https://ctc.usma.edu/march-2021/
Articles:
By Brian Michael Jenkins
By Thomas Ruttig
By Douglas Weeks
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Intersectional imperialism: A wholesome menace
2. H.R. McMaster: Afghanistan is America's longest war – it's time for the delusion about it to end
3. Here’s what to expect in Taiwan’s new defense review
4. A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight
5. Who are the winners and losers in Britain’s new defense review?
6. 9/11 Was a Wake-Up Call. America Is Still Snoozing After the Capitol Assault.
7. Eric Greitens announces he's running for US Senate in Missouri
8. Top U.S. General In Afghanistan Is Carrying A Heavily-Modified Glock With A Compensator Attached
9. Top Armed Services Republican backs National Guard quick reaction force for DC
10. FDD | What’s Behind China’s Dangerous Incursion into the East China Sea
11. Covert Action, Espionage, and the Intelligence Contest in Cyberspace
12. $88 billion and 20 years later, the Afghan security forces are still no match for the Taliban
13. Shared Burden Of A New Vision For The Asia Pacific - Analysis
14. Meet the Russian 'Information Warrior' Seeking To Discredit COVID-19 Vaccines
15. Hard power or soft power? Quad opts for ‘smart’ power
16. Ethnic armies rescue Myanmar’s democratic forces
17. Time for US, Japan to muscle up their alliance
18. Niall Ferguson - A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire
19. Biden Cabinet near complete but hundreds of jobs still open
1. Intersectional imperialism: A wholesome menace
realalexrubi.substack.com · by Alex Rubinstein · March 22, 2021
This is most excellent propaganda from Russia Today. (note snark). It has a little bit of everything wrapped into this.
Please go to the link for better formatting and to view the graphics.
Note the 2008 excerpt from the US Army manual on unconventional warfare (in the section on "finance feminism").
But the target of this propaganda is so obvious I am sure we will see its themes and messages repeated among certain segments of the political spectrum.
Just consider the section headings alone:
The Noble Anti-Triggering Organization (NATO)
The State Department Becomes an HR Department
The DoD Seeks 'Force Multipliers'
The Central Idpol Agency
Finance Feminism
Wokeism Goes Global
2. H.R. McMaster: Afghanistan is America's longest war – it's time for the delusion about it to end
foxnews.com · by H. R. McMaster
Note the "four realities" in which strategy should be grounded.
Conclusion: “If the Biden administration abandons the weak agreement that the Taliban have already broken, it is possible to reverse a self-defeating strategy and sustain a long-term effort at a cost acceptable to the American people.
Because war remains a contest of wills, achieving peace in Afghanistan will require the Afghan government and security forces to convince reconcilable elements of the Taliban that they cannot prevail through the use of force.
Sustainable, long-term military and diplomatic support for the Afghan government and security forces is essential to achieving that outcome.
It would be almost two decades late, but it is past time to end America’s self-delusion in Afghanistan.”
3. Here’s what to expect in Taiwan’s new defense review
Defense News · by Mike Yeo · March 22, 2021
Key point: "Taiwan plans to shift its focus from being able to destroy enemy forces landing on its beaches, and instead adopt an asymmetric force structure that can annihilate an enemy at sea prior to making landfall."
I would argue Taiwan also needs an internal civilian based and SOF supported "resistance operating concept" to contribute to non conventional deterrence first and if an invasion does occur to provide defense in depth if the asymmetric approach to annihilating an enemy at sea prior to making landfall fails or less than completely effective."
4. A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight
Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou
Hmmm....
A historic exercise shows how Navy SEALs will keep aircraft carriers in a high-end fight
5. Who are the winners and losers in Britain’s new defense review?
Defense News · by Andrew Chuter · March 22, 2021
Note my chuckle here. A new ranger regiment modeled on the "US Army's Green Beret Forces." Oh the heresy of mixing "rangers and Green Berets!" But it will be really confusing when we have Brit Rangers operating side by side Green Berets.
One area that could strengthen ties between the U.S. and U.K., he noted, is the creation of a new British Army ranger regiment, one modeled on the U.S. Army’s Green Beret forces.
The review plans for £120 million in investments over the next four years to equip that force, the start of which Heappey said should be “up and running” by Christmas.
The new unit “doesn’t just do training and advising of partner nations forces, but actually goes and trains, advises, assists and then accompanies them into non-permissive environments, which is exactly what the Green Berets are,” Heappey said. “It’s pretty likely that we’ll find Green Berets and Rangers working alongside each other in the same environments. Sub-Saharan Africa feels like the growing market. But actually there’s still plenty to be done in places like Iraq and Afghanistan as well.”
There is some real irony here. We designed our national mission force (Delta) on the British SAS to include using similar terminology and naming conventions as well as organizational and employment concepts. Now the UK has recognized the need for a force more suited for advising and assisting and supporting indigenous forces so they are borrowing from our examples.
What this confirms for me is the Brits recognize the importance of the SOF trinities:
The Comparative advantage of SOF:
With exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions
6. 9/11 Was a Wake-Up Call. America Is Still Snoozing After the Capitol Assault.
Foreign Policy · by Elise Labott · March 22, 2021
Excerpts: “Ultimately, a long-term approach to reducing homegrown extremism must go beyond law enforcement to unpack just how and why many people find these ideologies appealing—and how they can be deradicalized. For a time, many believed that Trump-style nationalist populism was about economic anxiety—which, if true, would be something the government could address through new industrial and trade policies to buoy those left behind by globalization.
But the melange of extremist factions from across the country uniting under a rubric of hatred suggests that their anger stems from something else, such as fear of losing their identity in a country whose demographics are inexorably changing—not something the government can fix with a few tariffs.
The Capitol riot laid bare the dangers of ignoring the growing domestic extremist threat, now emanating from a tangled web of individuals, groups, and ideologies. But it was not an isolated event. FBI Director Wray said the bureau is currently working on upward of 2,000 domestic terrorism investigations. Without a national reckoning about what is happening in the country—and a genuinely bipartisan effort to counter the challenge, like the one seen after 9/11—Jan. 6 may go down in history as the point of no return.
7. Eric Greitens announces he's running for US Senate in Missouri
kmbc.com · by KMBC 9 News Staff · March 23, 2021
8. Top U.S. General In Afghanistan Is Carrying A Heavily-Modified Glock With A Compensator Attached
thedrive.com · by Tyler Rogoway · March 22, 2021
Ah yes...the important things to report on - the General's sidearm.
9. Top Armed Services Republican backs National Guard quick reaction force for DC
The Hill · by Rebecca Kheel · March 22, 2021
But what would be the chain of command? Who would have the employment decision making authority?
10. FDD | What’s Behind China’s Dangerous Incursion into the East China Sea
fdd.org · by Thomas Joscelyn · March 19, 2021
Excerpts:
“China’s position on issues relating to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Xinjiang, the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Island is consistent and clear,” Zhao said. (Diaoyu is the Chinese name for the Senkaku Islands.) “Our resolution and will to defend national sovereignty, security and development interests is rock solid,” he added.
In no uncertain terms, Zhao claimed that “China’s sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea and the adjacent waters, the Diaoyu Island and its affiliated islands is indisputable.”
In other words, the CCP isn’t backing down from its claim over the Senkaku Islands anytime soon.
