Small Wars Journal

3/3/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Fri, 03/03/2023 - 8:40am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 2, 2023
2. Many Differences Between Liberals and Conservatives May Boil Down to One Belief
3. A Strategy of Denial for the Western Pacific
4. Four Nuclear States Can Ruin Your Whole Strategy
5. The Horror of All-Out War in the Pacific
6. Why does Putin persist?
7. Russian mercenary boss says Bakhmut practically surrounded
8.Open season on China in Taiwan-focused US House
9. The Army Needs to Explain What’s Going on With the Black Hawk Replacement
10. The Limits of the No-Limits Partnership (China- Russia)
11. Asia’s Third Way
12. Does Technology Win Wars? The U.S. Military Needs Low-Cost Innovation—Not Big-Ticket Boondoggles
13. U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine is Going to Get Complicated
14. How Will the War End? Thoughts on Ukraine, Russia, and a Theory of Victory
15. Lessons from the Melian Dialogue: A Case Against Providing Military Support for Ukraine
16. 'Destabilizing and dangerous’: Pentagon official warns of communication breakdown with China
17. Weapon replacement costs changing nature of Ukraine war
18. The impossible choice facing many of America’s military families
19. U.S., Allies Should Swiftly Penalize China for Supporting Russia’s War Against Ukraine
20. The Munich Security Conference was a display of ‘the West v. the rest’
21. Congress can put Army modernization back on track
22. Key American Allies Aren’t Following Governmentwide TikTok Bans
 

Korean News Content:

1. S. Korea, U.S. to stage annual exercise from March 13-23
2. Four Nuclear States Can Ruin Your Whole Strategy
3. Unification ministry urges lawmakers' cooperation in implementing N.K. human rights law
4. U.S. Should Roll Out Red Carpet for South Korean President
5. North Korea Suffers One of Its Worst Food Shortages in Decades
6. N. Korea's youth mobilization project seems meant for tighter state control: ministry
7. Hyesan conducts civil defense drills from late February to early March
8. National security adviser to visit Washington to discuss bilateral ties
9. N. Korea’s national police agency orders punishments for those disturbing public order
10. Freedom Shield, biggest U.S.-Korea exercise in years, to start on 13th
11. Secretary Austin vows continued efforts to counter North Korean provocation
12. US chip subsidies program to test President Yoon's diplomacy
13.  2 Koreas trade barbs at UN over Pyongyang's nuke programs
14. Gov't dismisses speculation about inter-Korean liaison office's abolishment
15. US unveils national strategy to counter cybercrimes by N. Korea, others
16. S. Korea yet to decide on sending lethal weapons to Ukraine: PM

3/2/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Thu, 03/02/2023 - 9:16am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Ready, FIRE, Aim: Great Power Competition without Combat Aviation Advisors
2. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: March
3. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MARCH 1, 2023
4. Opinion | China’s collapsing birth and marriage rates reflect a people’s deep pessimism
5. ‘Havana syndrome’ not caused by energy weapon or foreign adversary, intelligence review finds
6. Explainer: 2023 Indo-Pacific Summits
7. House’s first China Committee hearing highlights Taiwan defenses
8. US Cyber Command developing own intelligence hub
9. Tips for generals: how to navigate politics without partisanship
10. The Wagner Group’s Growing Shadow in the Sahel: What Does It Mean for Counterterrorism in the Region?
11. U.S. Special Forces launch counter-terrorism drills with African armies
12. Adopt a talent recruitment solution to spark a movement at the DoD
13. Why mortars are increasingly important on the modern battlefield
14. Ret. Gen. Spalding: 'Woke regime' teaming up with 'enemies' of US
15. Rethinking Assumptions About China
16. Mad Scientist Laboratory blog post 436. Non-Kinetic War
17. Clausewitz’s Analysis Resonates to This Day
18. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars
19. In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes
20. FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces National Cybersecurity Strategy
21. Biden National Cyber Strategy Seeks to Hold Software Firms Liable for Insecurity
22. How the U.S. National Cyber Strategy Reaches Beyond Government Agencies
23. Russia Using Western Satellites to Hone Attacks in Ukraine
24. Xi’s Communist Party wants even more centralized control
25. Five key takeaways from US House hearing on China
26. From Balloons to Nukes, We Must Stop Inflating the China Threat
27. China Trumps U.S. in Key Technology Research, Report Says
28. Analysis: Xi wants China's security apparatus under his direct grip
29. BlackSky details building of China's secret naval base in Cambodia
30. DOD Inspector Sees No Signs Ukraine Is Diverting Weapons—But Promises More Scrutiny

