Prompt: How can American special operations forces compete with near-peer adversaries in the polar regions?

 

A 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne), in cooperation with the Modern War Institute and Project 6633, essay contest. 

 

Full Details Available at this link: https://mwi.usma.edu/call-for-submissions-polar-sof-essay-contest/ 

 

Eligibility

• Essays will be accepted from any person from any field, and submissions from non-US participants are welcomed.
• Up to two people may co-author an essay entry.
• Participants may submit only one entry to the competition.
• Essays must be original, unpublished, and not subject to publication elsewhere.

Submission Guidelines

• Essays will not exceed 1,000 words.
• Use the standard submission guidelines for the Modern War Institute.
• Email your entry to USASOC.10.SFG.Polarsofcontest.SHDMBX@socom.mil with “Polar SOF Contest” in the subject line. Once submitted, no edits, corrections, or changes are allowed.
• Submission deadline: essays will be accepted until 11:59 PM EDT on May 2, 2021.

 

 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1.  Analysis | With impeachment over, 9/11 probe leaders lend weight to calls for an independent commission to investigate Capitol attack

2. No, covering Trump was not like landing at Omaha Beach

3. Bitcoin’s rise reflects America’s decline

4. Biden has no good options on Afghanistan with deadline for troop withdrawal looming

5. Short-Term Action Items for Lloyd Austin’s Pentagon

6. Rebuilding the State Department from the Ground Up

7. The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink

8. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

9. The agency founded because of 9/11 shifts to face the threat of domestic terrorism

10. Microsoft President Says Cyberattack Blamed On Russian Hackers Was 'Most Sophisticated' Ever

11. Forget Self-Driving Cars—the Pentagon Wants Autonomous Ships, Choppers and Jets

12. 'It's Going To Be Hard': A New West Point Leader On Confronting Extremism In Military

13. Collaboration or Chaos: Two Futures for Artificial Intelligence and US National Security

14. Iconic Connecticut gun maker Colt sold to Czech company

15. What was the actual impact of Russian information operations on US elections?

16. A New Conservatism: Freeing the Right From Free-Market Orthodoxy

17. US Defense Department to Create Big Picture China Task Force

18. Chinese professor: There were no ancient western civilizations, just modern fakes made to demean China

19. 'They're unrecognizable': One woman reflects on losing her parents to QAnon

20. QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

 

1.  Analysis | With impeachment over, 9/11 probe leaders lend weight to calls for an independent commission to investigate Capitol attack

The Washington Post · February 13, 2021

After watching the impeachment trial It is clear to me that we need a thorough investigation of January 6th.  Obviously, it was not as lethal as 9-11 but the attack on our democracy and our nation was much more dangerous and damaging (though our recovery from this can and will make our federal democratic republic stronger). As Kean and Hamilton note the American people need to know the truth and the details about what happened January 6th and why. There needs to be an objective telling of the story.

 

2. No, covering Trump was not like landing at Omaha Beach

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · February 14, 2021

A fascinating editorial by my friend Jeff Schogol. He pulls no punches on his fellow journalists.

Excerpts:

Being deployed to war zones involves millions of miseries that most civilians will never understand, including being absent during family emergencies; constantly being exposed to toxic substances that can cause crippling diseases; and sharing latrines with men who have simply forgotten their initial potty training. (Bro: Your aim wasn’t just off; it missed the target by miles.)

So, with all due respect to Mr. Nazaryan: If you really want to experience the thrill of taking an enemy beach, it’s not too late to join the Marines. They will give you all the crayons you could possibly eat.

 

3. Bitcoin’s rise reflects America’s decline

Financial Times · by Rana Foroohar · February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

Will cryptocurrency become the new gold — a hedge against a changing world? Will the Big Tech consensus prove more powerful than either the Washington consensus or the Beijing consensus? Perhaps. But it’s also possible that sovereign states will move to regulate this existential threat. In the US, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has already raised the issue of future cryptocurrency regulation.

None of this makes me want to buy bitcoin. But I also don’t see it as a normal bubble. It was unclear at the beginning of the 20th century which of the hundreds of automakers would win the race to replace the horse and buggy. Now, who knows whether bitcoin, ethereum, or diem, or some yet-to-be-invented digital currency will win out long term. For now, the bitcoin boom may best be viewed as a canary in the coal mine.

 

4.  Biden has no good options on Afghanistan with deadline for troop withdrawal looming

CNN · by Oren Liebermann, Zachary Cohen and Kylie Atwood

Excerpts:

An agreement between the Taliban and the US, signed by the Trump administration, committed the US to withdraw the final 2,500 troops by May, down from 13,000 one year ago. The Biden administration is looking for room to maneuver within the language of the agreement, but as the Taliban continues to carry out violent attacks and targeted killings, the US is left with few -- if any -- good options. One US official familiar with the internal discussions went so far as to call Biden's choices a "s*** sandwich."

...

Instead, the White House has received dozens of well-articulated and informed opinions that all have merit but do not offer a clear path forward that accomplishes all the administration's policy objectives, the official added.

"Most all of the policy options available are not optimal, shall we say," said Bradley Bowman, senior director for the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

 

5. Short-Term Action Items for Lloyd Austin’s Pentagon

warontherocks.com · by Christopher Dougherty · February 15, 2021

The short list:

Dealing with the Elephants in the Room (COVID and extremism, et al.)

Budget, Budget, Budget

Issue a “Skinny” National Defense Strategy Update and Guidance Documents

Reinvigorate Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy

Reach Out to the American People

I expect Colin Kahl will "reinvigorate" USD(P). I am particularly interested in the "skinny" NDS. I think the NDS and its irregular warfare annex are good and important documents and the baby should not be thrown out with the bathwater. While the National Security Strategy has been removed from the White House web site, the NDS remains on the Pentagon web site and still in effect.

 

6. Rebuilding the State Department from the Ground Up

The National Interest · by Robert D. Kaplan · February 14, 2021

Excerpt:

Having studied the foreign service for several years in the course of writing a biography of a State Department humanitarian, I can attest that what makes a good foreign service officer is sometimes not that much different from what makes a good newspaper correspondent: a willingness to escape from the embassy and explore beyond the capital city; to explore alone so as not to be influenced by groupthink; to listen for hours to people in the field without asking leading questions; to employ anxious foresight, that is to know the worst about a place so as to warn policymakers about avoidable bad outcomes; and most of all to avoid letting the perfect be the enemy of the good since policymaking is often a world of tough choices. In other words, it takes a highly unusual individual to become a successful foreign service officer. And that is the way it always should be. If we compromise on innate talent, the quality of the foreign service will suffer, no matter how much money is thrown at it.

 

7. The Taliban Close In on Afghan Cities, Pushing the Country to the Brink

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff and Taimoor Shah · February 15, 2021

The dilemma:

The Taliban’s brazen offensive has put the Biden administration into a dangerous political bind. Under the deal struck by President Donald J. Trump with the Taliban last year, all foreign troops — including the remaining 2,500 American service members who support Afghanistan’s beleaguered army and security forces — are scheduled to withdraw by May 1, leaving the country in an especially precarious state.

If the Biden administration honors the withdrawal date, officials and analysts fear the Taliban could overwhelm what’s left of the Afghan security forces and take control of major cities like Kandahar in a push for a complete military victory or a broad surrender by the Afghan government in the ongoing peace negotiations.

But if the United States delays its withdrawal deadline, as a congressionally appointed panel recommended on Feb. 3, the Taliban would most likely consider the 2020 deal with the United States void, which could lead to renewed attacks on American and NATO troops, and potentially draw the United States deeper into the war to defend Afghan forces, whom the Taliban could still retaliate vigorously against.

 

8. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

foxnews.com · by Associated Press

Pretty bold statement:

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told AP it resolutely opposes spreading conspiracy theories. "We have not done it before and will not do it in the future," the ministry said in a statement. "False information is the common enemy of mankind, and China has always opposed the creation and spread of false information."

Again, admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations. ​

 

9. The agency founded because of 9/11 shifts to face the threat of domestic terrorism

The Washington Post – by Nick Miroff - February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

For years leading up to El Paso, the Department of Homeland Security — created to prevent another 9/11 — had been under growing pressure to do more to address domestic extremism. Within seven weeks of the El Paso massacre, McAleenan released a plan for “countering terrorism and targeted violence” that amounted to a road map for the department’s pivot from foreign threats to homegrown ones. It was the first time DHS had identified the extent of the danger posed by domestic violent extremists and white supremacists.

The plan got little attention or support from the White House, and even though DHS began speaking more directly about domestic threats, the effort made little difference on Jan. 6, when the department was one of several federal agencies caught flat-footed. Since the attack on the Capitol, calls have intensified for DHS to emphatically turn its attention inward and do more to protect Americans from other Americans.

The Jan. 6 attack has left many lawmakers, and especially Democrats, insisting domestic terrorism has eclipsed the threat from foreign actors such as the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. DHS and its agencies are responsible for securing the country’s borders, ports, transportation and cyber systems, generally leaving the monitoring of extremist groups and terrorism investigations to the FBI. But DHS and its agencies have nearly eight times as many employees as the FBI, and calls for the department to play a more muscular role in combating domestic extremism have policymakers looking at new ways to enlist its resources.

The proposals have revived some of the civil liberties concerns that arose after the creation of the department as a large, internal security bureaucracy with a broad mandate. And the possibility of the department scrutinizing Americans has added to the unease, because providing homeland security is less controversial when the threats are foreign.

 

10.  Microsoft President Says Cyberattack Blamed On Russian Hackers Was 'Most Sophisticated' Ever

rferl.org

Excerpts:

The software giant had previously acknowledged that like U.S. government agencies and other firms, it had downloaded updates of network management software made by the company SolarWinds that the hackers had targeted. The compromised software provided hackers a backdoor into government and company networks.

Microsoft said at the time that the hacking operation was carried out by a “very sophisticated nation-state actor” and said companies and businesses affected were in several other countries, including Canada, Mexico, Belgium, Spain, the United Kingdom, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.

 

11. Forget Self-Driving Cars—the Pentagon Wants Autonomous Ships, Choppers and Jets

WSJ · by Andy Pasztor

And, of course, more opportunities for hacking. We also should not believe that these autonomous things will reduce manpower requirements. They will still have to be maintained and they will have to be defended against hacks, and the information they provide will still have to be analyzed by humans.

My Command Sergeant Major and I once visited the USS Rentz and the command master chief gave us a tour of this modern warship which incorporated many automated functions which reduced the necessary manpower as a few sailors could monitor the screens of the computers that were running the ship. But he lamented the lack of manpower he had and while the sailors had great technical skills to manage the automated functions, they did not have enough sailors to do the basic maintenance of simply cleaning up in the engine room. No one has automated those manual tasks and the command master chief said with the reduction in manpower the sailors had to divert more time to maintenance than running the automated systems. I may be wrong as this is now more than a dozen years ago but that is what I recall.

 

12. 'It's Going To Be Hard': A New West Point Leader On Confronting Extremism In Military

NPR · by James Doubek · February 13, 2021

Yes, it will be. But it will take enlightened leadership to do so. And it is something we have to do and we have to do it right or we risk breaking the military.

 

13. Collaboration or Chaos: Two Futures for Artificial Intelligence and US National Security

mwi.usma.edu · by Bilva Chandra · February 15, 2021

Excerpt: Artificial intelligence is both a thrilling beacon of modernization for the government, and an area of promising growth for private firms. Neither can afford to silo themselves, as a lack of collaboration will hinder both US national security interests and opportunities for private-sector innovation. The labyrinthine threat environment of unyielding US adversarial interests and the need for ethical AI frameworks both require cooperation; without it, we are doomed to chaos.

