| Small Wars Journal

States of Conflict: An Update -- New York Times op-chart by Ian Livingston, Heather Messera, Michael O'Hanlon and Amy Unikewicz. "Leaving aside all the new conflicts in the Middle East, how are our nation's longstanding struggles in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan going?" View the op-chart to find out.

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Embedding with the Afghan National Army in Zabul

CAAT in Support of Transition: Embedding with the Afghan National Army in Zabul by the Counterinsurgency Advisory & Assistance Team, International Security Assistance Force, is a March 2011 report that is highly recommended reading for those in country (or out of) and able to access it through official channels. Our apologies here at SWJ for removing it as the copy we received, while marked unclassified and with no distribution caveats / restrictions, had not yet been approved for public release.

10 April SWJ Roundup (Updated)

Afghanistan

Taliban Seen Stirring Mob to Violence - New York Times

High-tech Tools and Human Errors - Los Angeles Times

Petraeus Says al-Qaida Not on Rise in Afghanistan - Associated Press

Destroying Booby-trapped Towns to Save Them - Associated Press

Roadside Bomb in West Kills 3 Tribal Elders - Associated Press

Pakistan

U.S.-Pakistan Intelligence Operations Frozen Since January - Reuters

Pakistan Fighting Kills '50 Militants', 4 Soldiers - Agence France-Presse

7 Militants Killed in Swat Valley - Associated Press

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Qaddafi Forces Reach Gates of Key Rebel-Held City - New York Times

