News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. US foreign, defense chiefs may visit Seoul this month: sources

2. Reports: U.S., South Korea to commence scaled-down military exercises

3. 'Robust' N. Korea sanctions needed to prevent nuclear proliferation: defense nominee

4. U.S. defense chief shortlists N. Korea as 'nation-state threat'

5. N. Korea again ranks lowest in terms of economic freedom: think tank

6. Report: North Korean delegation seeking imports visited Chinese city

7. N.K. leader sets agriculture as 'primary economic task' for local party officials

8. Declaration: Former South Korean Diplomats Call for Freedom, ROK-US Alliance, Human Rights for Defectors, Adherence to UN Sanctions, Improving Relations with Japan, Abolishing China’s 3 Nos

9. Biden must learn from Trump’s mistakes on North Korea

10. A Korean critique of the White House's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.

 

1. US foreign, defense chiefs may visit Seoul this month: sources

The Korea Times · March 5, 2021

A positive step forward for the alliance. A "2+2" meeting is significant, especially this early in the new administration's tenure. I wonder if they will be briefing the administration's new Korea policy or if they are going to coordinate the policy and get senior level input to the policy? Note also the report of travel to Japan. And hopefully they will announce a conclusion to the SMA negotiations. And we should keep in mind even if they announce an agreement it still must be approved by the Korean national assembly.

 

2. Reports: U.S., South Korea to commence scaled-down military exercises

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · March 5, 2021

For nearly three years (since President Trump's unilateral and surprise announcement in Singapore that he wanted to cancel exercises) we have cancelled, postponed, and scaled back combined training. Yet there has been no reciprocity from the north in any area and in fact as we read this article the north is nearly reaching the culmination of its annual winter training cycle and will have brought the nKPA to the highest state of readiness at the optimal attack time (March).

We should not forget that the regime focuses on cancelling exercises for one reason: to split the ROK/US alliance and get US forces off the Korean peninsula so that it can execute its long term strategy to dominate the peninsula. Ending training means readiness cannot be sustained and therefore US forces will not be able to remain on the peninsula (Confucius: "To lead an untrained people to war is to throw them away").  

This will not satisfy the regime.

 

3. 'Robust' N. Korea sanctions needed to prevent nuclear proliferation: defense nominee

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 5, 2021

Another aspect of the Biden Korea policy is foreshadowed by the USD(P) nominee, Colin Kahl.

Some very good words on the alliance:

“Kahl said U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan provide a powerful deterrent to North Korean threats.

"If confirmed, I will look to ensure that U.S. forces have what they need to maintain our robust deterrent and readiness posture in Northeast Asia, in close collaboration with our regional allies," he said.

The nominee noted the outcome of the global defense posture review has yet to come, but said, "Our force posture in South Korea ensures our ability to "fight tonight" alongside our ROK allies, and it is critical to regional stability," referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

He added, "The U.S.- Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance is critical not only to the security of the ROK, but also to the stability of the Indo-Pacific region — the Department's priority theater."

 

4. U.S. defense chief shortlists N. Korea as 'nation-state threat'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 5, 2021

We are seeing hints of the new Biden administration Korea policy in the statements from our senior leaders.

 

5. N. Korea again ranks lowest in terms of economic freedom: think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 5, 2021

Economic and all forms of freedom.

 

6. Report: North Korean delegation seeking imports visited Chinese city

UPI · by Elizabteh Shim · March 4, 2021

The regime has to try to get its economy working and it cannot do that without China.

 

7. N.K. leader sets agriculture as 'primary economic task' for local party officials

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 5, 2021

Nuclear weapons do not feed the Korean people in the north.

 

8. Declaration: Former South Korean Diplomats Call for Freedom, ROK-US Alliance, Human Rights for Defectors, Adherence to UN Sanctions, Improving Relations with Japan, Abolishing China’s 3 Nos

East Asia Research · by 이원주 · March 4, 2021

 

9. Biden must learn from Trump’s mistakes on North Korea

spectator.us

If Trump had agreed to the "deal" in Hanoi we would not be criticizing that because it would have played right into Kim Jong-un's hands. He would have deemed his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy successful and would have doubled down. The Biden administration would be going into its policy review with little to no leverage.

There is one lesson we should all keep in mind. Appeasement of the regime does not work and will only result in further blackmail diplomacy.

Conclusion:

“The longer Washington waits to develop any policy towards Pyongyang, the more time in the hands of Pyongyang to bolster its weaponized nuclear capabilities, and continue its egregious human rights violations on its citizens.

As the US and South Korea prepare to conduct their annual military exercises next week — which has been a core target of North Korean criticism from the rule of Kim Il-sung — it’s important to remember that negotiations require actions on both sides. While the Biden administration’s policies towards the DPRK remain shrouded in secrecy, a continued approach of sanctions and pressure without any form of dialogue won’t help. Instead, this approach risks marooning the international community in a never-ending quandary of how to resolve the North Korean issue; nuclear and beyond.

It was once said that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, but moving forward with a nuclear North Korea, a ‘small deal’ approach may be the best we can hope for. If it results in the concession — albeit paltry — of Yongbyon, or otherwise, it still marks progress which is otherwise non-existent. To go into any dialogue with denuclearization as the starting point — rather than one possible, if rare, objective — would be a flaw on the part of the US and its allies.

As Trump made explicit in Hanoi, ‘sometimes you have to walk’. Two years on from Trump’s North Korea summit, we must face the pessimistic reality that North Korea is not walking away from its nuclear weapons any time soon.”

 

10. A Korean critique of the White House's Interim National Security Strategic Guidance.

donga.com

Conclusion:

“What differentiates the Biden administration from its predecessor is how it carries out its policy. The Trump administration is characterized by one-off events full of political showmanship or unilateral approach such as tariff bombshells. It makes a stubbornly unilateral start and forces the rest to come with it. By contrast, the first thing that the Biden administration does is to group friends and foes and form a scrum to make others feel pressured to follow. Being sandwiched between Washington and Beijing, Seoul has until now been reluctant to decide whose side to take while peeping others to figure out the mainstream. Indeed, all such circumstantial changes test Seoul's competence in foreign policy. The last thing that Seoul wants to happen is to stay in a reluctant status and let someone else maneuver where it is headed. South Korea does not have any extra time to spend being stuck in indecisiveness when it restores its relationship with Japan or joins the Indo-Pacific Strategy.”

We are not supposed to be swayed by external forces in diplomacy

 

 

----------

 

“Look at everything as though you are seeing it either for the first or last time, then your time on earth will be filled with glory.” 

- Betty Smith

 

“Above all, do not lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to a point that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others.”

- Fyodor Dostoevsky

 

“There is nothing outside of yourself that can ever enable you to get better, stronger, richer, quicker, or smarter. Everything is within. Everything exists. Seek nothing outside of yourself.”

- Miyamoto Musashi, The Book of Five Rings

SOF News Monthly Journal – Feb 2021

Download the 60 page PDF HERE

Catch up on the news about special operations from the past month by reading the February 2021 issue of the SOF News Monthly Journal. A series of articles about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world.