 

14.  Iconic Connecticut gun maker Colt sold to Czech company

stamfordadvocate.com · by Alexander Soule · February 12, 2021

I grew up not far from here. I always remember that blue doom as we drove past it on our way to Springfield, MA to visit family.

 

15.  What was the actual impact of Russian information operations on US elections?

davetroy.medium.com · by Dave Troy · February 14, 2021

Excerpts:

But when asked, “Did Russia’s IRA operations have an effect on the 2016 election?”, Mr. Rid made an argument I’d heard him make before: “There is no particular evidence that the IRA operations had an effect on the outcome of the 2016 election. And the fact that so many people think they did is giving Russia too much credit, and only makes them more successful.”

While I agree with Mr. Rid about those specific facts (there is no particular evidence that IRA’s actions caused President Trump to win the election itself), I don’t think it’s correct to end the discussion there.

Immediately following Mr. Rid’s talk, I tuned into another discussion featuring Maria Snegovaya, Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, and co-author of a new report on Russian disinformation operations, who was asked essentially the same question: What was the impact of Russia’s operations on the 2016 election?

I found her answer (paraphrased here) to be more nuanced: “Data from our study showed that the operations left the country much more polarized, such that people were specifically more likely to strongly oppose the presidential candidate of the opposite party.”

 

16. A New Conservatism: Freeing the Right From Free-Market Orthodoxy

Foreign Affairs · February 14, 2021

Excerpt: A conservative coalition built around economic priorities such as these, plus a merely nonradical set of cultural concerns, would attract a broad range of voters. It would attract the core of the existing Republican Party, which, as Trump proved, has much less interest in libertarian platitudes than Beltway strategists assumed. It might equally appeal to a large portion of the Democratic Party that is likewise culturally conservative; many Democratic voters aspire not to escape their families and communities or rely on public benefits but rather to be productive contributors in an economy that has a place for them. Unlike the naive fantasies that presume that a centrism halfway between the parties’ existing commitments must surely be ideal, a multiethnic, working-class conservatism could deliver a durable governing majority. It would do so by rediscovering an entirely different set of commitments, one that both parties’ elites have neglected for too long.

 

17.  US Defense Department to Create Big Picture China Task Force

thediplomat.com · by Abhijnan Rej · February 13, 2021

Excerpts:

Interestingly, Ratner noted that the task force’s work will not include recommendations for bureaucratic reorganization inside the Pentagon. He also — when asked whether the United States was looking to deploy land-based intermediate range missiles in Asia – noted that the task force will not focus on specify policy questions. Instead, Ratner emphasized its essentially broad-brush approach, stating that the task force’s goals would be to “surface key challenges, raise big questions, and then identify processes and who in the department are the appropriate folks to get after them.”

On February 10, Austin had briefed Biden about the task force during the president’s visit to the Pentagon for the first time since assuming office. Announcing the task force following the briefing, Biden noted that United States’ approach towards China “will require a whole of government efforts, bipartisan cooperation in Congress and strong alliances and partners.” In a February 7 interview with CBS, Biden described the China-U.S. relationship as one of “extreme competition,” albeit one where conflict need not be inevitable.

 

18. Chinese professor: There were no ancient western civilizations, just modern fakes made to demean China

taiwanenglishnews.com · by Phillip Charlier · February 10, 2021

Well, now I know something I really did not know. This is some very enlightening information (note my sarcasm).

Excerpt:  What all these books have in common is that world history as we know it is merely a Western fabrication. There were no ancient civilizations outside of China. Civilization is a Chinese characteristic, and others only became civilized after coming into contact with China. Therefore, today’s “world civilization” is Chinese in origin, and in nature.

 

19. 'They're unrecognizable': One woman reflects on losing her parents to QAnon

CNN · Story by Richa Naik, CNN Business Video by Richa Naik & Zach Wasser

It is just depressing to read about this QAnon cult.

 

20.  QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

And perhaps a conspiracy theory about a conspiracy theory. I saw this on twitter and could not resist sharing it. Quite a list of "members" and leaders of the cult. (note my sarcasm)

QAnon was enabled in part by former military and intelligence professionals "gone wild." 

Thread by @davetroy on Thread Reader App

threadreaderapp.com

Thread Reader

Dave Troy

Follow @davetroy

 

 

“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.”

 - George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

“Character is like a tree and reputation its shadow. The shadow is what we think it is and the tree is the real thing.”

- Abraham Lincoln

 

“There are men and women who make the world better just by being the kind of people they are. They have the gift of kindness or courage or loyalty or integrity. It really matters very little whether they are behind the wheel of a truck or running a business or bringing up a family. They teach the truth by living it.” 

- James Garfield (1831–1881)

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Freedom and Alliance in Jeopardy in South Korea: An Insider’s Testimony By Inho Lee

2. Korea 'Not Ready' to Take over Troop Control in Wartime

3. U.S., Korea 'Nearing Agreement' on USFK Cost-Sharing

4. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance crucial for Korea peace process

5. South Korea has few options to calm North Korea over combined drill

6. S. Korea closely monitoring N.K. moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS

7. U.S. military surveillance concentrates on Korean Peninsula

8. S. Korea should prioritize improving its relations with Japan, says gov. official

9. Linchpin and cornerstone (Korea and Japan)

10. Group of North Koreans caught trying to defect North Korea by boat

11. North Korea to dispatch up to 10,000 workers to Russia from March

12. Top nuke envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on peninsula peace, denuclearization

13. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act FAQs

14. South Korea: United Nations Command, the Bête Noire of Alliance Management

15. UNC considering resuming tours to Panmunjom amid eased social distancing scheme

16. New Korea-US alliance should tackle global climate emergency

17. Former South Korean coastguard chief acquitted over ferry sinking

 

1. Freedom and Alliance in Jeopardy in South Korea: An Insider’s Testimony By Inho Lee

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/freedom-and-alliance-jeopardy-south-korea-insiders-testimony by Inho Lee

A very provocative essay that will be quite controversial. Ambassador Lee; however, is well qualified to express her thoughts on this very complex and difficult subject.

 

2.  Korea 'Not Ready' to Take over Troop Control in Wartime

english.chosun.com

A couple of points. The US does not exercise wartime command of Korean troops just as after the OPCON transition is complete the ROK government will not exercise wartime command of US troops. After OPCON transition the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command will be commanded by a Korean general officer with a US general officer as his or her deputy commander. The Commander will answer to the ROK/US MIlitary Committee which is made up of representatives of both nations national command and military authorities which provides strategic guidance and oversight of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. Just as every US commander has stated since 1978 he works for both the President of the US and the President of Korea. The new Korean commander will say the same. OPCON is not passing from Washington to Seol. Both Washington and Seoul will continue to "own" the ROK/US CFC as co-equals as they do now. This is perhaps the biggest misunderstanding of the press, pundits, politicos, and people in both South Korea and the US. The command relationships and OPCON transition process are complex and nuanced and little has been done to explain this to the various audiences.

Setting a deadline for OPCON transition is dangerous. There is only one reason for a conditions based OPCON transition process and that is to ensure the security of the ROK is maintained. If the transition occurs on a timeline without having met the necessary conditions, then the security of the ROK, including the safety of the Korean people, will be at grave risk.  While political considerations will always be paramount for political leaders, military personnel and national security practitioners will counsel that security considerations must be factored into any decision and they will argue to ensure the conditions for OPCON transition are met for the good of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance. But ultimately they understand that the decision on OPCON transition will be made by political leaders in both the ROK and the US.

China does not get a vote in security issues of the ROK/US alliance. China would like to see an end of the ROK/US alliance and the removal of US troops from the Korean peninsula just as north Korea would. China should be factored in with the consideration that it does not care whether OPCON transition occurs, it would only like to see as much alliance friction as possible because that is to the benefit of both China and north Korea. It is imperative that during the OPCON transition process the ROK and US place the strength of the alliance as the priority. To do otherwise plays into the hands of China.

Lastly I would say the OPCON transition process is like the genie that cannot be put back in the lamp or the toothpaste that cannot be put back in the tube. To stop the process would damage the alliance. OPCON transition can occur, it should occur, and it must occur for a large number of reasons, namely because it is the natural evolution of the alliance, there is a great amount of trust between the two militaries, the ROK military has evolved to the point where it is capability of numerous independent warfighting capabilities, it will be an example for other US alliance partners, and most importantly any contingency that takes place in north Korea should be led by a Korean general because the regardless of whether the north attacks the South or the regime collapses the follow-on operations in north Korea will require military support to the Korean unification process and this must be led by a Korean commander of the future ROK/US Combined Forces Command.

What is required for OPCON transition to be successful is for decisive and strong leadership not only among the ROK and US military leadership but also the political leaders of both countries. The political leaders must listen to and heed the advice of their military leaders and prioritize the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance over politics. However, I know that is a naive statement.

 

3. U.S., Korea 'Nearing Agreement' on USFK Cost-Sharing

english.chosun.com

Hopefully this will be a five year agreement. Let's make sure we have the supporting information and public affairs campaign to support the successful conclusion of the negotiations.  Something along these lines for the American public:  Korea pays more for its defense as a percentage of its GDP than any US NATO ally, about 2.7%. It is increasing defense spending by nearly 8%. When the SMA negotiation is concluded it will pay approximately $1 billion for US stationing costs (more than 50%) and separate from the SMA requirements it paid 93% of the $10.3 billion of the cost to build the largest US military base outside of CONUS. Furthermore it is purchasing advanced US military equipment to the tune of about $20 billion (to include the F35) which is important for the US defense industry and jobs for the American people. However, and mostly importantly, the alliance rests on the foundations of shared interests, shared values, shared strategy, and the mutual defense of both countries from threats in the Asia Pacific region as per the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty.

 

4. Moon says S. Korea-U.S. alliance crucial for Korea peace process

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · February 15, 2021

This headline is good to read. Actions speak louder than words. We have to get our strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned for the good of the alliance.

Note this: "Moon pointed out that Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong is an architect of his liberal administration's diplomatic and security policy as the president gave him a letter of appointment."

 

5. South Korea has few options to calm North Korea over combined drill

The Korea Times · February 15, 2021

First we have to understand there is nothing that will "calm" north Korea over ROK/US combined training. We have to understand the regime's strategy part of which is to divide to conquer - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK. No matter what we do the regime will exploit it for propaganda purposes and to try to drive a wedge in the alliance especially because it sees the different views the Biden and Moon administration have toward strength and security and peace at any cost and appeasement. 

The way to handle this is to all conduct robust combined training to ensure the readiness of the combined military to deter attack, defend the ROK, and if the north miscalculates and attacks the South to support its strategy to dominate the peninsula, to defeat the nKPA. We should allow the north to bluster and saber rattle but we should not back down from doing what is absolutely necessary to ensure readiness as well as to contribute to the ongoing conditions based OPCON transition process.

We need to get over the fact that the regime will try to exploit our combined training not not succumb to the naive views that cancelling or reducing training will somehow positively influence KJU. It will only embolden him to double down on his blackmail diplomacy because our appeasement of him shows that his political warfare strategy works.

And we should not forget the nKPA is conducting its annual winter training cycle to bring its forces to the highest state of readiness for offensive operations at the optimal attack time of March.

 

6. S. Korea closely monitoring N.K. moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 15, 2021

Of course there could be a birthday surprise for us. The north is masterful at denial and deception so we may not see the indicators before any kind of event. However, I do not think Kim is in a position to exploit any kind of provocation. He probably assesses he will not be able to achieve the effects he desires at this time given the current internal situation in north Korea and the surrounding geopolitical conditions.

 

7. U.S. military surveillance concentrates on Korean Peninsula

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Prudent military and intelligence activities.

 

8.  S. Korea should prioritize improving its relations with Japan, says gov. official

donga.com – 15 February 2021

We need to hear this from Moon, Chung, and Suh and not just some government official.

