https://sof.news/update/20210125/
Topics Include:
Chris Miller's Last Days in the Pentagon
SEAL sentenced to prison
Training Updates
Joint Concepts with Marine Reconnaissance units and Air Force Special Tactics
Upcoming Events
Book Recommendations
Videos and Interviews
Full Report: https://www.gao.gov/assets/720/711882.pdf
CAS is an air action by aircraft against hostile targets that are in close proximity to friendly forces and that requires detailed integration of each air mission with the fire and movement of those forces.14 All participants in CAS are responsible for identifying friendly and enemy forces and this relies on continuous communication between ground forces and aircrews. DOD relies on CAS to attack the enemy in a variety of military operations and to augment other fire support (e.g., surface-to-surface fires from artillery) in situations in which other fire support may not be able to effectively engage. Joint doctrine outlines a multiphase cycle for CAS, which includes planning, preparation, execution, and assessment.15
Full Article: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-win-asymmetric-war-era-special-forces-87601
By Keith Pritchard, Roy Kempf, and Steve Ferenzi
The U.S. Army’s Special Operations Forces (ARSOF) shape the terms and tempo of competition by leveraging irregular warfare capabilities to enable other instruments of statecraft to prevail without resorting to war. ARSOF's influence creates strategic advantage through behavior modification (compellence and inducement) and behavior reinforcement (deterrence and assurance) in target audiences. These complement traditional forms of deterrence and coercive diplomacy against adversaries that deliberately avoid America’s conventional strengths.
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. China is joining the global push to rein in tech giants
2. China overtakes U.S. as world’s leading destination for foreign direct investment
3. For wars of the future, Pentagon looks to distant past: the B-52
4. Three steps to fight online disinformation and extremism
5. Biden must seek a new balance of equals in Asia to avert a US-China partition
6. Experts predict the future transition of COVID-19 virus to a mild common illness
7. The beautiful stability of U.S. foreign policy
8. Philippines inks $940 million deal with China to link Subic Bay and Clark Air Base by rail
9. Russian hack of US agencies exposed supply chain weaknesses
10. China's foreign policy weapons: technology, coercion, corruption
11. Biden’s Asia policy will be controversial – and that’s a good thing
12. China pushes fringe theories on pandemic origins, virus
13. China’s military ‘prepares for war’ with joint operations, cross-training
14. Tibetan monk dies after beatings, torture in Chinese prison
15. China tests Biden’s resolve on strategic flash point of Taiwan
16. Canada to join Quad joint naval exercise in Pacific Ocean
17. The case for an imperfect solution in Afghanistan
18. The climate crisis is worse than you can imagine. Here’s what happens if you try.
19. The blob is addicted to overseas interventions
20. To learn the Army’s ethic, officers should study the Army’s history
21. Special operations news update - Monday, January 25, 2021
1. China is joining the global push to rein in tech giants
Wall Street Journal · Sam Schechner, Liza Lin, & Chong Koh Ping · January 24, 2021
My suspicious side wonders if they will work to rein in US and European tech giants so that their state-owned tech companies can eventually dominate. There must be a lawfare angle to this for China.
2. China overtakes U.S. as world’s leading destination for foreign direct investment
Wall Street Journal · Paul Hannon & Eun-Young Jeong · January 24, 2021
3. For wars of the future, Pentagon looks to distant past: the B-52
Wall Street Journal · Michael R. Gordon · January 24, 2021
I guess the B-52 is the exemplar of the adage: "They don't make them like they used to."
And, yes, they do call it the BUFF (though they provide us the G-rated version of the meaning of the acronym).
4. Three Steps to Fight Online Disinformation and Extremism
Defense One · Peter W. Singer · January 24, 2021
Some thoughtful analysis from Peter Singer.
The three steps:
Near-term: change the message
Medium-term: sift the data
Long-term: inoculate the system
My recommendations are here: "The Cyber Underground – Resistance to Active Measures and Propaganda: “The Disruptors” - Motto: “Think For Yourself”
I still think some of the best advice on this comes from Nadia Shadlow and HR McMaster, which they wrote in the 2017 National Security Strategy:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
As an aside—if you try to find the NSS, it is no longer accessible on the White House web site. It is 404 at this link.
