News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Antony Blinken’s Finest Hour

2. Americans are not unanimously war-weary on Afghanistan

3. Vaccine fears: Why inoculating the force will be difficult

4. On The Mindless Menace of Violence - Robert F. Kennedy 1968

5.  Perspective | Bipartisan political rhetoric about Asia leads to anti-Asian violence here

6. Special Ops Aren’t A Substitute For Strategy

7. Slandering the U.S. Military . . . Again

8. The British Army has a Blackbelt in 'Bullshito'

9.  Command Senior Enlisted Leader Assignment (JSOC MI Bde  to SOCKOR)

10. Good Climate Policy Should Fight Corruption and Organized Crime

11. The federal government faces ‘wicked problems.’ It needs more expertise, a new report says.

12. Drones Could One Day Make Up 40% of a Carrier Air Wing, Navy Says

13. New Pentagon No. 2 warns China's "aggressive" actions pose threat

14. European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say

15. Will the Biden Administration Shine Light on Shadowy Special Ops Programs?

16. India, US to expand military engagement, defense ties

17. Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties

18. Russian Interference in 2020 Included Influencing Trump Associates, Report Says

19. Strengthen Media Literacy to Win the Fight Against Misinformation (SSIR)

20. Behind America’s Botched Vaccination Rollout: Fragmented Communication, Misallocated Supply

21. Foreigners in their own country: Asian Americans at State Department confront discrimination

 

1. Antony Blinken’s Finest Hour

Bloomberg · by Eli Lake · March 19, 2021

And China showed its true colors.  I am surprised we didn't see a shoe banging incident like Khrushchev at the UN.

 

2. Americans are not unanimously war-weary on Afghanistan

The Brookings Institution · by Madiha Afzal and Israa Saber · March 19, 2021

A provocative essay.

Conclusion: “The American public is unsure about the next steps to take in Afghanistan, and for good reason: The decision is a very difficult one, with downsides to both staying and leaving. The public seems to be partly ambivalent, partly divided on the correct course of action. Veterans groups are also divided on the right policy decision. What’s clear is that the common refrain in policy debates that “Americans want out” is not accurate and should not be presented as the driving force for efforts to withdraw from Afghanistan.”

 

3. Vaccine fears: Why inoculating the force will be difficult

militarytimes.com · by Geoff Ziezulewicz · March 15, 2021

This is really troubling on so many levels.  And if COVID 19 persists I fear this could have long term consequences for the military to be able to "fight through" this virus as well as possible future biological attacks.

 

4. On The Mindless Menace of Violence - Robert F. Kennedy 1968

On The Mindless Menace of Violence

A timely reminder from 1968 that we still need to reflect upon in 2021.

Video at the link and text below.  I think the video of the speech is longer with more remarks than in the text below and in any copy of the speech I have found on the internet (which differ among sources - I have posted two versions below).

I think it is best to spend 20 minutes listening to the speech.

 

5. Perspective | Bipartisan political rhetoric about Asia leads to anti-Asian violence here

The Washington Post ·  by Viet Thanh Nguyen and Janelle Wong · March 19, 2021

Conclusion: “Still, history tells us something important: The experience of racial discrimination does not happen for any group in isolation; white supremacy depends on pitting people of color against one another so they do not see their shared cause. Racial profiling does not stem from the same stereotypes for Asian Americans, Black people, Muslims and other groups, but it serves a common purpose — to define who is essential and who belongs to the nation. The case of Asian Americans shows the varied ways in which the boundaries of belonging are enforced through old ideas that circulate over generations. The best way to keep Asian Americans safe is for the United States to improve its economy and promote global equality for everyone, without fearmongering about the countries their ancestors left.”

 

6. Special Ops Aren’t A Substitute For Strategy

breakingdefense.com · by Stewart Parker

CT versus irregular warfare is not either/or  but both/and. (and as we know CT is one of the five mission areas of IW per the DODD 3000.7 and the new Irregular Warfare Annex to the NDS). 

What the article focuses most on is the national mission force conducting CT. 

This is because the primary CT force is the national mission force and it is not a force that should be shifted to other areas of IW - it is not an appropriate force for FID on a large scale, for UW, for COIN or for stability operations).  The conventional military is the most appropriate force for stability operations (which is required both in the IW context but also in the post conflict phase of major theater or state on state warfare).  Special Forces, Civil Affairs, Psychological Operations, certain SEAL teams (not 6), Marine Special Operations Teams, and selected AFSOC units (6th SOS, STS, CCT,  and certain air units) are the appropriate forces for FID and UW (and support to UW), the two most important missions in IW or the gray zone.

We need to be able to compete with the revisionist and rogue powers of China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea in the political warfare space which must be a national effort of statecraft (or irregular statecraft  - See LTG Cleveland's work on an American War of Irregular Warfare, page 217, "...there is

a need for the United States to formalize and develop what might be best called irregular statecraft. Irregular statecraft is a form of competition in which state and nonstate actors employ all means, short of war, to support friends and allies and erode the influence, legitimacy, and authority of adversaries and is the modern equivalent of what George Kennan described, in 1948, as political warfare." https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA300/PEA301-1/RAND_PEA301-1.pdf).   Irregular Warfare is the military contribution to political warfare or irregular starcraft.

And as I have written, SOF makes an important contribution to political warfare through its three trinities: Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, and support to political warfare and its comparative advantages of influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations.  At the same time elements of SOF will focus 100% effort on the no fail missions of CT and CP.

 

7. Slandering the U.S. Military . . . Again

National Review Online · by Mackubin Thomas Owens · March 20, 2021

A difficult critique.

Regarding trust within the force, what is the rank-and-file soldier to think when both politicians and

 

8. The British Army has a Blackbelt in 'Bullshito'

wavellroom.com · by Ryan Noordally · March 19, 2021

We are going to have to use the  new term we learned for martial arts - "bullshito."  

This is an interesting critique of the British military but applies well beyond.

 

9. Command Senior Enlisted Leader Assignment (JSOC MI Bde  to SOCKOR)

defense.gov · March 19, 2021

 

10. Good Climate Policy Should Fight Corruption and Organized Crime

thedispatch.com · by Emanuele Ottolenghi · March 19,2021

Conclusion: “The president’s instincts to tackle climate change and reverse the tide of global corruption and crime are correct. What the administration needs to emphasize is that the two policies are not separate, but integral to one another. Punishing those who, through their greed and crime, compound the threat of climate change, should become a priority of the Biden Administration.”

 

11. The federal government faces ‘wicked problems.’ It needs more expertise, a new report says.

The Washington Post · by Eric Yoder · March 18, 2021

Although not necessarily the focus of this report It needs personnel who can understand, plan, orchestrate, and conduct political warfare, irregular statecraft and irregular warfare. 

Perhaps Congress recognized the military needs a capability to deal with "wicked problems"  of irregular warfare in the current 2021 NDAA (SEC 1299L below).  What we really need is a national level center for all of the US government agencies to be able to focus on political warfare and irregular statecraft.  I believe by definition political warfare and irregular statecraft focus on "wicked problems."

And I think Congress recognized the wicked problems we must address when it defined irregular warfare this way in the 2018 NDAA: "Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.”

 

12. Drones Could One Day Make Up 40% of a Carrier Air Wing, Navy Says

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Where will the pilots for these UAS be located? On the Carrier or ashore?

 

13. New Pentagon No. 2 warns China's "aggressive" actions pose threat

NBC News · by Dan De Luce · March 19, 2021

DEPSECDEF makes news at the National War College.

