News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1. CIA Names David Marlowe to Run Espionage Operations

2. Does Biden Have the Right Naval Strategy to Take on Russia and China? History Has An Answer.

3. Biden's cyber budget good, but still insufficient to meet the threats

4. In the Iran nuclear crisis, the IAEA stands alone

5. Russia, US Will Launch Arms Control Talks To Avoid ‘Accidental War’

6. A Better Way to Measure Returns on U.S. Security Cooperation Investments

7. Rank-and-file soldiers begin Special Forces-style security missions across Indo-Pacific

8. U.S. Needs ‘Combat-Credible’ Forces to Deter China, Nominee Says

9. SecDef OKs Joint Warfighting Concept; Joint Requirements Due Soon

10. Robust, credible and layered missile defense is the foundation of deterrence

11. FDD | Schemes and Subversion: How Bad Actors and Foreign Governments Undermine and Evade Sanctions Regimes

12. FDD | Tehran’s nuclear secrets have been exposed

13. NATO Targets the ‘3 C’s’: China, Cyberattacks and Climate Change

14. Growth of nuclear arsenals ‘a worrisome sign’

15. DroneGun Tactical the ultimate UAV killer

16. FDD | Biden Should Not Lift Sanctions Against Iranian Presidential Candidate Ebrahim Raisi

17. Suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO

18. Lost at Sea: How Two Iranian Warships Are Testing American Mettle

19. NSA cyber director discusses US response, approach to apparent espionage operation

20. Strengthening U.S. Engagement in International Standards Bodies

 

1. CIA Names David Marlowe to Run Espionage Operations

WSJ · by Warren P. Strobel

Excerpts: “Little more is known publicly about Mr. Marlowe’s career. The CIA normally does not publicly disclose its employees’ foreign assignments. CIA officials described him as an Arabic speaker who has spent 20 of his 30 years at the agency in field assignments overseas. His most recent job, they said, was assistant director of the CIA’s Near East Mission Center, which combines operations officers, intelligence analysts and other specialists to focus on the Middle East.

...

“One of the big challenges today [for] operational tradecraft is ubiquitous technical surveillance, the capacity of a number of our adversaries to make it much more complicated to conduct traditional tradecraft,” he said.

 

2. Does Biden Have the Right Naval Strategy to Take on Russia and China? History Has An Answer.

19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · June 16, 2021

Conclusion: “Take it from William Pitt: a well-armed peace is cheaper and less hazardous than war.

The British shipbuilding maxim of which Mahan writes implies that the United States must maintain sea forces able to contend with the combined sea power of China and Russia. These two opponents have formed an armed entente and thus constitute latter-day counterparts to France and Spain in the days of Pitt and George III. It’s prudent to set a two-power standard—much as Britain did in its imperial heyday—and measure the U.S. against Sino-Russian maritime might. If U.S. sea forces aren’t up to that standard, America and its allies are standing into danger.

Let’s not suffer a British fate.

 

3. Biden's cyber budget good, but still insufficient to meet the threats

The Hill · by Mark Montgomery· June 15, 2021

Excerpts: “In past years, moderate cybersecurity budget increases left the United States treading water amid a rising tide of ransomware attacks, cyber espionage incidents, and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities. The Biden administration is headed in the right direction but is too narrowly focused on what it calls “investments tailored to respond to lessons learned from the SolarWinds incident.”

America needs proactive, forward-looking investment that both mitigates the past year’s problems and prevents next year’s.

In the world of policymaking, real priorities do not come from pronouncements; they come from budgets. Even as the White House’s budget moves in the right direction, Congress will need to make additions to firmly establish national cybersecurity as a strategic priority.

 

4. In the Iran nuclear crisis, the IAEA stands alone

The Hill · by Andrea Stricker and Behnam Ben Taleblu· June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “Director-General Grossi has declared that he views outstanding safeguards issues as a present, and not a past matter, but the IAEA board, the 35-member elected body assigned to hold states accountable to their NPT safeguards obligations, may not help.

The board, under pressure from the U.S. and Europe not to disrupt JCPOA negotiations, yet again withheld a resolution — formal admonishment against Iran’s non-cooperation — at the June IAEA board meeting. As principal leaders in shoring up the non-proliferation regime, the U.S. and E3 (France, Britain, and Germany) must lead on resolutions for them to have any chance of success.

In a greater twist of irony, should world powers re-establish the JCPOA, they will effectively block the IAEA board (and themselves) from holding Iran accountable to its non-proliferation obligations. The board’s main recourse is to refer a non-compliant state to the UN Security Council (UNSC) for sanctions. The JCPOA obstructs UNSC sanctions against Iran because under the terms of its implementing resolution, 2231, all UN sanctions against Iran are lifted. To penalize the Islamic Republic, the UNSC would first need to bring down 2231.

As a result, the current nuclear crisis is likely to repeat itself in a handful of years as JCPOA restrictions sunset, if a military conflict or regional proliferation cascade do not take place first. To prevent all three, the Biden administration should resist the siren song of JCPOA resurrection and first empower the IAEA to do its job. If no baseline for Iran’s past and present nuclear activities can be established, there is no foundation for a deal.

 

5. Russia, US Will Launch Arms Control Talks To Avoid ‘Accidental War’

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

And this: “At the summit, Biden and Putin also discussed how to protect national assets from cyberattacks. Biden said he gave the Russian president a list of 16 critical infrastructure items, including the power grid and water system, that should be “off the table” for any cyberattack.

When Biden was asked about what consequences he threatened if Putin went after any of those protected areas, he said, “I pointed out to him that we have significant cyber capabilities and he knows it….If in fact they violate these basic norms, we will respond.”

 

6. A Better Way to Measure Returns on U.S. Security Cooperation Investments

defenseone.com · by Zack Gold, Ralph Espach, Douglas Jackson, and Nicholas Bradford

One way we might achieve better effects is if we were to align all security cooperation activities and related activities. We need to have a nested strategy for security cooperation orchestrating the actions and activities and campaign plans for supporting security assistance, foreign assistance, foreign military sales. international military education and training, foreign internal defense, security sector reform, defense institution building, etc.

Excerpts: “We agree that monitoring the outputs and outcomes of security cooperation activities and reporting them clearly and concisely is necessary, but we find the return-on-investment approach to be the wrong tool for the job. A better solution is a mixed-methods approach that combines quantitative and qualitative data. Because security cooperation outcomes are not financial gains, we view the “returns” on security cooperation investment as outcomes in alignment with strategic objectives. To measure the effects of these activities properly, we propose a framework that focuses on strategic objectives, alignment, and outcomes.

A framework focused on these elements allows military commands to compare findings from individual security cooperation engagements or to compare subsequent iterations of an annual engagement. Our framework includes a quantitative component and a qualitative one. First, we compute a quantitative alignment score, which is a combination of partner participation and strategic objectives addressed by a security cooperation activity. The objective alignment score is as simple as tallying the number of command strategic objectives addressed by the security cooperation activity. The combination of the partner participation score and the objective alignment score produces a numeric value of alignment with strategic objectives.

