News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June

2. Leaving Afghan Allies Behind: Abandoning translators to the Taliban is a moral and strategic mistake.

3. Taiwan says will be ‘force for good’ after unprecedented G7 support

4. Win or Lose, U.S. War Against China or Russia Won’t Be Short

5. Top military officer says U.S. capable of defending Taiwan

6. Fixing Oversight of Special Operations Forces

7. An Alternative to the Afghan Pullout By James Inhofe

8. We Ignore the Human Domain at Our Own Peril

9. Sending in the Troops: The Kerner Report, Civil Unrest, and the US Military

10. The Anti-Quad, The PRIC and The Clash of Values

11. Opinion | We Cannot Afford to Turn Our Backs on Afghanistan

12. F-35 pilot: Forget drones, the skies still belong to fighter pilots

13. G7 more divided than united on countering China

14. Shifting Focus, NATO Views China as a Global Security Challenge

15. Disagreements flare among NATO allies despite relief at Biden’s arrival

16. The enduring triumph of Chimerica

17. Air Force would contribute bulk of new cyber mission force teams

18. FBI warns lawmakers that QAnon 'digital soldiers' may become more violent

19. Biden’s Kinder, Gentler Trumpism

20. China hits back at ‘slanderous’ Nato claim it poses threat to west

21. Saving America From the Counterrevolution

22. Is China Backtracking On Its Wolf Warrior Diplomatic Style?

 

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June

June 14, 2021 | FDD Tracker: June 4 – 14, 2021

FDD Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June

David Adesnik

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. With President Joe Biden on his first overseas trip, foreign policy has taken center stage. At the G7 summit in the United Kingdom, Biden announced the United States will purchase and donate half a billion doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to low-income nations, “with no strings attached.” Today the president is in Brussels for his first NATO summit, while the Taliban surges across Afghanistan. On the gathering’s sidelines, Biden will have his first in-person meeting with his Turkish counterpart, whose conduct consistently undermines the transatlantic alliance. The sternest test for Biden will come on Wednesday when he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Will Putin dial back his provocations after the summit, or will he only emerge emboldened? Check back in two weeks to see if Biden capitalized on these opportunities.

 

2. Leaving Afghan Allies Behind: Abandoning translators to the Taliban is a moral and strategic mistake.

WSJ · by the Editorial Board · June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “Even a functioning visa program is insufficient at this point. President Biden can save lives by doing more, such as the evacuation of applicants to a temporary third country as the process plays out. Or he could provide them with humanitarian parole, which grants temporary permission to enter the U.S.

The Afghan translators risked their lives helping the U.S.—following the rules and earning a chance at the American dream. Abandoning them now is unconscionable.

 

3. Taiwan says will be ‘force for good’ after unprecedented G7 support

Reuters 

Excerpts: “Taiwan will continue to deepen its partnership with G7 states and other like-minded countries and strive for greater support from the international community, he said.

Taiwan will also "firmly contribute the greatest force for good" for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, Chang added.

China has stepped up its pressure against democratically-run Taiwan in recent months, with regular military drills near the island as it tries to assert Beijing's sovereignty.

While most countries, including G7 members, have no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the grouping along with other Western allies have been bolstering their backing for the island.

That includes calling for Taiwan to be given proper access to the World Health Organization during the coronavirus pandemic. Taiwan is not a member due to Chinese objections, which considers it merely one of its provinces with no right to the trappings of a state.

 

4. Win or Lose, U.S. War Against China or Russia Won’t Be Short

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · June 14, 2021

Nor would one be short with north Korea, Iran, or Russia. And the subtitle is an important question: what comes next? 

Conclusion: It doesn’t take much skill or foresight to start a big war. It may take a lot of endurance and creativity to end a great-power conflict somewhere short of disaster.

 

5. Top military officer says U.S. capable of defending Taiwan

Focus Taiwan ·  by David Barno · June 12, 2021

I have not seen this in the US press but I am not surprised that the Taiwan media noticed his testimony. 

 

6. Fixing Oversight of Special Operations Forces

warontherocks.com · by David Barno · June 15, 2021

The authors have said the quiet part out loud.  There are many senior officials who likely support this and this will put us right back in 1986. The answer is not to give SOF oversight to the Army but it is to provide SOF with service authorities along with responsibilities (and the resources to execute them) as Congress intends. Rather than go back to the future and undo Nunn-Cohen of Goldwater-Nichols, SOF needs to continue to evolve to improve (to reach an enlightened state).

 

7. An Alternative to the Afghan Pullout By James Inhofe

WSJ · by James Inhofe · June 13, 2021

Excerpts: “Preventing terrorist attacks from coming to American shores is why we have troops in Syria, Iraq and Somalia. Maintaining peace and preventing aggression is why we’ve had troops in Kosovo for more than two decades, on the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt for almost five decades and in South Korea for more than seven decades. It is also why our troops are standing sentry in Europe and the Indo-Pacific today.

Two years ago, a bipartisan majority of the Senate warned President Trump against removing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan without establishing the proper conditions on the ground. Mr. Trump listened. Mr. Biden didn’t. Reconsidering pivotal decisions is a sign of wisdom, not weakness, and I urge Mr. Biden to reconsider his choice on Afghanistan.

 

8. We Ignore the Human Domain at Our Own Peril

mwi.usma.edu · by Austin Branch · June 14, 2021

It is good to see LTG Cleveland credited with the human domain which I think has long been overlooked or forgotten.

Excerpts: “Below are a series of recommended actions to improve the US government’s human domain capabilities and prowess in the context of great power competition.

Leadership and Accountability

Better Integration of Social and Behavioral Sciences Across the Defense Enterprise

Human Feedback Loops are Essential

Change the Way We Train and Exercise for the Human Domain

Learn to Leverage the Space

Take a Hard Look at Authorities

Build a Nimble and Proactive Force

The human domain problem is more than academic—the domain is where great power competition is playing out, and in ways that seem both familiar and unprecedented. Indeed, most engagements are now won or lost in the competition phase—before conflict, much less kinetic activity, are even in play. Importantly, the defense enterprise is unprepared for persistent engagement in the human domain. Moreover, since the current competition space does not include a large-scale kinetic conflict, conventional capabilities are not an effective deterrent or response to adversary operations in the information environment. To secure our democracy against authoritarian adversaries who currently operate freely within the human domain, the United States must embrace the new information paradigm and begin to orient capabilities toward developing agile processes and tactics to effectively operate in a contested and uncertain environment. Ultimately, we need to remember that the secret to getting ahead is to get started.

 

9. Sending in the Troops: The Kerner Report, Civil Unrest, and the US Military

mwi.usma.edu · by Laura Keenan · June 15, 2021

Conclusion: “The precedent of how the National Guard handled previous unrest is not a prescription for the future but offers essential reference points. The National Guard can add to or minimize the chaos, and the level at which the National Guard prepares in advance likely determines the role it plays. The lessons on inequality and police brutality learned from the Kerner Report are still timely, and understanding the root cause of unrest can accelerate the National Guard’s response. The National Guard’s role in civil unrest missions is vital to national security. The National Guard’s readiness for civil unrest reduces the potential strain for the active-duty military. It also sends a clear national security message to adversaries that even in moments of domestic crisis, the National Guard is prepared to provide a ready and resilient force to secure the homeland.“

 

10. The Anti-Quad, The PRIC and The Clash of Values

boloji.com

Yes this new acronym for authoritarian regimes should really catch on (note sarcasm). Pakistan, Russia, Iran, China. Form the acronym and say it out loud. I guess the author had to substitute Pakistan for north Korea since it might form a useful acronym.

Conclusion: “Since the acronym BRIC was coined conceptually by the Goldman Sachs global economist James O’Neil in 2001, BRIC actually emerged in real in 2009 followed by the BRICS in 2011. There are internal contradictions in the BRICS grouping but it is still relevant. The fact of the matter is that the economic grouping emerged eight years after the acronym was coined and conceptualized. We see a parallel here. An Anti-Quad grouping is taking shape and form in a strategic counter-reaction to the reincarnation of Quad 3.0 as an alliance of democracies. This Anti-Quad is an alliance of authoritarians and its raison d’etre is the Quad 3.0. We witness a serious clash of values, democratic versus authoritarian, between the Quad and the Anti-Quad. Whether this grouping will actually take a concrete shape in the form of an alliance is yet to be seen. The four countries that constitute this Anti-Quad are Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. In the now famous tradition of BRIC, for conceptual clarity, we coin a new acronym PRIC that denotes the four authoritarian nations. The PRIC is an acronym for Pakistan, Russia, Iran and China depicting a de facto emerging strategic alliance of authoritarian regimes as a counter reaction to the Quad 3.0. There is a visible clash of values, democracy versus autocracy! The PRIC represents the autocrats of the world who are resisting democratic values world-wide.

 

11. Opinion | We Cannot Afford to Turn Our Backs on Afghanistan

The New York Times · by Robert M. Gates · June 13, 2021

Conclusion: The outcome in Afghanistan still matters in terms of American interests. We turned our backs on Afghanistan after Soviet troops withdrew in 1989; we must not do so again after the last of our troops depart. We must assure the Afghans of our continuing support — and sustain that support — through every means available short of ground troops. The consequences of another Taliban takeover in Kabul would not be limited to the people of Afghanistan.

 

12. F-35 pilot: Forget drones, the skies still belong to fighter pilots

sandboxx.us · by Hasard Lee · June 14, 2021

Excerpt: “As a fighter pilot, my job is to not fall in love with the aircraft I fly, but to use it as a tool to accomplish a mission. We are constantly looking for ways to optimize our lethality while minimizing risk. If there is a better way to accomplish a mission, then it is our duty to use it. While I agree with Elon Musk that the future is drone warfare, I think we’re a lifetime away from seeing a fully autonomous Air Force.”

 

13. G7 more divided than united on countering China

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · June 14, 2021

I am not so sure. Every joint statement or communique is a compromise document. It may seem weak to some but I think it was a pretty strong statement because the community of democracies was able to compromise to reach it. There had been questions prior to the summit whether they would address China at all so this would seem to have been beyond expectations.

