News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Acting SecDef, service secretaries exposed to COVID-19 after top civilian tests positive

2. Statement by chief pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Rath Hoffman on Lithuanian defence minister visit and subsequent COVID diagnoses

3. As spotlight fades, what next for special operators?

4. What Acting SecDef Miller’s special ops shift means

5. China says Five Eyes alliance will be 'poked and blinded' over Hong Kong stance

6. The raid: the failed Son Tay prison rescue mission

7. Missile interceptor could be a game-changer for national defense

8. Commentary: the 3 nuclear threats facing President-elect Biden

9. New Pentagon chief racing to make changes before Trump's exit

10. Put societal resilience at the center of defense planning

11. No, it’s not surprising that Abu Muhammad al-Masri was living in Iran

12. The Chinese Communist Party operates as a “foreign terrorist organization” per 8 U.S.C. § 1189

13. Why do Chinese liberals embrace American conservatives?

14. China’s missed opportunity: how Xi Jinping blew it

15. A better way to fight the forever war

16. What it’s like to live with the guilt of murdered civilians

17. SFAB fends off an invasion in exercise ahead of Indo-Pacific missions

18. Strengthening America’s competitive advantage: a security sector assistance case study

19. Long-Term behavioral change in a knife fight: the future of psychological operations

 

1. Acting SecDef, service secretaries exposed to COVID-19 after top civilian tests positive

Defense News · Aaron Mehta · November 19, 2020

Uh oh.

 

2. Statement by chief pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Rath Hoffman on Lithuanian defence minister visit and subsequent COVID diagnoses

US Department of Defense · November 19, 2020

 

3. As spotlight fades, what next for special operators?

Defense One · Kevin Baron · November 19, 2020

Two points.

First, The action taken by A/SECDEF MIller is designed to accomplish three things. It is the first step to meet Congressional intent of the 2017 NDAA Section 922, which has languished under the past two SECDEFs.  Second, it is designed to improve civilian oversight of and advocacy for SOF with service-like and service-level authority.  Third, it puts the department on the path to solve the issues of manning, organizations, and reporting for civilian SOF oversight. 

The biggest point of friction in this may be who is the "billpayer" for the ASD SO/LIC to provide it with the proper manpower to execute the functions of Congressional Intent. Should the personnel come from DOD, from new authorizations, or should personnel billets be reallocated from USSOCOM? And then, what is the proper division of labor for service-like and service-level functions? USSOCOM, as a hybrid combat command with service like responsibilities (MFP-11 funding, R&D authorities, etc.), has served SOF and the nation well. But it is recognized by Congress that this is not the optimal situation.  Congress directed ASD SO/LIC be inserted into the ADCON chain of command (POTUS, SECDEF, ASD SO/LIC, and USSOCOM), but ASD SO/LIC requires direct reporting to the SECDEF (not through the USD(P)) and it needs the requisite personnel to perform service functions. These issues have not been resolved for the past three years as the bureaucracy has effectively stonewalled the necessary changes.  This action is intended to drive change and reach solutions to meet Congressional intent.

Here is an example of one of many issues. When the National Defense Strategy was written, USSOCOM asked for a seat at the table. It was denied, because it was considered a Combatant Command and if it SOCOM was allowed to participate, then all the Combatant Commands would demand a seat at the table. SOCOM was told the Services would look out for the equalities of "their” service's SOF. We know how that worked out in the past.  This is one of the negative examples of the nature of the 'hybrid" command. USSOCOM ASD SO/LIC also did not have an equal seat at the table with the services. Again, this action is intended to provide SOF with the requisite level of support and advocacy and allow it a seat at the table in DOD. Of course, ASD SO/LIC did have the subsequent lead role in drafting the IW annex to the NDS. But it is now 2020 and the IW annex was published some 2 and a half years after the NDS. Why was it not done simultaneously?

Second, having the spotlight fade for SOF is not a bad thing. But that does not mean SOF is in any way becoming irrelevant or not important. It is better able to embody the "SOF trinities"  in support of the National Defense and National Security Securities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the comparative advantages of SOF (influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations). These are critical missions and capabilities necessary for effective competition in the gray zone of great power competition. SOF does not need (or want) to be in the limelight to conduct special operations. So, let the spotlight fade and let SOF do its job to support the NDS and NSS in the best way it can.

 

4. What acting SecDef Miller’s special ops shift means

Breaking Defense · Paul McLeary · November 18, 2020

Again, it means meeting Congressional intent and improving civilian oversight of and advocacy for SOF.  This is the natural evolution from 1987 and the Nunn-Cohen amendment to Goldwater-Nichols to raise SOF to the correct level within the Department. The hybrid nature of USSOCOM has served well, but it is time to move to the next level.

 

5. China says Five Eyes alliance will be 'poked and blinded' over Hong Kong stance

Guardian · AP · November 19, 2020

China doth protest too much.

 

6. The raid: the failed Son Tay prison rescue mission

War History Online · Craig Bowman · January 31, 2016

The 50th Anniversary of the Son Tay Raid, Operation Ivory Coast is on November 21st (so it was the 20th in the US). The operation was a "success."  What we failed to know was our POWs had been moved.  I recall the stories of the raiders believing they had failed. But in later years when the raiders and former prisoners met the prisoners said the mission was not a failure but it both gave them hope and improved their treatment. They were extremely grateful to the raiders for trying and for giving them hope that they would not be left behind.

 

7. Missile interceptor could be a game-changer for national defense

Daily Signal · Patty-Jane Geller · November 19, 2020

 

8. Commentary: the 3 nuclear threats facing President-elect Biden

Chicago Tribune · Ivo Daalder · November 19, 2020

 

9. New Pentagon chief racing to make changes before Trump’s exit

Politico · Laura Seligman · November 18, 2020

I hope Biden's special operations expert advisors will advise him that the ASD SO/LIC action should be sustained. Perhaps the issue will not rise to Biden's level. The question may be will Michelle Flournoy, the presumptive future SECDEF, support the action. I hope she gets good advice on this issue. Of course, she is a former USD(P) under which ASD SO/LIC fell, so I am sure she has the knowledge, expertise, and probably a position already developed on this issue. It will not be about simply sustaining this decision but continuing the progress necessary for effective employment of SOF.

Meet congressional intent, improve civilian oversight and advocacy of SOF, continue the evolution of SOF to best support the NDS and NSS.

 

10. Put societal resilience at the center of defense planning

Defense One · Elisabeth Braw · November 19, 2020

But who is responsible for societal resistance? Certainly not the military.

 

11. No, it’s not surprising that Abu Muhammad al-Masri was living in Iran

FDD · Thomas Joscelyn · November 19, 2020

 

12. The Chinese Communist Party operates as a “foreign terrorist organization” per 8 U.S.C. § 1189

Journal of Political Risk · Dr. Terri Marsh & Dr. Teng Biao · November 2020

Interesting argument with a lot of information to support it.

 

13. Why do Chinese liberals embrace American conservatives?

New York Times · Ian Johnson · November 18, 2020

Perhaps because of the perception that real conservatives actually support liberal democracy rather than progressive ideas?

