News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. N. Korean nuclear issue a top priority for Biden administration: State Dept.
2. Fewer S. Korea-U.S. combined drills staged in 2020 amid pandemic: data
3. N. Korea's trade with China down 80 pct last year amid global pandemic
4. N. Korea ranks lowest in world democracy index last year: poll
5. Kim Jong-un at Lunar New Year's concert
6. Defectors, separated families pray for North Korean reunions on Lunar New Year
7. New Life for the Third Network (north Korea)
8. Kim Jong Un orders officials to make COVID-19 policy 'top priority'
9. Biden’s NK human rights agenda could cause clash with Seoul
10. N.Korea sets 2021 program of 5-year economic plan
11. S. Korea to rein in intelligence service in bid for reconciliation
12. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Gold Mining After Three Die in Mine Collapse
13. Oldest Korean victim of Japan's wartime sexual slavery dies, reducing total surviving victims to 15
14. ‘My mother begged me not to go’: the Japanese women who married Koreans – and never saw their family again
15. Smile: A North Korean refugee's dream
1. N. Korean nuclear issue a top priority for Biden administration: State Dept.
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 13, 2021
For those who are impatient and think the apparent lack of action means it is a low priority. Give the administration a chance to do their review, coordinate with allies, and develop a new way ahead. My sense is I think they will try to provide nK the opportunity to negotiate and will be willing to engage at the working level but I am also pretty sure they will be unwilling to make premature concessions. They might lift sanctions but only in return for real substantive and verifiable action, and again there will be no premature lifting of sanctions. But it is also kind of temporarily moot because the regime may not be in a position to engage at all as it has to deal with the triple whammy of natural disasters, COVID, and sanctions. Paradoxically, lifting of sanctions will be the least beneficial action for north Korea because what is really hurting the people are the policy decisions by KJU to shut down the markets and cross border trade and all the draconian population and resources control measures the regime has implemented to exert maximum control over the population. Control over the population and internal stability may be the priority for the regime in the near term (but it is always a priority because the KJU fears teh Korean people even more than he fears the US).
I think we all expected a provocation as a gift to the new Biden administration. But what I am thinking is that because of KJU’s internal situation a provocation may not achieve the effects he desires. He might conduct a missile test as part of his normal blackmail diplomacy but that would mean pushing the US to negotiations and demanding sanctions relief in return for talks. That is the typical play in the playbook. But he cannot negotiate now. He certainly could not come to a summit and is not likely to allow working level negotiations. So conducting a provocation right now may not accomplish what he needs. I think when he has better control over the internal situation and is ready to negotiate we will see a return to blackmail diplomacy. I also think the presentation of new military capabilities in October and January may be his attempt at sending a "deterrence" message - e.g., "leave us alone for now." On the other hand he could decide to conduct a provocation at any time. This is the nature of the Korea problem. None of us can know for sure what KJU is thinking.
2. Fewer S. Korea-U.S. combined drills staged in 2020 amid pandemic: data
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · February 13, 2021
For all those who think we have stopped training in Korea. Yes, there has been a decline but there are also some important numbers.
Excerpts:
The two countries staged a total of 172 joint training sessions in South Korea last year, down from 191 in 2019.
By service branch, joint maneuvers between their armies tumbled to 29 times last year from 89 in 2019, and their marine corps' combined programs were carried out seven times in 2020, compared to 24 the previous year.
But their navies held 70 rounds of combined drills last year, up from 61 in 2019, and the figure for their air forces more than tripled from 17 to 66 over the year, according to the data.
3. N. Korea's trade with China down 80 pct last year amid global pandemic
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · February 12, 2021
Because KJU has made the deliberate policy decision to shut down trade in the name of COVID but with the intent to reduce market activity so the regime can impose greater control over the economy and the population.
4. N. Korea ranks lowest in world democracy index last year: poll
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · February 13, 2021
I know this is "dog bites man" news. The big news is it has only been at the bottom for 16 straight years. What was the rating more than 16 years ago? Was it actually better? Which country was worse than north Korea?
5. Kim Jong-un at Lunar New Year's concert
en.yna.co.kr · by 주경돈 · February 12, 2021
Recall the regime banned smoking. Of course, that does not apply to KJU (note him smoking in the photo).
6. Defectors, separated families pray for North Korean reunions on Lunar New Year
upi.com – by Thomas Maresca
Every holiday is painful for escapees and separated families.
7. New Life for the Third Network (north Korea)
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · February 11, 2021
The third network. Think about that. Every household wired to receive propaganda.
Excerpts:
But recent escapees have said the system has fallen into disrepair. In many cases the signal is weak and difficult to listen to, if audible at all, they say.
Revitalization work will fall to the Ministry of Posts and Telecommunications, which manages the network. On January 30, state television showed ministry workers dutifully studying the account of Kim’s speech in the newspaper and pledging to follow through on his wishes.
