News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. America's vaccine rollout has been among the best in the world

2. Are Confucius Institutes in the US Really Necessary?

3. Austin vows stronger action against sexual assault in the military

4. How to Spot 11 Types of Media Bias

5. COVID Conspiracy Disinformation Campaign Has Had Vast Reach, Study Finds

6. Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger details "grave misstep" in pandemic response

7. The Journalistic Tattletale and Censorship Industry Suffers Several Well-Deserved Blows

8. A Macedonian misinformation site dominated Parler before the Capitol riot

9. Four Taiwan ex-intelligence officers charged with spying for mainland China

10. Tom Cotton’s big plan to “beat China,” explained

11. Conspiracy theories — unmasked! From Winston Churchill to QAnon in a few easy steps

12. US Citizen Among the Advisers to Myanmar Military Regime Despite Sanctions Imposed by US

13. Philippines military keen to keep U.S. troop deal - minister

14. Somalia Is Headed Towards Another Tragic Collapse

15. The AI research paper was real. The “co-author” wasn’t

 

1. America's vaccine rollout has been among the best in the world

Axios · by Dave Lawler

At least as "compared to other wealthy countries."

A global map at the link: https://www.axios.com/vaccine-distribution-by-country-us-rollout-doses-9c47fa53-6a2e-4c56-8792-dd31bee34b10.html?

 

2. Are Confucius Institutes in the US Really Necessary?

thediplomat.com – by Gary Sands - February 20, 2021

I want Americans to learn Mandarin and to understand China (Although as an English major and political science minor, our daughter is in her third year of Mandarin language study but through the normal college language classes with no association to Confucius Institutes - although her university did consider partnering with Confucius institutes about 6 years ago but were concerned with Chinese influence on the curriculum.)  I just do not think we should "delegate" that responsibility to the Chinese Communist Party.

Excerpts:

There is nothing inherently wrong with the idea of a government-sponsored cultural institute assuming the important task of teaching the language, culture, and values of their nation to others (and there are many other examples: Alliance Francaise, American Centers, the British Council, the Goethe Institute, etc.). But should any institute censor certain information or distort history for geopolitical gain, host nations should either require changes or terminate their operation.

Any actions taken by the new Congress to further regulate Confucius Institutes will no doubt appeal to the two-thirds of U.S. voters holding a negative view of China. But the inherent difficulties in effectively regulating the remaining 75 Confucius Institutes and 500 Confucius classrooms argue for more funding for the NSEP and for the expansion of other home-grown, fact-based alternatives.

 

3. Austin vows stronger action against sexual assault in the military

The Washington Post · February 19, 2021

This scourge must be dealt with. The video is one of the most troubling I have seen recently.  I hope the SECDEF (and leaders at all levels) will make progress. 

 

One of the things I respect about the new SECDEF is his willingness to take things head on and how he has immediately (and I think correctly) handled this issue. Too often we have heard statements from senior leaders saying, "I have no knowledge of such a video." 

“You can look for us to take additional steps in looking in detail at ourselves and what has worked, what hasn’t worked and what measures we need to take going forward to ensure that we provide for a safe and secure and productive environment for our teammates,” Austin told reporters. “I think any other approach is, in my view, irresponsible.”

Austin also addressed a raw, emotional TikTok video that spread widely on social media on Thursday night after it was posted by Not In My Marine Corps, a group that advocates for survivors of sexual assault and harassment among service members.

...

Asked about the Marine’s remarks, Austin said: “I found the video deeply disturbing, and I’ve asked my staff for additional information, and I’ll leave it at that.”

...

Austin declined to say more about any action he might take in the case. “We want to make sure that, you know, I preserve my ability to adjudicate or take action or whatever needs to happen,” he said. “But the first thing’s first — we have to get the facts.”

He admits seeing, provides his human view of it yet ensures the press he must preserve his ability to adjudicate the issues as a member of the chain of command.

 

4. How to Spot 11 Types of Media Bias

https://www.allsides.com/media-bias/how-to-spot-types-of-media-bias

I like the web site AllSides.com. This is a handy guide that we should all refer to regularly.  A PDF of this can be downloaded here: https://www.allsides.com/sites/default/files/11%20Types%20of%20Media%20Bias-AllSides.pdf

 

5. COVID Conspiracy Disinformation Campaign Has Had Vast Reach, Study Finds

voanews.com · by VOA News

China doth protest too much. Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.  I am glad to know the Chinese will not spread conspiracy theories.

Excerpts:

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs told AP it resolutely opposes spreading conspiracy theories.

"We have not done it before and will not do it in the future," the ministry said in a statement. "False information is the common enemy of mankind, and China has always opposed the creation and spread of false information."

 

6. Former Trump deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger details "grave misstep" in pandemic response

CBS News · by Emily Tillett, Margaret Brennan · February 20, 2021

A fascinating interview excerpt with the former Deputy NSA.

Two important excerpts:

Pottinger turned to the government of Taiwan to secure a batch of masks that he distributed to White House medical staff and the national security team that reported to him. He said the remainder was donated to the national stockpile. The CDC did not issue formal guidance on mask wearing to the public until April.

...

Pottinger rang early alarms inside the Trump administration regarding the virus' potential ferocity and impact on the U.S. He said the information that he was receiving from making personal calls to doctors on the ground in China provided more accurate information than what was being shared by the Chinese government with their CDC counterparts.

Note the importance of personal relationships.  I think we forget that before Matt was a national security official and a Marine Captain, he was a journalist with the Wall Street Journal. He was probably doing what few national security officials could do based on his fluency in Mandarin and his likely contacts cultivated while he was a journalist.  In the era of fake news and the discrediting of journalists I think we should view this as an example of how important journalists and their skills can be to national security.  Of course, it would be better if people had paid more attention to Matt's warnings as they should to journalists' warnings.  Open source and all source information is vital to national security. 

