News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

2. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

3. Biden Freezes German Pullout Plans; 'Cradle to Grave' Review Underway

4. Defense secretary will order military-wide stand down to address extremism

5. China promotes education drive to make boys more 'manly'

6. No Substitute for Strategy: What's Wrong with "Defending Forward"

7. Analyze the failure of several special operations of the US military (google translation of a Chinese document)

8. China's politics as war by other means

9. 'Anonymous' author's paper on US' China strategy makes a buzz, has sharp message for India

10. Biden to visit State Dept. as US reengages with its allies

11. Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

12. Biden Commerce Pick Sees 'No Reason' to Lift Huawei Curbs

13. Biden's vow to champion global human rights tested by twin crises

14. US sends warship through Taiwan Strait for first time under Biden

15. Top Marine General: We Need to Get Comfortable with 'Throwaway' Equipment

16. The dangers of a Sino-American 'war' mentality

17. With Biden's 'full support,' the Space Force is officially here to stay

18. Exclusive: Suspected Chinese hackers used SolarWinds bug to spy on U.S. payroll agency - sources

19. S. Korea, Singapore ranked top for innovation worldwide

 

1. BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

news.cgtn.com

Admit nothing. Deny Everything. Make counter accusations. 

BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

 

2. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

usip.org

The 88 page final report can be downloaded here: 

Summary conclusion: By focusing on the single objective of achieving an acceptable peace agreement that ends the conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan government, U.S. messaging, policies, and actions can finally be aligned. The purpose of the U.S. troop presence should also be clear: not to pursue an endless war but to support a peace process that will allow American troops to return home under conditions that guarantee our national interests.

 

3. Biden Freezes German Pullout Plans; 'Cradle to Grave' Review Underway

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

This excerpt illustrates why it is so hard to alter basing arrangements and agreements.  It is nice to try to think  about the optimal structures and basing locations and to say our basing structure around the world is an anachronism and a legacy of the Cold War (and WWII and the Korean War).  But I think in general we need to work with what we have, not give up the high ground (unless we can seize even higher ground) and while always seeking improvements protect the capabilities (and locations that we already have). 

Excerpts:

“Overall, the plan would bring roughly 6,400 service members home and reposition 5,600 elsewhere in Europe, including possibly moving troops to the Baltic nations and Poland. The move would leave 24,000 troops in Germany.

In order for that to happen, complex basing and legal issues would have to be resolved with the host nations, a process that could take months, if not years, given the scale of the changes proposed.

The plan included moving 2,000 troops from EUCOM headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, to Mons, Belgium. Africa Command's headquarters, also in Germany, is also likely to move to Spain or Italy. Additionally, 4,500 members of the Second Cavalry Regiment in Germany will return to the US and begin rotations in the Black Sea region. Elsewhere, the 2,500 airmen scheduled to deploy to Germany from the U.K. would remain in the U.K., while an F-16 squadron would be sent to Italy.

Wolters today acknowledged that the process was complicated, and "there were so many pieces and parts to the plan we could probably sit here for weeks" talking about "the depth and how far along we were putting in all those cases; there were branches and sequels with multiple options. So I will just tell you that the new administration comfortably stated to us that we need to conduct a thorough review cradle to grave, in all areas."

 

4. Defense secretary will order military-wide stand down to address extremism

Stars and Stripes

We need to be careful to not play into the extremists' narratives.

Key point: "So, where is it? It's just not clear," Kirby said Wednesday. "I think with respect to those statistics - the secretary, too, is frustrated that this is an issue and that we don't have better visibility, a better understanding of it."

 

5. China promotes education drive to make boys more 'manly'

BBC  Kerry Allen· February 4, 2021

Translated, that probably means more misogynist. 

But in addition to the obvious memes that will result from this, there should be some useful themes and messages that can be developed.  Also this is a data point to assist in cultural understanding.

 

6. No Substitute for Strategy: What's Wrong with "Defending Forward"

The National Interest · by Gil Barndollar · February 3, 2021

This is quite a comprehensive (and brutal) critique of our work (though I am disappointed they did not criticize our Korea and Japan sections of our monograph).  Obviously I strongly disagree with this analysis and I stand by our work.

Their conclusion: "Strategy, grand or otherwise, is about choice. It is about setting priorities. President Biden has a golden opportunity to transform, not restore: to replace the blustering incompetence of the Trump years with a humbler, saner American foreign policy, one that rejects the hubris that helped put Trump in the White House. Defending Forward does promise a restoration of sorts: a restoration of the worst foreign policy ideas since the end of the Cold War. The president would do well to reject it-and its votaries."

Since none of their links seem to work here is the link to our Defending Forward monograph so you may judge for yourself:  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/

 

7. Analyze the failure of several special operations of the US military (google translation of a Chinese document)

http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-02/04/content_282206.htm

This is from the PLA analyzing US special operations.  This is a google translation from the Chinese but it is sufficient to get the gist of the critique from the Chinese perspective.

It categorizes US "errors" into the following categories:

Wrong mentality:

Intelligence error:

Plan error:

Command error:

Equipment error:

It is also interesting to note which operations they have selected to provide evidence to support their critique.

 

8. China's politics as war by other means

asiatimes.com · by Francesco Sisci · February 4, 2021

I have been arguing this for years.  We should remember what Mao said: "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."

My graphic depiction based on the NSS and NDS.

 

9. 'Anonymous' author's paper on US' China strategy makes a buzz, has sharp message for India

theprint.in · February 4, 2021

So who is "Anonymous?"

An Indian perspective:

“For Delhi, the US strategy underlines the background against which our own strategic 'propositions' have to be weighed.

First, this decade will see a China that, through Xi Jinping and his coterie, sees itself as almost equal to the US. That's not the kind of power that will respect any boundaries, unresolved or otherwise. Nor is it likely to see India as a 'pole' in Asia. Second, that very rise presages certain conflicts. Whether that is good for India or not is a matter of pressing consideration. Third, this is as clear a statement as ever of the limits of US commitment to be a 'balancer' in this part of the world. This raises the question of some limited bandwagoning with China as it continues its onward march, now taking much of Europe along after a critical investment agreement.

For India, China still remains the 'largest source of critical items'. That could actually be the 'long view' if current border tensions were amicably dealt with first. The problem is that China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Zhao Lijian flatly refused to link the border issue with development of bilateral relations, a statement that falls neatly into Jaishankar's 'unacceptable' criteria, as it should. Alternative to bandwagoning, it may be time for India to deliver a light blow, leaving the actual punch to better-armed friends. That should be done in the full knowledge that there's no one behind you other than a very valiant Indian Army. But then we always knew that, any number of US strategies notwithstanding.

 

10. Biden to visit State Dept. as US reengages with its allies

AP · by Matthew Lee and Zeke Miller · February 4, 2021

We should all take a deep breath.  Everyone will be listening for the President to talk about each of our areas of focus and we will be miffed if he does not mention our specifically.  He cannot cover everything and the purpose of this visit (I think) is to focus on our great diplomats and civil servants who continue to do the work of unsung heroes.  I think  Ms. Psaki, the White House spokesperson, is correct to try to help us manage expectations. - I think the characterization in the first sentence is correct - he is sending a message to his messengers.

 

11. Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

The Washington Post· by Craig Timberg and Eva Dou · February 4, 2021

Yes we have provided myriad opportunities for China to exploit.  The January 6th insurrectionists were aiding and abetting China by their actions.

Excerpts:

“The videos compare the Capitol siege to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019, saying that outrage about the Jan. 6 attack showed an "American double standard" given that Hong Kong's protests were praised by some U.S. officials, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Hours before the Capitol riot, Hong Kong authorities arrested dozens of members of the political opposition, effectively neutralizing the city's democracy movement. The unprecedented move came as the United States was distracted by the Senate runoffs in Georgia and then the riot.

After the Capitol attack, China's propaganda apparatus quickly seized on the opportunity to point out that Hong Kong's legislature was also trashed by rioters and argue that China was only doing the same thing as the United States by restoring law and order.

The Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times tweeted, "@SpeakerPelosi once referred to the Hong Kong riots as 'a beautiful sight to behold' - it remains yet to be seen whether she will say the same about the recent developments in Capitol Hill."

Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

 

12. Biden Commerce Pick Sees 'No Reason' to Lift Huawei Curbs

Bloomberg · by Eric Martin · February 4, 2021

Some continuity.

 

13. Biden's vow to champion global human rights tested by twin crises

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

The international community did not get the memo on the first 100 day honeymoon for the new administration.

On a serious note these are critical human rights crises.  But I would be remiss in not mentioning one of the worst human rights problems (in addition to the Uighurs in China) is the suffering of the 25 millions Koreans living in the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

14. US sends warship through Taiwan Strait for first time under Biden

CNN · by CNN staff

 

15. Top Marine General: We Need to Get Comfortable with 'Throwaway' Equipment

military.com · by Gina Harkins · February 2, 2021

Everything classified as non-repairable class IX.  Joe (the young troop not POTUS) will love that.  No more change of command inventories if everything is "throwaway?"  (Note my sarcasm).

Class I - Rations - Subsistence (food and drinking water), gratuitous (free) health and comfort items.

Class II - Clothing And Equipment - individual equipment, tentage, some aerial delivery equipment, organizational tool sets and kits, hand tools, unclassified maps, administrative and housekeeping supplies and equipment.

Class III - POL - Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) (package and bulk): Petroleum, fuels, lubricants, hydraulic and insulating oils, preservatives, liquids and gases, bulk chemical products, coolants, deicer and antifreeze compounds, components, and additives of petroleum and chemical products, and coal.

Class IV - Construction materials, including installed equipment and all fortification and barrier materials.

Class V - Ammunition of all types, bombs, explosives, mines, fuses, detonators, pyrotechnics, missiles, rockets, propellants, and associated items.

Class VI - Personal demand items (such as health and hygiene products, soaps and toothpaste, writing material, snack food, beverages, cigarettes, batteries, alcohol, and cameras-nonmilitary sales items).

