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Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. SOCOM diversity chief reassigned, AFSOC’s A-29s, Montagnards of Vietnam, ASD SO/LIC, Russia in the Arctic, border crisis, Sahel, Mozambique, podcasts, books, and videos.
A discussion on John Billings' recently published book "Special Duties Pilot" about specialized B-24 missions during World War II. The virtual event is on 28 April.
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/oh-so-social-conversation-capt-john-billings-and-gen-norton-schwartz-registration-147782021003?ref=eios
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. A Tribute to Charles Hill
2. Gray Is the New Black: A Framework to Counter Gray Zone Conflicts
3. Is China willing and able to invade Taiwan?
4. In The Shadow Of A Missile: Assessing The Armenian Military’s SS-26 Iskander Debacle
5. The word 'radicalization' has lost all meaning. That's very dangerous
6. DoD to Spend a Quarter-Billion Dollars Reorganizing Its Data for AI
7. Rise of female militants poses challenge for war on terror
8. U.S. Looks to Build On Secret Portions of Taliban Deal to Reduce Violence
9. When Online Conspiracies Turn Deadly: A Custody Battle and a Killing
10. Human Rights Hypocrisy: Why Blinken Misses the Mark
11. Army advisers make first mission to the Maldives, a strategic area of the Indian Ocean
12. Army captain sets women's world record for mile run in a bomb disposal suit
13. Philippines Accuses China Of Plans To Occupy More South China Sea 'Features'
14. The Military Faces of COVID-19: 5 Stories of Lives the Community Lost to the Virus
15. Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company Norinco placed under investigation
16. Marwa Elselehdar: 'I was blamed for blocking the Suez Canal'
17. The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man
18. Panic Rooms, Birth Certificates and the Birth of GOP Paranoia by John Boehner (book excerpt)
1. A Tribute to Charles Hill
The National Interest · by Daniel Khalessi · April 3, 2021
A giant of a man who was not well-known as a national figure. I commend his biography and his book on Grand Strategies.
2. Gray Is the New Black: A Framework to Counter Gray Zone Conflicts
ndupress.ndu.edu · by Captain Bothwell
I am glad Captain Bothwell calls out the lack of doctrine for the gray zone and the problem with the use of the 6 phase phasing construct as applied to the gray zone. Fortunately Joint Pub 5-0 has eliminated that as a standard template. I think a standard phasing template lacks intellectual rigor (whether applied to the gray zone or for "traditional" campaign plans and stifles the necessary creativity required for campaign planning and execution.
Conclusion: “The gradual, ambiguous nature of gray zone conflicts requires increased understanding of aggression short of war and of new strategies to quell these challenges. Although current doctrine does not adequately address gray zone conflicts, existing planning models can be modified to emphasize shaping and incorporate activities that deter, signal, and, if necessary, coerce opponents into ceasing aggression. These activities will reduce uncertainty and communicate resolve to our adversaries, while setting the operational conditions to coercively stop them, if required. Early U.S. failure to recognize and respond to China’s gray zone actions in the South China Sea has facilitated additional incursions and emboldened Chinese forays into other arenas. New strategy options to mitigate China’s influence are required, and military planning efforts to address this and other gray zone conflicts should follow.
Gray zone conflicts are aspects of the new normal, part of the competitive operational environment that has developed in the post–Cold War era. Joint planning has not yet adequately addressed gray zone conflicts or the gradualist approaches by which they are characterized, allowing opponents—revisionist states—to incrementally achieve their objectives while avoiding military consequences. Unchecked, gray zone conflicts will slowly erode the status quo and undermine U.S. interests. However, the joint force can be more agile. By modifying existing planning models to incorporate countering activities—such as shaping, deterring, signaling, and, if necessary, coercing—the United States can check revisionist intentions. Only by reframing the problem of gray zone conflicts can the United States hope to retain positional advantage where national interests are at stake.
3. Is China willing and able to invade Taiwan?
asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · April 2, 2021
The $64,000 question - intent and capability.
The ominous conclusion which I am sure will create some debate and discussion: "All this is to say that it’s impossible to predict exactly when China may move on Taiwan. But with a high degree of confidence (as intelligence types say), this can be said: The PLA is coming."
4. In The Shadow Of A Missile: Assessing The Armenian Military’s SS-26 Iskander Debacle
edam.org.tr · by Can Kasapoğlu · March 31, 2021
A variation of the Iskander has been developed, tested, and deployed by north Korea. Are there lessons for the ROK/US alliance?
5. The word 'radicalization' has lost all meaning. That's very dangerous
Newsweek · by Simon Cottee · April 2, 2021
Excerpts: “So it wasn't the violent lethality of the protesters that caused the freak-out among progressives, who wasted no time in calling them domestic terrorists. It was, rather, their dirtiness, which was then transformed into dangerousness, all the better for flushing them out. At the same time, the discourse of danger served to mask the imperious revulsion that the elite Democrats felt toward Trump's seething, radicalized, dirty masses.
Despite the high-minded rhetoric, all the "reckonings" that are now going on in America are actually reckonings with dirt. No doubt some of Trump's followers are dangerous. But the real throb which animates the progressive response to his disgruntled base isn't really fear; it is disgust. It is the feeling of being contaminated and sullied by that which doesn't belong, which Trump really was all along.
