News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says

2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks

3. Moon to phone Biden this week

4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea

5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse

6. 'Reactor plan' for North

7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP

8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row

9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea

10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era

11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea

12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade

13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)

14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19

15. Moon urges no more 'regressive' politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan

16. No way out

 

1. Kim Jong Un cannot denuclearize, former North Korean diplomat says

CNN · Yoonjung Seo & Paula Hancocks · February 1, 2021

Not what some want to hear but also that which most of us have long known.

Mr. Ryu's prescription is actually what the regime and those who advocate arms control negotiations and appeasement want to hear. Allow North Korea to be a nuclear power and negotiate arms control measures.

While I absolutely agree that North Korea has no intention of denuclearizing, I do not agree with the prescriptions. All they are doing is allowing North Korea to accrue advantages in pursuit of its long-term goal to dominate the peninsula. Until we understand that and operate based on that assumption, we will never devise a superior political warfare strategy that can be successful against North Korea over time.

 

2. Defense ministry refuses to confirm envisioned proposal for inter-Korean talks

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 1, 2021

In the age of high-tech communications capabilities, I love to see the photo of a soldier using a TA-312 field telephone.

But on a serious note, this issue of negotiating with the North about combined ROK/US alliance exercises is going to create continued alliance friction. The ROK government and military need to clean this up. This is similar to the "three nos" President Moon allegedly agreed to with China over the THAAD issues (no more THAAD deployment, no ROK participating in integrated missile defense, and no trilateral ROK-US-Japan alliance). I stress allegedly, because the Moon administration denied this claim and these reports come from the Chinese, so it is obvious political warfare. The problem with the Chinese incident and now with the discussion about negotiating combined exercises with the North is that the ROK government should not be making third party agreements that affect the alliance and the US without consultation with the US. Of course, in the ROK’s defense, perhaps there have been consultations that have just not been made public. But I seriously doubt any US military leader and any well-informed political leader would acquiesce to a ROK proposal to negotiate combined exercises with the North. I guess we did not learn from the missteps in negotiating the Comprehensive Military Agreement.

 

3. Moon to phone Biden this week

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Ah-jin · February 1, 2021

I am sure some Koreans feel slighted about the timing (especially because Biden has already spoken with Suga). But the Blue House is correct that content matters over timing.

 

4. Unification minister denies allegation Seoul pushed to build nuke plant in N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · February 1, 2021

Is this explanation sufficient? As we will see with the reporting on this, it is stirring up a political tempest in Korean domestic politics. But if the reports are true, this provides insight into the assumptions the Moon administration has been making about North Korea and that does not bode well for the ROK/US alliance.

I wonder if this issue could be a reason for the delay of the phone call between Moon and Biden. This and the exercise negotiation with North Korea are not subjects that should be discussed on the first phone call.

 

5. Nuclear power scandal gets worse and worse

Chosun Ilbo · February 1, 2021

Worse and worse. This may drive domestic politics in South Korea for a while. But we need to be cognizant of the controversy as it affects North Korea policy and strategy.

 

6. 'Reactor plan' for North

Korea Times · February 1, 2021

Another negative view (and, frankly, I have not found any positive ones).

That said, the brainstorming and ideas explanation is plausible and even likely. The political opposition may be making more hay out of this than necessary.  And I certainly would not want to stifle creative thinking in the future. But it would have been helpful if the documents also described the discussion about the idea, its relationship to history, and the prospects for it being effective (or more likely ineffective). If there was no analysis accompanying the idea, then that is problematic and appears to indicate there was some kind of support for it.

 

7. Returning Iran's frozen money can impact tanker release, says Iranian MP

Dong-A Ilbo · Sung-Hwi Kang · February 1, 2021

Iran learns from the master (North Korea) on blackmail diplomacy. I wonder if the Kim regime is advising Iran on how to deal with South Korea.

 

8. Ruling bloc goes all out to fire back over nuclear plant row

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 1, 2021

I guess this will be a big political row.

 

9. Biden urged to resume dialogue with North Korea

Korea Times · Yang Moo-jin · February 1, 2021

I am all for dialogue with North Korea— as long as it rests on a foundation of a superior political warfare strategy, which seeks an acceptable, durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, sustain, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests.

A very nice letter from Professor Yang. However, I disagree with his analysis. If Kim does want to talk and have a "good relationship" with Biden, it is in order to support his political warfare strategy, which seeks to play the Biden and Moon administrations for sanctions relief, to keep his nuclear weapons, to split the ROK/US alliance, and to dominate the peninsula under his control for the survival of the Kim family regime. We must update our alliance assumptions about the nature and objectives of the regime.

 

10. Rocky Seoul-Tokyo ties expected to continue in Biden era

Korea Herald · Ahn Sung-mi · February 1, 2021

Unfortunately, I think the headline assessment is correct. The only way we will see a reduction in the friction is if Moon and Suga exercise courageous political leadership and pledge to put national security and national security ahead of the historical issues. They have to rise above their domestic politics and put the good of their nations first.

 

11. Biden should ditch these flawed assumptions about North Korea

Los Angeles Daily News · Daniel Depetris · February 1, 2021

I absolutely agree that strategic assumptions must be examined and reassessed and tested and updated when facts are learned. I think Mr. Depetris should emphasize that the ROKG assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime need to be re-evaluated and that there needs to be sufficient alignment between ROK and US strategic assumptions about the North.

However, I would take some issue with his analysis. To follow the critique of his first assumption to its conclusion means that we have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power and that there is no way we can achieve denuclearization. I find that flawed, because working to solve the "Korea question" will not only denuclearize the North. It will end the human rights abuses and the crimes against humanity begging commented against the Korean people in the North.

I also do not think any serious student of North Korea thinks Kim Jong-Un is unhinged. I think Biden's Korea team understands the nature of the Kim family regime (as much as any student of the North can) and will not recommend dealing with Kim as if he is irrational and unhinged. Kim is following his family playbook and following in his father's and grandfather's shoes.

