News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

​1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

3.Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

Axios · by Mike Allen

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · March 25, 2021

An important essay today.

America must embrace its irregular warfare capabilities and be able to compete in Great Power Competition where dominant ' 'fight" is best described as political warfare.  Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare (and by DODD 3000.7 and the IW annex to the NDS consists of CT, FID, UW, COIN< and stability operations).

Although I am heartened by the author citing some of Bob Jones important work on unconventional deterrence I am disappointed he did not point out one of the most important sentences in the interim guidance: "We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions." Unconventional warfare is the foundation of irregular warfare and conventional warfare is at the root of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the second being the comparative advantages of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indefgeigenous forces and population.

 UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) un.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of a population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it is an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP.

I am heartened to see the Biden administration use unconventional warfare when there are so many antibodies out there against it.

But I also commend Congress for providing the best description of irregular warfare that will never be adopted by the doctrine gatekeepers on the Joint Staff.  In the 2018 NDAA it wrote: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

3. Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

I wonder if some poor congressional staffer will be fired for providing bad information to a Congressman.

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “While NGI remains in development, “our overall missile defense and defeat posture can be reoriented to regional threats, specifically that of complex and integrated air and missile attack from the likes of China,” Karako said.

After weeks of defense officials warning that North Korea could re-start its missile testing program after a long hiatus, the country’s reclusive leader, Kin Jong-Un, ordered a test firing of what a Biden administration official called a “short-range” missile system last weekend. The official, speaking with reporters late Tuesday, said the missile type isn’t subject to U.N. Security Council resolutions. Because it falls under the threshold of what concerns the international community, the official said that “it probably gives you an indication of where it falls on the spectrum of concern.”

The Missile Defense Agency has estimated that testing of the NGI could happen by the mid-2020s, and if all goes well they could begin to be put into silos by 2028.

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

Sure it seems far-fetched. But that is what analysts thought in 1995 when the Al Qaeda laptop was captured in Manila that described plans to kill the Pope and POTUS, bomb aircraft in flight (which did happen to a Northwest Airlines flight that had to make an emergency landing in Okinawa after a small device exploded), and use commercial aircraft to fly into buildings in the US.

As Sun Tzu said, "Do not assume the enemy will not attack.  Make yourself invincible."

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

longwarjournal.org · by Caleb Weiss · March 23, 2021

Are we paying attention?

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

I strongly believe in our alliance structure. 

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 24, 2021

Video at the link.

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

The National Interest · by Chad Wolf · March 21, 2021

I understand we are down to about 50 Confucius Institutes from about 105. I am not sure if that is correct but I recently saw those numbers discussed.

We have to strike the right balance between academic freedom, protecting our values, and effectively employing our soft power for influence, and China's nefarious activities using all means available to do damage to the US way of life.

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 24, 2021

We have not been sufficiently effective in stopping this scourge so we have to do better.

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

The National Interest · by Gordon G. Chang · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “China now has a crisis. “Once it slips below 1.5, a country falls into the trap of low fertility and is unlikely to recover,” said He Yafu to the Communist Party’s Global Times. China is already well below that figure.

Beijing does not believe China’s population will begin to decline until 2028. Some believe it in fact began contracting in 2018, something evident by falling births.

In any event, as the official China Daily stated in December, “the trends are irreversible.”

That’s not good for the People’s Republic of China. As analyst Andy Xie wrote in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post this month, “Population decline could end China’s civilization as we know it.”

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

sof.news · by Pat Carty · March 24, 2021

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

eastasiaforum.org · by Larry Diamond · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States and its liberal democratic allies, such as Australia, Canada, the European Union and hopefully Japan, must work through diplomacy and aid flows to preserve civil society groups and independent media. These democracies will have more impact if they coordinate their activities and prioritise the diffusion of technologies to help democrats evade digital surveillance and censorship. In some instances — and sadly for Hong Kongers — established liberal democracies may need to provide a temporary or even long-term home for democrats at risk.

In the near term, the priority may need to be containing the democratic retreat and countering the rise of authoritarian China. In some countries, this means just trying to keep democrats alive. But the growing demands of young people in the region for more open and accountable government offer hope that this authoritarian moment will have an expiration date.”

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 24, 2021

Hmmm...not a good look for the regiment.

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

pna.gov.ph · by Priam Nepomuceno · March 24, 2021

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

AP · by Jim Gomez · March 21, 2021

Excerpt: “The militants have been considerably weakened by years of military offensives, surrenders and battle setbacks but remain a national security threat. They set off a security alarm in the region in recent years after they started venturing away from their jungle encampments in Sulu, a poverty wracked Muslim province in the largely Roman Catholic nation, and staged kidnappings in Malaysian coastal towns and targeted crews of cargo ships.”

