News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Do Russia or China Have 'Limited' or 'Unlimited' Political Goals?

2. Warning: Scrutinize Any Underlying Assumptions for China in the New National Security Strategy

3. U.S. and Its Allies Must Focus on Access Denial Against China’s Military

4. Changes to Special Ops Firing Ranges Appear to Reduce Lead Levels in Soldiers, Study Shows

5. Special Operations News Update - April 5, 2021 | SOF News

6. Nations Begin to Shape Post-Covid-19 Economy Amid Diverging Fortunes

7.  The Death of a Grand Strategist

8.  Why slashing the Pentagon budget would be a disaster

9. PH-China dispute over Julian Felipe Reef does not yet warrant US intervention: analyst

10. FDD | How to Protect America’s Heartland from Global Corruption

11. Modi is right about indigenous defence doctrine. Army staff colleges can’t keep studying US

12. The Quad’s continuing maturation

13. China’s Claims of Exoneration on Covid Ring Hollow

14. Options to Build U.S. Army Headquarters Elements for Large Scale Combat Operations

15. New Marine Corps manual offers template for reimagined force

16. Spratly Islands, Diaoyu, Bay of Bengal: is a storm brewing in Asia-Pacific waters?

17. The International Far-Right Terrorist Threat Requires a Multilateral Response

18. China launches musical in bid to counter Uyghur abuse allegations

 

1. Do Russia or China Have 'Limited' or 'Unlimited' Political Goals?

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · April 4, 2021

A very interesting thought experiment from Professor Holmes. As he concludes: "the answer matters."

 

2. Warning: Scrutinize Any Underlying Assumptions for China in the New National Security Strategy

All students of strategy know sound assumptions are key and they must be continuously assessed and re-evaluated and when assumptions change (determined either to be fact or in error) the balance among ends, ways, and means may have to be adjusted.

Conclusion: “Strategic assumptions overly focused on demographics, economics, and societal expectations, but missing other looming issues like a Chinese leadership transition or American domestic politics are troubling. Further examination of each of these assumptions is needed. No strategy is without risk, but to frame the next few years or longer on these assumptions is hazardous. That is not to say that these strategies or their logic collectively should be shelved. Quite the opposite, these strategies provide a variety of thoughtful analyses and commentaries on a pressing and much-needed debate over the future of American national security strategy vis-à-vis China. Policymakers and strategists should seek a positive, reciprocal, and mutually beneficial relationship with China to the extent that one is achievable.

As some strategies elucidate, it is worthwhile to leverage a slew of whole-of-government responses in order to impose costs or confront unacceptable Chinese behavior. And pursuing ideas like a novel “defensive diplomacy” with like-minded nations may very well alleviate friction points leading to confrontation or even conflict.[40] But the U.S. must get its strategic suppositions with China right in any new national security strategy given the trail of U.S. strategic missteps premised on faulty assumptions, in southwest Asia and elsewhere. If it does not, the U.S. will be disappointed once again at some future point when the stakes may be much higher.

 

3. U.S. and Its Allies Must Focus on Access Denial Against China’s Military

The National Interest · by John Rossomando · April 4, 2021

Interesting analysis and recommendations.

Excerpts: “Japan and the United States should counter Chinese drills near Taiwan with ones of their own to send the message that any attempt to seize Taiwan by force would go badly for China.

The United States, Japan, Australia, and possibly the British Royal Navy, Indonesia, and Malaysia should consider having a major naval exercise in Japanese waters near Taiwan and sink a target ship to show Beijing that its fleet would be putting itself in peril. Considering that Beijing has invested considerable capital in its new aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships, perhaps the U.S. Navy should consider towing the USS Bonhomme Richard to the area and sinking it as a target.

The U.S. Navy also needs to have regular submarine patrols through the deep waters of the Taiwan Strait and in the waters surrounding Taiwan, not unlike during the Cold War when U.S. attack submarines operated off Russia’s northern coast.

The threat of a vicious response to aggression on the part of Beijing must be real, imminent, and immediate. Otherwise, Beijing will take Taiwan and U.S. military dominance in the region will permanently end.”

 

4. Changes to Special Ops Firing Ranges Appear to Reduce Lead Levels in Soldiers, Study Shows

military.com · by Patricia Kime · April 2, 2021

 

5. Special Operations News Update - April 5, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 5, 2021

 

6. Nations Begin to Shape Post-Covid-19 Economy Amid Diverging Fortunes

WSJ · by Yuka Hayashi

Excerpts: “One big question, which is common to all economies, is how quick should the withdrawal of the stimulus be, and what happens when they are withdrawn and whether you’ll see an increase in bankruptcies,” said Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, in an interview. She added that so far, the global economy has shown enormous resilience.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has said he doesn’t anticipate changing the central bank’s easy monetary policy soon. Even so, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 1.72% late last week, up from 0.91% at the end of last year, on signs of an accelerating economic rebound. It remains low by historical standards.