Shelling in East Libya Forces Rebel Retreat - Voice of America

Street Battle Rages for Ajdabiya - BBC News

Libyan Rebels Face Military Surge on Key Outpost - Associated Press

Increased NATO Strikes Help Rebels Beat Misrata Assault - Reuters

RAF Tornados Destroy Seven Libyan Tanks - BBC News

Libya Says Shoots Down 2 Rebel Helicopters - Associated Press

Humanitarian Aid Finally Reaches Libyan Port of Misrata - Voice of America

Young Libyans Laying Groundwork for Civil Society - Los Angeles Times

Egypt

Hundreds Return to Cairo's Tahrir Square After Bloody Clashes - VOA

Protesters Defy Military, Return to Tahrir Square - Washington Post

2 Protesters Killed in Egypt's Tahrir Square - New York Times

Army Crackdown in Cairo's Tahrir Square - BBC News

Anger Flares at Egypt Army for Brutal Protest Raid - Associated Press

Army 'Ready to Use Force' to Clear Cairo Square - Reuters

Violent Army Crackdown Shocks Egyptians - Los Angeles Times

Army to Replace Mubarak-era Governors - BBC News

Egypt's 'Steel King' Swept From His Throne - Washington Post

Prosecutor Alleges Schemes by Mubarak Family - Washington Post

Yemen

Rising Worry over al-Qaeda in Yemen - Washington Post

Security Forces Open Fire on Protesters in Yemen - New York Times

Tens of Thousands of Protesters Rally - Voice of America

Hundreds Injured in Sanaa Protests - BBC News

Yemenis Demanding Leader's Ouster Shot in 2 Cities - Associated Press

One Dead, Dozens Hurt in Latest Yemen Unrest - Reuters

Syria

As Syrians Mourn Slain Protesters, Another Killed - Los Angeles Times

Syrian Forces Open Fire on Demonstrators in 2 Cities - Associated Press

Syrian Forces Fire at Mourners After Mass Funeral - Reuters

Syrian Rights Group Says 26 Killed in Deraa - Reuters

Iraq

Iraqis Protest U.S. After Comments From Gates - New York Times

Cleric Vows to Reactivate Militia if U.S. Forces Stay - Voice of America

Sadr Threatens Action if U.S. Forces Remain - Associated Press

Iran

Ahmadinejad Demotes Top Advisor - Los Angeles Times

Iran Reloading Fuel at Bushehr Nuclear Plant - Voice of America

Iran Confirms Factory Producing Centrifuge Parts - Associated Press

Iran Praises Iraq for Deadly Raid on Exile Group - Associated Press

Bahrain

Prominent Human Rights Activist Arrested in Bahrain - Voice of America

Bahrain Human Rights Activist 'Arrested, Beaten Up' - Reuters

2 Opposition Supporters Die in Police Custody - Associated Press

Israel / Palestinians

Israel 'will Observe Gaza Truce if Hamas Stops Firing' - BBC News

Barak Says Israel Open to Gaza Ceasefire With Hamas - Reuters

Violence Flares on the Israel-Gaza Border - Voice of America

Violence Rises as Israel and Hamas Trade Blows - New York Times

Death Toll Mounts as Israel Strikes Again at Gaza - BBC News

Israel Pounds Hamas Targets in Gaza for Third Day - Associated Press

Gaza-Israel Violence Rages, Five Militants Killed - Reuters

Mortars, Rocket Hit Israel, No Injuries - Associated Press

Israel Says Killed Hamas Man Involved in Soldier Kidnap - Reuters

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Latest Developments in Arab World's Unrest - Associated Press

U.S. Department of Defense

Petraeus Says Not Sure What Next Post Will Be - Associated Press

Army to Transfer Just One Brigade from Germany- Stars and Stripes

United States

Farrakhan Using Libyan Crisis to Bolster Nation of Islam - New York Times

Reputed Counter-terrorism Expert Pleads Guilty - Army Times

Africa

French Forces Attacked in Ivory Coast - Voice of America

Gbagbo Loyalists Regain Ground in Ivory Coast - New York Times

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Troops 'Hit' Ouattara Hotel HQ - BBC News

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Forces Regain Ground in Abidjan - BBC News

U.S. Envoy to Sudan: Abyei Conflict Could Spark War - Associated Press

Nigeria Counting Votes From Parliamentary Elections - Voice of America

Nigeria: Vote Counting Begins after Parliamentary Polls - BBC News

Facing Violence, Nigerians Vote - Associated Press

Nigeria Counts Votes From Delayed Poll - Reuters

Opposite Ends of Africa, Fear and Confidence in Markets - New York Times

Americas

Mexican Drug Cartels Target Children - Washington Post

Search Goes On for Mass Graves in Northern Mexico - Associated Press

Ex-Military Officer Jolts Peru Presidential Race - New York Times

Peru's Presidential Election Unpredictable - Associated Press

Honduras: Army to Support Police in Fighting Drugs - Associated Press

Cuba Anger at U.S. Posada Carriles Verdict - BBC News

Cuba Criticizes Ruling in Ex-CIA Agent's Case - Associated Press

New Entrepreneurs in Cuba Get Mixed Results - Associated Press

Asia Pacific

Japan Orders Summer Energy Cutbacks - Washington Post

Japan Ready to Stop Pumping Radioactive Water Into Sea - Reuters

End to Japan Nuke Crisis is Years, Fortune Away - Associated Press

China Tells U.S.: Stop Preaching on Human Rights - BBC News

Beijing Police Halt House Church Service - Associated Press

U.S. Senator Calls For Burma-North Korea Probe - Voice of America

Blast Hits Hostel in Southern Philippine Province - Associated Press

Filipino Troops Defuse 3rd Bomb After Hostel Blast - Associated Press

Central Asia

In Kazakhstan, a Good Old-Fashioned Sham Election - New York Times

Europe

61 Arrested over Banned Paris Muslim Veil Protest - Associated Press

British Army Defuses 500-pound Van Bomb in Ulster - Associated Press

Belarus's Economy Pushed to Brink - Washington Post

Thousands Rally Against Basque Group ETA in Spain - Associated Press

Crew Member Kills Officer During Tour ÃÂ¾f British Sub - New York Times

Senior Officer Killed in U.K. Nuclear Sub Shooting - Associated Press

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Win, Learn, Focus, Adapt, Win Again

The scrimmage should be as hard as the game.

By General Martin E. Dempsey, US Army

"This compilation of writings by General Dempsey—six articles published in ARMY magazine from October 2010 to March 2011, plus the speech he delivered at AUSA's 2011 Winter Symposium in February—captures the mutual focus of the Chief and his TRADOC commander on what our Army must do to shape itself for the future. There is recognition that our Army is always a force in transition, that it will expand and contract, train and deploy, and perpetually modify its Tables of Organization and Equipment. But the primary imperative for our leaders must be to care for the Soldiers and families who have endured so much for the country they love."