 

14. Shifting Focus, NATO Views China as a Global Security Challenge

The New York Times · by Steven Erlanger and Michael D. Shear · June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “Some NATO members, especially those nearest to Russia in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic nations, are anxious that the shift in focus to China does not divert resources and attention from the Russian threat.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with Chinese and Russian military officials during joint military exercises in Siberia in 2018.Credit...Pool photo by Alexei Nikolsky

Mr. Biden made a point of meeting the leaders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland in Brussels before his meeting with Mr. Putin. NATO troops are deployed in all four countries.

But even Britain, probably Washington’s closest ally, expressed some wariness about confrontation with China. Asked at the NATO meeting about China, Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned against a “new Cold War,” while acknowledging that China’s rise was a “gigantic fact in our lives.”

Similarly, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said after the meeting: “If you look at the cyberthreats and the hybrid threats, if you look at the cooperation between Russia and China, you cannot simply ignore China.’’ But she also said: “One must not overrate it, either — we need to find the right balance.”

 

15. Disagreements flare among NATO allies despite relief at Biden’s arrival

The Washington Post · June 14, 2021

Excerpts: ““China is increasing its expansion, its influence around the world, and it’s increasingly running up against NATO,” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Monday at a forum organized by the German Marshall Fund that ran alongside the summit. “We need to make sure that as an alliance, even though we’re much more Atlantic than Pacific, we are aware of the global influences the Chinese have.”

But not every NATO country is on board with confronting China more forcefully. Some such as Hungary have friendly relations with China and seek investments from Beijing. Others such as Germany and other big European powers fall in the middle, believing there is a balance between the need to work with Beijing to fight climate change and the need to rein in its global ambitions.

At the G-7 summit, too, the question of how vigorously to call out China remained a point of division, with Germany, Italy and Japan expressing some reluctance to go as far as the Biden administration hoped.

And NATO’s front-line countries, the ones that border Russia, have been concerned in the past that focusing elsewhere could distract from what they see as the alliance’s central mission of defending against Russia, although many are increasingly coming around to the necessity of responding to both.

 

16. The enduring triumph of Chimerica

asiatimes.com · by David P. Goldman · June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “I would be surprised to learn that the US Treasury and the PBOC have worked this out in some kind of tacit policy agreement. The current is so strong that the US is being caught up in a Sinocentric vortex of trade and capital flows whether it likes it or not.

Eventually, US-China policy will adjust to the misery of America’s present circumstances.

 

17.  Air Force would contribute bulk of new cyber mission force teams

Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · June 14, 2021

 

18. FBI warns lawmakers that QAnon 'digital soldiers' may become more violent

CNN · by Zachary Cohen and Whitney Wild

 

19. Biden’s Kinder, Gentler Trumpism

Bloomberg · by Karl W. Smith · June 14, 2021

Excerpts: “No issue was more fundamental to Trump’s break with the past than his view of China as a rival rather than a partner. Not only were there the constant rhetorical attacks, but there was an often overlooked admission in a 2019 speech that he had always intended to spend the economic dividends from his tax cut on a trade war with China, but that it was worth the price.

Biden has been more restrained. But his advisers have made it clear there will be no return to the Obama-era paradigm of engagement, some of which those same advisers had worked to foster.

Crucially, the Biden administration has coupled this objective with the goal of broadly shared prosperity and declining inequality. This is the keystone that Trump, with his base in the Republican Party, simply could not set in place.

Ideologically, Trump’s policies of tax cuts for multinational corporations and “Buy American” provisions weren’t very compatible. With his supply-chain initiative, however, Biden is taking a crucial step forward in defining an economic paradigm that puts neoliberalism in the rear-view mirror. Whether the shift is wise is doubtful. But there can be little doubt that it is upon us.

 

20. China hits back at ‘slanderous’ Nato claim it poses threat to west

The Guardian · by Helen Davidson · June 15, 2021

Excerpts: “China’s embassy in London said it was resolutely opposed to mentions of Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan, which it said distorted the facts and exposed the “sinister intentions of a few countries such as the United States”.

China is under increasing pressure over its human rights abuses against ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and other regions, a draconian intervention in Hong Kong’s semi-autonomy, and threats towards Taiwan, which it considers a breakaway province to be reclaimed, by force if necessary.

The G7 had called on China to “respect human rights and fundamental freedoms, especially in relation to Xinjiang and those rights, freedoms and high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong enshrined in the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law”. It also underscored “the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”, and said it encouraged “the peaceful resolution of cross-Strait issues”.

 

21. Saving America From the Counterrevolution

aier.org · by Ethan Yang · June 14, 2021

Some interesting food for thought.

Excerpts: “The founder of the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER), Colonel Edward C. Harwood, wrote a little-known manifesto titled The Counterrevolution, which recounts this lesson not just for America but for the entirety of Western Civilization and its allies. The book may have been written in 1951, but it is just as relevant today, if not more so given where we are. During Harwood’s time, he saw a world greatly coming undone. Communism and Fascism were on the rise in Europe. Here at home, he observed a much milder but still highly troubling embrace of authoritarianism and reckless economics. It was obvious after reading Harwood’s book that he founded AIER to be the vanguard of not only sound economics and good government but ultimately a free and open society.

...

The socialists are very much still around today and their influence is growing. There is also the far-right and the new-right that seem to have abandoned the traditional Conservative commitment to the Constitution as well as free markets. On the left, you have the aforementioned socialists but also the emergence of intersectionality and critical race theory that combine economic ignorance with an utter disregard for individual dignity. Harwood explains that counterrevolutionary ideologies are based on legitimate complaints about society but have terrible solutions.

The best way to deal with them is to eliminate the problems that give them strength, whether it be providing economic opportunities for the marginalized or ensuring communities that were left behind can modernize. This, of course, requires more economic and civil freedom, not less. Harwood would recommend beating back the regulatory state, restoring the constitutional order, continuing to foster inclusive values pertaining to individuality, and reinvigorating our faith in private enterprise. They helped Western Civilization get this far; embracing these ideas again will certainly take it farther.

...

Defenders of the great revolution of enlightenment values and modernity have our work cut out for us. Harwood’s book is just as relevant today as it was in 1951 and at less than 100 pages, it is a manifesto for those who are up to the task of standing watch over the well-being of our society. Those who wish to dismantle the institutions of liberty that have made the West and its affiliates the richest and most advanced in human history pose a real threat. Abroad they must be held back with bayonets and sound foreign policy. Domestically they must be defeated in the realm of ideas and thoroughly discredited by addressing our shortcomings that give them credibility. Ultimately, this all requires restoring confidence in our civilization. That is because long before any rival power declares victory over the West, the West will have already given up on itself.

 

22. Is China Backtracking On Its Wolf Warrior Diplomatic Style?

eurasiareview.com · by Harsh V. Pant · June 15, 2021

Excerpt: “But beyond the style, what is key is action. And here it is highly unlikely that CCP will give up its regional and global aspirations, which have resulted in an aggressive foreign policy posture. Even if Chinese diplomats tone down their rhetoric, Beijing’s expansive foreign policy ambitions will continue to bring it into confrontation with its neighbours and other major powers.

Reflecting on his engagement with China, Henry Kissinger, the former US secretary of state, wrote that “Beijing’s diplomacy was so subtle and indirect that it largely went over our heads in Washington.” None of that subtlety exists today as China redefines its global role and agenda. While the Chinese leadership may now be realising that its diplomatic style needs a revamp, there is no indication that there is a rethink on Chinese policies. Stylistic shift without a substantive rethink won’t lead to a significant change in perceptions. But what recent developments underscore is that the costs are rising for China when it comes to its bullying tactics and for all the talk, there is hardly any plan to deal with it.

 

----------------

 

“Grand strategy is about marrying ends to means, about doing what you can, consistent with the nation's capabilities and resources.”

- Robert D. Kaplan, Earning the Rockies: How Geography Shapes America's Role in the World

 

"Every revolution has its counterrevolution that is a sign the revolution is for real. And every revolution must defend itself against this counterrevolution, or the revolution will fail."

- C. Wright Mills,  Listen Yankee (1960), pp. 54.

 

"A boxer derives the greatest advantage from his sparring partner – and my accuser is my sparring partner. He trains me in patience, civility and even temper."

- Marcus Aurelius 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June (Korea)

2. Remarks by President Moon Jae-in Leaving Cornwall after G7 Summit

3. North Korean defector says 'even North Korea was not this nuts' after attending Ivy League school

4. Unification minister puts U.S. trip on hold amid uncertainty over inter-Korean relations

5. Minister vows efforts to resume stalled talks with N. Korea on summit anniv.

6. How can Korea make the best of the G7 summit?

7. Border to get robot cameras, AI monitoring (Korea)

8. Entire border patrol unit in North Hamgyong Province placed into quarantine following "paratyphoid" outbreak

9. Why Does the Gov't Disregard Veterans? (South Korea)

10. Japan nixed meeting between Suga, Moon at G7

11. South Korea-Japan ties sour amid fresh military drills near disputed islands

12. North Korea: Why the Kingdom of Kim Jong Un Can Never Be Normal

 

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June (Korea)

FDD  · Korea: David Maxwell and Mathew Ha

Previous Trend: Positive

The positive effects of the summit between President Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in are still being felt. The two leaders’ mutual commitment to protecting the rules-based international order led China to warn South Korea about siding with the United States. With the conclusion of its Korea policy review, the Biden administration has made it known it is ready to conduct diplomacy with the North, but that the ball is in North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s court. There are reports of “significant communication” between North and South Korea beginning around the time of the summit, leading to speculation about possible North-South engagement activities, but no details have emerged. Pyongyang will exploit such engagement, so the Moon administration should reconsider its support. Despite this communication, the ROK Ministry of Defense now assesses the Kim regime is focused on internal affairs. The North continues to struggle with its failed economy, COVID-19 mitigation measures, the effects of natural disasters, and sanctions. Pro-engagement Korea watchers interpreted a reported change to the Workers’ Party of Korea’s rules as an indication Pyongyang would no longer seek to unify Korea through revolution, even though the North’s constitution insists on it. Their hopes were quickly dashed when Pyongyang’s Propaganda and Agitation Department issued a clarification saying unification via revolution remains the objective.

