News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden

2. US touts ambassador’s historic visit to Taiwan, despite China’s ‘red line’ threat

3. Closer Taiwan-US ties are stabilising the region, not the opposite

4. Former US military adviser’s tweets help injured Afghan pilot get surgery

5. U.S. defense officials reassure Ukraine of support amid tension with Russia

6. Opinion | What if the former CDC director is right about the Wuhan labs?

7. Historic Marine Plan to Reinvent The Corps EXCLUSIVE

8. The United Kingdom Doubles Down on Covert Operations

9. FDD | A Diplomat’s Trip to Taiwan Draws the Ire of the CCP

10. The three Rs: A case officer perspective on future CIA-special operations forces relations

11. One of Army’s first female Rangers speaks during Founders Day dinner

12. A Future Chinese Indian Ocean Fleet?

13. Violent Extremism in America: Firsthand Accounts

14. Analysis: How Russian hackers were able to access DHS secretary’s email

15. What Is DevSecOps, Anyway?

16. Let’s Get Real About US Military ‘Dominance’

17. America Is Four Years Away From Being Outmatched By China

 

1. Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden

Bloomberg · by Isabel Reynolds · April 2, 2021

Excerpts: “Suga, a diplomatic novice, has come under pressure, including from lawmakers in his own party, to join other major democracies in imposing sanctions on China over human rights abuses against the Uyghur ethnic group in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang.

The U.S., Canada, the European Union and the U.K. have all imposed such economic penalties, spurring calls for Japan to follow suit, particularly with the Group of Seven summit in the U.K. coming up in June. While Japan has expressed concern about the situation in Xinjiang, it lacks a legal framework to impose sanctions.”

 

2. US touts ambassador’s historic visit to Taiwan, despite China’s ‘red line’ threat

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Such meetings are likely to continue and involve other governments when possible, to judge from other statements this week by U.S. officials.

“We're also working to enlarge Taiwan's ability to interact with the international community in a way that reflects Taiwan's potential contributions,” U.S. Charge d'Affaires Mike Goldman, the top American diplomat in Australia pending the absence of a Senate-confirmed ambassador, said in a newly released Australian National University National Security College podcast.

Those efforts have intensified during the pandemic, particularly following China’s successful insistence that Taiwan remain barred from participating in World Health Assembly discussions of the emerging public health crisis — an “appalling” exclusion, Goldman said.

“We're also committed to supporting Taiwan's ability to have its legitimate voice heard in international fora,” the diplomat said.

 

3. Closer Taiwan-US ties are stabilising the region, not the opposite

lowyinstitute.org · by Natasha Kassam

Excerpts: “China’s calculation about Taiwan’s future will shift as the confidence of the PLA grows. This situation is made more dangerous by what appears to be a looming gap in perception, as China sees itself as becoming more powerful while the US is in terminal decline.

In this context, it would be possible for US support to cross an invisible line in Beijing’s eyes. Some have called for the US to change its approach to Taiwan from “strategic ambiguity”, where it remains unknown whether the US would defend Taiwan if attacked, to “strategic clarity”, where the US makes explicit it would respond to any use of force against Taiwan. This change risks undermining decades of successful deterrence, and carries a high risk of escalation, where China’s leaders would no longer see time as on their side.”

 

4. Former US military adviser’s tweets help injured Afghan pilot get surgery

Stars and Stripes · by JP Lawreence and Zubair Babakarkhail · April 1, 2021

The power of twitter and a committed military advisor.

Excerpts (and advice for all professionals committed to the mission): “Taking care of your people is the primary duty of any military officer, and regardless of whether I am with him or not, if I had the capability to do something, I was going to,” he said.

 

5. U.S. defense officials reassure Ukraine of support amid tension with Russia

upi.com · by Christen McCurdy · April 1, 2021

 

6. Opinion | What if the former CDC director is right about the Wuhan labs?

The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · April 1, 2021

"unpleasant facts."

Conclusion: “If Redfield is right, that would mean China bears some accountability for the outbreak, which will greatly complicate already tense relations. If Redfield is right, that would also mean the U.S. government had a big role in supporting the research that resulted in the pandemic outbreak. If Redfield is right, the current response plan could greatly increase, not reduce, the risk of another pandemic.

These are all very unpleasant facts. But facts are stubborn things. And we have no choice but to pursue all possible theories and accept whatever truth the facts lead to. This must be done in a nonpolitical way, to show Beijing and the world that we still have the ability to place public health and truth above the narratives to which we have become beholden.

 

7. Historic Marine Plan to Reinvent The Corps EXCLUSIVE

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

Excerpts: “Changes of the scale that Berger is proposing won’t come without a fight however.

Over the past two years, the commandant has outlined by far the most sweeping changes to the size and composition of his force of any of the Joint Chiefs, and will have to make that case again this spring to Congress when the 2022 budget is released. Recently, Berger sent a memo to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin advising him he will not request any more money in the 2022 budget.

To pay for these new drones, ships, and missiles, Berger has said he plans to divest of the Corps’ inventory of Abrams tanks and shed 12,000 Marines, along with towed artillery, aircraft and helicopters. He has also pledged to reduce the number of F-35s in squadrons while questioning the role the aircraft will play in his plans going forward. Those ideas will now run into the desires of members of Congress with jobs, and prestige at home, on the line.

 

8. The United Kingdom Doubles Down on Covert Operations

mwi.usma.edu · by Rory Cormac · April 2, 2021

Conclusion:  Perhaps these answers lie in more detailed documents that remain classified; perhaps not. But if covert operations are to succeed, policymakers need to think carefully about three things: First, what do they actually want covert operations to achieve? What does success look like? Clear and concrete objectives are essential, as is a recognition that disruption alone does not solve problems. Covert operations need to be integrated into broader policy. Second, policymakers need to balance this integration and interdepartmental coordination with the need for a quick and flexible response—a challenge that has proved difficult in the past. Third, parliament’s oversight bodies need to play a greater role in monitoring special operations activity, especially the use of partners and proxies. While pragmatism is essential in international relations and irregular warfare more specifically, picking the wrong proxies can be disastrous. The reviews are a good start to many of these issues. But the devil will be in the details.

 

9. FDD | A Diplomat’s Trip to Taiwan Draws the Ire of the CCP

fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Other diplomatic moves may be in the works as well. On March 25, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced a bipartisan bill led by Republican Rep. Young Kim and Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, both of California, urging the State Department to restore Taiwan’s observer status at the World Health Organization. Taiwan had such status until 2017, when Beijing forced it out of the WHO. During a press briefing the day after the bill was introduced, the CCP’s Hua blasted the bill as a “serious breach of the One China principle” and urged the U.S. “not to help the Taiwan region to expand its so-called ‘international space.’

”The U.S. and Taiwan also signed a memorandum of understanding this week that will pave the way for greater coordination between their respective coast guards. The intent is to make the porcupine a bit pricklier should Beijing seek to take it in the near future. The increased cooperation is also intended to serve as a response to the CCP’s increasingly hostile maritime actions. Naturally, Hua was not amused, telling reporters that the U.S. should “stop official exchanges and military interactions with Taiwan and be prudent on Taiwan-related issues.” Hua also urged “Taiwan not to try to add to its importance by soliciting U.S. support.”

The increasing tension is easy to see. Speaking at China’s annual National People’s Congress earlier this week, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Biden administration that the CCP’s claim on Taiwan is an “insurmountable red line” that shouldn’t be crossed.

It may only be a matter of time until the CCP decides to erase the red line altogether.

 

10. The three Rs: A case officer perspective on future CIA-special operations forces relations

Washington Examiner · by Marc Polymeropoulos · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “I view this issue from the unique perspective of my old job as a CIA case officer in the field, where the rubber meets the road with a front-row seat to how we both collect intelligence and fight. I suggest that we look at the three Rs, relationships, resources, and Russia (and similar foes), as we assess the future CIA-SOF relationship.

...

True, there are challenges to overcome. This shift may take a change in mindset for SOF because there is no kinetic finish component to such operations. Truth be told, the "three F" fight had become a drug for many of us in both outfits. We relished the finality of the finish portion, as the target was neutralized and one less terrorist was alive to threaten our fellow citizens. The near-peer world is not like this at all, and SOF will need to adapt. For example, manhunting on near-peer entities is just one part of an operation. Compartmentalization, or person-to-person limitation of access to intelligence, will necessitate that SOF units may never know the fruits of their labor. If SOF obtained a pattern of life profile for a Chinese intelligence officer and then passed this targeting package to the CIA for a potential recruitment approach, it is likely that SOF will never know the results. There are no Zero Dark Thirty movies made after conducting a month of surveillance on a hostile intelligence officer.

I'm confident these three Rs can be the foundations of the future CIA-SOF relationship. We proved to be outstanding partners in the two decades following 9/11, and there is no reason why this relationship should not flourish in the post-2021 environment.”

