News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. The U.S. Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies

2. Why the International Order Is Tilting Toward Autocracy

3. In Suez Canal, Stuck Ship Is a Warning About Excessive Globalization

4. Negotiating [Im]plausible Deniability: Strategic Guidelines for U.S. Engagement in Modern Indirect Warfare

5. U.S. wages psychological war on Moscow - Russian defense adviser

6. Re-Budgeting for a Right-Sized International Counterterrorism Posture

7. Pentagon linguist pleads guilty to exposing U.S. intelligence sources to Hezbollah

8. New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

9. America Needs to Rediscover Strategic MacGyverism

10. 'Things really are very bad' — Biden navigates cyber attacks without a cyber czar

11. War is Changing. So Should the Pentagon’s Budget

12. Malign or benign? China–US strategic competition under Biden

13. Prosecutors struggle with consistent story in cases involving Capitol riot

14. Chronicles of an American Diplomat: John Quincy Adams

15. Under Biden, Diplomacy Is an Attractive Career Again

16. Stop asking the US military to fight terrorism and rebuild countries

17. U.S.-China sanctions battle escalating under Biden with focus on Xinjiang abuses

18. US-Taiwan coast guard partner to blunt potential Chinese invasion

 

1. The U.S. Doesn’t Know How to Treat Its Allies

Foreign Affairs · by Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon · March 26, 2021

Conclusion: Having allies requires sacrifices grounded in common values; it does not mean that other democratic countries must in every case do what the United States wants. The Biden administration should compromise on Nord Stream 2, securing concessions that mollify Central Europe and Ukraine, and then let go of this outdated concern. Far from showing that “America is back,” our uncompromising stance impedes the deepening of allied cooperation for our more important problems.

 

2. Why the International Order Is Tilting Toward Autocracy

Foreign Affairs · by Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon · March 26, 2021

This is the question I often wonder about: What comes next? What will replace the international rules based order? What will replace liberal democracies? 

Excerpt: "But if the current liberal international order is in trouble, what kind of illiberal order might emerge in its wake? Does an illiberal order necessarily mean competition for naked power among increasingly nationalist great powers, rampant protectionism, and a world hostile to democratic governance?"

Conclusion: “The good news is that there are few effective pro-corruption norms. Kleptocrats prefer to convince their citizens that everyone is equally corrupt and weaponize anticorruption measures against political opponents. Thus, opposition to corruption remains politically relevant in illiberal powers such as Russia and China, even as these countries increasingly use corruption strategically to buy off and capture elites, bureaucrats, and regulators overseas.

The success of efforts to develop an illiberal order does not mean that liberal powers lack opportunities to shape norms and institutions. No international order is homogeneous. There is nothing unusual about variations in arrangements and values across different regions or policy domains. Some aspects of contemporary liberal order, however, particularly in the economic domain, require reform lest they continue to undermine the viability of domestic liberal democratic institutions.

Indeed, policymakers interested in resisting challenges to liberalism need to prioritize its political dimensions, both at home and in intergovernmental settings. This means defending political liberalism in word and deed. It also means affirming, rather than undermining, its current normative foundation. Projects, such as former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s attempt to redefine human rights, that require attacking those foundations will only backfire—making the task of authoritarian powers that much easier.”

 

3. In Suez Canal, Stuck Ship Is a Warning About Excessive Globalization

The New York Times · by Peter S. Goodman · March 26, 2021

I think it will be damn hard to be the globalization genie back in the bottle.

Excerpts: “Three-fourths of all container ships traveling from Asia to Europe arrived late in February, according to Sea-Intelligence, a research company in Copenhagen. Even a few days of disruption in the Suez could exacerbate that situation.

If the Suez remains clogged for more than a few days, the stakes would rise drastically. Ships now stuck in the canal will find it difficult to turn around and pursue other routes given the narrowness of the channel.

Those now en route to the Suez may opt to head south and navigate around Africa, adding weeks to their journeys and burning additional fuel — a cost ultimately borne by consumers.

Whenever ships again move through the canal, they are likely to arrive at busy ports all at once, forcing many to wait before they can unload — an additional delay.

“This could make a really bad crisis even worse,” said Alan Murphy, the founder of Sea-Intelligence.

If the Suez blockade lasts for two weeks, as many as one-fourth of the containers that would normally be in European ports could be stalled.

 

4. Negotiating [Im]plausible Deniability: Strategic Guidelines for U.S. Engagement in Modern Indirect Warfare

ndupress.ndu.edu · March 19 2021

Another important contribution to the discourse on irregular warfare, political warfare, gray zone, indirect approach, etc...

Conclusion: “Concerns that the use of indirect attacks might disadvantage liberal democracies and incentivize them to adopt undemocratic and opaque policies to strengthen their position in geopolitical competition are misguided. Our analysis suggests that this mode of competition actually requires strengthening U.S. democratic principles rather than abandoning them. First, U.S. adversaries seek to exploit the deep polarization and mistrust in U.S. politics to advance their agendas, suggesting that efforts to build a more resilient, democratic society would also help undermine meddling by external actors. Second, by giving policymakers the space to respond deliberatively rather than capriciously, indirect attacks present an opportunity for liberal democracies to reduce tensions. Policymakers must seize this space to pursue diplomatic initiatives and to invest in tools for better understanding the systemic and cumulative effect of these indirect attacks in order to hold adversaries accountable, but without leading to escalation. In doing so, indirect attacks may actually reduce the level of conflict in the international system and reinforce the importance of democracy for peace in the world.” 

 

5. U.S. wages psychological war on Moscow - Russian defense adviser

Reuters · by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber, Andrew Osborn · March 25, 2021

Isn't this why Gerasmiov wrote about New Generation or Non-Linear Warfare that we have come to know as the Gerasimov? He believed that it was the US fomenting instability around the world (e.g., Arab Spring, Color Revolutions, etc) to justify US military intervention.

See Charles Bartles' excellent article: "Getting Gerasimov Right" 

Excerpt: “A new type of warfare... is starting to appear. I call it, for the sake of argument, mental war. It’s when the aim of this warfare is the destruction of the enemy’s understanding of civilizational pillars,” Ilnitsky, who advises Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, told the Spas TV channel.

Here are some excerpts from the Latvia Defence Academy summarizing the Gerasimov doctrine/New Generation Warfare. Non-linear Warfare. Little Green Men.

As a result, it follows that the main guidelines for developing Russian military capabilities by 2020 are:

i. From direct destruction to direct influence;

ii. from direct annihilation of the opponent to its inner decay;

iii. from a war with weapons and technology to a culture war;

iv. from a war with conventional forces to specially prepared forces and commercial irregular groupings;

v. from the traditional (3D) battleground to information/psychological warfare and war of perceptions;

vi. from direct clash to contactless war;

vii. from a superficial and compartmented war to a total war, including the enemy’s internal side and base;

viii. from war in the physical environment to a war in the human consciousness and in cyberspace;

ix. from symmetric to asymmetric warfare by a combination of political, economic, information, technological, and ecological campaigns;

x. From war in a defined period of time to a state of permanent war as the natural condition in national life.

Thus, the Russian view of modern warfare is based on the idea that the main battlespace is the mind and, as a result, new-generation wars are to be dominated by information and psychological warfare, in order to achieve superiority in troops and weapons control, morally and psychologically depressing the enemy’s armed forces personnel and civil population. The main objective is to reduce the necessity for deploying hard military power to the minimum necessary, making the opponent’s military and civil population support the attacker to the detriment of their own government and country. It is interesting to note the notion of permanent war, since it denotes a permanent enemy. In the current geopolitical structure, the clear enemy is Western civilization, its values, culture, political system, and ideology.