 

2.  Remarks by President Moon Jae-in Leaving Cornwall after G7 Summit

english1.president.go.kr · June 13, 2021

I wonder if there had been at least a "pull-aside “discussion between President Moon and Prime Minister Suga if these remarks would have been edited differently.  But these two historical events are very much worth remembering and considering when the international community is faced with complex problems, especially among those who value and respect sovereignty and self determination.

Excerpts: “My first face-to-face encounter with Prime Minister Suga of Japan was a precious moment that could have marked a new beginning in bilateral relations, but I regret that it did not lead to an official meeting.

While participating in the G7 Summit, two historical events lingered in my mind. One was the International Peace Conference held in The Hague in 1907. The patriotic martyr Yi Jun, a secret emissary of our Emperor, arrived there via the Trans-Siberian Railway to call attention to imperial Japan’s deprivation of Korea’s diplomatic rights, but he couldn’t even enter the conference room. The other was the Potsdam Conference, through which the Korean Peninsula’s division was decided. We were not even able to speak up as our fate was determined by the major powers of the day.

Today, the Republic of Korea has become one of the world’s 10 largest economies and a country where people – with unrivaled civic awareness – act in unison for democracy, epidemic prevention and control and carbon neutrality. Now, we have become a nation that can determine our own destiny and engage in mutual support and cooperation with other countries.

 

3. North Korean defector says 'even North Korea was not this nuts' after attending Ivy League school

foxnews.com · by Teny Sahakian

Yeonmi Park pulls no punches.  There is a 7 minute video at this link.

 

4. Unification minister puts U.S. trip on hold amid uncertainty over inter-Korean relations

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 15, 2021

Does this  indicate north-South communications and that something may be brewing.

We should also note, the Unification Minister has no counterpart in the US.

 

5. Minister vows efforts to resume stalled talks with N. Korea on summit anniv.

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · June 15, 2021

Again, can we read between the lines here and assess that there are ongoing communications between north and South?  Is something in the offing?

 

6. How can Korea make the best of the G7 summit?

The Korea Times · by Ahn Ho-young · June 15, 2021

Important guidance and recommendations from Ambassador Ahn.

Excerpts: “Now, almost 10 years later, Korea has again attended a G7 summit. My hope is that it will prove to be more than a one-time event and serve as another opportunity for Korea to enhance its stature on global issues.

There are several points we have to reflect on for that to happen. First of all, we must understand the changes the G7 went through over the years. The intervening years saw many important changes in the strategic, economic, technological, environmental and even health conditions around the world, such that we often talk about today being a time of global uncertainty.

...

As for how to make the best of this opportunity, Korea must not be timid in declaring its intention to join other democracies, to play a role commensurate with its capabilities, and to shed itself of the perception that Korea is becoming increasingly backward and inward-looking. In the wake of the May 14 Korea-U.S. Summit and its joint statement, I wrote in this column of my pleasant surprise, and the importance of implementing it. Let us hope that Korea's participation at the Cornwall Summit will serve as another timely juncture for Korea to move in that direction.

 

7. Border to get robot cameras, AI monitoring (Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee  · June 15, 2021

Border (DMZ) operations require manpower.  Technology can be a force multiplier but it cannot replace boots on the ground patrolling.  This is I have long advocated returning US forces to patrolling the DMZ.  However, rather than a US sector as we had in the past , US infantry battalions should rotate in with the ROK Divisions throughout the DM. Doing this would improve the amount of boots on the ground, supplement the ROK forces, demonstrate US commitment, improve US small unit training, and provide a morale boost to US rotational forces.  But I do not think there is any will for this on the ROK or US side.

 

8. Entire border patrol unit in North Hamgyong Province placed into quarantine following "paratyphoid" outbreak

dailynk.com · by Kim Yoo Jin · June 15, 2021

Does "paratyphoid" outbreak provide a cover for a COVID outbreak?  This bears watching.

 

9. Why Does the Gov't Disregard Veterans? (South Korea)

english.chosun.com

A sad commentary: "All countries reward veterans and the families of the fallen. But this populist government thinks that veterans' affairs are somehow a rightwing concern and must be spat on. The families of the Cheonan victims are weeping, and Korean War veterans do not have enough money to buy medicine. This is a travesty."

 

10. Japan nixed meeting between Suga, Moon at G7

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim  · June 15, 2021

 

11. South Korea-Japan ties sour amid fresh military drills near disputed islands

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · June 15, 2021

And I would also expect China and/or Russia to penetrate the Korean ADIZ in the area in the near future in order to cause a ROK and Japanese reaction and create more ROK/Japan friction.

 

12. North Korea: Why the Kingdom of Kim Jong Un Can Never Be Normal

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · June 14, 2021

Dangerous recommendations.  Embarking on an arms control process would make Kim believe his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy is success and rather than negotiate in good faith he will double down.  To Kim, arms control negotiations mean he will keep hi nuclear weapons.

In regards to isolation, that is Kim's choice. He has had plenty of opportunities to open his country to economic development.  But he has made the deliberate policy decision to keep his country isolated.

And lastly there is no mention of human rights in north Korea.  Do we really want to provide economic development  for the north in the hopes that the regime will change?  We tried that for 10 years from 1997 through 2007 and Kim Jong-il exploited all of that aid to develop and test his first nuclear device in 2006.

Excerpts: “Most realistic would be a focus on arms control, with the hope of developing a relationship that might lead to denuclearization. Even such a more limited objective would be advanced by developing a broader and more normal relationship. Meaning diplomatic ties—officials contacts are especially important with potentially dangerous adversaries—cultural exchanges, and economic ties.

The question ultimately is, what makes for a safer Northeast Asia? An isolated, sanctioned, and impoverished North Korea, depending on a hostile PRC and possessing a swelling nuclear arsenal? Or a more prosperous, engaged, and connected DPRK, with economic and political ties well beyond Beijing, which might prove willing to negotiate away at least part of its potential arsenal?

The skeptics might be right, that Kim wants nukes for ill-use, such as a new war to unify the peninsula. However, isolation is the counsel of despair. That future would rapidly grow ever darker as the North increased its nuclear and missile arsenals.

Moreover, so far Kim has behaved differently than his predecessors in significant ways. Although no liberal, he appears to harbor no illusions about the difficulties facing his nation and therefore likely realizes the disastrous outcome of any conflict. Thus, Washington should test him by moving away from what North Korea calls today’s “hostile” policy.

 

-------------------

 

 

“Grand strategy is about marrying ends to means, about doing what you can, consistent with the nation's capabilities and resources.”

- Robert D. Kaplan, Earning the Rockies: How Geography Shapes America's Role in the World

 

"Every revolution has its counterrevolution that is a sign the revolution is for real. And every revolution must defend itself against this counterrevolution, or the revolution will fail."

- C. Wright Mills,  Listen Yankee (1960), pp. 54.

 

"A boxer derives the greatest advantage from his sparring partner – and my accuser is my sparring partner. He trains me in patience, civility and even temper."

- Marcus Aurelius 

Skinheads, Saints, and (National) Socialists: An Overview of the Transnational White Supremacist Extremist Movement · by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Samuel Hodgson · June 14, 2021

The 40 page monograph can be downloaded here.

The introduction, conclusion, and recommendations are below.

This monograph must be read along with its companion monograph: Behind the Black Bloc An Overview of Militant Anarchism and Anti-Fascism​, which I am forwarding in a separate identically formatted message.​

While each is outstanding on their own, the simultaneous publication of both is just brilliant. These will become seminal works for Congress, policymakers, the IC, FBI, Homeland Security, and researchers. These are so balanced and objective with very sound recommendations the most important in both being "resist the temptation to pick sides."

Introduction

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s October 2020 Homeland Threat Assessment states that among domestic violent extremists, “racially and ethnically motivated violent extremists—specifically white supremacist extremists (WSEs)—will remain the most persistent and lethal threat in the Homeland.”1 The threat has been made clear through multiple lethal acts perpetrated by WSEs. The deadliest and most prominent recent attack was an August 2019 mass shooting at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas, that claimed 22 lives. It was the third-deadliest domestic extremist attack in 50 years.2 Beyond lone acts of terrorism, organized networks such as Atomwaffen Division (AWD) and The Base – both of which have been significantly disrupted, as this report details – have plotted terrorist attacks in recent years to advance their goal of overthrowing the U.S. government and triggering a race war.

The January 6, 2021, insurrection on Capitol Hill cast a spotlight on the WSE movement, as some people associated with WSE groups took part and displayed white power symbols, including a now-infamous “Camp Auschwitz” sweatshirt.3 Though the events of January 6 should not be over-interpreted as driven by WSEs – multiple types of rioters, grievances, and belief systems were involved – the insurrection underscored how WSEs can exploit our fractured political environment. In 2020–2021, the United States lurched discernibly toward armed politics and violent activism; multiple factions and movements resorted to the use or threat of violence to pursue their objectives. The country witnessed scenes not glimpsed in decades, such as armed citizens patrolling the streets in Georgia, Kentucky, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.4 The involvement of WSEs in the Capitol Hill attack and other events during this tumultuous period points to their ability to exploit societal fractures and the general rise in extremism.

At the same time, WSE activity has taken on an increasingly transnational dimension. WSEs are developing cross-border connections with like-minded individuals and groups, sha­­­­ring ideologies and practical knowledge with their foreign counterparts, both in person and online. The growing transnationalism of the movement has inspired further attacks across the globe and fueled extremist recruitment.