 

11. One of Army’s first female Rangers speaks during Founders Day dinner

dvidshub.net · by Jorge Garcia

Good words and lessons, Ranger. One of my most vivid memories of the swamp phase at Ranger School is carrying the M60 through the swamp, the sling breaking, and the blank adapter and leaf spring coming off. The previous M60 gunner received a major minus spot report for losing the blank adapter. Fortunately we came to a halt on one of those little islands in the swamp and I was able to repair the sling (550 cord) and get the leaf strong reattached and secured and the blank adapter tightened down. Murphy was all over us at that time.

 

12. A Future Chinese Indian Ocean Fleet?

warontherocks.com · by Christopher Colley · April 2, 2021

Conclusion: Overall, China’s increasing ties to the Indian Ocean and beyond have expanded enormously over the past two decades, and in a future post-COVID-19 world, this will continue. Chinese analysts and government entities are increasingly calling for some form of Indian Ocean fleet/force that can protect and project China’s interests. Crucially, based on the available evidence consisting of port infrastructure projects, various statements from the government and China-based scholars/analysts, as well as new naval hardware, it appears that China does intend to develop some sort of Indian Ocean force. While China will never establish full sea control in the Indian Ocean, it will likely possess the ability to provide a credible deterrent to other states that may threaten Chinese sea lines of communication or entities. However, while China increasingly has the surface combatants to conduct meaningful power projection in the Indian Ocean and has even carried out live-fire exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, critically the PLAN lacks the requisite protection of air power. Beijing will eventually solve the hardware component of its “Indian Ocean Dilemma.” However, the political dilemma of what to do about bases and, of greater strategic importance, what to do about the growing security relationship between India and the United States, which is driven by Chinese activities, may prove to be the biggest obstacle to China’s long-term Indian Ocean ambitions.

 

13. Violent Extremism in America: Firsthand Accounts

rand.org · by Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, Liisa Hiatt

The 135 page report can be downloaded here.  

 

14. Analysis: How Russian hackers were able to access DHS secretary’s email

wtop.com · by J.J. Green · March 29, 2021

Excerpts: “The problem, according to the source, is that top nation-state hackers, such as Russia and China, never reuse those IP addresses — thus, they circumvent the system designed to detect them.

The DHS spokesperson said, “As we consider lessons learned, we have identified a number of steps we must take to modernize federal cybersecurity defenses and build back better. We have shared these lessons learned with the White House and other agencies, so that they can be fully integrated into cybersecurity modernization efforts.”

The Einstein system cost approximately $5.7 billion, but according to some national security sources, it was never intended to do what some expect it do, all by itself.

It is supposed to work with components deployed by other U.S. national security agencies.

However, there are concerns that some of those agencies may not want to expose what they know about certain cyber threats because then the actors behind them might disappear, eliminating their ability to be tracked.

 

15.  What Is DevSecOps, Anyway?

defenseone.com · by Gerry Morelli

Excerpts: “By replacing a waterfall culture with a DevSecOps culture, the Air Force’s CVA/H DANS effort combined three independent contracts—feature development, product delivery, and sustaining fielded systems—and merged them into one unified work structure. The program, which had released just two new versions in three years of waterfall operations, released four versions in its first year as a DevSecOps effort.

All in all, this experience reminded us of a simple, but important point: just calling a program Agile doesn’t make it Agile, but when it’s done right, Agile paired with DevSecOps gets the job done in some pretty impressive ways.”

 

16. Let’s Get Real About US Military ‘Dominance’

defenseone.com · by Collin Meisel

Actually I am not sure this is really the case. I think most military planners are worst case planners and do not assume that we are superior in every case. This is why the military continues to try to pursue new capabilities and concepts because there is the belief that our adversaries will develop counters or new capabilities of their own. Despite all the rhetoric in the media, I do not think our military leadership assumes our superiority and certainly not across the board. 

 

17. America Is Four Years Away From Being Outmatched By China

The National Interest · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · April 2, 2021

Conclusion: “The Indo-Pacific is vitally important to the US, both in terms of the economy and national security. Currently, the region accounts for 60 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, and if current rates of economic and population growth continue, by 2031, the region will contain 2/3 of the world’s economy and population.

China might be the biggest threat to US national security but it’s also the largest opportunity. Conflict with Beijing isn’t predestined nor necessary. However, a potent US military and strong regional and global partnerships are crucial in deterring China.

 

-------------------

 

When (John F.) Kennedy became president, the Special Forces numbered about 2,000 and had as their primary mission the organization of guerrilla units behind enemy lines during conventional war. BY the late 1950s, the Special Forces mission had begun to take on certain features of counterinsurgency. Kennedy accelerated this transformation, upgraded the Special Warfare Headquarters at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to the Special Warfare Center under a brigadier general, authorized the wearing of the green beret, and increased Special Forces strength to about 12,000 by 1963. He also insisted that Green Berets be trained not only in counterguerrilla operations but in civic action, engineering, communication, sanitation, medicine, and a variety of other skills that would win the allegiance of the people in countries requiring Special Forces assistance. The president pushed through these measures over the objectives of many U.S. officers who found elite units distasteful and who believed any well-trained soldier could perform the unconventional tasks assigned the Green Berets.

 - Lawrence W. Yates

 

"History is like philosophy teaching by examples."

- Dionysius

 

"If every prospective writer on international affairs in the last twenty years had taken a compulsory course in elementary strategy, reams of nonsense would have remained unwritten." 

- E.H. Carr, The Twenty Year Crisis, 111.

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Denuclearization will be at center of new N. Korea policy: State Dept.

2. U.S. 'very much open' to feedback from allies on N. Korea policy

3. Reaching Underground Believers & Guiding Others in Flight: Silent Partners Assist North Koreans under Caesar’s Sword

4. North Korea’s Dangerous Pursuit of Tactical Nuclear Weapons

5. Cheong Wa Dae seeks Moon-Biden summit in April: sources

6. South Korea, Japan reaffirm trilateral cooperation with US for peninsula peace

7. N. Korea demands Japan's apology, compensation for wartime atrocities

8. Kim Jong Un’s Long Game Starts With Short-Range Missiles

9. North Korea Tops Agenda for US-Japan-South Korea Meeting

10. Open Letter to President Moon Jae-In from Seoul Peace Prize Laureate

11. Report: Pyongyang left secret agents, smugglers in Malaysia after diplomatic withdrawal

12. About half of foreign embassies closed in N. Korea amid COVID-19 restrictions: Russian Embassy

13. North Korean hackers are now using a fake security company to target researchers

14. Korea Foundation Sponsors N.Korean Propaganda Art Show

15. Younger generations turning away from liberal ruling party

16. North Korea Can Put Nuclear Warheads on Its Missiles: Report

17. Pompeo regrets Trump administration ‘didn’t make more progress’ with North Korea

18. When It Comes to Nukes, Is It the North Koreans Who Are Irrational—Or Us?

19. North Korea’s “tactical-guided” ballistic missile test is no joke for Biden and South Korea

20. Prioritizing Humanitarian Aid in the Era of Denuclearization

 

1. Denuclearization will be at center of new N. Korea policy: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 2, 2021

Yes, denuclearization of north Korea has to be an organizing principle for our policy for many reasons. Of course the pundit class is already criticizing this and we can see among them who is willing to appease the regime and allow them to be a nuclear power.

But the real question is how to denuclearize the north? As I written time and time again: We must solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

The bottom line is the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. Again, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

We must have a policy and strategy that is not myopically focused on denuclearization and instead must be broadly focused on the full spectrum of the Korea challenges from provocations and proliferation to illicit activities and human rights while always prioritizing deterrence and defense against the very real possibility of a north Korean attack.

 

2. U.S. 'very much open' to feedback from allies on N. Korea policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 2, 2021

The administration is putting its money where its mouth is: Alliances are the priority in US foreign policy.

Key point: (and this is important because the policy cannot be static and must be adjusted based on continuous assessment of the strategic assumptions and the geopolitical and security conditions. And most importantly it will require coordinated execution so close consultation is paramount.)

Excerpt: “Still, the administration official said the U.S. will continue to consult closely with its Asian allies even after its ongoing North Korea policy review comes to a conclusion.”

 

3. Reaching Underground Believers & Guiding Others in Flight: Silent Partners Assist North Koreans under Caesar’s Sword

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

Reverend Tim A. Peters discusses Pyongyang’s systemic suppression of its Christian population and how silent external partners provide them assistance and hope. The event was moderated by HRNK Executive Director Greg Scarlatoiu.

See the 1 hour and 13 minute video here:  

Below is a detailed article by Tim about the work being done in north Korea. This is outside testimony that supports many of the conclusions not only in the UN Commission of Inquiry from 2014 but also the recent State Department report on human rights in north Korea.

 

4. North Korea’s Dangerous Pursuit of Tactical Nuclear Weapons

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · April 1, 2021

We should never forget the ultimate objective of the regime - to dominate the Korean peninsula and if necessary it will use force to do so. The regime believes its WMD are merely tools for warfighting and will be employed to achieve its strategic objectives.