Class VII - Major end items such as launchers, tanks, mobile machine shops, some parachute systems and vehicles.

Class VIII - Medical material (equipment and consumables) including repair parts peculiar to medical equipment. (Class VIIIa - Medical consumable supplies not including blood & blood products; Class VIIIb - Blood & blood components (whole blood, platelets, plasma, packed red cells, etc.).

Class IX - Repair parts and components to include kits, assemblies, and subassemblies (repairable or non-repairable) required for maintenance support of all equipment.

Class X - Material to support nonmilitary programs such as agriculture and economic development (not included in Classes I through IX).

Miscellaneous - Water, salvage, and captured material.

 

16. The dangers of a Sino-American 'war' mentality

aspistrategist.org.au · by Simon Tay and Jessica Wau · February 4, 2021

A perspective from Singapore.

But  China already has a "war" mentality - politics is war by other means. It practices unrestricted warfare.  It uses the "three warfares" (psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media warfare) 

 

17. With Biden's 'full support,' the Space Force is officially here to stay

Defense News · by Valerie Insinna · February 3, 2021

The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military mind is getting an old one out. The Space Force is already an "old" idea and it is not going away.

 

18. Exclusive: Suspected Chinese hackers used SolarWinds bug to spy on U.S. payroll agency - sources

Reuters · by Christopher Bing, Raphael Satter, Joesph Menn, and Jack Stubbs· February 4, 2021

Again, this should be no surprise.

 

19. S. Korea, Singapore ranked top for innovation worldwide

straitstimes.com · February 4, 2021

Note:  I do not see any authoritarian regimes in the top 11.  Buried lede: the US is number 11.

 

--------

 

He had asked his father to pray for him, "Not for my safe return, that wouldn't be fair. Just pray that I shall do my duty...never be a coward...and have the strength, courage and understanding of men. Just pray that I shall be adequate."

- Chaplain Clark Poling  (one of the Four Chaplains)

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution."

- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States

 

"If you hide your ignorance, no one will hit you and you'll never learn."  

- Ray Bradbury
 

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. Moon, Biden to map out 'comprehensive' N. Korea strategy together

2. [ANALYSIS] 'Moon, Biden urged to narrow differences on North Korea'

3. Moon, Biden plan to strengthen alliance in dealing with North Korea

4. Joint strategy on North: Allies should cooperate for regional peace

5. Moon gets phone time with Joe Biden at last

6. Moon, Biden signal fresh restart of peace process on Korean Peninsula

7. S. Korea, U.S. discussing how to hold combined exercise amid pandemic: defense ministry

8. Pentagon: Military readiness is the number one priority

9. Iran to Pay UN Dues with Money Frozen in Korea

10. North Korea's Systematic Rights Violations May Amount to Crimes Against Humanity, UN Says

11. North Korea to receive nearly 2 million Covid-19 vaccine doses from WHO

12. N. Korea to convene congress of largest youth association to support party decisions

13. Defector says North Korea 'popular uprising' likely

14. South Korea's military has big problems that are much closer to home than North Korea

15. Sydney man accused of trying to broker North Korea missile sales spoke of connection to Kim Jong-un, court told

16. Secret inter-Korean nuke cooperation rumors officially blasted

17. US Forces Korea to ease coronavirus restrictions for some troops on the peninsula

18. Fewer N.Koreans Escape During Lockdown

 

1. Moon, Biden to map out 'comprehensive' N. Korea strategy together

en.yna.co.kr · by 이치동 · February 4, 2021

Finally they have their phone call.  That is good news.  I am gratified to hear they want to map out an alliance strategy.  Now the real work begins.

Beware the different timelines for both administrations: Biden: long term - Moon: achievements necessary by fall in time for the next election cycle.

The critical action required for an effective comprehensive north Korean strategy is to get the strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime sufficiently aligned.

Next is to determine what is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will protect, serve, and advance alliance interests in Northeast Asia. 

Once agreement can be reached on these two critical tasks the ways and means of a comprehensive strategy can be laid out.

Start by answering the 5 key questions:

 

1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?

2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

 

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government with respect for individual liberty, the rule of law, and human rights, determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

My personal bias: The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. 

 

2. [ANALYSIS] 'Moon, Biden urged to narrow differences on North Korea'

The Korea Times · February 4, 2021

The single most important difference is the strategic assumption about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.  These must be sufficiently aligned (yes I am beating a dead horse here and I will continue to do so until we get this right).  If we can get these assumptions right all else will fall into place.

 

3. Moon, Biden plan to strengthen alliance in dealing with North Korea

upi.com· by Thomas Maresca · February 4, 2021

Every time I read that leaders want to strengthen the alliance I always think: Have any leaders ever said they want to weaken the alliance?

 

4. Joint strategy on North: Allies should cooperate for regional peace

The Korea Times · February 4, 2021

It is good to see the Korea Times editorial board and other media and pundits call for a joint (combined) strategy toward north Korea.

Note some of the key points of alliance friction:  "But it is also true that the two countries face some thorny issues such as defense cost-sharing for the upkeep of American troops here and Seoul's bid to take over wartime operational control of its troops from the U.S. military. These issues can be tackled smoothly if both sides make compromise to boost mutual interests. It is also worth noting that Moon and Biden shared the view that an improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan is pivotal to solidifying trilateral security partnerships. We hope the U.S. president will play a certain role in helping Seoul and Tokyo mend their estranged ties over historical issues such as wartime sex slavery and forced labor."

 

5. Moon gets phone time with Joe Biden at last

koreajoongangdaily.joins.com· by Ser Myo-Ja and Yoo Jee-Hye

This is how the Koreans view it.  The late phone call is interpreted by some as a slight.  Not the comment that neither the White House nor the Blue House statements mentioned China.

We should remember that the new SECDEF and new SECSTATE made phone calls relatively soon to their Korean counterparts.  And we should not forget that President Biden wrote one OpEd in the foreign press before the election and that was in the Korean media which should indicate the importance he places on Korea.

 

6. Moon, Biden signal fresh restart of peace process on Korean Peninsula

koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · February 4, 2021

I wonder what the laughter was all about.

Key points:

“Most notably, they reaffirmed their shared goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula, pledging to promptly draw up a joint strategy on the North Korea issue.

Moon stressed joint efforts to advance the peace-building process, while Biden praised Seoul’s efforts so far, adding that it is important for the allies to maintain a shared stance on the matter.

They also agreed to ramp up efforts to improve Seoul-Tokyo relations as part of building stronger trilateral ties.

...

Concluding their conversation, the leaders agreed to hold summit talks as soon as possible once the coronavirus situation is stabilized, citing the value of a face-to-face meeting.

Many expect positive synergy between the two liberal leaders, who have made issues like climate change and human rights central to their platforms. Since the administrations of former President Kim Dae-jung and President Bill Clinton in 1998-2001, it is the first time in two decades that the two nations have had liberal presidents at the same time.”

 

7. S. Korea, U.S. discussing how to hold combined exercise amid pandemic: defense ministry

en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 4, 2021

We did a good job in August when there were no cases of COVID among the ROK/US CFC headquarters staff and components.

That said we should have been vaccinating all members of the combined staffs, ROK and US personnel, a month ago to ensure all have vaccinations well before the exercises begin.

There is a key question that should be asked regards this excerpt: "Since 2018, South Korea and the U.S. have either canceled or scaled back joint drills to back diplomacy with North Korea."  What benefits has the alliance derived from scaling back or posting, or cancelling exercises for the past two years?

 

8. Pentagon: Military readiness is the number one priority

donga.com· February 4, 2021

If deterrence of war, defense of the ROK, and defeat of the nKPA should it attack is the mission the ROK and US governments have given the ROK/US Combined Forces Command how could readiness of ROK and US combined force not be the top priority?  They do have to be ready to "fight tonight."

Of course, as I have written, if we truly want to be ready we would have already administered COVID vaccinations to all military personnel in the ROK/US Combined Forces Command headquarters and the combined component HQ.

 

9. Iran to Pay UN Dues with Money Frozen in Korea

english.chosun.com· February 4, 2021

Hmmm...."blackmail diplomacy?"

 

10. North Korea's Systematic Rights Violations May Amount to Crimes Against Humanity, UN Says

voanews.com · By Lisa Schlein

May amount to?  I think the 2014 UN Commission of Inquiry was pretty clear with its recommendation to refer Kim Jong-un to the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.

 

11. North Korea to receive nearly 2 million Covid-19 vaccine doses from WHO

straitstimes.com · February 4, 2021

Enough for the elite but what about the other 23 million Koreans in the north?

 

12. N. Korea to convene congress of largest youth association to support party decisions

en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 4, 2021

Mobilize the youth for propaganda purposes.

 

13. Defector says North Korea 'popular uprising' likely

upi.com

There is so much to parse on this.

No one should get their hopes up and think this could be a benign event.  It could be catastrophic if it occurs.  Which is why we must be paying close attention to the indications and warnings and dusting off the contingency plans.

Recall back in the 1990's the DCI said north Korea would attack the south, collapse/implode or there would be peaceful unification.  Marcus Noland said it could (and did) also "muddle through."  (https://t.co/htVh0whVxh?amp=1) Of course, it did muddle through for a number of reasons to include all the aid it received from the Sunshine Policy and Peace and Prosperity from 1997-2007 (which allowed it to detonate its first nuclear device in 2006).  Note to analysts: always include muddle through as a possible course of action.

We have to observe for the indicators of instability.  The conditions in north Korea could be brewing the perfect storm. 

As an example, there are reports north Korea has 24 COVID-19 quarantine facilities for the military. This is a very important indicator.  I think we can assess the regime is very concerned about a COVID outbreak within the military (as am I).  I hope we are surveilling and assessing the activity at these facilities.   

It may be time to begin to review plans for north Korea instability and regime collapse.  Recall the definition of regime collapse that Bob Collins and I developed for the original CONPLAN 5029 planning:  "Loss of central governing effectiveness of the regime/party combined with loss of coherency and support of the military." 