Feature Articles:

Desert Storm – 30 Years Ago the Gulf War Ended
Desert Storm – SOF Scud Hunting Mission in Iraq
Desert Storm – SF Team Fights for Survival Behind Enemy Lines
Spirit -3 – Downed AC-130H During Desert Storm
Naval SOF Exercise in Mediterranean Sea
Inspector General Report on Operations Inherent Resolve
SOCSOUTH has a Space Force Guardian
Civil Affairs, ADAPT, and “Soft Power”
Yemen: U.S. Pulling Support
Book Review: “When the Tempest Gathers”
Video – SOF Center for Medical Integration and Development
New: House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations
Afghanistan Conflict Update
Afghanistan Study Group Final Report

Departments:

Curated SOF News
International SOF
ARSOF, MARSOC, NSW, AFSOC New
SOF History
Things That Keep SOF PAOs Busy
SOF and Great Power Competition
Information Operations
Commentary
Books, Pubs, and Reports Related to SOF
Videos, Movies, and Podcasts Related to SOF

SOF News Monthly Journal
February 2021
PDF, 60 pages

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea poses 'most immediate threat' to U.S.: Indo-Pacific commander

2. Korea, U.S. closely monitoring N.K. nuclear facilities: defense ministry

3. N. Korea’s nuclear reprocessing will increase tension with US

4. U.S., Korea Finally on Course for Defense Cost-Sharing Deal

5.  Biden says will empower diplomats to reduce threat from N. Korea

6. Photos show North Korea may be trying to extract plutonium

7. North Korea expected to resume trade at China border, research says

8.  N.Korean Regime to Ban Open-Air Markets

9. North Koreans 'starving' due to tough Covid measures in country 'with zero cases'

10. North Korean Military Exploits Pandemic to Cash-in on Face Masks

11. North Korean Quarantine Police Shake Down Residents for Bribes and Food

12. Blinken lays out 'most urgent' priorities for U.S., leaves out N. Korea

13. U.S. must use every tool to prevent N. Korea from advancing nuclear capability: Sherman

14. Two-star Army general relieved of command over N.K. man's border crossing

15. Analysis: Biden faces calls to jumpstart North Korea talks with more pragmatic goals

16. After someone snuck in from China, North Korea locks down Hyesan for a month

17. Achieving North Korean Denuclearization With More Draconian Sanctions: We Don’t Have the Cards

18. Inside South Korea’s Plan to Use AI to Track North Korea

19. North Korea is the most isolated country on the planet, but it still finds ways to steal billions of dollars

20. North Korea’s New Must-Read? Kim Jong Un’s New Biography

 

1. N. Korea poses 'most immediate threat' to U.S.: Indo-Pacific commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 4, 2021

I asked this question about OPCON transition:

One of the deficiencies of the OPCON transition process has been the lack of an information campaign to educate and inform the Korean and American people about the importance of the transition.

How would you explain to the American and Korean people why the OPCON transition of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command is important to the security of the ROK and the national security interests of the U.S.?  

This was the response:

“With regard to the planned transfer of the wartime operation control of South Korean troops to Seoul, the Indo-Pacific commander said the transition will take place when all conditions agreed by the allies are fully met.

"The conditions basis for a transfer of operational control (that) has been agreed to by our two nations ... in my view is absolutely necessary to ensure the security of our two nations," he said.

 

2.  Korea, U.S. closely monitoring N.K. nuclear facilities: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 4, 2021

The regime is masterful at deception and it knows the capabilities of commercial satellite imagery and probably has a good general idea of US military and intelligence satellite imagery capabilities. We should consider when we observe something at these locations the regime may want us to see specific activities and draw certain conclusions. We should always consider what it is we are not seeing. On the other hand, continued construction and activity at these sites is further indication that the regime has no intention of giving up its nuclear program.

 

3. N. Korea’s nuclear reprocessing will increase tension with US

donga.com · March 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“Rear Adm. Michael Studeman saw Pyongyang's preparations for nuclear reprocessing as its first step taken to show influence over the Biden administration and get its attention. As per his analysis, North Korea may use the issue of nuclear reprocessing as a bargaining chip to lead to the lessening of North Korea sanctions.

The U.S. State Department commented on the IAEA's report, saying that North Korea's illegal nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its stubbornness of spreading cutting-edge technologies pose a severe threat to international peace and security and weaken the globally agreed non-proliferation system. The U.S. administration will adopt an effective option in cooperation with its allies and partners to assess the gravity of North Korean threats and respond accordingly, the U.S. State Department's spokesperson team told VOA on Tuesday.”

 

4. U.S., Korea Finally on Course for Defense Cost-Sharing Deal

english.chosun.com · March 4, 2021

I hope we can get this done soon. And like OPCON transition, I hope the action officers have proposed an information plan to tell the American and Korean press, pundits, politicos, and public why this is good for the people in both nations.

We also need to get in mind this must be approved by the Korean national assembly.

 

5. Biden says will empower diplomats to reduce threat from N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 4, 2021

This is a summary of what I think the new administration policy will be based on the President's Yonhap special contribution on October 30,2020:

A strong ROK/US Alliance based shared interests, values, and strategy that can deter war; principled diplomacy as the main effort, with an objective of denuclearization of the north, a focus on human rights (the separated Korean Americans is a recognition of one of the many human rights challenges with North Korea), and the only political outcome that can solve the entire Korean problem: unification.

As you can see other than military deterrence our diplomats are the main effort in everyone of these five major areas for US policy (and of course our diplomats are key to deterrence as well with messaging etc.)

 

6. Photos show North Korea may be trying to extract plutonium

AP · by Hyung -Jin Kim · March 4, 2021

Excerpts:

“Earlier this week, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said some nuclear facilities in North Korea continued to operate, citing the operation of the steam plant that serves the radiochemical laboratory at Yongbyon. The laboratory is a facility where plutonium is extracted by reprocessing spent fuel rods removed from reactors.

“The DPRK’s nuclear activities remain a cause for serious concern. The continuation of the DPRK’s nuclear program is a clear violation of relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and is deeply regrettable,” Grossi told the IAEA’s board of governors, according to IAEA’s website. DPRK refers to North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Plutonium is one of the two key ingredients to build nuclear weapons along with highly enriched uranium. The Yongbyon complex, north of the capital city of Pyongyang, has facilities to produce both ingredients. It’s not clear exactly how much weapons-grade plutonium or highly enriched uranium has been produced at Yonbyong and where North Korea stores it.

 

7. North Korea expected to resume trade at China border, research says

UPI · by Elizabeth Shim · March 3, 2021

The buried lede: KEIP and South Korea are trying to spin the 8th Party Congress in a positive light:

 

8. N.Korean Regime to Ban Open-Air Markets

english.chosun.com · March 4, 2021

Market activity and the nascent capitalism that has flourished since the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996 has been responsible for the resiliency of the Korean people in the north. Yet they pose an existential threat to the regime. This is the reason why. The regime has taken advantage of COVID 19 and cracked down on not only markets but the use of foreign currency, movement, and information dissemination. 

I love this quote: "But now the crackpot country's finances are close to collapse and he seems determined to turn the clock back and hold on to power by Draconian means."

 

9. North Koreans 'starving' due to tough Covid measures in country 'with zero cases'

Mirror · by Laura Sharman · March 3, 2021

This is the deliberate policy decision by Kim Jong-un that is causing the suffering of the Korean people living in the north:

 

10. North Korean Military Exploits Pandemic to Cash-in on Face Masks

rfa.org · by Hyemin Son

Every institution in north Korea is corrupt. This is just one small example.

 

11. North Korean Quarantine Police Shake Down Residents for Bribes and Food

rfa.org · by Jieun Kim

More indications of north Korean corruption.

 

12. Blinken lays out 'most urgent' priorities for U.S., leaves out N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 4, 2021

I think the press missed the point of the speech but of course the Korean press wanted more emphasis on Korea and the apparent lack of emphasis is taken as a slight.

The headline writer got it wrong and the headline conflicts with the actual text of the article. north Korea was not left out.

But the SECSTATE did not leave out north Korea. It was appropriately mentioned given the type of speech this was designed to be.

 

13. U.S. must use every tool to prevent N. Korea from advancing nuclear capability: Sherman

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 4, 2021

Every, I say again, every, tool.