 

6.  Re-Budgeting for a Right-Sized International Counterterrorism Posture

thecipherbrief.com · by Matthew Levitt · March 18, 2021

Key point - tools cannot direct strategy.

Conclusion: "After twenty years of investing in exquisite and unique counterterrorism tools, America now risks falling behind the times by virtue of allowing tools to direct strategy. Seeking to avoid this classic disconnect between ends and means, policymakers on both sides of the political aisle are pressing for a rationalization of American’s counterterrorism posture around the world. Making this happen will demand that the White House urgently oversee and direct the necessary budgetary review to disentangle counterterrorism intelligence budgets from the kinetic military budgets on which they are currently grafted."

 

7. Pentagon linguist pleads guilty to exposing U.S. intelligence sources to Hezbollah

CBS News · by Caitlin Yilek

Human beings are hard to figure out. I guess there are people looking for love in all the wrong places. (Johnny Lee): 

 

But this incident would appear to cause great damage.

Excerpts: “That changed after Soleimani was killed by the U.S. The man was "very emotional and upset about the U.S. airstrikes, especially the death of [Soleimani], and he started to ask Thompson to provide 'them' with information about the human assets that had helped the United States to target" the Iranian commander, the court documents said. "Thompson understood 'them' to be Lebanese [Hezbollah]."

Thompson believed that if she did not pass on the classified information that her relationship with the Lebanese national "would come to an end" and he "would not marry her."

She then began accessing national defense information that she did not have a need to access or know and showing her notes containing the secret information to the man, the documents said. She handed over true names, personal identification data, background information and photos of clandestine human sources, and also passed on details of U.S. targets, court documents said.

 

8. New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · March 27, 2021

Wow. Now this is a conspiracy theory.

New conspiracy theory claims US Air Force shot down MH370 in a failed bid to intercept it and seize electronic equipment on its way to China

• Florence de Changy has been reporting and investigating MH370 since 2014
• The plane went missing on March 8, 2014, with the mystery never solved
• But the French author argues that the 'mystery' itself is the greatest con of all 
• In the 400-page book, de Changy argues that current theories are off the mark, and that there has been a combined effort to cover the truth of what happened
• Instead, she suggests the plane could have been downed by the US Air Force in an attempt to intercept the plane and confiscate cargo en-route to Beijing 

 

9. America Needs to Rediscover Strategic MacGyverism

The National Interest · by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands · March 27, 2021

Realism, constructivism, etc, and now "Strategic MacGyverism."

Excerpts: “Confronted with the fact that America had been missing in action in the world’s most important soft-power fight—the race to deliver coronavirus vaccines to the developing world—the administration turned to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Although the Quad’s original purpose was to regulate maritime security, it will now combine U.S. biotechnology, Indian production, Japanese financing, and Australian logistics to provide one billion doses of vaccine to Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, there are rumblings about an initiative to repurpose the Group of 7—a democratic forum focused on macroeconomic issues—as a tech coalition to deal with the pressing challenge of Chinese hegemony in the world’s telecommunications networks. That’s the sort of dexterity the United States needs.

New administrations often take months to methodically review policies and lay out long-term plans. That approach makes sense for a “superpower marathon” that won’t be settled for decades. But the pivotal phase of U.S.-China competition is arriving now. America needs a farsighted strategy to stay ahead of China throughout this century, but first needs to avoid losing crucial battles this decade.

Fortunately, the United States has the power and the historical precedent to turn things around. In the early-1980s, at the climax of the Cold War, Americans relied on a B-list actor to blunt a surge of Soviet aggression and carry the United States to victory. Now as a second cold war heats up, the United States should look to another subpar celebrity for guidance. The MacGyver Doctrine is ugly and uninspiring, the geopolitical equivalent of duct tape. But it is fast, effective, and quintessentially American.”

 

10. 'Things really are very bad' — Biden navigates cyber attacks without a cyber czar

Politico · by Natasha Bertrand

Excerpts: “Recognizing the massive task at hand in coordinating a national cybersecurity strategy, kicking out hackers and protecting government agencies against future attack, the White House has begun to warm to the creation of the NCD office, people familiar with the deliberations said — particularly because the office will be able to access resources, review budgets, and build a staff of up to 75 people to implement a national strategy in a way the NSC can not.

But deconfliction is still an issue. One option now being explored is to have Neuberger serve in both roles, and be dual-hatted as deputy national security adviser and National Cyber Director, said two people familiar with the discussions.

King said he would be opposed to that structure. “To say you’re going to make someone a NSC senior staff person and the NCD — I don't think that works. I hope they don't do that.”

Wherever the White House lands on this, a decision needs to be made soon, experts said.

“The NCD is needed to work the day-to-day deconfliction and institutionalize plans for preventing and, when that fails, responding to the next crisis,” Spaudling said. “And the next crisis could be tomorrow, so time is not on our side.”

 

11. War is Changing. So Should the Pentagon’s Budget

defenseone.com · by Scott Cooper

Excerpts: “Finally, budget planners should shift more manpower spending to fund enterprise digital platforms and applications that automate management, analysis, and auditing of the department’s administrative and financial information, thereby harnessing modern technology to drive effective, data-driven personnel and fiscal decisions.

Software is as important as any hardware. The Russian SolarWinds hack of 2020 is an example of the fact that we have not yet come to terms with the very real vulnerabilities of our computer systems. Chinese military doctrine calls for attacking U.S. command and intelligence systems, satellites, navigation systems, and even the American electrical power grid — such as was done this year in Mumbai. The universal opposition of the Defense Department to the license application of Ligado to build a 5G mobile communications network because it would “cause unacceptable operational impacts to the warfighter and adversely affect the military potential of GPS by negatively impacting GPS receivers” shows how crowded the electromagnetic spectrum is, how vulnerable it is to interference, and that investments must be constantly made to maintain the ability to use the spectrum.

Leaders in the Pentagon and Congress should identify and answer our true operational weaknesses. The United States is a global leader in software, data, and digital tools. It’s time the commander in chief and lawmakers ensure we harness them for national security.”

 

12. Malign or benign? China–US strategic competition under Biden

eastasiaforum.org · by Jia Qingguo · March 28, 2021

A view from an academic in China:

Conclusion: “Although the Biden administration’s approach to strategic competition is quite different from the Trump administration’s, it does not necessarily follow that China–US relations will stabilize and improve. How the Biden administration actually deals with the thorny issues between the two countries is yet to be seen. It will also depend on how China responds to US actions. Given the strong negative pubic sentiments toward each other, and their increasingly divergent domestic political practices, a truly benign strategic competition still remains difficult if not impossible to achieve.”

 

13. Prosecutors struggle with consistent story in cases involving Capitol riot

Stars and Stripes

Excerpt: "Authorities are still combing through a sea of evidence in what they say is likely the most complex investigation ever prosecuted by the Justice Department."

 

14.  Chronicles of an American Diplomat: John Quincy Adams

classicsofstrategy.com · by Patrick J. Garrity

Excerpts: “Boston was roiled between those supporting and those opposing efforts to retaliate by imposing significant economic restrictions on Britain, which in the opinion of the Federalists would likely lead to war. John Quincy reported to his father about these debates in Boston. Adams (father and son) agreed that British depredations were unacceptable, but opposed extreme retaliatory measures, such as the sequestration of British debts, which they deemed both unjust and likely to be ineffective. They believed that diplomacy was the best of bad choices and therefore supported Washington’s decision to appoint a special envoy to Britain, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Jay, to try to settle outstanding differences.

