Small Wars Journal

Investigative Series on Wounded Warriors (Updated)

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 11:47am
SWJ friend, Carl Prine, recently published an investigative series on wounded warriors for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

BLUF: Thousands of sick and wounded soldiers within the Army's Warrior Transition program aren't receiving psychological care they need and are being discharged into communities ill-prepared to help them. A nine-month investigation by the Tribune-Review, buttressed by documents passed to the newspaper by soldiers and the Pentagon's Office of Wounded Warrior Care & Transition Policy in Alexandria, Va., reveal an Army reeling from an epidemic of mental and behavioral health problems after nearly a decade of constant combat overseas.

Documents show Army's disservice to broken soldiers

Medical units pay price of lowered recruiting standards, reports say

Transition staff for military wounded poorly trained, stigmatized, fatigued

Military wives take charge to ensure quality care for injured husbands

Army's mental health programs swamped, understaffed

20-year servicewoman, disabled by war, faces ruin

Program for departing service members plagued by inconsistencies, indifference

Update:

Lt. Col. finds success treating 'soldier as a person

Update Two:

Top Army doctor disputes Tribune-Review series

For Some Troops, Powerful Drug Cocktails Have Deadly Results

The Prozac, Paxil, Zoloft, Wellbutrin, Celexa, Effexor, Valium, Klonopin, Ativan, Restoril, Xanax, Adderall, Ritalin, Haldol, Risperdal, Seroquel, Ambien, Lunesta, Elavil, Trazodone War

13 February SWJ Roundup

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 7:53am
Egypt

Egypt's Military Rulers Pledge Peaceful Transition - Washington Post

Military Offers Assurances to Egypt and Neighbors - New York Times

Egypt Army Struggles to Clear Tahrir Square Protesters - BBC News

Tents Give Way to Traffic in Tahrir Square - Los Angeles Times

U.S.-Egyptian Counterterrorism Work in Question - Washington Post

In U.S. Signals to Egypt, Obama Straddled a Rift - New York Times

Obama's Strategy: Apply Pressure, Avoid Intruding - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Path Does Not Have to Follow Iran's - New York Times

The Morning After in Egypt, Grim Realities - Washington Post

Reborn Egypt Gets Back to Business - Los Angeles Times

How the War of Words Was Won in Cairo - New York Times

Egyptians Focus on Recovering Nation's Money - Washington Post

Mubarak Family Riches Attract New Focus - New York Times

Israel Welcomes Egypt's Pledge to Honor Peace Accord - Washington Post

Among the Muslim Brotherhood - New York Times

Mubarak Yet to be Sighted in Sharm el-Sheikh Exile - Washington Post

Is it Really Over? - Foreign Policy opinion

From Cairo's Streets - Washington Post opinion

What Egypt Can Teach America - New York Times opinion

Egypt's Youth and the Faux Reformers - Washington Post opinion

They Did It - New York Times opinion

Tanks vs. Twitter in Egypt - Washington Post opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Looking for a Few Good Mideast Democrats - Associated Press