Our framework’s qualitative outcomes assessment ascertains the success of the security cooperation activity in increasing capacity or changing partner behaviors to meet objectives. This process includes defining the desired outcomes of strategic objectives, collecting periodic data on indicators of those outcomes, and concisely summarizing findings. Partner militaries, U.S. embassies, and military commands already collect much of the required data—though not systematically. Using this framework, the command could assign personnel to pull this information, or task an external organization to conduct the data collection.

By combining these quantitative and qualitative components into a single tool, our assessment framework generates a display of security cooperation activities’ strategic objectives alignment, progress toward achieving objectives, and overall assessment. Though not as simple as return on investment, it displays far more—and more relevant—data for security cooperation in an easily readable table that a command can share with key stakeholders at regular intervals.

 

7.  Rank-and-file soldiers begin Special Forces-style security missions across Indo-Pacific

Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · June 17, 2021

No one can tell me there is not a conspiracy to replace US Special Forces. I am going to go all QAnon on this (note sarcasm!)

But this is a real problem and a misunderstanding of the mission and value of US Special Forces:

It’s a task that has, in the past, been the preserve of the Green Berets, said Chief Warrant Officer Jason Sosnicki, a maintainer and member of the 5th SFAB who deployed to Papua New Guinea in May for a six-week mission.

“Green Berets work with [partner nations’] special forces,” he said by phone Wednesday from Port Moresby. “We partner with normal infantry, engineers, artillery and logistics elements.”

Special Forces’ elite nature means they can deploy for only a short time, limiting the number of foreign troops that can work with, he said.

US Special Forces do not just train "people that look like them" ( as one general officer once said in a briefing in DC - meaning SF only trains other elite units).  I spent a lot of time training, advising, and assisting units other than special operations and that is true for most SF soldiers.

I am not discounting the importance of the SFABs. There is an important role for them. But we need to use the right forces for the right missions and it is not simply a conventional force - SOF divide.  

 

8. U.S. Needs ‘Combat-Credible’ Forces to Deter China, Nominee Says

Bloomberg · by Peter Martin · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “Until last week, Ratner led a China task force at the Pentagon aimed at reorienting America’s military to better compete with Beijing. Based on the task force’s recommendations, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin issued a directive “designed to focus departmental processes and procedures and better help department leaders contribute to whole-of-government efforts to address the challenge from China.”

Ratner served as deputy national security advisor to then-Vice President Biden from 2015 to 2017. He also held positions at the State Department, the Senate and the Center for a New American Security.

 

9. SecDef OKs Joint Warfighting Concept; Joint Requirements Due Soon

breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens · June 16, 2021

We are a platform centric military.

 

10. Robust, credible and layered missile defense is the foundation of deterrence

Defense News · by Punch Moulton and Francis Mahon · June 16, 2021

Excerpt: "Today, our defense rests on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system, or GMD, and its 44 interceptors. But that alone is not going to be adequate to deal with the threats of 2027. Defending our homeland is vital. Looking to the next decade, we need to stay ahead of our threats. Our concerns are four-fold: technology, numbers, layers and sensors."

 

11. FDD | Schemes and Subversion: How Bad Actors and Foreign Governments Undermine and Evade Sanctions Regimes

fdd.org · by Eric B. Lorber · June 16, 2021

The 18 page statement can be downloaded here.

The video of the testimony can be viewed a this link: 

 

12. FDD | Tehran’s nuclear secrets have been exposed

fdd.org · by Clifford D. May · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “At a minimum, Iran has a coordinated set of activities related to building a nuclear weapon,” Mr. Albright writes. “At worst, the weaponization team has already conducted a cold test, fulfilled its post-Amad goal of building an industrial prototype, and is regularly practicing and improving their nuclear weaponization craft under various covers or in clandestine locations.”

Which leads to this conclusion: “A reinstated JCPOA combined with less than vigorous IAEA verification of Iran’s military sites, of the type that existed from 2015 until 2018, appears particularly unstable and dangerous.”

 

13. NATO Targets the ‘3 C’s’: China, Cyberattacks and Climate Change

Bloomberg · by James Stavridis · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “Given that the nations collectively spend more than $1 trillion on their defense establishments; operate 28,000 military aircraft and 800 capital warships; and have seven million troops (active and reserve) under command, this will be significant.

The summit also hit some lingering issues as well, with plenty of discussion about Russian aggression, particularly against NATO non-member partners Ukraine and Georgia; Afghanistan, where the withdrawal from that 20-year mission will require more financial and diplomatic support; and effective missile defenses on both sides of the Atlantic.

But the real thrust of the 2021 summit could be summarized as the three C’s: China, cybersecurity and climate. The times are changing, and NATO is changing with them.

 

14. Growth of nuclear arsenals ‘a worrisome sign’

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 16, 2021

 

15.  DroneGun Tactical the ultimate UAV killer

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · June 16, 2021

 

16.  FDD | Biden Should Not Lift Sanctions Against Iranian Presidential Candidate Ebrahim Raisi

fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig · June 16, 2021

Excerpt: "Since Executive Order 13876 targets malign Iranian actors and activities both abroad and at home, its application to Raisi and to other senior Iranian officials is a legitimate use of non-nuclear sanctions. To combat the continued misconduct of the regime – both externally and internally – the Biden administration should refrain from lifting any non-nuclear sanctions on Iran, especially on Raisi."

 

17. Suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO

The National Interest · by David Adesnik · June 15, 2021

We must get tough with these international organizations and root out the malign influence of these authoritarian countries that seek to undermine the international order.

Conclusion: “The bipartisan path forward should proceed from the premise that engagement is essential precisely because the WHO and other multilateral organizations are strategic grounds in the struggle against U.S. adversaries. Biden’s interim national security strategy hints as much but shies away from saying it openly. The document warns of an “authoritarian agenda” for manipulating the UN system, then adds, “In a world of deepening rivalry, we will not cede this vital terrain.”

A push to suspend Syria and Russia from the WHO will require substantial effort, but the administration should not see it as a burden. Rather, it is part and parcel of a necessary campaign to shape the multilateral playing field by targeting the real opponents of reform.

 

18. Lost at Sea: How Two Iranian Warships Are Testing American Mettle

thedispatch.com · by Emanuele Ottolenghi

Excerpts: “Events following the Iran deal offer a clear insight into why Iran feels it can dispatch warships to America’s backyard with impunity. The ink was not even dry yet on the JCPOA when Iran began to use its national airline, Iran Air, to move thousands of militia fighters to Syria at the height of its civil war. This was the same airline that, as a major beneficiary of the JCPOA, was about to buy hundreds of Western-made aircraft. Why would Iran jeopardize the nuclear deal and its economic benefits? Because it could. Because it correctly gamed the scenario and anticipated President Obama would not jeopardize what he viewed as a historic diplomatic achievement by acting against the delinquent airline. Tehran knew the U.S. would not push back.

