| Small Wars Journal

Here's the video of Monday's Defining Success in Afghanistan panel discussion at American Enterprise Institute. I watched it live and thought it very informative and thought provoking - whether you completely agree with a particular view on the war or not.

The AEI-ISW report, which is the subject of this event, is available here.

About this event via AEI: The US strategy in Afghanistan can succeed, according to a new report by Frederick W. Kagan and Kimberly Kagan released Friday. Mr. Kagan, resident scholar and director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute, and Ms. Kagan, founder and president of the Institute for the Study of War, laid out their main arguments in "Defining Success in Afghanistan" Monday at AEI. AEI's Danielle Pletka underscored that this war is little understood by the American public and that insufficient effort has been made to illuminate the enemy insurgency, the nature of international efforts, and Afghan self-governance. Ms. Kagan gave an overview of the situation on the ground, pointing out that International Security Assistance Force troops inflicted unprecedented damage to al Qaeda in southern Helmand and Kandahar provinces throughout 2010. On the issue of a stable Afghan state, Mr. Kagan argued that longstanding Afghan history and tradition suggest that self-governance can be enduring, noting in particular the indigenous process by which Pashtuns achieve consensus among their tribal leaders. Afghans see the current hypercentralized government as illegitimate because it lacks the proper checks on executive power and is rampant with corruption, fueling the insurgency. While terrorist sanctuaries in Pakistan are of great concern, Mr. Kagan argued that dismantling the local networks used to carry out attacks within Afghanistan will render those sanctuaries less significant. Andrew Exum, who served as a civilian adviser to General Stanley A. McChrystal in Afghanistan, said that a strict counterterrorism mission would be difficult now and would not likely help achieve US objectives, but he raised concerns over the regenerative nature of the enemy. He added that he will withhold judgment on the significance of 2010's military successes until next summer. He also emphasized that the war is fought in phases and that the public needs to be prepared for additional fighting in the future. General Jack Keane compared the war in Iraq with that in Afghanistan and expressed optimism that with the right strategy in place, a new 2014 time frame, and the exceptional leadership of General David Petraeus, there is real hope for success in Afghanistan.

Columbia Journalism Review on Small Wars Journal

Small Wars Journal : The News Frontier Database by Michael Meyer, Columbia Journalism Review.

"Although it's right to call Small Wars Journal a niche publication, doing so misrepresents the site's true influence. "Small wars," as the site uses it, is a kind of catch-all term for counter-insurgency, counter-terrorism, and other pervasive features of the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although SWJ may have the narrow readership of a trade or academic journal, its online presence has allowed it to be a major voice on topics paramount to public interest..."

Much more at Columbia Journalism Review.

Will China have to master third-party COIN?

In the latest issue of The Washington Quarterly, Ely Ratner, an Associate Political Scientist at RAND, asserts that one of the consequences of China's rapid rise in global influence will be increasingly complicated and difficult security challenges for the Chinese state. Ratner believes that most Western analysts who study China's future influence on global security have failed to take these challenges into account.

Ratner contends that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party has made a thorough study of the lessons learned from the experiences of other rising powers in history. He claims that China's foreign policy is attempting to avoid the errors made by these powers. However, Ratner asserts that China's expanding commercial and political connections throughout the world, an unavoidable consequence of China's need for raw materials and export markets, will lead to clashes with states and non-state actors that will acquire grievances against China's decisions, methods, and actions. In addition, China's eagerness to transact with authoritarian regimes otherwise shunned by the West may lead to surprisingly large "blowback" directed against Beijing.

It is highly likely that China will find itself using the same tools -- covert action, unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, proxy wars, third-party counterinsurgency, etc. -- that other past global powers have used to defend their interests in quasi-colonial situations. Ratner recommends that U.S. policymakers take this estimate of China's future security difficulties into account when formulating their own strategies, to including cooperation with China when security interests with the United States overlap.

Click here to read this interesting paper.

Nothing follows.

Counterinsurgency Strategy Not Working in Afghanistan, Critics Say

Counterinsurgency Strategy Not Working in Afghanistan, Critics Say by David Wood, Politics Daily. BLUF: "Experts on Afghanistan and on counterinsurgency, among them active-duty and retired military officers, analysts and academics, are pushing to have the U.S. mission in Afghanistan significantly narrowed in scope. Their message, in brief: Drop the hearts 'n' minds stuff. Go kill the enemy."