11. Covert Action, Espionage, and the Intelligence Contest in Cyberspace
warontherocks.com · by Michael Poznansky · March 23, 2021
Conclusion: “Cyberspace may be an intelligence contest among rivals, but all intelligence operations are not created equal. While cyber-enabled espionage and covert cyber operations both qualify as intelligence activities given their reliance on secrecy, and are therefore distinct from conventional warfare or diplomacy, they are also distinct in key ways from one another. Failing to appreciate these differences impedes our ability to understand the richness of cyber operations, underlying motivations, the prospect for signaling, and metrics of success.
Going forward, appreciating this nuance will be important for several reasons. First, as U.S. Cyber Command enters its second decade of existence, having a clear sense of how to think about the variety of operations in cyberspace is critical. In many cases, cyber activity approximates an intelligence contest in which states jockey for information and influence. While it is not always easy to tell which is which, it is imperative to try. Second, assessing the wisdom of the previous administration’s decision to give Cyber Command more latitude in conducting operations — which the Biden administration has purportedly left in place — requires clear metrics of what has worked and what has not. Covert cyber operations may provide a more useful benchmark than espionage operations.
12. $88 billion and 20 years later, the Afghan security forces are still no match for the Taliban
taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · March 22, 2021
John Sopko has been providing the most thorough and critical analysis of the Afghan War.
This is the key excerpt:
“Task & Purpose asked Sopko why the Afghan security forces are still so reliant on the United States and NATO nearly 20 years after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
There isn’t a simple or easy answer, he said.
“Based on all the work we’ve done, it seems obvious that the biggest mistake we’ve made was to try to build an Afghan Army in our own image and likeness,” Sopko said. “In other words, an Army that uses the systems and the equipment and the weapons that our army does. And yet, this is a country where a huge portion of the population are illiterate, where there’s very little electricity, and very little internet.”
This is why I focus on this fourth point in my Eight Points of Irregular Warfare:
“ 4. Assessment - must conduct continuous assessment to gain understanding - tactical, operational, and strategic. Assessments are key to developing strategy and campaign plans and anticipating potential conflict. Assessments allow you to challenge assumptions and determine if a rebalance of, ways and means with the acceptable, durable, political arrangement is required. Understand the indigenous way of war and adapt to it. Do not force the US way of war upon indigenous forces if is counter to their history, customs, traditions, and abilities.
13. Shared Burden Of A New Vision For The Asia Pacific - Analysis
eurasiareview.com · by Nick Bisley Forum · March 23, 2021
Conclusion: “Strategic competition with China over Asia’s order will be the dominant feature of the coming years. While that competition is likely to be better managed under Biden, a region dominated by competing great powers is a dangerous one indeed.”
14. Meet the Russian 'Information Warrior' Seeking To Discredit COVID-19 Vaccines
Who needs the Russians? We have Americans who are trying to discredit the vaccines.
15. Hard power or soft power? Quad opts for ‘smart’ power
asiatimes.com · by Danil Bochkov · March 23, 2021
Conclusion:
“By juggling soft- and hard-power instruments, Biden seems to be pursuing what Joseph Nye once called “smart power” – an adroit combination of a strong military while investing heavily in alliances, partnerships and institutions.
The long list of initiatives following the March 12 meeting signifies that this strategy might be successful. That will become clearer by the time the next summit takes place.”
16. Ethnic armies rescue Myanmar’s democratic forces
asiatimes.com · by David Scott Mathieson · March 22, 2021
Maps/graphics at the link. We have a number of Americans and American organizations supporting these ethnic armies. Pilot teams are in place in case any national leaders decide we need to come to support those who seek to remain free.
17. Time for US, Japan to muscle up their alliance
asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · March 22, 2021
Conclusion:
“Japan and the Americans either must take some risks or the Chinese will swamp them. And at that point you either hand over the Senkakus or else fight for them. Neither option is a good one.
The Japan-United States 2+2 said all the right things – once again. But it will take more than that to deter the PRC.
Secretary of State Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan – both excellent debaters – should well understand this after the verbal hiding China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, gave them in Anchorage the other day.
Beijing seems ready to match actions to words. Is the same true for Washington and Tokyo?”
18. Niall Ferguson - A Taiwan Crisis May Mark the End of the American Empire
The fox and the hedgehog.
Conclusion: “The fox has had a good run. But the danger of foxy foreign policy is that you care about so many issues you risk losing focus. The hedgehog, by contrast, knows one big thing. That big thing may be that he who rules Taiwan rules the world.”
19. Biden Cabinet near complete but hundreds of jobs still open
AP · by Alexandra Jaffe · March 23, 2021
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"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance. Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth. Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us. For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."
- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD
Unconventional warfare needs to remain the heart and soul of U.S. Special Operations Command and component commands.
- Brandon Webb
If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
- Albert Einstein
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Xi, Kim share messages reaffirming China-N. Korea alliance
2. Cost-sharing deal to bolster alliance
3. ‘Seoul’s nuclear pursuit would harden NK’s atomic ambitions’
4. Quad not on table for Korea-India defense ministerial talks: Seoul
5. Is US pressure on China, North Korea leading to new cold war?
6. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korea amid signs rocket launchers being deployed to border islet
7. Spotlight on us (South Korea, human rights, and corruption)
8. Lavrov raps U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, 'bloc' building, ahead of Seoul visit
9. S. Korea not to co-sponsor this year's U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights
10. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know
11. Unification ministry reviewing ways to send food, fertilizer assistance to N. Korea
12. Harvard institute calls on journal to address ‘comfort women’ paper issues
13. EU Sanctions N.Korean Officials over Human Rights Abuses
14. For the first time, the Justice Department extradites a North Korean to stand trial in the U.S.
15. CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula: Recommendations for the U.S.-Korea Alliance
16. The South Korea-US 2+2 Talks: Who Came Out Ahead?
1. Xi, Kim share messages reaffirming China-N. Korea alliance
AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 23, 2021
And they remain closer than lips and teeth. And they have a common objective - both want unification of their countries! (the irony is north Korea prevented Chinese unification in 1950 when it first attempted to unify the Korean peninsula).
This is the only alliance these two countries have.
2. Cost-sharing deal to bolster alliance
The Korea Times · by Alex Soohoon Lee · March 23, 2021
Excerpts: “All in all, the 11th SMA, whether it is considered a success or a half-measure in terms of negotiations, is expected to restore the damaged alliance, putting it back on the right track. The two allies show one caveat after smoothly closing the SMA. The Biden administration may ask its allies, including South Korea, to join the U.S.' efforts to maintain peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.
There have been growing calls for Korea to join the informal Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, an anti-China coalition better known as the Quad comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia and India. However, Korea is reluctant to accept such calls.
At this critical juncture, Seoul and Washington will have to work together closely to iron out their differences to find a way forward.”
3. ‘Seoul’s nuclear pursuit would harden NK’s atomic ambitions’
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · March 23, 2021
Of course it would. But the purpose of Seoul acquiring nuclear weapons would not be with the intent to denuclearize. It would be because the regime has no intention of denuclearizing. That said I still believe as long as we sustain the alliance the ROK should not attempt to acquire nuclear weapons. I think it
4. Quad not on table for Korea-India defense ministerial talks: Seoul
The Korea Times · March 23, 2021
That answers my question from yesterday about the Quad on the agenda at the ROK-India defense meeting.
5. Is US pressure on China, North Korea leading to new cold war?
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · March 23, 2021
Why are we always to blame? What about the actions of China and north Korea (and Russia) leading to a new "cold war?"
6. S. Korea, U.S. closely watching N. Korea amid signs rocket launchers being deployed to border islet
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 23, 2021
Again we have to ask if the masters of deception are showing something they want us to see? What are we not seeing? What are they trying to hide from us?
