News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. FDD Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late May KOREA

2. The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward.

3. HRNK Letter to Her Excellency Ms Siobhán Mullally (north Korean Human Rights)

4. Could More Powerful South Korean Ballistic Missiles Actually Help North Korea?

5. N. Korea expert says WPK turned into “Kim Jong-un party” with amendment in party rules

6. South Korea’s Military Is Shrinking and Some Say Women Must Answer the Call of Duty

7. FM meets U.S. senators, discusses alliance issues

8. Moon visits S. Korea's spy agency for briefing on its reform steps

9. Kim Jong-un’s disappearance from public view stokes speculation

10. UN may probe possible sanctions violations by South Korean firms involving oil tanker transfer to North Korea

11. North Korea places Yanggang Province village under seven-day lockdown in late May

12. North Korea's Ninth Corps lets soldiers go home on "grain leave"

13. Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister, likely being formally elevated in secretive N.K. regime

14. South Korea’s cultural spats with China are growing more intense

15.  An Economic Blueprint for North Korea

16. Guessing game: Will Kim’s sister become his No 2?

17. Why North Korea is facing a major food shortage that could lead to the death of millions

18. North Korea Restricts Local Markets, Pushing Sales in State-Owned Stores

 

1. FDD Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late May KOREA

FDD · by David Maxwell and Mathew Ha

 

2.  The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward.

19fortyfive.com · by David Maxwell · June 3, 2021

My latest essay. It focuses on combined training, the post summit statements from South Korea on cancelling or scaling back training, and the statements from north Korea that it no longer seeks unification by revolution. Needless to say, I take both Moon and Kim to task.

 

3. HRNK Letter to Her Excellency Ms Siobhán Mullally (north Korean Human Rights) 

HRNK  · by Greg Scarlatoiu, Amanda Mortwedt Oh, Rick Herssevoort, and Damian Reddy
 

4. Could More Powerful South Korean Ballistic Missiles Actually Help North Korea?

thediplomat.com · by A. B. Abrams · June 3, 2021

Interesting analysis.  I think the author is slightly overreaching or overthinking on alliance issues.

Excerpts: “While an unrestricted South Korean ballistic missile program may initially appear to threaten the North, with which Seoul and Washington have been technically at war for over 70 years, assessing the full implications of a less restricted South Korea missile program indicates it may in fact strengthen Pyongyang’s position for multiple reasons.

First, the existing range restrictions for South Korean missiles already allow it to field munitions that can strike anywhere on the Korean Peninsula with warheads of any size – with its latest missiles deploying exceptionally large two ton warheads. This means a lifting of restrictions may not actually have any notable impact on the South’s ability to strike the North, in contrast to the previous loosening of restrictions in 2012 and 2017.

...

The lifting of missile restrictions notably comes as part of a growing trend toward greater autonomy for South Korea’s armed forces, with Seoul expected to gain wartime operational command over its military in 2022, when a decades-long arrangement that placed its assets under U.S. wartime command comes to an end. This trend could well lead to a reduced dependence on Washington for protection, and in turn provide Seoul with greater room to conduct policy independently. This has particularly significant implications for its relations with China and North Korea.

...

While Pyongyang will protest the possibility of an expanded South Korean ballistic missile deterrent, and will seek to use Washington’s green light to an expansion of Seoul’s arsenal and capabilities to highlight the double standards under which its own arsenal has been condemned, in the medium term North Korea’s position is likely to only be strengthened. The extent to which Seoul may seek to increasingly assert its independence from Washington as the country takes greater responsibility for its own defense, as trade with China becomes increasingly central to its economic interests, and as the economic benefits of potential rapprochement with Pyongyang remain alluring, is yet to be seen.

 

5. N. Korea expert says WPK turned into “Kim Jong-un party” with amendment in party rules

Hani · by Lee Je-hun,

This is playing right into the regime's political warfare strategy.  All the pundits are coming out with their analysis that the scorpion of the Kim family regime has been able to change its nature.  This can contribute to splitting the ROK/US alliance and will also be used as ammunition by those who believe we should appease north Korea.

Words have meaning. Omitted words may have no meaning.  No one should be duped by this or take it as gospel unless there are substantive actions to back the words (or the omissions).  The only way for me to believe this would have any credibility would be for the regime to come out and tell the Korean people in the north that it has been wrong for 70+ years and that pursuit of unification by revolution was only a pipe dream.  The regime would have to undo 70 years of indoctrination (and again admit it was wrong).  If it does not try to do that, this recent announcement about the change in party rules is not credible and is only part of its political warfare strategy and its intent is trying to generate responses such as the one below.

 

6. South Korea’s Military Is Shrinking and Some Say Women Must Answer the Call of Duty

WSJ

I have observed many extremely competent women in the Korean Special Warfare Command.

Video here and here.

But this article covers more than just the theoretical.  It discusses very real problems that currently exist in the ROK military.

 

7. FM meets U.S. senators, discusses alliance issues

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 4, 2021

The ROK peace agenda.  Yes, we should all want peace (I certainly do). But we should not seek it at the expense of the security of the ROK and the protection of US strategic interests.  We need to always consider the nature, objectives, and the strategy of the Kim family regime.  And we should remember the importance of deterrence and peace through strength.  

Excerpts: “He asked for the continued congressional support for Seoul's peace efforts with North Korea.

...

Later in the day, Defense Minister Suh Wook also met with the senators and discussed ways to cooperate for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a permanent peace, according to the defense ministry.

Suh said the Korea-U.S.alliance and the combined defense posture are stronger than ever before, and expressed gratitude for the congressional support and the senators vowed continued backing for peninsula peace and the alliance, the ministry said.

 

8. Moon visits S. Korea's spy agency for briefing on its reform steps

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 4, 2021

Excerpts: “The president replied that the NIS is now back as an intelligence agency for the state and the people, and called on it to become a "future-oriented" body faithful to its duty.

"The NIS will not go back to the past," Moon was quoted as saying by Cheong Wa Dae spokesperson Park Kyung-mee.

The reform measures represent the "precious fruit" of NIS officials' dedicated efforts and the government's strong will, which would serve as a brilliant milestone in its history, he added.

He recalled his previous visit to the NIS in July 2018, during which he pledged to guarantee its "political neutrality" without using it for political purposes. He said he has kept that promise.

The president expected the agency to help advance South Korea's emergence as a "pacesetting" nation via intelligence activities in the cyber and aerospace sectors.

 

9. Kim Jong-un’s disappearance from public view stokes speculation

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 4, 2021

I would not get too worked up about this.  We go through this periodically.  Yes we need to be observing for indicators and be ready for any contingency. However, based on past history we will see him again sooner or later.

 

10. UN may probe possible sanctions violations by South Korean firms involving oil tanker transfer to North Korea

The Korea Times  · by Nam Hyun-woo · June 4, 2021

Excerpts: “The allegations were raised in a June 1 report released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), an arm of the Center for Strategic & International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank. The report said that Pyongyang had added two new vessels to its fleet for smuggling oil from China, which were previously owned by South Korean companies.

 

Of those tankers, the report said the Shin Pyong 5 was owned by Young Sung Global, a small shipper based in Busan, South Korea, before it was transferred to North Korea. The Shin Pyong 5, which is a 1,579 ton tanker, had been renamed Woojeong in 2019 when its last communication transmission was logged.

...

The AMTI report noted that the tankers made their way to the North via South Korean brokers to China, although the brokers "were reticent to give further information on the sales." It added that the U.N. resolutions prohibit both the "direct and indirect" transfer of sanctioned materials and assets to the North, and whether or not the South Korean brokers breached resolutions may rest on what due diligence they conducted into the China-based buyers.

 

11. North Korea places Yanggang Province village under seven-day lockdown in late May

dailynk.com · June 4, 2021

The Anti-Epidemic Command.

Excerpts: “What the village’s lockdown shows is that North Korea is mobilizing all possible means at its disposal to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

According to the source, animals crossing into the Sino-North Korean border’s buffer zone are typically killed and the region is locked down. “People’s lives will only get worse if these kinds of measures continue,” he added.

On Thursday, Rodong Sinmun called for efforts to secure the “perfection” of the country’s COVID-19 quarantine efforts. On Wednesday, the paper called for “thorough” organizational and political efforts to prevent even the “slightest crack” in quarantine efforts.

 

12. North Korea's Ninth Corps lets soldiers go home on "grain leave"

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · June 4, 2021

Again, this is not a new edict. 

Indicators that bear watching to determine loss of coherency within the military and potential instability.

Excerpts: “In early May, an order handed down by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pointed out that “soldiers are in a perilous state of nutrition” and directed military units to ensure that “soldiers be given at least one bean-based meal a day [such as pureed soybeans or soy milk].”

This was essentially a warning from the country’s supreme leader that “commanders who fail to feed [soldiers] beans will be punished without mercy.” Naturally, this lit a fire under military corps commanders with woefully insufficient stores of beans.

 

13. Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister, likely being formally elevated in secretive N.K. regime

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

We are still speculating on the implications of the announcements and what is really happening inside north Korea.  It will likely be some time before we can make a definitive assessment.

 

14. South Korea’s cultural spats with China are growing more intense

The Economist · June 3, 2021

China should be wary of upsetting the Korean people over such things as Kimchi.

Excerpts: “Young people take a particularly dim view of China, especially when compared with other neighbours and America. “I know that eating mala soup or going to shops run by Chinese-Koreans will benefit the Chinese Communist Party eventually,” says Kim Woo-jin, a 25-year-old from Seoul. Ms Kim, the polling analyst, is not surprised. Young people “don’t know as much about China as about, say, America, so they make fewer distinctions between the country, the people and the government,” she says.

The discontent is, for now, limited to the low-stakes cultural realms of food and television. Popular views of China have little bearing on the South Korean government’s carefully calibrated diplomacy, casting China as an important strategic partner while stressing the centrality of the security alliance with America. Even Chinese officials have made the occasional conciliatory noise about the origins of kimchi. Chinese shop-owners and restaurateurs in Seoul report no signs of a boycott like the one that hit Japanese brands and noodle joints during a spat two years ago.

 

15. An Economic Blueprint for North Korea

The National Interest · by Krishna B. Kumar · June 3, 2021

Reform is not a word in the north Korean (or more specifically, the Kim family regime) vocabulary.  Look to the history of China trying to influence the regime to implement Chinese style economic reforms.  They have had no success in doing so.

