal an important development as European countries increase their presence in Asia (re: Quad - note naval exercise in the Indian Ocean that will include France and the UK). The ROK is not going to be left out of broader relationships even as it tries to balance relationships with the PRC and the US.

 

9. New "hypersonic missile technology" college created at North Korea's national defense university

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 7, 2021

The military is the priority and there has never been a deviation from Military FIrst politics.

Excerpt:  “The authorities want to produce more national defense specialists by teaching them about hypersonic weapon design, production, and research,” the source said. “Starting next year, incoming students will face much higher criteria regarding test scores than other places.”

 

10. US alliance bedrock of South Korea's foreign policy

straitstimes.com · April 7, 2021

There is a lot to unpack in this short essay but these excerpts really sum up Korea's strategic situation and issues:

The bedrock of its survival and growth has been the US alliance.

South Korea needs to engage actively in exchanges and trade with China, but regarding security and related high-tech issues, it should clarify its position of alignment with the US.

The Moon administration has assumed a submissive attitude to North Korea to bring it to the negotiation table. But the Hanoi summit showed clearly that Pyongyang has no intention of denuclearising.

Talks only for the sake of talks are meaningless. Dialogue is important, but sanctions are the only realistic means to deter North Korea's threats.

The first thing for South Korea to do is to figure out, with its allies, how to apply more effective sanctions against the North.

 

11. South Koreans vote for key city offices as political winds shift

Reuters · by Josh Smith, Sangmi Cha · April 7, 2021

Will there be a rudder adjustment to South Korean domestic politics?

 

12. South Korean Conservatives Are on the Rise a Year Before Presidential Election

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong and Timothy W. Martin

Will there be a conservative wave in these and upcoming elections (through the Presidential election next year)? 

Excerpts: “The winners of the Seoul and Busan mayor elections will hold office for about a year, as they are finishing terms started by others. Seoul’s ex-mayor was found dead last July in an apparent suicide—after his ex-secretary went to the police to file a complaint accusing him of sexual misconduct. Busan’s former mayor resigned months earlier due to a sexual harassment scandal.

South Korea’s conservatives lost three major elections in three years—and renamed their party three times during that period. Last year they renamed it the People Power Party. A victory in the mayoral races in the country’s two biggest cities would give them momentum, local political experts say.

“If the conservatives win, it would mark a revival for them and a return of the conservatives as a legitimate political power base that might contend for the presidency,” said Kang Won-taek, a professor of politics at Seoul National University.

 

13. Biased National Election Commission decisions raise questions in the run-up to Seoul and Busan by-elections

onekoreanetwork.com · April 7, 2021

Biased National Election Commission decisions raise questions in the run-up to Seoul and Busan by-elections

 

14. South Koreans see politics as a choice between two bad options

The Economist · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: “Even those without feminist sensibilities have plenty of reasons for dismay. The government’s failure to make housing more affordable has been compounded in recent weeks by the revelation that officials from the agency in charge of new housing developments had profited from inside information on big land deals. On Monday Kim Sang-jo, Mr Moon’s top economic adviser and the architect of the government’s flagship corporate-governance reforms, resigned after it emerged that he had substantially raised the rent on a flat he owned two days before a new tenant-protection law would have limited the increase. Covid-19 restrictions, a slow vaccine rollout and a sluggish economic recovery are eroding the goodwill the government earned by managing the early stages of the pandemic well.

But voters are not enamoured with the conservative opposition, says Mr Kang of SNU. “If they win the mayoral elections,” he says, “it will not be the opposition’s victory but the ruling party’s defeat.” That is mainly because the conservatives have developed little in the way of new ideas or personalities since the previous president, Park Geun-hye, was impeached for corruption four years ago. The voices of young people and particularly of young women are woefully under-represented in both main parties. Oh Se-hoon, the conservative candidate for mayor of Seoul (pictured on previous page), held the office until ten years ago. “It says a lot that they haven’t found a better candidate in a decade,” says Mr Kang. As the government stumbles and the opposition remains stuck in its ways, disillusionment is likely only to deepen. ■

 

15.  Iran considering release of seized Korean oil tanker

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by Sarah Kim

What will Iranian blackmail diplomacy cost?

 

16. Cheonan warship families urge Moon to announce that N. Korea was behind it

donga.com · April 7, 2021

This should not be a difficult action at all. And it saddens me to think President Moon will not call out Kim Jong-un for the regime's murderous behavior.

 

17. High-wire act for Seoul in balancing ties with US and China

SCMP · April 7, 2021

High-wire act for Seoul in balancing ties with US and China

As with many countries in the region, South Korea is being wooed by both Beijing and Washington and does not need or want to choose sides

 

18. Toward stronger US security ties with Seoul, Tokyo

asiatimes.com · by Stephan Haggard · April 7, 2021

The six areas (but only 5 subheadings in the article) for cooperation:

Artificial intelligence

5G technology

Reducing vulnerability of ‘value targets’

Competing against BRI

Space

Excerpts: “The report considers other areas of cooperation that relate directly to military spending, including anti-submarine-warfare and military-space cooperation, and these also make for interesting reading.

The report’s list is by no means exhaustive. It is, however, demonstrative of a key point: that strengthening extended deterrence is not the only or even the most logical route to a more robust balancing of China in Northeast Asia. The success of such a strategy ultimately depends on widening the scope of cooperation in ways that increase underlying capabilities and match those in which China’s rise poses risks.

Not coincidentally, such an approach has the benefit of reminding all three parties of the advantages that come from cooperation, and the costs of allowing outstanding issues – no matter how important – to drive them apart.”

 

-----------

 

There are two things that must be rooted out in all human beings - arrogant opinion and mistrust. Arrogant opinion expects that there is nothing further needed, and mistrust assumes that under the torrent of circumstance there can be no happiness." 

- Epictetus

 

"The great part of our happiness depends on our dispositions., and not on circumstances. We carry the seeds with us in our minds wherever we go." 

- Martha Washington

 

"Endure and persist. The pain will do you good."