The regime will collapse when the regime/party can no longer govern across the north from Pyongyang combined with the breakdown of the military (and its three chains of control - military, political, and security) so that the military can no longer support the regime.  This leads to uncertainty and complexity about what can happen next 

Let me reprise this article in which Bob Collins and I discuss north Korean contingencies to include regime collapse (and Bob lays out the 7 phases of regime collapse). 

“When North Korea Falls”

The furor over Kim Jong Il’s missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship obscures the real threat: the prospect of North Korea’s catastrophic collapse. How the regime ends could determine the balance of power in Asia for decades. The likely winner? China” 

ROBERT D. KAPLAN 

OCTOBER 2006 ISSUE 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2006/10/when-north-korea-falls/305228/ 

 Here is a link to my 1996 Monograph following the Arduous March of the great famine of 1994-1996 

 “The Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the U.S. Military” 

https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a314274.pdf 

 

14. South Korea's military has big problems that are much closer to home than North Korea

Business Insider · by Benjamin Brimelow

I would just offer whatever happens on the Korean peninsula will require a huge commitment of manpower.  Any contingency from war to regime collapse to post conflict/collapse stability operations to dealing with resistance and political violence in the north  will be manpower intensive.

This is one of the great benefits of the UN Command.  It provides the opportunity and capability for the international community to commit manpower that could be decisive for the long term success on the Korean peninsula.

 

15. Sydney man accused of trying to broker North Korea missile sales spoke of connection to Kim Jong-un, court told

The Guardian · February 3, 2021

This is the first report I have seen on this incident.  It does seem rather farfetched though in today's networked world of internet communications it may be possible.

I think if the prosecutor rests the case on confirmation from north Korea that this accused knows Kim Jong-un or any senior north Korea official, the case will fail.  north Korea will not cooperate to corroborate the prosecutor's allegations.

That said if I were advising the prosecution, I would contact north Korea escapees/defectors who once worked for the regime in Department or Office 39.  They may be able to corroborate the allegations.  It is possible the accused was dealing with brokers and himself acting as middleman to try to arrange deals.

But based on this article alone it would seem to me the accused may be delusional and acting out fantasies on the internet.  I would need more information to make a more informed judgment.
 

16. Secret inter-Korean nuke cooperation rumors officially blasted

asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · February 3, 2021

I do not think this issue will be going away soon.

 

17. US Forces Korea to ease coronavirus restrictions for some troops on the peninsula

Stars and Stripes· by Matthew Keller · February 3, 2021

 

18. Fewer N.Koreans Escape During Lockdown

english.chosun.com · February 3, 2021

The regime's draconian population and resources control measures are having an effect.

 

-----------

 

Quotes of the Day:

 

He had asked his father to pray for him, "Not for my safe return, that wouldn't be fair. Just pray that I shall do my duty...never be a coward...and have the strength, courage and understanding of men. Just pray that I shall be adequate."

- Chaplain Clark Poling  (one of the Four Chaplains)

 

“There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution.”
- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States

 

"If you hide your ignorance, no one will hit you and you'll never learn."  

- Ray Bradbury

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. This Is Not the Time to Wrest Wartime Troop Control from U.S.

2.  [INTERVIEW] Ex-US Forces Korea chief says combined drills must continue

3. Challenges Korea faces

4. Pukkuksong-5: Why North Korea's New Solid-Fuel Missile Is a Problem

5. North Korea's Hwasong-16 ICBM: What We Know

6. Unification minister says S. Korea 'sufficiently' communicating with U.S. on anti-leaflet law

7. South Korea urges U.S. flexibility on sanctions to restart North Korea talks

8. Opinion | A culture war is brewing in North Korea. It shows Kim Jong Un’s deepest fear.

9. Declare end to Korean War, activist groups unite to tell Biden

10. Seoul-Tokyo cooperation vital to regional peace: Pentagon

11. Seoul says it can't accept Japan's 'unjust complaint' over defense white paper

12. What South Korea and China Do Together on North Korea Depends on Biden

13. North Korea Mobilizes Citizens for Kim Jong Il Birth Celebration Amid Covid-19, Cold Temperatures

14. 19 sailors held by Iran to be released, but captain still detained

15. Nampho Container Port Remains Active Despite Continued Border Closures

16. North Korea creates new biotech information center in State Academy of Sciences

 

1.  This Is Not the Time to Wrest Wartime Troop Control from U.S.

english.chosun.com

Please stop the madness. There is so much wrong with this article (but with a couple of good points).  Korea is not wresting wartime control from the US.  The ROK government will not be put in charge of US Forces Korea just as the US government is not in control of Korean forces in wartime.  Yes, the US is not going to hand over control of nuclear weapons to anyone.  It does not even provide nuclear weapons to the current US commander in Korea. The decision to launch or release US nuclear weapons will always remain with the US leadership in Washington. And I doubt any nuclear weapon employed against north Korea would be launched from South Korean territory.  Neither a ROK or US commander of the ROK/US CFC will have control over US strategic weapons.  Both would have to make recommendations and request their employment.  But all of this illustrates the lack of understanding of the OPCON transition process.

This is the fundamental problem we have had with OPCON transition since Rumsfeld envisioned it in his office in January of 2003 when he informed (with no coordination among US government agencies or even with the US commander in Korea, General LaPorte who only learned of the intention in that meeting) then President-elect Roh's envoys he wanted to transition OPCON and move US forces out of Seoul and away from the DMZ to locations south of the Han River (out of north Korean artillery range).  The alliance has never had an information plan to be able to inform and educate the press, the public (in both countries), the pundits, and the politicos.  

But this question goes back to "first principles;" How should the ROK and US militaries organize, train, and equip their forces to accomplish the mission of deterrence, defense of the ROK, defeat of the nKPA, and support to achieving the acceptable durable political arrangement that will serve, protect, and advance alliance interests and ensure security?  The objective answer to this question is what should guide the way ahead.

 

2.  Ex-US Forces Korea chief says combined drills must continue

The Korea Times – by Kang Seung-woo - February 3, 2021

Of course I concur. And I would add that this simple statement needs to be emphasized and I will keep repeating it:  Failure to meet the conditions of OPCON transition will put the security of the ROK at grave risk. The conditions based transition process is designed to ensure the security of the ROK and the safety of the Korean people.

And we need to conduct theater level computer assisted training in order to ensure the readiness of the ROK/US CFC headquarters and components and to move the OPCON transition process forward. 

There is a real cognitive dissonance in South Korea. There is the demand for OPCON transition on a timeline while at the same time a willingness to negotiate away ROK/US combined training exercise as a concession to the north in the hopes that the north will not conduct a provocation or raise tensions and will instead return to talks.  This equation does not add up for multiple reasons.   The Korea military and professional diplomatic corps knows this but the politicians in the Moon administration with their peace at any cost agenda do not understand military operations let alone the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.

We need to stand up to north Korea and the simplest way to do that is to sustain training and readiness exercises.  Otherwise, Kim Jong-un will double down on his political warfare strategy and use of blackmail diplomacy to gain political and economic concessions. Giving into the north's demands on exercises will only embolden the regime and make things worse for diplomacy and the for the security of the ROK.

 

3. Challenges Korea faces

The Korea Times – by Park Yoon-bae - February 3, 2021

north Korea nuclear weapons and China-US competition.

On the one hand we can argue Korea must make a choice in dealing with both the nuclear threat and the competition challenge.  On the other hand, the author and others argue for Korean "independence" and maintaining a balance between the two. I think this is a fantasy and wishful thinking.  Walking the tightrope between China and the US along with the nuclear threat from the north will likely result in the Korean adage being realized; when whales wrestle, shrimp die.  There is a third way that I have heard Korean diplomatic and military professionals understanding.  The ROK long ago made a choice when it allied with the US.  Regardless of the economic ties with China and their importance, the security of the ROK is ensured by its alliance with the US.  That needs to be the first priority for the ROK; sustaining the alliance.

 

4.  Pukkuksong-5: Why North Korea's New Solid-Fuel Missile Is a Problem

The National Interest · by Markus V. Garlauskas · February 1, 2021

I missed this the other day from the former National Intelligence Officer for Korea.  We should worry about solid fueled ICBMs in the future.

Excerpts:

However, simply because it is difficult does not mean that North Korea will not eventually be able to build solid-propellant ICBMs. If these could be proven reliable and fielded in sufficient numbers, solid-fuel ICBMs would be a major step forward for North Korea’s military, presenting the potential for a robust and prompt North Korean “second strike” capability from mobile land-based launchers. “Second strike” capability is essentially the pinnacle of nuclear deterrence, meaning that a country, even after suffering an initial all-out attack from an adversary (a “first strike”) can still retaliate against the adversary’s homeland with nuclear weapons to inflict unacceptable losses.

In practical terms, solid-fuel ICBMs, more easily hidden and protected—with no requirement to be fueled before launch—could pose a far more viable threat of rapid retaliation against the continental United States. Though liquid-fueled ICBMs could play a “second strike” role if hidden in underground facilities, conventional wisdom suggests that such units would be less likely to remain operational and return fire before they or their fueling support are destroyed.

As a result, a solid-fuel ICBM force could provide Pyongyang with greater confidence in its ability to drive a confrontation while maintaining control of escalation. It could keep such missiles more safely in reserve as the ultimate threat to deter the US from ending the regime. Therefore, North Korea’s fielding of solid-fuel ICBMs would pose an expanded threat to regional stability and US interests, even if the odds are remote that North Korea would use them to strike the United States.

 

5. North Korea's Hwasong-16 ICBM: What We Know

19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · February 2, 2021

Excerpt: "Beyond estimates of the Hwasong-16’s capabilities, questions exist regarding the new system’s strategic value. Some have suggested that the Hwasong-16 offers little that North Korea’s existing missiles – and the Hwasong-15 in particular – did not already offer; indeed, both systems appear capable of targeting the entirety of the U.S. mainland, while the extra payload capacity of the Hwasong-16 offers little extra strategic value. Others have focused on potential deficiencies in the design and capability of the new missile, pointing out that the missile’s size makes deploying the missile a challenge and highlighting the limited survivability of yet another liquid-fueled weapon system."