Palestinian Leaders Suddenly Call for Elections - New York Times

Palestinian Officials Pledge to Hold Elections - Los Angeles Times

Anti-government Protests Broken Up in Yemen and Algeria - BBC News

Security Forces in Yemen Beat Protesters - Associated Press

Algerian Riot Police Break Up Protest - New York Times

U.S. Condemns Syria for Young Blogger's `Spy' Trial - Associated Press

The Upside of Anger - Washington Post opinion

Afghanistan

Police Headquarters Hit in Afghan South - New York Times

Taliban Fighters Kill at Least 19 in Attack - Washington Post

Deadly Taliban Attack on Kandahar Strikes Police HQ - BBC News

19 Killed in Taliban Strike at Police Headquarters - Los Angeles Times

Afghanistan: At Least 18 Killed in Taliban Raid - Associated Press

NATO: 740 Trainers Still Needed for Afghan Forces - Associated Press

Council's Dangerous Task: Reaching Out to Other Women - Associated Press

Afghan Universities Struggling for Funding - Washington Post

Pakistan

Pakistan Official Confident Talks Will Continue - Associated Press

Pakistani Prosecutors Accuse Musharraf - Associated Press

Pakistan Issues Arrest Warrant for Musharraf in Bhutto's Killing - Reuters

Iraq

Egyptian Revolution Sparks Protest Movement in Iraq - Washington Post

Bomber Strikes Shiite Pilgrims' Bus in Iraq - New York Times

Suicide Bomber Kills 38, Wounds Dozens in Iraq - Reuters

We Could Still 'Lose' Iraq - Los Angeles Times opinion

Iran

Egypt and Iran; Different Looks at People Power - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Defense Warns of Crisis Over Funding - Washington Post

Marines Define Future Role Amid Budget Cuts - Associated Press

Powerful Drug Cocktails Have Deadly Results - New York Times

SEALs Help Test New Transition Eyewear - Navy Times

DADT Repeal Training to Include Combat Zones - Army Times

United States

The Return of Pushing Democracy - New York Times

Tea Party Declares War on Military Spending - The Guardian

A Patriot Act Surprise - New York Times editorial

Africa

Nato Seizes 'Pirate Mother Ship' off Somalia - BBC News

Danish Warship Frees Ship Hijacked by Pirates - Associated Press

Americas

14 Dead, Dozens Hurt in Mexico Violence - Associated Press

Bar Attack in Mexico's Guadalajara Kills Six - BBC News

Cuba Dissidents Maseda and Moya Released - BBC News

Asia Pacific

Ex-Philippine Military Chief who Shot Self Buried - Associated Press

Burma Junta Warns Against Disrupting 'Democracy' - Associated Press

Europe

Moscow Police Detain 14 Protesters - Associated Press

American Caught Up in Russia's Tangled Nets - Washington Post

Georgians Build Ties With Russian Caucasus - New York Times

'Great Game' Seeks to Put Afghanistan Experience in Context

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 5:26am
'Great Game' Seeks to Put Afghanistan Experience in Context

By Margaret Mullins

American Forces Press Service

jalalabad.jpg

WASHINGTON, Feb. 11, 2011 -- "The Great Game" was the euphemism the British used when referring to their strategic rivalry with the Russian empire that played out in Afghanistan in the 19th century.

But it was not a game. It was a dirty, bloody, costly engagement for all sides.

"The Great Game" -- a nine-hour play presented at The Shakespeare Theatre Company -- makes it clear that the deadly "game" continues.

First touring in the United States in the fall of 2010, "The Great Game" has returned in a unique manner. The special performance arose from a conversation between Army Maj. Gen. John Nicholson, deputy chief of staff of operations for the International Security Assistance Force and U.S. Forces Afghanistan, and Mary Carstensen, a consultant with Good Stewards, a service-disabled-veteran-owned small business that focuses on supporting State Department and Defense Department contractors.

Nicholson believed "The Great Game" was something that anyone connected with Afghanistan should see, and he went to Assistant Secretary of Defense for Public Affairs Doug Wilson to make it happen.

Through the support of the Bob Woodruff Foundation, the British Council, the Tricycle Theater, the Shakespeare Theatre Company, and the Defense Department, the play has been brought to an audience of policy makers, veterans, active duty military personnel and others connected to today's war in Afghanistan.

Commissioned by British director Nicholas Kent in 2008 and first staged by London's Tricycle Theater in 2009, the play is composed of 19 separately authored acts in three parts. It provides a comprehensive education that could not have been gained from a policy paper or a briefing slide.

"It gives us the opportunity to explore the history of Afghanistan at an intellectual [level]," said Martin Davidson, chief executive of the British Council,, "but also, I think, in an emotional way."

