A roundup of the conflict in against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
Topics Include:
Partner Forces
The state of ISIS in Iraq and Syria
Troop Reductions
Link: https://www.dodig.mil/In-the-Spotlight/Article/2497908/lead-inspector-general-for-operation-inherent-resolve-quarterly-report-to-the-u/
A discussion between Maj. Gen. John Brennan, commander of the 1st Special Forces command, Brig. Gen. Scott Jackson, commander of the Security Force Assistance Command, and Col. Mike Sullivan, commander of the 2nd Security Force Assistance Brigade on the roles and synergy of Special Forces and SFAB Advisors.
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lprbyi0Ehuk
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3n3I7g9LSmd143GYCy7pPA
Google Podcasts: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5idXp6c3Byb3V0LmNvbS8xMzg5MTc1LnJzcw/episode/QnV6enNwcm91dC03ODA5NTAy?sa=X&ved=0CAQQkfYCahcKEwjI9J_Fh-PuAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Biden announces new Pentagon China task force
2. Biden also announced a new Pentagon-led review of military strategy towards China.
3. Bill would cut over 100,000 DoD jobs
4. U.S.-Cuba: Secrets of the 'Havana Syndrome'
5. White House Announces Senior Official Is Leading Inquiry Into SolarWinds Hacking
6. A majority of the people arrested for Capitol riot had a history of financial trouble
7. Trump’s Worst 2 Military Mistakes for Biden to Fix
8. In first call with China’s Xi, Biden stresses U.S. commitment to allies and human rights
9. US and Japan are 'making progress' on military support agreement, State Department says
10. US hints at modifications of FONOPs under Biden
11. Water-Supply Hack Should Be a Wake-Up Call, Experts Say
12. How the Pacific Islands Forum Fell Apart
13. We Must Reorient US Cyber Strategy Around the Only Safe Assumption
14. New Pentagon chief commits support for PH in South China Sea
15. Want to Redefine Readiness? Here’s Where to Start
16. The WHO Investigation Shows Beijing Still Pulls the Strings
1. Biden announces new Pentagon China task force
Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · February 10, 2021
Excerpt:
“It will be made up of “up to” 15 civilian and uniformed officials, will be led by Ely Ratner, a former deputy national security adviser to Biden who joined the department as Austin’s special assistant on China.”
2. Biden also announced a new Pentagon-led review of military strategy towards China.
defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams
Biden: ‘I Will Never Politicize’ US Troops
Biden also announced a new Pentagon-led review of military strategy towards China.
3. Bill would cut over 100,000 DoD jobs
federaltimes.com · by Jessie Bur · February 10, 2021
Excerpts:
“The legislation seeks to give the secretary of defense the mandate and the tools necessary to implement cost saving measures without being overly prescriptive,” a spokesperson for Calvert told Federal Times, adding that it, “if made permanent, would affect the contracts and IT support needed within the department required to meet the full $125 billion. This force shaping measure would allow the secretary of defense the discretion to implement many of the measures included in the report, as well as weight performance more heavily to ensure we keep the best and brightest of our civilian workforce.”
The bill is unlikely to gain White House support, as President Joe Biden has promised both before and after his inauguration to protect federal workers from the kinds of removals proposed under the Trump administration and to encourage more qualified personnel to start government jobs.
4. U.S.-Cuba: Secrets of the 'Havana Syndrome'
nsarchive.gwu.edu · February 8, 2021
5. White House Announces Senior Official Is Leading Inquiry Into SolarWinds Hacking
The New York Times · by Julian E. Barnes and David E. Sanger · February 10, 2021
Excerpts:
“After briefings on the issue, Mr. Warner and Mr. Rubio wrote that “the threat our country still faces from this incident needs clear leadership to develop and guide a unified strategy for recovery, in particular a leader who has the authority to coordinate the response, set priorities, and direct resources to where they are needed.”
Ms. Neuberger’s efforts are focused on directing agencies hit by the Russian intrusion to patch and repair their networks, examine the government’s response to the episode and work with the private sector. She is also overseeing a study of the longer-term implications of the attack on the “supply chain” of software, Ms. Horne said.
The White House has also charged the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to conduct an assessment of the SolarWinds hacking, work that is continuing.
Mr. Warner has pledged to hold public hearings on the intrusion to help better understand what happened.
6. A majority of the people arrested for Capitol riot had a history of financial trouble
The Washington Post· by Todd Frankel · February 10, 2021
Hmmm... an interesting use of statistics to support the desired narrative.
7. Trump’s Worst 2 Military Mistakes for Biden to Fix
Foreign Policy · by Bradley Bowman · February 10, 2021
From the Director of our Center for Military and Political Power at FDD.
8. In first call with China’s Xi, Biden stresses U.S. commitment to allies and human rights
The Washington Post· by Anne Gearan · February 11, 2021
Excerpts:
“A White House statement on Biden’s first conversation with Xi since taking office said Biden “affirmed his priorities of protecting the American people’s security, prosperity, health, and way of life, and preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific,” and did not mention tariffs or trade policy.
“President Biden underscored his fundamental concerns about Beijing’s coercive and unfair economic practices, crackdown in Hong Kong, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and increasingly assertive actions in the region, including toward Taiwan,” the White House statement said.
Biden tweeted late Wednesday that he had told Xi the United States would also work with China when doing so suits American interests.”
9. US and Japan are 'making progress' on military support agreement, State Department says
Stars and Stripes · by Seth Robson · February 11, 2021
Excerpts:
“Trump had demanded Japan pay $8 billion a year for hosting U.S. troops in the country, former national security adviser John Bolton wrote in his memoir, “The Room Where It Happened,” published in June.
Reports of progress in negotiations are good news for bilateral ties, Kingston said Thursday.”
10. US hints at modifications of FONOPs under Biden
asiatimes.com · by Mark Valencia · February 11, 2021
Excerpts:
“But Vietnam and Taiwan do not claim baselines enclosing the entire group. So the FONOP must have been purposely designed to penetrate and challenge not only the Chinese baselines but also the regime in the 12-nautical-mile territorial sea around high-tide features.
This means it was aimed at all three and not just China and perhaps was trying to demonstrate that the FONOP was about upholding principle and not just targeting China – like most of those under former president Donald Trump.
Biden’s Indo-Pacific policy coordinator Kurt Campbell had offered some hope of a change, and these are small rays of hope that it may be in the works. Shortly before his appointment he wrote in Foreign Affairs regarding the US-China conundrum that ”the present situation could be reversed” but that it “will be challenging and require diplomatic finesse, commercial innovation, and institutional creativity … [and] serious re-engagement….“
However, the destabilizing fundamental contradictions remain. China’s declared closing baselines around the Paracel features violate the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea that China – unlike the US – has ratified.”
11. Water-Supply Hack Should Be a Wake-Up Call, Experts Say
defenseone.com · by Mariam Baksh
Was some organization conducting "cyber reconnaissance" by probing defenses to determine what kind of attack could be successful?
Excerpts:
“This time an amateur move of a rogue mouse cursor gave the preparators away, but we are seeing a sharp rise in sophisticated, stealthy attackers that slip under the radar unnoticed, what will happen the next time there is no flashing red light?” said Justin Fier, director of cyber intelligence and analytics for the firm Darktrace. He said governments around the world will be taking a closer look at their defenses for lessons, but so will malicious actors.
Whatever the identity of the hacker, Todt said the incident should propel CISA to take a more proactive role with water utilities and all critical infrastructure sectors.
“Defending our critical networks is a challenge exemplified by SolarWinds and now punctuated by this water utility crisis,” she said.
12. How the Pacific Islands Forum Fell Apart
thediplomat.com · by Cleo Paskal · February 10, 2021
From my FDD colleague, Cleo Paskal.
Excerpts:
“Attention should also be paid to countries still within the PIF – rather than letting Canberra and Wellington forge on with their ill-advised, damaging, and eventually doomed “integration.” For example, Tuvalu is the only country remaining in the PIF that recognizes Taiwan. Given the influence China seems to think it has via the PIF, outreach to Tuvalu is crucial (including direct flights, trade, education, and health assistance) to help it hold the line. If New Zealand is advising Australia to “show respect” to Beijing, one can only imagine what it’ll tell Tuvalu. Perhaps Tuvalu would be interested in a U.S. COFA?
Real, stable security is aggregate – put together with patience, understanding, and trust, building block by building block. If the goal is a stable, secure, cohesive Oceania, Australia, New Zealand, and likely France just blew it apart. Now it’s up to the region and its partners to do the hard work to figure out how to put the pieces back together again, for their sake and for ours – and before Beijing does it in its own image.”
13. We Must Reorient US Cyber Strategy Around the Only Safe Assumption
defenseone.com · by Dmitri Alperovitch
Assume the bad guys are already (and always) in the network and do these five things:
We Must Reorient US Cyber Strategy Around the Only Safe Assumption
We should assume adversaries are already in our networks — and Congress should take these five steps to mitigate the damage.
14. New Pentagon chief commits support for PH in South China Sea
globalnation.inquirer.net · by Frances Mangosing · February 10, 2021
The Philippine view of the readout on the call between the SECDEF and the DEFMIN.
15. Want to Redefine Readiness? Here’s Where to Start
defenseone.com · by Seamus Daniels
Yep. Congress has a vote.
Excerpts:
“DoD doesn’t get the only say, however. Congress has long guarded legacy equipment that the Department has sought to eliminate, out of concern for near-term threats both to America and to constituents’ interests. The 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, for example, restricts the military’s ability to retire aircraft. If DoD expects the Hill to buy into a more holistic conception of readiness, it must show that it is managing and mitigating risks to short-term readiness as it directs resources towards modernization. To do this, the services must be willing to share data and plans with the committees that oversee them. One place to start is by revising budget documentation for operation and maintenance funds that are the most analogous to investments in readiness. DoD should provide the Hill with more detailed documentation for O&M accounts, enough to allow policymakers to see funding by type of unit, not just at an aggregated level. For greater transparency, the Department could also publish the five-year projections for O&M funds, which are currently in the classified portion of its budget submission―as it does for procurement and research, development, test and evaluation programs―to show its public commitment to managing present threats and the near-term readiness of the force.