 

9.  Linchpin and cornerstone (Korea and Japan)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This is why Moon and Suga must act decisively to prioritize national security and national prosperity while pledging to manage the historical issues.

Excerpt:

A plan for Korea-Japan military cooperation can be a possible solution. After the Korean War, Japan served as the rear base of the U.S. and UN troops. The country plays a crucial role in the combined operational posture against the North’s military threats. U.S. Forces Korea is mainly Army troops, while U.S. Forces Japan are naval, air and marine troops. Due to the distinct makeup, they cannot be separated strategically. That is why both Donald Trump’s administration and the Biden administration treat Korea-Japan-U.S. security cooperation importantly.

 

10.  Group of North Koreans caught trying to defect North Korea by boat

dailynk.com – by Jong So Yong - February 15, 2021

As I recall from our naval experts when we were conducting contingency planning for north Korean instability and collapse, to include refugee considerations, it would take about five days for an unpowered vessel to drift from the east coast of north Korea to Japan.

But to get to South Korea it requires a powered boat and the ability to evade north Korean maritime patrols. This seems like pure bad luck for these Koreans trying to escape from the north:

Afterwards, they took turns standing guard over the ship and made every effort to avoid being discovered, and later managed to reach the inter-Korean maritime border. However, their boat, which had hitherto been operating without a hitch, suddenly broke down. In the process of hurriedly fixing the boat, they reportedly let down their guard.

“[The crew] was prepared to jump into the sea with their life jackets on if they were discovered, but because they were focusing on repairing the boat, they didn’t even know that the patrol ships were approaching,” the source told Daily NK.

 

11. North Korea to dispatch up to 10,000 workers to Russia from March

dailynk.com – by Jang Seul Gi - February 14, 2021

Is this in violation of the UN resolution banning the use of north Korean slave labor overseas?

 

12.  Top nuke envoys of S. Korea, Japan hold phone talks on peninsula peace, denuclearization

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 15, 2021

Some good news. The ROK and Japan must also align their strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

13. Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act FAQs

dhs.gov · February 11, 2021

Useful background on US sanctions for Iran, Russia, and north Korea.

 

14.  South Korea: United Nations Command, the Bête Noire of Alliance Management

thediplomat.com · February 12, 2021

A useful overview and he identifies some of the important issues that South Koreans have with United Nations Command (some of which are conspiracy theory like).

He misses two points. Since South Korea is a sovereign nation it could ask the UNC to leave at any time. Of course, that would have serious consequences for the ROK/US alliance and it would be a huge strategic error on the part of the ROKG, nonetheless if the ROKG asked the UNC to leave there is no mechanism that could force the South to allow its continued presence.

Second, the Mutual Defense Treaty is far more important to the security of the ROK than the Armistice. The Armistice was simply a military agreement that did five basic things:

* A suspension of open hostilities

* A fixed demarcation line with a 4km (2.4 miles) buffer zone - the so-called demilitarized zone (DMZ)

* A mechanism for the transfer of prisoners of war

Both sides pledged not to "execute any hostile act within, from, or against the demilitarized zone", or enter areas under control of the other.

The agreement also called for the establishment of the Military Armistice Commission (MAC) and other agencies to ensure the truce held.

In paragraph 60 it also called on parties to come together within 90 days to solve the "Korea question" which is interpreted as the unnatural division of the peninsula.

If hostilities resume it is the Mutual Defense treaty and the ROK/US Combined Forces command that will be the center of gravity and main effort. The author rightly points out the importance of the UNC as an international force provider. But unlike during the Korean War it will not be the main warfighting HQ. The force provider role will be greater in the manpower intensive war that will likely be fought because of the demographic challenge the ROK faces and the declining size of military age males available for conscription and thus the declining size of the ROK Army.

 

15. UNC considering resuming tours to Panmunjom amid eased social distancing scheme

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 15, 2021

 

16.  New Korea-US alliance should tackle global climate emergency

The Korea Times · February 15, 2021

Hmmm...

 

17. Former South Korean coastguard chief acquitted over ferry sinking

channelnewsasia.com

 

 

“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism. The disorders and miseries, which result, gradually incline the minds of men to seek security and repose in the absolute power of an individual; and sooner or later the chief of some prevailing faction, more able or more fortunate than his competitors, turns this disposition to the purposes of his own elevation, on the ruins of Public Liberty.”

 - George Washington, George Washington's Farewell Address

 

“Character is like a tree and reputation its shadow. The shadow is what we think it is and the tree is the real thing.”

- Abraham Lincoln

 

“There are men and women who make the world better just by being the kind of people they are. They have the gift of kindness or courage or loyalty or integrity. It really matters very little whether they are behind the wheel of a truck or running a business or bringing up a family. They teach the truth by living it.” 

- James Garfield (1831–1881)

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. China hits back after US expresses 'deep concerns' over WHO Covid-19 report

2. China and Indo-Pacific in US military sights as Pentagon takes fresh look at forces

3. How to rein in China without risking war is the issue Biden must address

4. Sharp Power and Democratic Resilience Series | China’s Global Media Footprint

5. Can the US enlist the Philippines to help contain China in the Indo-Pacific?

6. China has already won Asia's arms race

7. US-educated foreign soldiers learn ‘democratic values,’ study shows – though America also trains future dictators

8. Pacific Gambit: The Role of Irregular Warfare in Australia’s Great Strategic Shift

9.  CNN Exclusive: WHO Wuhan mission finds possible signs of wider original outbreak in 2019

10. The FBI warned about far-right attacks. Agents arrested a leftist ex-soldier.

11. Book Review - The CIA War in Kurdistan | SOF News

 

1.  China hits back after US expresses 'deep concerns' over WHO Covid-19 report

The Guardian · by NewsOpinionSportCultureLifestyle · February 14, 2021

Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations.

 

2. China and Indo-Pacific in US military sights as Pentagon takes fresh look at forces

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3121693/china-and-indo-pacific-us-military-sights-pentagon-takes-fresh - by Wendy Wu

Here are our recommendations and considerations for the force posture review.

Defending Forward: Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/

 

3. How to rein in China without risking war is the issue Biden must address

The Guardian · by Simon Tisdall · February 14, 2021

Interesting analysis.

Excerpt:

Xi is still busy developing China’s economic, hi-tech, military and regional strengths. He is not yet in a position to challenge the US in a definitive way – though that day may come. All the same, he told Biden to keep his nose out of China’s “domestic affairs”. Hence his grim warning about “misunderstandings” and “misjudgments”.

Yet for Biden, enhanced bilateral cooperation that fails to change China’s behaviour in controversial areas such as commerce and Xinjiang amounts to a trap. He accepts the consensus view that the US and China are now engaged in an intense strategic competition. Electorally, he cannot afford to look weak.

So the question he must answer is: how to rein in China, and robustly assert US interests, without risking war?

That’s what makes Biden’s decision to call India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, before speaking to Xi especially intriguing. The two discussed closer strategic and military collaboration. Maybe it’s no coincidence Indian forces recently fought China along their shared Himalayan border, where Chinese troops are now said to be pulling back.

 

4. Sharp Power and Democratic Resilience Series | China’s Global Media Footprint

ned.org - by Sarah Cook

The 24 page report can be downloaded at this link: https://www.ned.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Chinas-Global-Media-Footprint-Democratic-Responses-to-Expanding-Authoritarian-Influence-Cook-Feb-2021.pdf?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=site&utm_campaign=media%20cook

 

5. Can the US enlist the Philippines to help contain China in the Indo-Pacific?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3121582/can-us-enlist-philippines-help-contain-china-indo-pacific - by Rachel Zhang and Teddy Ng

An interesting question.

Excerpts:

Some diplomatic observers said there was momentum in the Philippines to renew the deal, which covered the operation of US forces in the country, given China’s increasing dominance in the South China Sea – a resource-rich and strategically important waterway that is subject to numerous disputed claims.

China’s recent passage of a law giving its coastguard service explicit authority to fire on foreign vessels in its territory was seen in the Philippines as “a spear directed against us”, according to Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor of international relations at De La Salle University in Manila.

“Within the [Philippine] government, there is a pro-China faction and a pro-America faction. It seems now the pro-America faction has become dominant … mainly because of China’s recent action, the new law of China regarding the coastguard,” he said.

 

6. China has already won Asia's arms race

asia.nikkei.com – by Willaim Bratton

Excerpts:

China's regional military leadership is the result of its dramatic advances over the last three decades. The country's surging defense budget has allowed every aspect of the PLA to be transformed and modernized, with an impressive commitment to new technologies and equipment. These investments have allowed new doctrines based on regional force projection rather than China's territorial defense. This is particularly visible with the PLA Navy and its new aircraft carriers, destroyers, assault ships and submarines. But there have also been substantial increases in spending across all the PLA's branches, including the Air Force and Rocket Force.

In contrast to the PLA's advances, numerous militaries across Asia have been starved of funds and are facing relative obsolescence. True, regional defense budgets are expanding, but they frequently remain small by comparison with Gross Domestic Products and are often growing slower than underlying economies. Military spending has, in fact, shrunk over the last 10 years as a percentage of overall GDP across many of China's neighbors.

This trend is most pronounced in Southeast Asia, where the majority of countries have a seemingly entrenched reluctance to build credible defensive capabilities. Only Singapore, which by itself accounts for more than a quarter of the region's defense expenditure, appears committed to maintaining an advanced and comprehensively equipped military. By comparison, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines all spend approximately 1% of their GDPs on defense. Their militaries are chronically underfunded with aging and often inoperable equipment. And when Southeast Asian countries do buy new weapons, it is often on such a small scale as to be almost irrelevant.

 

7.  US-educated foreign soldiers learn ‘democratic values,’ study shows – though America also trains future dictators

theconversation.com · by Sandor Fabian

A fascinating read about a subject that is so difficult and complex. It is hard to quantify the effects of foreign military training. Some very interesting data in this article.

 

8. Pacific Gambit: The Role of Irregular Warfare in Australia’s Great Strategic Shift

mwi.usma.edu · Kyle Atwell and Andrew Milburn | 02.12.21 · February 12, 2021

Although this is focused on Australia but it goes much beyond. A lot of history balanced with the current and future threats.

The 48 minute podcast is at this link: https://mwi.usma.edu/pacific-gambit-the-role-of-irregular-warfare-in-australias-great-strategic-shift/

 

9.  CNN Exclusive: WHO Wuhan mission finds possible signs of wider original outbreak in 2019

CNN · by Nick Paton Walsh

We heard reports from Taiwan last February that the outbreak began months before December 2019 in Wuhan.

 

10. The FBI warned about far-right attacks. Agents arrested a leftist ex-soldier.

The Washington Post – by Brittany Shammas and Gerrit De Vynck - February 14, 2021

Terrorists feed off each other:

But Baker represents the flip side of that threat: As a far-right extremist movement wages an assault on American government and institutions, experts say an unpredictable battle is brewing, fueling potentially legitimate threats of violence from the opposite fringe of the political spectrum.

“It is ratcheting up and then getting a response and a back-and-forth,” said Steven Chermak, a professor of criminal justice at Michigan State University.

Political violence remains far more common a feature of far-right groups than of those on the far left, according to law enforcement officials and data compiled by those who study extremist violence. Federal authorities have repeatedly described homegrown, right-wing extremists as the most urgent terrorism threat facing the nation.

But high-profile right-wing attacks could be spurring far-left extremists to respond in kind, Chermak said. And cases like Baker’s can have a snowball effect, he said: Articles about Baker have been circulated online by members of the Proud Boys, a far-right group with a history of violence, who cite his arrest as evidence that left-wing activists are plotting against them.

 

11. Book Review - The CIA War in Kurdistan | SOF News

sof.news · by John Friberg · January 26, 2021

 

 

"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.” 