How they plan to do this wasn’t explained. Electricity is still a scarce commodity, but the video footage of new houses indicates the third network is still a basic part of North Korean life.
8. Kim Jong Un orders officials to make COVID-19 policy 'top priority'
upi.com – by Elizabeth Shim
This action has two purposes and could have one major catastrophic effect. Obviously, preventing COVID 19 is a logical and top priority. At the same time, it provides the excuse to implement great population and resources control measures to exert great control over the people. But Kim's policies are making conditions potentially worse than during the Arduous march of the great famine of 1994-1996. We need to be observant for the indications and warnings that may point toward internal instability which could be. catastrophic for the regime.
9. Biden’s NK human rights agenda could cause clash with Seoul
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · February 10, 2021
This stems from the insufficient aligned strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. Since the Moon administration assumes the regime seeks peace and reconciliation, the Moon administration follows the conventional wisdom that it should avoid focus on human rights in order to engender positive responses to its initiatives from KJU. Yes there will be a clash over the views on how to address the crimes against humanity and human rights abuses perpetrated by KJU. But that will be fundamental because of our insufficiently aligned strategic assumptions.
10. N.Korea sets 2021 program of 5-year economic plan
By objective analysis, have any 5 year plans implemented by communist/socialist countries ever been successful?
11. S. Korea to rein in intelligence service in bid for reconciliation
asahi.com – by Yoshihio Makino – 12 February, 2021
Interesting historical analysis of the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) from Japan. Interestingly, my colleague Mathew Ha and I had a conversation with this author this week as he is writing a piece on the Biden administration north Korea policy and the impact of the north Korean problem on Japan.
12. North Korea Cracks Down on Illegal Gold Mining After Three Die in Mine Collapse
Note the subtitle. It says it all.
13. Oldest Korean victim of Japan's wartime sexual slavery dies, reducing total surviving victims to 15
The Korea Times · February 13, 2021
We should think about this poor woman and those who suffered like her.
14. ‘My mother begged me not to go’: the Japanese women who married Koreans – and never saw their family again
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · February 13, 2021
Another tragic story of north Korean human rights abuses.
Excerpt:
Two of the five surviving women correspond with their Japanese families by letter; phone calls are an expensive luxury in North Korea, and email access is a privilege enjoyed only by the political elite in Pyongyang. The others, including Minakawa, have lost touch with their siblings. While Hayashi’s attempts to talk to the women’s relatives in Japan were politely refused, she hopes her portraits will cast light on a neglected chapter in Japanese history. “These women have been forgotten in Japan, partly because of international political tensions,” she says. “Unless their personal histories are documented now, their experiences will die with them.”
Now 77, Minakawa forms a mental picture of the country she left as a young woman whenever she looks out her window, over the ocean from her home in Wonsan. “I want to go to Japan one last time, if possible,” she says. “Every May, when the acacia flowers are in full bloom, I open the window and their fragrance wafts into my room. Every time that happens, I think of home.”
15. Smile: A North Korean refugee's dream
The Korea Times · February 13, 2021
It is hard for us to understand the challenges that escapees have in integrating into the South.
Excerpts:
Recently my life mentor at FSI gave me a challenge ― he arranged for me to make phone calls to some of the organization's supporters. He made the supporters promise 1) to only use English with me 2) to make it a professional call, not chatting, as part of my training 3) to try to teach me at least one thing about English before we ended the call.
I struggled so much talking in English with two Americans and one lady from France. When I finished, my life mentor was in a meeting, so I wrote him a message: "WOW! I did it!" I am sure I made so many mistakes, but the supporters were so patient. I have more confidence that I can do it next time and that I can continue to learn. The important thing I am learning is to try, even if I am not sure, and to learn from the experiences.
I didn't go to school in North Korea, every day was a struggle for survival and to eat. Now in South Korea, I am not struggling for basic survival, but it has felt difficult at times.
I now feel that I have people around me who are with me so I can enjoy a good life here. The world now seems so beautiful to me, one day I hope I can show a big smile without anyone calling me a vampire.
"The United States has a strategy based on arithmetic. They question the computers, add and subtract, extract square roots, and then go into action. But arithmetical strategy doesn't work here. If it did, they would already have exterminated us with their airplanes."
- Gen Vo Nguyen Giap
"In order to win victory we must try our best to seal the eyes and the ears of the enemy, making him blind and deaf, and to create confusion in the minds of the enemy commanders, driving them insane."
- Mao Tse-Tung, On The Protracted War (1938)
"What a society gets in its armed forces is exactly what it asks for, no more and no less. What it asks for tends to be a reflection of what it is. When a country looks at its fighting forces it is looking at a mirror: if the mirror is a true one the face that it sees will be its own."
- General Sir John Hackett, The Profession of Arms