Rising U.S. yields have drawn capital away from emerging markets, putting downward pressure on their currencies while fueling both inflation and future inflation fears. Last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ousted the country’s central-bank governor, who had raised interest rates repeatedly in an effort to tame inflation."

 

7. The Death of a Grand Strategist

Politico · by Molly Worthen · April 4, 2021

Professor Worthen wrote her biography of Charles Hill as an undergraduate after participating in Yale's Grand Strategy program. I highly recommend it.

And I agree with her and the subtitle. There is so much we can learn from him and his statesmanship.

 

8. Why slashing the Pentagon budget would be a disaster

Defense News · by Dov S. Zakheim and Elaine McCusker · April 5, 2021

Excerpts: “What clearly stands out in the Department of Defense’s annual report to Congress — “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China” — is that China already leads the U.S. in shipbuilding, land-based conventional ballistic and cruise missiles, and integrated air defense systems.

Public discourse and debate on federal spending is crucial when it comes to the nation’s decisions on where to apply taxpayer funding, particularly to ensure security and competitiveness. Defense spending, which is 16 percent of the entire federal budget and includes billions of dollars in nondefense activities, should not be used arbitrarily as an offset for other priorities. We should carefully consider what we are asking our military to do and what levels of risk we are placing on the force as it sustains recovered readiness lost during years of budget declines, while maintaining modernization momentum.

Our elected officials should do better than mislead us with political rhetoric when discussing that most fundamental of federal responsibilities: that of providing for the common defense of its citizens.

 

9. PH-China dispute over Julian Felipe Reef does not yet warrant US intervention: analyst

news.abs-cbn.com · by Gillan Ropero

But is the Philippines laying the groundwork for eventually calling on the US to come to its aid under the Mutual Defense Treaty?

 

10. FDD | How to Protect America’s Heartland from Global Corruption

fdd.org · by Elaine K. Dezenski · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Through the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, we have shown that we can monitor improper foreign control of key American industries and technologies. It is time to recognize that our critical assets include not only advanced technology and cutting-edge military hardware, but America’s critical industrial core, from our steel plants, to our skyscrapers and the workers employed there.

If we don’t revitalize America’s expansive industrial base, we risk our economy, our national security, our political stability, and our values. Recent experience shows that when workers are left behind, we feed electoral populism and foment political extremism.

America’s heartland deserves better than an investment of dirty money. Through a coordinated effort with our allies, we can strengthen the Midwest, save jobs, improve transparency, and invest in a sustainable future.

 

11. Modi is right about indigenous defence doctrine. Army staff colleges can’t keep studying US

theprint.in · April 5, 2021

An interesting critique. Per the subtitle does any military ever receive sufficient political guidance?

My opinion when dealing with friends, partners, and allies: Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it. Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if it is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities. 

But sometimes our friends, partners, or allies want our doctrine and want to adopt US ways of warfare (which are always too expensive for their military forces.)

Author's conclusion: “To learn from others is laudable, but it prevents clarity on our innate strengths and capabilities. For instance, re-evaluate how the Himalayas remained India’s true frontier for decades. Using it as an advantage could translate into a series of airfields to quickly bring up men and material, while removing roads altogether. Let the enemy battle it out in the forests. Our advantage is in bringing forces to bear against a China with incredibly long logistics lines. It may be oversimplification; but the point is think with along with your history books. Think also of limitations in terms of what our defence budget will ever permit. Large plans need large purses. Stop the roads, and spend more on in-depth surveillance.

Finally, the Prime Minister’s Office can hardly blame the forces for soldiering on however they could. After all, they’ve been working without any form of political guidance for years. It’s the PMO that needs to set the ball rolling by deciding on a doctrinal paper that examines all of the questions identified above, and more. Such a large mapping requires civilians, military and academics to sit together and decide in the simplest language what India was, and what it is now, what worked for us, and what didn’t. No, it’s not that convenient ‘Vision’ document with great English. This is hard reality. But as PM Modi says, it also needs you to look at the whole issue through a Made-in-India lens. He’s right. Now just get on with it.

 

12. The Quad’s continuing maturation

asiatimes.com · by Michael Tkacik · April 5, 2021

The next thing that needs to be done on the path of maturation is rebranding and coming up with a new name, especially if the organization is going to receive new members.

 

13. China’s Claims of Exoneration on Covid Ring Hollow

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · April 2, 2021

 

14. Options to Build U.S. Army Headquarters Elements for Large Scale Combat Operations

divergentoptions.org · by Justin Magula · April 5, 2021

 

15. New Marine Corps manual offers template for reimagined force

washingtontimes.com · by Mike Glenn

 

16. Spratly Islands, Diaoyu, Bay of Bengal: is a storm brewing in Asia-Pacific waters?

SCMP · by Maria Siow· April 4, 2021

A tempest in a teapot.

