A roundup of stories related to the special operations community of interest
https://sof.news/update/20210412/
Topics Include:
-International SOF in action (Canada, UK, Denmark)
-Counter threat finance applied to GPC
-Information Operations
-Updates and analysis on ongoing conflicts
-Upcoming events
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Hybrid warfare, pandemic style
2. Inside the Fight for the Future of The Wall Street Journal
3. CCP Adviser Outlines Detailed Plan to Defeat US, Including Manipulating Elections
4. How a growing fight against a little-known ISIS affiliate pulled in US Green Berets and foreign mercenaries
5. Pentagon Launches Post-Insurrection Extremism Review
6. US intelligence report warns of increased offensive cyber, disinformation around the world
7. Lt. Col. Kenneth Dwyer throws out first pitch at Carlisle game to his son in ‘continuation of the story’ of recovery
8. ‘Clear the Capitol,’ Pence pleaded, timeline of riot shows
9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Phone Call With Philippines Secretary
10. Lorenzana, US defense chief discuss VFA and West Philippine Sea
11. Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds
12. The New Nuances of the Nuclear Export Market
13. UK to Deploy Carrier to Indo-Pacific Region
14. How an Ohio bartender’s patriotism was warped by social media and a devotion to Trump, ending in conspiracy charges from the Capitol riots
1. Hybrid warfare, pandemic style
dailytimes.com.pk · by Ikram Sehgal · April 9, 2021
A view from Pakistan.
Excerpts: “This new form of warfare, avoiding a clear differentiation between war and peace, soldiers and civilians, is practiced by all sides of the different divides
...
and strategies, to include the employment of irregular military and paramilitary forces like guerrillas, paramilitaries, etc. Islamic State, Hamas and Hizbullah use terrorist acts as a means. Use of non-violent means by civilian institutions include psychological assaults using ethnic, religious or national vulnerabilities, provocateurs operating behind enemy lines, economic assaults through sanctions, boycotts and punitive tariffs so as to weaken the enemy economy, cyber assaults at elections and referendums, use of big data for manipulation of referendums like Brexit and the US elections and a vast selection of propaganda warfare via electronic and social media, TV channels and publications. Diplomacy is as much involved into this new type of warfare as are fake news. With religious elements militating against vaccinations of any kind, all sorts of reasons are being aired not to take the jab.
The Russian military understanding of it as a Western ploy against the new Russia-China axis and use Hybrid Warfare to prevent implementation of Eurasian concept and Russia‘s return as a global power. Sun Tzu more than two thousand years ago wrote “Know your enemy and know yourself and you can fight a hundred battles without disaster”
In that sense the pandemic and the fight against it is going to re-enforce the new global power relations that have come up during the last twenty years. In anticipation of the 21stcentury we were thinking that this might be the century of peace and the end of so many wars, so far it has become the century of shifting centers of development from the former West (US and Europe) to Asia and even Eurasia – even if Europe prefers to ignore this for the time being. And this shifting of power relations is not going smoothly; old and new local conflicts are pushed into wars: Ukraine, Syria, Yemen, Nagorno Karabakh and others. Vaccination has become something as a new tool of hybrid warfare in this. The process of change is enduring as the pandemic has shown and the new alliances will strengthen, but it certainly will take time.
2. Inside the Fight for the Future of The Wall Street Journal
The New York Times · by Edmund Lee · April 10, 2021
The New York Times reports on the Wall Street Journal.
We all need to be concerned about the future of the entire Fourth Estate.
Excerpts: “One goal put forth by The Content Review seemed more attainable to many inside the paper than conjuring millions of new subscribers overnight: a greater effort to appeal to readers of color. In a meeting between the strategy team and high-level editors, Ms. Story spoke about trying to track the racial diversity of people quoted in Journal coverage. Most of those gathered for the discussion were white.
Everyone at the meeting said they agreed that The Journal should include more diverse voices. But how? Should they survey subjects about their background? A senior editor expressed concern about such a tack, according to two people who were briefed on the event, saying he was worried the paper might be sued if it came out that its reporters were passing over white people to quote Black people. (The company disputes the characterization of the meeting.)
Such comments illustrate how difficult it will be rewiring the staff to more modern methods of news gathering.
In a Feb. 22 memo to the staff, Mr. Murray endorsed including a wider variety of people in The Journal’s coverage, pledging to “properly capture the diversity of our society and speak to as wide an audience as possible.”
Mr. Latour has also been talking about the need for change. In a series of companywide meetings that started last summer, he emphasized the importance of The Journal’s digital transformation, but repeated a phrase that many took to mean he wanted a continued focus on business leaders and Wall Street elites. “We need to be digging into the brand,” he said, according to several staff members.
Mr. Latour never asked for a copy of The Content Review, according to two people familiar with the matter. It’s still unclear if he’s read it.
If he has, he would know that one key message contradicts the very approach he’s favoring: “We can’t think we’ve got a comfy base of digital subscribers who will be satisfied if we just keep doing what we’re doing.”
3. CCP Adviser Outlines Detailed Plan to Defeat US, Including Manipulating Elections
theepochtimes.com · by Nicole Hao · March 26, 2021
This is from the Epoch Times so we must take it with a grain of salt.
Excerpts: “Jin Canrong, a professor and associate dean of the School of International Studies at Beijing’s Renmin University of China, explained the plan in a July 2016 speech on “Sino–U.S. Strategic Philosophy.” The speech, recently uncovered by The Epoch Times, was given over two full days at Southern Club Hotel Business Class in south China’s Guangzhou city.
“We want to be the world leader,” Jin said, explaining Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s desire for a “national rejuvenation” of the country.
Dubbed “teacher of the state” by Chinese netizens, Jin is a prominent scholar known for his fiery anti-U.S. rhetoric. He’s an adviser to several CCP organizations, including two powerful bodies, the Organization Department and the United Front Work Department, although it’s unclear how close he is to Xi.
Jin was also a visiting professor at the Gerald Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan, in 2003 and 2007.
4. How a growing fight against a little-known ISIS affiliate pulled in US Green Berets and foreign mercenaries
Business Insider · by J.W. Sotak
Excerpts: “For its efforts, ISIS can extend its reach to a new region — where ungoverned spaces further facilitate that expansion — and access valuable resources, profits from which can be redistributed to other needy franchises.
That violence and the stakes involved are why US Special Operations Command has tripled its forces in the province.
The response likely reflects a mix of political and commercial interests. Washington may see continued chaos in Cabo Delgado as a threat that will surely benefit ISIS and its operations in Africa. US firms may also be looking to secure access to the precious natural gas that foreign companies are already jockeying to exploit.
Mozambique is now on the list of African nations where the US is deeply involved. The fighting in Cabo Delgado is far from over, but what remains uncertain is whether the elite Green Berets and deadly drones they wield will be stymied like the Russians and South Africans before them.
5. Pentagon Launches Post-Insurrection Extremism Review
defenseone.com · by Ben Watson
Excerpts: “Though the numbers of extremism offenders are believed to be “small,” Kirby said the service secretaries, all of whom are Trump administration holdovers, have shared anecdotes from their ranks which “reinforced” with Austin “that this is a problem.”
Other, more tangible changes are afoot. Service secretaries of the military branches will create a way for outgoing troops to self-report being targeted or having “any potential contact with an extremist group,” though exactly how this will take shape is unclear. Other new changes involve “updat[ing] and standardiz[ing] screening questionnaires” for new recruits across every service, including to make clear that lying to recruiters could result in “punitive action for fraudulent enlistment.”
