11/16/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine Is 94.5% effective, early results show
2. China's new wolf warrior diplomacy is a Maoist resurrection
3. Hopes and doubts in Beijing
4. How Biden and Xi can keep the new cold war from turning hot
5. More than 100K federal employees have had COVID-19
6. Coronavirus cases are spiking at federal agencies
7. Scoop: Trump plans last-minute China crackdown
8. The new world order that President Biden will inherit
9. Hollyanne Milley, wife of Joint Chiefs chairman, saves veteran's life at Arlington
10. SEALs, green berets join large defense drill in Sweden
11. Who is Michelle Flournoy? Meet Biden’s likely pick to head the Pentagon
12. America’s forgotten marine highway network that could green global freight transport
13. In the mercenaries’ own words: documents detail TigerSwan infiltration of Standing Rock
14. Woman who compiled SAS 'war crimes' report breaks her silence
15. Father and son, both active-duty officers, graduate Ranger School exactly 35 years apart
16. Special Operations Warrior Foundation leaves no child of America’s fallen special operators behind
1. Moderna’s covid-19 vaccine Is 94.5% effective, early results show
Wall Street Journal · Peter Loftus · November 16, 2020
We should be very hopeful. But now the challenge begins. We have got to get this out to the world to break the hold the virus has on all of us. But we cannot become complacent, because the rate of positive cases and hospitalizations is rising so fast.
2. China's new wolf warrior diplomacy is a Maoist resurrection
Sydney Morning Herald · Anne-Marie Brady · November 16, 2020
3. Hopes and doubts in Beijing
Foreign Affairs · Cheng Li · November 13, 2020
I just hope no one produces a "reset button."
4. How Biden and Xi can keep the new cold war from turning hot
Bloomberg · Niall Ferguson · November 15, 2020
We need to successfully compete across the spectrum while not allowing the cold war to turn hot. We have to be able to conduct a superior form of political warfare.
5. More than 100K federal employees have had COVID-19
News Max · Eric Mack · November 15, 2020
6. Coronavirus cases are spiking at federal agencies
Defense One · Eric Katz · November 15, 2020
More details on key agencies.
7. Scoop: Trump plans last-minute China crackdown
Axios · Jonathan Swan & Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian · November 15, 2020
This is one area (among many) that should require transition coordination.
8. The new world order that President Biden will inherit
New York Times · Editorial Board · November 15, 2020
Some of the scariest words: “New World Order." Recall when President George H.W. Bush used them after the fall of the USSR, how they were blown out of proportion by extremists who think they meant a global government structure.
9. Hollyanne Milley, wife of Joint Chiefs chairman, saves veteran's life at Arlington
Military.com · Richard Sisk · November 13, 2020
Hooah. Kudos to Mrs. Milley.
10. SEALs, green berets join large defense drill in Sweden
Military.com · John Vandiver · November 15, 2020
Implementing the Resistance Operating Concept. Good work. Here is a summary of the concept.
11. Who is Michelle Flournoy? Meet Biden’s likely pick to head the Pentagon
Fortune · Lolita C. Baldor, Robert Burns, & the AP · November 15, 2020
12. America’s forgotten marine highway network that could green global freight transport
Forbes · Nishan Degnarain · November 15, 2020
13. In the mercenaries’ own words: documents detail TigerSwan infiltration of Standing Rock
Intercept · Alleen Brown · November 15, 2020
Very interesting story.
14. Woman who compiled SAS 'war crimes' report breaks her silence
Daily Mail · Alana Mazzoni · November 15, 2020
Tragic story from Australia.
15. Father and son, both active-duty officers, graduate Ranger School exactly 35 years apart
Army Times · Harm Venhuizen · November 15, 2020
The family business. How many parent-children military personnel do we have?
16. Special Operations Warrior Foundation leaves no child of America’s fallen special operators behind
Coffee or Die · Nolan Peterson · November 15, 2020
One of the important charitable organizations to which I give every year. Kudos to Clay Hutmacher. (and heartfelt thanks to Ross Perot and his vision)
"Propaganda vs. Truth. How can I tell them apart? The answer is simple: If you agree with it, it is the truth. If you don't agree, it's propaganda."
- Psychological Warfare, Second Edition, by Paul Linebarger, Combat Forces Press, Washington D.C. 1954
General Melchett: “If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.”
- “Blackadder Goes Forth”
"The young always have the same problem - how to rebel and conform at the same time. They have solved this by defying their parents and copying one another."
- Quentin Crisp
11/16/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Choe Son Hui reworking N. Korea's foreign policy strategy toward US
