Small Wars Journal

4/4/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Tue, 04/04/2023 - 9:59am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: April
2. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3, 2023
3. Task Force Viking Hammer (Iraq 2003) | SOF News
4. Philippines names 4 new camps for US forces amid China fury
5. China seethes as US chip controls threaten tech ambitions
6. US military says senior IS commander killed in Syria
7. Elite Ukrainian snipers describe their war from the shadows
8. Congressman: US support for aid to Ukraine is 'overwhelming'
9. Finland to join NATO on Tuesday, Sweden still waiting
10. Ukraine battles on in Bakhmut as Finland joins NATO
11. The Intensifying Trend Of Global De-Dollarization – Analysis
12. Chinese balloon got intel from U.S. military sites, despite efforts to block it
13. US says it cannot confirm China collected real-time data from spy balloon
14. China warns US House Speaker not to meet Taiwan president
15. War in Taiwan will dwarf Ukraine unless the US shows China its teeth
16. Why Some in the Military Might Not Celebrate a TikTok Ban
17. Is the Chinese Dream Turning into a Chinese Nightmare for Beijing?
18. Kevin McCarthy Prepares to Meet Taiwan’s President as Tensions With China Swirl
19. Forces of Destabilization: Countering Wagner Group in the Sahel
20. Mind the Middle Powers
21. America Can Win the AI Race
22. The Cost of Biden’s ‘Democracy’ Fixation
23. Retired U.S. colonel compares Ukraine counterattack to pivotal WWII battle
24. Drone-on-Drone Combat in Ukraine Marks a New Era of Aerial Warfare
25. Ukraine:  WAR BULLETIN  April 3, 7.00 pm EST - Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and fourthday of large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation against our state continues.
 

Korean News Content:

1. Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: April - KOREA
2. No sign of an imminent nuclear test from North Korea, Pentagon says
3. North Koreans Trapped in ‘State-Sponsored Slavery’ in Russia
4. UNHRC adopts resolution on N. K. human rights
5. North Korea slams U.S. for protecting raiders of Spain embassy in 2019 case
6. N. Korean hacking group Kimsuky funds Pyongyang's espionage operations through cybercrimes
7. China's new envoy to N. Korea starts duty
8. U.S. announces ICBM test launch in third week of April
9. Making Yoon’s Space Vision a South Korean Reality
10. Pyongyang still suffers from unreliable power supply
11. N. Korean restaurants in northeastern China refuse to serve S. Korean customers
12. South green-lights humanitarian aid to North Korea, first this year
13. Korea, China, Japan may resume three-way summit this year: Seoul official
14. Foreign Ministry denies Blackpink allegations
15. South Korea should not go nuclear
16. New national security adviser hopes for close communication with US counterpart

Ukraine: WAR BULLETIN April 3, 7.00 pm EST - Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and fourthday of large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation against our state continues.

Tue, 04/04/2023 - 9:32am

 

Embassy of Ukraine in the USA

 

WAR BULLETIN

April 3, 7.00 pm EST

 

 

During the day, the enemy carried out 3 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 20 attacks from MLRS systems on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.

During a working trip to the Chernihiv region, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a meeting with Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić who is visiting our country for the second time since the beginning of the full-scale aggression.

President of Ukraine held talks with Vice Chancellor, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany Robert Habeck in the Chernihiv region.

The successes of our people in the battles for the Chernihiv, Sumy and Kyiv regions revealed to the world the truth that Ukraine is capable of emerging victorious from this war - President on the occasion of the anniversary of the de-occupation of the Chernihiv region.

Every day we are getting stronger, every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account - address by the President of Ukraine

Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal - address by the President of Ukraine on April 2.

Ukraine and Romania to hold First Black Sea Security Conference of International Crimea. Platform in Bucharest.

IMF Executive Board approved USD 15.6 billion for Ukraine under a New Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program.

Business activity expectations index almost reaches its neutral level – business outlook survey in March.

 

WAR ROOM

 

General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.2022 to 03.04.2023 were approximately:

personnel ‒ about 175160 (+610) persons,

tanks ‒ 3619 (+1),

APV ‒ 6993 (+7),

artillery systems – 2694 (+7),

MLRS – 527,

Anti-aircraft warfare systems ‒ 280 (+1),

aircraft – 306,

helicopters – 291,

UAV operational-tactical level – 2262 (+13),

cruise missiles ‒ 911,

warships / boats ‒ 18,

vehicles and fuel tanks – 5553 (+16),

special equipment ‒ 298 (+2).

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0wn3s1CjQg37QBB9JM6nnzeJqzasbKf5TpAhfkj2pXTe8QCjX1eC965dkwAvwyVmdl?locale=uk_UA 

 

Operational information as of 18.00

Glory to Ukraine! The four hundred and fourth day of large-scale armed aggression of the russian federation against our state continues.

During the day, the enemy carried out 3 missile and 17 air strikes, carried out more than 20 attacks from MLRS systems on the positions of our troops and the civilian infrastructure of populated areas.

The probability of launching missile and air strikes on the entire territory of Ukraine remains high.

The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka directions. Thanks to the coordinated actions of units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine and the heroism of each soldier, more than 45 enemy attacks were repelled during the day. Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Maryinka remain at the epicenter of hostilities.