I also do not think the Biden team thinks that economic pressure will cause Kim to denuclearize. We need to enforce sanctions to limit nuclear and missile development, proliferation, illicit activities and human rights abuses. Kim must be held accountable for malign actions, but I think Biden's Korea team knows the history of North Korean resilience and that, despite the terrible amount of suffering they impose (which are due more to Kim policies than to the sanctions themselves) sanctions alone will not cause Kim to denuclearize.

I find the analysis of all three of Mr. Depetris's assumptions not to be based in fact or understanding of the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime or the likely knowledge and recommendations that will be put forth by Biden's Korea team.

The bottom line is I don't think these three assumptions belong to the Biden team.

 

12. USD-KPW exchange rate begins climbing amid hopes for restart in trade

Daily NK · Jang Seul Gi · February 1, 2021

Kim cannot allow these draconian population and resources control measures to continue for too long.  But part of his measures is to get control of foreign currency. If the exchange rates are climbing, it must mean the population is still using foreign currency.

 

13. New virus cases at over 2-month low amid extended curbs (South Korea)

Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021

 

14. 14 USFK-affiliated people test positive for COVID-19

Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · February 1, 2021

 

15. Moon urges no more ‘regressive’ politics amid controversy over alleged N. Korea power plant plan

Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · February 1, 2021

I don't think South Koran domestic politics are going to calm down any time soon.

 

16. No way out

Korea Times · John Burton · February 1, 2021

Humanitarian assistance is not a carrot for the Kim family regime. It will not bring the North to the negotiating table.  And Kim has shown in recent years and months he is unwilling to accept offers from the US and the ROK.

But as the experts show Kim is more concerned with the threat from he Korean people in the North than he is about their welfare.

 

"A man is morally free when, in full possession of his living humanity, he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity."

- George Santayana

“Take the civil service out of government and the country will collapse. Take politics out of government and the country will flourish.”

- Abhijit Naskar

“To change a political system, the majority of the thinking citizens must unite, speak with one voice, and stand firm like one leg.”

- Dr. Ahmed Padia Binkatabana

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration

2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China

3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors

4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?

5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia

6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?

7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities

8. American Universities Declare War on Military History

9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar

10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game

11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser

12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'

13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition

14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites

15. Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones

16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street

17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault

18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong

19. The Role of retired Senior Officers

20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny

 

1. Biden Faces the World: 5 Foreign Policy Priorities for the New Administration

The National Interest · by Muqtedar Khan · January 31, 2021

Four continents/regions and China.  China gets its own separate billing.  Everything else is lumped into regions. 

But as the author notes, domestic crises will keep the administration focused on the homeland first.

 

2. Opinion | Biden's Nightmare May Be China

The New York Times · by Nicholas Kristof · January 30, 2021

Excerpts:

"We learned with the Soviet Union how to keep the Cold War cold," noted David Shambaugh, a George Washington University scholar and author of several excellent books on U.S.-China relations. He suggests dusting off the Cold War toolbox to see whether arms control agreements, hotlines and military-to-military consultations can lower temperatures.

"We're in really dangerous waters now," Shambaugh noted.

 

3. Government 'SWAT Team' Is Reviewing Past Startup Deals Tied to Chinese Investors

WSJ · by Heather Somerville

You have to appreciate the analogies we employ to describe our actions.  Now we have "SWAT teams" looking at business deals.

 

4. Why Are There No Biographies of Xi Jinping?

The Atlantic · by Jeffrey Wasserstrom · January 30, 2021

Very interesting question.  Publishing Houses should take this as a proposal and contract with Professor Wasserstrom to write Xi's biography.  Of course, it will be hard for him to obtain the necessary access.

Excerpts:

In a well-stocked bookstore, you can find multiple biographies of Putin, one of Kim that came out in 2019 and another published in 2020, plus ones of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. If your goal was to buy a comparable volume about the life of the most powerful leader China has had in decades-a person, moreover, who is by some measures the most powerful individual in the world-you would come up empty.

There are, of course, books about Xi. They are just not substantive and careful biographies, falling instead into one of three other categories: Chinese-language hagiographies published for domestic consumption; gossipy and lightly sourced volumes, again in Chinese, in a secret-lives-of-emperors vein, which cannot be sold on the mainland; and works in various languages that have Xi's name on their covers but are not devoted to describing and assessing his life. There have been only a few notable deep-dive article-length profiles and podcast episodes on the Chinese leader. Even though they shed light on important parts of Xi's life and personality, it is striking that there are just a handful of works worth mentioning, given how much power he has wielded for close to a decade.

Conclusion: But for a country that is in some ways, as Yan put it, reminiscent of both North Korea and the United States, and seems to be simultaneously sliding backward and surging forward, it will not work to think of Xi as either a completely novel figure or a straightforward throwback. It is high time to have a better sense than we do-even if it is no easy matter to figure out how to do it-of what makes the autocratic, muscular nationalist, order-obsessed strongman in charge of China tick.

 

5. Putin May Cripple the US's Strongest Voice in Russia

jamestown.org · by Thomas Kent · January 25, 2021

Certainly an indicator of the effectiveness of VOA and RFE/RL.  

Important excerpts:

However, retaliation against RT and Sputnik in the United States would bring claims of censorship, not only from the right- and left-wing US audiences the two outlets have cultivated but from advocates of free media. Russian nationals working at the networks could be expelled, but many of the outlets' staff are US citizens. Cable companies might also resist government attempts to control their offerings.

Shutting down RT and Sputnik might not even hurt Russia much. After years of perfecting other overt and covert ways to manipulate segments of US audiences (see Hot Issues, August 13, 2014), Russia may be willing to sacrifice its marquee outlets as the price for shutting down RFE/RL at home.

If RFE/RL's bureau should ultimately be forced to close, Congress would still have an option: sharply bolstering the media company to retain its Russian audience. RFE/RL is skilled at gathering and verifying news at a distance; it is a trusted source of local news in Iran, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and other countries where its bureaus are barred. Increased Congressional funding could support additional staff as well as the opening of new RFE/RL offices on Russia's periphery. Help may also be needed from technology firms and other US agencies if Russia tries to block it on the internet. (RFE/RL stopped shortwave broadcasts to Russia in 2016, since few Russians still have shortwave radios.)