 

5. Cheong Wa Dae seeks Moon-Biden summit in April: sources

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 2, 2021

Competition with Japan.

 

6. South Korea, Japan reaffirm trilateral cooperation with US for peninsula peace

theedgemarkets.com · April 1, 2021

This is critical to the outcome of the north Korean problem and for security in Northeast Asia.

 

7.  N. Korea demands Japan's apology, compensation for wartime atrocities

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 2, 2021

No surprise here: A key theme and message from the north's Propaganda and Agitation Department. And if there are ever talks between the north and Japan this will be one line of effort to extort money from Japan in return for the very little information it has to offer about what happened to Japanese abductees.

 

8. Kim Jong Un’s Long Game Starts With Short-Range Missiles

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong and Timothy W. Martin

Yes these are useful for provocations below the threshold that will generate a catastrophic response from any of the regional countries to include Russia and China. But we need to understand the regime is developing weapons to be able to fight a war. These weapons are designed specifically for the north Korea named "fat target" (Camp Humphreys. Osan Air Base, and Cheongju Air base). This is why deterrence and defense must be the foundation of ROK/US alliance strategy. We must not be complacent because we have deterred a resumption of hostilities since 1953.

Unfortunately this conclusion sums up our collective challenge with a new policy to deal with north Korea: “At the end of this cycle, there will be a stalemate with North Korea again, said Cho Tae-yong, a former South Korean deputy foreign minister, who worked as the counterpart to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken when the latter served in the Obama administration.”

 

9. North Korea Tops Agenda for US-Japan-South Korea Meeting

voanews.com · Steve Herman · April 1, 2021

I am curious why Annapolis is the venue for this meeting. Is there any significance? 

 

10. Open Letter to President Moon Jae-In from Seoul Peace Prize Laureate

english.chosun.com · by Suzanne Scholte

From my friend and fellow board member of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, Suzanne Scholte. She does not pull her punches when it comes to human rights.

Human rights is a moral imperative and a national security issue. It must be a major line of effort of ROK/US alliance policy and strategy.

 

11. Report: Pyongyang left secret agents, smugglers in Malaysia after diplomatic withdrawal

malaymail.com · by Ashman Adam · April 2, 2021

Of course they did. Who would expect otherwise?

 

12. About half of foreign embassies closed in N. Korea amid COVID-19 restrictions: Russian Embassy

en.yna.co.kr · by 우재연 · April 1, 2021

Another data point for the indications and warnings list.

 

13. North Korean hackers are now using a fake security company to target researchers

siliconangle.com · by Duncan Riley · April 1, 2021

The regime's all-purpose sword continues to evolve its tactics, techniques, and procedures.

 

14. Korea Foundation Sponsors N.Korean Propaganda Art Show

english.chosun.com · April 2, 2021

What is the Korea Foundation thinking? I guess it was not. It relied on the art director.

 

15. Younger generations turning away from liberal ruling party

The Korea Times · April 2, 2021

Changing politics in Korea. Is this sufficient for substantive political change?

 

16. North Korea Can Put Nuclear Warheads on Its Missiles: Report

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 1, 2021

 

17. Pompeo regrets Trump administration ‘didn’t make more progress’ with North Korea

foxnews.com · by Morgan Phillips

It is because north Korea has a vote and it will be exercising that vote with the Biden administration as well.

 

18. When It Comes to Nukes, Is It the North Koreans Who Are Irrational—Or Us?

Esquire · by Jack Holmes · April 1, 2021

So easy to criticize especially when you are not the man in the arena.

Actually in my opinion neither are irrational. We need to understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Given the nature of the regime its objectives and strategies are not irrational. And if we would approach north Korea with the deep understanding necessary we would not be irrational. We need to devise our policy based on the reality of north Korea and as we would wish it to be. To do otherwise would be irrational.

 

19. North Korea’s “tactical-guided” ballistic missile test is no joke for Biden and South Korea

thebulletin.org · by Duyeon Kim · April 1, 2021

Important analysis from the always thoughtful Duyeon Kim.

 

20. Prioritizing Humanitarian Aid in the Era of Denuclearization

nkhiddengulag.org  · by Sophia Hapin · April 1, 2021

Excellent essay from an HRNK intern.

Conclusion: “In terms of national security interests, engaging in the call for relief can also support change within the regime. According to Ambassador Robert R. King, former Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues and HRNK Board Member, exposing North Korean civilians to humanitarian officials will “increase the flow of information about the outside world,” thereby challenging North Korean propaganda’s antagonistic image of the United States.[20] Even the slightest influence grants the possibility for a civil society to emerge and demand the protection of all human rights.

Denuclearization strategies against North Korea must remain intact, especially as the regime seeks to provoke President Biden with increased missile tests and nuclear developments. However, the United States and its allies as well as the UN must additionally uphold their own moral obligations as champions of the UN Declaration of Human Rights to promote security and protect all lives, not just those of the citizens in their own countries, but also of the individuals who endure daily oppression and abuse under Kim Jong-un’s regime.

 

--------------

 

When (John F.) Kennedy became president, the Special Forces numbered about 2,000 and had as their primary mission the organization of guerrilla units behind enemy lines during conventional war. BY the late 1950s, the Special Forces mission had begun to take on certain features of counterinsurgency. Kennedy accelerated this transformation, upgraded the Special Warfare Headquarters at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to the Special Warfare Center under a brigadier general, authorized the wearing of the green beret, and increased Special Forces strength to about 12,000 by 1963. He also insisted that Green Berets be trained not only in counterguerrilla operations but in civic action, engineering, communication, sanitation, medicine, and a variety of other skills that would win the allegiance of the people in countries requiring Special Forces assistance. The president pushed through these measures over the objectives of many U.S. officers who found elite units distasteful and who believed any well-trained soldier could perform the unconventional tasks assigned the Green Berets.

 - Lawrence W. Yates

 

"History is like philosophy teaching by examples."

- Dionysius

 

"If every prospective writer on international affairs in the last twenty years had taken a compulsory course in elementary strategy, reams of nonsense would have remained unwritten." 

- E.H. Carr, The Twenty Year Crisis, 111.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Opinion | How Russia and China are attempting to rewrite cyberworld order

2. The U.S. system created the world’s most advanced military. Can it maintain an edge?

3. SOCOM is committing itself to attracting more women and people of color

4. China’s disinformation on Xinjiang is political warfare, not diplomacy

5. US Army Ready to Roll Out Futuristic Goggles to Larger Force

6. The Longest Telegram: A Visionary Blueprint for the Comprehensive Grand Strategy Against China We Need

7. Opinion | The Cold War's Lessons for U.S.-China Diplomacy

8. Can Myanmar’s Protesters Win?

9. US Ambassador Makes First Visit to Taiwan in More Than 40 Years

10. Dissidents shudder at China's attempt to challenge US concept of human rights

11. National Security Needs Both Futurists and Traditionalists

12. FDD | Russia and China Seek to Tie America’s Hands in Space

13. Russian Troop Movements on Ukraine Border Test Biden Administration

14. DHS chief lays out actions to strengthen cybersecurity in wake of major hacks

15. Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

16. Learning to Fly: How the US Military can Fix the Problems Plaguing Aviation Advising Missions

17. Should USSOCOM be its own military branch? A Navy SEAL weighs in

18. Intel Owns Red: How Red Teaming Can Prepare the Fleet for the Fight Ahead

19. Former Intelligence analyst pleads guilty to disclosing classified information to reporter

 

1. Opinion | How Russia and China are attempting to rewrite cyberworld order

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · March 30, 2021

Quite a conclusion: “Largely thanks to our efforts, information security has become an item on the U.N. General Assembly’s agenda,” Putin boasted in a statement to Russia’s Security Council. “We believe it is necessary to conclude universal international legal agreements designed to prevent conflicts and build a mutually beneficial partnership in the global cyberspace.” That language is chilling, when you realize he’s talking about rules written largely by China and Russia.

It’s breathtaking, really. The nations that have subverted the Internet most aggressively now want to police it, setting their own standards. Fighting back in this case requires patience and persistence — and a willingness to sit through endless meetings where the order that the United States and its global partners created a generation ago is under slow, relentless attack.

 

2. The U.S. system created the world’s most advanced military. Can it maintain an edge?

The Washington Post · by Missy Ryan · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Experts point to bright spots for the military, including Special Operations forces’ ability to partner with the private sector via a separate procurement system, or the rapid development of explosive-resistant vehicles to protect troops at the height of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Those conflicts, which have consumed military attention for two decades — with little relevance to today’s competition with China — represent another aspect of the challenge.

“We’re sort of a victim of our own success coming out of the unipolar moment, not feeling particularly stressed or challenged for a long period of time,” said Ryan Hass, a former White House official who is now a China expert at the Brookings Institution.

“For a lot of senior military leaders, feeling that strategic stress from an adversary that’s a near-peer competitor is not a place that they have spent a lot of their career,” he said. “So there probably hasn’t been the same sense of urgency and alarm.”