In the Volyn, Polissiya, Siverskyi and Slobozhanskyi directions, the operational situation has not changed significantly, and no signs of formations of enemy offensive groups have been detected. Certain units of the armed forces of the republic of belarus continue to perform tasks in the areas bordering Ukraine. The russian federation will continue to use the airspace and territory of the republic of belarus, its military infrastructure. The training of units of the armed forces of the russian federation is carried out on belarusian training grounds.

The presence of enemy units in the border areas of the Kursk and Belgorod regions is maintained.

During the day, the enemy shelled the settlements of Zapsilya and Myropyllya in the Sumy region, as well as the settlements of Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zybine, Volokhivka, Rublene, and Vilkhuvatka in the Kharkiv region.

Kamianka, Petro-Ivanivka, Dvorichna, Kutkivka, Zapadne, Masyutivka of the Kharkiv region came under enemy fire in the Kupyansk direction; Krokhmalne in Luhansk region and Terna and Serebryanka in Donetsk region.

In the Lyman direction, during the day, the enemy conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Nevsky and Serebryansk forestry. Makiivka, Nevske, Belogorivka of the Luhansk region and Vesele, Spirne and Rozdolivka of the Donetsk region were hit by artillery fire.

In the direction of Bakhmut, the enemy is trying to take full control of the city of Bakhmut, and continues to storm it. He led unsuccessful offensive actions near the settlements of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and Ivanivske. During the day, units of the defense forces repelled about 20 enemy attacks on the specified section of the battle line. Vasyukivka, Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Novomarkove, Bohdanivka, Bakhmut, Ivanivske, Chasiv Yar, Ozaryanivka, Dachne, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Zalizne and New York of the Donetsk region suffered from enemy shelling.

On the Avdiivka and Maryinka directions, the enemy carried out unsuccessful offensive actions in the areas of Severnoy, Pervomaisky and Maryinka. At the same time, the enemy shelled Avdiivka, Vodyane, Severne, Netaylove, Pervomaiske, Georgiyivka, Maryinka, and Pobyeda of the Donetsk region.

During the day, the enemy did not conduct offensive operations in the Shakhtarsk direction. Unmanned aerial vehicles were actively used to adjust artillery fire. He shelled the settlements of Novomykhailivka, Vugledar, Prechistivka, Zolota Niva, Velika Novosilka, and Vremivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson directions, the enemy did not conduct active operations, but increased its defense capabilities. He carried out shelling of populated areas, which are next to the line of military confrontation. Among them are Olhivske, Gulyaipole, Charivne, Biloghirya, Mala Tokmachka, Kamianske of the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as the city of Kherson.

In the Skadovsky district of the Kherson region, the so-called russian occupation authorities have started compiling lists of local residents who agree to "evacuate" to Crimea or the territory of the russian federation. It is known that the "evacuation" will be carried out on a voluntary basis for the time being, primarily women and children will be taken out.

The aviation of the defense forces struck 5 times during the day on the areas of concentration of personnel and military equipment of the occupiers. Our defenders also shot down an enemy reconnaissance UAV.

Units of missile forces and artillery, in turn, struck the area where the enemy's manpower was concentrated.

https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02fJnei1XUxCBb5aBXoRwayujUzyHpDz9N4QYet1CStt7M52FGPkviBJBN8NodMCNLl?locale=uk_UA

 

 

 

POLICY

President of Ukraine

 

President held a meeting with the Secretary General of the Council of Europe in Chernihiv

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/glava-derzhavi-proviv-u-chernigovi-zustrich-iz-generalnim-se-82065

 

President of Ukraine held talks with Vice Chancellor, Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action of Germany Robert Habeck in the Chernihiv region

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/na-chernigivshini-prezident-ukrayini-proviv-peregovori-z-vic-82061

Every day we are getting stronger, every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account - address by the President of Ukraine

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A report on this busy day.

Staff. Another away meeting of the Staff - the first was in Dnipro, now - in Chernihiv.

Key security issues at the front, in the northern regions and at the border.

The commanders of the directions delivered reports. This time, Generals Syrskyi and Tarnavskyi reported by secure communication line, and not in person, from the hottest areas of the front.

The situation in Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka and throughout the Donetsk region. Bilohorivka and the entire Luhansk region.

The Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate, the Head of the State Border Guard Service, representatives of the Ministry of Defense.

Full-fledged meeting. Full-fledged coordination. Full-fledged preparation of our active actions for the liberation of Ukrainian lands.

There were many different events and negotiations in the Chernihiv region starting from this morning.

One of the most difficult trips in terms of emotions.

We visited Yahidne, an ordinary small village of our Chernihiv region, which Russian savages turned into one of the world's biggest examples of human abuse last year.

Russian soldiers made a command post at the school in Yahidne, and drove all the villagers into the basement of the school. Just like a human shield.

From March 3 to March 30 of last year, the occupiers kept more than three hundred people in the basement of this school... An ordinary village school, the basement, which is smaller than two hundred square meters.

Elderly people and little children, women and men... The oldest woman was 93 years old, the youngest child was less than six months old.

We will never forgive the evil state for this basement, this concentration camp in Yahidne, just as for all other crimes of Russia against people and humanity. And not only us.