John Quincy’s views about American foreign policy were widely circulated outside Massachusetts. They found an especially appreciative audience in the presidential residence. Through these writings and personal meetings, President Washington had clearly formed a favorable opinion of the younger Adams. John Adams was careful not to promote his son, but it seemed likely that John Quincy would soon be rewarded with some official duty. He was — but it was an entirely unexpected position, which would determine the whole pattern of his life thereafter.

President Washington appointed John Quincy as Minister Resident to the Dutch Republic, one of America’s few overseas diplomatic posts—and did so during a time of grave national security crisis.”

 

15. Under Biden, Diplomacy Is an Attractive Career Again

The New York Times · by By Pranshu Verma· March 27, 2021

Excerpts: “In an interview, Ms. Spears said that she would not discourage diplomats of color from joining the Foreign Service, but that they should be aware that issues of race in the State Department were hard to change. 

A new president was not likely to solve the issue, she added.

“This isn’t an administration thing,” she said. “A lot of this is systemic, it’s behavioral, and it’s passed down from management.”

Uyen Vong, whose parents immigrated from Vietnam, said that she was applying to become a diplomat, in part because she felt the “new administration brings a lot of hope to people who were marginalized in the past.” She said she believed her family’s immigrant experience would be a powerful display of the country’s values. “I can represent America,” Ms. Vong said, “and I very much represent American values.”

Ms. Vong, who took the February Foreign Service exam, said that she was encouraged by Mr. Biden’s decision to make diversity a priority for the State Department, but acknowledged that there was “still more to be done.”

She said that State Department officials must cultivate diplomats as early as in high school and that more minority candidates must be promoted into higher-profile roles.

“When you see more faces that look like you,” she said, “I think it definitely will bring more people to work in public service.”

Interest in becoming a diplomat has grown, and President Biden’s outreach to other nations is appealing to aspiring diplomats, many of whom felt alienated by Trump policies.

 

16. Stop asking the US military to fight terrorism and rebuild countries

Business Insider · by Charli Carpenter

Excerpts: “The distinctions between civilian and combatant, between battlefield and home front and between unlawful combatant and POW rightly become irrelevant within such an architecture.

This was the world before 9/11; before then-President George W. Bush declared "war" on a band of criminals; before Congress authorized the use of force without due process against anyone, anywhere suspected by the US to be a threat; and before the U.S. military was erroneously tasked with transnational law enforcement, nation building and operational support in the world's various civil wars.

To be sure, where useful, members of the US military might be deployed under UN auspices to support peacekeeping missions. US special forces could become a useful adjunct for Interpol and/or any country willing to try alleged terrorists under universal jurisdiction.

But the military as an institution is not equipped to orchestrate the building of nations or effectively police transnational crime, nor should it be entrusted with these tasks. The attitude underpinning Pede and Hayden's article is itself an example of why.”

 

17. U.S.-China sanctions battle escalating under Biden with focus on Xinjiang abuses

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

 

18. US-Taiwan coast guard partner to blunt potential Chinese invasion

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 28, 2021

 

----------------

"One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill

 

 "What we do stems directly from what we believe."

- Millicent Fenwick

 

"A belief doesn't have to be true to be highly motivating, and it is one of the bitterest lessons of history that false or irrational beliefs are often the most powerful of all." 

-Dr. Mardy Grothe

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

 

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

The National Interest · by Michael Rubin · March 25, 2021

I think the reaffirmation of the "closer than lips and teeth" PRC-DPRK alliance recently is intended to directly counter the line of effort that is likely being considered in the new Korea policy. China will not contribute to solving US and ROK security challenges.

And of course the subtitle is correct: there is not silver bullet in dealing with north Korea.

 

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

The Washington Post · by Patricia M. Kim · March 27, 2021

The three challenges:

1. The U.S. and South Korea don’t fully agree on North Korea policy
2. China and Russia are added complications
3. The U.S. has few credible options left to coerce North Korea

A sobering conclusion: "These significant challenges to allied and regional coordination and the implementation of an effective North Korea policy suggest that the Biden administration and its counterparts are in for a difficult ride with Pyongyang — one that, barring a radical diplomatic intervention, will probably lead to a North Korea with greater nuclear and missile capabilities."

 

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

Business Insider · by Harry Kazianis

I recommend the administration attack the regime's strategy. Expose its long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy. I don't think any substantive negotiations can occur as long as Kim Jong-un thinks his strategies will achieve success (as they have for seven decades). Until we show Kim his strategies do not work he will continue to follow his current and historical regime playbook. If we want to negotiate with Kim we have to force him to recognize that he cannot play his long con with us.

 

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 27, 2021

If there is a crisis it will be the result of Kim Jong-un decision making and not US action.

But this is quite an accusation against the President:

“After his press conference, we now know that President Biden is thinking about Korea. Despite his contrary claim, it almost certainly is not his top priority. However, the latest North Korean missile tests require the administration to think seriously about how to engage the DPRK. While denuclearization might remain the president’s top priority, it should not be his only priority. Much good could be done while taking even a lengthy path toward denuclearization that never reaches its official objective.

​I do agree that denuclearization should not be the President’s top priority. - The Top priority for the Biden and Moon administrations should be achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia. That begins with resolving the "Korea question."​

 

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

This is such classic north Korean "diplomacy." It is deliberately stoking tensions as part of blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions.  The regime's actions and intent are so obvious. Why do we not call them out on it? We have to do so to make this strategy fail and force him to adopt a new one - ideally one that would be based on substantive working level negotiations and in accordance with the norms and standards of the international community. The only way north Korea can become a responsible member of the international community is by jettisoning its seven decades old strategy and concepts of operation. 

 

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · March 28, 2021

Just think this through. There is no doubt the regime fears the Korean people more than the US. Imagine how much electrical power it must take to keep this barrier electrified. Most of north Korea does not have 24 electrical power. Why are the Korean people suffering? Because of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy choices.

 

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

Again, classic north Korea actions. But why don't the press and pundits take this to the logical conclusion and expose the regime's bankrupt strategy and how we are complicit in the success of its strategy by our actions or non-actions? And the most important action is to attack the regime's strategy.

 

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

donga.com · March 26, 2021

The Korean military and intelligence communities are in a tough position trying to toe the Moon administration's peace agenda line of effort.

 

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

donga.com  · March 27, 2021

Probably the single most difficult friction point in the ROK/US alliance is the different strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (apologies to the horse for beating it so much).

 

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Yes but....

The only way for the local economy to work is to allow market activity but the regime is shutting that down.

 

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Hmmm.... a new submarine?

 

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

koreaherald.com · by Lim Jang-won · March 24, 2021

Hmmm... should be entertaining especially for those of us who served with these soldiers and sailors. 

 

“One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill

 

 "What we do stems directly from what we believe."

- Millicent Fenwick

 

"A belief doesn't have to be true to be highly motivating, and it is one of the bitterest lessons of history that false or irrational beliefs are often the most powerful of all." 

-Dr. Mardy Grothe

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Top general: Afghan forces need US troops to fight Taliban

2. FDD | Iran must come clean on its nuclear deception

3. United States Seizes Websites Used by Foreign Terrorist Organization

4. Opinion | Biden faces the world’s most dangerous problems in North Korea and Taiwan

5. US Army, Marines, Special Forces Eye Israeli ‘Hero’ Attack Drones

6. Officials Describe Special Operations Forces (SASC hearing 25 March 2021)

7. Why there will be no ‘Asian NATO’

8. SOCOM Shifting To Great Power Competition Strategy, But Needs More ISR Capabilities, Commander Says

9. How the Defense Department Can Move from Abstraction to Action on Climate Change

10. It's National Medal of Honor Day and Alwyn Cashe still doesn't have his

11. Rep. Andy Kim On State Department Racism: 'My Own Government Questioned My Loyalty'

12. Why Is U.S. National Security Run by a Bunch of Benchwarmers?

13. House lawmakers voice concern over how to address extremism in the military without clear data

14. Biden rallies old alliances behind new mission: Challenging China

15. Lawmakers Investigate State Department Over $1 Billion Ransom Payment to Iran

16. How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

17. U.S. military launched over 2 dozen cyber operations before 2020 election

18. Special Operations team in Pacific will confront Chinese information campaigns

19. Is China About to Deploy Private Military Companies in Central Asia?

 

1. Top general: Afghan forces need US troops to fight Taliban

The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · March 25, 2021

Excerpt:

Pressed by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) on whether he has presented the Biden administration with options to continue addressing counterterrorism threats in the region if U.S. troops withdraw from Afghanistan, Clarke demurred.