And one prominent casualty of this is the concept of radicalization, which has now, for many, become a signifier of dirt.
We should resist this degradation of the concept, for if we extend radicalization to include everything foul and odious we perilously risk losing sight of the really lethal threats in our midst.”
6. DoD to Spend a Quarter-Billion Dollars Reorganizing Its Data for AI
defenseone.com · by Mila Jasper · April 3, 2021
7. Rise of female militants poses challenge for war on terror
straitstimes.com · by Arlina Arshad · April 3, 2021
8. U.S. Looks to Build On Secret Portions of Taliban Deal to Reduce Violence
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff · April 4, 2021
Excerpts: “It is unlikely the United States and Taliban will reach a new deal before May 1, analysts say, unless U.S. officials are willing to make serious concessions to prevent a violent offensive this spring, one that seems to already have started given the series of large attacks and assassinations by the Taliban in recent days.
Some experts have criticized the United States’ narrow focus on a short-term reduction of violence as a distraction from the larger effort of reaching a political settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban.
“I am hard pressed to see what payoff there’s been for the amount of effort that has been put into trying to get limited violence reduction front-loaded in the peace process,” said Laurel E. Miller, a former top State Department official who worked on Afghanistan and Pakistan diplomacy under the previous two administrations. “It might be helpful for political optics in covering for an American withdrawal. But what’s going to make this stick afterward if there isn’t a real settlement? Nothing.”
9. When Online Conspiracies Turn Deadly: A Custody Battle and a Killing
WSJ · by Georgia Wells and Justin Scheck
More QAnon whackjobs.
10. Human Rights Hypocrisy: Why Blinken Misses the Mark
The National Interest · by Russell A. Berman · April 3, 2021
Conclusion: Despite Blinken’s unwillingness to address the tension between deontological rights and utilitarian policy, his overall commitment to rights deserves applause, and not only because the substance of his remarks is largely consistent with the commission’s report. This overlap in rights thinking across the two administrations involves one other particularly salient point. The commission faced strident criticism specifically for grounding the United States’ obligation to a human-rights foreign policy in a distinctively American tradition, the notion since the Declaration of Independence that rights are “unalienable.” Opponents of the Commission complained that grounding rights in an American credo puts us on a slippery slope to cultural relativism, undermining aspirations to the universality of rights. It is therefore particularly noteworthy that in Blinken’s remarks he does not hesitate to justify U.S. rights advocacy explicitly in terms of a distinctive American tradition. “Standing for people’s freedom and dignity honors America’s most sacred values.” Amen.
11. Army advisers make first mission to the Maldives, a strategic area of the Indian Ocean
armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · April 4, 2021
12. Army captain sets women's world record for mile run in a bomb disposal suit
Stars and Stripes · by Joe Gromelski
Hooah.
13. Philippines Accuses China Of Plans To Occupy More South China Sea 'Features'
Barron's · by AFP - Agence France Presse
Is China making a major move?
14. The Military Faces of COVID-19: 5 Stories of Lives the Community Lost to the Virus
military.com · by Patricia Kime · April 4, 2021
The impact on the military and families has not received much attention.
15. Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company Norinco placed under investigation
SCMP · by Lauren Zhou · April 4, 2021
Corruption in China: ex-boss of arms company
Norinco placed under investigation
16. Marwa Elselehdar: 'I was blamed for blocking the Suez Canal'
BBC News · by Joshua Cheetham
Yep. I saw her accused of this mishap on multiple social media platforms.
17. The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man
The Atlantic · by Derek Thompson · April 1, 2021
Misdirection. No one should fall for Berenson's crap.
18. Panic Rooms, Birth Certificates and the Birth of GOP Paranoia by John Boehner (book excerpt)
Politico · by ON THE HOUSE
Regardless of your politics this is a fascinating read. I am sure this book by John Beohner will debut at the top of the best seller list.
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"Discipline, however, needs first and foremost leadership, and not regulations. The former can only be provided by example."
- Jorg Muth
“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”
- Major General Carl von Clausewitz
President Kennedy 1962 USMA gradation:
“This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origins - war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It requires - in those situations where we must encounter it - a whole new kind of strategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of military training.”
President Obama 2009 USNA graduation:
“History teaches us that nations that grow comfortable with the old ways and complacent in the face of new threats, those nations do not long endure. And in the 21st century, we do not have the luxury of deciding which challenges to prepare for and which to ignore. We must overcome the full spectrum of threats – the conventional and unconventional; the nation-state and the terrorists network; the spread of deadly technologies and the spread of hateful ideologies; 18th century-style piracy and 21st century cyber threats.”