Some, though, see a request from the Pentagon to bring the performance to this audience as contradictory to military culture, and Wilson offered that he had been asked many times about why the Pentagon would be interested.

"Isn't this series of plays going to be anti-war? Isn't this going to provide us with reasons not to be in Afghanistan? The questions were really posed to me as if the arts and the men and women who serve in uniform come from different planets," Wilson said. "And that is absolutely not the case, and this is the proof."

Rather than providing thinly veiled judgments or policy recommendations, as may be expected given the subject matter, "The Great Game" illustrates the overarching narrative and historical complexity that contributes to the present-day psyche of Afghanistan and the nations tied to its past, present and future.

The content of the play provokes thought and discussion, but this production is unique, given the distinctive audience.

Davidson said the series of plays bring a dialogue into the "very heart of individuals" who have experienced so much of what the play has to show.

"It is a real privilege, I think, to be able to watch this play surrounded by people who have experienced much of what the play is exploring," he said.

The value of "The Great Game" lies in its presentation of a multitude of points of view. Some conversations are fictional, some even imagined, but others are dramatizations of edited testimonies and statements of real people. These verbatim acts -- several from within the last year from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and NATO senior civilian representative Mark Sedwill -- grounded the performance in a numbing reality.

Inevitably, allusions linking the British in Afghanistan in the 1800s and the Soviets in the 1980s to the current coalition efforts will be drawn. "The Great Game," however, is not political. Rather, it is focused on the individuals and their motivations, fears and aspirations.

The focus on the individual-level repercussions of conflict resonates in particular with the sponsoring organizations.

"We are trying to engage the public and empower them," said Rene Bardorf, executive director of the Bob Woodruff Foundation, a nonprofit organization dedicated serving injured service members and their families. "We need the smart folks in Washington, D.C., to really talk about strategy and operations and tactics, not just about how to win the war or how to pull out of the conflicts in the Middle East or in Afghanistan."

The brilliance of "The Great Game" lies in its unbiased portrayals of persons and events, fictional and factual. It is an academic and emotional experience, provoking questions rather than dispensing answers, rendering it all the more profound because of this humble and ambitious approach.

As Wilson pointed out, "The arts and theater in particular provide a means of communication to discuss, to explore, and in this case to learn about the context, the history, the culture of a very complex country."

AF-PAK-US Trilateral Meeting Postponed

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 4:22pm
For Immediate Release and Posting

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Office of the Spokesman

February 12, 2011

2011/195

STATEMENT BY PHILIP J. CROWLEY

ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS

Postponement of the U.S. - Afghan - Pakistan Trilateral Meeting

In light of the political changes in Pakistan and after discussions with Afghan and Pakistani officials in Washington, it was agreed to postpone the Trilateral Meeting scheduled for February 23-24. We remain committed to robust engagement between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the United States, as we share many issues of mutual concern and benefit from being at the same table. We look forward to convening a very productive Trilateral Meeting at the earliest opportunity.

-----

U.S.-Pakistan Spat Heats Up, Meeting Off - Associated Press

U.S.-Afghan-Pakistan Meeting Postponed Amid Tensions - Reuters

Pakistan to Charge Detained American With Murder - Wall Street Journal

Pakistan Extends Jailing of American Held in 2 Deaths - New York Times

Pakistan Police: U.S. Shooter Committed 'Clear Murder' - Washingotn Post

Pakistan Accuses U.S. Staffer of 'Coldblooded Murder' - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Weighs Tougher Approach with Pakistan - Associated Press

Pakistan Rejects U.S. Diplomat's Self-Defense Claim - Voice of America

Pakistan: U.S. Diplomat Shot Pakistan Pair 'in Cold Blood' - BBC News

U.S., Pakistani Officials at Odds in Fatal Shooting - Washington Post

Mystery Over Detained American Angers Pakistan - New York Times

U.S.-Pakistan Relations Strained with Jailed Diplomat - Washington Post

Better Understanding How Small Wars End

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 11:34am
Better Understanding How Small Wars End

