by Tristan Abbey

Cross-Posted with permission from Bellum: a project of The Stanford Review.

The collapse of the Tunisian and Egyptian regimes has left many observers wondering which domino is the next to fall. Whether the revolution itself should have been foreseen is a matter for extended analysis, but one thing should have been clear long ago: Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak would not outlive the 2010s.

I mean that literally. Ben Ali was born in 1936 and Mubarak in 1928. By 2020, they would have been 84 and 92 years old, respectively. Even Leonid Brezhnev didn't make it to 76. Fidel Castro, who is two years older than Mubarak, caved in to biological demands and handed the presidency over to his younger brother three years ago. Egypt and Tunisia should have been on the watch list for geriatric reasons alone.

But no matter: we can make a new list starting today. Muammar al-Qaddafi turns 69 this year and has held the office of Brotherly Leader and Guide of the Revolution in Libya for over four decades. Robert Mugabe was born in 1924 and has ruled Zimbabwe as president since 1987, before Barack Obama entered Harvard Law. Ayatollah Khamenei was born in 1939 during the reign of Reza Shah, whose reign predates that of his more famous son.

Other presidents-for-life nearing their expiration date include Abdelaziz Bouteflika (b. 1937), president of Algeria since 1999 ; Teodoro Obiang Nguema (b. 1942), president of Equatorial Guinea since 1979; José Eduardo dos Santos (b. 1942), president of Angola since 1979; Raul Castro (b. 1931), president of Cuba since 2008; Islam Karimov (b. 1938), president of Uzbekistan since 1990; and Nursultan Nazarbayev (b. 1940), president of Kazakhstan since 1990. Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, who has already promised to step down this year, and Omar al-Bashir of Sudan are no spring chickens either.

"Pale death, impartial, he walks his round," the ancient Roman poet Horace reminds us; "he knocks at cottage-gate and palace-portal." This isn't a prediction that all these leaders will die of natural causes in the coming decade. Coups, assassinations, far-sighted abdication, revolution, and even democratic transition may also come into play. It is a forecast that, all things being equal, most, if not all, will grow too old to rule by 2020 and many will, indeed, pass from the scene entirely.

Historically, we have undervalued the role of pure biological factors in regime stability. Only after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 did we come to know that the Shah suffered from lymphoma. (He died in 1980.) Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, a strongman the US backed until 1986, succumbed to a variety of medical conditions just three years after his flight from Manila.

The lesson is that the US foreign and defense policy communities need to prepare for instability in countries with aging rulers. Those listed above will almost certainly experience a great deal of turbulence in the coming decade. A bread riot that gets out of hand, a faulty airplane engine, or any number of other things may intervene to bring about the demise of those regimes sooner, but that their demise will come this decade should not be a surprise.

In the end, "pale death" comes for us all, and strongmen are not immune.

Tristan Abbey graduated from Stanford, where he studied history and international relations.

HEADQUARTERS UNITED STATES CENTRAL COMMAND

7115 South Boundary Boulevard

MacDill AFB, Fla. 33621-5101

Phone: (813) 827-5894; Fax: (813) 827-2211

Feb. 22, 2011

Release Number: 022211-1

U.S. Forces Respond to Gunfire Aboard the S/V Quest

TAMPA, Fla. (Feb. 22, 2011) -- Tampa, FL - At approximately 1 a.m. EST today, while negotiations were ongoing to secure the release of four American hostages, U.S. forces responded to gunfire aboard the pirated vessel (S/V) Quest. As they responded to the gunfire, reaching and boarding the Quest, the forces discovered all four hostages had been shot by their captors. Despite immediate steps to provide life-saving care, all four hostages ultimately died of their wounds.

"We express our deepest condolences for the innocent lives callously lost aboard the Quest," said Gen James N. Mattis, U.S. Central Command Commander.

During the boarding of the Quest, the reaction force was engaged by pirates on board the vessel. Two pirates died during the confrontation and 13 were captured and detained along with two pirates already in US Forces custody. The US Forces also found the remains of two other pirates already dead aboard the Quest. In total, it is believed 19 pirates were involved in the hijacking of the S/V Quest.

US Forces have been closely monitoring the S/V Quest for approximately 3 days, once it became known to be pirated. Four U.S. Navy warships comprised the response force dedicated to recovering the S/V Quest: the aircraft carrier USS Enterprise (CVN 65), the guided-missile cruiser USS Leyte Gulf (CG 55), the guided-missile destroyers USS Sterett (DDG 104) and USS Bulkeley (DDG 84). The ships are deployed to the region to conduct maritime security operations and to provide support to operations Enduring Freedom and New Dawn.