Embracing a long-term view of readiness will put DoD on the right trajectory for competition with China and Russia. Convincing all parts of the U.S. defense enterprise may present challenges, but if the Department can adequately demonstrate and communicate how it will mitigate risks from competitors today, it will be better placed fiscally and strategically to prepare for the threats of tomorrow.”
16. The WHO Investigation Shows Beijing Still Pulls the Strings
Foreign Policy · by James Palmer · February 10, 2021
No surprise.
---------------
“If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?”
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
"Europe today has again become a vast battlefield of ideologies in which words have replaced armaments as the active elements of attack and defense." An evergreen statement. This was true over seven decades ago when it was written, and it is true today. - This statement opened a report by the special Smith-Mundt committee investigating the needs of the United States Information Service in Europe after traveling through Europe in Sep-Oct '47...'
- Thanks to Matt Armstrong
"Democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man."
- Ronald Reagan
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
2. South Korea, Conventional Capabilities, and the Future of the Korean Peninsula
3. US and South Korea nearing agreement on cost sharing for American troops
4. U.S. will not hesitate to use force when necessary to protect allies: Biden
5. Hwasong-12: North Korea's Powerful IRBM, Explained
6. Is Joe Biden Daring North Korea to Start a Crisis?
7. N Korea's Kim orders legal supervision over economic plan
8. Kim Jong Un admits North Korea is facing its 'worst ever' difficulties
9. Defense minister rekindles debate over volunteer military
10. The future of the South Korea–Iran relationship
11. North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
12. Top-ranking cadres receive special watches, TVs following Eighth Party Congress
13. Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
1. US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
voakorea.com · by 김영교 · February 11, 2021
This is a google translation of a very important Voice of America report (original Korean is provided below). Baek Sungwon asked the State Department to respond to a query as to whether the US would respond to Chinese renewed economic warfare over the deployment of THAAD based on interviews with the Chinese ambassador to Korea and comments he made on THAAD earlier this week. This is an incredibly important statement for the ROK/US alliance and the US commitment to it. I assume the reaffirmation of our commitment to our allies will this time include coming to the ROK defense against Chinese economic warfare.
The ROK and the United States made an alliance decision to deploy THAAD to the ROK as a purely defensive measure to protect the ROK and its people from armed attack, and to protect alliance military forces from North Korea's weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile threats.
We have repeatedly urged the PRC to address North Korea’s destabilizing activities, including enforcing all UN Security Council Resolutions that would tighten the screws on North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
THAAD is a prudent and limited self-defense capability designed to counter reckless and unlawful North Korean weapons programs. Criticism or pressure on the ROK to abandon its self-defense is unreasonable and inappropriate.
The United States reaffirms its commitment to its allies and will continue to develop a comprehensive set of alliance capabilities to counter the North Korean ballistic missile threat.
I would also add that this report is one indication of why we need Voice of America (and Radio Free Asia and the other organizations of the USAGM). This will be heard on broadcast reports in Korea and China and read on the internet as well. I expect we will see reports in Yonhap and other Korean media in the coming days that will be based on this report and because a senior editor and journalist of the Korean Service of VOA took the initiative to ask the right question and he received a very important response from the State Department that must not go unnoticed. So when we see Korean news reports on this it will be the result of the good work of Sungwon Baik.
US State Department "Pressure on THAAD in China, Unfair and Inappropriate... Plans to Strengthen North Korean Missile Response
2. South Korea, Conventional Capabilities, and the Future of the Korean Peninsula
warontherocks.com · by Ian Bowers · February 11, 2021
This provides a useful overview of emerging South Korean conventional military capabilities and their recent plans. Since 2003 we have been advocating that South Korea develop independent warfighting capabilities.
However, the authors argue these are destabilizing and may contribute to north Korea NOT denuclearizing.
They call for conventional arms control agreements to reduce South Korean conventional capabilities. When these arguments are made there is never a discussion about reducing north Korea's conventional capabilities or the recognition that the north has postured its military for offensive operations to be able to attack the South and dominate the peninsula. South Korea has the right to defend itself and it should not have to give up defensive capabilities while the north remains the very real hostile policy toward the South. While the north accuse the US of having a hostile policy the real hostile policy belongs to Kim Jong-un and his regime.
3. US and South Korea nearing agreement on cost sharing for American troops
CNN · by Kylie Atwood, Nicole Gaouette and Oren Liebermann, CNN
Hopefully, we will soon see resolution of the SMA negotiations. This article covers more than the headline and touches on the north Korea situation and the Biden Korea policy review.
4. U.S. will not hesitate to use force when necessary to protect allies: Biden
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 11, 2021
It is always interesting to note what the foreign media emphasizes when the president speaks. Obviously, defense of allies is critically important to Korea.
5. Hwasong-12: North Korea's Powerful IRBM, Explained
19fortyfive.com · by ByEli Fuhrman · February 9, 2021
We should not forget that north Korea continues to develop and field a broad range of missile capabilities.
Excerpts:
“Given its ability to range Guam, the Hwasong-12 offers North Korea some operational benefit. Indeed, during the showdown between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and U.S. President Donald Trump in 2017, Kim specifically mentioned Guam as a North Korean target. Despite this, the Hwasong-12’s primary significance can be found not in its military utility, but in how it has enabled North Korean development of more powerful ballistic missiles.
Following the Hwasong-12’s first successful test, analysts pointed to the potential implications for the development of a North Korean ICBM, highlighting a range of developments associated with the Hwasong-12 relevant to ICBM development, including the improved engine and better propellants along with a lighter airframe. Sure enough, the Hwasong-14, North Korea’s first successfully tested ICBM, clearly built on the Hwasong-12’s success: its first stage was identical to the Hwasong-12, utilizing the same engine and stabilizers.”
6. Is Joe Biden Daring North Korea to Start a Crisis?
19fortyfive.com · by Harry Kazianis · February 10, 2021
Why do we always assume the US is to blame for starting a crisis?
The argument from Harry is that the Biden administration is doing almost nothing on north Korea and that will precipitate a crisis. The between the lines argument seems to be that unless we engage and provide concession to the north there will be crisis on the peninsula.
But I do like this description: "...it seems clear North Korea has become a national security news orphan."
Harry is right, though, in that Kim will continue to build his nuclear arsenal. But engaging with concessions (e.g., sanctions relief - though in Harry's defense he did not explicitly say that)) will not stop or slow the nuclear and missile advancements the regime is pursuing.
7. N Korea's Kim orders legal supervision over economic plan
AP · by Hyung-Jin Kim · February 11, 2021
north Korea is a rule by law country and the regime does not respect the rule of law.
Excerpt:
“North Korea’s top prosecutor U Sang Chol told the party meeting that he will firmly implement Kim’s order. He said he’ll “offensively” keep legal watch over agencies violating the socialist economic management order and take “powerful measures” against any acts hampering efforts to strengthen industries, according to KCNA.
Kim faces what appears to be the toughest crisis of his nine-year rule as the already-troubled economy is hit by pandemic-related border closings that have sharply reduced the North’s external trade, a spate of natural disasters last summer and persistent U.S.-led sanctions. During the party congress, Kim described the difficulties as the “worst-ever.”
8. Kim Jong Un admits North Korea is facing its 'worst ever' difficulties
Daily Mail · by Chris Jewers · February 11, 2021
While he cannot control natural disasters or the COVID pandemic or sanctions he could take actions to have sanctions lifted and the policy decisions regarding natural disasters and COVID (e,g, the continued prioritization of the nuclear program and military over the welfare of the people) could be reversed to prioritize the welfare of the Korean people.
The suffering of the Korean people in the north is a result of Kim jong-un's policy decisions,
9. Defense minister rekindles debate over volunteer military
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · February 10, 2021
This obviously has long term implications for the nationals security of the ROK.
Excerpts:
“Conventional warfare still matters and manpower counts. We’ll have to deal with the drop in conscripts. But looking at volunteer military right away seems careless. It’s a wrong signal to everyone,” said Kim, a retired colonel who was once in charge of strategy planning at South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Moon Seong-mook, a former one-star Army general who served as chief negotiator at the inter-Korean military talks in 2007, pointed out that South Korea should think beyond the North Korean threat.
Even if we see a unified Korea, we still share borders with China and Russia to the north. They are not allies and have a much larger military presence. Are we comfortable with a reduced presence of our own?” Moon said, implying enlistment rates for volunteer military would be disappointing.
“I’m not saying let’s put it off the table. But it would be a historic departure. It doesn’t hurt to look before we leap.”
10. The future of the South Korea–Iran relationship
eastasiaforum.org · by Dal Seung Yu · February 11, 2021
Conclusion: The stoush in the Strait of Hormuz is an important event that will determine the future of the South Korea–Iran relationship. The simplest way to realise a swift resolution depends on the United States — the issue of frozen Iranian funds in South Korea is closely related to the US sanctions against Iran, so it can only be solved in the process of lifting these sanctions. South Korea must actively play the role of mediator in US–Iran relations, with the restoration of the JCPOA the primary goal.
11. North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
The Korea Times · February 11, 2021
The Propaganda and Agitation Department is trying to modernize and grow with the times.
Excerpt: "The North Korean regime has taken advantage of this new method of propaganda, as its leader Kim Jong-un pursues practical methods of promoting his country."
North Korea engaged in fights against YouTube sanctions
12. Top-ranking cadres receive special watches, TVs following Eighth Party Congress
dailynk.com · February 10, 2021
"I came to the 8th Party Congress and all I got was this watch" (and a TV). (apologies as I think I may have tried that humor previously).
But on a serious note that even with gifts the regime is trying to control economic activity in the north.