But I think we (and specifically South Korea) would be better served by planning for the economic integration during the unification process.  As long as the Kim family regime remains in power there is probably a less than zero chance of any real reform.

Excerpts: “Highlighting the mutual benefits that could accrue to a government in power and its people could even make it consider reforms unilaterally. The RAND study recommends the formalization of jangmadang, informal markets that have proliferated across North Korea since the failure of its public distribution system after the famine of the 1990s. The communist regime tolerates the existence of these market institutions out of necessity, and owners often bribe officials to ensure continued operation. Formalization could empower the shop owners while creating tax revenues for the government. The rise of the donju class of traders and businessmen willing to invest in larger enterprises makes less far-fetched the possibility of market reforms in North Korea.

Likewise, firming up dispute resolution mechanisms in special economic zones, in which much of existing foreign investment and industrial activity occurs in North Korea, easing restrictions, and protecting investment, has the potential to create much-needed jobs for North Korean workers, revenues for the government, and returns to foreign investors.

It would be simplistic to think that developing detailed blueprints for economic development could on its own cut through decades of conflict and mistrust, triggering political and economic reform. But by expanding the terms of the debate and highlighting the mutual benefits that could accrue to the various parties it might move the needle on peace by just a bit. Imagine that.

 

16. Guessing game: Will Kim’s sister become his No 2?

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 3, 2021

Kim Yo-jong is probably the only one who could survive being "No.s 2" for any significant amount of time.  I would not want to be a "No. 2" in north Korea.

 

17. Why North Korea is facing a major food shortage that could lead to the death of millions

The Telegraph · by Julian Ryall

The short answer: Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions to prioritize his nuclear program, the military, and support to the elite over the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.

Will China bail out the regime?

Excerpts: “Analysts say that to avoid a repeat of that tragedy, the North now has little choice but to appeal to China, its sole major ally, for food assistance, although there are no indications that Pyongyang is ready to reopen its border yet.

"The border with China must be opened and the existing controls must be relaxed to ensure that sufficient food can enter the country," the South Korean report said.

"North Korea must also request large-scale food assistance from the international community, which must be forthcoming, even in these difficult times."

 

18. North Korea Restricts Local Markets, Pushing Sales in State-Owned Stores

rfa.org  Jeong Yon Park

The regime cannot tolerate any aspect of freedom and that includes economic freedom. We have seen for the past year the regime use COVID as an excuse to further oppress the Korean people living in the north.

This is why some of us believe that if these conditions persist the people could suffer on a scale much worse than the Arduous March of the famine or 1994-1996.

 

-------------

 

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

"To live is to war with trolls."

- Henrik Ibsen

 

"Conflict is inevitable, but combat is optional."

- Max Lucade

Read the tracker HERE.

June 3, 2021 | FDD Tracker: May 19 – June 3, 2021

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Late May

Jonathan Schanzer

Senior Vice President for Research

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. With the Gaza war now over, the administration is once again looking to focus its efforts on reviving the flawed 2015 nuclear deal, prompting deep concern among our analysts tracking nonproliferation and Iran. A return to the deal could also impact Israel, Lebanon, the Gulf, and other files. The trendlines continue to change in several portfolios – a clear sign that the White House continues to move at a frenetic pace. In a potentially positive development, the White House’s China policy is finally coming into focus. Check back in two weeks to monitor implementation of this and other files.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. America’s largest beer company will buy the country a round if it hits Biden’s July 4 vaccination goal

2. Why Everyone Hates Think Tanks

3. The Case Against Restraint

4. Stop Me If You’ve Heard This one Before: Why are U.S. spies, generals and national security officials surprised so often?

5. Budapest names streets at planned Chinese university after Uyghurs, Hong Kong

6. Austin Asks Top General For ‘Options’ to Evacuate Afghans

7. Afghan pilot once denied refuge arrives in America after months in hiding

8. PRC Researcher on President Biden’s China Experts 中国通

9. America Still Needs Counterinsurgency

10. SECDEF nearing decision about taking sexual assault cases out of chain of command

11. Ransomware Scourge Continues as Essential Services Are Hit

12.  Russian Cybercriminal Group Was Behind Meat Plant Attack, F.B.I. Says

13. The Political Economy of Ransomware

14. Exclusive: How amateur sleuths broke the Wuhan Lab story and embarrassed the media

15. Analysis | Xi’s call for a ‘lovable’ China may not tame the wolf warriors

16. Covid reorders the world's strategic landscape - but not as China expected

17. How Biden came around to the Wuhan lab-leak theory

18. China Has No Place in RIMPAC

19. Wait, How Did a Russian Spy Ship Tip Off a U.S. Missile Test?

20. The U.S. Must Honor Our Promises and Protect Afghan Partners

21. Draft Us Too, America

22. China Is Stealing Our Technology and Intellectual Property. Congress Must Stop It

 

1. America’s largest beer company will buy the country a round if it hits Biden’s July 4 vaccination goal

The Washington Post · by Paulina Firozi · June 2, 2021

Kinda, sorta a national security issue. But seriously, imagine the logistics of this? I bet there will be a run on counterfeiting vaccination cards. While we might reach the 70% goal there will be a 100% claim on the beer! I will present my vaccination card at the Class VI store, the ABC store, the 7-11, my favorite bar, and the local Giant/Safeway/Kroger, etc.

 

2. Why Everyone Hates Think Tanks

Foreign Policy · by Matthew Rojansky, Jeremy Shapiro · May 28, 2021

It is an honor to belong to a think tank that takes no foreign funding and one that is nonpartisan whose only mission is to support US national security and foreign policy.

Excerpts: “In short, our families love us, but they hate our jobs. The worst part is that we see their point. After all, if think tank experts have such great insight into policy, why are the outcomes so terrible so much of the time? Even if it has escaped notice in Washington, most everyone around the family dinner table knows intuitively that the think tank industrial complex is failing to deliver for the country. A recent poll by the U.K.-based firm Cast From Clay concluded that only 20 percent of Americans trust think tanks, and our families, we can attest, are not among them.

...

Do any of these ideas have a chance of being embraced by think tanks or policymakers? Perhaps. Some at least will favor reforms like these because they will see opportunity in a rating and regulatory system that reinforces the controls they already have in place through board oversight and regular audits. A rating system will help these virtuous think tanks prove their bona fides to funders, the government, and the broader public. Others will balk at the notion and might either survive by migrating to the gray space in between for-profit lobbying and tax-exempt research or run afoul of the new rules and suffer reputational consequences, even potentially going bust. Market forces and individual preferences will decide.

Regardless, our relatives will understand better what think tanks are about, and we might start to get a little more respect when the dinner conversation turns to policy. Our families might never learn to love our jobs, but at least they won’t be the conversation killers they are now.

 

3. The Case Against Restraint

World Politics Review

At the link is an interesting podcast, described below. 

Note also the guest, Thomas Wright, co-authored a forthcoming book with Colin Kahl, the USD(P), that will be published in August.

Wright asked the key question about restrainers: "What is the problem they are trying to solve?"

The USS Ronald Reagan and USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Groups sail together in formation, in the South China Sea, July 6, 2020 (Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Jason Tarleton for U.S. Navy via AP Images).

 

4. Stop Me If You’ve Heard This one Before: Why are U.S. spies, generals and national security officials surprised so often?

spytalk.co · by Jeff Stein

An interesting thought piece from a provocative title.

Excerpts: “But there’s a global, big-power guerrilla war of sorts going on as well with China. Its challenge is of an entirely different order, not one we can so easily sweep away. In so many of the battlegrounds of Asia and Africa, America’s promise has been tattered by decades of acquiescence, if not outright support, for brutal, corrupt strongmen. (Read: Al-Sisi, and so many more.) “The American brand is still strong,” an idealistic young U.S. foreign service officer told me a few years ago, slightly amazed, when Trump was blocking Muslim immigrants and bashing the “shit holes” of the world. What’s the brand? Security and freedom. A chance to strike it rich. Big Macs and big cars. Sex.

China’s long game is to show nations in play that applying the brand at home is forever beyond their reach, that the U.S. can’t or won’t protect them, and that Beijing’s armies of engineers can do a better job of delivering prosperity to them now than the capitalists will ever deliver the future.

That’s where the real fight is, not in the South China Sea. Aircraft carriers are just targets now. The hardcore struggle for military domination is in cyberspace.

As our troops straggle out of Kabul, it feels already like an inter-war period—like Vietnam in the early days, before the illusions cracked from their own weight. Like Iraq, before our astounding miscalculations turned the country into a slaughterhouse. Like Afghanistan, where we rid the country of the repressive mullahs only to put new bad guys on their backs.

 

5. Budapest names streets at planned Chinese university after Uyghurs, Hong Kong

Reuters

Good job Budapest!

 

6. Austin Asks Top General For ‘Options’ to Evacuate Afghans

defenseone.com · by Tara Copp and Jacqueline Feldscher · June 2, 2021

Excerpts: “If a similar request is made of the Pentagon by the White House, the military will be ready, Kirby said.

“We are a planning organization, we plan for all manner of contingencies, some of those contingencies are non-combatant evacuations around the world, that would include Afghanistan. So we certainly have, we have put some planning resources to this, no question.”

 

7. Afghan pilot once denied refuge arrives in America after months in hiding

Stars and Stripes · by J.P. Lawrence · June 2, 2021

 

8. PRC Researcher on President Biden’s China Experts 中国通

gaodawei.wordpress.com · by David Cowhig · May 30, 2021

Fascinating analysis from China of our "young" China experts in the Biden administration. I feel pretty old when compared with the ages of these young whipper snappers!

 

9. America Still Needs Counterinsurgency

Foreign Affairs · by Max Boot · June 2, 2021

We need to sustain (joint and interagency) expertise in COIN to be able to advise and assist our friends, partners, and allies in the their internal defense and development programs so they can defend themselves against lawless, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, and civil war. We have to get out of the business of conducting COIN for others.

 

10. SECDEF nearing decision about taking sexual assault cases out of chain of command

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · June 2, 2021

This will be huge.

 

11. Ransomware Scourge Continues as Essential Services Are Hit

WSJ · by Robert McMillan, Joseph De Avila and Jacob Bunge

Excerpts: “Emboldened by recent successes, hackers have shifted their focus away from data-rich companies such as retailers, financial institutions and insurance companies to providers of key public needs such as hospitals, transportation and food. The trend is part of a global criminal pivot from stealing data to hobbling operations via ransomware, where companies are hit with demands for million-dollar payments to regain control of their operating systems.