West Point and an Iraq war veteran Bishop Garrison will lead the working group’s efforts, which are to begin around next week. Bishop also serves as Austin’s Senior Advisor on Human Capital and Diversity, Equity and Inclusion. The first progress reports — along with “mid-term and long-term recommendations” are expected by mid-July.
“This is not about being the thought police… it’s about the behavior and the conduct that is inspired by or influenced by this kind of ideology,” Kirby said.
6. US intelligence report warns of increased offensive cyber, disinformation around the world
cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · April 8, 2021
Excerpts: “Global privacy paradigms also are on the verge of shifting, the report warns.
“Privacy and anonymity may effectively disappear by choice or government mandate, as all aspects of personal and professional lives are tracked by global networks,” the report states.
As more governments continue to gain control of surveillance capabilities, privacy will continue to erode, the report suggests.
“Authoritarian governments are likely to exploit increased data to monitor and even control their populations,” the assessment notes, going on to predict they “will exercise unprecedented surveillance capabilities to enforce laws and provide security while tracking and de-anonymizing citizens and potentially targeting individuals.”
Governments have already begun availing themselves of commercially available spying technology to target vulnerable individuals, according to researchers. Governments such as Morocco, Saudi Arabia and India are accused of using spyware to target dissidents, journalists and other vulnerable people.
7. Lt. Col. Kenneth Dwyer throws out first pitch at Carlisle game to his son in ‘continuation of the story’ of recovery
pennlive.com · by Edward Sutelan · April 10, 2021
An American who should inspire us.
8. ‘Clear the Capitol,’ Pence pleaded, timeline of riot shows
AP · by Lisa Mascaro, Ben Fox, and Lolita C. Baldor· April 10, 2021
A lot to parse here. This is quite a story. Some interesting timeline analysis. Anyone who has had to deal with crisis action will recognize the complexity of the challenges here. Others will armchair quarterback forever.
9. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Phone Call With Philippines Secretary
defense.gov · April 10, 2021
10. Lorenzana, US defense chief discuss VFA and West Philippine Sea
philstar.com · by Franco Luna
An odd request on the vaccine issue.
11. Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds
SCMP · by Stephen Chen · April 11, 2021
A "super power grid."
Northeast Asia power grid could slash cost of green energy, study finds:
12. The New Nuances of the Nuclear Export Market
The National Interest · by Eunjung Lim · April 10, 2021
Conclusion: Working together, the United States and South Korea can build a brighter and safer future for nuclear power and for themselves.
13. UK to Deploy Carrier to Indo-Pacific Region
14. How an Ohio bartender’s patriotism was warped by social media and a devotion to Trump, ending in conspiracy charges from the Capitol riots
cleveland.com · by John Caniglia · April 11, 2021
A cautionary tale.
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"In the moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing to do. The worst thing you can do is nothing."
- Theodore Roosevelt
"It is high time the ideal of success should be replaced with the ideal of service."
- Albert Einstein
"True leadership is the art of changing a group from what it is into what it ought to be."
- Virginia Allan
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Bolton: North Korea Unlikely to Denuclearize Under Kim
2. Google sees new trick in renewed North Korea cyber attacks
3. COVAX Vaccine Supply to N. Korea before May Unlikely
4. N. Korea marks 9th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's leadership with call for loyalty
5. S. Korea, U.S. authorities assess N.K. has completed building new 3,000-ton submarine: sources
6. Cheong Wa Dae denies report U.S. requested S. Korea join Quad
7. AstraZeneca vaccine rollout resumed, those under 30 excluded (South Korea)
8. A revolt by the young (South Korea Election)
9. Moon to reshuffle Cabinet as early as this week
10. North Korea's SLBM threat looms large
11. First Comes Iran, Then Comes North Korea
12. Beware the rise of state-sponsored cyberattacks
13. Kim warns North Korea faces famine horror similar to 90s crisis that left 'millions' dead
14. Intelligence Sources: North Korea Nears Completion of New Submarine
1. Bolton: North Korea Unlikely to Denuclearize Under Kim
voanews.com · by William Gallo
Not hyperbole: “Bolton said Pyongyang’s capacity to proliferate its nuclear weaponry is one of the imminent threats Washington must face.
“We do know this,” Bolton said. “If Iran made a wire transfer of a substantial amount of money to North Korea, they could have a North Korean nuclear warhead within a matter of days and so could anybody else with the same financial assets."
2. Google sees new trick in renewed North Korea cyber attacks
foxnews.com · by Brooke Crothers
Excerpts: “The blog contained analysis of publicly disclosed cyber vulnerabilities and included "guest" posts from "unwitting legitimate security researchers," in order to "build additional credibility with other security researchers," Google said.
After reaching out to targeted researchers, the cyber actors offered to collaborate on cybersecurity research, then provided a Microsoft program, Visual Studio Project, that contained malicious code, Google said.
Google also observed several cases where targeted researchers unwittingly installed malware after visiting a blog. "Shortly thereafter, a malicious service was installed on the researcher’s system," according to Google.
Even sophisticated researchers can fall for ploys by cyber criminals, Brian Martin, vice president of vulnerability Intelligence at Risk Based Security, told Fox News.
3. COVAX Vaccine Supply to N. Korea before May Unlikely
world.kbs.co.kr · April 11, 2021
4. N. Korea marks 9th anniversary of Kim Jong-un's leadership with call for loyalty
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021
Even though every Korean in the north knows you do not survive or and certainly cannot thrive without demonstrating personal loyalty to Kim Jong-un and the regime must still call for loyalty. It is all the regime has: forced or fake loyalty.
5. S. Korea, U.S. authorities assess N.K. has completed building new 3,000-ton submarine: sources
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021
Excerpts: “"Both South Korea and U.S. intelligence authorities made the assessment that North Korea has already finished building the 3,000-ton submarine unveiled in July 2019," according to sources.
"The authorities assess that North Korea is reviewing the right timing to roll out the submarine for a strategic effect, including maximizing pressure against the United States," a source said.
The source added that the North could reveal the submarine at a launching ceremony and actually roll out an SLBM, such as the Pukguksong-3.
6. Cheong Wa Dae denies report U.S. requested S. Korea join Quad
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 11, 2021
I doubt we did. I believe South Korea knows full well our position and recommendation and there is no reason to make a request. Korea knows it has an open invitation because it is a like minded democracy that supports the rules-based international order. I think the diplomats and national security professionals in the administration know that South Korea has to make the decision without coercion (by the US - the PRC's action could cause a kind of reverse coercion). As much as we believe it is very much in South Korea's interests it is a conclusion South Korea leaders must reach on their own.
7. AstraZeneca vaccine rollout resumed, those under 30 excluded (South Korea)
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · April 11, 2021
8. A revolt by the young (South Korea Election)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Lee Jung-min
Interesting analysis of the recent election.
Excerpt: “That’s an astounding turnaround in Korea’s election history. In the parliamentary elections just a year ago, the young generation voted against the PPP citing its image as an old party of corruption. At the time, 56 percent of voters in their 20s — and 61 percent of those in their 30s — gave overwhelming support to the DP, while only 32 percent of the first group and 30 percent of the second group voted for the United Future Party, the predecessor of the PPP. The younger generation was an ally loyal to the liberal DP since the election of Park Won-soon as Seoul mayor in the 2011 by-election.