2. The underground movement trying to topple the North Korean regime
3, An interview with the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea
4. N.K. leader presides over politburo meeting in first public appearance in 25 days
5. With Joe Biden in charge, no more flashy Kim Jong Un summits
6. N.Korea's Kim orders tightening of anti-virus measures amid global pandemic -KCNA
7. One of Biden’s first acts as president-elect was to antagonize Kim Jong Un
8. Korea must stop taking Chinese chicanery lying down
9. U.S. ambassador congratulates four Korean Americans on winning U.S. House elections
10. Why is North Korea so good at cybercrime?
11. ICBM test or talks? Why North Korea might negotiate with Joe Biden
12. Seoul sends a series of signals to Tokyo
13. Ruling party lawmakers head to U.S. for discussions on N.K., alliance following Biden's election
14. S. Korea warns of another wave of pandemic as new virus cases over 200 for 3rd day
15. 8 members of voice phishing ring arrested amid suspicions of link to N.K. hacker
16. S. Korea decides to spend 1.95 bln won to transform DMZ guard post into museum
17. Moon mulls cabinet shake-up to affect three to four ministers: sources
18. Remains of 2 Korean independence fighters repatriated from U.S.
1. Choe Son Hui reworking N. Korea's foreign policy strategy toward US
Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 16, 2020
How many people in the US government, current or past, know Choi? Perhaps we have had an effect on the regime? I am being very optimistic here and interpreting this as the possibility the regime may be willing to have substantive working level negotiations. My very pessimistic side tells me the regime is re-evaluating and adjusting its strategy to give the appearance of seeking working level negotiations when in reality it sees an opportunity to refine its political warfare strategy and long con with the new administration. As we move forward, we need to continually assess the regime asking two key questions:
- Do we believe that Kim Jong-Un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy—that of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
- In support of that strategy, do we believe that Kim Jong-Un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
We must evaluate changes in the regime's strategy by assessing these two questions.
2. The underground movement trying to topple the North Korean regime
New Yorker · Suki Kim · November 16, 2020
A long article that details: Adrian Hong; his efforts with LINK; the NGO work he did; Free Joseon; the "rescue" of Kim Han Sol; the Madrid incident at the North Korean embassy, and his subsequent efforts to remain in hiding.
My thoughts on supporting Korean unification and resistance in North Korea are here.
Should The United States Support Korean Unification And If So, How? (International Journal of Korean Studies, Vol. XVIII, No. 1)
Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance (International Journal of Korean Unification Studies, Vol. 24, No. 2, 2015, 127–152)
3. An interview with the U.S. ambassador to the Republic of Korea
USNI · Proceedings · November 2020
A classic line from the Ambassador! "Right now, I’d like to fly anything other than my BMD-1A. (That’s Big Mahogany Desk.)"
On a serious note, this interview covers a lot of ground, not only about our linchpin alliance but also insights about DOD, DOS, China, and a free and open INDOPAFIC.
4. N.K. leader presides over politburo meeting in first public appearance in 25 days
Yonhap News Agency · 장재순 · November 16, 2020
A Kim Jong-Un sighting - time to restart the "Kim watch clock."
5. With Joe Biden in charge, no more flashy Kim Jong Un summits
Wall Street Journal · Andrew Jeong · November 16, 2020
An ominous subtitle: "The president-elect will be the first to enter office with a North Korea that has shown an ability to hit the U.S. mainland with a missile"
6. N.Korea's Kim orders tightening of anti-virus measures amid global pandemic -KCNA
National Post · Sangmi Cha & Peter Cooney (Reuters) · November 15, 2020
Kim is afraid, very afraid of COVID-19.
7. One of Biden’s first acts as president-elect was to antagonize Kim Jong Un
Daily Beast · Donald Kirk · November 16, 2020
The message I was referring to in my comment below was, in addition to his attendance at the Veteran's Day ceremony, Biden's op-ed in Yonhap News on October 30.
8. Korea must stop taking Chinese chicanery lying down
Chosun Ilbo · November 16, 2020
South Korea must deal with China as it really is and not as it wishes it would be.
9. U.S. ambassador congratulates four Korean Americans on winning U.S. House elections
Yonhap News Agency · 김승연 · November 16, 2020
Again, Koreans are very proud of their Korean Americans, who were elected to Congress in the US, and the Ambassador acknowledges their success.
10. Why is North Korea so good at cybercrime?
Diplomat · Jason Bartlett · November 13, 2020
Necessity is the mother of invention and desperation is the father of illicit activities. The regime's "all-purpose sword" is a critical capability for survival of the regime and its ability to advance its strategy.
11. ICBM test or talks? Why North Korea might negotiate with Joe Biden
National Interest · Robert E. Kelly · November 15, 2020
North Korea will negotiate especially if Kim thinks he can successfully execute his political warfare strategy and long con through negotiation. But we should recognize that will only be one line of effort toward the regime's objective to dominate the peninsula under the domination of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
The short-term objective of negotiations will be to get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons.
12. Seoul sends a series of signals to Tokyo
Dong-A Ilbo · Young-Sik Kim · November 16, 2020
The one signal that President Moon and Prime Minister Suga need to send the other is the commitment to prioritize national security and national prosperity while they separately manage the historical issues.
13. Ruling party lawmakers head to U.S. for discussions on N.K., alliance following Biden's election
Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · November 15, 2020
14. S. Korea warns of another wave of pandemic as new virus cases over 200 for 3rd day
Yonhap News Agency · 김은정 · November 16, 2020
We cannot get a worldwide vaccine and vaccination program fast enough.
15. 8 members of voice phishing ring arrested amid suspicions of link to N.K. hacker
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 16, 2020
Witting or unwitting?