"That said, the Army and its leadership must win, learn, focus, adapt and win again—win the conflicts they face, learn better and faster than their enemies, focus on the fundamentals, adapt as an institutional imperative and, when called upon, win again."

General Gordon R. Sullivan, US Army Retired

President, Association of the United States Army

Win, Learn, Focus, Adapt, Win Again

Saturday Was Made For Försvarsmakten Reklamfilm 1

H/T Starbuck

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DOD Releases Unified Command Plan 2011

The Department of Defense released today the updated the Unified Command Plan (UCP), a key strategic document that establishes the missions, responsibilities, and geographic areas of responsibility for commanders of combatant commands. Unified Command Plan 2011, signed by the President on April 6, assigns several new missions to the combatant commanders.

Every two years, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is required to review the missions, responsibilities, and geographical boundaries of each combatant command and recommend to the President, through the Secretary of Defense, any changes that may be necessary. As in past years, the 2011 review process included the combatant commanders, service chiefs and DoD leadership.

A revised map of the combatant commanders' areas of responsibilities can be found at http://www.defense.gov/news/d20110408map.pdf . Significant changes made by UCP 2011 include:

- Shifting areas of responsibilities boundaries in the Arctic region to leverage long-standing relationships and improve unity of effort. As a result of this realignment, responsibility for the Arctic region is now shared between USEUCOM and USNORTHCOM rather than USEUCOM, USNORTHCOM and USPACOM as directed in previous UCPs.
- Giving USNORTHCOM responsibility to advocate for Arctic capabilities.
- Codifying the President's approval to disestablish U.S. Joint Forces Command.
- Expanding U.S. Strategic Command's responsibility for combating weapons of mass destruction and developing Global Missile Defense Concept of Operations.
- Giving U.S. Transportation Command responsibility for synchronizing planning of global distribution operations.

UCP 2011 continues to support U.S. defense security commitments around the world while improving military responsiveness to emerging crises.