Questions can be addressed to U.S. Central Command at 813-827-5895.

Warplanes and Troops Besiege Protesters in Libyan Capital - New York Times

Libyan Regime Launches Brutal Crackdown - Washington Post

Gadhafi Battles to Hang On - Wall Street Journal

Kadafi's Last Refuge, Fear, is Collapsing - Los Angeles Times

Gadhafi Losing Grip on Libya - Washington Times

Gadhafi's Hold on Libya Weakens in Protest Wave - Associated Press

Libya Protests: Tripoli Hit by Renewed Clashes - BBC News

Helicopters Reportedly Fire on Protesters in Libya - Washington Post

Libyan Military Widely Regarded as Murderous Thugs - Globe and Mail

World Leaders Slam Libyan Violence - Voice of America

E.U. Denounces Libya Violence; Prepares to Evacuate Nationals - VOA

U.N. Diplomats Break With Qaddafi - New York Times

U.S.: Little Leverage to Restrain Libyan Government - Washington Post

Britain, Italy Condemned for Libya Ties - Los Angeles Times

Officers Call on Libya Army to Remove Gaddafi - Reuters

Key Libyan Diplomats Disown Gadhafi's Regime - Associated Press

Libyan U.N. Mission Urges Gaddafi's Downfall - Reuters

Oil Companies Plan Evacuations From Libya - New York Times

Oil Prices Surge on Fear of Libyan Unrest - Washington Times

Five Killed in Morocco Unrest - Voice of America

Morocco Protests: Five Burned Bodies Found - BBC News

Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Faces Prospect of Democracy - Washington Post