16. S. Korea decides to spend 1.95 bln won to transform DMZ guard post into museum
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 16, 2020
The Arrowhead area is a "beautiful" historic site. If the guard post is the one on the high ground overlooking Arrowhead in the 5th Division AOR, it could use a good infusion of cash to improve it, but it focuses more on the war and the threat and will have to be revamped to include inter-Korean reconciliation. Yes, there needs to be peace and conciliation, but the Korean people in the South also must not be allowed to forget or overlook the remaining existential threat the North poses.
17. Moon mulls cabinet shake-up to affect three to four ministers: sources
Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · November 16, 2020
I did not see this coming. Foreign Minister Kang has a very tough job having to compete with the Ministry of Unification, the NIS, and the advisors in the Blue House.
18. Remains of 2 Korean independence fighters repatriated from U.S.
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · November 16, 2020
"Propaganda vs. Truth. How can I tell them apart? The answer is simple: If you agree with it, it is the truth. If you don't agree, it's propaganda."
- Psychological Warfare, Second Edition, by Paul Linebarger, Combat Forces Press, Washington D.C. 1954
"General Melchett: 'If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through.'”
- “Blackadder Goes Forth”
"The young always have the same problem - how to rebel and conform at the same time. They have solved this by defying their parents and copying one another."
- Quentin Crisp
Civil Affairs Association Publication: Carving our Niche: A Modular Concept for Future Civil Affairs
https://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/post/carving-our-niche-a-modular-concept-for-future-special-operations-forces-civil-affairs
By Brenden Jackman
Problem Statement
How does a four-person Civil Affairs Team (CAT) conduct Human Network Analysis (HNA), Foreign Internal Defense (FID), Humanitarian Assistance (HA), and support to Unconventional Warfare (UW) over an entire Area of Responsibility (AOR) when statistically one person being non-mission capable reduces its the team’ capabilities by 25 percent? The current CAT structure restricts the ability to balance survivability with the accomplishment of a mission. Additionally, the nature of Civil Affairs missions requires a wider skill set to meet the supported commander’s intent.
11/15/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Video in Honor of the late Major General Victor J. Hugo Jr., USA (Ret.)
2. The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power
3. Missile Defense Drama: Why America Isn't Prepared
4. Taiwan Defense Ministry, Pentagon deny U.S. Marines' presence for training
5. To Fight the Next Pandemic, the World Needs Chinese Activists
6. Opinion | The coronavirus's origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.
7. Parler Makes Play for Conservatives Mad at Facebook, Twitter
8. Christmas terror attack: Security expert issues a chilling warning
9. A harder US line? Potential Pentagon chief floated idea to sink China fleet in 72 hours
10. In Trump's final days, a 30-year-old aide purges officials seen as insufficiently loyal
11. The US and Japan Are Digging in their Heels Over the Senkaku Islands
12. US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship
13. Rolling Back Trump's Workforce Policies Won't Be Simple
14. A Decade Later, this Afghanistan Special Operations Story is Finally Coming to the Screen
15. 3 legendary leaders who made America's special-operations units into the elite forces they are today
16. Asia-Pacific nations sign world's biggest free-trade agreement
17. Top NPA leader killed in clash in Zamboanga del Norte - military
1. Video in Honor of the late Major General Victor J. Hugo Jr., USA (Ret.)
MG Victor Hugo died from COVID-19 in April and was interred at Arlington yesterday. This 13 minute video is a fitting tribute to him. MG Hugo was at the tip of the spear for so many important missions in the Army and after his retirement and many are recounted in this short video. It is very much worth watching His life was full of more adventure than you could read in a novel. And he made lasting contributions to our national security much as a result of his Special Forces training, experience, and expertise. We should all aspire to live up to his example.
It was an honor to know him these past many years. I had the good fortune to be part of the team with him working on the National Museum for Intelligence and Special Operations as a member of the OSS Society board of directors.
https://vimeo.com/477261473/5ec5854d
2. The Pandemic Is Revealing a New Form of National Power
The Atlantic · by Uri Friedman · November 15, 2020
There is a lot to be said for the importance of resilience in everything from dealing with pandemics to cyber-attacks to even nuclear attacks.
An interesting excerpt: "The scholar Bruce Jones has chronicled how a number of the world's "middle powers" have, "in the absence of credible great-power leadership from the United States or China ... led the way in coordinating health and economic responses" to COVID-19-an extension of their pre-pandemic efforts to bolster the multilateral system. They have, for instance, collaborated on financial responses through the Group of Seven and raised billions of dollars for international work on developing and distributing vaccines. Middle-power governments that have navigated the crisis relatively well have bolstered their reputations at home and abroad. Governments that have fared relatively poorly have sustained serious damage to their reputations and thus their standing at home and stores of soft power abroad."
3. Missile Defense Drama: Why America Isn't Prepared
The National Interest · by Peter Huessy · November 14, 2020
Excerpts:
Given the importance of the homeland defense mission, we must continue to invest in this critical capability. The current GBI system, though impressive, was developed under enormous time pressures using technologies from the late 1990s. We now have the opportunity, based on decades of experience, to do the next job better with the complimentary NGI program.
Remember, the enemies of the United States are not dealing with continuing resolutions, split legislatures or budget shortfalls. They are proceeding rapidly toward the future as made clear by the new North Korean ICBM threat. Congress must provide the full funding for GBI updates and accelerate the military's effort to develop and deploy this new NGI homeland defense capability - and bring it home on time and on budget.