9 April SWJ Roundup

Afghanistan

Meanwhile, in the War in Afghanistan... - Wall Street Journal

Security Improves in Afghanistan's Paktika Province - AFPS

ISAF Operations Roundup - AFPS

Pakistan

Boy Tells Police of Suicide Bombing School - CNN News

Teen Says 400 Suicide Bombers in Training - Agence France-Presse

Pakistani Boy Apologizes for Suicide Mission - Associated Press

Libya / Operation Odyssey Dawn

Rebel Frustration with NATO Mounts - Christian Science Monitor

NATO Regrets Deadly Strike on Libya Rebels - Washington Post

NATO Expresses Regret for Airstrike - New York Times

Rebels' Use of Tanks May Have Triggered Airstrike - Washington Post

Libyan Rebels Forgiving of NATO Error - Los Angeles Times

NATO, Libya Rebels Try to Mend Fences - Wall Street Journal

Up to the Job? NATO Criticized over Libya Campaign - Associated Press

E.U. Ready for Misrata Mission With U.N. Backing - Associated Press

Rebels Repel Assault on Misrata, Five Dead - Reuters

African Leaders Set for Key Visit - BBC News

U.S. Extends Sanctions to 5 More Libyan Officials - Associated Press

Democrat Says Libya Costs Run Much Higher - Washington Times

Interactive: The Libyan Rebellion - New York Times

Keeping Ahead of Qaddafi - New York Times editorial

Egypt

Muslim Brotherhood Regaining Footing - Washington Post

Hero of Revolution, Military Now Faces Critics - New York Times

Egypt's Army Now Subject of Criticism - Christian Science Monitor

Army Beats Protesters While Dispersing Cairo Rally - Associated Press

Egyptians Protest, Defy Army Bid to Disperse Them - Reuters

Algeria

In Algeria, a Chill in the Arab Spring - Washington Post

Yemen

Yemen's Saleh Again Rejects Move to Replace Him - Reuters

Demonstrators, Security Forces Clash in Yemen - Voice of America

Tens of Thousands Protest in Yemen - New York Times

Deadly Clash During Protest in Taiz - BBC News

Regime Targeted Yemen General, Cable Says - Washington Post

In Yemen, Hardly a Revolution - New York Times opinion

Syria

Syrian Protesters Met with Gunfire - Los Angeles Times

Casualties Rise in Syria During Anti-Government Protests - VOA

Syrian Protests Largest and Bloodiest to Date - New York Times

Syrian City of Deraa Hit by Deadly Clashes - BBC News

Syrian Protests Turn Deadly; 32 Reported Killed - Associated Press

Pro-Democracy Protests Sweep Syria, 22 Killed - Reuters

Syrian Activists Call for Daily Protests - Associated Press

Spreading Revolution in Syria - Christian Science Monitor

Activists Distribute Video of Protests - New York Times

Iraq

Gates: Clock Ticking on Troop Request - Washington Post

Gates Wraps Up Iraq Visit, Arrives in UAE - AFPS

Cleric Threatens Action if U.S. Forces Remain - Associated Press

Iraq Forces Attack Iranian Exiles - BBC News

At Least 10 Iranian Exiles Killed in Clashes in Iraq - Reuters

U.N.: Iraq's Leaders Must Address Protest Demands - Associated Press

Iran

Bushehr Nuclear Plant to Open With International Oversight - VOA

Russia Begins Refuelling Iran Nuclear Plant - Agence France-Presse

Bushehr Nuclear Plant Located in Earthquake-Prone Iran - VOA

Bahrain

Editor Silenced, With Help of Unreliable Sources - New York Times

Bahrain Police Detain, Beat Rights Activist - Associated Press

Israel / Palestinians

9 Palestinians Die as Israel Hits Gaza in Retaliation - New York Times

Israel Kills 12 Amid Cross-border Exchanges - BBC News

Gaza Fighting Continues for Third Day - Associated Press

Gaza-Israel Violence Rages on, 4 Militants Killed - Reuters

Israel Strikes Hard in Gaza After School Bus Hit - Associated Press

Middle East / North Africa Unrest

Demonstrations Sweep Middle East - Washington Post

Interactive: Middle East, North Africa in Turmoil - Washington Post

Uprisings Show Power of the Weak - Washington Post opinion

U.S. Department of Defense

Gates: Services Must Balance Old, New Capabilities - AFPS

DOD Announces U.S. Force Posture Revision in Europe - DOD Press Release

DOD Officials Detail Closure Effects, Plans - AFPS

Quality of U.S. Military Recruits Rises - USA Today

U.S. Department of State

U.S. Human Rights Report Raps China, Iran, Belarus - Voice of America

State Issues Annual Human Rights Report - Washington Post

Rights Abuses Extend Across Middle East, Report Says - New York Times

U.S. Warns of Gov'ts Trying to Control the Internet - Associated Press

United States

Congress Agrees to Deal, Stopgap Funding - Washington Post

Deal at Last Minute Averts Shutdown - New York Times

Last-Minute Deal Averts Shutdown - Wall Street Journal

Last-minute Deal Averts Government Shutdown - Los Angeles Times

Health System Unprepared for Nuclear Emergency - Washington Post

NYC's Ambitious Dirty-bomb Defenses Put to Test - Associated Press

Man Arrested in NY Times Square Case Reaches Deal - Associated Press

'Witness Issues' May Derail CIA Leak Trial - Associated Press

Report Says Coast Guard Was Unprepared for Spill - New York Times