 

6. Unification minister says S. Korea 'sufficiently' communicating with U.S. on anti-leaflet law

en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 3, 2021

So who is Mr. Lee's counterpart in the US government?

Let me reprise my previous comments on the anti-leaflet law.  My comments include some of the arguments that I am sure are being communicated to the US government by ROK officials.

As much as I disagree with the law and think it is a major strategic national security mistake, I think it is important to examine the ROK rationale.

First and foremost, this seems to be about a "threat to life’ and "threat to property."  There are 1.12 million South Korean residents near the DMZ.  Some of them have also consistently called for a stop to leaflet drops since the North Korean firing of anti-aircraft rounds in 2014 to shoot down balloons carrying leaflets.  The 2014 incident is one of the only incidents I recall where this has happened.  I do not think there has ever been any loss of life due to leaflet operations.  But as I have said the way to protect citizens and property is not through appeasement of the north which will only invite more threats and blackmail diplomacy from the Kim family regime.

The Moon administration defends its human rights approach by arguing along these lines: Every year, the ROK government formulates plans to promote North Korean human rights and is making multi-faceted efforts policy-wise to resolve humanitarian issues involving separated families, South Korean prisoners of war, and abductees and to raise public awareness about the importance of improving human rights conditions in North Korea.  Color me skeptical.

The Moon administration also makes the case the leaflet law is in keeping with agreements between the South and north.  They have repeatedly agreed to stop mutual slander and defamation and ban the scattering of leaflets, starting from the July 4 South-North Korea Joint Statement (1972) to the Agreement on Reconciliation, Nonaggression, and Exchanges and Cooperation Between the South and the North (1991) and to the Panmunjom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity, and Unification of the Korean Peninsula (2018).  I respect the ROK for trying to maintain the moral high ground here and they could do this by helping the escapees to take a more professional and sophisticated approach to information and influence.  There is no need to slander and defame Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong.  All they need to do is simply provide information and news, and the truth.  There is no need for insults and derogatory attacks against the north. In fact one of the most powerful propaganda tools employed lately was the Netflix K-drama "Crash landing On You" that portrayed the north Korean People's Army soldiers as human beings and not ugly automatons and monsters.  According to escapees one of the reasons for its powerful positive influence in the north was because of that and when I asked former north Korea soldiers how they thought current north Korean soldiers are reacting to the K-drama they said they desire to come to the South even more than than did before.

The Moon administration compares their actions to US actions and legal rulings. While guaranteeing the full exercise of freedom of expression as stipulated in the Constitution of the ROK, the amendment (law) puts limitations to the minimum extent necessary to protect people’s lives and safety and in a way that also conforms to the U.S. Supreme Court rulings.  They will cite Ward v. Rock Against Racism (1989): The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that restrictions of freedom of expression are permissible so long as they are without reference to the content of the regulated speech, narrowly tailored to serve a significant governmental interest, and leave open ample alternative channels for communication of the information.  I am far from a legal scholar and while this may hold water legally I still think despite the apparent legality it is a strategic national security error because it is appeasing north Korean demands based on threats -it is giving in to coercion/extortion or blackmail diplomacy. And Kim Yo-jong and her brother and the regime should be expected to double down on its blackmail diplomacy to support its political warfare strategy.

In addition the ROK government argues the amendment does not run counter to the U.S. Government’s human rights policies that seek to enhance access to information for people living in repressed societies such as a socialist state.  The ROK Government argues is of the same view that it is important that North Koreans have access to information and that it is necessary to bring about positive changes to North Korean society by promoting it. Korea is also striving to have external information flow into the North in various ways – for instance, Korea’s public broadcaster KBS is running ‘Korean National (Hanminjok) AM Radio’ channel transmitted to the North. The ROK government also argues Ø we should consider the fact that, even without leaflet drops, the North Korean society can already easily access South Korean TV series and movies through 6 million-plus mobile phones, 400-plus street markets (known as Jangmadang), and information exchanges in areas bordering China. Fundamentally the ROK government argues it is their basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects.  I do strongly agree with the ROK Government’s basic position that it is more effective to create conditions for North Koreans to be naturally exposed to South Korean culture and information through inter-Korean movements and interactions rather than to send anti-North Korean leaflets that have various side effects. However, I would also argue that the ROK government (with the help of the US and escapees from the north) must aggressively embrace their responsibility to get information into the north and use all means available to do so, despite north Korean regime opposition. And the ROK government could help the escapees with their messaging and shift from the blatant anti-north Korea derogatory and insulting rhetoric to more effective messaging.  We shouldn't be throwing the baby out with the bathwater. There is too much good being done by the escapees and they could do much more with government and international help.

The answer to this issue is not to pass a law banning leaflets.  it would be for the ROK, with US support, to adopt a sophisticated and holistic approach to information and influence activities.  They should help the escapees with their mission and give them support and advise them on how to shape their activities to maintain the moral high ground and act in keeping with north-South agreements.  They would maintain the human rights high ground by helping the Korean people in the north gain access to information that is denied by the regime.

Here are the recommendations my colleague Mathew Ha and I made in our Plan B strategy for north Korea (https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2019/12/3/maximum-pressure-2/)

 

7. South Korea urges U.S. flexibility on sanctions to restart North Korea talks

Reuters · by Hyonhee Shin · February 3, 2021

"Flexibility" means concessions - specifically sanctions relief.
I think we have to understand the two different clocks that the ROK and US are using.  The Biden administration is just getting its feet on the ground and plans to conduct a north Korea policy review and chart a long term way ahead (which I hope will include the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and the solution to the "Korea question."). On the US side the clock is moving slowly and deliberately and the Biden administration wants to develop effective long teng term policies and strategy.  On the Korean side the clock is moving very fast.  The Moon administration is coming to an end and by this fall it will be solely focused on the elections.  Therefore it has very little time to accomplish something with north Korea, both to solidify Moon's legacy and help his party in the next election.  I think we have to recognize the challenge the Moon administration faces on many issues (OPCON transition, SMA, China-US competition, etc) in addition to north Korea and it needs to show results in the coming months.  I think this will be guiding Moon administration engagement and decision making.

 

8. Opinion | A culture war is brewing in North Korea. It shows Kim Jong Un’s deepest fear.

The Washington Post · by Opinion by Olivia Schieber · February 2, 2021

Excellent article.  

Again to reprise Dr. Jung Pak's most important question: Who does Kim fear the most? The US or the Korean people living in the north?

Imagine if we planned and executed a comprehensive information and influence activities campaign.

Unfortunately there is this sober conclusion:

Ironically, totalitarian North Korea is being helped in its new Big Brother campaign by the government of South Korea. Human rights activists on the South Korean side periodically use balloons to send notes containing information about life in South Korea and anti-North Korean messages (as well as Bibles, food, medicine and mini-radios). Pyongyang has long viewed these airdrops as an “act of hostility.” Since defectors cite the leaflets as one catalyst for their defections, it’s no surprise that North Korea takes drastic measures to suppress them. Lately, however, North Korea has succeeded in bullying the South Korean government into playing along. Seoul has now banned the airdropping of materials over North Korea, threatening offenders with up to three years in jail or $27,400 in fines.

The United States and South Korea are favored scapegoats for North Korea’s woes. But as the Great Leader’s admission of trouble in socialist paradise at his own party congress and the ruthless crackdown on information make clear, the power Kim fears most is his people’s.

 

9. Declare end to Korean War, activist groups unite to tell Biden

Newsweek · by Tom O'Connor · February 2, 2021

It is important to understand the views and connections of people who make such recommendations.  It is important to understand the north Korean influence over the "peace movement" here in the US.  I call your attention to Joshua Stanton's assessment here: Christine Ahn, Pak Chol, and the United Front Department, https://freekorea.us/2019/11/christine-ahn-pak-chol-and-the-united-front-department/

That said you can download their new report here: https://koreapeacenow.org/new-report-shows-how-a-peace-first-approach-can-resolve-the-security-crisis-on-the-korean-peninsula/

Unfortunately, they cannot answer the question of how an end of war declaration with secure and protect the 50 millions Korean living in the South because there is no mechanisms for reducing the existential threat posed by the 4th largest army in the world offensively postured to attack south Korea to achieve the Kim family regime's objective to dominate the Korean peninsula. The "peace first" approach sounds nice, but it does not take into account the true nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.  In addition, they fail to answer these two important questions:

1. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

2. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?

That said here is my counter to their views. I often begin lectures on Korea with these statements.

- I support peace on the Korean peninsula

- I support a diplomatic solution to the north Korean nuclear threat

- I support ROK engagement with the north

- I do not support a weakening of the ROK and ROK/US defensive capabilities

- I believe there cannot be success for US, ROK, and Japanese interests without strong ROK/US and Japan/US alliances

- Despite the above I think we have to accept that north Korea may have a continued hostile strategy and therefore while we prioritize diplomacy we have to remain prepared for the worst cases.  I hope I am wrong here and that Kim Jong-un will dismantle his nuclear weapons and seek peaceful co-existence. But I do not think that is likely so we need a superior political warfare and military strategy to achieve peace by settling the "Korea"question" once and for all.

- There are no ”experts” on north Korea – it is the most difficult intelligence target – the proverbial “hard target”

- At best we are students trying to understand the nature of the regime and the security problem on the Korean peninsula

- Anything I say can and should be challenged

- However, now that I am retired I am no longer constrained by doctrine, funding, or a chain of command so I can tell you how I really feel

 

10.  Seoul-Tokyo cooperation vital to regional peace: Pentagon

koreaherald.com · February 3, 2021

Yes it is.  But the new MND Defense White Paper is not helpful.

