Small Wars Journal

03/28/2021 News & Commentary – Korea

Sun, 03/28/2021 - 2:09pm

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

 

1. Biden’s Great North Korea Mistake: Pushing China to ‘Solve the Problem’

The National Interest · by Michael Rubin · March 25, 2021

I think the reaffirmation of the "closer than lips and teeth" PRC-DPRK alliance recently is intended to directly counter the line of effort that is likely being considered in the new Korea policy. China will not contribute to solving US and ROK security challenges.

And of course the subtitle is correct: there is not silver bullet in dealing with north Korea.

 

2. Analysis | North Korea conducted more missile tests. What happens next?

The Washington Post · by Patricia M. Kim · March 27, 2021

The three challenges:

  1. The U.S. and South Korea don’t fully agree on North Korea policy
  2. China and Russia are added complications
  3. The U.S. has few credible options left to coerce North Korea

A sobering conclusion: "These significant challenges to allied and regional coordination and the implementation of an effective North Korea policy suggest that the Biden administration and its counterparts are in for a difficult ride with Pyongyang — one that, barring a radical diplomatic intervention, will probably lead to a North Korea with greater nuclear and missile capabilities."

 

3. Biden can't afford to laugh-off Kim Jong Un's provocations

Business Insider · by Harry Kazianis

I recommend the administration attack the regime's strategy. Expose its long con, political warfare, and blackmail diplomacy. I don't think any substantive negotiations can occur as long as Kim Jong-un thinks his strategies will achieve success (as they have for seven decades). Until we show Kim his strategies do not work he will continue to follow his current and historical regime playbook. If we want to negotiate with Kim we have to force him to recognize that he cannot play his long con with us.

 

4. Joe Biden and North Korea: A Crisis Coming Soon?

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · March 27, 2021

If there is a crisis it will be the result of Kim Jong-un decision making and not US action.

But this is quite an accusation against the President:

“After his press conference, we now know that President Biden is thinking about Korea. Despite his contrary claim, it almost certainly is not his top priority. However, the latest North Korean missile tests require the administration to think seriously about how to engage the DPRK. While denuclearization might remain the president’s top priority, it should not be his only priority. Much good could be done while taking even a lengthy path toward denuclearization that never reaches its official objective.

​I do agree that denuclearization should not be the President’s top priority. - The Top priority for the Biden and Moon administrations should be achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia. That begins with resolving the "Korea question."​

 

5. North Korea Doubles Down on Nuclear Weapons Plan After Biden’s Salvo

WSJ · by Andrew Jeong

This is such classic north Korean "diplomacy." It is deliberately stoking tensions as part of blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions.  The regime's actions and intent are so obvious. Why do we not call them out on it? We have to do so to make this strategy fail and force him to adopt a new one - ideally one that would be based on substantive working level negotiations and in accordance with the norms and standards of the international community. The only way north Korea can become a responsible member of the international community is by jettisoning its seven decades old strategy and concepts of operation. 

 

6. North Korea is installing concrete barriers and high-voltage wires along its border with China

dailynk.com · by Ha Yoon Ah · March 28, 2021

Just think this through. There is no doubt the regime fears the Korean people more than the US. Imagine how much electrical power it must take to keep this barrier electrified. Most of north Korea does not have 24 electrical power. Why are the Korean people suffering? Because of Kim Jong-un's deliberate policy choices.

 

7. North calls Biden criticism of missile test a 'provocation'

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Sarah Kim

Again, classic north Korea actions. But why don't the press and pundits take this to the logical conclusion and expose the regime's bankrupt strategy and how we are complicit in the success of its strategy by our actions or non-actions? And the most important action is to attack the regime's strategy.

 

8. Seoul repeatedly says ‘firing being analyzed’ after Pyongyang’s missile firing

donga.com · March 26, 2021

The Korean military and intelligence communities are in a tough position trying to toe the Moon administration's peace agenda line of effort.

 

9. Biden warns N. Korea, while Moon wants to “talk”

donga.com  · March 27, 2021

Probably the single most difficult friction point in the ROK/US alliance is the different strategic assumptions about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (apologies to the horse for beating it so much).

 

10. N.K. paper stresses local economy as 'cornerstone' of national development

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Yes but....

The only way for the local economy to work is to allow market activity but the regime is shutting that down.

 

11. Sinpho South Naval Shipyard: Drydock Movement Detected

38north.org · by Jack Liu · March 26, 2021

Hmmm.... a new submarine?

 

12. Which Korean military unit is the strongest?

koreaherald.com · by Lim Jang-won · March 24, 2021

Hmmm... should be entertaining especially for those of us who served with these soldiers and sailors. 

 

“One person with a belief is a social power equal to ninety-nine who have only interests."

- John Stuart Mill

 

 "What we do stems directly from what we believe."

- Millicent Fenwick

 

"A belief doesn't have to be true to be highly motivating, and it is one of the bitterest lessons of history that false or irrational beliefs are often the most powerful of all." 

-Dr. Mardy Grothe

Categories: News