| Small Wars Journal

Picking Up The Pieces Following Kandahar Offensive by Abubakar Siddique and Mohammad Sadiq Rishtinai, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. BLUF: Sustaining military gains in the long-term depends on the performance of ISAF's Afghan partners.

Read more about Picking Up The Pieces Following Kandahar Offensive

5 February SWJ Roundup

Egypt

Mubarak Meets Economic Team as Protests Enter Day 12 - Voice of America

Egypt Officials Seek to Ease Mubarak Out - New York Times

Former Loyalist Emerges as Presidential Possibility - Washington Post

Egypt's Army Moves to Restore Order - Los Angeles Times

Steps Toward a Solution in Egyptian Crisis - Washington Post

Mubarak Moves to Restart Economy - BBC News

U.S. Presses Egyptian Army to Bless Talks - Washington Post

Egypt's Military Remains Neutral, Mullen Says - AFPS

Where Egypt Military's Loyalties Lie Remains Unclear - Washington Post

Discontented Within Egypt Face Power of Old Elites - New York Times

Tahrir Square Remains Primary Battle Site - Washington Post

Disappearances up the Ante in Tahrir Square - Los Angeles Times

More Attacks and Detentions for Journalists in Cairo - New York Times

Amid Crackdown, al-Jazeera Endures - Washington Post

Explosion Rocks Egyptian Pipeline to Israel - Voice of America

Gas Pipeline Explodes in North Sinai - Los Angeles Times

Natural Gas Supply to Israel Cut Off After Blast - Washington Post

Egyptian Protesters Mostly Not Thinking About Israel - Voice of America

On Egypt, Europe Follows U.S. Line - Washington Post

Europeans Struggle for Consistency on Egypt - New York Times

Egypt's Two Futures - Washington Post editorial

After Mubarak, What's Next for Egypt? - Washington Post opinion

Beware the Islamists in the Wings - Los Angeles Times opinion

Middle East / North Africa

Obama Said to Fault Spy Agencies' Mideast Forecasting - New York Times

Crisis in Egypt Tests U.S. Ties With Israel - New York Times

Revolt in Egypt Inspires Palestinians - Voice of America

Turmoil Complicates Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks - Washington Post

Israel Offers Economic Package for Palestinians - New York Times

Jordan Faces Rising Tide of Unrest, but Few Expect Revolt - New York Times

Laid-back Attitude in Yemen Leavens the Revolution - Washington Post

'Day of Rage' for Syrians Fails to Draw Protesters - New York Times

New Lebanese Prime Minister Unlikely to Alter Policy - Voice of America

Return of Islamic Leader Worries Some Tunisian Women - Voice of America

Why Yemen Won't Fall - New York Times opinion

Afghanistan

In Taliban's Heartland, U.S. and Afghan Forces Dig In - New York Times

Bombs Kill 2 NATO Troops in Southern Afghanistan - Associated Press

Pakistan

Pakistan to Trim Large Cabinet - Los Angeles Times

Pakistan Likely to Release U.S. Diplomat - Associated Press

Iraq

Pentagon Fears Iraq Becoming 'Forgotten War' - Christian Science Monitor

Iraqi Leader Says He'll Cut His Salary in Half - New York Times

Iran

Khamenei Calls Uprisings 'Islamic Awakening' - Los Angeles Times

Iran's Khamenei Says Uprisings Represent 'Defeat' for U.S. - Washington Post

U.S. Department of Defense

Mullen Discusses Egypt, Other Topics on 'Daily Show' - AFPS

National Security Space Strategy Targets Safety, Stability - AFPS

DADT: Democrats Ask DOD for Honorable Discharge - Stars and Stripes

United States

Obama Said to Fault Spy Agencies' Mideast Forecasting - New York Times

Crisis in Egypt Tests U.S. Ties With Israel - New York Times

Lawyer Disputes Portrayal of Detainee - New York Times

'American-backed' Policy - Washington Post opinion

United Kingdom

U.K. PM Says Multiculturalism Has Failed - BBC News

Africa

U.S.: Time Running Out for Peaceful Departure for Ivory Coast's Gbagbo - VOA

U.S. Critical of Assembly in Somalia - New York Times

Americas

Venezuela: An American Has the President's Ear - New York Times

Asia Pacific

China Developing Counterspace Weapons - Defense News

Parliament Picks Insider as President of Burma - New York Times

Burma Chooses Junta Insider Thein Sein for President - Washington Post

Thai-Cambodia Clashes Kill 1 More Before Truce - Associated Press

Europe

U.S.-Russia Nuclear Arms Treaty Finalized - Associated Press

Europeans Struggle for Consistency on Egypt - New York Times

On Egypt, Europe Follows U.S. Line - Washington Post

South Asia

In India, Fears of Rising Islamic Extremism - Washington Post

Mob Attacks Sri Lankan Opposition Protest - Associated Press

Read more about 5 February SWJ Roundup

Revolt in North Africa, was it predicted?