I would never shut down RT or Sputnik. I would hope US media would take advantage of the opportunity to expose Russian information and propaganda strategies and compare the differences between Russian propaganda and the real news operations of USAGM's VOA/RFE/RL/RFA.  RT and Sputnik provide us insights into the Russian's propaganda messaging and they should not be able to influence critical thinking Americans who have access to free and open information.

 

6. Chief of General Staff Gerasimov Takes Over Russia's Academy of Military Sciences: What to Expect From Russian Planning for Future Warfare?

jamestown.org · by Roger McDermott · January 27, 2021

Very interesting development.  Since he is not giving up his current position and this is in addition to it, is this an indication as to how important professional military education and doctrine development is to the Russian military?  Could we imagine General Milley becoming the president of NDU while simultaneously being the CJCS?

But it is interesting that he had to "campaign" for the position:

Excerpt: In campaigning for the presidency of the AVN, Gerasimov argued that the institution should become "a large all-Russian military scientific center, contributing to the solution of priority geopolitical, military-strategic, military-economic and innovation-technological problems in the interests of defense of the country." Nonetheless, according to Oleg Falichev, writing in Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, under Gerasimov's presidency the AVN will probably continue to focus on conducting "fundamental, exploratory and applied scientific research on topical problems of military art, military organizational development and organizational development of the Armed Forces, military command and control, the development of weapons and military equipment, and military history" (Voyenno Promyshlennyy Kuryer, January 19, 2021).

 

7. Joe Biden's cabinet: What you need to know about the President's key advisers and their top priorities

https://fortune.com/2021/01/31/who-is-in-biden-cabinet-antony-blinken-janet-yellen-merrick-garland-gina-raimondo-xavier-becerra-pete-buttigieg-marcia-fudge/ - by Nicole Goodkind

Yes, the first rule of management is delegation and personnel is policy.  A useful overview of the cabinet.

 

8. American Universities Declare War on Military History

Bloomberg · by Max Hastings · January 31, 2021

Those who fail to learn from history... no need to finishes Santayna's famous quote.

Any national security practitioner must know and understand military history. 

As I have written the core for all professional military education should be the following curriculum topics.  I think this has application for national security practitioners more broadly.

1. Military History

2. Military Theory

3. Military Geography

4. Operational Art

5. Strategy

 

9. 'Biden will not be Obama 2.0': TaiwanThinktank scholar

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4116305 - by Kelvin Chen – 31 January 2021

I think this is pretty clear. And I think the Taiwanese see this more than most of our friends, partners, and allies.

 

10. How China is beating the US in geopolitical board game

https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3119753/how-china-beating-us-geopolitical-board-game

Weiqi (or Go or in Korean, Paduk) is a most difficult game.  I play it often on my computer and phone and I have never beat the computer (despite with handicaps!). 

But we might learn a lot by visualizing One Belt One Road (OBOR) or Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as if on a Go board.

 

11. To take on China, US must get its own house in order: National Security Adviser

straitstimes.com · by Charissa Yong · January 31, 2021

Excerpts:

"Step one... is to refurbish the fundamental foundations of our democracy. That goes for everything from our democratic system itself to issues of racial inequity, economic inequality - all of the things that have contributed to the shine coming off the American model over the course of time," he said.

Second, America has to move in lockstep with democratic allies and partners, he added.

Mr Sullivan said the Biden administration will build on the Quad - the informal grouping of the US, Australia, India and Japan - and sees it as "foundation upon which to build substantial American policy in the Indo-Pacific region".

Third, America has to make sure it leads the world in key technologies of the future, by working with other countries and making aggressive public investments at home to stay on the cutting edge, he said.

Lastly, the US has to be prepared to impose costs on China for its policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong and the "bellicosity of threats it is projecting towards Taiwan", Mr Sullivan added.

 

12. Biden plans first major foreign policy speech on restoring 'America's place'

CNN · by Kevin Liptak

We will be watching and listening for insights as to the way ahead:

While his speech is not expected to outline in detail the specifics of a new strategy on China, Iran, North Korea, Russia or other US adversaries, he will seek to frame his foreign policy around shoring up alliances and returning to multilateralism after the Trump administration, which was marked by unilateral actions and disdain for traditional diplomacy.

 

13. Ohio Army National Guard chaplain accused Joint Chiefs of sedition

Stars and Stripes

Wow.  From a Chaplain.

 

14. Unwelcome On Facebook, Twitter, QAnon Followers Flock To Fringe Sites

NPR · by Shannon Bond · January 31, 2021

I have seen a large exodus on the social media pages I observe.

 

15.  Pentagon Advisory Boards Need to Offer 10X Ideas, Not 10% Ones

defenseone.com · by Steve Blank, Raj Shah, and Joe Felter

From three brilliant strategic thinkers.

Excerpts:

Once the new members are in place, DoD should ask for big and bold ideas in several key areas, including:

* Technology and innovation: Given finite budgets, how best to evaluate, choose, and scale a plethora of new technologies and new operational concepts?

* Business practices: Examine and explore entirely new ways of building commercial partnerships and influencing the private sector.

* Policy: Ensure we understand our adversaries and how they are fusing together military, economic, and private markets to challenge us.

 

16. The GameStop bubble isn't a revolt against Wall Street

Quartz · by Tim Fernholz

Excerpts:

After some brokerages suspended trading in GameStop and other hot stocks, conspiracy theories quickly spread that "suits" intervened to keep small investors from playing the market. Some populist politicians joined the conspiratorial social media pile-on. The more prosaic reality is that online brokers swamped in new business had to raise money to meet capital requirements, imposed by regulators to protect investors of all stripes.

Populism this ain't. Occupy Wall Street did not speak with a single voice, but after the 2008 financial crisis, the "99%" were clearly fed up with speculation. Some of demands that emerged from that movement included universal basic income, debt relief-and a financial transactions tax to curb short-term investing. A decade later, is the dream really unfettered access to leveraged options trades?