If you need access to it, you can find it on the Wayback Machine, here.
5. Biden must seek a new balance of equals in Asia to avert a US-China partition
South China Morning Post · Anthony Rowley · January 25, 2021
I do not think China is mirror imaging. In my opinion, China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
I don't believe that is a mirror image of the US.
6. Experts predict the future transition of COVID-19 virus to a mild common illness
Source · Jordan Eversley · January 24, 2021
We can only hope—and sooner rather than later.
7. The beautiful stability of U.S. foreign policy
1945 · James Holmes · January 25, 2021
8. Philippines inks $940 million deal with China to link Subic Bay and Clark Air Base by rail
Stars & Stripes · Seth Robson · January 22, 2021
Even though Clark and Subic are no longer US bases, US forces have a persistence presence in these locations (particularly US naval vessels using the maintenance facilities in Subic).
9. Russian hack of US agencies exposed supply chain weaknesses
Associated Press · Eric Tucker · January 25, 2021
The supply chain is one of the most important strategic capabilities that must be protected. Otherwise our economic instrument of power will wither on the vine.
I hope we can learn and adjust from this.
10. China's foreign policy weapons: technology, coercion, corruption
Bloomberg · Hal Brands · January 25, 2021
11. Biden’s Asia policy will be controversial – and that’s a good thing
South China Morning Post · Van Jackson · January 25, 2021
12. China pushes fringe theories on pandemic origins, virus
Associated Press · Huizhong Wu · January 25, 2021
Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations. And employ copious amounts of disinformation and conspiracy theories.
13. China’s military ‘prepares for war’ with joint operations, cross-training
South China Morning Post · Liu Zhen · January 24, 2021
I recall being part of a US group entertaining a Chinese delegation in 2010 or 2011 at the National War College. One of their "concerns" was that we had recently disbanded the Joint Forces Command. They wanted to know if the US had given up the concept of Joint Operations. They wanted to know how we could continue to focus on joint operations without a Joint Forces Command. Was this an admission that our concept of joint operations was deemed a failure. This was important to them, because they were, of course, developing their own joint operations concepts (some of which were probably modeled off or inspired by our concepts.)
14. Tibetan monk dies after beatings, torture in Chinese prison
Radio Free Asia · Pema Ngodup, Tenzin Dickyi, & Richard Finney · January 22, 2021
The brutality of the Chinese regime. Again, thank you to RFA for reporting this kind of important information.
15. China tests Biden’s resolve on strategic flash point of Taiwan
Bloomberg · Kari Soo Lindberg · January 25, 2021
The question for the Biden administration is how do we demonstrate sufficient strategic reassurance and strategic resolve in the face of Chinese actions against Taiwan?
China is providing the Biden administration with a 100-day honeymoon.
16. Canada to join Quad joint naval exercise in Pacific Ocean
Hindustan Times · Anirudh Bhattacharyya · January 25, 2021
Good to see. We are going to have to find a new name for the Quad and Quad Plus. We need something more inclusive and that sends the message about the organization and intention of the "organziation."
17. The Case for an imperfect solution in Afghanistan
Bulwark · Sasha Kassam · January 25, 2021
Can division of a country be good? Who is to decide on the division? What about self-determination? Or would this be "great power determination" of what is good for it?
18. The climate crisis is worse than you can imagine. Here’s what happens if you try.
Pro Publica · Elizabeth Weil · January 25, 2021
He is a true believer.
19. The blob is addicted to overseas interventions
American Conservative · Doug Bandow · January 25, 2021
BS. "Promiscuous interventionists" – what a new description.
Please point out to me who wants war for the sake of having a war. Advocating overseas presence to protect US national interests does not mean such advocates are seeking war. The sheathed sword can be more effective when combined with other capabilities and actions. But the sword has to be credible, in the right place, and availability for use if and when necessary
20. To learn the Army’s ethic, officers should study the Army’s history
War On the Rocks · Theo Lipsky · January 25, 2021
21. Special Operations News Update - Monday, January 25, 2021
SOF News · January 25, 2021
"Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one."
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
“The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.”