Revolt in North Africa, was it predicted?

With the recent turmoil in North Africa and unrest in the Middle East, we decided to dust off and revisit several previously published articles by friends of Small Wars Journal. The intent is two-fold: 1. To determine if some of these events were predictable given open source research and analysis and 2. To better understand the causal factors leading towards small wars. In the Middle East, some of these factors are self-evident: oppressive regimes, lack of personal and religious freedoms, lack of jobs, and lack of hope in the future; however, scarcity of resources remains an understudied area.

In 2004 two scholars, Jason Morrissette and Douglas Borer, published an article in the US Army War College journal, Parameters. The article entitled, Where Oil and Water Do Mix: Environmental Scarcity and Future Conflict in the Middle East and North Africa, address causes of future conflict in the Middle East, however, it departs from mainstream scholarship by arguing that water (not oil), and water's connection to food supplies, pressures created by increases in population, and the global economy will become a leading cause of war in the future. Morrissette and Borer argue: 1) countries that have sufficient water to grow their own food will be less vulnerable to conflict; 2) countries that do not have sufficient water to grow their own food might avoid resource based conflict if they have sufficient economic capacity to purchase food on the world market; 3) as globalization increases the demand for food, and "free trade" organizations such as the WTO (World Trade Organization) pressure food exporting countries to lower farm subsidies, all countries will see a rise in food prices; 4) Some countries (including Tunisia and Egypt), are highly vulnerable to these structural trends.

Considering that the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization announced this week that global food prices have hit a historic high, this essay is worth a read.

Read more about Revolt in North Africa, was it predicted?

This Week at War: The Pakistan Scenario

How the United States could end up paying even more for an anti-American Egypt.

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) In its dealings with the United States, will the new Egypt take after Pakistan?

2) Should the Pentagon flaunt its cyberpower?

In its dealings with the United States, will the new Egypt take after Pakistan?

This week's battle between pro- and anti-Mubarak supporters for control of Cairo's Tahrir Square only deepened the mystery over where Egypt's latest revolution is headed. Mubarak has promised to step down after presidential elections in September, though it remains to be seen if he'll have to make an exit much sooner than that. What will follow, no one can say. The U.S. government has long granted a generous foreign assistance package to Egypt in order to maintain Mubarak's support for critical interests in the region. Regardless of what form the new, post-Mubarak government takes, the financial price the United States will have to pay to keep Egypt on its side will almost certainly go up.

Whether the next government is authoritarian or representative, the street protests of the past two weeks will force it to do more than Mubarak ever did to reflect popular will. The Mubarak government was as pro-American as U.S. policymakers could reasonably hope for; its successor will almost certainly be less so. Its level of dependence on the United States will start out the same, but its level of antagonism will very likely go up. At the same time the new Egyptian government will also have important leverage over the United States. Since 9/11, Pakistan's leaders have shown how leverage and antagonism can be combined into a money machine financed by the U.S. treasury. Obama and his officials should expect the new Egyptian government, whatever form it takes, to quickly apply the same formula.

According to the Pew Global Attitudes Project, the populations of both Pakistan and Egypt have rock bottom opinions of the U.S. government. With popular will now out on the streets, political leaders in post-Mubarak Egypt will profit from burnishing their anti-American credentials. A less cooperative bilateral relationship with the United States will likely result. As is currently the case with Pakistan, U.S. officials will soon have to deal with counterparts in Cairo who will face a limited ability to cooperate with U.S. objectives due to popular resistance.

In spite of this antagonism, U.S. officials will still have to seek Egyptian government cooperation on critical U.S. interests in the region. These include Egypt's continued support for U.S. military activities in the region, its peace treaty with Israel, its active support of counterterrorism, and its continued adherence to a policy of nuclear non-proliferation.