Make no mistake: The "suits" would love to see that pivot-some call it neoliberalism.

 

17. 'Be ready to fight': FBI probe of U.S. Capitol riot finds evidence detailing coordination of an assault

The Washington Post – by Delvin Barrett, Spencer S. Hsu, and Aaron C. Davis - January 30, 2021

The more video that I see the more I see elements of planning and command and control despite the obvious chaos and appearance of a "leaderless" insurrection.

 

18. The Taliban says they won the war in Afghanistan. They are not wrong

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · January 30, 2021

Jeff Schogol offers a blunt critique.

Conclusion:

The hard truth is this: The United States has made clear it will eventually leave Afghanistan. Even if the U.S. military keeps a counter-terrorism force in the country beyond May, there is no way to separate fighting Al Qaeda from fighting the Taliban because they remain brothers in arms.

In other words, the U.S. military is trapped in Afghanistan and the Taliban know they just need to wait us out. To cite an overused cliché: We've got the watches; they've got the time.

That's why the Taliban have won.

 

19. The Role of retired Senior Officers

warroom.armywarcollege.edu · by Jeffrey E. Baker · January 29, 2021

Important food for thought.

 

20. Republican Ties to Extremist Groups Are Under Scrutiny

The New York Times · by Luke Broadwater and Matthew Rosenberg · January 29, 2021

This is going to get really ugly for our politics.  I can think of all kinds of scenarios emanating from this. None of them are good.

 

 

"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."

- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays

 

"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."

- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

 

"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."

- Alex Stein

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era

2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)

3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman

4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation

5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam

6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year

7. Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?

8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector

9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes

10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet

11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended

12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?

13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day

14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea

15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19

 

1. N.K. envoy says strengthening of defense capabilities aimed at opening peace era

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · January 29, 2021

Peace through strength.  They are finally paying attention to Ronald Reagan.  

On a serious note,, this is something we very much need to pay attention to.  If there was to be an end of war declaration or some kind of peace regime we would still have the 4th largest army in the world postured offensively along the DMZ posing an existential threat to the ROK.  These kinds of statements indicate there would be no confidence building measures or reductions in force posture along the DMZ.  While the Moon administration and many progressives in the South would be rejoicing at the realization of Moon's peace and reconciliation vision, the Kim family regime would e rejoicing because of the success of its political warfare strategy and the advantage it has provided the north to reach its objective which is to dominate the South and the bring the rule of the entire peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

2. Gyeonggi governor asks U.S., UN for understanding (on ROK anti-leaflet law)

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

As much as I disagree with the law and think it is a major strategic national security mistake, I think it is important to examine the ROK rationale.

First and foremost, this seems to be about a "threat to life' and "threat to property."  There are 1.12 million South Korean residents near the DMZ.  Some of them have also consistently called for a stop to leaflet drops since the North Korean firing of anti-aircraft rounds in 2014 to shoot down balloons carrying leaflets.  The 2014 incident is one of the only incidents I recall where this has happened.  I do not think there has ever been any loss of life due to leaflet operations.  But as I have said the way to protect citizens and property is not through appeasement of the north which will only invite more threats and blackmail diplomacy from the Kim family regime.

The Moon administration defends its human rights approach by arguing along these lines: Every year, the ROK government formulates plans to promote North Korean human rights and is making multi-faceted efforts policy-wise to resolve humanitarian issues involving separated families, South Korean prisoners of war, and abductees and to raise public awareness about the importance of improving human rights conditions in North Korea.  Color me skeptical.

The Moon administration also makes the case the leaflet law is in keeping with agreements between the South and north.  They have repeatedly agreed to stop mutual slander and defamation and ban the scattering of leaflets, starting from the July 4 South-North Korea Joint Statement (1972) to the Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North (1991) and to the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula (2018).  I respect the ROK for trying to maintain the moral high ground here and they could do this by helping the escapees to take a more professional and sophisticated approach to information and influence.  There is no need to slander and defame Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong.  All they need to do is simply provide information and news, and the truth.  There is no need for insults and derogatory attacks against the north. In fact one of the most powerful propaganda tools employed lately was the Netflix K-drama "Crash landing On You" that portrayed the north Korean People's Army soldiers as human beings and not ugly automatons and monsters.  According to escapees one of the reasons for its powerful positive influence in the north was because of that and when I asked former north Korea soldiers how they thought current north Korean soldiers are reacting to the K-drama they said they desire to come to the South even more than did before.

The Moon administration compares their actions to US actions and legal rulings. While guaranteeing the full exercise of freedom of expression as stipulated in the Constitution of the ROK, the amendment (law) puts limitations to the minimum extent necessary to protect people's lives and safety and in a way that also conforms to the U.S. Supreme Court rulings.  They will cite Ward v. Rock Against Racism (1989): The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that restrictions of freedom of expression are permissible so long as they are without reference to the content of the regulated speech, narrowly tailored to serve a significant governmental interest, and leave open ample alternative channels for communication of the information.  I am far from a legal scholar and while this may hold water legally I still think despite the apparent legality it is a strategic national security error because it is appeasing north Korean demands based on threats -it is giving in to coercion/extortion or blackmail diplomacy. And Kim Yo-jong and her brother andteh regime should be expected to double down on its blackmail diplomacy to support its political warfare strategy.

In addition, the ROK government argues the amendment does not run counter to the U.S. Government's human rights policies that seek to enhance access to information for people living in repressed societies such as a socialist state.  The ROK Government argues is of the same view that it is important that North Koreans have access to information and that it is necessary to bring about positive changes to North Korean society by promoting it. Korea is also striving to have external information flow into the North in various ways - for instance, Korea's public broadcaster KBS is running 'Korean National (Hanminjok) AM Radio' channel transmitted to the North. The ROK government also argues Ø we should consider the fact that, even without leaflet drops, the North Korean society can already easily access South Korean TV series and movies through 6 million-plus mobile phones, 400-plus street markets (known as Jangmadang), and information exchanges in areas bordering China. Fundamentally the ROK government argues it is their basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects.  I do strongly agree with the ROK Government's basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects. However, I would also argue that the ROK government (with the help of the US and escapees from the north) must aggressively embrace their responsibility to get information into the north and use all means available to do so, despite north Korean regime opposition. And the ROK government could help the escapees with their messaging and shift from the blatant anti-north Korea  derogatory and insulting rhetoric to more effective messaging.  We shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. There is too much good being done by the escapees and they could do much more with government and international help.