Korean News Content:

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: March (KOREA)
2. Images of plump, well-dressed daughter of Kim Jong Un arouse secret resentment
3. How should we view Kim Jong-un’s daughter? The regime is looking to perpetuate the country’s one-family rule into a fourth succession  ISHIMARU Jiro
4, Treasury Targets DPRK Actors Illicitly Generating Revenue Abroad
5. Sejong Institute chairman announces he will step down
6. U.S. lawmakers reintroduce bill on ending Korean War, improving relations between U.S., N. Korea
7. JCS chief inspects allies' special ops drills, calls for accurate strike capabilities
8. U.S. supports Yoon's vision for S. Korea-Japan relations: State Dept.
9. N. Korean leader calls for attaining grain production goal amid reports of severe food shortages
10. N. Korea wants more control over farming amid food shortage
11.  Yoon signs bill to upgrade veterans agency, establish overseas Koreans agency
12. [Editorial] Drones and robots on the DMZ
13. JCS chief stresses allies' readiness to hit enemy facilities
14. Yoon's pro-Japan speech likely to expedite settlement of forced labor issue
15. S. Korea discloses special forces drills with US in warning to N.Korea
16. Korea 'perfectly placed' to help build collective defense of democracies: scholar

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: March

Wed, 03/01/2023 - 11:25pm
Access the tracker HERE.

 

March 1, 2023 | FDD Tracker: February 1-28, 2023

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: March

 

Trend Overview

By David Adesnik and John Hardie

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch.

President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to Kyiv, where he vowed to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” Yet Biden is still hesitating to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to prevail on the battlefield, such as the Army Tactical Missile System. Meanwhile, NATO leaders are signaling they want Kyiv to enter negotiations with Moscow, even as Russian atrocities continue.

A mix of bold rhetoric and indecision also characterized Biden’s response to the appearance of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the continental United States. The administration claimed the balloon posed “no risk” yet sent an F-22 fighter jet to shoot it down. The president insisted the incident did no damage to the U.S.-China relationship, while Secretary of State Antony Blinken called it a “violation of our sovereignty” that must “never happen again.”

U.S. policy toward Iran reflects similar confusion. The administration speaks of solidarity with protesters who have spent five months marching for human rights while the regime responds with torture and executions. Yet the White House refuses to abandon hope of reviving some version of the 2015 nuclear deal, even as United Nations inspectors report Iran has enriched uranium to 84 percent purity, just shy of weapons-grade.

Check back with us next month to see if the administration has found a way to resolve these contradictions.

 

 

3/1/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Wed, 03/01/2023 - 7:58am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 28, 2023
2. FBI Director Says Covid Pandemic Likely Caused by Chinese Lab Leak
3. Treasury Official Travels to Beijing Despite U.S.-China Tensions
4. Putin’s War Rhetoric Rallies Russia’s Border Towns, but Nerves Fray
5. Lawmakers Question Pentagon on Ukraine Funds, Signaling Fresh Doubts
6. Red Balloons and China's Hybrid Warfare Challenge to International Law | SOF News
7. Bipartisan lawmakers warn of China threat at select committee's first hearing
8. China’s Spymasters Can Get More From TikTok Than From Balloons
9. NCOs Key to Ukrainian Military Successes Against Russia
10. The Cyberwar Is Here
11. Thailand, US resume Cobra Gold exercises at full scale
12. It’s not what the spy balloon gathered — it’s what it exposed
13. Our military leaders need a national security ‘fast lane’ to compete with China
14. Why sending more US military troops to Taiwan is so risky
15. CIA’s Supremacy in Global Spy Ring and Hammering Russian Intelligence Since Cold War
16. Taiwan's unofficial diplomacy gains as democracies sour on China
17. GOP-led House steps up scrutiny of Biden’s military aid for Ukraine
18. The Ukrainian Army Is Leveraging Online Influencers. Can the U.S. Military?