Which brings us back to the two warships. Iran sent them to signal its strength and defiance. It is a challenge to the Biden administration because Tehran, so far correctly, has calculated that the U.S. will do nothing if it thinks it can jeopardize nuclear talks.

Washington should not fall into this trap. The regime in Tehran is not going to walk away from talks that could restore its economic clout—an essential tool in its pursuit of broader global influence. Besides, what is Iran going to do? The U.S. killed Qassem Suleimani, their top general, in January 2020, yet Tehran did little in response.

Tehran needs to know Washington will exact a pound of flesh for its reckless behavior. So far, the Biden administration has given them no reason to think there are any risks involved in provoking Washington. Maybe the two ships will give President Biden an opportunity to reassess his erstwhile inclination to give Tehran a pass.

 

19.  NSA cyber director discusses US response, approach to apparent espionage operation

cyberscoop.com · by Shannon Vavra · June 16, 2021

 

20. Strengthening U.S. Engagement in International Standards Bodies

dayoneproject.org · June 15, 2021

The 28 page report can be download here.

 

-----------------

 

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“If one wanted to crush and destroy a man entirely, to mete out to him the most terrible punishment ... all one would have to do would be to make him do work that was completely and utterly devoid of usefulness and meaning.”

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

 

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. "

- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

1.  'Goodwill' gestures, suspension of joint military drills needed to bring N. Korea to dialogue: experts

2.  New U.S. special envoy for N.K. to visit S. Korea later this week: official

3.  LaCamera to take office as new USFK commander next month

4. North Korea Might Have Up to 50 Nuclear Weapons: Report

5. Note to President Biden: Talk to Kim Jong Un

6. Moon’s Last Chance on North Korea

7. A growing number of South Pyongan Province households are suffering from food shortages

8. Debates arise over call to cancel joint military drills

9. Korea's nuke envoy to hold bilateral, trilateral talks with US, Japanese counterparts

10. N.K. holds key party meeting for second day with focus on economy

11. U.N. discloses thousands of files related to North Korea human rights abuses

12. 'The way to survive': North Korea ramps up recycling amid sanctions and pandemic

13. North Korea Isn't Planning Any Nuclear Weapons Tests Anytime Soon

14. South Korea citizenship law change proposal sparks anti-China backlash

15. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Phone Calls to China and South Korea

 

1. 'Goodwill' gestures, suspension of joint military drills needed to bring N. Korea to dialogue: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 17, 2021

Appeasement.  Moon Chung-in and other such experts are providing dangerous advice. 

And oh by the way, we will not be conducting  Ulchi Freedom Guardian in August.  We have not conducted it for a couple of years now.  We will conduct a Combined Command Post Training event called Dong Maeng 21-2.

If we suspend this training then we may as well start withdrawing US forces because if we cannot train the ROK/US CFC and the subordinate component HQ then we cannot sustain a military alliance.  We have been degrading our training exercises since President Trump unilaterally cancelled Ulchi Freedom Guardian in 2018.  Why haven't the previous cancellations, postponements, and scaling back of training over the past 3 years resulted in any change in regime behavior?  Because Kim does not really care about exercises except that they can be exploited as part of his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy.   He wants combined training halted for specific reasons: weaken the combined military force responsible for deterrence and defense and to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.  

My thoughts on the importance of combined training:

The U.S. Military And South Korea Must Train To Deter North Korea

The North Korea Threat Is Growing. U.S.-South Korea Military Training Must Press Forward.
 

2. New U.S. special envoy for N.K. to visit S. Korea later this week: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · June 16, 2021

A 7 hour flight from Jakarta is better than the 14 hour one from DC and the time zone change is minimal!  :-) 

I think Ambassador Kim has been to Panmunjom enough times over the years so I am not sure why the press or Korean officials mention that he is not expected to visit there. I do not see how a visit to Panmunjom will advance the denuclearization issue.

 

3. LaCamera to take office as new USFK commander next month

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · June 17, 2021

July 2d.

I note in General LaCamera's bio that he was the battalion S3 for 1-506th Infantry at Camp Greaves.  A good unit! :-) 

 

4. North Korea Might Have Up to 50 Nuclear Weapons: Report

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · June 16, 2021

According to SIPRI's new annual report.

 

5. Note to President Biden: Talk to Kim Jong Un

38north.org · by Kenneth B. Dekleva · June 15, 2021

Note the author's bio in the article. 

Very interesting analysis and perspective. Given the author's knowledge and experience we need to pay attention to him.

Here are some of his past writings (and a briefing) on Kim Jong-un;

The Past, Present and Future of Leadership Analysis: Xi, Kim and Putin

The Psychology of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un: The Measure of a Man: Insight from Kenneth Dekleva.

ALL IN THE FAMILY: THE LEADERSHIP STYLES OF KIM IL - SUNG, KIM JONG - I L , AND KIM JONG - U N

Excerpts: “...why can’t he do the same with Chairman Kim, in the search for a durable peace on the Korean Peninsula? Surely President Biden can utilize the 2018 Singapore joint statement and former Special Representative Steve Biegun’s January 2019 speech at Stanford as useful starting points. But this requires that Biden see the world through Chairman Kim’s eyes and psyche. And given his vast foreign policy experience, Biden knows that in negotiations, personal relationships, rapport and empathy truly matter. This requires his meeting with Kim, and taking his measure, and vice-versa.

President Biden’s age—perceived by some as a hindrance, or even a risk—may also offer an opportunity for novel diplomacy. But time is not on his side, as other diplomatic and US domestic political pressures will likely intercede as the year wears on. But by taking a first step, President Biden can earn—as did President Trump during the 2018 Singapore Summit and 2019 visit to the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)—Kim’s respect. And respect matters! It can lead to bolder initiatives and the hope of a lasting, durable peace on the Korean Peninsula. This is a key moment for President Biden, and our Asian allies, as well as adversaries such as Russia and China. All are watching closely, and the time to act boldly is now.

 

6. Moon’s Last Chance on North Korea

thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · June 15, 2021

It will be this impatience of the Moon administration that will cause significant friction in the ROK/US alliance.  And unfortunately, Kim Jong-un's political warfare strategy will attempt to exploit this impatience and the alliance friction it will cause.

 

7. A growing number of South Pyongan Province households are suffering from food shortages

dailynk.com  · by Seulkee Jang · June 17, 2021

Indicators that bear watching.  There is potential for instability, though as long as the military and security services remain coherent and function and support Kim Jong-un they will be able to suppress any resistance.

 

8. Debates arise over call to cancel joint military drills

The Korea Times  · by Jung Da-min · June 17, 2021

This is getting out of hand.  This is a danger not only to combined military readiness and deterrence but to the alliance writ large. We need voices stronger than Moon Chung-in to counter his dangerous advice.  All past appeasement has not worked. What evidence is there that continued consolation, postponing, and scaling back exercises will change north Korean behavior?

 

9. Korea's nuke envoy to hold bilateral, trilateral talks with US, Japanese counterparts

The Korea Times · June 17, 2021

I hope they can resolve the exercise issue.  The insanity of Moon chiung-in's advice must be shut down.