-------------------

"Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor's decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense."

- C. Robert Kehler

"Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't." 

- Sir Lawrence Freedman

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

 - General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea's missile launch may be timed to precede Biden's first press briefing: NIS

2. S. Korea deeply concerned about N. Korea's projectile launch: NSC

3. Gov't Becomes Craven Lackey of N.Korean Dictatorship

4. Clarity, not ambiguity

5. How dangerous is North Korea's military arsenal right now?

6. U.S. to Deal with N.Korea 'from Position of Strength'

7. Russian FM calls for efforts to keep peace on peninsula after N.K. missile launches

8. How Kim Jong Un keeps advancing his nuclear program

9. Missiles fly after US nabs North Korea operative

10. Human Rights Will Continue to Polarize Washington and Seoul on North Korea

11. North Korea Positioning Itself to Play 'Nuclear Blackmail'

12. North Korea lambastes 'human rights clown show' after U.N. resolution

13. Report: Missiles fired by North Korea may have been displayed at parade

14. US touts renewed military drills after 'low-end' North Korean

15. Concerns over rights issue

16. U.S. focused on denuclearization of N. Korea: Pentagon spokesman

17. Biden administration will host Japan and South Korea for North Korea discussions

1. N. Korea's missile launch may be timed to precede Biden's first press briefing: NIS

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · March 25, 2021

Hmmm....Okay, at least someone is trying to connect the dots. But I do not think the regime's actions are that tactical.  I think the totality of actions are more strategic and focused on undermining the forthcoming Biden Korea policy as well as the long held effort to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.

I think Kim will be disappointed that the White House press corps will focus on the wide range of other issues and the missile launches will not be the priority since the most likely response from POTUS will be that we are finalizing our Korea policy and it would be premature to discuss it at this press conference.

2. S. Korea deeply concerned about N. Korea's projectile launch: NSC

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · March 25, 2021

I hope this contributes to being a wake-up call for the Moon administration and there is an admission of their erroneous strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Kim does not share President  Moon's vision of a Peace agenda.

3. Gov't Becomes Craven Lackey of N.Korean Dictatorship

english.chosun.com

Brutal criticism of the Moon administration (and some about the US for leaking information!).  Again, I hate to beat the dead horse but it is time for the Moon administration to re-evaluate its strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. More sound assumptions would not only prevent this criticism but would prevent the actions that lead to this criticism.

4. Clarity, not ambiguity

The Korea Times · by Shim Jae-yun · March 24, 2021

I concur that strategic clarity is needed in Korea. We need absolute clarity about the nature, objectives and strategy of the Kim family regime.  But I disagree with everything else in the author's essay.  We can gain clarity by answer these key questions:

Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) through a superior form of political warfare and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

5. How dangerous is North Korea's military arsenal right now?

CNN · by Brad Lendon

Do not underestimate north Korea.  But Kim Jong-un is not 10 feet tall.  There is no doubt we have the military capability to not only defeat but destroy the nKPA.  However, if we employ a superior form of political warfare we can achieve the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.

6. U.S. to Deal with N.Korea 'from Position of Strength'

english.chosun.com

The only way to deal with north Korea is from a position of strength. That is the only thing that deters north Korea.  However, it is not only military strength that is necessary - we need the strength of all elements of national power to be applied to the problem of the Kim family regime.  The regime will exploit weakness and any hint of appeasement or of providing concessions to the regime will be assessed as successful political warfare and blackmail diplomacy and will cause the regime to double down and make more demands from the ROK, the US, and the international community.

7. Russian FM calls for efforts to keep peace on peninsula after N.K. missile launches

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 25, 2021

Beware Russia as a spoiler.

Some interesting comments: “Touching on the launches, Chung said he expressed "deep concern."

"South Korea and Russia agreed to continue close communication and cooperation for progress on the Korean Peninsula peace process," Chung said.

"I also asked for Russia to continue to play a constructive role going forward," he added.

Also in his press statement, Lavrov stressed that Russia is interested in an "open and inclusive" forum for regional cooperation -- in what appears to be a rebuke of the United States' push to cement the Quad forum involving Australia, Japan and India.

Noting that Chung has reaffirmed Seoul's invitation for Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit here, Lavrov said that the two sides decided to discuss the matter when the COVID-19 situation stabilizes.”