“There's been no decision made for Afghanistan, so I think it would be a hypothetical to know what we're going to do at this time,” Clarke said. “But we will always provide options for the Department of Defense.”

 

2. FDD | Iran must come clean on its nuclear deception

fdd.org · by Richard Goldberg · March 25, 2021

Excerpts:

Preventing undeclared nuclear activities is a fundamental nonproliferation principle that is supported by Republicans and Democrats. If the Biden administration returns to the JCPOA without resolving the problem of Iran’s undeclared activities, it would send a dangerous message and green light Tehran to advance a clandestine nuclear weapons program. North Korea will be taking notes given its own unresolved nuclear activities, and countries eying expanded nuclear programs, like Saudi Arabia, may learn the same lesson. A nuclear arms race in the Middle East could follow.

President Biden should deliver a clear message: There will be no sanctions relief for Iran without a full accounting. There should be no going back to a nuclear deal based on nuclear deception. To delude himself otherwise, Biden would repeat the mistakes of the past and slowly unravel the NPT framework, leading to a more dangerous world with more countries with nuclear weapons.

 

3. United States Seizes Websites Used by Foreign Terrorist Organization

justice.gov · March 25, 2021

 

4. Opinion | Biden faces the world’s most dangerous problems in North Korea and Taiwan

The Washington Post – by David Ignatius - March 25, 2021

Excerpt: Since Anchorage, Chinese think tanks have been using a phrase that means “hit, hit, talk, talk” to describe what’s ahead with the United States, according to one top sinologist. The “hit, hit” part of that formula carries significant risks — especially if China continues to believe that a weakened America isn’t ready to fight back.

 

5. US Army, Marines, Special Forces Eye Israeli ‘Hero’ Attack Drones

breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi

 

6. Senate Armed Services Committee Hearing – USSOCOM CDR

defense.gov · by David Vergun

When the transcript is publicly available I will forward that. The most important point made in this hearing came from General Clarke:

And then the last thing I'd -- I would hit in this area is the specific authority for our forces conduct unconventional warfare in this space. While I can take specific points in a closed session, that authority that allows us to work with -- with partner forces to increase both the resistance and resilience, working in the information space is absolutely critical.

But here are a few of the key excerpts from the hearing (implies a resistance operating concept for Taiwan).

HAWLEY: Good. Well I look forward to working with -- with you on that. General Clarke, let me come to you. The Baltic nations have spent some years honing their ability to conduct irregular warfare in the event that Moscow attempts to -- to seize a Baltic territory, so it won't be able to hold it. It's become a key part of their deterrence strategy, as you know, in the Baltic region.

I'm -- what I'm wondering -- why I'm asking about this is do you wonder, do you -- do you think that the Baltic model could be applied in Taiwan? In other woods -- words, would helping Taiwan improve its irregular warfare capabilities help it deter potential Chinese aggression?

CLARKE: Senator, bottom line, yes. We have worked closely with the Baltics. I have met with every Baltic SOC (ph) commander personally, and we have been engaged in the Baltics for a long time. But we also -- and I can talk more specifically in closed hearing, we remain close with capabilities for Taiwan.

HAWLEY: Do you think that it would be helpful to us, and should we be prioritizing helping Taiwan develop its irregular warfare capabilities?

CLARKE: Yes, Senator, I do think we should help them.

Key point here. According to the ASD SO/LIC he will continue to directly report to the SECDEF for civilian oversight and administrative control (ADCON) of SOF but the SECDEF is relooking iof the ASD SO/LIC should report to USD(P) on policy issues.

Mr. Maier, again what's the status today at the Department's assets to empower ASD SOLIC and what additional resources or authorities do you believe we need from the Congress?

MAIER: Thank you, Chairman.

So the current status is one that is SOLIC as a standalone organization both its policy components and its service secretary like our 922 component outside of OSD (ph) policy. Secretary Austin and Deputy Secretary Hicks are relooking that to see that continues to make sense.

I think one of the potential options is to determine a way to better integrate the policy components that were removed from SOLIC towards the end of the last administration back more integrated into policy but under no circumstances am I aware of any COAs that are being discussed that would remove the Service Secretary-like responsibility from remaining a principal staff assisting and a direct report up to the Secretary of Defense so I think your legislation has been very clear in that point.

As to progress to date, we continue to make progress I think on building the capability, in many cases in the form of expertise and people on the components in that administrative chain of command so the SSO or Secretary for Special Operations that was explicitly directed in the '21 NDAA is something we build to about 40 people at this point, and it includes a cross-section of expert from the budgeting world, the legislative world, the acquisitions world, really the -- if you will the nascent or core group of people that will perform that Service Secretary-like function.

But we are not at the point Chairman, of irreversible momentum at this point and we're not on the point of having something that is probably sufficient to do the roles that have been described in the -- in multiple NDAAs at this point.

Last thing I will say is, I do think the relationship with Special Operations Command is very strong. One of the things that General Clarke and I benefited from of having worked together on multiple occasions in the past, and I think that leadership connection helps to insure our staffs are proceeding in that direction of collaboration, partnership, and civilian-military relationships.

General Clarke has somewhat different views on 922. - ASD SO/LIC as an advocate for SOF - he seems to minimize the civilian oversight role

TUBERVILLE: Thank you.

General Clarke, Section 922 of the 2017 N.A. -- NDAA, which was signed into law by President Obama, made clear that the administrative chain of command for the Special Operations community runs from the president, to the secretary of defense, to ASDSOLIC, and then to you, the SOCOM commander. Prior to conducting congressional engagements, do you obtain approval from ASDSOLIC?

CLARKE: Mr. Secretary (sic), we work very closely with ASDSOLIC for -- to -- in the administrative chain of command for oversight, particularly for our budget and our acquisition. Mr. Maier and his predecessors provide that oversight. But it's also clear that my chain of command -- and Secretary Austin made this very clearly to me -- that my chain of command as a combatant commander runs to the secretary of defense, to the president.

TUBERVILLE: Yeah, thank you. And that's kind of my next question. Do you -- do you support the implementation of the law, and specific -- specifically, ASDSOLIC's absolute control over administrative matters such as legislative engagements, budgetary resource decisions, acquisitions, public affairs, personnel, legal accountability and other related authorities held by the traditional military service?

CLARKE: Senator, what -- what I believe is a key role for ASDSOLIC is actually to be an advocate for SOCOM, you know, within the department. And so when decisions are made about services and service budgets and service, you know, personnel decisions, having ASDSOLIC in the room to be able to be that advocate for us to me is the most important aspect that ASDSOLIC can do for SOCOM. You know, that goes back to the old adage: If you're not -- if you're not -- if you're not at the table, you become the lunch. And having ASDSOLIC in -- in and at that table, which -- which has occurred, has been very helpful.

TUBERVILLE: Thank you.