 

12. Russian Cybercriminal Group Was Behind Meat Plant Attack, F.B.I. Says

The New York Times · by Julie Creswell, Nicole Perlroth, and Noam Scheiber· June 2, 2021

I am reminded of Frank Hoffman's description of hybrid threats, conflict, and war:

“A hybrid threat transcends a blend of regular and irregular tactics. More than a decade ago, it was defined as an adversary that “simultaneously and adaptively employs a fused mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, catastrophic terrorism, and criminal behavior in the battlespace to obtain desired political objectives.”54 The criminal, or more broadly “socially disruptive behavior,” and mass terrorism aspects should not be overlooked, but the fusion of advanced military capabilities with irregular forces and tactics is key, and has appeared repeatedly during the past decade from Hezbollah to the Russian campaigns in Georgia and Ukraine.55 Hezbollah’s method of fighting Israel as is described by its leader Hassan Nasrallah, is an organic response to its security dilemma and “not a conventional army and not a guerrilla force, it is something in between.”56 As lethal as Hezbollah has been in the past decade, we should be concerned about the lessons it is learning in Syria from the Russians.57

Hybrid threats can also be created by a state actor using a proxy force. A proxy force sponsored by a major power can generate hybrid threats readily using advanced military capabilities provided by the sponsor. Proxy wars, appealing to some as “warfare on the cheap” are historically ubiquitous but chronically understudied.58

The hybrid threat concept captures the ongoing implications of globalization, the diffusion of military-related technologies, and the information revolution. Hybrid threats are qualitatively different from less complex irregular or militia forces. They, by and large, cannot be defeated simply by Western counterterrorism tactics or protracted counterinsurgency techniques. Hybrid threats are more lethal than irregular forces conducting simple ambushes using crude improvised explosive devices, but they are not unfamiliar to Western forces and can be defeated with sufficient combat power.59

 

13. The Political Economy of Ransomware

warontherocks.com · by Jenny Jun · June 2, 2021

Excerpts: “In short, it’s hard to find fundamental differences between state and nonstate actors in ways that undermine the strategic logic of encryption.

In order to avoid strategic surprise, U.S. policymakers ought to reexamine the claim that adversaries will primarily use cyber means for espionage and covert action, but not for coercion. States have proven time and time again to be creative in how they leverage cyberspace, identifying overlooked areas and exploiting it for strategic gain. States like North Korea are already operating at the intersection of criminal and strategic activity in cyberspace, including the deployment of ransomware. It is only a matter of time before they connect the rest of the dots.

The question is not whether encryption will ever be used for geopolitical gain instead of bitcoins, but when and how. In the short term, the newly formed Ransomware Task Force — a partnership between the U.S. government and private-sector players — should continue to coordinate policy solutions to ransomware. For example, more cyber insurance providers should stop covering ransom payments and should instead actively incentivize victims to choose not to pay by covering the cost of system recovery without decryption. Where possible, real-time or offline backups should be subsidized or incorporated in insurance underwriting. In the longer term, policymakers should foster research collaboration between practitioners and academics to identify scenarios in which adversaries could use encryption coercively, which systems would be most vulnerable to such an attempt, and how such scenarios would impact America’s strategic position.

 

14. Exclusive: How amateur sleuths broke the Wuhan Lab story and embarrassed the media

Newsweek · by Pedro L. Gonzalez · June 2, 2021

We met with a risk analysis expert from Taiwan in January 2020 just as the pandemic was emerging. He did/does extensive work in China. He described the Wuhan lab and its proximity to the wet market and the rumors that were already being spread about the possibility of a link to the lab.

 

15. Analysis | Xi’s call for a ‘lovable’ China may not tame the wolf warriors

The Washington Post · by Adam Taylor · June 3, 2021

Excerpts: “The wolf warriors didn’t stop their attacks during the pandemic. Zhao spread baseless theories that the U.S. military could have been behind the coronavirus pandemic that first emerged in Wuhan, China — a notion so bold that some other Chinese diplomats seemed to distance themselves from it.

But increasing international pressure for an investigation into the coronavirus′s origins in China, following Biden’s call for a new assessment of intelligence into the once-discounted lab-leak theory, shows one downside to hyperdefensive diplomacy: It makes it look like you have something to hide.

Moreover, China is entangled in a variety of ugly disputes with countries it once got along with politely. Relations with the European Union broke down amid disputes over Xinjiang, effectively ending plans for a trade and investment treaty. Relations with Australia and India have broken down, with the latter in a small-scale but very real border conflict with China last year.

Taiwan, meanwhile, with its softer diplomatic style of “cat diplomacy,” seemed to be gaining where China was failing.

 

16. Covid reorders the world's strategic landscape - but not as China expected

The Telegraph · by Ben Woods

Excerpts: “One result of Xi’s overreach was a Pew Survey of fourteen countries last October showing that negative views of China had surged to record levels, even in Korea. Another result is the strengthening of the Quad alliance of India, Japan, Australia, and the US, with Europe crabbing sideways into the same camp.

President Xi has told his diplomats to mind their language and strive to make China “loveable” but there is no going back once the mask has slipped.

The risk for China is that the investigation of the Wuhan lab theory by the US intelligence agencies validates what has until now been deemed a conspiracy theory. If the Chinese state created this virus, covered up the leak, and then allowed airline passengers to seed it around the world, the consequences will be catastrophic. The year that China claimed ascendancy may prove to be its annus horribilis.

 

17. How Biden came around to the Wuhan lab-leak theory

Financial Times · by Demetri Sevastopulo · May 31, 2021

Excerpts: “One person familiar with the situation said the National Intelligence Council, which collates information from the entire intelligence community, produced two reports last year assessing US intelligence on the origins of Covid. The director for national intelligence declined to comment.

Those efforts, coupled with a third “scrub” of the intelligence this year, led to Biden saying last week that two of the 18 branches of the intelligence community leaned towards the natural origin scenario, while a third was more inclined towards the lab-leak theory.

Biden said the three had only “low or moderate confidence” in their conclusions while the other branches did not have enough evidence. That has sparked concern that 90 days is not sufficient for intelligence officials to reach any solid determination.

“The community as a whole is far away from reaching anything that we could call even a halfway firm conclusion,” said Paul Pillar, a former senior CIA official. “The fact that many of the agencies involved have not reached a consensus even for a ‘low confidence’ judgment tells you they’re a long way away from anything conclusive.”

 

18. China Has No Place in RIMPAC

realcleardefense.com · by Scott Franklin

Excerpt: “There was a time when the free world stood in defiance of totalitarian regimes that engaged in genocide, human rights abuses, and reckless aggression. Sadly, much of the international community continues to allow China's behavior to go on unabated due to financial interest, a lack of willpower, or fear of reprisal. The U.S. has historically played an important role by taking a principled stance against aggressive totalitarian regimes. Millions of Americans across our country still see America as the defender of freedom and liberty. Millions of people across the world are also watching to see if America will take a stand and demonstrate leadership against the PRC's revolting practices. The U.S. must find ways to push back against Chinese aggression at every given opportunity. Including a requirement to end PRC human rights abuses as an additional condition of participating in RIMPAC will send an important message to the PRC that its attempts to remake the world order in its totalitarian image are unacceptable.

 

19. Wait, How Did a Russian Spy Ship Tip Off a U.S. Missile Test?

Popular Mechanics · by Kyle Mizokami · June 2, 2021

Wait, How Did a Russian Spy Ship Tip Off a U.S. Missile Test?

 

20. The U.S. Must Honor Our Promises and Protect Afghan Partners

realcleardefense.com · by Jason Crow, Mike Waltz, Brad Wenstrup & Seth Moulton

Excerpt: “As members of Congress from both parties, we are coming together to ensure that America honors its promise to those who have stood by us for the last 20 years.

We will debate the merits of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for decades to come. But what isn't up for debate is our obligation to stand by those who stood by us. It's too late for Mohammad and many others like him. But it's not too late for the thousands of others waiting in line that we can help. There is honor for us in doing the right thing for our friends and partners while we close this chapter on America's longest war.

 

21. Draft Us Too, America

usni.org   · by  Sydney Frankenberg and Hallie Lucas· June 2, 2021

Excerpt: “As two young women in a country faced by myriad threats, we constantly consider the service yet to come, what was asked of citizens in World War II, and what may one day be asked of U.S. citizens again. When sacrifice is required, the burden should be shared among all citizens, not just the nation’s sons, brothers, and fathers, but its daughters, sisters, and mothers, too. For both the foundations and protection of our democracy, it is past time women are included in the Selective Service. Draft us too, America.

 

22. China Is Stealing Our Technology and Intellectual Property. Congress Must Stop It

National Review Online · by Dan Blumenthal and Linda Zhang · June 2, 2021

Conclusion: “The CCP’s commitment to technological progress at U.S. expense is at the center of its grand strategy. Legislation to advance the U.S. research enterprise may be necessary to spur investment in areas of scientific and technological research that will not be covered by private enterprise. But Congress can be sure that the CCP is tracking the legislation closely and will set loose its tech thieves on new U.S. programs. The bill must prohibit funding of researchers, universities, and enterprises that are complicit in technology theft. Researchers tied to Chinese talents programs and military–civil fusion enterprises need particular attention from U.S. counterintelligence and other officials. The USICA must be used to finally address the full extent of the CCP’s massive foreign-technology-acquisition programs, enabling the sanctioning of China’s worst IP thieves, expanding intelligence and law-enforcement tools to punish offenders, and strengthening controls against all CCP organizations and businesses operating in the U.S. to steal technology.

 

-----------------

 

"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."