 

10. N.K. holds key party meeting for second day with focus on economy

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 17, 2021

It is like deja vu all over again.  How many times have we read that party meetings in north Korea are focused on the economy?  How many times has the regime and the party solved its economic problems?

 

11. U.N. discloses thousands of files related to North Korea human rights abuses

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 16, 2021

This should be helpful to researchers and eventually for the necessary truth and reconciliation commission that will be established during the unification process.

 

12. 'The way to survive': North Korea ramps up recycling amid sanctions and pandemic

Reuters · by Minwoo Park

The Korean people in the north do not waste anything.  They are probably the most efficient recyclers in the world at the personal or family level.  But will a national level recycling campaign have any effect? Or is  this simply cosmetic?

Excerpt: "Residents are complaining about the government trying to control everything, even rubbish: 'How can we recycle waste, when we don't even have waste?'"

 

13. North Korea Isn't Planning Any Nuclear Weapons Tests Anytime Soon

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 16, 2021

Absence of evidence - ?

north Korea is masterful at denial and deception.

What if they are planning an atmospheric test, say over the Pacific Ocean?

 

14.  South Korea citizenship law change proposal sparks anti-China backlash

CNN

The Chinese know how to conduct subversion and this would provide the Chinese an easy pathway to subvert Korean society in the coming decades.

 

15. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Phone Calls to China and South Korea

rfa.org · by Myungchul Lee and Jeong Yon Park

Again, this illustrates that Kim Jong-un is afraid, he is very afraid.  And of course cell phones are not only useful for transmitting information they are an excellent conduit for funds.

 

-------------

 

"The tyrant dies and his rule is over, the martyr dies and his rule begins."

- Soren Kierkegaard

 

“If one wanted to crush and destroy a man entirely, to mete out to him the most terrible punishment ... all one would have to do would be to make him do work that was completely and utterly devoid of usefulness and meaning.”

- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

 

"We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light. "

- Plato

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1.  Statement by President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. on the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism

2.  FACT SHEET: National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism

3. Biden administration unveils new strategy to counter domestic terrorism

4. Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense on 2020 Unified Command Plan

5. FOLLOW-UP Comments Fixing Oversight of Special Operations Forces

6. How I learned to stop worrying and to love the Afghanistan withdrawal plan | Opinion

7. Biden nominates 9 to high-profile ambassador postings

8. Part 1: What the budget reveals — and leaves unclear — about the cost of JADC2

9. Part 2: Congress dealt ABMS a blow, but experts see progress

10. Part 3: Proposed modernization increases show Army sees joint operations as ‘top priority’

11. Part 4: Classified Navy JADC2 budget plan has a few spending hints

12. Biden’s Hair Should Be ‘On Fire’ Over Afghan Translators Being Left Behind, Senator Says

13. Pentagon considering permanent naval task force to counter China in the Pacific

14. Next National Defense Strategy Should Return to Two-War Force Construct

15. US military’s elite commando forces look to expand diversity

16. An alliance of democracies is essential

17. US signals flexibility and pragmatism to China

18. The real B3W-NATO agenda

19. How Biden Should Deal With Putin

20. China Repackages Its History in Support of Xi’s National Vision

21. Clausewitz and Centres of Gravity: Turning the Esoteric into Practical Outcomes

22. Developing a Combatant Command Campaign Plan: Lessons Learned at US Central Command

 

1. Statement by President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. on the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism

White House · June 15, 2021

Excerpt: "This is a project that should unite all Americans."

Statement by President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. on the National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism

 

2. FACT SHEET: National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism

White House · June 15, 2021

The 32 page strategy document can be downloaded here: 

The four pillars:

PILLAR 1: UNDERSTAND AND SHARE DOMESTIC TERRORISM-RELATED INFORMATION

PILLAR 2: PREVENT DOMESTIC TERRORISM RECRUITMENT AND MOBILIZATION TO VIOLENCE

PILLAR 3: DISRUPT AND DETER DOMESTIC TERRORISM ACTIVITY

PILLAR 4: CONFRONT LONG-TERM CONTRIBUTORS TO DOMESTIC TERRORISM

​The 5th pillar should be: Do so without violating civil rights, the US Constitution, and American values.​

​From the strategy: "while safeguarding bedrock American civil rights and civil liberties – values that​ ​make us who we are as a nation.​"​​

 

3. Biden administration unveils new strategy to counter domestic terrorism

NBC News · by Ken Dilanian · June 15, 2021

 

4. Memorandum for the Secretary of Defense on 2020 Unified Command Plan

White House · June 04, 2021

I missed this two weeks ago. Does this mean the Pentagon's global force posture review is complete and is it now time to update the UCP?  

I have received a number of comments to this article. They are all over the map.

First, my follow-up comment:

“Actually the more I think about this the more I think the article was a good idea. Note I said the article was a good idea. Changes to SOF will only come through Congressional action. Congress will not be at all happy with the proposal in the article as it will undo too much SOF goodness that has been developed since 1987, it will not fix the SOF issues, and will only create more. Therefore, perhaps this article will spur Congress to take another bold step forward (where are the 21st Century Nunn and Cohen?) and actually implement substantive SOF improvements beyond what they tried in Sec 922. Again, we do not need SOF as a separate service because there is a lot of goodness with the connections SOF elements have with their parent service and that was one of the smart aspects of Nunn-Cohen. But SOF needs the requisite service authorities and resources to properly manage and oversee SOF. This is what Congress must follow through with. They provided their intent with Sec 922 but only offered half measures and f steps to solve the problems. It is time for bold congressional action. Will it happen?

 

Comments received and observed:

1.

Barno makes a strong argument but history tells us that his suggested arrangement will diminish SO and SOF. His example of the Navy-Marine relationship is interesting but it is very different from a potential Army-SOF relationship. History!

I also find the fixation on SOF problems curious considering the very serious issues with conventional forces and their leaders. SOF certainly does need to clean up its messes. 

We also should not lose sight of the fact that our military, under predominantly conventional leaders, has proven to be incapable of winning wars against 4th rate opponents (I am categorizing Rangers as other direct action leaders in the conventionally, attrition-minded category). This includes the article’s author.

Contrary to Mulholland’s view, a separate service with global operational responsibilities is necessary. 

2. 

 

Tiring. You will note it is about the domains. The DA side of SOF is indeed more closely related to the Land. Special Warfare is a Human domain martial activity. 

3.

Well, how about them apples. 

Just maybe the discussion is getting down to the fundamentals of our strategic national security deficiency. Go under the Army’s civilian leadership (Navy -Marine) or acknowledge the emergence of a human domain and structure accordingly.

The millstone around our SOF neck is the inclusion of elite infantry into the community. We hue to our Army root out of nostalgia and romance. The Army then mandates subservience and corrupts in the process who we are and perverts in its control what we are meant to do.

4.

Dave,

You are exactly right. Placing SOF under the Army will particularly undo the SOF RD&A authority and the speed with which it is accomplished. Back to layers of slow moving oversight, unnecessary and ill informed and probably prejudiced challenges and denials. I served in USSOCOM from 1988-1994 in the early days and the ability to finally get things done for SOF by SOF which was extremely rewarding and satisfying. 