 

14. European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say

Business Insider · by Mitch Prothero

Excerpts:

“A third intelligence official from a NATO country said that the Estonian case — where Chinese agents used the cover of conference trips and academic settings to recruit, debrief and even reward Kõuts — was typical of the Chinese playbook.

"They love the academic settings," said the official who cannot be named in the press. "China heavily emphasizes collection of intellectual property, scientific research, and industrial techniques as opposed to the Russians who focus more on traditional hard government intelligence collection.

"This means the work is often done in more casual conference settings where it's easier to recruit. And the rewards are easy to cover up... Luxury trips disguised as academic conferences, fine dining or prostitutes at the legitimate conferences, it's pretty easy to work assets this way."

European spies are alarmed after a scientist with top security clearance was caught working for China, sources say.”

 

15. Will the Biden Administration Shine Light on Shadowy Special Ops Programs?

The Intercept · by Nick Turse · March 20, 2021

Turse's anti-military, and specifically anti-SOF agenda, is on full display.  He even dredges up the JCET reporting from Dana Priest in the 1990s.

 

16. India, US to expand military engagement, defense ties

AP · by Sheikh Saaliq · March 20, 2021

Excerpts:

“Austin is making the first visit to India by a top member of President Joe Biden’s administration. His visit follows a meeting last week between leaders of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, which together make up the four Indo-Pacific nations known as the Quad.

The Quad is seen as a counterweight to China, who critics say is flexing its military muscle in the South China Sea, East China Sea, Taiwan Strait and along its northern border with India.

China has called the Quad an attempt to contain its ambitions.

Austin’s Indian counterpart, Singh, said the talks were focused on “expanding military-to-military engagement.”

“We are determined to realize the full potential of comprehensive global strategic partnership,” Singh said.”

 

17.  Bitter Alaska Meeting Complicates Already Shaky U.S.-China Ties

WSJ · by William Mauldin

Excerpt: “Beyond that, foreign policy specialists said, the acrimony shows shifting perceptions that each has about the balance of power between the two nations, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation and conflicts over hot spots like control of critical technologies and China’s claims against Taiwan and Japan and in the South China Sea.”

 

18. Russian Interference in 2020 Included Influencing Trump Associates, Report Says

useful idiots?

The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes · March 16, 2021

 

19. Strengthen Media Literacy to Win the Fight Against Misinformation (SSIR)

ssir.org · by Kristin M. Lord & Katya Vogt

The words of the 2017 NSS should still apply:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Media literacy is an important concept. As I peruse social media and listen to the critiques of CNN and FOX (as well as others) what I notice is the critiques that are echoed are those of FOX critiquing CNN and those of CNN critiquing FOX. People are not conducting their own analysis but instead are simply parroting the critiques they hear in their own echo chambers. I like to conduct my own media experiment. Whenever I hear a critique of FOX on CNN I switch the channel to FOX and watch it. Whenever I hear a critique of CNN on FOX I switch to CNN. As I add up the time spent on each channel I find that I spend more on CNN because there is more criticism of CNN on FOX than there is of FOX on CNN (though the amount of criticism of FOX on CNN is increasing quickly since the change of administrations).

More importantly, what I have found is that the criticisms are more often than not based on misinterpretations and/or spin that on objectively analysis though one network does this more than the other. And few people actually watch both to make their own judgments, they take what they hear on their preferred media outlet as gospel.

 

20. Behind America’s Botched Vaccination Rollout: Fragmented Communication, Misallocated Supply

WSJ · by Sarah Krouse, Brianna Abbott and Jared S. Hopkins

A useful initial AAR.

 

21. Foreigners in their own country: Asian Americans at State Department confront discrimination

Politico · by Ryan Heath · March 16, 2021

 

--------------

 

"To sin by silence when we should protest, Makes cowards out of men."

- Ella Wheeler Wilcox

 

"Silence becomes a kind of crime when it operates as a cover or an encouragement to the guilty."

-Thomas Paine

 

"There are times when you have to speak because silence is betrayal."

-Ursula K. Le Guin

The authors argue that there is an intellectual gap in modern U.S. operational design, which focuses too heavily on a conventional mindset and methodology to problem solving, leaving a gap in strategic competition.

 

Link to Article: https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/an-irregular-upgrade-to-operational-design/

 

"Discussions about “Framing the SOF Environment” are based on a fallacy; an environment isn’t special or conventional, it’s just an environment, and it affects more than the military element of national power. Making “SOF” an adjective everywhere parochializes problems and implies that special operations forces are the preordained solution."

 

"Irregular warfare is not a “special operations thing” — it’s a joint responsibility. Just as some of us in the policy world have made the case for rethinking how we describe irregular warfare activities, the military should reconsider how to plan for them."

 

"Now these new ideas should be codified into doctrine. Doctrine isn’t sexy — no argument there. But almost everyone in uniform can agree that unless codified, ideas will rarely translate into professional military education and joint planning efforts. This is what “institutionalizing irregular warfare” means in practice. An irregular upgrade for operational design will aid the United States in competing indirectly and asymmetrically to advance its interests without a catastrophic military confrontation."

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Voice of America:  [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”

2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions

3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea

4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis

5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea

6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea

7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris

8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US

9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?

10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention

11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate

 

1.  Voice of America:  [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”
VOA Korean

Young Gyo Kim hosts Bruce Bennett and me for this week's Washington Talk. As you listen to the comments please keep in mind the target audience for this VOA broadcast is the regime elite in Pyongyang, north Korea. Some of my more provocative comments did not make the cut (north Korea as a Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State and that Kim Jong-un prioritizes his nuclear weapons and military over the welfare of the Korean people in the north as well as Kim's attempt to make Biden's new Korea policy dead on arrival and my explanation of the recent comment training using the Baduk analogy.) But it is only a 20 minute show so not everything can make the cut yet we were still able to make some comments that should not be well received by Kim Jong-un.

 

2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions

hudson.org · by Patrick M. Cronin

The 38 page report can be downloaded here: 

Like Dr. Jung Pak (now Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific), I believe Kim fears the Korean people living in the north most of all, even more than the United States.  I think we should bear that in mind as we read this excellent report from Patrick Cronin.

Key Excerpts:

“But humility is needed when it comes to separating North Korean fact from fiction. After all, North Korea appears as determined as ever to deploy and modernize a military arsenal that includes nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can strike the United States. Accepting the new title of General Secretary, Kim Jong-un told the Eighth Party Congress in January that he planned to build both “small and light” and “super-large” nuclear weapons. Kim’s rationale for his nuclear program is undoubtedly to promote political objectives—such as preventing regime change from either within or without—so that he can unlock economic development and retain power for years. But just because Kim focuses on political goals doesn’t mean that he lacks grander military plans or other ambitions.

Even if the Kim regime were entirely transparent, it is not easy to view a traditional enemy without prejudice. Assessing an adversary requires overcoming cognitive bias based on emotion, entrenched views, and experience. Neither the Kim family and its cadre of elite advisors nor decision-makers within the United States and South Korea are impervious to the profound dynamics—political and psychological, explicit and implicit—that produce confirmation bias. Further, judging another actor’s threat perceptions requires possessing an objective sense of oneself—an elementary axiom of strategy. The requirement harkens back to the classical Chinese aphorism of Sun Tzu: “He who knows the enemy and himself will never in a hundred battles be at risk.”