 

11. Seoul says it can't accept Japan's 'unjust complaint' over defense white paper

en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · February 3, 2021

The complaint is justified because the White Paper is politicized and puts historical animosity above national security and what should be a strong relationship between the ROK and Japan.  And despite the politicization (e.g, to include GSOMIA threats) military cooperation between the two remains positive.  In fact, if the politicians could be left out of it there would be very strong military- to military relations between the ROK and Japan.

 

12. What South Korea and China Do Together on North Korea Depends on Biden

The National Interest · by Jason Bartlett · February 2, 2021

But China will not solve ROK and US security issues for us.  We cannot expect them to solve or even sincerely assist in trying to solve the nuclear threat.

Conclusion: As multilateral support from sanction-violating nations granted North Korea its ability to indigenize its own nuclear weapons capabilities, the Biden administration must also take a multilateral approach towards engaging China and denuclearizing North Korea. Washington must first reestablish confidence in its alliances and strengthen the faltering ties between Seoul and Tokyo to ensure equal accountability and cohesion on China and North Korea. As Beijing will pounce on any signs of wavering U.S. leadership or support, it is imperative for the Biden administration to quickly resume its leadership role in Asia through multilateral engagement.  

Mathew Ha and I make this recommendation in our essay on Trump to Biden and recommendations for policy going forward:

Encourage Chinese and Russian support for denuclearization while holding them accountable for ongoing violations of UN sanctions they claim to support. The Biden administration should publicize this duplicity and blacklist entities identified as violating sanctions.

https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2021/01/14/north-korea/

 

13.  North Korea Mobilizes Citizens for Kim Jong Il Birth Celebration Amid Covid-19, Cold Temperatures

rfa.org

More suffering for the Korean people living in the north simply to glorify the Kim family regime.  "Resentful" is probably not a strong enough word to describe the people's feelings. 

 

14. 19 sailors held by Iran to be released, but captain still detained

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2021/02/03/national/diplomacy/Iran-Foreign-Ministry-seized-vessel/20210203123200596.html

 

15. Nampho Container Port Remains Active Despite Continued Border Closures

38north.org · by Martyn Williams · February 2, 2021

More graphics at the link: https://www.38north.org/2021/02/nampho-container-port-remains-active-despite-continued-border-closures/

 

16. North Korea creates new biotech information center in State Academy of Sciences

dailynk.com – by Jeong Tae Joo - February 3, 2021

Nothing good comes from party control.

Excerpts:

However, with the creation of the new center, scientists and researchers in the bioengineering field are vexed by the pressure of having to produce results.

“The party committee has been choosing the goals and research plans bioengineering scientists and researchers must achieve at every major industrial base in the people’s economy, allotting them by individual and research lab,” said the source. “Scientists and researchers preparing their own research fear that if they don’t prioritize national research tasks, they could get branded as counterrevolutionary elements.”

 

"When people reflect on what it takes to be mentally fit, the first idea that comes to mind is usually intelligence. The smarter you are, the more complex the problems you can solve - and the faster you can solve them. Intelligence is traditionally viewed as the ability to think and learn. Yet in a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

 

The curse of knowledge is that it closes your mind to what you don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill - and the wil - to open your mind. A hallmark of wisdom is knowing when it’s time to abandon some of the most cherished parts of your identity."

- Adam Grant in Think Again

News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.

 

1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused

2.  Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks

3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

4. How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget

5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence

7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain

8. Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement

9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?

10. 'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape

11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?

12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny

13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub

14. Global democracy has a very bad year

15. General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War

16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks

17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps

18. Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?

19. Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China

20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together

21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story

22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists

 

 

1. DepSecDef Will Run Most Missile Defense, Nuke Modernization; SecDef Recused

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

This is quite the praise for Dr. Hicks: "Gates introduced Hicks to the committee and praised her “deep knowledge” of the Pentagon’s “bureaucratic black arts.”

I wonder if there is a PhD program in the "bureaucratic black arts."  Or do you have to go to the ninja dojo to gain those skills along with knife fighting.

 

2. Pentagon Clears Out Advisory Boards to Oust Last-Minute Trump Picks

WSJ · by Nancy A. Youssef

Probably not unexpected.  But here is the memo the SECDEF signed. https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/DoDAdvisoryCommittees-Zero-Based-Review.pdf. It is useful in that it provides a comprehensive list of all the advisory boards.

 

3. This is why so few troops have gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

militarytimes.com · by Meghann Myers · February 2, 2021

Again, if the active duty military does not want the vaccine there are plenty of military retirees who would gladly take it.

 

4.  How Kathleen Hicks will approach nukes, shipbuilding and the budget

Defense News · by Aaron Mehta · February 2, 2021

Dr. Hicks will have a very complex and challenging portfolio.

 

5. What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman

From my FDD colleague, Brad Bowman.  I think he makes arguments that should resonate with Americans outside the beltway bubble and are hopefully discussed at coffee shops and other gathering places (after COVID is dealt with). This is an example of an OpEd I would like to see in local papers throughout the US.  Deterrence is one of the hardest concepts to argue for and prove.  And as a wise Command Sergeant Major often told me, the house that is not burning does not make the news.  Deterrence is the house that is not burning.

Excerpts:

The Guard's role last month in D.C. vividly demonstrates the potentially decisive deterrent value of American ground forces when properly equipped, trained, and positioned.

While there is certainly a difference between armed domestic violent extremists and nation-state adversaries abroad, Americans have seen the same deterrent benefits of forward-positioned forces abroad. In 1997, a high-ranking North Korean defector stated that U.S. military forces in South Korea were the only thing deterring North Korean aggression.

In Europe, Moscow has invaded non-NATO countries such as Ukraine and Georgia in recent years. But after more than seven decades, the Kremlin has never invaded a NATO member country. The presence of joint U.S. combat forces, including ground forces, in Europe, makes clear to Moscow that America and its NATO allies have the military capability to defend against an attack.

The events last month in D.C. demonstrate the National Guard's value and suggest decision makers should think twice before withdrawing U.S. ground forces abroad from key locations at the frontiers of freedom.

 

What the National Guard Deployment to D.C. Tells Us

realcleardefense.com · by Bradley Bowman

 

6. Forging 21st-Century Strategic Deterrence

usni.org - Admiral Charles A. Richard - February 1, 2021

Speaking of deterrence.

Excerpts:

While DoD’s focus has been on counterterrorism, Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have begun to aggressively challenge international norms and global peace using instruments of power and threats of force in ways not seen since the height of the Cold War—and in some cases, in ways not seen during the Cold War, such as cyberattacks and threats in space. Not surprisingly, they are even taking advantage of the global pandemic to advance their national agendas. These behaviors are destabilizing, and if left unchecked, increase the risk of great power crisis or conflict. We must actively compete to hold their aggression in check; ceding to their initiatives risks reinforcing their perceptions that the United States is unwilling or unable to respond, which could further embolden them. Additionally, our allies may interpret inaction as an unwillingness or inability to lead. Remaining passive may deny us opportunities to position in ways that underpin one of our greatest strengths: strategic power projection. The moment an adversary’s initiative becomes a fait accompli, the United States would be forced to decide whether to accept their “new normal,” employ military force to reestablish the status quo, or set our own “new normal.”

...

While this is a sobering picture, it is not intended to discourage; rather, it is meant to highlight reality and reinvigorate a conversation across the enterprise. Our challenges are not insurmountable. Time and again, DoD has demonstrated its willingness and ability to address changing environments. We must adapt to today’s strategic environment by understanding our opponents’ threats and their decision calculus. We must also accept the gauntlet of great power competition with our nuclear-capable peers. It is through a holistic risk assessment process that we can better align national resources and military readiness to ensure strategic security. In the end, it comes back to the threat. Until we come to a broad understanding of what the threat is and what to do about it, we risk suffering embarrassment—or perhaps worse—at the hands of our adversaries.

 

7. Academic jailed in Iran pulls off daring escape back to Britain

The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · February 3, 2021

Truth is stranger than fiction.  There is a movie in this. I am reminded of the late great Bull Simons getting Ross Perot's EDDS employees out of Iran during the embassy hostage crisis in 1979-1980.  And this academic sounds like the OSS adage, A PhD who can handle himself in a bar fight.

Excerpts:

He escaped carrying only his laptop and copies of the books and articles he had published, crossing the border through snow 1.5 metres deep and fog, evading Iranian border patrols. Border security has been heightened ever since the assassination of the Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in Tehran last year.

“I am Kurdish by ethnicity and I know some of the routes, but it was very dangerous. I had to try several times,” he said.

Ahmady followed the paths used by mountain porters evading US-imposed sanctions to carry alcohol, car parts, medicine, cigarettes and contraband from Iraq and Turkey. But the routes are hazardous: one smuggler carrying four tyres on his back was recently shot by border guards, while several others have frozen to death.

He said he feared if he had been caught he would have faced more years in jail, but he had to take the risk. “I smuggled myself out of Iran out of despair,” he said. “I felt I had no other choice or option to leave. I was banned from travelling. I had this bounty and this sentence.”

 

8.  Every Soldier a Drone Fighter: Plan Would Make Counter-UAS Training an Army Requirement

military.com · by Matthew Cox · February 2, 2021

The old SAFAD - small arms for air defense - modernized.

 

9. China’s Post-Pandemic Future: Wuhan Wobbly?

warontherocks.com · by Andrew Scobell · February 3, 2021

From one of our China experts.  I have often counted on Andrew's work on China and its relations with north Korea.

This excerpt reminds me of the question Dr. Jung Pak always asks about the Kim family regime: who does it fer most?  The answer for the regime and the CCP is the same.

Excerpts:

The greatest irony of the People’s Republic — as I have written elsewhere — is that what the ruling CCP fears most are the people of China. The CCP is fearful that the people power opposition movements which shook countries and toppled regimes around the world will inspire Chinese crowds to take to the streets. The CCP is preoccupied with a plethora of different groups — disgruntled workers, irate farmers, unhappy veterans, disaffected religious groups, and restive ethnic minorities — each of which has registered dissatisfaction through physical demonstrations and online activism in recent years.