 

14. China’s missed opportunity: how Xi Jinping blew it

Atlantic · Michael Schuman · November 19, 2020

 

15. A better way to fight the forever war

Defense One · Capt. Matt Fiorelli · November 18, 2020

 

16. What it’s like to live with the guilt of murdered civilians

War Horse · Mike McGuiness · November 18, 2020

The horrors of war. Made worse when there is not accountability and justice.

 

17. SFAB fends off an invasion in exercise ahead of Indo-Pacific missions

Army Times · Kyle Rempfer · November 19, 2020

 

18. Strengthening America’s competitive advantage: a security sector assistance case study

Modern War Institute · Matthew Kuhlman · November 20, 2020

 

19. Long-term behavioral change in a knife fight: the future of psychological operations

Small Wars Journal · by Wade Pommer · November 19, 2020

Some big ideas that should stimulate big discussion about a critical military capability that must achieve tactical and strategic effects. This is generating a lot of emotional discussion about controversial ideas.

 

"In most campaigns the dislocation of the enemy's psychological   and physical balance has been the vital prelude to a successful attempt at his overthrow."

- Captain Sir Basil H. Liddell Hart, 1944

"Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal."

- General of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Psychological forces exert a decisive influence on the elements involved in war."

- Carl von Clausewitz

"Psychological Warfare has always rested as an uneasy activity in democracies, even   in wartime. It is partly to do with the suspicion that using the mind to influence the   mind is somehow unacceptable. But is it more unacceptable to shoot someone's brains out rather than to persuade that brain to drop down their weapon and live?"

- Dr. Phillip M. Taylor, Author of "Munitions of the Mind", Manchester   University

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. China 'enabling' N. Korea's nuke development

2. A missile defense triumph

3. US sidelined as China, Korea and Japan unite

4. Donald Trump’s North Korea gambit: what worked, what didn’t, and what’s next

5. Joe Biden should reach out to China for help on North Korea

6. Scrapping NK nukes should not be prerequisite for peacebuilding: Yun

7. Reinforcing U.S. alliance will be on Biden's everyday agenda through cabinet: McDonough

8. Treasury sanctions entities involved in exporting workers from North Korea

9. U.S. needs to be more strategic but less patient in dealing with N. Korea; lawmaker

10. China’s ties with America could be tested by North Korea

11. From a crab shack to Hyundai, China's wrath over a U.S. missile defense system weighs on South Korea

12.  South Korea’s risky quest to build nuclear-powered attack submarines

13. South Korea missing from U.N. North Korea rights resolution

14. Why Joe Biden might be able to negotiate With North Korea

15. What does South Korea think about a Joe Biden administration?

16. Korea expert discusses advancements in North Korea's nuclear missile program

17. Landmine on Chinese border kills North Korean special forces officer

18. The "terrible circumstances" of N. Korea's quarantine facilities

19. North Korea set to offer world glimpse of its prowess - analysis

20. Lockdown in Manpo lifted, but some 100 people have died of coronavirus-like symptoms

 

1. China 'enabling' N. Korea's nuke development

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-joong · November 20, 2020

It is good we are calling out China for its complicity (in nuclear weapons development and in proliferation activities and in sanctions evasion).  This article is referring to the State Department report here (the "Kennan-like" China report).

For all those calling for us to engage China to help solve the North Korean nuclear problem, perhaps they should reconsider based on Chinese actions.

 

2. A missile defense triumph

Wall Street Journal · Editorial Board · November 19, 2020

Missile defense is hard. This is a positive step forward.

 

3. US sidelined as China, Korea and Japan unite

Asia Times · William Pesek · November 20, 2020

This all goes back to our decision to withdraw from the TPP. What if we hadn't made such a huge strategic error?

 

4. Donald Trump’s North Korea gambit: what worked, what didn’t, and what’s next

National Interest · Katie Stallard · November 19, 2020

There is no silver bullet to the North Korea problem. This is why we need to focus on the long-term solution to the security and prosperity challenges on the Korean peninsula. That is, we need to focus on resolving the Korean question, the unnatural division of the peninsula. Solve that and the nuclear issues and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will be fixed. The question to ask is not what worked and what did not, but whether our action advanced our interests and moved us closer to the acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests?

The way ahead is deterrence, defense, denuclearization and solving the Korea question (unification) with the understanding that denuclearization of the North will only happen when we resolve the Korea question.

 

5. Joe Biden should reach out to China for help on North Korea

National Interest · Doug Bandow · November 19, 2020

Everyone who thinks China will help solve a ROK and US national security problem, please raise your hands. What indications are there that China will be willing to assist on the North Korea issue?

 

6. Scrapping NK nukes should not be prerequisite for peacebuilding: Yun

Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · November 19, 2020

I wonder if Ambassador Yun is being considered for the US Ambassador to the ROK. His comments below align somewhat with President Moon's (tandem peace building and denuclearization), though I do not believe he supports the appeasement desires of some of the extreme Korean progressives advising Moon.

I would push back though and say a policy that includes pressure has not "failed." Pressure is a necessary component of policy and strategy. I also think we look at the pressure of sanctions incorrectly. If we want to make concessions in the hopes of drawing the regime to negotiate, what sanctions do we want to lift as concessions? And, more correctly, we should ask what illicit and horrendous behavior do we want to condone by the regime when we lift sanctions? Sanctions are in place because of the policy decisions made by Kim Jong-Un. He has the power to lift sanctions by complying with the requirements of sanctions.

But the bottom line is we have to conduct a superior form of political warfare to deal with Kim Jong-Un.

 

7. Reinforcing U.S. alliance will be on Biden’s everyday agenda through cabinet: McDonough

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · November 20, 2020

There can be no success for either the ROK or the US without the foundation of a strong or rock solid, ROK/US alliance.

I actually think that Biden is going to put together a strong Korea team to manage Korean issues on a daily basis that will allow him to keep Korea as a priority while he deals with the dual domestic priorities of protecting the economy and defeating COVID. He would do well to consider maintaining some of the current Korea hands that are already in the government, particularly in State, (e.g., Biegun, Knapper, Wong, Lambert). But, of course, there will be partisan issues about "holdovers," which unfortunately have taken on such a negative connotation.

 

8. Treasury sanctions entities involved in exporting workers from North Korea

US Department of the Treasury · November 19, 2020

An important step forward.

 

9. U.S. needs to be more strategic but less patient in dealing with N. Korea; lawmaker

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · November 20, 2020

Reminds of me of "tastes great, less filling."

 

10. China’s ties with America could be tested by North Korea

Economist · November 19, 2020

A warning.  Kim will create a crisis.

 

11. From a crab shack to Hyundai, China's wrath over a U.S. missile defense system weighs on South Korea

LA Times · Victoria Kim · November 19, 2020

China has been and will continue to conduct economic warfare against South Korea.

 

12. South Korea’s risky quest to build nuclear-powered attack submarines

Bulletin · Gayle Spinazze · November 18, 2020

South Korea does not need nuclear powered submarines for defense against North Korea. With all due respect, this is a vanity project.

 

13. South Korea missing from U.N. North Korea rights resolution

UPI · Elizabeth Shim · November 19, 2020

Disappointing. We cannot neglect human rights for the 25 million Korean people living in North Korea.

 

14. Why Joe Biden might be able to negotiate with North Korea

National Interest · Mitchell Lerner · November 17, 2020

Wishful thinking? I agree that a calm and reasonable response to North Korean provocation is critically important. But the implied "concession giving" and a gesture of reconciliation smells like a path to appeasement.