 

3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea

19fortyfive.com · by Bonnie Kristian · March 19, 2021

This is an appeasement strategy - end exercises and lift sanctions in the hope it will bring Kim to the negotiating table with South Korea.  Kim Jong-un could not have written a better essay to support his strategy to split the ROK/US alliance, and allow him coerce, extort, and use force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.  I bet this essay would win an award in Pyongyang.  The Propaganda and Agitation department might derive some talking points from this.

 

4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Sandip Kumar Mishra · March 20, 2021

The author concludes with a seven point summary of some of the key issues. 

Excerpt: “Fast forward to 2021. In another move, the Biden administration wants to bring in Quad countries into the process. North Korean denuclearisation is one of the five points in the joint statement released on 12 March following the first Quad Summit. Approaching the North Korean nuclear issue via Quad means that China’s cooperation may not be sought, or it could be considered marginal. It also suggests that that the US has changed its policy stand: from the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula—which was agreed to in the 2018 Singapore Summit—to denuclearisation only of North Korea. These changes could herald a widening gap between the US and South Korean approaches, with the President Moon Jae-in administration seeing China as critical to the process. Seoul is also prepared to denuclearise the peninsula if this covers North Korea in its ambit.”

 

5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea

AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · March 20, 2021

The hard target gets harder to assess.  Another source of information dries up.

 

6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021

But did it include yelling and shoe banging?

 

7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021

I concur with Ambassador, Admiral Harris (he needs one more title with an A for some good alliteration - I suppose we could add Aviator since he is a Naval Aviator as well).

Excerpt:

“The former ambassador highlighted the importance of joint defense posture of South Korea and the U.S., arguing North Korea poses the most imminent threat to the U.S.

"I've said when I was PACOM commander, and I've said since then, that the biggest threat the United States faces, the most imminent threat, is the threat from North Korea," said Harris.

"It's okay to be optimistic about the future. It's even okay to be hopeful about the future. But as I've said before, hope is not a course of action when dealing with North Korea. So you need to have the fundamental military readiness to respond to those threats from North Korea," he added.

To this end, Harris welcomed the recent conclusion of negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. to renew their Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines Seoul's share of the cost in maintaining some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea.”

 

8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US

donga.com· March 20, 2021

A critique of the  2+2 and the difference between joint statements and comments to the press. And a warning.

Conclusion: "Joint response by South Korea and the U.S. is desperately needed in such a sensitive situation where the U.S.-China conflicts are worsening and North Korea is plotting provocations. Therefore, North Korea policies to be revealed in the next few weeks need to be “fully-coordinated strategies” as pledged. If the next joint statement also states there is no major difference yet each country has different ideas in reality, South Korea and the U.S. will expose missteps in places, causing misjudgment by China and the North. Moreover, the worst case where the U.S. decides to sit back and the alliance malfunctions in crisis may not be a far-fetched scenario."

 

9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?

english.chosun.com

Because she is an evil woman.

 

10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention

The Korea Times · March 20, 2021

Russia = spoiler?

 

11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate

Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 18, 2021

As I have written I think this is a useful debate.  I used to be a hardover on denuclearization of north Korea.  But I'm willing to accept denuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula if we use that to call out the regime's strategy to break the alliance and dominate the peninsula as well as how the north has failed to live up to all the agreements that have signed that call for denuclearization of the peninsula. while at the same time the South has compiled.

 

---------------

 

"To sin by silence when we should protest, Makes cowards out of men."

- Ella Wheeler Wilcox

 

"Silence becomes a kind of crime when it operates as a cover or an encouragement to the guilty."

-Thomas Paine

 

"There are times when you have to speak because silence is betrayal."

-Ursula K. Le Guin

Publication: https://jsou.libguides.com/ld.php?content_id=60465000

 

"Cyberspace operations extend the reach, agility, pace and effectiveness of SOF when fully integrated into doc-trine, training, planning and execution. For example, foreign internal defense requires cyber-enabled opera-tion off the grid and detection of adversary activity to enable partner response. In contrast, unconventional warfare needs ways for resistance movements to make its own equipment and that can happen with cyber-en-abled 3-D printing.All SOF core activities can be cyber enabled. However, for each core activity SOF needs different cyber-enabled capabilities to secure these benefits."

US Army Document - Regaining Arctic Dominance: https://api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2021/03/15/9944046e/regaining-arctic-dominance-us-army-in-the-arctic-19-january-2021-unclassified.pdf

 

The U.S. Army has announced its new arctic strategy. The strategy outlines how the Army will generate, train, organize, and equip its forces to secure U.S. national interests and maintain regional stability.

 

Objectives: 

• Establish a two-star headquarters with specifically trained and equipped combat brigades
• Improve material readiness of Arctic-capable units
• Improve individual and collective training in mountainous and high-altitude environments
• Improve quality of life for Soldiers, civilians, and families living and working in the Arctic region

 

SOF News Analysis on the New Strategy: https://sof.news/defense/army-arctic-strategy-2021/

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Testy Exchange in Alaska Signals a More Confrontational China

2. How to deal with China

3. FDD | The Sprint to Field the Army Force of the Future

4. The Reality of War Should Define Information Warfare

5. Humility in American Grand Strategy

6. Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China

7. An Irregular Upgrade to Operational Design

8. Former Green Beret, whom Trump pardoned for alleged murder, won’t get Silver Star or SF tab back, Army rules

9. How SecDef Austin Can Make the Most of His India Visit

10. China brings six lies to Anchorage

11. China Hates This: Could Disbursed Bases Help America Win the Next Big War?

12. This could be Army Futures Command’s moment of truth

13. Secret Plans Detail Failures of U.S. Commandos in Africa

14. Pacquiao intends to run for president, says Lacson

15. Ex-Special Forces soldier charged with assaulting cops in Capitol riot

16. Book Review: Scott Anderson - The Quiet Americans - Four CIA Spies At The Dawn Of The Cold War - A Tragedy In Three Acts

17. Exclusive: New GOP Bill Hits Back against Chinese Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

18. National Security Professionals Call for Action on Hate Crimes and Racism Against Asian-Americans

 

1. Testy Exchange in Alaska Signals a More Confrontational China

The New York Times · by Steven Lee Myers · March 19, 2021

It would have been great to be a fly on the wall in the closed session yesterday and today. But I think this is good to allow China to expose its strategy and put its true nature on public display.

 

2. How to deal with China

The Economist · March 20, 2021

The subtitle says it all. We are going to name our grand strategy: "The Epic Global Contest" (autocracy versus liberal values). So rather than Great Power Competition (GPC) we will have Epic Global Contest (EPC).

 

3. FDD | The Sprint to Field the Army Force of the Future

fdd.org · March 17, 2021

You can view the event at the link and read the transcript here.  

 

4. The Reality of War Should Define Information Warfare

usni.org · by  Mike Dahm· March 18, 2021

Conclusion: “Information warfare capabilities, both offensive and defensive, must be integrated with traditional warfare areas to realize success in the modern battlespace. Information warfare’s power to enable and drive offensive operations while denying or manipulating enemy perceptions of the battlespace is unlikely to conjure victories in isolation. Information warfare capabilities defined as combat capabilities will only be effective in the context of consequences. As a weathered senior chief once pointed out, when all is said and done, those real-world consequences involve killing people and destroying things. It is an unpleasant reality, but one that must be acknowledged when giving priority to information warfare in the information environment. For all the information challenges facing the U.S. military—from data management to winning foreign hearts and minds to recruiting the next generation of warriors through social media—information warfare will be a critical core competency in future armed conflict. DoD should define its terms, develop operational concepts for information warfare, and shift leadership and resources to enable its forces to fight and win in the information age.”