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. KNDA chancellor casts critical eye on Korea-US alliance in new book
2. NK’s denuclearization receives fresh attention at top security meetings
3. Pyongyang hunkers down to explore next move
4. US, China push South Korea into tricky balancing act
5. US, Japan, ROK hold meeting on Korean Peninsula situation
6. U.S. 7th Fleet Commander visits South Korea
7. South Korean commission cancels probe into Cheonan warship sinking
8. The Biggest Threats North Korea Made To The US
9. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move
10. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move
11. Keep diplomatic balance (ROK): New strategy needed to avoid US-China rivalry
12. Korea needs to consider joining Quad to make 'Penta'
13. China’s Dangerous Double Game In North Korea
14. S.Korea minister expects China to play role in N.Korea peacemaking
15. US, Asian allies urge North Korea to limit nuclear program
16. Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot
17. US Olympic star Chloe Kim reveals anti-Asian abuse
18. Dire situation in North Korea drives 'collective exit' of diplomats
19. Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers
1. KNDA chancellor casts critical eye on Korea-US alliance in new book
koreaherald.com · by Lim Jang-won · April 1, 2021
It saddens me to read this. Although I have always wondered about Chancellor Kim's views of the alliance because during the many conferences I have participated in with him over the years his comments always seemed slightly out of tune, I had no idea of the depths of his anti-alliance sentiment.
However, I do agree with the theme as notes here:
“The main theme repeated throughout the book is that the South Korea-US alliance should be a means to seek the national interest. In other words, the national interest needs to come first, before the South Korea-US alliance.
There should be no doubt that ROK interests must come first for Korea just as American interests must come first for the US ahead of the alliance. However, I think many of the characterizations of the alliance he describes are not completely accurate. And I think our interest have long been sufficiently aligned to support our respective national interests. Yes there have been many mistakes in the alliance and many friction points but I believe we share values, we share interests and we share common threats and challenges. The friction builds as we have different perspective on how to address those threats and challenges.
That said we must take his views seriously and I hope his book is published in English. I believe his interpretation of the history in the book will be enlightening. The reason we need to take his views seriously is because of this conclusion. I fear his views reflect those of a large segment of the ruling party and the progressives in South Korea:
Conclusion: "While Kim chronicles the past 150 years with expertise, the claim that a book by the head of the country’s major diplomatic institution that is critical of the state of the Korea-US alliance and urges a change reflects solely the personal opinion of an academic is not one that can easily be accepted at face value."
2. NK’s denuclearization receives fresh attention at top security meetings
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · April 4, 2021
I think we need to shift from using denuclearization to emphasizing implementation of UN National Security Council Resolutions (such as was in the joint statement from the three national security advisors). The UNSCRs provide the basis for every line of effort for a new policy and strategy - end the full spectrum of WMD programs (nuclear, biological and chemical), end the ballistic program, end proliferation around the world, end global illicit activities, end cyber attacks, end overseas slave labor, and end human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north.
Who is opposed to full implementation of the UNSCRs against the north (other than north Korea, China, and Russia)?
3. Pyongyang hunkers down to explore next move
The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · April 4, 2021
Interesting comment from Harry. I assume he assesses the new US policy will consists of continued pressure and no sanctions relief. The big questions for me are: Will the regime stick to its seven decades old playbook? Or will it abandon that playbook because it has determined that the playbook no longer works? What actions can we take to show Kim his play book, his long con, and his political warfare (and his military ) strategy has not worked and will not work and that he must finally abandoned those failed strategies and enter the community of nations and negotiate responsibly.?
Excerpts: “North Korea watchers said Pyongyang's reclusive actions are not just the outcome of the efforts to contain the coronavirus, but a tactic to handle its diplomatic situation down the road.
"For now, North Korea is hunkering down and limiting any and all information it can," Harry Kazianis, senior director at the U.S.-based think tank Center for the National Interest, told The Korea Times.
"North Korea knows, at least for now, that it will not be able to fully vaccinate its population from COVID-19 nor gain any sort of sanctions relief from the U.S. or its allies anytime soon. What the regime is doing is whatever it can to keep any information outflows to as limited as possible while it plots its next moves forward," Kazianis said. "The Kim family knows the next year will be very hard as likely international pressure will mount as the Joe Biden administration will surely increase pressure and sanctions on the regime."
4. US, China push South Korea into tricky balancing act
The Korea Times · by Nam Hyun-woo · April 4, 2021
The proverbial shrimp among whales.
Key point: "China is also ramping up efforts to strengthen its relations with South Korea to counter the U.S.' anti-Beijing campaign."
5. US, Japan, ROK hold meeting on Korean Peninsula situation
chinadaily.com.cn · by 代艳
Reporting from China. Note the concluding paragraph provides north Korea's view of the meetings: "Ri Pyong-chol, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, responded that "such remarks from the US president are an undisguised encroachment on our state's right to self-defense and provocation to it."
6. U.S. 7th Fleet Commander visits South Korea
navy.mil · April 1, 2021
Excerpt: “As the U.S. Navy's largest forward-deployed fleet, 7th Fleet employs 50-70 ships and submarines across the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans. U.S. 7th Fleet routinely operates and interacts with 35 maritime nations while conducting missions to preserve and protect a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
7. South Korean commission cancels probe into Cheonan warship sinking
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · April 2, 2021
Good. This was an insult to the families and memories of those 46 sailors who were murdered by north Korea.