Egyptians to Rally Again - Washington Times

Egypt's Leaders Take Steps Toward Change - New York Times

Egypt Seeks to Seize Mubarak's Assets Abroad - Washington Post

Egypt Requests Freeze on Hosni Mubarak's Foreign Assets - BBC News

Bahrain Protests Continue; No End in Sight - Voice of America

Tension Escalates in Bahrain - Washington Post

State Department Cables Detail U.S. Links to Bahrain - Washington Post

Yemen's President Offers Reforms in Bid to Calm Growing Turmoil - VOA

Yemeni Leader Rejects Demands - New York Times

Yemen's President Rejects Demands to Step Down - Washington Post

Yemeni President Rejects Call for Resignation - USA Today

Gaddafi's Crime - Washington Post editorial

Watching Protesters Risk It All - New York Times opinion

Iraq

Suicide Car Bomber Kills 12 North of Baghdad - Associated Press

Iran

Fear Grows in Israel Over Backlash from Egypt - Los Angeles Times

Iran Opposition Considers More Protests - Wall Street Journal

As the Mideast Boils, Iran Stirs the Pot - Time

Afghanistan

Midlevel Taliban Admit to a Rift With Top Leaders - New York Times

Afghans See Warlord Footprints in New Police Force - Associated Press

Neither Guilt Nor Innocence in a War Zone - Stars and Stripes

Petraeus's Comments Offend Karzai Government - Washington Post

31 Killed in Suicide Attack on Afghan Census Office - New York Times

Afghan Police: At Least 30 Killed in Suicide Blast - Associated Press

Afghan Suicide Bomber in Kunduz 'Kills Dozens' - BBC News

In Kabul, It's a Long Climb to the Top - New York Times

In Afghanistan, Glimpses of the Soviet Try - New York Times

2 Officers Reprimanded over Ganjgal Mistakes - Army Times

Afghan Forces Eat Up Return of Fast Food - Wall Street Journal

Pakistan

Reports: American Detained in Pakistan Works for CIA - Voice of America

American Held in Pakistan Worked for CIA - Wall Street Journal

American Held in Pakistan Shootings Worked With CIA - New York Times

U.S.: Raymond Davis Worked for CIA - Washington Post

Lahore Shooting Suspect Raymond Davis 'was CIA' - BBC News

U.S.: Pakistan Must Free Detained CIA Worker - Associated Press

Al-Qaida Figure Believed Killed in U.S. Drone Strike - Associated Press

Pakistan's Nuclear Folly - New York Times editorial

U.S. Department of Defense

Mullen Defends Plans to Meet Middle East Leaders - Stars and Stripes

Mullen Launches Middle East Trip in Saudi Arabia - AFPS

Mullen Continues Middle East Trip in Qatar - AFPS

Defense Leaders Fear Military-civilian 'Disconnect' - The Hill

Navy to Conduct Large-scale Antiterrorism Exercise - Washington Post

Navy to Gauge Readiness in Anti-terrorism Exercise - Associated Press

Aircraft Titans Spark Lobby Blitz - Associated Press

DoD's Contract Auditors Overwhelmed - Federal Times

JFCOM Contractors Await Closure Details - Federal News Radio

Defense Department to Cut 209 Senior Executives - Federal Times

Marine Marksmanship will Face Review - Marine Corps Times

Military's "Challenge Coins" Become Copycat Fad - Washington Post

United States

Right on Gitmo - Washington Post opinion

New Zealand

Strong Earthquake Hits New Zealand - Associated Press

Deadly Quake Rocks New Zealand, Topples Buildings - Reuters

Africa

Sudan President Won't Run Again - New York Times

Arrests in Zimbabwe for Seeing Videos - New York Times

Ivory Coast Violence Flares - Bloomberg

Ivorian Troops Kill Protesters, AU Meets Gbagbo - Reuters

African Leaders in Abidjan to Mediate Ivorian Crisis - BBC News

Activists Seek More Justice After Congo Rape Sentencing - VOA

Fierce Fighting Continues in Somalia - New York Times

Americas

Mourners Pay Respects to U.S. Customs Agent Killed in Mexico - VOA

Violent Juarez Video Game Upsets Critics - CNN News

Cholera Operations in Haiti Seriously Under-funded - Voice of America

Asia Pacific

U.S. to Boost Naval Forces as China Develops Carrier - Reuters

Starving N. Korea Begs for Food - Washington Post

Filipino Gov't, Rebels Aim for 2012 Peace Deal - Associated Press

Europe

Gorbachev Accuses Putin of Conceit, Contempt for Voters - Associated Press

Europe Focuses on Flow of Migrants - New York Times

According to a just-released article in the Washington Post, U.S. officials have confirmed that Raymond Davis is a contract employee of the CIA, responsible for security at a safe house in Lahore. According to the article, a U.S. official presumed that the Pakistani government has known the nature of Davis's work and that today's official confirmation will "make it a hell of a lot harder to get him out." U.S. officials are also concerned about Davis's safety and health while he remains in pre-trial confinement.

Left unsaid was why exactly U.S. officials decided to confirm Davis's status. What this confirmation will mean for Davis and other U.S. government employees in Pakistan, and for the achievement of U.S. objectives in the region, remains to be seen.

---------

16 Feb 2011

In 1999, Gen. Charles Krulak, USMC coined the term "strategic corporal," referring to a low-level soldier whose battlefield decisions could have strategic consequences. Raymond Davis, an "administrative and technical staff" employee at the United States consulate in Lahore, may soon be inducted into the "strategic corporal" Hall of Fame. Davis, now jailed in Lahore and awaiting trial for allegedly murdering two Pakistani men whom Davis claims were attempting to rob him at gunpoint, may accomplish what Osama bin Laden, the Taliban, and ISI scheming have failed to do, namely cause a fundamental break in relations between the United States and Pakistan.

U.S. State Department spokesmen have called for Davis's release under the terms of diplomatic immunity. The Pakistani government has thus far refused and continues to process Davis's criminal case while it reviews his diplomatic status. Meanwhile, authorities in Lahore leaked the police investigation to the local media, which seems to have further inflamed public outrage against Davis and the U.S. government. The U.S. government has cancelled a Feb 23rd meeting with Pakistani and Afghan officials. Activists in Pakistan are threatening Cairo-style protests if Davis is set free.

Davis's case is only the latest in a long line of complaints the U.S. government has against the Pakistani government, most of which center around Pakistan's reluctance to fully cooperate with the U.S. campaign plan in Afghanistan. The U.S. government no doubt already knows that its ability to spring Davis from captivity is inhibited by the same constraint that has limited its ability to compel greater Pakistani compliance concerning Afghanistan. Pakistan's control over supply lines into Afghanistan is a trump card that seems to rank even higher than the billions in aid the U.S. supplies to Pakistan every year.

Pakistan had an opportunity early in the Davis affair to label the two slain men as street thieves and miscreants and to whisk Davis out of the country. The authorities didn't follow this course due to very legitimate fears of a strong backlash from the street, or because some policymakers saw an opportunity to leverage the Davis capture to extract something more from the Americans. With the case having now boiled for over two weeks, it will be extremely difficult for the Pakistani authorities to back down.