 

5. Humility in American Grand Strategy

warontherocks.com · by Mathew Burrows and Robert A. Manning  · March 17, 2021

Conclusion:

“U.S. strategy thus must begin with a new mental map, to align means with ends in a pluralistic world. It means transitioning from a model of primacy to primus inter pares, a sharing of both power and responsibility. Polling data shows Americans want the United States to remain engaged, but also want others to do their fair share. This suggests that to the degree partners demonstrate burden-sharing, the U.S. public would see not just the costs but also the benefits of global engagement.

A starting point is the reality that international systems work to the degree major powers are invested in them. A grand strategy guided by this mentality would, for example, seek a balance of interests with China. It would use smart diplomacy to test the proposition that Beijing’s aspirations and its bottom lines may be different, and thus, Chinese interests may not always be incompatible with U.S. ones. Washington should not just assume all differences are set in stone, but also identify areas with some overlap. In the latter case, the United States would enhance its leverage both by its military and technological strength and building coalitions to counter-balance China. The collective weight of, say, the United States, European Union, Japan, and Australia on World Trade Organization reform is likely to roll back Beijing’s predatory industrial policies on subsidies and state-owned enterprises. But the United States must be prepared to compromise with the European Union, Japan, and Australia to achieve a common position, not assume they will always follow dictation by Washington.

In practical terms, it means that alliances are an important base line, and that power is situational. Ad hoc multilateralism is increasingly the key to problem-solving — a variable geometry of shifting issue-specific coalitions (e.g., the P5+1 on Iran, the Six-Party talks on North Korea, a major emitters group on climate). There remains a desire for credible U.S. leadership. This approach, with the United States enfranchising partners in decision-making to pool power tailored to specific global problems, would foster a wider sense of inclusion, legitimizing U.S. power, and would be more likely to sustain domestic support.”

 

6. Beyond Colossus or Collapse: Five Myths Driving American Debates about China

warontherocks.com · by Evan S. Medeiros and Jude Blanchette · March 19, 2021

I expect Evan will be taking a senior position in the administration in the coming years.He has to be part of the deep bench that will be necessary to sustain foreign policy over the entire term.

Excerpts:

“Based on these and other well-informed assessments of Chinese capabilities and its calculus, U.S. strategy needs to reflect an evolving mixture of security balancing, institutional binding, and dialogue and engagement. U.S. strategy toward China needs to do a better job of connecting the problem and the solution and rejecting a “one size fits all” approach driven by generic ideas like competition, pushback, or regime change. While there is consensus that the United States needs to make deep investments in its own domestic capabilities, there should be a more vigorous debate about where — and how — it confronts and competes with China internationally. Some highly competitive policies will be needed to blunt and degrade Chinese capabilities, such as in the military and cyber realms. In other domains, U.S. strategy should focus on deterring coercion and aggression, delimiting options, and, where possible, shaping China’s choices. Yet at the same time, dialogue and engagement are essential to managing competition and preventing crises, while also ensuring strong and consistent international support for such a variegated strategy.

Regardless of where one comes down on the precise mix of policies that the United States and its allies should adopt, the first step is for debate to be based on a cleareyed assessment of China that rejects popular myths and accepts unpopular realities about the country’s capabilities, intentions, strengths and weaknesses. Tilting at windmills is not now, nor has it ever been, the appropriate foundation for good strategy.”

 

7. An Irregular Upgrade to Operational Design

warontherocks.com · by Brian Petit, Steve Ferenzi, and Kevin Bilms · March 19, 2021

Brian Petit is one of our very best thinkers in the Special Forces Regiment. I use his book in my class as a core text.

Conclusion:

“These five alternative and additive operational design elements can help the military optimize operational approaches throughout all stages of competition. Irregular warfare is not a “special operations thing” — it’s a joint responsibility. Just as some of us in the policy world have made the case for rethinking how we describe irregular warfare activities, the military should reconsider how to plan for them.

As emphasized earlier, these new elements are evolutionary, not revolutionary. There is no need to cast aside traditional concepts. Existing operational design remains useful when thinking about large armies colliding on the battlefield with the purpose of destroying each other. Building on well understood and timeless principles will help new approaches gain acceptance across the joint force. A radical manifesto may be admired but it is more likely to be cast aside.

Now these new ideas should be codified into doctrine. Doctrine isn’t sexy — no argument there. But almost everyone in uniform can agree that unless codified, ideas will rarely translate into professional military education and joint planning efforts. This is what “institutionalizing irregular warfare” means in practice. An irregular upgrade for operational design will aid the United States in competing indirectly and asymmetrically to advance its interests without a catastrophic military confrontation.”

 

8. Former Green Beret, whom Trump pardoned for alleged murder, won’t get Silver Star or SF tab back, Army rules

armytimes.com · by Todd South · March 18, 2021

What is troubling is not so much the merits of the argument or the decision but of the timing of the release of the decision (just like the 2 new 4 star combatant commanders just announced).. This shows the severe civil-military relations problem that has developed over the past four years. This must be corrected.

Excerpts:

“Although the Army reached the decision not to restore the SF tab or the Silver Star to Golsteyn in June, it did not announce the decision in the final months of Trump’s presidency, USA Today reported.

..

“Clearly, we have seen military departments obey the direction of the Commander in Chief in other cases and, inexplicably, the Army defied the President,” Golsteyn said. “It shouldn’t be a surprise the findings of the Army Board were released in November 2020 and not mailed to me for 2 more months, after President Trump left office, so my case could languish in the quagmire of Presidential transition.”

 

9. How SecDef Austin Can Make the Most of His India Visit

defenseone.com · by Vikram J. Singh and Joe Felter

Excerpts:

“For two decades, the U.S.-India defense relationship has deepened ties between the world's oldest and largest democracies. Shared security concerns ranging from terrorism to Chinese military modernization and aggression remain the strategic basis for the partnership. With foundational defense agreements for deeper cooperation on logistics, secure communications, industrial cooperation and geospatial information sharing now in place, the potential for substantive and concrete action has never been greater.

Secretary Austin and Minister Singh are well positioned to lead efforts that can deliver on the promise of building even stronger US—India ties and greater Indo-Pacific stability through more robust military cooperation. Beyond these two major defense partners, it is in the interests of all states sharing a similar vision for the region that they succeed.”

 

10. China brings six lies to Anchorage

Washington Examiner · by Tom Rogan · March 18, 2021

Excerpt:

“Finally, the Global Times says that "If the U.S. is willing to coexist and cooperate with China in peace, China welcomes that and will work hard to make that relationship work. If the U.S. is determined to engage in confrontation, China will fight to the end."

Put another way: Kneel to our rules or face our force. Blinken and Sullivan might have their work cut out for them.”

 

11. China Hates This: Could Disbursed Bases Help America Win the Next Big War?

The National Interest · by Robert Beckhusen · March 19, 2021

What is the proper balance?

 

12. This could be Army Futures Command’s moment of truth

Defense News · by Bradley Bowman and Maj. Jared Thompson · March 19, 2021

Excerpts:

“So what is AFC’s secret so far? It begins with a clear goal of rapidly fielding new combat capabilities in the next few years.

To accomplish that goal, AFC is successfully using flexible acquisition authorities provided by Congress. The command and its eight CFTs have also adopted a soldier-focused, prototype-driven acquisition approach that incorporates feedback from the field and leverages middle-tier acquisition processes and nontraditional other transaction authorities. Where possible, the CFTs are baselining new capabilities from mature technologies, and then incrementally developing new capabilities.