- Aristotle
"Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practises a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression...“
-John Stuart Mill, On Liberty
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. N. Korean diplomat defects to S. Korea: source
2. N.K. propaganda outlet mentions Biden's election for first time
3. Seoul sticks to ‘peace process’ despite Washington's hint for new strategy for Pyongyang
4. ‘S. Korea-U.S. alliance is a lynchpin of Indo-Pacific,’ says Sullivan
5. S. Korea completes development of wheel-type command post for military
6. Moon's approval rating jumps to 43 pct after New Year's address: Realmeter
7. Korea to start coronavirus vaccinations next month
8. Comfort women victim says all she wants is apology
9. S. Korea aims to vaccinate 70 pct of population by Sept.
10. Minister hopes for 'wise' and 'flexible' solution to joint military drill issue
11. Minister says next few months important in creating atmosphere for resumption of talks with N. Korea
12. Former minister summoned for questioning on Wolsong-1 closure
13. ROK, US should reinforce alliance
14. Commercial banks call profit-sharing 'unfair'
15. North Korea's COVID-19 quarantine efforts appear to be full of holes
16. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light
17. N. Korean troops' uniform uncannily like S. Korea's
18. North Korean envoy defects in possible sign that Kim's power base is 'drifting'
19. South Korean police clear protesters blocking access to US Army-operated THAAD missile-defense battery
20. Korea under the rising sun: Japan's brutal World War II occupation
1. N. Korean diplomat defects to S. Korea: source
Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · January 25, 2021
Almost a year and a half ago? Must have been a long debriefing. Just now being reported. I imagine he has a lot of information about North Korea's global illicit activities.
2. N.K. propaganda outlet mentions Biden’s election for first time
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 25, 2021
I am sure the regime was very confused between November 3d and January 20th and may have had no idea who would really be the US president. But the Propaganda and Agitation department is taking a somewhat veiled swipe at the insurrection on January 6th.
3. Seoul sticks to ‘peace process’ despite Washington's hint for new strategy for Pyongyang
Dong-A Ilbo · January 25, 2021
Peace at any cost. This is going to be a problem for the alliance. If we do not have assumptions about the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned, we are going to have problems within the alliance. We must be able to synchronize alliance policy and strategy. Failure to do so provides an advantage to Kim Jong-Un and his political warfare strategy.
4. ‘S. Korea-U.S. alliance is a lynchpin of Indo-Pacific,’ says Sullivan
Dong-A Ilbo · tree624@donga.com · January 25, 2021
Note how the vocabulary transitions between administrations. For decades the ROK/US alliance has been the linchpin and the Japan/US alliance has been the cornerstone.
Note the Korean interpretation of the calls: every word will be parsed. It is imperative that we choose our words carefully when speaking to Koreans (those from both the North and South).
5. S. Korea completes development of wheel-type command post for military
Yonhap News Agency · 최수향 · January 25, 2021
A question for chem bio defense. It is nice that this tactical C2 vehicle will be equipped for chemical defense. But has the ROK military invested in sufficient chemical protective equipment with at least two suits and two sets of filters for all military personnel?
6. Moon’s approval rating jumps to 43 pct after New Year’s address: Realmeter
Yonhap News Agency · 이치동 · January 25, 2021
The people approve a good speech.
7. Korea to start coronavirus vaccinations next month
Chosun Ilbo · Woo Jeong-shik & Kim Sung-hyun · January 25, 2021
What vaccine are they purchasing? It does not say in the article. Are they getting it from China or Russia or from the US and European companies? Or did they get the formula from a company and authorization to produce the vaccine indigenously? We will probably read the reports telling people from where in the coming days.
8. Comfort women victim says all she wants is apology
Dong-A Ilbo · speakup@donga.com · January 25, 2021
It is not the apology she wants. It is Japan taking responsibility for its crimes against humanity.
According to some of my Korean friends, they have explained that Japan has apologized and in fact paid reparations in 1965 when Japan and South Korea normalized relations. But Japan has never admitted that what it did violated international law and was an abuse of human rights. That is what victims want. It is not another apology and monetary compensation; it is an acceptance of responsibility for wrongdoing.