After the DP’s sweeping victory in the parliamentary elections last April following the presidential election in May 2017 and local elections in June 2018, however, schisms began to appear in the solid alliance between the 20-30 generation and the liberal party because of all the hypocrisy and arrogance of the DP despite it championed fairness and justice. A revolt by the young generation has spread like magma erupting from a volcano since then. Members of the young group started shifting to Oh’s bandwagon one after another. On April 4, three days before the mayoral by-elections, I went to a rally staged by Oh’s supporters who gathered around the rear gate of Children’s Grand Park in eastern Seoul to share their feelings about the DP and government.
9. Moon to reshuffle Cabinet as early as this week
The Korea Times · April 11, 2021
Suffer an election defeat and fire your unelected cabinet members.
10. North Korea's SLBM threat looms large
The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · April 11, 2021
As a reminder the response to this threat is NOT for South Korea to build a nuclear powered submarine.
11. First Comes Iran, Then Comes North Korea
ozy.com · by John McLaughlin · April 8, 2021
Kim Jong-un might like being 2d priority. He could react to this.
Conclusion: “The bottom line: The Biden team is right to give first priority to Iran, because it can still be deterred from the nuclear path that North Korea has already taken. But when the administration turns to North Korea later, it will have to include among its goals measures to guard against Pyongyang diluting or undoing whatever progress it may have made with Iran.”
12. Beware the rise of state-sponsored cyberattacks
The Spectator · by Arieh Kovler · April 8, 2021
Especially from north Korea!
13. Kim warns North Korea faces famine horror similar to 90s crisis that left 'millions' dead
Express · by John Varga · April 11, 2021
Just take a step back from the immediate crisis in the north and think about how the Korean people in the north have suffered so much and yet have survived through decades of extreme hardship. The resilience of the Korean people in the north is a testament to the strength of human beings and their will to survive. We should have great respect for the people.
14. Intelligence Sources: North Korea Nears Completion of New Submarine
19fortyfive.com · by ByHarry Kazianis · April 11, 2021
------------
"In the moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing to do. The worst thing you can do is nothing."
- Theodore Roosevelt
"It is high time the ideal of success should be replaced with the ideal of service."
- Albert Einstein
"True leadership is the art of changing a group from what it is into what it ought to be."
- Virginia Allan
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. China’s Techno-Authoritarianism Has Gone Global
2. A Tiny Particle’s Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics
3. Sens. Menendez, Risch unveil bipartisan bill to counter China
4. Commerce Adds Seven Chinese Supercomputing Entities to Entity List for their Support to China’s Military Modernization, and Other Destabilizing Efforts
5. Capitol Rioters Face the Consequences of Their Selfie Sabotage
6. Cost Imposition: The Key to Making Great Power Competition an Actionable Strategy
7. Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends
8. China’s Arrogance Is Uniting Its Rivals
9. China accuses US of 'human rights sins' to distract from its genocide and other human rights abuses
10. Inside secret Syria talks aimed at freeing American hostages
11. Peter Thiel Calls Bitcoin ‘a Chinese Financial Weapon’ at Virtual Roundtable
12. Fort Hood brigade commander relieved for bullying and poor judgment
13. E Pluribus Unum – A Rallying Cry for National Service
14. Naval Postgraduate School faces big budget cuts and possible reorganization.
15. GAO report sees U.S. military readiness slipping
16. Video - SOCPAC JTF 510 in the Philippines - GSOF | SOF News
17. Analysis: Al Qaeda continues to operate throughout Afghanistan
18. General Orders No. 35 - ARMY SPECIAL FORCES BRANCH
19. Rigorous CFIUS Reviews Will Continue Under Biden: How to Prepare
20. China is right not to cave to US-imposed post-WW2 global order
21. The Cold War Is Being Rebooted and Rebranded
22. Biden admin bristles as China accuses U.S. of 'intimidation' tactics, claims ownership of Taiwan
23. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US
24. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US
1. China’s Techno-Authoritarianism Has Gone Global
Foreign Affairs · by Maya Wang · April 8, 2021
Conclusion: "The U.S.-Chinese competition over technology could shape the future. If Washington is serious about protecting privacy and promoting human rights, it should seize the initiative from China by upholding these standards for everyone who uses U.S. technology, domestically and around the world."
2. A Tiny Particle’s Wobble Could Upend the Known Laws of Physics
The New York Times · by Dennis Overbye · April 8, 2021
Excerpts: “There was pride that they had managed to perform such a hard measurement, and then joy that the results matched those from Brookhaven.
“This seems to be a confirmation that Brookhaven was not a fluke,” Dr. Carena, the theorist, said. “They have a real chance to break the Standard Model.”
Physicists say the anomaly has given them ideas for how to search for new particles. Among them are particles lightweight enough to be within the grasp of the Large Hadron Collider or its projected successor. Indeed, some might already have been recorded but are so rare that they have not yet emerged from the blizzard of data recorded by the instrument.
Another candidate called the Z-prime could shed light on some puzzles in the Big Bang, according to Gordan Krnjaic, a cosmologist at Fermilab.
The g-2 result, he said in an email, could set the agenda for physics in the next generation.
“If the central value of the observed anomaly stays fixed, the new particles can’t hide forever,” he said. “We will learn a great deal more about fundamental physics going forward.”
3. Sens. Menendez, Risch unveil bipartisan bill to counter China
Axios · by Orion Rummler
4. Commerce Adds Seven Chinese Supercomputing Entities to Entity List for their Support to China’s Military Modernization, and Other Destabilizing Efforts
Commerce Department · April 8, 2021
5. Capitol Rioters Face the Consequences of Their Selfie Sabotage
The New York Times · by Elizabeth Williamson · April 6, 2021
These organizations will need to re-evaluate their operational security procedures.
6. Cost Imposition: The Key to Making Great Power Competition an Actionable Strategy
mwi.usma.edu · by Doowan Lee · April 8, 2021
Excerpts: “To overcome these shortcomings, I offer a practitioner’s definition to concretize how we can strategize and operationalize the concept:
Great power competition is a state of antagonistic relations indicated by time, space, and material progression toward respective objective achievement between two or more great powers.
In this formulation, I posit that the main yardstick of great power competition is the temporally variable extent of a state’s competitive edge. The key is how to execute foreign policy in such a way as to create a favorable relative ratio of objective achievement over time.
...
In the end, this article hopes to begin a rigorous and feasible conversation for national security practitioners and planners to concretize the concept of great power competition. I offer three recommendations. First, we need to understand the CCP’s strategic priorities and policies better. Debates about the CCP’s strategic interests are driven by the most conspicuous issues. US policymakers should intimately appreciate the CCP’s grand strategy. More importantly we need to understand potential local and regional friction points to such objectives. Imposing disproportionate costs in short order will require taking advantage of emerging grievances against the CCP outside the mainland. Second, the United States should focus on countries where influence is tightly contested and the CCP is actively expanding its economic and military footprints. We see increasing local resistance to the CCP’s expansionist projects. Third, the United States should develop data-driven analytic processes to observe, measure, and track how different activities are in fact correlated with effective cost imposition in time, space, and material. Without such a system, it would be nearly impossible to optimize how we allocate our resources to outcompete the CCP. It is time that the United States established a means of measuring return of investment on great power competition.