8. The Biggest Threats North Korea Made To The US
grunge.com · by Thomas A Brown · April 2, 2021
9. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move
38north.org · by Leon V. Sigal · April 2, 2021
I think not only is this a fantasy recommendation, it is dangerous. If Biden sends such a letter to Kim and pledges lifting of even some sanctions, Kim will interpret that as success of his long conn, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy. We need to strive for negotiations after and only after Kim Jong-un comes to the realization that his long con, political warfare strategy (and military strategy) and blackmail diplomacy are no longer viable. It is only after he accepts the failure of his seven decades old playbook that he might be willing to come to the table and negotiate a substantive agreement.
Excerpt: "Another possible step might be to pledge to ease some economic sanctions by allowing exemptions from United Nations Security Council sanctions to permit the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Zone or the import of some oil by the North and/or the export of coal or textiles for two years, or as long as negotiations are moving ahead. Communicated in a letter from Biden to Kim, such an initiative would constitute a clear move away from enmity and fitting reciprocity for the North Korean test moratorium, as well as significant inducements to serious and sustained negotiations."
10. To Spark Talks With North Korea, Biden Should Make the First Move
38north.org · by Leon V. Sigal · April 2, 2021
I think not only is this a fantasy recommendation, it is dangerous. If Biden sends such a letter to Kim and pledges lifting of even some sanctions, Kim will interpret that as success of his long conn, political warfare strategy, and blackmail diplomacy. He will then double down and we will see no progress or even a possible path toward desired objectives. We need to strive for negotiations after and only after Kim Jong-un comes to the realization that his long con, political warfare strategy (and military strategy) and blackmail diplomacy are no longer viable. It is only after he accepts the failure of his seven decades old playbook that he might be willing to come to the table and negotiate a substantive agreement.
Excerpt: "Another possible step might be to pledge to ease some economic sanctions by allowing exemptions from United Nations Security Council sanctions to permit the reopening of the Kaesong Industrial Zone or the import of some oil by the North and/or the export of coal or textiles for two years, or as long as negotiations are moving ahead. Communicated in a letter from Biden to Kim, such an initiative would constitute a clear move away from enmity and fitting reciprocity for the North Korean test moratorium, as well as significant inducements to serious and sustained negotiations."
11. Keep diplomatic balance (ROK): New strategy needed to avoid US-China rivalry
The Korea Times · April 4, 2021
Yes, this is the ROK challenge. How is it going to balance between the PRC and US?
Excerpt: “It appears that the U.S. and China are wooing South Korea to their respective sides amid the great power rivalry. Chung said last Wednesday that South Korea is not in a position to choose between the U.S. and China. Yet, we need a new strategy to prepare for when the rival powers force us to do that.”
12. Korea needs to consider joining Quad to make 'Penta'
The Korea Times · by Park Jin · April 4, 2021
Quad - Penta - we need to rebrand the collective organizational concepts for Asia. Key point on the trade equivalency of the Quad and China for South Korea. The key point must be the willingness of the Quad to come to the aid of the South when China (AGAIN) conducts economic warfare against the South.
Excerpts: “South Korea's trade dependence on the Quad is around 25 percent, equivalent to that of China. The four Quad nations are, much like Korea, highly reliant on trade with China. Thus, the argument that Korea's high dependence on trade with China makes joining the Quad an impediment to its partnership with China is invalid.
South Korea and the U.S. have increased their mutual trade and investments through the successful ROK-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. Korea has also signed FTAs with Australia and India, and expects to enter indirect free trade relations with Japan through the recently signed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). By facilitating regional trade, investments and services, the Quad will greatly contribute to economic growth and prosperity in the region. Seoul should widen and deepen its cooperation with the Quad nations to develop core technologies such as artificial intelligence, 5G, clean energy, bio-health and cybersecurity. Collaboration for coronavirus vaccine production and equitable access and collective efforts to combat climate change are also important.
South Korea is a dynamic economic powerhouse located in the geopolitical pivot of Northeast Asia. The strategic choice that Korea makes between the U.S. and China will significantly affect the political, economic and security environment of the Indo-Pacific region. Korea joining the Quad is only common sense and an inevitable course of history.
It is only natural for a state that has shared values of liberal democracy and rule of law to join the Quad and make a "Penta," a group of five. Korea should not retract into being an outlier but take a leading role in the formulation of a new democratic order in the region.
13. China’s Dangerous Double Game In North Korea
Foreign Affairs · by Oriana Skylar Mastro · April 2, 2021
Important analysis from Dr. Sklyer Mastro.
However, I think arms control negotiations will be deemed by Kim Jong-un as a successful outcome of his strategy and we can expect to double down on his long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy.
One of the many strategic paradoxes on the Korean peninsula:
“If Beijing were to do nothing to assist in denuclearization, the United States could lose confidence in diplomacy and decide instead to increase its military presence on the peninsula or even to take military action. But if Beijing does too much to help the United States, North Korea could collapse, and the whole peninsula could fall within the U.S. orbit.”
I also do not hold out any hope for complete cooperation from China.
Conclusion: “Some Biden advisers, including Kurt Campbell, have called for a bolder approach. One possibility is for Washington to shift its focus from denuclearization to arms control. Under this scenario, the United States would accept North Korea as a de facto nuclear state and take measures to enhance deterrence against it, such as stepping up the U.S. military presence and tightening military cooperation with allies in the region. China would have a harder time than before delegitimizing the U.S. military presence in the region and just might be compelled to do what is necessary to induce North Korea’s denuclearization, even at the cost of destabilizing the regime.
