| Small Wars Journal

It is only natural for the casual observer of global politics and the expert alike to draw historical analogies in order to better grasp current events—a cognitive shortcut to simplify an exceedingly complex reality. As such, it should come as no surprise that many pundits have already equated recent political turmoil in the Arab world with the 1989 revolutions in Eastern and Central Europe that ultimately led to the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc and the collapse of the Soviet empire. The similarities, after all, are there: the rapid spread of mass protests from country to country, the hope for democratic reform, and the uncertainty concerning the future. While these recent events are likely to shape the course of regional politics in the Middle East and North Africa for years to come, the impact on global politics—that is, the overall balance of power that defines international relations—will almost certainly pale in comparison to the 1989 revolutions that heralded the Soviet Union's demise.

There is little question that the fall of the Soviet Union was the most significant political event of the second half of the twentieth century. After American foreign policymakers spent the better part of the Cold War concerned about a domino effect that would trigger the spread of global communism, it was ironically a "reverse" domino effect that led to its downfall. The triumph of Solidarity in Poland, the overthrow of Hungary's communist regime, and the fall of the Berlin Wall set off a chain reaction that not only transformed the Eastern Bloc and hastened the fall of the Soviet Union, but also laid the groundwork for the most significant shift in the global balance of power since World War II.

Why are shifts in the global distribution of power so significant? The Soviet Union's downfall not only transformed regional politics, but also marked a transition from the bipolar balance of power that had defined international politics since the end of World War II to a unipolar system dominated by the United States. Such changes in the system-level structure of global politics are quite rare historically. Prior instances include the decline of the British Empire in the nineteenth century, the emergence of the United States as a global power at the turn of the twentieth century, and the commencement of the Cold War following World War II. In each case, these power transitions completely changed the face of international relations. New players entered the game, old alliances were supplanted, new threats emerged on the horizon—a confluence of trends that required global powers to reformulate their foreign policy priorities and strategies on virtually every level.

Do the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt represent a potential global "sea change" of a magnitude comparable to the 1989 revolutions that ushered in the collapse of Soviet communism? In terms of domestic politics, it is clearly a radical departure for a region historically characterized by various flavors of authoritarian rule. Moreover, the United States will almost certainly face the challenge of rethinking key components of its foreign policy strategy vis-í -vis Israel and the Middle East for the first time in decades in order to account for a post-Mubarak Egypt.

Taking a step back, however, the current unrest in the region—even as it spreads to Yemen, Jordan, and possibly beyond—will not fundamentally transform the global balance of power. No empire will fall as a result of the ongoing turmoil. No new superpower will emerge. Regardless of the outcome of Egypt's uprising, the international system will remain (at least for the time being) defined by a single superpower alongside a handful of competing great powers. Far more likely to profoundly shift the global balance of power and, in turn, reshape the ebb and flow of international politics in the years ahead are Russia's steady resurgence and the growing role of emerging powers like China, India, and Brazil.

Make no mistake—the events transpiring in the Middle East and North Africa have the potential to change millions of lives in the region, hopefully for the better. That being said, revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt, and perhaps elsewhere are unlikely to redefine global politics on a scale remotely similar to the downfall of communism in Eastern and Central Europe. Therefore, despite certain superficial similarities, I contend that 2011 is not 1989 all over again.

Jason J. Morrissette is an Assistant Professor of Political Science and Director of International Affairs at Marshall University in Huntington, West Virginia. He specializes in international relations, post-Soviet politics, and environmental conflict. His most recent publication, "Rationality and Risk-Taking in Russia's First Chechen War," appeared in the European Political Science Review (July 2010).

Defining War

Defining War by Jeffrey Hasler, Special Warfare. BLUF:

"Regular review and restatement of approved definitions and their descriptions are necessary as sources of doctrine (e.g., policy, concepts, lessons learned, training, military education, operations planning and strategy) naturally evolve and doctrine is routinely updated. However, further complicating the goal of establishing and reinforcing up-to-date, authoritative and clearly articulated doctrine are other, currently influential, nondoctrinal terms. Incorrect usage of doctrinal terms sows confusion and hinders mission accomplishment; incorrect usage of unapproved terms does so exponentially."

Defining War, Special Warfare.

Talking to General Petraeus

In an exclusive interview with NATO TV, ISAF Commander General David Petraeus says he expects violence to increase again this year as he continues his counterinsurgency campaign across Afghanistan but he is seeing signs of discord appear within the Taliban.