With the Chinese economy likely to overtake that of the United States in the next seven years, the United States does not have a lot of time to learn how to practice great power competition effectively. The only way to sustain or expand American global leadership is to incorporate disproportionate cost imposition in every aspect of US foreign policy execution.”
7. Office of the Director of National Intelligence - Global Trends
dni.gov · by ODNI - NIC
You can access each section of the report at this link at the table of contents on the left side of the page.
Some new terminology and concepts to learn.
Five trends:
Five themes appear throughout this report and underpin this overall thesis:
8. China’s Arrogance Is Uniting Its Rivals
Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · April 8, 2021
In any other time Xi's views and assessment of America might create some unity against an external threat but in the current tribal divide in the US I fear we will continue our damaging and dangerous infighting.
Excerpts: ”Xi doesn’t think much of America right now. In speeches, he has said that “the world is going through changes seen once in a century” as China rises and the U.S. falters. In a meeting with Joe Biden administration officials in Alaska last month, his diplomats ridiculed the idea that a divided, distracted America could speak to Beijing from a “position of strength.”
A country that has suffered more than 550,000 deaths from Covid-19, that saw its capitol sacked by its own citizens, and that spent four years under President Donald Trump lashing out at the international system, is in deep trouble, Chinese propaganda organs argue. Why shouldn’t Beijing push for advantage in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and many other fronts at once?
Conclusion: “Paradoxically, that’s not entirely good news for the U.S.: This realization could simply lead Xi to act more aggressively to reap the international gains he seeks — starting, perhaps, with forcible reunification with Taiwan.
This, unfortunately, is also a historical pattern. As Michael Beckley and I have written, revisionist powers become most aggressive when their growth slows, their strategic enmities multiply, and they discover that they have only a short period of time to achieve their goals. Imperial Germany fell into this trap before World War I, Imperial Japan did likewise before World War II, and China may be following the same trajectory today.
The scary reality of U.S.-China relations is that we may soon enter a period of even higher tensions. Overconfident autocrats who think the world is moving in their direction can be very dangerous. Desperate autocrats who suddenly realize that their window is closing can be more dangerous still.
9. China accuses US of 'human rights sins' to distract from its genocide and other human rights abuses
americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · April 8, 2021
Note our five "sins:"
Sin No.1:#Colonialism.
Sin No.2:#Racism.
Sin No.3: Exporting turmoil.
Sin No.4:Interventionism.
Sin No.5: Double standards.
10. Inside secret Syria talks aimed at freeing American hostages
spectrumlocalnews.com · by Associated Press Washington, D.C.
Excerpt: “My assumption is he’s alive and he’s waiting for me to come and get him," said Roger Carstens, a former Army Special Forces officer who attended the meeting with Patel in his capacity as U.S. special presidential envoy for hostage affairs under Trump. He was kept in the position by Biden.
“My job,” he added, "is to get Austin Tice back.”
11. Peter Thiel Calls Bitcoin ‘a Chinese Financial Weapon’ at Virtual Roundtable
Excerpts: “Thiel, the venture capitalist and conservative political donor, urged the U.S. government to consider tighter regulations on cryptocurrencies in an appearance on Tuesday. The statements seemed to represent a change of heart for Thiel, who is a major investor in virtual currency ventures as well as in cryptocurriences themselves.
“I do wonder whether at this point, Bitcoin should also be thought [of] in part as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S.,” Thiel said during an appearance at a virtual event held for members of the Richard Nixon Foundation. “It threatens fiat money, but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar.” He added: “[If] China’s long Bitcoin, perhaps from a geopolitical perspective, the U.S. should be asking some tougher questions about exactly how that works.”
12. Fort Hood brigade commander relieved for bullying and poor judgment
armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 8, 2021
I cannot recall a relief that specifically uses the term bullying before (although I am sure many have been relieved for bullying though it is usually couched in loss of trust and confidence or due to poor command climate).
13. E Pluribus Unum – A Rallying Cry for National Service
realcleardefense.com · by Steve Blank
Steve Blank definitely is provoking from thought. Hacking for defense is a very good program. I saw it in action at Georgetown under the guidance of Chris Taylor who brought it from Stanford.
14. Naval Postgraduate School faces big budget cuts and possible reorganization.
montereycountyweekly.com · by Pam Marino
Sure - let's cut education in times of budget austerity.
Do not forget General Schoomaker's adage - "train for certainty, educate for uncertainty."
As an aside since the retirement and then passing of Ike Skelton there is no congressional champion for professional military education.
15. GAO report sees U.S. military readiness slipping
washingtontimes.com · by Mike Glenn
Excerpts: “Every warfighting domain … is now contested as potential adversaries, most notably China and Russia, have developed and enhanced their own capabilities,” according to the report. “The GAO found that reported domain readiness did not meet readiness recovery goals identified by the military services.”
The Pentagon defines “readiness” as the ability of U.S. military forces to fight and meet the demands of assigned missions. The GAO investigators reviewed readiness recovery plans from the Pentagon and the individual military services for fighting on land, sea, in the air, in outer space and even in cyberspace. A global mission and lengthy deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere have taken their toll, the GAO reported.
“We found that the military services had reported persistently low readiness levels, which they attributed to emerging and continued demands on their forces, reduced force structure and increased frequency and length of deployment,” the authors wrote.
16. Video - SOCPAC JTF 510 in the Philippines - GSOF | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · April 9, 2021
A very interesting video with Lt Gen Wurster and LTG Fridovich discussing our operations in the Philippines.
17. Analysis: Al Qaeda continues to operate throughout Afghanistan
longwarjournal.org · by Bill Roggio · April 8, 2021
Excerpt: :FDD’s Long War Journal has tracked al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan for well over a decade, using press releases and public statements from the US military, NATO’s command in Afghanistan, and Afghan security services, as well as the jihadist groups’ own martyrdom statements. The data clearly shows that al Qaeda and allied terrorist groups have been operating on Afghan soil for the past two decades with the approval of the Taliban. These terrorist organizations often operate in areas controlled by the Taliban – and the jihadists killed in coalition or Afghan raids often die alongside members of the Afghan Taliban. Between 2007 and 2019, NATO, US, and Afghan forces, have launched at least 373 operations against these foreign terror groups in 27 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Many of the raids against Al Qaeda and its allies have gone unreported.”
18. General Orders No. 35 - ARMY SPECIAL FORCES BRANCH
34 years ago today Special Forces was established as an official branch of the US Army.
19. Rigorous CFIUS Reviews Will Continue Under Biden: How to Prepare
news.bloomberglaw.com · by Donald F. McGahn II, Schuyler J. Schouten, and Chad R. Mizelle
20. China is right not to cave to US-imposed post-WW2 global order
asiatimes.com · by Ken Moak · April 9, 2021
Wow. I have no words for this argument.
Excerpts: “The proceeds raised via QE were spent on bailing out businesses and banks deemed too big to fail, allowing them to continue operating. In this sense, the US was not practicing what it preached, strengthening the argument that it had set up “debt traps” as a way to prevent developing economies from developing.
A case in point is the US banning its technology firms from selling advanced chips to China, citing national-security reasons. The real motive, however, was to slow down if not kill Chinese technological progress. No country had ever complained about Chinese products posing a national-security threat until Trump decided to make it one, solely based on unproven or speculative evidence.
