| Small Wars Journal

The linked (with hot links) Lebanon and Tunisia Analysis Roundup is brought to you by the Young Professionals in Foreign Policy's (YPFP) Middle East Discussion Group (MEDG). The YPFP Middle East Discussion Group focuses on political, security, sociological and cultural trends in the contemporary Middle East and North Africa as well as the United States' relationship with and role in the region.

Read more about Lebanon and Tunisia Analysis Roundup

Kandahar: Afghan Local Police Initiative

LTC David Flynn, Commanding Officer of Combined Joint Task Force 1-320th in Kandahar, responds to Joshua Foust (Registan.net), who responded to Paula Broadwell's ("Best Defense Afghanistan correspondent") original post at Tom Ricks's Best Defense. Also linked is a discussion on this and related issues by Andrew Exum (Abu Muqawama / CNAS) and Foust.

Read more about Kandahar: Afghan Local Police Initiative

20 January SWJ Roundup

Afghanistan

Karzai Delays Parliament's Inauguration for Election Probe - Washington Post

Karzai Delays Afghan Parliament to Allow More Fraud Probes - Reuters

2 NATO Service Members Killed in Afghan Attacks - Associated Press

Taliban Rejects Report of Leader's Hospitalization - Associated Press

ISAF, Karzai Condemn Insurgent Bomb Attack - AFPS

Pakistan

Study Tracks Pearl Murder Probe - Wall Street Journal

Khalid Sheik Mohammed Killed U.S. Journalist Daniel Pearl - Washington Post

Report Faults Daniel Pearl Murder Investigation - Associated Press

Iraq

Sadr Return Complicates '11 Iraq Withdrawal Strategy - Associated Press

Bomber Uses Ambulance to Hit Iraqi Police Headquarters - New York Times

At Least 15 Killed in 3rd Straight Day of Suicide Attacks - Washington Post

Car Bomb Kills 3 Near Iraqi Police Headquarters - Associated Press

Last Christians Ponder Leaving a Hometown in Iraq - New York Times

Canada: Man Charged Over Attacks on Soldiers in Iraq - Wall Street Journal

Canadian Man With Conspiracy to Kill Americans in Iraq - Bloomberg

Iran

Iran's Nuke Program-How Much Time for Diplomacy? - Associated Press

Powers to Press Defiant Iran In Nuclear Row - Reuters

Clinton: Iran May Face Further U.S. Sanctions - BBC News

Iran Tests Missile in Display Before Nuclear Talks - Associated Press

Q&A: Can Powers Revive Nuclear Fuel Deal With Iran? - Reuters

Al Qaeda

Thou Shalt Steal, al Qaeda Tells Militants - Washington Times

Islam

Tracing Islamic History Through Its Scripts - New York Times

WikiLeaks

DoS Officials: WikiLeaks Revelations Not Damaging' - New York Times

Swiss Banker Re-arrested Over Wikileaks Charges - BBC News

Swiss Arrest Ex-Banker For Giving Data to WikiLeaks - Reuters

U.S. Department of Defense

Military 'Mentors' Quit Over Disclosure Rules - USA Today

Suicides Nearly Double Among Army Guard, Reserves - Stars and Stripes

Mixed Findings on Military Suicides - Washington Post

New Problems Disclosed on 2 Models of F-35 - Air Force Times

Department Begins Project for Vietnam War Veterans - AFPS

Hunter: Military Chiefs Must OK Before Gay Ban Lifted - San Diego Union-Tribune

Need for Savings vs. 21st-Century Threats - Washington Post editorial

United States

U.S. Prepares to Lift Ban on Guantánamo Cases - New York Times

House Vets Panel Leaders Include Just One Vet - Army Times

Court Backs Checks for Federal Contract Workers - Washington Post

For Want of a Strategy - United Press International opinion

Africa

Tunisian Protesters Push for Interim Government Ouster - Voice of America

Tunisian Opposition Pushes for Coalition Changes - New York Times

Tunisia Calms as Government Rejects Old Guard - Associated Press

Tunisia Protesters Demand Change, Prisoners Freed - Reuters

Ousted Tunisian Leader Ben Ali's Family 'Arrested' - BBC News

Arab League Chief Says Tunisia's Unrest May Spread - Voice of America

Tunisia Casts Shadow Over Arab Summit Meeting - New York Times

Split from North Sudan Favored by South - Washington Times

Landslide Swells for Southern Sudan Independence - Voice of America