8. How Kim Jong Un keeps advancing his nuclear program

Stars and Stripes · by Jon Herskovitz · March 24, 2021

If something is your number one priority and you are willing to commit all resources to it, to include those that should be to provide for the welfare of the Korean people in the north, of course you are going to be able to advance your nuclear problem.

9. Missiles fly after US nabs North Korea operative

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · March 24, 2021

Again I am glad to see the press and pundits trying to connect the dots.  The Malaysia extradition and eventual trial of Mun Chol Myong will be a significant event since it hits directly at the Kim family regime's global illicit activities network that feeds the royal court economy. 

However, I do not think the regime is launching missiles merely to show displeasure with the extradition.  It is part of its larger political warfare strategy.

But as noted we need to become more aggressive in going after the regime's global illicit activities and those who operate and support the network.

10. Human Rights Will Continue to Polarize Washington and Seoul on North Korea

The National Interest · by Jason Bartlett · March 24, 2021

Very true. This will continue to be an going point of alliance friction until the two allies agree that human rights is not only a moral imperative but is a national security issue because Kim jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to survive and remain in power.  Not only is focusing on the suffering of the Korean people the right thing to do, it is a critical line of effort in a combined political warfare strategy (to include information and influence activities)  to solve the "Korea questions." (Para 60 of the Armistice).

And this article also illustrates why the ROK and US must sufficiently align their strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

11. North Korea Positioning Itself to Play 'Nuclear Blackmail'

news.usni.org · by John Grady · March 24, 2021

Yep!

Excerpts: “During the Hudson event before the latest tests, Evans J.R. Revere, retired State Department official and senior director of the Albright Stonebridge Group, said, Kim “was doubling down” on remaining a nuclear state by introducing threats of new weapons during the Congress. “He reminded us the DPRK [Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea] is and will remain a nuclear state.”

Kim realizes that “China will not do” much to rebuild a North Korean economy ravaged by global economic collapse, major storms and tightening international sanctions, though economic improvement would secure Kim’s hold on power. The North Korean leader also knows the message he sends Beijing about remaining a nuclear power is not in its interest either, Brooks said.

Kim “was doubling down” on remaining a nuclear state by introducing threats of new weapons, Evans J.R. Revere, a retired State Department official and senior director of the Albright Stonebridge Group, said during the event.

I take slight exception to General Brooks' comments about China and north Korea's economy.  China has tried to get the north Koreans to adopt Chinese style economic reforms for decades but the regime has always pushed back against it because it would lead to the undoing of the regime.  (It also pushes back on ROK engagement as well).  But if it were to adopt Chinese style economic reforms I would bet the Chinese would provide substantial economic aid to rebuild the north Korean economy. (but of course there is also the huge corruption issue inside north Korea that prevents any kind of normal functioning economy).

And per Evans Revere's last comment below about arms control negotiations: that will be assessed as a win for Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.”

12. North Korea lambastes 'human rights clown show' after U.N. resolution

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 24, 2021

The regime is deathly afraid of any focus on human rights.  It is an existential threat to the regime. When we focus on its nuclear program we reinforce its legitimacy.  When we focus on human rights we undermine it.

13. Report: Missiles fired by North Korea may have been displayed at parade

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 24, 2021

Of course Kim told us he is developing new systems.  They have to test and train to advance their programs.  

But again timing is everything.  It may be they simply had to test to advance to the next step.  On the other hand the timing is very useful in trying to undermine the Biden Korea policy and try to establish conditions favorable to the regime through the use of blackmail diplomacy )the use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions).

14. US touts renewed military drills after 'low-end' North Korean

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 23, 2021

Yes our alliances are key to national security and consultation is critically important.  But we also have to act in concert against the common threat.

15. Concerns over rights issue

The Korea Times · March 24, 2021

Again, in addition to sufficient alignment of strategic assumptions, the alliance must get on the same sheet of music regarding human rights.

16. U.S. focused on denuclearization of N. Korea: Pentagon spokesman

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 24, 2021

I think we are going to be arguing about these phrases for some time to come. Which I think is a good thing because the debate helps us to expose Kim Jong-un's strategy. Sun Tzu said: "Thus, what is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy"

We can (and must) always argue the two key points. - north Korea has not lived up to its promises to denuclearize the entire Korean peninsula (1992 - north-South Agreement on Denuclearization and all subsequent agreements on denuclearization) while the South and he US have.  And second, the north remains in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions on weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missiles, human rights, proliferation, cyber activities, and global illicit activities.

17. Biden administration will host Japan and South Korea for North Korea discussions

Axios · by Sarah Mucha

-------------

"Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor's decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense."