Placing SOF under the Army is a solution looking for a problem.  

5.

I think this a half measure. The Sec Army has a great deal on his plate and limited bandwidth with staff, time and resources. SOCOM and its forces are essentially the Marine Corps of SOF. Its forces are greatly dependent upon the respective Services largesse and it has a limited seat at the table. There is also the issue of Not Invented Here in regard to an Army Sec dictating to USAF, USN and USMC forces.

I think it best to do what Congress actually intended and give the ASD SOLIC near-Secretarial authority and an expanded staff to manage. He/She can focus exclusively on SOF and insure its interests are spoken for with equality/authority at the table. Most importantly, the position would direct resources without competition eg Do we support procurement of an exclusive Army item or fund a SOF initiative? etc.

 

Gen Barno's suggestion reduces the bureaucratic battle to keep SOF at bay, but it does not fix the inherant problem-The Services do not want SOF to have an equal voice or authorities regarding rice bowl issues.

My experience indicates that only a forced Congressional statute will resolve the issue. The Services will hate it but, in time, it will demonstrate the value as did Nunn-Cohen, Goldwater-Nichols and MFP 11.   

6.

the Army is barely able to direct the behavior and provide oversight of special operations forces wearing army uniforms. The idea the army secretary is going to provide oversight of units from other services is…let’s just say the idea is underdeveloped in this thin article. 

Sorta reads like Jake Blues wrote it to stop the mystery woman from killing him

7.

I hate to be the contrarian, but what Dave Barno and Nora Bensahel are proposing would be a creative and effective solution, particularly in the short run. One could even take it a step further and consider breaking up the ASD SOLIC and putting its various directorates under other ASDs within OUSD (P). At a minimum, DoD should fund a study to determine how effective it has been in terms of providing civilian oversight throughout its own history. With a constantly revolving door of political appointees it's tough to make an argument that they can oversee their own organization, let alone a Combatant Command. I'm not convinced throwing more money at the problem will solve their problems either. Last, if one assumes a status quo budget for the foreseeable future (best case), where are these additional funds going to come from? Thoughts, ctrarguments?

8.

I think there are several deep seated issues that mitigate against a half measure on this issue:

The Office of Sec Army is overwhelmed by just Army issues, asking them to supervise/manage SOF-especially other services will never work

The Services and the DOD bureaucracy absolutely hate the idea of SOF having a major voice at the table or authorities that detract from their own rice bowls. They will do everything in their power-civil service bureaucrats to political appointees to contain the authorities with every tool at their disposal-Recall all the Service Chiefs telling Congress post Grenada that everything was fine and only minor tweaking was necessary.

This proposal is an attempt to stall the direction of a strong ASD SO/LIC and hope the Hill buys it.

As with most reform/change within DOD, it takes legislative statutes to fix issues.

9.

Much like Trey Goudy said that the Squad is best preserved as a means to insure a GOP majority in the future..............

10.

What about putting them back under their respective services? Yes, there could be some standards for interoperability, but let them focus on Service missions.

We treat SOF as a strategic asset but that is only true in some very limited contexts. And it has contributed to where we are today. A lot of folks who grew up in SOF think only SOF can do certain things and restricted conventional forces as a consequence. This is particularly galling when those supposedly SOF capabilities are little more than basic combat tasks done by specialized troops. And SOF does not seize and hold terrain. At least not for very long.

 

11. FOLLOW-UP Comments Fixing Oversight of Special Operations Forces

warontherocks.com · by David Barno · June 15, 2021

So let’s place oversight for SOF with the service secretary facing the greatest challenge in articulating its role (and justifying its budgetary requirements) in the foreseeable future?

Seems like a high likelihood of a conflict of priorities, if not interests.

 

---------- Forwarded message ---------

From: David Maxwell <david.maxwell161@gmail.com>

Date: Tue, Jun 15, 2021 at 7:00 AM

Subject: Fixing Oversight of Special Operations Forces

To:

The authors have said the quiet part out loud.  There are many senior officials who likely support this and this will put us right back in 1986. The answer is not to give SOF oversight to the Army but it is to provide SOF with service authorities along with responsibilities (and the resources to execute them) as Congress intends. Rather than go back to the future and undo Nunn-Cohen of Goldwater-Nichols, SOF needs to continue to evolve to improve (to reach an enlightened state).

 

6. How I learned to stop worrying and to love the Afghanistan withdrawal plan | Opinion

Newsweek · by Frank Sobchak· June 11, 2021

Excerpts: “When thinking of our vital interests, the U.S. should focus on areas that matter to us strategically and the enemies that can threaten those interests. While we squandered our finances in Afghanistan, the forces of authoritarianism have been on the march. Russia and China present complicated global threats to the existing liberal order that the U.S spent decades building and maintaining. Iran, a nation that has pledged the destruction of both Israel and the United States, presents a regional threat to that order and is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear power—a grave danger that could ignite an arms race and further destabilize a crucial region. Afghanistan is a costly distraction from those much bigger threats.

Even if a vestige of the terrorist threat does rise again in Afghanistan, it is unlikely to be significant enough to require another large-scale, prolonged intervention. The vast majority of the current fighters are domestic combatants engaged in the struggle for Afghanistan's future. There are some al-Qaeda and Islamic State militants in Afghanistan, but those organizations spread across the world long ago in order to survive. It would require a willful suspension of reality to pretend the senior leaders of those organizations would return to set up terrorist training camps or operate overtly in Afghanistan, as this would put them in the crosshairs of American and coalition aircraft. If anything, it is the continued U.S. presence in Afghanistan that provides fodder for recruitment of the global jihadist network. Ending our involvement in the Afghan conflict will hurt the terrorists' recruitment efforts.

As John Quincy Adams once noted, we should not go abroad in search of monsters to destroy. The world is full of monsters who wish us ill. If we continuously go hunting for all of them, as we have for the last two decades, we will find ourselves financially insolvent and collectively exhausted. It is time for us to rest up and prepare, so that we will be ready when the big monsters do come for us.

 

7. Biden nominates 9 to high-profile ambassador postings

AP · by Aamer Madhani · June 15, 2021

 

8. Part 1: What the budget reveals — and leaves unclear — about the cost of JADC2

c4isrnet.com · by Nathan Strout · June 15, 2021

A four part series on JADC2 - Joint All-Domain Command and Control.

 

10. Part 3: Proposed modernization increases show Army sees joint operations as ‘top priority’

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden · June 15, 2021

 

11. Part 4: Classified Navy JADC2 budget plan has a few spending hints

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · June 15, 2021

 

12. Biden’s Hair Should Be ‘On Fire’ Over Afghan Translators Being Left Behind, Senator Says

defenseone.com · by Jacqueline Feldscher

 

13. Pentagon considering permanent naval task force to counter China in the Pacific

Politico

Excerpts: “It’s not yet clear whether the task force would involve only U.S. ships, or include other nations’ militaries as well, the people said.