One driving assumption of Field Manual 3-24: Counterinsurgency states,

General Chang Ting-chen of Mao Zedong's central committee once stated that revolutionary war was 80 percent political action and only 20 percent military. Such an assertion is arguable and certainly depends on the insurgency's stage of development; it does, however, capture the fact that political factors have primacy in COIN. At the beginning of a COIN operation, military actions may appear predominant as security forces conduct operations to secure the populace and kill or capture insurgents; however, political objectives must guide the military's approach.

This 80/20 model assumes that all actions are equivalent in effect, intensity, and outcome. This assumption has led to a conventional wisdom that suggests small wars must be solved politically and not militarily; however, recent research and empirical study is challenging this notion suggesting that most post-World War II conflicts end when the state's security forces effectively suppress the insurgency. In Things Fall Apart: The Endgame Dynamics of Internal Wars, academics from the Defense Analysis department at the Naval Postgraduate School and the Operations Research Department at the United States Military Academy conclude,

All internal wars come to an end, even if -- from the vantage point of the combatants and those who are caught in the crossfire -- they sometimes seem to go on forever. The subject of just how these conflicts end is an important one. There have been almost 300 internal wars initiated since 1945. At this writing 250 of these have come and gone. The human and material costs of these conflicts have been incalculable, much greater than the combined costs of the inter-state wars fought over the same period. Despite the cost and frequency of internal wars, however, we still do not have a close understanding of how they are resolved. What research has been conducted on this subject has focused almost exclusively on the subject of negotiated outcomes. Very little attention, by contrast, has addressed the complementary question of how organized internal conflicts end in the absence of a meaningful negotiated settlement, which is to say, how they are concluded on the battlefield. More than 80% of these wars, it turns out, were resolved by force. This stands in contrast to inter-state conflicts since 1945 which, according to one recent estimate, have had a better than 50% chance of ending in a negotiated compromise.

Read more at Third World Quarterly.

The Future of MISO

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 9:53am
The Future of MISO by Colonel Curtis Boyd, Special Warfare. BLUF:

In 2005, then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld asked whether the term psychological operations, or PSYOP, still had utility in the information age. His point was that the information age posed many branding challenges for PSYOP that adherence to the code of conduct and the Army values simply could not overcome. Earlier this year, absent any improvement in brand image, Admiral Eric Olson, commander of the United States Special Operations Command, directed that the term PSYOP be changed to military information-support operations, or MISO.

But the simple name change can neither eliminate the association of PSYOP with its pejorative predecessors - propaganda and psychological warfare - nor correct the contemporary perception of PSYOP as potentially underhanded and unethical. It is possible, however, that a better appreciation of the historical baggage might lead to a more complete understanding of the challenges facing the MISO force and its future.

The Future of MISO, Special Warfare.

12 February SWJ Roundup

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 1:49am
Egypt

Mubarak Resigns - Voice of America

Egypt Erupts in Jubilation as Mubarak Steps Down - New York Times

Mubarak Steps Down, Jubilation in Cairo Streets - Washington Post

Euphoria in Cairo: 'The Tyrant is Gone' - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Mubarak Resigns as Leader - BBC News

Crowds Rejoice as Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down - Washington Times