-Zygmunt Bauman

 

"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken

 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

-Edward Abbey

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Negotiating With North Korea: An interview with former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun

2. What Kim Jong Un’s regime shake-up says about his leadership

3. FM Chung holds breakfast talks with new U.S. Indo-Pacific commander

4. U.S. assumes 'ready' position for talks with North: Sherman

5. Cyberattacks by North Korea Pose Threat to US

6. Ahn cleared of robbery charge in Madrid embassy raid case

7. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea for decision to take part in upcoming air drills with U.S., Japan

8. North evades sanctions and gets 3 new tankers: CSIS report

9. U.S. Wants Higher-Profile Summit with Korea and Japan

10. Moon’s last, best chance after Biden summit

11. South Korea Erupts in Outrage Over Tokyo Olympics Map

12. New party rules show North Korean leader breaking away from predecessors

13. North Hamgyong Province moves to replace older generation of officials at historical sites

14. Two young children in Yanggang Province abducted for ransoms in May

15. Memorializing Vietnam, Korean wars

16. SKorea’s Hanwha pitches K9 howitzer for British mobile fires program

17. South Korea to repair pedestrian bridge in Panmunjom

18. Go beyond alliance (ROK/US)

 

1. Negotiating With North Korea: An interview with former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun

Arms Control

I think this is Steve's first interview since stepping down as the Special Representative. He provides some important insights and this is worth reading.

Key excerpt: “I actually don't think security is the driver of the North Korean nuclear weapons program. It’s national mobilization around the ideology of the regime. Also, I think the North Koreans know well, it's an attention getter. They used their weapons of mass destruction program to attract concessions from the outside world in the past. What we tried to do is show them is there is a better way through diplomacy.”

The idea of "testing a proposition" is important and though unstated in the public discussions of the Biden Korea policy I think it is a key component of principled and practical diplomacy. But the question is can there be working level negotiations with the north or will continue to prevent his negotiators from being empowered as described below? 

 

Excerpts: “For all the controversy and debate that his foreign policies generated, I can say as a negotiator that it was incredibly empowering to be able to test a proposition like that. For many of the president's critics, their concern was that somehow he was going to give away the store, that he was going to accept the one-sided deal. I think what the summit in Hanoi showed was that it was going to take two to tango. 

 

We had high hopes going into the summit. I and our negotiating team were there a week before the summit. We'd been to Pyongyang a few weeks before that, and we met in Washington a few weeks before that. We had laid out to each other in detail what our views were, what our objectives were. They didn't align entirely, but each side knew what the other side was looking for out of this. When we got to Hanoi, our North Korean counterparts had absolutely no authority to discuss denuclearization issues, which is just absurd. It was one of the core points of agreement between the two leaders in Singapore.

 

Sanctions: “ACT: North Korea has become highly adept at sidestepping U.S. and UN sanctions and has been unwilling to make concessions in response to those sanctions. No doubt, some partners, namely China, could do more to enforce international sanctions now in place. Have we effectively reached the limits of using sanctions to coerce better behavior on nuclear matters from North Korea? 

Biegun: Sanctions rarely if ever produce, in and of themselves, a policy shift. The sanctions are a necessary component of diplomacy that affects the choices or the timetable that the other party may have in terms of whatever it is you're seeking to address. So, sanctions are a tool, not the policy itself. 

No amount of sanctions evasion is able to overcome the severe downward turn of the North Korean economy because the sanctions are draconian, but if you wanted to make them more severe, that decision really lies in Beijing. I'm not sure at this point that more could be accomplished by more sanctions. I think it's kind of a reflexive statement that policymakers make when put on the spot. The key here is to find a way to appropriately use the pressure of sanctions to produce a better outcome in diplomacy and to get on with what needs to be done on the Korean peninsula to end this ridiculous 65 years of hostility, long after a war between two systems that no longer even exist today, at one of their first showdowns after World War II.

 

2. What Kim Jong Un’s regime shake-up says about his leadership

Vox · by Alex Ward · June 2, 2021

We are going to be analyzing this and speculating about what it means for some time to come.

While many are looking at this from the internal perspective (te.g., to better run the "state.") I view this through the political warfare lens and how this supports Kim's political warfare strategy. This could be a major influence operation.

Excerpts: “As of now, it’s unclear who will assume the first secretary position. Most experts think it will be a confidante of Kim’s and someone who serves on the five-member presidium, a committee made up of top members of the ruling party. Reports suggest Jo Yong Won, who is close to Kim and believed to be in his mid-60s, could get the job or may have it already.

Put together, all of this means two key things: Kim seems to have the future of his nation in mind, and

 

3.  FM Chung holds breakfast talks with new U.S. Indo-Pacific commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 3, 2021

Tending to our alliances continues.

Diplomacy is at the heart of our foreign policy and alliances are the centerpiece of diplomacy.

 

4. U.S. assumes 'ready' position for talks with North: Sherman

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · June 3, 2021

We are providing the opportunity to Kim Jong-un to act as a responsible member of the international community and conduct diplomacy. The ball is in KJU's court.

But the title makes me think of the movie Animal House -  Assume the (ready) position and say: "Please sir, may I have another" which may describe the last nearly 4 decades of negotiations with north Korea. (apologies for the attempt at humor).

 

5. Cyberattacks by North Korea Pose Threat to US

dailysignal.com · by Bruce Klingner · June 2, 2021

Yes. And to nations around the world. north Korea is a global threat in cyberspace.

 

6. Ahn cleared of robbery charge in Madrid embassy raid case

koreanjoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee · June 3, 2021

Some good news. Small victories. Hopefully the other charges will be dropped.

 

7. N.K. propaganda outlet slams S. Korea for decision to take part in upcoming air drills with U.S., Japan

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 3, 2021

Surely not a surprise.

But the buried lede: We learn from north Korea that the ROK has participated in 153 joint training exercises over the last year.

Excerpts: "The reality is that the South Korean military is going through fire and water for the U.S., obsessed with following its scheme to invade Korea and realize the Indo-Pacific strategy," Meari, a North Korean propaganda website, said.

"As the world's largest combat training exercises, the drills are already well known for its belligerent and invasive nature," it added.

The website also slammed South Korea for participating in a total of 153 joint exercises last year amid the global coronavirus pandemic.

 

8. North evades sanctions and gets 3 new tankers: CSIS report

koreanjoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim · June 3, 2021

The reference CSIS article is here: 

 

9. U.S. Wants Higher-Profile Summit with Korea and Japan

english.chosun.com

A significant development. We are really putting our alliance first and willing to spend diplomatic capital to improve trilateral cooperation with our linchpin and cornerstone alliances in Northeast Asia:

 

"U.S. President Joe Biden hopes to hold the trilateral summit in Washington as soon as possible," a diplomatic source said Wednesday. "The message has been delivered to Seoul and Tokyo, where diplomats are fine-tuning options."

It appears Washington wants to make the meeting more visible than it would be on the sidelines of the G7 summit in order to impress China with a show of unity.

 

10. Moon’s last, best chance after Biden summit

lowyinstitute.org · by Soo Kim

President Moon's presidency is on short final and there is not much time to secure his legacy regarding north Korea policy.

Excerpt: “On engagement with North Korea, the Moon government faced equally challenging currents. With prospects for a nuclear deal on the wane, Pyongyang had not only closed the door to talks, it had also expressed displeasure with the Moon government through harshly worded rhetoric – even going so far last year as to threaten to blow up the inter-Korean liaison office and promptly delivering on this promise hours later. And with less than a year remaining in Moon’s term, the pressure has intensified even more over an issue widely considered his goal for a presidential legacy.

 

11. South Korea Erupts in Outrage Over Tokyo Olympics Map

thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · June 2, 2021

Perhaps when President Biden meets with Moon and Suga he should have an unnamed photo on the wall in the background of Dokdo/Takeshima/Liancourt Rocks to kickstart a discussion. (Not!)

 

12. New party rules show North Korean leader breaking away from predecessors

The Korea Times · June 3, 2021

We need to take all this breathless analysis with a grain of salt. Yes words have meaning and we should thoroughly study these announcements. But actions speak louder than words. We must take the time to observe for the indicators to show us whether or not these words foreshadow a significant change in the regime's behavior. I remain skeptical and my assessment is this is all part of a political warfare strategy with Juche characteristics.

 

13. North Hamgyong Province moves to replace older generation of officials at historical sites

dailynk.com  · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 3, 2021

This is an action that bears watching. Will there be a purge of the old guard? Is this the canary in the coal mine for a nation level change (purge?).

Excerpt: “The provincial party felt the need for a generational change while examining the state of historical activities in the province, finding that cadres and instructors at local historical sites were older and sicker than those at sites in other provinces. The committee immediately ordered the reshuffle, instructing that it be completed within a month, said the source.”

 

14. Two young children in Yanggang Province abducted for ransoms in May

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Un · June 3, 2021

north Korea is not immune from these terrible crimes against children and families.

 

15.  Memorializing Vietnam, Korean wars

The Korea Times  · by Donald Kirk · June 3, 2021

Don Kirk shows us the forgotten Korean War is not so forgotten these days.

 

16. SKorea’s Hanwha pitches K9 howitzer for British mobile fires program

Defense News · by Brian Kim and Andrew Chuter · June 2, 2021

The South Korean defense industry is becoming a global player.

 

17. South Korea to repair pedestrian bridge in Panmunjom

donga.com · June 3, 2021

 

18. Go beyond alliance (ROK/US)

The Korea Times · June 2, 2021

An OpEd that does not bode well for the alliance. As I will note in an essay soon to be published the Moon Administrations comments about cancelling the August Dong Meang training appears to be backsliding on a key alliance commitment - maintaining military readiness to deter and defend.

Excerpts: “After the better-than-expected Moon-Biden summit, Seoul must be finding it far more difficult to play a balancing act between Washington and Beijing. South Korea will likely face greater pressure to take part in the Quad, comprised of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia. The country will also face a stronger backlash from China for its closer alliance with the U.S.

In this context, the Moon administration needs to prepare for the worst-case scenario under which Korea is forced to choose sides amid the escalating superpower confrontation. We have to make efforts to avoid any retaliation from Beijing as seen in the dispute over Seoul's decision to allow Washington to deploy a missile defense system, known as THAAD, on our soil in 2017.

Now, policymakers and politicians should overhaul the country's long-held policy of relying on the U.S. for security and depending on China for economic growth. Excessive dependence on a single country for whatever reason is highly dangerous.

More than anything else, Korea desperately needs "creative diplomacy" and a new survival strategy that can go beyond alliances and great power competition. It is time to hammer out comprehensive measures to prevent our country being caught in the crossfire of the ever-fiercer Sino-U.S. conflict.

 

-----------

 

"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."

-Zygmunt Bauman

 

"Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right."

- H.L. Mencken

 

"The best cure for the ills of democracy is more democracy."