 

15. What does South Korea think about a Joe Biden administration?

National Interest · Daniel R. DePetris · November 18, 2020

Biden is not Obama and the conditions today are not the same as 2009-2017.

Then there is this conclusion. I do not think it is fair to say the US did not allow South Korea to have its own North Korean policy. What I think is the problem with the Moon administration's policy is it is built on the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-Un shares his vision of peace and reconciliation. 

 

16. Korea expert discusses advancements in North Korea's nuclear missile program

CBS News · November 18, 2020

Michael Morell interviews Dr. Sue Mi Terry.

 

17. Landmine on Chinese border kills North Korean special forces officer

Radio Free Asia · Sewon Kim, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · November 17, 2020

 

18. The "terrible circumstances" of N. Korea's quarantine facilities

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 19, 2020

Horrific conditions and officials know they are responsible and now perhaps seem to fear future accountability.

 

19. North Korea set to offer world glimpse of its prowess - analysis

Eurasia Review · Dr. Theodore Karasik · November 19, 2020

Be prepared.

 

20. Lockdown in Manpo lifted, but some 100 people have died of coronavirus-like symptoms

Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · November 18, 2020

If this is accurate, the conditions are probably far worse. And I worry about OCVID infiltrating the North Korean People's Army and how that will influence regime decision making.

 

"In most campaigns the dislocation of the enemy's psychological   and physical balance has been the vital prelude to a successful attempt at his overthrow."

- Captain Sir Basil H. Liddell Hart, 1944

"Without a doubt, psychological warfare has proven its right to a place of dignity in our military arsenal."

- General of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower

"Psychological forces exert a decisive influence on the elements involved in war."

- Carl von Clausewitz

"Psychological Warfare has always rested as an uneasy activity in democracies, even   in wartime. It is partly to do with the suspicion that using the mind to influence the   mind is somehow unacceptable. But is it more unacceptable to shoot someone's brains out rather than to persuade that brain to drop down their weapon and live?"

- Dr. Phillip M. Taylor, Author of "Munitions of the Mind", Manchester   University Press, 1995

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Acting Defense Secretary Visits Fort Bragg - Makes a Historic Advance for Special Operations

2. Pentagon shakeup means more civilian oversight for special operations

3. Identifying Organizations Engaged in Anti-Semitic BDS Activities - United States Department of State

4. Beyond Disinformation: Seeing Russia Holistically

5. Pentagon Risks 'Paralyzing Ourselves' as Tech Priorities Keep Shifting

6. USA Rare Earth: Round Top Mountain Project, Texas

7. US Hero Of Bosnia War Named To The Pentagon

8. Ex-Green Beret Admits He Betrayed U.S. While Spying for Russia

9. Securing the China Dream: The PLA's Role in a Time of Reform and Change

10. Army Secretary admits the service is failing to protect soldiers from sexual assault and harassment

11. The End of the Pandemic Is Now in Sight

12. Joint Statement on Hong Kong - United States Department of State (US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK)

13. 5G and compromised sovereignty

14. Should America Still Police the World?

15. US military reports record 1,300 coronavirus cases in one day

16. Balancing China at the United Nations

17. The Department of Defense Needs to Relearn the (Almost) Lost Art of Net Assessment

18. Al-Qaida 'On the Ropes' After 2 Decades of War

19. The story of the first special-ops mission deep inside Afghanistan just weeks after 9/11, from troops who were there

 

1. Acting Defense Secretary Visits Fort Bragg - Makes a Historic Advance for Special Operations

defense.gov

Acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller marks another milestone in SOF history with action to implement Congress' intent in the 2017 NDAA Section 922 to improve civilian oversight and place ASD SO/LIC in the ADCON chain of command giving it service like oversight and improve advocacy for SOF by making the ASD SO/LIC report directly to the SECDEF and no longer under the purview of the USD(P). He could not have chosen a better location than on SOF hallowed ground at Fort Bragg. Chris gave a great speech (as always) and explains the importance of this action that had languished in the Pentagon for the past two SECDEFs. 

The 13 minute video can be accessed HERE.   

It was an honor to participate in the event.  I have been on relaxed grooming standards since March.

Transcript is at the link.

 

2. Pentagon shakeup means more civilian oversight for special operations

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers, Howard Altman · November 18, 2020

 

3. Identifying Organizations Engaged in Anti-Semitic BDS Activities - United States Department of State

state.gov · by Michael R. Pompeo, Secretary of State · November 19, 2020

 

4. Beyond Disinformation: Seeing Russia Holistically

realcleardefense.com · by Giselle Donnelly

Good advice here:  "The consequence of this schizophrenia is that in focusing on what our adversaries are doing, we lose sight of the outcome we want and what we should be doing. Threats should be considered in light of goals, not vice versa. We are on a dangerous path involving China and Russia. To neglect one while tending to the other would have dire consequences for U.S. global leadership and the alliances that help us secure peace, liberty and prosperity."

 

5. Pentagon Risks 'Paralyzing Ourselves' as Tech Priorities Keep Shifting

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

A lot to unpack here from Rep. Thornberry but this excerpt stands out for me: "Our adversaries do not have ethical concerns, but we can paralyze ourselves by misinformation or lack of understanding when it comes to artificial intelligence, robotics, human performance enhancement, all sorts of issues," he said. "I believe it's important to have a little inoculation with hearings, think tank seminars, papers, about these technologies and what they mean or don't mean to help prevent this sort of paralysis in the future."

We will miss the Congressman.

 

6. USA Rare Earth: Round Top Mountain Project, Texas

http://usarareearth.com/

Someone flagged this for based on the previous rare earth element articles I have distributed. 

 

7. US Hero Of Bosnia War Named To The Pentagon

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

 

8. Ex-Green Beret Admits He Betrayed U.S. While Spying for Russia

The New York Times · by Adam Goldman · November 18, 2020

Bringing shame on the regiment and the US military.  But there were a lot of failures to allow him to do this.

 

9. Securing the China Dream: The PLA's Role in a Time of Reform and Change

nbr.org · November 14, 2020

The 150 page report can be downloaded here:

Securing the China Dream: The PLA's Role in a Time of Reform and Change | The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)

 

10. Army Secretary admits the service is failing to protect soldiers from sexual assault and harassment

taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky

This is so troubling.  But it is important that he admit this.

 

11. The End of the Pandemic Is Now in Sight

The Atlantic · by Sarah Zhang · November 18, 2020

A positive article for a change.

 

12. Joint Statement on Hong Kong - United States Department of State (US, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the UK)

state.gov · November 18, 2020

 

13. 5G and compromised sovereignty

opinion.inquirer.net · by Gamaliel Pascual · November 18, 2020

A view from the Philippines.

Conclusion:

“In the face of rapidly changing technology, will the balance of power post-World War II remain? A cyberattack can completely cripple a country's entire financial system. A small but technologically advanced country, even without a large military, can now aspire to influence in ways previously reserved for superpowers. Entire spheres of influence can now be dismantled as countries and entire regions are frozen out of their own systems.

The victors of 1945 have much to discuss.”