Biden’s new approach to North Korea must force China to tip its carefully constructed balance toward either complete cooperation or obvious obstruction. Depending on which way China goes, the United States can then decide whether to include Beijing or cut it out of its North Korea policy efforts. But one thing is clear: conducting business as usual with Beijing hurts U.S. objectives in both denuclearization and competition with China.
14. S.Korea minister expects China to play role in N.Korea peacemaking
Reuters · by Cynthia Kim and Andrew Galbraith · April 3, 2021
I am not so optimistic.
15. US, Asian allies urge North Korea to limit nuclear program
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
A view from Germany.
16. Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot
SCMP · by John Power · April 4, 2021
This is a very complex issue in Korea.
Anti-Asian hate: in South Korea, reports of attacks on Asian-Americans focus on suspects’ race – a lot
17. US Olympic star Chloe Kim reveals anti-Asian abuse
The Korea Times · April 4, 2021
So frustrating and tragic. We have to be better than this.
18. Dire situation in North Korea drives 'collective exit' of diplomats
The Guardian · by Andrew Roth · April 1, 2021
Indicators of the situation inside north Korea and Pyongyang.
19. Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Chea Sarah
The soft power terrain is being contested between China and South Korea.
Kimchi wars continue as shirtless cabbage wrangler shocks consumers
------------------
"Discipline, however, needs first and foremost leadership, and not regulations. The former can only be provided by example."
- Jorg Muth
“Thus it has come about that our theoretical and critical literature, instead of giving plain, straightforward arguments in which the author at least always knows what he is saying and the reader what he is reading, is crammed with jargon, ending at obscure crossroads where the author loses its readers. Sometimes these books are even worse: they are just hollow shells. The author himself no longer knows just what he is thinking and soothes himself with obscure ideas which would not satisfy him if expressed in plain speech.”
- Major General Carl von Clausewitz
President Kennedy 1962 USMA gradation:
“This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origins - war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins; war by ambush instead of combat; by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy instead of engaging him. It requires - in those situations where we must encounter it - a whole new kind of strategy, a wholly different kind of force, and therefore, a new and wholly different kind of military training.”
President Obama 2009 USNA graduation:
“History teaches us that nations that grow comfortable with the old ways and complacent in the face of new threats, those nations do not long endure. And in the 21st century, we do not have the luxury of deciding which challenges to prepare for and which to ignore. We must overcome the full spectrum of threats – the conventional and unconventional; the nation-state and the terrorists network; the spread of deadly technologies and the spread of hateful ideologies; 18th century-style piracy and 21st century cyber threats.”
A book for review. If you are interested in reviewing this book for Small Wars Journal, please email submit@smallwarsjournal.com (and please use a clear subject line for the sake of our editor). We can discuss getting a hard copy if you are conducting a review for us.
The full book is available for free online: https://www.usmcu.edu/Portals/218/OnContestedShores_web.pdf?ver=AazTk0F5BiI2fIn8ElhCBA%3d%3d
Analysis and commentary on recent testimony before the House Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations on the state of the special operations community
https://sof.news/sof/congressional-hearing-sof-culture-climate-mar-2021/
Panel Participants.
Ms. Linda Robinson is a long-time observer of US SOF. She is the author of Masters of Chaos: The Secret History of the Special Forces and of numerous papers and articles about SOF. Currently she is the Director of the Center for Middle East Public Policy at the RAND Corporation.
Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, US Army (Ret.) had a long career in SOF spanning over 3 decades with US Army Special Forces and other special mission units (SMUs). He is a former commander of Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT).
Ms. Kate Germano retired from the United States Marine Corps with the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. She is the author of Fight Like a Girl: The Truth Behind How Female Marines Are Trained. The book details her professional battle against systemic gender bias in the Marines.
Mr. Mark Mitchell is a retired 0-6 that served many years in U.S. Army Special Forces. He is also a former (acting) Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict (SO/LIC). He is a frequent commentator and writer about SOF and the need for ASD SO/LIC to have a closer relationship with the Secretary of Defense and more oversight on United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
A conversation with Col. Brian Rauen and Capt. Barrett Martin from 10th Special Forces Group and Dr. Ryan Burke of Project 6633
https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-special-operations-forces-in-the-high-north/
"The US Army’s Special Forces groups are largely oriented toward specific regions, and 10th Group has a particular focus on Europe—which means they have a natural organizational interest in the Arctic region. Last year, Capt. Martin led a team that went to the high northern latitudes in Europe to train alongside Norwegian and Swedish forces. He shares some of what his team learned during that experience, and Col. Rauen talks about why the Arctic is an area of growing importance for 10th Group. They also discuss some of the especially unique challenges posed to special operations forces working in such an extreme environment.
10th Group and Project 6633 have also partnered to host an essay contest, inviting submissions that address the question of how American special operations forces can compete with near-peer adversaries in the polar regions. If you’re interested in entering the contest, you can find more details here."
Link: https://mwi.usma.edu/the-united-kingdom-doubles-down-on-covert-operations/
A commentary on role of covert operations in the UK's recent integrated defense review
"Two weeks ago, the British government published its most significant review of defense, security, and foreign policy since the end of the Cold War. It will likely usher in a new era of British covert interventionism.