This report is designed to provide an overview of white supremacist extremism, both domestic and international. It addresses key WSE ideologies, major domestic and foreign WSE groups, the nature of the WSE threat in the United States, and transnational WSE activity. The report is not comprehensive: The universe of WSE actors is large, regionally varied, and constantly in flux as political conditions and the actions of law enforcement shape its development. Nonetheless, this report should provide a solid foundation for understanding the threat today and an indication of how the WSE movement may continue to evolve.

 

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

In the United States and internationally, the WSE threat continues to grow, and attacks have occurred even during the COVID-19 pandemic. The WSE movement thrives in the current political environment, which is increasingly prone to various extremist ideologies. There are concrete policies that can be leveraged to reduce this threat. In countering domestic threats of violence, however, the U.S. government must ensure that it protects relevant civil liberties and maintains political neutrality.

 

CONSIDER DESIGNATING WSE GROUPS AS TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS

Designating extremist groups as terrorist organizations is a step that the departments of State and the Treasury do not take lightly. The 2020 designation of RIM as an SDGT was a significant step in countering WSE groups. It is worth considering further designations of violent WSE groups and actors that meet the criteria to be listed as SDGTs or Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs).126

 

CONSIDER A DOMESTIC DESIGNATION STATUTE

A statute that allows for designation of domestic violent extremist organizations should be considered. Rather than advocating for or against it, this section describes the benefits and costs of such an approach.

The creation and even-handed employment of such a statute may be the most direct way to address and interdict funding for domestic violent extremist organizations. Such designation would potentially criminalize the financing of these organizations and enable authorities to freeze assets the organizations may already hold.

However, such a domestic statute would raise civil liberties concerns. One major concern would be ensuring that this statute is ideologically neutral in conception and application. Designations should correspond to the threats that groups pose, not the ideas they espouse. A domestic designation statute that targets groups espousing only certain ideologies may heighten the risk of violence. The perception of designation bias may become a rallying cry, drawing more members to violent extremism. As such, this statute must be clear about the predicate acts that trigger designation. Vague or imprecise language would render the statute vulnerable to legal challenges to both its adoption and its enforcement. The threshold for designation should be high: For a group to be designated, it must pose a legitimate threat to the lives of others. Finally, the statute must include a redress mechanism. The consequences of designation are severe and demand an opportunity for appeal.

 

MAP WSE GROUPS AND THEIR FINANCES

A dearth of knowledge about how WSE organizations are funded and structured hampers efforts to counter their financing. Accordingly, it is important to deepen our understanding of the organizational structures and funding mechanisms common to domestic violent extremist organizations.

The consensus among experts studying domestic violent extremism is that these groups are relatively fluid and devoid of organizational structure. This may be so. However, these groups may have a hidden hierarchy or organizational structure. Moreover, in the digital age, fluid organizational structures can quickly harden into more concrete ones. This increases the need to unearth concealed organizational structures. Such understanding can help authorities proactively disrupt sources of funding and mitigate the potential for harm. Further research in this area is needed.

 

CONDUCT MESSAGING CAMPAIGNS AIMED AT DISCREDITING WSE GROUPS

The United States has a history of devoting resources to messaging efforts designed to discredit extremist groups. While Washington’s record of discrediting jihadist groups can most charitably be described as mixed, it would be foolish to cede the territory of messaging to WSE groups. Propaganda and messaging constitute an inherent part of any significant conflict. One approach to countering WSE messaging might include de-bureaucratized teams – or “startups within government” – with flexibility in the messaging sphere. In the present case, this could be accomplished by a nimble unit of communications professionals and intelligence officers monitoring WSE propaganda and generating real-time counter-messaging content that exposes falsehoods in WSEs’ messaging and provides facts that discredit the movement. Such a model would inhibit WSE ability to enter new communication spaces unchallenged.127

The benefit of a “startups-within-government” approach is that government messaging efforts tend to be overly risk-averse. Most startups in the commercial sphere fail within their first three years of existence, and that is a good thing: Those that survive the Darwinian process confronting new businesses often go on to become highly profitable and accomplished. A startups-within-government model would accept the near certainty of failed experiments, with the understanding that de-bureaucratized cells that do not fail in a competitive environment are more likely to achieve an outsized impact.

 

WORK WITH TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES AND SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS

Extremists use social media and technology platforms to disseminate materials and recruit. In the past, WSE attackers have posted manifestos online prior to carrying out attacks. There may be better ways to identify danger signs and alert authorities if danger appears likely or imminent. And platforms where WSEs may attempt to spread violent ideologies and recruit should be monitored. Indeed, one increasingly important space for WSE recruitment appears to be videogames. Partnerships between large and small technology companies may help create a more comprehensive effort, including by providing smaller companies access to resources.

Collaboration between the U.S. government and technology companies has often been hampered by technology companies’ mistrust of government intelligence-gathering, as well as concerns about user privacy. The U.S. government should address WSE activity in a manner consistent with these concerns. Continuing dialogue about content takedowns – regardless of the ideology of the content – is crucial. The success of the dialogue will depend on the ability of participants to approach extremism with the appropriate level of context and expertise and without bias. To this end, one critical recommendation is to include people with a diversity of perspectives in these discussions, including those skeptical of content takedowns due to concerns related to protecting speech and expression.

 

WORK WITH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERS

Since the WSE movement is global, Washington must collaborate with international partners to study groups and individuals with connections to WSE militancy. WSE groups seek to establish cross-border links with foreign counterparts, and some even establish overseas chapters or operate in multiple countries. They can inspire and motivate others across the globe to carry out attacks. The U.S. government should study and prepare for potential new avenues of internationalization and transnational collaboration in the WSE sphere. Such understanding and awareness would better prepare U.S. law enforcement and intelligence to halt or respond to acts of WSE violence.

 

STUDY RECIPROCAL RADICALIZATION AND FRINGE FLUIDITY

In the current polarized climate, opposite extremes tend to radicalize both sides and provide average people a reason to drift toward extremes. Theories of reciprocal radicalization and fringe fluidity are therefore highly instructive. Reciprocal radicalization suggests that growing power and success of groups aligned with one extremist ideology will fuel recruitment and encourage activity by groups of ostensibly opposing ideologies. Interactions between groups locked into reciprocal radicalization often result in “a bizarre mixture of cooperation, competition, and overt fighting between different groups.”128 Another relevant dynamic is fringe fluidity.129 This is a radicalization pathway in which individuals transition from one form of extremism to another. Fringe fluidity demonstrates how extremists prioritize common grievances, goals, and enemies even when their overarching ideologies conflict.130 Brenton Tarrant, the March 2019 Christchurch mosque killer, is one recent example. Tarrant shifted between several extremist ideologies, ultimately declaring himself an ecofascist at the time of his attack.131

In an era of political polarization, extremists may seize the opportunity to draw recruits and mobilize from a growing menu of overlapping and sometimes conflicting militant ideologies, making fringe fluidity an increasingly powerful force. Likewise, evidence of reciprocal radicalization among extremist groups demands attention, as extremists of one persuasion have no shortage of opposing forces to radicalize them. The U.S. government should devote resources to studying these phenomena.

 

RESIST THE TEMPTATION TO PICK SIDES

In recent years, politicians have too often spoken on issues of extremist violence with ambiguity because of partisan considerations. Political leaders must recognize the role they may play in furthering extremist narratives. Choosing a side serves to prioritize goals and enemies as the extremists would. As political factions and movements in the United States resort to violence or the threat of violence to pursue objectives, the government must be unified and precise in its messaging: Political violence is completely intolerable in a democratic society.

 

CREATE ARCHITECTURE FOR THE AGE OF MASS ATTACKS

WSEs have in the past conducted mass attacks in public spaces, some of which have left significant numbers dead. Unfortunately, violent extremists of various ideological stripes, as well as non-ideological mass attackers, are certain to strike again. In too many attacks, man-made structures have aided attackers and worked against those trying to escape. Victims have been trapped by limited exits or prevented from securing rooms because doors do not lock from the inside. One solution is crisis architecture, an architectural paradigm that offers integrated tactical, psychological, and technological security measures while preserving function and aesthetics.132

Access the FDD Foreign Policy Tracker HERE.

June 14, 2021 | FDD Tracker: June 4 – 14, 2021

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: Early June

Trend Overview

Edited by David Adesnik

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker, where FDD’s experts and scholars assess the administration’s foreign policy every two weeks. As always, they provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they study. With President Joe Biden on his first overseas trip, foreign policy has taken center stage. At the G7 summit in the United Kingdom, Biden announced the United States will purchase and donate half a billion doses of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine to low-income nations, “with no strings attached.” Today the president is in Brussels for his first NATO summit, while the Taliban surges across Afghanistan. On the gathering’s sidelines, Biden will have his first in-person meeting with his Turkish counterpart, whose conduct consistently undermines the transatlantic alliance. The sternest test for Biden will come on Wednesday when he meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Will Putin dial back his provocations after the summit, or will he only emerge emboldened? Check back in two weeks to see if Biden capitalized on these opportunities.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

Happy Birthday U.S. Army.

 

1. This was one of the worst weeks for China on the world stage in a while

2. Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility

3. U.S. Fight Against Chinese 5G Efforts Shifts From Threats to Incentives

4. Heads of G7 agree to invest on B3W infrastructure

5. How Congress can fight Hamas's use of human shields

6. The personal impact of an American general on an Afghan officer

7.  FDD | Biden Lifts Sanctions on Firms Linked to Key Assad Backer

8. FDD | What to Expect From the Biden-Putin Summit

9. Beijing Protests a Lab Leak Too Much

10. How States Can Respond If Biden Lifts Iran Sanctions

11. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China

12. NATO allies seek clarity on maintaining secure facilities in Afghanistan following troop withdrawal

13. G7 ballyhoos challenge to China’s Belt and Road

14. Imperfect competition between US and China: Statesman

15. Ransomware’s suspected Russian roots point to a long detente between the Kremlin and hackers

16. The West is uniting to confront China. How worried should Beijing be?

17. NATO to look eastward and inward at summit

18. Biden’s B3W proposal no serious threat to China’s BRI

19. Biden meets with foreign leaders as ambassadorships sit vacant

20. The Party Is Not Forever | by Minxin Pei

21. US father and son admit helping Ghosn flee Japan

22. Why We Can’t Move On From Jan. 6

23. Analysis: Mystery of 1999 US stealth jet shootdown returns with twist

 

1. This was one of the worst weeks for China on the world stage in a while

news.yahoo.com · by Linette Lopez

Excerpts: “Legendary American diplomat George Kennan - known for outlining the US policy of containing the USSR during the Cold War - used to say that the US people are always about 10 years behind its diplomats when it comes to seeing danger from abroad. Lecturing back in 1950 he compared democracies to a giant prehistoric monster "with a body as long as this room and a brain the size of a pin" that needs to be directly confronted with a problem before it awakens from the "comfortable primeval mud." But when a challenge does gain our attention, Kennan said, the country lashes out with "such blind determination that he not only destroys his adversary but largely wrecks his native habitat."