All said and done, China is right not to follow the US-imposed postwar world order. Indeed, it could even be argued that the communist country became what it is today because China defied US-style rules and values. For this reason, China will likely continue adhering to “socialism with Chinese characteristics” as its economic development and ideological architecture.
21. The Cold War Is Being Rebooted and Rebranded
The Nation · by William Astore · April 9, 2021
22. US Navy Conducts Patrol In Indian EEZ Without Consent, Announces It Publicly
thewire.in · by The Wire Staff
I hope there is a rest of the story to this.
23. Biden admin bristles as China accuses U.S. of 'intimidation' tactics, claims ownership of Taiwan
washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor
24. ‘Untapped weapon’: Philippine leaders warn China by touting defense treaty with US
Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · April 8, 2021
I am reminded of the little boy taunting the bully because he has a big brother he believes will come to his rescue.
Again, is this a place for miscalculation?
-----------
"Too many people learn about war with no inconvenience to themselves."
- Guy Sajer
The plan on paper was that the indirect actions were primary, and that direct action was only meant to buy space and time. But in practice, direct action came to rule the day.
-Admiral Eric Olson, former commander of US Special Operations Command, October 8, 2020
“The only way to fight the plague is with decency.”
- Camus, The Plague
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. U.S. still in final stage of 'careful' N. Korea policy: State Dept.
2. Top Priority: North Korean Human Rights in 2021 (HRNK)
3. Civil and Political Rights in the Republic of Korea: Implications for Human Rights on the Peninsula
4. North Korea Tells Citizens to Prepare for a Famine Worse than the 1990s
5. How young voters, once solid supporters of liberal causes, turned against Moon's party in by-elections
6. S. Korean PM to visit Iran next week amid lingering tension over frozen Tehran funds
7. <Inside N. Korea> Military Cuts (Part 3): Height standard for recruits is 142cm. Growing trend of avoiding enlistment.
8. Moon Ignores Voters' Slap in the Face
9. Iran releases Korean tanker and 14 crew
10. North Korea likely to stay more reclusive in face of UN sanctions
11. North Korean authorities transfer management of special road near Sinuiju to Ministry of State Security
12. North Korean authorities execute chairman of "Distance Education Act" commission
13. South Korea unveils prototype of KF-X fighter jet
14. US military donors line up to give South Korea some much-needed blood
15. Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: What Is North Korea Doing?
1. U.S. still in final stage of 'careful' N. Korea policy: State Dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 9, 2021
US foreign policy is going to be based on strong alliances and effective coordination and cooperation among alliance partners.
Excerpts: “He also emphasized the importance of working closely with U.S. allies and partners.
"We want to ensure that we have consulted broadly and widely and deeply with our partners and, of course, with our treaty allies," he told the daily press briefing.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan hosted his South Korean and Japanese counterparts in Washington last week to precisely discuss the outcome of his country's ongoing North Korea policy.
2. Top Priority: North Korean Human Rights in 2021 (HRNK)
Youtube The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
This is a must watch video. Spend 1 hour with these three brilliant Korean scholars and you will learn more about north and South Korea than reading a dozen books. Yes that sounds like hyperbole but the expertise and wisdom present among these three experts is unmatched by any other similar webinar conference.
3. Civil and Political Rights in the Republic of Korea: Implications for Human Rights on the Peninsula
This will be a very fascinating hearing on April 15. Note the witnesses.
4. North Korea Tells Citizens to Prepare for a Famine Worse than the 1990s
rfa.org · by Jieun Kim and Albert Hong
I am starting to get worried. We have been making the analysis for quite some time now. (though some of the skeptics are cited in the article). But for Kim and the regime to state it so openly and bluntly I fear it could come to pass. Maybe this is. Kim's way to mobilize the country to prevent it from happening but only Kim has the power to prevent it - he could sufficiently solve the problems by making the right policy decisions. He is responsible for the mess he has made but he is the only one with the power to clean it up.
I hope we have the right focus on indications and warnings (nuclear weapons or an attack tonight are not the only threats). And do we have our contingency plans up to date and are we at least conducting the table top exercises to ensure all commands have a sufficient understanding of the contingencies?
Excerpts: “The attendees were furious that they were being asked to be patient and to consent to sacrifices without specific details on how this would get them through the tough situation, according to the second source.
“So now the people are all saying that a second Arduous March is imminent. On the surface, the authorities are saying that everything will be fine once the five-year economic development plan laid out in the party congress is completed,” said the second source.
“But since they are not hiding the fact that the current economic crisis could lead to a situation more difficult than the Arduous March of the 1990s, the anxiety of the people is increasing,”
International observers were skeptical that the current situation in North Korea was anything at all like the famine of the 1990’s.
5. How young voters, once solid supporters of liberal causes, turned against Moon's party in by-elections
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · April 9, 2021
Excerpts: “It should be made clear that the shift in preference of young voters this time is widely interpreted as the generation punishing the ruling party for mishandling the governing of the nation and economy, as opposed to reflecting a phenomenon of growing affinity among young people toward the conservative party.
"The PPP's victory, despite the party not having done much, is a sign that the DP has made huge errors. But this administration and the ruling party is reluctant to own up to its mistakes, having the tendency to blame the press, the prosecution service and young voters," Kim In-gyun, a 29-year-old worker in Seoul, said.
6. S. Korean PM to visit Iran next week amid lingering tension over frozen Tehran funds
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · April 9, 2021
Excerpt: "Chung's visit to Iran from Sunday to Tuesday -- the first such trip by a South Korean premier in 44 years -- follows Tehran's release this week of a Korean oil tanker and its captain about three months after its seizure over alleged oil pollution."
7. <Inside N. Korea> Military Cuts (Part 3): Height standard for recruits is 142cm. Growing trend of avoiding enlistment.
That is 55.9 inches or 4 feet 7.9. inches.
I wonder if north Korean marching cadences include "standing tall and looking good."
Excerpt: A: “The passing height for boys is 142 cm. There is no standard for weight, and unless they are really skinny and frail, they are allowed to enlist.”
8. Moon Ignores Voters' Slap in the Face
ABM - anyone but Moon.
Excerpts: “The ruling party was only able to win elections because the opposition was in hopeless disarray. But this time voters had enough. "Anyone but Moon," could have been their desperate slogan. They cast their votes to express their anger at the president, and the MP would have lost no matter which candidates it fielded.
And still Moon shows no sign of relenting. He hid behind the curtains and let his chief secretary read two sentences on his behalf. Any decent person would at least have the guts to stand in front of the people and bow down to the ground.
9. Iran releases Korean tanker and 14 crew
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja
10. North Korea likely to stay more reclusive in face of UN sanctions
The Korea Times · April 9, 2021
If you wanted to make an analysis with as close to 100% certainty as possible it would be that north Korea will stay more reclusive.
11. North Korean authorities transfer management of special road near Sinuiju to Ministry of State Security
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 9, 2021
Excerpt: "The road has been put under heightened security because it is located near Uiju Airport, which is guarded by a unit under the country’s Air and Anti-Air Force. Additionally, because the September Iron and Steel Complex also serves as an arms factory, North Korean authorities keep the road under special management in order to prevent military secrets from leaking out of the facility."
12. North Korean authorities execute chairman of "Distance Education Act" commission
dailynk.com · April 9, 2021
Note the power of the Organization and Guidance Department.