12 January SWJ Roundup

Afghanistan

Biden: U.S. Will Stay in Afghanistan as Long as Afghans Want Help - VOA

Biden Promises U.S. Support Beyond 2014 - Washington Post

Biden Assures Karzai of Aid From U.S. Beyond 2014 - New York Times

Biden Backtracks on Afghanistan Troop Pullout Date - Los Angeles Times

Biden Says U.S. will Not Abandon Afghanistan - Associated Press

Biden Meets Karzai, Visits Troops in Afghanistan - AFPS

NATO Officials Confirm Taliban Leaders' Deaths - AFPS

New Radio Program to Help Afghans Learn to Read - Stars and Stripes

Suicide Blast in Afghan Capital Kills Four - BBC News

AfPak's Strategic Blinders - Foreign Policy opinion

Pakistan

Zardari Ally to Succeed Slain Official in Pakistan - New York Times

Pakistan Names Replacement for Slain Governor - Associated Press

Suspected U.S. Missile Strike Kills 4 in Pakistan - Associated Press

Drone Attack in Pakistan Kills Three 'Militants' - BBC News

Iraq

IEDs Killed 21,000 Iraqi Civilians 2005-2010 - USA Today

Iraq and Kuwait Remain at Odds After Shootout - New York Times

Iraqi Fishermen Kill Kuwaiti Coast Guard Officer - Associated Press

Surviving on Scavenging in Iraq - New York Times

Iran

Israel: Only A Threat Of Force Will Halt Iran Nukes - Reuters

Iran Rounds Up Christians in Crackdown - Associated Press

Iran's Spy Chief Denounces Alleged Israeli Plot Against Nuclear Scientists - VOA

Islam

In Realm of Religion, Women Lose Out - New York Times

Korean Peninsula

Gates Demands a Halt of North Korean Tests - Wall Street Journal

Gates: North Korea Becoming Direct Threat to U.S. - AFPS

Gates: N. Korean Ballistic Missiles Pose 'Direct Threat' to U.S. - Washington Post

Gates Warns of North Korea Missile Threat to U.S. - New York Times

Gates: N. Korea 'Direct Threat' to U.S., ICBMs within 5 Years - Stars and Stripes