If AFC continues these practices, it may be able to avoid past failures and convert promising R&D programs into fielded combat capabilities that America’s service members urgently need to deter potential aggression from Beijing.”

 

13. Secret Plans Detail Failures of U.S. Commandos in Africa

Vice · by Nick Turse

Although you have to take Nick Turse's spin with a grain of salt, this is not a good look for AFRICOM and SOCAFRICOM, which of course fits with Turse's anti-military and aunty-SOF agenda.

 

14. Pacquiao intends to run for president, says Lacson

news.abs-cbn.com · by ABS-CBN News · March 19, 2021

This will be interesting.

 

16. Book Review: Scott Anderson - The Quiet Americans - Four CIA Spies At The Dawn Of The Cold War - A Tragedy In Three Acts

hotpress.com · by Pat Carty

 

17. Exclusive: New GOP Bill Hits Back against Chinese Funding of U.S. Think Tanks

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 17, 2021

 

18. National Security Professionals Call for Action on Hate Crimes and Racism Against Asian-Americans

defenseone.com · by Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders in National Security · March 17, 2021

 

-----------------

 

"Don't think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It will be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- James Burgh

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

- Adam Grant in Think Again

 

"There are four kinds of people in this world:

those who make things happen;

those who watch things happen;

those who wonder what happened;

those who don’t know that anything happened!

I knew from a very early age that I wanted to be first on that list.” 

- Mary Kay Ash

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea says it will sever diplomatic relations with Malaysia for extraditing citizen to U.S.

2.  S. Korea, U.S. launch working-level policy dialogue

3.  Did Moon Block Use of 'Denuclearization' in Joint Statement with U.S.?

4. US Secretary of Defense says it will take some time to meet OPCON transition conditions

5. Pentagon chief leaves S. Korea after three-day stay for security talks

6. Asia trip by Blinken, Austin successful, will help advance N. Korea policy: Knapper

7. Persuading U.S. to ease sanctions 'top priority' for implementing inter-Korean summit agreements: poll

8. North Korea strengthens monitoring of border to prepare for lifting of border blockade

9. North Korean WMD pose threat to neighbors, violate UN Security Council resolutions: US official

10. North Korea-US tug of war casts shadow over dialogue

11. Parliamentary leaders of South Korea, US hold virtual meeting

12. Hitting Nerve With Kim Jong Un Regime Takes Just a Few Words

13. Gaps to fill in ‘ironclad’ alliance between Korea, US

14.  EXPLAINER: NKorea’s anger to US may actually be an overture

15. Biden's Conundrum: South Korea's Embarrassing Stance On Human Rights

16. A Day Late, But Not a Dollar Short: The New U.S.- Korea Burden-Sharing Agreement

 

1. N. Korea says it will sever diplomatic relations with Malaysia for extraditing citizen to U.S.

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 19, 2021

north Korea is going to cut off its nose to spite its face. Malaysia is a hub for Office 39 front companies that work to bring in hard currency for the Kim family regime's royal court economy. At an HRNK conference yesterday on north Korean proliferation I heard Dr. Bruce Bechtol mention there are hundreds of front companies there, many co-owned with Malaysian partners. Malaysia has been an ideal hub for the regime's illicit activities. So this could be good news though I cannot imagine the regime being so foolish to cut off a source of revenue.

 

2. S. Korea, U.S. launch working-level policy dialogue

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 19, 2021

Excellent development. The Bilateral Policy Dialogue. I hope they will maintain continuous virtual connectivity in between in person meetings.

 

3. Did Moon Block Use of 'Denuclearization' in Joint Statement with U.S.?

english.chosun.com

This controversy is turning out to be very useful.

First, the difference between denuclearization of north Korea and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula helps identify individuals and groups and their specific agendas toward north Korea. We do really see a difference among the countries as well as the Korea watcher community.

More importantly the discussion of the two views helps us to really expose north Korea strategy. We actually have to opportunity to educate more people by bringing attention ott he fact that the north's use of denuclearization of the Korea peninsula is about attacking its description of US hostile and is designed to end the ROK/US alliance, remove troops from the Korean peninsula and end extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. 

Second, the use of either phrase can help us continue to call out the regime. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula was used in the 1992 north-South Agreement on Denuclearization. The South has complied and the north has not. It has also been used in various successive agreements and UN Security COuncil Resolutions, namely UNSCR 1718. However, despite its use in an aspirational sense the UNSCRs focus on north Korean compliance to eliminate its nuclear and ballistic missile (and all WMD) programs.

So we can use denuclearization of the Korean peninsula if we use it to both recognize the regime's strategy and to call out Kim for failing to compy with past agreements. We could make use of this in an information and influence campaign (if we had one) as well as at the negotiating table.

The OpEd below is extremely critical of the Moon administration with a brutal conclusion:

“South Korea stands to suffer the most from North Korea's nuclear ambitions, and under normal circumstances South Korea should be the first to include "denuclearization" in any joint statement with the U.S. When asked why the word was omitted, the Foreign Ministry made the ludicrous claim that there was "not enough space," as if the weasel phrases pussyfooting around the issue did not take up a lot more space. The aim of the Moon administration is to stage another diplomatic photo op with North Korea, ideally featuring Biden and Kim, so that a ruling-party candidate can magically win the next presidential election in March 2022. That will not happen, and the government will bitterly regret its decision.”

 

4. US Secretary of Defense says it will take some time to meet OPCON transition conditions

donga.com · March 19, 2021

We must face facts. The conditions are necessary to ensure the security of the ROK. We want to conclude the OPCO transition process in a way that enhances the security of the ROK and supports the strategic interests of both countries. There are many benefits which I have articulated over the years (and I guess I will have to do again soon) that outweigh the risks especially in the long term. The process must be properly executed and the requisite investment in time, resources, force structure, and training must be made to successfully complete the transition. To do otherwise would be the height of irresponsibility and put the security of the ROK at great risk.

 

5. Pentagon chief leaves S. Korea after three-day stay for security talks

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 19, 2021

The most successful aspect of the trip is three fold - the US demonstrated the partnership of diplomacy and defense, the combined focus on the strength of the alliance, and getting all the important issues out on the table so they can be worked. There is a lot of work to do but we are seeing the processes put in place and new relationships being developed (and old ones renewed). Yes we are seeing a number of criticisms, particularly from the ROK side, but as I said we have issues to be worked.

 

6. Asia trip by Blinken, Austin successful, will help advance N. Korea policy: Knapper

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 19, 2021

Good comments and assessment.

I have heard that Marc is under consideration as the next US Ambassador to the ROK, as is Yuri Kim (the current US Ambassador to Albania).

The important point is close alliance consultation for the policy review. Regarding Choe Sun-hui's statement this week: As I said, the focus of the Biden administration is allies first. That was the purpose of this visit. He and Secretary Blinken also know not to be swayed by north Korean propaganda and rhetoric. While we have to take north Korean statements, we also do not have to react to every one of them since we understand how they fit into the regime’s strategy to drive a wedge into and do harm to the ROK/US alliance and by supporting its blackmail diplomacy line of effort. There is no need to overreact to the regime's rhetoric as long as we understand but the nature of the. regime and its strategy.

Excerpts:

“Knapper, as did Blinken, stressed the importance of completing the U.S. policy review through close consultations with U.S. allies.

"Secretary Blinken got virtually the same question yesterday here in Seoul, and I think his response says it all -- that this moment, we are here and listening closely to what our allies have to say, our allies in Seoul and Tokyo. That's the message we are really focused on at this moment as we continue with our DPRK or North Korea policy review," he said when asked for a response to the message from North Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui.”