Sudanese Police Clash With Opposition Protesters - Reuters

Mediator Leaves Ivory Coast with No Breakthrough - Voice of America

Ivory Coast Talks Fail, Gbagbo Rejects Mediator - Reuters

U.N. Votes to Add 2,000 Peacekeepers in Ivory Coast - Washington Post

U.N. Adds 2,000 Troops to Ivory Coast Force - Associated Press

Americas

Mexico's Sinaloa Gang Grows Empire, Defies Crackdown - Reuters

Suspected Mexican Cartel Operative Dies - Associated Press

U.S. Objects to Bolivia Bid to Legalize Coca - Associated Press

Venezuela-Colombian Soap Opera Story - Associated Press

Aristide Says He Is Ready to Return to Haiti, Too - New York Times

With Baby Doc Back in Haiti, Aristide Calls Next - Associated Press

Theories Abound in Haiti Over Why Baby Doc Came Back - Los Angeles Times

'Baby Doc' Duvalier Sued for Torture in Haiti - BBC News

Haiti's 'Baby Doc' Accused of Crimes Against Humanity - Reuters

U.S. Sees Success in Immigration Program for Haitians - New York Times

Asia Pacific

U.S., China Seek New Balance - Wall Street Journal

Obama Pushes Hu on Rights but Stresses Ties to China - New York Times

Obama Presses Chinese Leader on Rights - Washington Post

Obama, China's Hu Agree to Disagree - Los Angeles Times

Subtle Signs of Progress in U.S.-China Relations - New York Times

Hu Says 'a Lot to be Done' on Human Rights - BBC News

Obama Pushes Hu on China's Currency And Rights - Reuters

U.S., China Affirm Military Ties During Hu Visit to Washington - AFPS

Business Leaders Make Cut at State Dinner With Hu - New York Times

Report: China Largely Restores Aircraft Carrier - Associated Press

Hong Kong Authorities Seize Cocaine Bound for Mainland - New York Times

Obama Makes Hu Look Good on Rights - Washington Post editorial

Hu and Obama's Theater of the Absurd - United Press International opinion

The Rise of Chinese Cheneys - New York Times opinion

Shift in Vietnam's Leadership as Party Boss Apologizes - New York Times

Clinton Pledges Support to Burmese Opposition Leader - Washington Post

Europe

Tycoon's Case Hurt Russia, Adviser Says - New York Times

E.U. Confronts Hungary Over Law on News Media - New York Times

Official: E.U. Envoys to Skip Belarus Inauguration - Associated Press

Middle East

U.N.: Middle East Talks Deadlocked - Voice of America

U.S. Diplomacy Suffers a Setback in Lebanon - Associated Press

Saudis Walk Away from Effort to End Lebanon Crisis - Washington Times

Saudi Arabia Ends Lebanon Mediation, Says Country At Risk - Reuters

Hezbollah Stages Coup Drills in Beirut - CNN News

Arab League Chief Says Tunisia's Unrest May Spread - Voice of America

Tunisia Casts Shadow Over Arab Summit Meeting - New York Times

Israeli Human Rights Groups Sound Alarm - Washington Post

U.N. Council Considers Israeli Settlement Issue - Associated Press

Egypt: Economy Key to Mubarak Son Presidency Bid - Associated Press

South Asia

India's Prime Minister Shuffles His Cabinet - New York Times

Sri Lankan President Under Scrutiny for War Crimes - Washington Times

Read more about 20 January SWJ Roundup

Forget about China's missiles and stealth fighter; worry instead about 'non-kinetic' combat

What's got the focus of U.S. naval intelligence? Although the first test flight of China's new J-20 fifth-generation stealth fighter made the news last week, and PACOM commander Admiral Robert Willard recently declared that China's DF-21D medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile has now achieved "initial operational capability," those developments are not the most worrisome to Vice Admiral David Dorsett, the Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Information Dominance. What's Dorsett's greatest concern? It is China's capabilities for non-kinetic combat, its potential to "develop capabilities to dominate in the electromagnetic spectrum," which Dorsett asserts could be "game-changing." Dorsett is preparing for warfare on non-kinetic battlefields, where failure would leave traditional kinetic warriors stuck in the barracks and with no way to fight.