Officials working on China policy at the Pentagon are also considering establishing a named military operation for the Pacific, which would create a formal planning process for the defense secretary and provide additional budget authority and resources for the effort, the people said.

The Pentagon has not yet briefed Capitol Hill on the plans, one of the people said.

Based on the work of Ratner’s task force, Austin issued a directive last week initiating several department-wide efforts to better address the security challenges posed by China as the United States’ “number one pacing challenge.” But officials declined to provide any details, saying that many of the initiatives are classified.

 

14. Next National Defense Strategy Should Return to Two-War Force Construct

airforcemag.com · by John A. Tirpak · June 15, 2021

There are only so many concepts: 2 Major Regional Contingencies and 2 lesser regional contingencies, Win-Hold-Win. We have probably seen them all since the ended of the Cold War.

The 60 page report can be downloaded here. 

 

15. US military’s elite commando forces look to expand diversity

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · June 15, 2021

Excerpts: “The effort comes as the military — and the nation — struggles with racism, extremism and hate crimes. Leaders see greater diversity as a way to combat extremism in the ranks, even as they increase other training and education programs.

Commando forces — particularly the officers — tend to be far less diverse than the military as a whole. While only a small percentage of those who try out eventually pass the grueling, years-long training for special operations, leaders hope that bringing in a wider array of recruits will lead to a more diverse force.

As of March 2021, a full 95% of all SEAL and combatant-craft crew (SWCC) officers were white and just 2% were Black, according to Naval Special Warfare statistics provided to the AP. The officers corps of Army Special Forces is 87% white, and also 2% Black.

The enlisted ranks are only slightly more diverse. About 84% of the Navy SEAL and SWCC enlisted troops are white, and 2% are Black. The greater diversity comes in the number of American Indian, Alaskan Native and those who say they are “multiple” races. The Army’s enlisted special forces are also 84% white, but the percentage of Blacks goes up to 4.

When all members of Naval Special Warfare and Army Special Operations Command are included — which would add combat support, civil affairs and psychological operations personnel — the diversity grows slightly. But it still doesn’t match the overall Army and Navy statistics. For example, 40% of the Navy’s enlisted force and 24% of it’s officers are non-white.

 

16. An alliance of democracies is essential

lowyinstitute.org · by Michael J Green

Excerpts: “For years surveys have shown that thought-leaders across the Indo-Pacific greatly prefer democracy to authoritarianism. While the world’s leading democracies have rightly imposed sanctions in the cases of Xinjiang or Myanmar, the main theme of the recent Cornwall G7 Summit was about making the investments needed to demonstrate that democracy works. Thus, rather than pressuring countries to reject China’s Belt and Road projects, the United States, Australia and Japan (now joined by the other G7 countries) are offering high quality infrastructure financing alternatives.

But for that strategy to work, recipient countries will need to make borrowing decisions based on accountability, transparency and anti-corruption. A game of geopolitical influence absent efforts to strengthen democratic governance – even one backed by more lending – would end in failure as Beijing bribes its way across the region. It is only logical that the leading democracies should be coordinating strategies on this front. American and Australian taxpayers should demand no less.

Finally, solidarity among democracies matters to deterrence and regional stability. If Beijing or Moscow think that US alliances in Europe and Asia can be divided against each other, then the cost of aggression goes down. It does not require an explicit security guarantee for like-minded democracies to signal that there will be global consequences for coercion or aggression against vulnerable states even outside their own regions – the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or “Quad”, is one such example. In that regard the Cornwall G7 summit’s first ever mention of Taiwan also had real significance.

 

17. US signals flexibility and pragmatism to China

asiatimes.com · by MK Bhadrakumar · June 16, 2021

Huh? We were really trying to get the G7 to "slander" China?

Excerpts: “Evidently, while a collective tone against China was possible at the G7, Washington failed to get the group to slander China. In sum, the final communiqué turned out to be a product dominated by the US with compromise by all.

All empirical evidence is stacked against a Western coordinated move, leave alone unified hostile action against China. The bottom line is that while European countries may have “systemic” differences with Beijing, their economic relations with China are competitive but they also have strategic needs for cooperation.

Interestingly, according to China Central Television, Blinken too acknowledged during his phone call with Yang on Friday on the eve of the Cornwall summit that the series of contacts between the US and China in the most recent weeks are beneficial to bilateral relations and the US is looking forward to increasing contact and exchanges with China at all levels.

Blinken reportedly said that the US adheres to the one-China principle and abides by the three China-US joint communiqués and hopes to maintain communication and coordination with China on major international and regional issues.

The G7 communiqué’s formulation on the Taiwan question confirms that the US wants to maintain flexibility in its handling of the China-US relationship. That is a very important indicator.

 

18. The real B3W-NATO agenda

asiatimes.com · by Pepe Escobar · June 16, 2021

Escobar provides quite an interpretation of B3W, the G7 and NATO summits,

Excerpts: The initial “catalytic investments” for BW3 were estimated at $100 billion. No one knows how these funds will be coming from the “development institutions.”

Seasoned Global South observers already bet they will be essentially provided by IMF/World Bank “green” loans tied to private sector investment in selected emerging markets, with an eye on profit.

The White House is adamant that “B3W will be global in scope, from Latin America and the Caribbean to Africa and the Indo-Pacific.” Note the blatant attempt to match Belt and Road’s reach.

All these “green” resources and new logistic chains, financed by what will be a variant of central banks showering helicopter money, would ultimately benefit G7 members – certainly not China.

And the “protector” of these new “green” geostrategic corridors will be – who else? – NATO. That’s the natural consequence of the “global reach” emphasized on the NATO 2030 agenda.

 

19. How Biden Should Deal With Putin

Foreign Affairs · by Michael McFaul · June 14, 2021

Conclusion: “Biden is right to test whether Putin might embrace a more stable, predictable relationship with the United States. Should the Russian president opt instead to continue invading countries, mounting hacking and disinformation campaigns, and arresting innocent Russians and Americans, it will be clear that he, not Biden, is responsible for confrontation with the United States. Biden is also right to try to work with the Kremlin on a limited agenda of mutual interest, particularly on arms control. Even during tense moments of the Cold War, U.S. presidents saw the wisdom in cooperating with their Soviet counterparts to reduce the risk of nuclear war.

At the same time, the Biden administration must swiftly develop the other dimensions of its strategy for containing and deterring Putin’s belligerent behavior while also supporting democratic forces in Russia,

 

20. China Repackages Its History in Support of Xi’s National Vision

WSJ · by Chun Han Wong and Keith Zhai

It is easy to be reminded of George Orwell here:“Orwell believed that the status of history itself had been radically challenged by totalitarianism. In his essay Looking Back on the Spanish War, written in 1942, he recalled telling Arthur Koestler that: “History stopped in 1936.” By this he meant that the Spanish Civil War, as the first conflict of the totalitarian era, was the first time that rival propaganda machines made an accurate account of events impossible. “I know it is the fashion to say that most of recorded history is lies anyway,” he wrote. “I am willing to believe that history is for the most part inaccurate and biased, but what is peculiar to our own age is the abandonment of the idea that history could be truthfully written.”