-Ovid

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden’s Great-Power Test Begins

2. Opinion | Anti-China is not anti-Asian

3. U.S. could consider boycotting 2022 Beijing Olympics with allies

4. U.S. State Department backs away from the idea of a Beijing Olympics boycott

5. Letter From Former Senior National Security, Military, and Elected Officials Calling On Congress To Create A Bipartisan 1/6 Commission

6. Opinion | What an analysis of 377 Americans arrested or charged in the Capitol insurrection tells us

7. China as a ‘cyber great power’: Beijing’s two voices in telecommunications

8. CSAF Brown On Deck For Joint Chiefs Chair: RUMINT

9. They risked their lives to help us. How Biden can fix the troubled “terp” visa program

10. Official trade activities between North Korea and China unlikely to resume in April

11. The brave few on the front line for freedom deserve America's support

12. Impose Costs on Russia in the Information Environment

13. First flight test for US Air Force’s hypersonic booster didn’t go as planned

14. Pulling Levers, Not Triggers: Beyond Direct and Indirect Approaches to Irregular Warfare

15. A QAnon revelation suggests the truth of Q’s identity was right there all along

16. US Army’s Not ‘Stupid’ for Wanting Long-Range Fires — But More Analysis Needed, Hyten Says

17. Putin, Russia test Biden with 'hybrid warfare' operations in Ukraine, Arctic

18. Computer-simulated invasion will kick off Taiwan war games

19. Bitcoin: ammunition for democracy

20. US and Japan plan 'Belt and Road' alternative for Indo-Pacific

 

1. Biden’s Great-Power Test Begins

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

From the Wall Street Journal editorial board. Will the Philippines be the flashpoint for miscalculation and conflict?

 

2. Opinion | Anti-China is not anti-Asian

The Washington Post · by  Tenzin Dorjee · April 6, 2021

Some would say a "culture of intervention" dominates our foreign policy.

Excerpt: “To be sure, criticism of the Chinese government by policymakers in Washington has escalated in recent years. But the overwhelming volume of the rhetoric targeting Beijing has been prompted not by abstract geopolitical competition but by tangible grievances, including China’s genocide in Xinjiang, intensifying repression in Tibet, dismantling of democracy in Hong Kong and sweeping crackdown on Chinese civil society. Some of Beijing’s harshest critics are Asian Americans. Uyghur refugees, Hong Kong democrats, Chinese dissidents and Tibetan exiles such as myself, whose communities back home reel under Beijing’s boot, are urging Congress to censure China for its crimes. Asking lawmakers of conscience to hold their tongue on Beijing’s genocide to supposedly prevent racial violence here is to set up a false trade-off between Asian American safety and Uyghur lives, both of which should be treated as nonnegotiable.

Conclusion: "Instead of allowing one tragedy to silence another, we should pledge never to be silent bystanders, neither to hate crimes in this country nor to crimes against humanity abroad. If we are serious about ending this epidemic of racial violence, we should invest in a culture of intervention rather than a conspiracy of silence."

 

3. U.S. could consider boycotting 2022 Beijing Olympics with allies

Axios · by Jacob Knutson

This is now apparently being walked back but I wonder if this is either a trial balloon or part of an influence campaign to pressure China.

 

4. U.S. State Department backs away from the idea of a Beijing Olympics boycott

CNBC · by Amanda Macias · April 6, 2021

 

5.  Letter From Former Senior National Security, Military, and Elected Officials Calling On Congress To Create A Bipartisan 1/6 Commission

Medium · by Former Nat'l Security, Military, & Elected Officials · April 6, 2021

 

6. Opinion | What an analysis of 377 Americans arrested or charged in the Capitol insurrection tells us

The Washington Post · by Robert A. Pape · April 6, 2021

Some fascinating data and analysis. We need to be cautious about the conclusions drawn from this.

 

7. China as a ‘cyber great power’: Beijing’s two voices in telecommunications

The Brookings Institution · by Rush Doshi, Emily de La Bruyère, Nathan Picarsic, and John Ferguson · April 5, 2021

The 32 page report can be downloaded here:

A 10 page "handout" is available here.  

 

8. CSAF Brown On Deck For Joint Chiefs Chair: RUMINT

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens

He is a very impressive leader.

 

9. They risked their lives to help us. How Biden can fix the troubled “terp” visa program

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers and Janis Shinwari · April 6, 2021

Our dependence on indigenous interpreters can create a moral hazard.  This is something that really needs to be understood as an inherent part of military operations and diplomacy and it must be understood from day 1 of military operations and we must anticipate what is likely to happen down the road.  I hope we are never again blindsided by the effects we create because of our dependency.

 

10. Official trade activities between North Korea and China unlikely to resume in April

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · April 7, 2021

This is critical to relieving the pressure on the economy and to help lessen the suffering of the Korean people if it is accompanied with relief from the draconian population and resources control measures imposed by the regime in the name of COVID mitigation.

 

11. The brave few on the front line for freedom deserve America's support

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

A powerful, important, and sobering conclusion: “Freedom House notes that proponents of authoritarianism — including those within democratic states — “are both cheering the breakdown of democracy and exacerbating it, pitting themselves against the brave groups and individuals who have set out to reverse the damage.”

“Governments that understand the value of democracy, including the new administration in Washington, have a responsibility to band together to deliver on its benefits, counter its adversaries, and support its defenders,” Freedom House urges. “They must also put their own houses in order to shore up their credibility and fortify their institutions against politicians and other actors who are willing to trample democratic principles in the pursuit of power.”

I find it difficult to disagree. But I also find it difficult to imagine any of the current crop of elected leaders, including the new administration in Washington, doing what is necessary to shift the “international balance” away from tyranny.

 

12. Impose Costs on Russia in the Information Environment

usni.org · by Travis Florio · April 6, 2021

Excerpts: “Another strategy to confront Russian information warfare is public disclosure of the activity and education of U.S. civilians—particularly as it relates to cyber and influence. DoD has used this in the past to expose Russian malign activity, bringing more scrutiny of Russian fake news to reduce the influence of the message. Cyber Command’s hunt-forward operations have also exposed Russian cyber tactics, forcing Russia to react and investigate how its malware was discovered. These countermeasures should continue, with hunt-forward operations conducted robustly overseas in partnership with U.S. allies.

National deterrence policy and strategy are just as important now as they were in the Cold War, only the weapons have changed. The United States can create multiple dilemmas and impose costs on Moscow by investing in human capital, siphoning Russian cyber talent, using protest potential, and continuing hunt-forward operations in coordination with Eastern European allies—while avoiding engaging in wasteful counterpropaganda efforts. Russia wants to operate in a gray area, and it will chip away at United States democracy and hegemony until met with an equal or greater force.

 

13. First flight test for US Air Force’s hypersonic booster didn’t go as planned

Defense News · by Valerie Insinna · April 6, 2021

But we often learn more from failed tests than successful ones.

 

14. Pulling Levers, Not Triggers: Beyond Direct and Indirect Approaches to Irregular Warfare

mwi.usma.edu · by Cole Livieratos · April 7, 2021

Another important essay that hopefully will drive important discussions.