Mr. Maier, as I noted a moment ago, the law mandates that the administrative chain of command for SOCOM passes from the president, secretary of defense, ASDSOLIC, SOCOM commander. In the light of the clear chain of command, have you met with the secretary on administrative matters related to SOCOM?

MAIER: Senator, yes, I have, and I participate in the secretary's regular service secretary meetings. I also participate, or my staff participate in the series of governance meetings that the deputy secretary runs in order to do just as -- was already said by General Clarke, to both advocate, but for the administrative chain of command. We are responsible for both setting direction and ensuring execution and implementation consistent with the law.

TUBERVILLE: How often do you all meet, do you think?

CLARKE: The service secretaries meet at least twice a month. Obviously new administration, so different series of meetings. But every day, sir, there's meetings that I'm representing (inaudible) in that service secretary-like hat with the secretary, deputy secretary or their direct reports.

​Excellent to see General Clarke discuss conventional warfare here:​

BLACKBURN: Thank you -- thank you, Mr. Chairman. And General Clarke, thank you for the time and the conversation yesterday. We talked about 40 percent of SOCOM's forces are aligned to support the great power competition fight. That is a big increase.

So for the record today, I'd like for you to talk about the resourcing standpoint -- what do you need from this committee in terms of authority, advocacy, what do you need to engage in near peer competition from Beijing, and then let's talk a little bit about the posture that SOCOM has to counter these nefarious activities from the CCP, and where you are positioned there.

I think you can really do more with a lower dollar amount than the regular force. So love to just get your comments for the record.

CLARKE: Senator, thank you. You know, as pointed out, with about two percent of the Department of Defense budget, I think we are a very good return on our investment, with about three percent of the force. And the continued resourcing, specifically, you know, for SOCOM, so that we can modernize in the -- in this area, where -- where we can, you know, provide unique capabilities for our forces is critical. We have to balance both operations, readiness and modernization. The -- and -- the -- the continued support of this committee remains critical.

As we look at -- you -- you specifically asked about our employment and our capacity at 40 percent. That is exactly right. We -- we have in fact adjusted our forces to a sustainable presence against, you know, the persistent terrorist threats while at the same time rebalancing those forces across the globe.

As some of our near -- you know, some of our competitors are now global threats and not necessarily specific to Europe -- Europe or INDOPACOM. And so we continue to look where our forces are located across the globe so they can -- so they can counter, you know, those specific threats.

And then the last thing I'd -- I would hit in this area is the specific authority for our forces conduct unconventional warfare in this space. While I can take specific points in a closed session, that authority that allows us to work with -- with partner forces to increase both the resistance and resilience, working in the information space is absolutely critical.

 

7. Why there will be no ‘Asian NATO’

asiatimes.com · by Ken Moak · March 26, 2021

We tried NEATO, SEATO, CENTO. The conditions, cultures, politics, are very different in Asia than in Europe. We need a Quad and more importantly a Quad plu. But it cannot be an Asian NATO. And one of the major differences is that the Quad focus should be based on diplomatic, informational. and economic instruments as the main focus (and perhaps the economic instrument as the priority) that rests on a foundation of security cooperation but without an "alliance structure" and certainly without a combined military command structure.

 

8. SOCOM Shifting To Great Power Competition Strategy, But Needs More ISR Capabilities, Commander Says

news.usni.org · by John Grady · March 25, 2021

Great Power Competition in the space between peace and war (gray zone):

• Competition equals Political Warfare
• Most likely
• State on state warfare less likely
• Most dangerous
• We must be able to operate in the modern era of the Gray Zone and Political Warfare – Irregular Warfare
• But we must also support major theater state on state war –     
• not either/or but both/and

America may not be interested in irregular, unconventional, and political warfare but IW/UW/PW are being practiced around the world by those who are interested in them

With no apologies to Trotsky

 

9. How the Defense Department Can Move from Abstraction to Action on Climate Change

warontherocks.com · by Samuel Brannen - Sarah Ladislaw - Lachlan Carey· March 26, 2021

Excerpts:

While it may seem hard to believe now, in time climate change may be the most formidable and unpredictable adversary the Department of Defense has ever faced. U.S. adversaries typically have motivations that can be scrutinized and resource limitations that can be exploited. Their actions can be deterred. Runaway climate change would be merciless. The planet has no regard for borders or conventions or theaters of war. The changing climate will affect every aspect of life on Earth, and by extension, every facet of America’s strategic operating environment. In some instances, it will amplify existing security risks, while in others it will force the national security apparatus to consider new risks entirely. It will drain resources from military readiness and modernization within Defense Department budgets and as tradeoffs are made to fund other federal priorities in response to climate change.

Protecting the nation’s interests means proactively building a long-term climate action strategy with other branches of government, segments of society, and global partners — a theme ably picked up on by the newly released Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. It means more than hardening assets and bolstering resilience but building strategies to prevail in this new and uncertain future. Like many other entities in both the public and private sectors, the Department of Defense has been thinking about climate change as one item in a long list of global challenges, but not as the dominant global trend that will frame all other issues. The Biden administration’s early charge to make climate change a central priority gives the Department of Defense an opportunity to better understand a future that will create compounding stresses and challenges affecting its future as much if not more than a rising China.

 

10. It's National Medal of Honor Day and Alwyn Cashe still doesn't have his

taskandpurpose.com · by Haley Britzky · March 25, 2021

What are we waiting for? We need to get this done and properly honor this American hero.

 

11. Rep. Andy Kim On State Department Racism: 'My Own Government Questioned My Loyalty'

NPR · by Ari Shapiro · March 25, 2021

Hmmm... While this may be the Congressman's experience, we have Ambassador Sung Kim as the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific, former Special Envoy for north Korea and US Ambassador to South Korea. We have Dr. Jung Pak as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific. I know many Korean-American Americans working on Korean (and other) national security issues at State, Defense, and other government agencies.

I do not want to minimize the issue at all. I know it exists and I have heard this. I have also known many Americans who did not have a desire to work on issues of the country of their heritage and would rather not be compartmented into working such issues.

 

12.  Why Is U.S. National Security Run by a Bunch of Benchwarmers?

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer, Jack Detsch · March 25, 2021

Benchwarmers? I would not use that to describe the professionals I know who continue to serve in our government.

That said, yes we need to get all these positions filled. I just don't think we need to insult all the professionals to make the point. But it makes for a great clickbait title.

 

13. House lawmakers voice concern over how to address extremism in the military without clear data

Stars and Stripes

We do need to know the extent of the problem in order to solve it.  

 

14. Biden rallies old alliances behind new mission: Challenging China

Axios · by Dave Lawler

Our alliances are a critical source of power and influence.

 

15. Lawmakers Investigate State Department Over $1 Billion Ransom Payment to Iran

freebeacon.com · by Adam Kredo · March 25, 2021

Uh Oh. I had not seen any reporting on this.

 

16. How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-an-alleged-russianspyring-used-cold-war-tactics-11616701381?mod=flipboard – by Georgi Kantchev

How an Alleged Russian Spy Ring Used Cold War Tactics

Prosecutors say group in Bulgaria was tasked to gather classified information on NATO military alliance, CIA

 

17.  U.S. military launched over 2 dozen cyber operations before 2020 election

Axios · by Jacob Knutson

 

18. Special Operations team in Pacific will confront Chinese information campaigns

c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · March 25, 2021

Excellent development. I was not aware of this.

The Joint Task Force Indo-Pacific team will be focused on information and influence operations in the Pacific theater, a part of the world receiving much the military’s attention because of China’s growing capabilities.

The team is poised to work with like-minded partners in the region, Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of Special Operations Command, said before the Armed Services Committee. “We actually are able to tamp down some of the disinformation that they [China] continuously sow,” he said of the task force’s efforts.