Spratly Islands, Diaoyu, Bay of Bengal: 

is a storm brewing in Asia-Pacific waters?

• The US-China rivalry has fuelled maritime maneuverings by Asian and 
• European countries in regional waterways such as the South China Sea
• China’s new coastguard law has also been blamed, but an analyst says 
• Beijing has historically never used lethal force in its operations at sea

 

17. The International Far-Right Terrorist Threat Requires a Multilateral Response

lawfareblog.com · by Jason M. Blazakis and Naureen Chowdhury Fink · April 4, 2021

Conclusion: “Countering far-right extremist violence will require a multilateral approach that mirrors the international nature of the threat. Attacks by far-right ideologues are increasing in frequency and prominence. However, there is no need to start from a blank slate, given the counterterrorism tools that have been developed over the past two decades, though they will require some fine-tuning. Policymakers should not wait for another mass casualty event to take action. It’s time to take the lessons learned from disrupting the financing of jihadist terrorism and terrorism prevention and apply them to the violent far-right extremist threat.”

18. China launches musical in bid to counter Uyghur abuse allegations

The Guardian · April 3, 2021

A Chinese soft power attempt.

 

--------------

 

Unconventional Warfare:

 

Old: "UW is a broad spectrum of military and paramilitary operations, normally of long duration, predominantly conducted by indigenous or surrogate forces who are organized, trained, equipped, supported, and directed in varying degrees by an external source. UW includes guerilla warfare (GW) and other direct offensive low-visibility, covert, or clandestine operations, as well as the indirect activities of subversion, sabotage, intelligence collection, and evasion and escape (E&E).  

JP1-02 DoD Dictionary of Military Terms and FM 31-20 Special Forces Operations, 1990

 

New (and current): UW is defined as "activities conducted to enable a resistance movement or insurgency to coerce, disrupt or overthrow an occupying power or government by operating through or with an underground, auxiliary or guerrilla force in a denied area" (JP 1-02 and JP 3-05)

 

2017 NDAA: "Irregular Warfare is conducted in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

 

 

 

 

Access SOF News Update HERE.

Special Operations News Update – April 5, 2021

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. SOCOM diversity chief reassigned, AFSOC’s A-29s, Montagnards of Vietnam, ASD SO/LIC, Russia in the Arctic, border crisis, Sahel, Mozambique, podcasts, books, and videos.

A discussion on John Billings' recently published book "Special Duties Pilot" about specialized B-24 missions during World War II. The virtual event is on 28 April.

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/oh-so-social-conversation-capt-john-billings-and-gen-norton-schwartz-registration-147782021003?ref=eios

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. A Tribute to Charles Hill

2. Gray Is the New Black: A Framework to Counter Gray Zone Conflicts

3. Is China willing and able to invade Taiwan?

4. In The Shadow Of A Missile: Assessing The Armenian Military’s SS-26 Iskander Debacle

5. The word 'radicalization' has lost all meaning. That's very dangerous

6. DoD to Spend a Quarter-Billion Dollars Reorganizing Its Data for AI

7. Rise of female militants poses challenge for war on terror

8. U.S. Looks to Build On Secret Portions of Taliban Deal to Reduce Violence

9. When Online Conspiracies Turn Deadly: A Custody Battle and a Killing

10. Human Rights Hypocrisy: Why Blinken Misses the Mark

11. Army advisers make first mission to the Maldives, a strategic area of the Indian Ocean

12. Army captain sets women's world record for mile run in a bomb disposal suit

13. Philippines Accuses China Of Plans To Occupy More South China Sea 'Features'

14. The Military Faces of COVID-19: 5 Stories of Lives the Community Lost to the Virus

15. Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company Norinco placed under investigation

16. Marwa Elselehdar: 'I was blamed for blocking the Suez Canal'

17. The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man

18. Panic Rooms, Birth Certificates and the Birth of GOP Paranoia by John Boehner (book excerpt)

 

1. A Tribute to Charles Hill

The National Interest · by Daniel Khalessi · April 3, 2021

A giant of a man who was not well-known as a national figure. I commend his biography and his book on Grand Strategies. 

 

2.  Gray Is the New Black: A Framework to Counter Gray Zone Conflicts

ndupress.ndu.edu ·  by Captain Bothwell

I am glad Captain Bothwell calls out the lack of doctrine for the gray zone and the problem with the use of the 6 phase phasing construct as applied to the gray zone. Fortunately Joint Pub 5-0 has eliminated that as a standard template. I think a standard phasing template lacks intellectual rigor (whether applied to the gray zone or for "traditional" campaign plans and stifles the necessary creativity required for campaign planning and execution.