Korean News Content:

1. Full text of President Yoon Suk Yeol's speech on 104th March 1 Independence Movement Day
2. U.S., S. Korea agree on need to strengthen extended deterrence: Pentagon
3. Teak Knife exercise confirmed as U.S. reiterates commitment
4. South Korea's Yoon says Japan has transformed into a partner
5. Japan changed from 'aggressor' to 'partner' with shared universal values: President Yoon
6. Kim Jong-un's 3 Children: Everything to Know
7. 2 Koreas split on UN move on Ukraine War
8. Human Rights in North Korea to Stay on UN Security Council Radar
9. 'In North Korea, you exist for Kim family': Elite defectors recollect 'unjust', 'corrupt' Pyongyang life with horror
10. 'Enemy' North Korea: Do labels help?
11.  US, Japan, South Korea Launch Forum to Cut Off Chips to China

2/28/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Tue, 02/28/2023 - 7:22am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. The Combating Terrorism Center Turns 20: Reflections from its Directors – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
2. NEW: SIGAR's Collapse of the ANDSF Report
3. U.S. Commandos Advise Somalis in Fight Against Qaeda Branch
4. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 27, 2023
5. To ensure a short war in Ukraine, we must prepare for a long one
6. Saudi Arabia signs $400 million deal for Ukraine aid in historic visit
7. Tech’s hottest new job: AI whisperer. No coding required.
8. White House Says No Consensus on Covid Origin
9. What Was Putin Thinking? By Hal Brands
10. ‘Unmanned’ drones take too many humans to operate, says top Army aviator
11. RETIRED LT. GEN. RICHARD TREFRY DIES
12. What will ChatGPT mean for the US defense industrial base?
13. Yikes, the U.S. is Now Using Facial Recognition Rigged Drones for Special Ops
14. The Marine Corps is getting rid of Scout Snipers
15. Ex-CIA’s Petraeus Sees ‘Slow-balization’ From Geopolitic Shocks
16. China will target the US homeland in war over Taiwan, Army leader predicts
17. Opinion | A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before
18. What We Know and Don’t Know About the Origins of Covid
19. The Divided Diplomat - Ralph Bunche and the Contradictions of Liberal Order
20. The Reckoning That Wasn’t - Why America Remains Trapped by False Dreams of Hegemony By Andrew J. Bacevich
21. Pentagon to Reap Rewards From $53 Billion Chips Act
22. China’s latest balancing act in the war in Ukraine
23. Winning the Air Battle for Taiwan: Lessons from Ukraine’s Drone Operations
 

Korean News Content:

1. North Korea Again Launches Two Different Nuclear-Capable Missiles: Significant?
2. Unification ministry launches advisory committee to help build unification policy vision
3. A nuclear South Korea and the Indo-Pacific
4. 4 ex-ministerial officials indicted over alleged involvement in N.K. deportation case
5. South Korea and NATO: Seoul’s Strategic Calculus
6. N. Korean leader calls for 'radical change' in agricultural output within few years
7. Crisis of Credibility: The Need to Strengthen U.S. Extended Deterrence in Asia
8. S. Korea, U.S., Japan hold first economic security dialogue session
9. S. Korea designates Aug. 13 on lunar calendar as Separated Families Day
10. ‘King dollar’ fear returns after U.S inflation figure
11. Allies plan expanded exercise for 'extended deterrence'
12. S. Korea, US making 'practical' progress in strengthening US extended deterrence: Amb. Cho
13. Kim Jong-un purges: why North Korea is such a dangerous place to be successful in politics
14. What three young N. Koreans think about their country’s controls on foreign culture
15. US has no hostile intent but N. Korea continues to provoke: state dept.
16. Is TikTok helping a North Korean propaganda account go mega-viral?
17. S. Hamgyong Province warns young people not to earn money outside of assigned workplaces