7. Spotlight on us (South Korea, human rights, and corruption)
An Oped responding to the US State Department's report on human rights.
Conclusion: “Corruption and human rights restrictions in our society are more serious than thought. The recent inside-information real estate scandal shows the level of corruption among our civil servants — even as the country is led by a human rights-lawyer-turned-president. The government’s arrogance and self-satisfaction have played a big part in the degradation of the country. We hope the government turns the country into an advanced one in human rights.”
8. Lavrov raps U.S.' Indo-Pacific strategy, 'bloc' building, ahead of Seoul visit
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 23, 2021
Neither Russia nor China like our Indo-Pacific strategy. And both would like to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance (and others).
9. S. Korea not to co-sponsor this year's U.N. resolution on N.K. human rights
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 23, 2021
Not a good look President Moon. You must stand up for the human rights of the Korean people in the north (and then South).
10. North Korea’s Missiles and Nuclear Weapons: Everything You Need to Know
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
Well, maybe not everything. But this is a useful summary.
But not to worry. Many pundits say Kim has no intention of using them against the United States.
Excerpt: “What is President Biden’s stance on North Korea?
Mr. Biden has advocated mixing pressure with what he calls principled diplomacy. He has declared an end to holding summits without preconditions, which he said amounts to embracing a thug. Mr. Biden said he would sit down with Mr. Kim only if Pyongyang were sincere and pledged to reduce its nuclear arsenal.
In January, Mr. Kim called the U.S. his country’s biggest enemy. North Korean state media last mentioned Mr. Biden by name in 2019, when it called him a “fool of low I.Q.” and compared him to a rabid dog that “must be beaten to death.”
11. Unification ministry reviewing ways to send food, fertilizer assistance to N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 23, 2021
north Korea should want to receive assistance more than the South wants to provide it. Why is it so hard for the South to provide it? Because the north is not receptive. Think about that. Why have the rejected offers to help the Korean people in the north? The South may end up having to "bribe" the regime for it to accept aid. Think about the irony of that but that is of course part of Kim's long con and political warfare strategy.
Excerpt:
“The North has repeatedly rejected offers for help from South Korea to ease its food shortage amid chilled inter-Korean relations. Leader Kim Jong-un has also urged his officials not to receive outside aid, citing concerns over the spread of the coronavirus into the country.
Unification Minister Lee has told lawmakers that the North appears to be faced with a food shortage of about 1.2 million to 1.3 million tons this year mainly due to damage from last year's heavy downpours. South Korea has been exploring various ways to provide food and fertilizer to North Korea, according to his ministry.”
12. Harvard institute calls on journal to address ‘comfort women’ paper issues
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Michael Lee
I think it is difficult for Harvard to dig itself out of this hole.
13. EU Sanctions N.Korean Officials over Human Rights Abuses
There is more international support for human rights in north Korea than there is within the Moon administration.
14. For the first time, the Justice Department extradites a North Korean to stand trial in the U.S.
freekorea.us · by Joshua Stanton · March 23, 2021
Key point form Josh Stanton: "Mun undoubtedly knows many things about where Pyongyang hides his money, and his intelligence value could be inestimable. But the real impact of his extradition was to persuade Kim Jong-un that Malaysia was no longer a safe place for his agents, and to panic him into pulling his people out and cutting diplomatic relations. That will be a significant shock to Kim’s finances, because Malaysia was one of the largest hubs of North Korea’s money laundering operations."
15. CSIS Commission on the Korean Peninsula: Recommendations for the U.S.-Korea Alliance
csis.org · by John J. Hamre, Victor Cha, and Joseph Nye · March 22, 2021
The 31 page report can be downloaded here.
16. The South Korea-US 2+2 Talks: Who Came Out Ahead?
thediplomat.com · by Sukjoon Yoon · March 22, 2021
Alliance partners should not be "coming out ahead."
Excerpt:
“To summarize the outcome of these 2+2 talks, the United States sought to repair the strained alliance with South Korea after a similar, successful visit to Tokyo, but Seoul proved a much greater challenge. There were positive results for Washington: a less active pursuit of OPCON transfer by the Moon administration, the agreement on increased payments under the new SMA, and the prospect of buying more weapons and equipment from U.S. companies to operate the new ROK carrier. But there were negatives for the U.S. as well: South Korea declined to join the Quad Plus and signaled that military cooperation with Japan will not be harmonized anytime soon. Meanwhile, U.S.-ROK alliance is still centered on North Korea, rather than the much broader agenda that the United States desires.”
Spoiler alert: In conclusion, South Korea came out ahead at these talks, for the moment, anyway, with the United States largely unsatisfied. Even though the U.S. brought its big guns, Seoul held out for strategic autonomy, or at least strategic ambiguity, in dealing with North Korea and China. There may be no public disagreement revealed between the U.S. and the ROK, but the cracks will likely grow wider and deeper. The United States will surely be looking forward to the next ROK administration in 2022, and will be hoping for a conservative party victory.
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"Let us, on both sides, lay aside all arrogance. Let us not, on either side, claim that we have already discovered the truth. Let us seek it together as something which is known to neither of us. For only then may we seek the truth, lovingly and tranquilly, if there be no bold presumption that it is already discovered and possessed."
- Saint Augustine of Hippo, 354-430 AD
Unconventional warfare needs to remain the heart and soul of U.S. Special Operations Command and component commands.
- Brandon Webb
If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it well enough.
- Albert Einstein
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Daniel Riggs.
1. SAS shakeup: UK targets ‘hostile state actors’
2. South China Sea: alarm in Philippines as 200 Chinese vessels gather at disputed reef
3. The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other
4. The State of (Deterrence by) Denial
5. Cyber attack tied to China boosts development bank's chief
6. Can the Quad Transform Into an Alliance to Contain China?
7. The War on Terror 20 Years on: Crossroads or Cul-De-Sac?
8. In Burma, ‘they have come for the poets’
9. The Real Reasons the U.S. Can’t Win Wars Anymore
10. Opinion | Biden’s global, muscular liberalism is an indefensible foreign policy in 2021
11. The Science of Making Americans Hurt Their Own Country
12. The U.S. Military Is Getting Ready to Fight A New Kind of War
13. A Fatal Error Inspired a Plan to Reduce Friendly Fire, but the Military Isn’t Interested
14. Criminals Use Covid-19 To Launch New Wave of Cyber Threats
15. Bathroom Politics: Male Special Forces Rebuff Unisex Restrooms to Keep Men-Only Status Quo, Study Finds
16. QAnon Supporter Crashed Army Reserve Base After Threatening to Unleash ‘Crazy Stupid’ Plan: Docs
17. Evidence in Capitol Attack Most Likely Supports Sedition Charges, Prosecutor Says
18. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 22, 2021 | SOF News
1. SAS shakeup: UK targets ‘hostile state actors’
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · March 21, 2021
In the immortal words of the SNL church lady, "Well isn't that special?"
Seriously (and snarky comments aside), this is quite a revamp of British special forces.
2. South China Sea: alarm in Philippines as 200 Chinese vessels gather at disputed reef
The Guardian · March 22, 2021
What do you do now Lieutenant???
3. The U.S. and China Finally Get Real With Each Other
The Atlantic · by Thomas Wright · March 21, 2021
I certainly hope Mr. Wright is right in the subtitle that Alaska was a necessary step to better relations, but...