The Kremlin will not be able to hide behind a chair in the UN Security Council, gas pipes or anything else. There will certainly be legal and fair responsibility for every Russian crime committed on Ukrainian soil. In the tribunal, in the International Criminal Court, in Ukrainian courts.

I am grateful to the guests of Ukraine who visited the Chernihiv region with me, who saw this concentration of Russian evil in our Yahidne. I thank German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Secretary General of the Council of Europe Marija Pejčinović Burić. I am also thankful for the negotiations - meaningful and correct.

I thank UNESCO Director General Audrey Azoulay for her attention to Ukraine, for today's meetings in Ukraine. We are preparing the UNESCO World Heritage status for the historical center of Chernihiv. The same status that was recently obtained for the historical center of our Odesa.

As always, it was a special honor to visit our warriors in the hospital, who are recovering from battle wounds. To thank them for everything they do for Ukraine, to thank them for their faith in Ukraine, which our people defend, risking the most valuable - their lives.

I presented Chernihiv with the award of a hero city, a city of heroes. Chernihiv saw different occupiers, different kinds of evil... Protecting ourselves from this Russian evil is perhaps the most important thing in our history.

I awarded our warriors who distinguished themselves in the defense of the state.

And what is very important - I thanked everyone who ensures the reconstruction of our Chernihiv region. We will restore everything that the enemy destroyed.

Ukraine will never be a country of ruins, no matter how much the Kremlin dreams of it. Their dreams do not come true.

Already here, in Kyiv, after my return, I met with a delegation of American congressmen.

I thanked America for its consistently powerful help, from President Biden and the White House team to both houses of Congress and the entire system of American power.

We talked, of course, about the active actions of Ukraine. Of course, about our joint victory.

I also met with Mike Pompeo, former United States Secretary of State

I am grateful to everyone who helps us defend freedom! I am especially thankful today to Denmark and Norway for the initiative of the governments to transfer an additional batch of artillery shells to our warriors. This is very timely and useful.

We are getting stronger every day. Every day we are getting closer to the day when the terrorist state will be held to account.

Glory to all who are now fighting for Ukraine! May the memory of all those who gave their lives for Ukraine be blessed and eternal!

Glory to Ukraine!

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/shodnya-stayemo-micnishimi-shodnya-nablizhayemo-den-koli-der-82073

 

Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal - address by the President of Ukraine

April 2

Today, Russian terrorists again struck at Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region. At ordinary residential blocks. Six people were killed by this Russian shelling. Three women, three men. Ordinary people of an ordinary town in Donbas. My condolences to the family and friends of the deceased...

Another 11 people were wounded. Russia used S-300 missiles and the Uragan MLRS against Kostiantynivka.

This morning, Russian terrorists also attacked the Konotop district of the Sumy region. Mortar fire. Two people were killed. My condolences to all relatives, friends, all families...

These are just a few examples of dozens of hits per day. There is only one way to stop Russian terror, to restore security to all our cities and communities - from Sumy region to Donbas, from Kharkiv region to Kherson region, from Kyiv region to Yalta. And this is Ukraine’s military victory. There is no other way and there will be no other way.

The evil state for which it has become the norm to hit residential buildings with "Uragan" like this, to launch S-300 missiles at cities, to shell ordinary villages, people... The evil state must be defeated. In every sense of the word. Rashism must face a total defeat: military, economic, political, legal. The first point is military. And it will face it.

I thank everyone who brings this time closer! I am grateful to our warriors who are fighting near Avdiivka, Maryinka, near Bakhmut... Especially Bakhmut! It's especially hot there today! Near Bilohorivka, near Kreminna and all our other cities, towns and villages of Donbas! The resilience of everyone is the resilience of the whole of Ukraine, helping everyone in a position nearby is helping the whole of Ukraine!

Thank you to everyone who protects Zaporizhzhia, Kherson region, the direction of the Dnipropetrovsk region and Kharkiv, Sumy region and Chernihiv region... To everyone who protects our border. Who saves our people from injuries, from pain.

Of course I would like to separately thank everyone who trains our warriors, as it is on powerful training that a successful combat result is based.

Today, April 2, we celebrate the anniversary of the liberation of our Kyiv region from the rashist army. On April 2, the last occupier fled from the territory of the Kyiv region.

There will be a day when we will say: the last occupier has fled or been killed in the Donetsk region, Luhansk region, Kherson region and in our entire south. Crimea will be free and safe again. Ukraine will return all its territories.

Next week will be especially important for our defense, for our advancement towards victory. We are already preparing for scheduled events and decisions.

The key thing now is to cherish our unity, take care of our defenders, help each other and the state.

Full address:

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/rashizm-povinen-projti-cherez-povnu-porazku-vijskovu-ekonomi-82037

 

Prime Minister of Ukraine

 

Platform in Bucharest

03 April 2023 14:39 CET

The unprovoked and unjustified military aggression of russia against Ukraine has challenged the security system in the Black Sea and Azov Sea regions. In order to find effective ways to respond to these challenges and provide opportunities for sustainable development to all peaceful countries of the region, Ukraine initiated the First Black Sea Security Conference, which will be held jointly with Romania on April 12-13 in Bucharest.