These policies would seem largely to be in Egypt's interest as well. However, that does not mean that Egypt will agree to deliver on these U.S. interests for free. Pakistan has shown how to combine leverage over the United States and popular anti-American sentiment into a method of extracting ever more foreign assistance from the U.S. government. U.S. policymakers may grumble that the Pakistanis have delivered little on al Qaeda in many years or that it harbors the Afghan Taliban or that it is rapidly expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal. Given the leverage Pakistan has over the U.S. military campaign in Afghanistan, it seems that the less Pakistan cooperates, the more foreign assistance it receives from the Washington; according to the State Department, U.S. foreign assistance to Pakistan has gone from $727 million in 2007 to a request of $3.05 billion in 2011. Similarly, Yemen has used its tepid support for U.S. counter-terrorism goals to vault its annual U.S. foreign assistance from $19.4 million in 2008 to a request of $106.6 million this year.

The post-Mubarak government could very well follow Pakistan's lead in combining Egypt's inherent anti-Americanism and the U.S. government's critical interests in the region to form a powerful lever to pry more cash out of the U.S. treasury. Although some may view such payments to "frenemies" as unsavory, most U.S. policymakers likely view them as a bargain when compared to the alternatives. Mubarak's pro-American approach yielded $1.56 billion in assistance this year. With a little bad behavior, the next Egyptian government should be able to do much better than that.

Should the Pentagon flaunt its cyberpower?

During an interview he gave just prior to retiring as the commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Air Force General Kevin Chilton asserted that if the Pentagon wants to use deterrence to defend its interests in cyberspace, at some point it will need to put on an intimidating display of just how much turmoil it can inflict online. "[I]f we're going to use cybercapabilities to deter, that's going to beg for some demonstration of that capability," Chilton said. "There's no plans for anything that would demonstrate a [cyberattack] capability at this time. But I think, if we're going to think about deterrence, which we do at Stratcom, these are the kinds of challenges for the future for us."

Chilton is no doubt using Cold War nuclear deterrence as a model for dissuading potential cyber adversaries. Images of massive mushroom clouds over the Nevada desert or Bikini Atoll were presumably enough to convince Soviet decision-makers to think long and hard about making potentially provocative moves. But how would the U.S. government actually go about making a similar display of cyberpower? And is Cold War deterrence even the appropriate model of conflict in cyberspace?

The most difficult problem regarding cyberdeterrence is attribution, knowing who the attacker is, where to find him, and what assets he values that are vulnerable to retaliation. Chilton asserted that attribution "is more difficult in this domain but it's not impossible," and that Stratcom is getting better at it. A policy of deterrence through the threat of retaliation won't be credible until Stratcom reliably solves the attribution problem -- attackers won't fear Stratcom cyberretaliation as long as they know that Stratcom can't find them. And until Stratcom finally does solve the problem, a demonstration of offensive cybercapability would be diplomatically damaging and would unnecessarily reveal capabilities that best remain inside an adversary's imagination.

While the Pentagon's computer engineers work on those problems, the government's attorneys have some cyberwork of their own to complete. Writing in the New York Times, Richard Falkenrath, a former deputy commissioner for counterterrorism for the New York Police Department and deputy homeland security adviser to President George W. Bush, says that it is unclear what legal authority a U.S. president has to conduct offensive cyberoperations. Under his commander-in-chief powers, a president presumably has the authority to employ cyberweapons in support of a military campaign against foreign adversaries. But in the cyber world, the U.S. government's offensive cyberoperations may run through or target assets or persons inside the United States. Just as it is highly questionable whether a president has legal authority to order Predator drone strikes inside the United States, according to Falkenrath a president's authority to employ cyberweapons at or through U.S. cyber infrastructure is currently ambiguous and should be resolved with a statute from Congress.

Is Cold War deterrence even the appropriate model of conflict in cyberspace? Rather than looking to the nuclear standoff against the Soviet Union for lessons, a better model might be the Pentagon's more recent experience chasing down anonymous insurgents who hide within the non-combatant civilian population. If cyberadversaries are insurgents who hide among the world's computer servers, as the counterinsurgent, the Pentagon would need to persuade those servers (and their owners) to be on its side of the conflict. Just like counterinsurgency in the physical world, winning that struggle in cyberspace will take diplomacy and a whole-of-government approach.

A Populace-Centric Foreign Policy

Ed. Note: Bob Jones' article
A Populace-Centric Foreign Policy, published at World Politics Review in Feb
2009, will be available in front of their paywall until Feb 13, courtesy of WPR. Thanks to Judah,
Hampton, and all. And thanks, Bob.

