News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Voice of America: [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”
2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions
3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea
4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis
5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea
6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea
7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris
8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US
9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?
10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention
11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate
1. Voice of America: [Washington Talk] “The Biden Administration… Commitment to 'Denuclearization of North Korea'”
VOA Korean
Young Gyo Kim hosts Bruce Bennett and me for this week's Washington Talk. As you listen to the comments please keep in mind the target audience for this VOA broadcast is the regime elite in Pyongyang, north Korea. Some of my more provocative comments did not make the cut (north Korea as a Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State and that Kim Jong-un prioritizes his nuclear weapons and military over the welfare of the Korean people in the north as well as Kim's attempt to make Biden's new Korea policy dead on arrival and my explanation of the recent comment training using the Baduk analogy.) But it is only a 20 minute show so not everything can make the cut yet we were still able to make some comments that should not be well received by Kim Jong-un.
2. Fear and Insecurity: Addressing North Korean Threat Perceptions
hudson.org · by Patrick M. Cronin
The 38 page report can be downloaded here:
Like Dr. Jung Pak (now Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific), I believe Kim fears the Korean people living in the north most of all, even more than the United States. I think we should bear that in mind as we read this excellent report from Patrick Cronin.
Key Excerpts:
“But humility is needed when it comes to separating North Korean fact from fiction. After all, North Korea appears as determined as ever to deploy and modernize a military arsenal that includes nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that can strike the United States. Accepting the new title of General Secretary, Kim Jong-un told the Eighth Party Congress in January that he planned to build both “small and light” and “super-large” nuclear weapons. Kim’s rationale for his nuclear program is undoubtedly to promote political objectives—such as preventing regime change from either within or without—so that he can unlock economic development and retain power for years. But just because Kim focuses on political goals doesn’t mean that he lacks grander military plans or other ambitions.
Even if the Kim regime were entirely transparent, it is not easy to view a traditional enemy without prejudice. Assessing an adversary requires overcoming cognitive bias based on emotion, entrenched views, and experience. Neither the Kim family and its cadre of elite advisors nor decision-makers within the United States and South Korea are impervious to the profound dynamics—political and psychological, explicit and implicit—that produce confirmation bias. Further, judging another actor’s threat perceptions requires possessing an objective sense of oneself—an elementary axiom of strategy. The requirement harkens back to the classical Chinese aphorism of Sun Tzu: “He who knows the enemy and himself will never in a hundred battles be at risk.”
3. Time For South Korea to Take the Lead on North Korea
19fortyfive.com · by Bonnie Kristian · March 19, 2021
This is an appeasement strategy - end exercises and lift sanctions in the hope it will bring Kim to the negotiating table with South Korea. Kim Jong-un could not have written a better essay to support his strategy to split the ROK/US alliance, and allow him coerce, extort, and use force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. I bet this essay would win an award in Pyongyang. The Propaganda and Agitation department might derive some talking points from this.
4. President Biden And The Making Of A New US Policy On North Korea - Analysis
eurasiareview.com · by Sandip Kumar Mishra · March 20, 2021
The author concludes with a seven point summary of some of the key issues.
Excerpt: “Fast forward to 2021. In another move, the Biden administration wants to bring in Quad countries into the process. North Korean denuclearisation is one of the five points in the joint statement released on 12 March following the first Quad Summit. Approaching the North Korean nuclear issue via Quad means that China’s cooperation may not be sought, or it could be considered marginal. It also suggests that that the US has changed its policy stand: from the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula—which was agreed to in the 2018 Singapore Summit—to denuclearisation only of North Korea. These changes could herald a widening gap between the US and South Korean approaches, with the President Moon Jae-in administration seeing China as critical to the process. Seoul is also prepared to denuclearise the peninsula if this covers North Korea in its ambit.”
5. UN says no international staff left in North Korea
AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · March 20, 2021
The hard target gets harder to assess. Another source of information dries up.
6. Blinken says U.S., China had 'candid' talks on N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021
But did it include yelling and shoe banging?
7. Sanctions relief not an option to bring N. Korea back to dialogue: Harris
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 20, 2021
I concur with Ambassador, Admiral Harris (he needs one more title with an A for some good alliteration - I suppose we could add Aviator since he is a Naval Aviator as well).
Excerpt:
“The former ambassador highlighted the importance of joint defense posture of South Korea and the U.S., arguing North Korea poses the most imminent threat to the U.S.
"I've said when I was PACOM commander, and I've said since then, that the biggest threat the United States faces, the most imminent threat, is the threat from North Korea," said Harris.
"It's okay to be optimistic about the future. It's even okay to be hopeful about the future. But as I've said before, hope is not a course of action when dealing with North Korea. So you need to have the fundamental military readiness to respond to those threats from North Korea," he added.
To this end, Harris welcomed the recent conclusion of negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. to renew their Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines Seoul's share of the cost in maintaining some 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea.”
8. Failure to mediate between allies will lead to indifference from US
donga.com· March 20, 2021
A critique of the 2+2 and the difference between joint statements and comments to the press. And a warning.
Conclusion: "Joint response by South Korea and the U.S. is desperately needed in such a sensitive situation where the U.S.-China conflicts are worsening and North Korea is plotting provocations. Therefore, North Korea policies to be revealed in the next few weeks need to be “fully-coordinated strategies” as pledged. If the next joint statement also states there is no major difference yet each country has different ideas in reality, South Korea and the U.S. will expose missteps in places, causing misjudgment by China and the North. Moreover, the worst case where the U.S. decides to sit back and the alliance malfunctions in crisis may not be a far-fetched scenario."
9. Why Is Gov't So Terrified of Kim Jong-un's Sister?
Because she is an evil woman.
10. Russia's role in Korean Peninsula draws attention
The Korea Times · March 20, 2021
Russia = spoiler?
11. Analysis: Denuclearisation of what? U.S. switch on North Korea wording raises debate
Reuters · by Josh Smith · March 18, 2021
As I have written I think this is a useful debate. I used to be a hardover on denuclearization of north Korea. But I'm willing to accept denuclearization of the entire Korean peninsula if we use that to call out the regime's strategy to break the alliance and dominate the peninsula as well as how the north has failed to live up to all the agreements that have signed that call for denuclearization of the peninsula. while at the same time the South has compiled.
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"To sin by silence when we should protest, Makes cowards out of men."
- Ella Wheeler Wilcox
"Silence becomes a kind of crime when it operates as a cover or an encouragement to the guilty."
-Thomas Paine
"There are times when you have to speak because silence is betrayal."
-Ursula K. Le Guin