 

7. The Journalistic Tattletale and Censorship Industry Suffers Several Well-Deserved Blows

greenwald.substack.com · by Glenn Greenwald

I admit that I have never liked Glenn Greenwald's agenda or his reporting. But lately he has been writing some pretty useful exposes.

 

8.  A Macedonian misinformation site dominated Parler before the Capitol riot

protocol.com · by Issie Lapowsky · February 17, 2021

Go figure:

According to the report, among the many misinformation sites that filled Parler before the Jan. 6 uprising, the site that appeared most frequently was American Conservatives Today, which launched just a month before the riot and appeared to be run out of Macedonia. It was linked to nearly 3,000 times in a single week.

Other sites that proliferated on Parler that week include a network of Islamophobic sites reportedly run out of Israel, a video site linked to InfoWars' Alex Jones and a QAnon conspiracy theory site. In addition to these peddlers of fake news, NewsGuard also found more than 1,000 links to weapon sales, prepper gear, nutritional supplements and other merchandise.

 

9. Four Taiwan ex-intelligence officers charged with spying for mainland China

View Original – by Agency France-Presse

So about 3 or 4 years ago I was in Taiwan participating in an Army asymmetric warfare conference. I was in a room with about a dozen Americans and about 100 Taiwanese army officers.  The Chief of Staff of the Army was giving his remarks. He told us one of the challenges for the Taiwan military was Chinese espionage against the active duty military as well as the exploitation of retired military officers who were not well compensated by the Taiwanese government in retirement. He said to this audience that he knew there were PRC spies in the very room in which he was speaking.

As part of the conference in one of the working groups we were asked to provide counterintelligence recommendations for the Chinese espionage threat.  Here is the summary of the proposal I outlined.  Since it was understood the military was penetrated they could take advantage of this by establishing a new program for retired military personnel. In simple terms if a retired military officer is approached by a Chinese recruiter he can immediately report it to the Taiwanese CI service. He will be allowed to be recruited and accept Chinese compensation.  However, he will also have such compensation matched by the Taiwanese government to work as a double agent and feed Taiwanese CI approved information to his Chinese handlers.  Because this program will be immediately exposed to the Chinese upon development and implementation through their already established network, it will likely fail.  However, the real purpose of the program is to make all retired Taiwanese officers of no more value to the Chinese since they will have to assume every one of them will act as a double agent and therefore cannot be trusted. Of course another course of action would be to sufficiently compensate retired military personnel in retirement.

 

10. Tom Cotton’s big plan to “beat China,” explained

Vox · by Alex Ward · February 19, 2021

The 84 page report can be downloaded here: https://www.cotton.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/210216_1700_China%20Report_FINAL.pdf

Excerpts:

The senator highlighted how the World Trade Organization has failed to rein in China’s economic malpractices on a large scale. That’s not to say the US shouldn’t try to reform that or other institutions.

But if China won’t play by the rules, or the group won’t hold China’s actions accountable, then he’d rather Washington leave and form new bodies. That way, the US “can ensure that international rules and standards are written to support emerging technologies where America is naturally suited to prevail.”

This stance is similar to Donald Trump’s, who as president also didn’t want to stay in international organizations he deemed friendly to China. President Joe Biden, meanwhile, thinks the US can only challenge Beijing if the US stays in such institutions.

Cotton’s other suggestions are essentially just restatements of proposals he espoused in the “how to decouple” section, namely government funding for research, development, and training in key industries. They underscore the senator’s central thesis that any moves to untangle US-China economic ties must feature corresponding actions to mitigate the resulting disruption.

For Wake Forest’s Benabdallah, that vision reflects the growing bipartisan consensus about America’s future economic ties with China. “This really puts into writing the view coming from DC that US-China relations are a zero-sum game,” she told me. “It’s very logical to say the US needs to do all this, but it’s another story when you see what that really means.”

Maine’s Vekasi echoed that sentiment: A lot of what Cotton said should be considered and thought about more deeply, especially the rare-earth materials part. But until it’s clear that unless the US can find less painful and cumbersome ways to sever economic relations with China, little of what the senator proposes will come true.

“It’s a pipe dream,” she said.

 

11. Conspiracy theories — unmasked! From Winston Churchill to QAnon in a few easy steps

Salon – by Paul Rosenberg - February 20, 2021

Yes this is from Salon for those who check sources and will disregard information based on the source.  But I would submit this is a fascinating interview and provides some very useful food for thought from a historical perspective.  I will look for the follow-on parts in this series.

 

12. US Citizen Among the Advisers to Myanmar Military Regime Despite Sanctions Imposed by US

irrawaddy.com – by Nyein Nyein - February 20, 2021

Unlike other Americans such as Dave Eubank and the Free Burma Rangers and Tim Heinneman and Worldwide Impact Now who continue to support the oppressed tribes of Burma.

 

13. Philippines military keen to keep U.S. troop deal - minister

news.yahoo.com – by Karen Lema

Yes I am sure he is.  It is only the president who wants to extort the US.

 

14. Somalia Is Headed Towards Another Tragic Collapse

19fortyfive.com · by Michael Rubin · February 19, 2021

Excerpt: Somalis are today putting their lives on the line for democracy. It is time to listen. If the international community remains deaf or arrogantly insists they know better, the result will be a disaster that will reverberate far beyond Somalia’s borders.