The easiest path for U.S. policymakers would be to throw Davis overboard. But they obviously realize that that would set a terrible precedent. The long-term U.S. government strategy for "Af-Pak" contemplates larger long-term diplomatic staffs on both sides of the border, which will include security force assistance trainers and advisors, many of whom will be contractors. If Davis is tossed away, it will become much more difficult to recruit quality individuals for these positions and for those working in the field to be effective at their jobs. If the U.S. government has to pay some sort of ransom to get Davis back, such a payment could create an incentive to arrange more such incidents in the future. Such a downward spiral would cripple the U.S. government's plans to have its diplomats and contractors in the field improving local security in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

What is most surprising about the Davis incident is not that it occurred but that such an incident hasn't happened sooner or more frequently. The Davis incident shows the difficulty the U.S. government has operating inside a country that is hostile to it. Plans to expand that presence will only multiply the risks.

Anti-Government Protests Continue in Bahrain, Libya, Yemen - VOA

Besieged Arab Leaders Struggle to Contain Masses - Washington Post

Protests Spread in Arab Nations - Washington Times

U.S. Urges Arab Governments to Heed Calls for Change - VOA

E.U. to Pledge Support for Arab World Transition - New York Times

U.S. Condemns Crackdowns on Mideast Protests - Associated Press

Bahrain Protesters Set Up Camp at Site of Bloody Clashes - VOA

Opposition Seeks Dissolution of Bahraini Government - New York Times

Saudi Arabia Says Ready to Help Bahrain's Rulers - Washington Post

Students Protest Against Yemen's President - Voice of America

Yemen President Rejects Demand to Step Down - Associated Press

Anti-Government Protests Spread in North Africa - Voice of America

Egyptian Banks Reopen After Strikes, Unrest - Voice of America

Egypt Banks and Pyramids Open as Some Protest in Cairo - Reuters

Libya Death Toll Surges in Crackdown - Wall Street Journal

U.S. 'Gravely Concerned' Over Violence in Libya - New York Times

U.S. 'Gravely Concerned' About Protests in Libya - Washington Post

U.S. Deplores Violence in Libya - Washington Times

Libya Protests: Gaddafi Under Mounting Pressure - BBC News

Libya: Protesters, Security Clash in Capital - Associated Press

Government Building on Fire in Libyan Capital - Reuters

Libyan Regime Defiant as Protests Swell - Los Angeles Times

Libya: 'For Muammar Gaddafi it's Kill or be Killed' - The Guardian

Qaddafi's Son Warns of Civil War, Libyan Protests Widen - New York Times

Gadhafi's Son Warns of Civil War in Libya - Associated Press

Libya: Qaddafi's Son Acknowledges Mistakes by Army - Associated Press

Italy: Libya Considering Constitutional Reforms - Associated Press

Next Question for Tunisia: The Role of Islam in Politics - New York Times

Reform Lawyer Says Tunisia Risks Anarchy - New York Times

Fears of Chaos Temper Calls for Change in Morocco - New York Times

Thousands March Peacefully for Reforms in Morocco - Los Angeles Times

Iraq

Suicide Bomber Strikes Iraq Police Station - New York Times

Iraq: Bomb Kills Police in Samarra - BBC News

Gunmen Torch Iraqi TV Station that Showed Protest - Associated Press

Iran

Security Forces Quell Opposition Protests in Tehran - Washington Post

Iran Squelches Protest Attempt in Capital - New York Times

Ex-President's Daughter Arrested at Iran Protest - Voice of America

Israel Criticizes Iranian Warships Through Suez Canal - Washington Post

Israel Eyes Suez Trip of Iran Warships with Worry - Associated Press

Israel / Palestinians

Palestinians Protest U.S. Veto of U.N. Resolution - Washington Post

Afghanistan

Clinton: 'Diplomatic Surge' to Help End Afghan War - CNN News

Taliban Attack on Afghan Bank Kills 40 - Voice of America

Bomber Attacks Government Office in Afghanistan - New York Times

Afghan Suicide Bomber 'Kills Dozens' in Kunduz - BBC News

Afghan Police: At Least 28 Killed in Suicide Blast - Associated Press

Afghans Allege 65 Civilians Killed in U.S. Operation - Washington Post

NATO Airstrike Is Said to Kill Afghan Civilians - New York Times

Afghanistan Says 50 Civilians Killed in Battle - Los Angeles Times

NATO Disputes Claims it Killed 64 Afghan Civilians - Associated Press

Troops Often Left to Decide Detention - Stars and Stripes