And this is what the rank and file received for their love. devotion, and loyalty to Kim Jong-un:
Meanwhile, ordinary spectators who took part in the congress reportedly received no gifts. “Spectators received no presents,” said the source. “They were only treated to high-end food such as noodles or turtle soup at the Okryu-gwan Restaurant.”
13. Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
korea.stripes.com · by ChiHon Kim · February 10, 2021
Happy New Year!
Let's open a can of Spam to celebrate Seollal in Korea
---------------
“If only it were all so simple! If only there were evil people somewhere insidiously committing evil deeds, and it were necessary only to separate them from the rest of us and destroy them. But the line dividing good and evil cuts through the heart of every human being. And who is willing to destroy a piece of his own heart?”
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, The Gulag Archipelago 1918–1956
"Europe today has again become a vast battlefield of ideologies in which words have replaced armaments as the active elements of attack and defense." An evergreen statement. This was true over seven decades ago when it was written, and it is true today. - This statement opened a report by the special Smith-Mundt committee investigating the needs of the United States Information Service in Europe after traveling through Europe in Sep-Oct '47...'
- Thanks to Matt Armstrong
"Democracy is worth dying for, because it's the most deeply honorable form of government ever devised by man."
- Ronald Reagan
Note that it will likely be a slow news period from the Korean media over the next 3-4 days as Korea celebrates the lunar new year.
Happy New Year. 새해 복 많이 받으세요
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. George Shultz Showed U.S. Foreign Policy Is Strongest When We Combine Realism and Human Rights
2. George Shultz Understood That Money Was Power
3. After Vietnam, American Society’s Relationship with Its Military Was Badly Frayed. After Twenty Years of Post-9/11 Wars, It Is Again. (Book Review essay)
4. Bureaucratizing to Fight Extremism in the Military
5. The Human Face of Nuclear Deterrence
6. Army Special Operations School Drops 'III' Logo Adopted by Extremist Group
7. ‘The system worked as designed’ is bad news
8. Air war against ISIS holds lessons for future battles
9. Biden to visit Pentagon hoping to shift from Trump turmoil
10. Lloyd Austin takes first steps to repair a battered Pentagon
11. LongShot: The DARPA Drone That Could Change Warfare
12. Military struggles to determine how many extremists are in the ranks
13. Blinken: ‘America is stronger with alliances’
14. Biden signals a ‘cold peace’ contest with China
15. The Great Firewall Cracked, Briefly. A People Shined Through.
16. How China uses extensive spying operations to assert its global dominance: From India to Afghanistan, the US and beyond
17. Biden's First Foreign Policy Speech: A Preview of Mistakes to Come?
18. US will not accept WHO's findings out of Wuhan investigation
19. As WHO coronavirus mission leaves empty-handed, China claims propaganda win
20. Leaders Should Prioritize Troops Over Weapons Amid Defense Spending Cuts, Former Officials Say
21. Biden's foreign policy diplomats sweep back to power
22. Major General Eldon Bargewell, a special operations legend
23. During the Vietnam War, the US created a highly classified unit that still influences modern special operations
24. The feds say he’s an extremist leader who directed rioters. He also had top-secret clearance and worked for the FBI, attorney says.
25. 50 Pro Tips for Strategists whether they're striving, struggling, or successful
26. Resourcing Irregular and Conventional Warfare Capabilities
1. George Shultz Showed U.S. Foreign Policy Is Strongest When We Combine Realism and Human Rights
TIME · by Robert D. Daplan · February 9, 2021
Conclusion:
“Realism never dies because it is about limits, constraints, and hard choices. Idealism never dies because ever since the Hebrew prophet Isaiah and the Greek tragedian Euripides it has appealed to the human spirit. In the creative tension between the two tendencies America finds its true reputational calling. That was the secret to winning the Cold War. As for our own era of great power struggles, it is partly a matter of recovering the quiet, unassuming example of George Shultz."
2. George Shultz Understood That Money Was Power
Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · February 8, 2021
Teaser: But by the late 1980s, the Cold War was ending on American terms, democracy was spreading like wildfire, and the U.S. was moving into a new era of economic primacy. Shultz made three signal contributions to this recovery.
3. After Vietnam, American Society’s Relationship with Its Military Was Badly Frayed. After Twenty Years of Post-9/11 Wars, It Is Again.
mwi.usma.edu · by Scott Cooper · February 10, 2021
Conclusion:
“Veterans need an audience that listens, an audience of civilians who must seek to understand—simply thanking veterans for their service and moving on is also an abrogation of responsibility. But veterans also need an audience that is critical. Perhaps the solution lies in the title of Mark Treanor’s novel, its significance revealed at the end as Marty reflects on “how all of us marched to the same quiet cadence of belief in each other and America and in the value of serving something bigger than ourselves.” His is a melancholy call to service and citizenship that asks us to acknowledge that we all owe our country something, and that each of us must do our part to create the kind of country and society we seek. More pointedly, A Quiet Cadence recognizes the fundamental reality that in the aftermath of Vietnam we swept the difficult experience under a rug, individually and collectively. As we shift our focus away from the post-9/11 wars, we shouldn’t make that mistake again.”
4. Bureaucratizing to Fight Extremism in the Military
warontherocks.com · by Doyle Hodges · February 10, 2021
The author begins making an unexpected argument using special operations and history: Quote: "Countering violent domestic extremism promises to be an even more challenging bureaucratic problem than enabling the success of special operations forces."
Conclusion:
“What type of bureaucratic organization is needed to address the problem? On one hand, raising the issue to the level of a Senate-confirmed position would communicate a strong commitment to addressing the problem. But such a move would also require legislation and mire the process in the politics of confirmation. A better answer may be to create an office with the institutional authority of a deputy assistant secretary of defense, which can be done by the secretary of defense without legislative action. Such an office, which would logically be located within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, would command the bureaucratic clout to move resource and demand responses from services and other agencies, while staying out of the current charged partisan political atmosphere.
The problem of extremists in the military is a serious subset of the problem of extremism and political violence in American society. As the events of Jan. 6 showed, participation in extremist violence by current and former military personnel undermines the foundations of public trust in the military. If Americans have reason to fear that the person to whom they have handed a gun may use it to violently advance an extremist cause, then American civil-military relations will move from focusing on “luxury goods” such as the balance of bureaucratic power between the Joint Staff and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, to focusing on existential questions related to the integrity and competence of the armed forces. Preventing this outcome demands a serious solution that can command lasting, serious resources.”
5. The Human Face of Nuclear Deterrence
warontherocks.com · by Usha Sahay · February 10, 2021
A fascinating essay with many interesting insights and historical anecdotes.
Example: "The American president probably did not know what Khrushchev had said about his first nuclear weapons briefing a few years earlier: “I couldn’t sleep for several days. Then I became convinced that we could never possibly use these weapons, and when I realized that, I was able to sleep again.” But lest anyone think this actually meant we could never possibly use these weapons, Khrushchev added, “all the same, we must be prepared.”
An interesting insight from Sir Lawrence Freedman: "Lawrence Freedman, a renowned nuclear scholar and author of the book Deterrence, told me that deterrence is psychologically discomforting because it relies on inaction rather than action. “You’re asking people to develop these weapons, man the systems,” he said. “And the idea that they can do this as some sort of elaborate charade is always going to be difficult. They’re always going to want — need — to have something to do in the event that the crisis comes.”
6. Army Special Operations School Drops 'III' Logo Adopted by Extremist Group
military.com · by Matthew Cox · February 9, 2021
Controversies for the medical group from the goat lab to extremists appropriating their symbols.
Excerpts:
"Certain aspects of that logo have a striking resemblance to the symbology of an extremist organization -- specifically the Roman numeral three with the Betsy Ross star circle, which was used by Trauma 3," Col. Matt Gomlack, chief of staff at the JFK SWCS, told Military.com.
Trauma 3 had used the symbol "way longer" than the Three Pecenters, which was formed in 2008, Gomlack said, describing how its military use goes back to the 1990s.
...
The command has also briefed all of its personnel on a list of 14 symbols that have been linked to extremist groups by the New York Police Department's Intelligence Bureau. The symbols range from the Nazi swastika to the Oath Keepers' symbol, which bears the far-right militia group's name on a gold and black tab resembling that of the Army Rangers.
The command released a statement late Friday to all of its personnel stating that the future wear or posting of "any of these symbols" could result in "military punishment."
"The command is doing two things: We are protecting our formation from potential misperceptions ... and two, we are also sending a message that extremism is not tolerated in the Department of Defense and certainly not in our organization." Gomlack said.
7. ‘The system worked as designed’ is bad news
Defense News · by Caroline Baxter · February 9, 2021
An "interesting" critique about the "Combat Cloth Face Covering, or CCFC."
Excerpts:
It took a full year for the service to design, approve and distribute a face mask — called a Combat Cloth Face Covering, or CCFC — for its soldiers, an effort that required an additional $43.5 million in contracts to provide temporary solutions. That comes out to about $45 per mask, if you assume every active-duty, National Guard and Reserve soldier received one. A pack of 20 N95 masks at Home Depot costs about $20.
And yet, the Army congratulated itself on the “expedited” timeline, compared to the 18- to 24-month procurement cycle such an effort would normally take.
“The system worked as designed,” tweeted a former Marine.
And that is precisely the problem. National security strategy is supposed to align ends and means.
Conclusion:
“There are two sides to the Army’s CCFC experience. On one side is the story of Army ingenuity — of finding ways to stay within the lines of the system while simultaneously bending it into efficiency. On the other side is a story of how, even when faced with a clear and present threat, these systems can only bend so far and so fast.
This presents us with a choice: Change the system or scope the threat list. One of these is easier than the other and can be accomplished if civilian leaders choose that path. The lives lost behoove them to do so.”
8. Air war against ISIS holds lessons for future battles
airforcetimes.com · by Todd South · February 9, 2021
The RAND report can be accessed here.