Excerpts: “A better way to improve our approaches to irregular warfare would be to abandon the idea of direct and indirect approaches altogether. Though they still have utility in planning for conventional warfare, the simplistic division has limited our creativity and strategy in irregular warfare. Instead of creating a single division between irregular warfare approaches, the military should consider a more nuanced typology of irregular warfare. The typology should primarily focus on forms of power applied, such as coercion, inducement, or persuasion, and the intended effect, such as to enable, assure, compel, deter, or destroy. A more complicated typology could add additional variables, such as the primary and secondary audiences affected by US actions. More complicated typologies sacrifice the ability to describe an approach in simple and abstract terms, but they would force more creativity and place more focus on how to apply power rather than which means should be applied.

The United States has not learned how to effectively influence populations or affect legitimacy even though it has been waging irregular warfare continuously for the past two decades. The US military underinvests in forces and capabilities built for noncoercive influence, such as information and psychological operations. At the same time, it overapplies coercive force, falsely believing that defeating armed adversaries, either unilaterally or with a partner, is the same as building legitimacy. The US military needs to completely reconceptualize its approaches to irregular warfare by focusing on the type of power employed and its intended effect rather than the means used to apply power. China, Russia, and Iran are destabilizing threats not because they can apply coercive force more successfully than the United States, but because they do not have to in order to advance their agendas. To effectively influence populations and build US legitimacy in competition with these adversaries, the United States military needs to ask which levers should be pulled rather than who should pull the trigger.”

 

15. A QAnon revelation suggests the truth of Q’s identity was right there all along

The Washington Post · by Drew Harwell and Craig Timberg · April 5, 2021

I wonder if QAnon followers will ever learn they have been the victims of the biggest con in the modern internet era.

A QAnon revelation suggests the truth of Q’s identity was right there all along

The extremist movement’s leader had purported to be a top-secret government operative. But a possible slip-up in a new documentary about QAnon suggests that Q was actually Ron Watkins, the longtime administrator of the 8kun message board.

 

16. US Army’s Not ‘Stupid’ for Wanting Long-Range Fires — But More Analysis Needed, Hyten Says

Science & Tech · by Patrick Tucker · April 6, 2021

The Vice trying to clean up the battlefield.

 

17. Putin, Russia test Biden with 'hybrid warfare' operations in Ukraine, Arctic

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Excerpts: “Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday that U.S. military officials are well aware of Russia’s Arctic activities as build-up.

“Without getting into specific intelligence assessments, obviously we’re monitoring it very closely,” Mr. Kirby said. “[We] obviously recognize that the region is key terrain that’s vital to our own homeland defense and as a potential strategic corridor between the Indo-Pacific, Europe and the homeland — which would make it vulnerable to expanded competition.”

Mr. Kirby said the administration is “committed to protecting our U.S. national security interests in the Arctic by upholding a rules-based order in the region, particularly through our network of Arctic allies and partners who share the same deep mutual interests that we do.”

Mr. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, countered Tuesday that Mr. Putin sees the placement of Russian troops in the Arctic as “absolutely necessary.”

“The Arctic zone is a very important region of the Russian Federation, which applies both to our borders and to our special economic zone,” Mr. Peskov said. “The economic potential is growing from year to year, you know that there are general plans for national development in the Arctic zone, and all this is being consistently implemented.”

 

18. Computer-simulated invasion will kick off Taiwan war games

SCMP · April 7, 2021

Will there be an asymmetric and irregular warfare line of effort?  Will there be a resistance component among the population?

Computer-simulated invasion will kick off Taiwan war games

• Exercises will run 24 hours a day in first phase of Taipei’s largest annual military drills which start on April 23
• All possible scenarios of an invasion on the island will be simulated, according to defence ministry

 

19. Bitcoin: ammunition for democracy

Taipei Times · by James Lee · April 5, 2021

 

20.  US and Japan plan 'Belt and Road' alternative for Indo-Pacific

asia.nikkei.com Rieko Miki

 

 

--------------

 

There are two things that must be rooted out in all human beings - arrogant opinion and mistrust. Arrogant opinion expects that there is nothing further needed, and mistrust assumes that under the torrent of circumstance there can be no happiness." 

- Epictetus

 

"The great part of our happiness depends on our dispositions., and not on circumstances. We carry the seeds with us in our minds wherever we go." 

- Martha Washington

 

"Endure and persist. The pain will do you good."

-Ovid

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Future of QUAD in Indo Pacific Security Order

2. The true story of Xi Jinping

3. China Creates its Own Digital Currency, a First for Major Economy

4. Air Force JTACS training Syrians to help call in helo airstrikes raises questions

5. Visa program for Afghan military translators needs to be overhauled, Brown University report says

6. House Lawmakers Want Pentagon to Rethink Global Force Deployments

7. PSYOP, Cyber, and InfoWar: Combating the New Age IED

8. U.S. Space Command strengthens ties with Japan

9. Blinken, Sullivan stand up to China

10. China Looms Large in Biden Infrastructure Plan

11. Surviving the Crackdown in Xinjiang

12.  China Tells Japan to Stay Out of Hong Kong, Xinjiang Issues

13. Lacson, Hontiveros say PH needs help of allies, int'l community vs Chinese incursions

14. FDD | America and its military need a blockchain strategyTrevor Logan

15. China Tests Biden With South China Sea Tactic That Misled Obama

16. Active-duty suicide numbers level off after summer spike, but reserves soar

17. The Pandemic's Tornado Phase

18. ‘Wolf warrior’ Chinese envoys again set up a howl

19. Why the U.S. Military Will Think Twice Before Invading China

20. After A Major Hack, U.S. Looks To Fix A Cyber 'Blind Spot'

21. Peace is On the Line: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda Must Be Fulfilled

22. Fake News, Real Problems

23. One-Third of U.S. Troops Opted Out of the COVID-19 Vaccine. Here's Why That Is Dangerous for National Security

24. Taiwan’s COVID-19 Success Is Worryingly Smug

25. I Thought I Knew How to Succeed as an Asian in U.S. Politics. Boy, Was I Wrong.

26. Navy Seabees Build VP Kamala Harris a Desk Out of Wood from USS Constitution

 

1. The Future of QUAD in Indo Pacific Security Order

usanasfoundation.com · by Codingest · April 3, 2021

Summary below and the video is at this link: 

 

2. The true story of Xi Jinping

The Hill · by Mark C. Storella · April 3, 2021

Excerpts: “Beijing’s one-sided depiction of the U.S. as bent on undermining China threatens to become a self-fulfilling prophecy, as Americans read China’s narrative as unfounded hostility toward the U.S. Moreover, anti-U.S. animosity stoked by Chinese leaders among the Chinese people may prove hard to control.