 

14. Should America Still Police the World?

The New Yorker · by Daniel Immerwahr · November 18, 2020

Another depressing conclusion: "Such a world view leads easily to the conclusion that Something Must Be Done. Bush started Middle Eastern wars in the name of freedom-wars that, in different forms, Obama and Trump continued. The titles of the military missions read like tombstones in a graveyard of liberal ambitions: Operation Iraqi Freedom, Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Freedom's Sentinel, Operation New Dawn. We're now at Operation Inherent Resolve, the ongoing mission to extirpate the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. It's the first one whose name makes no reference to freedom or transformation, yet it would be optimistic to interpret this as a backing down. Recent years have shown Washington's military commitments to be wedged tightly in place. This past September, on the same day that Trump declared "we are out of Syria" other than to guard its oil fields, the Pentagon announced that it was increasing troop levels by twenty per cent."

 

15. US military reports record 1,300 coronavirus cases in one day

The Hill · by John Bowden · November 18, 2020

 

16. Balancing China at the United Nations

warontherocks.com · by Henrik B. L. Larsen · November 19, 2020

We should not cede the UN competition battlespace to China.

 

17. The Department of Defense Needs to Relearn the (Almost) Lost Art of Net Assessment

thestrategybridge.org· by Bryan Clark, Dan Patt, and Timothy A. Walton · November 19, 2020

Conclusion: "The U.S. national security establishment needs to reacquaint itself with the art and science of net assessment. Without the creativity and prioritization it enables, the U.S. position in great power competitions will erode despite historically high federal spending. We have to start thinking."

 

18. Al-Qaida 'On the Ropes' After 2 Decades of War

voanews.com · by Jeff Seldin · November 17, 2020

 

19. The story of the first special-ops mission deep inside Afghanistan just weeks after 9/11, from troops who were there

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

----------------

 

Heart is that by which the general masters.  Now order and confusion, bravery and cowardice, are qualities dominated by the heart.  Therefore the expert at controlling the enemy frustrates him and then moves against him.  He aggravates him to confuse him and harasses him to make him fearful.  He thus robs the enemy of his heart and his ability to plan.  

- Chang Yu, 1000

 

"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes which can be made in a very narrow field." 

- Niels Bohr

 

Once a wrong idea about reality has been formed, it becomes more difficult to discover the truth.

-Unknown

 

"Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups."

-Unknown

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

7. UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

9.   Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

 

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

The Korea Times · November 16, 2020

This is a serious problem.  If our combat aviation brigade cannot conduct sufficient training to sustain readiness and maintain crew qualifications it would be the height of irresponsibility to allow an untrained force to remain in harm's way.  This is not a threat to withdraw; it is simply a fact that if we cannot train we cannot leave the force in place.

 

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 19, 2020

I would err on the side they have developed the capability.  As has been pointed out to me by experts the idea that when the north tested a re-entry vehicle as it was observed to have "burned up" on re-entry all objectives reentering the earth's atmosphere are observed as being on fire and heating up to extremely high temperatures.  What we do not know is if the vehicle they tested had adequate heat shielding to survive re-entry. 

 

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

thebulletin.org · by Duyeon Kim · November 18, 2020

The $64,000 question.  Duyeon Kim covers the "North Korea’s next provocation" and "The future of diplomatic negotiations" while also examining ROK/US alliance issues.

 

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

Yes, the regime has to defend against the coronavirus but it is using that to justify the re-imposition of extreme population and resources control measures to further oppress and control the Korean people in the north. External help would undermine those efforts

 

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

cnas.org· by Jason Bartlett

A very useful report.  We must deal with north Korea's "all purpose sword."

Conclusion: "North Korea will continue to exploit the vulnerabilities in U.S. and U.N. legal and financial institutions through any means possible. The United States should lead fellow responsible nations in creating safeguards against illicit cyber activity to match the sophistication of current cyber threats. North Korea’s expanding cyber capabilities are a direct threat to international security and the global financial system. Beyond strengthening cybersecurity protocols and information sharing between governments and financial institutions, the United States government can coordinate with its allies to conduct in-depth research on the whereabouts of overseas North Korean cyber agents to track, identify, and prevent further dispatch units."

 

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

Hani · by Lee Je-hun· November 05, 2020

And how do we think Kim Jong-un will view these "three small steps?"  What is in it for him?  Why would these three small steps lead to a thaw?  We would be better served assessing the nature and strategy of the Kim family regime and developing policy and strategy based on realistic assumptions about (and knowledge of ) the regime.

Excerpt: The “three small steps” that Lee officially proposed to the North are restoring inter-Korean channels of communication, opening up Panmunjom to visits by South and North Koreans, and hosting divided family reunions at Panmunjom.

 

7.UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

The UN carrying the human rights water for the Korean peninsula? 

 

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

The Korea Times · November 18, 2020

 

9. Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Astronomical investments?  Paradoxically, progressive governments in Seoul seem to spend more on defense than conservative governments.

Excerpts: 

“Seoul's astronomical investments in its military follow four years of U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly questioning the necessity of the U.S. military deployment on the Korean Peninsula, and seeking to hike Seoul's defense contributions for the upkeep of U.S. forces by an unprecedented margin.

Though U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has sought to counter Trump's so-called "America First" vision by shoring up ties with allies, Trump's term in office has led to concern in Seoul about the uncertainty of the U.S. military's commitment to its security.

Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry.”

 

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · November 18, 2020

Only IF kim Jong-un wants one.

 

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

I think withdrawing from TPP was a major strategic mistake for the US but I fail to see how it would have significantly  contributed to the denuclearization of north Korea.

 

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

No US president should ever meet with the Kim family regime until working level negotiations produce an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. That said, I do not think Kim Jong-un will conduct a meeting with a US leader unless it comes with a guarantee of sanctions relief.

 

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

What I think he is describing is statesmanship.  There is no silver bullet for dealing with north Korea.  It is not either/or.  It is about balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means based on sound assumptions about the regime.  And both the ROK and US must align their assumptions for an effective alliance strategy for dealing with north Korea in its entirety and not just on the nuclear issue.

 

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

We neglect human rights at our peril and  of course to the peril of the Korean people living in the north.

But form the north - admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations: "There exist no human rights violations in North Korea that are described in the resolution," Kim Song, the chief of the North Korean mission to the U.N., claiming such accusations are based on false information from what he called "human trash North Korean defectors" that he claimed have been "woven" by enemy states.

 

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · November 18, 2020

The buried lede: "Xing also said during a forum hosted by his embassy that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea first ahead of any other country once the coronavirus pandemic situation stabilizes."

 

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

The National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · November 17, 2020

More on the $64,000 question. How will the regime act or react?

A sobering conclusion: "On the surface, North Korea’s response to the Biden administration may look a lot like its tactics with Obama, with the possible addition of high-level summits. But the strategic challenges are rather different. Unlike his predecessors, presumptive President-elect Biden has inherited a nuclear North Korea. Formerly taboo to even mention this in conversations with the foreign policy establishment, it’s now considered a strategic reality that requires serious thought. And savvy North Korea knows it could most certainly use this to its advantage."

 

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

The National Interest · by Stein Tønnesson · November 17, 2020

Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater. 