 

7. Persuading U.S. to ease sanctions 'top priority' for implementing inter-Korean summit agreements: poll

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 19, 2021

This is troubling and problematic. It is this kind of thinking that will undermine not only diplomacy in Northeast Asia but security as well. This is surely the Moon administration's position and desire. This completely misunderstands the purpose, intent, and capabilities of sanctions. And anyone who thinks that sanctions relief will change Kim's behavior and bring him to the negotiation table to negotiate in good faith needs to go take a drug test. If we lift sanctions without compliance we not only undermine the credibility of sanctions Kim Jong-un will assess that as successful blackmail diplomacy in support of his political warfare strategy and he will double down on his strategy. Lifting sanctions will not lead to denuclearization and it will not lead to substantive negotiations or north -South engagement.

And the US cannot unilaterally lift sanctions. the UNSC must do that and Congress must also rescind legislation to do so. Even if we did go to the UN Security Council to request relief, while we would surely have the support of Russia and China, it is very possible that the UK and France might veto any sanctions relief (thereby saving us from ourselves!)

 

8. North Korea strengthens monitoring of border to prepare for lifting of border blockade

dailynk.com · Jong So Yong · March 19, 2021

The regime is going to have to open the border or what is left of the nK economy will be completely crushed. But it will do so in a way that it hopes can maximize its control over the people and al. activity to include legal trade and illicit activities.

 

9. North Korean WMD pose threat to neighbors, violate UN Security Council resolutions: US official

The Korea Times · March 19, 2021

Excellent statement from Ms Porter (and as reflected in the article headline as well).

There is no clearer problem statement than this:

"North Korea's WMD programs, as reflected in multiple UN Security Council resolutions, are unlawful and constitute a threat to international peace and security," she told a daily press briefing.

Although this is so obvious and well known I fear we forget this simple construct (and it is all WMD and not just the nuclear threat). The regime is a threat and it refuses to comply with international norms and standards.

Of course she is also correct not to publicly air alliance differences.  

 

10. North Korea-US tug of war casts shadow over dialogue

The Korea Times · March 19, 2021

We should not be negatively influenced by nor overreact to north Korean statements.

 

11. Parliamentary leaders of South Korea, US hold virtual meeting

The Korea Times · by Marilyn Strickland  · March 19, 2021

I wonder if they discussed the need to pass the SMA (cost sharing) in the national assembly?

 

12. Hitting Nerve With Kim Jong Un Regime Takes Just a Few Words

WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin

Just imagine if we had a coordinated, holistic, and sophisticated information and influence campaign against the north.

We should be able to exploit denuclearization of the north and of the Korean peninsula. We can concede on the denuclearization of the peninsula and because we understand the nature and objectives of the regime and why it demands this phrase we can expose its true strategy for all the world to see.

We could kill two birds with one stone if we revert back to denuclearization of the peninsula - it would be a concession to the South as well as the north. Although I believe denuclearization of the north is the real and proper focus and believe we can make denuclearization of the peninsula actually work to our benefit as it gives us the opportunity to educate the public in South Korea and the US as well. But we need to effectively execute an information and influence campaign.

 

13. Gaps to fill in ‘ironclad’ alliance between Korea, US

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 19, 2021

Of course there are. But the foundation remains strong.

 

14. EXPLAINER: NKorea’s anger to US may actually be an overture

boston25news.com · by Kim Tong-Hyun

Of course it may be an overture and an opening. It is just that the regime is shaping the conditions and setting the terms. We must understand the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. And the north's statements and actions are also designed to drive a wedge in the regime. Every time we see the regime trying to do that we need to expose that strategy and strengthen our resolve to make the alliance even stronger. Each time the regime challenges the alliance we can sharpen it - steel sharpens steel.

 

15. Biden's Conundrum: South Korea's Embarrassing Stance On Human Rights

andmagazine.com · by Grant Newsham · March 18, 2021

We need to get this right. Human rights is a national security issue. Kim must deny the human rights of the Korean people in the north in order to survive. He is more afraid of the people than the US. This can and must inform a pressure and influence campaign. 

We need a human rights upfront approach that is coordinated within the alliance. We must convince the former human rights lawyer, President Moon of this.

 

16. A Day Late, But Not a Dollar Short: The New U.S.- Korea Burden-Sharing Agreement

keia.org · by Kyle Ferrier · March 18, 2021

But it still must be approved by the national assembly and we are seeing some opposition among ruling party members.

And we should stop using burden sharing and shift to cost sharing. It is a burden to neither country because it is in the national security interests of both countries to share the costs. That should be a key point in a public affairs campaign to educate the public in both countries why this is important.

 

-----------

 

"Don't think of knocking out another person's brains because he differs in opinion from you. It will be as rational to knock yourself on the head because you differ from yourself ten years ago."

- James Burgh

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

- Adam Grant in Think Again

 

"There are four kinds of people in this world:

those who make things happen;

those who watch things happen;

those who wonder what happened;

those who don’t know that anything happened!

I knew from a very early age that I wanted to be first on that list.” 

- Mary Kay Ash

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Burden Sharing: Benefits and Costs Associated with the U.S. Military Presence in Japan and South Korea

2. Opinion | Rising to the Challenge of China

3. Why Washington Is Fed Up With Beijing

4. U.S. Seeks to Counter China’s Full-Court Press in Asia

5. Final Adoption of the U.S. Universal Periodic Review

6. Beyond the pandemic, Asian American leaders fear U.S. conflict with China will fan racist backlash

7. US must grasp China's different set of values

8. If you think the West's culture wars are bad, try Afghanistan's

9. Domestic divisions leave blanks in US Asia policy

10.  How China Sees the International Order: A Lesson from the Chinese Classics

11. In trip to China’s backyard, Biden team tests its ‘values’ policy

12. To Win Over Asia, Talk Trade

13. Faith In The Military Is Falling – Not Demand For Strong Defense: Reagan Institute

14. Ambiguity Doesn't Work. Taiwan Needs Strategic Clarity

15. FDD | There Is No Going Back: Xi’s Vision at China’s National People’s Congress

16. How Politics Has Poisoned the United Nations

17. Key Official: Defense Information Operations ‘Not Evolving Fast Enough’

18. Unarmed Army Ranger confronts a shotgun-wielding robber during Sunday brunch

19. Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

20. Bum-Rushing Extremists From the Military Might Not Help

21. Intelligence Agencies Warn Most Lethal Threat to US Is Homegrown

 

1. Burden Sharing: Benefits and Costs Associated with the U.S. Military Presence in Japan and South Korea

gao.gov

This is a very detailed and important report and one that will be of use to researchers and scholars for a long time to come. The 60 page report has a lot of data that really explains the actual costs and cost sharing.

This should help inform a public affairs campaign to explain the benefits and costs of our alliances in Korea and Japan.

As an aside I was one of the 9 non-government personnel interviewed for this report and my opinions on the benefits are reflected in the text. 

The 60 page GAO report can be downloaded in PDF here. 

Note for my Korean and Japanese friends, it is available in Korean and Japanese.

 

2. Opinion | Rising to the Challenge of China

The New York Times · by Farah Stockman · March 18, 2021

Excerpts:

“With nearly every electronic device requiring semiconductors, these tiny computer chips are the oil of the 21st century. Americans cannot afford to be complacent about where they come from or whether there will be enough to go around. It is reassuring to know that TSMC, the Taiwanese company that is the world’s largest independent semiconductor foundry, has begun constructing a new plant in Arizona and that the National Defense Authorization Act enacted in January provides incentives to the U.S. semiconductor industry. But more must be done.