4. Taiwan Defense Ministry, Pentagon deny U.S. Marines' presence for training
japantimes.co.jp · by Jesse Johnson · November 13, 2020
It would be interesting to run this whole incident to ground. Who provided the information to the Taiwanese media that originally published the report? What was the internet and who was the target audience? And of course did some kind of training actually take place and was it blown out of proportion?
The reports seemed pretty specific regarding the presence and training of MARSOC's Raiders.
5. To Fight the Next Pandemic, the World Needs Chinese Activists
thediplomat.com – by Sara L.M. Davis, Shen Tingting, and Lu Jun - November 13, 2020
Very interesting thesis.
Conclusion: "These community systems supplement the formal health system, because they enjoy the trust of those who are most vulnerable. An authoritarian approach is short-sighted; it weakens a country's immune system, leaving the whole world vulnerable to the next outbreak. By clamping down on civil society and community groups, the state has weakened public health and repeated the errors committed during the SARS and HIV epidemic. In so doing, the state may have undermined its long-term ability to respond to future infectious disease outbreaks. COVID-19 is under control in China, for now - but how will the world know about the next pandemic without these independent voices?"
As an aside, this is also why activists around the world need access to the tools that have been provided by the US Agency for Global Media to be able to circumvent internet censorship and to be able to communicate with the outside world. It is too bad that USAGM appears to have halted funding for them.
6. Opinion | The coronavirus's origins are still a mystery. We need a full investigation.
The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · November 14, 2020
Interesting OpEd from the WAPOST Editorial Board, though I am sure some are hoping for the conspiracy theory explanation that this was a deliberate act by China (and more specifically the CCP). This OpEd does not go down that rabbit hole.
Excerpt: "Preventing the next pandemic," wrote Dr. Relman, "depends on understanding the origins of this one."
7. Parler Makes Play for Conservatives Mad at Facebook, Twitter
WSJ · by Jeff Horwitz and Keach Hagey
I would not be surprised if in the next year or two Parler is bought out and absorbed by one of the major social media companies. It is all about the benjamins.
8. Christmas terror attack: Security expert issues a chilling warning
WSJ · by Jeff Horwitz and Keach Hagey
A warning for Australia.
9. A harder US line? Potential Pentagon chief floated idea to sink China fleet in 72 hours
news.abs-cbn.com · by Liu Zhen
Sigh... I think Ms Flournoy was taken out of context. She was talking about deterrence and posting a "what if" to support deterrence.
Excerpt: "For example, if the US military had the capability to credibly threaten to sink all of China's military vessels, submarines, and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours, Chinese leaders might think twice before, say, launching a blockade or invasion of Taiwan; they would have to wonder whether it was worth putting their entire fleet at risk," Flournoy said."
Here is the link to Ms Flournoy's article in Foriegn Affairs: How to Prevent a War in Asia: The Erosion of American Deterrence Raises the Risk of Chinese Miscalculation, June 18, 2020: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-18/how-prevent-war-asia
10. In Trump's final days, a 30-year-old aide purges officials seen as insufficiently loyal
The Washington Post · November 14, 2020
Personnel is policy. This is quite a report.
11. The US and Japan Are Digging in their Heels Over the Senkaku Islands
The National Interest · by Brian Victoria · November 15, 2020
A line in the sand (or the ocean)?
This is a historical analysis that seeks to undermine the Japanese claims to the islands.
12. US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship
US urges Japan and South Korea to speak out against China despite trading relationship
13. Rolling Back Trump's Workforce Policies Won't Be Simple
defenseone.com · by Erich Wagner
Again, personnel is policy. We forget that our civil service is full of servants who choose to serve our country in a civilian capacity. Just like in any are of the government, the military, or private industry there are people who should be removed for inferior performance. However, we should not be approaching our civil service and personnel policies from the perspective that our civil service is the enemy or worse, the "deep state."
14. A Decade Later, this Afghanistan Special Operations Story is Finally Coming to the Screen
military.com · by James Barber · November 13, 2020
I would be interested to know how many Rangers from the actual tragic incident will be involved in consulting on the making of this film.
15. 3 legendary leaders who made America's special-operations units into the elite forces they are today
whobserver.com · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · November 13, 2020
Beckwith, Bargewell, and McChrystal.
16. Asia-Pacific nations sign world's biggest free-trade agreement
DW · by Deutsche Welle
"It has actually been suggested that warfare may have been the principle evolutionary pressure that created the huge gap between the human brain and that of our closest living relatives, the anthropoid apes. Whole groups of hominids with inferior brains could not win wars and were therefore exterminated."
- Jane Goodall
"The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops. "
- Brigadier General S.B. Griffith, II, USMC
"Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. He who molds opinion is greater than he who enacts laws."