Chinese President to Call for New Talks on North Korea - Associated Press

N. Korea Slams S. Korea over Defense Ties with Japan - Associated Press

2 Koreas Restore Key Hot Line Despite Tension - Associated Press

WikiLeaks

Assange: WikiLeaks to Speed Release of Leaked Docs - Associated Press

WikiLeaks Founder Said to Fear 'Illegal Rendition' to U.S. - New York Times

Assange's Lawyers Outline Defense for Extradition Hearing - Washington Post

U.S. Department of Defense

Mullen Observes Disconnect Between U.S. Military and Public - Washington Post

Leaders Emphasize Importance of Moral Courage, Candor - AFPS

Plans for Closing Joint Forces Command Likely Ready Next Month - GovExecutive

United States

Groups Rally for Closure of Guantanamo Bay - Washington Post

Judge Turns Down Release of Guantanamo Prisoner - Associated Press

Interagency Coordination: Too Much Sharing? - Baltimore Sun opinion

Australia

Devastating Australian Floodwaters Reach City of Brisbane - New York Times

Australia Floods: Fears Worsen for Brisbane - BBC News

Australia Floods Threaten Queensland Capital, 14 Dead - Los Angeles Times

Floods Enter Brisbane, 20,000 Homes in Danger - Associated Press

Australia Floods Inundate Brisbane, 67 Missing - Reuters

United Nations

American Banks Dropping U.N. Mission Accounts - Associated Press

Africa

More Votes, and More Deaths, in Southern Sudan - New York Times

S. Sudan Reports Clash Between Arabs, Southerners - Associated Press

Ten Killed In Sudan Ambush as South Votes - Reuters

U.S.: Sudan Could be Removed from Terror List This Year - Voice of America

Ivory Coast: With Leader Digging In, Civilians Pay the Price - New York Times

Ivory Coast: Four Dead in Alassane Ouattara Stronghold - BBC News

4 Dead as Forces Raid Ivory Coast Neighborhood - Associated Press

Machete Attacks in Central Nigeria Leave 19 Dead - Associated Press

Niger Seizes Suspects in French Hostage 'Killings' - BBC News

Rights Group says 35 Dead in Tunisia Protests - Voice of America

Tunisia Protests: Fresh Clashes in Tunis - BBC News

Violent Unrest Breaks Out In Tunisian Capital - Reuters

Jobless Youths in Tunisia Riot Using Facebook - Associated Press

Americas

Bit by Bit, a Mexican Police Force Is Eradicated - New York Times

Catholic Leaders Warn of 'Totalitarian' Venezuela - Associated Press

Ship Standoff Strains Jamaica, Honduras Relations - Associated Press

Haitian Home for Street Children Rebuilds - Voice of America

Haiti Still Mired in Post-quake Problems - Los Angeles Times

In Haiti, Hope Is the Last Thing Lost - Wall Street Journal

Haiti: A Year After the Quake, Waiting to Rebuild - Associated Press

Bill Clinton Frustrated at Pace of Haiti Rebuilding - BBC News

OAS Report Offers Way Past Haiti's Political Paralysis - Washington Post editorial

Reclaiming Haiti - Washington Post opinion

Asia Pacific

Gates: Chinese Taking Strategic Dialogue Proposal Seriously - AFPS

Test of Stealth Fighter Clouds Gates Visit to China - New York Times

China: Test Flight Signals Stealth Jet Reached New Stage - Wall Street Journal

China Says Stealth Jet Test-Flight Should Not Scare U.S. - Reuters

Chinese Leaders Surprised by Fighter Test During Gates Visit - Voice of America

Gates Gets Tour of Chinese Nuclear Base - Associated Press

Taiwan Could be Less Hot-Button Issue in Future, Gates Says - AFPS

Japan PM Kan to Replace No. 2 Minister - Reuters

Vietnam's Party Congress Opens Amid Tight Security - Associated Press

Europe

2 Arrested as Spain and France Move Against ETA - New York Times

Jailing the Opposition in Russia and Belarus - Washington Post

Moscow Police Arrest Dozens to Avert Racist Riots - Associated Press

Belarus Opposition Lobbies E.U. to Adopt New Strategy - New York Times

Middle East

Clinton Makes Visit to Yemen, Underscores Social Reform - Washington Post

Clinton Advocates Changes in Yemen - Wall Street Journal

Clinton Backs Yemeni Efforts Against al-Qaida - Voice of America

Clinton in Yemen: Al-Qaeda Militants 'Urgent Concern' - BBC News

Clinton in Yemen to Press Counterterror Efforts - Associated Press

Israel: Netanyahu Rejects Clinton Criticism - Washington Post

Hamas Tells Other Gaza Militants to Stop Attacks - Associated Press

Israel Missile Kills Islamic Jihad Militant In Gaza - Reuters

Lebanese Leader Says No Deal on Hariri Investigation - Associated Press

Saudi Arabia, Syria Fail to Forge Deal Over Lebanon Court - Reuters

Christian Is Killed in Shooting on Train in Egypt - New York Times

Policeman Shoots Christian Dead in Southern Egypt - Associated Press

Read more about 12 January SWJ Roundup

USJFCOM Commander Discusses Disestablishment Recommendation

Commander Discusses Disestablishment Recommendation

Sgt. Josh LeCappelain

USJFCOM Public Affairs

(NORFOLK, Va. - Jan. 11 2011) -- The commander of U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM), Gen. Ray Odierno, issued a statement and answered questions Jan. 10 about the recommendation to disestablish the command.

"We hope that the implementation plan will be finished within the next 30-to-45 days and approved, so we can begin execution. We have been working very carefully on this plan for several months now," Odierno said. "We've had good coordination with the Virginia delegation, led by the governor's office, Sen. (Mark) Warner, Sen. (Jim) Webb, Congressman (Randy) Forbes and many others that are involved in this."

Odierno added that the exchange of ideas and an open dialogue will continue with the delegation moving forward as changes are made, including various capabilities remaining but under other organizations.

"What we've done is attempted to find the core capabilities that should be left behind in Joint Forces Command, which I believe to be joint training, concept development, doctrine development and the role we play in providing forces for all the contingency missions around the world," he added, saying that he believed approximately 50 percent of the workforce in the Hampton Roads area will remain.