Guest post by Robert C. Jones:

The Department of State focuses on governments. The Department of Defense

focuses on Threats. With two such powerful governmental organizations at work,

it is only natural that U.S. foreign policy would also so be focused on

relationships with allied governments to work together to contain, deter, and if

necessary, defeat any array of threats. Lost in this equation are the people.

In an age of rapid and widespread information and transportation technology the

people are connected and empowered in ways that were unimaginable even a few

short years ago.

As events continue to unfold across North Africa and the Middle East, U.S.

foreign policy is finding itself faced with a growing dilemma. Three broad

categories of parties are all in play. First there are the long-term allies of

the U.S. in the form of governments. Many Arab allies are under growing

pressure to resign or reform, and in the midst of these sits Israel with its own

unique concerns and challenges. Then there are the populaces of these nations.

Each of these Arab nations rank among the least free on the planet, with

populaces trapped in conditions of economic poverty, few civil liberties, and

even fewer legal means to break free from either of those conditions. Lastly

there are the threats. Shia Iran is a natural opponent of the primarily Sunni

states that ally with the U.S., of Israel, and since our falling out over the

Shah, with the U.S. as well. Non-state actors are an even greater concern; as

these threats are nowhere and everywhere at the same time, growing in power and

influence while enjoying a sanctuary of status that renders them effectively

immune from the majority of the tools of statecraft.

Should the U.S. stand by governments regardless of how far their domestic

policies are from those espoused by the U.S.? Should the U.S. rationalize

overlooking civil rights abuses in the name of national security?

I wrote

A Populace-Centric Foreign Policy two years ago as I looked at

this growing problem. The editors at World Politics Review had seen a

similar

piece that I had published here on the Small Wars Journal and asked if I would

craft a similar product for a policy oriented audience. Current events prompted

me to seek permission to pull that second article back up to share with the

Small Wars community. World

Politics Review concurred, and was good enough to make the article publicly

available until February 13^th so you can access it. The article

offers the simple proposition that the relative

balance of power is shifting. States are becoming less powerful while non-state

organizations grow in power. Perhaps it is time to become less State-centric in

our foreign policy approaches, less threat-centric in our foreign policy

approaches, and become instead a bit more Populace-centric. This is not

to be confused with the tactical approach to COIN being practiced in

Afghanistan, but rather is a shifting of priority at the strategic/policy

level. States and threats will always be with us, but how we balance

relationships with governments, approaches to threats, and relationships with

populaces is due for a major overhaul.

Get Off the Couch, Small Warriors!

Who says we're just a bunch of theorists, analysts, and policy wonks? How

about someone from our Small Wars Journal community taking on a mission & taking

down the competition?

Received this from Lauren via email. Obviously her encyclopedic casting

genius sensed that the center of

c.2009 hotness was ready to stretch it's legs again. Speaking of stretching,

I guess this announcement is stretching our sense of just how big our community

tent is, but we're all about a big and inclusive tent, so here goes with this casting

call:

WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR: Highly specialized former military, special forces
and/or law enforcement agents who are mentally and physically fit. In each episode,
four contestants will have to re-enact actual missions that were executed by
elite branches of the military - IDF, Spetsnaz, MI-6, Delta Force, Recon Marines,
Green Berets, Navy SEALs, etc.
Attached please find our
press release
for more information about the project. Please feel free to pass on to anyone
and everyone (age 18+) as we are looking to cast a LOT of episodes. Also, feel
free to take a look at our website
www.metalflowersmedia.com so you can become familiar with our slate. We've
proudly cast THE COLONY, BULLRUN, PITCHMEN, DUEL, AMERICA'S TOUGHEST JOBS and
the upcoming INFRASTRUCTURE VIGILANTE.
Anyone who is interested can email me at lkalbcasting-at-gmail-dot-com [edited
by SWJ to reduce Lauren's spam, you know how to adjust] or call me at +1
(505) 552-2780.

So go out there with all you've got and win just one for the Gipper. Better

this one than Dirty Jobs.

Read more about Get Off the Couch, Small Warriors!