That is not to say that Americans ought to try to stop China from obtaining the semiconductors that it needs to thrive, or “decouple” the U.S. economy from China’s, as Mr. Trump once dangerously suggested. That would be exceedingly costly and would make it more likely that the two countries will end up in a confrontation.

But Americans have recognized the need to be far more thoughtful and strategic about planning for their own economic future. That’s a good thing. Maintaining a military and technological edge requires investments in research, education and infrastructure that many Americans would otherwise be unwilling to make.

Of all the threats that China poses, the greatest might just be its example to the rest of the world of a successful alternative to American democracy, which has been marred by economic inequality, racial unrest and insurrection. To effectively counter China, Americans must get their own house in order and remind the world — and themselves — that democracy can still deliver for ordinary people.”

 

3. Why Washington Is Fed Up With Beijing

Foreign Policy · by Michael Hirsh · March 17, 2021

Excerpts:

“Meanwhile, Xi has used China’s economic heft to make its own rules and exercise influence as it pleases. It has deployed the massive Belt and Road Initiative to foster “debt-trap diplomacy” in Asia and Africa, while expanding its own commercial (and perhaps military) reach. It also exploited Trump’s unilateral approach and hasty withdrawal from the U.S.-brokered Trans-Pacific Partnership to orchestrate a 15-nation regional trade bloc, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, as an alternative to U.S. trade pressure. All the while, even as Republicans and Democrats bicker over industrial policy, infrastructure investment, and U.S. foreign-policy goals, Beijing is plowing ahead with its state-driven Made in China 2025 initiative to achieve dominance in the most important economic sectors of the future.

But now, in direct contrast to all the earnest U.S. attempts at bringing China in over the decades, it is striking to see how Biden is seeking to cut China out. With Biden’s “Buy American” plan, the administration is even considering a degree of economic decoupling, as China hawks have long advocated: “reshoring” U.S. businesses away from China. European allies remain somewhat on the fence, having concluded an investment pact with China late last year despite Sullivan’s efforts to delay it ahead of Biden’s inauguration. But several allies seem on board with Biden’s approach. As Britain said in its newly released global strategy this week, it plans to “work very closely on the Indo-Pacific with the Biden Administration.”

Yet without real strategic dialogue or diplomatic framework in the offing, many experts fear that the incremental sources of conflict will grow and some kind of cold war may become inevitable, even if the Biden administration wants to avoid it.

In the end, the new president’s team may be walking a dangerous and fine line, one they haven’t quite figured out how to maneuver yet. “I think their strategic approach to China policy is still a work in progress,” Tellis said. “Much will depend on the outcome of Anchorage.”

 

4. U.S. Seeks to Counter China’s Full-Court Press in Asia

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch · March 17, 2021

While I do not think China wants war (a direct kinetic one) with us (nor do we want war with China), we need to be damn sure we did not stumble into one. China wants to be successful at political warfare. But we need to ensure we have the strongest possible military in order to deter war, especially when someone stumbles.

Excerpts:

“But the stakes might not be war, experts said. Instead, China may be using their growing military might to raise the costs for Pentagon planners.

“I don’t think the Chinese want a war. I think they want to be able to put up a threat of sufficient scale that we decide don’t want to fight them, that we’re put in a situation where we decide the cost is not going to be worth it,” said Shugart. “If we lose the crew of one carrier, we’ll lose about as many people in one day as we lost in Iraq over a decade or so.”

 

5. Final Adoption of the U.S. Universal Periodic Review

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken · March 17, 2021

Human rights is a national security issue. And we need to be able to compete through the international organizations space, to include the human rights council at the UN.

 

6. Beyond the pandemic, Asian American leaders fear U.S. conflict with China will fan racist backlash

The Washington Post · by David Nakamura · March 18, 2021

Is a perfect storm being created for racism?

Excerpt:

“It sends a false message that people who look like me would be more disloyal,” Lieu told Blinken, who said he shared the concerns about inequities in the system. “As you manage the relationship with China, I want to remain vigilant that fear of a foreign country does not negatively impact the Asian American community.”

 

7. US must grasp China's different set of values

asia.nikkei.com · by Ian Bremmer · March 17, 2021

Conclusion:

“Which approach will Biden choose? Knowing the consensus-building Biden, it will likely be some combination of all three as Biden tries to empower his administration officials while also making progress on as many objectives as possible over the next few years.

That makes sense over the short-term, but without a comprehensive strategy, the U.S. will still be left facing a China with a fundamentally different set of values and standards, and with increasing means to export its own worldview abroad. A strategic review of U.S.-China relations is the absolute right-step for policymakers in Washington; the real concern is what Washington does with it after it is completed.”

 

8. If you think the West's culture wars are bad, try Afghanistan's

thenationalnews.com · by Sulaiman Hakemy · March 16, 2021

Very interesting:

“Incidentally, Mr Danish and I are technically from the same ethnic group. Like him, my father is a Hazara Afghan, though because my paternal grandmother is Tajik and my mother’s family is from the Indian subcontinent, I look completely different to any Afghan stereotype of a Hazara. So incomprehensible and embarrassing were my non-stereotypical facial features that when I was last in Kabul, I visited a Hazara family friend and he asked me to pretend I was not Hazara if other visitors called at the house.

Curiously, the NSIA’s list of 71 ethnicities also includes Uyghurs, most of whom arrived in Afghanistan from China only recently. They are not in the constitution, and yet now they are part of the nation and get ID cards like everyone else, turning upside down the notion that any one list of ethnicities defined Afghanistan to begin with.

That old history, in which Afghanistan was a struggle between Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras “and others”, will also have to die if the nation is to stay alive. And it will die on its own, as the country’s evolving demographic complexity shows, of natural causes. And the national culture, whatever it really is, will change with it. Rather than talking about how to keep these things alive, conversations for Afghanistan's survival should be about the best way to let go of them.”

 

9. Domestic divisions leave blanks in US Asia policy

eastasiaforum.org · by Gorana Grgic · March 17, 2021

Yes we have to get our domestic house in order. But then again has our domestic house ever been in order?

Excerpts:

“Rather than a radical departure from the Trump era, there are still elements from the previous administration that could qualify as ‘something borrowed’. While the new administration is talking up cooperation on transnational issues such as climate change, global health and arms control, it is bound to maintain the inherited competitive disposition towards China. It has made it abundantly clear that economic statecraft will remain a vital aspect of its strategy.

Yet, there is uncertainty around the policy specifics, much of which will hinge on contingency planning and bureaucratic politics. While we can only speculate as to what Chinese foreign policy will look like over the next four years, there is less room for guesswork when it comes to the key divides in Biden’s team.”

 

10. How China Sees the International Order: A Lesson from the Chinese Classics

warontherocks.com · by David K. Schneider · March 18, 2021

The classics (eastern and western) offer some much insight if only we would read and study them.

 

11. In trip to China’s backyard, Biden team tests its ‘values’ policy

The Christian Science Monitor · by Howrd LaFranchi · March 17, 2021

Excerpts:

“The question now for some regional analysts is whether the U.S. sticks to a comprehensive, values-driven diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific, or if a sense of the growing urgency to confront China prompts a shift to more hard-power initiatives like stepped-up joint military exercises and inter-military cooperation.

“The rhetoric from the Quad summit was reassuring and the emphasis on promoting the public good, with the vaccine initiative and climate change and infrastructure investment, was a very positive development,” says Sarang Shidore, a senior fellow at the Council on Strategic Risks in Washington.