Perhaps the US has learned something from Kennan. Consider the Senate's passage of a 2,400 page bill aimed at shoring up the US as an economic and technological superpower. The size and scope of the bill shows that our leaders are trying to meet a challenge before it's an emergency.

 

2. Exclusive: US assessing reported leak at Chinese nuclear power facility

CNN · by Zachary Cohen

For those who remember - Three Mile Island or Chernobyl?

Excerpts: “While US officials have deemed the situation does not currently pose a severe safety threat to workers at the plant or Chinese public, it is unusual that a foreign company would unilaterally reach out to the American government for help when its Chinese state-owned partner is yet to acknowledge a problem exists. The scenario could put the US in a complicated situation should the leak continue or become more severe without being fixed.

However, concern was significant enough that the National Security Council held multiple meetings last week as they monitored the situation, including two at the deputy level and another gathering at the assistant secretary level on Friday, which was led by NSC Senior Director for China Laura Rosenberger and Senior Director for Arms Control Mallory Stewart, according to US officials.

...

Still, Rofer, the retired nuclear scientist, warns that a gas leak could indicate bigger problems.

"If they do have a gas leak, that indicates some of their containment is broken," Rofer said. "It also argues that maybe some of the fuel elements could be broken, which would be a more serious problem."

"That would be a reason for shutting down the reactor and would then require the reactor to be refueled," Rofer told CNN, adding that removing the fuel elements must be done carefully.

For now, US officials do not think the leak is at "crisis level," but acknowledge it is increasing and bears monitoring, the source familiar with the situation told CNN.

While there is a chance the situation could become a disaster, US officials currently believe it is more likely that it will not become one, the source added.

 

3. U.S. Fight Against Chinese 5G Efforts Shifts From Threats to Incentives

WSJ · by Stu Woo and Drew Hinshaw

Excerpts: “Ms. Kaptur said such countries still have weak economies and should be offered alternatives to Beijing-backed infrastructure projects. “They are countries at risk,” she said.

Many Central and Eastern European countries, including Romania, Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states, have been broadly receptive to American arguments against Huawei. Many also view strong military relations with the U.S. as vital after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.

Many have been skeptical of China, too. In 2019, Poland jailed a Huawei executive on espionage charges, while Baltic and Romanian governments have taken steps to limit their countries’ use of Huawei. Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis has demanded China replace its current ambassador to his country, after a series of public spats largely about the role of Huawei in the country.

Yet the Chinese government has found partners in the region, particularly in Hungary, whose capital Budapest is hosting a new Huawei research center. Huawei opened a similar center in Serbia last year. Several countries have also signed up for Beijing’s Belt and Road program, in which Chinese government-backed institutions largely finance and build highways, ports and other infrastructure.

 

4. Heads of G7 agree to invest on B3W infrastructure

donga.com · June 14, 2021

The Korean press is picking up on the B3W narrative.

Excerpt: “According to the White House, heads of G7 countries including U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to invest on the global infrastructure at the G7 summit held in Cornwall, the U.K. on Saturday (local time). The project is called “B3W (Build Back Better World),” which was named after Biden’s presidential campaign “Build Back Better.” It is garnering attention as it is the first alternative of advanced countries against China’s project.

 

5. How Congress can fight Hamas's use of human shields

The Hill · by Orde F. Kittrie and Matthew Zweig · June 11, 2021

Conclusion: ”Finally, Congress should request that the administration pursue a legally binding UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) focused on countering human shields use by terrorists. It would not have to address a particular situation, armed conflict, or illicit armed group, and may not draw a veto from China or from Russia (which itself has repeatedly complained of human shields use against it).The resolution could require all member states to take steps to hinder, and impose consequences for, human shields use. This includes adopting national legislation criminalizing human shields use. Similar resolutions have already required national legislation and other measures to counter terrorism, the recruitment of foreign fighters, and the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

Congress has led the way before in combating the use of human shields; it should lead again.

 

6. The personal impact of an American general on an Afghan officer

militarytimes.com · by Col. Abdul Rahman Rahmani · June 11, 2021

 

7. FDD | Biden Lifts Sanctions on Firms Linked to Key Assad Backer

fdd.org · by David Adesnik · June 11, 2021

Excerpts: “The appearance of hesitation to hold the Assad regime accountable comes at an inopportune moment as Biden prepares for his first summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin. A major issue of contention there will be Putin’s readiness to employ starvation as a weapon against Syrian civilians who remain in areas outside the Assad regime’s control. Specifically, Putin may employ Russia’s veto to block the UN Security Council’s reauthorization of aid deliveries into northwest Syria directly from Turkey, a route that bypasses Damascus, thereby preventing Assad from blocking or diverting the shipments.

If the administration did lift sanctions on ASM and Silver Pine as an indicator of goodwill toward Assad, Moscow, or Tehran, that would be a mistake, since they have no record of reciprocating. Within the past week, Syrian shelling and Russian air raids killed even more civilians. Concessions at this point would likely communicate a lack of resolve on Washington’s part.

The administration should quickly clarify why it chose to delist two of Foz’s companies. If it alleges their conduct has changed, it should present evidence of that change, since Foz and his other companies remain leading contributors to the Assad regime’s finances. More broadly, the administration should clarify its still-undefined policy toward Syria and appoint a special envoy of a stature comparable to those who served under the previous administration.

 

8. FDD | What to Expect From the Biden-Putin Summit

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · June 11, 2021

Excerpt: “The summary above is just a cursory look at the points of tension between the U.S. and Russia. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated it does not think that relations between the U.S. and Russia “need to continue on a negative trajectory.”

 

9. Beijing Protests a Lab Leak Too Much

WSJ · by Perry Link

China as a Shakespearean tragedy?

Excerpt: “The Chinese Communist Party’s official account of the virus is that it “jumped” from bats to humans at a wet market not far from the Wuhan lab. The city government was quick to close down that market, seal it off and provide the world with photos showing that the sealing had been done. Why were the authorities so swift and conspicuous? Because they suspected the wet market or because they wanted the world to? If they were certain that Mother Nature was the culprit, why silence their scientists and seal laboratory records? And why begin a vicious cyberstruggle against someone who records daily life as she sees it?

 

10. How States Can Respond If Biden Lifts Iran Sanctions

National Review Online · by Richard Goldberg · June 11, 2021

Excerpts: “Governors could get even more creative. Willie Sutton infamously said he robbed banks because “that’s where the money is.” The same is true for effective sanctions policy — target the banks and financial transactions.

The State of Florida passed an Iran banking law in 2012 that required all chartered banks to certify that they did not engage in transactions with the Central Bank of Iran or other dirty Iranian banks. The hiccup: The list of those companies would be based on the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions list, which isn’t much help as the Biden administration prepares to lift most Iran sanctions.

There may be an easy fix for Florida and other interested governors. As it happens, foreign banks must apply to state regulators to open offices and establish representation. States could add a simple certification requirement for existing and future applicants: With an exception for trade in food and medicine, the bank must pledge it will not facilitate transactions with or for any entity in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

 

11. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China

dailynk.com · Ha Yoon Ah · June 14, 2021

As Frost wrote: "good fences make good neighbors."

 

12. NATO allies seek clarity on maintaining secure facilities in Afghanistan following troop withdrawal

The Washington Post · by Karen DeYoung · June 13, 2021

A lot of details:”Asked about the airport and medical facility in Kabul, McKenzie said “our plans are very far advanced on what our posture is going to look like after we complete the withdrawal” of U.S. forces “and of course our NATO and other partners there.”

But while “I recognize it’s a subject of abiding interest to many people,” he said, making such information public could give tactical advantage “to those who would attack us.”

Health-care standards in Kabul are so poor that most embassies would be forced to shut down if the medical facility adjacent to the international airport, equipped to provide care to diplomats and NATO personnel, although without an intensive care capability, was not able to remain operational and in a secure environment.

 

13. G7 ballyhoos challenge to China’s Belt and Road

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · June 14, 2021

The acronym B3W may be catching on.

Excerpts: “US President Joe Biden, who has placed China at the heart of his global strategy, has been the driving force behind the mega-initiatives in tandem with key allies. The stated aim is not to compete with China on a dollar-to-dollar or vaccine-to-vaccine basis per se, but instead provide the rules of the road for a transparent and democratic global order.

It marks a major departure from the days of the Trump administration, which alienated G7 allies with its bellicose and “America First” protectionist rhetoric, while constantly criticizing China without providing any concrete alternatives.

In a statement, the White House described the B3W as an indispensable initiative to “help narrow the $40+ trillion infrastructure need in the developing world, which has been exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic.”

“The driving animating purpose of this G7 summit is to show that democracy can deliver against the biggest challenges we’re facing in the world,” a senior Biden administration official told the media, underscoring the ideological element of the grouping as a club of like-minded democracies.

 

14. Imperfect competition between US and China: Statesman

straitstimes.com · June 14, 2021

A view from India.