...

The prospect of a wobbly China and disjointed military is not a recipe for reassurance in the United States. A weaker or more insecure Beijing will present different challenges to that of a stronger and overconfident Beijing. But these will not be any easier and they are likely to be far more complicated. A less potent China may be disposed to act more erratically, possess heightened sensitivity to perceived threats, and be more prone to overreact. While China may not turn out to be the unstoppable juggernaut it is often made out to be, a wobbly Beijing will present a different set of challenges.

The Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration should look past China’s stable present and heighten vigilance to detect harbingers of future upheaval. Priorities ought to include continuous efforts to engage with a wide array of elites. This increases the chances that Washington is attuned to emerging trends, alert to future shocks, and acquainted with China’s post-COVID-19 leadership. Another priority should be crafting a purposeful military-to-military relationship to enhance U.S. ability to monitor the progress of China’s defense transformation and engage with rising PLA leaders. The likely persistence of bumpy bilateral ties underscores the importance of maintaining open channels of communication between the two defense establishments.

 

10.  'Their goal is to destroy everyone': Uighur camp detainees allege systematic rape

BBC · by Matthew Hill, David Campanale, and Joel Gunter

A very graphic article that is not meant for all audiences.  I just cannot find any more words to describe the truly evil nature of the perpetrators and the Chinese Communist Party in this article.

There are images at the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55794071

 

11. Can the U.S. End Supply Chain Links to Forced Uighur Labor?

lawfareblog.com – by John Foote - February 2, 2021

Recommendations for revision to US law.

Conclusion:

Finally, and maybe most importantly, the statute should include a built-in incentive to keep legitimate trade flowing. Companies prepared to work with their supply chains on the leading edge of corporate social responsibility and sustainable sourcing should be able to preserve the ability to trade in responsibly sourced goods. Enshrining the ability to prove that a given channel of supply is free of forced labor—including with the use of technologically sophisticated tracing technologies, to achieve “green lane” access to uninterrupted importation—is a powerful incentive, not available under current law, that should be created.

In truth, a revised statute that accomplished even some of these goals would be a marked improvement on the status quo. Here’s hoping the 117th Congress and stakeholders across all constituencies are up for the challenge.

 

12. FDD | It's Time to Sanction Russia for Poisoning Alexei Navalny

fdd.org · by Matthew Zweig and Andrea Stricker · February 2, 2021

From my FDD colleagues.

Excerpts:

Already in 2018, Biden was suggesting that the United States target Russian money laundering and involvement in U.S. financial and real estate markets. The U.S. should freeze the foreign-held assets of Putin, other Kremlin officials, and rich oligarchs close to Putin, which would indicate to the Russian leader that America will shake the foundation of his rule by targeting his pocketbook and that of his wealthy supporters.

Navalny is in a precarious situation. By acting resolutely, Biden may shield him from additional harm.

Mere rhetoric on the part of the Biden administration will only delay a reckoning with Russia. On the other hand, targeting Putin where it hurts would send a strong signal to the Russian people—currently protesting en masse for change—that America is behind them.

 

13. FDD | Treasury Report Highlights Turkey as Islamic State’s Logistical Hub

fdd.org · by Aykan Erdemir · February 2, 2021

And from another of my FDD colleagues.

Conclusion: The Biden administration should urge Ankara to adopt a zero-tolerance policy toward terror finance and to end its permissive policies and lenient treatment of jihadist networks within Turkey. Treasury, meanwhile, should continue to issue sanctions against Turkey-based terror financiers.

 

14. Global democracy has a very bad year

The Economist – 2 Feb 2021

We should be troubled by this report.

 

15.  General James Mattis and the Changing Nature of War

thecipherbrief.com – Walter Pincus

Excerpt:

The entire 45-minute discussion is worth hearing as Mattis, encouraged by Vickers, provided a stimulating, tour d’horizon of national security issues facing us all, including both foreign and domestic terrorism.

The video can be viewed here :https://vimeo.com/507184513. It is actually 90 minutes with the traditional cocktail mixing and history and films about the Marines in the OSS and the National Museum of Intelligence and Special Operations.

As noted he covers a lot of ground to include discussions of SOF and the intelligence community.  It is definitely worth watching.

 

16. Alliances need to be viewed from strategic vantage, not just cost: Hicks

koreaherald.com · February 3, 2021

Excellent.  This is an argument we have to make to the American people who have only heard about the costs and the transactional basis of our alliances. We have to be able to describe the strategic value in meaningful terms to the American people.

We try to make the argument of their importance here but we have to get this message and others like to the American people:  Defending Forward Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/

 

17. The Erosion of America's Professional Officer Corps

The National Interest · by William S. Smith · February 2, 2021

For discussion among PME classes and through the military, active and retired. 

Excerpts:

There is something troubling about the current culture of America’s elite officer corps, not simply in their politicization but also in their now routine acceptance of a revolving door onto the boards of defense contractors, security companies, and others vying for government contracts. The healthy tradition of a separate and professional officer corps who would give their unvarnished and unbiased opinions to America’s civilian leaders is breaking down; many retired military leaders are now both partisan and display huge financial conflicts of interest.

No one wants to place a hard ban preventing retired military officers from becoming involved in politics; retired military officers do have First Amendment rights. However, the nation is clearly poorer without senior military officers of the caliber of George Marshall, who probably had strong political views but, for the sake of the country, he approached his First Amendment rights with restraint, discretion, and professionalism.

 

18.  Opinion | Why Are Republican Presidents So Bad for the Economy?

The New York Times · by David Leonhardt · February 2, 2021

Some fascinating data.  Charts are at the link: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/opinion/sunday/democrats-economy.html?

 

19.  Biden Stakes America’s Claim in the Pacific Against China

Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · February 2, 2021

 

20. America is bitterly divided. Here’s how our nation’s veterans can bring us together

taskandpurpose.com · by Nate Anderson and Joe Chenelly · February 2, 2021

Can we?

 

21. A Proud Boy Capitol Rioter’s Story

icsve.org · by Anne Speckhard · February 2, 2021

 

22. The Capitol Rioters Aren’t Like Other Extremists

defenseone.com · by Robert A. Pape and Keven Ruby – 2 February 2021

I think this is some very important analysis that needs further exploration.

Conclusion: What’s clear is that the Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics—not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority. Preventing further violence from this movement will require a deeper understanding of its activities and participants, and the two of us do not claim to know which political tactics might ultimately prove helpful. But Americans who believe in democratic norms should be wary of pat solutions. Some of the standard methods of countering violent extremism—such as promoting employment or waiting patiently for participants to mellow with age—probably won’t mollify middle-aged, middle-class insurrectionists. And simply targeting better-established far-right organizations will not prevent people like the Capitol rioters from trying to exercise power by force.

 

 

"When people reflect on what it takes to be mentally fit, the first idea that comes to mind is usually intelligence. The smarter you are, the more complex the problems you can solve - and the faster you can solve them. Intelligence is traditionally viewed as the ability to think and learn. Yet in a turbulent world, there’s another set of cognitive skills that might matter more: the ability to rethink and unlearn.

 

Mental horsepower doesn’t guarantee mental dexterity. No matter how much brainpower you have, if you lack the motivation to change your mind, you’ll miss many occasions to think again. Research reveals that the higher you score on an IQ test, the more likely you are to fall for ste­reotypes, because you’re faster at recognizing patterns. And recent experiments suggest that the smarter you are, the more you might struggle to update your beliefs.

 

The curse of knowledge is that it closes your mind to what you don’t know. Good judgment depends on having the skill - and the wil - to open your mind. A hallmark of wisdom is knowing when it’s time to abandon some of the most cherished parts of your identity."

- Adam Grant in Think Again

Full Report Available Here: http://www.understandingwar.org/report/russian-military%E2%80%99s-lessons-learned-syria

 

The Russian military identifies its deployment to Syria as the prototypical example of future war—an expeditionary deployment to support a coalition-based hybrid war. The Russian General Staff cites Syria as highlighting the need for Russia to develop a new military capability—deploying flexible expeditionary forces to carry out “limited actions” abroad. The Russian Armed Forces are applying lessons learned from their experience in Syria to shape their development into a flexible and effective expeditionary force.

 

The United States must avoid projecting its own modernization priorities—or those of other competitors such as China—onto Russia. The Russian military is making discrete choices to concentrate on certain learning opportunities from Syria while rejecting or deemphasizing others. These choices are optimized to support a Russian concept of operations that is distinct from both pre-Syria Russian modernization efforts and the United States’ own modernization efforts.

 

The Russian military is using lessons learned managing an ad hoc coalition and proxy forces in Syria to inform preparations to coordinate formal coalitions in future wars. The Kremlin seeks to set conditions to ensure its next “limited action” based on Syria, as described by Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov, can leverage non-Russian forces. The Kremlin’s preparations in this regard include practicing coalition operations in exercises and expanding Russia’s international military ties—magnifying the Kremlin’s power projection capabilities.  