10 February SWJ Roundup

Egypt

Spreading Unrest Raises Pressure on Mubarak - Washington Post

Suleiman Says Government Will Not Tolerate Prolonged Cairo Protests - VOA

Opposition: Mubarak Must Act Now or Risk 'Complete Chaos' - Washington Post

Obama's Advisors Split on When, How Mubarak Should Go - Los Angeles Times

Egypt Foreign Minister Criticises U.S. Calls for Change - BBC News

Lawmakers Criticize Obama's Response to Egypt Crisis - Washington Times

Long-standing Emergency Law Becomes Lightning Rod - Washington Post

Labor Actions in Egypt Boost Protests - New York Times

Egyptian Police Clash With Protesters in South - Voice of America

State-run Media Shifting From Pro-Mubarak Coverage - Washington Post

Wired and Shrewd, Young Egyptians Guide Revolt - New York Times

Egypt And the Muslim Brotherhood: An Israeli Perspective - VOA

What the Muslim Brothers Want - New York Times opinion

The Brotherhood's Agenda - Washington Post opinion

Israel's Big Fear - Washington Post opinion

Obama and Egypt's Future - New York Times opinion

In Egypt, a CIA Catch-22 - Washington Post opinion

Middle East

NATO Offers Israel, Palestinians Peacekeeping Troops - Washington Post

Syria Restores Access to Facebook and YouTube - New York Times

Afghanistan

ICOS: U.S. Troop Cut Could Set Back Afghan Gains - Reuters

NATO Commander Expects More Taliban Attacks in Spring - Voice of America

NATO, Afghans Seek to Pre-empt Spring Offensive - Associated Press

Afghan Rights Groups Shift Focus to Taliban - New York Times

Forces Kill, Detain Insurgents in Afghanistan - AFPS

U.S. Says Customs Officer Killed in Afghanistan - Associated Press

Trainers Aim to Increase Women's Role in Afghan Society - AFPS

Pakistan

Pakistan May Be Building 4th Plutonium Reactor - Washington Post

Dozens Killed in Pakistan Base Attack - New York Times

'Schoolboy Bomber' Kills 20 in Pakistan - BBC News

Teen Suicide Bomber Strikes Pakistan Army Facility, Kills 20 - Reuters

U.S., Pakistani Officials at Odds in Fatal Shooting - Washington Post

Pakistan TV Dramatizes Fight Against Terrorism - Washington Post

Pakistan's PM Reorganizes Cabinet - Voice of America

Pakistan Cabinet Resigns in Cost Cutting - Washington Post

Iraq

Fatal Bombs in Iraq Seemed Aimed at Militia - New York Times

Bombs Kill 7 in Ethnically Tense Iraqi City - Associated Press

Rumsfeld's Flight of Fancy on Iraq - Washington Post

Iran

Chief Prosecutor Criticizes Planned Rally Backing Revolts - New York Times

Tehran Vows to Crush Rally Supporting Tunis, Cairo - Washington Times

U.S. Department of Defense

Mullen: 'Hard' Budget Times Ahead for Military - The Hill

Pentagon Will Back Defense Mergers Outside Top 5 Companies - Bloomberg

Chairman: Military Must Plan for Future Transition - AFPS

DOD Must Train for 'Degraded' Environments, Official Says - AFPS

Socom Commander Outlines People, Mission, Equipment - AFPS

Army Looking for Weapon to Replace M4 - Stars and Stripes

Lawmakers: "Do Not Cut Military Morale Funding - McClatchy Newspapers

24th MEU CO Relieved of Command - Jacksonville Daily News

United States

Terrorist Threat Most 'Heightened State' Since 9/11 - Washington Post

Napolitano: Terror Threat May Be Highest Since 9/11 - CNN News

Lawmakers Hear of Threat by Domestic Terrorists - New York Times

North Carolina Man Admits to Aiding a Jihadist Plot - New York Times

State Department Launches Arabic Twitter Feed - Washington Post

The Patriot Act's Clock is Ticking - Washington Post editorial

Africa

Somali Piracy 'Threatens Global Oil Supplies' - BBC News

Official Is Killed In Southern Sudan - New York Times

ECOWAS: S. Africa Undermining Ivory Coast Mediation - Voice of America

Nigeria Nasarawa Clashes After President Jonathan Visit - BBC News

Charles Taylor Boycotts Trial for Second Day - Voice of America

Americas

Mexican Drug Cartels Draws Guatemalan Army to Jungles - Washington Post

Drug War Spreads to Mexico's Second City, Guadalajara - Reuters

Colombia's FARC Rebels Free Hostage - Los Angeles Times

Asia Pacific

North Korea Reacts Angrily to Breakdown of Talks - New York Times

N. Korea Refusing More Military Talks with S. Korea - Associated Press

Russia's Medvedev Speaks Tough on Disputed Islands - Associated Press

Thailand, Cambodia Step Up Diplomatic Efforts - Voice of America

Taiwan General Charged in Spy Case - New York Times

Europe

Ukraine Intensifies Pressure on the Opposition - New York Times

Italy: Prosecutors Seek Immediate Trial for Berlusconi - New York Times

Germany: Merkel Breaks Off Talks With Opposition - New York Times

Discovery of Kurdish Mass Graves Leads Turkey to Face Past - VOA

Terrorism Meets Xenophobia in Russia - Los Angeles Times opinion

South Asia

India and Pakistan to Resume Formal Peace Talks - Reuters

Read more about 10 February SWJ Roundup

Winter AUSA Conference Bloggers Roundtable

The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) will be holding their ILW Winter Symposium and Exposition 23-25 February in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. For those bloggers who cannot attend the conference, a roundtable has been arranged as a call in question and answer session with Lieutenant General Michael Vane, Director, Army Capabilities Integration Center (ARCIC), on Thursday, 24 February, from 0900 to 0945 (ET).