 

15. Ransomware’s suspected Russian roots point to a long detente between the Kremlin and hackers

The Washington Post · by Isabelle Khurshudyan and Loveday Morris · June 12, 2021

"Detente?" This is more like Hybrid Warfare (from Frank Hoffman):

“A hybrid threat transcends a blend of regular and irregular tactics. More than a decade ago, it was defined as an adversary that “simultaneously and adaptively employs a fused mix of conventional weapons, irregular tactics, catastrophic terrorism, and criminal behavior in the battlespace to obtain desired political objectives.”54 The criminal, or more broadly “socially disruptive behavior,” and mass terrorism aspects should not be overlooked, but the fusion of advanced military capabilities with irregular forces and tactics is key, and has appeared repeatedly during the past decade from Hezbollah to the Russian campaigns in Georgia and Ukraine.55 Hezbollah’s method of fighting Israel as is described by its leader Hassan Nasrallah, is an organic response to its security dilemma and “not a conventional army and not a guerrilla force, it is something in between.”56 As lethal as Hezbollah has been in the past decade, we should be concerned about the lessons it is learning in Syria from the Russians.57

Hybrid threats can also be created by a state actor using a proxy force. A proxy force sponsored by a major power can generate hybrid threats readily using advanced military capabilities provided by the sponsor. Proxy wars, appealing to some as “warfare on the cheap” are historically ubiquitous but chronically understudied.58

 

16. The West is uniting to confront China. How worried should Beijing be?

CNN · by Nectar Gan, Jill Disis and Ben Westcott

 

17. NATO to look eastward and inward at summit

Defense News · by Sebastian Sprenger · June 13, 2021

Excerpts: “The summit is also expected to formally order the production of a new NATO strategic concept, to conclude within a year. That work amounts to a wholesale revision of alliance guidance, to which member nations align their national defense plans. The most recent concept hails from 2010, predating Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine that changed the strategic calculus for European governments.

“The new strategic concept would be a milestone, as so many issues regarding threats and deterrence flow from it,” said German lawmaker Tobias Lindner, the Green Party’s point man for defense issues in the Bundestag.

The topic of deterrence — nuclear, that is — is expected to make a reprise in Germany following the federal election in late September, where the Greens have a shot at joining the next governing coalition, according to recent polls.

Whenever major defense questions come up in the country, Germany’s continued participation in NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement — meaning German Tornado aircraft carrying U.S. atomic bombs into a hypothetical war – ends up on the table.

 

18.  Biden’s B3W proposal no serious threat to China’s BRI

asiatimes.com · by  Dnyanesh Kamat · June 14, 2021

I expect to see a lot of this criticism. I had expected to read more already but perhaps it is just too soon.

As I understand it, funding from BRI does have strings attached. The biggest being if you default on the loans.

But here is the author's view in conclusion: “The world would rather sign up to BRI projects, based on hard-nosed realpolitik, than America’s B3W, based on woolly feel-good values that the US is very obviously only paying lip service to.

B3W found a vague single-line mention in the communiqué issued at the end of the recent Group of Seven summit. This is perhaps a sign that the rest of the G7 members recognized it for what it was – verbal gimmickry aimed at a domestic audience by a newly elected president desperate for a foreign-policy victory.

 

19.  Biden meets with foreign leaders as ambassadorships sit vacant

The Hill · by Brett Samuels · June 13, 2021

 

20.  The Party Is Not Forever | by Minxin Pei

project-syndicate.org · by Minxin Pei · June 11, 2021

I had not heard this thesis before. Xi is adopting the north Korean model??

Excerpts: “That is perhaps why the Singapore model has lost its luster in the Xi era, whereas the North Korean model – totalitarian political repression, a cult of the supreme leader, and juche (economic self-reliance) – has grown more appealing. True, China has not yet become a giant North Korea, but a number of trends over the last eight years have moved the country in that direction.

...

Politically, the rule of fear has returned, not only for ordinary people, but also for the CPC’s elites, as Xi has reinstated purges under the guise of a perpetual anti-corruption campaign. Censorship is at its highest level in the post-Mao era, and Xi’s regime has all but eliminated space for civil society, including NGOs. The authorities have even reined in China’s freewheeling private entrepreneurs with regulatory crackdowns, criminal prosecution, and confiscation of wealth.

And Xi has assiduously nurtured a personality cult. These days, the front page of the People’s Daily newspaper is filled with coverage of Xi’s activities and personal edicts. The abridged history of the CPC, recently released to mark the party’s centennial, devotes a quarter of its content to Xi’s eight years in power, while giving only half as much space to Deng Xiaoping, the CPC’s true savior.

Economically, China has yet to embrace juche fully. But the CPC’s new Five-Year Plan projects a vision of technological self-sufficiency and economic security centered on domestic growth. Although the party has a reasonable excuse – America’s strategy of economic and technological decoupling leaves it no alternative – few Western democracies will want to remain economically coupled with a country that sees North Korea as its future political model.

When China’s leaders toast the CPC’s centennial, they should ask whether the party is on the right track. If it is not, the CPC’s upcoming milestone may be its last.

 

21. US father and son admit helping Ghosn flee Japan

asiatimes.com · by Hiroshi Hiyama · June 14, 2021

Japan has an extremely high conviction rate because they do not go to trial until defendants effectively confess or plead guilty.

 

22. Why We Can’t Move On From Jan. 6

WSJ · by Peggy Noonan

 

23. Analysis: Mystery of 1999 US stealth jet shootdown returns with twist

asia.nikkei.com

Some fascinating "analysis."

 

----------------

 

"I am a Soldier, I fight where I am told, and I win where I fight."

- George S. Patton

 

 “People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.” 

- Richard Grenier while discussing the works of George Orwell

 

"American soldiers in battle don't fight for what some president says on T.V., they don't fight for mom, apple pie, the American flag...they fight for one another."

-Hal Moore

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

 

Happy Birthday U.S. Army.

 

1. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of Korean Peninsula, welcomes Washington's readiness towards Pyongyang diplomacy

2. Moon signs on to Biden's statement on freedoms

3. Ordinary Pyongyang residents have not received government rations since mid-April 

4. N.K. leader sends birthday gift to miner to emphasize 'self-reliance'

5. Moon says S. Korea will push for COVID-19 vaccine supplies if North Korea agrees

6. South Korean shipbuilders unveil competing carrier designs

7. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China

8. Korea to conduct Dokdo defense drill this week

9. Japan-South Korea Spat at G-7 Shows Biden’s Challenge With China

10. Soured ties between Korea, Japan exposed at G7

11. Korea's Balancing Act Is Getting More Precarious

12. “S. Korean agents are painting Chinese banknotes with coronavirus and sending them.” Kim Jong-un gives direct orders to clean up money transfer brokers.

13. Worker’s Party of Korea Central Committee Plenary Session: No Details Yet

 

1. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of Korean Peninsula, welcomes Washington's readiness towards Pyongyang diplomacy

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · June 14, 2021

It seems the ROK and US have gotten every major organization (Quad, G7, UN) and major countries to support denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Everybody but north Korea!

 

2. Moon signs on to Biden's statement on freedoms

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Ser Myo-Ja  · June 14, 2021

human rights and democratic rule of law

We have to wait and see what kind of blowback there is for South Korea from China.

 

3. Ordinary Pyongyang residents have not received government rations since mid-April 

dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · June 14, 2021

Not a good sign. When the public distribution throughout the north collapse during the arduous march of 94-96 the people developed markets to survive. But with the crackdowns due to COVID and the closure of the Chinese border, the citizens of Pyongyang have no relief valve. What happens when we begin to see unrest in Pyongyang? (I am sure that there will be an immediate crackdown and anyone found resisting will be sent to the gulags (with three generations) if they are not executed).

 

4. N.K. leader sends birthday gift to miner to emphasize 'self-reliance'

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · June 14, 2021

An interesting development.

Excerpts: “The KCNA praised Ko and his team members as "heroes" for contributing to increased mineral production and for reaching their goals ahead of schedule for the first year of the five-year economic plan unveiled at a party congress in January.

It is rare for Kim to deliver such a gift to an ordinary miner on his 60th birthday. Such a gift has usually been granted to independence fighters and those aged 100 or older.

The North appears to be stressing the achievements of miners from the Komdok region that have helped build a more self-reliant economy during the 1970s by exporting minerals.

 

5. Moon says S. Korea will push for COVID-19 vaccine supplies if North Korea agrees

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 14, 2021

IF north Korea agrees. That is a big "if."

When would north Korea be ready to ask for help? How bad will it have to get inside north Korea?

Excerpt: "We are not aware of whether North Korea has taken any position with regard to that and there is relevant data (on its coronavirus situation)," he said. "In case of any signal from North Korea (for requesting help), we will of course help."

 

6. South Korean shipbuilders unveil competing carrier designs

Defense News · by Brian Kim · June 12, 2021

Excerpts: “The shipyard displayed a 1-to-400 scale model of its proposed carrier, which would be 270 meters long and 60 meters wide. The carrier, with its twin island superstructures, would have a displacement of 30,000-35,000 tons and a full-load displacement of 450,000-500,000 tons, according to an HHI spokesman.

“This new design suggests a flight deck 30 percent larger than the former design and an optional ski jump ramp over the bow with a view to improve operational capabilities of fighter jets onboard,” the spokesman told Defense News on June 11. “The modular ski jump could be removed and the flight deck could be modified to accept a catapult.”

The carrier would be able to carry up to 16 short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing aircraft on its flight deck and a further eight in its hanger, he said. The ski jump-styled takeoff ramp would permit jets without the STOVL capability to more easily launch from the ship. In addition, some 24 helicopters could be flown with the CVX.

The proposed model has an auxiliary deck at the stern for operating small rotary-wing drones and an adapted well deck from which to deploy unmanned surface vehicles or unmanned underwater vehicles.

The spokesman revealed his company has a contract with U.K.-based Babcock International for consultancy services related to the basic design of the CVX. Babcock is a member of the Aircraft Carrier Alliance, which built both the Prince of Wales and Queen Elizabeth carriers.

 

7. North Korea tries to accelerate building of walls and fences along border with China

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · June 14, 2021

As Frost wrote: "good fences make good neighbors."