- C. Robert Kehler

"Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't." 

- Sir Lawrence Freedman

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

 - General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone - Modern War Institute

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · March 25, 2021

An important essay today.America must embrace its irregular warfare capabilities and be able to compete in Great Power Competition where dominant ' 'fight" is best described as political warfare. Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare (and by DODD 3000.7 and the IW annex to the NDS consists of CT, FID, UW, COIN< and stability operations).

Although I am heartened by the author citing some of Bob Jones important work on unconventional deterrence I am disappointed he did not point out one of the most important sentences in the interim guidance: "We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions." Unconventional warfare is the foundation of irregular warfare and conventional warfare is at the root of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the second being the comparative advantages of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indefgeigenous forces and population.

 UW thinking informs everything SF​/SOF​ should do​.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) ​un​.​

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of ​a​ population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it is an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP.

​I am heartened to ​see the Biden administration use unconventional warfare when there are so many antibodies out there against it.

​But I also commend Congress for ​providing the best description of irregular warfare that will never be adopted by the doctrine gatekeepers on the Joint Staff. In the 2018 NDAA it wrote: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. ‘Land Forces Are Hard To Kill’: Army Chief Unveils Pacific Strategy

2.  Russia, China and the United States: First Shots

3. Opinion | China Doesn’t Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

4. China exploits US-Philippine strategic weakness

5. Army revamping how it positions, maneuvers global force as it faces an assertive China

6. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran build ties as U.N. friends feud with U.S.

7. US sounds support for Philippines in dispute over loitering Chinese fishing vessels

8. Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China — will Biden back them up?

9. Asian American Lives and Livelihoods Don't Just Deserve Our Qualified Support

10. More Than a Few Good Women: Improving Hemispheric Security by Advancing Gender Inclusivity in Military and Police

11. America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy

12. Strike squad of just 100 Brit Marines smashed 1,500 US troops in war games drill

13. Veteran Navy SEAL eyes 2022 U.S. Senate run in Georgia

14. China Lashes Out at U.S. Allies in Bid to Thwart Biden Strategy

15. How the U.S. Should Respond to China's Belt and Road

16. Expand, Consolidate, Centralize: Organizational Reform in the Next National Security Strategy

17. When It Comes to Strategy, People Are Everything

18. Introducing the Irregular Warfare Initiative

19. Prosecutors allege Oath Keepers leader and Proud Boys coordinated before Capitol attack

1. ‘Land Forces Are Hard To Kill’: Army Chief Unveils Pacific Strategy

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Maybe they will survive but I expect the CSA will receive a lot of incoming fire over this idea that ground forces are survivable in INDOPACOM.

The 39 page CSA paper on Army Multi-Domain Transformation: Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict can be downloaded here.

What strikes me from the graphic below showing the 2 star Multi Domain Task Force is that there are no ground maneuver forces (e.g., infantry or armor).

2. Russia, China and the United States: First Shots

geopoliticalfutures.com · By George Friedman · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Could a Russo-Chinese alliance launch a naval assault in the east and a ground attack in the west simultaneously? Perhaps. But doing so, while politically shocking, would not weaken either front because it would be engaging naval forces not needed in the west and ground forces not needed in the east. It may also fail. If it succeeded, it would trigger existential (nuclear) choices or create unshakeable anti-Russia and anti-China alliances.

The more logical and less risky move is for China to reach a political and economic agreement with the United States, and for Russia to do the same, at least with Europe. But to do this, each must be convinced that the U.S. is not interested in a settlement. Showing a lack of interest is the foundation of any bargaining position. The best read is that the U.S. knows that bargaining is coming and is therefore posing as hostile to it. The Chinese have called the Americans’ bet. The Russians shortly will. At any rate now is the time for insults and threats, before we get down to business that may fail regardless of all this.”

3. Opinion | China Doesn’t Respect Us Anymore — for Good Reason

The New York Times · by Thomas L. Friedman · March 23, 2021

Excerpt:  “Whenever I point this out, critics on the far right or far left ridiculously respond, “Oh, so you love China.” Actually, I am not interested in China. I care about America. My goal is to frighten us out of our complacency by getting more Americans to understand that China can be really evil AND really focused on educating its people and building its infrastructure and adopting best practices in business and science and promoting government bureaucrats on merit — all at the same time. Condemning China for the former will have zero impact if we’re not its equal in all of the latter.”

4. China exploits US-Philippine strategic weakness

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · March 24, 2021

Which should not be a surprise. But is it only because the interim strategic guidance did not mention the Philippines as an ally?