Egyptian Military Takes Control - Voice of America

Military Coup was Behind Mubarak's Exit - Associated Press

'Egypt is Free,' Crowds Chant After Mubarak Quits - Associated Press

Mubarak's End Came Quickly, Stunningly - Los Angeles Times

Egypt's Military Leaders Face Power Sharing Test - New York Times

Egyptians Express Faith in Military to Bring Democracy - Washington Post

Resignation Creates Vacuum for U.S. - Washington Post

U.S. Faces Critical Test of Influence on Egypt - Los Angeles Times

Obama Presses Egypt's Military on Democracy - New York Times

Obama: Egypt Will Never Be The Same - Voice of America

World Welcomes Mubarak Resignation - Voice of America

World Leaders Cheer but Remain Wary - New York Times

Quiet Worries as Israel Watches an Ally Depart - New York Times

Israelis Appear Relieved at Mubarak's Decision - Washington Post

Turns out CIA was Right About Mubarak Exit - Associated Press

Uncharted Ground After Stunning End of Egypt's Regime - New York Times

With Peace Egyptians Overthrow a Dictator - Washington Post

Hosni Mubarak Brought Stability to Egypt, At a Price - Voice of America

What It Was Like in Tahrir Square When Mubarak Resigned - VOA

Mubarak will be Remembered for How it Ended - Washington Post

Birthplace Of Uprising Welcomes Its Success - New York Times

Sharm el-Sheikh Long an Escape for Mubarak - Washington Post

Switzerland Freezes Any Assets Tied to Mubarak - Associated Press

Egypt's Challenge: Becoming a Democracy - Washington Post editorial

Egypt After Mubarak - Wall Street Journal editorial

Postcard From a Free Egypt - New York Times opinion

A Democratic Egypt - Washington Post opinion

Exit Mubarak - New York Times opinion

Egypt's Status Quo Stays - Washington Post opinion

Avoiding a New Pharaoh - New York Times opinion

What Is the Egyptian Military's New Role? - New York Times opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Fall of Mubarak Shakes Middle East - Wall Street Journal

Egypt's Historic Moment Spurs New Hope in Arab World - Washington Post

Celebrations Spread Across Middle East - Los Angeles Times

Arab Leaders, Facing Calls for Reform, Consider Next Move - New York Times

Jordan Angered by Articles on the Discontent of Tribes - New York Times

Afghanistan

U.S. Troops: Afghan Police Slowly Making Progress - Associated Press

Afghan 'Supermarket Bomber' is Paraded in Public - BBC News

Afghan Guards Suspected Of Attacking S. Korea Base - Agence France-Presse

Soldier May Testify Against Comrades in Afghan Killings - New York Times

'Great Game' Seeks to Put Afghanistan Experience in Context - AFPS

Pakistan

Pakistan to Charge Detained American With Murder - Wall Street Journal

Pakistan Extends Jailing of American Held in 2 Deaths - New York Times

Pakistan Police: U.S. Shooter Committed 'Clear Murder' - Washingotn Post

Pakistan Accuses U.S. Staffer of 'Coldblooded Murder' - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Weighs Tougher Approach with Pakistan - Associated Press