The answer to this issue is not to pass a law banning leaflets.  it would be for the ROK, with US support, to adopt a sophisticated and holistic approach to information and influence activities.  They should help the escapees with their mission and give them support and advise them on how to shape their activities to maintain the moral high ground and act in keeping with north-South agreements.  They would maintain the human rights high ground by helping the Korean people in the north gain access to information that is denied by the regime.

Here are the recommendations my colleague Mathew Ha and I made in our Plan B strategy for north Korea (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/)

 

The United States and South Korea should implement a comprehensive and aggressive IIA campaign in North Korea. The focus should be three-fold: create internal threats against the regime from among the elite, provide the second-tier leadership with alternative paths to survival, and prepare the Korean people for eventual unification under a United Republic of Korea. To do so, we recommend the following steps:

• Develop organizational infrastructure to facilitate IIA: The United States and South Korea lack a single organization to direct IIA against North Korea. Washington and Seoul should establish institutions that would work together to plan and shape combined IIA. Fortunately, as discussed earlier, the United States already has numerous tools at its disposal, such as the State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor; Voice of America; and Radio Free Asia. The United States should centralize these activities under an oversight organization. This organization would coordinate all agencies and departments and work with non-government organizations.
  Under the Moon administration, there will likely be concerns that IIA could upset diplomatic conditions. Admittedly, an IIA campaign targeting Pyongyang could risk stirring additional short-term tensions with Pyongyang. But U.S. diplomats should remind their ROK counterparts that those tensions may ultimately forge a path to the peaceful denuclearization of North Korea. U.S. diplomats also need to remind their South Korean allies that Seoul's persistent use of concessions has not elicited progress with Pyongyang.

• Encourage Moon's government to increase intra-Korean people-to-people exchanges: Washington should encourage intra-Korean engagement by sponsoring people-to-people educational and cultural exchanges. Such exchanges could expose North Korea's intelligentsia and emerging elites to democratic concepts as well as personal relationships with South Koreans.241
• Implement aggressive IIA targeting the North Korea regime: After building a baseline consensus, the United States and South Korea should implement increasingly aggressive IIA targeting the North Korean regime. These activities should inform North Koreans of their universal human rights and civil liberties that the regime is failing to respect. This will undermine the legitimacy of the Kim family regime and give hope to the people living in the North. Alternate sources of information can put regime propaganda in perspective.
  This campaign could also help lay the initial groundwork for emergent leaders who could replace Kim and who might seek to unify with the South as equal partners under the values of individual liberty and freedom, liberal democracy, and a free market economy. At a minimum, this campaign could help persuade Kim that the status quo poses a greater threat than good faith negotiations with the United States and South Korea. The ultimate goal is to create internal divisions and threats that will influence Kim to denuclearize.
• Increase exposure of North Koreans to the outside world: IIA must exploit North Koreans' growing access to DVDs, USB drives, and smart phones from outside the country.242 These media devices can carry content popular among North Koreans, such as South Korean dramas, which can implicitly help Koreans in the North better understand the difference between the regime they have and the government they deserve.243
• Establish a Korea Defector Information Institute (KDII): There is no single organization in the United States or South Korea that harnesses the information of defectors to support IIA. If both nations worked together to establish a KDII, it could serve as a repository for defector information to inform policymakers, strategists, and those responsible for developing IIA themes and messages. This institute should utilize defector knowledge and advice in devising appropriate messages and communications techniques. It could also encourage North Koreans to defect, particularly members of Office 39 (also known as Department 39), who are knowledgeable of the Kim family regime's finances.
• Provide military support to ROK-U.S. government programs for IIA: S. Psychological Operations (PSYOP) forces should be deployed on a permanent basis to support ROK PSYOP forces as part of a national-level alliance IIA campaign. ROK and U.S. PSYOP forces should advise and assist defector organizations to synchronize themes, messages, and dissemination methods to ensure unity of effort.

 

3. Hearing on Seoul's leaflet ban to open soon: US congressman

koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 31, 2021

Note Josh Stanton's legal assessment on the ROK government comparing their law to US legal rulings.

 

Critics also dispute past cases that the government has cited as precedents for the ban.

"There was a Supreme Court ruling (favoring a ban) in 2016. But the court was not speaking of an outright ban on leafleting. It discussed adding rules on the leaflets' content or distribution, which is nothing like the complete ban we see now," said Chang Young-soo, a professor of constitutional law at Korea University.

Joshua Stanton, a Washington-based lawyer who served as a member of the US Army Judge Advocate General's Corps in Korea from 1998 to 2002, said Seoul's interpretation of an American law on censorship was wrong.

"The Blue House cites Schenck, a century-old decision allowing authoritarian wartime censorship of anti-draft speech. Schenck is one of the most discredited decisions in American legal history. ... The Supreme Court finally overturned it in 1969."

 

4. PPP wants probe of nuke plant for North allegation

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com

PPP= People Power Party. (not the paycheck protection program).

Excerpts:

Joo Ho-young, the floor leader of the PPP, urged in a Facebook post Sunday that President Moon address the North Korea nuclear power plant allegation, adding that if such an explanation is not made, "the truth must be revealed through a special probe and a parliamentary inspection."

He asked, "What is the idea, trying to shut down nuclear power plants in South Korea and build a nuclear power plant in the North?"

Broadcaster SBS first reported last Thursday evening that the deleted Energy Ministry documents recovered by prosecutors included files on a North Korea nuclear power plant construction plan.