But this is a troubling excerpt:
“The rules-based international order is now over. Beijing and Moscow concluded long ago that a world in which China and Russia generally acquiesced to U.S. leadership, as they did in the 1990s and 2000s, was untenable, a Western trap designed, in part, to undermine authoritarianism. They were not entirely wrong about that—many Americans saw globalization and multilateralism as having the desirable side effect of encouraging political liberalization around the world.
The truth is that the United States does pose a threat to the Chinese Communist Party’s interests (although not necessarily those of the Chinese people), while the CCP surely poses a threat to liberal democracy and U.S. interests. Ultimately, Washington and Beijing will have to acknowledge this to each other. That will be difficult for the Biden administration, which is accustomed to assuming that American interests are not a threat to any other government, but broadly benefit all major world powers. It will be even harder for Beijing, which goes to great lengths to conceal its revisionism behind a shield of insincere platitudes.
Such an acknowledgment will allow a truly frank strategic conversation to occur about how these two countries’ systems will relate to each other as they compete. These systems are incompatible in many respects, but they are also intertwined in a myriad of ways. The goals of U.S.-China diplomacy should initially be modest, to avoid unintentional provocations and to facilitate transactional cooperation on shared interests. Eventually, if China’s behavior and the geopolitical conditions are favorable, the two sides could explore broader cooperation and even the possibility of a détente—a general thawing of tensions—but that is a long way off.
Historically, the most volatile periods of rivalry between major powers is in the early stages; think of the late 1940s and the 1950s in the Cold War. The red lines become apparent only through interactions in crises. The greatest risk is for either side to miscalculate the resolve or intentions of the other. By getting real in Anchorage, both sides have taken the important first step toward a more stable relationship by acknowledging the true nature of their relationship.
4. The State of (Deterrence by) Denial
warontherocks.com · by Elbridge Colby and Walter Slocombe · March 22, 2021
Excerpts: ”In short, absent an effective American forward defense, China will be able to advantageously wield its military strength over key states in the region. Beijing need not necessarily actually launch such aggression. It could progressively use the perception of this capability to coerce and divide states in the region until any coalition to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific falls apart, leaving an Asia under China’s hegemony — with dire and very direct implications for Americans, who would then be subject to a far more powerful China that has clearly shown its willingness to coerce other countries and intervene in their internal affairs. Conversely, the most reliable form of deterrence would stem from the demonstrable capacity of the United States and its allies and partners to deny China the ability to subjugate one of them. In other words, the best deterrence in this situation is deterrence by denial, which essentially here requires an effective forward defense.
...
Indo-Pacific Command’s request is, of course, not gospel. Parts, perhaps important ones, may not be necessary or advisable — other measures may be more effective. Technology may offer ways to meet the requirements better than is possible with existing systems. And doing what is necessary will demand resources — whether from increases in overall defense resources or shifts of effort from other geographic theaters and missions, or some combination thereof. Nor should the request detract any support or focus from the need to make longer-term changes and investments to contend with China. Rather, it should serve as a near-term measure to enable an effective defense as the Defense Department more fundamentally overhauls the Joint Force.
But what is clear is that the United States — alongside its allies and partners’ own efforts — needs to spend money and bend metal to strengthen its forward defense alongside its confederates in the Western Pacific — and do it now. $4.6 billion now and $22.7 billion in the future is a lot of money — but it is a small part of the overall defense budget and roughly equivalent to what has been spent on the European Defense Initiative. More to the point, China just announced it was increasing its own defense spending by 6.6 percent this year. There will be no cheap way to meet this challenge — so hard choices in other theaters and for other requirements will be obligatory. But failing to do so will be the most expensive mistake of all.”
5. Cyber attack tied to China boosts development bank's chief
AP · by Joshua Goodman · March 22, 2021
Excerpts: “Claver-Carone, the former National Security Council’s senior director for Western Hemisphere affairs, chaired last week in Colombia his first annual meeting of the IDB since he was elected last fall over the objections of Democrats and some regional governments who complained he was breaking the longstanding tradition of a Latin American being at the helm.
A geopolitical ideologue, Claver-Carone seems in no rush to abandon his disdain for Beijing’s growing influence in Washington’s backyard. In sharp contrast to his predecessor, Luis Alberto Moreno of Colombia, who eagerly promoted Chinese investment in the region, Claver-Carone recently floated the possibility of inviting Taiwan, the island democracy claimed by the communist Beijing government as part of its territory.
In curtailing China’s influence, Claver-Carone is looking to curry favor with Democrats who question his leadership but share his mistrust of Beijing. If he succeeds, they can help him deliver on what was the main pledge of his unorthodox candidacy: U.S. support for a capital increase so the bank can help the region dig out from a pandemic-induced recession that’s the worst in more than a century.
6. Can the Quad Transform Into an Alliance to Contain China?
The National Interest · by James Holmes · March 21, 2021
Of course a first question is: can China be contained? Then, is containment our strategy? Is it the best strategy?
7. The War on Terror 20 Years on: Crossroads or Cul-De-Sac?
institute.global· by Bruce Hoffman · March 21, 2021
Conclusion: “Accordingly, absent this recognition, the American-led war on terror will remain stuck in the cul-de-sac it finds itself in today: inherently reactive rather than proactive – deprived of a capacity to recognise, much less anticipate, important changes in our enemies’ modi operandi, recruitment and targeting. Success in this war’s third decade will therefore depend on our ability to harness the technological mastery and overwhelming kinetic force of the US military as part of a more dedicated and comprehensive effort to better counter the ideology and narrative of our enemies and equip our regional and local friends and allies with the tools to also better resist these threats.”
8. In Burma, ‘they have come for the poets’
dallasnews.com · by Christopher Merrill · March 21, 2021
Excerpts: “One poet told me the Tatmadaw had tied Suu Kyi’s hands from the beginning of her rise to power, destroying any hope of a national reconciliation process — which is why she thinks civil war is looming. Another Burma watcher believes the Tatmadaw have miscalculated, arguing that their use of water cannons, stun guns, rubber bullets and snipers with live ammunition will only backfire, bringing yet more protesters into the streets. Of Maung Yu Py’s court case, a poet said, “If we win, he’ll be out. If not, we’ll be in.”
Their fate may depend on what steps are taken by the Biden administration to restore some semblance of democracy. The signal role played by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in bringing about change may offer a road map for American re-engagement in Myanmar/Burma — a country I can’t help thinking of as “Always Repairs.”
9. The Real Reasons the U.S. Can’t Win Wars Anymore
National Review Online · by Lawrence Korb · March 21, 2021
A follow-up to Bing West's recent essay.
Excerpts: “Korb - While I have some experience in each of these conflicts, having served in Vietnam and having visited Iraq three times and Afghanistan once, it does not match that of Bing, who is one of the bravest people I have ever known. However, I still believe that he presents a sometimes incomplete and misleading picture of why we lost these three wars.
...
How bad will it be if we agree to leave on May 1, as Trump agreed to, and the Taliban takes over, especially for women? When I visited Afghanistan in 2011, I asked a Taliban official how they would treat women if or when they took over. He told me not to worry — that they would not treat them any worse than our allies, the Saudis.
Bing’s article should be read by all those who believe that the U.S. can develop and sustain democracies by using military power. However, they should keep in mind that there are some other factors that also play into this decision.