The 114-page integrated review, titled “Global Britain in a Competitive Age,” emphasizes “Global Britain,” a slogan coined by the governing Conservative Party in the aftermath of the country’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016. The review highlights that the British government wants to maintain global influence, including by tilting toward the geographically distant Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, however, Britain perennially lacks the capabilities sufficient to meet its ambitions—and even more so now given the damage Covid-19 has done to the British economy.
In an attempt to reconcile global ambitions with limited means, the review, together with an accompanying Defence Command Paper, emphasizes secret intelligence, special operations forces, and offensive cyber capabilities. They will be used to disrupt, deter, deny, and degrade Britain’s adversaries. All are tools of force multiplication; the power of the hidden hand will allow Britain to do more with less."
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden
2. US touts ambassador’s historic visit to Taiwan, despite China’s ‘red line’ threat
3. Closer Taiwan-US ties are stabilising the region, not the opposite
4. Former US military adviser’s tweets help injured Afghan pilot get surgery
5. U.S. defense officials reassure Ukraine of support amid tension with Russia
6. Opinion | What if the former CDC director is right about the Wuhan labs?
7. Historic Marine Plan to Reinvent The Corps EXCLUSIVE
8. The United Kingdom Doubles Down on Covert Operations
9. FDD | A Diplomat’s Trip to Taiwan Draws the Ire of the CCP
10. The three Rs: A case officer perspective on future CIA-special operations forces relations
11. One of Army’s first female Rangers speaks during Founders Day dinner
12. A Future Chinese Indian Ocean Fleet?
13. Violent Extremism in America: Firsthand Accounts
14. Analysis: How Russian hackers were able to access DHS secretary’s email
15. What Is DevSecOps, Anyway?
16. Let’s Get Real About US Military ‘Dominance’
17. America Is Four Years Away From Being Outmatched By China
1. Japan’s Suga to Be the First Foreign Leader to Meet With Biden
Bloomberg · by Isabel Reynolds · April 2, 2021
Excerpts: “Suga, a diplomatic novice, has come under pressure, including from lawmakers in his own party, to join other major democracies in imposing sanctions on China over human rights abuses against the Uyghur ethnic group in China’s far-western region of Xinjiang.
The U.S., Canada, the European Union and the U.K. have all imposed such economic penalties, spurring calls for Japan to follow suit, particularly with the Group of Seven summit in the U.K. coming up in June. While Japan has expressed concern about the situation in Xinjiang, it lacks a legal framework to impose sanctions.”
2. US touts ambassador’s historic visit to Taiwan, despite China’s ‘red line’ threat
Washington Examiner · by Joel Gehrke · April 1, 2021
Excerpts: “Such meetings are likely to continue and involve other governments when possible, to judge from other statements this week by U.S. officials.
“We're also working to enlarge Taiwan's ability to interact with the international community in a way that reflects Taiwan's potential contributions,” U.S. Charge d'Affaires Mike Goldman, the top American diplomat in Australia pending the absence of a Senate-confirmed ambassador, said in a newly released Australian National University National Security College podcast.
Those efforts have intensified during the pandemic, particularly following China’s successful insistence that Taiwan remain barred from participating in World Health Assembly discussions of the emerging public health crisis — an “appalling” exclusion, Goldman said.
“We're also committed to supporting Taiwan's ability to have its legitimate voice heard in international fora,” the diplomat said.
3. Closer Taiwan-US ties are stabilising the region, not the opposite
lowyinstitute.org · by Natasha Kassam
Excerpts: “China’s calculation about Taiwan’s future will shift as the confidence of the PLA grows. This situation is made more dangerous by what appears to be a looming gap in perception, as China sees itself as becoming more powerful while the US is in terminal decline.
In this context, it would be possible for US support to cross an invisible line in Beijing’s eyes. Some have called for the US to change its approach to Taiwan from “strategic ambiguity”, where it remains unknown whether the US would defend Taiwan if attacked, to “strategic clarity”, where the US makes explicit it would respond to any use of force against Taiwan. This change risks undermining decades of successful deterrence, and carries a high risk of escalation, where China’s leaders would no longer see time as on their side.”
4. Former US military adviser’s tweets help injured Afghan pilot get surgery
Stars and Stripes · by JP Lawreence and Zubair Babakarkhail · April 1, 2021
The power of twitter and a committed military advisor.
Excerpts (and advice for all professionals committed to the mission): “Taking care of your people is the primary duty of any military officer, and regardless of whether I am with him or not, if I had the capability to do something, I was going to,” he said.
5. U.S. defense officials reassure Ukraine of support amid tension with Russia
upi.com · by Christen McCurdy · April 1, 2021
6. Opinion | What if the former CDC director is right about the Wuhan labs?
The Washington Post · by Josh Rogin · April 1, 2021
"unpleasant facts."
Conclusion: “If Redfield is right, that would mean China bears some accountability for the outbreak, which will greatly complicate already tense relations. If Redfield is right, that would also mean the U.S. government had a big role in supporting the research that resulted in the pandemic outbreak. If Redfield is right, the current response plan could greatly increase, not reduce, the risk of another pandemic.