- Judge Learned Hand

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

“You must allow everyone the right to exist in accordance with the character he has, whatever it turns out to be: and all you should strive to do is to make use of this character in such a way as its kind of nature permits, rather than to hope for any alteration in it, or to condemn it offhand for what it is. This is the true sense of the maxim—Live and let live…. To become indignant at [people’s] conduct is as foolish as to be angry with a stone because it rolls into your path. And with many people the wisest thing you can do, is to resolve to make use of those whom you cannot alter." 

- Arthur Schopenhauer 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. What North Korea’s Party Congress means for Biden and the world

2. Defector Tae Yong-ho: ‘A very small spark could topple Kim Jong Un’

3. Kim Jong Un Might Be Toppled By ‘A Very Small Spark’ Due To Worsening Crisis In North Korea

4. Fresh North Korea nuclear crisis 'biggest risk to world' in 2021, experts warn

5. S. Korea, U.S. preparing to stage combined exercise in mid-March: sources

6. State Dept. says North’s denuclearization still matters

7. The OpCon Transfer Reality: Facts and Fantasy. by GEN (Ret) USArmy B B Bell

8. North Korea looms as next big test for China-US relations

9. Kim Jong-un lashes out about economic policy

10. Joint exercise with U.S. to start March 8 (combined training in Korea)

 

1. What North Korea’s Party Congress means for Biden and the world

thebulletin.org – Duyeon Kim - February 12, 2021

Very good and useful analysis from Duyeon Kim. I think the two most important assessments coming out of the 8th Party Congress is as she describes: Tightening Control and Masking Weakness. I think Kim is facing enormous internal pressure as a result of his multiple personal failures from unsuccessfully playing Moon and Trump to get sanctions relief for the past two years, to his policy decisions in response to the natural dsiasters, COVID, and sanctions. COVID has been a double edged sword for him - it is likely an existential threat to the north that he must defend against but it is also a perfect opportunity to implement the draconian population and control measures to exert greater control. As Duyeon points out, the shows (in October and January) of relative military strength are designed to mask regime weakness. But the tightening control and masking of weakness means we need to be very observant to the indications and warnings of internal instability (the conditions which unfortunately could lead to catastrophic decisions by KJU).

But I really want to highlight this paragraph as there is a lot to unpack here.

It would be a mistake for North Korea to test a weapon before the Biden administration formulates its team and policy on Korea and before direct talks between the two countries are given a chance. Even so, Pyongyang may see US-South Korean annual military exercises in March as an opportunity to test. For that reason, the Moon government will want to scale the drills down further to prevent aggravating Pyongyang. But the defensive military exercises to prepare for a potential North Korean attack will not be the cause, if North Korea decides to test weapons; they are merely handy excuses Pyongyang uses to justify the weapons tests it needs to refine its technology.

I hope people can grasp the nuance here. Yes it would be Kim's mistake to conduct a test before the Biden administration announces its new policies. But Duyeon is correct that it is very possible that Kim could conduct a provocation around the annual ROK/US combined training in March. But here is the key point we must not miss. The Moon administration may try to force the scaling back of the training both to prevent provocation and to improve north-South engagement opportunities. That would be a significant strategic mistake because not only will that impact readiness and the OPCON transition process, it will not prevent the regime from conducting a provocation. Again as Duyeon very correctly notes the combined training will not be the cause of a regime provocation. Kim will test or conduct some provocation because he assesses it is to his advantage to do so (either for messaging, internal and/or external, and for advancing his military programs and capabilities).. It will not be because of his displeasure with the combined training or that he somehow feels threatened by the defensive training that is conducted to prepare for a potential north Korean attack. And he certainly will not refrain from testing or a provocation because the Moon administration is successful in forcing the reduction in the scale of the training. It would be a huge mistake for the ROK/US alliance to operate under the misguided assumption that Kim's behavior can be positively influenced by making concessions in terms of combined training (when we make concessions it only emboldens the regime and will cause KJU to double down on blackmail diplomacy). The ROK/US military forces must sustain their combined training and not be subject to decisions made by policy makers who are operating under erroneous assumptions (and a lack of understanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime). we need to deal with KJU as he really is and not as we would wish him to be.

 

2. Defector Tae Yong-ho: ‘A very small spark could topple Kim Jong Un’

Financial Times · by Edward White · February 12, 2021

I make no predictions on if and when something will happen as a result of a "spark" except to say that what happens could very well be catastrophic for the South, the region, the Alliance and. the international community.

Tae's warning/recommendation to the Biden Administration:

But now that Tae is in Seoul he wants to keep using his newfound freedom of speech to send a message back to Pyongyang — an endeavour made easier by the platform given to him in the National Assembly seat he won easily in April. “My real mission as a politician is that I want to tell the North Korean elite that there could be an alternative for their future,” he says.

Following the polite intervention of Tae’s patient parliamentary aide, we wipe our hands and ready our masks.

Tae has a parting message for the new Biden administration: do not strike an Iran-style nuclear deal because it would essentially legitimise Kim Jong Un and justify his policies. Instead, he wants the US to keep enforcing tough sanctions. Ultimately, Tae doesn’t discount Kim’s strength. But with enough pressure he believes the dictator’s downfall is a possibility — a prospect that might come about much more swiftly were China ever to enforce sanctions properly.

“A very small spark” is all that it would take, “like what happened at the Arab Spring.” As we step out into the snowy streets of democratic South Korea, I wonder whether anyone in communist North Korea, barely 50km away, is listening.

I have given this a little bit of thought over the past 25+ years and it is something we must be ready for but we must acknowledge that the conditions that cause such a "spark" could lead to a decision by KJU to execute his campaign plan as the only option he has left to attempt to ensure the survival the Kim family regime. And of course the regime could continue to "muddle through" as it has for decades. 

 

“The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military” 

School of Advanced Military Studies

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf 

 

"Should The United States Support Korean Unification And If So, How? 

International Journal of Korean Studies ·Vol. XVIII, No. 1  

 http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1482467285_add_file_7.pdf 

 

"Unification Options and Scenarios: Assisting A Resistance"

International Journal of Korean Unification Studies 

Vol. 24, No. 2, 2015, 127–152 

https://www.kinu.or.kr/pyxis-api/1/digital-files/d3f8fb63-4f8c-49c9-a4fa-901d3120bd5a 

 

"Beyond the Nuclear Crisis: A Strategy for the Korean Peninsula"

National Defense University

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B513_sp6wSItQldmdVZ4cWFudWM/view?usp=sharing

 

“When North Korea Falls 

The furor over Kim Jong Il’s missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse. How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China” 

ROBERT D. KAPLAN 

OCTOBER 2006 ISSUE 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/ 

 

 

Defector Tae Yong-ho: ‘A very small spark could topple Kim Jong Un’

Financial Times · by Edward White · February 12, 2021

 

3. Kim Jong Un Might Be Toppled By ‘A Very Small Spark’ Due To Worsening Crisis In North Korea

inquisitr.com · by Anna Harnes · February 13, 2021

A bit more perspective based on Tae Yong-ho's interview with the Financial Times.

 

4. Fresh North Korea nuclear crisis 'biggest risk to world' in 2021, experts warn

dailystar.co.uk · by James Caven · February 14, 2021

A warning based on analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations and Scott Snyder and Paul Stares. I sent the CFR report last month but it can be accessed here: https://www.cfr.org/news-releases/north-korea-top-threat-2021-finds-cfr-survey

 

5. S. Korea, U.S. preparing to stage combined exercise in mid-March: sources

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 14, 2021

We need to conduct robust training to ensure readiness and continue the OPCON transition process. Policy makers and civilian decision makers must not be swayed by the misguided assumption that scaling back exercises will result in a positive change in north Korean behavior. the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance must be the priority and robust combined training is necessary to ensure that security.

 

6.  State Dept. says North’s denuclearization still matters

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This could be an indication of the broad strokes of the policy direction.

Price elaborated on the U.S. approach. “When it comes to our strategic goals, we’ll focus on reducing the threat to the United States and to our allies as well as to improving the lives of the North and South Korean people,” he said. “And again, the central premise is that we remain committed to denuclearization of North Korea.”  

 

7.  The OpCon Transfer Reality: Facts and Fantasy. by GEN (Ret) USArmy B B Bell

icasinc.org

I do not think the genie can put back in the lamp or the toothpaste back in the tube.

I think if we try to stop the OPCON transition position it could break the alliance. I think there are ways to make it work but it will take strong leadership on both the ROK and US sides to make it happen in a way that enhances the security of the ROK and the Alliance.

 

8. North Korea looms as next big test for China-US relations

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3121569/north-korea-looms-next-big-test-china-us-relations - Laura Zhao and Eduardo Baptisa

Patience. Let's give the Biden administration some time to formulate sound policy and an executable strategy.

And yes China will play a key role but we should not assume that China will help the ROK and US solve their security problems.

And we should pay attention to Dr Jung Pak and not Moon Chung-in. We should not be influenced by the mischaracterization of US officials by Moon. He attacks any american who advocates sustaining pressure on the regime (for myriad reasons) by saying “Regime change through maximum pressure won’t work.” We should note that the mainstream thinking in Washington does desire a diplomatic solution. But Moon's diplomacy is about appeasing the north with concessions while many in DC wil advocate for a deft combination of diplomacy with pressure.

Excerpts:

According to Moon Chung-in, one of South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s closest foreign policy advisers, Wang expressed support for Seoul’s strategy of an “incremental, phased approach based on simultaneous exchanges, action for action” during his visit to South Korea in November.

A first step would involve the verifiable dismantling of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility and the declaring of all the country’s hidden nuclear facilities, in return for a pursuit by the US of selective sanctions relief and other measures to ease Pyongyang’s fear of regime change, the adviser said.

However, he also expressed concern at the influence on the Biden administration of “mainstream thinking in Washington” and “hardliner” North Korea analysts like Jung Pak, Biden’s pick for deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

“Regime change through maximum pressure won’t work,” said Moon, referring to Jung’s hawkish stance on North Korean denuclearisation. “The only solution is a negotiated settlement through diplomacy.”

 

9. Kim Jong-un lashes out about economic policy

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

So I guess all the new economic team needs to do is set low expectations and goals:

“In the field of agriculture, the goal for grain production has been set [too] high […] irrespective of present situation where farming condition is unfavorable and the state is unable to supply enough farming materials,” KCNA reported Friday in English, paraphrasing what Kim said during the session. 

 

10. Joint exercise with U.S. to start March 8 (combined training in Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

 

 

"We rest our hopes too much upon constitutions, upon laws, and upon courts. These are false hopes; believe me, these are false hopes. Liberty lies in the hearts of men and women; when it dies there, no constitution, no law, no court can save it; no constitution, no law, no court can even do much to help it.” 

- Judge Learned Hand

 

"It is no weakness for the wisest man to learn when he is wrong." 

- Sophocles

 

“You must allow everyone the right to exist in accordance with the character he has, whatever it turns out to be: and all you should strive to do is to make use of this character in such a way as its kind of nature permits, rather than to hope for any alteration in it, or to condemn it offhand for what it is. This is the true sense of the maxim—Live and let live…. To become indignant at [people’s] conduct is as foolish as to be angry with a stone because it rolls into your path. And with many people the wisest thing you can do, is to resolve to make use of those whom you cannot alter." 

- Arthur Schopenhauer 

Full Episode: https://mwi.usma.edu/pacific-gambit-the-role-of-irregular-warfare-in-australias-great-strategic-shift/

 

Australia is undergoing the most fundamental strategic realignment since the Second World War, toward a focus on threats closer to home without reliance on the United States. In that context, what role does irregular warfare play in Australian national security strategy? What lessons does the Australian experience hold for the United States as they both transition from the post-9/11 wars to great power competition? Will Australia’s legacy in conducting irregular warfare enable it now to make this shift and take on the snakes—and one large dragon—in its own backyard?