Pakistan Rejects U.S. Diplomat's Self-Defense Claim - Voice of America

Pakistan: U.S. Diplomat Shot Pakistan Pair 'in Cold Blood' - BBC News

Pakistan Gets Smaller Cabinet in Austerity Effort - Associated Press

Iraq

Iraq Refugees in U.S. Scrutinized for al-Qaida Links - Associated Press

Iran

Malware Was Aimed at Five Sites in Iran, Report Says - New York Times

Ahmadinejad says Egypt, Tunisia were inspired by Iran - Washington Post

Ahmadinejad: Egyptian Protests Herald New Mideast - Associated Press

Iran 'Arrests Activists' Ahead of Planned March - BBC News

WikiLeaks

Assange Extradition Ruling Expected Feb. 24 - Washington Post

WikiLeaks: U.S. Spied on NATO's Top Official - Associated Press

Julian Assange 'Secret' Sweden Rape Trial Claim Denied - BBC News

Sweden 'Toxic' for Assange, Lawyers Contend - New York Times

U.S. Department of Defense

From Pentagon, a Buy Rating on Contractors - New York Times

Gulf War Army Medical Records Destroyed - WTSP News

Marine Receives Navy Cross for Actions in Vietnam War - AFPS

United States

Intelligence Chief Says al-Qaida Still Greatest Threat - AFPS

Panetta: Intelligence Community Needs to Predict Uprisings - AFPS

U.S. Spy Sats, Intel Budget Eyed for Savings - Defense News

U.S., DOD Still Not Taking Cybersecurity Seriously - Stars and Stripes

National Space Security Strategy Outlines Rules of the Road - AFPS

Free Pollard? Never - Los Angeles Times opinion

Africa

South Sudan Clashes with Athor in Jonglei: '100 Dead' - BBC News

Southern Sudan Suffers a Blow as Fighting Ends a Truce - New York Times

105 Die in Fighting in Southern Sudan - Associated Press

Oil: Looming Challenge for Southern Sudan - Washington Post

Charles Taylor War Crimes Trial Extended in The Hague - BBC News

Americas

Mexico: Single Day's Death Toll in Ciudad Juarez is 18 - Los Angeles Times

Mexico Nabs Drug Cartel Boss Wanted in U.S. - Associated Press

Colombia's Farc Rebels Release Two More Hostages - BBC News

Brazil Police Arrested in Rio Corruption and Gang Purge - BBC News

Cuba Releases Political Prisoner Eduardo Diaz - BBC News

Asia Pacific

Russia, Japan Trade Insults Over Islands - Voice of America

Japan Foreign Minister in Moscow Amid Islands Row - BBC News

Thailand, Cambodia Border Fight Moves to U.N. - Voice of America

Somalia 'Pirates' Charged in Malaysia - BBC News

South Asia

India, Pakistan to Restart Wide-ranging Talks - Los Angeles Times

Nepal PM Khanal Appoints Three Ministers - BBC News

This Week at War: Lost in Space

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 8:09pm
Can the Pentagon afford to protect its orbital interests?

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) Will diplomacy and soft power be enough to defend space?

2) How many nukes does Pakistan need?

Will diplomacy and soft power be enough to defend space?

The U.S. Department of Defense released its first-ever National Security Space Strategy (NSSS), on Feb. 4. The document "seeks to maintain and enhance the national security benefits" the United States derives from its activities and capabilities in space. This week, Gregory Schulte, deputy assistant secretary of defense for space policy, explained the new policy in an essay for Foreign Policy. Schulte described the benefits the United States receives from a wide variety of surveillance, communications, and navigation satellites. He also noted the increasing competition among a growing number of players who are seeking their own advantageous positions in orbit. Schulte explained some clever diplomatic and soft-power strategies that U.S. officials hope will protect the country's space interests, along with some hedges in case the soft-power strategies fail. However, growing those hedges could get very expensive for the Pentagon.

Of greatest worry to the Pentagon is the vulnerability of its satellites to attack. In 2007, China shot down one of its old weather satellites with a direct-ascent missile, demonstrating its ability to threaten the space systems on which U.S. military forces depend. In addition to missile attack, many commercial and Defense Department satellites are also vulnerable to directed energy (laser) attack and to electronic jamming. U.S. adversaries may view attacks on U.S. satellites as a high-payoff/low-risk strategy. By attacking U.S. satellites, an adversary could hobble U.S. military forces without the usual indications of warfare, at least in the public's perception. For example, without any images of explosions, burning buildings, or wounded civilians, U.S. policymakers might find it difficult to generate political and diplomatic support for a military response.

As Schulte explained, U.S. officials hope to use diplomacy and soft-power tools to deter attacks on satellite networks. The first such hoped-for line of deterrence is to establish a code of conduct and international norms against attacks on space infrastructure. A second strategy is for the United States to share some its defense-related space platforms with other countries. In this case, an adversary with designs on U.S. space assets would be forced to attack a shared platform, and thus attack an alliance of countries and not just the United States. U.S. officials hope that such a complication would deter such an attack in the first place.