-Edward Abbey

USE OF IEDs AND VBIEDs IN MEXICAN CRIME WARS

Small Wars Journal-El Centro Senior Fellows Robert J. Bunker and John P. Sullivan along with analyst David A. Kuhn, and SWJ-El Centro Associate Alma Kehavarz look at the evolving use of explosives in Mexico's criminal insurgencies and crime wars in a new article at Counter-IED Report. 

The article, "Use of IEDs and VBIEDs in Mexican Crime Wars," reviews the current situation involving the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) and Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) in Mexico's crime wars. The evolution of the threat is illustrated through discussion of four recent cases in 2019-2020.

Source: Robert J. Bunker, John P. Sullivan, David A. Kuhn, and Alma Keshavarz, "Use of IEDs and VBIEDs in Mexican Crime Wars." Counter IED-Report. Spring-Summer 2021. pp. 63-73.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence

2. Are Special Envoys All That Special Anymore?

3. US Indo-Pacific commander reaffirms alliance with Japan amid China territorial claims

4. US to hand Bagram base to Afghan forces in 20 days, says official

5. China's destruction of Uyghur cultural property evidence of 'genocidal intent', UK MPs declare

6. US-China blame game revived with new lab-leak probe

7. Cyberattack hits world’s largest meat supplier

8. Oops! Paratroopers raid Bulgarian olive oil factory by mistake

9. Biden’s China obsession could be the undoing of America

10. Japan’s rising-sun uniform sparks controversy

11. US secretary of state warns Pacific leaders about ‘coercion’ in veiled swipe at China

12. Analysis | The pandemic is getting worse, even when it seems like it’s getting better

13. Microwave weapons that could cause Havana Syndrome exist, experts say

14. US Army’s $5.5 wish list to Congress seeks to restore tough cuts made to protect force modernization

15. The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know

16. Identity Politics With Chinese Characteristics

17. The Declaration of Independence: A 'New' Framework for U.S. Foreign Policy?

18. Political Will: The Most Crucial Element in Foreign Affairs

19. The Conspiracy Theory of Society

20. Special Operations News Update - Tuesday, June 1, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. Official Talks DOD Policy Role in Chinese Pacing Threat, Integrated Deterrence

defense.gov · by Jim Garamone

I understand "integrated deterrence" is going to be the new buzz phrase. I hope that it will include the use of SOF in unconventional deterrence based on developing resistance operating concepts in select countries.

Excerpts: “Kahl spoke of the importance of integrated deterrence. "As we work on the national defense strategy, this concept of integrated deterrence will be a cornerstone of that approach," he said.

Austin envisions this as integrating deterrence across domains of competition and conflict. The military already does a good job with this in the more conventional domains of land, sea and air. But integrated deterrence will include space and cyber domains and the informational world as well. "These are areas, frankly, where our peer competitors are pressing us, and we have hard thinking to do," Kahl said.

Integrated deterrence also must be effective across the spectrum of conflict. He said. Russia and China will often operate in the "grey zone" short of conflict. "How do we deter and operate in that environment?" Kahl asked.

 

2. Are Special Envoys All That Special Anymore?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer · June 1, 2021

Special is a word used too much. (perhaps starting with special operations and Special Forces!!)

But can we wean ourselves off of them? Can't most of the work being done by these special envoys and representatives be done by the diplomats who have existing portfolios in these areas? When there was a rumor there might be no special representative for north Korea, the critics saying this shows a lack of focus and priority on north Korea. (it might have even caused north Korea to act out in frustration for not being a priority!). My early thought was that Ambassador Kim appointed acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific so he could oversee and participate in the Korea policy review and development. When there were rumors there might be no special representative appointed, my thought was the President would nominate Ambassador Kim to be the assistant Secretary and he would perform the duties of special representative from that position and thus there would be no need for a separate special representative.

That said in many cases these special representatives and envoys can be important for messaging and signaling priorities and some may be more empowered than those career personnel in existing key positions. And non-US target audiences may give the appointment of special representatives and envoys more legitimacy than career personnel in routine diplomatic positions.

 

3. US Indo-Pacific commander reaffirms alliance with Japan amid China territorial claims

militarytimes.com · by Mari Yamaguchi · June 1, 2021

 

4. US to hand Bagram base to Afghan forces in 20 days, says official

news.yahoo.com

I am sure the professional logisticians have the withdrawal well planned out but without knowing any other details I would think we would want to maintain access to airports of debarkation/embarkation for as long as possible to retain agility and flexibility.

 

5. China's destruction of Uyghur cultural property evidence of 'genocidal intent', UK MPs declare

UPI · by Riah Pryor

 

6. US-China blame game revived with new lab-leak probe

asiatimes.com · by Melissa Conley Tyler · June 2, 2021

We should recall how China has tried to control the narrative. Back in January 2020 China first called the coronavirus the Wuhan virus and Wuhan pneumonia. Within days it changed the narrative despite the long custom naming the virus for the location in which they were discovered.

Was even that part of a possible "cover-up" and did the Chinese know the virus came from the lab?

 

7. Cyberattack hits world’s largest meat supplier

NBC News · by  June 1, 2021

Hitting us where it hurts, in our stomachs.

 

8. Oops! Paratroopers raid Bulgarian olive oil factory by mistake

armytimes.com · by Todd South · June 2, 2021

I guess this is one time the rule of LGOPs backfired.

Rule of LGOPs

After the demise of the best Airborne plan, a most terrifying effect occurs on the battlefield.

This effect is known as the Rule of LGOPs. This is, in its purest Normandy_1944 form, small groups of 19- year old American Paratroopers. They are well-trained, armed-to-the-teeth and lack serious adult supervision. They collectively remember the Commander’s intent as “March to the sound of the guns and kill anyone who is not dressed like you…” …or something like that. Happily they go about the day’s work…

The Rule of LGOPs is instructive:

– They shared a common vision

– The vision was simple, easy to understand, and unambiguous

– They were trained to improvise and take the initiative

– They need to be told what to do; not how to do it

The Rule of LGOPs is, of course, a metaphor for resilience. All Armies, by the way, believe their soldiers are the best, the bravest, the most noble. But not all are the most resilient or adaptable. To be sure, I am not denigrating planning. Whether that structured thought effort is military, homeland security, or risk assessment, which I include as a type of planning. But anticipation must go hand in glove with adaptability.  Life is full of surprises.

 

9. Biden’s China obsession could be the undoing of America

asiatimes.com · by George Koo · June 2, 2021

Obsession? How about a healthy respect for the competition and threat and a commitment to protecting US interests?

 

10. Japan’s rising-sun uniform sparks controversy

DONGA · by Heon-Jae Lee

Of course this would be criticized by Korea.

It has been pointed out that the uniform of the Japanese national golf team participating in the Tokyo Olympics features design reminiscent of the Rising Sun Flag.

The Japan Golf Association held a press conference to unveil the national golf team uniform on Monday. But the uniform of the Japanese women’s national golf team unveiled on the website of the association featured stripes at angle of 45 degrees that was reminiscent of the Rising Sun Flag. Michiko Hatori, Japanese women’s national golf team coach, explained that the uniform basically represents rising sun in Japan with the slanting stripes. The Rising Sun Flag is considered a symbol of Japanese militarism but Japan has been insisting that it is a traditional design that is meant to bring luck.

 

11. US secretary of state warns Pacific leaders about ‘coercion’ in veiled swipe at China

The Guardian · by Kate Lyons · June 2, 2021

I hate to beat a dead horse but here are my thoughts: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.

 

12. Analysis | The pandemic is getting worse, even when it seems like it’s getting better

The Washington Post · by Ishaan Tharoor · June 2, 2021

Oh no!

Excerpts: “Covid-19 won’t end with a bang or a parade,” wrote Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh. “Throughout history, pandemics have ended when the disease ceases to dominate daily life and retreats into the background like other health challenges.”

But the pandemic is hardly in retreat elsewhere. The emergence of more virulent variants of the virus in countries like Brazil and India and the slowness of vaccination efforts in many places outside the West have contributed to deadly new waves. Coronavirus case counts worldwide are already higher in 2021 than they were in 2020. The death toll almost certainly will be.

...

Now, time is of the essence, as more transmissible variants appear to be burning rapidly through societies without much immunological protection. “It is, of course, understandable that every nation wants to vaccinate its own first, but a country with high levels of vaccination, especially among its more vulnerable populations, can hold things off, especially if they also had big outbreaks before,” wrote Zeynep Tufekci in the New York Times, arguing that wealthier nations like the United States should be actively prioritizing providing for other countries over its own population. “In addition, excess stockpiles can go where they are needed without even slowing down existing vaccination programs.”

Anthony S. Fauci, the leading infectious-disease expert in the United States, appeared to recognize the broader threat. “As long as there is some degree of activity throughout the world, there’s always a danger of variants emerging and diminishing somewhat the effectiveness of our vaccines,” he told the Guardian.

 

13. Microwave weapons that could cause Havana Syndrome exist, experts say

The Guardian · by Julian Borger · June 2, 2021

I met with a US diplomat who had to leave Cuba before her tour was up because of the effects she suffered prior to the pandemic. Her story seemed very credible to me. There was no doubt she was suffering debilitating effects that could not be explained by other causes.

 

14. US Army’s $5.5 wish list to Congress seeks to restore tough cuts made to protect force modernization

Defense News · by Jen Judson · June 1, 2021

Ah yes, the old UFR list.

 

15.  The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know

cfr.org · by Sheila A. Smith

A short tutorial.

 

16. Identity Politics With Chinese Characteristics

Foreign Affairs · by Odd Arne Westad · June 1, 2021

Key points: “At the same time, however, most Chinese today believe that the international order is rigged against China. For more than 500 years, this thinking goes, Europeans have taken possession of the world. They have wiped out native peoples and enslaved others, colonized vast swaths of the globe, and taken control of natural resources. The so-called liberal order that these Europeans and their descendants have constructed is thus blatantly unfair—not just because it was built on wealth and power gained through genocide, colonialism, and slavery but also because by the time China became a global power, the institutions and norms of the Western-dominated order were already firmly in place. China and the Chinese, in this view, will always be second-rate in such a world.

It is difficult for foreigners to disabuse Chinese of this notion. Many Chinese find it laughable when Westerners concede that their societies were deeply illiberal for centuries but then insist that they are wholly different today. Meanwhile, Western governments feed the darker undercurrents of Chinese nationalism by frequently disregarding the very norms, values, and institutions they claim to defend.