This event is a part of the International Crimea Platform, a mechanism aimed at the de-occupation of Crimea, restoration of the Black Sea, European, and global security.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/ukraina-ta-rumuniia-provedut-v-bukharesti-pershu-chornomorsku-bezpekovu-konferentsiiu-mizhnarodnoi-krymskoi-platformy

 

 

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

 

Dmytro Kuleba to pay a visit to Brussels

On April 3-4, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba will pay a working visit to Brussels to participate in an official meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission.

 

This will be the first meeting of the Commission at the level of foreign ministers with the participation of Ukraine since 2017.

 

The Head of Ukrainian diplomacy will hold important talks in the context of preparations for the NATO Summit in Vilnius in July.

 

Dmytro Kuleba will also discuss in detail steps to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities, including new arms supplies and ammunition production, increased sanctions pressure on russia, the establishment of a Special Tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine, and humanitarian aid.

 

During the visit, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister will also hold separate bilateral meetings with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell, EU Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth Mariya Gabriel, and foreign ministers of partner countries.

https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/dmytro-kuleba-zdiisnyt-vizyt-do-briusselia

 

FINANCE

The Ministry of Finance

IMF Executive Board approved USD 15.6 billion for Ukraine under a New Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program

On 31 March the IMF Board approved a new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program for Ukraine with financing in the amount of USD 15.6 billion (SDR 11.6 billion).

It is expected that Ukraine may receive the first tranche from the Fund in the near future. And its volume will be about USD 2.7 billion of direct budget funding.

The program includes two phases. The first phase, planned for 2023-24, will focus on implementing a robust budget for 2023 and increasing revenue mobilization, including by avoiding new measures that might erode tax revenues.

The first phase also provides inflation reduction and stability of exchange rate, including through maintaining adequate foreign exchange reserves. In addition, measures to promote long-term financial stability are expected, including by preparing a deeper assessment of the banking sector health and further promoting central bank independence.

At the same time, the Government of Ukraine undertakes to support and continue reforms to strengthen the system of governance and fight against corruption, including through amendments to legislation.

During the second phase of the program, the focus will be on reforms that will help to support post-war recovery and reconstruction as efficiently as possible, and will help Ukraine implement the necessary measures on the way to European integration. Long-term economic growth is also one of the priorities of the second phase of the EFF program.

It is planned that during the second phase, Ukraine will return to the pre-war policy framework, in particular, to a flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting. At the same time, there will be a focus on implementing essential structural reforms in fiscal policies to stabilize medium-term revenues by introducing a national revenue strategy, and also launching public finance management and introducing public investment management reforms that will aid in the post-war reconstruction process. To help the post-war reform endeavors, it is necessary to improve competition in the crucial energy sector, while reducing quasi-fiscal liabilities.

In turn, the Government of Ukraine commits to:

●      strengthen policies that sustain fiscal, external, price and financial stability;

●      support economic recovery while enhancing governance and strengthening institutions to promote long-term growth in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction and European integration path.

Despite the conditions of extremely high uncertainty in Ukraine, the EFF program is a pillar of cooperation with various international partners and paves the way for large-scale funding from donors, including the G7 countries and the European Union.

Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko stated:

“We are grateful to the Fund's Board for the decision regarding the Extended Fund Facility Program for Ukraine. Unprecedented work was done to achieve the result, because this is an exceptional case of providing an IMF program to a warring country. The EFF program will significantly strengthen the economy and financial system, while facilitating the mobilization of additional financial resources from donors. Currently, Ukraine is at the beginning of a new stage of cooperation both with the International Monetary Fund and with partner countries.”

https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/imf_executive_board_approved_usd_156_billion_for_ukraine_under_a_new_extended_fund_facility_eff_program-3911

 

Sergii Marchenko met with Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Sigrid Kaag

On 2 April Minister of Finance of Ukraine Sergii Marchenko met with First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Netherlands Sigrid Kaag.

The parties discussed the state of Ukraine's financial system, cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, post-war recovery and reconstruction, and the strengthening of sanctions against russia.

"I am grateful to the Government and people of the Netherlands for their significant financial, military and humanitarian support. It is very important for us in our struggle to defeat the aggressor," said Sergii Marchenko.

The Minister of Finance of Ukraine outlined the state of the economy after more than a year of full-scale war, emphasizing that the country has adapted to the new conditions and maintained stability despite all the challenges: "The Government of Ukraine continues to function fully, providing all basic and vital services to the population."

Sergii Marchenko noted that international partners have confirmed their intention to support the country in financing the current year's State Budget deficit in full. In particular, the recent decision of the IMF to launch a new four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Program for Ukraine in the amount of USD 15.6 billion was an important milestone.

Ukraine also needs significant resources to recover the country. According to the RDNA2 report by the Government of Ukraine, the World Bank Group, the European Commission, and the United Nations, Ukraine's reconstruction and recovery needs are estimated at approximately USD 411 billion.

At the same time, in 2023, Ukraine needs USD 14 billion to implement rapid recovery, including the restoration of energy, housing, critical and social infrastructure, basic services for the most vulnerable, humanitarian demining and private sector development.