- President Abraham Lincoln
11/15/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. From love to thug, what President-elect Biden means for North Korea
2. North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) Deserve Our Attention
3. Did these 'Assassins' actually kill Kim Jong Un's brother?
4. Relations Between Biden and Kim Jong-un Don't Have to Go Wrong
5. Before Trump, South Korean Conservatives Also Claimed a 'Stolen' Election
6. North Korean nukes 'scared off top footballers from joining South Korean clubs'
7. Congress to vote on resolutions reaffirming strength of alliance with Korea
8. Seoul mulls stricter social distancing as new infections exceed 200 for 2nd day
9. Demographic crisis looming large over Korea
10. Moon seeks to rekindle nuclear talks at Tokyo Olympics
11. German amb. says freedom of expression important amid row over 'comfort woman' statue in Berlin
12. Ruling party envisions moving National Assembly from Seoul to Sejong
1. From love to thug, what President-elect Biden means for North Korea
CNN · by Paula Hancocks
Key point from Evans Revere: "Biden is not about to ignore North Korea, and Pyongyang can be counted on to ensure that he doesn't."
2. North Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) Deserve Our Attention
The National Interest · by Peter Brookes · November 14, 2020
The key points we should take from the "new" SLBM and ICBM is that the Kim regime remains bent on developing new military capabilities across the spectrum, from conventional to nuclear weapons, and will continue to conduct blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions by demonstrating threats and hostile intentions. But all of these actions are focused on one objective - to allow the north to dominate the entire peninsula through subversion, coercion/extortion, and use of force to ensure. survival of the regime.
3. Did these 'Assassins' actually kill Kim Jong Un's brother?
New York Post · by Ben Cost · November 12, 2020
I still have not found where this movie will be shown. I wonder what are "virtual cinemas?" It looks like December 11th is the date.
4. Relations Between Biden and Kim Jong-un Don't Have to Go Wrong
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · November 14, 2020
Yes. All we need is for Kim Jong-un to completely change his behavior and act like a responsible member of the international community.
But I can agree with this conclusion: "The Kim dynasty has proven its meddle in surviving. But that doesn't mean Pyongyang still wouldn't like to see economic sanctions relaxed or lifted at some point. Kim can kiss that possibility goodbye if he shoots before he thinks."
5. Before Trump, South Korean Conservatives Also Claimed a 'Stolen' Election
thediplomat.com – by Dongwoo Kim - November 11, 2020
The difference is the US government has stated this: "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."
Joint Statement from Elections Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council & the Election Infrastructure Sector Coordinating Executive Committees | CISA
6. North Korean nukes 'scared off top footballers from joining South Korean clubs'
dailystar.co.uk · by Berny Torre · November 15, 2020
Excerpt:
He added: "It wasn't too much of a worry but it's always in the back of your mind that North Korea is there.
"One of the benefits of being in Busan in the south east was you were in the part of Korea which was the furthest from North Korea.
"All of the clubs area based in Seoul and they are very very close to North Korea."
7. Congress to vote on resolutions reaffirming strength of alliance with Korea
Again, Korea is one of the most bi-partisan of all national security issues.
However, I wish our Congress would recommend a reassessment of combined alliance assumptions about north Korea and the nature, strategy, and objectives of the Kim family regime. The incoming administration needs to work with South Korea to help the Moon administration that we cannot proceed with Moon's peace vision if Kim Jong-un does not share that vision (and he does not).
Excerpt: "Korea-U.S. relations [mean] we are allies that must closely cooperate no matter which administration is in power," Song said. "We will work to ensure the Korean Peninsula peace policy advocated by President Moon may be accepted by the Biden administration by improving mutual understanding."
8. Seoul mulls stricter social distancing as new infections exceed 200 for 2nd day
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · November 15, 2020
The virus is proving most resilient around the world.
9. Demographic crisis looming large over Korea
The Korea Times – by Kim Bo-eun - November 15, 2020
This is a major (if not the major) strategic weakness of South Korea. What this article does not address is the impact on the South Korean military.
10. Moon seeks to rekindle nuclear talks at Tokyo Olympics
The Korea Times · November 15, 2020
It worked once??? What is Plan B if the Olympics are again postponed or cancelled?
11. German amb. says freedom of expression important amid row over 'comfort woman' statue in Berlin
The Korea Times · November 15, 2020
I bet Germany wishes it did not get in the middle of this.
12. Ruling party envisions moving National Assembly from Seoul to Sejong
koreaherald.com · by The Ko Jun-tae · November 15, 2020
"It has actually been suggested that warfare may have been the principle evolutionary pressure that created the huge gap between the human brain and that of our closest living relatives, the anthropoid apes. Whole groups of hominids with inferior brains could not win wars and were therefore exterminated."
- Jane Goodall
"The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops. "
- Brigadier General S.B. Griffith, II, USMC
"Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment nothing can fail. Without it nothing can succeed. He who molds opinion is greater than he who enacts laws."
- President Abraham Lincoln
Video in Honor of the late Major General Victor J. Hugo Jr., USA (Ret.)
MG Victor Hugo died from COVID-19 in April and was interred at Arlington yesterday. This 13 minute video is a fitting tribute to him. MG Hugo was at the tip of the spear for so many important missions in the Army and after his retirement and many are recounted in this short video. It is very much worth watching His life was full of more adventure than you could read in a novel. And he made lasting contributions to our national security much as a result of his Special Forces training, experience, and expertise. We should all aspire to live up to his example. https://vimeo.com/477261473/5ec5854d
11/14/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Initial Message to the Department: Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller released his initial message to the Defense Department.