It is hard, however, to see where such a dim view of the status quo will take China, except toward a form of international nihilism. The CCP seems to understand this as well, as the party struggles to suppress unlicensed ultranationalist groups within China. After all, extreme, chauvinistic nationalism could be easily turned against the party and its rule, as happened when Russia abolished the Soviet Union. For that reason, despite Hayton’s bleak account of the origins of the CCP’s identity politics, there is some reason to hope that pure self-preservation may eventually lead the party toward a less strident form of nationalism. No one, however, should expect that to happen anytime soon.

 

17. The Declaration of Independence: A 'New' Framework for U.S. Foreign Policy?

19fortyfive.com · by Andrew Bibb · June 1, 2021

Excerpts: “The first step in identifying a cohesive philosophy for international engagement is to understand the character of our own nation. Foreign policy expert Angelo Codevilla teaches that “the arts of diplomacy, economic suasion, influence, and war are means by which to move other countries. They are logically subordinate to decisions about the ends proper to one’s own country and prudent in its circumstances.” Lieutenant General (Retired) Charles T. Cleveland, former commanding general of US Army Special Operations Command, agrees that even the way we wage war should “reflect who we are as a people, our diversity, our moral code, and our undying belief in freedom and liberty.”

...

Respecting the tension that exists between universal human equality and duty to one’s own countrymen, the Declaration’s authors emphasize that they reached their decision to take up arms only after exhausting every diplomatic avenue available. It was not until their “repeated Petitions” had been answered by “repeated injury” that war became necessary. The American way is not one of conquest, but of assertiveness when necessary and peace when possible. For us might does not make right. Strength is only proper when subordinated to goodness and truth. It was not enough for the Declaration’s signers to affirm what circumstances “are,” detached from any moral considerations. They found their justification in recognizing what “ought to be.”

The closing lines of the Declaration do not qualify any of the preceding statements or build in any room for excuses for the potential failure of its enterprise. Its signers assume full responsibility for their actions and any consequences that follow. With “a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence,” they commit in no uncertain terms to see the mission through or perish in the process.

This only scratches the surface of the vast cohesive and magnanimous philosophy to be gleaned from the Declaration by foreign policy professionals who seek to guide their strategic assumptions by foundational presuppositions. Strategic assumptions in support of cohesive foreign policy may only be made within the context of sound philosophy as a framework for action. Most importantly, if our oath to the Constitution means anything it means taking the Declaration’s philosophy seriously, for it is the very purpose of the Constitution we swear to support and defend.

 

18. Political Will: The Most Crucial Element in Foreign Affairs

19fortyfive.com · by Jason Hyland · June 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Americans are no longer the lone Atlas astride the globe. They have real competition. Despite having fearsome military capabilities, the Soviet Union never even competed with the United States economically, and lacked the soft power of Hollywood. America is still the greatest Superpower but its relative power has changed dramatically – no longer is half of the world’s GDP from the United States, now it is less than one-quarter. America still faster than the other athletes on the field, but can no longer assume it will always prevail if it puts substantial resources into the test. Political will can prove a tough nut to crack. A hard-nosed calculation of political has become even more important – the United States – and all nations — should conserve its power for those contests in which national security is most affected, and where they have the likelihood of prevailing. Americans can continue to use up their energy on promoting those values where there is strong resistance, if we accept the cost to us – at least our public should know that cost – and to the people we are seeking to help.

In this tough post- post-Cold War world, the United States faces a very different strategic environment, and sometimes people shrug at this Atlas. A keen appreciation for political will be essential so the United States can decide where to put its resources, where to place its bets, how it can best share those values with the world, how to be successful in the long run.

 

19.  The Conspiracy Theory of Society

realclearscience.com · by Ross Pomeroy

I still find it incredible that 15% of Americans actually believe these QAnon conspiracy theories.

 

20. Special Operations News Update - Tuesday, June 1, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · June 1, 2021

 

------------

 

“Your first task as a strategist is to widen your concept of the enemy, to include in that group those who are working against you, thwarting you, even in subtle ways.”

- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies Of War

 

“Anyone who has ever studied the history of American diplomacy, especially military diplomacy, knows that you might start in a war with certain things on your mind as a purpose of what you are doing, but in the end, you found yourself fighting for entirely different things that you had never thought of before ... In other words, war has a momentum of its own and it carries you away from all thoughtful intentions when you get into it. Today, if we went into Iraq, like the president would like us to do, you know where you begin. You never know where you are going to end.”

- George F. Kennan

 

“If you hate a person, then you’re defeated by them.“ 

- Confucius

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea no longer pursues unification through revolution in S. Korea

2. Kim Jong Un gets new second-in-command in major changes to North Korea's ruling party

3. N.K. leader's powerful sister likely to fill new 'first secretary' post in case of emergency: expert

4. Appointment of U.S. point man on N. Korea signals readiness for dialogue with Pyongyang: Sherman

5. Student activists again burn Japanese flag in Seoul over Dokdo

6. Meet the new No. 2 in North Korea

7. Ex-USFK chief Brooks hasn't been offered ambassador post in S. Korea: aide

8. North Korea acquired two new oil tankers last year, report says

9. Lifting of missile guidelines leads to no change in U.S. defense commitment: Pentagon

10. Korea's role in infrastructure investment for stronger Indo-Pacific

11. S. Korea unveils homegrown space rocket for first time

12. The Real North Korea Foreign Policy Joe Biden Needs to Implement

13. Long Overdue Compensation for Korean War Veterans

14. Foreign Ministry summons senior Japanese ambassador to protest ‘Dokdo provocations’

15. Korea's business leaders call on Moon to free jailed Samsung boss Lee

16. Summit - step toward strategic clarity?

 

1. N. Korea no longer pursues unification through revolution in S. Korea

Hani

Perfect. Political Warfare with Juche characteristics. So much to unpack here.

This is already having the regime's desired effect on Twitter and among Korea watchers. It is almost as if the regime is reading our writings and our. criticism of the regime's nature, objectives, and strategy and i deliberately trying to undermine our legitimacy! Already the comments are that the north has changed its spots. It is no longer a scorpion and has in fact changed its nature!  

This plays right into Moon's vision for his peace agenda and is designed to drive a wedge in the alliance by supporting the Moon administration's naive view that Kim Jong-un supports his vision of peace and reconciliation against the Biden administration's realistic view of the existential threat the regime poses to South Korea and the global threat the regime poses from its nuclear weapons and missiles, to it cyber capabilities, to its global illicit activities. 

This may be designed to make the Biden administration policy dead on arrival but trying to take away ROK support for the new policy by giving the appearance the regime has given up its revolutionary unification objective and strategy.

The omission of these concepts and the shift from military first politics to a so-called focus on the people is excellent political warfare. It is creating a perception of a change in the behavior and outlook of the regime (a regime change! :-)) that supports the (naive) belief that the regime seeks to negotiate in good faith and act as a responsible member of the international community.

Before I accept the regime is no longer the scorpion and has been able to change its nature, I would like to see the nK Constitution changed to reflect the north is no longer a revolutionary state that seeks to complete the revolution by unifying the peninsula and ridding it of foreign influence. And if the regime is really jettisoning these concepts I want to see them purged from the 80 years worth of documents, books, memoirs, speeches, etc. This is tantamount to an admission that everything the regime has pursued for the last 80 years was wrong. Hard to believe the regime would ever admit it was wrong.

The bottom line is we should not be duped by the regime's political warfare. I have to admit that this is an excellent psychological operation and is designed to appeal to specific target audiences who will (and already are) swallow this hook, line, and sinker. I can already hear the personal attacks of "I told you so." "See north Korea is good afterall." "It is just US policy that has been the problem." 

 

2. Kim Jong Un gets new second-in-command in major changes to North Korea's ruling party

CNN · by Yoonjung Seo and Joshua Berlinger

CNN is focusing on the new "2IC" but does mention the change to the party rules and the omission of revolution and the shift to a "people-first" policy (or politics? - We should know that despite the words Songun or Military First Politics will never be abandoned.

 

3. N.K. leader's powerful sister likely to fill new 'first secretary' post in case of emergency: expert

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 2, 2021

It has been about a year since we have talked about succession in north Korea (recall all the rumors of KJU's demise during the front end of the COVID pandemic when he was out of sight for some time). Notice the comment on the "Paektu bloodline" below.

But there are other reports (to include from Yonhap)that this position has been filled. Bradley Martin profiles Jo Yong Won (with the caveat if reports get it right). 

Excerpt: “Jo Yong-won, a close aide to Kim who was speculated to have been elected to the post, is unlikely to take up the position because he is not part of the Kim family or the "Paekdu bloodline," according to Lee.

"We cannot completely rule out the possibility of Jo, but the deputy post appears to be aimed more at securing regime stability for the successor," he said.

 

4. Appointment of U.S. point man on N. Korea signals readiness for dialogue with Pyongyang: Sherman

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 2, 2021

Personnel is policy. And in this case the Ambassador was most likely at the center of the policy review and surely had a large hand in crafting the policy. He has the experience, the credibility and the reputation and he has engaged with north Korea to include in preparation for and during the Singapore summit. He is probably the only one in the current administration who was part of the Singapore summit. (and note he participated in the coordination for the summit - to include travel to Pyongyang - while he was the Ambassador to the Philippines. So he should not have any issue multi-tasking in his current roles. And we should also know he is backed up by a strong Korea team of professionals.) 

But the key point is the Biden administration is ready to talk. It is up to KJU.

 

5. Student activists again burn Japanese flag in Seoul over Dokdo

en.yna.co.kr · by 유청모 · June 2, 2021

The challenge continues. History and emotion trumps national security and national prosperity for some.

 

6.  Meet the new No. 2 in North Korea

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin · June 1, 2021

A useful profile from Bradley Martin. Note his caveat - "if reports are correct." What is the shelf-life for a No. 2 in north Korea? Not a job I would want to have.

 

7. Ex-USFK chief Brooks hasn't been offered ambassador post in S. Korea: aide

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · June 2, 2021

In normal times I would say General Brooks would be an excellent choice. He not only has the knowledge, he has first hand experience, and he is very well respected in Korea.

But given the friction in civil-military relations and the current administration's views on military personnel in civilian positions (SECDEF is the exception to the administration's possibly unspoken policy of not putting too many former military personnel in political appointee positions). I don't think we will see a former military leader tapped for an ambassador job.