How effective can distance education be in a country without sufficient networking capability?
Excerpts: “Interestingly, Ri Guk Chol, the president of Kim Il Sung University, is the chairman of the reorganized commission. Ri’s appointment could indicate the government’s determination to enforce the Distance Education Act by raising the prominence of the commission.
After the authorities reorganized the commission, Kim Jong Un addressed the matter in a “handwritten remark,” reportedly writing that “Just as I became the commander in the battle for forest restoration, I will also become the commander of a farsighted grand policy for national education.”
According to the source, the “handwritten remark” – interpreted as a sign that Kim Jong Un will fully support and assist the implementation of the Distance Education Act – has reportedly been distributed to all members of the commission.”
13. South Korea unveils prototype of KF-X fighter jet
Reuters · by Josh Smith · April 9, 2021
14. US military donors line up to give South Korea some much-needed blood
Stars and Stripes · by Matthew Keller · April 7, 2021
15. Yongbyon Nuclear Facility: What Is North Korea Doing?
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 8, 2021
--------------
"Too many people learn about war with no inconvenience to themselves."
- Guy Sajer
The plan on paper was that the indirect actions were primary, and that direct action was only meant to buy space and time. But in practice, direct action came to rule the day.
-Admiral Eric Olson, former commander of US Special Operations Command, October 8, 2020
“The only way to fight the plague is with decency.”
- Camus, The Plague
An open source look at a non-state actor's attempts to counter the advantages of modern air forces
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-islamic-states-desperate-attempts.html
Article: https://www.queensu.ca/kcis/kcis-insights/insights-1-3
The Politics of Special Forces Podcast: https://www.queensu.ca/kcis/podcasts
A roundup of news stories related to the special operations community of interest
https://sof.news/update/20210405/
Topics Include:
-AFSOC's recent Emerald Warrior Exercise
-Training between Indian and US SOF
-SOF/CIA operational cooperation
-PRC and Russian information warfare
-Various global hotspots
-Plus upcoming events
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Pentagon to study land mine rules that Biden promised to reverse
2. Biden Backs Taiwan, but Some Call for a Clearer Warning to China
3. Before becoming a terrorist leader, ISIS chief was a prison informer in Iraq for U.S., records show
4. Experts Torn on Proper Role of National Cyber Director
5. NSA About To Release Unclassified 5G Security Guidance
6. Destroyer USS John McCain Transits Taiwan Strait as Chinese Carrier Strike Group Drills Nearby
7. Service Chiefs Versus Combatant Commanders
8. Sharpening the Blunt Tool: Why Deterrence Needs an Update in the Next U.S. National Security Strategy
9. To Counter Beijing, Send In the Coast Guard
10. The Defense Department isn’t meeting its readiness goals, report finds
11. ‘If Girl Scouts could survive, why not Marines?’ PETA to protest over ‘Cobra Gold bloodlust’
12. China’s Greenland Ambitions Run Into Local Politics, U.S. Influence
13. White House Releasing Topline Budget Numbers Friday
14. Why Is It So Tough to Withdraw from Afghanistan?
15. Imperial Policing Redux: The Folly of Staying the Course in Afghanistan
16. Robin Shepherd In The Hill Times: Follow The Fab Four Against Beijing's Bullying
17. Taiwan vows to 'defend itself to the very last day' against China
18. Chinese armed attacks in West PH Sea to ‘trigger US obligations’ in defense treaty – official
19. OSS Society: General Norton Schwartz talks with World War II B-24 Liberator aviator John Billings about his new memoir, "Special Duties Pilot."
1. Pentagon to study land mine rules that Biden promised to reverse
washingtontimes.com · by Mike Glenn
I made some provocative comments in the article.
2. Biden Backs Taiwan, but Some Call for a Clearer Warning to China
The New York Times · by Michael Crowley · April 8, 2021
Excerpt: “The debate reflects a core foreign policy challenge seizing the Biden administration as it devises its wider Asia strategy. At the White House, the State Department and the Pentagon, which is reviewing its military posture in Asia, officials are re-evaluating core tenets of American strategy for a new and more dangerous phase of competition with China.
American officials warn that China is growing more capable of invading the island democracy of nearly 24 million people, situated about 100 miles off the coast of mainland China, whose status has obsessed Beijing since Chinese nationalists retreated and formed a government there after the country’s 1949 Communist revolution.
Last month, the military commander for the Indo-Pacific region, Adm. Philip S. Davidson, described what he sees as a risk that China could try to reclaim Taiwan by force within the next six years.
The United States has long avoided saying how it would respond to such an attack. While Washington supports Taiwan with diplomatic contacts, arms sales, firm language and even occasional military maneuvers, there are no guarantees. No statement, doctrine or security agreement compels the United States to come to Taiwan’s rescue. A 1979 congressional law states only that “any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means” would be of “grave concern to the United States.”
The result is known as “strategic ambiguity,” a careful balance intended both to avoid provoking Beijing or emboldening Taiwan into a formal declaration of independence that could lead to a Chinese invasion.
3. Before becoming a terrorist leader, ISIS chief was a prison informer in Iraq for U.S., records show
The Washington Post · by Joby Warrick · April 7, 2021
Should be useful for developing themes and messages for support influence operations. Seems like a lot of potential here. Kudos to West Point's CTC for publishing the reports.
4. Experts Torn on Proper Role of National Cyber Director
defenseone.com · by Mariam Baksh
We have to get this right. This is a critical national security issue.
5. NSA About To Release Unclassified 5G Security Guidance
breakingdefense.com · by Brad D. Williams
Conclusion: "Given the broad applications of 5G across the defense, public, and private sectors, the “stakes for securing this new technology could not be higher,” Noble said. 5G will “impact the way we defend our nation.”
6. Destroyer USS John McCain Transits Taiwan Strait as Chinese Carrier Strike Group Drills Nearby
news.usni.org · by Sam LaGrone · April 7, 2021
Excerpts: “The Liaoning strike group – the carrier and five escorts – had operated near Okinawa, sailing through the Miyako Strait on Saturday, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry.
On Sunday, the Theodore Roosevelt strike group entered the South China Sea. On Wednesday, USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) and the embarked Carrier Air Wing 11 exercised with the Royal Malaysian Air Force.
7. Service Chiefs Versus Combatant Commanders
realcleardefense.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen
Force provider versus operational commander. It is hard for the force provider to say "no" to the operational commander conducting operations. Who is the force provider to second guess the requirements of the commander in theater?
The unspoken question is whether our combatant command structure with regional combatant commands is still the right way to organize the military to support US national security? (A heretical question I know after Goldwater-Nichols)
We have the "tyranny of distance" (deploying to Asia), the "tyranny of proximity" (the distance of Seoul from the DMZ) and now the "tyranny of the now."
Excerpts: “Lawmakers identified the core consequences of inaction on these issues: “The ‘tyranny of the now’ is wearing out man and machine at too high a rate to ensure success both now and later.” As the members detailed, years of such unmitigated force requests that lack prioritization and tradeoffs have resulted in consistently high operational tempos across the services with obvious, negative outcomes. The National Commission on Military Aviation Safety, for example, found that a “relentless” optempo is “leading to unsafe practices and (is) driving experienced aviators and maintainers out” of service. Reducing the demands on the force is one part of the fix and key to halting the current downward spiral. The next step will be for Congress to provide consistent funding to regain lost ground.