10. Opinion | Biden’s global, muscular liberalism is an indefensible foreign policy in 2021
The Washington Post · by Elbridge Colby · March 21, 2021
Conclusion: “For the first time in a long time, the United States is not overwhelmingly predominant. That means we cannot afford to be profligate with our power, wealth and resolve. Rather, we must manage the threats we face — above all China — in ways that promote U.S. power and well-being, rather than vainly expending them in a global ideological struggle or retreating in hopes that the world will favorably stabilize on its own. Such a course is the only option responsive to the needs and risk tolerances of the great bulk of Americans. It is thus the only responsible foreign policy for our democracy in this day and age.”
11. The Science of Making Americans Hurt Their Own Country
The Atlantic · by Anne Applebaum · March 19, 2021
We have met the enemy and he is us.
I hate to beat the dead horse: (From the 2017 NSS): "A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
12. The U.S. Military Is Getting Ready to Fight A New Kind of War
The National Interest · by Kris Osborn · March 21, 2021
New???
13. A Fatal Error Inspired a Plan to Reduce Friendly Fire, but the Military Isn’t Interested
texasmonthly.com · March 18, 2021
Excerpts: “Hayles sees a touch of destiny in his path: from waiting in the prisoners’ tent hours after firing the missiles that killed two Americans in 1991, to the years he spent refining his combat ID system, to reimagining how Flashlight could blossom into a new 5G project. If Hayles’s vision leads to a significant expansion in the nation’s 5G capability, it would be a technical triumph—and hugely enriching. “He’s not entirely altruistic in this,” a colleague observed. More than money, however, it seems that Hayles yearns for validation, a legacy defined not by his fatal mistake in the desert but by his breakthrough work since. For the man who was once Gunfighter Six, all the long nights spent obsessing over technical solutions to friendly fire, the tinkering with prototypes and recalculating of radio frequencies, the endless struggles with Army bureaucracy—all of it will feel justified if his 5G idea pays off.
But it’s not clear that Hayles and his new enterprise, the American Antenna Company, can squeeze into the mobile network business. For well over a year, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon have been adding to their 5G networks the same low-frequency spectrum that Hayles has championed. And the major telecoms are increasingly using antennas that can digitally steer multiple beams, which they say is an advantage over Hayles’s single-focus Luneburg lens model. Hayles’s concept is a good one, an outside expert said, but not good enough to convince the telecoms to set aside what they’ve already got.
But Hayles is undaunted. “With my antenna, I can get more distance and better performance,” he told me. “Sooner or later, somebody will screw up and start putting my antenna up, and all of a sudden, customers are happier and costs are less.” Hayles is convinced his network design simply outperforms the alternatives. And once that becomes apparent, he hopes, even the military will recognize the value of Flashlight.”
14. Criminals Use Covid-19 To Launch New Wave of Cyber Threats
thefintechtimes.com · by Francis Bignell · March 20, 2021
Criminals are exploiters and entrepreneurs.
15. Bathroom Politics: Male Special Forces Rebuff Unisex Restrooms to Keep Men-Only Status Quo, Study Finds
military.com · by Patricia Kime · March 21, 2021
Wow!
16. QAnon Supporter Crashed Army Reserve Base After Threatening to Unleash ‘Crazy Stupid’ Plan: Docs
The Daily Beast · March 20, 2021
More craziness from the QAnon cultists.
17. Evidence in Capitol Attack Most Likely Supports Sedition Charges, Prosecutor Says
The New York Times · by Katie Benner · March 21, 2021
Seems to meet the definition to me.
18. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 22, 2021 | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · March 22, 2021
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“A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, conn a ship, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve an equation, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.”
- Robert Heinlein
“In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery. This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists. Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK. Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas. It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers. DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world. Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea.”
- Adrian Buzo, Guerrilla Dynasty, p 27
“Inside, I’m assaulted by the evening propaganda broadcasts coming over the apartment’s hardwired loudspeaker. There’s one in every apartment and factory floor in Pyongyang”
- Adam Johnson, The Orphan Master's Son
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. ‘Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula’: Pyongyang’s trick language for keeping its nukes
2. 5 Takeaways From Investigating Covert Oil Deliveries to North Korea
3. South Korea Hints It May Strengthen Military Ties With Japan
4. U.S. Flags Human Rights Concerns in S.Korea
5. North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation
6. When I escaped to South Korea, I felt guilt
7. How Korea Bungled Coronavirus Vaccination
8. S. Korea to seek other ways to engage with N.K. as overseas spectators banned from Tokyo Olympics: ministry
10. State Department spotlights corruption, abuse in South
11. Moon's approval rating at all-time low of 34.1 pct: Realmeter
12. Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch
13. North Korean man extradited to US in sanctions case
14. (South Korean) Defense chief to visit UAE, India this week
15. Two border guards fled to China in January to find food
16. Here’s How America Can Strengthen Relations with Japan and South Korea
17. North Korea in Crisis: Food Shortages and Information Lockdown
18. S. Korea's observation satellite successfully launched into orbit
1. ‘Denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula’: Pyongyang’s trick language for keeping its nukes
AEI · by Nicholas Eberstadt
A critically important essay from Nick Eberstadt, one of the leading Korea watchers in the US.
Key excerpt: “Of course, it is not difficult to understand why some international actors are willing to play along with North Korean code language. Moscow and Beijing are delighted by the mischief it inevitably invites. The current leftist Blue House, as part of its dangerous double-game of balancing the neighbor that wants to destroy it against the ally committed to protecting it, pretends there is simply nothing to see here. At his joint press conference yesterday with Secretary Blinken, for example, ROK Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong — a North Korea expert, frequent flier to Pyongyang, and repeat interlocutor with Kim Jong Un — acted as if he had no idea this North Korean formulation even existed. But he and the rest of his government carefully parrot the North’s favored phrasing nonetheless.”
I actually think this public debate is a good thing because it allows us to both expose KJU’s strategy to dominate the peninsula by breaking the alliance (and how it has failed to live up to all the agreements calling for denuclearization) while at the same time exposing the appeasers, those who would endanger the ROK, or the ignorant. It is a pretty simple litmus test to determine who’s who: are you for denuclearization of the north or of the peninsula?
Dr Tara O shared this comment about Nick's essay. It is something we should really pay attention to: "Terminology Deception/Confusion Tactics (용어혼란전술) used by North Korea, more specifically used by the Workers' Party of Korea, Chinese Communist Party, Communist Party of the Soviet Union, etc." I would this is an important tool in the political warfare toolbox.
2. 5 Takeaways From Investigating Covert Oil Deliveries to North Korea
NY Times · by Stella Cooper, Christoph Koettl and Muyi Xiao
10 minute Video (which is very good) and other graphics are at the link.
This is very important reporting that illustrates the complexity of enforcing sanctions. Much more work needs to be done. Note the linkage to Taiwan, Hong Kong, the PRC, and Indonesia.
Here is the link to the 84 page RUSI and C4ADS report.
3. South Korea Hints It May Strengthen Military Ties With Japan
Bloomberg · by Jeong-Ho Lee and Jihye Lee · March 21, 2021
Could be a very good development.
4. U.S. Flags Human Rights Concerns in S.Korea
english.chosun.com · March 22, 2021
Another source of alliance friction that will increase if/when the US Congress holds hearings on the anti-leaflet law. Unfortunately for the ROK they just cannot justify the law from an international legal and human rights perspective.
Although counterintuitive perhaps, calling out our ally gives us more justification to focus on the real human rights abuser - the Kim family regime.
The way out of this alliance friction is for the ROK to repeal the anti-leaflet amendment and to participate in an aggressive alliance campaign for north Korean human rights.