“But China is the deeper reason the Quad was even born,” he adds, “and what I find worrying is that despite the recent attention to the values of the group, which include peace and inclusion, the military aspect has not really been pulled back.

”Pointing to Secretary Austin’s stop in New Delhi, Mr. Shidore says he sees the risk of a regional policy based on values and mutual interests shifting increasingly to an emphasis on China’s “compellence and containment,” something he says America’s regional partners don’t want.”

And he says it is the U.S., as the Indo-Pacific regional powers’ “most powerful and consequential” partner, that will determine which course the region follows.

 

12. In Asia (as in the US) it is the old "its the economy, stupid."

Bloomberg · by Editorial Board · March 18, 2021

Excerpts:

“In any case, Biden should be guided by what’s good for the country and its workers, not by what seems most politically convenient. Standing aside from TPP (as it then was) rivals Brexit as an unforced act of economic self-harm. Biden’s team should be quietly conferring with key countries such as Japan to sketch out the stricter labor and environmental provisions that would be needed for the U.S. to rejoin. At the same time, the White House should accelerate measures to support the workers most affected by foreign trade.

International economic cooperation is vital to sustain the global economic recovery, raise productivity and living standards, and advance America’s security interests in Asia. Biden says the U.S. is once again ready to lead. That’s good. The president needs to lead on trade, too.”

 

13. Faith In The Military Is Falling – Not Demand For Strong Defense: Reagan Institute

breakingdefense.com · by Roger Zakheim and Rachel Hoff · March 17, 2021

Troubling.

 

14. Ambiguity Doesn't Work. Taiwan Needs Strategic Clarity

realcleardefense.com · by Michele Lowe and Alice Cho

From our former intern at FDD, Alice Cho.

Conclusion:

“Ambiguity signals to Beijing that there are questions over America’s commitment to the region, exasperated by four years of an America first mantra that shrunk U.S. leadership in the world. Clarity provides the opposite. It signals to Beijing that the United States is committed to its allies and its regional strategy for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific." If joined by partners and allies, clarity will be an important step in rolling back strategic gains made by China.

Strategic clarity should not be a declaration of independence for Taiwan, tacit support of provocative Taiwanese actions, or an escalation. It is admitting what most already believe to be true, backed by historical evidence during previous strait crises, that the United States is prepared to commit forces should the PLA try to annex Taiwan. The CCP is gaining momentum in creating its vision of a Sino-centric order. It has redefined the status quo by exploiting weaknesses in the liberal system: maritime militia enforcing Chinese nationalism in other states’ territory; unrelenting military shows of force in the Taiwan strait; constructing and arming artificial islands in the South China Sea. The PRC no longer hides its intentions for regional domination or its desire to annex Taiwan. If the United States does not take strong policy stances on Chinese overreaches like Taiwan, then the CCP will achieve its Sino-centric world vision. The American people can no longer delay on firm, concise action. Policymakers should seize the next evolution of U.S. policies, one that embraces strategic clarity, builds consensus for free and open seas, and solidifies America’s commitment to defend democracy.”

 

15. FDD | There Is No Going Back: Xi’s Vision at China’s National People’s Congress

fdd.org · by Craig Singleton · March 17, 2021

Conclusion: “Regardless of potential U.S. military re-alignments in the Pacific, what is unlikely to change, at least in the short term, is the sharp rhetoric coming from senior U.S. officials about the nature of America’s great power rivalry with Beijing. While an upcoming meeting in Alaska between U.S. and Chinese officials may help identify a small number of areas where the two governments can collaborate, namely on climate change and Burma, the meeting itself is unlikely to dramatically alter the current bilateral dynamic or lead to any major shifts in U.S. policy. In the meantime, all eyes will turn to Beijing’s upcoming celebration of the CCP’s anniversary and Xi’s all-but-certain elevation into the annals of Chinese history.”

 

16. How Politics Has Poisoned the United Nations

The National Interest · by David May · March 17, 2021

Is there an antidote for the poison? Can we "fix" the UN human rights council?

Excerpts:

“To reform the UPR process, the council should first start with a clear-eyed approach to membership. With the Biden administration’s intention to run for election to the UNHRC next year, here are two ways Biden should advocate for reforming the Council:

First, the General Assembly should determine UNHRC membership by voting through open ballots, not secret ones as is currently done. Forcing countries to publicize their votes could dissuade them from supporting abusers and would introduce some accountability in the UN human rights infrastructure.

Second, there should be basic standards for council membership. Freedom House’s Annual Global Freedom Scores provides an objective, evidence-based approach to rating countries based on their access to political rights and civil liberties and should be drawn from.

After instituting membership standards, the council should empower the UPR Working Groups to impose a vetting process for member state recommendations. This includes developing firm criteria to determine whether the recommendations are valid or should be thrown out due to a country’s political interests.

Reforming the council won’t be easy; previous administrations have tried and failed. But if the United States rejoins an unreformed Council, it will lend legitimacy to an institution that embraces human rights violators rather than challenging their abuses.”

 

17. Key Official: Defense Information Operations ‘Not Evolving Fast Enough’

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Until we overcome our risk averseness to influence and fix the problem with this anecdote we will never sufficiently progress. In the US it is easier to get permission to put a hellfire missile on the forehead of a terrorist than it is to get permission to put an idea between his ears (or anyone's ears for that matter).

 

18. Unarmed Army Ranger confronts a shotgun-wielding robber during Sunday brunch

armytimes.com · by Todd South · March 17, 2021

I love our Rangers. Quite a story. This is what they do. I will bet WO1 Ruth will soon be flying for 160th SOAR and coming to the rescue of operators somewhere on a hot LZ.

 

19. Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

Daily Mail · by Harriet Alexander · March 17, 2021

The new normal. A brave new world. Big brother can now watch.

But note they do not have the capability to monitor north Korea and Cuba.

Spy firm wants to sell real-time locations of YOUR car to the military

• A South Carolina-based surveillance firm is promoting its car monitoring ability
• The Ulysses Group says it has real-time access to 15 billion cars worldwide
• They monitor cars through GPS and sensors on equipment such as airbags
• The data may be from car makers and through manufacturers of individual parts
• The Ulysses Group has strong ties to the U.S. military and promotes its capability
• The firm told Vice News in a statement it's not working for government 

 

20. Bum-Rushing Extremists From the Military Might Not Help

defenseone.com · by Todd C. Helmus, Ryan Andrew Brown, and Rajeev Ramchand

Excerpts:

“Finally, to help prevent military personnel and future veterans from joining extremist ranks, this former neo-Nazi recommends racial sensitivity training to develop cross-cultural understanding — especially for those who have never met people of other races or religions.

“Instead of taking a ‘don’t do this’ or ‘don’t do that’ approach,” he says, let troops “hear those human stories from people who can say, ‘Racism did this to me.’ That way people can feel empathy…Once you get past the dehumanization experience it is really difficult to harm that other person.”

Of course, Schoep’s views represent just one “former” perspective, albeit one with deep experience in the trenches of extremist groups. As the U.S. moves forward with research and action, voices like his can provide an inside perspective on how right-wing extremist organizations recruit within and prey on the military and veteran communities.”

 

21. Intelligence Agencies Warn Most Lethal Threat to US Is Homegrown

voanews.com · by Associated Press

 

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“Develop enough courage so that you can stand up for yourself and then stand up for somebody else.”

- Maya Angelo 

 

“Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.”

- C.S. Lewis

 

“Righting wrongs for which we haven’t been caught is the litmus test of who we are; it shows the core of our honor.”

- Anonymous