LTG Vane will discuss making small units decisive and connecting Soldiers to digital applications. The roundtable will take place in room 216 (TRADOC Meeting Room) and the dial in number is 757-788-6799.

Read more about Winter AUSA Conference Bloggers Roundtable

Is COIN Dead?

Mark Safranski, aka Zenpundit, asks "is counterinsurgency dead?".

"By that, I mean contemporary, mid-2000's "pop-centric" COIN theory as expressed in FM 3-24 - is it de facto dead as USG policy or is COIN theory formally evolved to officially embrace strong elements of CT, targeted assassinations, FID, "open-source counterinsurgency" and even bare-knuckled conventional warfare tactics?"

What say you?

Mexico Angry at U.S. Official's 'Insurgency' Remark

The Associated Press, via The Houston Chronicle, reports that Mexico is angry at a U.S. official's 'insurgency' remark. It seems Mexico's Interior Department took great exception to U.S. Undersecretary of the Army Joseph Westphal's comment "as all of you know, there is a form of insurgency in Mexico with the drug cartels that's right on our border" on Monday at the Hinckley Institute of Politics. Westphal has since retracted his categorization of Mexico's drug-related violence saying he "mistakenly characterized the challenge posed by drug cartels to Mexico as "a form of insurgency."" Mark Krikorian of National Review Online's The Corner says "the number-two civilian official in the Army committed a Kinsleyan gaffe Monday by telling the truth."

What say you?

Admiral Mullen tries again to prepare for the future

Yesterday, Joint Chiefs Chairman Admiral Michael Mullen released a new version of the National Military Strategy. The 21-page document attempts to describe "the ways and means by which our military will advance our enduring national interests." Like its cousins, the 2010 National Security Strategy and the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, the National Military Strategy assembles a long list of aspirations and describes in the most general terms some approaches for achieving those aspirations. As with the other two documents, the National Military Strategy avoids difficult discussions about priorities, constraints, resource limits, trade-offs, or consequences. Readers of the document, whether they be allies or adversaries, are likely to be hard-pressed to discern what about America's military strategy is actually changing as result of this document and the preparation that went into it.

The headline of Thom Shanker's piece on the new strategy read, "Joint Chiefs Chairman Says Military Must Focus Beyond Iraq and Afghanistan." This may be true; the new strategy declares that, "The Nation's strategic priorities and interests will increasingly emanate from the Asia-Pacific region." Perhaps this means that Mullen believes that now is the time for the U.S. military to prepare for the future beyond Iraq and Afghanistan.

In a letter to all hands he put out on October 1, 2007 -- his first day as Joint Chiefs Chairman -- Mullen made the same declaration, on that occasion even more explicitly:

I intend to properly balance global strategic risk. We must stay mindful of our many global security commitments and of the core warfighting capabilities, resources, and partnerships required to conduct operations across the full spectrum of peace and conflict. The demands of current operations, however great, should not dominate our training exercises, education curricula, and readiness programs.

The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan will one day end. We must be ready for who and what comes after.

Mullen must receive a mixed score on achieving these goals he set out for himself at the beginning of his term. The U.S. campaign in Iraq is winding down. But the campaign in Afghanistan accelerated sharply during Mullen's tenure. According to Bob Woodward's Obama's Wars, Mullen strongly defended every reinforcement request for Afghanistan - U.S. troop levels more than tripled there during his time as Chairman. And one must question whether "[t]he demands of current operations, however great, should not dominate our training exercises, education curricula, and readiness programs" has been achieved.

Mullen's advocacy for the larger ground campaign in Afghanistan committed the Pentagon to hundreds of billions of additional expenditures for that effort, a sum that very roughly approximates the funding shortfall over the next decade in shipbuilding, airpower, space, and command and control modernization. Naturally the debate will go on as to whether Mullen's advocacy for the larger war in Afghanistan was the best way "to properly balance global strategic risk."

If the new National Military Strategy is Mullen's attempt to chart a course past Iraq and Afghanistan, we can see that he tried to do the same thing over three years ago. It will now seem to require a much bigger turn of the wheel to get on that course.

Subscribe to

Search