Here are some of the tools we propose:

• Develop an alliance strategy for the Korean Peninsula (ensure sufficient alignment of ROK/US strategic assumptions).
• Impose a “maximum pressure 2.0” ”Plan B” campaign integrating not only sanctions but also other critical levers of U.S. and allied power. (most critically information and influence)
• Make human rights a priority.
• Despite past failures, continue efforts to establish a substantive working-level dialogue between the United States and North Korea.
• Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support.
• Strengthen allied military posture.
• Stabilize the Special Measures Agreement (cost sharing) process.
• Coordinate a comprehensive strategy for North Korean cyber-attacks.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2021/01/14/north-korea/ 

 

14. Two-star Army general relieved of command over N.K. man's border crossing

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · March 4, 2021

Yes, leaders must be held accountable for all the unit does or fails to do. But there are problems that are caused by even higher levels of command and in this case political levels vis a vis the lack of emphasis on the "threat" from the north, among others.

 

15. Analysis: Biden faces calls to jumpstart North Korea talks with more pragmatic goals

Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 4, 2021

Kim Jong-un wants arms control negotiations because it means he will keep his nuclear program and in his mind he will be negotiating as an "equal" with the US.

 

16. After someone snuck in from China, North Korea locks down Hyesan for a month

dailynk.com· by Ha Yoon Ah · March 4, 2021

Interesting: "once lived in South Korea." Was this a returning escapee? Or was this an intelligence operative? Or was this a "broker" who is aiding escapees? Or was tis a missionary trying to bring the word to the Korean people living in the north?

I fear for him since he is being "interrogated."

 

17. Achieving North Korean Denuclearization With More Draconian Sanctions: We Don’t Have the Cards

38north.org · by Joseph DeThomas · March 3, 2021

Sigh...

 

18. Inside South Korea’s Plan to Use AI to Track North Korea

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · March 2, 2021

A lot to parse form this article: from intelligence analysis to negotiations to unification.

 

19. North Korea is the most isolated country on the planet, but it still finds ways to steal billions of dollars

Business Insider · by Ellen Ioanes

The all purpose sword.

 

20. North Korea’s New Must-Read? Kim Jong Un’s New Biography

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

I will be closely watching the NY Times bestseller list to see when this makes it to number one.

The only way this will boost morale is if the 600+ pages can be used for fire starting purposes (of course burning this book would be deemed a capital crime in north Korea).

North Korea’s New Must-Read? Kim Jong Un’s New Biography

Regime aims to boost morale with first official book on leader as country struggles with severe economic downturn

 

-----------

 

"I firmly believe that democracy holds the key to freedom, prosperity, peace, and dignity. We must now demonstrate — with a clarity that dispels any doubt — that democracy can still deliver for our people and for people around the world. We must prove that our model isn’t a relic of history; it’s the single best way to realize the promise of our future. And, if we work together with our democratic partners, with strength and confidence, we will meet every challenge and outpace every challenger."

- President Joseph R. Biden (Interim National security Strategic Guidance)

 

"Arguments cannot be answered by personal abuse; there is no logic in slander, and falsehood, in the long run, defeats itself." 

- Robert Green Ingersoll

 

“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.” 

- Marcus Aurelius

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. A Foreign Policy for the American People

2. Interim National Security Strategic Guidance

3. Why Biden’s new China czar requires comprehensive policy authorities

4. Lawmakers propose check on Biden’s war powers

5. Joe Biden's National Security Idealism Is a Problem

6. Biden Secretly Limits Counterterrorism Drone Strikes Away From War Zones

7. Boycott the Olympics? Cancel the Saudis? How Woke Can Biden Really Get?

8. China’s domestic-security agencies are undergoing a massive purge

9. China Is Not the Soviet Union: Applying Kennan’s ‘Long Telegram’

10. US dropped to bottom half of 'free' nations in new rankings from Freedom House

11. TikTok Played a Key Role in MAGA Radicalization

12. British Navy Pushes into Pacific, Gives Royal Marines More Commando Missions

13. Senate Armed Services Stands By Afghanistan & Taiwan

14. China's Three Information Warfares

15. Rare Truths About China’s Rare Earths

16. 1619, 1776, and Us

 

1. A Foreign Policy for the American People

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

It is critical that the administration explains how our foreign policy positively affects the American people.

Excerpts:

“We will balance humility with confidence. I have always believed they should be the flip sides of America’s leadership coin. Humility because we aren’t perfect, we don’t have all the answers, and a lot of the world’s problems aren’t mainly about us, even as they affect us. But confidence because America at its best has a greater ability than any country on Earth to mobilize others for the common good and for the good of our people.

Above all, we’ll hold ourselves accountable to a single, overarching measure of success: Are we delivering results for you?”

As an aside, there are critics (namely NK News), among pundits that north Korea was omitted from or insufficiently emphasized in this major foreign policy speech. But this is a "how-to'' speech for broad diplomatic actions and not a description of approaches to every threat. Regional specialists should not be put off if their pet agenda issue is not sufficiently address. In the case of Korea we should wait for the completion of the policy review which probably will warrant a speech by. SECSTATE solely on that topic.

But Korea and the other major threats were mentioned and I think sufficiently so in this kind of a speech:

And eighth, we will manage the biggest geopolitical test of the 21st century: our relationship with China.

Several countries present us with serious challenges, including Russia, Iran, North Korea. And there are serious crises we have to deal with, including in Yemen, Ethiopia, and Burma.

But the challenge posed by China is different. China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to seriously challenge the stable and open international system – all the rules, values, and relationships that make the world work the way we want it to, because it ultimately serves the interests and reflects the values of the American people.

 

2. Interim National Security Strategic Guidance

Today, the Administration released the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, attached.

This interim guidance has been issued to convey President Biden’s vision for how America will engage with the world, and to provide guidance for departments and agencies to align their actions as the Administration begins work on a National Security Strategy.

The 24 page document can be downloaded here.  

Note this key sentence that I have never seen in an NSS document: "We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions."

Korea is mentioned four brief times.

 

3. Why Biden’s new China czar requires comprehensive policy authorities

Defense News · by Matthew R. Crouch and Christopher P. Mulder · March 3, 2021

What kind of authorities can an NSC staffer who is not in a Senate confirmed position have?

Excerpts:

“Since the pivot to the Pacific almost 10 years ago, the U.S. government’s response has been loosely coordinated and, while broadly focused on competition, has not been implemented holistically. The China czar will be most effective in achieving U.S. goals over the next four years if he sets out to accomplish the following.

...

The appointment of the China Czar is an important step in ensuring the U.S. response to the PRC is effective. Long-standing China experts being brought into the administration in key roles demonstrates an understanding of a need for a comprehensive and lasting strategy. The critical last step to managing competition with China effectively is to ensure close coordination between those within the U.S. government and external allies and partners. Early signs are positive this is occurring.

Allowing the China czar to play the role of key policy integrator can both drive policy toward clear goals and provide priorities for implementation.”

 

4. Lawmakers propose check on Biden’s war powers

Defense News · by Joe Gould · March 3, 2021

Doesn't the Constitution provide a sufficient check on this? Isn't the problem that Congress has abdicated its responsibilities (perhaps since WWII)?

 

5. Joe Biden's National Security Idealism Is a Problem

19fortyfive.com · by ByRobert Moore · March 3, 2021

A strong critique:

“And like many of these idealistic theories about maintaining the world order and forever defeating all forms of evil, they have not proven to be attainable nor necessary for protecting our vital national interests. On the contrary, they have kept us mired in hostilities chasing elusive dreams about developing good governance and introduced us into conflicts in places like Libya and Syria, where our push to topple authoritarians created new opportunities for extremism and proliferated humanitarian disasters.

The Biden administration is still in its first weeks and has time to set a better course for American national security, based on a realistic assessment of our security needs and what U.S. citizens require of their government – not what we think the world requires from us.”