​Excerpts:​ “The history academy’s revisionism hasn’t always gone over well with the public. In December, its Weibo account drew wide criticism for an essay, since taken down, that challenged popular condemnation of Mao’s “Down to the Countryside Movement,” which forced millions of urban young people to live and work in rural villages.

The essay described the movement as “a great achievement that advanced the development of society,” according to copies that have been republished online. In that respect, it echoed official portrayals of the seven years Mr. Xi spent as a “rusticated youth” in the countryside as a transformative experience that taught him to serve the people.

Some Chinese historians say the academy is twisting history to serve politics. “They aren’t following an academic path,” said a prominent history professor in Beijing, who said he declined the academy’s invitation to collaborate on a project. “These people are doing this to suck up and win promotion.”

In April, Mr. Xi visited a memorial to a 1934 battle that took place during the “Long March,” a military retreat over thousands of miles by Communist Party troops that was later celebrated as a strategic triumph that helped Mao secure power. Mr. Xi urged his compatriots to emulate the undying faith and self-sacrifice shown by the Red Army.

When confronting challenges, domestic and foreign, in pursuit of China’s rejuvenation, he said, “We must have such conviction in our inevitable victory.”

 

21. Clausewitz and Centres of Gravity: Turning the Esoteric into Practical Outcomes

groundedcuriosity.com · by Michael G Krause · June 12, 2021

An admonishment that we must read Books Six and Eight of On War to begin to think about center of gravity. 

Conclusion: “I admire and am at the same time frustrated by Clausewitz: I like the genius he applies to a most difficult topic and yet am frustrated how difficult he is to penetrate sometimes. It is not a case of sorting the wheat from the chaff – his writing is so dense that every word has to be studied and thought about. It takes hard work; whole pages swim before my eyes sometimes. His work is poetry and seductively out of reach at times. If only he had lived long enough for one more read-through and tidy-up. Damn that cholera.

While many have not gone past the First Book in On War to discuss Clausewitz’s theories on war, strategy and states, the military professional interested in his work on Centre of Gravity has to wade through to Book Six and Book Eight before the ideas are mentioned. They form, however, a central idea to understand how forces generate strength. By understanding how forces generate strength one can understand the seeds of defeat in an enemy and protect one’s own. Planning is about understanding and understanding starts with the realm of the practical and the possible. By combining theory with practical understanding and the desire for practical outcomes, Clausewitz provides a useful and timeless start point for the modern military professional. Of course, he requires interpretation and judgement in application, but he makes one think and realise how much there is always still to learn.

 

22. Developing a Combatant Command Campaign Plan: Lessons Learned at US Central Command

mwi.usma.edu · by Chad Pillai · June 16, 2021

Theory does not always equal practice.

Some excellent advice in this piece including this conclusion: “Additionally, no matter how involved you are in the project, you should never take the product you worked on personally. If you do, you will face a lot of difficulty trying to defend everything you put into the CCP. I lived by the rule of thumb that I will be satisfied with the final product as long as the key concepts or ideas remain. Finally, while developing a CCP is a complex undertaking, gaining an appreciation for how the process works beyond what is taught will help future planners better navigate managing OPTs and develop products that are both useful and executable.

 

------------

 

"You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have." 

- Maya Angelou

 

"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." 

- Roger Staubach

 

 "I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear." 

- Rosa Parks

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Both sanctions and diplomacy critical to denuclearizing N. Korea: Kritenbrink

2. N.K. leader opens key party meeting to discuss how to cope with 'current international situation'

3. North Korea Has Been Importing Chinese COVID-19 Vaccines Since Early May

4. A reunified Korea could be a formidable power in East Asia – Responsible Statecraft

5. Why is hunger getting worse in June? This is the worst in the Kim Jong-un era.

6.  ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Soaring Food Prices Cause Market Confusion. 2.4 times the price of corn: "The market is screaming in pain.”

7. North Korea Has Been Importing Chinese COVID-19 Vaccines Since Early May

8. U.S. supports provision of COVID-19 vaccine to N. Korea

9. Police deployed at South Korea THAAD base as U.S. seeks upgrades

10. Kim warns of ‘tense’ food situation, longer COVID lockdown

11. Kritenbrink pledges efforts to strengthen alliance, denuclearize Korean Peninsula

12. Vice FM stresses human rights-based approach to new digital technologies

13. JCS chairman visits military units on western border island

14. NATO calls for ‘complete, verifiable, irreversible’ denuclearization of N. Korea

15. Ruling party chief proposes small modular reactors as energy aid to North Korea

16. North Korea's economic desperation

17. Korea’s ‘innotech’ economy maddens analog Japan

18. List of assets owned by Japan in Korea is ordered

19. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un isn’t a K-pop fan anymore

20. Ministry of State Security continues to conduct random arrests of illegal cell phone users near border

21. New research center formed to develop "personal security equipment" to protect Kim Jong Un during on-the-spot inspections

 

1. Both sanctions and diplomacy critical to denuclearizing N. Korea: Kritenbrink

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 16, 2021

Ambassador Kritenbrink has effectively outlined some of the key elements the Administration's Korean policy:

• Denuclearization in accordance with all relevant UN Security Council Resolutions
• Practical diplomacy and deterrence ( or as President Biden said "stern deterrence")
• Enforcement of sanctions
• An alliance approach

 

2. N.K. leader opens key party meeting to discuss how to cope with 'current international situation'

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 16, 2021

Again, does the "current international situation" mean that Kim is laying the groundwork and preparing the narrative to support Kim's "externalization" of his domestic problems? Are we going to see increased tensions, threats, and possible provocations?

 

3. North Korea Has Been Importing Chinese COVID-19 Vaccines Since Early May

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son, Jeongeun Ji and Myungchul Lee

An interesting development.

 

4. A reunified Korea could be a formidable power in East Asia – Responsible Statecraft

responsiblestatecraft.org · by Christopher Mott · June 15, 2021

The author does not share with us the paths to unification. What is the path" Reconciliation and merging to systems? A new nK leadership that seeks unification? War? Regime instability and collapse?

Frankly, the author does not seem to present an understanding of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime and embarks magical mystery tour to get to unification.

While I agree unification will make Korea formidable it has to be a United Republic of Korea (UROK) The solution to all the problems on the Korean peninsula is to achieve the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

But I think the essence or the basic intent of this article is to provide supporting fires to the position that there should be an end of war declaration. He wants to make it seem that if there is an end of war and denuclearzation we can then proceed down the path of unification that will result in a Switzerland like unification Korea (perhaps with a small amount of nuclear weapons).

Not only is this fantasy it requires appeasement of the Kim family regime and we should know where that will take us.

 

5. Why is hunger getting worse in June? This is the worst in the Kim Jong-un era.

asiapress.org

Reporting from inside north Korea. More indicators that we must pay attention to observe for potential instability.