Excerpt: The report authors detail the 2014 to 2019 timeline of the Operation Inherent Resolve campaign in phases and case studies. Their analysis paints a picture of an air war that was critical in the defeat of ISIS, but that differed in many ways from recent counterinsurgency operations and brought home key areas that need improvement for future conflicts.
9. Biden to visit Pentagon hoping to shift from Trump turmoil
militarytimes.com · by Robert Burns and Lolita Baldor · February 10, 2021
This is going to be an interesting process: "Austin also is launching a broad review of how U.S. forces are positioned around the world. In announcing his “global force posture review” last week, he said it will assess the military “footprint, resources, strategy and missions.”
We have been through a lot of similar reviews for the last few decades. I am looking forward to seeing the results.
10. Lloyd Austin takes first steps to repair a battered Pentagon
When I see these headlines I wonder how the uniformed and long time civil servants feel about them. So did the uniformed military wrest civilian control from the civilian leadership over the past years?
Excerpts:
“Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has taken initial steps toward reasserting civilian control of the military, in a drive to energize a group that saw its power drain under the former president.
...
“Austin is inheriting a civil-military balance inside the building with a joint staff that is perhaps more powerful than it should be,” said Peter Feaver, a professor at Duke University and expert in civil-military relations. “Austin has to teach his team what best practices are and what are the norms ... they can’t be smug.”
11. LongShot: The DARPA Drone That Could Change Warfare
19fortyfive.com · by Caleb Larson · February 9, 2021
Seems like a very useful concept! But changing warfare? Those headlines always catch my eye (which of iis what they are designed to do).
Excerpts:
“DARPA explained the LongShort drone as a “novel UAV that can significantly extend engagement ranges, increase mission effectiveness, and reduce the risk to manned aircraft.”
Essentially DARPA wants to take away the risk from human pilots and transfer that to drones. “It is envisioned that LongShot will increase the survivability of manned platforms by allowing them to be at standoff ranges far away from enemy threats,” the DARPA announcement explained, “while an air-launched LongShot UAV efficiently closes the gap to take more effective missile shots.”
12. Military struggles to determine how many extremists are in the ranks
Stars and Stripes · by Missy Ryan · February 9, 2021
The first question is how do you define an extremist? This cannot be like pornography: "I will know it when I see it." We cannot screw this up or we will not only potentially catastrophically damage the military we will cause extremists organizations to gather not only more recruits but also increase "legitimacy" as mistakes in this effort will play right into the narratives of extremists organizations.
13. Blinken: ‘America is stronger with alliances’
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · February 9, 2021
Excerpts:
“If we do all of these things and all these things are within our control, we can engage China from a position of strength.”
The former diplomat — who grew up in Paris and speaks impeccable French, staunchly believes that the US should work with its allies and within international treaties and organizations — has come out strongly in regard to the Uyghur issue, calling them victims of an ongoing genocide.
Yet, these are words that make Beijing bristle with anger, and do little to advance “diplomacy” in the region.
“The president has been very clear that he wants to put … human rights and democracy back at the center of our foreign policy,” said Blinken.
“And so, whether it’s China or any other country where we have deep and serious concerns, this will be something that is front and center.”
14. Biden signals a ‘cold peace’ contest with China
asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · February 9, 2021
I guess "extreme competition" is the foreign policy phrase we will be using.
Key excerpts:
“Earlier, Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan described the Quad as “a foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific.”
“With our allies and partners in both Europe and Asia, we represent well more than half of the world’s economy,” said Sullivan during a conversation hosted by a Washington-based think tank in late-January.
He described the Quad and other alliance platforms as indispensable “leverage we need to be able to produce outcomes” in both constraining China and addressing other shared global challenges.”
15. The Great Firewall Cracked, Briefly. A People Shined Through.
The New York Times · by By Li Yuan · February 9, 2021
Excerpts:
“The Chinese government blocked the app Monday afternoon. I knew it was coming, and yet I still didn’t expect to feel so dismayed.
For that brief moment, people in China proved that they are as creative and well spoken as people who enjoy the freedom to express themselves. They lined up, sometimes for hours, to wait for their turns to speak. They argued for the rights of the government loyalists to speak despite their disagreements. They held many honest, sincere conversations, sometimes with tears and sometimes with laughter.
Those conversations helped illuminate why the Chinese government blocks free speech online in the first place. Those free-flowing exchanges threaten to debunk the caricatures that the state-controlled media often foists upon the Chinese people. The state media dismisses people like the Tiananmen protesters, pro-democracy advocates in Hong Kong or those in Taiwan who want the island to take a different path from the mainland.”
16. How China uses extensive spying operations to assert its global dominance: From India to Afghanistan, the US and beyond
opindia.com · February 9, 2021
A view from India.
(Note: OpIndia (a unit of Aadhyaasi Media And Content Services Private Limited) is a news and current affairs website. We publish opinion articles, analysis of issues, news reports (curated from various sources as well as original reporting) and fact-check articles. More here.
17. Biden's First Foreign Policy Speech: A Preview of Mistakes to Come?
The National Interest · by James Jay Carafano · February 8, 2021
I did not assess the speech in the same way. But I think we still have action yet to come.
But regardless of whether you agree with the President's Speech or Jim's analysis below, this excerpt should be pondered:
“Strategic leadership is a blend of rhetoric and action. For sure, soaring words matter. Who can forget Ronald Reagan telling Moscow to “tear down that wall”? The speech was unforgettable. Reagan’s oratory still rings because the wall came down. In contrast, former President Barack Obama gave a very well-received speech in Cairo to the Muslim world. Yet few remember a single word of it. That’s because there was no action to match the rhetoric. In fact, the region got worse in the aftermath of the speech. The Islamic State caliphate ran wild, building a terrorist enterprise the size of a country.
In the age of great-power competition, where the world doesn’t simply do what the United States asks, action must match rhetoric. Arguably, action matters even more than words, because America’s competitors don’t care what it has to say. They care about its actions. Donald Trump’s foreign policy is a case in point. His rhetoric was often out-of-tune to many in the world, but his actions safeguarded U.S. interests and were often spot on.”
18. US will not accept WHO's findings out of Wuhan investigation
The Korea Times · February 10, 2021
19. As WHO coronavirus mission leaves empty-handed, China claims propaganda win
The Washington Post · by Gerry Shih · February 10, 2021
Excerpts:
“Richard H. Ebright, a microbiologist at Rutgers University who has accused the WHO of bending to Chinese pressure and criticized Daszak for his apparent conflict of interest, said asking questions wasn't enough. (Daszak could not be immediately reached for comment Wednesday.)
"Any institution and nation seeking to clear its name would've moved quickly to make available all its databases of genetic sequences and strains, provided lab notes, records and private interviews with research, waste removal and janitorial staff," Ebright said. "None of that happened or was even requested" as part of the agreement to send experts to China.
Skeptical experts argue that records from the WIV should be analyzed closely because the institute collected nearly 300 bat coronaviruses from southwest China in the past decade, including two of the closest genetic relatives to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. These experts do not suggest that the virus was engineered to be a bioweapon.
20. Leaders Should Prioritize Troops Over Weapons Amid Defense Spending Cuts, Former Officials Say
defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber
Conclusion:
“With a declining defense budget seems inevitable, McCuser said there is no “easy button” for where to make cuts.
“I don't think there's low-hanging fruit,” she said. “I think that the department really went through that years ago under the Budget Control Act, and there's not going to be a way to absorb big decreases in the budget without a lot of impact. And what John and I are proposing is that we learn from the way this has been done in the past so that we don't expose the force to a lot of risk.”
Leaders Should Prioritize Troops Over Weapons Amid Defense Spending Cuts, Former Officials Say
There’s no “easy button” for finding items to cut the budget.”
21. Biden's foreign policy diplomats sweep back to power
Axios · by Lachlan Markay
22. Major General Eldon Bargewell, a special operations legend
sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · February 8, 2021
Yes he was.
23. During the Vietnam War, the US created a highly classified unit that still influences modern special operations
Business Insider · by Stavros Atlamazoglou
Yes, there is still so much we can learn from MAC-V SOG. And it is just not for JSOC.
24. The feds say he’s an extremist leader who directed rioters. He also had top-secret clearance and worked for the FBI, attorney says.
The Washington Post · Katie Shepherd · February 9, 2021
So again, how do we root out "extremists? How do we define extremists?
But there is always more to the story:
“Those details were revealed in a motion filed Monday asking a judge to release Caldwell from custody, citing his long military career and ability to pass vetting for the high-security clearance. His attorney also said that Caldwell has disabilities from his military service that would have prevented him from storming the Capitol.
The FBI did not immediately return an inquiry late Monday about Caldwell’s past employment status. Caldwell’s filing, which says he was paid as a GS-12, does not explain how he could have served as an FBI section chief while also being classified at a significantly lower federal pay scale than typically comes with such a position.
The claims about Caldwell’s high-security clearance and FBI service add to concerns about extremism in the military and law enforcement. The indictments against numerous alleged rioters with military and police connections have led local agencies to open investigations and the Pentagon to order each military branch to dedicate time to addressing the problem in the coming months.”
The feds say he’s an extremist leader who directed rioters. He also had top-secret clearance and worked for the FBI, attorney says.
25. 50 Pro Tips for Strategists whether they're striving, struggling, or successful
Some useful tips. Some worthy of further discussion in PME classes.
26. Resourcing Irregular and Conventional Warfare Capabilities
realcleardefense.com · by Charles Barham
We must accept that political warfare is an inherent part of and the major method of operation in great power competition. To that end we must accept that irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare and resource accordingly.