5. North Korea’s new nuclear gambit and the fate of denuclearisation
eastasiaforum.org · by Evans Revere · March 22, 2021
Important conclusion from Evans Revere:
“It remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will take the bait and pursue an arms control approach with Pyongyang. If it does, President Joe Biden will no doubt assure us that he does not ‘accept’ North Korea’s nuclear program, but rather wants to limit it quantitatively and qualitatively. Such an argument ignores the fact that denuclearisation agreements in 1994, 2005 and 2007 failed to freeze the nuclear program because of Pyongyang’s evasiveness about monitoring and verification. As a fully-fledged nuclear power, North Korea will probably be even more reluctant to accept intrusive inspections today.
With the door to North Korea’s denuclearisation closing, Kim Jong-un believes he can shut it forever and open a new one that will lead the country to become a permanently nuclear-armed state. If the Biden administration decides to take the slippery slope leading to arms control talks with Pyongyang, it will find an eager ‘partner’ in Kim Jong-un.
But it is this excerpt that tells the complete story of the regime and its strategy. This should be no surprise to anyone who has studied north Korea's political warfare strategy but most turn a blind eye to this. It is from 2012.
‘If you remove the threat’, Ri said, ‘we will feel more secure, and in 10 or 20 years we will be able to consider denuclearisation’. ‘In the meantime,’ he declared, ‘we can sit down and engage in arms control talks as one nuclear power with another’.
And in the meantime we will execute our political warfare strategy based on the use of subversion, coercion, extortion, and force to unify Korea under northern domination to ensure regime survival.
6. When I escaped to South Korea, I felt guilt
The Korea Times · by Park Sung-ae · March 21, 2021
Note the discussion of unification.
7. How Korea Bungled Coronavirus Vaccination
Excerpt: “Korea was the 104th country in the world to start coronavirus vaccinations, around two months slower than the U.S. and U.K. and similar in pace to Southeast Asian and some African countries.”
8. S. Korea to seek other ways to engage with N.K. as overseas spectators banned from Tokyo Olympics: ministry
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · March 22, 2021
9. Unification minister renews support for private sector efforts to resume aid to N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 22, 2021
We should note the report that all UN personnel have withdrawn from Pyongyang. What makes any think private sector humanitarian assistance is going to be received by the regime? (unless it can be accompanied by massive under the table payoffs).
10. State Department spotlights corruption, abuse in South
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim
Our report is airing South Korea's dirty laundry - the article below summarizes the recent scandals. etc, of the South in recent years.
11. Moon's approval rating at all-time low of 34.1 pct: Realmeter
en.yna.co.kr c이치동 · March 22, 2021
But not unexpected for a South Korea lame duck president this far into the single term.
12. Moon's plan to revive peace initiative through Tokyo Games faces hitch
The Korea Times · March 22, 2021
No chance for a second meeting with the dragon lady, Kim Yo-jong, at an Olympic games. And it worked out so well the last time!!
13. North Korean man extradited to US in sanctions case
The Korea Times · March 22, 2021
Someone asked me my comments on this, e.g., how will this hurt the regime, how significant is the criminal, what does the US hope to gain? Here is my response:
Yes it is significant as you note simply because it is the first extradition of a north Korean who operates Kim Jong-un's illicit activities network. But it is bigger than that. This is a necessary action if we want to have a rules based international order. This person was breaking US and international law through money laundering activities (and probably more). Extradition is an important international legal and diplomatic tool. It is also significant because it is a direct action against north Korea's illicit activities network run by Office 39 which is directly responsible for raising hard currency for the royal court economy of Kim Jong-un.
I am not sure if the individual himself is significant, but his knowledge and links to the illicit activities network are certainly significant. I am sure the regime fears that he will be of great intelligence value to the US if he confesses and provides information as part of a possible plea deal. This may be what the regime fears most though they are obviously taking measures to minimize the damage. Cutting off relations may be a diplomatic signal to show displeasure with allowing the extradition but the real reason may be that their illicit business activities may be in jeopardy because of the extradition. There are hundreds of north Korean front companies in Malaysia (according to the research of Dr. Bruce Bechtol) most in partnership with Malaysian businesses. The regime may feel that it is necessary to cut its losses to protect it global illicit activities and network and mitigate the damage that will be done when Mun Choi Myong testifies or provides intelligence to US authorities. Protecting Office 39 and its illicit activities may be more important than the activities being conducted in Malaysia (although Malaysia was a very good location for the regime to do a lot of business).
The US hopes to gain information about the regime's illicit activities network. It hopes to send a message to the regime and all those conducting illicit activities in support of the regime that we can reach out and get you through international legal and diplomatic means. It will expose Kim Jong-un's global illicit activities operations to the outside world. It demonstrates the importance of the rules based international order and our willingness to reinforce it.
The regime loses all of the above, exposure, harm to its activities (loss of revenue) and reputation, and possibly losses of other bases of operations when other countries are no longer willing to turn a blind eye to its illicit activities. And most importantly by cutting off relations with Malaysia it is losing a one of its most important bases of operations for its illicit activities. The regime probably assesses it has to give up Malaysia in order to protect the rest of its network.
14. (South Korean) Defense chief to visit UAE, India this week
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 22, 2021
Good timing on the visit to Idia. Will India press the ROK on the Quad?
15. Two border guards fled to China in January to find food
dailynk.com · by Mun Dong Hui · March 22, 2021
Indications of the potential breakdown of the three chains of control and command systems (the traditional military chain, the political chain, and the security chain).
16. Here’s How America Can Strengthen Relations with Japan and South Korea
The National Interest · by Elliot Silverberg and Daniel Aum · March 21, 2021
Conclusion: No doubt these efforts will take considerable discipline and energy to implement. China necessarily gets a vote on the future evolution of the region, as Beijing will push back against any effort which it perceives as a move to contain it. Indeed, engaging China will be critical to the ultimate success of any North Korea policy. Despite potential opposition and the need to cooperate with Beijing where interests align, it is ultimately up to the United States and its allies not merely to counter risks and threats but to push forward a positive vision for the region. Re-energizing trilateral cooperation is undoubtedly an essential place to start.
17. North Korea in Crisis: Food Shortages and Information Lockdown
hrw.org · by Lina Yoon · March 16, 2021
The regime is exploiting COVID to further oppress the Korean people living in the north to sustain it in power.
18. S. Korea's observation satellite successfully launched into orbit
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · March 22, 2021
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Access it HERE
Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world. SOCOM’s diversity plan, Global SOF Symposium, international SOF, SOF history, commentary about special operations, upcoming events, books, podcasts, and videos.
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Japan, U.S. defense chiefs affirm cooperation over Taiwan emergency
2. GOP Hawks Warn against Repealing Iraq War Resolution ahead of Vote
3. The Clearest Sign the Pandemic Could Get Worse
4. Facing vaccine skepticism, one corner of the Army is trying something new
5. Looking for a Non-Kinetic Win? Invest in a Public Affairs Paradigm Shift
6. Opinion | The Pentagon is using China as an excuse for huge new budgets
7. In Syria, US Commanders Hold the Line — and Wait for Biden
8. Opinion | Asian-Americans Are Scared for a Reason
9. Duterte 'happy' to go to jail for killing human rights activists
10. Soldier Fights for Her Life to Serve in US Army
11. The Politics Behind China's Belt and Road Initiative
12. State’s Influence on Foreign Policy: Is This Really as Good as It Gets?
13. The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs
14. Biden's grand strategy for U.S.-China contested islands
15. Iran threatens US Army base and top general
16. Sparks Fly In The Alaska Snow - OpEd
17. Your Addiction to Outrage is Ruining Your Life
18. Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the World
1. Japan, U.S. defense chiefs affirm cooperation over Taiwan emergency
asia.nikkei.com · March 21, 2021
Excerpt: “Tokyo has been reviewing the feasibility of issuing an SDF dispatch order to protect U.S. warships and military planes in case of a crisis between China and Taiwan given the strait's geographical proximity and the possibility of an armed conflict there affecting the safety of Japanese citizens.”