Such soft-power methods might not be effective against determined adversaries who may already be isolated from the international system and thus have little more to lose from violating international norms or alliances. The NSSS hedges against the failure of the soft-power approaches. Proposed hedges include hardening satellites against kinetic and electronic attack and keeping redundant satellites standing by in launch position to rapidly replace those destroyed. Another hedge is to vastly increase the number of reconnaissance aircraft and terrestrial communication platforms as substitutes for space-based systems. Finally, the Air Force -- operator of the global positioning navigation satellite system and thus the service most familiar with that system's vulnerabilities -- is seeking in its technology roadmap to devise a new system of precise navigation that won't rely on satellites. Hedging against the vulnerability of space-based systems will not be cheap.

And if soft-power strategies and redundant hedges fail, the Pentagon reserves the right, as Schulte explained at a Pentagon briefing "to respond in self-defense to attacks on space. And the response may not be in space either." With much more to lose in space than any other adversary, an escalating war in space is the last thing the Pentagon would like to see. Thus the threat to shift the mode of retaliation to terrain an adversary may value most.

Although the U.S. government's diplomatic and soft-power tactics to defend its interests in space are clever, they may not be enough against rogue state or non-state actors with few of their own assets at risk. In this case, the Pentagon will need to harden and diversify its space assets or develop terrestrial work-arounds that avoid its vulnerabilities in space. Those costly solutions could not come at a worse time for the Pentagon's budget masters.

How many nukes does Pakistan need?

A Jan. 31 article in the Washington Post reported that researchers at three separate think-tanks now estimate that Pakistan has roughly 100 nuclear warheads, double the number it was estimated to have just four years ago. When compared with the estimates of the arsenals of the world's other nuclear powers, prepared by the Federation of American Scientists, Pakistan has moved ahead of its rival, India, and sometime this decade could surpass Great Britain and China. Apparently leaving nothing to chance, Pakistan has now begun construction on a fourth plutonium-producing reactor which when operational will allow it to grow its nuclear weapons stockpile even more. Just how many nuclear weapons does Pakistan need?

The most obvious and enduring explanation for the continuing buildup in Pakistan's nuclear stockpile is the inescapable demographic and economic superiority enjoyed by India. India's economy is nearly nine times larger than Pakistan's, it spends 7.6 times more per year on its military and can mobilize 6.8 times as many military-aged males. Absent the arrival of previously unknown trust between the two countries, nuclear weapons are the only way for Pakistan to reassure itself about this unfixable strategic imbalance.

Of course, this has always been the case. Why the recent ramp-up in Pakistan's nuclear production? The completion of the civil nuclear agreement between Washington and New Dehli, which opened India's civilian nuclear industry to the global market, was no doubt highly disturbing to Pakistan. With India's nuclear technology and expertise fungible, the civil nuclear agreement allowed India to divert resources to its military nuclear program. Pakistan likely concluded that it had to respond to a potentially much larger Indian nuclear program at some point in the future.

Another point of stress for Pakistan is the need to divert ground combat power to the fight against the Pakistani Taliban along its northwest frontier. The United States government has urged such deployments for years. Pakistani policymakers may have concluded that they could take the risk of redeploying ground forces from the Indian frontier to the northwest only when its nuclear deterrent was larger and more survivable. Interestingly, when asked about the Washington Post story on the doubling of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal -- a clear affront to U.S. President Barack Obama's nonproliferation goals -- the State Department's spokesman had no comment.

Finally, Iran's eventual nuclear breakout will not help matters in Pakistan's neighborhood. With the prospect of another neighbor having nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles and aircraft to deliver them, Pakistani policymakers likely concluded that even more warheads are needed in order to assure that a retaliatory reserve will always survive.

The latest round of nuclear news out of Pakistan demonstrates that South Asia has not found a way out of the security dilemma it has long been in. The addition of Iran to the game won't help. The Obama administration has attempted to address the issue, but its efforts may be no match for the scale and tenacity of this problem.