Excerpt:
“Given finite resources, DoD and specifically the Services, face tough decisions regarding the allocation of those resources. The Services focus on warfighting and increasing the lethality of the force, while harvesting the resources of organizations and or capabilities that do not directly contribute to this increase in lethality as bill payers. For example, the Army had planned to shutter the Peace Keeping and Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI). This move appears to be a result of some in Army leadership positions laser focused on a return to peer competition using largely conventional ways and means. This position contrasts with that of other Army leaders who support the future requirement for a counterinsurgency (COIN), specifically the stability component of COIN, as a future multi-domain operations warfare requirement. Even in great power competition, USG adversaries will likely not fight the United States head-to-head. They will use other countries and even non-State actors (violent extremist organizations, trans-national criminal organizations, etc.) as proxies or attempt to destabilize USG partner nations. Institutions such as the PKSOI exist to provide DoD leadership and Joint Force Commanders with a broader range of options to employ in the protection of USG interests.”
------------
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."
- Bertrand Russell
"I do not claim to have any developed or sophisticated views in political philosophy, but I think that one of the lessons of the last few hundred years of history is that the greatest threat to human prosperity and well-being is fanaticism and intolerance, even in the name of apparently laudable goals."
- Tim Crane
"Our faith in democracy, personal freedoms and human 'rights', and the other comforting prescriptions of the humanist liberal credo stem from the supremacy of maritime over territorial power. Pragmatists may deplore this as crude determinism, as another vain attempt to construct a general theory of history. They should reflect on the sort of political philosophy and structures we might now adhere to had the Habsburgs, Bourbons, Bonaparte, Hitler, Stalin or his heirs prevailed in the titanic world struggles of the past four centuries."
- Peter Padfield
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. It’s Time to Get Real on North Korea
2. Opinion | Covid helped isolate North Korea in a way sanctions never could. What now?
3. South Korea Restarts Cost-Sharing Negotiations With Washington
4. North Korea Uses Military Holiday to Shake Down Citizens for Supplies
5. Kim Jong Un’s Congress Report: More Economic and Social Controls on the Horizon
6. UN experts say North Korea still modernizing nuclear arsenal
7. Seoul-Tokyo relations at lowest, affects 3-way cooperation with U.S.
8. Insight into Kim Jae Ryong and Oh Il Jong's new appointments, and Kim Yo Jong's current status
9. Report: Seoul official denies Vladivostok meeting covered power plant
10. UN Finds Torture, Forced Labor Still Rampant in North Korean Prisons
11. S. Korea to keep striving to improve ties with Japan: NSC
12. U.S. will move on N. Korea after bringing allies to same page: Price
13. N.K. leader specified policy direction for inter-Korean, external matters
14. Central Committee conducts inspection of political and security officers in two military units
15. 'North Korea low on daily necessities after shutting down borders'
16. [Kim Seong-kon] The Divided States of America vs. divided Korea
17. What will Pyongyang expect from return of Chung-Suh team?
1. It’s Time to Get Real on North Korea
usip.org · by Markus Garlauskas· February 10, 2021
A nice piece from our former NIO for Korea.
My recommendation is:
First answer these five questions:
What do we want to achieve in Korea?
What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
Second, determine sound strategic assumptions upon which to base policy and strategy.
Any effective approach toward North Korea should be based on two new assumptions. The first recognizes that Kim will give up his nuclear program only when he concludes that the cost to him and his regime is too great – that is, when he believes possession of nuclear weapons threatens his survival. But external pressure alone, although important, will almost certainly fail to create the right cost-benefit ratio. It is the threat from the North Korean people that is most likely to cause Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.26 As former CIA analyst Jung Pak of the Brookings Institution has argued, “Kim fears his people more than he fears the United States. The people are his most proximate threat to the regime.”27 The ROK-U.S. alliance has yet to adopt a strategy with this in mind.
Kim, the DPRK military, and the North Korean elite must be made to recognize that keeping nuclear weapons poses an internal threat to their survival. External threats and actions alone will not suffice, though they are important. In addition, if these actors choose not to relinquish their nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons, a maximum pressure 2.0 campaign should threaten to weaken the regime.
The second new assumption is that Kim will continue to employ a strategy based on subversion of South Korea; coercion and extortion of the international community to gain political and economic concessions; and ultimately the use of force to unify the peninsula under the domination of the North, thereby ensuring the survival of the Kim family regime. A key element of his strategy is to drive a wedge between South Korea and the United States. Kim’s strategy can best be described as a “long con” whereby he extracts as much as possible for the regime while conceding little to nothing and preparing to achieve unification under his control. Kim is pursuing a strategy established long ago by his grandfather and improved by his father.
This assumption requires the United States and South Korea to prepare for the possibility that Kim might refuse to relinquish his weapons of mass destruction (WMD). This assumption is buttressed by a U.S. intelligence estimate maintaining that he is unlikely to denuclearize. This cannot be discounted and must be factored into a new strategy.
And, one further assumption to illustrate my personal bias: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
Third: determine the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests in Northeast Asia.
The answers to the above five questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)
Fourth bring our relevant allies into the analysis and policy and strategy development.
If we do that I guarantee we will be able to get real on north Korea:
The bottom line is a new strategy must be built on deterrence, defense, denuclearization, and resolution of the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice Agreement) by employing a superior form of political warfare. It should consist of 5 lines of effort: comprehensive diplomacy, resolute alliance military strength, pressure through enforced sanctions, cyber defense and offensive operations and information and influence activities to target the regime elite , the second-tier leadership, and the population to undermine the legitimacy of the regime and separate the Kim family regime from the elite and the 2d tier leadership as well as to prepare the population for unification.
As part of this strategy the Alliance must take a human rights upfront approach because human rights are not only a moral imperative, they are a national security issue. Kim Jong-un denies the human rights of the Korean people living in the north so that he can remain in power. Human rights cannot be sacrificed for the pursuit of denuclearization negotiations. We should also remember that when we talk about the north’s nuclear program it reinforces regime legitimacy. However, we expose human rights abuses and crimes against humanity and inform the Korean people in the north about their basic human rights it is an existential threat to the regime.
A political strategy alone will not defeat the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy. We need a superior form of political warfare.
A wise Korea hand once said to me that just about everything that could be tried with north Korea has been tried and all we can do is keep repackaging previous actions in new ways to try to achieve some kind of progress.
But we need to thoroughly assess the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. and then develop a new strategy that will result in a new acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK.US alliance interests.
A key initial effort of the Biden administration should be a convening of the MOFA-State strategy working group and a review of alliance strategies should be conducted with a focus on assessing the fundamental assumptions upon which ROK and US policies and strategies are based. The Moon Administration has been laboring under the erroneous assumption that Kim Jong-un supports President Moon’s vision of peace and reconciliation and that there can be north-South engagement on reciprocal terms. A thorough analysis and understanding of the Kim family regime will reveal the Kim family regimes’ strategy is to use political warfare to subvert the South Korea nation and when conditions are right to use force to unify the peninsula under northern rule. Basing policy and strategy on the Moon administration’s assumptions is the path to failure on the Korean peninsula.
Again, there is no silver bullet to the north Korea problem. This is why we need to focus on the long-term solution to the security and prosperity challenges on the Korean peninsula. That is to focus on resolving the Korean question,' the unnatural division of the peninsula.” Solve that and the nuclear issues and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will be fixed. The question to ask is not what worked and what did not, but whether our action advanced our interests and moved us closer to the acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests?
The way ahead is deterrence, defense, denuclearization and solving the “Korea question” (e.g., unification) with the understanding that denuclearization of the north will only happen when we resolve the Korea question.
2. Opinion | Covid helped isolate North Korea in a way sanctions never could. What now?
NBC News · by Victor Cha· February 10, 2021
Dr Cha is right - but it is not simply COVID. It is really the policy decisions by Kim Jong-un to not just fight COVID but that use COVID as an excuse to further crack down on the population and ensure maximum control over all aspects of north Korea. It is Kim Jong-un who has further isolated the north in ways sanctions never could.
This is probably the reason why Kim has refrained from providing a "welcome gift" (provocation) to the new Biden administration,
But the most important statement from Dr. Cha is this: "Some help needs to come soon; otherwise, the regime could face internal challenges that even those with confidence in its resilience may not be able to dismiss."
I would say help can come some - there are countries that want to provide it starting with South Korea. However the question is will Kim accept help?
And if he does accept help we need to be observant for the indications and warnings of "internal challenges" and the potential for implosion or explosion. We need to dust off contingency plans.
3. South Korea Restarts Cost-Sharing Negotiations With Washington
thediplomat.com · by Mitch Shin · February 9, 2021
I am hopeful that these SMA negotiations will continue after the lunar New Year this week and I am optimistic they will successfully conclude relatively quickly. I recommend the negotiators on both sides work closely with their public diplomacy/public affairs professional to have an information plan ready for immediate execution that shows how a shift from a transaction alliance perspective to one of shared values, interests, and strategy is a good thing for the American and Korean people. They must craft an effective supporting information plan to explain why this is good for their publics.
4. North Korea Uses Military Holiday to Shake Down Citizens for Supplies
rfa.org · by Jieun Kim
Two points - the corruption of the systems is well known and this exploitation of the people is nothing new. But in the context of the current situation it bears watching because if the military is suffering from shortages the people are suffering more due to the increased population and resources control measures. And there is no safety valve of the markets because of the pressure put on them, the use of foreign currency, and the shutdown of the border with China.
And again we should be grateful for the kind of reporting Radio Free Asia is able to do with its sources inside north Korea.
5. Kim Jong Un’s Congress Report: More Economic and Social Controls on the Horizon
38north.org · by Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein · February 9, 2021
Hard to believe the regime could impose even more control. But it is attempts to impose such control that could cause the regime to lose control. This bears watching.
6. UN experts say North Korea still modernizing nuclear arsenal
AP · by Edith M. Lederer · February 9, 2021
The all-purpose sword is ... well ... all-purpose and especially useful in supporting the treasured sword.
7. Seoul-Tokyo relations at lowest, affects 3-way cooperation with U.S.
This is going to have to be a part of the Biden Korea policy review. There will have to be a realistic and frank assessment of ROK-Japan relations and franks discussions with both. If we cannot engender sufficient ROK-Japan cooperation on national security issues we are going to adjust and adapt our strategy.