5.  Army revamping how it positions, maneuvers global force as it faces an assertive China

Stars and Stripes · by Wyatt Olsen · March 24, 2021

6. China, Russia, North Korea, Iran build ties as U.N. friends feud with U.S.

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · March 23, 2021

The teams are lining up on each side of the playing field getting ready for the big game.

Excerpt: “Among the primary tenets of the group are the "non-interference in the internal affairs of States, peaceful settlement of disputes, and to refrain from the use or threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, as enshrined in the UN Charter."

The Biden administration, for its part, has also been busy shoring up its alliances and partnerships. Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin conducted an Asia tour ahead of the Alaska talks with China, and both have also spoken out in support of the Cold War-era NATO military coalition, comprised today of 30 countries.

Blinken met Tuesday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and, among other major issues, discussed "concern over Russia and China's malign activity and disinformation efforts."

"We will stand resolutely against Russian aggression and other actions that try to undermine our Alliance, and I think that that approach is exactly where NATO is as well," Blinken said. "And similarly, we have to and we will, I believe, make sure that NATO is also focused on some of the challenges that China poses to the rules-based international order, that is part of the 2030 vision as well."

7. US sounds support for Philippines in dispute over loitering Chinese fishing vessels

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · March 24, 2021

8. Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China — will Biden back them up?

The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · March 23, 2021

I am pretty sure they were doing so with the President's backing already.

9. Asian American Lives and Livelihoods Don't Just Deserve Our Qualified Support

rand.org · by Douglas Yeung, Peter Nguyen, and Regina A. Shih

Excerpts: “Many who would stand with the Asian American community, including President Biden, have spoken up to offer their support. But too often this amounts to just words, particularly when they invoke a separate justification for that support. Transactional arguments reinforce the notion that Asian Americans are not independently worthy of support absent some self-interested motive. Truly meaningful support would affirm our inherent value and humanity, freeing us from playing a part in someone else's movie.

If Asian Americans are to be truly seen as a diverse community rather than a monolith, as both a long-standing and constantly-refreshed part of the American story, support for our lives and livelihoods must be unconditional. This requires taking action that is specifically meant to benefit Asian Americans—no matter our population size, not just along the way of benefiting someone else.”

10. More Than a Few Good Women: Improving Hemispheric Security by Advancing Gender Inclusivity in Military and Police

cfr.org · by Paul J. Angelo

Conclusion: “Building lasting solutions to these challenges begins by acknowledging the unique and consequential contributions of women to the provision of security. In the United States, following President Joe Biden’s announcement of General Richardson’s nomination, a conservative television commentator derided the supposed feminization of the U.S. military. His comments inspired quick and far-ranging rebuke, including from the Pentagon’s most senior leaders who unanimously extolled the importance and necessity of women in uniform. The countries of Latin America and the Caribbean would be wise to follow this example as they endeavor to get a handle on the scourge of violent crime that has beset the region. Women’s security is human security, and it is well past time that women have full and equal participation in protecting their communities and countries.”

11. America Is Overtaking China in Vaccine Diplomacy

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “Let’s not take this line of argument too far. A country that has suffered 540,000 deaths (and counting) from Covid-19 can hardly crow about brilliant performance. The pandemic has laid bare some deeply disturbing things about American polarization and political dysfunction. But it also reminds us that U.S., whether in global wars or a global pandemic, has traditionally been a second-half team: It starts slowly and then pours it on through a mix of ingenuity and sheer resources.

The pandemic demonstrates that the combination of private-sector innovation and occasionally enlightened government policy can still produce amazing results. Not least, it shows that first impressions are often misleading: Histories of World War II written in February 1942 wouldn’t have been very favorable to the U.S.

Covid-19 still has some nasty surprises, perhaps in the form of deadly mutations, in store for America and the world. But from here on out, it’s less likely to reveal crippling U.S. weaknesses than to advertise the country’s still-imposing strengths.”

12. Strike squad of just 100 Brit Marines smashed 1,500 US troops in war games drill

The Sun · by Jerome Starkey · March 19, 2021

Hmmm,...

Excerpts:

“The £400million drill in California had to be cut short because the British victory was so swift and unexpected.

Chief of the Defence Staff, General Sir Nick Carter, told The Sun yesterday: “This has overturned the principles of war. Mass is no longer the asset it once was — it is all about effect. If you concentrate your force, you are vulnerable.

“On the modern battlefield you want maximum dispersion to give your opponent maximum doubt.