Odierno listed four major goals he had during the process, including to improve efficiency and effectiveness of all the critical functions that remain; maintain a strong collaboration with NATO's Allied Command Transformation and the multi-national partners in the Hampton Roads area; sustain joint advocacy and the progress made in jointness; and provide support to the workforce during transition.

Odierno stressed that setting up a program for the DoD civilians employed by USJFCOM to continue working with other government entities was a top priority moving forward. He praised the professionalism of the workforce during this process.

"I've been very impressed with how people have continued to do their jobs. We have such great expertise and capabilities here. It hasn't been brought to my attention specifically, (but) I know that the unknown is bothering people," he said. "That's why we want to get the decision on the implementation done so we can start informing people what is going to happen to them."

When the implementation plan is approved, he will be able to brief the workforce on what to expect and a more specific deadline. He stated that once approved, the disestablishment implementation should take between 12 and 15 months.

A specific plan for what happens to the command's buildings and real estate has not been finalized.

President Barack Obama approved Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' recommendation to disestablish USJFCOM on Jan. 6.

Read more about USJFCOM Commander Discusses Disestablishment Recommendation

11 January SWJ Roundup

Afghanistan

Biden to Assess Progress in Afghanistan - American Forces Press Service

Biden Visits Training Center for Afghan Forces - Associated Press

U.S., Afghan Officials Put Faith in Reintegration Program - Stars and Stripes

Afghan Reconstruction Watchdog Resigns Amid Pressure - Washington Post

Official to Leave Afghan Audit Post - Wall Street Journal

Suicide Bombing Kills 3 in Afghanistan - Los Angeles Times

Afghan, Coalition Forces Kill, Detain Insurgents - American Forces Press Service

NATO Airstrike Kills 3 Police Officers in Afghanistan- New York Times

Pakistan

Pakistan Faces a Divide of Age on Muslim Law - New York Times

Qadri Pleads Guilty to Pakistan Slaying - Washington Post

Rolling Up Religious Radicals - Washington Times opinion

Iran

Clinton Asks Arabs to Oppose Iran Nukes - Washington Post

Clinton Says Curbs Slow Iran Program - Wall Street Journal

U.S. Says Sanctions Hurt Iran Nuclear Program - New York Times

Iran Rights Lawyer Sentenced to 11 Years - Washington Post

Iran Sentences Human Rights Lawyer to 11 Years in Jail - New York Times

Iran Human Rights Lawyer's Sentence Criticized - Los Angeles Times

Iran's Intelligence Ministry Says Arrested Spies Linked to Israel - Washington Post

Iran Says 10 Suspected Killers Linked to Mossad - Associated Press

Russia Says Considering Iran Nuclear Sites Visit Offer - Reuters

Korean Peninsula

Gates: North Korea Will Pose Direct Threat to U.S. - Associated Press

U.S. Sees North Korea Becoming Direct Threat - Reuters

Japan and S. Korea Hold First Military Talks in Nearly 2 Years - Washington Post

North Korea Asks South for Dialogue - New York Times

North Korea Foreign Trade Falls Sharply - Los Angeles Times

N. Korea Accuses S. Koreans of Hacking Into Website - Associated Press

North Korea Border Guards Kill Five Defectors to China - Reuters

WikiLeaks

Resisting Extradition, Julian Assange Returns To Court - New York Times

WikiLeaks Founder Back in Court Over Extradition - Associated Press

Technology

New Generation of Unmanned Spy Planes is Being Tested - Los Angeles Times

U.S. Department of Defense

Chairman Calls for Military Self-examination - American Forces Press Service

Mullen Reminds Military Ldrs to Stay Professional, Apolitical - Stars and Stripes