As I have stated many times the only way we are going to see an improved relationship is through decisive leadership by Moon and Suga. They both must pledge to place national security and national prosperity above historical issues while trying to manage them effectively. They have to stand up to their political bases and put the security and prosperity of their nations first.
8. Insight into Kim Jae Ryong and Oh Il Jong's new appointments, and Kim Yo Jong's current status
dailynk.com· by Ha Yoon Ah · February 10, 2021
The important point is in the subtitle. I think we all know and understand this but Kim Yo-jong likely remains powerful as she is possibly the only person Kim Jong-un trusts.
9. Report: Seoul official denies Vladivostok meeting covered power plant
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · February 9, 2021
I hope he doth not protest too much. If the allegations are true, this will put some strain on the alliance and may have political/election implications for Moon's party.
10. UN Finds Torture, Forced Labor Still Rampant in North Korean Prisons
hrw.org · by Lina Yoon · February 9, 2021
Human rights is a national security issue as well as a moral imperative. The Kim family regime must be held accountable as it denies the human rights of the Korean people in order to ensure the survival of the regime.
11. S. Korea to keep striving to improve ties with Japan: NSC
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 10, 2021
Some good news. But actions speak louder than words.
12. U.S. will move on N. Korea after bringing allies to same page: Price
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 10, 2021
This is most important. For us to have an effective policy and strategy we must have sufficient alignment with our allies. We need to conduct the policy review at deliberate speed and get it done right and not in haste. And it needs to be a long term strategy. This of course is problematic because the Moon administration needs to see short terms progress and results as it heads into the election cycle in the fall. The US and the ROK are operating on different timelines and that must be resolved as we move forward.
13. N.K. leader specified policy direction for inter-Korean, external matters
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 10, 2021
The direction should be up. There is no where to go but up given that the regime is at rock bottom.
14. Central Committee conducts inspection of political and security officers in two military units
dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Joo · February 9, 2021
This could be a significant indicator. We should keep in mind the nKPA has three "chains of control" - the traditional military chains of command from general to private, the political chain of control, and the security chain of control. This report indicates a weakening of the party control.
One of the indicators we should be watching for will be defections/escapes by small military units. This will be an indication of weakening of the chains of control.
15. 'North Korea low on daily necessities after shutting down borders'
The Korea Times · February 9, 2021
There is no safety valve or escape mechanism for the Korean people living in the north. The black markets and later the 400+ allowed markets have always been the safety valve ensuring resilience among the Korean people. But the crackdowns on all trade and markets are going to severely impact the people.
But we should never forget the reason for the suffering are the deliberate decisions of Kim Jong-un.
16. [Kim Seong-kon] The Divided States of America vs. divided Korea
koreaherald.com · by Kim Seong-kon · February 9, 2021
An interesting OpEd comparing the divisions the ROK and US.
17. What will Pyongyang expect from return of Chung-Suh team?
The Korea Times · February 10, 2021
Pyongyang certainly hopes for the friction in the ROK/US alliance caused by these minister (and at MOU Lee as well)
Conclusion: Even before taking office Tuesday, Chung Eui-yong has been making a series of remarks on North Korea policies, such as Kim's intention to denuclearize his country. Those comments triggered concerns about possible confrontation with the new U.S. administration which has launched a review of the diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang during the previous Trump administration.
---------
"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts."
- Bertrand Russell
"I do not claim to have any developed or sophisticated views in political philosophy, but I think that one of the lessons of the last few hundred years of history is that the greatest threat to human prosperity and well-being is fanaticism and intolerance, even in the name of apparently laudable goals."
- Tim Crane
"Our faith in democracy, personal freedoms and human 'rights', and the other comforting prescriptions of the humanist liberal credo stem from the supremacy of maritime over territorial power. Pragmatists may deplore this as crude determinism, as another vain attempt to construct a general theory of history. They should reflect on the sort of political philosophy and structures we might now adhere to had the Habsburgs, Bourbons, Bonaparte, Hitler, Stalin or his heirs prevailed in the titanic world struggles of the past four centuries."
- Peter Padfield
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. ‘All means short of war’: How China will ‘break’ Taiwan
2. Chinese flocked to audio app Clubhouse for a taste of the open Internet. It didn’t last.
3. A la recherche du Shultz perdu (tributes on the passing of George Shultz)\
4. Remembering George Shultz… “You’ve got your whole life ahead of you” | Spirit of America
5. WSJ News Exclusive | Capitol Riot Warnings Weren’t Acted On as System Failed
6. Hacker tries to poison water supply of Florida city
7. IntelBrief: The State of Global Terrorism and Counterterrorism - The Soufan Center
8. Why U.S. Troops Should Remain in Afghanistan
9. Thoughts on the Unfolding U.S.-Chinese Competition: Washington’s Policy Towards Beijing Enters Its Next Phase
10. How the United States Lost to Hackers
11. The Strategic Offensive Against the CCP
12. How to deprogram America's extremists
13. Hicks Takes Reins as Deputy Secretary of Defense
14. Aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt train together in South China Sea
15. Biden quietly nixes Trump-era rule combating Chinese Communist-funded 'propaganda' centers
16. Tough to defend against ‘flying IEDs’: US general
17. Xinhua Commentary: "America is back," or simply swinging backward?
18. National Security Memorandum 2—What’s new in Biden’s NSC Structure?
19. Excerpt from ‘The Princess Spy’
1. ‘All means short of war’: How China will ‘break’ Taiwan
news.com.au · February 8, 2021
Fascinating. This reads like how a combination of Kennan acolytes, Boydian disciples, and special operations personnel would devise a strategy for the PRC to take Taiwan. The "all means sort of war scenario" is summarized on page four of this report that is referenced in the article here.
2. Chinese flocked to audio app Clubhouse for a taste of the open Internet. It didn’t last.
The Washington Post · February 8, 2021
I was not familiar with Clubhouse. A colleague informed me that Clubhouse uses Agora, a Chinese app, to power it.
3. A la recherche du Shultz perdu (tributes on the passing of George Shultz)
Two tributes that we should ponder about a great American.
4. Remembering George Shultz… “You’ve got your whole life ahead of you” | Spirit of America
spiritofamerica.org · February 8, 2021
5. WSJ News Exclusive | Capitol Riot Warnings Weren’t Acted On as System Failed
WSJ · by Rachael Levy, Dan Frosch and Sadie Gurman
Excerpts:
“The Office of Intelligence and Analysis, or I&A, DHS’s nerve center for monitoring online threats, battled politics and shifting demands in the months leading up to Jan. 6, officials said.
...
An I&A spokeswoman said the changes were made “to correct for the inappropriate intelligence activities” last year. She said the branch strengthened its intelligence collection process and didn’t reduce attention on domestic extremism post-Portland. She said that the agency issued a Dec. 30 report about the heightened threat environment related to the election, though it didn’t mention Jan. 6.
Stephanie Dobitsch, an experienced international terrorism official with I&A, shared an assessment similar to the Dec. 30 report at a meeting with senior DHS officials, including from the Secret Service, around that time.
I&A didn’t warn about Jan. 6. because previous election certifications by Congress hadn’t seen trouble, senior I&A officials lacked specific, credible intelligence and DHS hadn’t designated the event a “national special security event,” I&A officials said after Jan. 6.
As the mob attacked the Capitol, DHS officials emailed one another to stay abreast of events. Ms. Dobitsch asked for information on the rioters. She sent the email at 2:26 p.m., as rioters breached the inside of the Capitol.
Three weeks after the riot, on Jan. 27, DHS officials sent out the department’s first national terrorism bulletin about violent domestic extremists. The bulletin said that such extremists, driven by a range of issues, are prone to more violence in the coming months. It warned that some might use the Jan. 6 attack as inspiration.”
6. Hacker tries to poison water supply of Florida city
Here it comes. Right out of Unrestricted Warfare. I am not saying the Chinese did this but it is right out of their playbook. And more groups and nation-states have likely read and studied this book than just the Chinese.
Excerpt from Unrestricted Warfare. Note the quote of an FBI agent. I wonder how the 1996 President's Committee on Protection of Key Infrastructure of the US has evolved over the years. Note how the Chinese use our own words and writings.
“It is worth noting that following the "Information Warfare" ordinance of the American military, which placed enemy nation armies or world opponents on a par with non-approved users, inside personnel, terrorists, non-national organizations, and foreign intelligence organizations as the six sources of network threats, hackers with national or military backgrounds had already begun to reveal clues. [8] This not only greatly strengthened the battle formations of the hackers so that the actions of the disbanded and straggling hackers quickly escalated into national (network tyrant) actions, it also resulted in the increasing enlargement of the internet threat faced by all nations (including those nations with national or military hackers), and it becoming increasingly difficult to predict and guard against. The only thing which could be predicted was that the damage of this type of threat to the large network nation of the United States would certainly be greater than for other nations. Faced with theses prospects, even J. Saiteerdou [as printed 1049 3676 1422 6757], who is responsible for the investigation of computer crimes in the FBI of the United States, said with both self-confidence and worry: "Give me ten carefully chosen hackers, and within 90 days I would then be able to have this nation lay down its arms and surrender."
When compared with "network bandits" -- these network terrorist hackers -- the terror of the bombs of bin Laden are closer to the traditional terrorism in legacy. However, this does not prevent us from considering him to be within the ranks of new terrorism. “
7. IntelBrief: The State of Global Terrorism and Counterterrorism - The Soufan Center
thesoufancenter.org · February 9, 2021
Conclusion: Nearly two decades after the attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States, the global terrorist landscape looks more diffuse and diverse, with the centralized core of transnational groups replaced with networks, regional affiliates, and more ideologically diverse violent groups. As communities continue to reel from social, economic, and personal losses due to the pandemic, violent extremist groups can also further exacerbate frustrations with policymakers and practitioners due to inadequate government resources in the face of soaring societal and economic losses from the pandemic. However, counterterrorism officials are not starting with a blank slate – there are over two decades of lessons learned and infrastructure developed. The key imperative will be to ensure these are fit for purpose to address current threats unfolding against a very different geopolitical, social, and economic backdrop.