9. S. Korea aims to vaccinate 70 pct of population by Sept.
Yonhap News Agency · 김수연 · January 25, 2021
More information on where they are procuring vaccines. I see no mention of Chinese or Russian vaccines and the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety has strict protocols for approval.
10. Minister hopes for 'wise' and 'flexible' solution to joint military drill issue
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · January 25, 2021
Dangerous. What Minister Lee really wants is to end exercises to try to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. I have written ad nauseum on this topic but giving North Korea this concession only harms the readiness of ROK/US forces. Most importantly, it will not change regime behavior, because it will be another indication of its successful political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy. The regime demands an end of exercises to weaken readiness, split the ROK/US alliance, and ultimately force the removal of US forces from the peninsula.
We have spent the last 2+ years cancelling, postponing, and scaling back exercises and there has been no reciprocity from the North. We have "tested" the Minister's "theory" and we have disproved it. Providing this concession to the regime has not resulted in any positive outcome and continuing to provide this concession will only put the security of the ROK at greater risk.
And, of course, failure to conduct combined training exercises will delay meeting the conditions for OPCON transition.
Minister Lee should limit his remarks and focus on work to devise plans for unification of Korea. He should not be making these kinds of statements.
It is this kind of thinking by the Minister that is going to increase alliance friction. This, of course, fully supports the regime's political warfare strategy with one line of effort called "divide to conquer" - divide the ROK/US alliance to conquer the ROK.
11. Minister says next few months important in creating atmosphere for resumption of talks with N. Korea
Yonhap News Agency · 고병준 · January 25, 2021
The "Lucy with Charlie Brown's football strategy" continues. Minister Lee must re-evaluate the assumption that the Kim family regime actually wants dialogue, cooperation, and co-existence. This flawed assumption is putting ROK security at great risk.
12. Former minister summoned for questioning on Wolsong-1 closure
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Kang Kwang-Soo & Sarah Kim · January 25, 2021
What needs to be questioned is the Moon administration's policy on eliminating nuclear power from Korea. Of course, the Moon administration should also be challenged on why a former minister is not allowed to freely express his expert opinion.
What should be questioned is whether someone is cooking the books on the economic analysis regarding the elimination of nuclear power in South Korea to support the administration's policy decision.
13. ROK, US should reinforce alliance
Korea Times · Park Jin · January 25, 2021
I will track this series. The people working on the Biden Administration's Korea policy review should track these recommendations. We might think reinforcing the alliance is a "no brainer." We need to keep in mind there will be no success on the Korean peninsula for either the US or the ROK without a rock solid ROK/US alliance.
14. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light
Korea Times · Lee Min-hyung · January 25, 2021
Does this sound like "from each according to his ability to each according to his need?"
15. North Korea's COVID-19 quarantine efforts appear to be full of holes
Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · January 25, 2021
I fear the amount of suffering, corruption, oppression, and incompetence in North Korea is at a level we can hardly comprehend.
So COVID-19 treatment is ideological based: Juche (self-reliance) will heal you.
On a less snarky note, we need to be vigilant in observing for the indications and warning of internal instability. As I have written, the conditions in North Korea could rival, if not be worse than, the conditions during the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996.
16. North Hamgyong Province official sacked after corruption comes to light
Daily NK · Jong So Yong · January 25, 2021
Again, I do not think we can appreciate the level of corruption inside North Korea and the regime.
17. N. Korean troops' uniform uncannily like S. Korea's
Chosun Ilbo · January 25, 2021
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. But perhaps these uniforms will be useful to sow confusion and distrust in the South when they infiltrate through the remaining 17 undiscovered tunnels under the DMZ. Imagine what will happen when such troops attack US forces: all personnel wearing these uniforms will then be treated as possible infiltrators. Think about what that will do for trust within the alliance.
18. North Korean envoy defects in possible sign that Kim’s power base is ‘drifting’
Guardian · Reuters · January 25, 2021
Again, based on reports this may have occurred in 2019. We should not over analyze and jump to the conclusion that Kim's power base is “drifting." But it does bear watching. We need to be watchful for the instability indicators.