Even at Gitmo, 9/11 Trial Can Serve Justice - Washington Post opinion

Why Humanitarian Wars Can Go So Wrong - Washington Post opinion

When to Use Military Might - Washington Post opinion

Africa

Tentative Stability Shaken in Ivory Coast - New York Times

Ivory Coast: Ouattara Blockades Gbagbo, U.N. Finds Massacre Victims - VOA

Ivory Coast: Gbagbo Forces Make Gains, Says U.N. - BBC News

Ivory Coast's Gbagbo Regains Ground - Reuters

U.N. Says Ivory Coast Negotiation Was a 'Trick' - Associated Press

Ivory Coast Strongman Defiant From Within Bunker - Associated Press

Allies of Zimbabwe's President Push for Quick Vote - New York Times

Bomb Attacks Mar Nigeria Election - BBC News

Nigerian Poll Overshadowed by Violence and Chaos - Reuters

Bomb Attack Kills 8 in Nigeria Ahead of Vote - Associated Press

3 More Kenyan Officials Face International Charges - New York Times

Americas

Mexico's Plan to Crack Down on Drug Money - Christian Science Monitor

13 More Corpses in Mexico's North - Washington Post

72 Bodies at Burial Site as Mexicans Seek Missing - Associated Press

Obama: Free Trade Agreement a 'Win-Win' for U.S., Colombia - VOA

Peru Poll: Leftist Ahead in Presidential Race - Associated Press

Leftist Humala Woos Ethnic Vote, Widens Lead in Peru - Reuters

Asia Pacific

Lack of Data Heightens Japan's Nuclear Crisis - New York Times

Japanese Perplexed by Slow Quake Response - Los Angeles Times

'Decade' to Shut Down Japan Plant - BBC News

Japan to Pump Radioactive Water Into Sea Until Sunday - Reuters

Many Still Without Power After Japan Aftershock - Associated Press

Marine Nuclear Rescue Team Stands Ready in Japan - Associated Press

Interactive: Japan's Nuclear Emergency - Washington Post

Shake-Up Could Affect Tone of U.S. Policy on China - New York Times

North Korea Threatens South Over Mountain Tours - Associated Press

Europe

Russian Official Proposes Web Bans - Washington Post

Russians Riled by Attacks on Blogging Service - New York Times

Mideast Moment in Russia? - Washington Post opinion

Italy and France Agree on North Africa Migrant Patrol - BBC News

Worries on Europe's 'Debt Trap' - New York Times

N. Ireland Police Arrest 3rd Man Over Cop's Killing - Associated Press

South Asia

Indian Gov't Orders Strong Anti-Graft Legislation - Associated Press

Indian Hunger Striker Ends Fast - BBC News

Mosque Blast Kills Kashmir Cleric - BBC News

Kashmir Shuts Against Religious Leader's Killing - Associated Press

Fears for Sri Lanka 'Disappeared' - BBC News

Read more about 9 April SWJ Roundup

This Week at War: Waiting for the Intermission

Who will win the Libyan stalemate?

Here is the latest edition of my column at Foreign Policy:

Topics include:

1) How to play the stalemate in Libya

2) Afghan skeptics prepare to take over in Washington

How to play the stalemate in Libya

This week, Libya's rebels attempted to storm Brega, the oil port about 200 kilometers south of Benghazi. The attack failed, making it even more clear that the conflict has now become a stalemate, a conclusion reached by Gen. Carter Ham who until recently was commander of the Libyan operation. The rebels, lacking military training, battlefield leadership, or many armored vehicles, are unable to advance along the coast road toward Tripoli. But neither can Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi's troops emerge from the built-up areas where they are hiding from coalition air power. The question now, for both sides, is how best to play the resulting standoff.

Qaddafi's field commanders must be pleased with how well they have managed to neutralize the advantage the coalition's air supremacy previously afforded the rebels. Qaddafi's forces have either abandoned their military vehicles or kept them in urban areas, protected from air strikes by human shields. Their use of pick-up trucks and other civilian vehicles has confused the coalition pilots attempting to provide air support for the rebels; an accidental NATO missile attack on a rebel convoy outside of Brega on April 7 killed 13 rebel fighters. It was the third such misguided air attack in the past week. NATO air commanders are now caught between increasingly strident rebel demands for air support and fears that either more errant strikes or civilian bombing deaths will cripple support for the air campaign. The result is likely to be a further wind-down in military operations by all sides.

With a large advantage in ground combat power, Qaddafi would seem to be the least interested in a de facto ceasefire. However, coalition air power prevents his forces from attempting a partly conventional military attack into open terrain. With the military situation frozen, Qaddafi will look for ways to extend his ability to hold out against international pressure. We should expect a media campaign explaining how the embargo against his regime is impoverishing the population in the western part of the country. A plea by Qaddafi to resume oil sales would follow.