2. Want to work for Biden? Better send your information in soon.
3. Al Qaeda's No. 2, Accused in U.S. Embassy Attacks, Was Killed in Iran
4. Esper replacement Chris Miller tells US troops: 'It's time to come home'
5. 'The long knives are out': The Pentagon purge may be less about a Trump plan than end-of-presidency chaos and revenge
6. Microsoft: Russian, North Korean hackers target vaccine work
7. The revenge of Col. Douglas Macgregor
8. A worried Asia wonders about a Biden administration
9. Why is US Army still training with China's PLA?
10. Philippine Military Kills 7 Suspected Militants in 2 Southern Raids
11. More Green Card Holders Are Becoming U.S. Citizens
12. US-China military talks aim to ease tensions with COVID-19 prevention focus
13. Military Geography and Military Strategy
14. As China's military confidence grows, it's now looking to 'design' how war is fought
15. Starting Dec. 1, Cybersecurity Is No Longer Optional
16. Biden considers Angus King for top intelligence post
1. Initial Message to the Department: Acting Defense Secretary Christopher C. Miller released his initial message to the Defense Department.
The PDF is at this link: https://media.defense.gov/2020/Nov/14/2002535407/-1/-1/0/INITIAL-MESSAGE-TO-THE-DEPARTMENT.PDF?source=GovDelivery
Key excerpt:
"As we prepare for the future. we remain committed to finishing the war that Al Qaida brought to our shores in 2001. This war isn't over. We are on the verge of defeating Al Qaida and its associates, but we must avoid our past strategic error of failing to see the fight through to the finish. Indeed, this fight has been long, our sacrifices have been enormous. and many are weary of war - I'm one of them - but this is the critical phase in which we transition our efforts from a leadership to supporting role. We are not a people of perpetual war - it is the antithesis of everything for which we stand and for which our ancestors fought. All wars must end."
2. Want to work for Biden? Better send your information in soon.
Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · November 13, 2020
If you did not get your email then I guess it is too late to apply to work in the administration (I did not get one!! Not that I expected one)
3. Al Qaeda's No. 2, Accused in U.S. Embassy Attacks, Was Killed in Iran
The New York Times · by Adam Goldman · November 14, 2020
A pretty bold operation. Always good to remove another terrorist from the global battlefield. Now for the blowback.
4. Esper replacement Chris Miller tells US troops: 'It's time to come home'
foxnews.com · by Brie Stimson
This looks like this could be the real proximate cause for Esper's firing: "Shortly before he was fired, Esper reportedly sent a classified memo to the White House, warning against lowering troops levels any further because of conditions on the ground, including ongoing violence, the potential danger to remaining troops and the harm it could cause to U.S. alliances in the region, The Washington Post reported, citing current and former officials speaking on condition of anonymity."
5. 'The long knives are out': The Pentagon purge may be less about a Trump plan than end-of-presidency chaos and revenge
news.yahoo.com · by Sean D. Naylor and Jenna McLaughlin · November 13, 2020
This article covers a lot of ground from the firing and resignations to the conspiracy theories to the transition process (or lack thereof).
6. Microsoft: Russian, North Korean hackers target vaccine work
AP · by FRANK BAJAK · November 13, 2020
No surprise here.
7. The revenge of Col. Douglas Macgregor
responsiblestatecraft.org · by Mark Perry · November 12, 2020
Probably the only positive article on Macgregor comes from the Quincy Institute's Responsible Statecraft.
8. A worried Asia wonders about a Biden administration
taipeitimes.com – by Foster King
Certainly, US domestic issues will dominate but any administration must be able to walk and chew gum and deal with domestic and foreign policy issues simultaneously (though the one of the key points of strategy is the ability to prioritize). It will all be dependent on the team the new administration puts in place.
9. Why is US Army still training with China's PLA?
asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · November 12, 2020
Keep your friends close and your enemies closer? Know yourself and know your enemy?
Sarcasm aside, this is a brutal critique of the US military in general and the US Army in particular.
10. Philippine Military Kills 7 Suspected Militants in 2 Southern Raids
benarnews.org – by Richel V. Umel
11. More Green Card Holders Are Becoming U.S. Citizens
WSJ · by Jo Craven McGinty
An interesting development and some interesting statistics. We are a melting pot.
12. US-China military talks aim to ease tensions with COVID-19 prevention focus
The Korea Times · November 13, 2020
A Chinese view to counter Grant Newsham's article in Asia Times criticizing this military engagement.
13. Military Geography and Military Strategy
warroom.armywarcollege.edu · by Thomas Bruscino · November 12, 2020
Everyone should have a copy of the late John Collins' book, Military Geography on their bookshelf. https://www.amazon.com/Military-Geography-Professionals-John-Collins/dp/1478267313
I have long recommended the five key subjects that should part of all PME programs are the following:
Military History
Military Theory
Military Geography
Operational Art
Military Strategy
14. As China's military confidence grows, it's now looking to 'design' how war is fought
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3109585/chinas-military-confidence-grows-its-now-looking-design-how-war - by Kristin Huang – 13 November 2020
15. Starting Dec. 1, Cybersecurity Is No Longer Optional
breakingdefense.com · by Kelsey Atherton
16. Biden considers Angus King for top intelligence post
"There is no rule on how to write. Sometimes it comes easily and perfectly; sometimes it's like drilling rock and then blasting it out with charges."
- Hemingway
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
- Evelyn Beatrice Hall in The Friends of Voltaire (1906)
"Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth."