 

19. Is China About to Deploy Private Military Companies in Central Asia?

jamestown.org · by Paul Goble · March 25, 2021

Interesting question and development.

 

"The printing press is the greatest weapon in the armoury of the moden commander..."

-  T.E. Lawrence, The Evolution of a Revolt, 1920

 

"If one wishes to influence American foreign policy, the time to do so is in the formative period, and the level is the middle level of bureaucracy – that of the assistant secretary and his immediate advisers.  That is the highest level in which people can still think.  Above that, the day to day operation of the machine absorbs most of the energy, and the decisions that are made depend very much on internal pressures of the bureaucracy."

- Henry Kissinger, Bureaucracy and Policy Making (1968)

 

"War in the age of technological integration and globalization has eliminated the right of weapons to label war and, with regard to the new starting point, has realigned the relationship of weapons to war, while the appearance of weapons of new concepts, and particularly new concepts of weapons, has gradually blurred the face of war. Does a single "hacker" attack count as a hostile act or not? Can using financial instruments to destroy a country's economy be seen as a battle? . . .Obviously, proceeding with the traditional definition of war in mind, there is no longer any way to answer the above questions. When we suddenly realize that all these non-war actions may be the new factors constituting future warfare, we have to come up with a new name for this new form of war: Warfare which transcends all boundaries and limits, in short: unrestricted warfare."

- Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing, 1999

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Six North Korean Soldiers Cross River Border to Escape to China

2. It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea

3. North Korean Survey Reveals More than 100 Deaths, 13,000 ‘Suspected’ COVID-19 Cases in One Province

4. North Korean border guards in Chagang Province seen wearing gas masks

5. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launch as 'destabilizing'

6. Joint task force cracks down on users of illegal cell phones in Hyesan

7. Moon slams North Korea’s missile test amid efforts for dialogue

8. Court awards damages from North, Kim Jong-un

9. North Korea Gives Biden a Missile Test—a Familiar Hello

10. US labeling mishap of ‘East Sea,’ ‘Sea of Japan’ fuels debate

11. As North Korea plots revenge over ‘spy’ extradited to US from Malaysia, assassinations and abductions may be next

12. N Korea confirms missile tests as Biden warns of response

13. South Korea should join the Quad: Korea Herald writer

14. Asking China to Solve the North Korea Problem Is Completely Foolish

15. Kim Jong Un aims his missiles at Biden

16. U.S. will 'respond accordingly' to North's escalation of tensions: Biden

17. N.Korean Spy on Trial 'Was Kim Jong-un's Liquor Runner'

18. New KN-23 ballistic missile to boost N. Korea's tactical nuclear capabilities: experts

19. ‘Business as Usual’: North Korea Restarts Ballistic Missile Tests

 

1. Six North Korean Soldiers Cross River Border to Escape to China

rfa.org

While everyone is focused on north Korean provocations (reported cruise missile and SRBM launches) I want to flag this incident (and some other recent ones) to make sure we continue to observe the indications and warnings for possible internal instability.

As we were working on the original planning for north Korean instability and regime collapse in the 1990's Bob Collins and I tried to determine what were the key conditions that would lead to internal instability and regime collapse. The two were the loss of the ability for the regime/party to govern all of north Korean territory from Pyongyang combined with the loss of coherence of and support by the military.  One of the early indicators of the loss of coherence would be small unit military defections/escapes.  While we have long seen individual soldiers try to escape it is a significant escalation of potential instability when (small) units do so together. There can be many reasons for the escape but the fact that a group of soldiers can conspire and act indicates conditions may be making them desperate to act and the three chains of control and command are breaking down - the first chain is the tradition military chain from general to private, the second chain of control is the political chain, and the third chain of control is the security chain.  When you combine this with other reports of CVOID outbreaks and other instability indicators it is imperative that the military and intelligence communities be alert for indications and warnings of instability along with indications and warnings of provocations and attack.

I am not predicting imminent collapse or that even the regime will eventually collapse. Kim continues to impose draconian population and resources control measures in the name of COVID mitigation but with the intent to crack down on anti-regime actions and potential resistance.  I will predict that if it does collapse it will be catastrophic. Therefore, we need to be as ready for this contingency as any of the others, most importantly because the conditions that lead to instability and collapse could lead to Kim Jong-un making the decision to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force under his rule to ensure survival of the regime.  Yes, I can be accused of being a chicken little screaming the sky is falling or the boy who cried wolf.  I will gladly accept all criticism if none of these scenarios play out.  But I am a worst case planner.

 

2. It Is Time for a Realistic Bargain With North Korea

Foreign Affairs · by Eric Brewer and Sue Mi Terry · March 25, 2021

If we embark on arms control negotiations we are agreeing to north Korea as a nuclear power and that it will keep its nuclear weapons.  We need to recognize that we are making a deliberate decision to allow the north to be a nuclear power.  If that is what we are willing to do I would offer that we should answer two key questions:

What do we want to achieve in Korea?

What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

I would also ask given what we assess to be the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime, would an arms control agreement alter the answers to these two key questions?

Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has (or will ever) abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has (or will) abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

All that said, I would not be opposed to arms control negotiation if (and only if) it was a line of effort as part of a superior form of a political warfare strategy that was focused on solving the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests.  

Conclusion:

An arms control approach might well meet the same fate as other failed U.S. strategies for dealing with North Korea, but the Biden administration should still test whether it can work. Last year was one of North Korea’s toughest since the famine of the 1990s. The measures that Kim took to save his country from COVID-19—including closing the border with China—did more economic damage than sanctions have done. Kim has not been easily swayed by economic pressure in the past, but it is possible he is desperate enough for sanctions relief—and confident enough in his existing nuclear and missile capabilities—that he would trade some limits on his weapons programs for a significant reduction in sanctions.

Such a strategy would not be risk free, and just because arms control aims for less doesn’t mean it will be any easier to achieve. Unlike the distant objective of total denuclearization, a limited arms control agreement would force tough, near-term tradeoffs with other U.S. policy goals. But given the failure of existing approaches, arms control is at least worth a shot. As long as Biden doesn’t make premature sanctions concessions in return for empty North Korean promises, the worst that can happen is that his administration winds up back where it started with the current containment regime.

 

3. North Korean Survey Reveals More than 100 Deaths, 13,000 ‘Suspected’ COVID-19 Cases in One Province

rfa.org

Of course, this is unvetted and so we must take this with a grain of salt.  We should be grateful to Radio Free Asia for being able to provide this kind of reporting from its contacts within north Korea.  But it is plausible and if true it could have dire consequences for the regime.  Another reason why we need to continue to observe for the full spectrum of indications and warnings from attack to provocation to internal instability.

 

4. North Korean border guards in Chagang Province seen wearing gas masks

dailynk.com – by Jang Seul Gi - March 25, 2021

Another unusual indicator.

Interesting:

Soldiers in the border buffer zone in Chunggang-eup, Chagang Province, were recently seen wearing full gas masks instead of medical masks. According to a source in the area, North Korean authorities ordered soldiers stationed on the border to wear gas masks to prevent infection by COVID-19 variants.

A source in Chagang Province told Daily NK on Mar. 24 that “soldiers started wearing gas masks on Mar. 15,” adding that “[The military] gave the gas mask order because the COVID-19 variant is different from ordinary viruses in that it is a ‘protein poison’ [RNA virus], so regular masks won’t filter it out.”

...

A North Korean defector familiar with the situation in North Korea said that “From what I heard, suspected COVID-19 cases have increased so much that [patients] can no longer be quarantined in [existing medical] facilities.” He further said that “It appears that North Korea is overreacting beyond the bounds of common sense because the pandemic has become so difficult to control.”
 