 

6. Biden Secretly Limits Counterterrorism Drone Strikes Away From War Zones

The New York Times · by Charlie Savage and Eric Schmitt · March 3, 2021

Possibly a significant change to CT operations.

Excerpts:

“Since Mr. Biden took office, the ensuing interagency review has been primarily overseen by Elizabeth D. Sherwood-Randall, his homeland security adviser, and Clare Linkins, the senior director for counterterrorism on the National Security Council.

The Biden team is also weighing whether to restore an Obama-era order that had required the government to annually disclose estimates of how many suspected terrorists and civilian bystanders it had killed in airstrikes outside war zones. Mr. Obama invoked that requirement in 2016, but Mr. Trump removed it in 2019. The military separately publishes some information about its strikes in places like Somalia, but the C.I.A. does not.

While The New York Times reported on Mr. Trump’s replacement rules in 2017, the Trump administration never released its drone policy or publicly discussed the parameters and principles that framed it, noted Luke Hartig, who worked as a top counterterrorism aide in Mr. Obama’s White House.

Asserting that there was good reason to believe the government did not publicly acknowledge the full range of strikes carried out under Mr. Trump, Mr. Hartig said it was appropriate for the Biden team to gather more information about that period before deciding whether and how to change the system that governed it.

“There is a lot the administration needs to do to reinstate higher standards after the Trump administration, but they shouldn’t just snap back to the Obama rules,” he said. “The world has changed. The counterterrorism fight has evolved.”

 

7. Boycott the Olympics? Cancel the Saudis? How Woke Can Biden Really Get?

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron · March 3, 2021

Yes, a clickbait title.

 

8. China’s domestic-security agencies are undergoing a massive purge

The Economist· March 1, 2021

Can Xi purge the corrupt ranks?

 

9. China Is Not the Soviet Union: Applying Kennan’s ‘Long Telegram’

The National Interest · by Paul Heer · March 1, 2021

Conclusion (which we should heed):

“Like his first recommendation, Kennan’s second applies more today than it did in 1946: “Much depends on the health and vigor of our own society. . . . Every courageous and incisive measure to solve the internal problems of our own society, to improve the self-confidence, discipline, morale and community spirit of our own people, is a diplomatic victory over Moscow.” And so will they be against Beijing.”

 

10. US dropped to bottom half of 'free' nations in new rankings from Freedom House

americanmilitarynews.com · by Ryan Morgan · March 3, 2021

Ouch.

Excerpts:

“Out of 195 countries and 15 territories surveyed, 83 earned “free rankings” with 59 of those having higher freedom scores than the U.S. The U.S. tied four other countries with scores of 83 and 20 countries.”

 

11.  TikTok Played a Key Role in MAGA Radicalization

Wired · by Cameron Hickey

Hmmm.. I am surprised by this. I did not think TikTok was an effective platform for this kind of disinformation.

Excerpts:

“We’ve also been monitoring TikTok for the past two years, as it grew from an entertaining novelty into a significant player capturing online attention share. Practical jokes and dance memes might be the dominant content, but just below the surface lurks a darker current infused with violence and hate that mirrors what we see on Parler, except here it has a much wider committed following. While Parler prided itself on having little to no moderation, TikTok has moved aggressively to enforce community guidelines and take down content. Still, a large and growing segment of the platform creates and shares problematic messages that risk radicalizing users. Many of these videos fall into a gray area that makes them difficult for moderation to address.

To understand this challenge, let me give you a brief tour of conservative memes on TikTok.”

 

12. British Navy Pushes into Pacific, Gives Royal Marines More Commando Missions

americandefensenews.com · by Paul Crespo

 

13. Senate Armed Services Stands By Afghanistan & Taiwan

breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.

Excerpts:

“Afghan troops have borne the brunt of the fighting and dying for years, McMaster said – “about 30 Afghan soldiers die every day” – but they will need US backup for a long time. The sustainable solution? “What it looks like is… a very small US force, a sustained commitment there with allies and partners,” he said. “If [instead] we withdraw our support prematurely and create opportunities for the Taliban, we have essentially partnered with the Taliban against the Afghan government,” creating the possibility of a “colossal” humanitarian disaster.

“Oh, I totally agree with that,” Shaheen said, adding that women and girls will suffer worst should the Taliban take power.

McMaster also got a receptive response when he urged the US to stand by Taiwan. Pressed by Republican Tom Cotton, McMaster said Washington doesn’t need to officially abandon its policy of “strategy ambiguity” on whether it would come to the island’s defense against China – not as long as it sticks by the longstanding Six Reassurances, supports Taiwan’s defense reforms & buildup, keeps “forward positioned, capable joint forces” in the Western Pacific ready to respond and creates at least a reasonable doubt in Beijing about whether the US would intervene.”

 

14. China's Three Information Warfares

usni.org · by Morgan Martin · March 3, 2021

Conclusion: "The PRC is trying to claim what it perceives to be its rightful place in the world, and this is likely to bring it to blows with the United States, its main rival for global hegemony. It currently is trying to “win without fighting” by using its Three Warfares doctrine. Infiltration of the entertainment industry, attempts to legitimize its claims in the South China Sea, and continued harassment of U.S. partners and allies in the Pacific are part of a series of planned activities intended to weaken U.S. and allied resolve prior to a forced reunification with Taiwan. Abundant indicators suggest the PRC is attempting to levy costs on the United States to achieve strategic goals. It is incumbent on U.S. leaders to decide whether the PRC will impose its worldview unchecked, or if the United States will rise to counter it."

 

15. Rare Truths About China’s Rare Earths

WSJ · by The Editorial Board · March 3, 2021

 

16. 1619, 1776, and Us

thebulwark.com · by Cathy Young · March 3, 2021

A very interesting comparison of these two "projects."

Conclusion:

“The ill-fated 1776 Commission and its report will likely be remembered, if they are remembered at all, for promoting the idea that Trumpian populist nationalism stands on one side and the 1619 Project on the other. But that’s a false dichotomy. There is a message that stands in opposition both to the basic premise of the 1619 Project and to Trumpism. That was the message delivered by Arnold Schwarzenegger in his viral video a few days after pro-Trump rioters stormed the Capitol to stop Joe Biden from being certified as the winner of the election. Schwarzenegger spoke of serving “the ideals on which this country was founded.” If we are seeking to reclaim the nation’s soul after the last four years, “our founding ideals were a racist lie” is not a great place to start.”

---------------

 

"I firmly believe that democracy holds the key to freedom, prosperity, peace, and dignity. We must now demonstrate — with a clarity that dispels any doubt — that democracy can still deliver for our people and for people around the world. We must prove that our model isn’t a relic of history; it’s the single best way to realize the promise of our future. And, if we work together with our democratic partners, with strength and confidence, we will meet every challenge and outpace every challenger."

- President Joseph R. Biden (Interim National security Strategic Guidance)

 

"Arguments cannot be answered by personal abuse; there is no logic in slander, and falsehood, in the long run, defeats itself." 

- Robert Green Ingersoll

 

“Reject your sense of injury and the injury itself disappears.” 

- Marcus Aurelius

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Understanding the CCP Threat | Indo-Pacific Defense Forum

2. Look who's embracing 'America First' now | Opinion

3. Opinion | The Military’s Extremism Problem Is Our Problem

4. The factors that could lead to war between the US and China

5. Why Biden Needs to Keep All Nuclear Options on the Table

6. China’s Image in the US Has Never Been Worse

7. Pentagon lays out big tab to keep up with China

8. In Indo-Pacific, US eyes 'agile' posture to dodge Chinese missiles

9. Colin Kahl, Biden nominee for senior Pentagon post, faces GOP scrutiny

10. Key Elements Expected This Year for Pentagon’s Link-Everything Effort

11. U.S. China Policy at the Crossroads: Containment or Liberation?

12. The Army’s Information Operations Profession Has an Identity Crisis

13. German warship to sail through South China Sea, officials say

14. US has no need to change its ‘strategic ambiguity’ about Taiwan, says ex-national security adviser H.R. McMaster

15. The road to Joe Biden's foreign policy runs through Bob Menendez

16. A Glimpse of Bill Burns' CIA

17. Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector

18. Building the Next Generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks and Pattons

19. Admiral Offers Vision for Indo-Pacific

20. COVID-19 Response Has Uncovered and Increased Our Vulnerability to Biological Warfare

 

1. Understanding the CCP Threat | Indo-Pacific Defense Forum

ipdefenseforum.com · by IPDForum · February 11, 2021

My thoughts on dealing with China from a SOF perspective.

