News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Kim Jong-un regime orders emergency import of medicines:Medical care collapses due to trade restrictions by COVID-19, causing many deaths.

2. North Korea’s Leader Warns of Famine

3. North Korea Mobilizes Women to Solve Construction Labor Shortage

4. Former Moon advisor says S. Korea can’t secure peace if it stands with US

5. White House set to nominate first woman secretary of the Army

6. The rise of domestic extremism in America

7. Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

8. China's ex-ambassador to Britain named top envoy on Korean Peninsula affairs

9. South Korea’s leaflet ban draws international condemnation on human rights grounds

10. US hearing on North Korea's human rights expected to anger Pyongyang

11. Moon to Meet Biden in May

12. Even With Seoul Paying More, America Can’t Afford to Defend South Korea

13. Moon orders new Marine Corps chief to protect fishermen near border

14. N. Korea begins construction on new political prisoner camp near uranium production facility

15. World watches North as Day of the Sun approaches, U.S. Congress holds hearing

16. North Korean diplomats expelled from Malaysia likely arrive in Beijing

17. N. Korea holds celebrations for founder's birthday in show of confidence in coronavirus handling

18. Outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander awarded top medal from S. Korea

19. N.K. paper calls for establishing company specialized in coastline protection facilities

 

1. ＜Inside N. Korea＞Kim Jong-un regime orders emergency import of medicines:Medical care collapses due to trade restrictions by COVID-19, causing many deaths.

asiapress.org

More indicators that we must observe and assess.

 

2. North Korea’s Leader Warns of Famine

hrw.org · by Lina Yoon · April 12, 2021

Conclusion: “Kim’s warning may be yet another attempt to take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic to further tighten his grip on power. The 1990s famine not only killed multitudes but also undermined the government’s repressive rule, as survivors learned to evade food supply programs and set up their own illicit markets. Kim may be using the pandemic to take the country back to when there was an entirely closed border and very few imports. This allowed the government to completely control the distribution of food and supplies while also prohibiting the population from accessing any information not sanctioned by the government from inside or outside the country.”

That is more than arduous. It is terrifying.

 

3. North Korea Mobilizes Women to Solve Construction Labor Shortage

rfa.org· by Jeong Yon Park · April 12, 2021

It is the women of north Korea who have proven the most resilient and are responsible for the survival of families through the Arduous March of 1994-1996. But if the regime is going to drag them away from their family responsibilities they are going to create suffering on a scale greater than 1994-1996 and it could lead to internal instability.

 

4.  Former Moon advisor says S. Korea can’t secure peace if it stands with US

Hani · April 12, 2021

Moon Chung-in will put the ROK at grave risk with his advice.  These are very dangerous ideas.

 

5. White House set to nominate first woman secretary of the Army

Defense News · by Jen Judson · April 12, 2021

History.

 

6. The rise of domestic extremism in America

The Washington Post · by Robert O'Harrow Jr., Andrew Ba Tran, and Derek Hawkins · April 12, 2021

Please go to the link to view the graphics.  

 

7. Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

RAND · April 13, 2021

I participated in this event last evening and I was a reviewer on this report.

The 120 report can be downloaded here.

 

I am reminded of Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Deterrence works. Until it doesn't." This reports looks at the way north Korea will likely employ nuclear weapons during armistice and conflict. It makes a number of provocative recommendations and provides some unique analysis that is worthy of study and reflection.

 

8. China's ex-ambassador to Britain named top envoy on Korean Peninsula affairs

upi.com · Elizabeth Shim · April 12, 2021

As we wait to learn who will be the US Special Representative for north Korea.

What does it mean for China policy toward Korea? After all, personnel is policy. 

Excerpts: “In 2017, Liu wrote an editorial published in The Telegraph that claimed China does not hold the "master key" to the "North Korean crisis," after former President Donald Trump threatened "fire and fury" against North Korea.

"China is ready to help, but you cannot put out a fire if someone continues to pour oil over it -- or find fault with or even frustrate firefighting efforts," Liu said at the time.

 

9. South Korea’s leaflet ban draws international condemnation on human rights grounds

onekoreanetwork.com · April 13, 2021

This will be a very interesting hearing. Details here.   

Here are the witnesses:

Panel I

Gordon G. Chang, Author, Losing South Korea and Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes on the World

• Hon. Inho Lee, Former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the Russian Federation under President Kim Dae Jung and Professor Emerita of Seoul National University
• John Sifton, Asia Advocacy Director, Human Rights Watch
• Suzanne Scholte, Seoul Peace Prize Laureate and Chair, North Korea Freedom Coalition
• Jessica Lee, Senior Research Fellow for East Asia, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

 

10. US hearing on North Korea's human rights expected to anger Pyongyang

The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo  · April 13, 2021

Yes I think holding the human rights hearing on April 15 (Kim Il Sung's birthday) is a great way to "honor" the most despotic regime in the modern era that is guilty of crimes against humanity against the Korean people living in the north.

 

11. Moon to Meet Biden in May

english.chosun.com · April 13, 2021

Note: Biden meets Suga in Washington this Friday.

 

12. Even With Seoul Paying More, America Can’t Afford to Defend South Korea

Foreign Policy · by Doug Bandow · April 12, 2021

Dangerous words from Mr. Bandow: “Washington officials constantly talk of North Korea as a threat to the United States. It is not. North Korea is a threat to South Korea and the U.S.-South Korean alliance, which is very different. That can be easily remedied by the United States—by leaving the ever-stronger South to take over its own defense.”

Following his advice will lead to conflict in Northeast Asia and that will have a direct impact on the American people.

 

13. Moon orders new Marine Corps chief to protect fishermen near border

m-en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 13, 2021

This is not a new threat.

 

14.  N. Korea begins construction on new political prisoner camp near uranium production facility - Daily NK

dailynk.com · Seulkee Jang · April 13, 2021

For all those who criticize me for saying human rights is a national security issue - this is one reason why. The north uses its slave labor (prisoners) for uranium mining to support its nuclear program and other illicit activities.

Excerpts: “The authorities plan to send the prisoners to uranium mines and processing facilities to produce uranium concentrate immediately after they enter the camp, based on the source’s account.

According to the source, the Pyongsan Uranium Concentrate Plant needs more manpower to expand uranium-related production, so the authorities decided to mobilize prisoners to supplement the labor shortage.”

And note this: “There are also rumors of North Korea smuggling concentrated uranium produced in Pyongsan to Iran, Syria, Qatar, and Egypt, which lend weight to claims that North Korean authorities are expanding the production of concentrated uranium.

In fact, Daily NK’s source claimed that North Korea is smuggling uranium ore in addition to concentrated uranium.

“As far as I know, China requested uranium ore, not concentrated uranium,” the source explained. “It’s not just that China doesn’t trust North Korea’s refinement capabilities. This way, they can also get uranium ore for a lower price.”

 

15. World watches North as Day of the Sun approaches, U.S. Congress holds hearing

Koreajoongdaily · by Yoo Jee-Hye, Park Hyun-Ju, and Sarah Kim · April 13, 2021

Will this result in a north Korean provocation? I will not predict one but I would not rule one out.

 

16.  North Korean diplomats expelled from Malaysia likely arrive in Beijing

thejakartapost.com · by The Jakarta Post · April 13, 2021

The question is will north Korea and Malaysia eventually return to the status quo? It is in both their financial interests to do so.

Excerpts: “North Korea had apparently used Malaysia as a hub to raise money for leader Kim Jong Un and his government in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, as its citizens had been allowed to enter the Southeast Asian nation without visa.

Before leaving the embassy in Kuala Lumpur, North Korean Charge d'Affaires Kim Yu Song read out a statement in which he slammed Malaysia for being "subservient" to the United States and laid all responsibility at the country's feet.”

 

17. N. Korea holds celebrations for founder's birthday in show of confidence in coronavirus handling

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 13, 2021

The only thing we can really have confidence is that the regime continues to be able to control the narrative about COVID.

 

18. Outgoing U.S. Indo-Pacific commander awarded top medal from S. Korea

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 13, 2021

 

19. N.K. paper calls for establishing company specialized in coastline protection facilities

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · April 13, 2021

A major threat to the north is mother nature.

 

-------------

 

Just a reminder:

George F. Kennan defined political warfare as “the logical application of Clausewitz’s doctrine in time of peace.” While stopping short of the direct kinetic confrontation between two countries’ armed forces, “political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command… to achieve its national objectives.” A country embracing Political Warfare conducts “both overt and covert” operations in the absence of declared war or overt force-on-force hostilities. Efforts “range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures…, and ‘white’ propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of ‘friendly’ foreign elements, ‘black’ psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.” See George Kennan, "Policy Planning Memorandum." May 4, 1948.

http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm 

 

 Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations. Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989)

 https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf

 

"No one understood better than Stalin that the true object of propaganda is neither to convince nor even to persuade, but to produce a uniform pattern of public utterance in which the first trace of unorthodox thought immediately reveals itself as a jarring dissonance."

- Alan Bullock, British historian

 

 

 

 

 

FICINT – Ascensión: A Tale of the Mexican Drug War

Small Wars Journal is pleased to present an excerpt from Ascensión: A Tale of the Mexican Drug War by Small Wars Journal-El Centro Fellow Michael L. Burgoyne. This fictional account—or FICINT (Fictional Intelligence)—describes the security situation in Mexico in an accessible manner.  Here the situation in Mexico is described through the lens of fiction and intelligence to depict future conflict scenarios grounded in reality.[1]  Is it ‘criminal insurgency,’ ‘civil strife,’ ‘crime wars,’ ‘non-international armed conflict (NIAC),’ or something else. Burgoyne seeks to inform the policy and operational debate surrounding insecurity and criminal armed groups (CAGs) in Mexico in this text. SWJ

Comments from the author:

In 2020, Mexico suffered over 35,000 homicides, marking another year of exceptionally high rates of violence that are comparable to a war zone. Mexican transnational criminal organizations drive the violence in Mexico and play a key role in the over 70,000 annual drug overdose deaths in the United States. Yet, Americans lack an understanding of the complex security situation just south of the border.

I am thankful to Small Wars Journal-El Centro for the opportunity to present an excerpt from, Ascensión: A Tale of the Mexican Drug War.  I wrote the story as modern day western designed to bring the reader into a violent and complicated world where there are no easy answers. While the story is fiction, the events depicted are drawn from reality, which is documented in the accompanying notes section. These notes also include references to outstanding scholars that provide excellent analysis of the ongoing conflict in Mexico.

Finally, this excerpt is augmented with a brief interview with Alexei Chevez, a Mexican scholar and security practitioner with a deep knowledge of the nature of the internal stability struggles in Mexico.

My hope is that this work of fiction provides an engaging way to understand the very real and daunting security challenges the Mexican people face.

– Michael L. Burgoyne

The excerpt of Ascensión: A Tale of the Mexican Drug War is available here at SWJ-El Centro.

 

Endnotes

[1] For more on FICINT as an analytical tool, see August Cole and P.W. Singer, “Thinking The Unthinkable With Useful Fiction.” Journal of Future Conflict-Online Journal. Issue 2 (Fall 2020). Kingston, Ontario: Queens University, https://www.queensu.ca/psychology/sites/webpublish.queensu.ca.psycwww/files/files/Journal of Future Conflict/Issue 2 Fall 2020/Issue_2-Singer.pdf.

 

The National Interest · by David Maxwell · April 12, 2021

My estimate on what I think will be part of the new Biden Administration Korea policy was just published at the National Interest below. 

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell.  Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs

1. Blackout Strikes Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran

2. The United States Considers Reinforcing Its ‘Pacific Sanctuary’

3. America’s Oldest Asian Ally, Overlooked

4. FDD | Ukraine Calls Out Iran’s Lack of Transparency in Airliner Case

5. U.S. will send more ships to South China Sea, Philippines Ambassador says

6. FDD | Austin Makes First Trip to Israel as Defense Secretary

7. A Closer Look at Israel’s New High-Tech Barrier

8. US accused of 'cognitive warfare' over 'unusual' Navy photo

9. Biden administration plans to name former senior NSA officials to White House cyber position and head of CISA

10. China builds advanced weapons systems using American chip technology

11. Building a wall of denial against gray-zone aggression

12. UN chief warns that use of IEDs is increasing globally

13. Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

14. JAIC director: With flat budgets, turn to AI to save money

15. Developing a counterinsurgency strategy that actually works

16. Putin vs. the Press

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 12, 2021 | SOF News

 

1. Blackout Strikes Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran

The New York Times · by Ronen Bergman, Rick Gladstone and Farnaz Fassihi, and Gerry Mullany · April 11, 2021

Two fundamental tenets of unconventional warfare are subversion and sabotage.

 

2. The United States Considers Reinforcing Its ‘Pacific Sanctuary’

warontherocks.com · by Wallace C. Gregson, Jr. and Jeffrey W. Hornung · April 12, 2021

Excerpt: "While it is still unknown what results the posture review will bring, the recent 2+2 meeting in Tokyo demonstrated that the alliance is stronger than ever given the common positions shown on China and the need to find ways to bolster the alliance. That strength, combined with an increased proactiveness by Japan, means that it is possible that Japan could see an uptick in U.S. military presence after this review is complete. One thing is clear. If the words of the late Sen. Mike Mansfield were true in the past, that the “U.S.-Japan relationship was the cornerstone of stability in the Far East and in the world, bar none,” the regional challenges that the alliance faces now may make that sentiment even truer today."

 

3. America’s Oldest Asian Ally, Overlooked

WSJ · by Michael George DeSombre

Conclusion: "Thailand is strategically positioned in the middle of Asean, and Asean is at the heart of U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. As the Biden administration develops its foreign policy and national-security strategy, it should leave no doubt of its commitment to the country’s oldest ally in Asia."

 

4. FDD | Ukraine Calls Out Iran’s Lack of Transparency in Airliner Case

fdd.org · by Toby Dershowitz and Dylan Gresik· April 9, 2021

Excerpts: “In its recent statement, the Ukrainian government said it “will not accept any version of the PS752 [downing] that has been voiced but not confirmed by real evidence.” As such, Ukraine has moved “even closer” to elevating the issue under provisions of the Montreal Convention of 1971, according to Andriy Shevchenko, Ukraine’s ambassador to Canada. The convention – to which both Ukraine and Iran are party – concerns criminal liability and financial compensation in the destruction of civilian aircraft.

Ukraine may soon decide to initiate the process of negotiations, arbitration proceedings, and, if necessary, the elevation of the dispute to the International Court of Justice. While the United States is not party to the court, the Biden administration should publicly voice its support for Ukraine to hold the Islamic Republic accountable at the international level. Regardless of the status of ongoing nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran, Biden should stand firm with U.S. allies and partners in the face of Iran’s continued transgressions in the case of PS752.

 

5. U.S. will send more ships to South China Sea, Philippines Ambassador says

Newsweek · by Anders Anglesey · April 11, 2021

I guess the Ambassador is privy to our force deployment decision. I hope he is not speaking out of school here.

 

6. FDD | Austin Makes First Trip to Israel as Defense Secretary

fdd.org · by Bradley Bowman· April 9, 2021

 

7. A Closer Look at Israel’s New High-Tech Barrier

realcleardefense.com · by Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer 

Excerpts: “Controversy also surrounds the military message that barriers send. Some in the IDF believe the construction of expensive and high-tech fences sends a message of weakness or a defensive posture. They argue that effective fences might prevent political leaders from taking decisive action during conflict, particularly if they feel the barrier might shield the country from a wider conflagration.

Barrier proponents argue these measures prevent terrorism and loss of life. The West Bank fence brought the number of suicide bombings to near zero. The Egypt border fence brought smuggling down to negligible numbers, too. As with Iron Dome, some argue that advanced fences give political leaders flexibility to decide exactly when and how to launch a military response to provocations.

As always, the debates will continue in Israel. But in the meantime, the Gaza border is likely safer -- until Hamas invents new ways to attack.

 

8. US accused of 'cognitive warfare' over 'unusual' Navy photo

au.news.yahoo.com · by Nick Whigham· April 11, 2021

"Cognitive warfare?"  How about just plain psychological warfare or psychological operations?

I saw another report that the photo has since been taken down which if true I think is a huge mistake.

Excerpts: “"In the photo, Commander Briggs looks very relaxed with his feet up watching the Liaoning ship just a few thousand yards away, while his deputy is also sitting beside him, showing they take their PLA counterparts lightly,” Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at Taiwan’s Naval Academy, told the SCMP.

"This staged photograph is definitely ‘cognitive warfare’ to show the US doesn’t regard the PLA (People's Liberation Army) as an immediate threat."

The aircraft carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt, and its strike group, as well as the amphibious ship USS Makin Island are also operating in the South China Sea, US officials revealed.

 

9. Biden administration plans to name former senior NSA officials to White House cyber position and head of CISA

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima  · April 12, 2021

 

10. China builds advanced weapons systems using American chip technology

The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima and Gerry Shih · April 09, 2021

As one of my War College students used to say back in 2010 - Chinese R&D is "steal to leap ahead."  No one should be surprised by this report.

 

11. Building a wall of denial against gray-zone aggression

AEI · by Elisabeth Braw · April 12, 2021

The 25 page report can be downloaded here: 

 

12. UN chief warns that use of IEDs is increasing globally

Stars and Stripes · by Edith Lederer · April 10, 2021

 

13. Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

The Washington Post · by  Michael Chertoff and N. MacDonnell Ulsch · April 12, 2021

Excerpts: “One response is for the United States to organize a coordinated effort to restrain the Chinese government’s ability to further develop AI for its predictive policing program — for example, by bolstering protections against intellectual property theft in this area, enacting punitive sanctions to discourage private technology companies from collaborating with Beijing, and publicly and forcefully decrying the complicity of such companies in the human rights catastrophe in Xinjiang.

To be successful, such an effort would need bipartisan support in Washington, to win cooperation from democratic partners around the world and to persuade the private sector through laws and regulations to act in its own long-term interests. Action on this scale is necessary and urgent to curb the Xi regime’s worst authoritarian instincts and minimize the human cost of its oppressive rule.

Opinion | AI companies are enabling genocide in China

 

14. JAIC director: With flat budgets, turn to AI to save money

c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden · April 9, 2021

I am always leery about claims that technology can result in saving money.

 

15. Developing a counterinsurgency strategy that actually works

indianexpress.com · by Sajid Farid Shapoo · April 9, 2021

A view from India.  I remember being a fly on the wall for some general officer discussion back in 2008 or 2009 when the Indian Army Chief of Staff visited Fort Bragg.  I will never forget the comment he made about have 5000,000 Indian military and security personnel conducting counterinsurgency on a daily basis.   That is almost like employing the entire active duty US  Army.

Excerpt: “Indian counterinsurgency has to work with a dual objective of defeating the insurgents militarily and fully quell the insurgent impulses. This will need institutional overhauls. The conflict over the distribution of resources can be mended with economic development, but the bigger challenge would be to create a system where the tribal population feels that the government is representative, not repressive. Opening negotiation channels and policies like surrender and rehabilitation can give such a representative sense to the rebels that the government cares for them if they (rebels) are willing to shun the violent path. Lastly, the asymmetry in the distribution of power cannot solely be ironed out by just economic policies, it is critically important to create a system where the distribution of power is not controlled by the traditional elite.

 

16. Putin vs. the Press

FDD · by Clifford D. May April 9, 2021

 

17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, April 12, 2021 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 12, 2021

 

-----------

 

“My congratulations to you personally for your part in the presentation today … The challenge of this old but new form of operations is a real one and I know that you and the members of your command will carry on for us and the free world in a manner which is both worthy and inspiring. I am sure that the green beret will be a mark of distinction in the trying times ahead.”

- Message from President Kennedy to General Yarborough, 11 April 1961

 

“One should become the master of one's mind rather than let one's mind master him.”
- Nichiren Daishonin

 

“Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”
 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Former N. Korean child beggar runs for local election in U.K.

2. ‘Worst ever’ threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule

3.  U.S.,S. Korea: KN-23 shows irregular trajectory including pull-up maneuver

4. Iran Calls On South Korea To Release Funds Frozen Under US Sanctions

5. Korea's effort in Afghan reconstruction recognized

6. Ex-minister decries U.S. congressional hearing on anti-N.K. leafleting ban

7. North Korea transfers control of important military shipbuilding factory to Munitions Industry Department

8. Kim Il Sung birthday crackers are being sold in local markets before start of official distribution

9. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korean moves on SLBMs, new submarine: JCS

10. 'Never criticise the Dear Leader!' Kim executes official after 'rant' against Government

11. Is Mike Pompeo Clueless on North Korea?

12. [Editorial] Self-inflicted disgrace (South Korean Anti-leaflet law)

13. Moon's approval rating dips to record low of 33.4 pct: Realmeter

14. US military bases in Japan, South Korea ramp up coronavirus vaccinations

15. PM: S. Korea willing to help Iran advance dialogue for restoring nuclear deal

 

1. Former N. Korean child beggar runs for local election in U.K.

donga.com· April 12, 2021

Last week I listened to Professor Fahey talk about north Korean human rights.  One of the things she mentioned was that Koreans in the north have no examples to look up to because everything is focused on idolizing and deifying the Kim family regime.  This is one example that must get to the Korean people (as well as the other UK candidate as well as the South Korea legislators currently in office after their escapes from the north). This needs to be part of an information and influence campaign.

 

2.  ‘Worst ever’ threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule

asiatimes.com · by Daniel Sneider · April 12, 2021

Very important and comprehensive analysis on the north Korean situation from Daniel Sneider.  

If I were advising the command I would recommend that not only it focus on the indications and warnings for international instability, I would be conducting a review of all relevant crisis actions SOP measures and review contingency plans. 

This conclusion sums up why things may be different (and worse) than the 1990s: "What won’t change are the underlying problems that have now converged into a “worst-ever” threat to Kim Jong Un’s rule"

The underlying conditions and problems are exacerbated by Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy decisions as well as the nature of the regime, its objectives, and strategy.

I will not predict if or when there might be internal instability in north Korea, only that if it does occur it will be catastrophic and we had better be prepared for it.

 

3. U.S.,S. Korea: KN-23 shows irregular trajectory including pull-up maneuver

donga.com · April 12, 2021

This is for warfighting and attacking the fat target of Camp Humphreys and Osan and Cheongju air bases.

Buried lede: "In the meantime, the three Aegis ships were not mobilized when the new missile was launched. Normally, one carries out missions while the other two are anchored for maintenance, but at the time of the missile launch, all three of them were anchored. Some point out that this could have been the reason why the radar failed to detect the missile early on and mistakenly judged the flying distance." 

I hope the ROK has more surveillance capabilities than one Aegis ship (3 to make 1).

 

4. Iran Calls On South Korea To Release Funds Frozen Under US Sanctions

Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse

This could cause ROK/US alliance friction. 