 

15. The AI research paper was real. The “co-author” wasn’t

Ars Technica · by Will Knight · February 21, 2021

 

 

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world”

- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

 

“Democracy not only requires equality but also an unshakable conviction in the value of each person, who is then equal”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Defectors to sue unification minister for alleged defamation

2. US generals war Seoul against rush to revamp joint command

3. A quiet North Korea

4. Rebuild the trilateral cooperation (ROK-Japan-US)

5. France sends frigate to East China Sea to join surveillance on North Korea

6. North Korea defections 'zero' as meth smuggling and Covid make it impossible to escape

7. North Korea’s economy is ravaged by sanctions and pandemic isolation. Kim is lashing out.

8. North Koreans piloted Bank of Valletta heist with Nigerian social media influencer

9. Ramseyer ‘comfort women’ paper challenged by historians

10. North Korea's nukes aren't going anywhere, and the US needs to get over it

11. ICAS Strategy poll - Moon's Peace Process Doomed To Fail The Security Of Korean Peninsula

12. Outcome of Korea-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Video Teleconference (Feb. 19)

13. South Korea’s prime minister has joined Clubhouse

14. Kimchi feud: Korea rallies support from foreign envoys

 

1. Defectors to sue unification minister for alleged defamation

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 21, 2021

An opportunity to demonstrate rule of law versus rule by law.

 

2. US generals war Seoul against rush to revamp joint command

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · February 21, 2021

There is only one general that has publicly stated this and that is General Bell who is the only retired GO named in the article. General Abrams' statement is consistent with the US position (and the position of military and national security professionals in both the ROK and the US): the conditions must be met to proceed with OPCON transition.

But this article perpetuates so many misconceptions about OPCON transition.

First OPCON transition does not necessarily mean withdrawal of the nuclear umbrella. 

Second, OPCON is not being transferred from Washington to Seoul.  The future ROK/US Combined Forces Command that is commanded by a ROK general officer will still report to the Military Committee just as the current ROK/US/CFC with a US general in command does. The US DOES NOT control the ROK/US CFC and the ROKG will not control the future ROK/US CFC when OPCON transition is complete.  It will be jointly controlled equally for each country through its representatives from their respective national command and military authorities on the Military Committee just as it is now.  This is why I think one of the most important conditions for OPCON transition is sufficient information being provided to the press, pundits, politicos, and public so there is a sufficient understanding of what OPCON transition means. The ROK/US Military Committee needs to direct the implementation of a comprehensive information campaign to inform and educate. Successful execution of this should be the fourth condition necessary for OPCON transition.

But I do not think this is ever going to happen.  US nuclear weapons will always remain under US control.  While consultation is of course appropriate I do not believe any foreign officer is going to be integrated into the nuclear use decision making process. 

The US should offer South Korea a major role in implementing the nuclear options if Seoul takes charge, Bennett added.

“I also believe that the conditions have not yet been met, and that the training on the employment nuclear weapons and integration of ROK personnel into this process is going to take some time.”

 

3. A quiet North Korea

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com – by Kim Pil-Kyu

South Korea is calling for the appointment of a US Special representative for north Korea. 

I have received a number of queries from the press about rumors the Biden administration does not intend to appoint a special representative for north Korea nor a special envoy for north Korean human rights. 

I think we have to be patient. I am confident that a special envoy for north Korean human rights will be appointed in due time.  The North Korea Human Rights Act of 2004 specified that “the President shall appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea within the Department of State.”  https://www.congress.gov/bill/108th-congress/house-bill/4011/text
I am confident the Biden administration will comply with the law.
There is no statutory requirement for a special representative for north Korea that I am aware of. It is possible the Biden administration will want to assign the responsibility to an existing State Department position such as the Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia Pacific.  Given the acting secretary Sung Kim's experience, if he is nominated for the permanent position he could perform the functions of the special envoy for north Korea.
However, what I think could be happening is that before any Korea specific appointments are made, the Biden administration will want to complete the policy review and develop the policy and strategy for the way forward.  In fact, I would think the possible appointees may actually be part of the policy review process.  I would try to determine who is conducting the review to discern who might be the possible nominees.

That said if the policy includes an arms control component the responsibility for that could fall to the arms control negotiations at State.

I also think the Kim family regime is not ready for engagement with the US given the current situation inside north Korea and the internal pressure on Kim Jong-un.  Paradoxically both Kim and Biden have to focus on domestic challenges in the near term.
The bottom line is I think we need to be patient and allow the policy review process to play out.  I strongly believe the Biden administration will comply with the law and at least appoint a special envoy for north Korean human rights.  If certain current State Department officials in existing positions have sufficient north Korean expertise they could be tasked with performing the duties of the special representative.  But again I think the administration will comply with the law and appoint a special envoy for human rights.

But the Joongang Ilbo editorial board is concerned about the lack of potential engagement between the north and the US:

It is concerning how long this uncomfortable silence will continue. If North Korea provokes, each side will have markedly less cards to play. Unless it is a top-down decision style of Trump, it would be harder to start the talks. North Korea would not want to waste the valuable time of the early days of a new administration in the U.S. That’s why we should care more about North Korea policy when Pyongyang is quiet.

 

4. Rebuild the trilateral cooperation (ROK-Japan-US)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

I am gratified to see the Korean media (some news outlets) advocate for better trilateral cooperation. To continue to beat the dead horse, I will again say there will be NO success on the Korean peninsula for any of the three nations without sufficient trilateral cooperation (and the stronger the better). 

I would push back slightly on the editorial board painting South Korea with a broad brush about neglecting the ROK/US alliance.  First, the professionals in MOFA and MND have not been neglecting the alliance. They have continued to do everything they can to sustain a strong alliance. Second, despite the anti-US sentiment within the extreme progressive wing of the ruling party, the Moon administration continues to invest heavily in both its own military and for sustaining the alliance.  I think that criticism detracts from the importance of this Oped in that trilateral cooperation is critical for the national security of all three nations.

 

5. France sends frigate to East China Sea to join surveillance on North Korea

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3122470/france-sends-frigate-east-china-sea-join-surveillance-north

This is a positive development. We need a strong international coalition to go after north Korean weapons proliferation as well as sanctions evasion activities (to include ship to ship transfers. Canada, Australia, the UK, Korea, and Japan are all contributing.  I know there is a joint (combined) operations center in Japan (that includes US, ROK, and Japanese naval officers and I assume our allied partners) that is focused on tracking north Korean malign maritime activity. 