 

2. Look who's embracing 'America First' now | Opinion

Newsweek · by Jonathan Schanzer and Mark Dubowitz · March 2, 2021

From my bosses.

Conclusion: "America's interests should be pursued through hard-nosed diplomacy backed by American power. But if it's done at the expense of our allies and to the benefit of our adversaries, it's hard to see how this administration's approach is not the pursuit of a myopic "America First" worldview that Democrats have been decrying for four years."

 

3.  Opinion | The Military’s Extremism Problem Is Our Problem

The New York Times · by Kori Schake and Michael Robinson · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“The military is not the principal arm of accountability for the activity of veterans who are private citizens — American society bears that responsibility. Once these individuals cross into private life and engage in the sort of unacceptable violence that we saw on Jan. 6, they are the purview of that society: Civilian law enforcement will try them, civilian courts will make determinations of justice, and civilians must realize they represent not the military, but the public.

...

Americans in military service and veterans aren’t some sealed-off segment of the population; they are us. And like other Americans, they are yearning for the connectedness of community and a sense of belonging. Finding civically responsible ways to stitch our veterans back into their communities would diminish the pipeline of veterans into extremist groups, just as it gives jihadists and gang members offramps. Remember that veterans stood among the heroes on Jan. 6, too.

Addressing his victorious soldiers, then-colonel and future President James Garfield declared, “Let it not be said that good men dread the approach of an American army.” The responsibility to make it so falls on us all. To the extent that military service — active or prior — poses an extremist threat, we shouldn’t expect only the military to solve this problem for us.”

 

4. The factors that could lead to war between the US and China

aspistrategist.org.au · by Joseph S. Nye · March 2, 2021

Conclusion: "Those who proclaim Pax Sinica and American decline fail to take account of the full range of power resources. American hubris is always a danger but so is exaggerated fear, which can lead to overreaction. Equally dangerous is rising Chinese nationalism, which, combined with a belief in American decline, leads China to take greater risks. Both sides must beware of miscalculation. After all, more often than not, the greatest risk we face is our own capacity for error."

 

5. Why Biden Needs to Keep All Nuclear Options on the Table

The National Interest · by Adam Cabot · March 3, 2021

Excerpts:

With a new president signalling that nuclear weapons are not an option, aggressive dictators looking to exploit power vacuums and weakness may conclude that the time is right to push the envelope and invade Taiwan or close the South China Sea, invade the Baltic States or attack South Korea.

US nuclear policies and strategies have helped prevent great-power conflict through appropriate signalling and a robust, evolving nuclear posture. Now is not the time weaken our resolve when bullies are seeking to exploit global fear and hardship and gain an advantage. Let’s not be blindly idealistic to the point of weakening solid defence structures. There’s too much at stake.

Biden needs to signal to potential adversaries that the US has developed and produced flexible options for a reason, and that these options can and will be used proportionally.

 

6. China’s Image in the US Has Never Been Worse

Vice · by Alan Wong

 

7. Pentagon lays out big tab to keep up with China

washingtontimes.com · by Ben Wolfgang

A key point. Will we deploy intermediate range missiles to Asia and if so, where?

Excerpt: "Asked this week whether the U.S. was examining the possibility of intermediate-range missiles in the Pacific, Pentagon officials left the door wide open.“That’s the kind of thing that we’ll be looking at in our global posture review. And I think that all factors into what resources you’re applying against what strategy in what part of the world,” Defense Department spokesman John Kirby told reporters Monday, adding, “Clearly, our defensive posture, which includes not just people, but resources and systems, will all be part of this global posture review.”

 

8. In Indo-Pacific, US eyes 'agile' posture to dodge Chinese missiles

asia.nikkei.com

An interesting statement in the subtitle: "Commander vows shift away from concentration in East Asia."

I suspect this might be misinterpreted in Korea.

 

9. Colin Kahl, Biden nominee for senior Pentagon post, faces GOP scrutiny

KSNV· by James Rosen · March 2, 2021

Someone mentioned to me that Colin will be a sacrificial lamb among the confirmation nominees.

 

10. Key Elements Expected This Year for Pentagon’s Link-Everything Effort

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

"Link everything." Quite a concept. Of course my question is what happens when we become delinked? Are we going to invest in sufficient capabilities to ensure resilience?

But I concur with the Chairman that this has long been a problem:

“Up until today, all the services, for years, decades, have been developing their own internal systems,” Milley said. “And we end up having to do all these bridges and workarounds etc. So they optimize development for their own internal requirements and they sub-optimize for anything that’s needed for the joint role. But we don’t fight wars as an Army, a Navy…we fight wars as a nation and we fight wars with allies and partners.”

 

11. U.S. China Policy at the Crossroads: Containment or Liberation?

spectator.org · by Francis P. Sempa · March 2, 2021

Ominous conclusion: "Should China win Cold War II, the world will be a very different place, and the liberal world order that has brought freedom and prosperity to so many people will be replaced by an illiberal, autocratic one. These are the stakes."

 

12. The Army’s Information Operations Profession Has an Identity Crisis

usni.org · by Bradley Young and Jonathan Wood · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“Clearly, the lack of identity negatively impacts FA30s’ professional cohesion. Many FA30s are marginalized, ignored, underutilized, or incorrectly employed. There is no doubt that this identity crisis also negatively impacts the Army’s ability to recruit and retain IO professionals. It is never easy to recruit and retain individuals in a profession that struggles to define itself.

...

Without a doubt, Army FA30s perform an essential role in information warfare, and the importance of these positions will only increase as the information environment becomes more central in current and future warfare. The Army will continue to need staff experts focused on the holistic integration of all information-related effects, and FA30s will fill that role regardless of whatever form the position takes. By standardizing Joint Force and Army IO doctrine and terminology, as well as investigating the possibility of creating an IO branch, the Army can help build the identity and capability of its IO community, thus empowering them to wage information warfare in future conflicts.

 

13. German warship to sail through South China Sea, officials say

straitstimes.com · March 3, 2021

Seems like more and more of our European allies are conducting operations in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

14. US has no need to change its ‘strategic ambiguity’ about Taiwan, says ex-national security adviser H.R. McMaster

SCMP · by Robert Delaney · March 3, 2021

Excerpts:

“McMaster supported the call for a larger, more distributed fleet because, he said, China and Russia have in the past 20 years developed technologies including big data analytics, GPS and precision strike capabilities that threaten US naval operations more than ever.

“Since World War I, the smaller and smaller US joint forces have had bigger and bigger impacts over wider areas based on our technological advantages,” he said.

“All of that now was challenged, because Russia, China and others, they studied us, especially after the Gulf War, and they developed capabilities to take apart those differential advantages,” McMaster added.

The Biden administration must submit its proposed 30-year budget for shipbuilding later this year, which will require congressional approval, and has not yet indicated whether it will support the Trump administration’s goal.”