The Minister of Finance of Ukraine noted that he counts on the support of international partners in the realization of a rapid and large-scale recovery. The new Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform for Ukraine involving the G7 countries and the European Commission should become a reliable tool for mobilizing and coordinating the necessary funding.

https://www.mof.gov.ua/en/news/sergii_marchenko_met_with_minister_of_finance_of_the_netherlands_sigrid_kaag-3912

 

The National Bank of Ukraine

Business activity expectations index almost reaches its neutral level – business outlook survey in March

A more benign external environment, reestablished supply chains, the improved functioning of the energy sector and rebounding consumer sentiment had a positive effect on business expectations in March. Companies across all of the surveyed sectors reported more optimistic expectations of their business performance and future economic outlook.

This is evidenced by the business activity expectations index (BAEI), which the NBU calculates on a monthly basis, apart from the forced break in March–May 2022. The BAEI, at 49.5, almost reached its neutral level in March 2023, compared to 45.0 in February. This is a high not seen since December 2021.

Trading companies reported the most optimistic expectations of their business performance and future economic outlook on the back of rebounding consumer sentiment, the improved supply of electric power and an increase in the supply of goods. In March, the sector’s index moved above its neutral level for the first time since November 2021, hitting 53.6 (compared to 47.0 in February). Companies markedly improved their views about their trade turnover and purchases of goods for sale. On the back of softer expectations for purchase prices, respondents declared intentions to cut their trade margins slightly.

The improved functioning of the energy sector, reestablished supply chains and a more benign external environment had a positive effect on industrial companies’ expectations. For the first time since February 2022, industrial companies expected more robust economic performance compared to the previous month, as the sector’s DI moved above its neutral level, to 51.2, up from 47.2 in February 2023. Respondents expected an increase in the amount of manufactured goods and the number of new orders for products, including export orders. Respondents markedly softened their negative expectations for the amount of unfinished products (unfulfilled orders), while also reporting weaker expectations for a rise in finished goods stocks.

On the back of seasonal factors, construction companies noticeably improved their negative performance expectations, the sector’s DI being 45.9 in March, up from 33.5 in February. Respondents reported intentions to purchase more raw materials and supplies and contractor services. At the same time, construction companies expected no changes in their construction volumes. They also significantly softened their negative expectations for the number of new orders.

Despite there being a seasonal revival, services companies reported the gloomiest economic outlook, the sector’s index being 45.7, up from 43.2 in February. Respondents somewhat improved their still pessimistic expectations for the amount of services provided, the number of new orders, and the amount of services that are being provided.

Most polled companies said they expected that purchase and contractor prices would grow at a slower pace. They also declared weaker intentions to raise their selling prices.

Employment expectations remained guarded. Companies across all polled sectors still report no intentions to expand their workforces. Trading companies reported the least pessimistic expectations.

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/indeks-ochikuvan-dilovoyi-aktivnosti-mayje-dosyag-rivnovajnogo-rivnya--rezultati-opituvannya-pidpriyemstv-u-berezni

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: April

Tue, 04/04/2023 - 9:09am

Access the Foreign Policy Tracker HERE.

 

April 4, 2023 | FDD Tracker: March 1-April 4, 2023

Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: April

Trend Overview

By John Hardie and David Adesnik

Welcome back to the Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker. Once a month, we ask FDD’s experts and scholars to assess the administration’s foreign policy. They provide trendlines of very positive, positive, neutral, negative, or very negative for the areas they watch.

Last month saw President Joe Biden host his Australian and British counterparts to announce next steps in their trilateral defense pact, known as AUKUS, which seeks to strengthen deterrence of Beijing. Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea are working to mend ties, a boon for U.S. efforts to combat threats from China and North Korea. The White House also released a long-awaited national strategy that delineates U.S. cybersecurity priorities.

The good news ends there, however. Although it is working with allies to help Ukraine prepare for a spring counteroffensive, the administration continues to withhold key weapons from Kyiv. The administration also refuses to lower the G7-imposed price cap on Russian oil exports, neutering its ability to cut Kremlin revenue. Additionally, the president’s proposed defense budget, once adjusted for inflation, would leave the U.S. military with flat or even declining resources while failing to fund top priorities identified by Indo-Pacific Command.

Meanwhile, Biden continues to struggle to assert leadership in the Middle East. Beijing brokered a deal to normalize relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the Middle Kingdom’s first major foray into Middle East politics. Tehran inches ever closer to a nuclear weapons capability, but the White House seemingly lacks a strategy to stop it. The administration also continues to green-light Arab normalization with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Check back with us next month to see whether Biden manages to right the ship.

trends

 