2/27/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Mon, 02/27/2023 - 8:53am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Change your mind with these gateway drugs to intellectual humility
2. S.O.S for the U.S. Electric Grid
3. U.S. And Taiwan Set To Exchange Hundreds Of Troops For Training
4. Report from Geneva: The WHO CA+ Treaty Falls Short
5. Vladimir Putin will be killed by his own inner circle, Zelensky predicts
6. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 26, 2023
7. Desperate for Babies, China Races to Undo an Era of Birth Limits. Is It Too Late?
8. Iraqi president says country now peaceful, life is returning
9. From McDonald’s to Ralph Lauren, U.S. Companies Are Planning China Expansions
10. How ChatGPT’s AI Will Become Useful
11. The War Will Grind On: Reflecting on A Year of War in Ukraine
12. NATO on the precipice
13. China’s coal plant approvals highest in seven years, research finds
14. CIA director Bill Burns: China has doubts whether it could accomplish invasion of Taiwan
15. Why Russia's war is causing blackouts in Asia
16. Special Operations News - February 27, 2023 | SOF News
17. We must treat cyber wars the same as we treat conventional military encounters
18. The making of a quagmire in Ukraine
19. Elite Russian Forces Said to Suffer Losses in Ukraine
20, Generative AI could be an authoritarian breakthrough in brainwashing
21. Zelensky fires top Ukrainian military commander
22. The Army doesn’t know why junior officers are leaving
23.  The Legendary U.S. Surveillance Plane That Flew For Over 50 Years (P3 Orion)
24. America Must Become the Arsenal of Democracy Again
25. Without Evidence, Iran Denies Reports It Enriched Uranium to Near Weapons-Grade
26. UN General Assembly votes 141-7 for Russian Forces to Withdraw from Ukraine
 

Korean News Content:

1. Unification minister says it's 'too early' to determine whether N.K. leader's daughter is successor
2.  S. Korea seeks to cut key minerals dependence on China to 50 pct by 2030
3. U.S. asks to buy ammo as Zelensky hopes for Korean aid
4. Seoul aims to use strengthened US ties to expand nuclear plant exports
5. N. Koreans continue to consume illegal drugs, smuggled TV shows despite crackdowns
6. Could Japan propose "grand bargain" on past history, future security to South Korea?
7. Second BTS member begins enlistment process for South Korea’s military
8. Malaysia picks South Korea’s FA-50 light combat jet over Indian bid
9. North Korea holds rare meeting on farming amid food shortage
10. North talks agriculture at big leadership meeting
11. N. Hwanghae Province review of hospitals identifies numerous issues

2/26/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Sun, 02/26/2023 - 9:57am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Joint Concept for Competing 10 February 2023

2. Kherson's underground resistance: How ordinary people fought Russia from the shadows

3. AI Can Tell Us How Russians Feel About the War. Putin Won’t Like the Results.

4. Touting ‘Ethnic Fusion,’ China’s New Top Official for Minority Affairs Envisions a Country Free of Cultural Difference

5. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 25, 2023

6. Transactional vs. Transformational Recruits

7. Ukraine's Banksy stamps feature art of Putin in judo match

8. In Pursuit of a General Theory of Proxy Warfare

9. Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, U.S. Agency Now Says

10. Russia’s Descent into Warlordism

11. South Korea to conduct radiation exposure tests on North Korean escapees

12. Ex-Washington adviser calls for US naval visits

13. Putin Wanted to Lead a Great Power. Instead, He Shrunk Russia’s World.

14. Putin’s myth-making glorifies Russia. Ours humiliates the West

Korean News Content:

1. N. Korean leader attends groundbreaking ceremony for new street in Pyongyang

2. Zelenskyy says S. Korea's military support will be positive for Ukraine: state media

3. North not backing down ahead of South-U.S. joint military exercises

4. South Korea, U.S. mull deployment of nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to peninsula

5. Intensifying chip wars

6. UAE begins commercial operations at S. Korean-built No. 3 nuclear reactor

7. In Seoul, Ukrainians and Russians protest against war

8. S. Korea asks US command to remove ‘Sea of Japan’ from trilateral exercise press release

9. [INTERVIEW] 'Unified Korea will become model nation on global stage'

10. North Korea's Kim mobilises young labourers in new housing plan amid economic woes

Joint Concept For Competing

Sun, 02/26/2023 - 8:04am

This unclassified 91 page document was recently published.  

It can be downloaded HERE. 

Page 1 of the EXSUM is below.

Some key points:

Strategic competition is a persistent and long-term struggle that occurs between two or more adversaries seeking to pursue incompatible interests without necessarily engaging in armed conflict with each other.

...

We think of being at peace or war…our adversaries don’t think that way.

​...

Strategic competition is thus an enduring condition to be managed, not a problem to be​ ​solved​.

...

By taking actions designed to shift the focus of strategic competition into areas that favor U.S. interests or undermine an adversary’s interests, the Joint Force can exploit the competitive space to gain advantage over adversaries and pursue national interests.