A new cold war between the U.S. and China is not inevitable. But false PRC narratives about U.S. behavior toward China will only contribute to a further souring of relations.

The U.S. must look critically at the stories it tells itself about its own past. But so too must China compare its narrative of America’s role in the “Century of Humiliation” with the facts.

Just as Mao Zedong admired Chinese writer Lu Xun, Xi Jinping does too. Xun’s famous work “The True Story of Ah Q,” highlights foreign abuse of a hapless China. While it is tempting for Chinese leaders to cast the U.S. as a tormentor of China, that characterization is demonstrably false.

The true story of Xi Jinping should reflect the more complex realities of the U.S.-China relations, for the good of both China and the U.S.

 

3. China Creates its Own Digital Currency, a First for Major Economy

WSJ · by James T. Areddy

A game changer?

I do think FED Chairman Powell provides an interesting response:

“China’s digital strides draw attention to how the U.S. needs to modernize its own financial infrastructure, according to Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor now at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. “If we wait 5 or 10 years, we may well end up with some very bad policy choices,” he said.

More than 60 countries are at some stage of studying or developing a digital currency, according to research group CBDC Tracker. Digital currencies hold some of their biggest potential for the 1.7 billion people globally who the World Bank says lack a bank account. The Bahamas has already issued a digital currency to address financially underserved populations. Some central banks say such currencies would come in handy for families of migrant laborers who make tiny fund transfers that are cumbersome and expensive.

The senior European central banker noted that international person-to-person money transfers can take days and worried that speed and efficiency could eventually make the digital yuan a preferred currency for remittances as countries deepen financial ties with China.

China, with a working model, is offering a ready way for managing digital cash. President Xi last year called for China to seize opportunities to set international rules for digital currencies, much as Beijing has sought to influence and dominate an array of advanced-technology standards such as for 5G telecommunications, driverless cars and facial recognition.

Asked during a recent Senate appearance whether the dollar could be digitized to help the U.S. defend its supremacy, the Fed’s Mr. Powell said researching that question is a “very high-priority project.”

“We don’t need to be the first,” he said. “We need to get it right.”

 

4. Air Force JTACS training Syrians to help call in helo airstrikes raises questions

airforcetimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 5, 2021

Oops. Not a quote the military would like to see in print from a Master Sergeant (though you can always count on an NCO to provide the unvarnished truth):

“As long as our people are deployed somewhere they are going to push to do whatever they can — yet with no strategic oversight or guidance from Washington,” Bryant said. “Or, really bad strategic guidance.”

Excerpts: “Heras thinks the message behind the March photos is two-fold. On the one hand, they’re intended to show that the counter-ISIS mission isn’t over and it’s being taken so seriously that JTACs are offering more training to the SDF.

“The more subtle message, which is to Russians and particularly [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad, is ‘don’t test us,’” Heras added.

U.S. support to Syrian proxies has been controversial, especially when weaponry wound up in the hands of Al-Qaida-linked militants. But the training offered by JTACs isn’t of much use without U.S. aircraft, since the SDF don’t have an air force of their own.

Heras said Congress should still exercise its oversight role to learn more about the efficacy of the program.

“This particular type of support and training that the coalition provides the SDF actually does not have a lot of public debate,” Heras noted.

“If this is going to be part of a new American way of war,” he added, “where we allow non-state actors the benefit of a kinetic partnership that we would usually only reserve for closely vetted state actor partners, what does that mean about how we think about U.S. engagement in a future conflict and, in particular, in the so-called gray zone?”

 

5. Visa program for Afghan military translators needs to be overhauled, Brown University report says

Stars and Stripes

Excerpts: “The report makes recommendations beyond the need for more visa allowances and calls for a series of reforms. He said the administration’s review must examine the process holistically, such as how it impacts people who are denied visas due to challenges of understanding and gathering the necessary paperwork or finding a supervisor to write a letter of recommendation.

The government review must look for ways to better define the terms “threat” and “service” to support those in the most need of protection. Coburn said the threats that individual translators and other contractors face are not equal. Some contractors work in secure office jobs, while others put their lives at risk daily through military service.

About 100,000 Afghans have worked as contractors in support of the U.S. government. However, the actual number of Afghans could be as many as 300,000, Coburn said. It’s unclear because the U.S. government does not have a centralized database to track government contractors.

 

6. House Lawmakers Want Pentagon to Rethink Global Force Deployments

news.usni.org · by Mallory Shelbourne · April 5, 2021

Excerpts: “Put plainly, regular circumvention of the GFMAP is leaving the services scrambling at a time when they need to rebuild the health of the force. At this rate, the desire to solve every immediate problem, regardless of its strategic prioritization, may hollow the force for the next generation,” they continue. “It is imperative that the [combatant commands] accept and share the appropriate amount of risk required to balance their needs against the chiefs’ requirement to recruit, train and modernize the services in the long term.”

Signatories of the letter include Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.), the vice ranking member of HASC and the ranking member of the seapower and projection forces subcommittee, and several other subcommittee ranking members. Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), the ranking member of the readiness subcommittee; Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), the ranking member of the HASC strategic forces subcommittee; and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), the ranking member of the HASC cyber, innovative technologies and information systems subcommittee, also signed the letter. Democratic signatories include Reps. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), Jackie Speier (D-Calif.) and Kaiali’i Kahele (D-Hawaii).

 

7. PSYOP, Cyber, and InfoWar: Combating the New Age IED

mwi.usma.edu · by Chaveso Cook and Liam Collins · April 6, 2021

"influencers."

Excerpt: Finally, to conduct irregular warfare an influencer must understand the art and science of influence regarding human behavior and its structure and development. The art and science of influence has two key aspects. First, it is rooted in a consistent drive to understand the global information environment from the perspective of all sources of influence including human psychological and social functioning, media, technological, and others. Second, it is rooted in focusing one’s experience, training, and education on leveraging this understanding to initiate actions that change people’s attitudes, values, and beliefs, which ultimately underscore and drive behavior. As essential precursors to any influence campaign, within or outside of the cyber domain, nonkinetic activities and change efforts require an understanding of human behavior in the context of the environment and cross-cultural competence. Arguably PSYOPers are their own influence platform. They are a highly effective human weapons delivery system, when appropriately equipped. If influence is the projectile and the PSYOPer is the delivery system, then psychology and human understanding is the gunpowder behind the digital, print, or radio bullet. A concrete understanding of human behavior and an expert competency in foreign cultures clearly differentiates the PSYOPer from the cyber practitioner.