Our two guests argue that strategic documents in both the United States and Australia fail to capture the reality of numerous overseas irregular warfare engagements over the past quarter century. The militaries of both countries learned many lessons, often paid for in blood, about how to fight insurgencies during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, the opponents of the West have also adapted, with both state and nonstate threats increasingly coming to resemble each other. How to adapt both military posture and national security strategy in the transition from the conflicts of the past nearly two decades to great power competition is a challenge both countries face, providing a case study in cooperation and adaptation.

Dr. David Kilcullen is a best-selling author and a former officer in the Australian military. He is president and CEO of Cordillera Applications Group, a research and development firm headquartered in the United States. Dr. Kilcullen has written multiple award-winning books on irregular warfare topics. His most recent book, The Dragons and the Snakes: How the Rest Learned to Fight the West, serves as a foundation for our discussion on the current global threat environment.

Andy Maher is an Australian infantry officer with operational experience in Afghanistan and Iraq. He is currently serving as a military fellow, doctoral candidate, and lecturer with the University of New South Wales, Canberra, where he teaches a postgraduate course on irregular warfare.

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Retired Marine general, trailblazing Navy admiral among new picks who will scrutinize bases with Confederate names

2. Violent propaganda an 'enormous challenge' for security agencies amid rising rightwing threat – report

3. Philippines’ Duterte Expects US to ‘Pay’ to Keep Military Pact Alive

4. Uyghur Group Defends Detainee Database After Xinjiang Officials Allege ‘Fake Archive’

5. The US and its allies must ensure Taiwan doesn’t fall to Beijing

6. Weed Out Violent Extremism

7. China Refuses to Give WHO Raw Data on Early Covid-19 Cases

8. China Scores a Public Relations Win After W.H.O. Mission to Wuhan

9. When Allies Go Nuclear - How to Prevent the Next Proliferation Threat

10. Keep faith in democracy, Taiwan president tells Hong Kongers in new year message

11. Biden: ‘China Going to Eat Our Lunch’ Unless US Moves on Infrastructure

12. The Pandemic’s Deadly Winter Surge Is Rapidly Easing

13. Confederate Military Base Names Just Met Their Gettysburg

14. The Pentagon Needs Budget Agility to Compete with China

15. The Law Professor Who Trained with the D.C. Police

16. “I Don’t Trust the People Above Me”: Riot Squad Cops Open Up About Disastrous Response to Capitol Insurrection

17. Want Unity For Real? Then America Needs to Get Back to Facts

18. How to Understand the Rage Economy

19. Dino Pick returns home after work in Washington, D.C. to clean up ‘ethical lapses’ in U.S. Special Operations.

 

1. Retired Marine general, trailblazing Navy admiral among new picks who will scrutinize bases with Confederate names

The Washington Post – by Dan Lamothe - February 12, 2021

I hope they focus on heroes among our soldiers and NCOs (and it appears they will). No disrespect to generals but they receive enough recognition.

Excerpts:

The most prominent candidate for the renaming is Master Sgt. Roy Benavidez, a Special Forces soldier who was awarded the Medal of Honor for a daring rescue of trapped and wounded comrades in Cambodia in 1968. Others include Gen. Roscoe Robinson Jr., the first African American to become a four-star general in the Army, and Sgt. 1st Class Alwyn Cashe, an Iraq War hero who is Black and expected to posthumously receive the Medal of Honor this year.

“Who we honor should represent our values,” Seidule said. “I don’t want to be like John Bell Hood. I want to be like Roy Benavidez.”

 

2. Violent propaganda an 'enormous challenge' for security agencies amid rising rightwing threat – report

The Guardian · by Daniel Hurst · February 12, 2021

A view from Australia.

 

3. Philippines’ Duterte Expects US to ‘Pay’ to Keep Military Pact Alive

https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/philippine/pay-demand-02122021144625.html - by Jojo Rinoza and Marielle Lucenio

 

Duterte practices his own form of blackmail diplomacy. 

 

4. Uyghur Group Defends Detainee Database After Xinjiang Officials Allege ‘Fake Archive’

rfa.org

More important reporting from Radio Free Asia.

 

5. The US and its allies must ensure Taiwan doesn’t fall to Beijing

aspistrategist.org.au · by Malcolm Davis · February 11, 2021

Excerpts:

The loss of the US alliance would be catastrophic for our security, and a hegemonic China with grand imperial ambitions would force us to confront an ugly strategic choice. Acting alone, we’d need significant boosts to our defence spending to achieve a degree of self-sufficiency beyond the traditional levels of ‘self-reliance’ that past defence white papers have alluded to. That could include developing military capabilities normally not considered for our defence force to deter a nuclear-armed adversary. We may well see an intensification of the political and economic pressure Beijing applied to Australia for much of 2020.

A military crisis across the Taiwan Strait would be a serious test of our national resolve, the strength of our most vital strategic relationship and our commitment to the values we stand for. The outcome of such a crisis would shape the strategic environment of the Indo-Pacific region for decades.

 

6. Weed Out Violent Extremism

ausa.org · February 12, 2021

From my friend and mentor, LTG Jim Dubik.

Conclusion:

Whatever ends up as the Army’s plan, this much is clear: Participation in domestic violent extremist groups is as incompatible with military service as is participation in foreign-rooted groups.

Though some claim First Amendment rights, this amendment does not protect criminal activity or anyone participating in groups that promote violence. No one has the right to be a member of a domestic violent extremist group—especially anyone serving in uniform.

Addressing this problem will take time; success will not come from merely issuing a directive. It will take sustained, focused leadership from officers and sergeants at every echelon of command and in every Army organization. “Not in my squad” should become the motto to the deradicalization effort.

The Army has helped build America before. The Army became a model for racial desegregation, as it was for incorporating women into the ranks and expanding their opportunities.

Helping America deradicalize is yet another chapter in the Army’s long history of not just reflecting America but building America. Deradicalizing must be done and it can be done. The Army and the nation will be better for it.

 

7. China Refuses to Give WHO Raw Data on Early Covid-19 Cases

WSJ · by Jeremy Page and Drew Hinshaw

Excerpts:

Chinese officials and scientists provided their own extensive summaries and analysis of data on the cases, said the WHO team members. They also supplied aggregated data and analysis on retrospective searches through medical records in the months before the Wuhan outbreak was identified, saying that they had found no evidence of the virus.

But the WHO team wasn’t allowed to view the raw underlying data on those retrospective studies, which could allow them to conduct their own analysis on how early and how extensively the virus began to spread in China, the team members said. Member states typically provide such data—anonymized, but disaggregated so investigators can see all other relevant details on each case—as part of WHO investigations, said team members.

 

8. China Scores a Public Relations Win After W.H.O. Mission to Wuhan

The New York Times · by Javier C. Hernandez · February 12, 2021

This needs to be called out:

But instead of scorn, the W.H.O. experts on Tuesday delivered praise for Chinese officials and endorsed critical parts of their narrative, including some that have been contentious.

 

9. When Allies Go Nuclear - How to Prevent the Next Proliferation Threat

Foreign Affairs · by Chuck Hagel, Malcolm Rifkind, Kevin Rudd, and Ivo Daalder · February 12, 2021

Conclusion:

For more than 50 years, the United States’ alliances have helped stop the spread of nuclear weapons. But faced with worsening regional threats and growing uncertainty about U.S. staying power, U.S. allies are beginning to reassess their security arrangements—including their nuclear dimensions.

Biden has made rebuilding U.S. alliances a fundamental priority from the moment he took office. The president was right to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to NATO in a call with the alliance’s secretary-general and key European allies, and he was right to do the same regarding Australia, Japan, and South Korea in calls to those countries’ leaders.

Now, however, comes the hard work of transforming relationships in more fundamental ways—bolstering deterrence and defense capabilities all around, bringing Asian and European allies into the U.S. nuclear planning process, and broadening arms control efforts beyond Russia. This is hardly an impossible agenda, but it could hardly be more urgent. At stake is nothing less than a decades-long success: preventing the spread of the world’s deadliest weapons.

 

10. Keep faith in democracy, Taiwan president tells Hong Kongers in new year message

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · February 10, 2021

 

11. Biden: ‘China Going to Eat Our Lunch’ Unless US Moves on Infrastructure

voanews.com – by Steve Herman – 11 February 2021

Cynical excerpt:

"Infrastructure is the best idea that never happens," according to Bipartisan Policy Center President Jason Grumet, who expressed optimism the subject might achieve more legislative traction during the Biden administration. "There is a broad-based agreement that in addition to the resources that have been invested in a kind of immediate urgency around surviving the winter, there is now an agreement that there needs to be some deeper investment."

The desire for huge government spending to overcome the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic is in addition to a "very strong view that we as a nation are trying to run a 21st-century economy on a 20th-century infrastructure and that simply diminishes our national competitiveness," especially with respect to China, Grumet told VOA.

Obama, in 2009, emphasized "shovel-ready" projects that would benefit from his $800 billion stimulus plan. Congress eventually allocated only about $28 billion of that package for transportation infrastructure.

Trump, in 2018, proposed spending $200 billion over a decade to spur $1.5 trillion, mostly for private sector infrastructure projects, but Congress never voted on it. Before leaving office, his administration proposed a $1 trillion infrastructure spending plan, although it was never publicly released.

 

12. The Pandemic’s Deadly Winter Surge Is Rapidly Easing

defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project

Seems some reason for hope and optimism.

 

 

13. Confederate Military Base Names Just Met Their Gettysburg

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

 

14.  The Pentagon Needs Budget Agility to Compete with China

defenseone.com · by Bryan Clark

I am no acquisition or budget expert but is it true there is no incentive to identify and cancel failing programs? Are acquisition programs like bureaucracies? Is their "prime directive" to ensure the survival of the bureaucracy or acquisition program?

 

15. The Law Professor Who Trained with the D.C. Police

The New Yorker · by Isaac Chotiner · February 13, 2021

As an aside Professor Brooks, in addition to being a former State and Pentagon official, is also married to a retired Special Forces officer.

 

16. “I Don’t Trust the People Above Me”: Riot Squad Cops Open Up About Disastrous Response to Capitol Insurrection

ProPublica · by Joaquin Sapien, Joshua Kaplan

A sad situation that led to tragedy on so many levels.

 

17. Want Unity For Real? Then America Needs to Get Back to Facts

TIME 

Just the facts, ma'am, just the facts. Bring back Dragnet.

 

18. How to Understand the Rage Economy

The Intercept · by Murtaza Hussain · February 13, 2021

An interesting concept, the "rage economy."

Excerpts:

The collective psychological impact of new technologies like social media has been written about in a wave of books over the past few years. Equally significant has been the underlying economic shift that has gradually transformed even traditional media outlets into something wholly different. Journalism traditionally relied on an advertising-based revenue model, and that economy also subtly incentivized a particular lens through which the world was depicted: an upbeat-as-possible, unifying worldview that made advertisers happy and promoted the needs of consumerism, even as it often overlooked or suppressed stories that fell outside its parameters.

When advertisers suddenly flocked to social media, the traditional economic model that underpinned the media and allowed even smaller papers to afford luxuries like foreign correspondents suddenly collapsed. Today established news outlets not only struggle to find advertisers after Facebook and Google swallowed up the market, but they must also compete with a seemingly infinite number of other websites, companies, and even individuals committing “acts of journalism” or just putting out entertainment, thus forcing them to battle for a finite slice of an attention economy that they cannot possibly corner.

 

19.  Dino Pick returns home after work in Washington, D.C. to clean up ‘ethical lapses’ in U.S. Special Operations.

https://www.montereycountyweekly.com/people/face_to_face/dino-pick-returns-home-after-work-in-washington-d-c-to-clean-up-ethical-lapses/article_9ef19d8e-665e-11eb-8a7a-aba95f73419c.html? – by Asaf Shalev – 8 February 2021

Well done, Dino.