 

6. North Korea defections 'zero' as meth smuggling and Covid make it impossible to escape

Mirror · by Chris White · February 20, 2021

An interesting assessment.

China is complicit in the human rights abuses of Koreans from the north.  We do need to put pressure on China.

 

7. North Korea’s economy is ravaged by sanctions and pandemic isolation. Kim is lashing out.

The Washington Post · February 20, 2021

The headline is not completely correct.  The north Korean economy is ravaged by the deliberate policy decisions made by Kim Jong-un in response to the natural disasters, COVID 19, and sanctions. He has the ability to fix the economy if he would make the right policy decisions.

Professor Lankov correctly illustrates Kim's "bankrupt" policy decisions here:

But Kim’s response to the crisis risks appears to be making the situation much worse.

Andrei Lankov, a Russian university professor based in Seoul, called it a “dramatic U-turn.” Kim has turned his back on even modest economic and market reforms and reverted back to de facto Leninism, emphasizing central planning while trying to clamp down on the private entrepreneurial activity that has become a mainstay of the country’s mixed economy, he said.

In speeches to the ruling party, Kim demanded the restoration and strengthening of the system under which the economy runs “under the unified guidance and management of the state,” putting special emphasis on metal and chemical industries as the “main link in the whole chain of economic development.”

Kim also announced plans to expand state control of society, clamp down on foreign culture and media, and launch a “powerful mass campaign against practices running counter to the socialist lifestyle.”

 

8. North Koreans piloted Bank of Valletta heist with Nigerian social media influencer

maltatoday.com.mt

Now here is an "alliance" to end all alliances: the mafia like crime family cult of the KFR and the Nigerian princes.

 

9.  Ramseyer ‘comfort women’ paper challenged by historians

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

 

10. North Korea's nukes aren't going anywhere, and the US needs to get over it

Business Insider · by Bonnie Kristian

Yes but...

That does not mean provide concessions or sanctions relief.  It does not mean we should legitimize the regime as a nuclear power.  We need to be very careful and not act in a way that Kim interprets his political warfare strategy as a success.  Instead we need to execute a superior form of political warfare strategy that has a long term view.  A new strategy must be built on deterrence, defense, denuclearization, and resolution of the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice Agreement) by employing a superior form of political warfare.  It should consist of 5 lines of effort: comprehensive diplomacy, resolute alliance military strength, pressure through enforced sanctions, cyber defense and offensive operations, and information and influence activities to target the regime elite, the second-tier leadership, and the population to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and separate the Kim family regime from the elite and the 2d tier leadership as well as to prepare the population for unification.  

 

11. ICAS Strategy poll - Moon's Peace Process Doomed To Fail The Security Of Korean Peninsula

icasinc.org

A supporting power point presentation with graphic data can be directly downloaded here: https://www.icasinc.org/strategy/polling15.pptx

 

12. Outcome of Korea-U.S.-Japan Trilateral Video Teleconference (Feb. 19) 

mofa.go.kr · by Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

The ROK MOFA readout on the trilateral teleconference.  A positive step forward and I hope this continues on a routine basis.

 

13.   South Korea’s prime minister has joined Clubhouse

TechCrunch · by Danny Crichton

Certainly, an interesting development.

Excerpt:

According to local media reports, Chung spoke in a Clubhouse room for over an hour with fellow Democratic Party of Korea member Jung Cheong-rae. In a public Facebook post yesterday, the prime minister said that “I heard this [app] is ‘hot’ these days so I tried it as a nighttime walk.”

He further said “I was a little startled by the unexpected questions and reactions but the new experience was enjoyable. I think I’ll participate from time to time in the future.” Elaborating, he said “the fact that it’s audio-only and everyone can have a conversation without reserve made me think that it’s a better communication tool than any other social media platforms, especially since currently we’re living in the age of non-face-to-face communication.”

 

14. Kimchi feud: Korea rallies support from foreign envoys

The Korea Times – by Park Han-sol February 21, 2021

Who will win the soft power battle: Korea or China?  I have never seen Kimchi in China, though obviously I have never lived there and have not spent as much time there as I have in Korea (more than a decade of living there and a couple of more decades of travel there so I am biased).
 

 

"Own only what you can always carry with you: know languages, know countries, know people. Let your memory be your travel bag."

- Alexander Solzhenitsyn

 

“Think lightly of yourself and deeply of the world”

- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to Strategy

 

“Democracy not only requires equality but also an unshakable conviction in the value of each person, who is then equal”

- Jeane Kirkpatrick

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference

2. Three Wars, No Victory – Why? By Bing West  

3. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

4. Estonian Intelligence: Russians will develop deepfake threats

5. Anti-Asian crimes a disgrace to US, must be stopped: US lawmakers

6. U.N. Report Accuses Blackwater Founder Erik Prince of Libya Weapons Ban Violations, Diplomat Says

7. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

8. Solzhenitsyn & the engine of history by Robert D. Kaplan

9. Biden Wants to Restore NATO. Macron Is Looking to Move On.

10. Biden Defends Democracy at Summits With European Allies, Seeing China as ‘Stiff’ Competition

11. Analysis | Biden sends an international message about democracy that resonates here at home

12. Trans-Atlantic 'Quad' prepares for new Eastern center of gravity

13. A strong offense can decrease cyberattacks on critical infrastructure

14. Will the Quad Evolve and Embrace Taiwan?

15. U.S. alleges wider Oath Keepers conspiracy, adds more defendants in Jan. 6 Capitol riot

16. ‘This Crap Means More to Him Than My Life’: When QAnon Invades American Homes

17. How to Wage a Counterinsurgency Against Organizational Culture

18. When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

19. Biden to order review of U.S. reliance on overseas supply chains for semiconductors, rare earths

20. The US Puts Its Greatest Vulnerability on Display

 

1. Remarks by President Biden at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/02/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-the-2021-virtual-munich-security-conference/

We will be studying and parsing these remarks for some time to come.