Among the 530 documents deleted in December 2019, restored by prosecution, there were reportedly 17 files concerning North Korea created in 2018. Those documents were stored inside a folder entitled "60 pohjois." Pohjois is a Finnish world for North.

 

5. 4 U.S. B-52H bombers deployed to Guam

en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · January 31, 2021

The South Korean press keeps close tabs on the deployment of US strategic assets.

We should call the B-52 the "reinforcer."  As in "These strategic deterrence missions reinforce the rules-based international order in the Indo-Pacific region," We should think about how the B-52 reinforces the rules-based international order.

 

6. Kim Jong-un's wife has now not been seen in public for more than a year

dailystar.co.uk · by Joshua Smith · January 30, 2021

Hmmm...  I wonder which analyst has responsibility for tracking her.  Must have been tough for the last year at intelligence updates.  "Nope. Still no sign of her.  I don't know where she is or what has appended to her."

The buried lede is KJU's son who may be 11 years old.  How old will he have to be to become a boy king to succeed his father?  What will be the impact on succession and Kim Yo-jong (KJU's sister)?

 

7.  Pressure vs. Dialogue: What North Korea Policy Will Biden Pick?

The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · January 30, 2021

Why do the pundits always make this a binary choice?  Why can't we think both/and rather than either/or.    Our both/and proposal based on realistic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime is here.  It is  Plan B for north Korean strategy.  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/

I would be cautious about this conclusion.  Seoul must be well aware the Biden administration's priorities must be on US domestic issues: COVID and the US economy, but that does not mean that the administration's Korea team will not be working hard on the strategy review and developing new policy and strategy for north Korea.  I can guarantee they have a sense of urgency.

Conclusion: Just as importantly for Seoul, will the Biden administration approach North Korea with a sense of urgency? Or will the country be a secondary priority? All evidence so far points to the latter.

 

8. In photos: The life of a North Korean defector

By Jeon Heon-Kyun

A dozen photos at the link.  I think this conclusion is something we should all reflect upon and respect:  "After almost 10 years in South Korea, he is satisfied that he sacrificed his 53 years, including his military career, of life in North Korea now that he and his family can enjoy the happiness of leading life in a free country."

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/photography/north-korean-defector-south-korea-b1794009.html

 

9. To Succeed on North Korea, Convince Kim He is Safer Without Nukes

The National Interest · by Doug Bandow · January 30, 2021

We make a similar argument in our Plan B recommended strategy here:

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/

However, we argue that it is only a threat from - the elite and the military - that may cause Kim to consider denuclearizaing. Kim raised (unrealistic) expectations) in 12018 that he could play Trump and moon and get sanctions relief from both while keeping his nuclear program. He has failed to get sanctions relief and this has undermined his legitimacy among the elite and the military. escapees tell me this is the biggest failure in the Kim family regime by any of the Three Kims. If he is unable to "play" the Biden administration (which I do not think he will be able to do successfully) the internal pressure will grow and he will be faced with internal threats.  It is this kind of internal pressure that has the best chance of changing Kim's calculus.  If we appease Kim or give him concessions with sanctions relief he will judge his political warfare strategy successful, he will have the support of the elite and the military and he will double down on his strategy to achieve domination of the peninsula.

 

10. South Korea in final stage of assembling first prototype of indigenous fighter jet

The Korea Times · January 31, 2021

 

11. New virus cases dip below 400, tougher virus curbs extended

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · January 31, 2021

 

12. America's North Korea Strategy Has Failed. What Will Biden Do?

The National Interest · by Hazel Smith · January 31, 2021

So, Professor Smith thinks appeasement will work.  How about executing a superior political warfare strategy with a long-term objective of solving the "Korea question?"

I think the same argument can be made against an appeasement strategy as she makes against a pressure strategy in her conclusion.  Her strategy is one based on hope over experience.  We have seen what happened with the 10 years of the Sunshine Policy and the Peace and Prosperity Policies of the Kim and Roh administrations as well as the peace at any cost vision of the current Moon Administration.

Conclusion: In the end, the Biden administration can keep doing what every other administration has done since George W. Bush in the expectation that hope will triumph over experience. Or it can ditch the clichés and get real in dealing with North Korea.

 

13. Microsoft Believes DPRK-Linked Hackers Used Chrome Zero-Day

MakeUseOf · by Gavin Phillips · January 31, 2021

Beware the Kim family regime's "all purpose sword" of cyber.

 

14. Judge Rejects Virgil Griffith's Motion to Dismiss Charges of Aiding North Korea

CoinDesk · by Muyao Shen · January 30, 2021

Excerpts:

Griffith's team has argued that first amendment rights protected him and that he did not render North Korea "services" since he received no compensation for the speech.

"The failure to allege that Griffith was paid a fee by the DPRK does not render the indictment defective," Castel wrote. "The indictment alleges an object of the conspiracy was 'to provide services to the DPRK.' This is sufficient and encompasses the provision of useful labor or human effort whether or not compensation was contemplated."

The U.S. State Department banned all U.S. citizens from traveling to North Korea without express permission in 2017. According to today's ruling, Griffith's request was initially rejected by the State Department, but later granted by the DRPK UN mission in Manhattan after he sent copies of his CV, passport, and explained his desire to attend the conference.

 

15. Complaints over noise in S. Korea spike amid Covid-19

straitstimes.com · by Chang May Choon · January 31, 2021

COVID is changing so many lives in so many ways - some of course worse than others.

 

 

"Discourse and critical thinking are essential tools when it comes to securing progress in a democratic society. But in the end, unity and engaged participation are what make it happen."

- Aberjhani, Splendid Literarium: A Treasury of Stories, Aphorisms, Poems, and Essays

 

"To vastly improve your country and truly make it great again, start by choosing a better leader. Do not let the media or the establishment make you pick from the people they choose, but instead choose from those they do not pick."

- Suzy Kassem, Rise Up and Salute the Sun: The Writings of Suzy Kassem

 

"Government is a system of morality developed by philosophers and refined by mercenaries."