4/3/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Mon, 04/03/2023 - 9:09am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 2, 2023
2. Evan Gershkovich’s Arrest Marks a New Era of Hostage Diplomacy
3. Russia blames Ukraine for bomb that killed military blogger
4. Influential Russian Military Blogger Is Killed in St. Petersburg Bombing
5. Prominent Russian military blogger killed in St. Petersburg cafe blast
6. Finland Will Pack a Punch in NATO
7. Special Operations News Update - April 3, 2023 | SOF News
8. Putin’s Shakespearean Demons By Robert D. Kaplan
9. The U.S. Military's Great Relearning
10. In Defense of Denial: Why Deterring China Requires New Airpower Thinking
11. Elbridge Colby and Clausewitzian Diplomacy
12. Opinion: Canada must put Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on terrorist list under Criminal Code
13. Is Turkey about to ditch its Russian S-400 missile system?
14. Assad Will Return to Arab League Summit, Courtesy of Saudi Invite
15. Ruble Rumble – Offensive and Defensive Measures to Defeat Russia in the Economic Domain
16. Chinese spy balloon gathered intelligence on US military sites-
17. It’s time for a reckoning with Chinese big tech
18. Report of the National Independent Panel on Military Service and Readiness
19. Pentagon cyber policy post may stay unfilled during review
20. Our military is in a dangerous decline and this is the reason why
21. China warns Philippines not to give US more access to bases
22. On the front lines with the Free Burma Rangers
 

Korean News Content:

1.N. Korea's nuclear test would be 'out of character' given call for mass production of nukes: expert |
2. Plans for Pop Concert at Korea-U.S. Summit Scrapped
3. Vice unification minister to meet Japanese nuclear envoy to discuss N. Korea
4.  S. Korea, Japan in talks over launching economic security, nat'l security dialogues
5. The man blurred might be N. Korea's commander of tactical nuclear weapon unit
6. South Korea, U.S. and Japan begin naval drills to deter North's SLBMs
7. [Column] What if the North conducts its 7th nuclear test?
8. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's daughter is being indoctrinated: Experts
9. Lax patrols lead to spike in smuggling across China-North Korea border
10. China wants warmer cultural ties with South Korea, but politics seen to stand in the way

4/2/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Sun, 04/02/2023 - 12:05pm

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2023
2. Top Republican calls out "geopolitical malpractice" on Russia and China threats
3. ‘When China Attacks’ – and the US goes down to defeat
4. Where Putin and Xi don’t see eye to eye
5. The Korean Model for Taiwan
6. Opinion | Centcom gets a tech disruptor
7. When Weapons Fall Silent: Lessons for NATO from the First Year of the Ukraine War
8. Army to use Pacific Pathways to test assumptions about 'contested logistics,' prepositioned stocks
9. Diplomats in Robes? The Supreme Court’s Unwelcome Forays Into Foreign Policy
10. China Has Been Waging a Decades-Long, All-Out Spy War
11. Biden’s State Department Needs a Reset
12. War Books: The Iraq War
13. BRICS Are Developing a New Currency: State Duma Deputy Chair
14. Philippine, US armies in live-fire drills in northern Philippines
15. US, UK and German tanks not built for Ukraine war
16. 1st Special Forces Group (Airborne) tests new prototype glider
17.  Conor Grennan Dean of Students, NYU Stern School of Business - "I use ChatGPT all day, every day."
18. War of the drones: How Russia and Ukraine have utilised modern UAV technology against one another since Putin's invasion… and how their unmanned fleet compares
19. Japan Breaks With U.S. Allies, Buys Russian Oil at Prices Above Cap
20.  Putin's school of sexpionage: Book reveals how they trained at academy

Korean News Content:

1. N.K. leader's sister accuses Zelenskyy of gambling with Ukraine's destiny
2. Growing Activity at North Korea’s Experimental Light Water Reactor
3. Activity detected at Yongbyon nuclear site: 38 North
4. [Editorial] Cooperating with world on NK human rights
5. North Korea likely to heighten provocations in April
6.  N. Korea says its nuclear capabilities 'not empty talk'
7. Diplomatic mess (Japan, ROK, and Yoon's state visit to the US)
8.  Korean battery firms to benefit from US IRA guidance
9. FKI to host business events on Yoon’s state visit to U.S.
10. N. Korea repeats nuclear threat as S. Korea steps up joint drills
11. Pay Attention: The “Commentator” Returns - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea
12. Korean battery makers relieved by latest US subsidy guidance
 

4/1/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Sat, 04/01/2023 - 11:23am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Maximizing the potential of American irregular warfare in strategic competition

2. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

3. ‘Dare to fight’: Xi Jinping unveils China’s new world order

4. Defeating Russia Is the Best Way for the West to Defend Taiwan

5. ‘Lower the Rhetoric’ on China, Says Milley

6. The Irregular Warfare Center (IWC) Hosts International Irregular Warfare Week

7. Ukraine Victory Unlikely This Year, Milley Says

8. Report: Chinese State-sponsored Hacking Group Highly Active

9. The Truth About The Philippines’ New Strategy Against China

10. Taiwan, like Ukraine, is fighting for democracy, Tsai says in New York

11. How a Ukrainian Soldier’s Final Act of Defiance Made Him a Hero

12. The Dollar Rules the Financial Universe. China Can’t Change That.

13. France Joins AUKUS Submarine Program - Naval News

14. Marine commandant warns U.S. lacking in key capability for war with China

15. Russia Fears This Rocket Launcher. Here’s Why.

16. Opinion | Yes, TikTok is a threat to America. But so are U.S. social media companies.

17.  Rediscovering Geostrategy

18. Opinion | How Russia turned America’s helping hand to Ukraine into a vast lie

19. Ukraine is Forming Three New Army Corps—Should it Bring Back Divisions Too?

20. Elbridge Colby: China is more dangerous than Russia

21. Zelensky's gambit puts China's Xi on the spot

22. Russia to outline ‘contours of a new world order’ as UN Security Council chair

23. Operation Iraqi Freedom: Learning Lessons from a Lost War 

25. Athena Has Arrived

Korean News Content:

1. U.S. praises courage of President Yoon for mending ties with Japan: Kurt Campbell

2. ROK-US alliance marks the 70th anniversary

3. U.S. lawmaker introduces bill on providing healthcare to Korean veterans of Vietnam War

4. Top U.S. general cancels plan to visit S. Korea due to time restraints: his office

5. Seoul must rekindle its ambition to become financial hub

6. [Translation] “We must continue to arouse public opinion and collect evidence for the prosecution of Kim Jong-un by the ICC.”

7. [Translation] [Q&A] 10th Anniversary of COI... Seoul actively participates in discussion on North Korean Human Rights

8. Opposition leader planned solo trip to North Korea: prosecutors

9. ‘Momentum for change’: Ji Seong-ho highlights North Korea human rights during US trip

10. Is NK's recent nuclear warhead display prelude to nuclear test?

11. Yoon gov't disputes Japanese media's claims about summit

12. How China let a ship banned for ferrying North Korean coal go rogue

13. How to make S Korea-Japan rapprochement endure

14. PLANA Opens Two California Locations While Seeking FAA Certification

15. Korea-Japan Rapprochement: Challenges, Implications and Expectations

16. How Civil Society can Contribute to a Free and Unified Korea

3/31/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Fri, 03/31/2023 - 9:18am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 30, 2023

2. Newly Declassified Government Report Suggests Havana Syndrome Might Be Caused by an Energy Weapon

3. Hackers probing contractors for path to Pentagon, DISA chief says

4. Operation Ugly Baby - 10th Special Forces Group | SOF News

5. AUKUS Agreement Will Help Deter China from Taiwan Invasion, Says Former PACOM CO

6. F-35s Arrive at Kadena as F-15 Withdrawl Continues

7. DARPA wants a Spec Ops plane with a set of insane characteristics – and it wants it fast

8.  ‘Gray Zone’ Competition — The Race for Multi-Domain Capability

9. Why the world needs a strong US navy

10. America’s Looming Munitions Crisis

11. The Open Letter on AI Doesn't Go Far Enough

12. The Enduring Importance of Tactical Counterterrorism for Strategic Competition

13. Americans Are Losing Faith in College Education, WSJ-NORC Poll Finds

14. Opinion | How Putin could finally face justice for his illegal war in Ukraine

15. China and Taiwan Relations Explained: What’s Behind the Divide

16. China Wants to Be at Center of New World Order, Top EU Official Says

17. Surrogate warfare is the future of US operations in Ukraine and beyond

18.  Russia to Assume Rotating U.N. Security Council Presidency Despite Its War in Ukraine

19. The Future of Army Reconnaissance: Lessons from a Marine Corps Exercise in the Mojave Desert

20. How China’s Spies Fooled an America That Wanted to be Fooled

21. Building A New American Arsenal

22. Defending the Rules-Based Order: The US at a Crossroads (ICC)

23. Marine Corps rejects Pentagon’s pitch for new amphibious ship designs

Korean News Content:

1. N. Korea plans to send weapons, munitions to Russia in exchange for food: NSC

2. Over 40% of Americans approve of NATO-style nuclear sharing with S. Korea

3. Japanese textbook row threatens diplomatic progress with South Korea, China

4. North Korea publicly executed six-months pregnant mother, carried out human experiments

5. Seoul lifts lid on once-classified N. Korea human rights reports

6. Presidential office says no Blackpink-Lady Gaga joint concert at summit

7. New security adviser feels grave responsibility

8. [Editorial] An umbrella union that went too far

9. [INTERVIEW] North Korean defectors bear brunt of remittance scams

10. North Korea “Tactical Nuke” Drill: Claims on Command/Control and Hints of A First-ever Silo Launch

11. Treasury Sanctions Arms Dealer Who Attempted to Broker Deals Between North Korea and Russia

12. S. Korea to fully open DMZ hiking trails starting next month

13. Intelligence Collection: “KCTU Labor Union Cadres Entered U.S. Military Bases, Photographed Facilities, and Sent the Pictures to North Korea”

14. Yoon's approval rating falls to 30 pct: poll

15. North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Are a Threat to All Nations

16. North Korean Executions and Torture Alleged in New Report

3/30/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Thu, 03/30/2023 - 9:23am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:


1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 29, 2023
2. How US trainers helped Ukraine reinvent its doctrine
3. Zelenskyy to Xi Jinping: Come to Ukraine
4. ‘Stone Ghost’ secret intel network may expand to more nations: DIA
5. Milley Says War With China, Russia Not Inevitable
6. Could The US Dollar Collapse?
7. First vice foreign minister tapped as new ambassador to U.S.
8. Has Congress Learned the Lessons of the Iraq War?
9. Fostering a Fourth Democratic Wave: A playbook for countering the authoritarian threat
10. Ukraine Situation Report: Wagner Has Up To 36,000 Troops In Bakhmut Says Top US General
11. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's testimony on the ASU IWC at the Senate Armed Services Committee
12. WATCH: Retired Lt. Col.'s Remarks Receive Thunderous Applause From House Foreign Affairs Committee
13. Pentagon Leaders Still Say ‘No’ to F-16s, MQ-9s for Ukraine
14. 'It's not a pretty picture': Russia's support is growing in the developing world
15. Pentagon urged to use federal workforce instead of contractors
16. Two Black Hawks crash near Fort Campbell, casualties reported
17. China threatens to retaliate if McCarthy meets Taiwan leader
18. Why Force Fails
19. Russia Won’t Sit Idly by after Finland and Sweden Join NATO
20. China’s diplomatic wins rise from America’s losses
21. How China overreached and lost its grip in the Pacific
22. Strengthening the Medical Sphere of Influence Through Guerilla Trauma Systems and Covert Medical Intelligence Networks
23. Preliminary Lessons from Russia’s Unconventional Operations During the Russo-Ukrainian War, February 2022–February 2023
24. Bipolar disorder: my blessing and my curse

Korean News Content:

1. The Root of All Evil: Money, Rice, Crime & Law in North Korea (HRNK Report by Joshua Stanton)

2. Top envoy to US tapped as new national security advisor

3. Opinion | I Know How Nuclear War Is Waged, So I’m Calling for Peace With North Korea

4. 'One of the great absurdities in global geopolitics': Ex-Air Force general calls for formally ending the Korean War

5. Resignations by Yoon's diplomatic aides weigh on US summit

6. S. Korea releases report on N. Korea's human rights violations

7. Korea, Japan begin talks on corporate exchanges, trade in earnest after summit

8. Yoon's 'audacious initiative' for NK denuclearization hangs in balance

9. What’s behind the popularity of N. Korea’s version of Netflix?

10. US air base in South Korea halts flight ops for summer of repairs

11.  US ambassador highlights extended deterrence in countering NK nuclear threats

12. 'Korean Dream' toward a unified Korea

13. Yoon-Biden summit - onward toward unification

14. South Korea to host third Summit for Democracy

 

3/29/23 National Security and Korean News and Commentary

Wed, 03/29/2023 - 6:33am

Access National Security News HERE.

Access Korean News HERE.

National Security News Content:

1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 28, 2023

2. Winning the New Cold War: A Plan for Countering China

3. Competition With China Drives FY 2024 Budget Request

4. Summit for Democracy: Democracy Cohort Outcomes - United States Department of State

5. Gendered Disinformation: Tactics, Themes, and Trends by Foreign Malign Actors - United States Department of State

6. Pentagon Woos Silicon Valley to Join Ranks of Arms Makers

7. Ukraine launches U.S. "small diameter" bomb with longer range than HIMARS

8. China seeks stalemate in Ukraine, US diversion from Taiwan

9. For shared human values: Forum on democracy opens in Beijing

10. Ukraine Offensive Takes Shape, With Big Unknowns

11. Americans hooked on Chinese apps

12. FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order to Prohibit U.S. Government Use of Commercial Spyware that Poses Risks to National Security

13. Why is Biden doing another pointless Summit for Democracy?

14. China spent $240 billion bailing out 'Belt and Road' countries - study

15. The U.S. Should Get Over Its Short War Obsession

16. Why You Fell for the Fake Pope Coat

17. USAID, Internews, and Microsoft Announce Public-Private Partnership to Develop Media Viability Accelerator

18. Russian Nukes in Belarus: Just Another Gimmick by Putin

19. Here Is Everything Taiwan Needs to Stop a Chinese Invasion

20. Pick a True Believer to Run Your Military Campaigns

21. Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

22. How to Protect American Democracy

23. Over-the-Horizon and Under the Threshold: Bringing Unconventional Warfare to Ukraine

24. Building R2-D2 - (AI)

25: Poll: Cut federal spending — but not big-ticket programs

26. He came to D.C. as a Brazilian student. The U.S. says he was a Russian spy.

Korean News Content:

1. U.S. will continue building defense capabilities against N. Korean nuclear threats: Kirby

2. U.S., S. Korea enhancing joint deterrence against N. Korean aggression: Austin

3.  S. Korea voices 'deep regrets' over Japan's controversial history textbooks

4. Fat man shows off his Fat Man: Kim Jong-un poses next to 'his new tactical nukes' as he calls for 'exponential' growth of his nuclear arsenal

5. North Korean hackers play the ‘long con’ by targeting experts

6. South Korea’s ‘Three Axis’ Defense System Is in Trouble

7. Nat'l security adviser resigns amid reported trouble planning U.S. state visit

8. Possibility of replacing national security advisor reportedly reviewed

9. National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han resigns

10. Google researchers name new North Korea state-backed hacking group

11. South's UN envoy slams Russian, Chinese narratives

12. Cybercriminals targeting U.S. on behalf of North Korea: Report

13. DPR Korea: Truth, justice needed amid ‘tragic’ legacy of enforced disappearances

14. Chinese ambassador arrives in North Korea in sign of reopening

15. Revised Japanese textbooks distort wartime forced labor, catching Korea off guard

16. US and South Korea send thousands of troops and 23-ton vehicles to practice beach assault