Key excerpt (among many):

Historians are going to examine and write about this moment as an inflection point, as I said.  And I believe that — every ounce of my being — that democracy will and must prevail.  We must demonstrate that democracies can still deliver for our people in this changed world.  That, in my view, is our galvanizing mission.

Democracy doesn’t happen by accident.  We have to defend it, fight for it, strengthen it, renew it.  We have to prove that our model isn’t a relic of our history; it’s the single best way to revitalize the promise of our future.  And if we work together with our democratic partners, with strength and confidence, I know that we’ll meet every challenge and outpace every challenger.

Is there any American who can argue with the above statements?

I like how Nicholas Burns summaries the President's speech in this tweet:

This President Biden speech frames the major issue squarely:  we must compete with autocracies—China and Russia—and defend democracies when they are challenged.  The democratic world needs to be confident in its global role. @RNicholasBurns

My tweet in response: Simple, clear, and concise. But as Clausewitz said. "in war everything is simple, but even the simplest thing is hard." Defending our democracy and democracies around the world is going to take a lot of hard work. But it must be done. Now let's get to work.

 

2. Three Wars, No Victory – Why? By Bing West  

https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2021/03/08/three-wars-no-victory-why/ - by Bing West

Conclusion:

Of the three wars, only in Vietnam did the popular mood, as reflected in the press and in congressional votes, play the final, pivotal role in the failure.

In Iraq, by 2011 our military had established a solid path forward, as long as our troops remained the stabilizing force. In 2012, however, policy-makers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by peremptorily withdrawing our troops, allowing the terrorists to reconstitute and resulting in a mess by 2021. 

In Afghanistan, our security objective post-9/11 was to destroy the terrorist movement. That goal has been largely achieved. But the White House overreached by widening the mission to include nation-building. Our military commanders and the policy hub share equal responsibility for refusing to acknowledge that this was too ambitious. A self-sustaining democratic nation was achievable only if, as in South Korea, we were willing to stay in large numbers for 70 years. 

What lies ahead? Clearly we should be pivoting to deter China, and not to engage in another counterinsurgency. In terms of military strategy, the Marine Corps has emerged as innovative in shifting its focus accordingly. The capital investments, however, of the Navy and Air Force do not reflect a pivot to offset China. The Trump administration, while antagonizing our allies, did awaken the public hub to the threat of China’s ambitions. But if failure in our past three small wars tells us anything, it is that the policy hub emanating from the White House has grown too confident of its own quixotic infallibility, unchallenged by a divisive Congress that is supine in matters of war. When America is not determined, we lose. There is no sign that the policy hub has the humility to grasp that existential fact.

 

3. COVID conspiracy shows vast reach of Chinese disinformation

Philadelphia Inquirer · by ERIKA KINETZ

In case anyone missed this.

 

4. Estonian Intelligence: Russians will develop deepfake threats

euractiv.com · by Samuel Stolton · February 18, 2021

And China.  And Iran.  And north Korea. And nefarious non-State actors.

 

5. Anti-Asian crimes a disgrace to US, must be stopped: US lawmakers

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · February 20, 2021

What is wrong with us as Americans? Why do we do this? Why do we allow our fellow citizens to do this?  Paradoxically due to COVID 19 my Asian American wife and daughter are minimizing their exposure to these potential racists in public.

That said I do not think any laws will prevent these crimes that are perpetrated by ignorant racists.  And we need to be careful in passing laws that overreach and actually play into the narratives of extremists (and foreign entities conducting malign activities and disinformation) who foment this type of behavior.

Congressman Kim is correct here: "Rep. Andy Kim of New Jersey underscored the need for a whole-of-nation approach to address the issue, saying, “This problem cannot be addressed by any single level of government.”

 

6. U.N. Report Accuses Blackwater Founder Erik Prince of Libya Weapons Ban Violations, Diplomat Says

WSJ · by Jared Malsin

Excerpts:

The role in the effort of companies based in Dubai also highlights Mr. Prince’s close ties to the United Arab Emirates and its ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Zayed. Mr. Prince has been linked to a range of mercenary efforts on behalf of the Emirates, including an effort to combat Somali pirates, according to a previous U.N. report. The U.A.E. also has been a key military backer of Mr. Haftar, sending air defenses, armed drones, ammunition and airplanes to support the militia leader’s campaigns, according to multiple U.N. reports. Mr. Prince visited Abu Dhabi in recent weeks, according to the diplomat.

The U.N. report, the diplomat said, also accuses Mr. Prince of violating a U.N. Security Council resolution by failing to provide information about the alleged violations of the arms embargo when contacted by the Panel of Experts.

In addition to naming Mr. Prince in the report, the U.N. Panel of Experts is also expected to separately refer Mr. Prince to the United Nations’ Sanctions Committee, which will make a decision about whether to impose an asset freeze or travel ban to be implemented by individual countries including the U.S., the diplomat said.

 

7. U.S. investigating possible ties between Roger Stone, Alex Jones and Capitol rioters

The Washington Post – by Spencer S. Hsu and Devlin Barrett - February 20, 2021

A couple of wild and crazy guys (apologies to Steve Martin for appropriating that phrase - I of course do not mean it from a humor perspective).

 

8. Solzhenitsyn & the engine of history by Robert D. Kaplan

newcriterion.com · by Robert D. Kaplan

A useful weekend read.  We can learn so much from Solzhenitsyn.