The 'Long War' May Be Getting Shorter - New York Times opinion

Pakistan

U.S. Drone strikes in Pakistan Killing Few HVT Militants - Washington Post

Suspected U.S. Missiles Kill 7 in Northwest Pakistan - Associated Press

Pakistani Troops Kill 15 Militants in Gunbattle - Voice of America

Pause in U.S. Pakistan Strikes Seen Linked to U.S. Prisoner - Reuters

U.S. Department of Defense

Mullen Launches Middle East Trip in Saudi Arabia - AFPS

Mullen Begins Visit Across Turbulent Middle East - Stars and Stripes

New Sticking Points For Thorny Budget Talks - NPR

Marines' EFV Could End Under House Budget Plan - Washington Post

Ex-pilots Shoot Down Timeline of Navy - Washington Times

United States

Memories of 1995 Haunt GOP as Shutdown Talk Grows - Associated Press

Africa

Sudan's Omar al-Bashir 'Will Not Seek Re-election' - BBC News

Sudan's Bashir Not Standing for Re-election-Party - Reuters

President of Uganda Coasts Into a Fourth Term - New York Times

Uganda Election: Museveni Wins Fresh Term - BBC News

African Union Tries to Settle Ivory Coast Crisis - Voice of America

DR Congo Colonel Jailed for Mass Rape - BBC News

Peacekeepers In Somalia Hit Trenches Of Rebels - New York Times

U.S. Navy Warship Tracking Yacht Hijacked by Somali Pirates - ABC News

Deadly Suicide Car Bomb Rocks Mogadishu Police Camp - BBC News

8 Killed in Suicide Car Bomb Attack in Somalia - Associated Press

Americas

Mexico: Deaths of U.S. Agents Highlight Changing Risk - Washington Post

Ciudad Juarez Sees 40 Killed in Violent Weekend - BBC News

Mexican Open: Acapulco Warning for Tennis Players - BBC News

Game Set on Mexican Border Draws Ire - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Chinese Government Responds to Call for Protests - New York Times

Call for Protests Unnerves Beijing - Wall Street Journal

China Police Show Up en Masse at Hint of Protest - Los Angeles Times

China's Security Tsar Warns Over 'Jasmine Revolution' - BBC News

China Calls for Unrest to Be Defused; 'Jasmine' Revolt - Reuters

U.S. Admiral: Chinese Ships Could Communicate Better - Associated Press

S. Korean President Says Open to Talks with North - Associated Press

Kim Jong Il's Guard Set Himself Free - Los Angeles Times

S. Korea to Probe Indonesia 'Spy Break-in' Reports - BBC News

Burma Hardens Stance on Opposition - New York Times

Manila and Maoists Claim Truce Violations Before Talks End - Reuters

Europe

Russia: No More Hugs for Putin - Washington Post opinion

South Asia

Nepal Caught Between China and India - Los Angeles Times

Mumbai Gunman Death Penalty Upheld - BBC News

Death Sentence Upheld for Gunman in Mumbai Attacks - Associated Press

by Andrew Exum

Andrew Exum is a contributor to Small Wars Journal and a fellow at the Center for a New American Security. His dispatches from Egypt will be cross-posted here and on his own blog, Abu Muqawama.

I am rather busy today, traveling around looking for answers to some of the security-related questions I posed in Part I of my Egypt Trip Report (see below). I want to briefly share, though, an interesting wrinkle to a rather polarized debate that has developed concerning the role the Internet and social media played in the protests in Egypt and the eventual downfall of Hosni Mubarak. Both sides of the debate, a friend told me last night, are essentially correct: yes, the Internet, Facebook and Twitter played a terribly important role in mobilizing the Egyptians who filled the streets of Egypt to protest the regime. But yes, too, it took ACTUAL BODIES out there in the streets and not "Facebook Revolutionaries" just re-tweeting the struggle from the comfort of their homes. One interesting piece of analysis I have now heard from several smart observers is that by shutting down the Internet and the cellular phone networks, the Egyptian regime actually *increased* the number of Egyptians on the streets protesting. Not only did shutting down the Internet force people to leave the house and physically connect with their fellow protesters, but one friend noted that if you really want to piss off all of Egypt, a good way to do so is by shutting off cell phone service. More than Facebook or Twitter, cellular phone service unites Egyptians in a virtual community. And by shutting down cellular phone service, you're sure to anger Egyptians of all generations and classes -- and not just the college kids with Facebook accounts. So score one for the enduring power of 20th Century technology, perhaps.