This letter has continued a conversation that will continue throughout the year as Congress drafts the defense policy bill. The Pentagon’s response to the questions should be considered mandatory reading. Depending on the answers from the Pentagon, it may just be time for Congress to legislate action to better balance the here-and-now with winning the long-term competition. A series of sprints will not be enough to prevail in this competition marathon.
8. Sharpening the Blunt Tool: Why Deterrence Needs an Update in the Next U.S. National Security Strategy
thestrategybridge.org · by Kyle J. Wolfley · April 8, 2021
The author references Sir Lawrence Freedman. We must never forget his wise words: "Deterrence works. Until it doesn't."
9. To Counter Beijing, Send In the Coast Guard
WSJ · by Alexander B. Gray
We have not resourced the Coast Guard for this kind of mission. The Coast Guard has long been a "do more with less" organization. What Coast Guard missions will be divested to undertake this kind of role? Is it the best use of our coast Guard?
But is this "assumption" valid? Will this achieve the "ambiguity at sea" the author recommends? Will using the Coast Guard help ease confrontations at sea? How can it both ease confrontation and support deterrence? Can't the Chinese still read our intentions (just like we read their intentions through their use of their coast guard and militia ships and fishing vessels)? Maybe it will make us feel better using a non-gray hulled ship but will it really make a difference to the Chinese and ease confrontation?
As a quasimilitary service, its presence can help ease confrontations at sea while deterring Chinese aggression. The Coast Guard’s new Legend-class National Security Cutter is powerful enough to be the premier warship in most navies.
I would be for trying this if we first resource the Coast Guard properly or we divest it of a significant amount of its other responsibilities.
10. The Defense Department isn’t meeting its readiness goals, report finds
militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 7, 2021
The full 35 page GAO report can be downloaded here
The one page highlights of the report can be accessed here:
Although there are some reports on special operations listed in the references the main report does not conduct any analysis of the readiness of special operations forces. And there is no reference to the readiness of the military to conduct irregular warfare.
What "domain" do special operations and irregular warfare fall under?
But if you do not check on it or measure it or assess it, then it must not be important.
11. ‘If Girl Scouts could survive, why not Marines?’ PETA to protest over ‘Cobra Gold bloodlust’
marinecorpstimes.com · by Andrea Scott · April 7, 2021
Sigh...I guess PETA will want the Girl Scouts to replace the Marines to fight the next war. I do not know how anyone could take PETA seriously with this kind of "analysis." I think in the upcoming exercise the PAO guidance will likely be that they will try to minimize press coverage of survival training. Drinking snake blood is of course not a significant part of the exercise but is simply part of team building and cultural exchange. The press likes to report on these events because of the sensationalism.
12. China’s Greenland Ambitions Run Into Local Politics, U.S. Influence
WSJ · by Stacy Meichtry and Drew Hinshaw
Rare earth metal competition.
Excerpts: “China mines over 70% of the world’s rare earths and is responsible for 90% of the complex process to turn them into magnets, according to Adamas Intelligence, which provides research on minerals and metals. The mining project in Kvanefjeld, a mountainous area in Greenland known in Inuit as Kuannersuit, was expected to produce 10% of the world’s rare earths, according to Greenland Minerals, an Australia-based firm that holds the project’s exploratory license.
Shenghe, one of the world’s biggest producers of rare-earths materials, acquired a 12.5% stake in Greenland Minerals in 2016, making it the company’s largest shareholder. Since then, Shenghe’s stake has been diluted to 9%, but Greenland Minerals is relying on the Chinese firm to process any materials it extracts from Greenland, a technically challenging step that is key to the project’s viability.
The concession includes uranium deposits, which locals fear could be released into the area’s pristine natural landscape and farms. The project is also forecast to increase Greenland’s carbon-dioxide emissions by 45%.”
13. White House Releasing Topline Budget Numbers Friday
breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary
14. Why Is It So Tough to Withdraw from Afghanistan?
warontherocks.com · by Ryan Baker and Jonathan Schroden · April 8, 2021
Conclusion: “The U.S. military has the raw capacity to withdraw all remaining personnel from Afghanistan in just a couple of weeks. It is less clear that it can do so without abandoning a lot of expensive equipment, leaving its NATO allies to fend for themselves, pulling U.S. Transportation Command assets away from missions elsewhere in the world, and perhaps even exposing U.S. troops on the ground to significant risk by deprioritizing tactical considerations during the withdrawal. These are real costs and risks that are a large part of what makes getting out of Afghanistan on a short timeline — whether it be May 1 or a few months down the road — so hard. The “tactical reasons” Biden cited during his press conference are thus not ones of logistical capacity, strictly speaking. Rather, they are questions of how much he is willing to pay, and risk, to overcome the logistical difficulties and associated costs of a safe and orderly withdrawal. Given the president’s comments to date, it seems he prefers a timeline of several months to withdraw from Afghanistan, not several weeks.”
15. Imperial Policing Redux: The Folly of Staying the Course in Afghanistan
mwi.usma.edu · by Paul Poast · April 8, 2021
Conclusion: "In the end, imperial policing was a policy designed for the British to maintain empire on the cheap that proved neither cheap, nor effective, nor sustainable. History has demonstrated that empires must recognize when they are overextended if they want to retain their power and influence. Whether it takes form by conscious choice or accidental mission creep, imperial policing is neither a sound nor a credible policy for the United States to continue to emulate in Afghanistan—where efforts have likewise been expensive, ineffective, and unsustainable—if it hopes to avoid the fatal mistakes of empires past."
16. Robin Shepherd In The Hill Times: Follow The Fab Four Against Beijing's Bullying
halifaxtheforum.org · April 7, 2021
Hmmm... nice anecdote but it is much easier to stand up to injustice in the US than the PRC. But I agree with the sentiment even if the anecdote is not a perfect one:
Conclusion: “And anyone who thinks that it is only politicians that have a role to play in confronting injustice should recall an episode from the American south in 1964. In that year, on their first American tour, the Beatles were booked to play the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville, Fla. Shocked to discover their audience was to be divided along racial lines, they refused to perform unless the stadium was desegregated. It was a bold move. This was a critical juncture in the careers of working-class lads from Liverpool, fighting for a piece of the lucrative American music market. Despite indignant murmurings in the local press, they got their way. “I’d sooner lose our appearance money,” John Lennon said of the affair.
More than half a century later, we could do with leadership like that from our wealthy and privileged celebrities. They are not being asked to take a vow of poverty, or to stand in front of a Chinese tank. They just have to recognize their place on the scales of human justice, and act on it. If they won’t, remember that the contents of our pockets have weight, too. Our choices matter in this difficult and dangerous standoff with China. It’s time to make them count.”
17. Taiwan vows to 'defend itself to the very last day' against China
americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · April 7, 2021
Does this include mobilizing the population to resist? Can Taiwan develop a concept for resistance among the population that will be an asymmetric contribution to the defense of Taiwan through unconventional deterrence?
18. Chinese armed attacks in West PH Sea to ‘trigger US obligations’ in defense treaty – official
cnnphilippines.com · by CNN Philippines Staff
Again, is this where miscalculation could lead to conflict?
19. OSS Society: General Norton Schwartz talks with World War II B-24 Liberator aviator John Billings about his new memoir, "Special Duties Pilot."