Conclusion: “The gradual, ambiguous nature of gray zone conflicts requires increased understanding of aggression short of war and of new strategies to quell these challenges. Although current doctrine does not adequately address gray zone conflicts, existing planning models can be modified to emphasize shaping and incorporate activities that deter, signal, and, if necessary, coerce opponents into ceasing aggression. These activities will reduce uncertainty and communicate resolve to our adversaries, while setting the operational conditions to coercively stop them, if required. Early U.S. failure to recognize and respond to China’s gray zone actions in the South China Sea has facilitated additional incursions and emboldened Chinese forays into other arenas. New strategy options to mitigate China’s influence are required, and military planning efforts to address this and other gray zone conflicts should follow.

Gray zone conflicts are aspects of the new normal, part of the competitive operational environment that has developed in the post–Cold War era. Joint planning has not yet adequately addressed gray zone conflicts or the gradualist approaches by which they are characterized, allowing opponents—revisionist states—to incrementally achieve their objectives while avoiding military consequences. Unchecked, gray zone conflicts will slowly erode the status quo and undermine U.S. interests. However, the joint force can be more agile. By modifying existing planning models to incorporate countering activities—such as shaping, deterring, signaling, and, if necessary, coercing—the United States can check revisionist intentions. Only by reframing the problem of gray zone conflicts can the United States hope to retain positional advantage where national interests are at stake.

 

3. Is China willing and able to invade Taiwan?

asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · April 2, 2021

The $64,000 question - intent and capability.

The ominous conclusion which I am sure will create some debate and discussion: "All this is to say that it’s impossible to predict exactly when China may move on Taiwan. But with a high degree of confidence (as intelligence types say), this can be said: The PLA is coming."

 

4. In The Shadow Of A Missile: Assessing The Armenian Military’s SS-26 Iskander Debacle

edam.org.tr · by Can Kasapoğlu · March 31, 2021

A variation of the Iskander has been developed, tested, and deployed by north Korea. Are there lessons for the ROK/US alliance?

 

5. The word 'radicalization' has lost all meaning. That's very dangerous

Newsweek · by Simon Cottee · April 2, 2021

Excerpts: “So it wasn't the violent lethality of the protesters that caused the freak-out among progressives, who wasted no time in calling them domestic terrorists. It was, rather, their dirtiness, which was then transformed into dangerousness, all the better for flushing them out. At the same time, the discourse of danger served to mask the imperious revulsion that the elite Democrats felt toward Trump's seething, radicalized, dirty masses.

Despite the high-minded rhetoric, all the "reckonings" that are now going on in America are actually reckonings with dirt. No doubt some of Trump's followers are dangerous. But the real throb which animates the progressive response to his disgruntled base isn't really fear; it is disgust. It is the feeling of being contaminated and sullied by that which doesn't belong, which Trump really was all along.

And one prominent casualty of this is the concept of radicalization, which has now, for many, become a signifier of dirt.

We should resist this degradation of the concept, for if we extend radicalization to include everything foul and odious we perilously risk losing sight of the really lethal threats in our midst.”

 

6. DoD to Spend a Quarter-Billion Dollars Reorganizing Its Data for AI

defenseone.com · by Mila Jasper · April 3, 2021

 

7. Rise of female militants poses challenge for war on terror

straitstimes.com · by Arlina Arshad · April 3, 2021

 

8. U.S. Looks to Build On Secret Portions of Taliban Deal to Reduce Violence

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 4, 2021

Excerpts: “It is unlikely the United States and Taliban will reach a new deal before May 1, analysts say, unless U.S. officials are willing to make serious concessions to prevent a violent offensive this spring, one that seems to already have started given the series of large attacks and assassinations by the Taliban in recent days.

Some experts have criticized the United States’ narrow focus on a short-term reduction of violence as a distraction from the larger effort of reaching a political settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

“I am hard pressed to see what payoff there’s been for the amount of effort that has been put into trying to get limited violence reduction front-loaded in the peace process,” said Laurel E. Miller, a former top State Department official who worked on Afghanistan and Pakistan diplomacy under the previous two administrations. “It might be helpful for political optics in covering for an American withdrawal. But what’s going to make this stick afterward if there isn’t a real settlement? Nothing.”

 

9. When Online Conspiracies Turn Deadly: A Custody Battle and a Killing

WSJ · by Georgia Wells and Justin Scheck

 

More QAnon whackjobs.