I do collect Solzhenitsyn quotes (such as this one).  "Even the most rational approach to ethics is defenseless if there isn't the will to do what is right" - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

Conclusion: In his first book, published in 1957, titled A World Restored, the young Henry Kissinger wrote that “the most fundamental problem of politics . . . is not the control of wickedness but the limitation of righteousness.” It is self-righteousness that lies at the heart of most tyrannies: the belief that only you and your side are moral and on the right side of history, making your opponents immoral, and therefore not only wrong but illegitimate. This was what the vast anarchy across the whole of Russia, every detail captured in quasi-fictionalized manner by Solzhenitsyn, finally wrought. Solzhenitsyn was a conservative because he believed in tradition. And because he believed in tradition he also believed in moderation, all of which made him a great humanist. His Red Wheel warns still of the future, with all its terrifying technological and ideological innovations.

 

9. Biden Wants to Restore NATO. Macron Is Looking to Move On.

defenseone.com · by Kevin Baron

I suppose history does rhyme.  It is not like France has not moved on from NATO in the past though obviously the conditions and Macron's intent are different now.

 

10. Biden Defends Democracy at Summits With European Allies, Seeing China as ‘Stiff’ Competition

WSJ · by William Mauldin

Excerpt: "Mr. Biden said he doesn’t want conflict between blocs of nations. “Competition must not lock out cooperation on issues that affect us all,” Mr. Biden said. “For example, we must cooperate if we’re going to defeat Covid-19 everywhere.”

 

11. Analysis | Biden sends an international message about democracy that resonates here at home

The Washington Post – by Philip Bump - February 19, 2021

Analysis from a political party perspective in Europe and the US. 

 

12. Trans-Atlantic 'Quad' prepares for new Eastern center of gravity

asia.nikkei.com – by Ken Moriyasu

What is the word for when two "Quads" are added together?

 

13. A strong offense can decrease cyberattacks on critical infrastructure

The Hill · by Michael Hayden, Tom Ridge, John Shkor and Mark Montgomery · February 19, 2021

Here here.

Excerpts:

President Biden intends to impose consequences on the actors behind the most recent cyberattacks on U.S. businesses and agencies. And the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act establishes a much-needed, Senate-confirmed national cyber director within the Executive Office of the President to direct and coordinate a “whole of government” response.

The departments of State, Homeland Security, Defense, Justice, Treasury, Commerce and the United States Trade Representative and Director of National Intelligence now should be tasked with developing a full array of sanctions and consequences that can be levied against malicious cyber actors.

Improving our ability to repel cyberattacks is important, but our overall cyber strategy must also include a strong offensive capability and the will to use it whenever and wherever necessary.

 

14. Will the Quad Evolve and Embrace Taiwan?

The National Interest · by Jagannath Panda · February 17, 2021

Yes, this is probably one of if not the most, complex issues for the Quad.

 

15. U.S. alleges wider Oath Keepers conspiracy, adds more defendants in Jan. 6 Capitol riot

The Washington Post – by Spencer S. Hsu and Rachel Weiner - February 19, 2021

Again, this will play right into the narratives of extremists if this is not handled correctly.

 

16. ‘This Crap Means More to Him Than My Life’: When QAnon Invades American Homes

Politico – by Anastasia Carrier

Perhaps the most dangerous cult and ideology in American politics today??? I still have hard time believing that people can really believe in the QAnon conspiracy theories. 

 

17. How to Wage a Counterinsurgency Against Organizational Culture

fromthegreennotebook.com · by Benjamin Ordiway · February 20, 2021

Excerpts:  

In summary, behaviors regress to the organization’s cultural mean. Leaders would do well to invest their time to move the mean toward the 20% of moral multipliers. Reinvesting your time in these true, quiet professionals will make your organization’s portfolio more resilient by raising the overall culture’s commitment to the organization’s values. You will foster a culture of defensive stocks, which will isolate the organizational insurgents, possibly preventing them from becoming toxic assets.

Moreover, viewing these exemplars as organizational change agents and messaging their example may, like preventative maintenance, deter organizational insurgents. By swaying the intermediate population toward a culture of commitment, leaders increase the certainty that bad actors will be held accountable for their misdeeds. After all, organizational insurgents likely avoid interacting with moral multipliers. To shape organizational culture is to wage a counterinsurgency against the 10% by investing time in the 70% by, with, and through the 20%.

Parting thought: crises are opportunities. They reveal the underlying assumptions at work in organizations. They signal to leaders where they’ve been spending too much time and where they haven’t invested enough. When you are not facing a crisis, do you proactively invest your time in your moral multipliers to ultimately recruit the influenceable intermediate and bring about a positive return? Or, do you spend your time on the organizational insurgents, perpetually reacting to the symptoms of an organizational culture that you, in part, fostered by neglecting your best stocks?

 

18. When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

This is an important excerpt and show the value of nongovernmental actors (and it is also why I am such a strong believer in open source information and obtaining such information from not only the press but all from non-governmental actors):

• Creativity. Nongovernmental actors unbound by bureaucracy can be more innovative in ways that traditional spy agencies at times struggle with. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, a U.S. nonprofit, has combined its unique accesses to North Korean escapees with publicly available satellite imagery and other open-source information to publish visually evocative details about North Korea’s vast detention system. Some of these revelations have never before been disclosed publicly and reportedly informed U.S. officials’ understanding of — and policy toward — the notoriously opaque country.

When Government Intelligence Agencies Encounter Nonstate Competitors

https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/when-government-intelligence-agencies-encounter-nonstate-competitors - by Sam Lichtenstein

 

19. Biden to order review of U.S. reliance on overseas supply chains for semiconductors, rare earths

CNBC · by Thomas Franck, Kayla Tausche · February 18, 2021

As we must.

 

20. The US Puts Its Greatest Vulnerability on Display

defenseone.com · by Kori Schake

From one of our most serious national security thinkers.

A brilliant conclusion but is it too naive to think we can change in this way?  We could not in 1861.

“Ultimately, though, Americans will have to choose to do these things, which means we will have to repair the culture that underlies and shapes our politics. As Lincoln concluded in 1838, “Passion has helped us; but can do so no more. It will in future be our enemy.” What the country needed instead, he argued, was “general intelligence, sound morality, and in particular, a reverence for the Constitution and laws.” How to get there is the problem. But Americans have to expect a lot more than the status quo from our government and ourselves.”