13. Veteran Navy SEAL eyes 2022 U.S. Senate run in Georgia

ajc.com · by Greg Bluestein

14.  China Lashes Out at U.S. Allies in Bid to Thwart Biden Strategy

Bloomberg · by Bloomberg News · March 23, 2021

This should be an indicator that we are on the right track with our focus on allies. It is a threat to the PRC.

15. How the U.S. Should Respond to China's Belt and Road

cfr.org  by Jacob J. Lew, Gary Roughead, Jennifer Hillmanm and David Sacks

The 190 page report can be downloaded here.

16. Expand, Consolidate, Centralize: Organizational Reform in the Next National Security Strategy

thestrategybridge.org · March 24, 2021

Can an NSS do all of this? Pretty ambitious.

Conclusion: “Still, U.S. officials can do more, and they should propose more reforms in the next National Security Strategy. They should solidify the initial steps taken by the Biden administration and make these new members statutory for all future administrations. The U.S. should look at ways to deepen coordination and cooperation with non-governmental organizations and businesses. The administration should further centralize national security planning wherever possible, regardless if such changes require either an expansion of power, personnel, or resources at the National Security Council. History shows that organizational reform remains critical to the strategic success of a country in the face of unprecedented challenges. The architects of the next National Security Strategy should learn this now, rather than later.”

17. When It Comes to Strategy, People Are Everything

warontherocks.com · by Morgan Plummer · March 24, 2021

Personnel is policy and strategy too!

Conclusion: “If the United States doesn’t “get there first,” how will it react and adapt to that new reality? If the United States can’t “buy not build” everything that it needs, how will it fill the capability gaps that will, inevitably, remain? Will there ever be a system of business processes that allows the United States to “get there fast” enough in an age of digital revolution? Although each technology-based theory currently employed is necessary, they do not assure future victory because they largely ignore the precious commodity most underutilized by the Department of Defense: human capital. A human capital-focused strategy for defense modernization is not just additive — it serves as a hedge against the strategic uncertainty innate to all the others. All other theories assume the strategic flexibility of a talent pool that the Defense Department has named, the National Security Innovation Base, but is still failing to meaningfully access. Sacrificing vital investments in people, the fountainhead of American innovation and creativity, for improved processes or to exclusively fund technological wonders that will be outdated almost immediately after development, is a critical error. In the past, the United States employed technology as the mantric answer to all questions related to maintaining superiority in an increasingly multi-polar world. In an age where ideas and technologies go global at the press of a button, the department’s old incantations are insufficient. At best, technology, by itself, is an outdated and incomplete answer to a barely understood question. A national defense strategy focused on people, both inside and outside the Department of Defense, doesn’t just complete the answer to our great national questions. It is the answer.”

18. Introducing the Irregular Warfare Initiative

mwi.usma.edu · by Jacob N. Shapiro · March 24, 2021

Outstanding initiative.

19. Prosecutors allege Oath Keepers leader and Proud Boys coordinated before Capitol attack

CNN · by Katelyn Polantz

Sigh....

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“The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the ‘Dear Leader Absolutism’ dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one’s mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People.”

- Hwang Jang Yop (father of north Korean Juche ideology), 2 DEC 99

"We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions."

-2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance 

"Nothing contributes so much to tranquilize the mind as a steady purpose--a point on which the soul may fix its intellectual eye."

- Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, in "Frankenstein" (1818)

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. North Korea conducts first weapons test of Biden's presidency

2. North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration

3.  Pyongyang missile test a ‘mild’ challenge to Biden

4. S.Korea Keeps Hands off N.Korea Rights Resolution

5. N. Korea fired two cruise missiles off west coast Sunday: JCS

6. Pro-N.K. paper says verbal message between leader Kim, China's Xi signals stronger relations

7. Overseas traders express disappointment at North Korea's failure to "protect" Mun Chol Myong

8. Two Storm Corps soldiers suffer major injuries after stepping on landmine

9. North Korea denounces 'psychotic' EU for rights sanctions

10. Defense ministry opens new war remains identification center

11. U.N. adopts resolution on N.K. human rights for 19th consecutive year

12. After Landmark Extradition, North Korean in US Court on Money Laundering Charges

13. Petulant Pyongyang Ticks Off Putrajaya

14. Fact check: Did Kim Jong Un call Joe Biden a thug during a speech?

15. The North Korean-Syrian Partnership: Bright Prospects Ahead

1. North Korea conducts first weapons test of Biden's presidency

CNN · by Zachary Cohen, Oren Liebermann, Barbara Starr and Kevin Liptak · March 23, 2021

Here is the buried lede for Korea watchers: 

“Senior administration officials said Tuesday that the policy review is in its "final stages" and that Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, would host his Japanese and South Korean counterparts next week in Washington to discuss the matter in depth.”