5. U.S. condemns N. Korea's missile launch as 'destabilizing'

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 26, 2021

We should not forget this is a violation of UN Security Council resolutions. These are actions that are not taken by responsible members of the international community.

Excerpt: "The United States condemns the DPRK's destabilizing ballistic missile launches. These launches violate multiple UN Security Council resolutions and threaten the region and the broader international community," a department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency in an email.

 

6.  Joint task force cracks down on users of illegal cell phones in Hyesan

dailynk.com – by Ha Yoon Ah - March 26, 2021

Not surprising.  We estimate there are 6.5 million smartphones in north Korea.  These are key for passing on economic information about market activity but obviously they are used for other things (passing on information, providing "funds" through the electronic transfer of cell phone minutes, and of course viewing K-dramas and other media from outside north Korea as well as smuggling and trafficking).

 

7. Moon slams North Korea’s missile test amid efforts for dialogue

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · March 26, 2021

The question is are these missile launches enough to cause the Moon administration to reevaluate its strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime?

 

8. Court awards damages from North, Kim Jong-un

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

This is good to see.

The buried lede here is that there are Koreans from the South actively supporting the Kim family regime to include those affiliated with the Moon administration.

Excerpts:

 

Following their successful lawsuit, Han and Noh requested that the Foundation of Inter-Korea Cooperation –– which since 2005 has collected royalties from South Korean companies using copyrighted North Korean materials on behalf of the North Korean state television service KCTV –– pay them the damages.   

The foundation is led by Im Jong-seok, President Moon Jae-in’s former Chief of Staff and current Special Advisor for Foreign Affairs and Special Envoy to UAE.   The accrued royalties, which totaled 1.6 billion won in 2018, are under court administration due to ongoing international sanctions against the North.   

 

9. North Korea Gives Biden a Missile Test—a Familiar Hello

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-gives-biden-a-missile-testa-new-but-familiar-hello-11616682497 - by Timothy W. Martin and Andrew Jeong

Of course, the tests may only be because they are necessary to advance their capabilities.  And if there are new capabilities, the regime did tell us they were developing new ones.

But as I have written I think we have to assesses these launches in the context of all statements and actions and in my opinion this is all about making the new Biden Korea policy DOA and to set the conditions for Kim's demand for sanctions relief if the Biden Administration want to move forward with negotiations of any kind.

I have previously provided a laundry list of potential responses.  I recall being a crisis action planning on the UNC/CFC/USFK staff back in the 1990 we used to generate responses across the elements of national power (even those outside the purview of the military element - we always tried to offer a holistic approach because reliance on one instrument is always insufficient.). I am sure the panners in Korea have quote a menu of options for recommendation.

 

10. US labeling mishap of ‘East Sea,’ ‘Sea of Japan’ fuels debate

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · March 26, 2021

I recall the time in 1997 or 1998 when we replaced all maps in current with the updated WGS 84 version. I was called on the carpet by a Korean general because it had the Sea of Japan on it as well as the Yalu river (which is the Chinese name for the river - the Korean name is Amnokgang). He demanded I get them replaced with corrected versions.  Of course, I could not meet his demand.

 

11.  As North Korea plots revenge over ‘spy’ extradited to US from Malaysia, assassinations and abductions may be next

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3126937/north-korea-plots-revenge-over-spy-extradited-us-malaysia – by Amy Chew

Extensive comments from me below (as well as my friend and National War College colleague Zach Abuza).

 

12. N Korea confirms missile tests as Biden warns of response

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · March 26, 2021

A "new" weapon: "KCNA quoted top official Ri Pyong Chol, who supervised the test, as saying that the new weapon’s development “is of great significance in bolstering up the military power of the country and deterring all sorts of military threats existing on the Korean Peninsula.”

 

13. South Korea should join the Quad: Korea Herald writer

straitstimes.com · by Robert J. Fouser · March 26, 2021

Concur.

Excerpts:

President Biden has put the Quad at the centre of his efforts to contain China's rising influence. On March 13, the leaders of the Quad held their first virtual summit and wrote an op-ed piece for the Washington Post.

The article focused on cooperation among the four nations on climate change and distributing Covid-19 vaccines.

Though the article did not mention China, the four leaders rejected the Chinese authoritarian model by stating, "We recommit ourselves, once again, to an Indo-Pacific region that is free, open, secure and prosperous."

Surely South Korea shares these goals. In the article, the four leaders invited other nations to join them. South Korea should accept the invitation immediately, not just out of national interest, but as an expression of its values as a leading democracy.

 

14. Asking China to Solve the North Korea Problem Is Completely Foolish

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 25, 2021

I do agree with Mr. Bandow. We cannot expect China to solve the national security problems of the ROK and US.

I think the recent reinforcement of the PRC-DPRK alliance this past week is one indicator that if the new Biden Korea policy relies on Chinese assistance then it is doomed to fail.  I think the renewal of the alliance is one indication the Chinese and the Kim family regime are working in concert to try to make the new policy DOA.

 

15. Kim Jong Un aims his missiles at Biden

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · March 25, 2021

Blackmail diplomacy: The use of threats, increased tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.  A line of effort of the regime's political warfare strategy.

 

16. U.S. will 'respond accordingly' to North's escalation of tensions: Biden

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

Accordingly. We must demonstrate strategic reassure and strategic resolve.  That must be the foundation upon which the Biden Korea policy will rest.

 

17. N.Korean Spy on Trial 'Was Kim Jong-un's Liquor Runner'

english.chosun.com

A liquor runner? Does one put that on his resume?

 

18. New KN-23 ballistic missile to boost N. Korea's tactical nuclear capabilities: experts

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 26, 2021

We still need to see accurate reporting on what systems were employed on Sunday and Thursday this week.

 

19. ‘Business as Usual’: North Korea Restarts Ballistic Missile Tests

csis.org · by Victor Cha · April 1, 2021

Like the scorpion and the frog.  north Korea is like a scorpion - "it is my nature."

 

"The printing press is the greatest weapon in the armoury of the moden commander..."

-  T.E. Lawrence, The Evolution of a Revolt, 1920

 

"If one wishes to influence American foreign policy, the time to do so is in the formative period, and the level is the middle level of bureaucracy – that of the assistant secretary and his immediate advisers.  That is the highest level in which people can still think.  Above that, the day to day operation of the machine absorbs most of the energy, and the decisions that are made depend very much on internal pressures of the bureaucracy."

- Henry Kissinger, Bureaucracy and Policy Making (1968)

 

"War in the age of technological integration and globalization has eliminated the right of weapons to label war and, with regard to the new starting point, has realigned the relationship of weapons to war, while the appearance of weapons of new concepts, and particularly new concepts of weapons, has gradually blurred the face of war. Does a single "hacker" attack count as a hostile act or not? Can using financial instruments to destroy a country's economy be seen as a battle? . . .Obviously, proceeding with the traditional definition of war in mind, there is no longer any way to answer the above questions. When we suddenly realize that all these non-war actions may be the new factors constituting future warfare, we have to come up with a new name for this new form of war: Warfare which transcends all boundaries and limits, in short: unrestricted warfare."

- Unrestricted Warfare, Beijing, 1999

Link: https://mwi.usma.edu/how-small-wars-fit-into-big-ones-lessons-from-the-masters-of-irregular-warfare/

 

An interview with Dr. John Arquilla and MG John Brennan (1st Special Forces Command CDR)

 

Dr. John Arquilla is Distinguished Professor of Defense Analysis at the US Naval Postgraduate School. In addition to publishing multiple books and articles on warfare, he has extensive experience advising military practitioners and policymakers, ranging from special operations teams during field problems to senior Department of Defense policymakers in Washington, DC. Today’s conversation is motivated by his book, Insurgents, Raiders, and Bandits: How Masters of Irregular Warfare have Shaped Our World.