- Alex Stein

More information and the full application here: https://ctc.usma.edu/ctc-summer-2021-internship-search-opens/

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. Ruling Party Membership No Longer Automatic for North Korean Soldiers

2. North Korean magazine depicts an upbeat 2020 unlike elsewhere

3. Personnel moves offer hints to Biden's approach to North Korea

4. Biden and both Koreas

5. Controversy erupts over Seoul's possible push to build nuke plant in North Korea

6. The nuclear elephant in the room: To restrain or disarm?

7. Kim Jong Un's true intentions were revealed through the anti-reactionary thought law

8. South Korea, US set to move closer under Joe Biden, but China has concerns

9. Japan's role to increase in North Korean denuclearization in Biden era

10. Incidents at sea highlight tension between North and South Korea

11. South Korea Shows OECD How It's Done In Covid-19 Era

12. South Korea's COVID Success Stems From an Earlier Infectious Disease Failure

13. North Korean Defectors Explain Just How Popular BTS Is In North Korea

14. No need to hurry in regaining OPCON

 

1. Ruling Party Membership No Longer Automatic for North Korean Soldiers

rfa.org

Most of the military and security services actually fall into Songbun's wavering class.

Excerpts:

"According to the Supreme Commander's order, the new standard is to bolster party membership by first accepting soldiers from basic combat units, including from ships, guard posts and infantry deployed in the front lines," the source said, clarifying that this meant soldiers stationed near the military demarcation line that separates North and South Korea since the 1953 Korean War Armistice.

"It is likely that membership opportunities will greatly decrease for soldiers in non-combat units or those stationed in the rear," the source said.

Screening for potential members from the military's ranks will also be more comprehensive, according to the source.

"Candidates are to be carefully selected by thoroughly reviewing their levels of faithfulness to the party, how well they performed their military tasks, including combat and political training, and any other 'exemplary activities' in building a strong state," said the source.

 

2. North Korean magazine depicts an upbeat 2020 unlike elsewhere

asahi.com – by Takeshi Kamiya – 28 January 2021

There is no propaganda like north Korean propaganda.

Excerpts:

The Korean-language magazine also offers insight on what North Korean authorities apparently chose not to show.

Amid a plethora of images of rebuilding from natural disasters and military parades, a mere single page is dedicated to the COVID-19 pandemic and features scenes of infection control efforts at a zoo, railway facilities and elsewhere.

Yet oddly it stands out due to its lack of a reference to novel coronavirus countermeasures.

Pyongyang maintains that no one has yet been infected with the novel coronavirus in North Korea.

The magazine, bearing the imprint of the Foreign Languages Publishing House, was likely produced as propaganda for North Korea's achievements primarily targeted at those living outside the country with an interest in affairs of the Korean Peninsula.

 

3. Personnel moves offer hints to Biden's approach to North Korea

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

Personnel is policy.

 

4.  Biden and both Koreas

m.lasvegassun.com · by Donald Kirk · January 30, 2021

Yes, here are a number of alliance issues that must be resolved.

In the interests of a smooth relationship with Biden, Moon will endorse the U.S.-Korean alliance. Questions, however, surround OPCON, giving South Korean operational control of forces in the event of war. It's not clear whether South Korean and U.S. forces are capable of coordinating smoothly under OPCON in a real-time emergency. They need to test their capabilities in intricate joint exercises that infuriate the North Koreans.

At the same time, the U.S. and South Korea have to resolve contentious negotiations on the South's contribution to the cost of keeping U.S. bases and 28,500 U.S. troops in the country. Trump badly upset the alliance by demanding South Korea pay $5 billion a year, more than five times the $927 million paid last year. Biden's team will be looking for agreement on slightly more than $1 billion.

Trump as president left many difficult issues for Biden to settle. After all his big talk, his showmanship, his dream of a Nobel peace prize, North Korea remains a de facto nuclear power holding nukes and missiles like a club over South Korea, Japan and the U.S. If there is reason for hope, it's that North Korea is too weak for Kim to be able to carry out any of the threats with which he is greeting Biden, whom he never congratulated for defeating his friend Trump in November's presidential election.

 

5.  Controversy erupts over Seoul's possible push to build nuke plant in North Korea

The Korea Times · January 29, 2021

Hmmm..... admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations:

"(The existence of the deleted documents) has been wrongly interpreted with regard to the government's intentions. That's not true," a ministry official said. "The previous Park Geun-hye government also examined various inter-Korean energy cooperation plans in preparation for unification," the official argued.

 

6. The nuclear elephant in the room: To restrain or disarm?

thebulletin.org · by Rob Elder · January 29, 2021

A discussion of the arguments of the disarmament advocates and the "restrainers" and nonproliferation.

Conclusion:

The expansive foreign policy long practiced by Washington has contributed substantially to nuclear nonproliferation, a prerequisite of total nuclear disarmament. But insofar as a shift toward restraint entails deep cuts in defense spending and drawdowns from legacy commitments of US forces abroad, restrainers imperil the ambitious goal of disarmament. If Americans grow more willing to take a chance on a new grand strategy, uncertainty about the contours of a restraint-based US foreign policy will become a less convincing argument for staying the current course, and nonproliferation will likely become a lower priority in Washington. Disarmament advocates will be increasingly pressured to choose between the incompatible goals of peace and nuclear weapons abolition. The implications of their choice could hardly be greater.

 

7.  Kim Jong Un's true intentions were revealed through the anti-reactionary thought law

dailynk.com – by Mun Sun Bo - January 29, 2021

Again, not to beat the horse too much more dead, but the new DASS for EAP, Dr. Jung Pak always asks who does Kim Jong-un fear more: the US or the Korean people living in the north?  This is an obvious answer to that question.  Control over the populations (and the denial of their human rights) is of paramount importance to ensure the survival of the Kim family regime.