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. To compete with China and Russia, the U.S. military must redefine ‘readiness’

2.  Why Operation Warp Speed worked

3. Great responsibility demands a great navy

4. Cyber espionage is not cyber attack

5. How to root out extremism in the U.S. military

6. The boogaloo bois have guns, criminal records and military training. Now they want to overthrow the government.

7. Why Gen. Mark Milley will probably keep his job as Joint Chiefs Chairman

8. House Democrat: screen troops’ social media for links to extremists

9. US State Secretary Blinken criticises Russia, weighs possible sanctions on North Korea

10. In China, how people are pushing back on surveillance state

11. Access denied? The future of U.S. basing in a contested world

12. Lawyers, guns, and Twitter: wargaming the role of law in war

13. The key foreign policy challenges facing President Biden

14.   ‘Imposing costs’ on Beijing for bad behavior

15. Antony Blinken endorses refugee status in US for Hong Kong dissidents

16. Intel agency worker pushed his own drone company, report details

17. One data scientist’s quest to quash misinformation

18. China is a rising digital superpower. Europe and the U.S. must catch up - together.

19. A vast web of vengeance

20. The Army can't officially say who is an 'Army Ranger'

 

1. To compete with China and Russia, the U.S. military must redefine ‘readiness’

Washington Post · Charles Q. Brown Jr. and David H. Berger · February 2, 2021

I make the following comment and recommendation based on what a fellow retired SF officer said to me recently about think tanks, monographs, op-eds in the major papers, etc. Americans across the country are not reading all the research and commentary that is being done and written inside the Beltway. While it is great that two generals are making their argument in public in the Washington Post, they (and other leaders in the national security community) should consider writing op-eds in local papers throughout the US,  writing specifically to the American people. They should add a paragraph or two on why their argument is important to regular Americans and put it in terms that have meaning to and resonate with them.

The bottom line is that national security practitioners need to start writing for the American people and not just for Congress, the White House, the Departments, the press, and each other.

They need to explain how national security affects the average citizen in ways that citizens can understand concretely. They make the argument as to why it is necessary to invest in national security. 

As another smart think tanker and friend said to me, this might even be a better way to influence Congress - if constituents talk to their representatives about the issues they will have to address them.  If issues are important to constituents, they have to be important to Congress (a little Sun Tzu and the indirect approach might be useful).

 

2. Why Operation Warp Speed worked

Wall Street Journal · Arthur Herman · February 1, 2021

Except that it proved easier to get the supplies produced by our great industrial base shipped to the European and Pacific theaters and employed against our adversaries than it has been to get the vaccinations distributed internally inside the US and to get the vaccines employed by John Q. Public to fight the enemy virus.

Yes, that is a snarky comment, but we need the American people to be as mobilized to fight the virus as we were to fight the Axis powers in WWII.

 

3. Great responsibility demands a great navy

US Naval Institute · James Holmes · February 2021

Yes, I am on a rant. Great argument here. What does it mean to the American citizen in Ohio, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Montana?  Can we put this in terms that will resonate with our fellow citizens? Yes, navies need advocates in high places, but they also need the support of the American people.

Now I do not mean to be flippant here, but Professor Holmes is on the right track with his Spiderman reference. This is a start. Use cultural references for good effect. I would argue that the advocates in high places he references, the Roosevelts and Reagan, had one key characteristic in common: they could effectively communicate with the American people.

 

4. Cyber espionage is not cyber attack

C4ISR Net · James Van de Velde · February 1, 2021

A powerful conclusion. I am sure his arguments will create some important debate.

 

5. How to Root Out Extremism in the U.S. Military

Defense One · Heather Williams · February 1, 2021

Very carefully and with a scalpel and not a chainsaw.  If we do this wrong, we might cause irreparable harm to military organizations.

But we have to be very careful about these recommendations. Some will play right into the extremist narrative.

And I would ask how this essay will play in Peoria? Does this make an argument that will resonate with the American people?

 

6. The boogaloo bois have guns, criminal records and military training. Now they want to overthrow the government.

ProPublica · A.C. Thompson, Lila Hassan, & Karim Hajj · February 1, 2021

This will stir things up on social media.

What I never see in these reports, or in the writings of the extremists, is their theory of victory and success. What do they mean by overthrow the government? What does that look like and how does it play out? I do not see any practical plan for armed insurrection other than fomenting chaos and unrest.  What does that achieve? I would like to read something from these leaders that explains how they expect to "win."

I frankly think that there is no real leadership of these organizations that can achieve victory. All these leaders can do is fire people up in very dangerous ways, but they give them no practical plan of action. The leaders are nothing more than "romantic revolutionaries," who really do not know what they are doing or are only doing this for personal power, reward, and probably to feed their narcissistic personalities.

I would offer this description of the leaders of these extremist organizations:

In our class on “Unconventional Warfare for Policy Makers and Strategists,” we were discussing leadership in underground resistance movements and insurgencies. In our reading from “Human Factors Considerations of Undergrounds in Insurgencies” was this passage on evaluating one type of leader found in underground resistance movements (i.e. narcissism).

P. 98-99  “… Egocentricity is a normal component in infantile development; however, as a child develops into adolescence, he or she is supposed to become less self-absorbed and more cognizant of others. Narcissism is a psychoanalytic theory that holds that primary narcissism (or self-love) in the form of grandiose self does not diminish as the individual develops and expands his or her social network. If this fails to occur, regardless of reason, the grandiose self-image can result in individuals who are sociopathic, arrogant, and devoid of compassion for others. Some leaders demonstrate a marked desire for admiration and attention, a hallmark of narcissism.  Their chosen methods of violence are often spectacular and attention grabbing, suggesting a more narcissistic clinical presentation.

There are also those who exhibit a narcissistic leadership style although they probably do not meet the clinical criteria for an Axis II disorder. In fact, this leadership style is heavily represented in the military, industry, and academia. Characteristics of the narcissistic leadership style include a vulnerability to biased information processing that results in an overestimation of their own strength and an underestimation of their adversary’s, a grandiose and self-serving disposition, a lack of tolerance for competition, difficulty relying on experts, and a desire for sycophantic subordinates. Often displaying superficial arrogance over profound personal insecurity, they actively seek admiration, are vulnerable to insults, slights, and attacks, and are prone to rage. Key observables that indicate this style are the leader’s sensitivity to criticism, surrounding themselves with sycophants, and overvaluation of his chances of success and an underestimation of the strength of an opponent.”

 

7. Why Gen. Mark Milley will probably keep his job as Joint Chiefs Chairman

Military.com · Oriana Pawlyk · February 1, 2021

 

8. House Democrat: screen troops’ social media for links to extremists

NBC News · Dan De Luce · February 1, 2021

This plays right into extremists’ hands. The Democrats need to be careful here or they will confirm the extremist narratives.

 

9. US State Secretary Blinken criticizes Russia, weighs possible sanctions on North Korea

Straits Times · February 1, 2021

SECSTATE has his hands full. He has literally had to hit the ground running.

 

10. In China, how people are pushing back on surveillance state

World Crunch · Frederic Schaeffer · February 1, 2021

Are there lessons to be learned?  Can they be assisted from the outside?  What is the resistance potential inside China due to the growing surveillance state?

 

11. Access denied? The future of U.S. basing in a contested world

War On the Rocks · Renanah M. Joyce & Brian Blankenship · February 1, 2021

Some thought-provoking ideas.

Although we did not describe the issue exactly this way, I think our recent monograph, Defending Forward: Securing America by Projecting Military Power Abroad, makes a similar argument.

 

12. Lawyers, guns, and Twitter: wargaming the role of law in war

War On the Rocks · Thomas J. Gordon IV et al. · February 2, 2021

 

13. The key foreign policy challenges facing President Biden

TIME · Ian Bremmer · January 30, 2021

 

14. ‘Imposing costs’ on Beijing for bad behavior

Asia Times · Grant Newsham · February 2, 2021

Make the leaders feel the pain. But is that easier said than done?

 

15. Antony Blinken endorses refugee status in US for Hong Kong dissidents

Washington Examiner · Joel Gehrke · February 1, 2021

 

16. Intel agency worker pushed his own drone company, report details

Defense One · Patrick Tucker · February 1, 2021

Oops.

 

17. One data scientist’s quest to quash misinformation

Wired · Sonner Kehrt · September 15, 2020

 

18. China is a rising digital superpower. Europe and the U.S. must catch up - together.

Washington Post · Carl Bildt · February 1, 2021

 

19. A vast web of vengeance

New York Times · Kashmir Hill · January 30, 2021

What a story. A cautionary tale, the dangers of the internet, and the power of someone online.

 

20. The Army can't officially say who is an 'Army Ranger'

Task & Purpose

This is getting entirely too much airtime (so I am guilty of contributing to it). I have always considered myself "Ranger qualified" and would not do otherwise out of respect for those Rangers who actually served in the Ranger Regiment. But that is inside Army baseball. This should not be a public controversy.  And many senior Rangers have recently answered on this subject so we should leave it to them. We are pole vaulting over molehills.

 

“Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves.”

- Carl Jung

“Read, read, read. Read everything -- trash, classics, good and bad, and see how they do it."

- William Faulkner

"... there’s an enormous difference between democracy promotion by coercive and non-coercive means. Voice of America broadcasts and the National Endowment for Democracy cross international borders in a very different manner than the 82nd Airborne Division does."

- Joseph Nye

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry

2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea

3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward

4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan

5. No country can survive alone

6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone

7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue

8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang bureau: report

9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects

10. South Korea "downgrades" Japan's status in defense white paper

11. North Korea's latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses

12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse

13. Moon's nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project

14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community

15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible

 

1. N. Korea beefs up missile units, special forces over past years: defense ministry

Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · February 2, 2021

We will be discussing the ROK Ministry of National Defense's white paper for the next few days.

Defintely some key – and controversial – points…

 

2. FM nominee Chung rejects allegations of push to help build nuke power plant in N. Korea

Yonhap News Agency · 송상호 · February 2, 2021

I wonder how much damage this controversy will cause and how long it will be in the news.

 

3. Blinken says U.S. looking for ways to move N. Korea denuclearization forward

Yonhap News Agency · 변덕근 · February 2, 2021

Both/and versus either/or. But the Biden administration isn’t going to simply embrace the Moon administration's vision for peace at any cost. 

 

4. Energy ministry unveils document to calm dispute over N. Korea reactor plan

Yonhap News Agency · 이민지 · February 1, 2021

Will this calm the controversy?

 

5. No country can survive alone

Dong-A Ilbo · February 2, 2021

An important historical analogy.  The ROK needs the alliance.