 

15. The road to Joe Biden's foreign policy runs through Bob Menendez

Politico

Excerpts:

“Menendez’s allies say the Biden administration would cross him at its own peril — especially when Biden is looking for lawmakers’ support for a major foreign policy initiative. Menendez’s penchant for working closely with Republicans can be an asset to an administration that came into office emphasizing bipartisanship. And in a 50-50 Senate, every vote counts.

“I would encourage the Biden administration to pick his brain, because if Bob can get onto something, Republicans are going to take it seriously,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said in an interview.

Menendez has vowed to conduct vigorous oversight of the Biden administration’s foreign policy — something that was sorely lacking under former President Donald Trump, whose administration routinely flouted Congress, ignored the law, and was openly hostile to both Democrats and Republicans.

“When things aren’t going as well as they should, don’t expect Sen. Menendez to lay back. I expect he’ll be pretty aggressive,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the second-highest ranking Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee.

 

16. A Glimpse of Bill Burns' CIA

thecipherbrief.com

Look over the horizon a little bit??? I recall this anecdote from an intelligence professional. I have no way to confirm this but I trust what he told me. He said during the Cold War the CIA had about 75% of its analysts focused on long term intelligence forecasts and analysts and 25% on current operations. After 9-11 that was more than reversed. If intelligence is going to support policy then we probably need to allocate sufficient intelligence resources on looking over the horizon more than a little bit.

Excerpts:

“Near the end of the hearing, in answer to a question, Burns suggested that CIA, as immediate as crises may seem, should at times “be able to look over the horizon a little bit.”

He chose Space where, he said, “Our adversaries are working overtime to develop their capabilities which can threaten American critical infrastructure and lots of other things that are important to us. It’s also an area where there are really no international rules of the road right now – whether in terms of commerce or security or anything else.”

Burns went on, “It’s incumbent on CIA to focus on issues like that to be able to highlight the threat that’s growing for American interests and then to try to think creatively in support of policymakers about how you anticipate those threats and begin today to plan for the best ways to deal with them.”

 

17. Using Messaging and Communication to Influence and Inform: Insights from the Private Sector

nsiteam.com

The 11 page report can be downloaded here. 

 

18.  Building the Next Generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks and Pattons

mwi.usma.edu · by Kelly McCoy · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

“The master of science in strategy is an interdisciplinary degree drawing from a technically focused graduate-level certificate and combining this with a unique strategic studies curriculum and an applied research thesis. The strategic studies curriculum focuses on policy topics like national security decision making, emerging technology, space systems, and cyber. These courses are designed to provide tools for technological leaders to define ill-structured, sometimes wicked, problems and formulate outcomes with clear operational benefits bounded by technical reality.

The principal constraint of this program, however, is its limited technical focus. Currently, technological leaders produced by this program will focus either on space systems or nuclear command, control, and communication. However, as the program expands, there is potential for growth into existing technical certificates in cyber, artificial intelligence, and data science.

In a recent US Army Mad Scientist discussion on policy and ethics of autonomous systems, the panel of experts highlighted the need for translators—those who understand both the hard and soft sciences—if the US military is to be successful in the upcoming Cognitive Age. Whether we call them translators or technological leaders, now is the time empower, develop, and build the next generation of Boyds, Hoppers, Krulaks, and Pattons. The alternative is to leave it to serendipity and hope that they emerge individually by circumstance. We can’t afford to take that chance.”

 

19.  Admiral Offers Vision for Indo-Pacific

defense.gov · by David Vergun

Excerpts:

“To accomplish all of this, there are four key pillars...

The first pillar is to increase joint force lethality

The second pillar is to enhance force design and posture in the region

The third pillar is to strengthen alliances and partnerships

The fourth pillar is to exercise experimentation innovation.”

 

20. COVID-19 Response Has Uncovered and Increased Our Vulnerability to Biological Warfare

academic.oup.com · by Regan F Lyon, MC, USAF

If we cannot "fight through" COVID we may not be able to fight through a deliberate biological warfare attack. Hopefully we are learning lessons from COVID that will be useful in a deliberate biological attack.

 

---------------

 

“We have war when at least one of the parties to a conflict wants something more than it wants peace.”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"Whenever men in their arrogance and pride set themselves up as absolute, they will be beaten to the ground."

- Benjamin E. Mays

 

The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value. I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death. 

- Thomas Paine

News & Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and published by Daniel Riggs

1. Senator Markey and Rep. Levin to Reintroduce Legislation to Expedite Lifesaving Humanitarian Assistance to the People of North Korea

2. Sanctions not sole reason for humanitarian crisis in N. Korea: unification ministry

3. South Korean lawmakers urge enforcement of North Korean human rights law

4.  North Korea’s cyber commandos range far, strike deep

5. The South Korean Alliance Improves Under Biden, But Issues Remain

6. Broaden the Scope of the US-ROK Military Alliance

7. Report: U.S., South Korea begin crisis management training

8. North Korea slams Harvard Law professor for 'comfort women' article

9. U.S. must use maximum pressure to convince N. Korea it is safer without nukes: McMaster

10. S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm commitment to coordinate closely on N. Korea

11. 'Comfort woman' asks top envoy to take case to ICJ

12. China expands first foreign frontline military channel with U.S. ally South Korea

13. From newspapers to cookie packages, North Korea's use of the phrase "powerful nation" is falling

14. North Korean AN-2 crashes near Taechon Air Base, leaving 5 dead

 

1. Senator Markey and Rep. Levin to Reintroduce Legislation to Expedite Lifesaving Humanitarian Assistance to the People of North Korea

markey.senate.gov

I am a strong believer in human rights in north Korea and that we must be concerned with the welfare of the Korean people living in the north.

I will say this until I have beaten the horse completely dead.

 The suffering of the Korean people in the north is not due to sanctions, COVID 19, or natural disasters. It is due to the deliberate policy decisions of Kim Jong-un to prioritize his nuclear and missile programs, military modernization, and his personal welfare and that of the elite over the welfare of the Korean people. 

 Interestingly some escapees/defectors from north Korea disagree with the notion that humanitarian assistance is helpful to the Korean people and believe the international community should not be providing any humanitarian assistance.

I truly hope this legislation does help the Korean people living in the north. However, for it to work there will need to be transparency by the regime and aid providers must be able to monitor all aid to ensure it reaches those in need and is not diverted as is normal regime practice. If Kim Jong-un were really concerned he would allow such transparency and monitoring. If this legislation is enacted and assists in increasing humanitarian aid it will be another test. to determine the true nature of the Kim family regime. And we will confirm that nature is simply evil.

But the bottom line is: We shouldn’t forget the Korean people in the north are suffering horrendously because of KJU’s policy decision to prioritize nuke weapons over the welfare of the people. He has the resources but chooses the military over the people. Do not blame sanctions for Kim’s evil nature.  We should also not labor under the delusion that if we lift sanctions that it will ease the suffering of the Korean people living in the north. It will not.

Lastly, for those who think that providing humanitarian assistance will influence KJU to come to the denuclearization negotiating table, I refer back to KJU's policy decisions and the fact that he has allowed the people to continue to suffer despite having the resources to care for them. Humanitarian assistance is not a "carrot" that will positively influence KJU.

 

2. Sanctions not sole reason for humanitarian crisis in N. Korea: unification ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 3, 2021

I am glad to see Minister Lee walk this back somewhat.

And I am really heartened to read this: The remarks, however, have drawn controversy as some officials in the United States and the European Union reportedly said that it is not global sanctions, but the Kim Jong-un regime that should take responsibility for the current humanitarian crisis in North Korea.

 

3. South Korean lawmakers urge enforcement of North Korean human rights law

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · March 2, 2021

Opposition lawmakers. Things will not change until the ruling party changes its position on north Korean human rights.

South Korean lawmakers urge enforcement of North Korean human rights law

 

4. North Korea’s cyber commandos range far, strike deep

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · March 2, 2021

Part 2 from Andrew Salmon.