Another sobering conclusion: "In this way, Biden may keep the United States in the Northeast Asian game, and maintain its alliance with South Korea. The alternative is to face a drawn-out crisis that may eventually be resolved on Northeast Asian terms, among China, North and South Korea, perhaps with some Russian involvement, but with little regard for U.S. or Japanese interests."

 

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · November 18, 2020

But, what are the themes and messages of the CPP, who are the target audiences and what do they hope to achieve in terms of influence those targets audiences?

Excerpt: "No one should doubt China’s resolution under fire. However, the United States proved its determination when it carried a global alliance against successive threatening powers. Both governments should avoid putting the other to the test. As Xi warned, “Once provoked, things will get ugly.” Which unfortunately is true for both sides."

 

--------------------

 

Heart is that by which the general masters.  Now order and confusion, bravery and cowardice, are qualities dominated by the heart.  Therefore the expert at controlling the enemy frustrates him and then moves against him.  He aggravates him to confuse him and harasses him to make him fearful.  He thus robs the enemy of his heart and his ability to plan.  

- Chang Yu, 1000

 

"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes which can be made in a very narrow field." 

- Niels Bohr

 

Once a wrong idea about reality has been formed, it becomes more difficult to discover the truth.


-Unknown

 

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.


-Unknown

 

 

 

 

 

 

Acting Secretary of Defense Chris Miller marks another milestone in SOF history with action to implement Congress' intent in the 2017 NDAA Section 922 to improve civilian oversight and place ASD SO/LIC in the ADCON chain of command giving it service like oversight and improve advocacy for SOF by making the ASD SO/LIC report directly to the SECDEF and no longer under the purview of the USD(P). He could not have chosen a better location than on SOF hallowed ground at Fort Bragg. Chris gave a great speech (as always) and explains the importance of this action that had languished in the Pentagon for the past two SECDEFs. 

The 13 minute video can be accessed HERE.   

The transcript of the event is HERE. 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds: An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster

2. China versus Democracy

3. DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Awards to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base

4. How to Save Kabul From Saigon's Fate

5. Learn By Losing: Give AI To OPFOR First

6. More than 200 systems infected by new Chinese APT 'FunnyDream'

7. Scoop: The State Department to release Kennan-style paper on China

8. Hate Crimes in U.S. Rose to Highest Level in More Than a Decade in 2019

9. Regime Realism and Chinese Grand Strategy  

10. Trump Fires Official Who Disputed Baseless Claims of Election Fraud

11. The 3 elements of Trump's foreign policy Biden should keep

12. How "Mercenaries at Sea" Could Help the U.S. Navy Defeat Russia and China

13. Pentagon Plan Calls for Pulling All Troops from Somalia

14. Transforming The U.S. Military For The 21st Century

 

1. The Need to Compete on Multiple Battlegrounds: An Interview with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster

Small Wars Journal· November 17, 2020

 

2. China versus Democracy

National Review Online · by Michael Auslin · November 17, 2020

A handbook for democracies.

Excerpt:  "The great question facing the free world is how to deal with the PRC in this new era of competition. One answer is provided in a new "handbook" for democracies, published this week by the Halifax International Security Forum (HFX) to coincide with its annual conference. The handbook, entitled "China Vs. Democracy: The Greatest Game," is a primer on how the PRC threatens the open global society that is the source for most of its own wealth and power (full disclosure: I am the senior advisor for Asia at HFX, and was part of the team that produced the handbook). Divided into chapters that look at the CCP's oppression inside China, influence campaigns against democracies, the battle over global economic domination, the race for technological supremacy, and the military competition that may determine war or peace, the handbook is one of the first comprehensive attempts to chart the broad China challenge."

 

3. DOD Announces Rare Earth Element Awards to Strengthen Domestic Industrial Base

defense.gov

We need to fix the rare earth element challenge.  This would seem to be one area of great Power Competition.

Excerpt: 'MP Materials, who owns the largest rare earth element mining operation outside of China, has been awarded a DPA Title III technology investment agreement to establish domestic processing capabilities for light rare earth elements (LREE). LREEs are critical to numerous defense and commercial applications, including petroleum refining, glass additives, and magnets used in electric vehicle drivetrain motors and precision-guided munitions. Upon successful completion of this project, MP Materials will refine its current mixed rare earth concentrate production, which represents approximately 12 percent of global rare earth oxide content, into separated rare earth products at its site in Mountain Pass, California."

 

4. How to Save Kabul From Saigon's Fate

WSJ · by Bing West

Excerpts:

“In 1972 the U.S. signed a peace treaty that left thousands of North Vietnamese soldiers in South Vietnam. A few years later, North Vietnamese tanks rolled into Saigon as the world watched on TV. Respect for American resolve plummeted at home and abroad.”

“The Taliban share Islamist roots with terrorists who pursue murder on a global scale. A total U.S. withdrawal would lead to a resurgence of terror plots, no longer in danger of disruption. Instead, the U.S. should continue what it is doing: keep military presence low and lethality high, and tolerate a messy government in Kabul. With modest expense and low casualties, the benefits of withdrawal can't justify the costs.”

 

5. Learn By Losing: Give AI To OPFOR First

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

The subtitle says it all.

 

6. More than 200 systems infected by new Chinese APT 'FunnyDream'

ZDNet · by Catalin Cimpanu

Excerpt: "The malware infections are part of a widespread cyber-espionage campaign carried out by a group named FunnyDream, according to a new report published today by security firm Bitdefender."

 

7. Scoop: The State Department to release Kennan-style paper on China

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

Could be a potentially historical document. Or will it be dead on arrival?  Or will this document provide long term continuity and perhaps the basis for a new "NSC 68" that can transcend administrations?

The 74 page document can be downloaded here listing the 10 “key tasks”.

 

8. Hate Crimes in U.S. Rose to Highest Level in More Than a Decade in 2019

The New York Times · by Tim Arango · November 16, 2020

This data should make us all sad and ashamed.

 

9. Regime Realism and Chinese Grand Strategy, by Hal Brands, AEI November 2020

The 9-page document can be downloaded here.

 

10. Trump Fires Official Who Disputed Baseless Claims of Election Fraud

The New York Times · by David E. Sanger · November 18, 2020

Hmmm.... 

 

11. The 3 elements of Trump's foreign policy Biden should keep

Vox · by Alex Ward · November 17, 2020Good advice.

The 3:

Lesson 1: Don't be afraid to question foreign policy shibboleths

Lesson 2: Consider how foreign policy decisions will impact Americans at home

Lesson 3: Prioritize bringing American hostages home

 

12. How "Mercenaries at Sea" Could Help the U.S. Navy Defeat Russia and China

The National Interest · by Peter Suciu · November 17, 2020

Does history rhyme?

 

13. Pentagon Plan Calls for Pulling All Troops from Somalia

military.com · by John Vandiver · November 17, 2020

While everyone focuses on Afghanistan and Iraq, there is this...

 

14. Transforming The U.S. Military For The 21st Century

Forbes · by Daniel Araya · November 17, 2020

 

----------------

 

 

"Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none." 

- William Shakespeare 

 

"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."   

-Marcus Tullius Cicero (42B.C)

 

"This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife, but I'm afraid we can't do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle - you know who you're killing." 