 

6. JCS chiefs of Korea, U.S. agree on OPCON goals over phone

Korea Joong Ang Daily · Sarah Kim · February 2, 2021

This will continue to be a source of friction. But if the Defense Ministry wants to make combined exercises negotiable with North Korea, there will be insufficient training of the theater HQ to meet the conditions for the OPCON transition process to progress.

 

7. US may take two-track approach to North Korea issue

Korea Times · Do Je-hae · February 2, 2021

But the policy review must be conducted and completed. There is impatience in South Korea for understanding the way ahead and some of the ROK actions are starting to put the Biden administration in a box (e.g., Minister Suh's comments about negotiations with the North over combined exercises as well as other ROKG engagement proposals). We do have a timing problem now. The Biden administration is just getting on its feet while the Moon administration is running out of time. We really only have about the next 6-7 months, because by the fall, the South will be decisively engaged with the presidential election process. The Biden administration will want to act with deliberate speed and take a long-term view while the Moon administration is ready to act with great haste.

 

8. KBS seeks to open Pyongyang Bureau: report

Korea Times · Park Ji-won · February 2, 2021

Well, this could be interesting (and potentially useful) but of course controversial. It would be useful if it is in support of a superior form of political warfare. But we should be under no illusion about the fantasy of this aim (while it is a nice overt, public objective, it is not based in reality).

 

9. Nuclear plant row may increase US concerns over inter-Korean projects

Korea Times · Kang Seung-woo · February 2, 2021

If the information was shared, it would reduce the friction. But the proposal illustrates the two different views the ROK and US hold about the nature of the Kim family regime and its objectives. This issue must be worked out soon and the alliance must go forward with sufficiently aligned strategic assumptions about the regime.

 

10. South Korea “downgrades” Japan’s status in defense white paper

Kyodo News · February 2, 2021

Again. The ROK should be better than this. MND has succumbed to political pressure from the Blue House. And, of course, North Korea is not an "enemy" again either.

 

11. North Korea’s latest show of strength is meant to hide its weaknesses

Business Insider · February 1, 2021

Yes, but. The Kim family regime has been "winning," or at least surviving, the poker game with a pair of 2s for years.

I agree that Kim is in a relatively weak position due to the strains of the triple whammy (sanctions, COVID response, and natural disasters) combined with his poor policy decisions and priorities.

But I also think his actions are not merely to cover weakness but to support his political warfare strategy. Despite his weakness, he continues to be on the offensive from a political warfare and blackmail diplomacy perspective. He is trying to shape the environment the conditions.

 

12. The fallacy of North Korean collapse

38 North · Sang Ki Kim & Eun-Ju Choi · February 1, 2021

Look, if North Korea collapses, it will be catastrophic. It will not be benign and the conditions that lead to regime collapse can also lead to the regime making the decision to execute its campaign plan to ensure survival. Too often analysts overlook this fact when they want to pooh-pooh collapse analysis.

Of course, there is no analysis of what may cause collapse, especially the governing effectiveness of the party and the regime or the coherence and support of the military. Instead, it rehashes the bankrupt ideas that people think the collapsed economy and horrendous humanitarian conditions will lead to  regime collapse.

 

13. Moon’s nuclear phaseout policy eroded by suspected reactor project

Straits Times · February 2, 2021

This is an example of the contradictions of many of the Moon administration policies. It wants to eliminate nuclear power in the South and with that will go the South's nuclear expertise. How will it be able to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea? 

 

14. DPRK: Pursue accountability for human rights violations, UN report urges international community

United Nations (OHCHR) · February 2, 2021

Yes. And it is time for the Biden administration to appoint a special envoy for human rights in North Korea.

Human rights is a national security issue in addition to a moral imperative.

The full 15-page report can be accessed here.

 

15. Denuclearization of North Korea is possible

38 North · Joseph R. DeTrani · February 1, 2021

I certainly hope Ambassador DeTrani is right. I say pursue denuclearization but have a plan B to deal with the worst cases. Give Kim every opportunity to denuclearize but not through concessions or appeasement (which will only embolden him).

Although I am sure it plays to Kim's vanity, I do not think he will ever be a Deng or Gorbachev.

 

“Everything that irritates us about others can lead us to an understanding of ourselves.”

- Carl Jung

“Read, read, read. Read everything -- trash, classics, good and bad, and see how they do it."

- William Faulkner

"... there’s an enormous difference between democracy promotion by coercive and non-coercive means. Voice of America broadcasts and the National Endowment for Democracy cross international borders in a very different manner than the 82nd Airborne Division does."

- Joseph Nye

From the OSS Society.

The 90 minute video can be access HERE.

Editor's note: I strongly recommend all professional military education organizations from the servicecademies/ROTC/OCS through Senior Service Colleges take the 90 minutes to watch and listen to this and discuss the insights, wisdom, and advice from General Mattis and Dr Vickers.

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.

1. Defending forward to confront China’s military aims

2. Facebook knew calls for violence plagued ‘groups,’ now plans overhaul

3. Sub-threshold maneuver and the flanking of U.S. national security

4. As Xi professes a commitment to ‘multilateralism,’ the U.S. counters with a dose of reality

5. Solorigate attack - the challenge to cyber deterrence

6. How we lose against China: social media and internal political extremes could undermine the United States

7. Russia protesters defy vast police operation as signs of Kremlin anxiety mount

8. Biden to 'build on' Trump's anti-China coalition

9. We need to inoculate military servicemembers against information threats: the case for digital literacy training

10. The CIA fine-tunes its hiring pitch to millennials and gen Z

11. The challenge of abstraction: assessing Cold War analogies to the present period

12. WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues

13. National Freedom Day: deepening our resolve to fight human trafficking

14. A super-max failure and the case for going irregular: recalibrating US policy toward Iran

15. Direct participation in hostilities in the age of cyber: exploring the fault lines

16. U.S. needs to deny, not dominate, China in the Indo-Pacific

 

1. Defending forward to confront China’s military aims

Real Clear Defense · Craig Singleton · January 30, 2021

From my FDD colleague, Craig Singleton.

 

2. Facebook new calls for violence plagued ‘groups,’ now plans overhaul

Wall Street Journal · Jeff Horwitz · January 31, 2021

How to balance free expression with safety and security?  While I do not want (excessive) government regulation, I certainly do not trust big tech (and the likes of Zuckerberg). This is a critical dilemma we have.

 

3. Sub-threshold maneuver and the flanking of U.S. national security

Mad Scientist Laboratory · Dr. Russell Glenn · February 1, 2021

From my friend and mentor, Dr. Russ Glenn. Russ was my SAMS seminar leader (Seminar 4 - The House of Pain) at Leavenworth more than two decades ago! My, how time flies. This essay reminds me of what every day was like in SAMS and why I always recommend SAMS to any officer who wants to think deeply about the profession of arms.

A lot of food for (deep) thought in this essay. The complete essay from which this is derived can be accessed here.

 

4. As Xi professes a commitment to ‘multilateralism,’ the U.S. counters with a dose of reality

Foundation for Defense of Democracies · Thomas Joscelyn · January 28, 2021

From another of my FDD colleagues, Thomas Joscelyn.

 

5. Solorigate attack – the challenge to cyber deterrence

C4ISR Net · Jan Kallberg · January 30, 2021

 

6. How we lose against China: social media and internal political extremes could undermine the United States

National Review · Robert D. Kaplan · January 21, 2021

 

7. Russia protesters defy vast police operation as signs of Kremlin anxiety mount

New York Times · Anton Troianovski et al. · January 31, 2021

 

8. Biden to 'build on' Trump's anti-China coalition

Chosun Ilbo · Kim Jin-myung & Lee Ha-won · February 1, 2021

Korea is going to have to step up and decide if it is going to be a great middle power or remain a shrimp among whales. I know all my professional friends (diplomats and military) from Korea know the right way ahead. The question is whether the politicians will take the right path.

 

9. We need to inoculate military servicemembers against information threats: the case for digital literacy training

War On the Rocks · Peter W. Singer & Eric B. Johnson · February 1, 2021

Digital natives, digital immigrants, and digital aliens. You would think our young military personnel would all be digital natives and have grown up with the proper concepts of cyber hygiene and cyber defense. But alas, I think we have a long way to go to inculcate a sense of cyber civil defense into our schools and among the population. Maybe if we get it right in the military it will serve as a positive example.

 

10. The CIA fine-tunes its hiring pitch to millennials and gen Z

Wall Street Journal · Krithika Varagur · January 31, 2021

The CIA is adapting.

 

11. The challenge of abstraction: assessing Cold War analogies to the present period

Divergent Options · Brandon Patterson · February 1, 2021

 

12. WHO teams visits Wuhan food market in search of virus clues

Washington Post · Emily Wang Fujiyama & Zen Soo · January 31, 2021

No easy answers.

 

13. National Freedom Day: deepening our resolve to fight human trafficking

US Department of State · Antony J. Blinken · February 1, 2021

A true scourge that must be stopped. This has to be among the very worst crimes against humanity.

 

14. A super-max failure and the case for going irregular: recalibrating US policy toward Iran

Modern War Institute · Alex Deep · January 29, 2021

But any irregular warfare approach must be nested in a political warfare approach at the national level.  Irregular warfare is one military contribution to political warfare.

 

15. Direct participation in hostilities in the age of cyber: exploring the fault lines

Harvard Law School National Security Journal · Brig. Gen. (ret.) David Wallace, Col. Shane Reeves, and Maj. Trent Powell · February 1, 2021

The full 34-page article can be downloaded here.

 

16. U.S. needs to deny, not dominate, China in the Indo-Pacific

Bloomberg · Hal Brands · January 31, 2021

An interesting critique from Hal Brands.

 

"A man is morally free when, in full possession of his living humanity, he judges the world, and judges other men, with uncompromising sincerity."

- George Santayana

“Take the civil service out of government and the country will collapse. Take politics out of government and the country will flourish.”

- Abhijit Naskar

“To change a political system, the majority of the thinking citizens must unite, speak with one voice, and stand firm like one leg.”

- Dr. Ahmed Padia Binkatabana