 

10. Human Rights Hypocrisy: Why Blinken Misses the Mark

The National Interest · by Russell A. Berman · April 3, 2021

Conclusion: Despite Blinken’s unwillingness to address the tension between deontological rights and utilitarian policy, his overall commitment to rights deserves applause, and not only because the substance of his remarks is largely consistent with the commission’s report. This overlap in rights thinking across the two administrations involves one other particularly salient point. The commission faced strident criticism specifically for grounding the United States’ obligation to a human-rights foreign policy in a distinctively American tradition, the notion since the Declaration of Independence that rights are “unalienable.” Opponents of the Commission complained that grounding rights in an American credo puts us on a slippery slope to cultural relativism, undermining aspirations to the universality of rights. It is therefore particularly noteworthy that in Blinken’s remarks he does not hesitate to justify U.S. rights advocacy explicitly in terms of a distinctive American tradition. “Standing for people’s freedom and dignity honors America’s most sacred values.” Amen.

 

11. Army advisers make first mission to the Maldives, a strategic area of the Indian Ocean

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 4, 2021

 

12. Army captain sets women's world record for mile run in a bomb disposal suit

Stars and Stripes · by Joe Gromelski

Hooah.

 

13.  Philippines Accuses China Of Plans To Occupy More South China Sea 'Features'

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

Is China making a major move?

 

14. The Military Faces of COVID-19: 5 Stories of Lives the Community Lost to the Virus

military.com · by Patricia Kime · April 4, 2021

The impact on the military and families has not received much attention.

 

15. Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company Norinco placed under investigation

SCMP · by Lauren Zhou · April 4, 2021

Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company 

Norinco placed under investigation

• Yin Jiaxu accused of ‘serious violations of discipline and the law’, 
• anti-corruption watchdog says
• Yin was Communist Party chief and chairman of China North 
• Industries Group Corp until his retirement in 2018

 

16.  Marwa Elselehdar: 'I was blamed for blocking the Suez Canal'

BBC News · by Joshua Cheetham

Yep. I saw her accused of this mishap on multiple social media platforms.

 

17. The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man

The Atlantic · by Derek Thompson · April 1, 2021

Misdirection. No one should fall for Berenson's crap.

 

18. Panic Rooms, Birth Certificates and the Birth of GOP Paranoia by John Boehner (book excerpt)

Politico · by ON THE HOUSE

Regardless of your politics this is a fascinating read. I am sure this book by John Beohner will debut at the top of the best seller list.

 

-------------------------

 

"Discipline, however, needs first and foremost leadership, and not regulations. The former can only be provided by example."

- Jorg Muth

 

“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”

- Major General Carl von Clausewitz

 

President Kennedy 1962 USMA gradation:

 “This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origins - war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It requires - in those situations where we must encounter it - a whole new kind of strategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of military training.”

 

President Obama 2009 USNA graduation:

“History teaches us that nations that grow comfortable with the old ways and complacent in the face of new threats, those nations do not long endure. And in the 21st century, we do not have the luxury of deciding which challenges to prepare for and which to ignore. We must overcome the full spectrum of threats – the conventional and unconventional; the nation-state and the terrorists network; the spread of deadly technologies and the spread of hateful ideologies; 18th century-style piracy and 21st century cyber threats.”

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. KNDA chancellor casts critical eye on Korea-US alliance in new book

2. NK’s denuclearization receives fresh attention at top security meetings

3. Pyongyang hunkers down to explore next move

4. US, China push South Korea into tricky balancing act

5. US, Japan, ROK hold meeting on Korean Peninsula situation

6. U.S. 7th Fleet Commander visits South Korea

7. South Korean commission cancels probe into Cheonan warship sinking

8. The Biggest Threats North Korea Made To The US

9. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move

10. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move

11. Keep diplomatic balance (ROK): New strategy needed to avoid US-China rivalry

12. Korea needs to consider joining Quad to make 'Penta'

13. China’s Dangerous Double Game In North Korea

14. S.Korea minister expects China to play role in N.Korea peacemaking

15. US, Asian allies urge North Korea to limit nuclear program

16. Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot

17. US Olympic star Chloe Kim reveals anti-Asian abuse

18. Dire situation in North Korea drives 'collective exit' of diplomats

19. Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers

 

1. KNDA chancellor casts critical eye on Korea-US alliance in new book

koreaherald.com · by Lim Jang-won · April 1, 2021

It saddens me to read this. Although I have always wondered about Chancellor Kim's views of the alliance because during the many conferences I have participated in with him over the years his comments always seemed slightly out of tune, I had no idea of the depths of his anti-alliance sentiment. 

However, I do agree with the theme as notes here:

“The main theme repeated throughout the book is that the South Korea-US alliance should be a means to seek the national interest. In other words, the national interest needs to come first, before the South Korea-US alliance.

There should be no doubt that ROK interests must come first for Korea just as American interests must come first for the US ahead of the alliance. However, I think many of the characterizations of the alliance he describes are not completely accurate. And I think our interest have long been sufficiently aligned to support our respective national interests. Yes there have been many mistakes in the alliance and many friction points but I believe we share values, we share interests and we share common threats and challenges. The friction builds as we have different perspective on how to address those threats and challenges.