As I have written I hope when the announcement of the new policy is made it includes the nominations of the new Special Representative for north Korea, the new Special Envoy for north Korean human rights, the new US Ambassador to the ROK, and the new US military commander in Korea (UNC/ROK/US CFC/USFK).  Personnel is policy.

But it is this humorous comment that is troubling and if this kind of thinking prevails and influences the Biden team we will continue to be outplayed by Kim and his long con, his political warfare strategy, and his blackmail diplomacy.

“Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, which specializes in open-source intelligence, told CNN on Tuesday that North Korea appears to have tested a coastal defense cruise missile, which he said would be "fairly routine and, all things considered, a very mild response to the US-South Korea military drill."

"On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being a test of a new intercontinental ballistic missile and 1 is Kim farting in our general direction, this is a 2," he added.

The problem I have is when pundits and policy makers look at each incident in a vacuum or isolation and they fail to connect the dots and choose not to recognize and address the north Korean strategy.  Sure we can downplay this and say the door remains open to engagement and claim this was not a ballistic missile test that did violate UN Security Council resolutions.  However, our mistake is to not look at the totality of recent events and statements.  It is clear to me that this seemingly minor test is part of an effort to ensure the new Biden Korea policy is dead on arrival and the continued effort to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. Read the statements from Kim Yo-jong and Choe Son-hui.  The recent renewal of the closer than lips and teeth PRC-DPRK alliance is a signal that the China line of effort as part of the Biden Korean policy to press it to influence north Korea is not feasible - China is siding with north Korea.

And in the end Kim is trying to shape the environment and provide Biden only one option to pursue his new policy of principled diplomacy.  Since Kim likely assesses Biden wants to implement an effective and successful foreign policy (e.g., Biden "wants it" more than Kim) any negotiation will first require a lifting of sanctions to some degree. This will be required for Kim to just agree to participate in talks.  And in addition, these recent actions and statements have the added benefit of supporting the divide to conquer line of effort of Kim's political warfare strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK.

To counter this the Biden administration should expose Kim's strategy.  This is the only way to inoculate the new Korea policy and ensure it is not dead on arrival.   The Korean and American publics as well as the international community need to understand what Kim is doing.  Neither the ROK nor the US should be minimizing the north's actions and even if this seems like a minor provocation it is imperative we look at the situation holistically.  Our new approach to north Korea must include effective information and influence activities (in coordination with the ROK) and a superior political warfare strategy to be able to outplay Kim Jong-un.

2. North Korea fires short-range missiles in challenge to Biden administration

The Washington Post · by John Hudson and Ellen Nakashima · March 23, 2021

The Washington Post gets credit for breaking this news.

3. Pyongyang missile test a ‘mild’ challenge to Biden

asiatimes.com · by Paul Handley · March 23, 2021

Again, it seems like every pundit and the press want to minimize this.  Yes it was a minor test, and yes neither the South nor the US reacted.  But we are not taking a holistic approach to the totality of north Korean actions and statements and we are trying to understand Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy.

4. S.Korea Keeps Hands off N.Korea Rights Resolution

english.chosun.com · March 24, 2021

This is a (continued) mistake. The ROK needs to take a human rights stand against the suffering  of the Korean people in the north.  

5. N. Korea fired two cruise missiles off west coast Sunday: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 24, 2021

Excerpt: “He refused to disclose other details, including their exact type, flight range and apogee, only saying that South Korean and U.S. authorities have been analyzing details and closely monitoring related moves.”

6. Pro-N.K. paper says verbal message between leader Kim, China's Xi signals stronger relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 24, 2021

The only alliance partners these two countries have.  Closer than lips and teeth.

7. Overseas traders express disappointment at North Korea's failure to "protect" Mun Chol Myong

dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi · March 24, 2021

Excellent. Morale is down at the Office. Office 39 that is. The second and third order effects on the regime could be devastating.  I would argue that a focus on either generating defections or possible "turning" members of the Office could achieve some success with possible big dividends in the future.

8. Two Storm Corps soldiers suffer major injuries after stepping on landmine

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · March 24, 2021

Excerpt: “The military will also hold the soldiers’ company commander and political guidance officers responsible for the incident, the source said. The military leadership claims that there were problems not only with the soldiers’ careless behavior but also with the senior officials who failed to manage the situation properly.”