I also think that appointing a former general would send a message the Biden administration would not want to send. it might be (mis)interpreted by some as a "militarization" of our Korea policy.

But if I were asked for a recommendation, and if we were not going to appoint a career Foreign Service Officer as ambassador, I would offer General Tilelli for the Ambassador to the ROK based on his decades of experience and the high esteem in which Koreans hold him.

 

8. North Korea acquired two new oil tankers last year, report says

UPI · by Thomas Maresca · June 2, 2021

Excerpts: “North Korea uses a variety of methods to receive illicit supplies, including ship-to-ship transfers and disguising the identities of its vessels through swapped profiles or manipulation of automatic identification system transmissions, the U.N. Panel said.

Two of the three new tankers were previously owned by South Korean companies, according to the CSIS report. The ships, called the Sin Phyong 5 and Kwang Chon 2, made their way from South Korean brokers to individuals or companies in China, the report said.

The third, the Wol Bong San, had previously been sailing under a Sierra Leone flag and was transferred via Hong Kong-based Baili Shipping and Trading. The company has been tied to North Korea's illicit weapons trade as well as its coal and oil smuggling networks.

 

9. Lifting of missile guidelines leads to no change in U.S. defense commitment: Pentagon

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 2, 2021

I concur with the headline in that the termination of the missile guidelines will in no way lessen the US commitment to the defense of Korea.

But this article is based on an unusual or confusing exchange in yesterday's press conference. Based on the wording in the question I assume the journalist was from the Korean media. I think the law he or she must have been referring to is likely the NDAA which established a floor of 28,500 US troops stationed in Korea.

Q: Thank you, John. I have a question about the United States defensive law for the South Korea. How will you do the end of missile lines on the South Korea fact that the U.S. defense law for the South Korea? Will there be any change to the U.S. law (inaudible)?

MR. KIRBY: I'm not aware of any changes. The – nothing about this changes the alliance between South Korea and the United States or our commitments to that alliance, which as you know, is a defensive alliance.

Q: But any -- you have any schedule to reduce the defense role for the South Korea because of you lifted missile guidelines and taken –

MR. KIRBY: I know of no such changes in the offing.

 

10.  Korea's role in infrastructure investment for stronger Indo-Pacific

The Korea Times · Song Kyung-jin · June 1, 2021

Indications of alignment of the US INDOPACIFIC Strategy and the ROK New Southern Policy. 

Note the comments on the AIIB. I will leave it to the economic, financial, and development experts to comment.

Excerpts: “Korea is a democracy with a fairly recent development success story, and it respects the rules-based international order. It thus can relate with the developing Indo-Pacific better than its western counterparts.

Also, it was Korea that brought development into the multilateral G20 agenda in 2010 with nine pillars including infrastructure and governance, and so on. So, it was dubbed a "Korea initiative" or the "Seoul Development Initiative" then. While the objectives of NPS built on the Seoul initiative are laudable, it failed to succeed multilateralism enshrined in it. Going bilateral with limited resources is difficult to sustain; therefore, it should diversify into pluri-lateral and multilateral programs with like-minded partners. The same is true of Korea's other ASEAN initiatives.

ASEAN has become critically important on Korea's economic and diplomatic fronts in its endeavor to reduce its dependence on China. As a consequence, ASEAN now is Korea's second largest trading partner with a trading volume of $153.4 billion as of 2019, only next to China. It is Korea's third largest investment destination next to the US and EU, with $9.54 billion in 2019. It is also Korea's largest overseas construction market, growing to $8 billion in total orders in 2019.

Pension funds with deep pockets can set a good example as a long-term investor.

 There is a lack of long-term investors, public or private, in the region due to various reasons, such as the regional savings invested elsewhere including in the US Treasuries and the regulatory constraints. Korea's National Pension Fund, world's third largest, can and should make more and bolder investments in infrastructure bilaterally and multilaterally. Multilateral development banks such as the ADB, the World Bank and even the AIIB are good partners to work with. Alarmists may instantly flash a yellow card to the idea of inviting the AIIB. But they should not forget that the region needs to pool resources available as far as possible and that the AIIB is not China-owned but a multilateral organization run by experts of diverse nationalities.

 

11. S. Korea unveils homegrown space rocket for first time

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · June 1, 2021

Can the South Korea put communications satellites in geosynchronous orbit over the peninsula to support military command and control? 

 

12. The Real North Korea Foreign Policy Joe Biden Needs to Implement

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 1, 2021

I do not think the Biden administration treats diplomatic relations as a reward.  

For the Biden administration diplomacy is at the heart of foreign policy and alliances are at the heart of diplomacy.

I think the Biden administration would support diplomatic relations with the north (and I would too for myriad reasons to include potential increased access and influence). But I seriously doubt the regime is ready for diplomatic relations or even establishing liaison offices in Pyongyang and Washington. It would bring too much access to outside information that would be a threat to the regime. But by all means put it on the agenda and see how KJU reacts.

I also think the Biden administration is willing to provide humanitarian assistance to the neediest Koreans in the north. But we should be under no illusion that such assistance is a carrot for the regime. At best it removes some burden from the regime to divert resources to the lower classes of north Korean society. At worst the regime is able to divert and exploit international aid for uses other than caring for the people. Kim is not really concerned with the welfare of the Korean people in the north expect to the point where it may help thwart resistance to the regime.

As an aside, one thing Mr. Bandow does not mention is north Korean human rights. I think the Biden administration is going to have a central focus on human rights (not only in north Korea but globally). So any discussion of diplomatic relations must include a focus on human rights. And of course that is a threat to the regime. But we cannot neglect human rights based on the fantasy that doing so will bring about negotiations toward denuclearization.

 

13. Long Overdue Compensation for Korean War Veterans

keia.org · May 21, 2021

This is for all those who study special operations in Korea. This report is discussing Korean partisans who fought under the UN flag and were never compensated for their service.

 

14. Foreign Ministry summons senior Japanese ambassador to protest ‘Dokdo provocations’

donga.com · June 1, 2021

Unless President Moon (and his successor) and Prime Minister Suga (and his successor) decide to prioritize national security and national prosperity while pledging to manage the historic issues in good faith we are never going to see effective trilateral corporation and relations.

 

15. Korea's business leaders call on Moon to free jailed Samsung boss Lee

nationalpost.com

 

16. Summit - step toward strategic clarity?

The Korea Times · by Ahn Ho-young  · June 1, 2021

Important analysis from our good friend Ambassador Ahn.

He provides a note of caution here:

“The ministers were totally silent on Korea's commitment to a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, which made quite a few commentators wonder out loud if the Korean government had already started to water down the importance of the commitment it made in Washington, D.C. just a short while ago.

I hope this is not the case. Trust is a much appreciated commodity in any relationship, especially between security partners. I have long argued that the so-called strategic ambiguity, meaning frequently shifting position depending upon issues and the calculation of short-term interests, is not sustainable, because it will only deepen the impression that Korea is the weakest link in the Asia-Pacific and make Korea lose credibility with both the U.S. and China.

Whatever the motivation may have been, the recent Moon-Biden joint statement shows that the government made the right choice in clarifying its position on the Korea-U.S. alliance. Receding from the choice is not an option.”

 

--------------

 

“Your first task as a strategist is to widen your concept of the enemy, to include in that group those who are working against you, thwarting you, even in subtle ways.”

- Robert Greene, The 33 Strategies Of War

 

“Anyone who has ever studied the history of American diplomacy, especially military diplomacy, knows that you might start in a war with certain things on your mind as a purpose of what you are doing, but in the end, you found yourself fighting for entirely different things that you had never thought of before ... In other words, war has a momentum of its own and it carries you away from all thoughtful intentions when you get into it. Today, if we went into Iraq, like the president would like us to do, you know where you begin. You never know where you are going to end.”

- George F. Kennan

 

“If you hate a person, then you’re defeated by them.“ 

- Confucius

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 153rd National Memorial Day Observance

2.  A Siege, a Supply Run and a Descent Into a Decade-Old Battle

3. Public swarms Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day for the first time since the pandemic

4. US special forces to train Taiwan soldiers after annual war-games

5. The U.S. Air Force Wants to Mothball Over 200 Aircraft. We Have the List.

6. QAnon conspiracy theories infect American churches

7. Former Trump advisor Michael Flynn said the US should have a coup like Myanmar, where the military overthrew the democratically elected government

8. The Future of Afghanistan Hinges on American Dollars, Not Troops

9. The Necessary Art of Talking to Other Nations By Max Hastings

10. Three Big Questions Biden’s National Security Strategy Has to Answer

11. Time for a ‘Semi-Quad’ Alliance

12. Biden’s US foreign policy commitment to democracy called into question

13. Facebook says U.S. is the top target of disinformation campaigns

14. Huawei ex-exec on trial, accused of spying for China

15. #Reviewing Exercise of Power (Book by Robert Gates, Review by Daniel Scheeringa)

16.  USSOCOM contracts Palantir for enterprise data management software

17. Sibling Rivalry: Military Services in High-Stakes Tussle Over Long-Range Fires

18. Kamala Harris' Navy

 

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 153rd National Memorial Day Observance

Office of the President · May 31, 2021

Powerful remarks on democracy by the President.  

 

2. A Siege, a Supply Run and a Descent Into a Decade-Old Battle

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · May 31, 2021

More powerful reporting form TM Gibbons-Neff.

 

3. Public swarms Arlington National Cemetery on Memorial Day for the first time since the pandemic

The Washington Post · by Tara Bahrampour and Annie Linskey · May 31, 2021

 

4. US special forces to train Taiwan soldiers after annual war-games

19fortyfive.com · by Ryan Pickrell · May 31, 2021

We should observe for the CCP propaganda (or other) response, if any.

 

6. QAnon conspiracy theories infect American churches

Axios · by Mike Allen

This is an unbelievable statistic. It is incredible that 15% of Americans agree with this QAnon belief. The revisionist and rogue powers cannot believe the effects of propaganda on such a large number of Americans. This simply emboldens them to even more aggressively execute influence operations.

That stunning window into the country's congregations followed a major poll, out last week: 15% of Americans, the poll found, agree with the QAnon contention that "the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation."