- John Paul Vann

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Germany accuses Russia, China of stalling over North Korea fuel sanctions

2. Gov't Tightens Lockdown in Seoul

3. Biden keeps Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in check

4. Engaging North Korea Anew by Victor Cha

5. North Korea border closure continues amid global surge of COVID-19

6. Commentary: This country holds the key to unlocking the North Korea problem

7. N. Korea seen following social distancing measures at theaters

8. Readout for Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Miller's Phone Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Suh

9. Moon's problematic aide returns to public service

10. Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

11. Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Is Training Kamikaze Dolphins

12. Suh, Miller reaffirm efforts to strengthen Korea-US alliance

13. Alleged Creep Claims He Used Steaks and Ponies to Spy on North Korea

 

1. Germany accuses Russia, China of stalling over North Korea fuel sanctions

Reuters · by Michelle Nichols · November 17, 2020

China and Russia are enabling north Korean sanctions evasion and protecting the regime at the UN.  Glad to see Germany calling them out.

 

2. Gov't Tightens Lockdown in Seoul

english.chosun.com· November 18, 2020

 

3. Biden keeps Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership in check

donga.com· November 18, 2020

Just imagine if we had remained in TPP.

 

4. Engaging North Korea Anew by Victor Cha

Foreign Affairs · by Victor Cha · November 17, 2020

A political strategy will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy.  We need a superior form of political warfare.

A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with north Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.

However, we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime, and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK.US alliance interests.

We need to answer my 5 big questions:

1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?

2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

Lastly there can be no doubt the root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

5. North Korea border closure continues amid global surge of COVID-19

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim· November 17, 2020

Yes Kim is deathly afraid of a COVID-19 outbreak.  But he also is using COViD-19 to impose great controls on the population rein in the "freedoms" that have been developed ove the past two decades through balck market activities and the failure of the public distribution system as well as the availability of foreign currency and foreign goods.

 

6. Commentary: This country holds the key to unlocking the North Korea problem

channelnewsasia.com · by Jeffrey Robertson

Wow! It is interesting that someone would even ask this question.  Somehow I do not think there are many Koreans who would respond in the affirmative.

But I absolutely agree with the author's conclusion that we cannot neglect South Korea.  I would say that success on the Korean peninsula for both the South and the US can only come through a strong ROK/US alliance.

Excerpts:

“Should South Korea accede to China’s regional dominance?”

“The argument that South Korea should accede to China’s regional dominance sparks the hottest debate.”

 

7. N. Korea seen following social distancing measures at theaters

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · November 17, 2020

Perhaps they should not be going to theaters.

 

8. Readout for Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Miller's Phone Call With Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Suh

defense.gov· November 17, 2020

Oh to be a fly on the wall for this conversation. :-) 

 

9. Moon's problematic aide returns to public service

The Korea Times · By Kang Seung-woo · November 17, 2020

I guess rehabilitation happens in the South as well.

 

10. Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

WSJ · by Alastair Gale

Excerpt:

“Reflecting Australia’s close ties with Japan, Mr. Morrison was the first foreign leader to meet Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga in person since Mr. Suga took office in September.

The two released a joint statement that indirectly criticized China’s government on several issues and expressed “grave concerns over the situation in Hong Kong,” where Beijing this month forced the expulsion of pro-democracy lawmakers as part of its crackdown on dissent.

Japan, Australia Forge Closer Military Ties to Counter China

U.S. allies smooth way for more joint training and quick military support.”

 

11. Satellite Images Suggest North Korea Is Training Kamikaze Dolphins

Popular Mechanics · by Kyle Mizokami · November 17, 2020

 

12. Suh, Miller reaffirm efforts to strengthen Korea-US alliance

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 18, 2020

Note really any more details than was in the official statement.

 

13. Alleged Creep Claims He Used Steaks and Ponies to Spy on North Korea

The Daily Beast · by Adam Rawnsley · November 17, 2020

Bizarre.  There is no other word for this.

 

----------------

 

"Love all, trust a few, do wrong to none." 

- William Shakespeare 

 

"A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear."   

-Marcus Tullius Cicero (42B.C)

 

“This is a political war and it calls for discrimination in killing. The best weapon for killing would be a knife, but I'm afraid we can't do it that way. The worst is an airplane. The next worst is artillery. Barring a knife, the best is a rifle - you know who you're killing." 

- John Paul Vann

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Message to the Department - Acting Secretary Miller's Goals

2. Asia’s massive new trade deal is no big victory for Beijing

3. Kissinger warns Biden of U.S.-China catastrophe on scale of WWI

4. Malabar exercise that upsets China is a tectonic shift in power balance

5. Russian warships harassed American fishermen near Alaska, costing them $1 million in lost fishing catches

6. Five foreign policy “don’ts” for President Biden

7. Top Biden transition team member wrote widely criticized op-ed advocating First Amendment crackdown

8. What happened to the deepfake threat to the election?

9. US military anticipates Trump will issue order to plan for further troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq

10. COVID-19 is out of control. What can we do?

11. How the U.S. military buys location data from ordinary apps

12. The Chinese air force sure is buying a lot of bombers

13. WHO head ‘extremely concerned’ by increase in coronavirus cases

14. How Obama-era budget controls have hurt US military readiness against growing China, Russia, Iran threats

15. U.S. drawing up plans to withdraw troops from Iraq, Afghanistan

16. Now is not the time to shortchange national defense budget

17. U.S. Chamber statement on the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP)

18. Groupthink has left the left blind

19. Cutting U.S. defense attachés from embassies abroad is a bad idea

20. Rare-earth elements: a national security crisis

21. Analysis: Al Qaeda's deputy emir killed in Iran

22. Trump sought options for attacking Iran to stop its growing nuclear program

23. Strengthening the Indian-U.S. defense partnership

24. Solomon Islands government preparing to ban Facebook

25. Trump’s Afghan adios

 

1. Message to the Department - Acting Secretary Miller's Goals

US Department of Defense · November 16, 2020

 

2. Asia’s massive new trade deal is no big victory for Beijing

Wall Street Journal · Mike Bird · November 16, 2020

It sure seems like one. Perhaps TPP is better but we are not part of that agreement either.

 

3. Kissinger warns Biden of U.S.-China catastrophe on scale of WWI

Bloomberg · Peter Martin · November 16, 2020

An ominous warning from the elder statesman with an interesting proposal. I will be interested in hearing what the China experts say about this.

 

4. Malabar exercise that upsets China is a tectonic shift in power balance

Hindustan Times · Shishir Gupta · November 16, 2020

 

5. Russian warships harassed American fishermen near Alaska, costing them $1 million in lost fishing catches

Popular Mechanics · Kyle Mizokami · November 16, 2020

I have not seen any other reporting on this. Odd to see this in Popular Mechanics.

 

6. Five foreign policy “don’ts” for President Biden

Bulwark · Shay Khatiri · November 16, 2020

Korea does not make the "don't list."

 

7. Top Biden transition team member wrote widely criticized op-ed advocating First Amendment crackdown

Daily Wire · Ryan Saavedra · November 16, 2020

This gentleman could be as controversial as Michael Pack at USAGM.

 

8. What happened to the deepfake threat to the election?

Wired · Tom Simonite · November 16, 2020

The best (not so) "deep fake" of the election period was of Kim (and Putin) lecturing us on democracy.