 

 

"The United States has a strategy based on arithmetic. They question the computers, add and subtract, extract square roots, and then go into action. But arithmetical strategy doesn't work here. If it did, they would already have exterminated us with their airplanes."

- Gen Vo Nguyen Giap

 

"In order to win victory we must try our best to seal the eyes and the ears of the enemy, making him blind and deaf, and to create confusion in the minds of the enemy commanders, driving them insane." 

- Mao Tse-Tung, On The Protracted War (1938)

 

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. N. Korean nuclear issue a top priority for Biden administration: State Dept.

2. Fewer S. Korea-U.S. combined drills staged in 2020 amid pandemic: data

3. N. Korea's trade with China down 80 pct last year amid global pandemic

4. N. Korea ranks lowest in world democracy index last year: poll

5. Kim Jong-un at Lunar New Year's concert

6. Defectors, separated families pray for North Korean reunions on Lunar New Year

7.  New Life for the Third Network (north Korea)

8. Kim Jong Un orders officials to make COVID-19 policy 'top priority'

9. Biden’s NK human rights agenda could cause clash with Seoul

10. N.Korea sets 2021 program of 5-year economic plan

11. S. Korea to rein in intelligence service in bid for reconciliation

12. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Gold Mining After Three Die in Mine Collapse

13. Oldest Korean victim of Japan's wartime sexual slavery dies, reducing total surviving victims to 15

14. ‘My mother begged me not to go’: the Japanese women who married Koreans – and never saw their family again

15. Smile: A North Korean refugee's dream

 

1. N. Korean nuclear issue a top priority for Biden administration: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 13, 2021

For those who are impatient and think the apparent lack of action means it is a low priority. Give the administration a chance to do their review, coordinate with allies, and develop a new way ahead. My sense is I think they will try to provide nK the opportunity to negotiate and will be willing to engage at the working level but I am also pretty sure they will be unwilling to make premature concessions. They might lift sanctions but only in return for real substantive and verifiable action, and again there will be no premature lifting of sanctions. But it is also kind of temporarily moot because the regime may not be in a position to engage at all as it has to deal with the triple whammy of natural disasters, COVID, and sanctions. Paradoxically, lifting of sanctions will be the least beneficial action for north Korea because what is really hurting the people are the policy decisions by KJU to shut down the markets and cross border trade and all the draconian population and resources control measures the regime has implemented to exert maximum control over the population. Control over the population and internal stability may be the priority for the regime in the near term (but it is always a priority because the KJU fears teh Korean people even more than he fears the US).

I think we all expected a provocation as a gift to the new Biden administration. But what I am thinking is that because of KJU’s internal situation a provocation may not achieve the effects he desires. He might conduct a missile test as part of his normal blackmail diplomacy but that would mean pushing the US to negotiations and demanding sanctions relief in return for talks. That is the typical play in the playbook. But he cannot negotiate now. He certainly could not come to a summit and is not likely to allow working level negotiations. So conducting a provocation right now may not accomplish what he needs. I think when he has better control over the internal situation and is ready to negotiate we will see a return to blackmail diplomacy. I also think the presentation of new military capabilities in October and January may be his attempt at sending a "deterrence" message - e.g., "leave us alone for now." On the other hand he could decide to conduct a provocation at any time. This is the nature of the Korea problem. None of us can know for sure what KJU is thinking.

 

2. Fewer S. Korea-U.S. combined drills staged in 2020 amid pandemic: data

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 13, 2021

For all those who think we have stopped training in Korea. Yes, there has been a decline but there are also some important numbers.

Excerpts:

The two countries staged a total of 172 joint training sessions in South Korea last year, down from 191 in 2019.

By service branch, joint maneuvers between their armies tumbled to 29 times last year from 89 in 2019, and their marine corps' combined programs were carried out seven times in 2020, compared to 24 the previous year.

But their navies held 70 rounds of combined drills last year, up from 61 in 2019, and the figure for their air forces more than tripled from 17 to 66 over the year, according to the data.

 

3. N. Korea's trade with China down 80 pct last year amid global pandemic

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 12, 2021

Because KJU has made the deliberate policy decision to shut down trade in the name of COVID but with the intent to reduce market activity so the regime can impose greater control over the economy and the population.

 

4. N. Korea ranks lowest in world democracy index last year: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 13, 2021

I know this is "dog bites man" news. The big news is it has only been at the bottom for 16 straight years. What was the rating more than 16 years ago? Was it actually better? Which country was worse than north Korea?

 

5. Kim Jong-un at Lunar New Year's concert

en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · February 12, 2021

Recall the regime banned smoking. Of course, that does not apply to KJU (note him smoking in the photo).

 

6. Defectors, separated families pray for North Korean reunions on Lunar New Year

upi.com – by Thomas Maresca

Every holiday is painful for escapees and separated families.

 

7. New Life for the Third Network (north Korea)

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · February 11, 2021

The third network. Think about that. Every household wired to receive propaganda.  

Excerpts:

But recent escapees have said the system has fallen into disrepair. In many cases the signal is weak and difficult to listen to, if audible at all, they say.

Revitalization work will fall to the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, which manages the network. On January 30, state television showed ministry workers dutifully studying the account of Kim’s speech in the newspaper and pledging to follow through on his wishes.

How they plan to do this wasn’t explained. Electricity is still a scarce commodity, but the video footage of new houses indicates the third network is still a basic part of North Korean life.

 

8.  Kim Jong Un orders officials to make COVID-19 policy 'top priority'

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim

This action has two purposes and could have one major catastrophic effect. Obviously, preventing COVID 19 is a logical and top priority. At the same time, it provides the excuse to implement great population and resources control measures to exert great control over the people. But Kim's policies are making conditions potentially worse than during the Arduous march of the great famine of 1994-1996. We need to be observant for the indications and warnings that may point toward internal instability which could be. catastrophic for the regime.

 

9. Biden’s NK human rights agenda could cause clash with Seoul

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · February 10, 2021

This stems from the insufficient aligned strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. Since the Moon administration assumes the regime seeks peace and reconciliation, the Moon administration follows the conventional wisdom that it should avoid focus on human rights in order to engender positive responses to its initiatives from KJU. Yes there will be a clash over the views on how to address the crimes against humanity and human rights abuses perpetrated by KJU. But that will be fundamental because of our insufficiently aligned strategic assumptions. 

 

10. N.Korea sets 2021 program of 5-year economic plan

www3.nhk.or.jp

By objective analysis, have any 5 year plans implemented by communist/socialist countries ever been successful?

 

11.  S. Korea to rein in intelligence service in bid for reconciliation

asahi.com – by Yoshihio Makino – 12 February, 2021

Interesting historical analysis of the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) from Japan. Interestingly, my colleague Mathew Ha and I had a conversation with this author this week as he is writing a piece on the Biden administration north Korea policy and the impact of the north Korean problem on Japan.

 

12. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Gold Mining After Three Die in Mine Collapse

rfa.org

Note the subtitle. It says it all.

 

13. Oldest Korean victim of Japan's wartime sexual slavery dies, reducing total surviving victims to 15

The Korea Times · February 13, 2021

We should think about this poor woman and those who suffered like her.

 

14. ‘My mother begged me not to go’: the Japanese women who married Koreans – and never saw their family again

The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · February 13, 2021

Another tragic story of north Korean human rights abuses.

Excerpt:

Two of the five surviving women correspond with their Japanese families by letter; phone calls are an expensive luxury in North Korea, and email access is a privilege enjoyed only by the political elite in Pyongyang. The others, including Minakawa, have lost touch with their siblings. While Hayashi’s attempts to talk to the women’s relatives in Japan were politely refused, she hopes her portraits will cast light on a neglected chapter in Japanese history. “These women have been forgotten in Japan, partly because of international political tensions,” she says. “Unless their personal histories are documented now, their experiences will die with them.”

Now 77, Minakawa forms a mental picture of the country she left as a young woman whenever she looks out her window, over the ocean from her home in Wonsan. “I want to go to Japan one last time, if possible,” she says. “Every May, when the acacia flowers are in full bloom, I open the window and their fragrance wafts into my room. Every time that happens, I think of home.”

 

15.  Smile: A North Korean refugee's dream

The Korea Times · February 13, 2021

It is hard for us to understand the challenges that escapees have in integrating into the South.

Excerpts:

Recently my life mentor at FSI gave me a challenge ― he arranged for me to make phone calls to some of the organization's supporters. He made the supporters promise 1) to only use English with me 2) to make it a professional call, not chatting, as part of my training 3) to try to teach me at least one thing about English before we ended the call.

I struggled so much talking in English with two Americans and one lady from France. When I finished, my life mentor was in a meeting, so I wrote him a message: "WOW! I did it!" I am sure I made so many mistakes, but the supporters were so patient. I have more confidence that I can do it next time and that I can continue to learn. The important thing I am learning is to try, even if I am not sure, and to learn from the experiences.

I didn't go to school in North Korea, every day was a struggle for survival and to eat. Now in South Korea, I am not struggling for basic survival, but it has felt difficult at times.

I now feel that I have people around me who are with me so I can enjoy a good life here. The world now seems so beautiful to me, one day I hope I can show a big smile without anyone calling me a vampire.

 

 

"The United States has a strategy based on arithmetic. They question the computers, add and subtract, extract square roots, and then go into action. But arithmetical strategy doesn't work here. If it did, they would already have exterminated us with their airplanes."

- Gen Vo Nguyen Giap

 

"In order to win victory we must try our best to seal the eyes and the ears of the enemy, making him blind and deaf, and to create confusion in the minds of the enemy commanders, driving them insane." 

- Mao Tse-Tung, On The Protracted War (1938)

 

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Opinion | I’ve Studied Terrorism for Over 40 Years. Let’s Talk About What Comes Next.

2.  Pentagon Press Secretary and China Task Force Director Update Reporters on Department of Defense Operations

3.  White House urged to disclose virtual "visitors"

4. FDD | Xi Jinping’s Rise Is No Historical Accident

5. America's Spy-Busters Put Secret-Stealing Chinese 'Grad Students' Under the Microscope

6. What Will Be Biden's China Policy?

7. US and its allies should retaliate over China's BBC ban

8.  China Bars BBC Programs After British Ban on Chinese Broadcaster

9. The China model has come to America

10. Biden's Indo-Pacific team largest in National Security Council

11. Chinese Naval Aggression in the South China Sea - National Security Institute

12. Military's COVID vaccine refusal rate still 'a concern' to Secretary Austin

13. How to Think About Chinese-Owned Technology Platforms Operating in the United States

14. Lessons Learned at the Helm of the Department of the Navy

15. AQAP leader cites U.S. Capitol riot as evidence of America's supposed decline

16. Culture, Not Tech, Is Obstacle To JADC2: JAIC

17. The Long Hack: How China Exploited a U.S. Tech Supplier

18. Facebook Helped Government Identify Capitol Rioters From Photos

19. Hybrid and Psychological Geopolitical Warfare - Western Balkans Case Study | SOF News

20. In the South China Sea, it’s ‘meet the new boss, same as the old boss’

21. COVID Sparks Resurgence Of Islamic State Terrorists

22. Setting aside divisions, Myanmar's ethnic groups unite against coup

23. In Asia, Biden opts for strategic path blazed by Trump

 

1. Opinion | I’ve Studied Terrorism for Over 40 Years. Let’s Talk About What Comes Next.

The New York Times · by Martha Crenshaw · February 10, 2021

This should stir up some discussion and hopefully some critical thought.

 

2. Pentagon Press Secretary and China Task Force Director Update Reporters on Department of Defense Operations

defense.gov – 11 February, 2021

It will be interesting to follow the Chinese propaganda that this report and more importantly, this task force, will generate. 