 

8. U.S. Space Command strengthens ties with Japan

donga.com

Reported in the Korean press (Donga Ilbo).

 

9. Blinken, Sullivan stand up to China

Taipei Times ·  by Joseph Bosco

 

10. China Looms Large in Biden Infrastructure Plan

WSJ · by Gerald F. Seib

Excerpts: “There won’t be bipartisan agreement on all the specifics of the Biden R&D proposal, particularly its hefty allotment of research funds for climate-change initiatives, but the idea has broad support. In a sense, this proposal marks the final reversal of a budget process called “sequestration” that kicked in a decade ago to enforce caps on federal spending, a process that compelled some federally funded labs to lay off researchers and, in some cases, close facilities.

—Creating a new office in the Commerce Department, with a $50 billion budget, to work on bringing supply chains back to the U.S. from abroad. The coronavirus pandemic shocked Americans in many ways, including by revealing the extent to which the U.S. depends on medical supplies made in China. Health supplies are just one area in where that is the case.

So, use some federal incentives to prompt companies to bring those supply chains back home—which, again, represents a new bipartisan impulse for 2021.

 

11. Surviving the Crackdown in Xinjiang

The New Yorker · by Raffi Khatchadourian · April 5, 2021

A long read. A tragic story.

 

12. China Tells Japan to Stay Out of Hong Kong, Xinjiang Issues

Bloomberg · by Isabel Reynolds · April 6, 2021

Excerpts: “When asked about other countries’ sanctions at a Tuesday news briefing in Tokyo, Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato said “the goal is to improve the human rights situation. Each country will decide from its own point of view whether that is effective.” He added Japan should constantly evaluate the need for its own sanctions law.

The U.S., Canada, the EU and the U.K. have all imposed penalties on China over human rights abuses against the Uyghur ethnic group in the far west region of Xinjiang, spurring lawmaker groups to call for Japan to follow suit.

 

13. Lacson, Hontiveros say PH needs help of allies, int'l community vs Chinese incursions

news.abs-cbn.com · by ABS-CBN News

Is this where it will begin???

 

14. FDD | America and its military need a blockchain strategyTrevor Logan

fdd.org · by Trevor Logan and Theo Lebryk · April 5, 2021

Conclusion: For a technology that is billed by enthusiasts as the next internet, it is imperative that America act now to ensure that Russia’s prediction that “the blockchain will belong to us” does not come to fruition. To be sure, there is no guarantee blockchain will achieve this level of influence. However, if there is chance that blockchain is even a fraction as revolutionary as the internet, America cannot afford a wait-and-see approach.

 

15. China Tests Biden With South China Sea Tactic That Misled Obama

Bloomberg · by Andreo Calonzo · April 5, 2021

Excerpts: “One big problem is how to calibrate the response. China’s use of commercial fishing boats amounts to a “gray zone” tactic that allows Beijing to deny anything is amiss. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships near the reef risks appearing like an overreaction that would make the U.S. look like the aggressor.

On the other hand, doing nothing could look weak. Over the past few years the U.S. has stepped up challenges to Chinese sovereignty in the waters, increasing the frequency of so-called freedom of navigation operations around disputed territory. The Biden administration also reaffirmed that the U.S.-Philippine defense treaty covers any attacks in the South China Sea, a clarification made under President Donald Trump that came after decades of official ambiguity.

 

16. Active-duty suicide numbers level off after summer spike, but reserves soar

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 5, 2021

One is too many and "leveling off" is not a good metric. But note the reserves.

 

17.  The Pandemic's Tornado Phase

defenseone.com · by Alexis C. Madrigal · April 5, 2021

 

18. ‘Wolf warrior’ Chinese envoys again set up a howl

asiatimes.com · by Beiyi Seow · April 6, 2021

Perhaps scorpion would be a better descriptor. I can't help it, it is my nature.

Excerpt: Here are five things to know as the wolf warriors once more bare their teeth:

When did it start?

Why did the wolves return?

Attack mode

What’s next?

 

19. Why the U.S. Military Will Think Twice Before Invading China

The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · April 6, 2021

Before we think about invading what would be the political and military objectives of such an "invasion?"  

 

20. After A Major Hack, U.S. Looks To Fix A Cyber 'Blind Spot'

NPR · by Greg Myre · April 6, 2021

Excerpts: “The White House says President Biden will respond soon to the SolarWinds hack, but has not provided details.

The Biden administration also says it's working on ways for the government and the tech industry to better share critical information. But the administration stresses that it's not currently seeking increased legal authority for domestic digital surveillance.

 

21. Peace is On the Line: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda Must Be Fulfilled

msmagazine.com · by Corey Greer · April 5, 2021

Excerpts: “In the coming years that it will take to recover from the coronavirus pandemic at home, we must keep the world’s women at the fore because our security at home is intricately linked to the equality and security of women around the world.

For example, the disempowerment of women at the household level is strongly associated with terrorism. As Dr. Valerie Hudson explained to the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, “Train men to terrorize women, and you train them in terrorism.”

We must keep the world’s women at the fore; our security at home is intricately linked to the equality and security of women around the world.

 

22. Fake News, Real Problems

crispin.substack.com · by Crispin Burke

 

23. One-Third of U.S. Troops Opted Out of the COVID-19 Vaccine. Here's Why That Is Dangerous for National Security

TIME · by Seth Moulton and Tammy S. Schultz

My wife and I received our first vaccinations yesterday. I hope all military personnel who are avoiding it will reconsider.

Excerpt: The first step is for our military leaders to simply convince their troops to get the vaccine. America will be safer and stronger once they do.

 

24. Taiwan’s COVID-19 Success Is Worryingly Smug

Foreign Policy · by Hilton Yip · April 5, 2021

Beating the pandemic is not the same as beating China!

 

25. I Thought I Knew How to Succeed as an Asian in U.S. Politics. Boy, Was I Wrong.

Politico · by Jeffrey Le

Excerpts: “It’s not clear which party will benefit more from a new AAPI awakening. Because AAPI voters are so diverse, given their breadth of income, age, history and connection to the American experience across 50 ethnicities and over 100 languages, painting the AAPI tent with one brush isn’t just intellectually lazy, it’s dangerous for political parties. Some Chinese Americans and Japanese Americans have family lineages in the United States going back farther than most European-Americans, while newer AAPI communities arrived to the United States as refugees, and have fewer economic opportunities and shorter life expectancies than other communities of color. We’re diverse, not guaranteed to caucus with any one party.