2. GOP Hawks Warn against Repealing Iraq War Resolution ahead of Vote
National Review Online · by Jimmy Quinn · March 20, 2021
I think there are big differences between the 2001 and 2002 AUMFs.
I wonder how far Congress is willing to go on this?
Conclusion:” If one thing is clear, though, it’s that Congress, which once laid dormant as the executive’s war powers ballooned, has entered a period of heightened interested in war powers reform — and this time, it might result in some concrete changes.”
3. The Clearest Sign the Pandemic Could Get Worse
defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project
Conclusion: In months past, we might have been able to make educated guesses about what might happen next as the situation worsens in Detroit: We would expect to see cases and hospitalizations increase statewide and also rise elsewhere in the region, as when the Dakotas and Wisconsin acted as sentinels for the deadly third surge of cases over the winter. We would also have seen deaths soar several weeks after cases rose, especially within nursing homes. But Michigan’s surge arrives in a national landscape altered by new viral variants and more than 100 million immune systems strengthened by vaccination. We anticipate that state and federal vaccination efforts will increase in and around Detroit—and across the country—fast enough to prevent a regional or national reversal of our hard-won progress. What the numbers incontrovertibly show, however, is that we’re not going to see COVID-19 immediately disappear. As public-health experts have suggested for months, there will be continuing outbreaks this spring—likely as a result of B.1.1.7 becoming the dominant virus. Now the question is how bad they’ll get and how far they’ll spread.
4. Facing vaccine skepticism, one corner of the Army is trying something new
The Washington Post ·by Alex Horton · March 19, 2021
This is what leadership is all about. I hope it will increase the number of military personnel who will get vaccinated.
5. Looking for a Non-Kinetic Win? Invest in a Public Affairs Paradigm Shift
cimsec.org · by Matthew Stroup · March 20, 2021
The best PAOs I have known and served with (just like the best IO and PSYOP personnel) were strategic thinkers. They have to have a broad understanding of strategy and operational art. It is not just about being able to engage with the media. It is about helping to tell the right stories about our military operations and how they support our national security.
It is interesting how the author brings in Peter Singer's work to this essay.
6. Opinion | The Pentagon is using China as an excuse for huge new budgets
The Washington Post · by Fareed Zakaria · March 18, 2021
These number comparisons are always suspect.
But I do like this except: And the United States deploys this power using a vast network of some 800 overseas bases. China has three. China’s defense budget is around $200 billion, not even a third as large as that of the United States. Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution notes that “if China were in NATO, we would berate it for inadequate burden-sharing, since its military outlays fall well below NATO’s 2 percent minimum.”
7. In Syria, US Commanders Hold the Line — and Wait for Biden
defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams · March 18, 2021
Excerpts:
“Senior leaders and service members alike say the relationship with the SDF, damaged when Trump withdrew U.S. troops in advance of the Turkish incursion, has recovered. There are SDF fighters on every patrol, although they ride in their own pickup trucks and it is the Americans that lead the engagement in Hemzebeg.
We lost some places because of you, Stone is told by the villagers. But Erdogan is the real threat, the men say, and we need you.
She is invited in for tea, but declines. If the convoy is to be back on the small, isolated base before dark, they must leave now. Another patrol will head out the next day.
“It's remained the same,” Calvert said, asked if he had received new guidance from Washington after Biden’s inauguration on Jan. 20. “The policies in Syria are still the same.”
8. Opinion | Asian-Americans Are Scared for a Reason
The New York Times · by the Editorial Board · March 18, 2021
9. Duterte 'happy' to go to jail for killing human rights activists
rappler.com · Pia Randa · March 18, 2021
Hard to comment on the craziness of Duterte.
10. Soldier Fights for Her Life to Serve in US Army
army.mil · by Liane Hatch · March 18, 2021
An incredible story of the journey of an American who became an American soldier. This is what makes America great always.
11. The Politics Behind China's Belt and Road Initiative
thewire.in · by Prem Shankar Jha
Good overview and background on One Belt One Road updated from last summer.
12. State’s Influence on Foreign Policy: Is This Really as Good as It Gets?
afsa.org · by Keith W. Mines
Excerpts:
“In the end, the system is ever in flux, and each change in administration presents new opportunities. There are immense challenges ahead for our country and for the Foreign Service, and there are those days when it might seem that the execution of policies more creative and politically connected individuals devise is more than sufficient. But the assessment that “many of the most serious challenges the United States will face in 2021 and beyond will require our diplomats to take the lead” causes the Belfer Center report authors to urge the president and Congress to “restore the State Department’s lead role in … foreign policy.”
They are mindful, as we all are, that exclusion of the organization that has had the most direct connection with the issues being decided—whose members meet frequently with the foreign minister, imbibe the smell of the foreign prison cell, drink tea with warlords and tepid bottles of Coke with gang leaders, observe the voting at the polling station, walk the factory floor—would be foolish.
There is a good amount of rebuilding to be done, and some risks to be taken; but, meanwhile, we should keep our dish right side up and grab the opportunities for greater policy influence as they come. As George Kennan put it: “If State doesn’t take the initiative, others will.”
13. The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs
ABC.net.au · by Stan Grant · March 20, 2021
Excerpts:
“For all America's economic and military might, it is a deeply damaged nation seeking to recapture its former glory in a world where it meets a rival of enormous and growing strength.
China remembers the Korean War while America tries to forget it. The ghosts of wars past are stirring again.
Yet there is another lesson of history: America helped open up China; its markets made China rich.
China even at its most bellicose and belligerent knows war with America would be catastrophic.
The two nations have been better as "friends" than "enemies".
The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs.”
14. Biden's grand strategy for U.S.-China contested islands
washingtontimes.com · by John Stilides
Excerpts:
“A Chinese military assault near the island chain’s shipping lanes could lead to a cutoff of Chinese maritime access to the Indian Ocean’s maritime superhighway, damaging its domestic economy and triggering massive anti-CCP social unrest. India needs credible national and allied naval counter-forces to anti-ship ballistic missiles based in western China to secure its regional interests and future defense capabilities with confidence.
Mr. Biden and other world leaders focused on the key geopolitical and geo-economic issues of the day need to keep sharp eyes on these island contests to prevent seemingly minor diplomatic disputes from escalating into major strategic crises.”
15. Iran threatens US Army base and top general
Daily Mail · by Associated Press · March 21, 2021
Now the recent request for increased security and control of boat traffic on the Potomac near Fort McNair makes sense.
But why are the Iranians focused on the Vice Chief of Staff of the Army???? (assuming the intelligence is accurate.
16. Sparks Fly In The Alaska Snow - OpEd
eurasiareview.com · by Andrew Hammond · March 21, 2021
Can there be any optimism?
Excerpts:
“Amid all the disagreements, what remains unclear is the degree to which the Biden team may seek to work with Beijing in areas where there are clearly defined common interests, such as climate change. Tackling global warming is a key political priority of both nations and there may be a window of opportunity for a US-China initiative in this area before the UK-hosted UN climate summit in November.