 

3. SOCOM is committing itself to attracting more women and people of color

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · March 31, 2021

 

4. China’s disinformation on Xinjiang is political warfare, not diplomacy

aspistrategist.org.au · by Jake Wallis · April 1, 2021

Politics is war by other means (or as Mao said - war is politics with bloodshed and politics is war without bloodshed.)

Key points: “The CCP doesn’t need to win over the West. It just needs to convince the rest of the world that democracy is in decline and that their future is best served in Beijing’s strategic orbit.

Democratic states must understand that when the party-state’s officials, state media and covert propaganda operate in coordination with economic coercion and sanctions to suppress and pre-emptively censor international criticism, they are not dealing with diplomacy but are facing a salvo in the political warfare being waged by the CCP.”

 

5. US Army Ready to Roll Out Futuristic Goggles to Larger Force

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker · March 31, 2021

 

6. The Longest Telegram: A Visionary Blueprint for the Comprehensive Grand Strategy Against China We Need

warontherocks.com · by C. Lee Shea · April 1, 2021

Conclusion: “The task today in this respect is both clear and straightforward. It is to compete with China without rivalry, to treat Beijing as an adversary bent on our destruction without regarding it as an enemy, to mobilize against the greatest-ever threat to America’s existence while keeping the proper sense of proportion, and to embrace cooperation while carefully avoiding, for lack of a better term, cooperation.

As distinguished students of Chinese civilization appreciate, the Mandarin character for “crisis” is the same word for “opportunity.” Indeed, for the United States, the China crisis is also an opportunity — a chance to crack open the proverbial fortune cookie that providence has delivered to Washington alongside the potluck of great-power competition, and to reflect on the whispers of wisdom within. In this respect, there can be little question that Washington and Beijing are now taking the first steps on what could prove to be a long, happy journey. In doing so, both must remember that success is not a destination but the journey itself — and that every flower blooms in its own sweet time.”

 

7. Opinion | The Cold War's Lessons for U.S.-China Diplomacy

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: “This history has important implications for American strategy today. Expect a period of danger in the near-term, which may — if the U.S. holds its ground against Chinese tests and provocations — eventually yield the sobriety that enables more constructive diplomacy. In the interim, it won’t pay to chase resets or grand bargains; better to focus on narrow but important areas, such as climate change, where transactional cooperation may be possible. By fortifying alliances and investing in the tools of geoeconomic and technological competition, the U.S. can create positions of strength that can pay diplomatic dividends in the future.

Most important, diplomacy should be considered a competitive tool in its own right — a way of managing critical diplomatic and political coalitions, keeping the costs and risks of rivalry manageable, and helping the U.S. stick with a fundamentally competitive strategy long enough for it to work.

The frosty exchange in Alaska need not spell the end of Sino-American diplomacy. But it is a reminder that diplomacy must be viewed as ruthlessly and realistically as any other aspect of the U.S.-China rivalry.”

 

8. Can Myanmar’s Protesters Win?

thediplomat.com · by Tom Fawthrop · April 1, 2021

And how can we help them?

We have "pilot teams" in the form of selfless NGOs operating in Burma. Can we capitalize on their great work?

Excerpts: “In just two months it is hardly surprising that the protest movement, despite massively successful boycotts and a general strike, has yet to topple one of Asia’s most entrenched and feared armed forces. But what they have achieved is the isolation of the regime, which is now floundering in a post-coup quagmire and hoping to somehow shoot their way out of the crisis.

No one knows if there are army captains or colonels who enjoyed Myanmar’s period of opening up and the economic growth of the last decade from 2011 until the coup – and are now seething with a secret anger. Are they quietly calculating the right moment to join the Spring Revolution, either as defectors or leaders of a mutiny?

What will be the end-game in Myanmar? It’s too soon to tell, but history has taught us not to count out the determination of the people, whether in Myanmar, the Philippines, or Timor-Leste. It could still be that Min Aung Hlaing is the one left scrambling for an exit strategy when all is said and done.”

 

9. US Ambassador Makes First Visit to Taiwan in More Than 40 Years

thediplomat.com · by Eleanor Albert · April 1, 2021

Excerpt: "As expected, the official line from Beijing emphasized the one-China principle as the foundation of ties between Beijing and Washington, adding that the Taiwan question is the most sensitive issue in the bilateral relations. In light of the U.S. ambassador to Palau’s visit to Taiwan, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian offered a more pointed rebuke: “It must stop any official interaction with Taiwan, refrain from sending any wrong signals to Taiwan independent forces, stop any attempt to cross the bottom line, and properly handle Taiwan-related issues with prudence, lest it should damage China-U.S. relations as well as peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.” Still, it seems clear that the Biden administration is set on a course to reinforce and elevate its partnerships in part to stymie moves by Beijing that it perceives as coercive."

 

10. Dissidents shudder at China's attempt to challenge US concept of human rights

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 31, 2021

Universal human rights is not a solely US concept. It is an international concept as described in the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights. 

This should not be a contest between the US and PRC. It is a "contest" of right versus wrong.

 

11. National Security Needs Both Futurists and Traditionalists

warontherocks.com · by Zachary Kallenborn · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “Technology as an Element of National Power-Technology is clearly at the core of most military power. Technology enables the acquisition, improvement, and sustainment of military capabilities. A dirigible fleet might have made some sense in 1921, but states have fighter aircraft, bombers, and helicopters now. These capabilities matter for hard power-based strategies too. Deterrence requires a state to have the capability to follow through with a threat. Nuclear deterrence is the ultimate expression of how technology shapes military power and strategy because it revolves around the possession of nuclear weapons enabled by submarines, missiles, bombers, and other supporting systems. Whether a particular technology actually matters is an important question, but technology is still central.

Better technology also means more demand for and impact in foreign military assistance. States benefit more when they are provided with cutting-edge weapons. Military assistance can also help the United States and others improve and build relationships with weapon recipients and exercise influence. After the success of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Ukraine bought the system from Turkey too. Providing drones and other weapons to a state creates a level of dependency for future maintenance, parts, and upgrades.

Technology also enables diplomatic power in other ways. In 2010, I lived in a poor neighborhood in Damascus, Syria, and yet I could easily buy the latest Hollywood blockbusters from a shop down the street. The film was bootlegged, to be sure, but computers, the internet, and DVDs made possible its presence in a Damascus slum. More broadly, American and Soviet Union battles over propaganda, news, and culture during the Cold War were only possible because of the radio. The voice of America needs a megaphone to be heard across the globe.

Technology also helps build and transform economies. Computers and the internet are a particularly extreme example. In 2018, Apple became the first publicly traded company worth $1 trillion and crossed $2 trillion in market value in 2020. Microsoft hit the $1 trillion mark in April 2019 and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, followed in January 2020. That wealth helps enable specific levers of influence like economic sanctions.

Conclusion: "Technology is just one element of national power. The American government must consider how technology best serves its objectives in conjunction with other capabilities. That means the government needs folks to think about the implications of emerging technology, just as it needs folks to think about global changes in trade regimes, international organizations, and military strategy. Creating an artificial divide between emerging technology and everything else is a mistake."

 

12. FDD | Russia and China Seek to Tie America’s Hands in Space

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: “Washington should also advance nascent efforts to establish rules of the road in space. “There are really no norms of behavior in space,” Gen. John Raymond, the chief of space operations at U.S. Space Force, said this month. “It’s the wild, wild West.”

In a notable and positive step, the U.N. General Assembly passed a British-introduced resolution in December that seeks to establish “norms, rules and principles of responsible behaviours” in space, which could reduce the chances for dangerous miscalculation.

The vote was 164 in favor, including the United States—and a mere 12 opposed.

Any guesses regarding who voted no? You guessed it: China and Russia. They were joined by their friends Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela, and Cuba.

So much for a Chinese and Russian desire to pursue constructive and peaceful policies in space. Their duplicity continues.”

 

13. Russian Troop Movements on Ukraine Border Test Biden Administration

WSJ · by Thomas Grove in Moscow and Alan Cullison

Excerpts: “In Moscow, the Kremlin blamed Ukraine for the uptick in violence. Mr. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said Russia fears Ukraine could trigger renewed fighting between Kyiv forces and Russian-backed separatists.

“We express our concern over growing tensions and the possibility that Ukraine may take provocative actions which could lead to war,” he told journalists during a briefing Wednesday.

A Russian news presenter and one of the Kremlin’s chief propagandists, Dmitry Kiselyov, accused the U.S. of using Ukraine as an excuse to create a new conflict with Russia, ratcheting up anti-American rhetoric to levels heard during the 2014 conflict.

“The West is preparing for nothing less than war with us,” he said in a dramatic interlude during his News of the Week program on state television Sunday.

 

14. DHS chief lays out actions to strengthen cybersecurity in wake of major hacks

The Hill · by Maggie Miller · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: “Bloomberg News reported Wednesday that the order will require companies doing business with the federal government to disclose if they were hacked within days of an incident, and increase federal agency security through enhanced encryption and multifactor authentication.