Study: Women Shortchanged on Combat-stress Help - Virginian-Pilot

Defense Official Outlines Pay Freeze Details - American Forces Press Service

Gay Activists Press "Don't Ask" Court Challenge - Reuters

United States

`Band of Brothers' Inspiration Winters Dies at 92 - Associated Press

Austalia

Australia's Third-Largest City at Risk From Floods - New York Times

Deadly Australian Floods Spark Evacuations In Brisbane - Reuters

Africa

U.S.: Sudan Referendum 'Off to a Very, Very Good Start' - Voice of America

Voting Is Peaceful in South Sudan Despite Border Clashes - New York Times

Voting Continues in South Sudanese Referendum - Voice of America

Sudan Referendum to Meet Required Turnout - Reuters

Clashes Leave at Least 30 Dead in Volatile Region of Sudan - Los Angeles Times

Police Killed in Abyei During South Sudan Referendum - BBC News

10 Southerners Reported Killed in New Sudan Attack - Associated Press

Unity Government Is Possible, Ivory Coast Envoy Says - New York Times

Ivory Coast Unity Cabinet Possible, Says U.N. Ambassador - BBC News

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo Rebuffs Latest Mediator - Associated Press

Former Nigerian President Optimistic About Ivory Coast Mediation - VOA

Nigerian City of Jos Becomes Ghost Town After Clashes - BBC News

France Says Niger Frenchmen 'Killed in Cold Blood' - BBC News

Amid Rioting, Tunisia Closes Universities and Schools - New York Times

Americas

At Least 3 Drug Groups Fighting for Control in Acapulco - Los Angeles Times

Man Slain on Acapulco Highway; 31 Dead in 4 Days - Associated Press

Mexico Detains 5 in Kidnappings of CentAm Migrants - Associated Press

Costa Rica Takes Nicaragua Dispute to U.N. Court - Associated Press

A Symbol of Hope for Haiti, a Landmark Again Stands Tall - New York Times

After Massive Aid, Haitians Feel Stuck in Poverty - Washington Post

OAS to Give Haiti Presidential Election Verdict - BBC News

Observers Wait for Haiti President to Take Report - Associated Press

OAS Experts Challenge Haiti Election Result - Reuters

Asia Pacific

U.S., China Pledge to Improve Military Cooperation - Los Angeles Times

Chinese Defense Chief Tepid to Gates - Washington Post

China Spurns Strategic Security Talks with U.S. - Washington Times

China's Hu Praises Renewed Military Ties With U.S. - Associated Press

China Reportedly Tests Stealth Fighter - New York Times

China Conducts First Test-flight of Stealth Plane - BBC News

Gates: China's Hu Confirms Stealth Jet Test-Flight - Reuters

HRW: China Fails on Human Rights Plan - Associated Press

Cambodia Charges Two Detained Thais With Spying - Reuters

Central Asia

Ethnic Clash Probe Blames Uzbek Leaders - Associated Press

Kazakhs Campaign to Keep President Till 2020 - Associated Press

Europe

China's Financial Clout Felt in Europe - Washington Post

ETA Separatists Declare Oermanent Cease-fire with Spain - Los Angeles Times

Spain's PM Rejects ETA Cease-Fire - Voice of America

Spain Calls Basque Declaration Insufficient - New York Times

Spain: 2 Suspected ETA Members Arrested - Associated Press

Middle East

Israel's Netanyahu Defends East Jerusalem Settlement - Voice of America

Israel: Strains Emerge Between Netanyahu, Foreign Minister - Associated Press

Gazan Reported Killed by Israeli Forces - New York Times

Ties Make Palestinian State a S. American Priority - Associated Press

Clinton in Yemen on Surprise Visit - Wall Street Journal

Clinton In Yemen For First U.S. Sec State Visit In 20 Yrs - Reuters

South Asia

China Denies Armed Soldiers Crossed Into India - Associated Press

Sri Lanka Flood Toll Rises to 13; 120,000 Homeless - Associated Press

Read more about 11 January SWJ Roundup

Sudanese Crossroads

Sudanese Crossroads by Caroline Glick of the Jerusalem Post. BLUF: "With the West openly supporting southern Sudanese independence, a new war's consequences will not be limited to Sudan itself." Ms. Glick's op-ed piece cites "Southern Sudan: The Four Theses" by LTC Thomas Talley at Small Wars Journal.

U.S. Navy Confronting Irregular Challenges Community of Interest

The Department of the Navy recently released their Confronting Irregular Challenges Community of Interest (CIC COI) Charter, it can be found here. The Charter is a step forward in implementing the U.S. Navy Vision for Confronting Irregular Challenges and promoting an increased understanding in regards to confronting irregular challenges. The Charter also designates the CIC COI as the authority responsible for the synchronization of CIC-related initiatives within the Navy and its external partners.

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