That said we must take his views seriously and I hope his book is published in English. I believe his interpretation of the history in the book will be enlightening. The reason we need to take his views seriously is because of this conclusion. I fear his views reflect those of a large segment of the ruling party and the progressives in South Korea:

Conclusion: "While Kim chronicles the past 150 years with expertise, the claim that a book by the head of the country’s major diplomatic institution that is critical of the state of the Korea-US alliance and urges a change reflects solely the personal opinion of an academic is not one that can easily be accepted at face value."

 

2. NK’s denuclearization receives fresh attention at top security meetings

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · April 4, 2021

I think we need to shift from using denuclearization to emphasizing implementation of UN National Security Council Resolutions (such as was in the joint statement from the three national security advisors). The UNSCRs provide the basis for every line of effort for a new policy and strategy - end the full spectrum of WMD programs (nuclear, biological and chemical), end the ballistic program, end proliferation around the world, end global illicit activities, end cyber attacks, end overseas slave labor, and end human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north.

Who is opposed to full implementation of the UNSCRs against the north (other than north Korea, China, and Russia)?

 

3. Pyongyang hunkers down to explore next move

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo  · April 4, 2021

Interesting comment from Harry. I assume he assesses the new US policy will consists of continued pressure and no sanctions relief. The big questions for me are: Will the regime stick to its seven decades old playbook? Or will it abandon that playbook because it has determined that the playbook no longer works? What actions can we take to show Kim his play book, his long con, and his political warfare (and his military ) strategy has not worked and will not work and that he must finally abandoned those failed strategies and enter the community of nations and negotiate responsibly.?

Excerpts: “North Korea watchers said Pyongyang's reclusive actions are not just the outcome of the efforts to contain the coronavirus, but a tactic to handle its diplomatic situation down the road.

"For now, North Korea is hunkering down and limiting any and all information it can," Harry Kazianis, senior director at the U.S.-based think tank Center for the National Interest, told The Korea Times.

"North Korea knows, at least for now, that it will not be able to fully vaccinate its population from COVID-19 nor gain any sort of sanctions relief from the U.S. or its allies anytime soon. What the regime is doing is whatever it can to keep any information outflows to as limited as possible while it plots its next moves forward," Kazianis said. "The Kim family knows the next year will be very hard as likely international pressure will mount as the Joe Biden administration will surely increase pressure and sanctions on the regime."

 

4. US, China push South Korea into tricky balancing act

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · April 4, 2021

The proverbial shrimp among whales.

Key point: "China is also ramping up efforts to strengthen its relations with South Korea to counter the U.S.' anti-Beijing campaign."

 

5. US, Japan, ROK hold meeting on Korean Peninsula situation

chinadaily.com.cn · by 代艳

Reporting from China. Note the concluding paragraph provides north Korea's view of the meetings: "Ri Pyong-chol, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, responded that "such remarks from the US president are an undisguised encroachment on our state's right to self-defense and provocation to it."

 

6. U.S. 7th Fleet Commander visits South Korea

navy.mil · April 1, 2021

Excerpt:  “As the U.S. Navy's largest forward-deployed fleet, 7th Fleet employs 50-70 ships and submarines across the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. U.S. 7th Fleet routinely operates and interacts with 35 maritime nations while conducting missions to preserve and protect a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

 

7. South Korean commission cancels probe into Cheonan warship sinking

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 2, 2021

Good. This was an insult to the families and memories of those 46 sailors who were murdered by north Korea.

 

8. The Biggest Threats North Korea Made To The US

grunge.com · by Thomas A Brown · April 2, 2021

 

9. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move

38north.org · by Leon V. Sigal · April 2, 2021

I think not only is this a fantasy recommendation, it is dangerous. If Biden sends such a letter to Kim and pledges lifting of even some sanctions, Kim will interpret that as success of his long conn, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy. We need to strive for negotiations after and only after Kim Jong-un comes to the realization that his long con, political warfare strategy (and military strategy) and blackmail diplomacy are no longer viable. It is only after he accepts the failure of his seven decades old playbook that he might be willing to come to the table and negotiate a substantive agreement.

Excerpt: "Another possible step might be to pledge to ease some economic sanctions by allowing exemptions from United Nations Security Council sanctions to permit the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Zone or the import of some oil by the North and/or the export of coal or textiles for two years, or as long as negotiations are moving ahead. Communicated in a letter from Biden to Kim, such an initiative would constitute a clear move away from enmity and fitting reciprocity for the North Korean test moratorium, as well as significant inducements to serious and sustained negotiations."