We are, however, on the lookout for parties who will target, listen and cater to us. Just 30 percent of Asian American voters surveyed nationally last September said they had had at least some contact from the Democratic Party in the past year. Only 24 percent said they had had contact from the Republican Party. If parties can reach AAPIs with in-language tools, and speak to their problems, AAPI voters will respond. AAPIs, on the other hand, need to believe that they can dictate the terms.

If the hundreds of text messages I’ve gotten in recent weeks tell me anything, it’s that many of my Asian American friends are ready for a change. Even the most politically disengaged AAPIs are suddenly willing to fight. White peers and other communities of color are also starting to support AAPIs in their struggle to be seen as equal Americans.

For this energy to last, though, AAPIs need to reimagine who they are, what they want and what they’re capable of—to bet on themselves. It was only after I did so that I began to feel like I belonged.

 

26. Navy Seabees Build VP Kamala Harris a Desk Out of Wood from USS Constitution

Military.com · by Gina Harkins · April 5, 2021

Photo and video at the link: 

Very cool and well done Seabees.

Note this project began during the previous administration and includes a desk for SECNAV as well.

 

---------------

 

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." 

- Margaret Mead

 

“The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists.”
- Admiral Yi Sun-shin

 

War is the province of uncertainty; three-fourths of the things on which action in war is based lie hidden in the fog of uncertainty.

- Carl von Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The Japan-US Summit and Cooperation With South Korea

2. Detente May Be an Option With North Korea

3. North Korean workers in Russia defect to South Korea

4. U.S. takes alliance commitment with S. Korea very seriously: Pentagon spokesman

5. North Korea first country to pull out of Olympics over COVID concerns

6. N. Korea decides not to participate in Tokyo Olympics over coronavirus concerns

7. Japan extends its own North Korean sanctions another 2 years

8. Mutual Suspicion, Mutual Threats: Getting Japan and South Korea to Work Together

9. The Politics of South Korea’s ‘China Threat’

10. North Korea's wealthy entrepreneurial class facing economic difficulties amid COVID-19 pandemic

11. North Korea slams UN report on child malnutrition as 'sheer lie'

12. Papal visit to North Korea can bring peace, say Catholic leaders

13. The North Korean Refugee Who Crossed the Border for Fashion

14. Young Defectors Take to YouTube

 

1. The Japan-US Summit and Cooperation With South Korea

thediplomat.com · by Scott W. Harold · April 6, 2021

Conclusion:  "The Biden administration’s goal of renewed Japan-South Korea-U.S. trilateralism is laudable and promising, but at the same time the obstacles remaining are substantial. In a February 2021 survey, 82.4 percent of Japanese respondents stated that the Japan-South Korea relationship was “not good” or “not very good,” and fully 40.4 percent said it was also not that important. South Korean views of Japan are also quite negative. Additionally, the politics are complicated by the upcoming April 7 by-elections in South Korea and lower house elections to the Diet in Japan, which have to be held on or before October 22, making some engagements more risky and difficult. Yet the Biden administration has shown that it is disciplined and unafraid of tackling difficult issues, and cooperation on the COVID-19 pandemic and the Tokyo Olympic Games may provide opportunities to press further. The United States has shown that when it gives its allies a clear demand signal for trilateral cooperation, it can accomplish important goals. Biden and his team might well choose to do so again when they host the Japanese prime minister on April 16."

 

2. Detente May Be an Option With North Korea

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead · April 6, 2021

So much to unpack here.  With all due respect I have to call out the imminent scholar Walter Russell Mead in the conclusion. You just cannot say this:

“Difficult and threatening as North Korea can be, it is not the gravest threat either to human rights or to American strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. If the U.S. must, it can and should act resolutely with allies against destabilizing North Korean actions in Northeast Asia. But quietly exploring other options is an avenue the Biden administration should not neglect.”

I am thinking of the 25 million victims of crimes against humanity on a scale that has not been documented since WWII.  I urge you to take back that statement.

Detente with north Korea means Kim's political warfare strategy has succeeded.  He will continue his long con and double down on blackmail diplomacy which of course means more of the same (for the last seven decades).  

Yes, it is true that the Kim family regime has been said to be more Stalinist than Stalin but to use the Stalin analogy of turning Soviet policy on a dime and dropping the antifascist line just does not recognize the nature of the regime and the box that created for itself - it cannot radically change or reform or it undermines the very legitimacy of the regime and its ideological basis.

But the real issue is there can be no detente until we can for sure answer these questions in the affirmative:

“Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?”

With detente we set the conditions that allow Kim to pursue the strategies he has no intention of giving up.  This is why it is imperative we understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

I say again, the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

The answers to the above questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). This is "one option the Biden administration should be quietly exploring and should not neglect."

 

3. North Korean workers in Russia defect to South Korea

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 6, 2021

We should not consider these survivors as defectors.  They are escapees.

But there is a lot in this short article - note the escape route through Mongolia.  Note the Russians eventually allowed them to leave (unlike the Chinese who repatriated them to north Korea). Of course they should not have been in Russia in the first place if Russia had been complying with the UN sanctions on overseas slave labor.

It is good news if they did receive help from the UN High Commissioner for refugees.  I hope the High Commissioner will now start putting pressure on China to allow these Koreas from the north to be treated as refugees and not be forcibly repatriated to north Korea.

 

4. U.S. takes alliance commitment with S. Korea very seriously: Pentagon spokesman

Axios · by Rebecca Falconer

Yes, but…

If training becomes untenable for US forces in South Korea we could very well need to remove combat forces and station only enablers (communications, logistics, and intelligence to support the arrival of combat forces).  I'm hearing rumors that South Korea is no longer an optimal choice for the operational force and those who are required to maintain various crew qualifications from fighter pilots helicopter pilots to tank crews because it is too difficult to maintain the full range of skill qualifications to due restrictions on training areas and in particular live fire.  And then there is the issue of the THAAD "base' (or lack of developed one) - the most advanced missile defense system that is providing protection not simply for US forces or ROK military forces but for the South Korean population.  The ROK government has been unable to deal with the professional protestors and community organizers who have duped the local population around the base into preventing proper development and basic logistics support to the troops stationed there.  These issues may very well impact the force posture review because if the ROK government cannot provide adequate training areas to allow US forces to sustain their skill qualifications there will need to be some significant adjustments in force posture. "To send an untrained army to war is to throw it away." Confucius. 