Excerpts:

“The impoverished country has sacrificed its civil economy on the altar of a nuclear deterrent – a stark contrast to the manufacturing, export superpowers of China, South Korea and Japan. This means it lacks the resources to generate or apply such next-generation technologies as 5G, AI and supercomputing – but this does not mean it is not up-to-date on the latest developments.

“When I was monitoring the movements of North Korean hackers, I found they had gone into the servers of online lectures related to the latest tech,” Choi said.

And they are not afraid to target the best in the business.

“In their hacking attempts on Google security experts, they got info from Linkedin and Twitter,” he said. “These North Korean hackers tried to create rapport with other experts and then hacked into projects they were working on – this went on for about a year.”

 

5. The South Korean Alliance Improves Under Biden, But Issues Remain

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · March 1, 2021

Here are some of the key issues that must be addressed.

From a forthcoming paper:

Rock Solid ROK/U.S. Alliance

 There are many alliance issues that need to be addressed. Here is a summary the Biden and Moon administration must work on. While these are beyond the scope of the administration’s specific policy review toward North Korea they are critical issues that must be addressed because failure to effectively do so will undermine any policy.

·     Special Measures Agreement (SMA) (cost sharing): According to reports this may shortly be resolved.

·     Operational Control (OPCON) Transition : The conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK.

·     Combined Exercises and Training: These are critical to maintain military readiness as well as supporting the OPCON transition process and they cannot be negotiated  away with the north.

·     U.S. Forces Korea access to training areas : This is a critical problem for maintaining readiness of U.S. forces.

·     U.S.- China Competition and the impact the ROK/U.S. Alliance. This will continue to be a source of alliance friction.

·     Pandemic response : This impacts not only the entire populations of both nations, but also the economies, and military readiness.

·     ROK-Japan historical enmity . Trilateral cooperation is necessary for the security of all three countries.

·     ROK/U.S. Trade Issues : Although China is the ROK’s largest trading partner, economic relations between the ROK and U.S. are a key component of the alliance.

Regardless of the future policy direction, diplomats, military leaders, and trade and other government officials must work together to manage and where possible, resolve these issues and others. There are mechanisms and processes in place to address these issues from the Military Committee  and the security consultative process  to the Strategy Working Group  at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the State Department.  However, if these issues are not sufficiently addressed a new administration policy will not achieve success because North Korea will exploit unresolved tensions between the U.S. and South Korea to further divide and isolate the allies from one another to enhance Pyongyang’s diplomatic leverage. 

And I would add the ROK anti-leaflet amendment to the national security law.

 

6. Broaden the Scope of the US-ROK Military Alliance

atlanticcouncil.org· by Barry Pavel · March 2, 2021

Strategic flexibility for US forces.

#42: Broaden the Scope of the US-ROK Military Alliance - Atlantic Council

 

7. Report: U.S., South Korea begin crisis management training

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · March 2, 2021

Excerpts:

U.S. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a briefing Monday the training is being carried out to "maintain a high level of readiness" amid signs of North Korean weapons development.

"The training and readiness there is of utmost importance to the secretary, to the entire military and to our alliance," Kirby said.

He declined to provide details of the training.

"We don't talk about the specifics of training events there on the peninsula," Kirby said.

 

8. North Korea slams Harvard Law professor for 'comfort women' article

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · March 2, 2021

One thing that unifies north and South - anti-Japanese sentiment. Of course the legitimacy of the Kim family regime rests on the foundational myth of anti-Japanese partisan warfare and the myth that Kim Il-sung was the great guerrilla leader who liberated Korea.

 

9. U.S. must use maximum pressure to convince N. Korea it is safer without nukes: McMaster

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 3, 2021

A lot of meat to the general's remarks.

This one is often overlooked: "With regard to the threats and risks posed by nuclear-armed North Korea, McMaster said the North has "never developed a weapon that it did not try to sell."

 

10. S. Korea, U.S. reaffirm commitment to coordinate closely on N. Korea

donga.com· March 2, 2021

While this may be a BFO (blinding flash of the obvious) we must not take it for granted and it requires active engagement on a routine basis. So far the anecdotal evidence I see is there is quite a bit of coordination taking place not only between DOD and MND (which is to be expected) but also MOFA and State and between the two NSAs.

 

11. 'Comfort woman' asks top envoy to take case to ICJ

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

 

12. China expands first foreign frontline military channel with U.S. ally South Korea

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · March 2, 2021

Seems like an awkward headline.

Excerpts:

“The South Korean National Defense Ministry also released a statement noting the change, which it said would establish contact with China's Eastern Theater Command, adding to the three existing lines with the Northern Theater Command.”

"(The new hotlines) will help enhance the communication between the South Korean and the Chinese military authorities, which is expected to prevent accidental clashes in the air and the sea and to bring trust one notch higher," the ministry said in a statement translated by the Yonhap News Agency. "The move will also help ease tensions and establish peace in the Korean Peninsula and the region."

 

13. From newspapers to cookie packages, North Korea's use of the phrase "powerful nation" is falling

dailynk.com · March 3, 2021

It is interesting the kind of data we must collect and analyze from north Korea:

“While “powerful country” was mentioned 18 times from January to February 2020, and 11 times during the same period in 2019, the paper has only mentioned the phrase four times so far this year.

Daily NK was unable to confirm whether sugar cookies handed out in 2020 had the phrase “powerful nation.”

This year, North Korea largely handed out the same brands of sugar cookies to kids as in past years.”

 

14. North Korean AN-2 crashes near Taechon Air Base, leaving 5 dead

dailynk.com · March 2, 2021

The nKPA's best SOF infiltration aircraft.

 

-------------

 

“We have war when at least one of the parties to a conflict wants something more than it wants peace.”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

 

"Whenever men in their arrogance and pride set themselves up as absolute, they will be beaten to the ground."

- Benjamin E. Mays

 

The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly; it is dearness only that gives everything its value. I love the man that can smile in trouble, that can gather strength from distress and grow brave by reflection. 'Tis the business of little minds to shrink; but he whose heart is firm, and whose conscience approves his conduct, will pursue his principles unto death. 

- Thomas Paine

https://sof.news/update/20210301/

 

Topics Include:

-Potential downgrade for ASD SOLIC

-Extremism in SOF

-Armed Overwatch

-SOF Ethics Field Guide

-Royal Marines

-The House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations

-Paramilitary Operations

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Fixing Distorted History, a Prerequisite to Democratizing North Korea

2. New satellite images reveal North Korea took recent steps to conceal nuclear weapons site

3. Russian Diplomats' Joyride out of N.Korea Unmasks Dire Reality

4. IAEA chief expresses concerns over North’s nuclear activities

5. 'Consistency needed in North Korea policy'

6. N. Korea's cyber kleptomania threat to capitalism

7. Top security advisors of Seoul, Washington share views on COVID-19, North Korea

8. S. Korea, China agree to establish two more military hotlines

9. State Department says strong trilateral relationships among S. Korea, U.S., Japan enhance regional peace

10. Japanese media: Moon’s speech lacks concrete proposals for bilateral cooperation

11. China conducts COVID-19 stool tests on S. Koreans instead of anal swab tests: foreign ministry

12. Blame North Korea's Horrible Economy on North Korea, Not Sanctions

13. New Kim Jong Un biography spotlights Singapore Summit with Trump

14. New Kim Jong-un 'Biography' Aims to Polish Leader's Halo

15. Ahn Chang-ho's grandson rejects Harvard's call for reconsidering his withdrawal of donation offer

16. Solving the nuclear conundrum (Korea)

17. Not all defectors want the same thing

18. Re-imagining safety, belonging, and justice in the wake of anti-Asian violence

 

1. Fixing Distorted History, a Prerequisite to Democratizing North Korea

HRNK Insider by Kim Myong

Graphics and photos at the link if they do not come through in this message.