9. North Korea denounces 'psychotic' EU for rights sanctions

straitstimes.com · March 24, 2021

Kim Jong-un is personally threatened when the international community focuses on north Koran human rights.

10. Defense ministry opens new war remains identification center

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · March 24, 2021

Shared values.  How many other countries have facilities solely focused on identifying their war dead?

Excerpt: "With the completion of building the new identification center, the agency is expected to become the world's only organization with an integrated system that covers the whole procedure from recovery to identification," the ministry said in a release.

11. U.N. adopts resolution on N.K. human rights for 19th consecutive year

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · March 24, 2021

At least the UN is consistent on this issue.

12. After Landmark Extradition, North Korean in US Court on Money Laundering Charges

rfa.org · by Erin Ji · March 23, 2021

My comments in the article.

13. Petulant Pyongyang Ticks Off Putrajaya

rfa.org

This is why north Korea's diplomatic outposts are so important to the regime.  Can we build on our legal action and focus on others from Office 39 who are conducting illicit activities around the world.  If we ever want to be able to conduct a strategic strangulation campaign against Kim Jong-un we must focus on this network.

Excerpts: “It was a self-defeating move by North Korea, which has few friends. The communist state, which is led today by Kim Jong Un, has formal diplomatic ties with more than 160 countries but mostly on paper.

Only 24 countries have embassies in Pyongyang, while North Korea has a few dozen diplomatic missions abroad. Beyond serving basic functions of diplomacy, Pyongyang’s embassies have an essential function of procuring hard currency, evading sanctions, and procuring technology and luxury goods for the regime, as well documented by reports.

They are essential sources of funding – largely illicit – for the cash-strapped and constantly sanctioned government in Pyongyang. They have functioned as vehicles for the laundering of Pyongyang’s famed “super notes,” high-quality forgeries of U.S. $100 bills, as well as illegal narcotics.

The embassy in Malaysia was no exception. It was long suspected for both illicit business activity and money laundering. The embassy assisted in the marketing of North Korean military communications equipment, among other activities. But most important, the embassy was tied to the procurement of communications and computer equipment for Pyongyang.”

14. Fact check: Did Kim Jong Un call Joe Biden a thug during a speech?

Newsweek · by Soo Kim · March 23, 2021

15. The North Korean-Syrian Partnership: Bright Prospects Ahead

38 North · Samuel Ramani · March 23, 2021

There is still a pretty large axis of evil.

------------

“The fundamental reason for human rights being trampled in North Korea lies in the ‘Dear Leader Absolutism’ dictatorship.  There can be no human rights for the people in North Korea where the greatest morality and absolute law is giving one’s mind and body to the Dear Leader; and living as a slave who obeys completely and unconditionally the Dear Leader - it is the only life permitted the North Korean People.”

- Hwang Jang Yop (father of north Korean Juche ideology), 2 DEC 99

"We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions."

-2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance 

"Nothing contributes so much to tranquilize the mind as a steady purpose--a point on which the soul may fix its intellectual eye."

- Mary Wollstonecraft Shelley, in "Frankenstein" (1818)

A joint effort from the Empirical Studies of Conflict Project at Princeton University and the Modern War Institute at West Point and a continuation of the great work that's already been done on the Irregular Warfare Podcast

https://mwi.usma.edu/introducing-the-irregular-warfare-initiative/

"IWI is designed to support the community of irregular warfare professionals, to include military and interagency practitioners, scholarly researchers, and policymakers, by providing a space for accessible, practically grounded discussions of irregular warfare policy and strategy."

"IWI’s goal is to serve as a focal point for bringing together IW professionals from across the diplomatic, informational, military, and economic elements of the national security community with policy-focused academic researchers. It will provide a forum for debate and discussion so that the community can appropriately archive and apply the hard-fought lessons of the past two decades of IW in Iraq, Afghanistan, and around the world, while also engaging with innovative ideas for applying these and emerging IW competencies in the competition and conflict realms the United States expects to see in the future. We can all hope this skill set will not be in great demand, but if history is any guide, we should prepare as if the new era of great power competition will indeed require it."

"IWI will support three pillars of engagement. The first pillar will be IW-focused content, which will include both the Irregular Warfare Podcast and written content from contributors across the community of IW practitioners and researchers. The second pillar will take the form of interactive engagements, to include an annual conference focused on interdisciplinary collaboration. The final pillar will include an annual fellows program, providing the opportunity for a select number of professionals to engage in substantive examination of some of the most pressing IW challenges of the day. Through these vehicles, IWI intends to facilitate dialogue, provide access to new ideas, and support innovative approaches to addressing the contemporary strategic security environment."