Anne Neuberger, President Biden’s deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology, said in a statement provided to The Hill by the White House on Wednesday that details around the order will be shared “soon.”

“We will have an executive order shortly that will make fundamental improvements to national cybersecurity,” Neuberger said. “We are consulting with the private sector extensively in developing the executive order and have set our goals for cybersecurity improvements to be aggressive and achievable. Many of the measures in the executive order will be long overdue and we look forward to sharing them with the American people soon.”

 

15. Top Attack: Lessons Learned from the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil · April 1, 2021

 

16. Learning to Fly: How the US Military can Fix the Problems Plaguing Aviation Advising Missions

mwi.usma.edu · by Tobias Switzer · April 1, 2021

Excerpts: “As a start, the military services should give aviation advisor commanders executive-level courses on contracting and international arms sales. Tailored briefings on security cooperation, acquisitions, and defense contractor management must follow. Combatant and component commands also should design future aviation advisor organizations to include more robust contracting oversight as well as foreign area officers. These changes would help shore up the personal and organizational deficiencies commanders face.

The term that came up consistently in my interviews was “ad hoc.” Across the Department of Defense, there is no proven method for building a partner nation’s aviation forces in the middle of an insurgency. Until there is one, commanders will both lead an improvised team of military advisors and defense contractors and employ their own inventive and enterprising approach to the mission.

For us, there was an upside to the uncertainty and complexity of commanding an aviation advisor organization—license. As Brad Bridges describes it, “It was up to me to figure it out. Despite all of its frustrating elements in getting support, it was the most autonomy I had in my career. I was given latitude to make it happen, which was refreshing.” Almost all of the former aviation advisor commanders I interviewed expressed similar sentiments. I also embraced the freedom. But considering the ad hoc nature of the way the US military organizes its advisors and resources to conduct aviation security force assistance, dysfunction and failure are never far away.”

 

17. Should USSOCOM be its own military branch? A Navy SEAL weighs in

sandboxx.us · by Frumentarius · March 31, 2021

Another "maintain the status quo" view. Nothing to see here. SOCOM can and should evolve. It can do so effectively without becoming another service. But it needs new authorities and of course as Congress has noted. improved civilian oversight.

​

18. Intel Owns Red: How Red Teaming Can Prepare the Fleet for the Fight Ahead

cimsec.org · by Christopher Blake and Lieutenant Grace Jones · March 30, 2021

As a side note the Army is closing its University of Foreign Military and Cultural Studies (UFMCS) in September. This where the best red team education occurs in the Army.

 

19. Former Intelligence analyst pleads guilty to disclosing classified information to reporter

CNN · by Caroline Kelly

Excerpt: “The release from the Justice Department did not specify who the reporter was or what outlet they worked for. The indictment also did not name the reporter or news organization, but information included in the document appeared to refer to Jeremy Scahill, a co-founder of the investigative news outlet The Intercept.”

 

------------

 

"Assessing China’s growing power incorrectly has always proved to be hazardous. US policymakers have underestimated China’s power at least twice since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, once catastrophically and another time with serious consequences for US credibility. . . Accurately assessing the power of China is still a critical task today, especially with renewed tensions on the Korean Peninsula and continuing volatility in the Taiwan Straits "

- David Lampton, Johns Hopkins, 2010

 

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”

-Theodore Roosevelt, Strenuous Life

 

“There is a big difference between motion and action. Just because you get out of bed doesn't mean you are making progress. Taking action requires decisiveness, dedication, and clear direction.”

-Farshad Asl

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. UN Panel of Experts Report on north Korea

2. Russia says Pyongyang facing severe shortages

3. North’s hackers stole $316 million, says UN report

4. U.S. says it will hold North ‘accountable’ for human rights abuses

5. S.Korea Must Be Prepared for All Possible N.Korean Threats

6. N. Korea likely to conduct more KN-23 variant missile tests to replace Scud missiles: think tank

7. Now for the hard part: Biden in new chapter of North Korea saga

8. N. Korea steals over US$300 mln to support weapons development in 2020: UN panel

9. N. Korean airline publishes flight schedule to China, but no flight detected yet

10. Cheonan sinking being reinvestigated per request of ‘conspiracy theorist’

11. Ruling party distancing itself from President Moon

12. Japan’s bigger presence adds complexity to NK nuke talks

13. Good deal, bad deal or no deal (Korea)

14. Pyongyang's Secret: There Is No Strategy

15. Moon administration receives failing grade

16. White House: Biden does not intend to meet with N. Korean leader

17. Is Korea policy too important to be left to the Americans? by Mark Tokola

18. White House official says U.S. review of North Korea policy in 'final stages'

19. It’s Time to Act, Not React, on North Korea

 

1. UN Panel of Experts Report on north Korea

The 419 page report (60 pages of main text and the remainder in annexes) can be downloaded from the UN web site here.  

There is a lot to digest in this report and the sanctions experts are doing so and we will see thorough analysis in coming days.

A couple of things. The names of the panel members are redacted for security reasons.

Although there is a lot of interesting information and useful data it appears Russia and China are still working to suppress the most damaging information.

Note the north Korean - Iran cooperation: “25. The Panel continued to investigate allegations concerning the cooperation between the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran on ballistic missiles. In its previous reports,17 the Panel reported on the continuous involvement of representatives of the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation in the Islamic Republic of Iran and on technical cooperation between the two countries in this field. According to a Member State, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Islamic Republic of Iran have resumed cooperation on long-range missile development projects (see annex 19). This resumed cooperation is said to have included the transfer of critical parts, with the most recent shipment associated with this relationship taking place in 2020 (see annex 19-1). In an interim reply of 21 December 2020, the Islamic Republic of Iran stated that: “Preliminary review of the information provided to us by the Panel indicates that false information and fabricated data may have been used in investigations and analyses of the Panel” (see annex 19-2).

 

139. Consistent with its previous reporting, the Panel continues to observe and

investigate individuals and companies linked to the Democratic People’s Republic of

Korea that, to facilitate sanctions evasion activities related to maritime sanctions, the

importation of luxury goods, illicit labour and the laundering of proceeds related to the

theft of virtual assets, predominantly target and use financial institutions in China. 119

Moreover, corporate service providers continue to facilitate, both wittingly and

unwittingly, the sanctions evasion activities of the Democratic People’s Republic of

Korea. 

 

Virtual assets and virtual asset service providers

156. The Panel continued its investigations into cyberactivities of the Democratic

People’s Republic of Korea that target financial institutions, virtual assets and virtual

asset service providers. Based on a review of publicly available information and

information provided by Member States, the Panel continues to assess that

cyberactors linked to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea continued to

conduct operations against financial institutions 135 and virtual currency exchange

houses in 2020 to generate revenue to support its weapons of mass destruction and

ballistic missile programmes. According to one Member State, the total theft of virtual

assets by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, from 2019 to November 2020,

is valued at approximately $316.4 million. 

 

2. Russia says Pyongyang facing severe shortages

asiatimes.com · by AT Contributor · April 1, 2021

It is obvious the Kim family regime is not using the proceeds from its myriad illicit activities as outlined in the UN Panel of Experts Report to ease the suffering of the Korean people living in the north.

 

3. North’s hackers stole $316 million, says UN report

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

A useful summary of the UN panel of Experts report.

 

4. U.S. says it will hold North ‘accountable’ for human rights abuses

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

The question is how? Human rights must be a major line of effort in the Administration's new Korea policy.

 

5. S.Korea Must Be Prepared for All Possible N.Korean Threats

english.chosun.com

And to do that it must first recognize and accept the full spectrum of threats. This means revising its strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

 

6. N. Korea likely to conduct more KN-23 variant missile tests to replace Scud missiles: think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 1, 2021

The military must test and train in preparation to field and deploy. What this should indicate to us is that this is a key conventional warfighting capability that will be critical to the success of the nKPA campaign plan should Kim decide the conditions are right for execution.

 

7. Now for the hard part: Biden in new chapter of North Korea saga

The Korea Times · by Robert Manning · April 1, 2021

Unfortunately north Korea gets a vote on the new policy.

Conclusion: "With all those caveats, expect that some effort at nuclear diplomacy will be one result of Biden's North Korea policy review. But judging by Pyongyang's escalating threats and looming missile tests it will be a wild ride of mini-crisis after mini-crisis. At the end of the day this new chapter in the North Korea story is more likely to be about how to live with a de facto "Nuclear North Korea."

 

8. N. Korea steals over US$300 mln to support weapons development in 2020: UN panel

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 1, 2021

This is the attention getting headline but there is more information in the report. And most importantly, we can judge regime intent and long term objectives from the information in the report. The regime has no intention of reducing the threat or of ever giving up its nuclear weapons program.

 

9. N. Korean airline publishes flight schedule to China, but no flight detected yet

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 1, 2021

An indicator that the north intends to soon restart trade with China.