 

10. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move

38north.org · by Leon V. Sigal · April 2, 2021

I think not only is this a fantasy recommendation, it is dangerous. If Biden sends such a letter to Kim and pledges lifting of even some sanctions, Kim will interpret that as success of his long conn, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy. He will then double down and we will see no progress or even a possible path toward desired objectives. We need to strive for negotiations after and only after Kim Jong-un comes to the realization that his long con, political warfare strategy (and military strategy) and blackmail diplomacy are no longer viable. It is only after he accepts the failure of his seven decades old playbook that he might be willing to come to the table and negotiate a substantive agreement.

Excerpt: "Another possible step might be to pledge to ease some economic sanctions by allowing exemptions from United Nations Security Council sanctions to permit the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Zone or the import of some oil by the North and/or the export of coal or textiles for two years, or as long as negotiations are moving ahead. Communicated in a letter from Biden to Kim, such an initiative would constitute a clear move away from enmity and fitting reciprocity for the North Korean test moratorium, as well as significant inducements to serious and sustained negotiations."

 

11. Keep diplomatic balance (ROK): New strategy needed to avoid US-China rivalry

The Korea Times · April 4, 2021

Yes, this is the ROK challenge. How is it going to balance between the PRC and US?

Excerpt: “It appears that the U.S. and China are wooing South Korea to their respective sides amid the great power rivalry. Chung said last Wednesday that South Korea is not in a position to choose between the U.S. and China. Yet, we need a new strategy to prepare for when the rival powers force us to do that.”

 

12. Korea needs to consider joining Quad to make 'Penta'

The Korea Times · by Park Jin · April 4, 2021

Quad - Penta - we need to rebrand the collective organizational concepts for Asia. Key point on the trade equivalency of the Quad and China for South Korea. The key point must be the willingness of the Quad to come to the aid of the South when China (AGAIN) conducts economic warfare against the South.

Excerpts: “South Korea's trade dependence on the Quad is around 25 percent, equivalent to that of China. The four Quad nations are, much like Korea, highly reliant on trade with China. Thus, the argument that Korea's high dependence on trade with China makes joining the Quad an impediment to its partnership with China is invalid.

South Korea and the U.S. have increased their mutual trade and investments through the successful ROK-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Korea has also signed FTAs with Australia and India, and expects to enter indirect free trade relations with Japan through the recently signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). By facilitating regional trade, investments and services, the Quad will greatly contribute to economic growth and prosperity in the region. Seoul should widen and deepen its cooperation with the Quad nations to develop core technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, clean energy, bio-health and cybersecurity. Collaboration for coronavirus vaccine production and equitable access and collective efforts to combat climate change are also important.

South Korea is a dynamic economic powerhouse located in the geopolitical pivot of Northeast Asia. The strategic choice that Korea makes between the U.S. and China will significantly affect the political, economic and security environment of the Indo-Pacific region. Korea joining the Quad is only common sense and an inevitable course of history.

It is only natural for a state that has shared values of liberal democracy and rule of law to join the Quad and make a "Penta," a group of five. Korea should not retract into being an outlier but take a leading role in the formulation of a new democratic order in the region.

 

13. China’s Dangerous Double Game In North Korea

Foreign Affairs · by Oriana Skylar Mastro · April 2, 2021

Important analysis from Dr. Sklyer Mastro.

However, I think arms control negotiations will be deemed by Kim Jong-un as a successful outcome of his strategy and we can expect to double down on his long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy.

One of the many strategic paradoxes on the Korean peninsula:

“If Beijing were to do nothing to assist in denuclearization, the United States could lose confidence in diplomacy and decide instead to increase its military presence on the peninsula or even to take military action. But if Beijing does too much to help the United States, North Korea could collapse, and the whole peninsula could fall within the U.S. orbit.”

I also do not hold out any hope for complete cooperation from China.

Conclusion: “Some Biden advisers, including Kurt Campbell, have called for a bolder approach. One possibility is for Washington to shift its focus from denuclearization to arms control. Under this scenario, the United States would accept North Korea as a de facto nuclear state and take measures to enhance deterrence against it, such as stepping up the U.S. military presence and tightening military cooperation with allies in the region. China would have a harder time than before delegitimizing the U.S. military presence in the region and just might be compelled to do what is necessary to induce North Korea’s denuclearization, even at the cost of destabilizing the regime.

Biden’s new approach to North Korea must force China to tip its carefully constructed balance toward either complete cooperation or obvious obstruction. Depending on which way China goes, the United States can then decide whether to include Beijing or cut it out of its North Korea policy efforts. But one thing is clear: conducting business as usual with Beijing hurts U.S. objectives in both denuclearization and competition with China.

 

14.  S.Korea minister expects China to play role in N.Korea peacemaking

Reuters · by Cynthia Kim and Andrew Galbraith · April 3, 2021

I am not so optimistic.  

 

15.  US, Asian allies urge North Korea to limit nuclear program

DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)

A view from Germany.