The fundamental questions we should be asking ourselves as Americans: Is our democracy worth protecting and sustaining? Are we willing to commit to its defense and put the greater good ahead of bankrupt extreme political agendas?

 

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

 

“Simply put, the [Kim family] regime has become a criminal syndicate with a flag, which harnesses its state resources to steal hundreds of millions of dollars.”

- John C. Demers, the head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, on North Korea

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Riley Murray.

 

1.  Legal Opinion: Whether the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (“Anti-Leaflet Law”) violates ROK domestic or international legal obligations

2. Int'l human rights group voices concerns over Seoul's ban on sending of anti-N.K. leaflets

3. FDD | North Korean Hackers Could Ramp Up Cyberattacks on COVID-19 Targets in Near Future

4. 

5. N.K. paper stresses 'economic principles' and 'scientific analysis' in economic policy

6. Joint efforts of S. Korea, Japan critical to denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

7. N. Korea appoints former trade minister as ambassador to China

8. Gov’t plans to establish offices in N. Korea for inter-Korean exchanges

9. Japanese maps define Dokdo as Korean territory

10. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Working Through Winter

11.. The U.S. Has Released the Most Comprehensive Catalog of North Korean Cybercrimes Ever Made Public

12. Report: North Korean who crossed DMZ likely not a civilian

13. 'Sincere apology' from Japan required on 'comfort women,' Moon says

14. North Korea: Sitting on $3 Trillion in Natural Resources?

15. Is South Korea on Verge of a Demographics Crisis?

 

1. Legal Opinion: Whether the Republic of Korea (ROK)’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (“Anti-Leaflet Law”) violates ROK domestic or international legal obligations

hrnkinsider.org · by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea

Thank you to professional human rights attorneys, Bro Bono and Amanda Mortwedt Oh, for this important legal analysis as summarized here:

Summary:

South Korea’s Amendment to the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act (the “Amendment”) violates ROK domestic and international legal obligations, namely the Constitution of the Republic of Korea and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR). The Amendment to the law is flawed in its statutory construction, poses jurisdictional considerations, infringes on fundamental rights, is excessively punitive, and has implications on existing inter-Korean agreements. The Amendment also infringes on international human rights, including the freedoms of expression, thought, conscience and religion, and assembly and association. Ultimately, the Amendment unnecessarily targets North Korean escapee groups working to send information, goods, and remittances to their fellow people and families in the North. If entered into force on March 30, 2021, this Amendment will also create second-order effects on the already vulnerable and oppressed North Korean people under the totalitarian rule of Kim Jong-un.

 

2. Int'l human rights group voices concerns over Seoul's ban on sending of anti-N.K. leaflets

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 20, 2021

Here is the link to the Human Rights Watch letter: https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/02/18/human-rights-watch-submission-ministry-unification

I think the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) analysis is more comprehensive (truth in advertising, I am a member of the HRNK board of directors so I am biased) but there is strength in numbers as all the human rights organizations as well as like-minded democracies need to point out to their fellow democracy the error they have made in passing the anti-leaflet amendment." Here is the link to the HRNK analysis: https://www.hrnkinsider.org/2021/02/legal-opinion-whether-republic-of-korea.html

As an aside it is interesting how Human RIghts Watch describes South Korea:

The Republic of Korea (South Korea) is a democracy that generally respects most civil, political, and socio-economic liberties, although significant human rights concerns remain. Discrimination against women is pervasive, as is discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) people, racial and ethnic minorities, and people with disabilities. The government has also maintained or imposed several excessive restrictions on freedom of expression, association, and peaceful assembly. In 2020, South Korea implemented important public health measures to protect against the spread of Covid-19, but aspects of its response raised serious privacy rights concerns. 

https://www.hrw.org/asia/south-korea#

 

3.  FDD | North Korean Hackers Could Ramp Up Cyberattacks on COVID-19 Targets in Near Future

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · February 19, 2021

From my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

4. FDD | DOJ Charges Reveal North Korean Cybercrime and Money Laundering Schemes

fdd.org · by Mathew Ha · February 19, 2021

A useful explanation of the recent DOJ indictment from my colleague Mathew Ha.

 

5. N.K. paper stresses 'economic principles' and 'scientific analysis' in economic policy

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 20, 2021

Except in north Korea science is based on the juche ideology. Juche ideology takes precedence over science or we might say in north Korea it is juche based science.

 

6. Joint efforts of S. Korea, Japan critical to denuclearization of N. Korea: State Dept.

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 20, 2021

We cannot emphasize this enough. There will be NO success for any of the three nations in Northeast Asia without sufficient trilateral cooperation.

 

7. N. Korea appoints former trade minister as ambassador to China

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 19, 2021

It goes without saying how important China is in every area but especially trade and economic activity. Of course, the regime is going to have to lift its extreme restrictions on trade with China imposed due to COVID and perhaps this appointment is an indication that it will do so in the near future. Personnel is policy.

 

8. Gov’t plans to establish offices in N. Korea for inter-Korean exchanges

donga.com

Of course, if north Korea approves this it will place these offices on its target list for blackmail diplomacy.

 

9.  Japanese maps define Dokdo as Korean territory

The Korea Times · February 19, 2021

Ahhh... Just another point of Japan-Korea friction. As an aside there are many maps in the US Library of Congress that define Dokdo as Korean territory. 

 

10. North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Center: Working Through Winter

38north.org · by Peter Makowsky · February 19, 2021

What if?? What if there had been an agreement to dismantle Yongbyon (for the nth time) at Hanoi? What we would be seeing and writing about now? My guess - how the regime cheated and we would be seeing much the same as we are seeing now.