 

10. Cheonan sinking being reinvestigated per request of ‘conspiracy theorist’

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee

This is very sad: “The Cheonan was a naval corvette which sank in the Yellow Sea near South Korean-controlled Baengnyeong Island on March 26, 2010, following an explosion that caused the ship to break in half. Fifty-eight crewmembers were rescued, and 46 perished. The JIG, a South Korean-led multinational investigative group, issued a summary of its findings in May of the same year. It concluded that the Cheonan sank due to a non-contact underwater explosion, which the group blamed on a North Korean torpedo which detonated close enough to the stern section of the hull to cause severe damage. Shin, who claimed that the Cheonan sank after running aground before he joined the JIG, continued to write articles for his own online media outlet after the findings were released, saying that the then-conservative government fabricated the cause of the sinking.  

As a result, Shin was indicted for defaming the military and JIG members. Although being found guilty and sentenced to eight months’ imprisonment in February 2016, he won his appeal in October last year. The appeals court acknowledged that his articles were false but said defamatory intent had not been proved. The fact that the commission accepted Shin’s petition for an inquiry into the sinking provoked outrage.”

 

11. Ruling party distancing itself from President Moon

The Korea Times· by Kang Seung-woo · April 1, 2021

It will be a difficult year for Korean politics.

 

12.  Japan’s bigger presence adds complexity to NK nuke talks

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · April 1, 2021

This is a key point form Dr. Shin:  “Japan may have acted as a spoiler in the denuclearization talks in the past. But this time when Japan and the US are in deep cooperation under the new US government, South Korea, not Japan, could be seen as a spoiler in the trilateral relationship,” said Shin Beom-chul, director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy."

 

13. Good deal, bad deal or no deal (Korea)

The Korea Times · by Yun Byung-se · April 1, 2021

Some interesting and important historical comparisons. 

Key point and key questions: As to whether to push for another deal with North Korea or not, however, there is a big divide both in South Korea and the U.S. in light of the endless non-compliance and cheating by North Korea. It begs a key question. Do we have the resolve and commitment to make a sustainable good deal to match our principles of denuclearized peace? Or should we be resigned to a bad deal that may bring transient peace but legitimize a nuclearized North Korea?

Conclusion:  If President Biden sticks to his principled position of denuclearization of North Korea and if Kim does not change his course, Kim might not ever meet his new U.S. counterpart and have to be content with reminiscing on the good old days of the "Last Tango in Singapore" with Trump.

After the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975, President Gerald Ford issued a regretful statement: "History must be the final judge of that which we have done or left undone, in Vietnam and elsewhere. Let us calmly await its verdict."

South Korea, allied to the U.S., is no comparison for South Vietnam of the 1970s or Czechoslovakia of the 1930s. However, both South Korea and the U.S. should learn from the lessons of history to avoid policy mistakes, especially in the second nuclear age with the possibility of a nuclear conflict.

What the Biden administration will have done or left undone in the coming months and years together with its allies, including through a new North Korea policy, will also be given a verdict by history. I am sure that his team will be on the right side of history, keeping the "peace and honor."

 

14. Pyongyang's Secret: There Is No Strategy

realcleardefense.com · by Alex Wong

A very interesting thesis. This is one of the most insightful essays we have seen in a long time. Alex should know. He has been dealing with north Korea more than most for the past few years as the deputy to the special representative.

 

15. Moon administration receives failing grade

donga.com · April 1, 2021

Tough times

 

16. White House: Biden does not intend to meet with N. Korean leader

donga.com· April 1, 2021

I do not think he should unless there is an agreement to be inked after substantive working level negotiations.

Of course Kim will not meet with him unless he receives guarantees of sanctions relief before doing so.

 

17. Is Korea policy too important to be left to the Americans? by Mark Tokola

asiatimes.com · by Mark Tokola · April 1, 2021

I agree that we need to continually assess and revise our assumptions based on understanding the conditions as they evolve. I also agree that the north Korean nuclear problem is NOT the biggest problem. The biggest problem is the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (even if Alex Wong says the regime has no strategy!!!)

Is Korea policy too important to be left to the Americans?

 

18. White House official says U.S. review of North Korea policy in 'final stages'

Reuters · by Reuters Staff · March 31, 2021

We are waiting with bated breath. :-) 

 

19. It’s Time to Act, Not React, on North Korea

fairobserver.com · by Eric J. Ballbach • · March 30, 2021

A view from Germany.

 

------------

 

"Assessing China’s growing power incorrectly has always proved to be hazardous. US policymakers have underestimated China’s power at least twice since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, once catastrophically and another time with serious consequences for US credibility. . . Accurately assessing the power of China is still a critical task today, especially with renewed tensions on the Korean Peninsula and continuing volatility in the Taiwan Straits "

- David Lampton, Johns Hopkins, 2010

 

“Far better it is to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checkered by failure, than to take rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in the gray twilight that knows neither victory nor defeat.”

-Theodore Roosevelt, Strenuous Life

 

“There is a big difference between motion and action. Just because you get out of bed doesn't mean you are making progress. Taking action requires decisiveness, dedication, and clear direction.”

-Farshad Asl

Link: https://mwi.usma.edu/learning-to-fly-how-the-us-military-can-fix-the-problems-plaguing-aviation-advising-missions/

An in depth discussion on the issues facing aviation advising missions from a USAF Combat Aviation Advisor.

 

Ad hoc missions, competition for personnel, selecting ideal advisors, managing contractors, and more. 

 

 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: China (Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet)

2. Full text: The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2020

3. China commits ‘genocide’ against Uighurs: State Department report

4. The Taliban Think They Have Already Won, Peace Deal or Not

5. Top level nominees still missing at DoD, three months after last announcements

6. These 4-Stars Want to Help Commanders Avoid Information Overload in the Next War

7. Congress looks to rein in Biden's war powers

8. The U.S. Army Goes to School on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

9. New Edgar Snow is needed to understand real China

10. Soldiers aren’t fighting Marines for a job in the Indo-Pacific, chief says

11. United Kingdom Restructures Special Forces Units

12. Listen to America’s Top Commander in the Indo-Pacific and Fund the Pacific Deterrence Initiative

13. US and allies question integrity of WHO-China report on coronavirus origin

14. China's rulers have a new and unimproved version of rules-based order

15. Taiwan to buy upgraded PAC3 missiles, to be deployed by 2026

16. We need new alliances to replace failing global institutions

17. U.S. will defend 'human rights everywhere,' says Blinken in departure from Trump policies

18. Debt-trap diplomacy? Report finds China can cancel loans if displeased

19. Lessons from the 20th century book war (CIA versus KGB)

20. The dark Prince: A short history of a very modern mercenary

21. The Wuhan Whitewash

22. China’s Social Credit System: Speculation vs. Reality

23. UN chief salutes ‘crucial’ US human rights advocacy as tensions with China rise

24. People are losing their minds over Special Operation Command’s new diversity officer

 

1. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: China (Includes Hong Kong, Macau, and Tibet)

The full report can be accessed here.

 

2. Full text: The Report on Human Rights Violations in the United States in 2020

The 18 page report can be downloaded at this link: 

China pre-empted the release of our State Department Human Rights report yesterday with the release of this report on March 24. The forward begins with these quotes:

Foreword

 

“I can’t breathe!”

         -- George Floyd

 

“The scenes (the U.S. Capitol building violence) we have seen are the result of lies and more lies, of division and contempt for democracy, of hatred and rabble-rousing -- even from the very highest levels.”

         -- German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier

 

What I think we should keep in mind when reading this report is how it is based on the transparency of the United States to include first and foremost reporting by the free press of the United States. There is nothing in this report that is not reported in the United States and not known by American citizens and the international community because of the reporting by the free press that is allow to operate freely in the US. We cannot say the same about China.

 

3. China commits ‘genocide’ against Uighurs: State Department report

Al Jazeera English

The buried lede: "At a news conference in Washington, DC, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the findings for 2020 demonstrate that in every region of the world, human rights “continue to move in the wrong direction”.

 

4.  The Taliban Think They Have Already Won, Peace Deal or Not

The New York Times · by Adam Nossiter · March 30, 2021

 

5. Top level nominees still missing at DoD, three months after last announcements

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · March 30, 2021

This is quite a number: "Of the 61 Senate-confirmed roles at the Department of Department — known officially as presidential appointments requiring Senate confirmation jobs, or PAS — only three nominations have been put forth to date."

 

6. These 4-Stars Want to Help Commanders Avoid Information Overload in the Next War

military.com · by Matthew Cox and Oriana Pawlyk · March 30, 2021

Excerpts: “Each U.S. service is conducting experiments to test how artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies can be used to create more efficient command-and-control networks in an effort to develop the Joint All-Domain Command and Control, or JADC2.

JADC2 is meant to link the services' radars and sensors. In the future, a fused, streamlined network could track incoming missiles and other threats and then feed targeting information to the right weapons system to destroy them much faster than today.