--------------
"Glory is now a discredited word, and it will be difficult to re-establish it. It has been spoilt by a too close association with military grandeur; it has been confused with fame and ambition. But true glory is a private and discreet virtue, and is only realized in solitariness."
- Graham Greene (quoting Herbert Read), Ways of Escape, 1980
"...pessimism...can drive men on to do wonders."
- V.S. Naipaul, A bend in the River, 1979
"Communism is cholera and you cannot compromise with cholera."
- First President of South Korea, Syngman Rhee
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korean Conservatives Are on the Rise a Year Before Presidential Election
2. FDD | North Korean Human Rights Should Unite the U.S.-ROK Alliance, Not Divide It
3. General Officer Assignments - USAF (new SOCKOR Commander)
4. South Koreans See China as More Threat than Partner, But Not the Most Critical Threat Facing the Country
5. Election Rout Signals a Shift in South Korea’s Political Scene
6. Moon takes election rout as 'reprimand' from the public, Cheong Wa Dae says
7. Ruling party leaders resign en masse for election defeat
8. Opposition Must Not Forget Why Voters Supported It This Time
9. Military training important to protecting U.S. interest on Korean Peninsula: Pentagon
10. Challenges of Negotiating with North Korea
11. US prepared for diplomacy for denuclearization of North Korea: White House spokeswoman
12. Prospects for interim agreement (Korea)
13. N. Korea slams Japan for referring to East Sea as 'Sea of Japan'
14. North Korean Hackers Threatened Bithumb Exchange With a $16M Ransom Amid the 2017 Data Breach, Says Report – Security Bitcoin News
15. Gaps between market prices in different North Korean regions are growing
16. North Korean entity defeated in South's court in first trade lawsuit
17. S. Korea replaces Marine Corps chief
1. South Korean Conservatives Are on the Rise a Year Before Presidential Election
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong and Timothy W. Martin
Democracy in Korea is a live and well. I think even the conservatives were surprised by these results.
2. FDD | North Korean Human Rights Should Unite the U.S.-ROK Alliance, Not Divide It
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · April 7, 2021
An important essay from my colleague Mathew Ha.
3. General Officer Assignments - USAF (new SOCKOR Commander)
Someone should let the US Air Force know SOCKOR is no longer located at Camp Kim Yongsan. I hope someone gets the new commander to the right location at Camp Humphreys!
4. South Koreans See China as More Threat than Partner, But Not the Most Critical Threat Facing the Country
thechicagocouncil.org · by Public Opinion Survey · April 6, 2021
Key point: In South Korea, unfavorable views of China are now on par with views of North Korea and Japan, and 59 percent say South Korea and China are mostly rivals. Specifically, clear majorities think China is more of an economic and security threat than a partner. But neither China’s economic power nor its military power are considered the top critical threats facing the country. Instead, larger majorities cite low birth rates in South Korea and North Korea’s nuclear program.
5. Election Rout Signals a Shift in South Korea’s Political Scene
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · April 7, 2021
What will be the implications of this election for Korea foreign policy, north Korean strategy and the ROK/US alliance.
On the surface this election appears to be good for democracy in South Korea. Contrary to the fears and allegations of many, it does not appear the ruling party could control the outcome of the election.
6. Moon takes election rout as 'reprimand' from the public, Cheong Wa Dae says
en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 8, 2021
A snarky comment: The ruling party received a spanking.
7. Ruling party leaders resign en masse for election defeat
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · April 8, 2021
8. Opposition Must Not Forget Why Voters Supported It This Time
Vote against versus vote for.
Conclusion: The PPP now faces an uphill struggle proving itself worthy of that trust as the public watches its every move. It will face many attempts by the old guard to return to their old ways and feed their political greed. If it forgets what led to its destruction and to whom it owes its resurgence, it will quickly collapse again.
9. Military training important to protecting U.S. interest on Korean Peninsula: Pentagon
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 8, 2021
Training is more than important. It is critical. If we cannot train our combat forces and if our crews, pilots, etc cannot maintain their qualifications we cannot leave them on the peninsula.
10. Challenges of Negotiating with North Korea
stimson.org · by Jenny Town · April 7, 2021
We should keep in mind two things. First, Kim Jong-un has to want to negotiate. If he does come to the negotiating table we need to assess why he is doing so. We need to ensure we are not giving him a "win" meaning that he assesses that his long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy are working so that he will double down on them rather than negotiate with even modicum of sincerity.
But we cannot have talks for talks sake. north Korea must be shown that diplomacy is his. only option. But if we appease him and give him concessions then he will simply assess his strategy is working and he will continue to execute it.
Conclusion: "As North Korea resumes missile testing and other activities that start to raise tensions on the Korean Peninsula once again, the impulse may be to set aside diplomacy for the near term. However, it is also a clear reminder that the longer we settle for the status quo, the more limited our options become. While there may be both a preference and pressure for pursuing an all-or-nothing approach to denuclearization with North Korea, this policy is doomed to fail. Instead, a long-term, step-by-step approach that offers progress in each of the lines of effort established in the Singapore Joint Statement provides the best chance of actually starting down the denuclearization road and improving the security situation for the U.S. and its allies."
11. US prepared for diplomacy for denuclearization of North Korea: White House spokeswoman
The Korea Times · April 8, 2021
Splitting the difference or all encompassing? Denuclearization of the north and the entire Korean peninsula. We should stress the South already complied with the 1992 North-South Agreement on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. We should also stress the north's definition of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula includes an end to the ROK/US alliance removal of US troops and an end to extended deterrence. We should not support the regime's narrative but we should take every opportunity to expose it.
Excerpts: ”She said the U.S. remains committed to denuclearization of North Korea.
"We have a clear objective as it relates to North Korea, which is denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula," the spokeswoman said at a daily press briefing. "We are, of course, continuing to enforce sanctions. We are consulting with allies and partners. We are prepared to consider some form of diplomacy if it's going to lead us down the path toward denuclearization."
12. Prospects for interim agreement (Korea)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Green
As I have noted we must ensure we do not set the conditions so that Kim assesses his long con, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy are successful.
13. N. Korea slams Japan for referring to East Sea as 'Sea of Japan'
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 8, 2021
One of the few things Koreans are unified over - opposition to Japan.
14. North Korean Hackers Threatened Bithumb Exchange With a $16M Ransom Amid the 2017 Data Breach, Says Report – Security Bitcoin News
news.bitcoin.com · by Security · April 7, 2021
The Kim family regime's all purpose sword strikes again.
15. Gaps between market prices in different North Korean regions are growing
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · April 8, 2021
This is the problem: The North Korean authorities are expanding their control over markets at an accelerating pace. According to the source, “operating hours of official markets [have been reduced to] 2 PM to 6 PM.”
16. North Korean entity defeated in South's court in first trade lawsuit
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · April 8, 2021
Small victories.
17. S. Korea replaces Marine Corps chief
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 8, 2021
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"Glory is now a discredited word, and it will be difficult to re-establish it. It has been spoilt by a too close association with military grandeur; it has been confused with fame and ambition. But true glory is a private and discreet virtue, and is only realized in solitariness."
- Graham Greene (quoting Herbert Read), Ways of Escape, 1980
"...pessimism...can drive men on to do wonders."
- V.S. Naipaul, A bend in the River, 1979
"Communism is cholera and you cannot compromise with cholera."
- First President of South Korea, Syngman Rhee