Excerpts:

Authors Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith pointed out in their book, The Dictator's Handbook, that a dictator is someone who hates freedom. Their reasoning is because if you allow freedom, then the people will recognize each other's suffering and easily cooperate in antigovernmental demonstrations. This same analysis can also be applied to Kim Jong Un because the people's freedom can be a threat to one's rank. If outside information gets in (to North Korea) and people become aware of freedom and human rights, then the stronghold of Kim Jong Un's dictatorship that he worked tirelessly to build will easily collapse. This is why Kim Jong Un feels the need that he must desperately block the spread of liberalism. The anti-reactionary law was formed from within this context.

The anti-reactionary law was enacted by the North Korean authorities last year on Dec. 4. at the 12th Session of the 14th Supreme People's Assembly (SPA). The essence of this law is that anyone who uses, distributes, or stores any cultural content from South Korea, or other countries such as the US and Japan, could be punished with a maximum sentence of the death penalty. Daily NK obtained and released specific details of this law on Jan. 15.

 

8. South Korea, US set to move closer under Joe Biden, but China has concerns

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3119846/south-korea-us-set-move-closer-under-joe-biden-china-has – by Laura Zhou and Rachel Zhang – 30 January 2021

Korea is the shrimp among whales.

China recognizes the alliance friction with the different views toward north Korea here:

Wu Xiangning, an assistant professor at the University of Macau, said South Korea and the US had different views on how to achieve denuclearisation in North Korea and that was having a negative impact on their military alliance.

"The Moon administration wants the US to restart talks with North Korea," he said. "Over 70 per cent of South Korean people expect Biden to meet Kim Jong-un, but [the US president] made it clear he would not meet Kim unless he committed to denuclearising."

"In the meantime, the US will continue to impose sanctions on North Korea, which Moon does not want it to do as he is hoping for a peaceful unification of the peninsula and doesn't want to upset North Korea too much."

 

9. Japan's role to increase in North Korean denuclearization in Biden era

The Korea Times · January 30, 2021

As I have mentioned many times we need our linchpin and cornerstone alliances (and sufficient cooperation between the two) to be successful in addressing the challenges posed by the mafia-like crime family cult in north Korea. 

 

10. Incidents at sea highlight tension between North and South Korea

korea.stripes.com · January 30, 2021

 

11. South Korea Shows OECD How It's Done In Covid-19 Era

Forbes · by William Pesek · January 29, 2021

Some good news but with advice not to make the same mistakes as in the past.

Excerpts:

Moon, though, needs to stop making the same mistake as predecessors: putting most of his chips on the Bank of Korea. Since December, the BOK has been under pressure to expand its mandate to support growth. Fair enough. But Moon's economy would get more mileage from tax and regulatory changes that level playing fields to realize his vision for a "fair economy."

That also means clamping down on the family-owned giants known as "chaebols" to make more space for a startup boom.

It will take levels of courage Moon has yet to display to roll out new anti-trust measure to reign in powerful household names like Daewoo, Hyundai, LG, Samsung and SK.

The good news is that Moon has more than a year left to act. The even better news is that his economy is flashing optimistic signs that Seoul can harness to confound the naysayers yet again. It's kind of become Korea's brand.

 

12. South Korea's COVID Success Stems From an Earlier Infectious Disease Failure

Slate · by Jiyeon Kim · January 29, 2021

Learn, adapt, anticipate - and repeat.

Conclusion: While South Korea's specific public health measures might not be transferable to other countries, its willingness to learn from mistakes certainly is. Moreover, after the last four disastrous and shambolic years, rebuilding public trust in government is more important than ever in the United States. While the recent rollout of COVID-19 vaccines brings hope, initial distribution has been met with delays and obstacles. We failed with testing and contact tracing, yet we could have learned from these mistakes and done better with the vaccine. New, more infectious COVID-19 variants have forced the United Kingdom and other countries into national lockdowns again and are already spreading throughout the United States. While the previous administration never had a coordinated plan to control the virus, there is still a chance-and urgent need-to do better. South Korea's model offers both a blueprint of success and a reminder that a combination of good governance, good science, and public trust is the only way to effectively deal with public health crises.

 

13. North Korean Defectors Explain Just How Popular BTS Is In North Korea

koreaboo.com · January 30, 2021

One data point that we can get information into the north. The regime cannot keep it out.

 

14. No need to hurry in regaining OPCON

donga.com – 30 January 2021

Sigh.... This is why we need an IO plan for OPCON transition. There is no "regaining" OPCON by Seoul.  There is no transfer of OPCON from Washington to Seoul. When a Korean general takes command of the ROK/US CFC he will still answer equally to both countries through the Military Committee.  The US does not have OPCON of ROK forces and when the transition is complete the ROK will not have OPCON of US forces. The ROK/US CFC will exercise OPCON of both ROK and US forces (when each government decides to provide forces to the command) and the command will answer equally to both countries through the Military Committee.  The failure to explain this to the press, the politicos, the pundits, and the public will continue to cause long term friction with the transition process.

But most importantly the process is conditions based because the conditions must be met to ensure the security of the ROK. Failing to meet the conditions and still going forward with the transition has the potential to put the ROK and the people of South Korea at great risk.

 

 

"Justice is the first virtue of social institutions, as truth is of systems of thought."

- John Rawls, A Theory of Justice

 

"The illusion of free will, of freedom, is a useful tool you know. Let people think they are free and present them with a danger to their so-called freedom, a fear. It's amazing how much you can get them to deal with just as long as you tell them they're still free."

- Jordon Greene, They'll Call It Treason

 

"The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism. But this leads at length to a more formal and permanent despotism."

- George Washington

By Jason Criss Hawk

 

Full Article: https://news.clearancejobs.com/2021/01/29/andsf-versus-the-taliban-militia-if-peace-talks-fail/

A roundup of news, analysis, and commentary about the war in Afghanistan.

 

Including:

-A report the the U.S. Treasury Department that Al Qaeda is gaining strength in Afghanistan

-Assassination threats against Afghan Journalists

-Released Taliban prisoners being recaptured

-A net assessment of the ANSDF and the Taliban

-The beginnings of the new adminstration's approach to Afghanistan

-Updates on peace talks

 

https://sof.news/afghanistan/afghan-update-jan-2021/