But this is quite the analysis and one I did not expect to read. But after reading it, I think it has merit:

 

9. US military anticipates Trump will issue order to plan for further troop withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq

CNN · Barbara Starr · November 16, 2020

It should be an order rather than a tweet.

 

10. COVID-19 is out of control. What can we do?

Defense One · Thomas R. Frieden · November 16, 2020

The numbers of cases and deaths are staggering, but it is the number of hospitalizations that is overwhelming the medical facilities in many states. When as a nation are we going to commit to taking this seriously. I fear the news about the 2 vaccines is going to lull us into a greater sense of complacency, thinking we can wait it out until we can get vaccinated. But the vaccine is not a silver bullet and we are going to lose a lot of people (and a lot of people who survive could very well have long term and, in many cases, debilitating and perhaps permanent effects).

 

11. How the U.S. military buys location data from ordinary apps

Vice · Joseph Cox · November 16, 2020

It is amazing the information we can glean from open sources (and public records such as contracting information).  (I do wish USSOCOM was a branch of the military, but I digress).

 

12. The Chinese air force sure is buying a lot of bombers

Forbes · David Axe · November 16, 2020

Quantity has a quality...?

 

13. WHO head ‘extremely concerned’ by increase in coronavirus cases

VOA · VOA News · November 16, 2020

Not that I necessarily trust the head of the WHO, but I fear he is right.

 

14. How Obama-era budget controls have hurt US military readiness against growing China, Russia, Iran threats

Fox News · Hollie McKay · November 16, 2020

I am generally a supporter of divided government and political compromise. But this was one compromise that has done long term damage to the military and will continue to do so as long as it is in place. The damage is equally the responsibility of Republicans and Democrats. This is something the President must work with Congress to overturn, but I fear the progressive wing of the Democratic party will oppose anything that leads to a status quo or increased defense budget. If there are any deficit hawks left anywhere in Congress, they would likely try to prevent this from being overturned.

 

15. U.S. drawing up plans to withdraw troops from Iraq, Afghanistan

Wall Street Journal · Gordon Lubold & Nancy A. Youssef · November 16, 2020

There may be no turning back from this.

 

16. Now is not the time to shortchange national defense budget

Daily Signal · James Di Pane & Janae Diaz · November 16, 2020

Bring on the counterarguments to this article’s critically important conclusion. But this is the essence of leadership: to properly prioritize among scarce resources and make the hard decisions.

 

17. U.S. Chamber statement on the Regional Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (RCEP)

US Chamber of Commerce · November 16, 2020

The Chamber fears the US is being left behind. We made a strategic mistake by abandoning the TPP.

 

18. Groupthink gas left the left blind

New York Times · Bret Stephens · November 16, 2020

An interesting connection described in the first two paragraphs. His essay describes why I could never be a Democrat. Of course, I will never be a Republican either, though for different ideological reasons.  Maybe someday us g.. da... independents will take power. After all, we are near the majority in the US.

 

19. Cutting U.S. defense attachés from embassies abroad is a bad idea

Defense One · Larry Hanauer · November 16, 2020

I just cannot comprehend the military rationale for doing this. FAOs and the attaché program is such a miniscule investment that pay huge dividends over time. FAOs/attaches punch well above their weight and make important contributions to national security. This is so shortsighted.

The Who's "Tommy" may have faired well as a deaf, dumb, and blind pinball wizard, but our commanders will not.

 

20. Rare-earth elements: a national security crisis

Real Clear Defense · William A. Saxton · November 17, 2020

Here is some background information on REE that I was looking at recently to understand the REE challenge:

“Countering China’s Grip on Rare Earth Commodities” - Norbert Chang, November 7, 2019

“China’s Monopoly on Rare Earth Elements—and Why We Should Care” - June Teufel Dreyer, October 7, 2020

“Critical Minerals and U.S. Public Policy” - Congressional Research Service June 28, 2019  

The basic problem? China controls roughly 80% of REE and the US only reacts to this problem when there is a crisis to the supply chain.

 

21. Analysis: Al Qaeda's deputy emir killed in Iran

FDD's Long War Journal · Thomas Joscelyn · November 15, 2020

 

22. Trump sought options for attacking Iran to stop its growing nuclear program

New York Times · Eric Schmitt et al. · November 16, 2020

Before we get our hair on fire, this is what the national security team and Presidents do. Address a national security problem, ask for and evaluate options, take recommendations, and make a decision.  Yes, we can speculate about the timing, but the fact is we have one president. The current president is in office until January 20th. He and his national security team must continue to deal with national security issues. Whether we like the political perceptions or not, the fact is national security operations must continue regardless of the outcome of the election.

 

23. Strengthening the Indian-U.S. defense partnership

SLDinfo.com · Robbin Laird · November 17, 2020

 

24. Solomon Islands government preparing to ban Facebook

Guardian · Ben Doherty · November 17, 2020

 

25. Trump’s Afghan adios

Wall Street Journal · Editorial Board · November 16, 2020

The WSJ editorial board is not on board.

 

General Victor Hugo worked for the legendary Col. Edward Lansdale, the head of the Saigon Military Mission. Hugo noticed that everyone working for Lansdale was a lieutenant. He asked him why he only had lieutenants on his staff. Lansdale said “because when I ask them to do something, they don’t know they can’t do it.”

"Broadly speaking, the short words are the best, and the old words best of all."

- Sir Winston Churchill

"Arrogant and domineering people can't stand the least, lightest, faintest breath of criticism. It just kills them."

-Booth Tarkington

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy

2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden

3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N.Korea

4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee

5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance

6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy

7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea

8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail

9. Kim Jong-un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden

10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us

11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea

12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM

13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed

14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy

15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school

16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea

17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month

18. N.K. paper demands Japan's apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities

19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases

20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary

21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings

22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden

 

1. For Joe Biden, restoring the ROK-U.S. alliance is critical for any successful North Korea policy

National Interest · David Maxwell & Matthew Ha · November 12, 2020

The latest from Mathew Ha and me.

I want to flag the excerpt:

"The other component of a successful Korea strategy for the new Biden administration should be reaching a shared consensus with Seoul on the fundamental nature of North Korea’s Kim family regime, its strategies, and its objectives.

The Moon administration is currently laboring under the false assumption that Kim Jong-un shares Seoul’s vision for peace and reconciliation. Seoul’s leadership seeks to initiate economic, cultural, and humanitarian engagement projects to build trust toward peace with North Korea. Unfortunately for Moon, Kim Jong-un has rejected the South Korean leader’s olive branches. Instead, Kim has continued his family’s political warfare strategy of using military provocations to force its adversaries to provide concessions, such as premature sanctions relief, and to de-escalate tensions by forcing U.S. and/or South Korean concessions.

Washington and Seoul must avoid making the mistake of ceding to Kim’s demands just to bring him to the negotiating table. Kim Jong-un will only view such a capitulation as weakness and will then demand more.

Biden therefore should remind Moon that the alliance must develop a new strategy that aims to break Kim’s adherence to his family’s diplomatic playbook. Biden and Moon should retain the existing strategic working group that brings together personnel from the U.S. State Department and South Korean Foreign Ministry, so the working group can craft and adopt the new strategy."

 

2. Trump’s North Korea legacy could survive Biden

Asia Times · Michael Bassett · November 16, 2020

Surely some out of the box thinking from Michael Bassett. A "70 day speed battle" by President Trump?  A US embassy Pyongyang?