- William Faulkner
11/14/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Why North Korean Provocations Toward a Biden Administration Will Fail
2. Joe Biden seeks a reset in US-South Korea relations amid North Korea challenges
3. North Korea waging propaganda-heavy, 80-day labor campaign
4. Two interesting new Twitter accounts (from north Korea)
5. Biden and North Korea
6. South Koreans Rarely Think About North Korea - and Why It Matters
7. Seoul seeks breakthrough in ties with Tokyo
8. Fourth Korean-American wins U.S. House election
9. President-Elect Biden and South Korean President Moon Reaffirm U.S.-ROK Alliance in Return to Normalcy
10. What's Kim planning? North Korea silent for WEEKS - fears grow of explosive plot for Biden
11. China is Already Preparing for the Next Korean War
12. Trump will leave office foiled by the North Korea nuclear problem. Will Biden fare better?
13. Moon pledges $10 million to support developing nations with COVID-19 vaccine
14. Air taxis set to soar over Seoul's skies
1. Why North Korean Provocations Toward a Biden Administration Will Fail
The National Interest · by Scott A. Snyder · November 13, 2020
As long as we do not give into the regime's blackmail diplomacy, provocations will fail. And we should note that the Kim family regime playbook is actually quite limited. While we might see some variations in tactics and tactical actions we should never be surprised by the regime's strategy and intent.
I concur with this statement: "Specialists argue that North Korea's propensity to revert to provocations is so deeply embedded that it is part of the country's DNA."
However, this does not mean Kim might conduct a provocation immediately - either before or after the inauguration (though eventually he will revert to them because it is in the regime's nature). He may be receiving wise counsel from China. He may begin its own "strategic patience" to see what a new administration may offer. And of course, he could be consumed with domestic issues (COVID, humanitarian disasters, a crushed economy, potential unrest, etc). Sanctions relief would likely be helpful. However, given the complex conditions and Kim's long history of failed policy decisions and priorities, sanctions relief will not be enough to dig the regime out of the domestic hole it has dug for itself.
2. Joe Biden seeks a reset in US-South Korea relations amid North Korea challenges
DW · by Deutsche Welle
Calling it a reset but what is important is there will be no successful outcome on the Korean peninsula without the foundation of a strong ROK/US alliance.
3. North Korea waging propaganda-heavy, 80-day labor campaign
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · November 13, 2020
Propaganda is the regime's single most important "tool" for managing domestic stability. There is a propaganda response for every regime failure and for every problem the north Korea faces. The irony. is if the regime put all this effort into solving problems and making the right poi;icy decisions the people would be better off. But it is obvious the regime is only concerned with controlling the population and not ensuring their welfare.
Our friend Kim Kwang-jin explains it: "I'd say North Korea is doing more 'battles' under Kim Jong Un," said analyst Kim Kwang-jin at the South Korean state-run Institute for National Security Strategy. "Kim Jong Un inherited an economy that was like an empty can and as a young man he struggled to solidify his power. So he needs these 'battles.'"
And then there is this from Mer. Heo, also an escapee: "He sometimes felt frustrated at repeated mobilizations but avoided publicly complaining in fear of the consequences. "In North Korea, complaining about the government could get your family sent to a political prison camp," he said."
4. Two interesting new Twitter accounts (from north Korea)
northkoreatech.org · by Martyn Williams · November 13, 2020
Their tweets are in English, Korea, and Japanese. I think they are obviously being run by the Propaganda and Agitation Department. I am following all three accounts (including Uriminzokkiri) but so far they are unremarkable.
Here are some examples. The last one is interesting. I wonder who the target audiences are for these tweets.
한성일
@korea_songil
Nov 12
The 80-day campaign register book is being filled with brilliant feats of labour with every tick of the clock. Everyone all across the country is registering every page with their patriotic souls.
한성일
@korea_songil
Nov 11
280-odd times done in over 150 sites... This figure is the number of performances staged by the central art troupes and other art propaganda squads of the DPRK on the vibrant fields of co-operative farms from the first day of 80-day campaign till now.
김명일
@korea_myongil
Nov 12
Kimchi preparing season has arrived. Korean nation's favourite dish - kimchi has been acknowledged as one of world's most welcomed health food. Healthy and tasty kimchi... the name alone makes my mouth water.
김명일
@korea_myongil
Nov 12
Recently Anti-Smoking Law has been adopted. Smoking is both harmful to health and environment. I am not much of a chain smoker but I pretty enjoy smoking. No matter how tough it might be I am determined to quit smoking for the benefit of myself and cleaner environment.
5. Biden and North Korea
The Korea Times · November 12, 2020
I had not heard any rumors of Ambassador Hill having a role in the Biden administration.
6. South Koreans Rarely Think About North Korea - and Why It Matters
HTTPS://WWW.38NORTH.ORG/2020/11/TRICHMEINHORN111320/ - by Thomas Rich and Madelynn Einhorn – 13 November 2020
I do not have any knowledge of polling procedures. But I question the questions. Why is the parameter in the past week added to the questions: "How many times have you thought about North Korea in the past week?"
As many know Koreans have been lulled into a sense of security for the past 67 years because the resumption of hostilities has been successfully deterred. I would be surprised to hear that large numbers of Koreans thought about north Korea except during times of heighten ed tensions or when something like the brutal murder of a Korean civil servant occurs.