These are all very unpleasant facts. But facts are stubborn things. And we have no choice but to pursue all possible theories and accept whatever truth the facts lead to. This must be done in a nonpolitical way, to show Beijing and the world that we still have the ability to place public health and truth above the narratives to which we have become beholden.
7. Historic Marine Plan to Reinvent The Corps EXCLUSIVE
breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary
Excerpts: “Changes of the scale that Berger is proposing won’t come without a fight however.
Over the past two years, the commandant has outlined by far the most sweeping changes to the size and composition of his force of any of the Joint Chiefs, and will have to make that case again this spring to Congress when the 2022 budget is released. Recently, Berger sent a memo to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin advising him he will not request any more money in the 2022 budget.
To pay for these new drones, ships, and missiles, Berger has said he plans to divest of the Corps’ inventory of Abrams tanks and shed 12,000 Marines, along with towed artillery, aircraft and helicopters. He has also pledged to reduce the number of F-35s in squadrons while questioning the role the aircraft will play in his plans going forward. Those ideas will now run into the desires of members of Congress with jobs, and prestige at home, on the line.
8. The United Kingdom Doubles Down on Covert Operations
mwi.usma.edu · by Rory Cormac · April 2, 2021
Conclusion: Perhaps these answers lie in more detailed documents that remain classified; perhaps not. But if covert operations are to succeed, policymakers need to think carefully about three things: First, what do they actually want covert operations to achieve? What does success look like? Clear and concrete objectives are essential, as is a recognition that disruption alone does not solve problems. Covert operations need to be integrated into broader policy. Second, policymakers need to balance this integration and interdepartmental coordination with the need for a quick and flexible response—a challenge that has proved difficult in the past. Third, parliament’s oversight bodies need to play a greater role in monitoring special operations activity, especially the use of partners and proxies. While pragmatism is essential in international relations and irregular warfare more specifically, picking the wrong proxies can be disastrous. The reviews are a good start to many of these issues. But the devil will be in the details.
9. FDD | A Diplomat’s Trip to Taiwan Draws the Ire of the CCP
fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · April 1, 2021
Excerpts: “Other diplomatic moves may be in the works as well. On March 25, the House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced a bipartisan bill led by Republican Rep. Young Kim and Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, both of California, urging the State Department to restore Taiwan’s observer status at the World Health Organization. Taiwan had such status until 2017, when Beijing forced it out of the WHO. During a press briefing the day after the bill was introduced, the CCP’s Hua blasted the bill as a “serious breach of the One China principle” and urged the U.S. “not to help the Taiwan region to expand its so-called ‘international space.’
”The U.S. and Taiwan also signed a memorandum of understanding this week that will pave the way for greater coordination between their respective coast guards. The intent is to make the porcupine a bit pricklier should Beijing seek to take it in the near future. The increased cooperation is also intended to serve as a response to the CCP’s increasingly hostile maritime actions. Naturally, Hua was not amused, telling reporters that the U.S. should “stop official exchanges and military interactions with Taiwan and be prudent on Taiwan-related issues.” Hua also urged “Taiwan not to try to add to its importance by soliciting U.S. support.”
The increasing tension is easy to see. Speaking at China’s annual National People’s Congress earlier this week, Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned the Biden administration that the CCP’s claim on Taiwan is an “insurmountable red line” that shouldn’t be crossed.
It may only be a matter of time until the CCP decides to erase the red line altogether.
10. The three Rs: A case officer perspective on future CIA-special operations forces relations
Washington Examiner · by Marc Polymeropoulos · April 1, 2021
Excerpts: “I view this issue from the unique perspective of my old job as a CIA case officer in the field, where the rubber meets the road with a front-row seat to how we both collect intelligence and fight. I suggest that we look at the three Rs, relationships, resources, and Russia (and similar foes), as we assess the future CIA-SOF relationship.
...
True, there are challenges to overcome. This shift may take a change in mindset for SOF because there is no kinetic finish component to such operations. Truth be told, the "three F" fight had become a drug for many of us in both outfits. We relished the finality of the finish portion, as the target was neutralized and one less terrorist was alive to threaten our fellow citizens. The near-peer world is not like this at all, and SOF will need to adapt. For example, manhunting on near-peer entities is just one part of an operation. Compartmentalization, or person-to-person limitation of access to intelligence, will necessitate that SOF units may never know the fruits of their labor. If SOF obtained a pattern of life profile for a Chinese intelligence officer and then passed this targeting package to the CIA for a potential recruitment approach, it is likely that SOF will never know the results. There are no Zero Dark Thirty movies made after conducting a month of surveillance on a hostile intelligence officer.
I'm confident these three Rs can be the foundations of the future CIA-SOF relationship. We proved to be outstanding partners in the two decades following 9/11, and there is no reason why this relationship should not flourish in the post-2021 environment.”
11. One of Army’s first female Rangers speaks during Founders Day dinner
dvidshub.net · by Jorge Garcia
Good words and lessons, Ranger. One of my most vivid memories of the swamp phase at Ranger School is carrying the M60 through the swamp, the sling breaking, and the blank adapter and leaf spring coming off. The previous M60 gunner received a major minus spot report for losing the blank adapter. Fortunately we came to a halt on one of those little islands in the swamp and I was able to repair the sling (550 cord) and get the leaf strong reattached and secured and the blank adapter tightened down. Murphy was all over us at that time.