It is interesting that they use Ely Ratner's think tank affiliation.

 

3. White House urged to disclose virtual "visitors"

Axios · by Lachlan Markay

Very interesting. COVID is really changing the governing environment in many ways.

 

4. FDD | Xi Jinping’s Rise Is No Historical Accident

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · February 11, 2021

 

5. America's Spy-Busters Put Secret-Stealing Chinese 'Grad Students' Under the Microscope

realclearinvestigations.com · by Richard Bernstein - February 11, 2021

Excerpts:

The prosecutions illustrate growing American alarm about Chinese technology theft, an important part of China’s effort to supplant the United States both as the dominant military power in Asia and as the world's leader in science and technology. Despite the publicity surrounding the American academics' arrests, U.S. officials and analysts say a particular concern is Chinese graduate school researchers with advanced backgrounds.

But this isn’t a simple story of a belligerent power’s intellectual larceny and espionage. It’s a more nuanced problem that the United States largely brought upon itself through its longstanding policy of engagement with China aimed at bringing it into the international fold. One result is a Chinese symbiosis with American universities that includes Chinese financial support for American schools and large subsidies from American taxpayers for both sensitive research and the visiting Chinese nationals who conduct it.

 

6. What Will Be Biden's China Policy?

english.chosun.com – by Victor Cha

Victor Cha provides some interesting insights.

Excerpts:

While it is just the beginning of the Biden presidency and a definitive policy has not yet been announced, I think there are some certainties. First, the era of "responsible stakeholder" is over. That is, the five-decade experiment dating back to Nixon's opening to China to bring it into the liberal international order has been deemed a failure. Two of former President Barack Obama's key Asia advisors Kurt Campbell and Ely Ratner, in fact, were among the first to convert from "engagers" to "strategic competitors." They declared that the policy of engagement failed because China took advantage of the liberal trading order, but never became politically open or contributed substantially to the public goods of the international system. On the contrary, from about 2008, China became more assertive in its foreign policy taking advantage of what it saw to be a weakened United States after the global financial crisis and protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Second, unlike Trump, President Joe Biden's team has much experience dealing with China. Campbell, the senior Asia coordinator at the White House, was author of the Obama "pivot" to Asia. His NSC Asia team includes Edgard Kagan, a foreign service officer with China expertise, and Laura Rosenberger, who had served both at the State Department and NSC working on China. Rosenberger and Kagan also worked on the Six Party talks negotiating team in 2005 so they know that issue well. Rumors are that Dan Krittenbrink a senior China specialist and ambassador to Vietnam will lead the Asia team at the State Department. There is no lack of expertise on China. And the tone of China policy under Biden will not have the sharp edges of Trump. This does not necessarily mean that policy will be softer, but the rhetoric will be less insulting and antagonistic even if the policies are as competitive.

 

7.  US and its allies should retaliate over China's BBC ban

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · February 11, 2021

Excerpts:

Building on his early efforts to consolidate Indo-Pacific partnerships, President Biden should draw a line in the sand.

The U.S. and its closest "Five Eyes" allies must not tolerate this injustice against truth and fairness. After all, it's clear that this might just be the start. The Global Times evinces as much when it quotes pro-regime Professor Li Haidong. Li says that "it is possible that China will take further retaliatory measures, depending on whether the BBC will correct its wrongs, and stop distorting issues such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Xinjiang. If not, China is likely to expel BBC journalists based in Chinese mainland." Li says that "if journalists fail to report real China, kicking them out is the right thing to do."

 

8. China Bars BBC Programs After British Ban on Chinese Broadcaster

The New York Times · February 11, 2021

 

9.  The China model has come to America

asiatimes.com · by More by Bruce Abramson · February 11, 2021

My belief: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions. 

That said, this essay goes way beyond that. It makes some very provocative assertions. 

 

10.  Biden's Indo-Pacific team largest in National Security Council

asia.nikkei.com – by Ken Moriyasu

Excerpts:

"Kurt Campbell's Indo-Pacific team will be the largest regional NSC directorate, a sign of how this NSC is prioritizing China and broader Indo-Pacific policy issues," NSC spokesperson Emily Horne told Nikkei Asia.

She added that "work on China expands into virtually every NSC directorate," meaning teams in charge of "technology and national security," "global health security and biodefense," "defense," "democracy and human rights," and "international economics" will all be involved in shaping China policy.

...

The Principals Committee, which national security adviser Sullivan chairs, comprises of the secretaries of state, treasury, defense, energy, homeland security, the attorney general, the director of the office of management and budget, the ambassador to the United Nations, the administrator of the United States Agency for International Development and the president's chief of staff.

The director of national intelligence, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of the CIA will attend in an advisory capacity.

"It's notable that there was no Steve Bannon equivalent like there was at the start of the Trump administration," Hass said, referring to former President Donald Trump's onetime campaign manager and later White House chief strategist, whose attendance at the NSC raised eyebrows among national security experts.

"That's important because in the Trump era, a lot of policy was driven by politics. What these memos are seeking to signal is that policy will be driven by objectives, good policy will lead to good politics rather than the other way around."

  

11. Chinese Naval Aggression in the South China Sea - National Security Institute

The 5 page memo can be downloaded here: https://www.flipsnack.com/nsigmu/south-china-sea-decision-memo-final/download-pdf.html

Chinese Naval Aggression in the South China Sea - National Security Institute

nationalsecurity.gmu.edu

 

12. Military's COVID vaccine refusal rate still 'a concern' to Secretary Austin

Washington Examiner · by Abraham Mahshie · February 11, 2021

I remained surprised at this. What will happen when contact tracing shows the virus was passed by people who refused to get vaccinated? Are they responsible for the decline in personnel readiness due to COVID outbreaks in units?

But this also is concerning vaccine refusal is a result of political beliefs and indoctrination through disinformation.

And as I have said, if the military has excess vaccine doses due to active duty personnel refusing to receive it there are plenty of retirees who would make sure the vaccine does not go to waste.

 

13. How to Think About Chinese-Owned Technology Platforms Operating in the United States

lawfareblog.com – by Gary Corn and Jack Goldsmith

The 16 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/research/docs/chinesetechplatforms_webreadypdf.pdf

Excerpts:

The new administration will need to respond to China’s growing tech sector, the spread of China-controlled platforms, and the increasing national security threats they entail. The administration will have to decide what to do about TikTok and WeChat. It also will need to establish a broader U.S. strategy for addressing the range of security risks (e.g., economic, national security, cybersecurity) and threats to civil liberties posed by the spread of China-developed and controlled technologies. 

Recognizing the evolving national-security aspects of Chinese technology and the attendant policy challenges, the Technology, Law & Security Program at American University Washington College of Law and the National Security, Technology, and Law Working Group at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University convened the working group mentioned above to produce the attached report. 

  

14. Lessons Learned at the Helm of the Department of the Navy

usni.org – by Thomas B. Modly - February 9, 2021

Hmmm....with a nod to David Letterman.

  

15. AQAP leader cites U.S. Capitol riot as evidence of America's supposed decline

longwarjournal.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · February 10, 2021

Excerpts:

The AQAP man further cites America’s racial and economic divide as evidence for his claims.

“Today, America takes the lion’s share of [the coronavirus] epidemic and comes at the top of the list of the perished, which has reached more than 400,000,” Batarfi says. “And whoever thinks that these disasters and adversities have nothing to do with the practices of America, certainly has no knowledge of the way of Allah on the oppressors and how Allah [punishes] them and then seizes them with a severe punishment.”

The video concludes with a clip of Osama bin Laden threatening America as footage of the 9/11 hijackings is shown on screen. This is followed by footage of operations by the “mujahideen in Afghanistan,” Shabaab in Somalia, jihadists in Syria and the Islamic Maghreb, as well as an image of Mohammed Saeed Alshamrani (Al-Shamrani). The clips shown are undoubtedly intended to underscore the idea that al Qaeda maintains a cohesive global network, despite the setbacks it has suffered. 

 

16. Culture, Not Tech, Is Obstacle To JADC2: JAIC

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Excerpts:

This education-first approach is part of what’s called “JAIC 2.0,” an evolution of the AI Center from its original focus on building its own AI to enabling other defense organizations to build them. Over the past two-and-a-half years, Tame said, “we’ve learned what the department actually needs is enabling services” most of all.

Under the JAIC 2.0 approach, the center plans to offer a set of technical tools, called the Joint Common Foundation, that will let defense organizations build their own AIso, JAIC will offer streamlined contracting mechanisms so defense organizations can hire companies to clean up their data and then test & evaluate their code.

That may sound basic. But, Tame said, “frankly, after two-and-a-half years of assessment of our department’s AI readiness, [we realized] these critical building blocks — that will enable us to get to the point of implementation of AI across the force in a really cohesive way — are not there yet.”

 

17. The Long Hack: How China Exploited a U.S. Tech Supplier

Bloomberg · by Jordan Robertson and Michael Riley

A very detailed report and over the head of lay people like me. But I am sure the cyber experts will study this report.

 

18. Facebook Helped Government Identify Capitol Rioters From Photos

Bloomberg · by Sarah Frier · February 11, 2021

Can we expect a mass exodus from Facebook based on this report?

 

19.  Hybrid and Psychological Geopolitical Warfare - Western Balkans Case Study | SOF News

sof.news · by Faruk Hadzic · February 11, 2021

Conclusion: Balkan nationalist and separatist ideas, which resurfaced with the former Yugoslavia’s break-up, should be reticent and transform within the EU borders. Montenegro and, in particular, B&H is vulnerable to destabilizing Russian influences, using a complicated social, political, and economic environment, a lack of strategic orientation, and divisions over NATO integration. As for China, Arab countries, and Israel, their influence in the Balkans remains limited, primarily – but not exclusively – to economic projects. However, these impacts will continue to grow unless more severe and concrete US and EU replace them. Further weakening or eventual disappearance of the EU perspective in the Balkans could lead to new attempts to establish “Greater Albania,” “Greater Croatia,” “Greater Serbia,” or even “Greater Ottoman Turkey” through violent border changes, which would unquestionably lead to new violence in the region. Thus, instead of democratizing, the 21st century has brought fragility to the Balkans. 

 

20.  An ‘Economic Article 5’ to Counter China

WSJ · by Jonas Parello-Plesner

And an "economic article 5" would have been useful to come to the defense of South Korea when China conducted economic warfare against it for the deployment of THAAD.

The Quad and Quad Plus should prioritize economic security because there will never be a NATO like combined military organization in Asia.

  

20. In the South China Sea, it’s ‘meet the new boss, same as the old boss’

Defense News · by David Larter · February 11, 2021

Excerpts:

But to date, national security-minded conservatives have welcomed the Biden team’s embrace of many of the Trump administration’s hardline China positions.

In his confirmation hearing, Blinken drew some distinctions between his views on the China relationship and the Trump administrations’ but largely said he agreed with many of the steps the previous White House took, including the recent declaration that China was engaged in genocide against the Uighur population in Xinjiang. The response seemed to catch Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, off guard.

“You do agree?” a seemingly surprised Graham asked, adding haltingly that “we’re on a good start here. So, this … Really, I … I just very much appreciate that.”

 

21. COVID Sparks Resurgence Of Islamic State Terrorists

eurasiareview.com · by UN News · February 11, 2021

 

22. Setting aside divisions, Myanmar's ethnic groups unite against coup

Reuters · by Reuters staff · February 11, 2021

 

23. In Asia, Biden opts for strategic path blazed by Trump

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Maybe we should consider the Trump administration as the fullback and lead blocker pushing US policy in Asia forward- it cleared the way for the quarterback and a new backfield to conduct some open field running in the Asian secondary as they move the ball with finesse toward the goal line of serving, protecting, and advancing US interests in the region and around the world.