Major General John Brennan is the commander of the US Army’s 1st Special Forces Command. Maj. Gen. Brennan has deployed and commanded units at every echelon between detachment and task force level in support of Operations Enduring Freedom, Iraqi Freedom, Inherent Resolve, and Freedom’s Sentinel over the course of thirty-one years of service. He is a graduate of North Carolina State University, the Air Command and Staff College, and the Army War College fellows program at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

 

ASD SOL/LIC Statement HERE

USSOCOM Commander Statement HERE

United States Special Operations Command and United States Cyber Command

Date: Thursday, March 25, 2021Time: 09:30 AM Location: Room SD-G50, Dirksen Senate Office Building

https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/21-03-25-united-states-special-operations-command-and-united-states-cyber-command

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

​1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

3.Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

 

1. Inside Biden’s private chat with historians about his FDR mentality

Axios · by Mike Allen

 

2. Gray is Here to Stay: Principles from the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance on Competing in the Gray Zone

mwi.usma.edu · by Kevin Bilms · March 25, 2021

An important essay today.

America must embrace its irregular warfare capabilities and be able to compete in Great Power Competition where dominant ' 'fight" is best described as political warfare.  Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare (and by DODD 3000.7 and the IW annex to the NDS consists of CT, FID, UW, COIN< and stability operations).

Although I am heartened by the author citing some of Bob Jones important work on unconventional deterrence I am disappointed he did not point out one of the most important sentences in the interim guidance: "We will maintain the proficiency of special operations forces to focus on crisis response and priority counterterrorism and unconventional warfare missions." Unconventional warfare is the foundation of irregular warfare and conventional warfare is at the root of the two SOF trinities: irregular warfare, unconventional warfare, and support to political warfare and the second being the comparative advantages of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indefgeigenous forces and population.

 UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.

UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) un.

UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of a population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it is an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP.

I am heartened to see the Biden administration use unconventional warfare when there are so many antibodies out there against it.

But I also commend Congress for providing the best description of irregular warfare that will never be adopted by the doctrine gatekeepers on the Joint Staff.  In the 2018 NDAA it wrote: Irregular Warfare is conducted “in support of predetermined United States policy and military objectives conducted by, with, and through regular forces, irregular forces, groups, and individuals participating in competition between state and non-state actors short of traditional armed conflict.” 

 

3. Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

I wonder if some poor congressional staffer will be fired for providing bad information to a Congressman.

 

4. Big New Interceptor Deal Part Of Biden Missile Defense Push

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “While NGI remains in development, “our overall missile defense and defeat posture can be reoriented to regional threats, specifically that of complex and integrated air and missile attack from the likes of China,” Karako said.

After weeks of defense officials warning that North Korea could re-start its missile testing program after a long hiatus, the country’s reclusive leader, Kin Jong-Un, ordered a test firing of what a Biden administration official called a “short-range” missile system last weekend. The official, speaking with reporters late Tuesday, said the missile type isn’t subject to U.N. Security Council resolutions. Because it falls under the threshold of what concerns the international community, the official said that “it probably gives you an indication of where it falls on the spectrum of concern.”

The Missile Defense Agency has estimated that testing of the NGI could happen by the mid-2020s, and if all goes well they could begin to be put into silos by 2028.

 

5. Iran's alleged suicide boat plot against Washington DC is far-fetched as hell

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 24, 2021

Sure it seems far-fetched. But that is what analysts thought in 1995 when the Al Qaeda laptop was captured in Manila that described plans to kill the Pope and POTUS, bomb aircraft in flight (which did happen to a Northwest Airlines flight that had to make an emergency landing in Okinawa after a small device exploded), and use commercial aircraft to fly into buildings in the US.

As Sun Tzu said, "Do not assume the enemy will not attack.  Make yourself invincible."

 

6. Islamic State kills hundreds in massacres across the Sahel

longwarjournal.org · by Caleb Weiss · March 23, 2021

Are we paying attention?

 

7. Reaffirming and Reimagining America’s Alliances

state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State

I strongly believe in our alliance structure. 

 

8. The Taiwan Emergency, Explained by a Top Commander

National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 24, 2021

Video at the link.

 

9. China’s Damaging Influence and Exploitation of U.S. Colleges and Universities

The National Interest · by Chad Wolf · March 21, 2021

I understand we are down to about 50 Confucius Institutes from about 105. I am not sure if that is correct but I recently saw those numbers discussed.

We have to strike the right balance between academic freedom, protecting our values, and effectively employing our soft power for influence, and China's nefarious activities using all means available to do damage to the US way of life.

 

10. Pentagon says ‘all options on the table’ as lawmakers push to take sexual assault prosecutions out of chain of command

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 24, 2021

We have not been sufficiently effective in stopping this scourge so we have to do better.

 

11. The Coming Demographic Collapse of China

The National Interest · by Gordon G. Chang · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “China now has a crisis. “Once it slips below 1.5, a country falls into the trap of low fertility and is unlikely to recover,” said He Yafu to the Communist Party’s Global Times. China is already well below that figure.

Beijing does not believe China’s population will begin to decline until 2028. Some believe it in fact began contracting in 2018, something evident by falling births.

In any event, as the official China Daily stated in December, “the trends are irreversible.”

That’s not good for the People’s Republic of China. As analyst Andy Xie wrote in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post this month, “Population decline could end China’s civilization as we know it.”

 

12. Exercise Chameleon 1-21 (UK Special Forces) | SOF News

sof.news · by Pat Carty · March 24, 2021

 

13. A hard time for democracy in Asia

eastasiaforum.org · by Larry Diamond · March 23, 2021

Excerpts: “The United States and its liberal democratic allies, such as Australia, Canada, the European Union and hopefully Japan, must work through diplomacy and aid flows to preserve civil society groups and independent media. These democracies will have more impact if they coordinate their activities and prioritise the diffusion of technologies to help democrats evade digital surveillance and censorship. In some instances — and sadly for Hong Kongers — established liberal democracies may need to provide a temporary or even long-term home for democrats at risk.

In the near term, the priority may need to be containing the democratic retreat and countering the rise of authoritarian China. In some countries, this means just trying to keep democrats alive. But the growing demands of young people in the region for more open and accountable government offer hope that this authoritarian moment will have an expiration date.”

 

14. Retired Green Beret, a recent CIA contractor, denied bond after allegedly taking part in Capitol riot

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 24, 2021

Hmmm...not a good look for the regiment.

 

15. Relentless ops vs. ASG played role in rescue of Indo captives

pna.gov.ph · by Priam Nepomuceno · March 24, 2021

 

16. Filipino troops kill rebel commander, rescue last hostage

AP · by Jim Gomez · March 21, 2021

Excerpt: “The militants have been considerably weakened by years of military offensives, surrenders and battle setbacks but remain a national security threat. They set off a security alarm in the region in recent years after they started venturing away from their jungle encampments in Sulu, a poverty wracked Muslim province in the largely Roman Catholic nation, and staged kidnappings in Malaysian coastal towns and targeted crews of cargo ships.”

 

-------------------

 

"Deterrence is still fundamentally about influencing an actor's decisions. It is about a solid policy foundation. It is about credible capabilities. It is about what the U.S. and our allies as a whole can bring to bear in both a military and a nonmilitary sense."

- C. Robert Kehler

 

"Deterrence works.  Until it doesn't." 

- Sir Lawrence Freedman

 

"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."

 - General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms