News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. U.S. Concerns About Taiwan Put Focus on Island’s Defensive Weakness

2. FDD | OPCW Member States Hold Syria Accountable for Chemical Weapons Use

3. The Bloated Pentagon Budget Isn’t Just Wasteful. It’s Racist

4. The unconventional war between Israel and Iran

5.  China, neighbors weigh options, hedge bets as Biden prepares Afghanistan exit

6. Ransomware Targeted by New Justice Department Task Force

7. U.S. Senate passes 'Hate Crimes Act' in overwhelming vote

8. The US military is turning to special operators to fend off Russian and Chinese influence in its neighborhood

9. Follow-Up Comments: War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

10. Book Review: Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States: Small Scale U.S. Interventions Abroad

11. Afghan military will collapse without some US help, says top general in the Middle East

12. Biden Looks to Progressive for Key Human Rights Post

13.  How Q’s 'Lost Drops' Undermine the QAnon Myth

14. STRATCOM boss clarifies comments on ‘zero’ extremism in his organization

15. AFP chief pushes Pinoy structures in West PH Sea

16. In Afghanistan, a Dangerous Surrender in a Misconceived War by Bing West

17. Virginia moving to eliminate all accelerated math courses before 11th grade as part of equity-focused plan

18. China Eyes More Bases in Africa, US Military Official Says

19. JSOU Report on Battle for Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan - 2001 | SOF News

20. Key GOP senators say they’re open to corporate tax increase

21. Sen. Coons sees new era of bipartisanship on China

22. Defending democracies from disinformation and cyber-enabled foreign interference

23. Navy SEAL community loses another legend: Bob “The Eagle” Gallagher

24. End the ‘Forever War’ Cliché

 

1. U.S. Concerns About Taiwan Put Focus on Island’s Defensive Weakness

WSJ · by Alastair Gale

Taiwan needs a strong conventional deterrence and defense capability. But it also needs asymmetric defense capability that can provide unconventional deterrence through resistance and resilience programs.

 

2. FDD | OPCW Member States Hold Syria Accountable for Chemical Weapons Use

fdd.org · by Anthony Ruggiero Senior Fellow · April 22, 2021

Excerpts: “At the next OPCW EC meeting in July, the Biden administration should lead an effort to adopt a decision demanding that Russia comply with its CWC obligations within 90 days, modeled on the July 2020 EC resolution on Syria. Seventeen current EC member states were among the 59 who condemned Russia on Tuesday, a robust start toward gathering the 28 votes needed for an EC decision.

While some states may regard such an EC decision as hasty, Russia also used Novichok in 2018 in the United Kingdom, inadvertently killing a mother of three instead of the Russian defector targeted for assassination. President Vladimir Putin evidently has yet to receive the message that it is unacceptable to use chemical weapons.

In the lead-up to the July OPCW meeting, Washington should also issue additional targeted sanctions on Russia and Syria and support the prosecution of officials who have committed atrocities.

The OPCW decision marks an important first step toward restoring the global norm of zero chemical weapons use. The fight will continue in the OPCW and elsewhere. The Biden administration must prioritize efforts to hold violators accountable.

 

3. The Bloated Pentagon Budget Isn’t Just Wasteful. It’s Racist

defenseone.com · by Diana Ohlbaum

Wow. I think we are really getting out of hand here. To follow the author's logic I guess there is nothing that is not racist.

 

4. The unconventional war between Israel and Iran

english.ahram.org.eg

Excerpts: “The unconventional methods that Israel has been using against Iran have included cyber-attacks, assassinations and psychological warfare. Other methods, such as the use of proxy wars, the sabotage of commercial shipping and diplomatic actions, are less effective since they also rely on other parties that may not be fully on board.

Israel’s tactics in this unconventional war have been attributed to Meir Dagan, the tenth director of the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad between 2002 and 2010. In 2004, Dagan and deputy Tamir Pardo held a meeting attended by the other Israeli security agencies Shabak and Aman to discuss how to halt the Iranian nuclear programme.

The view was that if Iran truly wanted to manufacture nuclear weapons, it would eventually succeed. “What can we do [to change this],” Dagan asked.

 

5. China, neighbors weigh options, hedge bets as Biden prepares Afghanistan exit

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Excerpts: “Frederick W. Kagan, who heads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, said, “There are some fundamental disconnects in the way President Biden and his team are talking about the region and the way the region actually is now.”

“There is more than a trace in the language of their presentation that Afghanistan’s neighbors all have an interest in preventing a Taliban takeover and that terrorists don’t use Afghanistan as a safe haven,” Mr. Kagan said. “I really have a problem with conducting strategy or foreign policy in the subjunctive.”

...

“There’s an irony here that on the one hand Iran, Russia and China, they would be very happy to see U.S. forces leave, just because they don’t want that U.S. influence in their backyard,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Wilson Center, said in a conference call with reporters last week. “However, at the same time, these countries do have an interest in a more stable Afghanistan.

“I think that these rivals of the U.S. are of two minds,” he said. “On the one hand, for strategic reasons, they’d like to see this U.S. footprint out of there sooner rather than later, but at the same time, I think they recognize that having those foreign forces there does prevent Afghanistan from deteriorating in ways that could impact their interests.”

Others point to major unknowns surrounding the question of how Russia, Pakistan, Iran or China will respond should the U.S. withdrawal trigger a full-blown security meltdown or Taliban takeover in Afghanistan.

“China may actually be a net loser in terms of Taliban ascendancy, although I don’t think a Taliban takeover of Kabul is a foregone conclusion,” Mr. Haqqani said.

He said fears of potential Taliban collusion with Chinese Uyghurs, a Muslim ethnic group facing harsh government persecution inside China, may inspire Beijing to throw its weight behind the current government in Kabul, which is trying to stave off a Taliban takeover.

 

6. Ransomware Targeted by New Justice Department Task Force

WSJ · by Dustin Volz · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “Mr. Carlin said the task force also will strive to find more “innovative uses of legal authorities…to protect victims before they are victimized.” Last week, the Justice Department revealed that the FBI had entered computer networks still vulnerable from a recent Microsoft Exchange Server attack that researchers have linked to China to remove malicious code. Mr. Carlin said that maneuver was motivated by concerns that criminal groups could hit those networks with ransomware.

Estimates on annual damages of ransomware attacks vary widely, but security companies generally agree the average size of ransoms has ballooned in recent years and that the overall toll on the economy is in the billions of dollars.

Mr. Carlin, who before returning to the Justice Depart focused on cybersecurity as a partner at the Morrison & Foerster law firm, said he has personally seen ransomware payments over $20 million.

“It wasn’t a hard calculation for the company because they could say it would easily be hundreds of millions in damages for them if they didn’t pay,” Mr. Carlin said. “In almost every case where they paid, they knew the amount of damage was 10, 20 times what they were paying.”

 

7. U.S. Senate passes 'Hate Crimes Act' in overwhelming vote

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 23, 2021

94-1. I wonder what is Senator Hawley's rationale? I wonder who were the other 5 senators who do not vote.

 

8. The US military is turning to special operators to fend off Russian and Chinese influence in its neighborhood

Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou

 

9. Follow-Up Comments: War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 21, 2021

I received these comments from a long time friend with whom I served in the Army more than 30 years ago. These require some deep reflection.

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets – “After 20 years of killing one another, in suicide attacks, drone strikes, roadside bomb blasts, night raids and ground offensives, both sides understood the war on almost completely different terms”

 a)  Mirroring – The US practiced this and failed to appreciate the mindset of the Afghans, as a whole, the Pashtuns and, of course, the Taliban themselves.

b) The Taliban didn’t practice mirroring, because they didn’t care about the US mindset. They focused on achieving victory. 

c) The US was focused on nation building and categorized the conflict as an insurgency. The US then approached the problem as an insurgency without determining what it actually took to achieve victory.

d) The Taliban used everything at their disposal to achieve their strategic goals.

e) The US was unwilling to take the necessary steps, regarding Pakistan, and lacked the geopolitical will to defeat the Taliban (neither by force nor by guile).

f) The US has yet to develop a coherent/workable/sustainable strategy.

 

Lessons learned:

 1) Don’t commit military force without an intent and will to win.

2) Invest in more Professional Military Education.

3) Don’t engage in mirroring (either with those we’re supporting or our opponents). They’re not like us. They don’t think like us. They don’t behave like us.

4) Identify the problem correctly and apply the appropriate ways and means to accomplish the mission. 

 Assessment: In the case of Afghanistan, the US played the role of the Turks and Taliban played the role of Lawrence. The fact that most don’t want to see it in those terms should be a sobering wake-up call. It was and is a Pashtun revolt/uprising. We could have won. We should have won. We could still win. It has always been our choice.

Excerpts: “Practically every week, the Taliban delivered these lists of infractions to U.S. diplomats and military officials in Doha, Qatar, who took the complaints — investigating some and dismissing others as inaccurate.

In a way, the spreadsheets’ very existence supported President Biden’s rationale for pulling out completely, even when his generals wanted to stay: A conditions-based withdrawal, as the Pentagon wanted, seemed bound to fail because neither side could agree on whether the other party was even meeting the conditions they had signed on to.

After 20 years of killing one another, in suicide attacks, drone strikes, roadside bomb blasts, night raids and ground offensives, both sides understood the war on almost completely different terms.

 

10. Book Review: Irregular Soldiers and Rebellious States: Small Scale U.S. Interventions Abroad

Small Wars Journal · by Dave Maxwell

 

11. Afghan military will collapse without some US help, says top general in the Middle East

militarytimes.com · by Lolita Baldor · April 22, 2021

My thoughts: Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it.   Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities.

I will bet you could read this in the assessments conducted by Special Forces in 2001-2002 (and even beyond). Every SF soldier knows this.

 

12. Biden Looks to Progressive for Key Human Rights Post

Foreign Policy · by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch · April 21, 2021

I wonder who will be appointed the north Korean human rights envoy?

Excerpts: “Writing in Foreign Policy’s “It’s Debatable” column in February, Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, wrote that the long-term U.S. response to the military coup in Myanmar and subsequent violent crackdown on protests would be “a test of which way the administration will tilt: human rights, or great power competition—and a reminder that these two missions are in tension.”

But the Biden team has continued to signal that it can walk and chew gum at the same time. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech last month that the administration would consistently denounce human rights violations at home and abroad, including in allied countries. “The Biden-Harris administration will stand against human rights abuses wherever they occur, regardless of whether the perpetrators are adversaries or partners,” he said.

 

13. How Q’s 'Lost Drops' Undermine the QAnon Myth

bellingcat.com · April 22, 2021

What a weird cult.

 

14.  STRATCOM boss clarifies comments on ‘zero’ extremism in his organization

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · April 22, 2021

Excerpts: “More than 30 percent of troops who responded to a 2020 Military Times poll reported having witnessed racist or white supremacist ideology while serving, including 57 percent of those who identified as a racial or ethic minority.

Richard is not the only senior leader to confidently estimate the extremist threat within the military. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has said he believes that 99.9 percent of troops are serving with honor, despite the department acknowledging that it does not have a good data set to draw on.

“Even though the number’s small, it can have a corrosive, outsized effect, and that’s the point he’s trying to make,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Military Times on April 9, clarifying that Austin’s statistic is a “colloquialism.”

 

15. AFP chief pushes Pinoy structures in West PH Sea

newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Jeannette I. Andrade · April 23, 2021

Excerpt: “According to the AFP chief, while the military has always challenged intrusions into the country’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone, it is also considering other measures aimed at “enhancing our security posture” in the WPS.

But he did not give details, saying the information was not for public consumption.

 

16. In Afghanistan, a Dangerous Surrender in a Misconceived War by Bing West

WSJ · by Bing West

Excerpts: “President Biden set no conditions when he announced that the U.S. was pulling out of Afghanistan. Angry voices are sure to be raised in Congress when the most vicious terrorist groups, such as the Haqqani network, appear in Afghanistan. The White House would be wise to set a red line for Afghanistan, guaranteeing continued operations against terrorists who seek to attack the West.

The U.S. military is a family business. About 80% of service members have a relative who also served. The Afghanistan war spanned an entire generation. What the troops experienced and took away from the era has been communicated from father to son, from aunt to niece. The 1% of American youths who volunteer to serve are heavily influenced by their families. The U.S. can ill afford to further alienate this small warrior class by continuing to venture out into the world with dreams of nation-building. That’s not a proper job for the U.S. military.

 

17. Virginia moving to eliminate all accelerated math courses before 11th grade as part of equity-focused plan

foxnews.com · by Sam Dorman | Fox News

As someone tweeted: are the Chinese and other countries giving up on advanced Math study?

I wonder if this is someone's misguided idea to make all students "equal?" e.g., everyone to the level of the lowest common denominator?

 

18. China Eyes More Bases in Africa, US Military Official Says

voanews.com · by Jeff Seldin

Excerpts: "What they have done in the last two years is completed a very large and capable naval pier that adjoins their base," Townsend said of Chinese expansion at Doraleh. "This pier has a capability to dock their largest ships, to include the Chinese aircraft carrier as well as nuclear submarines."

Now U.S. officials say China is looking to set up a presence farther south along the eastern Africa coast, in Tanzania, and has an even more ambitious plan for Africa’s Atlantic coastline.

"This is the most significant threat from China,” Townsend told members of the Senate Armed Service Committee, saying Beijing wants “something more than a place where they can make port calls and get gas and groceries.”

"I'm talking about a port where they can rearm with munitions and repair naval vessels," he said. "They're working aggressively to get that."

 

19. JSOU Report on Battle for Mazar-e Sharif, Afghanistan - 2001 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · April 22, 2021

The 154 page report can be downloaded here: 

 

20.  Key GOP senators say they’re open to corporate tax increase

Axios · by Kadia Goba and Hans Nichols

Is that hell freezing over?

 

21. Sen. Coons sees new era of bipartisanship on China

Axios · by Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian

It absolutely must be a bipartisan issue.

 

22. Defending democracies from disinformation and cyber-enabled foreign interference

aspistrategist.org.au · by Danielle Cave · April 22, 2021

The longer report is at this link: 

Excerpts: “There are models for collaboration between states in pushing back against interference. The European Centre of Excellence in Countering Hybrid Threats draws together expertise from across the EU and NATO to facilitate strategic dialogue on responding to hybrid threats, developing best practice, building capacity through training and professional development, and joint exercises. NATO Stratcom is another centre of excellence that combines both strategic and tactical expertise from across the alliance in collective defence against disinformation and information operations.

These models could be replicated through the Quad grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the US. The alignment of interests among these countries could provide an important vehicle for building structures like those that have been trialled elsewhere and offer resilience against cyber-enabled foreign interference. This should include multi-stakeholder 1.5-track engagement that brings together governments, civil society and industry; mitigates against the splintering of economic and national security interests; and drives greater investment in civil society capacity building around detection, strategic communications and digital diplomacy. Social media networks and search engines must do a better job at deterring and punishing actors that actively spread disinformation on their platforms and should audit what they categorise and promote as ‘news’.

Finally, there is strength in democratic collectives. Governments themselves can take steps to mitigate the risks of cyber-enabled foreign interference, but democracies can increase their power by banding together to attribute, raise costs and deter interference by other states. States targeted individually may be reluctant to escalate grey-zone aggression. However, where there’s a collective response, adversaries are likely to recalibrate their behaviour in the face of collective actions like diplomatic measures and economic sanctions.

 

23. Navy SEAL community loses another legend: Bob “The Eagle” Gallagher

sandboxx.us · by Frumentarius · April 22, 2021

The passing of another American hero.

 

24. End the ‘Forever War’ Cliché

Foreign Policy · by Steven A. Cook · April 22, 2021

Conclusion: "Advocates of ending forever wars have done a valuable service challenging the foreign-policy community on its assumptions. There are limits to American power, and not every problem has an American solution. Yet aiming to end forever wars is too pat, too neat. It does not allow for course corrections or any possibility that the United States has been or can once again be a constructive actor in the Middle East. It may well be that restraint is what is called for in the U.S. approach to the region, but the way that restraint is combining with the “ending forever wars” mantra is too limiting. After trillions of dollars spent, lives lost, people maimed, politics warped, Americans need to be careful in the Middle East, but that does not mean becoming wedded to a nifty slogan. The risks are too great."

 

----------------

 

"Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country."

- Hermann Goring

 

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

- Winston Churchill

 

"We all know that in war the political and military factors have to complement each other."

- Nguyen Cao Ky

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. S. Korea may produce homegrown COVID-19 vaccine within this year: minister

2. No. of COVID-19 inoculations reaches 2 mln in S. Korea as vaccinations speed up

3. North Korean propaganda spike suggests looming challenge to Biden, U.S.

4. Why Does New President Biden Follows Old Policy on North Korea?

5. North Korea’s Coronavirus Economic Downturn Has Made It Weak

6. North Korea is Working to “Defeat” U.S. Missile Defense: Report

7.  ROK-US Summit: South Korea’s Moon Jae-In Is Coming to Washington

8. North Korea acted with restraint during guard post shooting, Seoul says

9. Seth Rogen says it's not a 'coincidence' that he hasn't directed a movie since 'The Interview' and the subsequent Sony hack

10. JCS chairman to visit Hawaii next week for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

11. U.S. fully ready to deter any aggression from N. Korea: U.S. commander

12. N.K.'s paper calls for post-war 'Chollima' spirit against challenges

13. Defector group plans to send leaflets to N. Korea next week

14. Foreign ministry denies reports linking vaccine cooperation with U.S. to Quad participation

15. OPEN! NORTH KOREA… Open Hearts, Open Minds, and Open Borders

16. Issue of comfort women should have been resolved through diplomacy

17. Why Would the U.S. Want to Help Korea out with Vaccines?

 

1. S. Korea may produce homegrown COVID-19 vaccine within this year: minister

en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · April 22, 2021

 

2. No. of COVID-19 inoculations reaches 2 mln in S. Korea as vaccinations speed up

en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · April 22, 2021

 

3. North Korean propaganda spike suggests looming challenge to Biden, U.S.

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

My comments, among others, in the article.

 

4. Why Does New President Biden Follows Old Policy on North Korea?

The National Interest · by Will Goode · April 22, 2021

A rational actor trying to survive? Yes that may be the conventional wisdom of many. But again, and I hate to beat the dead horse, but in Kim Jong-un's calculus, survival can only be ensured by the north dominating the entire Korean peninsula. Yes survival of the regime is the vital national interest but we must also factor in the regime's strategic aim, unification on its terms, which it believes it is necessary to achieve to ensure survival. 

 

5.  North Korea’s Coronavirus Economic Downturn Has Made It Weak

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · April 22, 2021

The question is will the effects be similar to the Arduous March of 1994-1996 and will the regime be able to maintain domestic stability? And yes the current situation is likely to have very long term effects on the people and her regime.

 

6. North Korea is Working to “Defeat” U.S. Missile Defense: Report

The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · April 22, 2021

I previously forwarded the link to the referenced CRS report. But here it is again.  

 

7. ROK-US Summit: South Korea’s Moon Jae-In Is Coming to Washington

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · April 22, 2021

That is correct. The PRC is not going to solve the ROK/US alliance's security problem with north Korea.

Keep in mind the author does not like alliances nor US military overseas presence.

Excerpts: “Biden says that he wants to strengthen alliances. The upcoming summit will be a good test as to his definition of “strengthen.” Is it pressing other governments to do as Washington wants or accounting for other nations’ interests, even when doing so conflicts with U.S. preferences?

Moon and Biden are at vastly different points in their respective tenures. Moon is a lame duck, with barely a year left in office. He is desperate to bring his call for detente on the Korean peninsula to fruition and post a significant accomplishment before leaving office. Biden is just starting and is more interested in getting Moon’s support for what Washington views as its most important international issue, dealing with China. Both sides could end up disappointed.

 

8. North Korea acted with restraint during guard post shooting, Seoul says

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 22, 2021

This is in response to recent FM comments about an incident that took place last May. Over the past few decades both the nKPA and the ROK military have operated with significant self-restraint. But this should not make us complacent. Miscalculation can occur and we need to be ready for any contingencies resulting from miscalculation.  

 

9. Seth Rogen says it's not a 'coincidence' that he hasn't directed a movie since 'The Interview' and the subsequent Sony hack

insider.com · by Jason Guerrasio

The long term effects of north Korean actions. How many bad movies have been made about north Korea since the Interview and the Sony hack?

 

10. JCS chairman to visit Hawaii next week for talks with U.S., Japanese counterparts

en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · April 23, 2021

If left at the military level there would be very good trilateral cooperation.

 

11.  U.S. fully ready to deter any aggression from N. Korea: U.S. commander

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 23, 2021

Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Deterrence works. Until it doesn't"

 

12. N.K.'s paper calls for post-war 'Chollima' spirit against challenges

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 23, 2021

Ah, the old "Chollima spirit." It has solved all of north Korea's problems in the past.

 

13. Defector group plans to send leaflets to N. Korea next week

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 23, 2021

Escapees.

This may get interesting when we see how the ROK government reacts to this.

As an aside next week will be the 18th annual North Korea Freedom Week. I am honored to participate in a panel with four escapees from north Korea and Nick Eberstadt and Olivia Schieber. You can register all the events next week here: 

 

14. Foreign ministry denies reports linking vaccine cooperation with U.S. to Quad participation

en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · April 23, 2021

This is complete BS in my opinion. Neither the ROK nor the US would be making these kinds of demands/offers/exchange. Neither side would try to extort or bribe the other. Both COViD and the Quad are too important to do something this foolish, which would only be exposed leaving both countries would be discredited. We certainly would not want the ROK to join the Quad under duress. That would make no sense. The media is reporting rumors, innuendo, and speculation.

 

15. OPEN! NORTH KOREA… Open Hearts, Open Minds, and Open Borders

NK Freedom

Please Join Us for the 18th Annual North Korea Freedom Week 2021

 

16. Issue of comfort women should have been resolved through diplomacy

donga.com

A troubling statement which I fear may be too accurate: "For recent years, the bilateral relations between South Korea and Japan have been the worst since the normalization."

 

17. Why Would the U.S. Want to Help Korea out with Vaccines?

english.chosun.com

A harsh critique of the Moon administration but I think the Chosun Ilbo editorial board is mistaken to assert that joining the Quad is quid pro quo for receiving vaccines from the US.

 

---------------

 

"Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country."

- Hermann Goring

 

"A politician needs the ability to foretell what is going to happen tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year. And to have the ability afterwards to explain why it didn't happen."

- Winston Churchill

 

"We all know that in war the political and military factors have to complement each other."

- Nguyen Cao Ky

A valuable research tool hosted by the CTC.

https://ctc.usma.edu/ctc-releases-declassified-tactical-interrogation-reports-on-current-islamic-state-leader/

https://ctc.usma.edu/al-mawla-interrogation-reports/

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named

3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security

4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force

5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists

6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation

7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate

8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan

9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising

10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War

11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks

12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov'ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation

13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One

14. No Legal Objection, Per Se

15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu16. 

16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition

17.  Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge

18. What is China's Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?

19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands

20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?

 

1. War, Peace and Taliban Spreadsheets

The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “Practically every week, the Taliban delivered these lists of infractions to U.S. diplomats and military officials in Doha, Qatar, who took the complaints — investigating some and dismissing others as inaccurate.

In a way, the spreadsheets’ very existence supported President Biden’s rationale for pulling out completely, even when his generals wanted to stay: A conditions-based withdrawal, as the Pentagon wanted, seemed bound to fail because neither side could agree on whether the other party was even meeting the conditions they had signed on to.

 

2. Indo-Pacific, DNI deputy nominees named

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · April 21, 2021

 

3. President Biden Announces Key Administration Nominations for National Security

APRIL 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

 

4. Coming soon: An announcement on which Army and Navy units will move to the Space Force

c4isrnet.com · by Valerie Insinna · April 21, 2021

Excerpts: “The Space Force is set to grow from about 2,400 active-duty members to about 6,400 people by the end of 2021, Chief of Space Operations Gen. John “Jay” Raymond said in December. Some of those new guardians are expected to transfer in from the Army and Navy.

In a February interview with Military Times, Raymond said he expected at least 34 soldiers and sailors to transfer into the Space Force this year, with hundreds more joining them in 2022. However, he stressed that troops would not be forced to move to the new service.

“You can’t order somebody to come in the Space Force,” he said. “It’s all voluntary.”

 

5. Pentagon extremism adviser lays out challenge facing military after two commanders deny a problem exists

CNN · by Barbara Starr

Excerpts: “Austin also instructed the services to improve their screening of those entering the military and better train those leaving it. He called for updated and standardized screening questionnaires to detect current or previous extremist activities, while also instructing the services to better train people leaving the military on extremist groups who may seek to recruit them.

At the same time, a new Countering Extremism Working Group will look to see if there is a need to update or amend the Uniform Code of Military Justice, find ways to work better with civilian law enforcement and determine whether algorithms can help better screen social media posts for indicators of extremist ideologies.

But on Wednesday Garrison made clear there is still a long way to go for the military to get a grip on the extremism problem.

"We want the American people to understand and know that we see this behavior as a problem. It goes against our values, as I said, it goes against our oath," he said. "It's important for us to reject extremism in all forms, whether that be what is often referred to as unlawful or unregulated militias, anti-government extremism, as well as extremism-based immutable traits, whether you're talking about race or gender or ethnicity, none of it is acceptable."

 

6. Chairman Menendez Announces Bipartisan Comprehensive China Legislation

foreign.senate.gov

Excerpt: “I am incredibly proud to announce this unprecedented bipartisan effort to mobilize all U.S. strategic, economic, and diplomatic tools for an Indo-Pacific strategy that will allow our nation to truly confront the challenges China poses to our national and economic security. The Strategic Competition Act of 2021 is a recognition that this moment demands a unified, strategic response that can rebuild American leadership, invest in our ability to out-compete China, and reground diplomacy in our core values.

 

7. Indo-Pacific commander Aquilino confirmed in Senate

Defense News · by Joe Gould · April 21, 2021

Excerpt: “Aquilino declined to affirm the assessment China could try to invade Taiwan in as little as six years (which outgoing commander Adm. Phil Davidson has said). However, Aquilino did say, “this problem is much closer to us than most think,” and that requires a proposed Pacific Deterrence Initiative funding pool be realized, “in the near term, and with urgency.”

A report from the command delivered last month calls for roughly $27 billion in additional spending between 2022 and 2027; with $4.6 billion for fiscal year 2022 alone. That includes a multi-billion-dollar air defense capability in Guam.”

 

8. The Original Sin of the War in Afghanistan

defenseone.com · by Jonah Blank

Excerpts: “The original sin of the war in Iraq was going to war in Iraq. And the original sin of the war in Afghanistan was going to war in Iraq.

...

What happens next? The U.S. has a special moral debt to the thousands of Afghans who have risked their lives in service to American military and civilian personnel, and they (like their counterparts in Iraq) should be offered the chance to emigrate if they so choose. But the much larger question is what happens to Afghanistan itself. That will be up to the Afghan people, as it always had to be. The Afghans will have to forge their future under far more difficult circumstances now than they would have if their fledgling civil society had been given, say, a decade to really take root. That breathing space could have been provided by U.S. resources that were instead pulled away for the war in Iraq.

There is a real chance that Afghanistan will return to the bloody anarchy of the 1990s. But there’s also a real chance that it won’t. As Vice President Amrullah Saleh recently noted, a generation of Afghans have grown up without the Taliban as overlords, and they won’t surrender their freedoms easily: “The fate of my country,” he said, “does not lie with the last U.S. military helicopter.” The withdrawal of American troops shouldn’t mean the withdrawal of U.S. support for a regime that, with all its (many) flaws, is the most effective government Afghanistan has had for about half a century (admittedly, a rather low bar), and the most representative it has had in its history.

 

9. Cost of Afghan war exceeds $2.26tn and rising

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 21, 2021

 

10. How Cyber Ops Increase the Risk of Accidental Nuclear War

defenseone.com · by George Perkovich and Ariel Levite

Excerpts: “To better inform themselves, both leaderships should mandate that independent “red teams” assess the risks of sensitive cyber operations. It’s too dangerous to let the proposers or conductors of such operations review themselves. Red teaming must consider the possibility and consequences that cyber weapons may spread more than intended and could be reverse engineered for use against one’s own government, businesses, or friends.

China and the United States don’t need to wait for one another to take these steps. Doing this unilaterally, and quickly, will lower the likelihood of an accidental nuclear war that could destroy them both. Ideally, both leaderships – as representatives of great powers – will overcome their political inhibitions and agree to have adult conversations about what more they can do. The longer they wait, the greater the responsibility they will bear for the war that could come.”

 

11. $264B for ICBMs That Would Be Destroyed in the Ground? No, Thanks

defenseone.com · by William J. Perry and Tom Z. Collina

Conclusion: "The Biden administration and Congress should see nuclear land-based missiles for what they really are: a colossal waste of taxpayer money and a catastrophe waiting to happen. But if the political momentum for keeping ICBMs can’t be stopped, then the existing fleet of missiles can be destroyed in the ground for much less cost than buying a new fleet. There is no need to pour hundreds of billions of dollars down the ICBM money pit."

 

12. At least 10 Asia Pacific gov'ts use COVID-19 for censorship, disinformation

rappler.com · by Camille Elemia · April 20, 2021

Some interesting data though I do not think it is too surprising.

 

13. US Nuclear Fears Are Shifting From a Clear Russian Threat to a Murkier Chinese One

defenseone.com · by Patrick Tucker

Excerpts: “But the majority of the questions Richards took related to the Chinese threat. China has 350 or so nukes,  less than one-tenth the active U.S. inventory of around 3,800. But he said that both China and Russia “have significant capability…to produce more warheads,” a capability that the United States does not possess.

He said that’s why China’s mysterious doctrine is so concerning and why the sort of deterrence strategies that the United States pursued during the Cold War no longer work. China, he said, could “use those capabilities coercively in a way that would limit our decision space in crisis. Additionally, it will rip out the underpinnings by which the rest of our forces are employed. We would not be able to deter China from escalating right past us if the stakes were high enough in a crisis or conflict.”

 

14. No Legal Objection, Per Se

warontherocks.com · by E.M. Liddick · April 21, 2021

A thought provoking essay.

 

15. A Bad Case of Déjà Vu

realcleardefense.com · by Thomas Spoehr

Excerpts: “Neither candidate found it advantageous to explain to the American people that, since 2014, the U.S. mission in Afghanistan has been limited to training and assisting the Afghans --- not fighting. But that limited mission was hugely important. Like seasoning in a stew, just a few well-placed advisors and enablers can make a big difference.

...

Afghanistan is not Iraq, but 10 years later, Austin now finds himself in a similar situation, caught between a White House determined to completely pull out of a nascent nation and military commanders—reportedly including Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, and the 4-star commanders of Central Command and Afghanistan—who believe it would be a mistake.

Speaking of those senior military leaders, Austin said, “Their voices were heard and their concerns taken into consideration as the president made his decision. But now the decision has been made, I call upon them to lead their forces ... through this transition.”

President Biden’s Interim National Security Guidance places a high premium on promoting democracy and for “standing behind our allies.” It’s difficult to see that guidance reflected in the decision to depart Afghanistan. And for Lloyd Austin, it must feel like déjà vu all over again.”

 

16. Psychological Warfare: Principles for Global Competition

Small Wars Journal · by Robert Coombs

Conclusion: “In the conduct of psychological warfare sight must never be lost of the fact that a change in attitudes and private opinions amounts to little if it fails to result in deviant, politically relevant behavior.

These principles of psychological warfare are a guide for operations and activities that desire to create behavioral and attitudinal change in foreign audiences. The guiding principles focus on creating tangible behaviors that support policy and objectives of the state. The goal of this document is to give planners and practitioners some guidelines for application of influence-based activities. It is also to place psychological warfare back into the forefront for planning operations. Defeating an enemy armor battalion, injecting a computer virus into a competitor’s network, or negotiating a bilateral agreement all bring about benefits. But, the peak of the U.S.’s capability will always be to influence a foreign nation to align their behaviors and attitudes in-line with our ideas of freedom, liberty, and justice.

 

17. Jetpacks give Special Forces assets the edge

asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · April 20, 2021

 

18. What is China's Belt and Road Initiative and what were the four deals the federal government tore up?

ABC.net.au · April 22, 2021

Australia.

 

19. China’s Creative Challenge—and the Threat to America by Hal Brands

commentarymagazine.com · by Hal Brands · April 16, 2021

Conclusion: “Indeed, America is fully capable of squandering its advantages if it degrades or destroys its own democracy, declines to make domestic reforms and investments to maintain its competitive edge, fails to rally the overlapping coalitions needed to resist Chinese ambitions, or delays in driving the military innovation required to shore up a sagging balance in the Western Pacific. The list of hard policy problems America must urgently solve to prevail against China is itself long and formidable. And even if Washington does prevail in that rivalry, America may absorb significant setbacks—and the international order may absorb significant damage—in the process.

Yet as rough as the road ahead looks from Washington, it ought to look even rougher from Beijing. The Chinese Communist Party runs a profoundly illiberal regime that is trying to overcome centuries of liberal dominance. China is straining against a strategic geography and international system that surely seem more constraining than inviting. Chinese strategists must find a way of breaking America’s position in the Western Pacific while avoiding the potential cataclysm of major war. And Beijing is taking on a superpower that has thrashed all previous comers. Smart strategies have permitted Beijing to do remarkably well, so far, in managing these problems. But many of those strategies face an uncertain future, in part because the international complacency that allowed them to flourish has been replaced—gradually, but increasingly—with international concern.

This isn’t to say that China’s ambitions are hopeless illusions. In the coming years, there will be an intense interaction between an America that is adapting its strategies to deal with a pressing threat and a China that will have to adjust its own approaches in light of that response. Even American success in this interaction could bring new dangers: If Chinese leaders perceive that their window to achieve grand geopolitical goals is closing, then the regime could become even more aggressive in seeking to revise the global order while it still can.

Much thus hinges on the quality of decisions made in Washington and other capitals around the world. But the fact that so many characteristics of modern great-power politics seem to favor the United States probably gives the reigning superpower better options and more room for error than its autocratic challenger. Nothing is predetermined: Beijing may still succeed in displacing the United States as the primary power in Asia and, eventually, the world. Yet if it does, that outcome will represent a catastrophic failure of American statecraft—or an awesome triumph of Chinese strategy in overcoming the great obstacles that litter Beijing’s path to hegemony.

 

20. Today’s Generals and Admirals: What Has Happened to our Senior Military Officers?

standupamericaus.org · by Paul Vallely

A general critiques the generals.

 

---------------

 

“And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.”

- Thomas Jefferson, Letters of Thomas Jefferson

 

“You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man's age-old dream -- the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order --or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path.”
- Ronald Reagan

 

“Democracy is a poor system; the only thing that can be said for it is that it's eight times as good as any other method.”
-  Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. N. Korea seeking to defeat U.S. missile defenses: CRS report

2. U.N. rapporteurs send letter to S. Korea voicing concerns over anti-Pyongyang leafleting ban

3.  Seoul: Peace declaration ending Korean War under U.S. review

4. NK founder’s controversial autobiography published in South Korea

5. Court Rules Wartime Sex Slaves Cannot Sue Japan

6. Biden remarks pour cold water on Seoul’s ‘vaccine swap’ idea

7. S. Korea looks to Russia’s Sputnik V amid vaccine shortage

8. US focused on vaccinating Americans, but may help others later: Price

9. South Korea joins global top 10 economies

10. North Korea tightening up ties with communist nations

11. The Taiwan risk gorilla kicks Kim to Asia's sidelines

12. There are growing signs that official trade will soon begin between China and North Korea

13. Detention facilities in Dandong are "full" of defectors

14. Coercion or Compassion: How Should the U.S. Strategize North Korea’s COVID-19 Crisis?

15. Afghanistan and South Korea

 

1. N. Korea seeking to defeat U.S. missile defenses: CRS report

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · April 22, 2021

Here is the link to the short 2 page CRS report this article references.

 

2. U.N. rapporteurs send letter to S. Korea voicing concerns over anti-Pyongyang leafleting ban

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · April 22, 2021

The South has not protected its moral high ground. Its own goal or self-inflicted wound caused by the anti-leaflet law is harming its international stature.

 

3. Seoul: Peace declaration ending Korean War under U.S. review

upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 21, 2021

Again, I want peace on the Korean peninsula but I have to ask to what end?  How is simply declaring an end of the war going to help advance peace given the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.  If there is a declaration of the end of the war we can expect north Korea, supported by China and Russia, to make a concerted effort to use the end of war declaration as rationale for ending the ROK/US alliance, removing US troops. and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan.  And if an end of war declaration is enacted without any reduction in the offensively postured nKPA force there will be no security for the ROK. And that is one key question that should be answered: How will an end of war declaration enhance the security of South Korea.

 

4. NK founder’s controversial autobiography published in South Korea

koreaherald.com · by Ko Jun-tae · April 22, 2021

I would normally applaud something like this.  People need to know and understand the leadership of the north. I would like to see this be accompanied by a scholarly assessment of the work to help readers understand the propaganda that is being published.

But I think this must be in violation of the ROK national security law, the spirit if not the letter.