 

16. Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot

SCMP  · by John Power · April 4, 2021

This is a very complex issue in Korea.

Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot

• Unlike in the US, South Korean media put heavy emphasis on the race 
• of attackers, many of whom were African-American
• The stark contrast in framing highlights differing sensitivities around 
• race that permeate the two cultures, analysts say

 

17. US Olympic star Chloe Kim reveals anti-Asian abuse

The Korea Times · April 4, 2021

So frustrating and tragic. We have to be better than this.

 

18. Dire situation in North Korea drives 'collective exit' of diplomats

The Guardian · by Andrew Roth · April 1, 2021

Indicators of the situation inside north Korea and Pyongyang.

 

19. Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Chea Sarah

The soft power terrain is being contested between China and South Korea.

Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers

 

------------------

"Discipline, however, needs first and foremost leadership, and not regulations. The former can only be provided by example."

- Jorg Muth

 

“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”

- Major General Carl von Clausewitz

 

President Kennedy 1962 USMA gradation:

 “This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origins - war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It requires - in those situations where we must encounter it - a whole new kind of strategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of military training.”

 

President Obama 2009 USNA graduation:

“History teaches us that nations that grow comfortable with the old ways and complacent in the face of new threats, those nations do not long endure. And in the 21st century, we do not have the luxury of deciding which challenges to prepare for and which to ignore. We must overcome the full spectrum of threats – the conventional and unconventional; the nation-state and the terrorists network; the spread of deadly technologies and the spread of hateful ideologies; 18th century-style piracy and 21st century cyber threats.”

A book for review. If you are interested in reviewing this book for Small Wars Journal, please email submit@smallwarsjournal.com (and please use a clear subject line for the sake of our editor). We can discuss getting a hard copy if you are conducting a review for us.

The full book is available for free online: https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/OnContestedShores_web.pdf?ver=AazTk0F5BiI2fIn8ElhCBA%3d%3d  

Analysis and commentary on recent testimony before the House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations on the state of the special operations community

https://sof.news/sof/congressional-hearing-sof-culture-climate-mar-2021/

Panel Participants. 

Ms. Linda Robinson is a long-time observer of US SOF. She is the author of Masters of Chaos: The Secret History of the Special Forces and of numerous papers and articles about SOF. Currently she is the Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation.

Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, US Army (Ret.) had a long career in SOF spanning over 3 decades with US Army Special Forces and other special mission units (SMUs). He is a former commander of Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT).

Ms. Kate Germano retired from the United States Marine Corps with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. She is the author of Fight Like a Girl: The Truth Behind How Female Marines Are Trained. The book details her professional battle against systemic gender bias in the Marines.

Mr. Mark Mitchell is a retired 0-6 that served many years in U.S. Army Special Forces. He is also a former (acting) Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict (SO/LIC). He is a frequent commentator and writer about SOF and the need for ASD SO/LIC to have a closer relationship with the Secretary of Defense and more oversight on United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).

A conversation with Col. Brian Rauen and Capt. Barrett Martin from 10th Special Forces Group and Dr. Ryan Burke of Project 6633

https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-special-operations-forces-in-the-high-north/

 

"The US Army’s Special Forces groups are largely oriented toward specific regions, and 10th Group has a particular focus on Europe—which means they have a natural organizational interest in the Arctic region. Last year, Capt. Martin led a team that went to the high northern latitudes in Europe to train alongside Norwegian and Swedish forces. He shares some of what his team learned during that experience, and Col. Rauen talks about why the Arctic is an area of growing importance for 10th Group. They also discuss some of the especially unique challenges posed to special operations forces working in such an extreme environment.

10th Group and Project 6633 have also partnered to host an essay contest, inviting submissions that address the question of how American special operations forces can compete with near-peer adversaries in the polar regions. If you’re interested in entering the contest, you can find more details here."

Link: https://mwi.usma.edu/the-united-kingdom-doubles-down-on-covert-operations/

A commentary on role of covert operations in the UK's recent integrated defense review

 

"Two weeks ago, the British government published its most significant review of defense, security, and foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It will likely usher in a new era of British covert interventionism.

The 114-page integrated review, titled “Global Britain in a Competitive Age,” emphasizes “Global Britain,” a slogan coined by the governing Conservative Party in the aftermath of the country’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016. The review highlights that the British government wants to maintain global influence, including by tilting toward the geographically distant Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, however, Britain perennially lacks the capabilities sufficient to meet its ambitions—and even more so now given the damage Covid-19 has done to the British economy.

In an attempt to reconcile global ambitions with limited means, the review, together with an accompanying Defence Command Paper, emphasizes secret intelligence, special operations forces, and offensive cyber capabilities. They will be used to disrupt, deter, deny, and degrade Britain’s adversaries. All are tools of force multiplication; the power of the hidden hand will allow Britain to do more with less."