19. South Korean police clear protesters blocking access to US Army-operated THAAD missile-defense battery
Stars & Stripes · Seth Robson & Yoo Kyong Chang · January 22, 2021
This is significant. These (very professional) protestors (or, I should say, protestors led by professional agitators?) have been blocking access to the THAAD battery site for years and the ROK government has done little to allow proper logistical support for the site.
We should keep in mind the THAAD system defends not only US and ROK forces but also the South Korean population from certain missile threats from the North.
20. Korea under the rising sun: Japan's brutal World War II occupation
National Interest · Warfare History Network · January 24, 2021
Why the Korean people have some feelings toward Japan.
"Divide and rule, a sound motto. Unite and lead, a better one."
- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
“The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.”
- Aristotle
"Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practises a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression...“
-John Stuart Mill, On Liberty
An old (Nov '20) but excellent podcast with Dr. Mara Karlin, the new Principle Assitant Security of Defense for International Security Affairs. This is a good primer for anyone curious what direction U.S. engagment with allies and partners may be going over the next 4 years.
https://mwi.usma.edu/the-practice-and-politics-of-security-force-assistance/
By Calin Trenkov-Wermuth and Paul M. Bisca
Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/01/global-fragility-act-chance-reshape-international-security-assistance
When the new U.S. administration gets to work, domestic priorities will be front and center on the agenda. Preventing state fragility and violent extremism abroad may seem less urgent. But implementing the Global Fragility Act (GFA)—which aims to fulfill those goals—should remain a top priority. Successfully advancing the GFA would directly benefit U.S. national security and help establish a more values-driven foreign policy. To this end, the United States should work with allies to create a global architecture for security sector assistance built on principles of aid effectiveness adapted from development financing. A U.S.-brokered international consensus on security assistance would help stabilize fragile states, prevent violence, and increase the value of dollars spent on the GFA.
The GFA marks a new approach in U.S. policy toward fragile states. It calls for all parts of the U.S. government to work out a coherent strategy and repurpose foreign assistance toward averting conflict and violent extremism. To achieve these goals, the GFA dedicates $1.15 billion over a 10-year time horizon for programs in five countries or regions. The GFA implementation strategy directs the State Department, the Department of Defense, and other agencies to promote meaningful reforms of security and justice sector institutions that increase legitimacy and reduce corruption. They should also work together to support legitimate, rights-respecting security institutions, capable of countering threats to stability, such as terrorist groups.
A shift in U.S. security sector assistance (SSA) toward advancing the good governance of armies and police is necessary. In Africa, a 2018 RAND Corporation study revealed that SSA has been highly inefficient and may have achieved the opposite of its objectives: U.S. assistance was not correlated with reductions in civil wars, terrorism, or state repression. In Afghanistan, the U.S. allocated $83 billion in security assistance since 2002, but the Afghan army and police have failed to subdue the Taliban—the group now exercises control or influence in at least half of the country. In Iraq, despite billions invested in training and equipment, local security forces disintegrated quickly in the face of the Islamic State in 2014 and remain dependent on U.S. assistance. The result is an approach to SSA that has been labeled “stuck in the past” and fails to efficiently build allies’ and partners’ capabilities.
The same problems undermine European SSA initiatives. In West Africa, these initiatives focus primarily on expensive efforts to help local security forces achieve military victory against violent extremists. This strategy may strengthen partner forces’ operational effectiveness in battle. But by neglecting security sector governance, European SSA may also make them less legitimate. France’s Operation Barkhane in Mali costs $800 million per year, dwarfing the EU’s security sector reform programs. However, Malian forces are prone to human rights violations, and successfully staged a coup d’état in August 2020.
The GFA is thus a chance for the U.S. security assistance to break with the past. In addition to repurposing its own instruments and approach, the United States should strive to create global norms for effective security assistance. Presently, there is no common framework or forum for Washington and its allies to decide what SSA initiatives to finance; how to find out which policies work and which have failed; or simply to have a data-driven debate on obstacles to success and lessons learned. International security sector assistance thus suffers from a massive deficit in global governance. The effects are perpetual cycles of violence, instability, and state fragility—precisely the problems that the GFA seeks to address.