 

7. Congress looks to rein in Biden's war powers

The Hill · by Jordain Carney · March 30, 2021

Excerpt: "The biggest challenge, lawmakers acknowledge, will be how to handle the 2001 authorization. It was approved by Congress just days after Sept. 11, 2001, to go after terrorist groups behind the attack. But it’s since been stretched to cover military operations in 19 countries, including against groups that didn’t even exist on 9/11."

 

8. The U.S. Army Goes to School on Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Foreign Policy · by Jack Detsch · March 30, 2021

Intelligent people learn from the mistakes and wise people learn from the mistakes (and successes) of others.

 

9. New Edgar Snow is needed to understand real China

globaltimes.cn

A view through a Chinese Communist Party (or Communist Party of China) mouthpiece.

Conclusion: “The year 2021 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC. The Chinese government has already announced various programs to celebrate it. These programs give an opportunity to rediscover the red genes of the CPC, as well as a historical opportunity for China and the world to understand each other better.

Calling for the appearance of the new Edgar Snow is not just looking forward to the arrival of another great international journalist. It is a chance to trace the origin of CPC's strength through an international perspective. It can promote the understanding of the ideological changes in the new era both in China and the world.

 

10. Soldiers aren’t fighting Marines for a job in the Indo-Pacific, chief says

armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 30, 2021

There is enough work for all soldiers and Marines. We need to focus on using the right forces for the right missions.

 

11. United Kingdom Restructures Special Forces Units

sof.news · by SOF News · March 29, 2021

 

12. Listen to America’s Top Commander in the Indo-Pacific and Fund the Pacific Deterrence Initiative

warontherocks.com · by Mark Montgomery and Bradley Bowman · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: “This means that, absent congressional intervention, the Guam Defense System will probably be “studied” instead of funded for the next year or two. As Washington dithers, Beijing will continue to field new missiles designed to target Guam, a threat Davidson warns will become particularly acute by 2026.

The Guam Defense System provides just one example of the funding challenges facing the Pacific Deterrence Initiative. The joint exercise programs, training and experimentation ranges, surveillance radars, and prepositioning supplies requests in the Pacific Deterrence Initiative could also run into service objections. And without overseas contingency operations funding, top-down leadership, or congressional intervention, they too will be studied and delayed or shrunken as the Chinese threat grows.

The Pacific Deterrence Initiative is a good plan. It recognizes risks, establishes priorities, identifies opportunities, and proposes the allocation of finite resources. It lays out a blueprint whereby $27 billion in targeted Pacific-specific investments over five years can play a potentially decisive role in securing America’s interests. It signals to allies and partners, and to China, that the United States is prioritizing the competition in the Pacific and making the investments necessary for credible deterrence.

Forward-positioned servicemembers closest to the Chinese threat have clearly told Washington what they need to deter aggression.

The only question now is whether the Biden administration, the Pentagon, and Congress will finally listen and act. If they do, America can protect its interests and deter aggression, saving money and lives in the long run. If Washington once again ignores the command’s warnings, Davidson’s predictions may prove tragically prescient.

 

13. US and allies question integrity of WHO-China report on coronavirus origin

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 30, 2021

As they should and must.

 

14. China's rulers have a new and unimproved version of rules-based order

washingtontimes.com · by Clifford D. May

This is one of he most basic conflicts in great power competition: a fight over the rules based order.

A sobering conclusion: “In the contest for global leadership, China’s rulers enjoy a distinct advantage: They’re hungry for power. By contrast, many Americans, on both the left and the right, have grown tired of shouldering the burdens that attach to being No. 1. They’d like someone else to take a turn. At present, unfortunately, there’s only one viable candidate.

It’s often said that the Cold War ended with the defeat of Communism. In truth, it ended only with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Future generations of Americans will be ill-served if we leave them a world in which the CCP is the international hegemon making rules for a new and distinctly unfree world order.

 

15. Taiwan to buy upgraded PAC3 missiles, to be deployed by 2026

focustaiwan.tw · by Matt Yu and Joseph Yeh

 

16. We need new alliances to replace failing global institutions

The Telegraph · by Jordan Kelly-Linden

A question is can these "failing" institutions be revitalized?

Excerpts: “The EU’s inept handling of the Covid vaccination programme has laid bare the true extent of its bureaucratic incompetence, while the inability of the UN Security Council to agree on any of the world’s major challenges has brought it to the brink of obsolescence. This means Russian mercenaries can slaughter Syrian civilians at will, and China’s communist despots can take whatever territory they like in the South China Sea, as they are currently doing in their efforts to seize control of Whitsun Reef from the Philippines.

Even the Nato alliance appears to be having an existential crisis, as divisions between member states over how to deal with Beijing have prompted the organisation to broaden its horizons in search of new allies in the Asia-Pacific region, like Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.

A key factor in the sorry decline of multilateralism has been the ability of rogue regimes to undermine the credibility of institutions. The UN has shown itself to be particularly susceptible to this form of entryism, with Colonel Muammar Gaddafi managing in 2003 to secure Libya’s election as chair of the Human Rights Commission, a feat that was surpassed in 2017 when Zimbabwe’s former dictator, Robert Mugabe, was appointed a “goodwill ambassador” for the World Health Organisation.

 

17. U.S. will defend 'human rights everywhere,' says Blinken in departure from Trump policies

upi.com · March 30, 2021

This will be a foundational tenet of our foreign policy during this administration. As I have said, in addition to a moral imperative it is a national security issue. Authoritarian regimes (such as in north Korea) have to deny the human rights of people in order to remain in power.

 

18. Debt-trap diplomacy? Report finds China can cancel loans if displeased

SCMP · by Kinling Lo · March 31, 2021

The 85 page report can be downloaded at the link: 

Debt-trap diplomacy? Report finds China can cancel loans if displeased

• China’s contracts give lenders broad scope to cancel loans or accelerate repayments 
• if debtors’ policies are deemed contrary to Chinese interests, researchers find
• Loans have become more secretive and usually prevent borrowers restructuring, 
• according to ‘How China Lends’ report

 

19. Lessons from the 20th century book war (CIA versus KGB)

strifeblog.org · by Joseph Bodnar · March 31, 2021

An interesting bit of history.

 

20. The dark Prince: A short history of a very modern mercenary

spectator.us· by Kelley Beaucar Vlahos · March 27, 2021

Conclusion: “It was the American government, as part of its global effort to eradicate terror, that invented a new way of war in which nation states outsource conflict and security. Like medieval free companies or privateers with letters of marque, private military services allow governments to wage war away from the glare of the media. And isn’t that so much easier? Mercenaries break rules. They can popup and then vanish quietly. Unlike soldiers who serve their flags in uniform, private forces can fly under the public radar. That means no political price has to be paid for putting boots on the ground and volunteers in harm’s way. ‘But here’s what most people, including four-stars, don’t get about mercenaries. When you privatize war, it changes warfare,’ says Sean McFate. ‘For example, you can bribe the enemy’s mercenaries to defect. [Mercenaries] can also start and elongate wars for profit, and engage in banditry in between contracts. A world with more mercenaries is one with more war and suffering.’ It’s a world Erik Prince has helped to create, and a world in which he can carry on profiting with impunity.”

 

21.  The Wuhan Whitewash

WSJ · by The Editorial Board

 

22. China’s Social Credit System: Speculation vs. Reality

thediplomat.com · by Jessica Reilly · March 30, 2021

Conclusion: "Over the next five years, and likely well beyond, social credit is set to be used as a tool to improve the government’s economic governance capacity and domestic market conditions, as a means of promoting fair competition, strengthening market supervision, and encouraging law-adherence. In the long term, it is clear that social credit fits into the CCP’s grand designs for “data-driven governance” covering all spheres of society. What remains unclear is how integrated, far-reaching, and effective this system will be in practice and if, or how soon, we can expect ambitious social credit policy goals to turn into a reality."

I would be very wary of the Chinese Big Brother. Power corrupts and ultimate power.... This kind of data could provide support to ultimate power...

 

23. UN chief salutes ‘crucial’ US human rights advocacy as tensions with China rise

Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · March 29, 2021

Excerpts: “Beijing’s attempts to intimidate and silence those speaking out for human rights and fundamental freedoms only contribute to the growing international scrutiny of the ongoing genocide and crimes against humanity in Xinjiang,” Blinken replied Saturday evening.

Blinken's Chinese counterpart insisted that the true outrage lies in the prospect of Western nations or corporations refusing to invest in the industries implicated in the Uyghur Muslim repression at the expense of Chinese economic growth.

“If certain Western countries insist on using human rights as a pretext to contain and suppress developing countries and attempt to deprive nonWestern countries of their right to development, this will be the greatest injustice in the history of humanity,” the foreign minister said.

 

24. People are losing their minds over Special Operation Command’s new diversity officer

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 30, 2021

 

-------------

 

"Diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments." 

- Prussian King Frederick the Great

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt.

 

 

“In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement.”