 

5. Korea's effort in Afghan reconstruction recognized

The Korea Times · by Kwon Mee-yoo · April 12, 2021

Something that has been below the radar.

Recall that South Korea is the first (and may be the only nation) to go from a major aid recipient to a major donor nation.

 

6. Ex-minister decries U.S. congressional hearing on anti-N.K. leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 12, 2021

Human rights are universal and we must stand up for them everywhere.  The Moon administration and ruling party made a huge error passing this legislation and they cannot get a pass on it.

 

7. North Korea transfers control of important military shipbuilding factory to Munitions Industry Department

dailynk.com· by Seulkee Jang · April 12, 2021

Additional information from my friend and mentor, Bob Collins:  

The Munitions Industry Department is subordinate to the Korean Workers' Party and is responsible for all weapons development. However, organizations connected to WMD come under the direct control of the MID. The reassignment of control of this October 3rd Factory is a sharp indicator of Kim regime's intent to put nukes on SLBM's. 

 

8. Kim Il Sung birthday crackers are being sold in local markets before start of official distribution

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · April 12, 2021

I am reminded of the old saying: "let them eat cake."  Though I am sure the Koreans in the north would be happy to have any food.

 

9. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korean moves on SLBMs, new submarine: JCS

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 12, 2021

 

10. 'Never criticise the Dear Leader!' Kim executes official after 'rant' against Government

Express · by John Varga · April 12, 2021

The nature of the Kim family regime.  Loyalty is everything.  And north Korea must be a no whining zone.

 

11. Is Mike Pompeo Clueless on North Korea?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · April 11, 2021

Mr. Bandow is an equal opportunity critic.  He has no love for anyone but he does appear to give some credit to former President Trump's unconventional, experimental, top-down, pen-pal diplomacy.  However, It failed like all other efforts not because of what we did or did not do (despite the pundits who call for appeasement). It failed because of the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

Excerpt: "Give Trump credit, he created an opportunity for serious negotiation. However, he was utterly incapable of forging such a pact. Now Pompeo’s comments suggest that the secretary of state may have been no better prepared. And hence was lost one of the nation’s great diplomatic opportunities."

 

12. [Editorial] Self-inflicted disgrace (South Korean Anti-leaflet law)

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · April 11, 2021

The passing of this law gives the appearance of appeasement when you examine the north Korean threats and actions and the subsequent statements of South Korean officials and passage of the law.  The Moon administration and ruling party need to fix this.

 

13. Moon's approval rating dips to record low of 33.4 pct: Realmeter

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · April 12, 2021

Hardly a surprise giving the trend and the shellacking the ruling party took in the elections lasts week.

 

14. US military bases in Japan, South Korea ramp up coronavirus vaccinations

Stars and Stripes· by Matthew Burke · April 0912, 2021

 

15. PM: S. Korea willing to help Iran advance dialogue for restoring nuclear deal

en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · April 12, 2021

A snarky comment:  How has the middleman function turned out with north Korea and the US?

 

---------

“My congratulations to you personally for your part in the presentation today … The challenge of this old but new form of operations is a real one and I know that you and the members of your command will carry on for us and the free world in a manner which is both worthy and inspiring. I am sure that the green beret will be a mark of distinction in the trying times ahead.”

- Message from President Kennedy to General Yarborough, 11 April 1961

 

“One should become the master of one's mind rather than let one's mind master him.”
- Nichiren Daishonin

 

“Democracy cannot succeed unless those who express their choice are prepared to choose wisely. The real safeguard of democracy, therefore, is education.”
 - Franklin D. Roosevelt

 

 

Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades.

 

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home/introduction

A roundup of stories related to the special operations community of interest

https://sof.news/update/20210412/

Topics Include:

-International SOF in action (Canada, UK, Denmark)
-Counter threat finance applied to GPC
-Information Operations
-Updates and analysis on ongoing conflicts
-Upcoming events