4 February SWJ Roundup

Egypt

Egyptians Muster for New Protest as Crackdown Widens - New York Times

Protesters Again Fill Tahrir Square for 'Departure' Rally - Washington Post

Egyptian Throngs Have a Word for Mubarak: 'Leave!' - Los Angeles Times

Anti-Mubarak Activists Pour Into Tahrir Square - Associated Press

Egyptian Police Start Wave of Arrests - Voice of America

Egypt Protesters Set Deadline as Clashes Spread - Los Angeles Times

Mubarak Regrets Violence but Sees Chaos Without Him - New York Times

Mubarak 'Fears Chaos if He Quits' - BBC News

White House, Egypt Discuss Plan for Mubarak's Exit - New York Times

Senators Question Intelligence Anticipation of Uprising - Washington Post

U.S. Intelligence on Arab Unrest Draws Criticism - Associated Press

Crackdown in Egypt Widens to Foreign Observers - New York Times

Foreign Journalists Detained by Police - Washington Post

How Tahrir Sq. Turned Into War Zone Overnight - Christian Science Monitor

Movement's Leaderless Status May Become a Liability - New York Times

Muslim Brotherhood Spokesman Predicts End for Mubarak Regime - VOA

As Islamist Group Rises, Its Intentions Are Unclear - New York Times

Muslim Brotherhood Looks to Gains in Egypt Protest - Associated Press

Egypt's President Fed Up But Says Cannot Leave - Voice of America

Gangs Hunt Journalists and Rights Workers - New York Times

Egypt Chaos: Dozens of Reporters Beaten, Arrested - Associated Press

U.N. Evacuates Staff From Egypt - Voice of America

State Department Notes 'Constructive' Egyptian Military Role - AFPS

A Closer Look at the Fighting in Egypt - New York Times multimedia

Egypt's Agonies - New York Times editorial

Egypt, Isolation Awaits - Washington Post opinion

We Are All Egyptians - New York Times opinion

Mubarak Can Save Egypt - Washington Post opinion

Hosni Mubarak Agonistes - New York Times opinion

Vehicle for Freedom - Washington Post opinion

Bonfire of American Vanities - New York Times opinion

Through Obama's Eyes - Washington Post opinion

Yemen

Competing Protests Begin in Yemeni Capital - Voice of America

In Yemen, Protesters Face Off In Peace - New York Times

Anti-government Rallies in Yemen Stay Calm - Washington Post

Tens of Thousands March Against Yemen's President - Associated Press

Jordan

Jordan's King Acknowledges Reforms Have Stumbled - Associated Press

Jordan's King Meets With Muslim Brotherhood - New York Times

WikiLeaks Cable: U.S. Diplomat Doubts Jordan Reforms - Associated Press

Tunisia

Tunisia Replaces Regional Governors - Reuters

E.U. Ministers Visit Tunisia - Voice of America

Middle East / North Africa

Turmoil Heartens U.S. Foes - Wall Street Journal

Amid Arab Protests, U.S. Influence Has Waned - Washington Post

Israel Ponders Border Security Amid Unrest - Washington Post

Security Up Near Syrian Parliament Ahead of Demos - Associated Press

Lebanon's Economic Path Likely to Remain Unchanged - VOA

Hamas Allows Anti-Mubarak Protest in Gaza - Associated Press

Algeria State of Emergency: Bouteflika 'Signals End' - BBC News

Algeria Promises More Freedoms to Avert Protests - Reuters

The Arab Reform Dodge - Washington Post editorial

Afghanistan

Kandahar: Safer for Good or Just Safer for Now? - Stars and Stripes

Petraeus Discusses Troop Transition Options - AFPS

Afghan, Coalition Forces Investigate Explosion - AFPS

Insurgents Target More Afghan Government Officials - AFPS

U.N.: Reputation of Afghan Police Worsening in South - Associated Press

In Afghanistan, a Lot of Luck Goes a Long Way - New York Times

Pakistan

Many in Pakistan Fear Unrest at Home - New York Times

Pakistani Judge Orders American Held 8 More Days - Associated Press

22,000 Pakistanis Flee Fighting Near Afghan Border - Associated Press

Karachi Police Swoop on Suspected 'Target Killers' - BBC News

Iraq

Lawmakers Warn Administration of Cuts in Iraq Aid - Associated Press

U.S. Memo: Iraqi PM Said Iran, Syria Armed Militants - Associated Press

Iraqis Reject Insurgents, Support Transition - AFPS

Double Bombing Kills 8 in Western Iraq - Associated Press

Iran

Dutch Government Seeks Return Of Hanged Woman's Body From Iran - Reuters

Rumsfeld Book

Rumsfeld's Defense of Known Decisions - New York Times

Rumsfeld Defends Iraq War Handling - BBC News

Cyber Warfare

Proposal for Cyber War Rules of Engagement - BBC News

U.S. Department of Defense

Unmanned Subs Making Waves in Undersea Warfare - Stars and Stripes

Ft. Hood Shooting: Senate Report Blasts Army - Stars and Stripes

Ft. Hood Attack: Senate Probe Faults Army, FBI - Washington Post

Authorities Faulted in Fort Hood Attack - New York Times

