Small Wars Journal

02/04/2020 News & Commentary – National Security

Thu, 02/04/2021 - 10:35am

News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.

1. BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

2. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

3. Biden Freezes German Pullout Plans; 'Cradle to Grave' Review Underway

4. Defense secretary will order military-wide stand down to address extremism

5. China promotes education drive to make boys more 'manly'

6. No Substitute for Strategy: What's Wrong with "Defending Forward"

7. Analyze the failure of several special operations of the US military (google translation of a Chinese document)

8. China's politics as war by other means

9. 'Anonymous' author's paper on US' China strategy makes a buzz, has sharp message for India

10. Biden to visit State Dept. as US reengages with its allies

11. Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

12. Biden Commerce Pick Sees 'No Reason' to Lift Huawei Curbs

13. Biden's vow to champion global human rights tested by twin crises

14. US sends warship through Taiwan Strait for first time under Biden

15. Top Marine General: We Need to Get Comfortable with 'Throwaway' Equipment

16. The dangers of a Sino-American 'war' mentality

17. With Biden's 'full support,' the Space Force is officially here to stay

18. Exclusive: Suspected Chinese hackers used SolarWinds bug to spy on U.S. payroll agency - sources

19. S. Korea, Singapore ranked top for innovation worldwide

 

1. BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

news.cgtn.com

Admit nothing. Deny Everything. Make counter accusations. 

BBC acts as a propaganda weapon by spreading lies on Xinjiang

 

2. Afghanistan Study Group Final Report: A Pathway for Peace in Afghanistan

usip.org

The 88 page final report can be downloaded here

Summary conclusion: By focusing on the single objective of achieving an acceptable peace agreement that ends the conflict between the Taliban and the Afghan government, U.S. messaging, policies, and actions can finally be aligned. The purpose of the U.S. troop presence should also be clear: not to pursue an endless war but to support a peace process that will allow American troops to return home under conditions that guarantee our national interests.

 

3. Biden Freezes German Pullout Plans; 'Cradle to Grave' Review Underway

breakingdefense.com · by Paul McLeary

This excerpt illustrates why it is so hard to alter basing arrangements and agreements.  It is nice to try to think  about the optimal structures and basing locations and to say our basing structure around the world is an anachronism and a legacy of the Cold War (and WWII and the Korean War).  But I think in general we need to work with what we have, not give up the high ground (unless we can seize even higher ground) and while always seeking improvements protect the capabilities (and locations that we already have). 

Excerpts:

“Overall, the plan would bring roughly 6,400 service members home and reposition 5,600 elsewhere in Europe, including possibly moving troops to the Baltic nations and Poland. The move would leave 24,000 troops in Germany.

In order for that to happen, complex basing and legal issues would have to be resolved with the host nations, a process that could take months, if not years, given the scale of the changes proposed.

The plan included moving 2,000 troops from EUCOM headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany, to Mons, Belgium. Africa Command's headquarters, also in Germany, is also likely to move to Spain or Italy. Additionally, 4,500 members of the Second Cavalry Regiment in Germany will return to the US and begin rotations in the Black Sea region. Elsewhere, the 2,500 airmen scheduled to deploy to Germany from the U.K. would remain in the U.K., while an F-16 squadron would be sent to Italy.

Wolters today acknowledged that the process was complicated, and "there were so many pieces and parts to the plan we could probably sit here for weeks" talking about "the depth and how far along we were putting in all those cases; there were branches and sequels with multiple options. So I will just tell you that the new administration comfortably stated to us that we need to conduct a thorough review cradle to grave, in all areas."

 

4. Defense secretary will order military-wide stand down to address extremism

Stars and Stripes

We need to be careful to not play into the extremists' narratives.

Key point: "So, where is it? It's just not clear," Kirby said Wednesday. "I think with respect to those statistics - the secretary, too, is frustrated that this is an issue and that we don't have better visibility, a better understanding of it."

 

5. China promotes education drive to make boys more 'manly'

BBC  Kerry Allen· February 4, 2021

Translated, that probably means more misogynist. 

But in addition to the obvious memes that will result from this, there should be some useful themes and messages that can be developed.  Also this is a data point to assist in cultural understanding.