 

11. The U.S. Has Released the Most Comprehensive Catalog of North Korean Cybercrimes Ever Made Public

Slate · by Josephine Wolff · February 19, 2021

The indictment can be accessed here: https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1367701/download

 

12. Report: North Korean who crossed DMZ likely not a civilian

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim

Well trained with a will to survive? Was this an infiltration attempt or an escape?

 

13. 'Sincere apology' from Japan required on 'comfort women,' Moon says

upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim

As some Koreans have told me it is not a sincere apology that is necessary, it is the admission of crimes and a public acceptance of responsibility for those crimes.

 

14.  North Korea: Sitting on $3 Trillion in Natural Resources?

19fortyfive.com · by Ethen Kim Lieser · February 19, 2021

This is not new (though the $3 trillion headline is an attention getter). In 1989 the UN Tumen River Area Development program estimated some of the largest untapped mineral deposits in the world are in the tri border area of northeast north Korea. I wrote about it here in 1996:

“The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military” 

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf 

This is also why the Chinese have been negotiating 50 and 100 year leases of mineral rights in north Korea. Some day they will have access to and potentially control these deposits.

 

15.  Is South Korea on Verge of a Demographics Crisis?

The National Interest · by Ethen Kim Lieser · February 19, 2021

Dr. Bruce Bennett has done some important research and analysis on this issue and its implications for the ROK military and security of the ROK.

It may seem like a reach but this is one of the conditions that should drive Korean recognition of the importance of the UN Command as a force provider to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. A resumption of hostilities on the Korean peninsula will be manpower intensive and South Korea's defense and military success may be dependent on the support of an international coalition that will bring much needed manpower.

 

"A great many people think they are thinking when they are merely rearranging their prejudices."

- William James

 

“Simply put, the [Kim family] regime has become a criminal syndicate with a flag, which harnesses its state resources to steal hundreds of millions of dollars.”

- John C. Demers, the head of the Justice Department’s National Security Division, on North Korea

 

"The essential thing is action. Action has three stages: the decision born of thought, the order or preparation for execution, and the execution itself. All three stages are governed by the will. The will is rooted in character, and for the man of action character is of more critical importance than intellect. Intellect without will is worthless, will without intellect is dangerous."

- Hans von Seeckt

Full Article: https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaidas-soon-to-be-third-emir-a-profile-of-saif-al-adl/

Abstract: With the confirmed deaths of Hamza bin Ladin and Abu Muhammad al-Masri, as well as the reported (but as yet unconfirmed) demise of al-Qa`ida’s second emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the likely next in line to inherit the leadership is an Egyptian who goes by the nom de guerre Saif al-`Adl. Like the late Abu Muhammad, Saif lives in Iran and is apparently restricted from leaving the country. Little is known about his current movements or activities. Nevertheless, Saif’s revered status within the movement, as well as his deep experience as a military, intelligence, and security leader and a terrorist planner, make him a potentially dangerous emir.

The updated 1st Special Forces Command Vision document can be accessed HERE. 

Command TeamForward:

"The 2018 National Defense Strategy articulates the need to shift towards Great Power Competition. While the fight against Violent Extremism persists, we must also turn our attention to near-peer adversaries who closed the gap on our Nation’s competitive advantages over the last two decades.

Despite these changes, the fundamental nature of our fight remains the same. The Irregular Warfare Annex to the 2018 NDS highlights that Irregular Warfare is inextricably linked to national security in the modern era. Our vision supports this enduring concept, which is foundational to our fight and is anticipated to remain an integral part of future National Defense Strategies as well. As masters of IW, we have always risen to the challenge - and we will continue to do so in the future. Just as our formations played an enormous role in the counterterrorism and counter-insurgency fights of the previous two decades, our role in competition will be crucial to set the conditions for success.

We will continue to serve as strategic sensors and members of influence networks which enable JIIM partners to impose costs on our adversaries in multiple domains, and set the conditions to win on any battlefield should deterrence fail.

To expand our competitive advantage, we must embrace revolutionary change needed to compete, deter and win against near-peer adversaries in an increasingly complex environment. We must focus our attention towards innovation that enables Convergence, Force Development, and CONUS-Based Operational Support. This vision lays the groundwork for how we will adapt to be the First to Observe, First to Influence, and First to Compete in 2021 and beyond."

(Editor's Note: I think this vision document well describes the two "SOF Trinities:"  Irregular Warfare, Unconventional Warfare, and Support to Political Warfare and the comparative advantage of SOF: influence, governance, and support to indigenous forces and populations).

Full Post: https://sof.news/update/20210216/

Topics Include:

-Possible retirement of the Navy's Mk VI Small Boats

-Belgian SF gender mixed unit capabilities

-SOF History

-Ireland looking at a Resistance Operating Concept

-The Small Wars Journal Article "Building Partner Capacity is Great Power Competition"

-Podcasts

-And much more

Ensuring the Taliban do not seek a battlefield victory will require sustained U.S. attention and resources.

Meghan L. O’Sullivan; Vikram J. Singh; Johnny Walsh

Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/02/how-prevent-fresh-hostilities-afghan-peace-talks-progress

Many peace processes experience at least short-term reversions to violence. Even a successful Afghan peace process will be at risk of the same, especially in the likely event that the United States and its allies continue to withdraw troops from Afghanistan. Ideally, such troop reductions would move in parallel with de-escalatory measures by the Taliban and other armed actors on the ground. A healthy dose of realism is in order, however. Though the Taliban and others in Afghanistan are unlikely to ever fully disarm or demobilize, persistent resources and attention from the United States and its allies can help prevent any regression to full-scale violence during the years of any peace agreement’s implementation.

As the Afghanistan peace negotiations (APN) progress, there is considerable focus on the details of the U.S. troop drawdown, but less attention is given to parallel moves the Taliban may make as the U.S. military capacity to challenge it diminishes. To ensure a lasting peace, the United States and its partners should strive to minimize the possibility that, once international forces withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban remobilize and seek a battlefield victory.