 

8. Korea to conduct Dokdo defense drill this week

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 14, 2021

This will not help Korea-Japan relations.

 

9. Japan-South Korea Spat at G-7 Shows Biden’s Challenge With China

Bloomberg · by Jon Herskovitz · June 14, 2021

Not a good sign:

“The two sides couldn’t even agree on why the meeting didn’t take place. The Seoul-based Yonhap News Agency on Monday quoted an unnamed South Korean Foreign Ministry official as saying Japan broke a tentative agreement for the two leaders to have a longer meeting. But when the South Korean side tried to follow up, they received no response from Japanese officials, the report said.

That official told Yonhap that Japan didn’t want to talk because of Seoul’s plans to hold military drills this week on and around islets that Koreans call Dokdo, which are claimed by both countries but occupied by South Korea. Previous drills around the islands that Japan calls Takeshima have been met with protests from Tokyo and caused strains in ties.

Katsunobu Kato, the Japanese government’s top spokesman, denied there was any tentative agreement for a meeting, adding at a news briefing Monday such a report was “extremely regrettable.” He also said Tokyo has called on Seoul to cancel the military exercises.

Whatever the situation may actually be, it’s a problem that isn’t going away for Biden.

 

10. Soured ties between Korea, Japan exposed at G7

The Korea Times · by · June 14, 2021

I think we all thought (or at least hoped) some kind of meeting would take place despite all sides appearing to manage expectations before the G7.

Excerpts: “Claiming that Korea was worsening the situation, Suga also demanded that Moon resolve the issues involving wartime forced labor and sex slavery, over which the two countries have ongoing disputes.

Meanwhile, according to Japan's Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper, the Japanese government told U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson that it did not want to expand the G7. Korea, along with Australia, India and South Africa, were invited to the G7 Summit as guest countries.

Japan's opposition to the expansion is seen as an effort to remain Asia's lone G7 member country.

When former U.S. President Donald Trump mentioned a possible G7 expansion to include Korea, last year, the Japanese government made clear its opposition to Korea participating in the group of advanced economies.

In fact, the expansion of the G7 was not discussed during the summit at all, although it is not known whether Japan's voice was an influencing factor.

 

11. Korea's Balancing Act Is Getting More Precarious

english.chosun.com

I expect we will see some Chinese retaliation against South Korea in some form of political and economic warfare.

 

12. “S. Korean agents are painting Chinese banknotes with coronavirus and sending them.” Kim Jong-un gives direct orders to clean up money transfer brokers.

asiapress.org

QAnon does not have a lock on conspiracy theories.

 

13. Worker’s Party of Korea Central Committee Plenary Session: No Details Yet

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 13, 2021

But we have to observe for indicators that the regime may try to "externalize" its domestic problem.

 

----------------

 

"I am a Soldier, I fight where I am told, and I win where I fight."

- George S. Patton

 

 “People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.” 

- Richard Grenier while discussing the works of George Orwell

 

"American soldiers in battle don't fight for what some president says on T.V., they don't fight for mom, apple pie, the American flag...they fight for one another."

-Hal Moore

You can access SOF News HERE. 

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. Topics include RSM Cdr, women and AFSOC, SF in the Arctic, Marine Raider trial, critical race theory, armed overwatch program, UK’s E Squadron, SOF history, OTH CT operations, border crisis, and more.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. House tees up war authorization repeal while Senate waits on White House

2. Opinion | Don’t cede the Asia-Pacific to China. The U.S. must learn from its TPP mistake.

3. Rare earth metals at the heart of China's rivalry with US, Europe

4. G7 set to agree ‘green belt and road’ plan to tackle China’s influence

5. U.S. contractor to pay $5.28 million to Abu Ghraib prisoners

6. 'Be ready': Australia warned about China's 'grey zone' war

7. FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership

8. 'Build Back Better World': G7 leaders back developing world spending plan to rival China 

9. UN rights commissioner warns of escalating violence in Myanmar

10. FBI Using NSA to Conduct Unconstitutional ‘Warrantless’ Searches for ‘Extremists’

11. China cautions G7: 'small' groups don't rule the world

12. 2021 G7 Leaders' communiqué: Our shared agenda for global action to build back better

13. 'Xi Jinping is my spiritual leader': China's education drive in Tibet

14. The US military is tearing itself apart over 'wokeness' and it's only helping America's enemies

15. Biden’s Blue Dot seeks to derail China’s Belt and Road

16. My Mother Eleni: The Search for her Executioners (published in 1983 about the Greek Civil War)

 

1. House tees up war authorization repeal while Senate waits on White House

Defense News · by Joe Gould · June 13, 2021

This could be a very interesting debate. How this turns out may very well indicate the direction of US foreign policy and national security for years to come.

Excerpt: “A National Security Council spokesman confirmed the White House is working with Kaine and others, and that Biden wants to ensure the existing authorizations for the use of military force “are replaced with a narrow and specific framework that will ensure we can protect Americans from terrorist threats while ending the forever wars.”

The NSC is “committed to working with Congress as they move this legislation forward,” he added.

 

2. Opinion | Don’t cede the Asia-Pacific to China. The U.S. must learn from its TPP mistake.

The Washington Post · by Tom Carper and John Cornyn · June 13, 2021

Pulling out of TPP was arguably one of the biggest strategic mistakes of the previous administration. Think of where we could potentially in terms of the economic strength of the TPP versus malign economic behavior of authoritarian regimes.

 

3. Rare earth metals at the heart of China's rivalry with US, Europe

RFI · June 13, 2021

Excerpts: “China is expected to remain dominant for some time to come, but Schafer said that if recycling is scaled up, "20 to 30 percent of Europe's rare earth magnet needs by 2030 could be sourced domestically in the EU from literally zero today."

The desire to accelerate rare earth production comes amid a shortage of semiconductors, which are essential for the computing and automotive industries and mostly manufactured in Asia.

The scarcity "has caused global manufacturers to think about their supply chain in a new way, and think about vulnerabilities," a spokesman for MP Materials said, adding that several European automotive and wind power firms are already in contact with the company.

 

4.G7 set to agree ‘green belt and road’ plan to tackle China’s influence

Financial Times · by Jasmine Cameron-Chileshe · June 12, 2021

Excerpts: “Johnson wants to focus on supporting green initiatives and has been wary of presenting the initiative as an “anti-China” move. British officials say they want the G7 to “show what we are for, not who we are against”.

But the White House favours a wider package of infrastructure support and is explicit about wanting to provide a new counterweight to China’s influence.

“We have a slightly narrower focus,” said one British official.

On Saturday G7 leaders held talks to co-ordinate China strategy. “There was broad agreement that we should co-operate with Beijing on things like fighting climate change, compete in areas like global supply chains and contest on issues like human rights,” said one official briefed on the talks.

 

5.  U.S. contractor to pay $5.28 million to Abu Ghraib prisoners

CBS News · June 12, 2021

Excerpts: “In the case against CACI, four Iraqis who say they were tortured are seeking compensation from the company, which provided interrogators to the U.S. military during the war. CACI has chosen to continue its fight against the lawsuit. Azmy said a trial is expected this summer.

In its defense four years ago against the lawsuit, L-3 said the fact that the claims in the case "cannot be brought against the government means that they also cannot be brought against L-3."

"No court in the United States has allowed aliens -- detained on the battlefield or in the course of postwar occupation and military operations by the U.S. military -- to seek damages for their detention," the company told the federal court four years ago. "Yet these plaintiffs bring claims seeking money damages for their detention and treatment while in the custody of the U.S. military in the midst of a belligerent occupation in Iraq."

Allowing the case to proceed "would require a wholly unprecedented injection of the judiciary into wartime military operations and occupation conduct against the local population, in particular the conditions of confinement and interrogation for intelligence gathering," L-3 added.

 

6. 'Be ready': Australia warned about China's 'grey zone' war

au.news.yahoo.com

A very strong statement from Foriegn Minister Yu: “Dr Joseph Wu spoke to The Weekend Australian and said China was preparing for war and "we all need to be ready for that".

"The new phenomenon we are seeing is part of what I would describe as China's 'grey zone' operations, where it sends in its maritime militia – large fishing boats armed, operated and following the orders of China’s navy – to harass and intimidate their perceived enemies," he said.

"This is something Australia hasn't experienced yet – but it is coming."

 

7. FACT SHEET: President Biden and G7 Leaders Launch Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership

White House Briefings

President Biden used B3W (said we are calling it B3W) in his remarks at his press conference today from the UK. As I asked in another message, have we developed the information and influence campaign to dominate the narrative? And will our G7 and D10 partners embrace this and begin to support the narrative? We will have to goggle B3W every day to see how effective the new plan and the names are growing in usage. Is the GEC at State taking the lead?

 

8.  'Build Back Better World': G7 leaders back developing world spending plan to rival China 

Euro News

The media is beginning to describe the B3W plan (and this is from yesterday). Perhaps after POTUS' press conference today and his use of the term it will begin to grow legs.

9. UN rights commissioner warns of escalating violence in Myanmar

bdnews24.com 

This is one of those predictions that unfortunately is likely to come true.

 

10. FBI Using NSA to Conduct Unconstitutional ‘Warrantless’ Searches for ‘Extremists’

americandefensenews.com · by Paul Crespo

Excerpts: “In the newly released FISA report, a judge said the FBI’s Fourth Amendment violations were still “apparently widespread.”

The Daily Mail also noted that it is unclear from the FISA report whether the FBI uncovered any criminal ‘extremist’ behavior or made any arrests resulting from the searches. Also unknown is what the Bureau did with seized data that was harmless or irrelevant to its search.

What is also unclear is just how many law abiding Americans had their personal data viewed by the FBI in its search for “racially motivated” extremists.

A senior FBI official told the Daily Mail that the FBI had taken ‘numerous steps’ to comply with the FISA court guidance over the past 18 months.

 

11. China cautions G7: 'small' groups don't rule the world

Reuters

Is China feeling pressure?