 

3. Biden win 'causes panic' in N. Korea

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 16, 2020

I would be skeptical of this report. I think there are many other causes for skyrocketing prices in North Korea.

 

4. KJU attends 20th PB meeting of the 7th Central Committee

North Korea Leadership Watch · November 16, 2020

As I said reset the Kim watch countdown clock.

Is this really new? It seems senior leaders have been rehabilitated before and "returned to duty" so to speak.  After hearing the gulag warden say to them in the "Cool Hand Luke" way" we are going to get your mind right."  but I guess it is the expansion that is significant.  Maybe he cannot afford to lose to many senior officials because he does not have a lot of competent "depth."

 

5. South Korea hopes Joe Biden will reboot the U.S.-ROK alliance

National Interest · Seong-hyon Lee · November 16, 2020

Yes and the US will want to work with allies and partners to build a top-level team for the competition with China. The new administration will be asking the ROK to participate just as the Trump administration did.

 

6. Renew, elevate, modernize: a blueprint for a 21st-century U.S.-ROK alliance strategy

CNAS · Kristin Lee, Joshua Fitt, & Coby Goldberg · November 16, 2020

The 26-page report can be downloaded here.

I think this report was heavily influenced by the ideas Ambassador Lippert has been talking about for some years now. I suppose that is why he was asked to write the forward.

CNAS has a lot of influence with the incoming administration so I expect the ideas in this report will contribute to the Korea policy.

 

7. How Joe Biden could use a "carrot and stick" strategy with North Korea

National Interest · Bruce W. Bennett · November 16, 2020

I concur with Dr. Bennett. We need to execute diplomacy from a position of strength that includes actions and not just words. However, I fear some of the carrots such as aid for COVID-19 may not be acceptable to Kim because it will expose his weaknesses and, like the promise of "a brighter future," it will also contribute to engagement with the population and information flow or (at least "spillover") to the Korean people in the North. We must see not only the sticks but also the carrots through the eye and mind of Kim Jong-Un. Franky, I do not think any form of humanitarian assistance is a carrot to Kim.

 

8. Gordon Chang: history tells us Joe Biden's North Korea coalition idea will fail

National Interest · Gordon G. Chang · November 16, 2020

I do believe another round of 6 party talks will be a failure. We cannot have any expectation that China and Russia will make positive contributions. In fact, unlike the 6 party talks when there was some slight cooperation and alignment on denuclearization with Kim Jong-Il facing an almost 5 against 1 ratio, a renewal of the 6 party talks will be at best a 3 against 3. China and Russia (as well as North Korea) will use such a venue to continue to conduct political warfare. On the other hand, if we recognize this fact and we are willing to execute a superior form of political warfare, there could be some use to the 6 party talks. But unless we are willing to aggressively conduct our own political warfare on multiple levels, I would advise against a renewal of the 6 party talks. They will in no way result in the denuclearization of the North.

 

9. Kim Jong-Un's top priority (for now) is coronavirus, not Joe Biden

National Interest · Jihwan Hwang · November 16, 2020

Yes, the coronavirus is a game changer and a condition unlike any other. Yes, I have made the argument that it could cause a humanitarian disaster on a scale equal to or greater than the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-96. However, starvation of the Korean people is one thing. A pandemic that could roar through the ranks of the elite and the military and the entire party leadership is quite different and unlike anything the Kim family regime has ever faced. 

 

10. Let the record show: it’s not all about us

38 North · Editor’s Column · November 16, 2020

True. It is not always about us. Although North Korean messages can have multiple target audiences, they do not always include us. But I would say the majority of time such actions are messages for us.

And sometimes weapons tests are not meant as messages at all for domestic or external consumption.  Sometimes tests are simply necessary to advance a weapons program and capability (though, after the capability is developed, tests may be used for messaging).

 

11. Column: Biden must focus early on North Korea

Star Advertiser · Dan Leaf · November 15, 2020

I recall many alliance and OPLAN briefings from then Colonel Leaf when he was the D/J3 in Korea.

 

12. U.S. destroyer intercepts target mimicking a North Korean ICBM

Bloomberg · Anthony Capaccio · November 17, 2020

Excellent news. Go Navy!

 

13. Free trade agreement talks with Japan and ROK gaining speed

China Daily · Ouyang Shijia · November 17, 2020

Can a trilateral FTA be good for our alliance partners and for our alliances?

 

14. N. Korean officials try to get accurate read on the economy

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · November 17, 2020

This is the standard Kim family regime playbook.

 

15. Kim Jong-Un lambasts corruption at medical school

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Myong-song · November 17, 2020

Assigning blame is an important aspect of Korean culture. Of course, in the North it is taken to the extreme (though, in the South extreme blame happens, too… re: President Park and the Sewol ferry tragedy).

 

16. N. Korea completes deployment of Kumsong-3 cruise missiles on land and at sea

Dialy NK · Jeong Tae Joo · November 17, 2020

I wonder what the intelligence analysts at ROK/US CFC, ROK MND and JCS, INDPACOM, and in the DC beltway are assessing from all the ISR systems that are looking at the North?

 

17. Chinese FM to visit Korea later this month

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Eun-joong · November 17, 2020

Prepping for a Xi visit?

 

18. N.K. paper demands Japan’s apology, compensation for colonial-era atrocities

Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · November 17, 2020

We should not forget that Japan only provided reparations to South Korea. Of course, the legitimacy of the regime requires external threats and enemies and there is no better enemy than Japan for domestic propaganda purposes.

 

19. WHO reports continue to contradict North's claims of zero virus cases

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Shim Kyu-Seok · November 17, 2020

COVID-19 could be a greater threat than the South and the US. What if there is a widespread outbreak among the North Korean People's Army? What would the regime do if that happened?

 

20. Unification minister to discuss denuclearization with ex-U.S. defense secretary

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 17, 2020

I wonder if they will discuss the former SECDEF's recommendations for a preemptive strike against the North's missiles.

2006 Time op-ed from Ash Carter and William Perry: “The Case for a Preemptive Strike on North Korea's Missiles”

My response for calls for a preemptive strike: “A Preemptive Strike on North Korea?”  

 

21. N. Korea stiffs Egyptian telecom out of earnings

Chosun Ilbo · Roh Suk-jo · November 17, 2020

Not again? Or I should ask, still have not paid them?

Not only is North Korea not a responsible member of the international community, it does not live up to acceptable business stands and practices.

 

22. North Korea's watch and wait strategy on Joe Biden

National Interest · Minseon Ku · November 16, 2020

 

General Victor Hugo worked for the legendary Col. Edward Lansdale, the head of the Saigon Military Mission. Hugo noticed that everyone working for Lansdale was a lieutenant. He asked him why he only had lieutenants on his staff. Lansdale said “because when I ask them to do something, they don’t know they can’t do it.”

"Broadly speaking, the short words are the best, and the old words best of all."

- Sir Winston Churchill

"Arrogant and domineering people can't stand the least, lightest, faintest breath of criticism. It just kills them."

-Booth Tarkington

The U.S. State Department's Office of Policy Planning is set to release a blueprint for America’s response to China’s rise as an authoritarian superpower, Axios has learned.

Access the Axios article here.

Access the report here.