 

6. ＜Breaking News Inside N. Korea＞ Soaring Food Prices Cause Market Confusion. 2.4 times the price of corn: "The market is screaming in pain.”

asiapress.org

More reporting and indicators from north Korea.

 

7. North Korea Has Been Importing Chinese COVID-19 Vaccines Since Early May

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son, Jeongeun Ji and Myungchul Lee

An interesting development.

 

8. U.S. supports provision of COVID-19 vaccine to N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 15, 2021

 

9.  Police deployed at South Korea THAAD base as U.S. seeks upgrades

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · June 16, 2021

The ROK government has been unable to separate the professional agitators from the local population.

This problem will persist as long as these professional agitators are allowed to conduct their subversive activities (which consists of duping the local population).

 

10. Kim warns of ‘tense’ food situation, longer COVID lockdown

AP News · by Kim Tong-Hyung · June 16, 2021

And to continue to beat the dead horse: the suffering is caused by Ki Jong-un’s deliberate policy decisions to prioritize nuclear and missile development, military modernization, and support to the elite over the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.

We can expect the regime to exploit the suffering as rationale for demands for sanctions relief. Paradoxically Kim knows we are more concerned with the welfare of the Korean people living in the north than he is. He will try to play on our humanitarian nature as part of his political warfare strategy.

 

11. Kritenbrink pledges efforts to strengthen alliance, denuclearize Korean Peninsula

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · June 15, 2021

There should be no doubt that the Biden administration prioritizes alliance as a main effort in our foreign policy.

 

12. Vice FM stresses human rights-based approach to new digital technologies

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 16, 2021

No mention of north Korea? Why not? Think of what digital technologies would do for the Korean people in the north. South Korea should be leading the change to make the regime open up north Korea 'digitally." To follow the Vice FM's arguments the Korean people in the north have a right to digital access.

 

13. JCS chairman visits military units on western border island

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · June 16, 2021

This is the traditional period for the "crab wars" of north-South confrontation in the West Sea.

 

14. NATO calls for ‘complete, verifiable, irreversible’ denuclearization of N. Korea

donga.com · June 15, 2021

I cannot recall any past NATO statements that include north Korea. The Biden administration has done a good job marshalling the international community to address Korean security issues.

 

15.  Ruling party chief proposes small modular reactors as energy aid to North Korea

The Korea Times · June 16, 2021

Is this a new variation on the 1994 Agreed Framework? Do we think this will entice Kim Jong-un?

 

16. North Korea's economic desperation

The Korea Times · by Sandip Kumar Mishra  · June 16, 2021

The responsibility for all suffering lies on Kim's shoulders.

Key point: “It is important to underscore that the economic performance of North Korea will have significant bearings on its strategic choices. The new U.S. administration of President Joe Biden has been in the process of unveiling its North Korea policy, and the moribund North Korean economy will restrict Kim Jong-un's negotiating positions.

 

17. Korea’s ‘innotech’ economy maddens analog Japan

asiatimes.com · by William Pesek · June 16, 2021

Excerpts: “Winnie Tang at the University of Hong Kong notes that the pivotal role of Pangyo Techno Valley, Korea’s answer to Silicon Valley, in morphing the nation into an “innotech” hub – a combination of innovation and technology development – deserves more attention.

First, she argues, Korea rebounded from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis faster than its peers. Over the next two decades, Tang argues, GDP per capita doubled, K-Pop and Korea’s innotech “gained global renown,” while sectors from cosmetics to home appliances to mobile phones to food to clothing to automobiles made the nation a top player in global trade.

Now, though, things are going full circle, as innovative energy spreads far and wide afield of Pangyo Techno Valley sitting 21 kilometers from Seoul. Japan, by comparison, spent most of the last eight years obsessing over hosting the Tokyo Olympics, not relocating and reviving the economic mojo on display in 1964.

The worst news for Japan in the World Bank’s latest Ease of Doing Business index is not that Tokyo came in 24 places behind Seoul. It’s that at 29th Japan lags Russia, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Mauritius. In 2013, by the way, Japan was 24th. Since then, Korea has only enhanced its reputation as an economy on the move as Japan walks in place and falls further behind.

 

18. List of assets owned by Japan in Korea is ordered

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim · June 16, 2021

I imagine this will upset Japan.

 

19. North Korea’s Kim Jong-un isn’t a K-pop fan anymore

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim and Jeong Yong-Soo · June 16, 2021

Who does Kim fear more: the US or the Korean people? This is another indicator that he fears the Korean people more.

Excerpts:  “The war against K-pop has spread since the collapse of a second summit between Kim and U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019

 Last December, North Korea enacted a new law that called for up to 15 years in labor camps for people who watch or possess South Korean entertainment, according to Seoul lawmakers briefed by government intelligence officials.

 "The phenomenon of capitalist culture spreading among North Korean youth has been around for a long time,” said Jeon Young-sun, a unification studies professor at Konkuk University. “North Korea's leadership is aware of it, but when there is a difficult external environment, there are more efforts to crack down on it in order to strengthen internal solidarity.”

 

20. Ministry of State Security continues to conduct random arrests of illegal cell phone users near border

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 16, 2021

External information is an existential threat to the regime.

 

21. New research center formed to develop "personal security equipment" to protect Kim Jong Un during on-the-spot inspections

dailynk.com · June 16, 2021

Kim is afraid of the Korean people.

 

-----------

 

"You can’t use up creativity. The more you use, the more you have." 

- Maya Angelou

 

"There are no traffic jams along the extra mile." 

- Roger Staubach

 

 "I have learned over the years that when one's mind is made up, this diminishes fear." 

- Rosa Parks

Super Network of Corruption in Venezuela: Kleptocracy, Nepotism and Human Rights Violation / Súper red de corrupción en Venezuela: Cleptocracia, nepotismo y violación de derechos humanos

Small Wars Journal-El Centro Fellows Eduardo Salcedo-Albarán and Luis Jorge Garay-Salamanca recently released a comprehensive Vortex Foundation (Fundación Vortex) study of corruption in Venezuela.  The study relies on social network analysis (SNA) derived from official and media open source materials. The study compares and contrasts Venezuela's corruption networks with the Brazilian Lava Jato (Car Wash) case.

The English version is: Eduardo Salcedo-Albarán and Luis Jorge Garay-Salamanca, Super Network of Corruption in Venezuela: Kleptocracy, Nepotism and Human Rights Violation. Tampa: Scientific Vortex LLC and Fundación Vortex, 2021. [ISBN: 979-8739921147. Paper, 135 pages]

The Spanish version is: Eduardo Salcedo-Albarán and Luis Jorge Garay-Salamanca,  Súper red de corrupción en Venezuela: Cleptocracia, nepotismo y violación de derechos humanos. Bogotá: Fundación Vortex, 2021.

SWJ-El Centro Associate Daniel Weisz looked at the English version, Super Network of Corruption in Venezuela in a long-form review and commentary: "SWJ El Centro Review Essay – Super Network of Corruption in Venezuela: Kleptocracy, Nepotism and Human Rights Violation."  SWJ