- Abraham Lincoln

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Democratic People's Republic of Korea

2. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Republic of Korea

3. HRNK Quoted 27 Times in the U.S. Department of State's Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2020 Human Rights Report

4. Why South Korea is balking at the Quad

5. “The withdrawal of US troops builds peace on the Korean peninsula”

6. Reprocessing Activity at Yongbyon's Radiochemistry Laboratory?

7. Steam detected at N. Korea's plutonium reprocessing plant: U.S. think tank

8. Kim Jong-un's Sister Launches Fresh Verbal Attacks

9. N. Korea's trade volume drops to practically zero amid coronavirus pandemic: official

10. N.K. people's access to information should be expanded without hurting rights of other people: ministry

11. FM Chung expresses hope for early talks with Japanese counterpart

12. South Korean foreign minister going to China for first time in three years

13. Security Council meets on North Korea tests without action

14. N. Korea's ballistic missile development aimed at 'regaining upper hand' over S. Korea: expert

15. Eleven Sunam Market market vendors face punishment after selling smuggled goods

 

1. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Democratic People's Republic of Korea

The full report can be downloaded here.

My thoughts on reading this report:

• North Korean human rights is not only a moral imperative but a national security issue because Kim Jong-un must deny the human rights of the Korean people living in the north in order to ensure he stays in power and the regime survives.
• Kim Jong-un fears the Korean people more than the US – this report illustrates the lengths to which he must go to protect himself from the people.
• This is a very thorough report which clearly and comprehensively outlines the abuses and suffering experience by the Korean people at the hands of the most despotic regime in the modern era.
• The information in this report is important for an information and influence activities campaign in the north.  While focusing on the north Korean nuclear program reinforces regime legitimacy, the exposure of north Korean human rights abuses undermines the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un. It poses an existential threat to the regime.
• This report illustrates the value of non-governmental organizations (such as HRNK) that provide support to DOS to identify the critical issues and provide data and evidence of the human rights abuses in the north.
• This report also confirms there has been no significant improvement of human rights in north Korea since the 2014 UN Commission of inquiry which found the regime was committing crimes against humanity on a scale not seen since WWII.

 

2. 2020 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Republic of Korea

The full report can be downloaded here.

I think this is a very objective report. It is hard to write a report like this on an ally but I think the objective analysis strengthens the credibility of all the reports (especially the one on north Korea).. This also provides insights into some of the domestic political challenges in South Korea that do not make the mainstream media outside of Korea.

 

3. HRNK Quoted 27 Times in the U.S. Department of State's Democratic People’s Republic of Korea 2020 Human Rights Report

HRNK

I am proud of the great work by the Committee for Human RIghts in North Korea).  It is an organization that truly punches well about its weight with a director and staff of four, some great young interns, and a network of expert researchers/scholars/authors.

 

4. Why South Korea is balking at the Quad

eastasiaforum.org · by Kuyoun Chung · March 31, 2021

Excerpts: :”But US allies and partners in the region have been reluctant to join this effort. The uncertain end-state of US–China competition — as well as concern over potential Chinese economic coercion — are impacting their decision. While US–China competition continues to serve as an organising principle for US foreign policy under the Biden administration, the prospect of complete decoupling and disengagement between these two great powers seems remote.

Washington may need to take a more nuanced approach and carefully distinguish like-situated countries, which mostly worry about the risk of great power competition, from like-minded countries, which are more willing to resist the decline of liberal order. Though these two groups are not necessarily exclusive, they prioritise different foreign policy goals according to their primary concern, different threat perception, economic interest and the level of resilience to resist Chinese coercion.

In speaking to some friends from Asia I have heard a few comments: The concept and intent of the "Quad, et al, is uncertain and the US needs to provide a better understanding of the purpose and the way ahead.  It needs a new "branding" effort.  They also tell me there appear to be different descriptions of the Quad among the State, DOD,and the INDOPACOM commander) both the current and incoming as they seem to focus on containment of China and weigh the collective security aspect of the Quad while State and DoD emphasize the economic and political aspect. 

 

5. “The withdrawal of US troops builds peace on the Korean peninsula”

This is a google translation of a Chosun Ilbo article (e.g "Department of Political Surgery").  It is a very troubling (and dangerous) read.  I am saddened that Kim Joon-hyung, who is the head of the Korean National Diplomatic Academy, would write a book and express such negative views of our alliance.

 

6. Reprocessing Activity at Yongbyon's Radiochemistry Laboratory?

beyondparallel.csis.org · by Joseph Bermudez · March 30, 2021

Images at the link.  

 

7. Steam detected at N. Korea's plutonium reprocessing plant: U.S. think tank

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · March 31, 2021

 

8. Kim Jong-un's Sister Launches Fresh Verbal Attacks

english.chosun.com

The bad cop is on a roll.

 

9. N. Korea's trade volume drops to practically zero amid coronavirus pandemic: official

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 31, 2021

This is why we are seeing reports of a possible opening of the Chinese border next month and a new DPRK ambassador to China with trade expertise.  north Korea must get cross border trade restarted.

 

10.N.K. people's access to information should be expanded without hurting rights of other people: ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 31, 2021

This new law is one issue identified in State's report on human rights in South Korea.  The excuse for the law that the Korean people living in Paju must be protected from north Korean threats and retaliation is a red herring and poor justification for the law.  How many Koreans i the South have been harmed by north Korean retaliation for information going into north Korea?

 

11. FM Chung expresses hope for early talks with Japanese counterpart

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 31, 2021

The buried lede (and a very important statement from the FM):

“Touching on the diplomatic difficulty Seoul faces in the midst of an acrimonious Sino-U.S. rivalry, Chung noted that Washington and Beijing are not a "subject of choice" as both are crucial partners for cooperation.

"The U.S. is our only ally, and the alliance is the foundation of our diplomatic and security policy, while China is our close neighbor, largest trading partner and our strategic partner," he said.

"Our position is clear and not ambiguous at all. The firm position is that based on the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance, we will strive to harmoniously develop relations with China," he added.

 

12. South Korean foreign minister going to China for first time in three years

Reuters · by Josh Smith and Yew Lun Tian · March 31, 2021

Another key statement from the FM: “Our basic stance is clear and not at all ambiguous: Based on the solid South Korea-U.S. alliance, the government’s firm position is to harmoniously improve South Korea-China relations,” Chung told a briefing on Wednesday.

The ROK can and should engage China from a position of strength and part of the strength comes from the strong ROK/US alliance.

 

13. Security Council meets on North Korea tests without action

24matins.uk · March 30, 2021

Hardly a surprise given China and Russian positions.

 

14. N. Korea's ballistic missile development aimed at 'regaining upper hand' over S. Korea: expert

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 31, 2021

"Regaining" the upper hand? When has it not had the upper hand over the past 3-4 years?

 

15. Eleven Sunam Market market vendors face punishment after selling smuggled goods

dailynk.com · by  Jong So Yong · March 31, 2021

The draconian population and resources control measures continue as the regime tries to make sure it exercises total control over the people and markets.

 

-------------

 

"Diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments." 

- Prussian King Frederick the Great

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt.

 

“In this sad world of ours sorrow comes to all and it often comes with bitter agony. Perfect relief is not possible except with time. You cannot now believe that you will ever feel better. But this is not true. You are sure to be happy again. Knowing this, truly believing it will make you less miserable now. I have had enough experience to make this statement.”

- Abraham Lincoln

Link: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2021-march-30/

• Israel and Iran are engaged in an undeclared, low-level war involving attacks on ships, facilities and proxy groups
• Israeli leaders might be seeking to derail efforts by the Biden administration to rejoin the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear deal. 
• The conflict could escalate as Iran continues to expand its nuclear activities in violation of the 2015 multilateral Iran nuclear agreement the US left. 
• The U.S. and other powers could potentially be drawn into the conflict as their commercial and national security interests become affected. 

Link: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/03/guns-camps-and-deradicalization-violent-extremists-conflict-zones

 

What are the differences between disengagement and rehabilitation programs in stable settings and in conflict zones?

Violent extremists make civil conflicts more complex and less manageable. Whether in the Middle East, Africa or South Asia, one of the many problems presented by conflicts involving violent extremists is how to deal with these combatants and associates when they surrender or are captured. There have been many attempts to disengage, deradicalize, rehabilitate and reintegrate violent extremists around the world, but most research focuses on stable settings such as Western Europe and North America. What, then, do we know about how to do this in the middle of conflict?

It’s one thing to put a terrorist offender in a Western prison through a disengagement and rehabilitation program. But the challenges are far greater in a location such as northeast Syria. The territorial defeat of the Islamic State group (ISIS) left around 10,000 former combatants and thousands of family members in the hands of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC).

But what is the status of the former combatants? Are they criminals or prisoners of war? Are their families displaced victims, or should they be viewed as suspected perpetrators? How should they be treated, and by whom? The SDF and SDC may have de facto jurisdiction, but they are not recognized as sovereign by any country and are under military and political pressure on all sides. And as several political controversies in recent years have shown, few states seem interested in taking responsibility for even the most vulnerable and most victimized of their own citizens in northeast Syria.