Dorsett revealed his views during a press briefing he delivered on January 5, 2011, after photos of the J-20 appeared but before the aircraft had made its first test flight (h/t Information Dissemination). Initial news stories of Dorsett's briefing focused on his confession that the U.S. intelligence community was surprised at the rate at which Chinese weapon developers delivered the J-20 and DF-21D. The actual transcript of the briefing shines new light on the priorities and concerns of the chief of U.S. naval intelligence.

This excerpt from the briefing sums up Dorsett's concerns:

I've been concerned about Chinese game-changing capabilities in non-kinetic vice kinetic. I am concerned about the [anti-ship] ballistic missile. I am concerned about stealth fighter aircraft. But the area and the technology that I'm most concerned about is China's focus and attention on trying to develop capabilities to dominate in the electromagnetic spectrum, to conduct counter-space capabilities, and clearly to conduct cyber activities. That's a greater concern for me than some of the other hardware-driven or kinetic associated capabilities that they're delivering.

Dorsett repeated this message several times during the briefing.

Launching a guided missile, dropping a precision bomb, or even firing a sniper rifle at an enemy soldier is merely the last of a long sequence of actions that involve reliance on access to the electromagnetic spectrum. U.S. military forces use electro-optical, infrared, and signal sensors to gather information about an enemy's positions, capabilities, and order of battle. It then uses radio transmissions, computer networks, and satellite relays to transmit that information for analysis by intelligence specialists armed with computers. Commanders use their computers and numerous communications networks to transmit their operational orders to warfighters who then rely on radio networks, sensors, and satellites to move against the enemy and into a position to do some kinetic shooting. A military force that can deny its opponent access to the electromagnetic spectrum at critical points along that chain of events will obtain a crucial and possibly decisive advantage.

This is already a well-known feature of modern warfare, but it appears that Dorsett felt it important to restate this reality to his audience. In doing so, he made note of his concerns about China's military strategy. Dorsett implied that China is using its capabilities in electrical and computer engineering and space operations to hold at risk the U.S. military's access to the electromagnetic spectrum at vulnerable points along its intelligence-gathering and command and control processes. By Dorsett's reckoning, Chinese planners have developed a strategy that directs their engineering talent at U.S. vulnerabilities and in a way that both avoids and negates U.S. strengths.

Dorsett is a naval officer with responsibility for preparing the Navy for conflict on the sea, air, and space. Do his views on the need to dominate the electromagnetic spectrum have any relevance for the irregular warfare challenges facing the Army and Marine Corps in Afghanistan?

Coalition forces dominate the electromagnetic spectrum in Afghanistan. But this dominance has yet to win the war. Coalition commanders still don't have enough information about the enemy's locations, order of battle, and current operations. The U.S. is attempting to address this shortfall with more, more human collectors on the ground and more overhead reconnaissance in the form of Reaper drones now increasingly equipped with Gorgon imaging units which produce a tsunami of data. This tidal wave of data now exceeds the ability of human analysts to keep up; commanders now need more computers and more pattern recognition software to make use of the data provided by all of the collectors. It remains to be seen whether the essential data commanders need will be inside the tidal wave or whether intelligence analysts will find a way to cope with the flood. In the meantime, the Taliban may at some point find their best investment to be cyberwarfare worms rather than more ammonium nitrate.

We associate modern war with fiery things that go "boom!" But in Dorsett's next war, much if not all of the skirmishes will be in a non-kinetic electromagnetic realm fought by computer worms, electronic jammers, crashes in outer space, and information deception. It will be a strange war, with the traditional warriors waiting for the non-kinetic prelude to end before they can even travel to the battlefield.