 

12. 2021 G7 Leaders' communiqué: Our shared agenda for global action to build back better

Consilum · June 13, 2021

The 25 page communique is at this link.

Per my previous comments about the information and influence campaign and the narrative: "Build back Better" is in the very title of the communique. It looks like some good work has been done by the diplomats and actions officers working on this.

The question is can B3W take on a major role in the narrative. B3W versus BRI? 

 

13. 'Xi Jinping is my spiritual leader': China's education drive in Tibet

Reuters · by Martin Pollard

Incredible indoctrination attempts.

Excerpts: “Civilians and religious figures who the government arranged to be interviewed on the five-day trip pledged loyalty to the Communist Party and Xi.

Asked who his spiritual leader was, a monk at Lhasa's historic Jokhang temple named Xi.

"I'm not drunk ... I speak freely to you," said the monk named Lhakpa, speaking from a courtyard overlooked by security cameras and government observers.

The portraits of Xi were visible at almost all sites visited by Reuters during the trip to Tibet, where journalists are banned from entering outside of such tours. It was not clear when the posters and flags were put up.

"The posters coincide with a massive political education programme which is called 'feeling gratitude to the party' education," said Robert Barnett, a Tibetan studies veteran scholar at the University of London's School of Oriental and African Studies.

 

14. The US military is tearing itself apart over 'wokeness' and it's only helping America's enemies

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · June 12, 2021

 

15.  Biden’s Blue Dot seeks to derail China’s Belt and Road

asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · June 9, 2021

B3W appears to be derived from BDN (Blue Dot Network). Can we keep track of the acronyms (and we thought the. US military overused acronyms)

 

16. My Mother Eleni: The Search for her Executioners (published in 1983 about the Greek Civil War)

The New York Times · by Nicholas Gage · April 3, 1983

One of the great things about social media for me is when friends post interesting information and articles that I have missed or not come across. And we should be grateful to the NY Times archives. A friend posted this on Facebook and I think this is an interesting Sunday read about the tragedy of revolutions and resistance (in this case the Greek Civil War following WWII). This is the human domain of war and its long-term effects.

 

----------------

 

"It is by its promise of a sense of power that evil often attracts the weak."

- Eric Hoffer

 

“Second we find in our prerevolutionary society definite and indeed very bitter class antagonisms, though these antagonisms seem rather more complicated than the cruder Marxists will allow.”

- Crane Brinton

 

"First, I continue to think that people, with all their diverse identities, desires, and beliefs, should be central to our analyses of conflict. This means that individuals should be the prism through which to examine the effects of social structures, beliefs, and the possibilities for mobilization and political action. Is “relative deprivation” the best concept for doing so? In my own later writings I have used the words grievances and sense of injustice to capture the essence of the state of mind that motivates people to political action. Whichever phrase is used, the essential first step in any analysis is to understand what people’s grievances are and where they come from."

-Ted Gurr

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm peninsula denuke goal, cooperation on vaccines, Myanmar

2.  As the Dust Settles, How Healthy is the ROK-US Alliance?

3. G7's rivalry with China complicates Korea's balancing act

4. Moon joins G-7 summit, vows financial support for global vaccine supply

5. Moon calls for global unity to strengthen open societies at G-7 summit

6.  Moon meets Suga at G-7, but bilateral session not in the cards

7. ‘Assassins,’ about death of N. Korea’s Kim Jong-nam, denied art film status

8. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of N. Korea, welcomes Washington's diplomacy towards Pyongyang: communique

9. North Korean Missiles Continue to Pose a Big Threat

10. Kim Jong-un health panic: North Korea regime could collapse - US intelligence on alert

 

1. Top diplomats of S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm peninsula denuke goal, cooperation on vaccines, Myanmar

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 13, 2021

It does appear the ROK and US are working to operationalize and execute many of the agreements and initiatives announced in the summit. This is a positive trend.

 

2. As the Dust Settles, How Healthy is the ROK-US Alliance?

38north.org · by Sukjoon Yoon · June 11, 2021

A cautionary analysis. I am optimistic about the alliance but I think the problems with the north Korea agenda lie with Kim Jong-un though we have to recognize the difference in views between the ROK and US toward north Korea.

Conclusion: “For the present, the ROK-US alliance remains intact, but there is considerable uncertainty about its future. “There is an expanded vision for the Indo-Pacific Strategy, in which South Korea plays a bigger regional and global role, both in security terms and more generally.” But it is unclear whether, beyond rhetoric, any real-world changes will result. The summit also provided very little information on what the US and South Korea are actually going to do about North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile threats. Indeed, there are significant differences between Moon and Biden on how to deal with North Korea, with Moon still hoping to make short-term progress on the inter-Korean peace initiative and the US still putting the issue of denuclearization first. Despite the positive tone of the summit and Moon’s endorsement of the Biden administration’s new negotiating strategy, there were no indications of how to get the North Koreans back to the table.

While the summit joint statement will be presented as a win for both presidents, Moon has been obliged to tilt the South toward the United States’ policy on China, and to that extent, the Biden

 

3. G7's rivalry with China complicates Korea's balancing act

The Korea Times · by Kwon Mee-yoo · June 13, 2021

I know it gets old to read about the "shrimp among whales" analogy but this is just another example of how it aptly describes Korea's situation.

I wonder if B3W is going to catch on as an acronym. If it does then the G7 narrative will be competitive with the Chinese BRI or OBOR. I hope the supporting information and influence campaign from the GEC at State and NSC for the White House is in place and coordinated with the other members of the G7 and D10. If this is an important initiative and one the G7 and D10 plan to sincerely get behind we need to get the narrative right and dominate the information and influence space.

Excerpts: “Earlier on Saturday, the White House also announced the launch of the "Build Back Better World" (B3W) project, a global infrastructure plan aimed to provide infrastructure support to developing and emerging countries.

The White House said that the B3W project will mobilize private-sector capital in a "transparent infrastructure partnership" to provide support in four areas ― climate, health, digital technology and gender equity and equality ― for developing countries hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"B3W will be global in scope, from Latin America and the Caribbean, to Africa, to the Indo-Pacific. Different G7 partners will have different geographic orientations, but the sum of the initiative will cover low- and middle-income countries across the world," the White House said in a statement.

 

4. Moon joins G-7 summit, vows financial support for global vaccine supply

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 13, 2021

South Korea has the opportunity to take the stage as a great middle power.

 

5. Moon calls for global unity to strengthen open societies at G-7 summit

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · June 13, 2021

This can be viewed as a statement contrary to Chinese interests and could be interpreted that the ROK comes down on the side closer to the Quad and G7 than to China.

Excerpts: “Moon briefed them on South Korea's experience in democratization and efforts to strengthen open societies, according to his office Cheong Wa Dae.

He emphasized the need for enhancing international collaboration to counter racialism, extremism and other threats to open societies as well as expanding free and fair trade and fostering an open economy.

He is scheduled to join another G-7 forum on "climate and nature" later in the day just before he wraps up his three-day stay in Cornwall, Britain. He is flying to Austria for a state visit, the second leg of his three-nation Europe tour that will also take him to Spain.”

 

6. Moon meets Suga at G-7, but bilateral session not in the cards

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · June 13, 2021

Interesting positioning of the world leaders in this photo.

 

7. ‘Assassins,’ about death of N. Korea’s Kim Jong-nam, denied art film status

m.koreaherald.com · by Kim Hae-yeon · June 10, 2021

Is this an attempt to appease north Korea?

 

8. G-7 calls for 'complete' denuclearization of N. Korea, welcomes Washington's diplomacy towards Pyongyang: communique

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · June 13, 2021

It is good to see the G7 acknowledge this.

 

9. North Korean Missiles Continue to Pose a Big Threat

The National Interest · by Eli Fuhrman · June 11, 2021

Excerpt: "With its development of more capable ballistic missile systems, some have pointed to the possibility that North Korea is actively working to develop the ability to defeat U.S. ballistic missile defenses. Recently developed North Korean SRBMs have shown themselves to potentially be capable of evading such systems, while the possible development of a reliable SLBM could allow North Korea to circumvent some defenses. North Korea’s large recently unveiled ICBM, meanwhile, could eventually support multiple re-entry vehicles, which could pose a challenge to U.S. missile defenses."

 

10. Kim Jong-un health panic: North Korea regime could collapse - US intelligence on alert

Express · by Brian McGleenon · June 13, 2021

There is probably no one in the CFC C2 and the USFK J2 that recalls that most of the indicators of north Korean instability and regime collapse they are using are derived from Robert Collins, and his seminal work, Patterns of Collapse or the Seven Phases of north Korean regime collapse. The analysts (and the C2 and J2) would do well to pay attention to his work. There is no one who has studied this possible phenomena or knows more about how instability and regime collapse might emerge and unfold than Robert Collins. Many have written about this over the years at various times but all (me included) base their work on Robert Collins' research directly or if they do not directly they are drawing their writing on secondary sources that are based on his work that may or may not be acknowledged (I recall a briefing Bob gave to a defense official in the 1990s and a year later when the defense official left government he wrote about collapse. His work contained critical analysis produced by Bob and presented in that briefing and there was no acknowledgement). So the chances are that many so-called "experts" on instability and collapse have based much of their research on Bob's work, whether they know it or not.

 

----------------

 

"It is by its promise of a sense of power that evil often attracts the weak."

- Eric Hoffer

 

“Second we find in our prerevolutionary society definite and indeed very bitter class antagonisms, though these antagonisms seem rather more complicated than the cruder Marxists will allow.”

- Crane Brinton

 

"First, I continue to think that people, with all their diverse identities, desires, and beliefs, should be central to our analyses of conflict. This means that individuals should be the prism through which to examine the effects of social structures, beliefs, and the possibilities for mobilization and political action. Is “relative deprivation” the best concept for doing so? In my own later writings I have used the words grievances and sense of injustice to capture the essence of the state of mind that motivates people to political action. Whichever phrase is used, the essential first step in any analysis is to understand what people’s grievances are and where they come from."

-Ted Gurr