 

5. North Korea first country to pull out of Olympics over COVID concerns

Axios · by Rebecca Falconer

Well, I guess this allows north Korea to say "We are number one!"  It is also leading the fight against COVID with its claim of zero cases.

 

6.  N. Korea decides not to participate in Tokyo Olympics over coronavirus concerns

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · April 6, 2021

I am somewhat amazed how much press this is getting.  It is not like north Korea pulling out is going to radically affect the games (except I guess for weightlifting which I think is the only sport in which they are somewhat competitive based on some of the reports I have seen).

And of course this is another blow to the Unification Ministry and the Moon administration.

 

7. Japan extends its own North Korean sanctions another 2 years

outlookindia.com · by Mari Yamaguchi · April 6, 2021

Maybe this is the real reason for north Korea pulling out of the Tokyo Olympics. 

 

8. Mutual Suspicion, Mutual Threats: Getting Japan and South Korea to Work Together

warontherocks.com · by Andrew Park and Elliot Silverberg · April 6, 2021

Excerpts: “The hurdles to closer Japanese-South Korean relations remain formidable and largely outside Washington’s control. Without innovation, U.S. policymakers will remain at an impasse. Instead of urging South Korea to join hands with Japan in a broader confrontational approach toward China, Washington should encourage Seoul to cooperate with Tokyo on specific areas of insecurity.

...

Others have already argued that the Biden presidency’s promise of rejuvenated coalition-building creates a window of opportunity to bolster U.S.-Japanese-South Korean trilateral cooperation. To be sure, while the new administration attempts to turn back the clock on Trump’s more impolitic approach to his Japanese and Korean counterparts, there is no easy solution for restoring regional allied security cooperation. Even attending to such mutually significant issues as maritime sovereignty, supply chain resilience, and cyber security won’t fully inoculate the trilateral relationship against further setbacks and inaction due to Tokyo’s and Seoul’s bilateral shortcomings. But the United States cannot wait for the headwinds of Japanese-South Korean tensions to subside. The Biden administration needs to show immediate and innovative leadership and take advantage of the strong undercurrent of bipartisanship among Democrats and Republicans regarding a proactive U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. Biden’s leadership during a moment of considerable strategic peril for Japan and South Korea heralds an opportunity to expand cooperation in new security domains.

 

9. The Politics of South Korea’s ‘China Threat’

thediplomat.com · by Dongwoo Kim · April 5, 2021

Many of the Koreans I speak with are well aware of the Chinese threat and have different views than the Moon administration.

A very important conclusion: "There are several parallels to draw between the South Korean case and the different responses to the “China threat” around the world. A key shared element in these is how the frustration with elite politics and existing economic and social problems are getting channeled through these debates on China. More specifically, people hear from the elites that economic engagement with China is important and beneficial, but house prices continue to go up and inequality continues to rise. Ultimately, these responses to the “China threat” underscore the struggle of liberal democracies to identify ways of dealing with an assertive and powerful China that is increasingly more present in their lives."

 

10. North Korea's wealthy entrepreneurial class facing economic difficulties amid COVID-19 pandemic

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · April 6, 2021

The question is whether the "wealthy" entrepreneurial class has developed sufficient wealth to be able to shift from economic priorities to seeking political change?  The answer to that question may be why Kim Jong-un is using COVID as an excuse to implement draconian population and resources and control measures in order to prevent any kind of political resistance to the regime.  He certainly fears such a development.

 

11. North Korea slams UN report on child malnutrition as 'sheer lie'

The Korea Times · April 6, 2021

Admit nothing. Deny everything. Make counter-accusations.

These children are suffering because of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions to prioritize nuclear and missile programs over the welfare of the 25 million Korean people in the north.

 

12. Papal visit to North Korea can bring peace, say Catholic leaders

international.la-croix.com · April 5, 2021

Only if the Pope can perform a miracle.

 

13. The North Korean Refugee Who Crossed the Border for Fashion

Vice · by Junhyup Kwon

Excerpt: “Up until last year, I never said that I was from North Korea. I hid it like a guilty person. When picking out my outfits, I was always conscious about how others would see me, worrying that I might look like a North Korean woman. But then I found out that a lot of people, including international and South Korean organizations, are interested in the stories of North Koreans and North Korean refugees. That’s when I realized I’ve been hiding and only focusing on myself. Now, I want to proudly say that I’m from North Korea and show that I’m living a fruitful life. I want to be an inspiration for North Korean refugees. Someday, I hope to help them as a beauty consultant too.”

 

14.  Young Defectors Take to YouTube

english.chosun.com · April 4, 2021

Escapees.

I recommend "Pyonghattan" the YouTube channel of Lee Hyun-seung and his sister Seo-hyun. I know them and I follow their channel.

 

-------------

 

"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." 

- Margaret Mead

 

“The soldier who fights to death never dies, but the soldier who fights for existence never truly exists.”
- Admiral Yi Sun-shin

 

War is the province of uncertainty; three-fourths of the things on which action in war is based lie hidden in the fog of uncertainty.

- Carl von Clausewitz

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. China Knows S.Korea Is Weakest Link in U.S.' Asia Alliances

2. Korea trapped in shifting sands of US-China rivalry

3. China urges S. Korea to make efforts to alleviate N. Korea sanctions

4. Impatient to resolve N. Korea issues, Seoul makes things go awry

5. Contentious US missile shield back in limelight

6. Defense ministry rejects Japan's renewed claims over Dokdo islets

7. S. Korea, U.S. agree 'in principle' on Moon-Biden summit in Washington

8. S. Korea to conduct survey on Korean War-separated families

9. Families of around 30 former military officers expelled from Pyongyang for "inappropriate speech and behavior"

10. North Korea deploys construction troops to border to build barriers and high-voltage wires

11. N. Korea urges efforts to localize production to develop self-reliant chemical industry

12. N.K. 'party cell' leaders visit mausoleum of late leaders ahead of conference

13. China and South Korea plan security talks as efforts to repair relations after US missile row continue

14. Exclusive: South Korea steel giant POSCO weighs how to exit Myanmar military-backed venture - sources

15. Looking beyond the North in South Korean foreign policy Looking beyond the North in South Korean foreign policy

 

1. China Knows S.Korea Is Weakest Link in U.S.' Asia Alliances

english.chosun.com

Although this is a very critical OpEd about South Korea from the Chosun Ilbo, the importance of this piece is that it is exposing China's strategy. Of course the ROK has responsibility for sustaining the ROK/US alliance, but it is important that we understand what China is doing and what are its intentions, which includes attacking the alliance.