...

The United States can and should develop a more holistic approach to strategic competition that recognizes and seizes upon the irregular, non-lethal, and non-military aspects of competing as fundamental to success, and that focuses on U.S. interests and values, not just what it opposes.


...
The Joint Force will conduct irregular warfare operations and activities proactively to subvert, create dilemmas for adversaries, and impose costs on an adversary’s strategic interests, including its economy, civil society, institutional processes, and critical infrastructure. Irregular warfare favors indirect and asymmetric approaches, though it may employ the full range of military and other capabilities, in order to erode an adversary’s power, influence, and political will."

It also recognizes the importance of understanding China's Unrestricted Warfare:

China, in particular, has rapidly become more assertive; it is the only competitor capable of mounting a sustained challenge to a stable and open international system.17 In 1999, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui wrote the “new principles of war are…using all means, including armed force or non-armed force, military and non-military, and lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interests.” Accordingly, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not seek to defeat the United States in a direct military confrontation. The PRC intends to deter U.S. intervention militarily and present the United States with a fait accompli that compels the United States to accept a strategic outcome that results in a PRC regional sphere of influence and an international system more favorable to PRC national interests and authoritarian preferences.

 

It appears that the JCS doctrine still embraces Department of Defense Irregular Warfare Annex to the National Defense Strategy. 2019. It is referenced a number of times along with the Joint Chiefs of Staff Irregular Warfare Mission Analysis, 19 October 2021.

 

I notice a number of parallels between this JCC and USASOC's White Paper on Support to Political Warfare from 2015. I recommend reading it in conjunction with the JCC.  The white paper can be accessed HERE.

 

JCC

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Based on combatant commander (CCDR) assessments of their limited ability to compete

successfully in strategic competition, at a Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Tank on 19 June 2020, the

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS) directed the development of a joint concept for

competition to drive joint strategic planning and joint force development and design. The Joint

Concept for Competing (JCC) advances an intellectual paradigm shift to enable the Joint Force,

in conjunction with interagency, multinational, and other interorganizational partners, to engage

successfully in strategic competition. For the purposes of this concept, strategic competition is

a persistent and long-term struggle that occurs between two or more adversaries seeking to

pursue incompatible interests without necessarily engaging in armed conflict with each

other. The normal and peaceful competition among allies, strategic partners, and other

international actors who are not potentially hostile is outside the scope of this concept.

 

The Strategic Environment

 

Recognizing the overwhelming conventional military capability demonstrated during Operation

DESERT STORM in 1991 and Operation IRAQI FREEDOM in 2003, U.S. adversaries

responded by seeking to circumvent U.S. deterrent posture through competitive activity below

the threshold of armed conflict with the United States. Adversaries are employing cohesive

combinations of military and civil power to expand the competitive space. Adversaries aim to

achieve their strategic objectives through a myriad of ways and means, including statecraft and

economic power as well as subversion, coercion, disinformation, and deception. They are

investing in key technologies designed to offset U.S. strategic and conventional military

capabilities (e.g., nuclear weapons, anti-access and area denial systems, offensive cyberspace,

artificial intelligence, hypersonic delivery systems, electromagnetic spectrum). Simply put, our

adversaries intend to “win without fighting,” but they are also building military forces that

strengthen their ability to “fight and win” an armed conflict against the United States. Facing

this dilemma, more of the same is not enough. By ignoring the threat of strategic competition,

and failing to compete deliberately and proactively, the United States risks ceding strategic

influence, advantage, and leverage while preparing for a war that may never occur. The United

States must remain fully prepared and poised for war, but this alone is insufficient to secure U.S.

strategic interests. If the Joint Force does not change its approach to strategic competition, there

is a significant risk that the United States will “lose without fighting.”

 

Purpose of Strategic Competition

 

Analyzing any adversary’s way of war is instructive. As former CJCS General Joseph F.

Dunford recognized, “We think of being at peace or war…our adversaries don’t think that

way.” They believe they are in a long-term “conflict without combat” to alter the current

international system, advance their national interests, gain strategic advantage and influence, and

limit U.S. and allied options. The JCC postulates that the Joint Force should also view the

spectrum of conflict as an enduring struggle between international actors with incompatible

strategic interests and objectives, but who also cooperate when their interests coincide.

Strategic competition is thus an enduring condition to be managed, not a problem to be

solved.