 

 

“He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.” 

-George Orwell

 

"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first." 

- Mark Twain

 

 "If it takes a lot of words to say what you have in mind, give it more thought." 

- Dennis Roth

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. FM Chung, Blinken stress close cooperation for complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula

2. North Korea can change but won’t fall

3. N. Korean Foreign Minister Ri named politburo member

4. NGO urges withdrawal of Harvard professor's paper casting wartime sex enslavement as voluntary prostitution

5. Will Biden gov't benefit Korean tech suppliers?

6. North Korea closes most border bridges in North Hamgyong Province

7. The start of the honeymoon phase of the Sino-Korean relationship and America's response

8. Secretary Blinken’s Call with ROK Foreign Minister Chung

9. Strengthening Party Leadership in North Korea

10. New virus cases fall back on Lunar New Year's Day, post-holiday virus fight in focus (South Korea)

11.  Korean Lesson Number One for Joe Biden: ‘Maximum Pressure’ Is Over

12.  Report: North Korea ready to stage artillery exercises on Lunar New Year

13.  North Koreans in U.S., Britain express hope after leaving 'repressive state'

14. President Fires Gen. Singlaub as Korea Staff Chief (1977)

 

 

1. FM Chung, Blinken stress close cooperation for complete denuclearization of Korean Peninsula

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 12, 2021

This is my tweet to the SECSTATE's tweet about the meeting:

I hope you were able to address the flawed strategic assumptions upon which the Moon administration is basing its "peace at any cost" strategy. The Moon and Biden administrations must sufficiently align their assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

 

2. North Korea can change but won’t fall

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 10, 2021

I absolutely respect South Korean sovereignty and its right to conduct independent policy making. South Korea is not nor can it be seen as a US "puppet." However, alliance partners must have sufficient alignment of interests, values, and strategy which requires shared strategic assumptions. Otherwise, we do not have an alliance or it is only transactional. 

But what really irritates me about Moon Chung-in comments is the one about THAAD. He implies that the US somehow forced THAAD on Korea when in fact we could not deploy it without South Korean concurrence. More importantly, the deployment of THAAD provides a capability that not only protects US forces and Korean forces but all the Korean population against the very real missile threat from the north. That said how we handled Chinese economic warfare against South Korea was a major mistake. We should have assisted South Korea in defending against Chinese economic actions.

And in addition, he gets the description of OPCON transition wrong like most of the press and pundits. There is no "shifting" of control of local troops from US to Korea. The ROK/US Combined Forces Command will remain under the Military Committee.  

I mention these issues because we should take Moon Chung-in's advice and recommendations with a grain of salt.

Excerpts:

With all that, Moon preaches independent policymaking with an eye on the alliance.

“We are an independent sovereign state and we have our own national interests. When there is a clash of interest between Washington and Seoul we can say ‘no,’” he said. “But we are indebted to the US: The US saved us from North Korean invasion and our economic miracle was partly because of US support.”

Clashes of interest in recent years have included the stationing of a US missile defense system, THAAD, on Korean soil, triggering Chinese sanctions; a massive difference of opinion over the amount Seoul should pay to host US troops; and ongoing complexities before wartime operational control of local troops shifts from US to domestic command (“OPCON Transfer”).

That said, I truly wish he is right about President Moon here. I strongly believe there can be no successful outcome on the Korean peninsula for either South Korea or the US without the foundation of a rock solid ROK/US alliance. (and we need sufficient trilateral cooperation with Japan as well). And the most important thing Presidents Moon and Trump did was to NOT lift sanctions. To have done so would simply have reinforced the regime's political warfare strategy supported by blackmail diplomacy.

Excerpts:

Korea’s president, derided in some conservative circles on both sides of the Pacific as a hard-leftist or even a pro-North Korean, has cleaved to the US despite the pressures applied during the Trump administration.

This is visible in his maintenance of the bilateral alliance – despite the cost brouhaha – and in his refusing to breach sanctions on North Korea, despite his ardent wish to engage in cross-DMZ trade.

“I would say that Moon is a pro-American leader,” Moon said. “Preventing an outbreak of war is his number one priority and put very simply, maintaining a close alliance prevents war.”

Even so, there has been division among the president’s advisors.

“Some in the government have argued that we should enhance engagement with North Korea at the expense of the US alliance, but Moon has turned them down,” the academic said. “His major foreign policy has always been: ‘How can we promote cooperation with North Korea without necessarily undermining relations with the US?”

 

3.  N. Korean Foreign Minister Ri named politburo member

en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · February 12, 2021

Excerpt:  "State economic guidance organs should emerge from old-fashioned force of habit by which they used to put the blame on bad condition, complaining lack of authority, and take a hands-off approach towards the national economy and actively wage a campaign for overcoming economical difficulties and obstacles," KCNA said, citing the report on the meeting.

 

4. NGO urges withdrawal of Harvard professor's paper casting wartime sex enslavement as voluntary prostitution

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · February 12, 2021

 

5. Will Biden gov't benefit Korean tech suppliers?

The Korea Times – by Kim Bo-eun - February 12, 2021

 

6. North Korea closes most border bridges in North Hamgyong Province

dailynk.com – by Kim Yoo Jin - February 12, 2021

This is an indication of the intent of the regime: continue to crack down on trade - legal and illicit and control the economy, information, and the population to protect the regime. But without the safety valve of the markets the people's resilience is going to decline and there will be increased hardship and suffering. We really have to be observant for the indications and warnings of internal instability. The conditions are much different than they were in the 19990's during the Arduous March of the great famine. 

 

7. The start of the honeymoon phase of the Sino-Korean relationship and America's response

dailynk.com – by Jong Kyo Jin - February 11, 2021

This essay covers a lot of ground from the north Korean "trilateral front" to comparisons with the JCPOA negotiations to the Biden administration's multilateral approach and the Quad to Sung Kim's experience with north Korea to crisis management within the ROK/US Alliance.

Conclusion:

However, the Biden administration will not be as easily persuaded by North Korea’s words of seduction as the Moon government. Biden will also draw a clear line against South Korea on the matter of furthering the Singapore Agreement, whereas the Moon administration has argued for its continued implementation. Biden has a strong stance on the Singapore Agreement, which he criticized in no uncertain terms as a “vague promise” and “the sign of a weakening alliance.” At the time of the agreement, Biden referred to the vague wording of the Singapore Agreement, which mentioned the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula rather than that of North Korea, and also pointed out the wrongheadedness of unconditionally suspending joint military exercises. Biden expressed his grave concern on both of these two points at the time, and refused to recognize the agreement as a deal between the two leaders.

In this regard, Blinken is also expected to express deep regret over Moon’s remarks that suggested South Korea will discuss suspending joint military exercises with North Korea. Nor will he turn a blind eye to South Korea’s move toward China. Perhaps the strategy will take the form of a blockade, or he might take stronger measures in the form of more sanctions. The methods are varied, and the US will be seeking tangible results. This has the potential to cause adverse effects, not only in terms of diplomacy and security, but also for the economy. It is a boomerang that has backfired on the Moon administration, which has lost its sense of reality. The measures of the new US government may be even more severe than the Trump administration. While the Moon administration dreams of romance with North Korea and China, it may very well end up as a scandalous affair.

 

8. Secretary Blinken’s Call with ROK Foreign Minister Chung

state.gov · by Office of the Spokesperson

Short summary. It looks like we will continue to use the phrase "free and open INDOPACIFIC."

 

9. Strengthening Party Leadership in North Korea

thediplomat.com – by Atsuhito Isozaki - February 11, 2021

To borrow from the 1992 US presidential election: "It's the party, stupid." The Party is the regime's action arm, not the government. The party controls the bureaucracy and the military.

Excerpts:

If North Korea is to achieve economic growth it needs sanctions to be lifted. For this to happen, progress in negotiations with the U.S. is vital. However, the change of administration in the U.S. means the road ahead will be hard, which is why “self-reliance” is being promoted as key to economic recovery. Having already factored in the possibility of prolonged sanctions, North Korea now hopes to be able to run its economy under its own steam. “Self-reliance” is a slogan from the Kim Il Sung era, but originates with Mao Zedong. The newly proposed five-year plan is also highly realistic, unlike Kim Il Sung’s “catch up to and surpass Japan” and Kim Jong Il’s goal of creating a “Strong and Prosperous Nation.”

Kim Jong Un positioned the U.S. as the “biggest enemy” and ordered his party to “strengthen the national defense.” Specific reference to military goals such as the development of nuclear submarines and missiles with a range of 15,000 km was undoubtedly motivated by a desire to attract the attention of the new Biden administration. If North Korea simply wished to develop weapons, then it would be better to do so in secret rather than announce it publicly.

 

10. New virus cases fall back on Lunar New Year's Day, post-holiday virus fight in focus (South Korea)

en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · February 12, 2021

Excerpts:

There were 19 cases from overseas, raising the total number of imported cases to 6,659.

Of the newly imported cases, seven were from the United States, followed by Jordan and Pakistan with two each.

The country added 11 fatalities, upping the virus death toll to 1,507. The fatality rate was 1.82 percent.

The number of seriously or critically ill COVID-19 patients came to 161, down nine from a day earlier.

The total number of people released from quarantine after making full recoveries was 72,936, up 298 from a day earlier, with 8,394 people being isolated for COVID-19 treatment, up 94 from a day ago.

 

11. Korean Lesson Number One for Joe Biden: ‘Maximum Pressure’ Is Over

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · February 11, 2021

Okay, if you want to have a combination of pressure and engagement let's then execute a superior form of political warfare with a long term objective of achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests in the region and on the peninsula.

But Mr. Bandow misses the point of sanctions and pressure. We should be under no illusion that sanctions and pressure will cause denuclearization and democratization. It will take a much more sophisticated form of a political warfare strategy to achieve those objectives.

The bottom line is the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK). Until we understand and accept that we will be not be able to develop a comprehensive long term integrated alliance strategy.

 

12. Report: North Korea ready to stage artillery exercises on Lunar New Year

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim – 11 February 2021

Artillery is probably the nKPA's most important conventional weapon. Why is all the focus and criticism on ROK/US combined training while no one objects to the north's aggressive annual training that will bring nKPA pofrces to their highest state of readiness by the end of March?

 

13. North Koreans in U.S., Britain express hope after leaving 'repressive state'

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim – 11 February 2021

Can escapees from north Korea breathe new life into democracies where they reside? We will need a lot more escapees to do that. But we should be inspired by them and pledge to work hard to protect and advance the democracies we have come to take for granted.

This is a key point that we must understand. The Korean people in the north do not know they have human rights that have been taken away (or never have been allowed to have). The 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry recognized that the Korean people in the north must be informed and educated about their human rights and this is why the international community and especially South Korea (with support of the US) has a responsibility to try to get information to the Korean people inside north Korea.

Consider this powerful and important statement: "Human dignity, freedom, these were values I did not know in North Korea," Park said. "That's why I was at the receiving end of rights abuses."

 

14.  President Fires Gen. Singlaub as Korea Staff Chief (1977)

The Washington Post · by Austin Scott · May 22, 1977

For some reason this turned up in my news feed today. It is from 1977. A useful historical reminder. Every serving US general officer in Korea should ask themselves if they can be a Jack Singlaub. This incident should have more study in PME. Was it correct for him to speak out publicly? Would resigning in protest have achieved the same effect or not? Did one interview with the Washington Post, and a specific statement about the threat of war, change the course of US military presence in Korea?

It is interesting to recall that the recommendation was that he be retained and reassigned. Of course, he decided to retire.

 

 

“He who controls the past, controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.” 

-George Orwell

 

"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first." 

- Mark Twain

 

 "If it takes a lot of words to say what you have in mind, give it more thought." 

- Dennis Roth