This is one reason (of many) why we need a comprehensive and sophisticated alliance information and influence activities campaign.

Excerpts:

“The reason why the North Korean authorities hide the true facts about Kim Il-sung’s and Kim Jong-il's births is because, once known to the people, they may become an obstacle to deifying and idolizing their “great leaders.”

Like anyone else in the world, North Korean people have the right to access information. This right is an integral part of the fundamental right of freedom of expression, as recognized by Resolution 59 of the United Nations General Assembly adopted in 1946,[17] as well as by Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.[18] It has also been enshrined as a corollary of the basic human right of freedom of expression in other major international instruments, including the 1966 International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights.[19]

If any government takes measures to block, for any reason, the free access to information by the North Korean people, they will be blamed by the entire Free World for forsaking 25 million North Koreans and enabling the Kim dynasty to continue to enslave them. As a result of such actions, the prospects for democratization of North Korea and for the peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula will remain uncertain.”

 

2. New satellite images reveal North Korea took recent steps to conceal nuclear weapons site

CNN · by Zachary Cohen and Kylie Atwood

Note the comments on sanctions from my colleague, Anthony Ruggerio.

 

3. Russian Diplomats' Joyride out of N.Korea Unmasks Dire Reality

english.chosun.com · March 02, 2021

Somehow I don't think the Russians characterized this as a joyride.

 

4. IAEA chief expresses concerns over North’s nuclear activities

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Sarah Kim

Concern. Yes we should be concerned.

Kim Jong-un has no intention of giving up his nuclear weapons. And if we think appeasing him with sanctions relief or cancelling exercises will lead to talks and denuclearization then we are clearly not understanding the nature of the Kim family regime and Kim Jong-un's strategic objectives. 

 

5. 'Consistency needed in North Korea policy'

The Korea Times · by Jung Da-min · March 2, 2021

Consistency in assumptions. Consistency in actions, Consistency in understanding the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. And consistency in not engaging in wishful or delusional thinking.

 

6. N. Korea's cyber kleptomania threat to capitalism

The Korea Times · March 2, 2021

I like the use of kleptomania for north Korea's all-purpose sword.

 

7. Top security advisors of Seoul, Washington share views on COVID-19, North Korea

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · March 2, 2021

I have not assessed the data, but anecdotally it seems like our national security officials are engaging more often than might be considered routine. I think that is a good thing.

 

8. S. Korea, China agree to establish two more military hotlines

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 2, 2021

It will be interesting to see how this will work the next time China (and Russia as they have done at least twice together in the past) penetrates the KADIZ.

 

9. State Department says strong trilateral relationships among S. Korea, U.S., Japan enhance regional peace

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 2, 2021

We cannot overstate or over emphasize the importance of trilateral cooperation.

 

10. Japanese media: Moon’s speech lacks concrete proposals for bilateral cooperation

donga.com · March 2, 2021

Excerpt:

“President Moon said he is always ready to have a talk with the Japanese government regarding the estranged relations between the two countries,” NHK said on Monday. “However, he did not directly mention the issues surrounding sexual slavery and forced labor during the Pacific War and only repeated his previous stance of resolving the current issues with diplomacy.”

 

11.  China conducts COVID-19 stool tests on S. Koreans instead of anal swab tests: foreign ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 2, 2021

Unlike the Americans and Japanese it seems like the South Koreans are getting "special" treatment from China. Or is there some spin involved in this reporting.

 

12. Blame North Korea's Horrible Economy on North Korea, Not Sanctions

The National Interest · by Robert E. Kelly · March 1, 2021

Thank you Professor Kelly. We cannot be influenced by those who think it is sanctions that are hurting the Korean economy and causing the horrendous suffering of the Korean people in the north.

 

13. New Kim Jong Un biography spotlights Singapore Summit with Trump

upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · March 1, 2021

But this is an interesting data point: "The book, which includes no photographs, made no mention of Moon. The South Korean president has been credited with persuading Trump to meet with Kim in 2018, and met with Kim at Panmunjom in April 2018 before Trump had committed to a summit."

Excerpt:

"The book, first published Dec. 30, cited Kim's summit with former President Donald Trump as the greatest achievement, with 15 pages devoted exclusively to the 2018 Singapore Summit and the informal summit with Trump at Panmunjom in 2019, according to South Korean paper Herald Business."

 

14.  New Kim Jong-un 'Biography' Aims to Polish Leader's Halo

english.chosun.com· March 2, 2021

I think the proper term is not biography but hagiography. 

Again, anyone think the regime is going to give up nuclear weapons?  

Excerpts:

“A chapter titled "A Nuclear Weapon for a Nuclear Weapon" elaborates on an alleged hydrogen bomb test in 2016 and another test to mount a hydrogen bomb on an intercontinental ballistic missile the following year. Separately, it also dwells on tests of two ICBMs.

"Only strength can suppress hostile forces and nuclear deterrence can overpower tyrannical nuclear forces," it rhapsodizes. "We need to put an end to the history about the U.S.' one-sided nuclear blackmail with our own powerful nuclear weapons."

 

15. Ahn Chang-ho's grandson rejects Harvard's call for reconsidering his withdrawal of donation offer

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 2, 2021

I see no way that he could make this donation as long as this paper is published.

 

16.  Solving the nuclear conundrum (Korea)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com  · by Song Min-soon

Some good analysis here though I disagree that South Korea should develop an incident nuclear capability. It does not need one.

 

17. Not all defectors want the same thing

dailynk.com · March 2, 2021

Yes, there is no one size fits all for escapees (defectors).

Excerpts: 

“In his book, Cho distinguishes defectors in three different categories: those working in China who intend to return to North Korea after earning enough money; those living in China long-term who regularly send money back to their family members in North Korea; and those wanting to defect to the South. According to Cho, the vast majority of North Koreans who leave their country belong the the first two categories.”

...

Then there’s the third category, those who the two former groups see as the real “defectors.” Cho puts forth various reasons for why some North Koreans choose to ultimately go to South Korea. Among them are women who want to provide a better education for their children; those who want the security and benefits that come with South Korean citizenship; and those who committed crimes in either North Korea or China and have no safe place to settle besides South Korea.

But one factor that Cho repeatedly emphasizes is the role that brokers, NGOs, and religious groups play in convincing North Koreans to come to the South. According to many defectors Cho spoke to in Chinese border towns, brokers—who often worked hand-in-hand with NGOs and religious groups—would sell South Korea as a gleaming image of hope, a wonderful utopia where these North Koreans struggling to make a living in China would be accepted, given housing, money, education, legal documents, and treated equally as South Korean citizens.

Enamored by what they saw in Korean dramas and the convincing sales pitch made by brokers, many did indeed make the move. But the after-effects of such defections left those North Koreans in China in an even more vulnerable position than they were before. As a result of these brokers and their “recruitment” of North Koreans to either defect or work as brokers themselves, Chinese authorities soon caught up with what was going on and increased crackdowns in border towns.

 

18. Re-imagining safety, belonging, and justice in the wake of anti-Asian violence

The Brookings Institution · by Jennifer Lee and Tiffany Huang · March 1, 2021

This is another sad stain on America.

 

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"The death of democracy is not likely to be an assassination from ambush. It will be a slow extinction from apathy, indifference, and undernourishment." 

- Robert M. Hutchins

 

"The President may indeed in one respect resemble the commander of an army in peace, but in another and more essential sense he resembles the commander of a ship at sea. He must have a helm to grasp, a course to steer, a port to seek."

- Henry Brooks Adams

 

"Extremism in defense of liberty is not a vice, but I denounce political extremism, of the left or the right, based on duplicity, falsehood, fear, violence and threats when they endanger liberty."

- George W. Romney