This makes the Moon administration look bad, as if it somehow sympathizes with the north.  And of course the ROK government passed a law to prevent information going into north Korea yet allows the publication of propaganda from the north. And then I wonder if there will be any kind of monetary benefit for the north?  While Im Jong Seok be collecting royalties for the regime as he does with north Korean news that is used for broadcast by South Korean media outlets?

 

5. Court Rules Wartime Sex Slaves Cannot Sue Japan

english.chosun.com · April 22, 2021

 

6. Biden remarks pour cold water on Seoul’s ‘vaccine swap’ idea

koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · April 22, 2021

Yet there are reports that the US is soon going to have a surplus (because of vaccine hesitancy and those who refuse to get vaccinated for various reasons from religious, political , conspiracy and personal choice reasons).

 

7. S. Korea looks to Russia’s Sputnik V amid vaccine shortage

koreaherald.com · by Shim Woo-hyun · April 22, 2021

Is it effective? What if it is not? 

 

8. US focused on vaccinating Americans, but may help others later: Price

koreaherald.com · by The Korea Herald · April 22, 2021

 

9.  South Korea joins global top 10 economies

donga.com · April 22, 2021

 

10. North Korea tightening up ties with communist nations

The Korea Times · April 22, 2021

It's only friends?

 

11. The Taiwan risk gorilla kicks Kim to Asia's sidelines

asia.nikkei.com  · by William Pesek · April 21, 2021

But I fear that this could also drive Kim Jong-un to become a "spoiler" in great power competition.  There is some historical irony here. It was Kim Il-sung and his decision to attack the South that prevented Mao from executing his plans to unify China in1950.  Will the Taiwan security situation now take precedence over the Korean security situation?  Of course it cannot be either/or.

 

12. There are growing signs that official trade will soon begin between China and North Korea

dailynk.com  · by Seulkee Jang · April 22, 2021

Again, is China about to provide the safety relief valve for the regime?

 

13. Detention facilities in Dandong are "full" of defectors

dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · April 22, 2021

Another indication that China is complicit in north Korea's human rights abuses.

Excerpts: “The North Korean authorities have been investing higher-than-usual amounts of manpower and equipment in the border region, where they began installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires in March. The authorities are also adding more barriers to existing barbed wire fences with the goal of preventing defections.

Meanwhile, the North Korean authorities have reportedly claimed that COVID-19 prevention is the reason why they continue to refuse China’s request to extradite North Korean defectors.

“Even though the Chinese government is trying to transfer the North Koreans [back to North Korea], the North Korean authorities are not accepting the request because of COVID-19,” the source said. “It appears that North Korean defectors will stay in detention until COVID-19 dies down.”

In addition to refusing to accept extradited defectors, North Korean authorities have also delayed the return of North Koreans working in China due to concerns about the influx of COVID-19.

 

14. Coercion or Compassion: How Should the U.S. Strategize North Korea’s COVID-19 Crisis?

The National Interest · by Timo Kivimäki · April 21, 2021

All our compassion for the suffering of the Korean people in the north will not matter one bit if Kim Jong-un does not share that same compassion. The international community has long been willing to help.  But it is the decision making of Kim Jong-un that both causes the suffering and prevents relief of the suffering.  It is not sanctions, COVID, or natural disasters that are causing the suffering.  The root cause of the suffering is Kim's policy decision making that prioritizes resources for the nuclear and missile programs, the military, and the elite over the welfare of the Korean people.

Lastly, we should keep in mind that offering to provide humanitarian assistance to the people will not cause Kim to either change his behavior or bring him to the negotiating table. 

 

15. Afghanistan and South Korea

The Korea Times · by Donald Kirk · April 22, 2021

My first thought is that Afghanistan and Korea are apples and oranges. As Don notes we have heard no talk from the Biden administration about reducing US forces in Korea.

But I can see how Koreans might think this could be an indication of future decision making.  Koreans were very worried when the decision was made to withdraw troops from Syria (which is even more different from Korean than is the Afghanistan situation).

And I am reminded whenever someone invokes the Vietnam model for north Korea that it is not the economic model that north Korea wants but the diplomatic, security and informational model that Kim desires: He would welcome a peace agreement  that leads to US withdrawal and then when he attacks the South the US decides not to return to Korea to help it despite previous security "guarantees." That is the Vietnam "model" Kim would sign up for.

Hopefully such thinking will be alleviated when the new administration policy is published. 

 

--------

 

“And to preserve their independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. We must make our election between economy and liberty, or profusion and servitude. If we run into such debts, as that we must be taxed in our meat and in our drink, in our necessaries and our comforts, in our labors and our amusements, for our callings and our creeds, as the people of England are, our people, like them, must come to labor sixteen hours in the twenty-four, give the earnings of fifteen of these to the government for their debts and daily expenses; and the sixteenth being insufficient to afford us bread, we must live, as they now do, on oatmeal and potatoes; have no time to think, no means of calling the mismanagers to account; but be glad to obtain subsistence by hiring ourselves to rivet their chains on the necks of our fellow-sufferers.”

- Thomas Jefferson, Letters of Thomas Jefferson

 

“You and I are told we must choose between a left or right, but I suggest there is no such thing as a left or right. There is only an up or down. Up to man's age-old dream -- the maximum of individual freedom consistent with order --or down to the ant heap of totalitarianism. Regardless of their sincerity, their humanitarian motives, those who would sacrifice freedom for security have embarked on this downward path.”
- Ronald Reagan

 

“Democracy is a poor system; the only thing that can be said for it is that it's eight times as good as any other method.”
-  Robert A. Heinlein, Stranger in a Strange Land