8. Why U.S. Troops Should Remain in Afghanistan
realcleardefense.com · by Rafi Khetab
Five national security reasons why.
But I never expected Dr. King to be invoked in this argument.
Conclusion:
“America is the Afghan people’s Good Samaritan. As Dr. King said, “nothing would be more tragic than to stop at this point in Memphis.” Afghanistan, in its current situation of dire need, is America’s second Memphis. If Dr. King were alive today, he would say, "we have got to see it through," and call on President Biden to keep a minimum deterrent footprint of hard and soft power in Afghanistan until the mission is complete.”
9. Thoughts on the Unfolding U.S.-Chinese Competition: Washington’s Policy Towards Beijing Enters Its Next Phase
warontherocks.com · by Eric Sayers · February 9, 2021
A useful overview with some interesting analysis and perspectives.
Conclusion:
“The months ahead will see a slow rollout of Biden’s China policy as the team continues to staff up and review existing policy. Early signs of support for Taiwan, a continuation of maritime presence in the Western Pacific, a focus on China’s human rights record, and clear and direct messaging from the State Department are encouraging. Biden also singled China out in his first major foreign policy speech as America’s “most serious competitor” and insisted that his administration will engage in “extreme competition” with Beijing. There have also been stumbles, including the administration’s inconsistent signaling on the Huawei threat. However, just like the Truman-Eisenhower-Kennedy early years of the U.S.-Soviet competition, it appears for now that the Biden team is prepared to adopt the same macro-level approach to Beijing as the Trump administration while adopting their own priorities and methods to address the challenge. Republicans on Capitol Hill should be prepared to support the spirit of this agenda while offering thoughtful criticism when warranted and continuing to expand the successful bipartisan legislative agenda of 2018 to 2020. For their part, the Biden administration should expect that Democrats in Congress won’t shy away from rigorous and public oversight of their decision-making. Policy differences will not fade away — nor should analysts want them too — but the most successful China policy for the United States will be one where the two parties complement one other’s strengths and find ways to disagree without being disagreeable.”
10. How the United States Lost to Hackers
The New York Times · by Nicole Perlroth· February 6, 2021
11. The Strategic Offensive Against the CCP
Some sound and provocative recommendations.
Excerpts:
“Create Strategic Depth
The U.S. and its partners and allies make up to 50% of the world’s trading capacity. This is a big stick.
The U.S. should leverage the existing international organizations and create new ones to hold China accountable to the rules, which would level the playing field and slow Chinese expansion. The Paris Climate Agreement can be a vehicle for raising the costs of doing business in China. China, for ill or good, has become the world leader in renewable energy. A potential future problem is that China is vertically integrating the supply chains, controlling costs, and given the CCPs desire for leadership within the Paris framework, could control global environmental policies. Make no mistake that this would be to the U.S.’ detriment. The U.S. would become the dirty producer of coal and oil, a position that some backward-looking nationalists would attempt to sell as a benefit.
The U.S. should work to strengthen the World Trade Organization so it can become the anvil its creators wanted it to be. There are problems, not least the veto power that any one country can wield. This has allowed the CCP to keep the organization in line, defanged from any ruling that would hurt China. Hence, the worst policy the Trump administration proffered was its war against the WTO. In 2019, Trump blocked any new appointments to the WTO’s Appellate Body, which governs the WTO’s dispute settlement function. Under the Trump administration, the U.S. vetoed naming any new members to the appellate board, a critical body that adjudicates trade disputes. Reform is needed, but the WTO is the organization the West can use to curb China, given its mercantilist policies.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership must be immediately revived. The RCEP gives Beijing a big stick to herd what it will no doubt see as unfaithful bureaucracies but the RCEP has none of the constraints on moral imperatives like labor and environmental standards the U.S. led TTP had. The U.S. must provide a safe haven where those countries can turn once the gilt fades from their erstwhile economic overlords. Given the poor track record of Trump’s limited ‘trade war’, with China, it will be a heavy lift for the Biden administration to revamp a real economic competition with China. However, combined with a renewed focus on information warfare, an economic strategy that weans the global supply chain from the CCP can impose disproportionate costs on the CCP. More importantly, it must be done to reverse the strategic asymmetry.
12. How to deprogram America's extremists
Axios · by Kyle Daly
Another "Marshall Plan" analogy.
Excerpt:
“The U.S. needs a "Marshall Plan against domestic extremism," Daniel Koehler, director of the German Institute on Radicalization and De-radicalization Studies, told Axios.
13. Hicks Takes Reins as Deputy Secretary of Defense
defense.gov · by Jim Garamone
14. Aircraft carriers USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt train together in South China Sea
Stars and Stripes· by Deidre Marsac
I wonder how often two of our aircraft carriers train together? Certainly not often in the South China Sea.
15. Biden quietly nixes Trump-era rule combating Chinese Communist-funded 'propaganda' centers
I wonder why this is not being more widely reported in the mainstream media?
16. Tough to defend against ‘flying IEDs’: US general
asiatimes.com · by Dave Makichuk · February 8, 2021
I think it is only a matter of time before this gets adopted as a major terrorist tool.
17. Xinhua Commentary: "America is back," or simply swinging backward?
Chinese propaganda criticising the US.
18. National Security Memorandum 2—What’s new in Biden’s NSC Structure?
lawfareblog.com · February 8, 2021
A useful tutorial on the new structure of the Biden NSC.
19. Excerpt from ‘The Princess Spy’
militarytimes.com · by Larry Loftis · February 9, 2021
Some history for today.
Another book for the to-read list. I just ordered the Kindle today
----------------
"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
- Isaac Asimov
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"If you aren't going all the way, why go at all?"
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Between Seoul and Sole Purpose: How the Biden Administration Could Assure South Korea and Adapt Nuclear Posture
2. NK leader blasts self-protectionism in assembly
3. Iran and North Korea Resumed Cooperation on Missiles, UN Says
4. Trump's failure is Biden's chance on North Korea
5. N. Korea continues wintertime drills, no unusual moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS
6. North Korean hackers stole more than $300 million to pay for nuclear weapons, says confidential UN report
7. New FM confident about coordinating with U.S. over N.K. nuke issues
8. New foreign minister beats drum of peace with North
9. Ministry hopes for early resumption of Kaesong complex as it marks anniversary of shutdown
10. S. Korea's top nuke envoy asks for Russia to play role in advancing peninsula peace efforts
11. Seoul's calls for concessions to N. Korea may create tension with US: CRS
12. Reports: North, South Korea officials secretly met in Vladivostok in 2019
1. Between Seoul and Sole Purpose: How the Biden Administration Could Assure South Korea and Adapt Nuclear Posture
warontherocks.com · by Toby Dalton · February 9, 2021
Very interesting alliance analysis and a very sobering conclusion:
“The potential for a future South Korean nuclear weapons program is not new, though the stresses on U.S. security alliances as a primary means of preventing future proliferation are greater now. After four years of Trump's alliance policies, and in light of deep American political polarization, there are undeniable and growing incentives for U.S. allies to begin to hedge against a perceived decline in American credibility to carry through on security commitments. Allied hedging could drive efforts to strengthen defense capabilities independent of the United States, which may intrinsically help ease alliance anxieties. Yet, it could also cause U.S. allies to demand ever more nuclear signals of assurance in ways that complicate U.S. efforts to deter adversaries while avoiding conflict commitment traps or aggravating regional security dilemmas. South Korea is an important test case for the Biden administration to strike this balance. It is unlikely to be the only, or the last, such case for Washington to manage.”
2. NK leader blasts self-protectionism in assembly
koreaherald.com · by Kim So-hyun · February 9, 2021
I guess Kim Jong-un is railing against his own "deep state." Or maybe bureaucracies create the same problems everywhere.
Excerpts:
“Kim "sharply denounced" the passiveness and self-protectionism shown by state agencies as they set their goals, and the participants "seriously blamed themselves for failing to meet the high expectations of the party and the people," the KCNA said.
Calling for strong investment in the metalworking and chemicals industry, which he said were the "centric ring of the people's economy," Kim demanded expansion of steel materials and chemical fertilizer production, and set this year's targets for railroad transport, construction materials, light industries and commerce.”
3. Iran and North Korea Resumed Cooperation on Missiles, UN Says
Bloomberg · by David Wainer · February 8, 2021
Resumed? What evidence has there been that it ever halted? I think a more appropriate question for Iran and north Korea is along the lines of "when did you stop beating your wife?"
I will defer to those who know a lot more about north Korean proliferation to Iran (e.g., Dr, Bruce Bechtol). But let me make a few points (which I have learned from Bruce). And a key point Bruce has drilled into me is that if you see it in north Korea you will eventually see it in Iran.
4. Trump's failure is Biden's chance on North Korea
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 9, 2021
More from Moon Chung-in, Do we have talks for talks sake? What is the long terms strategy? What are the fundamental assumptions? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, sustain, and advance ROK/US alliance interests? And are we really going to base a strategy on Moon's assumption that Kim Jong-un wants to denuclearize and is willing to negotiate sincerely to do so?
What fantasy novel is this derived from?
5. N. Korea continues wintertime drills, no unusual moves ahead of late leader's birthday: JCS
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 9, 2021
Good to see it acknowledged that north Korea is conducting its annual winter training cycle even while it criticizes the alliance and while those within the alliance would be willing to negotiate away ROK/US combined readiness training in the naive hope that the north will respond favorably (while it brings its forces to the. highest state of readiness at the optimal attack time in March).
6. North Korean hackers stole more than $300 million to pay for nuclear weapons, says confidential UN report
CNN · by Richard Roth and Joshua Berlinger
Anyone surprised by the regime's use of its "all purpose sword." I am happy to see the UN panel of experts is willing to expose this.