A ceasefire might benefit the rebels the most. They desperately need a break from the fighting in order to conduct basic military training, select competent battlefield leaders, and expand their diplomatic outreach to the international community. A break will also allow rebel commanders to work out better procedures for coordinating coalition air power with rebel ground operations.

It is the Obama administration that might be most at risk from a prolonged stalemate in Libya. Even though the United States has pulled strike aircraft from duty over Libya, the impression remains that the U.S. is "at war" against Qaddafi. The Obama administration is being held responsible for the outcome of the conflict while contributing less and less to the shaping of that outcome. As Qaddafi continues to hold on in defiance of Obama's stated goals, observers will question the administration's strategy. Obama and his advisers believe that pulling back U.S. forces reduces the cost and risk to the United States. What remains to be seen is whether there will be a commensurate pullback in the responsibility assigned to the U.S. for how Libya turns out.

Afghan skeptics prepare to take over in Washington

A March 30th Washington Post article discussed the battle lines forming inside the Obama administration over the rate at which U.S. military forces will begin exiting Afghanistan. According to three senior administration officials, Obama made it clear at a recent monthly Afghanistan review meeting "that he wants a meaningful drawdown to start in July." The options under preliminary discussion include a tiny symbolic withdrawal, the removal of some rear-echelon support troops, and a "heavy" option of three combat battalions -- about 3,000 of the nearly 100,000 U.S. soldiers currently deployed -- taken from several locations. Gen. David Petraeus, the commander in Afghanistan, has yet to submit his recommendations.

Obama should not be surprised if his military chain of command is resisting his desire for a more "meaningful drawdown." As Bob Woodward made clear in Obama's Wars, his chronicle of the 2009 Afghan surge decision, it was Petraeus, Defense Secretary Gates, and Joint Chiefs Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen who were the most vociferous supporters of a larger and longer military commitment in Afghanistan. According to Woodward, this "Afghan Surge Faction" prepared only one option for Obama in 2009. It should be no surprise if this group is similarly presenting only token reductions for this summer.

For Obama, 2011 will be dramatically different than 2009. This time, if Obama doesn't like the military advice he is receiving, he is in a position to simply change the players in the military chain of command. Gates's retirement is imminent, as is Mullen's by September. Add to that the likelihood of rotating Petraeus out of Kabul and into another assignment.

Trial balloons are already floating. The most critical will be Gates's replacement. Obama would logically make this selection first, so the prospective new Defense Secretary could weigh in on the choice for Mullen's replacement as Joint Chiefs Chairman. According to the Washington Post, Leon Panetta, the current CIA director, may be the front runner. He has navigated two years at CIA without running aground. He is a veteran on Capitol Hill, a crucial quality for a Defense Secretary. Most importantly for Obama's near-term purposes, Panetta shares the president's skepticism about the mission in Afghanistan, according to Woodward's account.

And who will replace Panetta at CIA? According to NPR, the leading candidate is Petraeus, who is said to be —to accept the job. For Obama, putting Petraeus at CIA would remove him from the military chain of command while also keeping him inside the government in a quiet position. Promoting Marine Gen. James Cartwright from Vice Chairman to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs would place another Afghan surge skeptic into the top military office.

The first withdrawal this summer from Afghanistan may very well end up being largely symbolic. But dramatic changes are in store for Obama's military team. All of the members of the "Afghan Surge Faction" will be gone by the autumn, almost certainly to be replaced by skeptics of the current policy. After a slow start, we should expect the withdrawal of combat units from Afghanistan to accelerate next winter -- just in time for the 2012 presidential election campaign.

The Flexibility of Conventional Warfare

The Flexibility of Conventional Warfare by Adam Elkus at Huffington Post. BLUF: "For thinkers looking at the future of warfare, Libya's "Toyota warfare" is an important data point suggesting a future in which conventional operations and skills remain important. However, these conventional operations will not be really recognizable to most Fulda Gap-fed soldiers and military analysts. Conventional operations are far more flexible in form than most think."

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