 

7. Former Trump advisor Michael Flynn said the US should have a coup like Myanmar, where the military overthrew the democratically elected government

Business Insider · by Kelsey Vlamis

I have no words.

Former Trump advisor Michael Flynn said the US should have a coup like Myanmar, where the military overthrew the democratically elected government

 

8. The Future of Afghanistan Hinges on American Dollars, Not Troops

warontherocks.com · by Dominic Tierney · June 1, 2021

All about the benjamins?

Conclusion: “A U.S. aid program to Afghanistan of around $4–5 billion per year is affordable — even indefinitely so. The figure equates to less than one percent of the U.S. defense budget. Indeed, to put the number in perspective, Washington spends over $300 million every year just on military bands. The aid program is also much cheaper than deploying U.S. troops. Washington can pay for around 50 to 100 Afghan soldiers for the same cost as stationing a single American soldier there (about $1 million per year). The aid program is only a tiny fraction of the expenditure in Afghanistan a decade ago.

Continuing aid to Afghanistan does not guarantee success, but curtailing aid guarantees failure. $4 billion is a lot of money. But it buys Washington a reasonable chance at creating military deadlock in Afghanistan, forcing the Taliban to make peace, and avoiding a repeat of Saigon 1975, with all the associated trauma and recrimination.

 

9. The Necessary Art of Talking to Other Nations By Max Hastings

Bloomberg · by Max Hastings · May 30, 2021

Excerpts: “A huge problem for big-power diplomacy is that, for it to work, the main actors must accept a stated dispensation as legitimate. Instead, in today’s Middle East, Iran seeks to achieve a regional hegemony which the U.S. and other Western nations find unacceptable. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is bent on forging a Greater Israel at the expense of the Palestinians, which only the U.S., among major powers, has (until this month, at least) appeared content to indulge. Meanwhile, China seeks to assert a supremacy in the Indo-Pacific to which few of its neighbors, never mind Washington, are prepared to acquiesce.

But the talking must happen, the attempts be made to find common ground even on lesser issues if the big ones are intractable. I once met a diplomat who spent much of the 1960s representing Britain at international arms-control talks in Geneva. He argued that, while superficially the interminable meetings were futile, with the Soviets churning out position papers that never seemed to change, the very fact of the meetings helped to avert war.

I think he was right — the isolationists who seek simply to build walls and hide behind them put at risk any advance or even stability in human affairs. Fear has been the dominant motive in foreign affairs since the beginning of time. Dialogue — diplomacy — has a critical role to play in managing and dispelling it.

 

10. Three Big Questions Biden’s National Security Strategy Has to Answer

The National Interest · by James Jay Carafano · May 29, 2021

The three questions:

How to Handle Economic Relations with China?

How to Do Battle in the Gray Zones?

How to Balance Hard- and Soft Power?

 

11. Time for a ‘Semi-Quad’ Alliance

thediplomat.com · by Che-Jen Wang · May 28, 2021

"Semi-Quad"? Hope that is not the equivalent of "semi-pro" in international relations. (apologies for the attempt at humor).

Excerpts: “Therefore, it is clear that the U.S. government alone cannot stop China from advancing its semiconductor industry. Given the small portion of semiconductors made in the United States, the current U.S. policy neither limits China from the acquisition of high-sensitive chips and technology, nor outweighs Xi Jinping’s call for technology autonomy in semiconductor production. The governments of the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea must coordinate efforts to respond to aggressive tactics from China.

Given that different semiconductor technologies are scattered among the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, and the degree of technology protection among manufacturers may differ, it is difficult to fully prevent advanced semiconductor technology from entering China. If the Biden administration wants to fully contain the high-speed progress of semiconductor technology in China, further containment policies and multi-country coordination are needed. Unless the U.S. can form a “semi-Quad” alliance, a mechanism like Quad or Five Eyes, and coordinate policies with Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, fair competition and resilient trade in semiconductors will be difficult to realize.

 

12. Biden’s US foreign policy commitment to democracy called into question

Financial Times · by Katrina Manson · May 30, 2021

This was published before his Memorial Day address.

 

13. Facebook says U.S. is the top target of disinformation campaigns

Axios · by Sara Fischer

No surprise. The US must be the easiest targets in the world for disinformation campaigns.

Graphic at the link

 

14. Huawei ex-exec on trial, accused of spying for China

AP · by Monica Scislowska     

Excerpts: “The Pole is suspected of helping him establish contacts and providing him with documents. Some observers say the documents were public and not classified.

The trial is expected to take months and there is no date yet for the final verdict.

Huawei declined to comment because the case was ongoing. It has repeatedly denied the U.S. allegations but since the pair’s arrest, Huawei’s fortunes in Europe have tumbled because of the U.S. campaign. Countries such as Britain, Sweden and Bulgaria h ave banned Huawei equipment from their networks and others such as France say they favor homegrown rivals like Ericsson and Nokia for security reasons.

Huawei gear, which has been effectively blocked by the U.S. since 2012, has also been shunned by Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

 

15. #Reviewing Exercise of Power (Book by Robert Gates, Review by Daniel Scheeringa)

thestrategybridge.org · by Daniel Scheeringa · June 1, 2021

Another book for the "to read pile."

Conclusion: Gates does an excellent job of examining the ways America can exercise power around the world, some coercive, most non-coercive. That examination forms the basis of Gates' desire to see America compete with China and Russia through non-coercive means such as strategic communications and economic development aid. It is a common lament that America lacks a grand strategy, or even the capacity to form such a strategy. However, any strategy, no matter how brilliant, is only as effective as the means used to implement it. Whatever ends America chooses to pursue in the future, its leaders and strategists will be well served by reading Gates' book.

 

16. USSOCOM contracts Palantir for enterprise data management software

army-technology.com

Excerpts: “Our partnership with USSOCOM was one of our first in the US military, and we are honoured to keep providing technology that gets the job done while we partner on the future of what is possible.”

The company’s technology enables real-time collaboration across USSOCOM and its allies.

It gives commanders a global scale situational awareness, bringing AI technology to the battlefield operations.

The technology also enhances the ability to respond to ‘near-peer threats’.

Palantir’s software is used from planning phase, to review coordination and approval stage, and runs through battle tracking of the execution of the actual mission.

Last November, the US Army chose Palantir Technologies to provide one of two prototype contracts for the Common Data Fabric and Data Security solution.

 

17. Sibling Rivalry: Military Services in High-Stakes Tussle Over Long-Range Fires

nationaldefensemagazine.org · by Jon Harper

If multiple services are developing long range precision fires it would seem we need a joint warfighting concept sooner rather than later. There would appear to be so many questions to ask about targeting, de-confliction, ISR capabilities for targeting - should various components and task forces or services have independent capabilities or should long range precision fires be under the control of a single operational HQ and authority (e.g., the JFACC/CFACC)? In my view long range precision fires will probably be among the most important concepts in conventional warfighting for the foreseeable future.

Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John Hyten said it would be premature to conduct a review now.

“We’ll have the fruition of the Joint Warfighting Concept in the next decade. And then once we know how to do that and we’ve demonstrated that, we may not be organized correctly, we may not have the right roles and responsibilities,” he said in February during an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But why the heck would you stop and try to figure that out when you actually don’t know the answer?”

 

18. Kamala Harris' Navy

Washington Examiner · by Byron York · May 31, 2021

Strong criticism. I think most of the media focused on the joke that did not land in her speech rather than the substance.

Excerpts: “But Harris paid particular attention to "a very real threat to our national security" — climate change. "You are ocean engineers who will help navigate ships through thinning ice," Harris said in her only acknowledgment that the Navy has any sort of relationship with the world's oceans. "You are mechanical engineers who will help reinforce sinking bases. You are electrical engineers who will soon help convert solar and wind energy into power, convert solar and wind energy into combat power. And just ask any Marine today, would she rather carry 20 pounds of batteries or a rolled-up solar panel? And I am positive she will tell you a solar panel, and so would he."

Left almost entirely undiscussed was the more basic mission of the Navy and the Marines. They fight wars. Heavily armed, they protect U.S. interests and shipping and project America's power at sea and around the world. They have done it, with great valor and sometimes at enormous personal sacrifice for sailors and Marines, for more than 200 years. Harris mostly left the war-fighting core of the Navy and Marine mission out of her speech.

...

And so on. Biden and Pence framed their speeches differently, but each showed a deep appreciation for what the Navy and Marines do. Harris described a much different Navy and Marines, with missions in which fighting is done mostly in a figurative sense, against a threat like climate change. "Ms. Harris' visit was meant to signal that the current White House's relationship with the military had changed since the Trump era," the New York Times reported after the vice president's speech. Indeed it has.

 

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"And on this Memorial Day, we honor their legacy and their sacrifice. Duty, honor, country — they lived for it, they died for it. And we, as a nation, are eternally grateful. You know, America has been forged in the battle and the fires of war. Our freedom and the freedom of innumerable others has been secured by young men and women who answered the call of history and gave everything in the service of an idea: the idea of America. It’s the greatest idea in the long history of humankind. An idea that we’re all created equal in the image of Almighty God. That we’re all entitled to dignity, as my father would say, and respect, decency, and honor. Love of neighbor. They’re not empty words, but the vital, beating heart of our nation. And that democracy must be defended at all costs, for democracy makes all this possible. Democracy — that’s the soul of America, and I believe it’s a soul worth fighting for, and so do you; a soul worth dying for. Heroes who lie in eternal peace in this beautiful place, this sacred place, they believed that too. The soul of America is animated by the perennial battle between our worst instincts — which we’ve seen of late — and our better angels. Between “Me first” and “We the People.” Between greed and generosity, cruelty and kindness, captivity and freedom."

-President Joseph Biden, Arlington National Cemetery, Memorial Day 2021

 

“By and large, strategy comes into play where there is actual or potential conflict, when interests collide and forms of resolution are required. This is why a strategy is much more than a plan. A plan supposes a sequence of events that allows one to move with confidence from one state of affairs to another. Strategy is required when one might frustrate those plans.”

- Lawrence Freedman, Strategy: A History

 

“Without a word this uniform also whispers of freezing troops, injured bodies, and Americans left forever in foreign fields. It documents every serviceman’s courage, who by accepting this uniform, promises the one gift he truly has to give: his life. I wear my uniform for the heritage of sacrifice it represents and more. I wear my uniform with pride, for it represents the greatest nation of free people in the world.”

– Captain Karen Dorman Kimmel