7. New FM confident about coordinating with U.S. over N.K. nuke issues
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · February 9, 2021
I will be frank, Mr. Foreign Minister. If you are unwilling to address the vast gap in strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime coordination is going to be difficult.
8. New foreign minister beats drum of peace with North
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Sarah Kim
Unfortunately, the pursuit of "peace at any cost" will not ensure the security of the Republic of Korea.
9. Ministry hopes for early resumption of Kaesong complex as it marks anniversary of shutdown
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 9, 2021
Is this another fantasy? Notwithstanding Kim Yo-jong's order for the destruction of the liaison building last summer, we should also remember why the KIC is so important to Kim Jong-un - it resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars going directly to the royal court economy of the Kim family regime.
10. S. Korea's top nuke envoy asks for Russia to play role in advancing peninsula peace efforts
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 9, 2021
Likely a pro forma request or does it indicate a shift in South Korean policy? (I think not).
11. Seoul's calls for concessions to N. Korea may create tension with US: CRS
koreaherald.com · February 9, 2021
The most excellent Congressional Research Service gets it. I am most concerned that this is the biggest problem for the alliance (the assumptions about the nature and objective of the KFR).
Here is a link to the CRS report. This short routine two-page report (updated regularly) provides a very useful summary of the key issues in the alliance.
The key point from the report: "Bilateral difficulties could surface, however, over North Korea policy. Moon's government favors easing sanctions against Pyongyang, a stance that could create tensions with Washington."
12. Reports: North, South Korea officials secretly met in Vladivostok in 2019
upi.com· February 8, 2021
north-South secret meetings are not unusual. There is a history of them.
---------
"Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent."
- Isaac Asimov
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
"If you aren't going all the way, why go at all?"
- Joe Namath
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korea's view on North Korea nuclear issue may cause friction with US
2. North Korea's human rights most divisive issue for South Korea, US
3. The man with a plan for Korean Peninsula peace (Moon Chung-in)
4. [INTERVIEW] Chinese envoy says 'anti-China' grouping will cause confrontation (South Korea and the Quad - a warning)
5. Biden's NK policy review
6. US needs Korea policy reset
7. Korean students at Harvard demand professor's apology over controversial claims on comfort women
8. Moon’s Nixon moment
9. S. Korea to develop indigenous long-range radar to boost air defense capabilities
10. FM Kang leaves office after years of daunting diplomatic tasks
11. North Korea conducts lectures on “squashing anti-socialist” acts
12. Four people in a wooden boat disappear from waters off Ryongyon County
13. N.K. paper calls for military role in advancing economy on army founding anniversary
14. Two minor natural quakes hit N. Korea's eastern region: KMA
15. Acting U.S. ambassador highlights strong bilateral ties in first tweet
16. Marvel reveals new Korean hero 'Taegukgi'
1. South Korea's view on North Korea nuclear issue may cause friction with US
The Korea Times · February 8, 2021
It is all about the assumptions of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. The ROK and US must get their strategic assumptions sufficiently aligned.
2. North Korea's human rights most divisive issue for South Korea, US
The Korea Times · by Kang Seung-woo · February 8, 2021
Again, I hate to beat the horse more dead. Human rights would not be a source of alliance friction if the allies could sufficiently align their strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
One thing both the Moon and Biden administrations should do is appoint special envoys for north Korean human rights.
3. The man with a plan for Korean Peninsula peace (Moon Chung-in)
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 8, 2021
Moon Chung-in:
“Perhaps unsurprisingly, many Pyongyangologists get it wrong. Most notably, a belief persisted among some, from the early 1990s up to the Barack Obama presidency, that North Korea would implode all by itself.
One member of the community never held that belief: Moon Chung-in. But the South Korean academic towers above the crowd for other reasons.
No man has had a bigger policy influence upon the three liberal South Korean presidents who have chosen to engage the Kims than Moon.
He believes he is the only South Korean who has attended every one of the presidential-level inter-Korean summits: In 2000, 2007 and 2018. At those events, he rubbed shoulders with the mysterious and often-demonized figures whose names light up global headlines: Kim Jong Il, Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong.”
I disagree with most everything Moon Chung-un says and stands for but he makes some important points in this part one interview. Some examples:
“He admits that many consider him a “liberal idealist or a North Korean sympathizer” but describes himself as “a progressive realist.” “Morality and law are beautiful, but we are stuck with reality,” he said. “My argument is we should start with the Korean reality.”
...
That reality is a nuclear armed – and very stable – North Korea. “Kim Jong Un has consolidated political power,” he said. “So if your aim with North Korea is changing the regime, it won’t work.”
Though many around the world believe dictatorships are destined for inevitable collapse, three generations of Kims have deeply entrenched their regime. “It is unprecedented, we should not take these factors lightly,” Moon said. “That is why we should take North Korea as it is, not as we wish to see it.
“Competition among party and state agencies and sometimes between the party and the military was cutthroat – that is how Kim Jong Il ran the system,” Moon said. “Under Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s governing system has become normalized. The Korea Workers’ Party has primacy over the military – unlike under his father.”
...
“In North Korea, you are not supposed to raise this issue!” he said. “She has the bloodline so she could be the most likely successor, but in North Korea you never talk about the second in power.” He warned, “When you do that, it can bring about a deadly boomerang effect on him or her.”
He cited the late Jang Song Thaek, Kim Jong Un’s uncle, who was executed in 2013 for reasons that remain unclear. His death is believed to be linked to disloyalty, to his massing of economic assets, or possibly his closeness to figures in China.
“Jang Song Thaek was the key figure, but now I don’t see any power players – the top players are mostly technocrats,” Moon said, adding, “I was stunned by what happened to Jang.”
4. [INTERVIEW] Chinese envoy says 'anti-China' grouping will cause confrontation (South Korea and the Quad - a warning)
The Korea Times · by Yi Whan-woo · February 8, 2021
Chinese ambassador to South Korea provides a warning.
South Korea must stand up to such threats. And we must support the ROK when China conducts economic warfare against it, unlike our failure to do so during the THAAD situation.
5. Biden's NK policy review
The Korea Times· by Tong Kim · February 8, 2021
Few Americans have spent as much time in north Korea interpreting for high level meetings) than Tong Kim. He offers five "assumptions" for the Biden policy review on north Korea.
I take strong exception to the first assumption especially. When has the Kim family regime ever changed its position on nuclear weapons? The regime may have changed positions on minor issues but I do not think it has changed its national objectives (party, military) for seven decades. And nuclear weapons are key to achieving those objectives. I hate to disagree with my good friend Tong, but I really think we need to begin assumptions with the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime as well as a review of north Korean policy and strategy.
6. US needs Korea policy reset
The Korea Times· by Sandip Kumar Mishra · February 8, 2021
A view from India. His key point:
“I would suggest that your administration, rather than having a "principled inactivism" approach, should pursue a "principled proactivism." Thus, a better choice would be to mix the principled approach of the Obama administration with the proactive approach of the Trump administration.”
7. Korean students at Harvard demand professor's apology over controversial claims on comfort women
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 8, 2021
Excerpt: "The issue of comfort women is an international inhumane act, and his academic view which justifies and negates the act is an immoral and shameless view," it added.
8. Moon’s Nixon moment
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · Ko Dae-hoon
An interesting analogy covering “internal file” on a North Korean nuclear construction project and The controversies surrounding former justice ministers Choo and Cho Kuk.
9. S. Korea to develop indigenous long-range radar to boost air defense capabilities
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 8, 2021
10. FM Kang leaves office after years of daunting diplomatic tasks
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · February 8, 2021
Farewell Madam Kang. It has been a challenging four years and you have navigated rough seas well.
Excerpts:
“Having led the ministry since June 2017, Kang described her stint as the nation's first female foreign minister as "most honorable" in her work life and voiced hope that her successor, Chung Eui-yong, will reinvigorate the ministry going forward.
"Of all workplaces I have gone through over more than 60 years, I think of this as the most honorable, and I think this will be remembered really as the most rewarding period in my life," she said during a farewell meeting with reporters.
11. North Korea conducts lectures on “squashing anti-socialist” acts
Who does Kim fear more? The Korean people conducting anti-socialist acts.
12. Four people in a wooden boat disappear from waters off Ryongyon County
dailynk.com · February 8, 2021
Hope the ROK Navy secured them or they made it to one of the Northwest Islands. But how much of a conspiracy was this? How important was this "security guidance officer?" It bears watching.
13. N.K. paper calls for military role in advancing economy on army founding anniversary
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 8, 2021
The military is the best functioning institution in north Korea.
Excerpt: The paper urged the military to play a leading role in its stationed areas and to turn the mining town of Komdok in South Hamgyong Province into the country's "model mountainous city."
And there is this key point. The party is in charge. "The paper, however, stressed that the military is strictly under the control of the ruling Workers' Party and called for the army's "absolute obedience."
14. wo minor natural quakes hit N. Korea's eastern region: KMA
en.yna.co.kr · by 김나영 · February 8, 2021
My first thought when seeing this report is whether there was a nuclear test. Fortunately the sensors are good enough to determine the differences. And I doubt the north was able to developed the capability to test a device 24km below the surface!
15. Acting U.S. ambassador highlights strong bilateral ties in first tweet
en.yna.co.kr · by 김승연 · February 8, 2021
Very well qualified. But I wonder how long it will be until a new ambassador is nominated and confirmed.
16. Marvel reveals new Korean hero 'Taegukgi'
More Korean soft power.
-------
"War is too serious a matter to entrust to military men."
- Georges Clemenceau
"When my brother and I built the first man-carrying flying machine we thought that we were introducing into the world an invention which would make further wars practically impossible."
-Orville Wright, 1917.
"Air Power is, above all, a psychological weapon—and only short-sighted soldiers, too battle-minded, underrate the importance of psychological factors in war."
- B. H. Liddell-Hart