12. A Future Chinese Indian Ocean Fleet?
warontherocks.com · by Christopher Colley · April 2, 2021
Conclusion: Overall, China’s increasing ties to the Indian Ocean and beyond have expanded enormously over the past two decades, and in a future post-COVID-19 world, this will continue. Chinese analysts and government entities are increasingly calling for some form of Indian Ocean fleet/force that can protect and project China’s interests. Crucially, based on the available evidence consisting of port infrastructure projects, various statements from the government and China-based scholars/analysts, as well as new naval hardware, it appears that China does intend to develop some sort of Indian Ocean force. While China will never establish full sea control in the Indian Ocean, it will likely possess the ability to provide a credible deterrent to other states that may threaten Chinese sea lines of communication or entities. However, while China increasingly has the surface combatants to conduct meaningful power projection in the Indian Ocean and has even carried out live-fire exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, critically the PLAN lacks the requisite protection of air power. Beijing will eventually solve the hardware component of its “Indian Ocean Dilemma.” However, the political dilemma of what to do about bases and, of greater strategic importance, what to do about the growing security relationship between India and the United States, which is driven by Chinese activities, may prove to be the biggest obstacle to China’s long-term Indian Ocean ambitions.
13. Violent Extremism in America: Firsthand Accounts
rand.org · by Ryan Andrew Brown, Todd C. Helmus, Rajeev Ramchand, Alina I. Palimaru, Sarah Weilant, Ashley L. Rhoades, Liisa Hiatt
The 135 page report can be downloaded here.
14. Analysis: How Russian hackers were able to access DHS secretary’s email
wtop.com · by J.J. Green · March 29, 2021
Excerpts: “The problem, according to the source, is that top nation-state hackers, such as Russia and China, never reuse those IP addresses — thus, they circumvent the system designed to detect them.
The DHS spokesperson said, “As we consider lessons learned, we have identified a number of steps we must take to modernize federal cybersecurity defenses and build back better. We have shared these lessons learned with the White House and other agencies, so that they can be fully integrated into cybersecurity modernization efforts.”
The Einstein system cost approximately $5.7 billion, but according to some national security sources, it was never intended to do what some expect it do, all by itself.
It is supposed to work with components deployed by other U.S. national security agencies.
However, there are concerns that some of those agencies may not want to expose what they know about certain cyber threats because then the actors behind them might disappear, eliminating their ability to be tracked.
15. What Is DevSecOps, Anyway?
defenseone.com · by Gerry Morelli
Excerpts: “By replacing a waterfall culture with a DevSecOps culture, the Air Force’s CVA/H DANS effort combined three independent contracts—feature development, product delivery, and sustaining fielded systems—and merged them into one unified work structure. The program, which had released just two new versions in three years of waterfall operations, released four versions in its first year as a DevSecOps effort.
All in all, this experience reminded us of a simple, but important point: just calling a program Agile doesn’t make it Agile, but when it’s done right, Agile paired with DevSecOps gets the job done in some pretty impressive ways.”
16. Let’s Get Real About US Military ‘Dominance’
defenseone.com · by Collin Meisel
Actually I am not sure this is really the case. I think most military planners are worst case planners and do not assume that we are superior in every case. This is why the military continues to try to pursue new capabilities and concepts because there is the belief that our adversaries will develop counters or new capabilities of their own. Despite all the rhetoric in the media, I do not think our military leadership assumes our superiority and certainly not across the board.
17. America Is Four Years Away From Being Outmatched By China
The National Interest · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · April 2, 2021
Conclusion: “The Indo-Pacific is vitally important to the US, both in terms of the economy and national security. Currently, the region accounts for 60 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, and if current rates of economic and population growth continue, by 2031, the region will contain 2/3 of the world’s economy and population.
China might be the biggest threat to US national security but it’s also the largest opportunity. Conflict with Beijing isn’t predestined nor necessary. However, a potent US military and strong regional and global partnerships are crucial in deterring China.
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When (John F.) Kennedy became president, the Special Forces numbered about 2,000 and had as their primary mission the organization of guerrilla units behind enemy lines during conventional war. BY the late 1950s, the Special Forces mission had begun to take on certain features of counterinsurgency. Kennedy accelerated this transformation, upgraded the Special Warfare Headquarters at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, to the Special Warfare Center under a brigadier general, authorized the wearing of the green beret, and increased Special Forces strength to about 12,000 by 1963. He also insisted that Green Berets be trained not only in counterguerrilla operations but in civic action, engineering, communication, sanitation, medicine, and a variety of other skills that would win the allegiance of the people in countries requiring Special Forces assistance. The president pushed through these measures over the objectives of many U.S. officers who found elite units distasteful and who believed any well-trained soldier could perform the unconventional tasks assigned the Green Berets.
- Lawrence W. Yates
"History is like philosophy teaching by examples."
- Dionysius
"If every prospective writer on international affairs in the last twenty years had taken a compulsory course in elementary strategy, reams of nonsense would have remained unwritten."
- E.H. Carr, The Twenty Year Crisis, 111.