I think on questions of unification, poll results (in general, not necessarily this one) may lead to unfortunate policy decisions. I hear from people all the time debunking the idea of Korean unification saying the people do not want it. That may seem to be the results of polling over the years and I have no doubt many people feel that way. However, the conditions on the peninsula may dictate that there is no other alternative if the people want security and prosperity. Yes, the people are afraid of the costs and uncertainty. But that is all the more reason to properly plan and prepare for it.
So I would take these polls with a grain of salt. That said the ramifications outlined below are very important and must be thoroughly assessed and understood.
7. Seoul seeks breakthrough in ties with Tokyo
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi – 13 November 2020
Calming tensions and threats would be a good step. I think a breakthrough would be a long way off. But such a breakthrough can only occur if Moon and Suga pledge to make national security and national prosperity the priorities while managing the historical issues. They both need to commit to standing up to the political factions in their country who seek to undermine relations due to historical issues.
8. Fourth Korean-American wins U.S. House election
en.yna.co.kr · by 황장진 · November 14, 2020
As I have noted, Koreans are proud of the Korean-Americans who have been elected. Now there are two Republicans and two Democrats.
9. President-Elect Biden and South Korean President Moon Reaffirm U.S.-ROK Alliance in Return to Normalcy
rfa.org – 13 November 2020
"Normalcy?" What is the normal alliance relationship? The hallmark of our ROK/US alliance is that there has always been friction and differences and that we have always worked through them. While some issues are likely to be resolved with the new administration there will continue to be issues and points of friction. We might solve the SMA stalemate relatively quickly but the OPCON transition process friction will continue. But the most challenging point of friction will be the alignment of assumptions about north Korea. It is imperative that Biden and Moon have their national security professionals re-evaluate the assumptions and come to a sufficient alignment of assumptions. This is key to developing a combined alliance policy and strategy toward north Korea. We must understand Kim's strategy is based on subversion, coercion/extortion (blackmail diplomacy) and use of force to dominate the peninsula and unify it under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State to ensure the survival of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime.
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
We will achieve "normalcy" when we embrace this: Deterrence, defense, denuclearization, the Korea questions (unification), using a superior form of political warfare based on a rock-solid ROK/US alliance and realistic assumptions of the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.
10. What's Kim planning? North Korea silent for WEEKS - fears grow of explosive plot for Biden
Express · by Rachel Russell · November 13, 2020
Kim likes to keep things interesting and keep us guessing both about his health and his future plans. Perhaps he is sequestered with his national security team conducting a policy and strategy review toward the US.
11. China is Already Preparing for the Next Korean War
The National Interest · by Lyle J. Goldstein · November 13, 2020
This is why it is US national interest to deter war on the Korean peninsula. Not only because of the terrible tragedy that will occur with so much civilian and military blood spilled but what happens on the Korean peninsula will have global effects. Deterrence and defense must be the first priority of the alliance.
And yes, wise words here (some of us must think about this): "As the wise Hugh White has written, one must sometimes fully envision a tragedy in order to avoid it, so that it turns out to be vitally important to "think the unthinkable."
12. Trump will leave office foiled by the North Korea nuclear problem. Will Biden fare better?
Los Angeles Times · by Victoria Kim · November 14, 2020
We can say every president has "failed" and it is likely Biden will as well if denuclearization of the north is the description of success. But the reasons for failure are not the policies and strategies of our presidents. It is the very existence of the Kim family regime and that the regime will under no circumstances actually allow denuclearization of the north. The regime conducts its form of political warfare with juche characteristics and its long con that is based on getting sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. The problem is not our presidents, past, present, or future. The problem is Kim Jong-un.
But there are two areas where President Trump has made important contributions. He broke the taboo of a US leader meeting with the leader of a rogue nation. This may give future presidents flexibility and it will have inculcated future presidents to criticism. But the most important thing President Trump has done is that he has not lifted sanctions and ensured the ROK and the US kept sanctions in place. Yes, we can criticize our insufficient effort in some areas of enforcement and the fact that China and Russia have been helping the north evade sanctions. However, it is the fact that sanctions remain in place that undermine Kim's legitimacy since he raised expectations among his elite and military leaders that he would be able to play Trump and Moon and get sanctions relief while keeping his nuclear weapons. This has put Kim under intense internal pressure. According to some escapees this is the biggest failure by any of the Three Kim's (the three from the north not the famous three Kim's from the South).
Success can only come when the "Korea question" is resolved.
13. Moon pledges $10 million to support developing nations with COVID-19 vaccine
donga.com – 14 November 2020
Apologies for my continued footstomp. South Korea is the only nation to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.
14. Air taxis set to soar over Seoul's skies
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · November 13, 2020
More Korean innovation. Fascinating. Airspace control may be a challenge.
"There is no rule on how to write. Sometimes it comes easily and perfectly; sometimes it's like drilling rock and then blasting it out with charges."
- Hemingway
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it."
- Evelyn Beatrice Hall in The Friends of Voltaire (1906)
"Never be afraid to raise your voice for honesty and truth and compassion against injustice and lying and greed. If people all over the world...would do this, it would change the earth."
- William Faulkner