In defense of the Ambassador to the US, his comments in the conclusion below were misinterpreted. He was actually trying to describe why the ROK/US alliance is strong and important: the ROK makes the deliberate choice to be allied with the US and it is not forced into an alliance relationship. It is part of the alliance because of shared interest, shared, values shared, strategy, and shared threats.

Conclusion: Last year, the Korean ambassador to the U.S. even said South Korea "can choose sides" between Washington and Beijing. But it can do no such thing, and Moon's desperate pursuit of U.S.-North Korea dialogue and a visit to Seoul by the Chinese president were completely ignored. In the meantime, North Korea continues to bolster its nuclear arsenal. The government has only itself to blame.

 

2. Korea trapped in shifting sands of US-China rivalry

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · April 2, 2021

As they say: "it's complicated." We (both the ROK and the US) need to understand the Chinese strategy and how it intends to harm the ROK/US alliance.

 

3. China urges S. Korea to make efforts to alleviate N. Korea sanctions

donga.com · April 5, 2021

Another indicator of how China intends to create friction for the ROK/US alliance. Of course this line of effort works because the Moon administration is predisposed to demand sanctions relief for the north in support of the "peace agenda."

 

4. Impatient to resolve N. Korea issues, Seoul makes things go awry

donga.com · April 5, 2021

Another critical Oped about the Moon administration dealing with China, north Korea, Japan, and the US.

I am heartened to read the DOnga Ilbo editorial board highlighted the key phrase from the ROK/Japan. US joint statement from the national security advisors meeting last Friday:

"...putting emphasis on the complete implementation of the United Nations Security Council’s resolutions."

This is what needs to be the foundation of the the new policy and the key talking point that should be emphasized by all three nations. 

 

5. Contentious US missile shield back in limelight

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · April 5, 2021

A somewhat misleading headline. My first thought was President Raegan and "star wars missile defense." But it is "only" about THAAD in Korea.

This issue has been relatively low visibility and kept behind the scenes for the most part. But it cannot continue and the ROK government must solve this. But it fears the professional organizers/protesters who have effectively mobilized the local populace to oppose construction of the base. Few are aware of the difficult conditions of our soldiers at the temporary "base."

 

6. Defense ministry rejects Japan's renewed claims over Dokdo islets

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 5, 2021

Another friction point in the trilateral relationship among Korea, Japan, and the US. And this is a self inflicted wound by both the ROK and Japan. 

 

7. S. Korea, U.S. agree 'in principle' on Moon-Biden summit in Washington

en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · April 5, 2021

Some competition with Japan on timing.

 

8. S. Korea to conduct survey on Korean War-separated families

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 5, 2021

You would think after seven decades of separation the ROK government would have conducted numerous surveys and should surely have data on how many separated families there are.

 

9. Families of around 30 former military officers expelled from Pyongyang for "inappropriate speech and behavior"

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · April 5, 2021

Snarky comment: north Korean "cancel culture" with Juche characteristics.

But we have to assess if this kind of "resistance '' is a significant indicator. 

 

10. North Korea deploys construction troops to border to build barriers and high-voltage wires

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah  · April 5, 2021

Another indicator of the draconian population and resources control measures being implemented to oppress the Korean people in the north in the name of COVID defense.

Another snarky comment: I wonder if these wall builders are available for contracting for wall construction on other borders?

 

11. N. Korea urges efforts to localize production to develop self-reliant chemical industry

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 5, 2021

Dual use.

 

12. N.K. 'party cell' leaders visit mausoleum of late leaders ahead of conference

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 5, 2021

It remains all about the revolution.

Excerpts: "The participants in the 6th Conference of Cell Secretaries of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where President Kim Il-sung and Chairman Kim Jong-il lie in state," the Korean Central News Agency said.

"The participants hardened strong will to bring about a revolutionary turn in the Party cell work as required by the new period of upsurge and turn in socialist construction," it added.

 

13. China and South Korea plan security talks as efforts to repair relations after US missile row continue

SCMP · by Kinling Lo · April 5, 2021

China supports north Korea's divide and conquer line of effort regarding the ROK/US alliance.

China and South Korea plan security talks as efforts to  repair relations after US missile row continue:

• Beijing says it hopes the two sides can cooperate on North Korea, 
• trade and technology following a meeting between the two countries’ 
• foreign ministers on Saturday
• Relations are slowly getting back on track after the 2016 dispute that 
• saw South Korean businesses hit by an economic backlash from its 
• most important trading partner

 

14. Exclusive: South Korea steel giant POSCO weighs how to exit Myanmar military-backed venture - sources

Reuters · by Cynthia Kim · April 5, 2021

 

15. Looking beyond the North in South Korean foreign policy Looking beyond the North in South Korean foreign policy

eastasiaforum.org · by Chung Min Lee · April 5, 2021

Important analysis and perspective from our good friend Professor Chung Min Lee.

Conclusion: “A lasting road to peace and prosperity on the peninsula can only be achieved if South Korea amplifies its international leverage by enhancing its contributions to the global commons. This cannot happen if it continues to focus myopically on a peninsular peace regime without taking into account the gross human rights abuses of the North Korean government or crafting a more realistic roadmap towards verifiable denuclearisation. South Korea will also miss out on a key opportunity to strengthen its alliance with the United States at a time when Washington needs crucial support from allies.

As important as the North Korea issue is, Seoul would gain significant dividends by focusing on global areas of cooperation with the United States and mending seriously strained relations with Japan. Globalising South Korean foreign policy should receive bipartisan support. In an era of unprecedented decoupling, but also growing entanglement, it makes sense for South Korea to accentuate its increasingly prominent role as an outward-looking techno-democracy. To do otherwise would be to go back in time and forfeit a rare opportunity to augment South Korea’s strategic regional and global leverage.

 

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Unconventional Warfare:

 

Old: "UW is a broad spectrum of military and paramilitary operations, normally of long duration, predominantly conducted by indigenous or surrogate forces who are organized, trained, equipped, supported, and directed in varying degrees by an external source. UW includes guerilla warfare (GW) and other direct offensive low-visibility, covert, or clandestine operations, as well as the indirect activities of subversion, sabotage, intelligence collection, and evasion and escape (E&E).  

JP1-02 DoD Dictionary of Military Terms and FM 31-20 Special Forces Operations, 1990

 

New (and current): UW is defined as "activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt or overthrow an occupying power or government by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary or guerrilla force in a denied area" (JP 1-02 and JP 3-05)

 

2017 NDAA: "Irregular Warfare is conducted in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”