 

6. No Substitute for Strategy: What's Wrong with "Defending Forward"

The National Interest · by Gil Barndollar · February 3, 2021

This is quite a comprehensive (and brutal) critique of our work (though I am disappointed they did not criticize our Korea and Japan sections of our monograph).  Obviously I strongly disagree with this analysis and I stand by our work.

Their conclusion: "Strategy, grand or otherwise, is about choice. It is about setting priorities. President Biden has a golden opportunity to transform, not restore: to replace the blustering incompetence of the Trump years with a humbler, saner American foreign policy, one that rejects the hubris that helped put Trump in the White House. Defending Forward does promise a restoration of sorts: a restoration of the worst foreign policy ideas since the end of the Cold War. The president would do well to reject it-and its votaries."

Since none of their links seem to work here is the link to our Defending Forward monograph so you may judge for yourself:  https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2020/12/15/defending-forward/

 

7. Analyze the failure of several special operations of the US military (google translation of a Chinese document)

http://www.81.cn/jfjbmap/content/2021-02/04/content_282206.htm

This is from the PLA analyzing US special operations.  This is a google translation from the Chinese but it is sufficient to get the gist of the critique from the Chinese perspective.

It categorizes US "errors" into the following categories:

Wrong mentality:

Intelligence error:

Plan error:

Command error:

Equipment error:

It is also interesting to note which operations they have selected to provide evidence to support their critique.

 

8. China's politics as war by other means

asiatimes.com · by Francesco Sisci · February 4, 2021

I have been arguing this for years.  We should remember what Mao said: "Politics is war without bloodshed, while war is politics with bloodshed."

My graphic depiction based on the NSS and NDS.

 

9. 'Anonymous' author's paper on US' China strategy makes a buzz, has sharp message for India

theprint.in · February 4, 2021

So who is "Anonymous?"

An Indian perspective:

“For Delhi, the US strategy underlines the background against which our own strategic 'propositions' have to be weighed.

First, this decade will see a China that, through Xi Jinping and his coterie, sees itself as almost equal to the US. That's not the kind of power that will respect any boundaries, unresolved or otherwise. Nor is it likely to see India as a 'pole' in Asia. Second, that very rise presages certain conflicts. Whether that is good for India or not is a matter of pressing consideration. Third, this is as clear a statement as ever of the limits of US commitment to be a 'balancer' in this part of the world. This raises the question of some limited bandwagoning with China as it continues its onward march, now taking much of Europe along after a critical investment agreement.

For India, China still remains the 'largest source of critical items'. That could actually be the 'long view' if current border tensions were amicably dealt with first. The problem is that China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Zhao Lijian flatly refused to link the border issue with development of bilateral relations, a statement that falls neatly into Jaishankar's 'unacceptable' criteria, as it should. Alternative to bandwagoning, it may be time for India to deliver a light blow, leaving the actual punch to better-armed friends. That should be done in the full knowledge that there's no one behind you other than a very valiant Indian Army. But then we always knew that, any number of US strategies notwithstanding.

 

10. Biden to visit State Dept. as US reengages with its allies

AP · by Matthew Lee and Zeke Miller · February 4, 2021

We should all take a deep breath.  Everyone will be listening for the President to talk about each of our areas of focus and we will be miffed if he does not mention our specifically.  He cannot cover everything and the purpose of this visit (I think) is to focus on our great diplomats and civil servants who continue to do the work of unsung heroes.  I think  Ms. Psaki, the White House spokesperson, is correct to try to help us manage expectations. - I think the characterization in the first sentence is correct - he is sending a message to his messengers.

 

11. Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

The Washington Post· by Craig Timberg and Eva Dou · February 4, 2021

Yes we have provided myriad opportunities for China to exploit.  The January 6th insurrectionists were aiding and abetting China by their actions.

Excerpts:

“The videos compare the Capitol siege to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019, saying that outrage about the Jan. 6 attack showed an "American double standard" given that Hong Kong's protests were praised by some U.S. officials, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Hours before the Capitol riot, Hong Kong authorities arrested dozens of members of the political opposition, effectively neutralizing the city's democracy movement. The unprecedented move came as the United States was distracted by the Senate runoffs in Georgia and then the riot.

After the Capitol attack, China's propaganda apparatus quickly seized on the opportunity to point out that Hong Kong's legislature was also trashed by rioters and argue that China was only doing the same thing as the United States by restoring law and order.

The Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times tweeted, "@SpeakerPelosi once referred to the Hong Kong riots as 'a beautiful sight to behold' - it remains yet to be seen whether she will say the same about the recent developments in Capitol Hill."

Pro-China propaganda campaign exploits U.S. divisions in videos emphasizing Capitol attack

 

12. Biden Commerce Pick Sees 'No Reason' to Lift Huawei Curbs

Bloomberg · by Eric Martin · February 4, 2021

Some continuity.

 

13. Biden's vow to champion global human rights tested by twin crises

washingtontimes.com · by Guy Taylor

The international community did not get the memo on the first 100 day honeymoon for the new administration.

On a serious note these are critical human rights crises.  But I would be remiss in not mentioning one of the worst human rights problems (in addition to the Uighurs in China) is the suffering of the 25 millions Koreans living in the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

 

14. US sends warship through Taiwan Strait for first time under Biden

CNN · by CNN staff

 

15. Top Marine General: We Need to Get Comfortable with 'Throwaway' Equipment

military.com · by Gina Harkins · February 2, 2021

Everything classified as non-repairable class IX.  Joe (the young troop not POTUS) will love that.  No more change of command inventories if everything is "throwaway?"  (Note my sarcasm).

Class I - Rations - Subsistence (food and drinking water), gratuitous (free) health and comfort items.

Class II - Clothing And Equipment - individual equipment, tentage, some aerial delivery equipment, organizational tool sets and kits, hand tools, unclassified maps, administrative and housekeeping supplies and equipment.

Class III - POL - Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants (POL) (package and bulk): Petroleum, fuels, lubricants, hydraulic and insulating oils, preservatives, liquids and gases, bulk chemical products, coolants, deicer and antifreeze compounds, components, and additives of petroleum and chemical products, and coal.

Class IV - Construction materials, including installed equipment and all fortification and barrier materials.

Class V - Ammunition of all types, bombs, explosives, mines, fuses, detonators, pyrotechnics, missiles, rockets, propellants, and associated items.

Class VI - Personal demand items (such as health and hygiene products, soaps and toothpaste, writing material, snack food, beverages, cigarettes, batteries, alcohol, and cameras-nonmilitary sales items).

Class VII - Major end items such as launchers, tanks, mobile machine shops, some parachute systems and vehicles.

Class VIII - Medical material (equipment and consumables) including repair parts peculiar to medical equipment. (Class VIIIa - Medical consumable supplies not including blood & blood products; Class VIIIb - Blood & blood components (whole blood, platelets, plasma, packed red cells, etc.).

Class IX - Repair parts and components to include kits, assemblies, and subassemblies (repairable or non-repairable) required for maintenance support of all equipment.

Class X - Material to support nonmilitary programs such as agriculture and economic development (not included in Classes I through IX).

Miscellaneous - Water, salvage, and captured material.

 

16. The dangers of a Sino-American 'war' mentality

aspistrategist.org.au · by Simon Tay and Jessica Wau · February 4, 2021

A perspective from Singapore.

But  China already has a "war" mentality - politics is war by other means. It practices unrestricted warfare.  It uses the "three warfares" (psychological warfare, legal warfare, and media warfare) 

 

17. With Biden's 'full support,' the Space Force is officially here to stay

Defense News · by Valerie Insinna · February 3, 2021

The only thing harder than getting a new idea into the military mind is getting an old one out. The Space Force is already an "old" idea and it is not going away.

 

18. Exclusive: Suspected Chinese hackers used SolarWinds bug to spy on U.S. payroll agency - sources

Reuters · by Christopher Bing, Raphael Satter, Joesph Menn, and Jack Stubbs· February 4, 2021

Again, this should be no surprise.

 

19. S. Korea, Singapore ranked top for innovation worldwide

straitstimes.com · February 4, 2021

Note:  I do not see any authoritarian regimes in the top 11.  Buried lede: the US is number 11.

 

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He had asked his father to pray for him, "Not for my safe return, that wouldn't be fair. Just pray that I shall do my duty...never be a coward...and have the strength, courage and understanding of men. Just pray that I shall be adequate."

- Chaplain Clark Poling  (one of the Four Chaplains)

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution."

- John Adams, The Works Of John Adams, Second President Of The United States

 

"If you hide your ignorance, no one will hit you and you'll never learn."  

- Ray Bradbury
 

Categories: News