Air Force to Cut 2,300 Officers From its Rolls - Stars and Stripes

Pentagon Seeks Future Information Technologists - AFPS

United States

Obama Cautiously Shifting World View on Democracy - Washington Post

Mullen: Civilian-Military Partnerships Critical to World Affairs - AFPS

Afghan Detainee Dies After Exercise at Guantanamo - Associated Press

World

Food Costs At Records, U.N. Warns Of Volatile Era - Reuters

Africa

Nearly 55 Million Registered in Nigeria Vote Drive - Associated Press

U.N. Urges International Action as Somali Drought Deepens - VOA

Somali Parliament Extends Mandate for Three Years - BBC News

U.S. Criticizes Somali Legislators' Extension Vote - Associated Press

Americas

Mexican Prisons Fail to Keep Traffickers on Inside - Washington Post

Police Chief Is Shot Dead in Mexico - New York Times

Mexico Police Chief Killed in Nuevo Laredo - BBC News

Police Chief, Guards Killed in Mexican Border City - Associated Press

Mexico Kidnaps Apparently Leave 25 Kids on Streets - Associated Press

Haiti: Candidates for Runoff Presidential Election - Washington Post

Haiti Officials Exclude Ruling Party Candidate From Runoff - Los Angeles Times

Haiti's Presidential Run-off Candidates Announced - BBC News

Foreign Powers Praise Haiti Election Decision - Associated Press

Rape Flourishes Rubble of Haitian Earthquake - Los Angeles Times

Haiti Steps Forward - Washington Post editorial

Asia Pacific

China Eyes U.S. Defense Contracts - Wall Street Journal

Gunmen Kill Five Villagers in Southern Thailand - BBC News

Shooting Breaks Out on Thai-Cambodian Border - Associated Press

Military Insider Selected as Burma's President - New York Times

U.S. Troops Join Rescue in Flood-Hit Philippines - Associated Press

Europe

French Foreign Minister Urged to Resign - New York Times

Spain Reports Arrest of 2 in Al-Qaida Forgery Ring - Associated Press

Cartoon Trial: Kurt Westergaard's Attacker Convicted - BBC News

Denmark Finds Cartoonist Attacker Guilty Of Terror - Reuters

Silenced Belarusan Bands Cross the Border - Washington Post

Russia Defense Chief Visits Disputed Islands - Associated Press

South Asia

Nepal: Jhalanath Khanal Elected New Prime Minister - BBC News

Read more about 4 February SWJ Roundup

Putting a value on amphibious capability

The recent cancellation of the U.S. Marine Corps' Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) sparked a debate over how the Marine Corps could maintain a capability to conduct an amphibious assault against high-end adversaries on contested shorelines. While the debate over this important, hopefully rare and hypothetical scenario continues, it is also worth considering the value of very real strategic shaping operations Marine Corps and Navy amphibious forces conduct nearly every day somewhere in the world.

In Tough Choices: Sustaining Amphibious Capabilities' Contributions to Strategic Shaping, a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Maren Leed and Benjamin Moody analyze the value amphibious operations currently make to America's "strategic shaping" strategy. As the debate over the EFV showed, amphibious capabilities are expensive and compete with other defense priorities. In their report, Leed and Moody assert that calculations that look for savings in the amphibious budget should take into account the cost it would take other substitute forces to perform the strategic shaping or "Phase Zero" missions currently performed by U.S. amphibious forces and the risk assumed by no longer performing those shaping missions.

Resources for the Leed-Moody report included numerous interviews with a variety of military officers and diplomats, along with examinations of unit records, post-deployments briefs, and command histories. In the preparation of the report, the authors assessed the importance and impact by geographical region of various shaping activities (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, partnership activities, and regional assurance and deterrence operations). Similarly compared were the regional importance of the various attributes of amphibious capabilities (breadth, visibility, responsiveness, scalability, persistence, mobility, etc.).

Leed and Moody recommend that decision-makers in the Pentagon adopt an opportunity cost model when contemplating force structure reductions. In addition to standard cost and risk considerations, such a model would also consider the costs shifted to other capabilities by a force structure decision and the risks assumed from foregoing strategic shaping activities.

In addition, listen to this 6:38 audio summary of the report delivered by Maren Leed.

Nothing follows.

Subscribe to

Search