Small Wars Journal

11/19/2020 News & Commentary – Korea

Thu, 11/19/2020 - 10:01am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

7. UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

  1.   Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

 

1. USFK struggles to conduct Apache live-fire training

The Korea Times · November 16, 2020

This is a serious problem.  If our combat aviation brigade cannot conduct sufficient training to sustain readiness and maintain crew qualifications it would be the height of irresponsibility to allow an untrained force to remain in harm's way.  This is not a threat to withdraw; it is simply a fact that if we cannot train we cannot leave the force in place.

 

2. More verification needed over N.K. ICBM's reentry capability: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · November 19, 2020

I would err on the side they have developed the capability.  As has been pointed out to me by experts the idea that when the north tested a re-entry vehicle as it was observed to have "burned up" on re-entry all objectives reentering the earth's atmosphere are observed as being on fire and heating up to extremely high temperatures.  What we do not know is if the vehicle they tested had adequate heat shielding to survive re-entry. 

 

3. After Biden’s election victory, what's North Korea’s next move?

thebulletin.org · by Duyeon Kim · November 18, 2020

The $64,000 question.  Duyeon Kim covers the "North Korea’s next provocation" and "The future of diplomatic negotiations" while also examining ROK/US alliance issues.

 

4. NK paper urges tight antivirus efforts without expecting outside help

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

Yes, the regime has to defend against the coronavirus but it is using that to justify the re-imposition of extreme population and resources control measures to further oppress and control the Korean people in the north. External help would undermine those efforts

 

5. Exposing the Financial Footprints of North Korea’s Hackers

cnas.org· by Jason Bartlett

A very useful report.  We must deal with north Korea's "all purpose sword."

Conclusion: "North Korea will continue to exploit the vulnerabilities in U.S. and U.N. legal and financial institutions through any means possible. The United States should lead fellow responsible nations in creating safeguards against illicit cyber activity to match the sophistication of current cyber threats. North Korea’s expanding cyber capabilities are a direct threat to international security and the global financial system. Beyond strengthening cybersecurity protocols and information sharing between governments and financial institutions, the United States government can coordinate with its allies to conduct in-depth research on the whereabouts of overseas North Korean cyber agents to track, identify, and prevent further dispatch units."

 

6. Unification minister proposes “three small steps” for thawing inter-Korean relations

Hani · by Lee Je-hun· November 05, 2020

And how do we think Kim Jong-un will view these "three small steps?"  What is in it for him?  Why would these three small steps lead to a thaw?  We would be better served assessing the nature and strategy of the Kim family regime and developing policy and strategy based on realistic assumptions about (and knowledge of ) the regime.

Excerpt: The “three small steps” that Lee officially proposed to the North are restoring inter-Korean channels of communication, opening up Panmunjom to visits by South and North Koreans, and hosting divided family reunions at Panmunjom.

 

7.UN rapporteur sends letters to two Koreas calling for info provision on fisheries official killing

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · November 19, 2020

The UN carrying the human rights water for the Korean peninsula? 

 

8. South Korea to spend over $72.5 billion to boost defense industry over next 5 years

The Korea Times · November 18, 2020

 

9. Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Astronomical investments?  Paradoxically, progressive governments in Seoul seem to spend more on defense than conservative governments.

Excerpts: 

“Seoul's astronomical investments in its military follow four years of U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly questioning the necessity of the U.S. military deployment on the Korean Peninsula, and seeking to hike Seoul's defense contributions for the upkeep of U.S. forces by an unprecedented margin.


Though U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has sought to counter Trump's so-called "America First" vision by shoring up ties with allies, Trump's term in office has led to concern in Seoul about the uncertainty of the U.S. military's commitment to its security.

Defense Ministry to ratchet up spending on Korea's arms industry.”

 

10. Perry says diplomatic solution still possible on N. Korea's denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · November 18, 2020

Only IF kim Jong-un wants one.

 

11. TPP may have been U.S.' chance to contain China, denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

I think withdrawing from TPP was a major strategic mistake for the US but I fail to see how it would have significantly  contributed to the denuclearization of north Korea.

 

12. (Yonhap Interview) Biden-Kim summit possible, but only when both see 'substantive' outcome: Stephens

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

No US president should ever meet with the Kim family regime until working level negotiations produce an agreement that can be brought to the leaders for approval. That said, I do not think Kim Jong-un will conduct a meeting with a US leader unless it comes with a guarantee of sanctions relief.

 

13. Biegun notes need for 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches toward N. Korea: lawmakers

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 18, 2020

What I think he is describing is statesmanship.  There is no silver bullet for dealing with north Korea.  It is not either/or.  It is about balance and coherency among ends, ways, and means based on sound assumptions about the regime.  And both the ROK and US must align their assumptions for an effective alliance strategy for dealing with north Korea in its entirety and not just on the nuclear issue.

 

14. U.N. committee adopts resolution on N. Korea human rights violation

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 19, 2020

We neglect human rights at our peril and  of course to the peril of the Korean people living in the north.

But form the north - admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations: "There exist no human rights violations in North Korea that are described in the resolution," Kim Song, the chief of the North Korean mission to the U.N., claiming such accusations are based on false information from what he called "human trash North Korean defectors" that he claimed have been "woven" by enemy states.

 

15. China's policy on N.K. denuclearization consistent regardless of U.S. leadership change: Amb. Xing

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · November 18, 2020

The buried lede: "Xing also said during a forum hosted by his embassy that Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea first ahead of any other country once the coronavirus pandemic situation stabilizes."

 

16. Biden Has Inherited a Nuclear North Korea

The National Interest · by Darcie Draudt · November 17, 2020

More on the $64,000 question. How will the regime act or react?

A sobering conclusion: "On the surface, North Korea’s response to the Biden administration may look a lot like its tactics with Obama, with the possible addition of high-level summits. But the strategic challenges are rather different. Unlike his predecessors, presumptive President-elect Biden has inherited a nuclear North Korea. Formerly taboo to even mention this in conversations with the foreign policy establishment, it’s now considered a strategic reality that requires serious thought. And savvy North Korea knows it could most certainly use this to its advantage."

 

17. Life After Donald Trump on the Korean Peninsula

The National Interest · by Stein Tønnesson · November 17, 2020

Do not throw the baby out with the bathwater. 

Another sobering conclusion: "In this way, Biden may keep the United States in the Northeast Asian game, and maintain its alliance with South Korea. The alternative is to face a drawn-out crisis that may eventually be resolved on Northeast Asian terms, among China, North and South Korea, perhaps with some Russian involvement, but with little regard for U.S. or Japanese interests."

 

18. Xi Jinping Doubles Down on Korean War Propaganda

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · November 18, 2020

But, what are the themes and messages of the CPP, who are the target audiences and what do they hope to achieve in terms of influence those targets audiences?

Excerpt: "No one should doubt China’s resolution under fire. However, the United States proved its determination when it carried a global alliance against successive threatening powers. Both governments should avoid putting the other to the test. As Xi warned, “Once provoked, things will get ugly.” Which unfortunately is true for both sides."

 

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Heart is that by which the general masters.  Now order and confusion, bravery and cowardice, are qualities dominated by the heart.  Therefore the expert at controlling the enemy frustrates him and then moves against him.  He aggravates him to confuse him and harasses him to make him fearful.  He thus robs the enemy of his heart and his ability to plan.  

- Chang Yu, 1000

 

"An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes which can be made in a very narrow field." 

- Niels Bohr

 

Once a wrong idea about reality has been formed, it becomes more difficult to discover the truth.

-Unknown

 

Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.

-Unknown

 

 

 

 

 

 

Categories: News