It is sometimes forgotten that a key precursor for the Paris deal in 2015 was a US-China agreement. So, with climate-skeptic Donald Trump out of the White House, this could become a rejuvenated topic of conversation for Beijing and Washington.
Another possible area of collaboration, building on the Stage 1 trade deal negotiated in 2018 and 2019, is the possibility of further economic agreements between the two. The scope for this is underlined by the fact that the Trump agreement covers few of the areas where China is often accused of misdemeanors, from currency manipulation to intellectual property theft.
If the two sides can find such areas of agreement, it will demonstrate that the direction of Washington’s relations with Beijing need not inevitably be a force for greater global tension. Moreover, this may even provide a pathway toward a deeper, strategic partnership that underpins relations in the post-pandemic era.
17. Your Addiction to Outrage is Ruining Your Life
Medium · by Pete Ross
This is an old essay but perhaps more relevant than ever with both extremes of the political spectrum focused on employing anger to further their agendas. I see so much anger on social media. It really is depressing. But I really do think many do find pleasure in their anger.
18. Rich Countries Signed Away a Chance to Vaccinate the World
The New York Times · by Selam Gebrekidan and Matt Apuzzo · March 21, 2021
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“When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind. When evil men shout ugly words of hatred, good men must commit themselves to the glories of love. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, good men must seek to bring into being a real order of justice.”
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
"I think the important thing about my appointment is not that I will decide cases as a woman, but that I am a woman who will get to decide cases."
- Sandra Day O'Connor
"Nothing is more false than the notion that the triumph of Communism is inevitable or that the Communists are steadily pushing the free world into a corner."
- Robert F. Kennedy
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Does North Korea Keep Lloyd Austin Up at Night?
2. North’s diplomats expelled from Malaysia
3. Washington stresses Seoul’s ‘input’ in NK policy review
4. [Contribution] The Korea-US alliance: A bona fide comprehensive partnership (from South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister)
5. Uncertain future ahead for US-North Korea dialogue
6. North Korean defectors talk about escape, new life in South in English
7. 'I Am the Man' (Korea and refugees and academics)
8. Costa Rica aims to become the Korea of South America
9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks
10. North Korean move a decade in the making (Malaysia)
1. Does North Korea Keep Lloyd Austin Up at Night?
The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 20, 2021
So much to address in this address essay but I will focus on this excerpt:
“Of course, America’s vast arsenal ensures that North Korea will not sua sponte initiate a nuclear exchange—Kim Jong-un is not suicidal and has demonstrated no desire to die in a radioactive funeral pyre in Pyongyang. Indeed, the North never had any interest in attacking the United States. The ruling Kims simply wanted the United States to stay out of any new round in what amounts to a continuing Korean civil war.”
First, while I cannot prove Kim has any interest in attacking north Korea, I do not think the author can make the definitive statement that the north never had any interest in attacking the north. It is dangerous to build a national security strategy on the assumption the enemy will not attack (Sun Tzu said, "Never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible"). The author goes on to argue about trading a US city for Seoul and implicitly provides his basic thesis that we should simply abandon South Korea because of the second part of the excerpt above - renewed hostilities would simply be a resumption of the Korean Civil War that began in June 1059 (or perhaps 1948 or even 1945. I agree with the author that the situation on the Korean peninsula is a civil war and that the UN Security Council recognized that its resolution 82-85 when it identified the north as the hostile aggressor and called on member states to come to the aid of South Korea to maintain its freedom. That remains the fundamental conflict - the authoritarian, totalitarian family dynastic dictatorship of the north against the free and democratic South. This is why Para 60 of the 1953 Armistice is so important. We must find a solution to the "Korea question," the unnatural division of the peninsula. The bottomline is the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
2. North’s diplomats expelled from Malaysia
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim
I wonder what is going to happen to all the Malaysia-north Korean joint venture businesses (with Office 39 of north Korea)
3. Washington stresses Seoul’s ‘input’ in NK policy review
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · March 19, 2021
This is key to a strong alliance partnership. But differences in views and input will need to be resolved, the most difficult one is ensuring sufficient alignment of strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
4. [Contribution] The Korea-US alliance: A bona fide comprehensive partnership
koreaherald.com · by Choi Jong Kun · March 18, 2021
I wonder if this was published in the Korean language for the Korean public.
No specific mention of north Korea and its threats to the South, the region, and the US except for the allusion to the peace process that the Moon administration desires.
5. Uncertain future ahead for US-North Korea dialogue
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · March 21, 2021
It is only uncertain because Kim Jong-un is executing a political warfare strategy and is currently refusing to engage. I am sure Kim is trying to shape the environment to try to create the conditions so that the only way for there to be talks is if the US agrees to lift sanctions. The US should not give concessions solely for the possibility of having talks. The US and the ROK/US alliance need to execute a superior form of political warfare to successfully compete with north Korea.
6. North Korean defectors talk about escape, new life in South in English
The Korea Times · March 21, 2021
Excerpts:
"I believed the threat of crocodiles, I had even come to believe that I had seen them. I had been delivering these fabricated memories to many people," Pak said, concluding the speech by challenging audience members to think about myths that they might believe are true.
The first prize winner, who identified herself as Gloria, was repatriated back to North Korea twice before she settled in South Korea in 2007. She gave an inspiring speech on how she overcame hardships as a disabled woman who defected from North Korea.
The second prize went to a man who wished to be known as Dave, who entertained the audience with anecdotes about traveling to more than 50 countries since 2015.
Prior to the contest, the refugees were invited to apply through a meeting with FSI co-founders Lartigue and Lee, and then they submitted a draft of their speeches in either Korean or English.”
7. 'I Am the Man' (Korea and refugees and academics)
The Korea Times · Casey Lartigue Jr. · March 18, 2021
An interesting perspective on academics and think tanks.
Excerpts:
“My education about academics began in 2002 when I was working as an education policy analyst at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C. I had noticed that university professors were declining my invitation to speak at a conference I was organizing to mark the 50th anniversary of the Brown v. Board of Education ruling.
Finally, one professor told me directly: Most university professors look down on think tank scholars, activists, and public speakers. Academics with long careers wouldn't respect that I suddenly appeared and seemed to be on TV a few minutes later.
Almost two decades later, I still believe his words, and see them as an explanation about the treatment of North Korean refugee speakers and authors in academic circles.”
8. Costa Rica aims to become the Korea of South America
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Esther Chung
But it cannot be like South Korea unless it is divided, fights a civil war and has an existential threat to its north.
Okay, my snarky comments aside, it is interesting that Costa Rica chose South Korea as a role model.
9. U.S. calls on China to play ‘critical’ role in nuke talks
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim
But what incentive does China have to cooperate on north Korea? What is the quid pro quo for Chinese cooperation?
10. North Korean move a decade in the making (Malaysia)
NST · by Shazelina Zainul Abidin · March 20, 2021
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“When evil men plot, good men must plan. When evil men burn and bomb, good men must build and bind. When evil men shout ugly words of hatred, good men must commit themselves to the glories of love. Where evil men would seek to perpetuate an unjust status quo, good men must seek to bring into being a real order of justice.”
- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
"I think the important thing about my appointment is not that I will decide cases as a woman, but that I am a woman who will get to decide cases."
- Sandra Day O'Connor
"Nothing is more false than the notion that the triumph of Communism is inevitable or that the Communists are steadily pushing the free world into a corner."
- Robert F.Kennedy
